Patterico's Pontifications

5/13/2021

Golden State Gab

Filed under: General — Dana @ 10:24 am



[guest post by Dana]

[Ed. While California news is usually JVW’s bailiwick, he is currently sailing the seven seas on the Patterico yacht like the international tycoon that he is…so here goes.]

Interestingly, and perhaps coincidentally, Gov. Newsom, who is facing a recall, has announced that he is planning on a “recall refund” (as Republicans are calling it):

A year after slashing spending to fill a record-breaking deficit spurred by the pandemic, California Gov. Gavin Newsom is eyeing a massive surplus and hopes to send out a second, larger round of stimulus checks to residents.

California’s progressive tax structure means the state budget suffered early in the pandemic but quickly rebounded, bolstered by capital gains taxes and high-income earners who’ve seen their wealth grow over the past year.

Newsom, who will likely face a recall election later this year, announced a plan to send billions of dollars back to taxpayers. If approved, the state would give $600 checks to workers who earn up to $75,000 annually, with $500 bonuses for tax filers with dependents and undocumented families.

Newsom said 80% of the state’s workers and two-thirds of all residents would benefit from the plan.

Newsom said his stimulus proposal, which totals just under $12 billion in relief, goes “well above and beyond what is projected to be required” by the law. He claimed it is “the largest tax relief year-over-year in U.S. history as well, not just California history.”

The announcement comes just weeks after the California Secretary of State confirmed that there are more than enough valid signatures for a recall election of the governor.

Recent polling shows support for Newsom has inched up:

A growing number of Californians oppose the forthcoming recall of Gavin Newsom, according to a survey released Tuesday morning, a boost for the sitting governor who has suffered a series of political blows over the past year.

Roughly 49 percent said they were against removing Newsom, a tick higher than the 45 percent who responded similarly in January.

The poll found that only 36 percent of the registered voters queried supported recalling Newsom, virtually unchanged from the prior survey. Both were conducted by the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies and co-sponsored by the Los Angeles Times.

Opposition to the recall has grown as Newsom recovers politically somewhat and as Democrats begin to take more seriously the first gubernatorial recall since 2003 when former Gov. Gray Davis was removed in favor of Arnold Schwarzenegger.

The state’s budget has also been buoyed by its pandemic-resistant tech sector, highly progressive tax structure and an approximately $26 billion windfall from the recent federal relief package.

With that, the 120-day extension of the original signature-gathering deadline granted by a judge is being challenged as a violation of the California constitution. Organizers claimed that the extension was necessary because of the COVID-19 pandemic (limiting the ability to gather signatures):

A Sacramento-area resident has challenged the legitimacy of the recall drive against Gov. Gavin Newsom, telling a state appellate court that a Superior Court judge violated the California constitution when he gave recall proponents more time to gather voter signatures.

The appeal, filed Monday with the 3rd District Court of Appeals in San Francisco, said Sacramento County Superior Court Judge James Arguelles violated a voter-approved constitutional amendment that limits signature gathering to 160 days to qualify an initiative for the ballot.

The filing asks the justices to block the recall until the court rules on the issue.

The law has been on the books for nearly 45 years as Proposition 14 of 1976.

Per the governor, because of the state’s high vaccination rate and low Covid-19 infection rate, California will reopen on June 15. When asked about whether there will continue to be mask requirements, Newsom answered “no”:

So far, no Democrats have announced that they will be running in the special election. Rather they appear to have coalesced around the sitting governor. It looks like it’s all coming together for Newsom.

–Dana

10 Responses to “Golden State Gab”

  1. Hello.

    Dana (fd537d)

  2. From the same article linked above:

    ……
    The poll also shows little voter interest for Republican Caitlyn Jenner’s candidacy at this point. Just 6 percent of respondents said they supported the idea of the former Olympic gold medalist-turned-reality star replacing Newsom.

    The survey was conducted after Jenner officially jumped into the crowded field on April 24, though the first-time candidate laid low in the days after that initial buzz and has recently emerged for two national TV interviews — on Fox News and CNN, respectively.

    By contrast, two other major Republican candidates, former San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer and businessman John Cox — Newsom’s 2018 general election opponent — each had support from roughly one-fifth to replace the sitting governor.

    ………
    The article is incorrect when it described Caitlyn Jenner as “former Olympic gold medalist.” Last time I checked the record books and video it was Bruce Jenner who won the gold.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  3. That $600 will help the people trying to flee California. Try pricing a U-Haul rental from California to Utah, and then one from Utah to California. The difference is shocking.

    norcal (696d0b)

  4. The poll also shows little voter interest for Republican Caitlyn Jenner’s candidacy at this point. Just 6 percent of respondents said they supported the idea of the former Olympic gold medalist-turned-reality star replacing Newsom.

    More proof, as if it were needed, of the superior intelligence of this state’s residents.

    Jenner recently told CNN that he didn’t vote in the 2020 election, apparently unaware that voting records are public information.

    Dave (1542be)

  5. Caitlyn is rather newfangled name, and it doesn’t fit a woman in her 60s. She was already a novelty at 6’2″. Why make it worse?

    norcal (4131e1)

  6. I’m not sure how there is a budget surplus in California when they still have massive holes in their pension system.

    Xmas (ca7d62)

  7. Future pension obligations affect future budgets.

    With unfunded pensions, it’s a real problem if a state loses GDP, or a private company shrinks.

    Sammy Finkelman (51cd0c)

  8. Dave (1542be) — 5/13/2021 @ 7:33 pm

    More proof, as if it were needed, of the superior intelligence of this state’s residents.

    Bt their intelligence doesn’t have much an impact n their choices in elections.

    They’re usually lucky to have one acceptable choice. (but they always expect more at first)

    Jenner recently told CNN that he didn’t vote in the 2020 election, apparently unaware that voting records are public information.

    Jenner was previously not active in political campaigns.

    It’s public but not online and made available only to campaigns or via Freedom of Information Act type request. Some private companies collect the database and sell it, I think.

    Sammy Finkelman (51cd0c)

  9. I’m not sure how there is a budget surplus in California when they still have massive holes in their pension system.

    Pension systems are funded independently of the general fund.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  10. I think that Newsom is all but certain to survive the recall election, barring a major collapse in his approval numbers. His numbers are significantly higher than Gray Davis at the the recall election of 2003. One poll had his approval at 52%, which isn’t great, but not in the danger zone. Califronia is a much bluer state than the one that ousted Davis and elected Arnold Schwarzenegger, 18 year ago.

    HCI (92ea66)


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