Patterico's Pontifications

11/4/2020

Election Overtime – Open Thread [Updated]

Filed under: General — JVW @ 11:12 am



[guest post by JVW]

UPDATE 2:32 pm: A little bit of needed levity:

UPDATE 2:15 pm: Michigan has been called for Joe Biden. We’re closing in on a final result, barring a switch in Arizona, or if Nevada ends up in the Trump column.

UPDATE 12:20 pm: Maine’s Second District has been called for Trump, giving him one more electoral vote. My hopes of a 269-269 tie with Trump winning NV and MI and Biden winning WI, PA, and AZ are dashed. Drat. Back to the drawing board.

——–

So, I woke up today and was flabbergasted. Trump cruises in Ohio but loses Arizona? Imagine the irony if it is the state of John McCain and John Kyl Jeff Flake that denies him a second term (and yes, I’ve read the part about how the GOP expects to win by 30,000 votes once the counting is done).

Nevada, which I had earlier written off as a service union-dominated blue state, is still in play? I think that might be due to the COVID shutdowns absolutely hammering Las Vegas. The unionized hotel and casino workers might be otherwise inclined to vote for Biden, but when he’s out there talking about extending shutdowns while Trump seems to be prioritizing re-openings, well, all politics is local I suppose.

And of course the pollsters — or at least 95% of them — should all be tarred, feathered, and run out of town on a rail. The breaking news is from Maine where Sara Giddeon has conceded the Senate race to Susan Collins. Incredible. Exactly zero pollsters on the Real Clear Politics list had Senator Collins retaining her seat, yet she’s going to end up winning with an 8% margin of victory:

Another epic failure from our media elites, who no longer deserve even the smallest bit of deference to their myopic punditry.

Discuss what you would like. I am still crossing my fingers that John James pulls off the upset of the evening and beats Gary Peters for the Senate seat in Michigan. Having 53 Republican Senators would be a very welcome check on President Joe Biden.

– JVW

371 Responses to “Election Overtime – Open Thread [Updated]”

  1. I’m sorry, Trump fans, but Cocaine Mitch McConnell is the single most shrewd, far-sighted, capable politician in the country right now. He absolutely runs rings around Chuck Schumer and Nancy Pelosi. And I’ll bet that there is a significant part of Joe Biden that is glad the Senate stays in Republican hands so that he has an excuse for not delivering on gun control, a public option to Obamacare, corporate tax increases, and the rest of his stupid agenda.

    JVW (ee64e4)

  2. And of course the pollsters — or at least 95% of them — should all be tarred, feathered, and run out of town on a rail.

    As they laugh all the way to the bank? More like the fools, media or otherwise, who keep buying their snake oil.

    W.C. Fields had it right: ‘You can’t cheat an honest man. Never give a sucker an even break or smarten up a chump.’

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  3. And I’ll bet that there is a significant part of Joe Biden that is glad the Senate stays in Republican hands so that he has an excuse for not delivering on gun control, a public option to Obamacare, corporate tax increases, and the rest of his stupid agenda.

    JVW (ee64e4) — 11/4/2020 @ 11:17 am

    So you’re saying Joe’s a moderate that doesn’t really want to do all that lefty stuff? Tell me more….

    Time123 (7cca75)

  4. JVW, you’re just wishcasting on Biden.

    Arizona isn’t over yet.

    Recounts are going to be a nightmare and some want to overturn the Constitution and go to a direct popular vote? Imagine 50 states recounting and votes appearing out of thin air over and over.

    NJRob (eb56c3)

  5. So you’re saying Joe’s a moderate that doesn’t really want to do all that lefty stuff?

    I think I’ve been pretty consistent in my appraisal: Joe’s a cipher who is drawn along by whatever everyone around him believes at any given moment. He’ll be desperate to sign any legislation whatsoever, and given the results from this election the GOP will be able to make a credible claim that the nation is divided 50/50 and Dems are going to have to vastly scale back their ambitions.

    JVW (ee64e4)

  6. Biden wins most votes of any presidential candidate in history

    Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden has won the most votes out of any candidate in history, with the former vice president notching over 70 million votes nationwide as of Wednesday afternoon.

    Former President Barack Obama previously held the record for most votes cast for a presidential candidate in 2008, garnering over 69.4 million votes at the time.

    Biden currently has registered 70,170,626 votes nationwide and counting, according a tally from The Associated Press.

    Time123 (80b471)

  7. I share your amazement at Collins’ survival.

    As I tried, seemingly unsuccessfully, to explain in the other thread, the huge polling miss for Collins seems to demolish the “shy voter” theory for Trump’s overperformance in some polls. Sure, Trump is a vile reprobate that everyone should be ashamed of admitting they voted for. But Susan Collins? Are the shy Trump voters also shy Collins voters? I think there must be a more reality-based explanation.

    CNN and AP have called WI (where all the votes have been counted, according to the authorities) for Joe.

    Dave (1bb933)

  8. CORRECTION: I mixed up John Kyl and Jeff Flake in my first paragraph above. The correction is noted with the original crossed out.

    JVW (ee64e4)

  9. @5, Yes, I was teasing you. I agree with your analysis of Biden and would add that he’s very much open to a half a loaf deal where he get’s part of what he wants in exchange for something the GOP wants. Unlike Bernie who would happily let the good be defeated by the perfect.

    Time123 (7cca75)

  10. Never trumpers think you will be welcomed back into populist anti free trade anti neo-con republican party? Don’t want back where are you going to go AOC’s democrat party?

    asset (1187c5)

  11. 80% of vote tallied in PA; Trump up 53.3 to 45.4.

    He’ll win Pennsylvania. All the energy producing stats have gone to Trump.

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  12. As I tried, seemingly unsuccessfully, to explain in the other thread, the huge polling miss for Collins seems to demolish the “shy voter” theory for Trump’s overperformance in some polls.

    Agreed. Did you see the piece at NRO on the Trafalgar Group? They didn’t get it exactly right either, but I think they are on to something in their contention that current polling methodology is not adequate for the times in which we live. The other pollsters have had four years to adjust their practices, but it appears that most of them have chosen not to. And now we’re going to have to face all of the thinkpieces in media outlets explaining why the horrible polling is an outlier and only reflective of the weirdness of the Trump Era.

    JVW (ee64e4)

  13. @12 Poling science seems to be repeatedly inaccurate. Research firms need to understand and adjust for that. 538 had a detailed piece on how they adjusted based on 2016 if you’re interested in the details. Sorry but I don’t have the link handy.

    Time123 (80b471)

  14. I agree with your analysis of Biden and would add that he’s very much open to a half a loaf deal where he get’s part of what he wants in exchange for something the GOP wants.

    Woe unto President Joe, who will have to face the wrath of The Squad and their crazy Uncle Bernie when he compromises on major legislation. And woe unto Aunt Nancy who has to babysit those whiny brats.

    JVW (ee64e4)

  15. @3. So you’re saying Joe’s a moderate that doesn’t really want to do all that lefty stuff? Tell me more….

    I’m saying he’s a dead man walking. Joey turns 78 years old in just 16 days. If it goes Biden’s way, heart-beat-away-Kamala is the big winner.

    Ponder that.

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  16. @14, we need to get back to trading apples for oranges. You get cuts in abortion funding I get a trade bill. You get support for hearings on social media I get some judicial votes….

    Time123 (80b471)

  17. When Franklin D. Roosevelt, who died starting his fourth term in office, was Joe Biden’s age today, he’d been dead 15 years.

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  18. JVW, you’re just wishcasting on Biden.

    Arizona isn’t over yet.

    I’m not really “wishcasting” because I don’t prefer that Biden wins. Nor do I prefer that Trump wins. I am truly disinterested in the result, and even more so now that it appears the GOP will hold the Senate (and perhaps pick up House seats!).

    And I know Arizona isn’t over, I actually mention in the post that the GOP thinks President Trump will end up with a 30,000 vote victory margin.

    JVW (ee64e4)

  19. The other pollsters have had four years to adjust their practices, but it appears that most of them have chosen not to.

    This is the opposite of the truth.

    The polling misses in 2016 pointed clearly to the undercounting of stupid people.

    As a result, all the major pollsters started weighting their polls for stupidity. And the polls performed pretty well in 2018.

    Even so, it appears this year they have somehow *still* underestimated the number of stupid people.

    This leads me to propound Dave’s Special Theory of Stupidity: No matter how many stupid people you count, there are always more.

    And, its corollary, Dave’s General Theory of Stupidity: You can never count all the stupid people.

    Dave (1bb933)

  20. I’m playing around on 270 to Win trying desperately to game up a scenario where it’s a 269-269 tie. It looks like the only remaining plausible scenario is that Trump wins Nevada and Michigan, and Biden takes Arizona, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. It’s absolutely what our country deserves this year, and it’s not entirely out of the question.

    JVW (ee64e4)

  21. This leads me to propound Dave’s Special Theory of Stupidity: No matter how many stupid people you count, there are always more. And, its corollary, Dave’s General Theory of Stupidity: You can never count all the stupid people.

    Golly Davey, since plagiarism may be voted to be the in thing these days you may quote me:

    You can fool some of the stupid all of the time, and all of the stupid some of the time, but you can not fool all of the stupid all of the time.

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  22. JVW — I wonder what percentage of Biden’s judicial nominations even come up for a vote with McConnell in control of the Senate.

    aphrael (4c4719)

  23. I also wonder what the odds are that either (a) a faithless elector causes it to go to the House or (b) a faithless elector causes us to get Biden-Pence.

    aphrael (4c4719)

  24. @20. Pennsylvania will go to Trump. The numbers and percentages are showing it; it makes it difficult for Biden to pull that out; much of Western PA counties [aside from Allegheny County] are similar in demographics and economic make up to Eastern Ohio and West Virginia- both of which went for Trump. Philly will go t Bien,but his percentage so far is lower than what HRC got.

    And every energy producing state has gone for Trump.

    Try gaming it out w/PA in Trump’s column.

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  25. Pennsylvania will go to Trump.

    Ooh! Let’s make a wager!

    Dave (1bb933)

  26. Stupid people: People who value things differently than Dave does.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  27. I also wonder what the odds are that either (a) a faithless elector causes it to go to the House or (b) a faithless elector causes us to get Biden-Pence.

    Oh Lord. The mind boggles.

    JVW (ee64e4)

  28. Do you want a squeaker Republican president w/a GOP Senate and a Dem House or a squeaker Democrat president w/a GOP Senate and a Dem House–and both old dudes ready to mess w/t SCOTUS by nomination– or packing.

    “That’s some damn choice, Bob.” – Robert F. Kennedy [Marti Shen] ‘ The Missiles of October’ ABC TV, 1974

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  29. JVW — I wonder what percentage of Biden’s judicial nominations even come up for a vote with McConnell in control of the Senate.

    In a 52-48 senate, Romney and Collins have the potential to put country ahead of party when necessary.

    53-47 makes me more nervous.

    Dave (1bb933)

  30. @25. That wouldn’t be fair to you, Davey.

    I know Pennsylvania better than you do.

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  31. a faithless elector causes us to get Biden-Pence

    … when Trump-Harris would be so much better.

    Dave (1bb933)

  32. PA is counting votes and the number of votes still to be counted keeps increasing. Probably last minute mail-in votes that they continue to accept. Not sure why those would favor anyone in particular, barring organized mailings.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  33. @25. You may quote me: Ask not what your bookie can do for you; ask what you can do for your bookie, Davey.

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  34. Not sure why those would favor anyone in particular, barring organized mailings.

    Matter of fact, by Dave’s rules, they would be stupid people, and therefore Trump’s.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  35. > Probably last minute mail-in votes that they continue to accept

    PA is accepting ballots that are postmarked by election day and received by Friday.

    aphrael (4c4719)

  36. UPDATE: Maine’s Second District has been called for Trump, giving him one more electoral vote. My hopes of a 269-269 tie with Trump winning NV and MI and Biden winning WI, PA, and AZ are dashed. Drat. Back to the drawing board.

    JVW (ee64e4)

  37. I also wonder what the odds are that either (a) a faithless elector causes it to go to the House or (b) a faithless elector causes us to get Biden-Pence.

    Trump/Harris would be more fun, and a constant worry for the Secret Service.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  38. @32. Last minute PA voters mean they voted after Biden made his fracking slip at the debate, too.

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  39. I no longer see a viable method of reaching 269-269.

    JVW (ee64e4)

  40. JVW — I wonder what percentage of Biden’s judicial nominations even come up for a vote with McConnell in control of the Senate.

    I doubt that most of them would have any issues, only the “extremes.” The argument would come about where that line was, as it did with Reid and W’s appointees.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  41. @26: Stupid people are those that answer polling questions truthfully.

    beer ‘n pretzels (042d67)

  42. @40. McConnell wud shut’em down just like he did w/t Obama/Biden administration.

    Don’t kid yourself; there’s no ‘Red’ love for Joe, or Kamala– except maybe in Moscow and Bejing.

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  43. Kevin M — Merrick Garland wasn’t an extreme. So, while I understand that what you’re describing is how it is *supposed* to work, I see absolutely no evidence from recent behavior that Mitch McConnell has any interest in having things work the way they’re supposed to.

    aphrael (4c4719)

  44. That wouldn’t be fair to you, Davey.

    I know Pennsylvania better than you do.

    So you’re claiming Pennsylvania as your home, despite moving out of state? Hmmm…

    Anyway, your pompous prediction will prove wrong, just like all the others.

    And when it does, I’ll point out, yet again, how ridiculous you look.

    Dave (1bb933)

  45. @41. People are smartening up in the 21st century. Data is always for sale- sometimes on the cheap. When the Nielsen TV ratings people sent me a questionnaire w/a crisp $5 bill in it, I answered it truthfully.

    Buy me.

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  46. I assume Mitch will refuse to vote on any Biden judicial appointments.

    Time123 (7cca75)

  47. I’m assigning MI to Biden. GA and NC are Trumps with almost all votes in. Trump gets AK as he always wouild. This leaves NV, PA and AZ. If Biden wins PA, or both of the other 2 he wins. Else not.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  48. I assume Mitch will refuse to vote on any Biden judicial appointments.

    Well, that’s silly, but assume away.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  49. Based on current results and what’s still out, I expect NV and AZ to go Biden.

    aphrael (4c4719)

  50. Trump’s lead is already down to 400K in PA, and only 7% of the 25% outstanding at the beginning of the day have been counted.

    Trump led by 11% then. Now he leads by 6.5%.

    Dave (1bb933)

  51. @44. Gee Davey, let me check… wow, birth certificate reads Allegheny County… college degree reads Pennsylvania… gee, let me check all family grave plots for past 150 years– all relatives buried in Western Pennsylvania and Eastern Ohio… hmmmm… let me check grandpa papers and civic honors– ah yes, he worked w/PA pols and in city civics all his life; close friends w/PA State Treasurer-for state funds to be deposited in PNB; pals w/Pgh mayors/state and senators… Hmmmmm.

    The only pomposity on display is yours, Davey. You can’t count. Stay out of the Poli-Sci lab; Davey; stick to counting the test tubes if neutrinos are too tough.

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  52. Merrick Garland wasn’t an extreme

    1. To the GOP he was extreme on guns, a third-rail issue among the base.

    2. It was the Supreme Court, and he would replace Scalia.

    3. It was at a point where they could run out the clock.

    Just the same it was a campaign issue. If the voters objected, they could have tossed out some Senators and then Obama would have sent a fire-breathing leftist down on Jan 3, for a lightning confirmation. If Hillary had won, the nomination would have been withdrawn so that Hillary could make her own choice.

    There is no way that all judicial appointments get held up for four years. There are lots of ways to make that stop, and McConnell isn’t going to let it happen.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  53. Trump leads 52% to 46% in PA, Davey.

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  54. I think Cocaine Mitch is way more shrewd than his detractors give him credit for. I would guess that he’ll cut a deal with a President Biden whereby Biden gets to make half of the nominations to federal courts and in return he agrees to nominate the other half from a list that Republicans give him. Democrats will cry foul, but if Biden is truly serious about “healing” the nation then I can’t see him refusing that deal. Half a loaf being better than none, and such. The real issue will be when we get to District Court of Appeals nominations. I can see McConnell and Graham insisting on a deal whereby a seat that was previously occupied by a Republican/conservative judge goes to another Republican/conservative, and a seat occupied by a Democrat/progressive goes to a new Democrat/progressive nominee.

    A Supreme Court fight would be incredible to behold. Merrick Garland might yet get his seat!

    JVW (ee64e4)

  55. At one point, all of W’s appellate appointees were blocked by Reid, and it took the threat of a serious shutdown to get Reid off the pot and negotiate. Most of them were not “extreme” either.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  56. In other news, it looks like the statehood referendum narrowly passed. But it seems unlikely that the Senate will act on it now.

    aphrael (4c4719)

  57. Better tan most polls would be taking the previous election, and trying to account for factors that could affect the result.

    Sammy Finkelman (125d6f)

  58. Every time there is one of these nominations (Garland for Scalia, ACB for RBG) the changeover is always wrenching. But it wasn’t always that way. RBG herself replaced a hard-core abortion opponent (Byron White) yet she got a near unanimous vote.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  59. I can see PR becoming a state, in conjunction with some other corrections (e.g. California).

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  60. 54.I think Cocaine Mitch is way more shrewd than his detractors give him credit for.

    He’s certainly a survivor. But any deals would reveal the weak and appeasement minded Biden simply dealing w/a shrewd McConnell.

    How do you think a President Harris would deal with McConnell? That may be a real possibility.

    If it goes Biden’s way, I expect it.

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  61. JVW (ee64e4) — 11/4/2020 @ 12:44 pm

    Mitch is way more shrewd than his detractors give him credit for. I would guess that he’ll cut a deal with a President Biden whereby Biden gets to make half of the nominations to federal courts and in return he agrees to nominate the other half from a list that Republicans give him. Democrats will cry foul, but if Biden is truly serious about “healing” the nation then I can’t see him refusing that deal.

    Maybe for dstrict judges, but the usual deal is for Senators (or other members of the president’s party) n effect name the judges, with some going to the opposition party.

    Sammy Finkelman (125d6f)

  62. Trump leads 52% to 46% in PA, Davey.

    Oh c’mon, Deezy-eska! Just humor me by taking my money in a trifling bet on PA.

    How about $5000? Or even better, $10000?

    If your conscience won’t permit you to profit from my ignorance, you can donate your winnings to the Trump Foundation in my name.

    Dave (1bb933)

  63. I can’t confirm if it’s true, but it feels true that 2020 polling was worse than 2016 polling. David Graham:

    This is a disaster for the polling industry and for media outlets and analysts that package and interpret the polls for public consumption, such as FiveThirtyEight, The New York Times’ Upshot, and The Economist’s election unit. They now face serious existential questions. But the greatest problem posed by the polling crisis is not in the presidential election, where the snapshots provided by polling are ultimately measured against an actual tally of votes: As the political cliché goes, the only poll that matters is on Election Day. The real catastrophe is that the failure of the polls leaves Americans with no reliable way to understand what we as a people think outside of elections—which in turn threatens our ability to make choices, or to cohere as a nation.

    Paul Montagu (77c694)

  64. you can donate your winnings to the Trump Foundation in my name

    Maybe plagiarist Melania will send you some candid photos!

    Dave (1bb933)

  65. Oh c’mon, Deezy-eska! Just humor me by taking my money in a trifling bet on PA.

    How about $5000? Or even better, $10000?

    This blog can’t facilitate illegal wagering, Dave.

    JVW (ee64e4)

  66. It’s not clear to me why 538 faces existential questions. They are a poll *aggregator*. If the polls are wrong, the result of aggregation is going to be wrong. There’s not a whole lot they or anyone else can do about that.

    aphrael (4c4719)

  67. Trump fan here:

    I’m sorry, Trump fans, but Cocaine Mitch McConnell is the single most shrewd, far-sighted, capable politician in the country right now. He absolutely runs rings around Chuck Schumer and Nancy Pelosi. And I’ll bet that there is a significant part of Joe Biden that is glad the Senate stays in Republican hands so that he has an excuse for not delivering on gun control, a public option to Obamacare, corporate tax increases, and the rest of his stupid agenda.

    JVW (ee64e4) — 11/4/2020 @ 11:17 am

    agreed, 100%

    J. W. Morris (6546db)

  68. @62. Golly, Davey- that’s so romney of you; but allow me to plagiarize; you may quote me quoting you: ‘This leads me to propound Dave’s Special Theory of Stupidity: No matter how many stupid people you count, there are always more. And, its corollary, Dave’s General Theory of Stupidity: You can never count all the stupid people.’

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  69. Arizona isn’t over but Trump has a tough road.
    If only 86% of the votes have been recorded, that means there are 450,000 uncounted votes, most or all of them mail-ins. To overcome a 93,000-vote deficit, Trump will have win at least 60% of those votes, and mail-ins have favored Biden over Trump.

    Paul Montagu (77c694)

  70. I can’t confirm if it’s true, but it feels true that 2020 polling was worse than 2016 polling.

    It’s kind of odd; as in 2016, it varied by state.

    Fivethirtyeight’s model had MN 53.7 – 44.6. The current tally is 52.6 – 45.4. A miss of 2 points on the margin.

    They had WI, with very similar demographics and proclivities, 53.7 – 45.4. And the current tally is 49.4 – 48.8. A miss of a whopping 7.7 points on the margin.

    It’s hard to see a why the polling accuracy should be so different in two neighboring states so similar.

    And unlike 2016, where there was a dearth of polling by major polling outfits, these states were polled to death this time, and the results were quite consistent across different pollsters and over time.

    It’s even bizarre that the outcomes themselves (never mind the polling) should be so different.

    Based on my Special and General Theories of Stupidity, one would have to conclude that there are simply more stupid people (who the pollsters can never count all of) in WI.

    Dave (1bb933)

  71. Now here’s an interesting situation to mull over. Recall that the GOP Senate has vowed to hold hearings on and confirm Thomas Kirsch to replace Amy Coney Barrett on the Seventh Circuit Court. If Biden does emerge victorious in the election, I wonder if McConnell and Graham will push forward.

    On the one hand, they could point to the election results and the GOP’s continuing majority and declare that the American people approve of the nominees they have pushed forward, and lame ducks or not they are going to continue doing their job. On the other hand, Biden might say to them, “Hey, here’s the deal: if you hold off until after I am inaugurated, I will re-nominate Kavana– Kav– Kirsch for the seat in return for you agreeing to — you know, the thing — one (or more) of my nominees.” That could be a smart olive branch sort of move on his part.

    But the GOP might reply, “No, any deals we make with you don’t begin until January 20. Until then, it’s going to be business as usual around here.” That sort of battle would I think give us lots of insight into how things are going to go in Washington starting in 2021.

    JVW (ee64e4)

  72. Biden speaks: “A government of, by and for the people.”

    Once a plagiarist; always a plagiarist.

    Idiot.

    Declares winning– but not victory. How Trumpian.

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  73. This blog can’t facilitate illegal wagering, Dave.

    How libertarian!

    We would be wagering on an event that has already taken place, so the legality, or lack thereof, seems a little murky.

    But since Deezy-eska is all talk, I guess it’s a moot point.

    Dave (1bb933)

  74. More electoral chaos.

    A chaotic scene erupted outside the vote tally room at TCF Center in Detroit as election officials informed dozens of challengers that they could not reenter the room due to it being over-capacity.
    Police had to push back crowds as they argued to be allowed in the vote-counting arena.

    As of right now, 570 challengers are freely roaming the room as poll workers count the 25,000 absentee ballots from Detroiters.
    That includes 227 Republican challengers; 268 Democrat challengers and 75 Nonpartisan challengers, including groups like the ACLU and the League of Women voters.

    Time123 (80b471)

  75. We would be wagering on an event that has already taken place, so the legality, or lack thereof, seems a little murky.

    That’s silly. If I were to flip a coin and cover it up with my hand and invite you to bet $500,000 on whether it is heads or tails, I doubt I could beat an illegal gambling charge by declaring that the coin flip had already taken place.

    Given our host’s occupation, my libertarian instincts vis a vis gambling have to take a backseat to not causing him any headaches.

    JVW (ee64e4)

  76. “Hey, here’s the deal: if you hold off until after I am inaugurated, I will re-nominate Kirsch for the seat in return for you agreeing to — you know, the thing — one (or more) of my nominees.”

    Not sure if serious. What’s in it for Cocaine Mitch?

    Comity? (LOL)

    He can get what he wants without giving away anything.

    Dave (1bb933)

  77. Given our host’s occupation, my libertarian instincts vis a vis gambling have to take a backseat to not causing him any headaches.

    Point taken.

    Dave (1bb933)

  78. A chaotic scene erupted outside the vote tally room at TCF Center in Detroit as election officials informed dozens of challengers that they could not reenter the room due to it being over-capacity.

    Ah, Detroit. Florida, but on Lake Erie instead of the Atlantic Ocean.

    The GOP has special reason to watch the Wayne County voting very closely.

    JVW (ee64e4)

  79. @43

    Kevin M — Merrick Garland wasn’t an extreme. So, while I understand that what you’re describing is how it is *supposed* to work, I see absolutely no evidence from recent behavior that Mitch McConnell has any interest in having things work the way they’re supposed to.

    aphrael (4c4719) — 11/4/2020 @ 12:29 pm

    Actually, I think you’re missing something.

    Mitch would absolutely block Garland for his anti-2nd amendment stance. But, he could negotiate a more moderate liberal jurist for Biden’s support for some legislative goodies.

    Same strategy would be applied to all of Biden’s political appointees. You won’t see Elizabeth Warren passing the Senate for Secretary of Treasury.

    whembly (c30c83)

  80. > Declares winning– but not victory. How Trumpian.

    I think the only sane Democratic reaction to this is to look at the situation and figure out why we did so badly.

    aphrael (4c4719)

  81. Not sure if serious. What’s in it for Cocaine Mitch?

    Comity? (LOL)

    He can get what he wants without giving away anything.

    Yep, my point entirely. The one thing I would say, though, is that Cocaine Mitch just won another six-year term, and hopefully it will be his final one, and Joe Biden is supposedly this guy who was well-liked by his Senate colleagues (I have my doubts). So there is probably a glimmer of hope that Biden can talk him into that kind of arrangement. I would think that Mitch would be smart enough to also get some sweeteners in that deal from his old buddy Joe.

    JVW (ee64e4)

  82. @75. That’s silly.

    Yes. Consider the source.

    Wait– who said that?!?! Did I just plagiarize somebody?! Well, it may be ‘in vogue’ now so who cares. 😉

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  83. You won’t see Elizabeth Warren passing the Senate for Secretary of Treasury.

    Praise the Lord!

    JVW (ee64e4)

  84. whembly, at 43: Biden would be insane to nominate any sitting Democratic Senator for anything, particularly one from a state with a Republican Governor.

    aphrael (4c4719)

  85. Actually, I think you’re missing something.

    Mitch would absolutely block Garland for his anti-2nd amendment stance. But, he could negotiate a more moderate liberal jurist for Biden’s support for some legislative goodies.

    Same strategy would be applied to all of Biden’s political appointees. You won’t see Elizabeth Warren passing the Senate for Secretary of Treasury.

    whembly (c30c83) — 11/4/2020 @ 1:22 pm

    I fully expect Mitch to refuse to do anything with Biden. I expect Biden to respond by doing everything with EO and recess appointments.

    Time123 (80b471)

  86. I fully expect Mitch to refuse to do anything with Biden. I expect Biden to respond by doing everything with EO and recess appointments.

    Man. And I thought it was I who played the role of the misanthropic cynic on this blog.

    Kidding aside, a lot of Republicans are going to be very happy to see Donald Trump gone. They will raise some minor complaints about this and that, and they will continue to go hard after people like Big Tech who they think put their thumb on the scale in this past election, but I think a lot of Senate Republicans will want to have a more cooperative attitude in their chamber. It would be a nice contrast to what I expect will go on in the House, when the young Democrat Socialists start agitating more a more aggressive agenda.

    JVW (ee64e4)

  87. Biden would be insane to nominate any sitting Democratic Senator for anything, particularly one from a state with a Republican Governor.

    The Massachusetts Legislature would just do what it did when Mitt Romney was governor and there was hope that John Kerry would win the White House: change the law so that the governor can’t make a temporary appointment, knowing that with their veto-proof majority Governor Baker can’t do a damn thing about it. And then of course once Deval Patrick was installed on Beacon Hill and Ted Kennedy was on his deathbed, the legislature simply changed the law back to allowing the governor to make the temporary appointment. Talk about power politics: Democrat governors can make the appointment, but Republican governors cannot.

    JVW (ee64e4)

  88. Ah, Detroit. Florida, but on Lake Erie instead of the Atlantic Ocean.

    This time, Sir, you have gone too far. I must insist you withdraw your base slander.

    I trust upon more reflection you will see the matter in the same light with me. If not, I can only regret the circumstances and must abide the consequences.

    Your Obed. St

    Dave (1bb933)

  89. Ah, Detroit. Florida, but on Lake Erie instead of the Atlantic Ocean.

    Love this. Stealing it.

    Dana (6995e0)

  90. Toledo (spits) is on Lake Erie.

    Cleveland (spits) is on Lake Erie.

    Detroit, the renaissance city, is not on Lake Erie.

    Dave (1bb933)

  91. Gridlock?

    As American as baseball, hot dogs, apple pie and Chevrolet.

    Wait– who said that?!?! Did I just plagiarize somebody, again?!

    ‘Say I ain’t so, Joe…’ oh no– not again on top of again… ‘Hell hath no fury like a Biden Norm…’ oh no, again….it’s a hopeless loop We’re entering Biden Hell!!! ‘Help me! Help me…’ oh no, now The Fly… it could be four years [more likely just two] of endless plagirism. ‘We’re done for! We’re done for…’ oh no, now Monty Python… ‘Arrrgh!’ Oh no, now Peanuts!

    Well, it may be ‘in vogue’ now so who cares

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  92. @86, I hope you’re right, but based on what we see now I expect the GOP to go into 2021 fully with “stolen election” in place of “Secretly a Kenyan Born Muslim”.

    The public blames whoever is in the white house if things don’t get done.
    Most voters don’t pay a lot of attention to who causes gridlock.
    Trump will still be loudly in the public eye telling everyone that he would have done everything better.

    Seems like a 100% obstruction plan is the likely outcome.

    Time123 (80b471)

  93. Biden would be insane to nominate any sitting Democratic Senator for anything, particularly one from a state with a Republican Governor.

    The Massachusetts Legislature would just do what it did when Mitt Romney was governor and there was hope that John Kerry would win the White House: change the law so that the governor can’t make a temporary appointment, knowing that with their veto-proof majority Governor Baker can’t do a damn thing about it. And then of course once Deval Patrick was installed on Beacon Hill and Ted Kennedy was on his deathbed, the legislature simply changed the law back to allowing the governor to make the temporary appointment. Talk about power politics: Democrat governors can make the appointment, but Republican governors cannot.

    JVW (ee64e4) — 11/4/2020 @ 1:36 pm

    Yup

    Time123 (80b471)

  94. Fox calls Michigan for Biden.

    Will Fox & Friends still be friends, Donald?

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  95. @93. What about a President Harris?

    You’d be foolish to ignore her perspective on anything. Party insiders knew FDR was dying when talked Truman into being on the ’44 ticket. They know Biden’s condition as well. The multiple brain surgeried Joe turns 78 years old in just 16 days.

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  96. I just want the election to be over so that DCSCA finds a new gimmick.

    Davethulhu (284dab)

  97. The polling misses in 2016 pointed clearly to the undercounting of stupid people.

    As a result, all the major pollsters started weighting their polls for stupidity. And the polls performed pretty well in 2018.

    Even so, it appears this year they have somehow *still* underestimated the number of stupid people.

    This leads me to propound Dave’s Special Theory of Stupidity: No matter how many stupid people you count, there are always more.

    And, its corollary, Dave’s General Theory of Stupidity: You can never count all the stupid people.

    Dave (1bb933) — 11/4/2020 @ 11:52 am

    When I read this, it makes me wonder why Democrats/liberals ever ponder where civility has gone in American political discourse. All they have to do is look in the mirror, assuming Antifa hasn’t broken it with a brick yet.

    Hoi Polloi (15cfac)

  98. “When I read this, it makes me wonder why Democrats/liberals ever ponder where civility has gone in American political discourse. All they have to do is look in the mirror, assuming Antifa hasn’t broken it with a brick yet.”

    Dave is neither a Democrat nor a liberal.

    Davethulhu (284dab)

  99. @96. Apparently you missed Biden’s appearance this afternoon; literally a streaming list of plagiarized quotes.

    Get use to it.

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  100. “Get use to it.”

    Please. I beg of you.

    Davethulhu (284dab)

  101. Say I ain’t so, Joe…’ oh no– not again on top of again… ‘Hell hath no fury like a Biden Norm…’ oh no, again….it’s a hopeless loop We’re entering Biden Hell!!! ‘Help me! Help me…’ oh no, now The Fly… it could be four years [more likely just two] of endless plagirism. ‘We’re done for! We’re done for…’ oh no, now Monty Python… ‘Arrrgh!’ Oh no, now Peanuts!

    Now that’s funny.

    Marci (405d43)

  102. Trump’s lead in PA now down to 5 points, with 16% of the ballots estimated uncounted.

    At the start of the day, the lead was 11 points, with 25% uncounted.

    Biden looks to be on track to win PA by a safe margin.

    Dave (1bb933)

  103. UPDATE: Michigan has been called for Joe Biden. We’re closing in on a final result, barring a switch in Arizona, or if Nevada ends up in the Trump column.

    JVW (ee64e4)

  104. Time123, at 92: I expect Trump to spend the next three years sniping from the sidelines about how the election was stolen and if the will of the people had been allowed to prevail, he would have done everything so much better, and I expect him to run again in 2024 *and win* on the strength of that rhetoric unless the Democrats figure out why they’re losing.

    aphrael (4c4719)

  105. It’s a fluid situation. There aren’t 450,000 uncounted ballots in AZ, there are 605,000 uncounted ballots in Maricopa County, which is a red county I’m told, but Biden is winning there 52-46, and he’s winning mail-ins 54-45. Trump’s chances may be a little better now, but he still has a tough road.

    Paul Montagu (77c694)

  106. It looks like John James might fall short in his bid to win a Senate seat. Right now he is down some 15,000 votes. If there really is some chicanery going on in Michigan, I would rather that its discovery be to the benefit of Mr. James than President Trump, who appears to be 70,000 votes down at this point.

    JVW (ee64e4)

  107. As of right now in Michigan:

    Joe Biden 2.688 million votes
    Donald Trump 2.618 million votes
    Assorted other Presidential candidates 83,000 votes, give or take

    Gary Peters 2.623 million votes
    John James 2.608 million votes
    Assorted other Senate candidates 100,000 votes, give or take

    JVW (ee64e4)

  108. CNN tried to discount social media posts on Arizona poll workers forcing people to use sharpies, even though optical scanners don’t read them. CNN said it was only one person and unconfirmed.

    Then the State AG said “we’ve received hundreds of complaints.”

    Oops.

    Hoi Polloi (15cfac)

  109. a ballot marked by sharpie should be kicked out of the machine as a null vote, and should then be manually countable.

    aphrael (4c4719)

  110. > which is a red county I’m told,

    formerly red county that Clinton carried in 2016 and in which Dems had a huge improvement in 2018.

    a *lot* depends on *where* in Maricopa county, since it’s the county that has Phoenix (very blue) and its suburbs (more purple).

    aphrael (4c4719)

  111. UPDATE: A little bit of needed levity:

    Even the looters don’t know what to do now.— Scott Adams (@ScottAdamsSays) November 4, 2020

    JVW (ee64e4)

  112. UPDATE BY PATTERICO: I’ll lay down my marker. I think Biden takes Texas and the result is announced tonight. Nothing else will matter after that. Dems gain seats in the House and take the Senate.

    Brion Mitchell (18e8bb)

  113. Dave is neither a Democrat nor a liberal.

    I approve of this statement.

    Dave (1bb933)

  114. If there really is some chicanery going on in Michigan

    Why would you suggest this?

    Dave (1bb933)

  115. “even though optical scanners don’t read them.”

    fake news

    https://youtu.be/aNhCcimt6No

    Davethulhu (284dab)

  116. @100. Arizona vs. Pennsylvnia.

    ‘Changes in latitudes; changes in attitudes; nothing remains quite the same.’

    Wait– Oh no! It’s everywhere! Plagiarism is now the new virus! Shut it down, Joe! Shut it down!!

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  117. Biden to Gardner; ‘Get out of Denver.’

    Oh no! Again!

    Joe, we need a vaccine!! Shut it down! Shut it down!!!

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  118. Clinton’s margin in heavily Dem Wayne County (Detroit and near suburbs) was blamed for her loss in 2016.

    But Biden’s margin of victory there (+37) was identical to hers. In fact, it’s just about the only large county in the state where Biden didn’t outperform HRC. Looking at the swing from HRC 2016 in fully reported counties (Trump counties marked with *):

    Wayne: no difference
    Oakland: +6
    *Macomb: +2.5
    Washtenaw: +6
    *Ottawa: +9
    Ingham: +6
    *Livingston: +6
    Saginaw: +1

    In smaller rural (and heavily red) counties upstate, Biden generally did no worse or better than HRC.

    His big margin in Wayne was obviously crucial, but the suburbs, exurbs and small cities are where Biden flipped the state.

    Dave (1bb933)

  119. CNN tried to discount social media posts on Arizona poll workers forcing people to use sharpies, even though optical scanners don’t read them. CNN said it was only one person and unconfirmed.

    Then the State AG said “we’ve received hundreds of complaints.”

    Oops.

    Hoi Polloi (15cfac) — 11/4/2020 @ 2:30 pm

    Voters on both sides of the aisle have complained about the Sharpies in my neck of the woods. Democrats and Republicans left polling sites feeling uneasy about their ballots even though poll workers reassured them that the ballot bubbles are not concentric. The bleed-through to the other side of the ballot is never in a bubble. Voters were told that the machines only read the darkest marks. But it does seem pretty stupid to give voters Sharpies to mark their ballots rather than regular old ink pens, as has always been the practice. Of all the elections to try and mix things up. Oof. Of course, it’s possible that our County Registrar of Voters got a super deal from the Sharpie company on a truckload of markers.

    Dana (6995e0)

  120. When I voted in person in San Francisco, they *only* used sharpies.

    I think the claim that sharpies can’t be read is unlikely to be true.

    aphrael (4c4719)

  121. I wonder how many votes the Green Party would’ve gotten in PA and WI had they been allowed on the ballot.

    The Repubs must’ve kept them off since they’re all yay vote suppression.

    beer ‘n pretzels (042d67)

  122. One of the most disappointing results of the night is the failure of RCV in the states where it was on the ballot.

    aphrael (4c4719)

  123. Anyone have a better explanation for WI? Does same day registration really cover this?

    Per Kim Strassel:

    1) I am legitimately interested/confused by this. I checked, and the top number is indeed Wisconsin’s active registered voter number as of Nov. 1. The bottom is approx. what has been counted. That is a (not feasible) 89% turnout.

    Wisconsin has 3,684,726 active registered voters.

    They counted 3,288,771 votes.

    That’s, um, a bit unbelievable.

    89% turnout? Ok sure.

    2) The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel is claiming a 71% state turnout. I’m not sure where it gets this, but that would make more sense, given even populous Milwaukee didn’t exceed 83% turnout, and Dane lower. (Do math on what rest of state wud need to bump up state avg to 89)

    3) True, Wisconsin has same day voter registration. But to be at 71%, WI would have yesterday needed 900k same-day registrations. ( If I’m doing my math wrong–please tell me. 3,288,771 divided by 4,588,771 equals 71% . 4,588,771 minus 3,684,726 =900k)

    4) Is that possible/conceivable? That would be akin to increasing WI’s registered voting population by up to 30%–in one day. It would also suggest that if those same-day registrations hadn’t happened, WI would have had a ridiculously LOW turnout.

    5) I suppose it is possible WI’s turnout was higher than 71% (again, not sure where MJS gets that). But that would be wild, given the state’s own history and what we saw elsewhere yesterday. An even an 80% turnout would still require HUGE same-day registration.

    6)Surely a record/tally of those same-day registrations must exist. It would therefore seem a straightforward proposition to set the numbers/record straight?
    Again, explain if I’m missing something.
    @WI_Elections

    I did the math 3x already and her numbers checks out.

    That’s an amazing turnout that surpasses even HRC’s and Obama’s (both terms) turnout by quite a bit.

    Is it possible that many of these folks did mailins and were allowed to vote again?

    Or, is it feasible that same-day registration on election day was 900k????

    whembly (c30c83)

  124. Why would you suggest this?

    See the link in my comment above at 1:21 pm. Wayne County was not exactly an exemplar of running a tight and well-regulated election four years ago.

    JVW (ee64e4)

  125. @123 I’m not really saying it’s fishy, moreso that its amazing. I think any turnout reaching pass 70% would be near unheard of…

    whembly (c30c83)

  126. I would expect that a record of the same day registrations exists, but I would *also* expect that it exists in the form of some stack of voter registration affidavits, which *for obvious reasons* nobody is counting until the election results are finalized.

    That’s normal process in states (like California) which allow same-day registration.

    aphrael (4c4719)

  127. Don’t look now… according to DDHQ Georgia is within 60,000 votes where there’s quite a bit left in Democratic heavy districts.

    Looking like Biden may win Georgia after all.

    whembly (c30c83)

  128. I remember back in the day sitting in a St. John’s Wood pub trying to explain this system to a Brit. After about 10 minutes, she just smiled and said, ‘We do it better.’ A few years later, was in a Moscow school room on a trip discussing same to an English-speaking Russian student. After 10 minutes, he said nothing. Just smiled. Wonder if his last name was Putin.

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  129. Of all the elections to try and mix things up. Oof. Of course, it’s possible that our County Registrar of Voters got a super deal from the Sharpie company on a truckload of markers.

    They should have designed a special “butterfly ballot” for counties with large numbers of senior citizens and first-time voters.

    JVW (ee64e4)

  130. > Don’t look now… according to DDHQ Georgia is within 60,000 votes where there’s quite a bit left in Democratic heavy districts.

    My prediction from last night (that Trump would carry NC and PA, but lose AZ/NV/WI/MI/GA) seems to have been on target, so far.

    aphrael (4c4719)

  131. Anyone have a better explanation for WI?

    Waukesha County (Trump +21) had over 92% turnout.

    You’re right, it looks very suspicious.

    Dave (1bb933)

  132. @129. ROFLMAOPIP

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  133. Nationwide, we appear to have locked in the highest turnout since 1900. So a turnout in the 80s in a tightly contested swing state simply feels plausible to me.

    aphrael (4c4719)

  134. See, for example, https://www.dailycardinal.com/article/2020/11/wisconsin-poised-to-experience-record-turnout-in-2020-presidential-election, which was published yesterday morning, talking about how 91.5% of requested absentees had been returned in Wisconsin, and that turnout *at that time* in counties outside the Milwaukee and Madison media markets were low — implying that if turnout in the outside-the-city counties rose to normal rates, let alone unusually high ones, the overall state turnout would be record setting.

    aphrael (4c4719)

  135. 89% turnout? Ok sure.

    Barron County (Trump +26) had 91.8% turnout
    Dodge County (Trump +31) had 92.5% turnout
    Waupaca County (Trump +32) had 92.8% turnout
    Shawano County (Trump +36) had 93.7% turnout

    Clearly a pattern of fraud is emerging here.

    Dave (1bb933)

  136. @125 *I’m* not claiming fraud… *I’m* remarking how incredible that is… we should WANT this level of engagement everywhere.

    whembly (c30c83)

  137. As an aside, I thought it was cool that I could check that my ballot was received and counted over the web.

    The last time I voted by mail was 1992 (from CERN), and “the Web” was a PC on some guy’s desk down the hall…

    Dave (1bb933)

  138. Re aphrael’s admonition about appointing Senators from R Governors states…that timidity probably resulted in weak Dem VP selections in both 2016 and 2020 for fear of giving away Senate seats. Sherrod Brown might have really come in handy or at least let us go to sleep a little earlier.

    urbanleftbehind (cec660)

  139. urbanleftbehind — on the other hand, it’s well known that obama’s propensity for appointing senators cost dems seats in the senate in 2009 and made the situation with respect to getting legislation through the senate very, very difficult.

    aphrael (4c4719)

  140. it’s well known that obama’s propensity for appointing senators cost dems seats in the senate in 2009

    Did it? As I recall, the Dems had 60 seats until Ted Kennedy adjourned to the Great Cloakroom in the Sky.

    Paul Kirk (a Dem) held the seat until alarm at the ACA elected Scott Brown and put the GOP filibuster back in play.

    Dave (1bb933)

  141. More levity:

    John Hayward
    @Doc_0
    ·
    Years of Democrats screaming about Orange Hitler the racist white supremacist misogynist caveman, and in the end Trump increased his margins with every group except two: white men, and people who count the votes in Democrat strongholds
    _ _

    John Hayward
    @Doc_0

    America: boldly sailing into the future on a wave of high technology and oh by the way we have to stop counting votes in Democrat states in the dead of night for the first time ever for no reason that anyone can explain
    _

    harkin (7fb4c9)

  142. It’s not official yet, but it looks like Joe Biden is going to win, even without the rigged vote counting in Pennsylvania. And so now our esteemed host will have gotten his wish: a fairly decent man in office rather than an [{insert slang term for the rectum here] but then he’ll spend the next four years bemoaning the policies of the man for whom he campaigned on this site and for whom he said he would vote.

    For the conservative Never Trumpers, many, many bandages will be needed to staunch the flow of blood from their faces where their noses used to be.

    The Dana in Kentucky (2e5280)

  143. Biden has surpassed Clinton’s popular vote margin of 2.1%. Hard to predict, but I imagine it will go up another point or two, putting it near the lower end of the range of pre-election polls.

    The last IBD/TIPP nation poll had Biden +3 in a four-way race, and +4 in a 2-way race.

    The final IBD/TIPP poll in 2016 had Trump +2.

    Dave (1bb933)

  144. They should have designed a special “butterfly ballot” for counties with large numbers of senior citizens and first-time voters.

    I don’t remember seeing any explanation for how “people were confused by the butterfly ballot” turned into “people in these particular counties had extraordinary difficulty punching their ballots clean through.”

    Radegunda (20775b)

  145. America: boldly sailing into the future on a wave of high technology and oh by the way we have to stop counting votes in Democrat states in the dead of night for the first time ever for no reason that anyone can explain

    Hmm, that’s very suspicious. It’s not like there was anything different or unique about this election, after all. Certainly not three or four times the typical number of absentee ballots, or anything of that nature!

    But which states “stopped counting”?

    MI, WI and PA counted and reported updates through the night. I saw them with my own eyes.

    Dave (1bb933)

  146. Interesting:

    Centrist Democrats talk leadership changes after negative election results

    Stung by their party’s dispiriting showing at the polls Tuesday, two moderate House Democrats say they and other centrists are privately discussing a plan that was unthinkable just 24 hours earlier: throwing their support behind a challenger to Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.).

    The two Democrats told The Hill on Wednesday that they were reaching out to their colleagues about backing one of Pelosi’s top lieutenants, House Democratic Caucus Chairman Hakeem Jeffries (N.Y.), for Speaker in the next Congress.

    “He’s the only one prepared and positioned” to be Speaker, said one of the Democratic lawmakers. “He bridges moderates and progressives better than anyone. And most importantly, he’s not Nancy Pelosi.

    The article goes on to say that Jeffries isn’t on-board with the idea, but it’s good to see politicians (maybe) taking steps to come to grips with the dysfunction in the present environment.

    “It’s time for Democrats to elevate a new generation of leadership in both the House and the Senate,” one of the Democrats told The Hill. “Americans are clearly afraid of ‘socialism,’ want safe streets and neighborhoods and to vote for people who they believe will help put more money in their pockets.

    “While Democratic policies can adequately address those issues,” the lawmaker added, “our messaging mechanism clearly cannot.”

    With the polarization reflected by the extremes of both parties (and their constituents), moderation won’t be an easy sell.

    Dave (1bb933)

  147. even though optical scanners don’t read them.

    Hoi Polloi,

    Please do not post unresearched misinformation on my site. What is your proof that optical scanners do not read Sharpies?

    “ As the presidential election and several other races in Arizona remain close, election officials stressed that voters’ ballots will be counted regardless of what kind of pen they used”

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.azcentral.com/amp/6162463002

    This is now the third time today that a Trump fan has posted pro-Trump misinformation alleging fraud, only to have me come along and disprove the claim.

    What the president is doing —- insinuating there has been fraud without evidence, and whipping up his supporters into a frenzy —- is evil. Do not aid this by spreading misinformation. I will start moderating people if it continues.

    Patterico (115b1f)

  148. It’s not official yet, but it looks like Joe Biden is going to win, even without the rigged vote counting in Pennsylvania. And so now our esteemed host will have gotten his wish: a fairly decent man in office rather than an [{insert slang term for the rectum here] but then he’ll spend the next four years bemoaning the policies of the man for whom he campaigned on this site and for whom he said he would vote.

    For the conservative Never Trumpers, many, many bandages will be needed to staunch the flow of blood from their faces where their noses used to be.

    The Dana in Kentucky (2e5280) — 11/4/2020 @ 3:57 pm

    1. Do you have evidence of fraud in PA?
    2. Do you not understand that some of us looked at Trump and Biden and determined that for reasons we’ve discussed before, that have nothing to do with Trump being a rectum, we decided Trump was worse?

    Time123 (6e0727)

  149. Patterico, Consider adding un-supported accusations of voter fraud to this list of misinformation. Our system works in large part because we believe it does. A casual assumption that it’s all fraud and cheating, based on no specific evidence is toxic to our democracy.

    Time123 (6e0727)

  150. It’s not official yet, but it looks like Joe Biden is going to win, even without the rigged vote counting in Pennsylvania

    What is your proof, Dana in Kentucky? This is what I am talking about. Prove it, take it back, or get moderated.

    I thought you approved of cheating anyway.

    Patterico (115b1f)

  151. Sorry, should have been Please consider. I meant it as a request, not a direction.

    Time123 (6e0727)

  152. Time123: I agree.

    Patterico (115b1f)

  153. LMAO crossposted.

    Time123 (6e0727)

  154. Please do not post unresearched misinformation on my site. What is your proof that optical scanners do not read Sharpies?

    Sorry, that has been a known question for a while and reported on last month, where the use of sharpies were questioned in elections in New Hampshire:

    https://www.nhpr.org/post/sharpie-gate-leaves-some-nh-voters-worried-they-spoiled-their-absentee-ballots#stream/0

    “As long as the bleed-through does not fill an oval on the other side of the ballot, it’s not going to be an issue,” Scanlan told local voter checklist supervisors on Oct. 7. “The machine is not going to read the bleed-through. It will only read the marks that are placed in the ovals. So we don’t see any real issues there, other than cosmetics.”

    So it can cause problems with some scanners. But your post seems to assuage that fear, at least in Arizona.

    I am not a “Trump fan,” rather a Catholic who votes Republican most of the time, Democrat some of the time. Thanks for the insinuation though!

    Hoi Polloi (66077a)

  155. Interesting:

    Centrist Democrats talk leadership changes after negative election results

    I’ve heard that song before. Someone will try to challenge Pelosi. They will lose.

    Hoi Polloi (66077a)

  156. The PA gap should close some w/the Philly numbers coming in- which is expected- but every energy producing state has gone to Trump; can’t see PA breaking that trend -especially w/t mail-in votes made after Biden’s fracking gaffes in the debate. It just doesn’t fit.

    OTOH, Arizonians may just be giving payback to The Donald for peeing in McCain’s coffee when alive then pissing on his grave. But glad Kelly won. The Senate needs an astronaut who has seen the world in the proper perspective.

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  157. e bleed-through to the other side of the ballot is never in a bubble. Voters were told that the machines only read the darkest marks.

    Unfortunately, the people telling the voters that are not the programmers who developed the OCR system. It’s very tough to code a machine to read this mark, but not that mark. OCR for any type of handwritten mark, letter, or symbol is tough.

    Hoi Polloi (66077a)

  158. Best comedy act today- Rudy Giuliani.

    If you haven’t seen him short-circuiting on camera [‘you think we’re foolish?!?!’] Catch it on any news channel– no cover; five drink minimum.

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  159. The Senate needs an astronaut who has seen the world in the proper perspective.
    DCSCA (797bc0) — 11/4/2020 @ 4:51 pm

    You mean the Chinese side?

    https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/05/14/senate-elections-2020-mark-kelly-business-ties-chinese-tech-firm-under-fire/5187587002/

    Hoi Polloi (66077a)

  160. @159. Wouldn’t worry about him; I’m biased; have friends who know him personally; Jersey kid; Naval aviator; astronaut. Gve me a t-shirt from his last shuttle flight signed and I have it framed up in the living room.

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  161. CNN reporter says Arizona expected make two ‘dumps’ today.

    Flushed with pride.

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  162. @159. Wouldn’t worry about him; I’m biased; have friends who know him personally; Jersey kid; Naval aviator; astronaut. Gve me a t-shirt from his last shuttle flight signed and I have it framed up in the living room.
    DCSCA (797bc0) — 11/4/2020 @ 4:59 pm

    I’m more worried about the Chinese and their growing influence. I’m sure Biden will talk tough with the same country that helped enrich the Democrat party in the 1990s and his son more recently.

    Hoi Polloi (66077a)

  163. If we could get Biden to give you a T-shirt, would you shut up?

    Dave (1bb933)

  164. It’s the day after the election and CV19 didn’t go away.
    Yesterday: 94,467 new cases, 1,187 deaths
    Today: 105,990 new cases, 1,191 deaths

    Paul Montagu (77c694)

  165. If we could get Biden to give you a T-shirt, would you shut up?
    Dave (1bb933) — 11/4/2020 @ 5:02 pm

    Easy, tough guy. If you don’t want to read my posts, don’t.

    Hoi Polloi (66077a)

  166. My mail-in ballot had a “no pencil or magic marker” warning. On the other hand, the last time I voted at the precinct, they provided us with cheap (very cheap) felt tip pens. I remember because I had trouble with my write-ins.

    The reason for the pencil warning is obvious. I speculate that the magic marker warning is for bleed-through on the two-sided-page, folded, mail-in ballot, but not necessary for the one-sided, 11 x 17, unfolded stiff card, on-site ballot

    nk (1d9030)

  167. It’s very tough to code a machine to read this mark, but not that mark. OCR for any type of handwritten mark, letter, or symbol is tough.

    Oh come on. The marks on a ballot can only be in precisely known places.

    And its not doing OCR, it’s looking for an oval in a known place that’s darker than the other ovals in known places for the same office.

    Dave (1bb933)

  168. Easy, tough guy. If you don’t want to read my posts, don’t.

    LOL, wasn’t talking to you!

    Dave (1bb933)

  169. Hoi Polloi, at 157 — yes and no. If what you’re saying is “register and interpret marks in the area bounded by this rectangle and ignore marks in the area bounded by THAT rectangle”, it’s very very very easy to do.

    aphrael (4c4719)

  170. In 2012 I was working a hotline for people with polling place problems. Someone called in the guy at the desk next to me talking about how some voters were being given blue pens and some black pens and suggesting this might be a problem. Dude next to me had no idea what to do, I didn’t have a call at the time, so I ran down the user manual on the machine used in that county. Turns out it was fine, both were legit.

    My point here is that sometimes people see non-problems, think they are problems, and start social media firestorms before checking.

    aphrael (4c4719)

  171. @162. I’m not too worried about him–he turns 78 years old in just 16 days. Be more concerned about a President Harris– in 24 months or less. Remember, FDR was 63 when starting his 4th term. Biden would be 78.

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  172. 163.If we could get Biden to give you a T-shirt, would you shut up?

    Does he remember to wear one to match his shorts or go full commando, Davey?

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  173. Yep, I’d probably want to make sure Kamala Harris is synonymous with David Paterson (and he didnt deserve it nearly as much, but you know who called that shot).

    urbanleftbehind (cec660)

  174. @162. It’s going to be difficult to disengage from China abruptly anyway. It’s a relationship in work too long as is and they hold a lot of American T-Bills/debt etc. They’re more or less the new USSR to compete with. America needs a bad guy to play off of. If everybody in the world agreed w/t USA, America couldn’t compete on so many levels; w/cheap labor and so many other elements of modern life. Those cushy, post-war days whn the U.S. was the world colossus are over.

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  175. Remember, FDR was 63 when starting his 4th term. Biden would be 78.

    I’m not sure I’ll be able to remember that vitally important fact, so please be sure to mention it at least five ten times a day.

    Thanks.

    Dave (1bb933)

  176. Did Biden shower today? Elderly minds need to know.

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  177. When FDR was Biden’s age, it had been 15 years since his last shower.

    Dave (1bb933)

  178. I would feel better about the vote counting if they didn’t keep increasing their estimates of ballots left to process. I know, intellectually, that systemic cheating is very difficult but the endless stream of new ballots to process gives me pause.

    Looking the other way on signature verification is the thing that worries me most.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  179. I will come to the defense of the Comrade from the State Of Regular and Extra Crispy, and it’s not anything I have not already said. A system which allows ballots to be received after the closing of the polls on Election Day, except for good cause *shown*, such as military service abroad or a Postmaster General deliberately sabotaging timely delivery of mail, is “rigged” for the benefit of the irresponsible, indecisive, and dilatory, not to mention the lazy, slack, and sluggish.

    nk (1d9030)

  180. When FDR was Biden’s age, it had been 15 years since his last shower.

    He didn’t even live to collect Social Security.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  181. The Georgia Secretary of State proved he knew what he was talking about when he said Kemp had defeated Abrams, despite the Atlanta counties not having fully been counted. He is making the precise same claim as to Trump and to Perdue winning a majority.

    I’m not so sure. I think there is a significant chance that we will have a double runoff for the Perdue and Loeffler seats. The GOP will have to win both to retain control with Harris being the President of the Senate.

    Here again, by the way, we have a third party (Libertarian) fool who is hurting the GOP. Her name is Jorgensen and she has garnered enough votes (60K), imo, to make this far more interesting than it should be.

    Ed from SFV (f64387)

  182. Our esteemed host challenged me:

    It’s not official yet, but it looks like Joe Biden is going to win, even without the rigged vote counting in Pennsylvania

    What is your proof, Dana in Kentucky? This is what I am talking about. Prove it, take it back, or get moderated.

    Then moderate me! It’s your site, you can do as you wish. But it’s interesting that you, a vociferous conservative, now moderate other conservatives when they disagree with you.

    I thought you approved of cheating anyway.

    Oh, I do, I do, especially when it helps my side win. But there’s still my — possibly last — comment here, that for the conservative Never Trumpers, many, many bandages will be needed to staunch the flow of blood from their faces where their noses used to be.

    You even said it yourself, several months ago, that you knew the government would be a disaster if the Democrats won, and that you would complain about it, but you still preferred to have President Trump gone.

    The Dana in Kentucky (2e5280)

  183. @175. Gee,Davey, will make it easier for you to remember:

    Should Donald Trump get re-elected, he will be over 74 years old starting his second term in office on January 20, 2021.

    Should Joe Biden win, before he even would even start his first term in hardest job in the world [aside from motherhood] on January 20, 2021, he would be over 78 years old.

    Check out the ages of the dudes below and how old they were when they passed away– most were long out of office after serving as POTUS, yet still younger than Biden would be starting the gig and Trump going into his second term:

    George Washington, dead at 67.
    Thomas Jefferson, dead at 83.
    John Adams dead at 90.
    James Monroe, dead at 73.
    James Madison, dead at 85.
    William Henry Harrison, dead at 68.
    Andrew Jackson, dead at 78.
    John Quincy Adams, dead at 80.
    James K. Polk, dead at 53.
    Zachary Taylor, dead at 65.
    John Tyler, dead at 71.
    Martin Van Buren, dead at 79.
    Abraham Lincoln, dead at 56.
    James Buchanan, dead at 77.
    Franklin Pierce, dead at 64.
    Millard Fillmore, dead at 74.
    Andrew Johnson, dead at 66.
    James A. Garfield, dead at 49.
    Ulysses S. Grant, dead at 63.
    Chester A. Arthur, dead at 57.
    Rutherford B. Hayes, dead at 70.
    Benjamin Harrison, dead at 67.
    William McKinley, dead at 58.
    Grover Cleveland, dead at 71.
    Theodore Roosevelt, dead at 60.
    Warren G. Harding, dead at 57.
    Woodrow Wilson, dead at 67.
    William Howard Taft, dead at 72.
    Calvin Coolidge, dead at 60.
    Franklin D. Roosevelt, dead at 63.
    John F. Kennedy, dead at 46.
    Herbert Hoover, dead at 90.
    Dwight D. Eisenhower, dead at 78.
    Harry S. Truman, dead at 88.
    Lyndon B. Johnson, dead at 64.
    Richard Nixon, dead at 81.
    Ronald Reagan, dead at 93
    Gerald Ford, dead at 93.
    George H. W. Bush, dead at 94. – source, wikideadpesidents

    At 74, though energetic, Trump is clearly long in the tooth for the second term gig.
    At 78, to start as a POTUS, Biden would be alarmingly old for the gig, as well.

    Should Biden win, given his demeanor and medical history [that we know of] expect a President Harris in your future. If Trump wins a second term, given his bulk, diet and history [that we know of] a President Pence is not out of the realm possibility.

    They call this “data” in the Poli-Sci lab, Davey. Stick to counting neutrinos.

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  184. @180. LOLOLOLOL Dying with your mistress by your side is quite Trumpian, too.

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  185. Our Windy City barrister said:

    I will come to the defense of the Comrade from the State Of Regular and Extra Crispy,

    While I was acquainted with Colonel Sanders, I’m not a real fan of what passes for his chicken at KFC these days. Colonel Sanders sold the franchise and his name to John Y Brown, but, allegedly, didn’t sell the actual recipe!

    My darling bride (of 41 years, 5 months and 16 days) played in the University of Kentucky marching band, and she complained that whenever they traveled to an away football game, the host school always fed them Kentucky Fried Chicken. Still, she was better off than her best band friend, who was a vegetarian.

    The Dana in Kentucky (2e5280)

  186. Kevin M, at 178 — since they accept ballots postmarked by yesterday but received by Friday, of course the total number of ballots to be counted will go up.

    This is a normal process for a lot of states.

    aphrael (4c4719)

  187. Our esteemed host wrote:

    What is your proof, Dana in Kentucky? This is what I am talking about. Prove it, take it back, or get moderated.

    Did you not say, many times, that Donald Trump was a criminal? Yet he was never convicted of anything, and when the Democrats in the House of Representatives drew up Articles of Impeachment, they never charged him with breaking any actual laws.

    The Dana in Kentucky (2e5280)

  188. DCSCA, that’s a big part of why I didn’t support Biden in the primary, and why *had his opponent been a normal Republican* I would likely have voted third party. But, man, if i’ll vote for Ted Cruz in order to help deny Trump a delegate (which I did), i’ll certainly vote for Biden in order to help expel him from the oval office.

    aphrael (4c4719)

  189. Oh come on. The marks on a ballot can only be in precisely known places.

    They have to build in a fudge factor because not every ballot is printed and filled in precisely the same spot. They have to attempt to figure the differences in the printing/cutting of the paper ballots, which might shift ovals one way or the other, not to mention whether the ballot is marked fully and properly.

    I used to work on a project using OCR (granted, back in the late 1990s) and it sounded easy in theory, but never ended up working too well in practice.

    Sorry about the mix-up. Figured you were talking to me since your post was right after mine.

    Hoi Polloi (66077a)

  190. ll certainly vote for Biden in order to help expel him from the oval office.
    aphrael (4c4719) — 11/4/2020 @ 5:46 pm

    So my question to you and other conservatives/Republicans who voted for Biden to get rid of Trump…now what?

    Hoi Polloi (66077a)

  191. Remember, FDR was 63 when starting his 4th term. Biden would be 78.

    Could you go a little more slowly? I’m not very good with numbers.

    Now, I’m sure I read somewhere that Biden will turn 78 in a couple weeks.

    Since a presidential term is four years, wouldn’t that make him 90 when starting his 4th term?

    78 + (4 – 1) * 4 = 90

    I think that’s called “data” or something. At least it looks like data.

    I just want to make sure I’ve got this exactly right because it’s pretty advanced stuff.

    Dave (1bb933)

  192. As far as the House is concerned, the GOP is pretty much sweeping the competitive districts. All but two of the “tossups” have the GOP in the lead and those two are extremely close (formerly belonging to Katie Hill (CA) and Mia Love (UT)).

    On the leans-R side there are no upsets. On the leans-D side there are 10 GOP leaders, including one (NY-3) that was supposed to be a Democrat gimme. The GOP may pick up as many as 4 California House seats.

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-house.html

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  193. The mother of all Come To Jesus meetings with DCSCA’s least favorite recently re-elected R senators.

    urbanleftbehind (cec660)

  194. @188. If you step back from this period, it’s clearly a generational change in work over a decade and both these major parties have failed to cultivate the next generation of leaders. Pelosi, Schumer, Clinton[s] the Bush clan, etc.; insider-funded, ideologically spun, they cling to power and hang around on the stage too long– and the electorate has a lot of the responsibility for permitting it, too.

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  195. So my question to you and other conservatives/Republicans who voted for Biden to get rid of Trump…now what?

    I’m going to Disneyland!

    Err…as soon as it re-opens.

    Dave (1bb933)

  196. > They have to build in a fudge factor because not every ballot is printed and filled in precisely the same spot.

    Sure, but for a ballot this should be pretty simple, because the text on one side overlaps the voting bubbles on the other.

    >So my question to you and other conservatives/Republicans who voted for Biden to get rid of Trump…now what?

    you mistake me. I’m a (relatively nonpartisan) liberal who voted for Cruz in the 2016 primary (i reregistered as a republican after the democratic primary was over). For years I was technically a gay republican living in san francisco. :)

    I think what happens now is that Biden has to find a way to work with McConnell to govern from the center. From a conservative/republican perspective, this is ideal — Trump is gone but the Republicans can block anything they want. From a liberal perspective, on the other hand, this was a disaster, with getting rid of Trump as a (very important) silver lining.

    aphrael (4c4719)

  197. @191. You really don’t grasp it, do you Davey.

    Look! Over there, at #176. A neutrino got loose in the shower. Mop it up.

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  198. I think this election is the best outcome for Patterico and other #Never Trumpers… almost a Unicorn election.

    Biden in the Whitehouse means no more Trump.

    Establishment GOP will trying to relegate Trump the the sidelines.

    Meanwhile not only HOLDING the Senate, but actually GAINING house seats where the election SHATTERED the liberal left’s dream of expanding.

    I didn’t even think this was possible. Congrats.

    whembly (c30c83)

  199. 195.So my question to you and other conservatives/Republicans who voted for Biden to get rid of Trump…now what?

    Disneyland? Biden wants to ‘shut it down’ and kill Mickey Mouse.

    So continue to complain: it’s what fuels the ideology.

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  200. > The GOP may pick up as many as 4 California House seats.

    I doubt that.

    CA-48, Steel leeds by less than 2000 votes, and there was a big blue shift in late ballots last time. The state hasn’t published the unprocessed ballot report (https://electionresults.sos.ca.gov/unprocessed-ballots-status) yet, but it seems unlikely that a lead this small can survive.

    Same for CA-39.

    CA-25, which would technically be a D pickup because Garcia won the special election, Smith is leading, and there was a big blue shift in late ballots last time. I don’t see a way for Garcia to overcome it.

    CA-21, Valadao is winning by 3000 votes, and there wasn’t a huge blue shift in this district last time. I think that’s a realistic pickup shot.

    aphrael (4c4719)

  201. Arizona is tightening. CNN reporting Maracopa County returns live now.

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  202. Dammit on Garcia…though it may have been pushing it to run him statewide in 2022.

    urbanleftbehind (cec660)

  203. @193. Is Lindsey pitching or catching this season?

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  204. So my question to you and other conservatives/Republicans who voted for Biden to get rid of Trump…now what?

    My plan is to watch more stray-dog rescue videos and maybe some Italian films, such as the one with the best “Do you know who I am?” scene, which I just went looking for again yesterday.

    Radegunda (20775b)

  205. But seriously, I want Biden to lead the country out of this pandemic.

    Anything he does to legitimately advance that goal, he has my complete and total support.

    Beyond that, I expect him to do some things that I disagree with. In politics, sometimes to get things you want, you have to make concessions. Things will not be right in this country – especially the economy – until we beat the pandemic. That is mere common sense that a spoiled man-child has convinced half the country to reject.

    I am not willing to make concessions to corruption, indecency or assaults on the rule of law, however.

    I would like to see a return to competent, rational, moral governance and a president who shows respect for the office and its essential role in our society.

    Dave (1bb933)

  206. Here again, by the way, we have a third party (Libertarian) fool who is hurting the GOP. Her name is Jorgensen and she has garnered enough votes (60K), imo, to make this far more interesting than it should be.

    Nope. I voted for Jo Jorgensen in the end (so sorry, Little Aloha Sweetie), and I completely reject the idea that a vote for her ought to have somehow gone to Donald Trump. We’re back to our never-ending argument on whether or not voting is binary. I am among what I believe is the majority of readers and commenters here who say that it is not: no party or candidate deserves my vote; they must earn it. If 60,000 voters felt that Donald Trump (or Joe Biden for that matter) failed to earn their vote and therefore voted Libertarian, then they were simply exercising their prerogative as free citizens in this great republic of ours.

    JVW (ee64e4)

  207. 203. “Come on man…do you really want to deal with what comes out of there…can I at least get to sniff Elaine’s hair while…”

    urbanleftbehind (cec660)

  208. @206. Good for you. She’s only 62.

    ‘Jo Jorgensen (born Joanne Marie Jorgensen; May 1, 1957) is an American academic and libertarian political activist. Jorgensen is the Libertarian Party ‘s nominee for president of the United States in the 2020 election.’ – source, wikiyoungbloodandattractivetoo.com

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  209. Imagine how sh!tty Hillary must feel- this ancient, 47 year government swamp creature; a 78 year swamp-gassy-fart; a genuine ‘U.F. Joe’ – may just have done what a crusty old feminist couldn’t do– beat The Donald.

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  210. Interesting info out of AZ though…

    According to NYT, small update to AZ, 74,288 votes added. Trump gets 59% to Biden’s 41% of these votes. Lead for Biden down from 92817 to 79173. This would still leave approx 525k votes. Trump gettin the margin he needs in this first batch. IF he hovers around that margin with the remaining votes, he does have a good chance to win AZ.

    whembly (c30c83)

  211. From the fly landing on Pence’s head, to the titular homes of Buggsy Siegel and Pittsburgh Phil possibly deciding the outcome, this has been a weirdly ominous election.

    nk (1d9030)

  212. Wow–Arizona is efinitly tightening; CNN reports there’s only a 0.6% difference now between Biden and Trump in AZ.

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  213. @206

    So, by voting for Jo Jorgensen I placed myself in company with you and Kevin, two people I highly respect. This is a satisfactory state of affairs.

    norcal (a5428a)

  214. To me the Dems and whomever ends up running this whole mess we have should look at the gains made by Trump in the Hispanic sectors. Especially along the Rio Grande Valley. A Democrat stronghold much of it supported Trump. Illegal immigration is a real concern for those who have come here legally, born here 1st generation etc. they see their communities destroyed by the human trafficking, the drug trade and gangs. Most of the Hispanics I speak with personally do not find immigration laws being enforced as racist. Those who have immigrated came here to escape corruption and law looking the other way.

    Marci (405d43)

  215. @205 Fortunately there is very little that I want from Biden. I want a cohesive COVID policy. I want him to fix the corruption Trump introduced into a lot of our government agencies and hire people who know what the he!! they are doing, instead of people who order a $20,000 desk. I would like them to fix all the invasive leftover patriot act stuff and FISA etc, probably including getting rid of Homeland Security because we have far more than enough intelligence agencies already. I would like an infrastructure plan. I would also like it if they reduced the ever increasing national debt, though I don’t have much confidence that anyone will ever do that.

    Nic (896fdf)

  216. @210. Yeah, it’s really really tightening there.

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  217. Nope. I voted for Jo Jorgensen in the end (so sorry, Little Aloha Sweetie), and I completely reject the idea that a vote for her ought to have somehow gone to Donald Trump.

    That’s fair, except when only conservatives have the option to toss their vote. The Green Party candidate was kept off the ballot in PA and WI.

    beer ‘n pretzels (042d67)

  218. 205.But seriously, I want Biden to lead the country out of this pandemic.

    How? It’s airborne. His repeatedly shouted solution: “Shutdown the virus.”

    That’s just stupid— and by your own words: “This leads me to propound Dave’s Special Theory of Stupidity: No matter how many stupid people you count, there are always more. And, its corollary, Dave’s General Theory of Stupidity: You can never count all the stupid people.”

    You can’t control Mother Nature nor shutdown a space shuttle SRB once it’s lit.

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  219. That’s fair, except when only conservatives have the option to toss their vote. The Green Party candidate was kept off the ballot in PA and WI.

    What kept Trump from challenging Joregensen’s nominating petitions? He had reached his lifetime limit of lawsuits at 4,000?

    The Green Party candidate was kept off the ballot in PA and WI.

    By the Mysterious Dark Force from the Eighth Dimension that keeps parties off ballots?

    nk (1d9030)

  220. CNN reports there’s only a 0.6% difference now between Biden and Trump in AZ.

    No.

    Dave (1bb933)

  221. What kept Trump from challenging Joregensen’s nominating petitions? He had reached his lifetime limit of lawsuits at 4,000?

    Rudy was too busy getting Kanye on the ballot and tucking in his shirt after quickies with Kazakh chicks.

    Dave (1bb933)

  222. I would like them to fix all the invasive leftover patriot act stuff and FISA etc,

    From what I hear, the FBI did a bang-up job of abiding by FISA court standards under Obama, so I’m sure Biden will fix all the problems with FISA applications that have happened under Trump.

    I want a cohesive COVID policy.

    Like what, a nationwide mask mandate? Who will enforce it at the federal level? Who will enforce it at the state/local level – police? Sure, that’s who the Democrats want doing that right now.

    I would like an infrastructure plan.

    What has stopped Pelosi and the House from appropriating funds for infrastructure?

    Hoi Polloi (66077a)

  223. “By the Mysterious Dark Force from the Eighth Dimension that keeps parties off ballots?”

    If by Mysterious Dark Force you mean the usual barrister elbow grease, yep:

    https://apnews.com/article/pennsylvania-elections-election-2020-court-decisions-archive-522d38d81a44019588d86be8466dc9c3

    Democrats on Thursday signaled their intent to appeal a lower court decision ordering election officials to put the Green Party’s candidate for president on the ballot in the battleground state of Pennsylvania.

    They filed an intent to appeal the case to the state Supreme Court, where the Democratic majority-panel will could decide the last remaining legal hangup before ballots can be mailed out to voters who applied for one.

    The Democrats’ protest targets what they say are disqualifying irregularities in how the Green Party candidates for president and vice president filed affidavits that accompany paperwork to get them on the ballot.

    And, amazingly, the appeal to a Dem majority panel worked! Wow, shocka.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/green-party-pennsylvania-ballot-election/2020/09/17/666db0c4-f8f9-11ea-a275-1a2c2d36e1f1_story.html

    beer ‘n pretzels (042d67)

  224. That’s fair, except when only conservatives have the option to toss their vote. The Green Party candidate was kept off the ballot in PA and WI.

    Yep. I mentioned that on my pre-Election Day post. Democrats, who like to pretend that they are all for voting and providing choices, sure can act cynically when they need to. Of that there is no doubt.

    JVW (ee64e4)

  225. From the WaPo article linked @223:

    The Pennsylvania Supreme Court on Thursday blocked the Green Party presidential ticket from state ballots, allowing state and local election officials to resume preparations for Nov. 3 and mail voting.

    The court ruled that presidential contender Howie Hawkins and his running mate, Angela Walker, did not qualify for the ballot because the party did not submit signed filing papers in person, as required by state rules.

    Rule of Law! LOL

    beer ‘n pretzels (042d67)

  226. @220. Yeah: CNN; Fake News. LOLOLOLOL

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  227. @224. I’m quite open to aligning w/another party that’s not one of the majors anymore. The Ds & Rs have screwed this up so badly over the past few decades. They’ve made this system into the laughing stock of the world.

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  228. @220. My error- Nevada, not AZ.

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  229. 223 and 225. I knew all that. That is how it’s done. In fact, I assisted as a volunteer lawyer in a political campaign to do it to a primary opponent one time. Trump could have done it to the Libertarians. He did not.

    nk (1d9030)

  230. @222 Things I want and things I get are often different things, but I can want what I want regardless.

    From what I hear, the FBI did a bang-up job of abiding by FISA court standards under Obama, so I’m sure Biden will fix all the problems with FISA applications that have happened under Trump.

    I had also hoped this might happen under Trump, especially given the ways in which the FISA laws had worked against him, but it didn’t happen there either, so I get to keep hoping.

    I want a cohesive COVID policy.

    Like what, a nationwide mask mandate? Who will enforce it at the federal level? Who will enforce it at the state/local level – police? Sure, that’s who the Democrats want doing that right now.

    A nationwide mask mandate isn’t legal, which you know (and so does Biden). Lets start small: I would like the government and the NIH to be at least roughly on the same damn page as far as risk factors, treatments, vaccine, etc.

    I would like an infrastructure plan.

    What has stopped Pelosi and the House from appropriating funds for infrastructure?

    Not a thing theoretically, though possibly the Senate in practice, which doesn’t stop me from wanting it.

    These are things that I want, that Trump hasn’t given me, so I can now hope for them from Biden because while I know that I don’t get to have them from Trump, there still remains the possibility I can have them from Biden.

    Nic (896fdf)

  231. 228…Quit it, Karl Rove

    urbanleftbehind (cec660)

  232. Kevin M, at 178 — since they accept ballots postmarked by yesterday but received by Friday, of course the total number of ballots to be counted will go up.

    Really, mailing at the last minute ought not to work. They tell you not to do that, and yet….

    It would NOT work in my state … you have to drop it off at the polls in that case. That some courts extended this because they could (not because they SHOULD) has already been to the Supreme Court once. Talk about causing disrespect for the integrity of the vote.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  233. That I seem to be siding with Trump is not actually true. I just believe that the rules should not be changed by judges just because they can. Having discretion does not mean you must use it.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  234. Sigh. Getting rid of Trump is the pot of gold. The trip around Cape Horn; the price of shovels, dungarees, and eggs; the gamblers, pimps, and madams on Nob Hill; the trip back home; those are all incidental.

    nk (1d9030)

  235. Here again, by the way, we have a third party (Libertarian) fool who is hurting the GOP.

    I’ve long said the LP motto should be “Electing socialists since 1976.” Then again I voted for JoJo this time.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  236. Nate Silver estimates the popular vote margin will end up at about Biden +4.3, based on where uncounted votes are.

    It was HRC +2.1 in 2016.

    Dave (1bb933)

  237. I’m still amazed that the GOP House are making gains…and the fact that this election the main movement here was a new GOP trifecta in New Hampshire(!!) might be the most stunning bit if trivia in a generally confounding night.

    whembly (c30c83)

  238. Biden: “I have a 90-minute speech to give, I’m not feeling well, it’s 33 degrees and it’s sleeting. What do you think, Kamala?”
    Kamala: “I think you should show them you’re not afraid of a little rain. What’s the worst that could happen? Break a leg!”

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  239. @226 JVW I did not claim a binary choice. However, most Libertarians have a conservative (politically) streak, not a statist one. They are much more likely to go for a GOP candidate over a Dem.

    In GA, if they had no reasonable alternative whatsoever, the clear difference between DJT and Biden on the 2nd Amendment was stark would motivate a good percentage of them to vote Orange. It is much more likely DJT would have picked up another 20K net votes out of the 60K, than not.

    With each passing hour, it is becoming very obvious that Perdue will not have a majority. The question is now becoming if Ossoff can get one. If he does, the Senate is Dem.

    Ed from SFV (f64387)

  240. Hannity’s “Corrupt Institution” segment was completely irresponsible.

    Paul Montagu (77c694)

  241. Nate Silver estimates the popular vote margin will end up at about Biden +4.3, based on where uncounted votes are.

    Which is why Biden will win. But I want him to win with the effing narrowest sliver of a lack of a mandate.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  242. Hannity’s “Corrupt Institution” segment was completely irresponsible.

    Extraneous words removed.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  243. Trump cruises in Ohio but loses Arizona? Imagine the irony if it is the state of John McCain and John Kyl Jeff Flake that denies him a second term

    The reason for this (and the smaller margin in Texas) of course, is immigration policy.

    Children of illegal residents eventually grow up. And make friends. The “Dreamers” make friends too.

    This could be the factor that cost Trump the presidency. One state. And it didn’t help in Nevada. Or New Mexico, for that matter, but that, and Colorado, was already lost starting in 2008.

    Sammy Finkelman (125d6f)

  244. I’m going to Disneyland!

    Err…as soon as it re-opens.

    Shanghai Disneyland is open.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  245. aphrael–

    The blue shift in absentees was due to the surprise new ballot harvesting law, which the Democrat Party prepared for in advance of the enabling law. It was a one-off. I’m going out on a limb here, but I think that usage of mail-in and drop-off ballots is higher this time and more evenly spread.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  246. Arizona was also helped by a weed referendum which helped deliver MI to Whitmer in 2018. Also the northern industrial tier of Ohio has been rapidly depopulating relative to Columbus’ minor gains and Cincinnati’s stasis. Columbus cant make up for the reddening remnant in the north.

    urbanleftbehind (cec660)

  247. And the districts involved are long-time GOP districts that are still rated +R. It’s only to be expected some return. Just like happened here in NM-2, where the freshman D was turfed by more than 20%

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  248. According to NYT, small update to AZ, 74,288 votes added. Trump gets 59% to Biden’s 41% of these votes.

    Trump’s people have been claiming all along that Fox’s call was fubar, that the Maricopa County ballots outstanding were all day-of or drop-off, and they had the only game-day GOTV.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  249. This election was close enough that we who honor the lives and deeds of Lincoln and Reagan, and who refused to sell our souls to Trump, can be proud that yesterday, when America needed us, we were there to make the difference, and save the Republic we love.

    This story shall the good man teach his son;
    And Crispin Crispian Election Day shall ne’er go by,
    From this day to the ending of the world,
    But we in it shall be rememberèd—
    We few, we happy few, we band of brothers

    Sic semper tyrannis

    😉

    Dave (1bb933)

  250. More ballots from AZ @ 10PM PST.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  251. Yeah, well, a lot of election days come and gone where Harry and his band would have been useful.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  252. those are all incidental.

    Ends vs means?

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  253. The court ruled that presidential contender Howie Hawkins and his running mate, Angela Walker, did not qualify for the ballot because the party did not submit signed filing papers in person, as required by state rules.

    Letter of the Law for you, discretion for me.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  254. Prediction: Given the gains, or at least holds, the GOP has had it should be possible to mend the rift. Except of course for those that LIKE rifts.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  255. These returns trickling in are so razor thin– the pollsters really blew their credibility for good this time and the media really has failed w/their projections, too.

    This reminds me a lot of the Nixon/JFK election in ’60. I’m afraid I’m old enough to recall that election night and watching the returns w/t parents and grandparents. [In Allegheny County, Davey.] Grandmother was staunchly for Nixon; [she even backed Dewey/Warren in ’48- found a bag of campaign buttons in her dresser after she’d passed]; grandfather was staunchly for JFK as was Dad; Mom was for Nixon– [as she really liked Ike and penned a note to Mamie after he passed– and she answered.]

    It was quite a night memorable night with such slim margins. Trump could still win this– but the squeak is really getting tight and the window is closing. Fun and fascinating to watch.

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  256. So, who’ll be the first lucky pardon recipient, hmm?

    Dave (1bb933)

  257. @256. Donald John Trump, of course.

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  258. I assume that pardoning himself will be Trump’s final official act, just to make sure that all the others are covered.

    Dave (1bb933)

  259. Time123 @3

    Joe’s a moderate that doesn’t really want to do all that lefty stuff?

    Of course he id. Or else he would not have done things he did. Like give Clarence Thomas a fair hearing in 1991. (and initially not wanting to make that public at all.)

    The trouble is, he feels compelled to not break ranks with his party’s majority.
    You can see how he tries to make positions he feels compelled to join in more reasonable.

    And he didn’t really want to name Kamala Harris as his Vice President. (He was dummb enough to think Susan Rice was a good idea, though)

    JVW (ee64e4) — 11/4/2020 @ 11:31 am

    Joe’s a cipher who is drawn along by whatever everyone around him believes at any given moment.

    Not a cipher. I assume he has thoughts. He just doesn’t want to break ranks.

    JVW (ee64e4) — 11/4/2020 @ 11:42 am

    Woe unto President Joe, who will have to face the wrath of The Squad and their crazy Uncle Bernie when he compromises on major legislation.

    No, they won’t. A president, after all, can only sign or veto what passes Congress.

    They will only blame Republicans in Congress, which is much more useful for their re-election campaigns or to attempt to get a majority.

    JVW (ee64e4) — 11/4/2020 @ 11:49 am

    I am truly disinterested in the result,

    Disinterested? Wouldn’t it be better to say you don’t consider yourself wise enough to decide which fork in the rad would ultimately be better?

    Or that you don;t want the responsibility of picking one out of two bad choices?

    and even more so now that it appears the GOP will hold the Senate (and perhaps pick up House seats!).

    That makes the Biden outcome definitely less bad. Oversight capability exists, for one thing. And, if Biden wants, they’ll stop trying to prove the Republicans badly evil.

    Sammy Finkelman (125d6f)

  260. @256 a blanket pardon for all potential federal crime for everyone in the Trump administration.

    What? You don’t think Trump would be that ballsy?

    whembly (c30c83)

  261. @258. You still don’t get him; when was the last time Donald Trump put himself last?

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  262. Twitter is an absolute shit-show tonight, folks, just in case any of you were tempted to venture over there and take a peek. You have righties talking about massive voter fraud and lefties talking about arresting Mitch McConnell and forcing Republicans into a Truth and Reconciliation committee. It’s not for the faint-hearted.

    JVW (ee64e4)

  263. @262 Yeah, it’s lit right now.

    I’m mainly poll watching AZ.

    whembly (c30c83)

  264. @262. No Twitter. No Facebook. Fully informed.

    My data isn’t free.

    Buy me! 😉

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  265. 39.

    I no longer see a viable method of reaching 269-269.
    JVW (ee64e4) — 11/4/2020 @ 12:24 pm

    If Biden wins Georgia and Trump wins the rest (i.e., PA, AZ, NV and NC) it’s 269-269.

    lurker (d8c5bc)

  266. Twitter is an absolute shit-show tonight, folks, just in case any of you were tempted to venture over there and take a peek.

    Dave’s General Theory of Stupidity, writ large.

    Dave (1bb933)

  267. Your potty mouth got me moderated again, JVW…

    Dave (1bb933)

  268. Heh… some early wargaming should Cocaine Mitch push to “denuclearlize the filibuster”:
    https://hotair.com/archives/ed-morrissey/2020/11/04/deep-thoughts-can-senate-un-nuked/

    whembly (c30c83)

  269. This from O’Keefe< alleging fraud in MI (hand-stamping and back-dating ballots in the Post Office):

    https://twitter.com/jamesokeefeiii/status/1324174186366074880

    Not exactly "proof", just an accusation. But it's the kind of thing that you can get if you allow late arriving ballots based on postmark.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  270. should Cocaine Mitch push to “denuclearlize the filibuster”

    Allowing the Democrat minority to filibuster Biden’s nominees isn’t exactly largess.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  271. 241. Kevin M (ab1c11) — 11/4/2020 @ 7:14 pm

    ….Biden will win. But I want him to win with the effing narrowest sliver of a lack of a mandate.

    270 to 268.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/04/us/biden-nebraska-electoral-college.html

    Could Omaha Swing the Race? In 2020, Nothing Is Impossible. </i

    The lone Electoral College vote awarded by Nebraska’s Second Congressional District has gone to Joe Biden. It could be the vote that gets him to 270…

    …On Wednesday, as tense ballot counting droned on, it was apparent how important that solo electoral vote was in a district in the middle of the country.

    Mr. Biden notched victories in Michigan and Wisconsin. Arizona and Nevada were still counting ballots, though Democrats projected confidence in their chances. Pennsylvania was likely to take longer. By late in the afternoon, doing the math, that single Nebraska vote seemed as if it would put Mr. Biden up to 270.

    Much to the delight of Omaha’s Democrats, and the chagrin of the rest of the state.

    Nebraska as a whole is overwhelmingly Republican, but Omaha has tilted slowly left in past years and in significant ways since 2008, when Barack Obama captured the Second District’s vote….

    …The Second District, which encompasses much of Omaha’s metropolitan area, in many ways is a miniature portrait of the nation…

    …Most politicians consider the district moderate, tilting left but not too left, a perception borne out by its congressional election results that show the Republican Don Bacon emerging as the winner against Kara Eastman, a progressive Democrat, whom he attacked as a “radical socialist” in television ads that dominated the airwaves in the run-up to the election.

    At a rally in Omaha last week that drew thousands, as well as in a phone call last weekend, President Trump ordered Mr. Bacon to deliver the district for him. “I’ll tell you, you better get me on Omaha, you understand that?” Mr. Trump said at the rally. In the end, Mr. Bacon did not succeed.

    Mr. Bacon has, in part, blamed Mr. Trump’s tone — his tweets in particular — for the president’s defeat in the district….

    ,,,, Mr. Bacon also was endorsed by his predecessor and former rival, Brad Ashford, a Democrat.

    Besides his recent rally, Mr. Trump sent campaign staff members and surrogates to Omaha. Mr. Biden’s campaign invested heavily in the district as well, ultimately sending a team of about 20 — and had surrogates who hammered home a message that he would be a president for all Nebraskans, not just Democrats.

    …South Omaha, a diverse neighborhood with a sizable Latino population, had among the highest case counts of Covid-19 in the city, Mr. Vargas said. The area once drew European immigrants to its slaughterhouses, but the work force in the meatpacking plants in the area now is largely Latino and includes immigrants from African countries and elsewhere.

    Sammy Finkelman (125d6f)

  272. I’d like to see it 270-268 and AOC gets one of her acolytes in as an Elector, threatening to send it to the House unless Biden agrees to ______________

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  273. @268. It’s easy enough to do. Watch a PO worker in my own PO hand stamp two ballots from elderly couple who were told the didn’t need to pay for postage.

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  274. @271. You mean Harris. She would be the big winner in this. Less prepared than even Spiro– or Dan.

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  275. lurker (d8c5bc) — 11/4/2020 @ 7:59 pm

    If Biden wins Georgia and Trump wins the rest (i.e., PA, AZ, NV and NC) it’s 269-269.

    Because Arizona [11] + Nevada [4] = 17 and Georgia = 16. But that’s unlikely.

    I see you’re assigning Michigan and Wisconsin to Biden.

    Sammy Finkelman (125d6f)

  276. This leads me to propound Dave’s Special Theory of Stupidity: No matter how many stupid people you count, there are always more.

    And, its corollary, Dave’s General Theory of Stupidity: You can never count all the stupid people.
    Dave (1bb933) — 11/4/2020 @ 11:52 am

    One of the few things I recall from H.S. physics is Dave’s Stupidity Principle: The precision with which one can know the location of a stupid person varies inversely with the precision with which one knows how stupid he is.

    lurker (d8c5bc)

  277. lurker (d8c5bc) — 11/4/2020 @ 8:17 pm

    Oh my!

    :)

    Dave (1bb933)

  278. 272, Kevin M (ab1c11) — 11/4/2020 @ 8:10 pm

    I’d like to see it 270-268 and AOC gets one of her acolytes in as an Elector, threatening to send it to the House unless Biden agrees to ______________

    Biden doesn’t. The house temporarily deadlocks, and the Senate elects Mike Pence as Vice President.

    Or maybe Kamala Harris gets 270, and Biden does not. In that case, the House quickly elects Biden.

    Sammy Finkelman (125d6f)

  279. I see you’re assigning Michigan and Wisconsin to Biden.

    Old news.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  280. Actually, I’d have him make her Secretary of the Interior, then fire her right after she resigned her House seat.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  281. Trump supporters chant ‘count the votes’ in Arizona

    There just has to be a group chanting ‘stop the count’ somewhere in PA …

    Dave (1bb933)

  282. And here’s the 2020 election documentary to go with it.

    lurker (d8c5bc)

  283. Those are all incidental.

    Ends vs means?

    Kevin M (ab1c11) — 11/4/2020 @ 7:36 pm

    Eye on the prize.

    nk (1d9030)

  284. “There just has to be a group chanting ‘stop the count’ somewhere in PA …”

    Here you go, in glorious splitscreen:

    https://twitter.com/therecount/status/1324200240694648834

    Davethulhu (284dab)

  285. If Biden wins Georgia and Trump wins the rest (i.e., PA, AZ, NV and NC) it’s 269-269.

    Oh, good one! Hope springs eternal.

    JVW (ee64e4)

  286. If Biden wins Georgia, Stacey Abrams will lose my vote as “Most Overhyped Media Darling of the Election Season”. She will have been justly hyped.

    nk (1d9030)

  287. > It was a one-off. I’m going out on a limb here, but I think that usage of mail-in and drop-off ballots is higher this time and more evenly spread.

    Except that the blue shift in late counted votes has been a thing since 2008 at least. It was more pronounced last year but it wasn’t new.

    I think you’re right that it’s more evenly distributed this year, but I doubt it is *evenly* distributed. If nothing else, provisionals *always* run democratic, but … they still haven’t published the unprocessed ballot report, so who knows how many there are, and where?

    aphrael (4c4719)

  288. Given the way the polls massively understated Trump’s chances, are they this year’s “Russia”? How many wavering Trump voters — people who preferred Trump even though they abhorred the man — decided to cast that vote for Jo Jorgenson or Mickey Mouse (or even Joe Biden) rather than soil themselves by voting for Trump. Would they have done it if they thought it might matter? It will turn out to be very few votes making the ultimate difference, just as it was in 2016.

    Was there (shall we say it?) collusion?

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  289. If nothing else, provisionals *always* run democratic

    And, for the first time same-day registration is a thing in Dem supermajority CA.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  290. It’s a good thing they didn’t allow 5-year-olds to vote, or whatever that initiative was.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  291. Most Overhyped Media Darling

    Overinflated, perhaps.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  292. Will Nancy Pelosi be challenged for “Speaker” job by AOC?

    Knickerbocker Slobberknocker (27d313)

  293. “Whatever happens, Donald Trump is the current and future leader of the Republican party. Certainly until at least someone else comes along with his stamina, charisma, and drive.”

    — Laura Ingraham

    lurker (d8c5bc)

  294. As expected, when poll workers began counting mail-in ballots last night and throughout today, Trump’s illusory election day lead evaporated in several key states. Biden now leads in Arizona and Nevada, and is on the verge of gaining a lead in Georgia and Pennsylvania. Right now he is only 17 electoral college votes from 270. There are still hundreds of thousands of ballots yet to be counted.

    Trump spent the day calling governors, angrily demanding they stop counting votes in states where he’s leads and keep counting votes in states where he’s behind. He’s also filing lawsuits and demanding recounts.

    The states have laws that require a mandatory recount if the margin of victory is below a defined percentage point, usually .5 to 1 percent of the electorate. If the margin of victory is not within the defined percentage point, there will be no recount. The president cannot order a state to recount votes. If the margin of victory is within the legislated percentage points, it’s automatic. Otherwise the vote tally is certified.

    Biden has been quietly building a war chest for legal fees in the upcoming court battles. We’ll know more by Thursday or Friday, but the next weeks are going to be contentious and litigious.

    For now it looks like Biden will win the presidency, the Republicans will retain the Senate and gain seats in the House but not achieve a majority. So, 2021 will begin with a Democratic White House and House of Representatives, and a Republican Senate.

    Americans are quirky voters. They seem to prefer a divided government, with each party keeping the other in check. I happen to agree with that, because one party rule never works. I mean, look at what happened when the Republicans had the White House and a majority in both chambers of Congress. What did they accomplish? Not much, other than pass a tax bill and appoint judges.

    This election was a lot closer than I expected. There has been little reporting on governorships and state legislatures, because everyone is focused on the presidential race. Everything will become clearer in the coming weeks, after all the legitimate ballots have been counted. Then we will know what kind of democratic republic we have elected.

    My concern is that the Republicans have not repudiated Trump. Perhaps they will once he’s out of office, but I doubt it. The cancer has metastasized. The midterms are going to be as contentious as this election.

    Gawain's Ghost (b25cd1)

  295. There’ll be a lot of media soon-to-be-has-beens clinging to their meal ticket like remoras on a shark’s snout.

    nk (1d9030)

  296. “Whatever happens, Donald Trump is the current and future leader of the Republican party. Certainly until at least someone else comes along with his stamina, charisma, and drive.”

    Alrighty then, NY State can have him.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  297. Trump spent the day calling governors, angrily demanding they stop counting votes in states where he’s leads and keep counting votes in states where he’s behind. He’s also filing lawsuits and demanding recounts.

    What color is the sky in his universe? Although I do not share Ghost’s partisan beliefs about how Trump’s votes are crumbing. He’s gained quite a bit in AZ with a lot more votes to come. Still, the idea that he’s going to win PA, NC, GA, and AZ or NV is pretty much impossible. Then again, I never thought it would be this close.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  298. My concern is that the Republicans have not repudiated Trump. Perhaps they will once he’s out of office, but I doubt it. The cancer has metastasized. The midterms are going to be as contentious as this election.

    Hey, how about we count THESE votes first, m’OK?

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  299. This.

    https://reason.com/2020/11/04/can-donald-trump-really-be-this-clueless-about-how-elections-work/

    I don’t do partisan, Kevin M. Partisanship is not patriotism. I believe in independent thought. I vote for or against a candidate regardless of party. I didn’t leave the Republican party, which I have often supported for most of my life, the Republican party left me. I didn’t join the Democratic party, although I did vote mostly Democratic this year. I’ve always been a conservative libertarian, or a classical liberal if you will, and I voted Libertarian where I could. The only reason I voted for Biden was to repudiate Trump.

    Gawain's Ghost (b25cd1)

  300. @298. Alrighty then, NY State can have him.

    He lives in Florida now. It went for Trump. 😉

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  301. with his stamina, charisma, and drive

    So much charisma that it drove a considerable number of people away from the party. It’s hard for me to understand how anyone would even want to be in the same room as Trump.

    Radegunda (20775b)

  302. It will be interesting frightening to see what the dynamic in the GOP is.

    I have the impression that Biden and McConnell, left to their own devices, could do business together, and the country would be better off as a result.

    But the hotheads in the Congress, on FoxNews, and in TrumpWorld all have a vested interest in seeing things get even worse – opposing necessary pandemic measures, tying up Biden’s nominees to “own the libs” and leave the government unstaffed, grandstanding in hearings, etc.

    They’ll try to gain cred with Trump’s cultists by acting like Trump, and praising Trump, and repeating what Trump says on FoxNews and doing what Trump tells them, because who wouldn’t want a base of fanatics that don’t care in the least if you go out and shoot someone on Fifth Avenue?

    I imagine Cotton and/or Hawley will aim to take Trump’s place, either as Great Leader themselves, or his acolytes.

    Dave (1bb933)

  303. But the hotheads in the Congress, on FoxNews, and in TrumpWorld all have a vested interest in seeing things get even worse

    Yeah, maybe they’ll spend two years chasing a collusion conspiracy theory, then some impeachment stuff, then cheer on a pandemic “gift” — but that would be beyond the pale even for Trump cultists.

    beer ‘n pretzels (042d67)

  304. Biden is now 7 electoral votes short of 270, but there still are a lot of ballots to be counted.

    However, even if Trump is thrown out of office, the GOP will remain his party.

    https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/11/frank-rich-the-gop-will-learn-nothing-from-a-trump-defeat.html

    Trump’s enablers and sycophants will continue to pander to his base. What happened to the Republican party? That I will never understand. It is not my grandfather’s or my father’s party anymore. It is not the party I was raised to vote for. I seriously doubt my grandfather or father would have voted for Trump, as I did not twice.

    My mother loved Trump, for reasons I cannot comprehend. My brother is a full blown Trumpist. He has drunk the Kool Aide. I couldn’t discuss politics with her and can’t with him. Neither would listen to reason.

    Trump is a corrupt liberal Democratic fraud posing as a Republican. And the GOP bought his act, went all in. That is unbelievable to me. It’s also in excusable. That’s why I voted against every Republican, for the first time in my life. I voted Democratic where I had to and Libertarian where I could.

    Patterico asked a few days ago, what will the post-Trump GOP look like? Pretty much the same, as long as Trumpublicans pander to his base.

    Gawain's Ghost (b25cd1)

  305. Biden is now 7 electoral votes short of 270

    If you’re including Arizona, it’s six. But while I’d rather be in Biden’s position in Arizona than Trump’s, and even though a couple of outlets have already called it for Biden, IMO it’s prudent to consider Arizona not decided yet. In which case Biden is 17 EVs short of 270.

    lurker (d8c5bc)

  306. Trump narrows gap in AZ; hanging on in GA/PA.

    EC#s differ on all the networks.

    Polling is dead America.

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  307. Nevada close; Clark County mail-ins now critical in count.

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  308. John mccain stopped moscow mitch cold on obama care. AOC and the progressives along with house republicans will vote out pelosi and the other old men. Schumer is going to get primaried by AOC.

    asset (69b656)

  309. @303. So much charisma that it drove a considerable number of people away from the party

    Only the deadwood; better check your math– so far, more people voted for him in 2020 than in 2016.

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  310. @310. Long overdue to clear out the scrub brush and deadwood.

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  311. But the hotheads in the Congress, on FoxNews, and in TrumpWorld all have a vested interest in seeing things get even worse

    Yeah, maybe they’ll spend two years chasing a collusion conspiracy theory, then some impeachment stuff, then cheer on a pandemic “gift” — but that would be beyond the pale even for Trump cultists.

    beer ‘n pretzels (042d67) — 11/4/2020 @ 10:52 pm

    Whatabout the stuff that makes me sad?

    Time123 (b4d075)

  312. Twitter is an absolute shit-show tonight, folks, just in case any of you were tempted to venture over there and take a peek. You have righties talking about massive voter fraud and lefties talking about arresting Mitch McConnell and forcing Republicans into a Truth and Reconciliation committee. It’s not for the faint-hearted.

    JVW (ee64e4) — 11/4/2020 @ 7:53 pm

    Your feed looks a lot different than mine.

    But it’s still a crap show.

    Time123 (b4d075)

  313. About those ballots that were rejected because voters used Sharpies: FakeNews.

    Paul Montagu (77c694)

  314. Axios has an interesting story on Moscow Mitch and Biden appointees.

    TLDR: Mitch will refuse to confirm overly liberal candidates.

    Time123 (b4d075)

  315. mr. not-the-president-no-more donald trump, who has always relied on the kindness of strangers, will fade from the scene quicker than a chalk line on the sidewalk

    because he won’t have a job

    he won’t be bona fide

    and mitch mcconnell will be wearing his dapper dan

    nk (1d9030)

  316. Funny mashup of Trump supporters shouting “Stop the Vote” and Count the vote” depending on the circumstances. Really doesn’t make it look like they’re acting on any principle beyond “whatever helps us win is right”

    Time123 (f5cf77)

  317. #312

    An activist isolationist socially conservative party has no appeal to me. I actually find it repellent.

    Appalled (1a17de)

  318. I did a quick analysis of the polling miss.

    Using what should be up to date vote totals, and the final fivethirtyeight state poll averages, I did a linear fit to Biden’s predicted (2-party) margin vs. his actual (2-party) margin. The result is a surprisingly good fit, over the entire range from Wyoming to DC:

    Predicted = 0.89 * Actual + 0.06

    Equivalently, we can use the prediction error, defined as Predicted – Actual:

    Error = 0.06 – 0.11 * Actual

    It means that for states that wound up close to tied, the polls predicted a +6% Biden margin

    The error is worse, on average, for red states and better for blue states.

    For states Biden won by 9, the prediction was a point closer, and for states lost by 9, the prediction was a point further off.

    A 6% polling error also looks pretty consistent with the national polls, which had Biden +9 when it now looks to be more like +4.

    Dave (1bb933)

  319. Mr Polloi asked:

    So my question to you and other conservatives/Republicans who voted for Biden to get rid of Trump…now what?

    Well, that’s the point I’ve tried to make: in voting for Joe Biden just to get rid of the Big Orange Authoritarian Fascist, they voted for the Democrats’ policies as well.

    Immigration? The good-hearted, compassionate Democrats will reopen the floodgates of illegal immigration, ‘caue they are so caring, don’t you know? Those conservative Never Trumpers will bewail that, but it is part of the bed they helped to make.

    Taxes? The Democrats have promised to increase taxes on the top producers, of course, and with inflated salaries, as well as a high cost of living, many of those Never Trump conservatives will get to see that on their tax bills, directly. Of course, the Democrats want to increase taxes on those wicked old corporations, which will pass along those increased taxes in the price of the goods and services they offer. The Never Trump conservatives who might not meet the income thresholds of the increases in income taxes will wind up paying those higher prices, but, hey, they got rid of Donald Trump, so it’ll all be worth it to them, right?

    Boys who claim to be girls winning all of the track meets and soccer games? That’s something the left are for as well, and the conservative Never Trumpers, well maybe they’ll keep their keyboards silent about that. Speech laws penalizing businesses if their workers ‘misgender’ a customer? The conservative Never Trumpers might say something about those, but some of us will remind them that that is for what they voted.

    Had Donald Trump won — and I guess that there’s still a slim chance he does — he’d still have been gone, gone, gone in four more years. The damages of the Democrats’ policies will last much longer than that.

    The Dana in Kentucky (2e5280)

  320. FNC and Talk Radio will valiantly try keep Trumpism alive (his style is catnip to keep them tuned in)….and apparently > 69M continue to want the Trump show to entertain them…because thinking about debt, Russia, and an aging population is just….too….exhausting. And so the GOP will continue to fetishize on Trump….because it’s easy….rather than significant issues of governance.

    AJ_Liberty (a4ff25)

  321. Mr Polloi asked:

    So my question to you and other conservatives/Republicans who voted for Biden to get rid of Trump…now what?

    Well, that’s the point I’ve tried to make: in voting for Joe Biden just to get rid of the Big Orange Authoritarian Fascist, they voted for the Democrats’ policies as well.

    Immigration? The good-hearted, compassionate Democrats will reopen the floodgates of illegal immigration, ‘caue they are so caring, don’t you know? Those conservative Never Trumpers will bewail that, but it is part of the bed they helped to make.

    The rate over time of illegal immigration doesn’t show a change in the trend with Trump’s election.

    Taxes? The Democrats have promised to increase taxes on the top producers, of course, and with inflated salaries, as well as a high cost of living, many of those Never Trump conservatives will get to see that on their tax bills, directly. Of course, the Democrats want to increase taxes on those wicked old corporations, which will pass along those increased taxes in the price of the goods and services they offer. The Never Trump conservatives who might not meet the income thresholds of the increases in income taxes will wind up paying those higher prices, but, hey, they got rid of Donald Trump, so it’ll all be worth it to them, right?

    I’m young enough that I don’t see a long term difference between a tax cut that raises the deficit and a tax increase.

    Boys who claim to be girls winning all of the track meets and soccer games? That’s something the left are for as well, and the conservative Never Trumpers, well maybe they’ll keep their keyboards silent about that.

    Honestly i don’t care about this issue.

    Speech laws penalizing businesses if their workers ‘misgender’ a customer? The conservative Never Trumpers might say something about those, but some of us will remind them that that is for what they voted.

    That would violate the 1st amendment. It’s not going to happen. You can calm down.

    Time123 (f5cf77)

  322. norcal wrote:

    So, by voting for Jo Jorgensen I placed myself in company with (JVW) and Kevin, two people I highly respect. This is a satisfactory state of affairs.

    Actually, you placed yourself in my company as well.

    What? The Dana who used to be able to use multiple adjectives didn’t vote for Donald Trump?

    My wife hates Mr Trump, and has said that the orange paint is simply to cover the 666 on his forehead. Being in the Bluegrass State, where President Trump was a sure winner, and liking the idea of libertarianism getting stronger, I voted for Miss Jorgensen, knowing that it would make my wife happier — I sent her a cell phone photo of my ballot — knowing it made no difference.

    If we ever go to a popular vote for President, then there’s no more room for third parties; I’d have had to have voted for Mr Trump.

    But everyone here will be happy to know that I voted straight Republican down the rest of the ballot, because the popular vote does count in every other race. I was one of the 1,222,746 Kentuckians who gave Mitch McConnell his largest margin ever over a serious candidate, despite the Democrats wasting $88 million on Amy McGrath Henderson.

    The Dana in Kentucky (2e5280)

  323. Mr 123 wrote:

    Speech laws penalizing businesses if their workers ‘misgender’ a customer? The conservative Never Trumpers might say something about those, but some of us will remind them that that is for what they voted.

    That would violate the 1st amendment. It’s not going to happen. You can calm down.

    You do realize that such laws already exist in New York City, don’t you?

    Section IV: The Commission can impose civil penalties up to $125,000 for violations, and up to $250,000 for violations that are the result of willful, wanton, or malicious conduct.

    The Dana in Kentucky (2e5280)

  324. @325, You’re right. I didn’t consider it might be part of harassment. I suppose in that context speech can be limited.

    Time123 (b4d075)

  325. ETA, need to think about that some more.

    Time123 (b4d075)

  326. Dave, Nice analysis work. Thank you for sharing the chart.

    Time123 (b4d075)

  327. Dana, President Trump the great fiscal conservative, signed legislation this year to spend $3 trillion more than the government took in. He’s a bigger spender than Obama.

    In past years, during “the greatest economy in the history of any universe” he signed legislation to spend $1 trillion more than the government took in. Every year.

    Can you explain how spending a trillion dollars (or more) the government doesn’t have, every year, is somehow a disincentive to further spending? To control spending, wouldn’t it be better to make people actually pay for it, so it’s clear that there’s no such thing as a free lunch?

    Dave (1bb933)

  328. mr. soon-to-be-ex-president donald trump, of whom it has been said that they gave him a number and took away his name, is from new york

    if the south had remained with the democratic party instead of joining the country club carpetbaggers, it might have saved it from the bi-coastals, the hippies, and the thugs

    but, no, they just had to go california dreaming

    nk (1d9030)

  329. https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/11/04/arizona-ballots-counted-if-marked-sharpies-felt-tip-pens/6162463002

    The Maricopa County Elections Department says voters can use black or blue ink or Sharpies to fill out ballots in person. Their new tabulation machines this election, which were tested many times, will count ballots with these types of pens.

    Additionally, concerns over a Sharpie bleeding through a ballot in Maricopa County should be alleviated by the ballot itself being offset, meaning it would not spoil a vote on the other side of the ballot, the county said in a video on Twitter explaining the use of Sharpies.

    The county preferred Sharpies at vote centers because they dry quickly. Ballpoint ink can smudge onto optical readers or other ballots, creating issues, the county said…

    …At a polling place in Queen Creek on Tuesday, a plainclothes Maricopa County Sheriff’s deputy was sent to investigate and found that a woman was handing voters ballpoint pens with a flyer urging them to not use Sharpies. The woman was told to stop and agreed to leave. The spokeswoman said new optical reading equipment was brought to the site to ensure ballots were read correctly.

    …The reassurance comes after some voters say are concerned about how the ink from the Sharpies they were given at vote centers bled through on their ballot, and others who say their ballots were rejected at polling places.

    Some Republican voters calling The Arizona Republic say they are worried that their votes wouldn’t count.

    Ric Serrano, for example, said he voted in Gilbert and had his ballot rejected multiple times by multiple machines. His ballot was eventually accepted by a machine. Poll workers started to give out black and blue pens, worried that it might be the pens causing the issues, he said.

    Gilbert is a heavily Republican area. Serrano is frustrated and worries about how any issues with ballots there might affect results.

    So the issue was that sharpies were new; the Board of Elections preferred Sharpies because they dry faster, and not only that, but wet ink could smudge the mylar film where the ballot is placed when read and then could smudge later ballots; but people worried that Sharpie ink might bleed through from one side of the ballot to the other and then the ballot might be rejected for causing an overvote. The overvote would most likely be on the other side of the place marked by the Sharpie.

    That problem can be corrected in in-person voting by the person voting asking for a replacement ballot. Or the voter can guess, or not guess, where the problem is and choose to accept the overvote.

    With mail in votes the procedure is like this:

    If they cannot get the machine to read the ballot, an election worker will take a fresh. new, blank ballot, and copy the ballot and run *that* through the machine n place of the ballot the voter filled out!

    It was the vendor who suggested Sharpies.

    In previous election, voters used an arrow; this time they filled out an oval.

    Sammy Finkelman (125d6f)

  330. mr donald may not grace the bunkers beneath the white house, or be able to brutalize innocent women and children who get in the way of his photo opportunities with military police and tear gas, for much longer

    but in our hearts he will always be the last president of the confederacy

    at least until mr tom ‘king’ cotton takes over the plantation

    Dave (1bb933)

  331. The Daily Wire
    @realDailyWire

    Finally, After Election, Oregon Dem Gov Asks For National Guard To Stop Portland Rioters
    http://dlvr.it/Rl3bN3

    __

    Just a co-inky-dink.
    _

    harkin (7fb4c9)

  332. There were other Souths besides Scarlet O’Hara’s, Mr. Dave.

    nk (1d9030)

  333. I was surprised that Larry Sabato ranked Georgia more toward Biden than Florida, but that seems to be correct.

    Sammy Finkelman (125d6f)

  334. I’ve been here long enough to know that Patterico and Radly Balko are not besties. In fact, I think they have broad political disagreements and a very limited amount of personal admiration.

    So it’s noteworthy when they’re pretty close on the question of if Trump should be prosecuted.

    https://twitter.com/radleybalko/status/1324372225923960833

    We need to know the extent of the damage done. Both to fix it, and to attempt to prevent it from happening again. And I’m far more worried about setting the precedent that presidents are untouchable so long as their own party controls the Senate.

    Time123 (b4d075)

  335. 317.mr. not-the-president-no-more donald trump…

    Huh? Who wins the Super Bowl next year and where is your DeLorean parked? 😉

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  336. 320. Dave (1bb933) — 11/5/2020 @ 5:28 am

    For states Biden won by 9, the prediction was a point closer, and for states lost by 9, the prediction was a point further off.

    I think that means pollsters can use the refusal rate, or the difficulty rate, to weight polls, after assigning a 6% error rate in favor of the Democrat.

    They probably should use a number of measures. And need to know what still holds through the election they are polling.

    The situation is, now everything depends on the weighting. Raw sampling is no good. Less than 10%, and dropping toward 5%, of people contacted by pollsters now answer surveys.

    Sammy Finkelman (125d6f)

  337. Perdue is right on the cusp of losing his required majority margin of victory. With tens of thousands of “votes” still outstanding, all in areas hostile to his candidacy, a second runoff is all but guaranteed now.

    GOP must win both to retain the Senate. Runoffs will be held Jan. 5th. Counting will end on ??????

    *If Tillis somehow loses in North Carolina, the Senate flips to the Dems, regardless Georgia outcomes.

    Ed from SFV (f64387)

  338. 337. presidents are virtually untouchable so long as their own party controls the House A two thirds majority is needed in the Senate to remove, which means it requires a real consensus. A little bit different depending on the outcome of the previous election, but very difficult in any case.

    Sammy Finkelman (125d6f)

  339. #340

    Runoffs tend to favor the Republican in Georgia. (Just like polls always favor the Democrats here). This said, it gives Mitch a strong incentive to make sure Trump plays nice during the transition. Is that really a bad thing?

    Appalled (1a17de)

  340. Next year’s Super Bowl is 900 years before my birth, Mr. DCSCA. Not something I’d know offhand. But I’ll look it up for you when I next check if Trump’s defeat erased the bifurcation in the time stream or whether all the delegates at the 2120 Republican Convention will still be their own grandpas.

    And I could not possibly comment in any way on my means of travel.

    nk (1d9030)

  341. Are they seriously claiming that Wisconsin had 900k same day registered voters to explain how their registration count jumped so ludicrously and that it’s not really over 90% registered voters voting as well as several counties around Milwaukee over 100%? Furthermore, they’re claiming that in Wisconsin, contrary to the rest of the nation, those votes weren’t overwhelmingly for the President?

    https://twitter.com/KimStrassel/status/1324093625890791424?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

    NJRob (eb56c3)

  342. 306. Gawain’s Ghost (b25cd1) — 11/4/2020 @ 10:57 pm

    Biden is now 7 electoral votes short of 270

    307. lurker (d8c5bc) — 11/4/2020 @ 11:22 pm

    If you’re including Arizona, it’s six.

    I think he wasn’t including the 2nd district of Nebraska (basically Omaha.)

    If Trump carried Pennsylvania but not Nevada, Biden has exactly 270 Electoral votes in this calculation, but one faithless Biden elector can throw the election for president into the House of Representatives.

    Sammy Finkelman (125d6f)

  343. any principle beyond “whatever helps us win is right”

    ‘Winning isn’t everything; it’s the only thing.’ = Joe Biden

    Also:

    “I was raised in Scranton and left in the fourth grade.” – Joe Biden

    “Ask not, what your country can do for you because a roling stone gather no moss.” – Joe Biden

    And:

    ‘In God We Trust.’ – Joe Biden

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  344. If the counting lasts and lasts…I wonder if we see profligate blue state governors try to make a deal on the downlow…ballots for bailout?

    urbanleftbehind (be8d73)

  345. @347. Count on it. 😉

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  346. Mr 123 wrote:

    You’re right. I didn’t consider it might be part of harassment. I suppose in that context speech can be limited.

    In my poor site’s stylebook, I have noted:

    Those who claim to be transgender will be referred to with the honorific and pronouns appropriate to the sex of their birth; the site owner does not agree with the cockamamie notion that anyone can simply ‘identify’ with a sex which is not his own, nor that any medical ‘treatment’ or surgery can change a person’s natural sex; all that it can do is physically mutilate a person.

    Thus I refer to Bradley Manning, not “Chelsea,” to Bruce Jenner, not “Caitlyn,” and to the newly elected state Senator in Delaware as Timothy McBride, not “Sarah.” So, I would have to ask: since my website is available in New York City, and comments are allowed — though first time commenters go into moderation; once I release them, they can comment again freely without going into the moderation queue — does this put me in violation of New York City ordinances?

    The Dana in Kentucky (2e5280)

  347. “Folks! Here’s the deal: pull tab to open!” – Joe Biden

    Inspiring.

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  348. That’s basically a trade offer to Trump and less fiscally inclined legislative sycophants.

    urbanleftbehind (be8d73)

  349. @349, I quickly read the link but unless I’m mistaken a plaintif would have to show that your style guide amounted to harassment or denied them access to public facilities.

    Time123 (b4d075)

  350. Just a co-inky-dink.
    _

    harkin (7fb4c9) — 11/5/2020 @ 7:19 am

    Now that Democrats have won the White House, and start to gauge the extent to which the radical Left cost them votes at all levels, you might actually see more Democrats suddenly realize those Antifa/BLM rioters are a problem and not national heroes.

    Hoi Polloi (15cfac)

  351. 340. Ed from SFV (f64387) — 11/5/2020 @ 7:43 am

    *If Tillis somehow loses in North Carolina, the Senate flips to the Dems, regardless Georgia outcomes.

    If John James doesn;t score an upset but loses in Michigan, and Senators Martha McSally (R-Ariz) and Cory Gardner (R-COLO) and Diug James (D-Ala) lose their re-election bids, it is a gain of one for the Democrats.

    One more, and the Republicans still have 51 Senators, assuming they win both Senate races in Georgia. But Mitch McConnell was careful not to claim victory.

    The reason the Senate and the House are called quicker, is because the uncertainty is only for a few races, and the margin is different.

    Republican candidates for Congress n most places are running ahead of Donald Trump, but not in Arizona

    As of 11 am Eastern time:

    Mark Kelly Democratic Party 52.1%
    1,504,460

    Martha McSally Republican Party 47.9%
    1,382,565
    —————————

    Vote %
    Vote count

    Joe Biden Democratic Party 50.5%
    1,469,341

    Donald Trump Republican Party 48.1%
    1,400,951

    Jo Jorgensen Libertarian Party 1.4%
    39,761

    Sammy Finkelman (125d6f)

  352. Are they seriously claiming that Wisconsin had 900k same day registered voters to explain how their registration count jumped so ludicrously and that it’s not really over 90% registered voters voting as well as several counties around Milwaukee over 100%? Furthermore, they’re claiming that in Wisconsin, contrary to the rest of the nation, those votes weren’t overwhelmingly for the President?

    https://twitter.com/KimStrassel/status/1324093625890791424?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

    NJRob (eb56c3) — 11/5/2020 @ 7:53 am

    This is an interesting story and I’m looking forward to learning more.

    Time123 (b4d075)

  353. If you thought that Putin’s “Operation F*** With America” was going to end on Election Day ….

    nk (1d9030)

  354. Dave asked me — at least I think it was me –:

    Dana, President Trump the great fiscal conservative, signed legislation this year to spend $3 trillion more than the government took in. He’s a bigger spender than Obama.

    In past years, during “the greatest economy in the history of any universe” he signed legislation to spend $1 trillion more than the government took in. Every year.

    Can you explain how spending a trillion dollars (or more) the government doesn’t have, every year, is somehow a disincentive to further spending? To control spending, wouldn’t it be better to make people actually pay for it, so it’s clear that there’s no such thing as a free lunch?

    President Trump has been good on many things, but on spending, he most certainly has not been. He signed on to profligate spending even before COVID-19 hit. Alas! Every Republican President since Ronald Reagan has signed on to very significant deficit spending. I’ve said it before: we’ve had Administrations which tax like Republicans and spend like Democrats, and Administrations which tax like Democrats and spend like Democrats. I’d like to see an Administration that would spend like Libertarians, and that’s why I’d like to see libertarianism grow much stronger, but do so within the Republican Party, because the “official” Libertarian Party is such a f(ornicating) joke that it can’t get out of its own way. The Libertarian Party lied to people who might have been sympathetic to its cause by claiming that Representative Justin Amash (L-MI) to be an “elected Libertarian” in a “partisan office”, even though anybody who knows enough about politics to even look for the party’s website knows that Mr Amash won his office running as a Republican, and I’m enough of an [insert slang term for the rectum here] to point that out.

    One reason Donald Trump won the 2016 nomination is that a lot of Republican voters — think the TEA Party here — wanted an [insert slang term for the rectum here] to be President, wanted someone who would say, “No, you can’t have that,” and stick to his guns and reduce spending. Unfortunately, even though he is an [insert slang term for the rectum here], President Trump didn’t do that. The left, on the other hand, would be even worse.

    COVID-19 really may have doomed us. So many people now do not give a f(ornicate) about spending, and deficits mean nothing. The Fed has used an ‘interesting’ form of creating money; it spends money that doesn’t exist, but because nobody bounces the checks — electronic transfers, really — the money is just magically created. As long as the dollar remains the world’s reserve currency, it might continue to work; if that ever changes, everything will come crashing down.

    I’ve argued the extreme case for this. Since nobody ever bounces a government check, why not reduce taxes to zero? As long as the government checks, or EFTs, are accepted as real money by the recipients, what difference does it make if the government has zero revenue coming in to support those checks? My argument wasn’t really meant as a policy prescription, but a reductio ad absurdum, to demonstrate the logical conclusion of our policies.

    The Dana in Kentucky (2e5280)

  355. So, I would have to ask: since my website is available in New York City, and comments are allowed — though first time commenters go into moderation; once I release them, they can comment again freely without going into the moderation queue — does this put me in violation of New York City ordinances?

    Where is your server?

    Hoi Polloi (15cfac)

  356. @342 Appalled – In a typical year, I’d love the GOP’s chances. But, this is going to be an unprecedented deal with never-before-seen hype.

    The other thing is that Loeffler is a weak candidate. She is no politician. The only reason she beat Collins to get to this runoff was an overwhelming media spend advantage, which highlighted her voting in lockstep with DJT. She is from the moderate wing of the party. Kemp made the critical error, imo, of naming her over Collins in the first place. Anyway, she will not have the a money advantage now.

    Reverend Warnock is a dynamic black minister out of Atlanta. He does not have the baggage of an Abrams. He comes across as a reasonable and substantial guy.

    If the new mail-in initiative is continued, I don’t see enough of the customary indifference in the Atlanta metro to save Loeffler. A lame duck DJT will not have the appeal to his base that he had before he attained this status.

    This is gonna be an ugly time in the Peach State.

    Ed from SFV (f64387)

  357. https://www.factcheck.org/2020/11/viral-posts-misreport-data-on-registered-voters-in-wisconsin

    While the ballots were still being counted on Nov. 4, however, a flurry of viral posts circulated on Facebook and Twitter, making the false claim that the state had fewer registered voters than the number of votes cast for president.

    An example of the widely shared post claims, “Wisconsin has more votes than people who are registered to vote.” It then says there are 3,129,000 registered voters in the state, and 3,239,920 votes were cast. “This is direct evidence of voter fraud,” the post alleges.

    But both numbers in the post are wrong and, more importantly, it underreports the actual number of registered voters in the state.

    That data is easy to get from the Wisconsin Elections Commission, which reported a total of 3,684,726 registered voters as of Nov. 1. Wisconsin has Election Day registration, which means that the voter registration numbers are likely even higher than the total reported on the state website on Nov. 1.

    As for votes cast for president in 2020, the New York Times was reporting on Nov. 4 a total of 3,297,137 votes in Wisconsin.

    A voter turnout of 73% translates into a total of 4,438,465 registered voters, or 753,739 newly registered voters added this week Sunday through Tuesday.

    Or about 1/6 of all registered voters, as of the close of polls on November 3, registered only this week.

    Q. How does this compare with other years, or with other states?

    Sammy Finkelman (125d6f)

  358. This is an interesting story and I’m looking forward to learning more.

    There were 3.6M registered voters in Wisconsin as of Nov. 1st. There were 3.2M votes cast.

    Wisconsin is one of several states that allow for same day registration. So it’s probably somewhat above 3.6M.

    Lots of people “speculating” that “something is happening”…it’s called people exercising their constitutional rights to vote, and other people exercising their constitutional rights to free speech, saying stupid things.

    Colonel Klink (Ret) (1367c0)

  359. 357. The Dana in Kentucky (2e5280) — 11/5/2020 @ 8:21 am

    As long as the dollar remains the world’s reserve currency, it might continue to work; if that ever changes, everything will come crashing down.

    We’ve still got a long run to go, but I can’t speak for 200 years from now, but it will help to have a bigger percentage of the world’s population using the dollar just so long as Ecuador can’t create them.

    Till it crashes, Milton Friedman was wrong and there is such a thing as a free lunch.

    When and if it does crash, it won’t make much of a difference what you paid for now.

    There is only the argument that if you push things too far, you might cause it to crash sooner.

    Right now there is no alternative to the Almighty Dollar.

    I’ve argued the extreme case for this. Since nobody ever bounces a government check, why not reduce taxes to zero?

    That’s a good question. It certainly would work for a year or two. Economists tend to worry about the debt to GDP ratio, not the yearly deficit. “Are we reaching some limit?” is the question.

    It’s generally agreed that the situation stays the same so long as the deficit is not more than the growth in nominal GDP. You could run a 3% to 5% deficit indefinitely.

    As long as the government checks, or EFTs, are accepted as real money by the recipients, what difference does it make if the government has zero revenue coming in to support those checks?

    So long as, like some cartoon characters, you don’t look down for support, you won’t fall.

    So far so good.

    Sammy Finkelman (125d6f)

  360. Regarding Wisconsin registered voters, there were 3,684,726 as of November 1st. The state allows same-day registration, so the actual number of registered voters on election day is thousands higher. Even with the higher denominator, the turnout is record-setting.

    Paul Montagu (77c694)

  361. Damn, I need to read all the comments before I chime in.

    Paul Montagu (77c694)

  362. The esteemed Mr Finkelman wrote:

    As long as the dollar remains the world’s reserve currency, it might continue to work; if that ever changes, everything will come crashing down.

    We’ve still got a long run to go, but I can’t speak for 200 years from now, but it will help to have a bigger percentage of the world’s population using the dollar just so long as Ecuador can’t create them.

    I shall presume that you used Ecuador as the example because it is one of the countries which uses the US dollar as its official currency.

    But, as the world has moved to electronic fund transfers, why couldn’t Ecuador create dollars? If Ecuador writes a check, or EFT, for some amount of money denominated in US dollars, and the recipient accepts the check or EFT as genuine, if nobody has bounced the check, hasn’t money in the form of US dollars been created?

    As long as the government checks, or EFTs, are accepted as real money by the recipients, what difference does it make if the government has zero revenue coming in to support those checks?

    So long as, like some cartoon characters, you don’t look down for support, you won’t fall.

    So far so good.

    The truth is that nobody wants to look down.

    Economics 101 — OK, OK, it was numbered Econ 161 back when I was in college — seemed odd to me when the professor went over how commercial banks create money; it just didn’t make any sense at all, until I realized that money is just a perception. Once you can get past that, it all makes perfect sense. The only limiting factor — ignoring reserve requirements for now — was the physical supply of acceptable currency.

    Once we started to accept electrons as currency, money became as plentiful as electrons.

    The Dana in Kentucky (2e5280)

  363. Donald Trump hasn’t been seen in public, but he’s tweeting and he said to stop the count. But if everything were to stop where it is right now, Joe Biden would win EXACTLY 270 Electoral vote, to Donald Trump’s 268.

    Most Electoral vote counts by news agencies give Donald Trump 213 Electoral votes and Joe Biden 253, and I think hasn’t changed in maybe a day. Only Fox News projects Arizona.

    To Trump’s called 213 w can safely add Alaska [3] and the 2nd district of Maine [1] which gives you 217. To which you can add North Carolina [13} and Georgia [16] for a total of 248. Trump is leading in Pennsylvania by a big margin and, as for the late arriving allots he wants to excludee, there are only a few hundred of them. Trump got what his lawyers were asking in court for in Pennsylvania – closer observation of the vote count.

    Trump is generally favored in Pennsylvania [20] which would give him 268, and Biden in Arizona [11{ which would give him 264.

    It’s all up to Nevada [6] although Trump is asking for a recount in Wisconsin [10], and still claiming Michigan [16]

    https://www.8newsnow.com/news/local-news/nevada-election-results-update-wont-come-until-thursday

    Thorley says the next update will be tomorrow morning at 9 a.m. He also told us starting at 9, election results will load one county at a time on the website.

    Here: https://silverstateelection.nv.gov

    Right now it’s Biden 598,003 and Trump 586,545 or 49.47% to 48.52%

    No more results expected from Clark (Las Veas) and Washoe (Reno) counties.

    Sammy Finkelman (125d6f)

  364. 23. aphrael (4c4719) — 11/4/2020 @ 12:08 pm

    I also wonder what the odds are that either (a) a faithless elector causes it to go to the House

    If it’s 27-268 (chances about75% at this point) one faithless Biden elector is enough, and the House ifit votes along party lines might even give us Trump, but it probably won’t.

    or (b) a faithless elector causes us to get Biden-Pence.

    For that, one faithless elector would have to leave out Kamala Harris – the Senate would choose Pence if the House remained deadlocked.

    Sammy Finkelman (125d6f)

  365. The counting continues, as it should. The margins in states not called is paper thin. Biden now leads in Arizona and Nevada, as is gaining in Georgia and Pennsylvania. But there are tens of thousands of ballots left to adjudicate.

    The mail-in votes tend to be heavily Democratic. So it looks like Biden will win the presidency. If you go by the popular vote, he’s already received more votes than any candidate in history. That’s a repudiation, but not a mandate.

    The Republicans did gain some seats in the House, but not enough to win a majority. Currently, the Senate is tied at 48-48. It could end up being 50-50, or 51-49, or 52-48. The latter would make for a very slim majority for Republicans. If the Senate ends up tied, with Harris as vice-president, that would make for a slimmer majority for Democrats.

    Still waiting for reporting on governorships and state legislatures, but all everyone is talking about is the presidential race. However, I don’t think they will change much. In other words, there was no blue wave.

    It appears the electorate voted for a transitional government. Biden will be a weak one-term president, unable to pass much of anything. The feared far left agenda is going nowhere. The electorate did not validate it.

    What the American people want is sensible control of the pandemic. That is Biden’s only responsibility. The economy cannot recover until we gain control of Covid-19. I mean, infections, hospitalizations and deaths keep going up and up. We lead the world in failure to contain the outbreak. That’s on Trump and his idiotic approach to the coronavirus.

    The American people want a return to normalcy, but that is not possible without containing the spread of Covid-19. People are dying all across the country; businesses are closing. And that is intolerable and unacceptable.

    Trump is incapable of managing the situation, because he lives in denial. Anything that makes him look bad is not good. He is a complete failure as a president and a total fraud. He puts himself before the country, when it should be the exact opposite. He’s vain, narcissistic and incompetent, not to mention corrupt. That’s why he’s being voted out of office.

    Biden will have a few years to right the ship of state. There will be no tax increases, no Green New Deal, no end to fracking and energy production. None of that is going to happen. There is no mandate for it.

    The Biden administration will be transitional, while the American people figure out what kind of governance they will accept. The midterms in 2022 will be brutal. It’s all about 2024 now.

    Gawain's Ghost (b25cd1)

  366. So a national polity much like the present day NC, WI, KY and LA state governments. Dem governors bollixed by Republican legislators and lower office holders.

    urbanleftbehind (be8d73)

  367. Mr Behind wrote:

    So a national polity much like the present day NC, WI, KY and LA state governments. Dem governors bollixed by Republican legislators and lower office holders.

    Sadly, that’s not the case in the Bluegrass State. The legislature is not in session, and will not be until next January. Reichsstatthalter Andy Beshear (NSDAP-KY) has been governing via executive order since COVID-19 reared its ugly head, and no one has been able to stop him. Several court cases trying to invalidate his executive orders were filed, but the state Supreme Court rolled them all into one — Herr Beshear had lost all of the lower court cases — and put a stay on all of the lower court orders until the state Supreme Court decided the cases.

    That was last July. The Court finally heard oral arguments on September 17th, but has still not issued its ruling. So, even if they decide that yes, the Governor had overstepped his authority, his orders will still have legally been in force from July through whenever they issue their rulings.

    Businesses were closed, and some, even after they were so graciously allowed to reopen, have failed. The Governor ordered churches to close, and when a few defied his orders and opened on Easter Sunday, the Governor sent the State Police to record license plate numbers in church parking lots, and send the owners quarantine orders. The Governor has imposed a mandatory mask order, and banned gatherings of more than ten people, even on private property. Technically, we could be in violation if the whole family gathers for Thanksgiving dinner.

    Of late, the Governor has been making ‘recommendations’ rather than orders, though he renews the mask order every thirty days.

    The state constitution limits the General Assembly to one session a year, starting in January, lasting sixty days in even numbered years and thirty days in odd numbered years. The Governor can call the legislature into special session if he wishes — and he specifically said he would not do so over his COVID-19 orders, because the legislature might not go along with him — but the legislature has no authority to call itself back into session.

    I previously contacted the Republican candidate, who did win, for the 91st House District to sponsor or support a measure to amend Section 39A of the Kentucky Revised Statutes to limit the Governor’s ’emergency’ powers to 14 days, non-renewable, without calling the legislature into special session, and plan to do so again. The GOP holds the majority in both houses of the General Assembly. Come 2023, I will be working and donating money to do everything I can to defeat Mr Beshear.

    The Dana in Kentucky (2e5280)

  368. Reichsstatthalter Andy Beshear (NSDAP-KY)

    You really shouldn’t call him a Nazi, even a “white Nazi” – I think the term for someone who said he didn’t go along with Hitler’s racial policies.

    Couldn’t you find something from Anglo-American history?

    Maybe something out of here?

    https://scholarworks.umass.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi

    https://simple.wikipedia.org/wiki/Slave_Power

    Sammy Finkelman (125d6f)


Powered by WordPress.

Page loaded in: 0.9103 secs.