Patterico's Pontifications

10/28/2020

Trump’s Covid Testing Czar Offers Different Opinion Than The Boss

Filed under: General — Dana @ 3:01 pm



[guest post by Dana]

As we know, President Trump has tried to wish away the virus, has intentionally downplayed the virus, and has compared the virus to the common flu. Now, the President is suggesting that the media is discussing COVID-19 in an effort to hurt him in the election and that it should be considered an election law violation:

Last week Trump told rally attendees that the media’s coverage of Covid-19 was just a ploy to keep Americans from voting:

“They’re getting tired of the pandemic, aren’t they,” Trump told a crowd of hundreds of unmasked supporters in Prescott. “You turn on CNN, that’s all they cover. Covid, Covid, pandemic, Covid, Covid, Covid… You know why? They’re trying to talk everybody out of voting. People aren’t buying it, CNN. You dumb bastards.”

Trump has also told Americans as recently as last week, that we are “rounding the corner” with regard to the pandemic:

“It will go away,” Trump said. “And as I say, we are rounding the turn. We are rounding the corner. It’s going away.”

But in the meantime we are beginning to see a concerning uptick in coronavirus cases:

Deaths per day from the coronavirus in the U.S. are on the rise again, just as health experts had feared, and cases are climbing in practically every state, despite assurances from President Donald Trump over the weekend that “we’re rounding the turn, we’re doing great.”

…average deaths per day across the country are up 10% over the past two weeks, from 721 to nearly 794 as of Sunday, according to data from Johns Hopkins University. Newly confirmed infections per day are rising in 47 states, and deaths are up in 34.

Michael Osterholm, a University of Minnesota expert on infectious diseases who warned over the summer of a fall surge, said what’s happening now is a confluence of three factors: “pandemic fatigue” among people who are weary of hunkering down and are venturing out more; “pandemic anger” among those are don’t believe the scourge is a real threat; and cold weather, which is forcing more Americans indoors, where the virus can spread more easily.

Responding to reports of a surge, Trump is claiming that it is the result of more testing. He blames the uh, misinformation on a Fake News Media Conspiracy:

However, today Trump’s own testing czar countered the President’s claim :

The Trump administration’s head of COVID-19 testing said that the record-breaking numbers of new infections in the U.S. are “real,” and not because of an increase in testing, counter to what President Donald Trump has claimed.

Testing czar Admiral Brett Giroir, also an assistant secretary of Health and Human Services who was appointed to his position by Trump, confirmed that U.S. COVID-19 cases are rising.

“Testing may be identifying some more cases, I think that’s clearly true, but what we’re seeing is a real increase in the numbers,” he told the Washington Post.

Giroir pointed out that not only are cases going up — the country saw 74,410 new infections on Tuesday and a record-breaking 85,085 on Friday — but hospitalizations for the virus are as well.

“Compared to the post-Memorial Day surge, even though testing is up, this is a real increase in cases,” he said. “We know that not only because the case numbers are up and we can calculate that, but we know that hospitalizations are going up.”

And here was Giroir being interviewed on NBC today:

“We do believe and the data show that cases are going up. It’s not just a function of testing,” Giroir said in an interview on NBC’s “Today” show. “Yes, we’re getting more cases identified, but the cases are actually going up. And we know that, too, because hospitalizations are going up.”

Six days until the election and it seems like Trump is still trying to spin it as the pandemic that never was.

–Dana

65 Responses to “Trump’s Covid Testing Czar Offers Different Opinion Than The Boss”

  1. Hello.

    Dana (6995e0)

  2. If Obama had started saying Fox News should shut up or the election laws should shut them up, that would have been the story of the year. Instead, the color of his suit was newsworthy.

    And Trump says something impeachable like that every day.

    Dustin (4237e0)

  3. Given the current state of “election law” and what’s been generally passing for “press coverage” I’m not sure there isn’t some sort of election law violation somewhere. Whether it’s specific to covid or not is another matter.

    frosty (f27e97)

  4. A Trump accusation is a confession. All the crooked election law tactics have been committed by Trump. Russia. Ukraine. Sabotaging the Post Office. Claiming the election is rigged. Telling his nose-pickers to vote twice. Telling them to show up at polling places to make trouble. And that’s just a few.

    nk (1d9030)

  5. I forgot he told his fanboys to vote twice. That is a forgettable story this year.

    Dustin (4237e0)

  6. Total Covid Tests per 1,000 people (Thru Oct 24)

    Singapore – 629
    Iceland – 519
    United States – 428
    UK – 410
    Belgium – 403
    Ireland – 320
    Norway – 290
    Italy – 247
    Germany – 253
    Switzerland – 211
    Estonia – 193
    Greece – 163
    Turkey – 160
    Poland – 110
    South Africa – 80
    India – 76
    South Korea – 50

    https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/full-list-cumulative-total-tests-per-thousand-bar-chart?time=latest&country=ECU~IND~IDN~ITA~KOR~TUR~USA~ISL~CHE~SGP~GBR~TWN~VNM~SEN~ZAF~NOR~EST~BEL~DEU~GRC~IRL~JPN~MEX~POL~Sweden%2C%20people%20tested~CHN
    _

    harkin (7fb4c9)

  7. Those are interesting numbers, Harkin, but hospitalizations are up. Any defense that the problem isn’t real, that the media shouldn’t be freely talking about how it’s getting worse, that is not the America I want to live in.

    Dustin (4237e0)

  8. Doom! Doom! Doom!

    Breaking news- 330 million Americans survived a pandemic. Dodgers win first World Series in 32 years. Water discovered in sunlit parts of Earth’s moon.

    “Malarkey!” “No miracle is coming.”- Joe Biden

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  9. If we are testing more and the number of tests is going up while the percentage testing positive is going down, that’s a sign that testing is finding more cases.

    If, on the other hand, we are testing more and the number of tests is going up while the percentage testing positive is going up, that’s a sign that the situation is running out of control.

    The percentage testing positive is going up in most of the country even as we test more.

    aphrael (4c4719)

  10. 228,000 dead.

    nk (1d9030)

  11. Jared Kushner bragged in April that Trump was taking the country ‘back from the doctors’
    …….
    In a taped interview on April 18, Kushner told legendary journalist Bob Woodward that Trump was “getting the country back from the doctors” in what he called a “negotiated settlement.” Kushner also proclaimed that the US was moving swiftly through the “panic phase” and “pain phase” of the pandemic and that the country was at the “beginning of the comeback phase.”

    “That doesn’t mean there’s not still a lot of pain and there won’t be pain for a while, but that basically was, we’ve now put out rules to get back to work,” Kushner said. “Trump’s now back in charge. It’s not the doctors.”

    There were three phases. There’s the panic phase, the pain phase and then the comeback phase. I do believe that last night symbolized kind of the beginning of the comeback phase. That doesn’t mean there’s not still a lot of pain and there won’t be pain for a while, but that basically was, we’ve now put out rules to get back to work. Trump’s now back in charge. It’s not the doctors. They’ve kind of – we have, like, a negotiated settlement.

    ……
    Kushner’s comments about the administration’s handling of the pandemic underscore the extent to which Trump and Kushner minimized the public health crisis even as it was exploding last spring.
    At that time, positive cases in the US regularly crested at around 30,000 per day. On April 15, three days before Kushner’s interview, deaths from Covid-19 reached their all-time peak at more than 2,600 per day. And hospitalizations for the virus were at their first peak as well, nearly reaching 60,000 for several days in April. During this period, New York still bore the brunt of the virus, and deadly surges had not yet swept across the South and Midwest.

    Kushner’s comments reflect what many health experts say is at the heart of the administration’s flawed approach to the pandemic — a premature push to reopen the country and sideline medical professionals that led to waves of new infections during the summer and record-setting cases this fall.
    …….

    The last thing was kind of doing the guidelines, which was interesting. And that in my mind was almost like – you know, it was almost like Trump getting the country back from the doctors. Right? In the sense that what he now did was, you know, he’s going to own the open-up.

    ……
    Kushner’s comments from six months ago look particularly damning as the US undergoes a fall surge of infections that is again breaking records. The US added 73,240 new cases Tuesday, and a record peak of more than 83,000 cases was reported on Friday.
    The rise in cases has been closely followed by an increase in coronavirus deaths.

    This month, 11 states reported their highest single day of new deaths since the pandemic began. And though researchers are racing toward a vaccine, it will be months before one is expected to be widely available, and health experts have cautioned that the public needs to take the virus seriously in the meantime. 

    “If we continue our current behavior, by the time we start to go down the other side of the curve, a half a million people will be dead,” CNN medical analyst Dr. Jonathan Reiner said Tuesday.
    …….
    Recordings at the link.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  12. Jared looks and talks like someone who should be passed over for assistant manager at Burger King. It really blows my mind a guy like that is in the position he is in. I know that’s how the world works to an extent, but Chelsea was not on the air for long. Hunter never got in the administration. Trump takes his nepotism to the point of medical experts freaking out in a pandemic because of his power tripping son in law.

    Dustin (4237e0)

  13. Jared, the husband of Ivanka.

    happyfeet, where are you when we need you?

    nk (1d9030)

  14. It’s worse in Europe than in the United States and Dr. Scott Gottlieb told CBS on Sunday that we are about three weeks behind Europe.

    The states of Washington and Oregon are going to partner with California to do their own approval process for any vaccine before getting involved in distributing one. New York’s Governor Andrew Cuomo has also said that.

    In Minnesota the Governor wants people 18-34 (who generally do not get very sick) to get tested because most of the positive tests are coming from that age group. They’re not thinking this through. A positive test does not mean contagious. That’s been asserted as a guess but the evidence is against that. It’s only contagious if someone is sick or going to feel sick within a day.

    Sammy Finkelman (a69e24)

  15. Yeah, Europe is reimposing lockdowns. I expect that we’ll have to do something similar in some jurisdictions sometime between the election and thanksgiving. Utah and El Paso arguably should already be doing it.

    aphrael (4c4719)

  16. Sammy — I think we should assume a tested-positive person is potentially infectious unless there is ample evidence that infectiousness requires symptoms. This is the *safer* option, making sure that we treat ambiguous or unknown cases as risks, and it also helps deal with the problem that a non-symptomatic person may *become* symptomatic while they are out doing something.

    aphrael (4c4719)

  17. YES! Let’s muzzle the press during an election. Like Biden, that Bill of Rights is over a century old. After all free speech and a free press were never intended for political matters, just porn and advertising respectively.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  18. It’s only contagious if someone is sick or going to feel sick within a day.

    Where did you get this information? Probably the most deadly part of this disease is that people ARE contagious before, and probably without, symptoms. It would not be spreading as we see it if it was only those sick or almost sick who could transmit it.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  19. I forgot he told his fanboys to vote twice. That is a forgettable story this year.

    It was characterized like that. What he was suggesting was that they vote by mail, but also go to their polling place and cast a provisional ballot if their mail ballot wasn’t recorded.

    I note in today’s LA Times, there’s a long article about signature verification, alleging large numbers of questionable signatures and invalidated ballots that in some cases exceed the winning margins.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  20. We should do like China, which has kept the death toll to 1 in 100,000.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  21. I’m glad we’re testing more lately, harkin, but positivity rates have been going up this month, which means we need to test more and trace more.

    Paul Montagu (77c694)

  22. “It was characterized like that. What he was suggesting was that they vote by mail, but also go to their polling place and cast a provisional ballot if their mail ballot wasn’t recorded.”

    I don’t agree with your interpretation.

    “Let them send it in and let them go vote, and if their system’s as good as they say it is, then obviously they won’t be able to vote,” the president said. “If it isn’t tabulated, they’ll be able to vote.”

    Davethulhu (4d2962)

  23. BTW, it’s part interesting and part nauseating to see Trump try to bullsh-t a virus and pretend that we’re “turning the corner”, but it’s just more lies.
    There were 81,581 new cases today and 1,030 more dead Americans (link), over half of whom died in states with Republican governors. These trends are going to continue past November 3rd.

    Paul Montagu (77c694)

  24. Trump tweeted:

    Cases up because we TEST, TEST, TEST. A Fake News Media Conspiracy. Many young people who heal very fast. 99.9%. Corrupt Media conspiracy at all time high. On November 4th., topic will totally change. VOTE!

    The sentence I put in bold implies he thinks Biden will win, because he can’t possibly think if he won the press would go easy on him regarding Covid. As DCSCA would say, that’s a tell!

    norcal (a5428a)

  25. “Let them send it in and let them go vote, and if their system’s as good as they say it is, then obviously they won’t be able to vote,” the president said. “If it isn’t tabulated, they’ll be able to vote.”

    Problem is that votes aren’t tabulated until after the polls close.

    Rip Murdock (305171)

  26. Rob Reiner is right. Trump wants to kill as many Americans as possible before he goes.

    nk (1d9030)

  27. Anyhow, this might be the reason the Covid has him pooping his pants more than Mueller did.

    nk (1d9030)

  28. What he was suggesting was that they vote by mail, but also go to their polling place and cast a provisional ballot if their mail ballot wasn’t recorded.

    I recall that. But he did tell his fanboys to vote twice regardless of what the explanation is. That’s pretty nuts in my book, and though I’m not an expert, probably isn’t helpful to the reliability of the election and might overwhelm the protections in place. No doubt these elections are imperfect but it’s rare a candidate wants them to be disbelieved.

    Dustin (4237e0)

  29. At one of his rallies Trump claimed (or complained) that the reason why doctors want to do more testing is so they can make more money.

    Think about that. He actually said that to applause from his rabid cult fans.

    Gawain's Ghost (b25cd1)

  30. aphrael (4c4719) — 10/28/2020 @ 5:16 pm

    Sammy — I think we should assume a tested-positive person is potentially infectious unless there is ample evidence that infectiousness requires symptoms.

    I think the situation is as follows:

    It does not require symptoms. However, we can reasonably assume – it is not absolutely proven and might not be the case perhaps a tiny fraction of the time, it does require a certain level of virus.

    Now the PCR test is extremely sensitive, but it is not reported in degrees. It’s just positive or not. Some people want them to report it in degrees, but they do not. The rapid tests are less sensitive, and are more in line with the boundary between contagiousness or not. People pretty much don’t reach that level unless they are going to feel sick within a day.

    This is the *safer* option, making sure that we treat ambiguous or unknown cases as risks,

    They are taking super-precautions, and they not only treat people who barely test positive as contagious, but people who might test positive in the future, (!) and they wait an enormous length of time to clear people who never become sick. 14 days is far more than you need to wait in a person without symptoms, or even without a positive test result. The only reason they do this is because such people have already come to the attention of doctors, but the people who created the guidelines know there are plenty who do not. (the vast majority, in fact. In the beginning they believed they could trace contacts. No longer, therefore Mark Meadows’ comment.)

    The interesting thing is that the period of time without symptoms necessary to clear people who do become sick is shorter than period of time without symptoms necessary to clear people who never do become sick! This is because the difference in the time periods is the result of history, and not reached by consistently applied medical science. The wildest assumptions are used to establish criteria, and then they almost need controlled medical studies to change anything.

    They actually don’t take super-precautions consistently, and for along time they knew exactly what they were doing (therefore Jared Kushner’s comment – although he should have said epidemiologists instead of doctors – because he did not believe a lot of the precautions and restrictions were necessary or valuable.)

    They were never applied consistently, according to anybody’s judgment of risk. They run up against practicality and what they think what people will put up with. There are inevitably value judgments and politics involved.

    And they avoided recommending testing in certain cases, rather than limiting what the reaction to the results might be, because they knew what they would have to do and they wanted the guidelines to be applied consistently. It was, and is, actually crazy. And Kushner knew it because he had become familiar with details.

    and it also helps deal with the problem that a non-symptomatic person may *become* symptomatic while they are out doing something.

    That is a problem, and people should be aware of that, but they can be also aware of the probabilities. The first day after a minimum positive test may not be worth worrying about.

    People also continue to test positive with a PCR test for a period of time after no longer being contagious, especially since the PCR test does not distinguish between live virus and dead virus or dead virus fragments.

    Also children under 10, for instance, are very unlikely to be able to infect anyone else.

    They’re never going to catch every potential case, which amounts to almost everyone in many localities. When it gets down to it, it is just about reducing R0 to a level where the virus fades away. (“magically disappears” in Donald Trump’s words)

    It fades away when you reach herd immunity, and there is a lot of confusion about that.

    Sammy Finkelman (a69e24)

  31. 29. Gawain’s Ghost (b25cd1) — 10/29/2020 @ 2:22 am

    At one of his rallies Trump claimed (or complained) that the reason why doctors want to do more testing is so they can make more money.

    He;s looking for an improper motive.

    Hospitals and most doctors lose money when more people are isolated, because there is less elective surgery for one thing. Let him look for another bad reason for wanting more testing.

    Trump is against more testing because he wants less quarantining (and he doesn’t believe more testing will affect the progress of the disease.)

    Sammy Finkelman (a69e24)

  32. 23. Paul Montagu (77c694) — 10/28/2020 @ 7:09 pm

    BTW, it’s part interesting and part nauseating to see Trump try to bullsh-t a virus and pretend that we’re “turning the corner”, but it’s just more lies.

    No, he’s right, because we are very close (within a month or two) of an announcement of a vaccine or a therapeutic (the antibodies)

    Although Democrats did their best, by expressing skepticism and distrust, it make sure that didn’t happen before the election. Trump doesn’t expect that to continue past November 3. He may be wrong there.

    The date keeps slipping.

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/25/health/us-coronavirus-friday/index.html

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/25/us/covid-vaccine-fauci/index.html

    But it is still just around the corner:

    https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/covid-19-vaccine-latest-update-october-28-6907360

    Covid-19 vaccines status check: Moderna, Pfizer aim to deliver shot by December
    Coronavirus

    …Serum Institute said the Covishield vaccine may be ready as early as December, with the first batch of 100 million doses available in India by the second or third quarter of 2021

    See also: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/12/health/coronavirus-monoclonal-antibodies-trump.html

    https://www.europeanpharmaceuticalreview.com/news/130121/us-enters-agreement-for-experimental-prophylactic-covid-19-antibody-cocktail

    There were 81,581 new cases today and 1,030 more dead Americans (link), over half of whom died in states with Republican governors. These trends are going to continue past November 3rd.

    Trump’s not paying atenton, or he doesn;t want voters to.

    Sammy Finkelman (a69e24)

  33. 3. Paul Montagu (77c694) — 10/28/2020 @ 7:09 pm
    BTW, it’s part interesting and part nauseating to see Trump try to bullsh-t a virus and pretend that we’re “turning the corner”, but it’s just more lies.
    No, he’s right, because we are very close (within a month or two) of an announcement of a vaccine or a therapeutic (the antibodies)

    Although Democrats did their best, by expressing skepticism and distrust, it make sure that didn’t happen before the election. Trump doesn’t expect that to continue past November 3. He may be wrong there.

    The date keeps slipping.

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/25/health/us-coronavirus-friday/index.html

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/25/us/covid-vaccine-fauci/index.html

    But it is still just around the corner:

    https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/covid-19-vaccine-latest-update-october-28-6907360
    Covid-19 vaccines status check: Moderna, Pfizer aim to deliver shot by December

    …Serum Institute said the Covishield vaccine may be ready as early as December, with the first batch of 100 million doses available in India by the second or third quarter of 2021

    Sammy Finkelman (a69e24)

  34. There were 81,581 new cases today and 1,030 more dead Americans (link), over half of whom died in states with Republican governors. These trends are going to continue past November 3rd.

    Trump’s not paying attention, or he doesn’t want voters to.

    But he’s not making things up about turning the corner. And he probably think the dates going to stop slipping after the election.

    That we are getting closer to the end is in the news.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/12/health/coronavirus-monoclonal-antibodies-trump.html

    https://www.europeanpharmaceuticalreview.com/news/130121/us-enters-agreement-for-experimental-prophylactic-covid-19-antibody-cocktail

    Sammy Finkelman (a69e24)

  35. 18.Maybe it can be two days (but remember, they are trying for a maximum and two days may mean 1 1.2 days)

    https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-detail/coronavirus-disease-covid-19-how-is-it-transmitted

    When do infected people transmit the virus?

    Whether or not they have symptoms, infected people can be contagious and the virus can spread from them to other people.

    Laboratory data suggests that infected people appear to be most infectious just before they develop symptoms (namely 2 days before they develop symptoms) and early in their illness. People who develop severe disease can be infectious for longer.

    While someone who never develops symptoms can pass the virus to others, it is still not clear how frequently this occurs and more research is needed in this area.

    I read some newsaper article tat referenced this.

    Also:

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/25/health/covid-19-testing-cdc.html

    Experts questioned the revision, pointing to the importance of identifying infections in the small window [emphasis mine] immediately before the onset of symptoms, when many individuals appear to be most contagious.

    Models suggest that about half of transmission events can be traced back to individuals still in this so-called pre-symptomatic stage, before they start to feel ill — if they ever feel sick at all.

    Not everybody who feels sick gets tested or even goes to a doctor.

    Sammy Finkelman (a69e24)

  36. Think about that. He actually said that to applause from his rabid cult fans.

    Every accusation by Trump is a confession.

    Dave (1bb933)

  37. They knew about dogs months ago. And they;re still conducting studies merely yo prove that it works.

    https://www.rappler.com/science/life-health/finland-covid-19-sniffer-dog-trial-extremely-positive

    …Three dogs, named Kossi, ET, and Miina, have sniffed swabs taken from 2,200 passengers in the month since the testing booth was set up at the airport’s arrivals hall, and have found the virus in 0.6% of travelers.

    Although the research is not due for completion until December, the team say the initial findings appear broadly in line with detection rates of the nasal PCR tests also conducted on arriving travelers…

    ….Preliminary experiments in the first major wave of infections earlier in the year suggested the dogs can detect the virus with close to 100% accuracy, up to 5 days earlier than a PCR test.
    Feedback….

    …The Helsinki University researchers behind the trial, working with sniffer-dog specialists from the organization Wise Nose, hope that their research will persuade the government to fund a rollout of the dogs for other uses, such as at tourist hotspots or large public gatherings.

    Although sniffer dog trials have been undertaken elsewhere, such as in the UAE, France, Russia, and Chile, use of canine scent-detectors to bolster coronavirus testing has not yet been widely adopted by authorities, in part because of a lack of peer-reviewed literature, some researchers believe. </b?

    Dog handling charities have previously worked with dogs to detect cancers, Parkinson's disease and bacterial infections using samples taken from humans.

    It’s like this with everything — except social distancing, shutdowns, masks, and other non pharmacological interventions, which were adopted without peer reviewed literature.

    Sammy Finkelman (a69e24)

  38. I recall that. But he did tell his fanboys to vote twice regardless of what the explanation is. That’s pretty nuts in my book, and though I’m not an expert, probably isn’t helpful to the reliability of the election and might overwhelm the protections in place. No doubt these elections are imperfect but it’s rare a candidate wants them to be disbelieved.

    The crap he says is consistent with him having only a passing understanding of how the election process works. This is just another in a long line of examples. His most recent is an insistence that if we can’t call the election on 11/3 it will be invalid.

    One of the things I hold against Trump is how eagerly he will attacks our system of government based on ignorance and conspiracy theories for short term political advantage. It really makes me doubt both is patriotism and the patriotism of the his passionate supporters. I just don’t think they place a high value on the USA.

    Time123 (7cca75)

  39. No, he’s right, because we are very close (within a month or two) of an announcement of a vaccine or a therapeutic (the antibodies)

    He’s been lying since last February that it’ll just go away, Sammy, and he’s lying now. It’s going to get worse before things get better. The best accounts of widespread vaccine availability are next spring.
    This is akin to his years-long lie that he’ll deliver a healthcare plan that’s better than Obamacare.

    Paul Montagu (77c694)

  40. Oh yeah the healthcare plan is just a couple weeks away lol

    Dustin (4237e0)

  41. The headline in the printed paper for the following story is better:

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/28/us/politics/trump-coronavirus.html

    In Final Election Sprint,
    Trump Runs as if Virus
    Were Already Defeated
    —————
    Says Country is `Rounding the Corner” as
    Hospitals Fill and Stocks Plunge

    Sammy Finkelman (a69e24)

  42. He thinks calling it “the China virus” is fighting it. That’s his mentality. Unfortunately, so is that of his supporters.

    nk (1d9030)

  43. Paul Montagu (77c694) — 10/29/2020 @ 6:45 am

    He’s been lying since last February that it’ll just go away, Sammy, and he’s lying now.

    Trump is like the boy who cried sheepdog. I don’t think he’s talking about the same thing either, in both cases. Then it was that it will just go away, and now it s because of vaccines and treatments, so that it would become as small of a problem as whooping cough. He was not lying then, he was wrong, and wrong because it was being compared to the flu. But it was, or shod have been, an obvious mistake:

    Fart’s law of epidemics doesn’t apply when an epidemic diminishes because of social distancing and precautions and not because the disease runs out of people to infect, that is, because of herd immunity.

    In that case, as soon as you lift the restrictions you are back where you started, minus an adjustment for the level of herd immunity achieved. Kushner and Trump and all the rest didn’t understand that.

    Part of the blame is maybe the medical advisers like Dr Fauci, but the medical advisers kept on giving short time frames for the length of time the lockdowns and all needed to be in place because they wanted the politicians to implement them. (It wouldn’t be only Trump who would reject a 1 1/2 year lockdown, although Trump would reject it more than others.)

    Sammy Finkelman (a69e24)

  44. I think Trump thinks calling it the China virus is a way of saying he is not to blame for it. In ther words, take it out on Xi Jinping, not him.

    Sammy Finkelman (a69e24)

  45. I think Trump thinks calling it the China virus is a way of saying he is not to blame for it. In ther words, take it out on Xi Jinping, not him.

    Sammy Finkelman (a69e24) — 10/29/2020 @ 7:37 am

    Trump’s big and bad when talking to an old woman trying to interview him civilly. In a room with Xi he probably has to double up on the depends and take a lot of anxiety meds.

    The USA has such a coward for a president. Jimmy Carter wasn’t great, but he’s Rambo compared to President Talks Tough.

    Dustin (4237e0)

  46. Trump is coming off like Baghdad Bob because nobody believes him about a cure or a vaccine to stop the epidemic unless they already think so independently. And even on that case, it looks like Trump is conflating two things: Progress toward successful medicine and where we are now.

    Half of what he says is true, and half of it is not, or somewhat off, and it’s getting to be that nobody believes him.

    Cases are not deaths. He either recovered because of his own inherent vigor or the drug he got from Regeneron works (Trump prefers the Superman angle, so he’s not arguing with those who say we can’t yet say it works)

    But the recent spike in cases is not merely a statistical artifact.

    We are rounding the corner – not by controlling its spread, but by developing treatments. Ron Klein did say they didn’t know what they were doing.

    But Biden’s former chief of staff didn’t say it was a disaster, he said “we got lucky” and he wasn’t talking about anything Biden personally did, but rather, the Obama Administration.

    Trump, if he wanted to could talk about how the stockpile of epidemic related material was depleted, and not replenished.

    .

    Sammy Finkelman (a69e24)

  47. Here’s how Trump goes about the virus: (last week)

    https://www.rev.com/blog/transcripts/donald-trump-rally-speech-transcript-the-villages-florida-october-23

    …All Biden and his handlers in the media want to talk about today is COVID, COVID, COVID. You know that. You just turn on CNN, look, their light just went off, you turn on CNN, you turn on MSDNC, you turn on these networks, there’s COVID, COVID, COVID. On November 4th, you won’t hear anything about it because we are rounding that turn. You won’t hear. But they wanted to scare you to try to make you vote for Biden. That’s all he can talk about because his record is horrible.

    And by the way, his record with the H1N1, which he always refers to as swine flu, was horrendous. The person that ran it, his chief of staff, right, Steve, ran it, the person, the chief of staff said it was a catastrophe. “We didn’t know what we were doing.” It was an absolute disaster. Now he’s going to come in and tell us what to do.

    Do you ever see where he said, “You were late,” except when I closed it to China, he said I shouldn’t close it….

    ….I wasn’t feeling great and I’m laying in bed, and one thing when you’re President, you’re going to find this out, Mr. Congressman, one thing, when you’re President, you’re not feeling good, you’re laying in a bed, you’ve got more doctors than any human being has ever had. I had 12 doctors, I had doctors from the greatest schools in the world. John’s Hopkins was there and Walter Reed Medical Center. These people are unbelievable, the job they do. The job they do for our incredible soldiers, our wounded warriors, our people that come home that are badly injured, badly hurt, the job they do is incredible. So I’m laying there not feeling my best, and every doctor had a different specialty, and I had more hands on me than any human being, and I didn’t like it. I said, “Come on, let’s make this quick.”

    But the bottom line is I took this Regeneron, it’s called, and I wake up the next morning and I felt like Superman. It’s like, “Get me out of here. I’ve got to get back to the people.” I don’t know. Maybe it works. Maybe it doesn’t. Maybe it was me. No, there he is. Superman. Look at that. Super Trump. Wow. Look at this guy…

    ….We’ll have 100 million vaccine doses before the end of this year and seniors will be the first in line. We’re taking care of our seniors. Under my plan, you will get incredible lifesaving therapies. Our therapies are incredible. Remdesivir just got approved. You saw that. Just today got approved.

    And the FDA has moved at a pace that they’ve never moved before. They’re approving things in weeks which used to take years. That’s a little prodding for [sic] me, I have to be honest with you. But they’re doing it. They’re doing it. They’re doing a great job. You will get a vaccine that ends the epidemic or the pandemic and it ends it and eradicates it. But without it, it goes away. But with it, it goes away faster, and it’s going to happen very, very soon. You’re going to have it very soon. A lot of great companies are right there. You’ll get to see your friends, families, and loved ones and you’ll get to enjoy being with them in their golden years. It’s a sad thing where you can’t be near people. I mean, did you ever hear of anything like this? You can’t be near people when they’re in trouble. But where we’re going to be very close. We’re very, very close. You watch.

    Under Biden’s land, you’ll be locked down for years. The cure will be worse than the problem itself. Remember that. You’ve got to lead your life. And you know what? Some people want to say it and that’s good. Do it, do it. I’m like, lead your life, right? And some people agree with me. But if you want to stay in, if you want to do what you’re doing, you do it. If you want to get out and you want to be careful and socially distance and all of the things, you could wear a mask if you can’t socially distance, but there are a lot of things you can do. But some people want to stay in. And that’s okay. There’s nothing wrong with it. But you’re going to have a vaccine and it’s going to be an incredible success.

    Wait until you see these vaccines that they’re coming out with, and you’re going to have therapeutics and therapies and cures. To me, the cure or the therapy is more important than the vaccine. Not everybody agrees. [I agree]

    I think you go in, and even the fact that it’s there, Regeneron, it had a hell of an effect on me. And somebody said I looked better last night than I used to. And I said, “I think it was Regeneron.” But to me, I don’t know, maybe not everybody agrees, but to me knowing that there’s something that can knock it out, to me, is actually more important than a vaccine. [It’s more important because it will help people who didn’t get vaccinated, and it should work 100% of the times, and in principle, although maybe not in reality as it has played out, it’s easier to produce, and it can also be used for prevention]

    But the vaccines are coming. Therapeutics are already here and coming, and, in my opinion, the therapeutics in some cases are already cures.

    So why wasn’t he arguing with Biden about that?

    Sammy Finkelman (a69e24)

  48. Trump is coming off like Baghdad Bob because nobody believes him about a cure or a vaccine to stop the epidemic unless they already think so independently

    Well yeah.

    It’s ‘contained’ at 13 cases, gone by April, HCQ is effective, they are researching disinfectant products?

    If Trump said something I believed already, I would believe it less.

    Trump, if he wanted to could talk about how the stockpile of epidemic related material was depleted, and not replenished.

    No doubt, that’s one way the Obama administration really failed the country. But Trump promised to do a better job, had three years to fix it and failed… at least Obama had an excuse for why he used the stuff up. Trump has no real explanation. Instead i’ve got Trump bullying General Motors for trying to make ventilators, Jared screwing around with my state’s supplies.

    And Trump’s lying to us about the problem, holding back on taking it seriously so stocks could sell high, let China and the rest of the world clear the shelves of stock. We were playing catch up. Trump’s constant need to make it hard to trust the pros (this post is a great example) has an additional effect. There’s no chance of the nation coming together and succeeding. If we all wore masks and distanced as much as we could, all of us treated the thing like a killer instead of a common cold, it would be vastly better, we could have great national pride about it. But nope… not gonna happen with this POS president.

    Dustin (4237e0)

  49. Well, Hillary Clinton has joined the electoral college.

    https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2020/10/28/electoral-college-hillary-clinton-new-york-state-elector/6065216002/

    So I guess that means the election is in the bag.

    But there are 11 trillion reasons to vote against Biden.

    https://reason.com/2020/10/27/11-trillion-reasons-to-fear-joe-bidens-presidency/

    Which is worse, a Trump Republican or a Biden Democrat?

    I’ll be voting against every Republican this year. I’ll be voting Democrat where I must, and Libertarian where I can.

    Gawain's Ghost (b25cd1)

  50. Paul Montagu (77c694) — 10/29/2020 @ 6:45 am

    The best accounts of widespread vaccine availability are next spring.

    Even actually according to Trump.

    He’s promising seniors will be first, but it will probably not be recommended for those over 80 years old. That’s the kind of thing Trump doesn’t notice.

    This is akin to his years-long lie that he’ll deliver a healthcare plan that’s better than Obamacare.

    No, it’s different because there’s really work going on there with therapeutics and vaccines.

    The people working on it are all outside the government, and they have the profit motive – but a conditional profit motive, going for them (that’s also a demerit because it causes people not to fight the FDA, which means be very careful about advertising it) and there multiple competing solutions and almost all of the people working on it see a clear path. It’s not cutting edge science. Even the new approaches have years of research behind them.

    A health care plan, on the other hand has the problem of conflicting requirements. It;s like suaring he circle. Something has to give.

    Sammy Finkelman (a69e24)

  51. You could come uop with aplan in 3 weeks if you were willing to spend money. The putlines are simple:

    1) Take many medical expenses out of the insurance system – both basics and pre-existing conditions.
    get much mor than 12% of costs to matter at the time of purchase.

    2) Do not allow the money assigned to basics to accumulate, but after a certain period of time they must be either spent, converted into gift cards, or given away either to a specific person or a charity.

    3) Give everyone a refundable tax rebate, of which say $1,500 per person per year cannot be used for insurance. Anything used for insurance is distributed in the form of a direct deposit to the insurance company. Otherwise it is like food stamps. If someone is on amployee insurance program the tax rebate goes to the employee

    4) Abolish Medicaid and all eligibility requirements.

    5) Increase price transparency and solve the problem of surprise billing. Maybe regulations for some other lines of business like home repair or mving expenses, where they work, can be used as a model.

    6) Allow some future Social Security benefits or tax refunds to be tapped for unplanned medical expenses or perhaps borrowed against.

    7) Something to prevent medical debt from accumulating, perhaps a special provision of the bankruptcy laws for that.

    8. Tax something, maybe some sort of a consumption tax, to pay for the extra costs to the government.

    Sammy Finkelman (a69e24)

  52. He was not lying then, he was wrong, and wrong because it was being compared to the flu.

    He was lying, Sammy, because we know from the Woodward audiotapes that he knew early on that it was a major serious virus, and he deliberately chose to lie about it and downtalk it, just as he’s trying to downtalk it and minimize it and lie about it to this day.
    Every since he started his “turning the corner” rhetoric, the cases and hospitalizations and positivity rates and deaths have gotten worse, and they’re only going to further worsen through at least November. At least, that’s what the real experts are saying. He’s trying to gaslight us by telling us not to believe our lying eyes. Are you so gullible that you would take anything he says at face value? After four years of his constant lies?

    Paul Montagu (307426)

  53. 9) Maybe require every person or institution which accepts money from this program to forgive a certain percentage of its medical bills, including in advance.

    * . If someone is on employee insurance program the tax rebate goes to the employee who may be required to use it only to reimburse the employer.

    Sammy Finkelman (a69e24)

  54. It may be time to reset expectations on when we’ll get a Covid-19 vaccine
    …….
    It is important to note that, to date, none of the vaccines being developed for the U.S. market has been proven to be effective in preventing Covid-19 disease. Early stage clinical trials have shown what appear to be promising signals; multiple vaccines have triggered production of important antibodies in people who have been immunized.

    The administration has been saying for months that vaccine would be ready for deployment before the end of the year. In fact, President Trump had been hinting vaccine could be pushed out before Election Day, which it will not be; at a campaign rally on Wednesday night, he said vaccine would be ready “momentarily.”

    Other officials have been bullish in their own right. Just last Friday, Paul Mango, deputy chief of staff for policy for Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar, reiterated the administration’s projection that all Americans who want to be vaccinated against Covid-19 will have that opportunity by the early spring.

    “We believe before the end of this year we will be able to vaccinate our most vulnerable citizens,” Mango told journalists in an update on the work of Operation Warp Speed, the government’s effort to fast-track Covid-19 vaccines, drugs, and diagnostics.

    “By the end of January, we believe we’ll be able to vaccinate all seniors. By the March and April timeframe, we believe we’ll be able to vaccinate any American who desires a vaccination,” Mango said.

    In reality, that timeline has always been aspirational — probably excessively so. While Warp Speed and vaccine manufacturers and others involved in the effort have moved heaven and earth to accelerate vaccine production, at the end of the day, developing, testing, and manufacturing vaccines takes time. Vaccines are difficult to produce and there are always bumps in the road.
    ……..

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  55. Any health care plan that doesn’t cover pre-existing conditions is DOA. That horse has left the barn.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  56. 52. Paul Montagu (307426) — 10/29/2020 @ 8:44 am

    He was lying, Sammy, because we know from the Woodward audiotapes that he knew early on that it was a major serious virus

    Everybody knew that.

    That Trump concealed something here is a major piece of false election year propaganda.

    Worse even than the claim that Amy Coney Barrett was going to rule to throw out Obamacare. (when she already ruled against that lawsuit in a moot case.

    https://www.heraldextra.com/news/opinion/national-editorials/lowry-amy-coney-barrett-hasnt-been-nominated-for-health-care-czar/article_2956febb-033d-570e-8821-28e94063c60f.html

    If Barrett is really on a mission to strike down all of the ACA, she could show up and find herself the lone vote to do so. But there’s no reason to believe she is on such an assignment. Barrett was one of a number of judges participating in a moot court at William & Mary Law School in September that considered the ACA suit. The votes were anonymous, but not one judge favored throwing out the healthcare law.

    (They split 5-3, either on the merits or on standing.)

    Trump couldn’t deny that, though. because he couldn’t say his joining in in that lawsuit was political posturing and he wasn’t serious at all about that, and wouldn’t know what to do if the lawsuit, unexpectedly, succeeded.

    And Senators couldn’t mention the moot court case – maybe some did – because that might be forcing her to recuse herself.

    Back to Trump early on not sounding the alarm.

    and he deliberately chose to lie about it and downtalk it,

    What Trump thought at the time was that it could be contained.

    The Centers for Disease Control was claiming it could be contained.

    https://www.cbsnews.com/news/transcript-scott-gottlieb-discusses-coronavirus-on-face-the-nation-september-13-2020

    ….And what CDC officials were relying on and telling the coronavirus task force was that there was no spread of coronavirus in the United States in February, they were telling them that because they were looking at what we call the influenza-like illness surveillance network, basically a surveillance network of who’s presenting to hospitals with flu-like symptoms.

    And they said that they’re seeing no spike in people presenting with respiratory symptoms, therefore, coronavirus must not be spreading. And they were adamant about that.

    I was talking to White House officials over this time period. They were adamant about that. [the CDC officials]

    And I suspect the president was being told as well that this virus wasn’t spreading in the United States. And that may have impacted what he did and didn’t say and his willingness to, you know, as he said, talk it down a little bit because he was of the perception that this was not spreading here in the United States.

    That really was the tragic mistake, not just that we didn’t have the information, but we were so confident in drawing conclusions off of what proved to be faulty information and incomplete information.

    MARGARET BRENNAN: Are you saying he was failed by health officials? Are you letting him off the hook?

    DR. GOTTLIEB: Look, I think in this respect, the White House leadership was failed by health officials.

    We did not have a diagnostic in the field, so we couldn’t screen for it. We should have. We should have started working on that in January. And we over-relied on a surveillance system that was built for flu and not for coronavirus without recognizing that it wasn’t going to be as sensitive at detecting coronavirus spread as it was for flu because the two viruses spread very differently.

    Those were two critical failings. Now, you could say, well, the president put those people in place, he’s responsible. You know, you can make second-order arguments around that.

    But I think ultimately the White House did not have the information they need to make decisions. The key function of agencies and the government is to provide policymakers with accurate, actionable information. The White House didn’t have it.

    And I had a lot of conversations with the White House over this time period because I was concerned it was spreading here, and I was pushing them on that. And they were- they were telling me over and over that they were hearing from top officials from the agencies that they were pretty confident that it wasn’t spreading here. I think when history looks back, that’s going to be a key moment. That’s what was going on over February.

    just as he’s trying to downtalk it and minimize it and lie about it to this day.
    Every since he started his “turning the corner” rhetoric, the cases and hospitalizations and positivity rates and deaths have gotten worse, and they’re only going to further worsen through at least November. At least, that’s what the real experts are saying. He’s trying to gaslight us by telling us not to believe our lying eyes. Are you so gullible that you would take anything he says at face value? After four years of his constant lies?

    Sammy Finkelman (a69e24)

  57. 55. Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 10/29/2020 @ 9:06 am

    Any health care plan that doesn’t cover pre-existing conditions is DOA. That horse has left the barn.

    Health care expenses can be split into 3 parts

    1. Basic – paid for by part of the tax credit and also to some limited degree, out of a person’s own resources. This mioht include a doughnut hole.

    2. Insurance for unpredictable costs. That’s what insurance is.

    3. Pre-existing conditions, (or higher than predicted costs or costs above a certain dollar amount) paid for by the federal government.

    The simplest, although not the most ideal, way would be to have them paid for by Medicare, like kidney dialysis is.

    One problem will be properly separated pre-existing conditions from what should be covered by Medicare.

    But the more covered by Medicare, the lower the premiums.

    BTW there should be no restrictions on doctors, except maybe a person would be limited to one (or a split into 2 or 3 or more locations) primary care doctor, who would get a flat rate. Which should eliminate the obstacles to telemedicine, or examination mostly by visiting nurses. If a flat rate, there must be complete freedom to choose and switch. Concierge servcice should be the model.

    Sammy Finkelman (a69e24)

  58. I mean properly separating non-pre-existing conditions from what should be covered by Medicare.

    It’s not really so hard to draw something up. You just have to fund pre-existing conditions from something than insurance premiums. To get something market based (to cut costs but avoid rationing) you need price transparency and an end to surprise billing. T make this affordable for everyone you need refundable tax rebates. To pay for the extra costs, no longer paid for by individuals or businesses you need a new tax. And you can eliminate needless visits to doctors. I would pay more for unscheduled appointments than for scheduled ones.

    Sammy Finkelman (a69e24)

  59. Paul Montagu @ 8:44 am

    PM>

    Are you so gullible that you would take anything he says at face value?

    I don’t take anything he says at face value, but I assess each statement individually.

    “What’s going into it? What is his probable thinking process? What explanation for his words makes the most sense? What kinds of lies does he tell, and what kinds of lies does he not tell? If x were the truth would he say this? Or does y make more sense? If x were the truth, what would he say? Not this maybe. If y were what could he say then? Is this a trope with him, or would this be something new if it were a lie?”

    You need to triangulate.

    Every since he started his “turning the corner” rhetoric, the cases and hospitalizations and positivity rates and deaths have gotten worse, and they’re only going to further worsen through at least November. At least, that’s what the real experts are saying.

    No, they are. But Trump isn;t the only one who was a little bit slow in realizing this.

    He’s trying to gaslight us by telling us not to believe our lying eyes.

    I don’t know. He’s not really that stupid.

    Turning the corner in his Florida speech last Friday may be referring to the survival rate. I think thid is largely a misunderstanding of statistics. He’s too impressed with it not to mgenuinely misunderstand it.

    … All he [Biden] talks about is COVID, COVID, COVID because they want to scare people. And we’ve done so well with it. Now it’s 99.8%. I mean, you look at what’s going on and we’re rounding the turn. We’re rounding the corner. We’re rounding the corner beautifully.

    Then he goes into this riff:

    But Joe Biden was very disrespectful last night to President Barack Hussein Obama. You saw that. Barack Hussein Obama. [realizes he might be criticized for that and seeks support] Remember Rush Limbaugh would always do that. He’d do, “Barack Hussein Obama.” And Rush is doing okay.

    He only had announced that week that his lung cancer was terminal and things are going in the wrong direction and he doesn’t have hope, never did, hadn’t expected to make it to October 1 and the doctors are still trying. So Trump finds an excuse for saying that:

    Rush is great, isn’t he? Do we love Rush? He’s got such guts and he’s going through a lot, but he’s got courage like you people have. He always has had courage.

    Back to Biden. Trump explains why he says Biden was disrespectful to Obama: He tried to say the buck stopped with Obama wile, according to Trump. the buck stopped with the former vice president.

    At last night’s debate, though, he was very disrespectful, really disrespectful. When he said that he, Joe, was vice president, not president, blaming Obama when trying to make excuses for the failed immigration policies, right? You saw that? “I wasn’t the president. It was him.” Because we talked about cages, right? I said, ” Joe, you built the cages.” Remember, they tried to say “cages for children.” And they said, “Trump built cages.” And then they found out it was a little problem. There was a picture in the New York Times, the failing New York Times. If you take a look at what its unfunded liability is, check it out sometime. It’s definitely failing. It’s only a question of when.

    But you take a look at the failing New York Times and they had a picture of a cage and they thought that I built it. And it said “cage.” And then somebody called me, they said, “Sir, that was built,” one of the people that helped build it, “that was built in 2014.” I said, “2014, I didn’t happen to be president.” It was built under Obama/Sleepy Joe Biden. And so did you notice when I kept saying, “Why did you build the cages, Joe? Why did you?” And he just kept talking. He didn’t want any part of it. But they started it.

    Sammy Finkelman (a69e24)

  60. I don’t take anything he says at face value, but I assess each statement individually.

    Good. Because he was promising a vaccine by the end of this month, and that the military would mass-distribute vaccines by the end of the year. What happened to that? Why do so many of his proclamations end up being worthless and dishonest? Here’s a better idea: Why not presume everything he says is false until someone can prove it true?
    And now he’s cast aside the CV19 Task Force and became an acolyte of Scott Atlas, an anti-masker and advocate of herd immunity. How is that going to improve his credibility?

    Paul Montagu (58b0f4)

  61. It will be interesting to see how the pandemic improves between the election and Inauguration. Vaccines for all on Jan 21st!

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  62. Paul Montagu (58b0f4) — 10/29/2020 @ 11:34 am

    Because he was promising a vaccine by the end of this month,

    The deadline slipped.

    At the end of September, it was late November or early December:

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/25/health/us-coronavirus-friday/index.html

    Covid-19 vaccinations could start as early as November or December, Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation’s leading infectious disease expert, said Friday.

    By late October, it was December.

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/25/us/covid-vaccine-fauci/index.html

    “We will know whether a vaccine is safe and effective by the end of November, beginning of December,” the director of the US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases said. “The amount of doses that will be available in December will not certainly be enough to vaccinate everybody — you’ll have to wait several months into 2021.”

    Speaking to the BBC’s Andrew Marr Show, Fauci added that the vaccination of a “substantial proportion of the population” so there could be a “significant impact on the dynamics of the outbreak” may not be possible until the second or third quarter of 2021.

    Now it is slipping a bit more: (although if you read it, there;s no real change – Election Day hasn’t been in the cards for along time)

    https://www.statnews.com/2020/10/29/it-may-be-time-to-reset-expectations-on-when-well-get-a-covid-19-vaccine Anna Durbin, a vaccine researcher at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, said the public needs to understand that Covid vaccines may be a bit further off than people have been led to believe.

    But Pfizer, which has been one of the most aggressive players in the vaccine race, had earlier predicted it would know by the end of September if its vaccine worked — an estimate that was later pushed back to late October. The company now projects that it could apply to the FDA for an emergency use authorization for the vaccine, which it is developing with BioNTech, in mid-November.

    But since it takes about four or five weeks for even speeded up FDA to approve the paperwork, mid-November means, at best, late December, and Trump may be a lame duck by then.

    But perhaps he expects the Democrats to stop accusing him of speeding it up too much if he loses. Fat chance of that. Maybe he’ll trade Democratic Party buy in to a vaccine for a concession and co-operation in a transition. But he’s probably not that interested and it would have to e done very carefully.

    Sammy Finkelman (a69e24)

  63. More from today;s link:

    Anna Durbin, a vaccine researcher at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, said the public needs to understand that Covid vaccines may be a bit further off than people have been led to believe.

    “We may see efficacy in one or more trials by the end of 2020, but that doesn’t mean we’re going to have a vaccine available at the end of 2020,” she said.

    In other words, it’s being pushed into January.

    The obstacles, however, are not scientific, but legal and bureaucratic. The FDA changed the rules in the middle of the game. They made it absolute requirement that two months pass after vaccination. Worse maybe, at least ethically, it demanded that at least five people getting the placebo get very sick or die. which they may have thought would stick it to the vaccine companies, but whaddaya know? – there’s an upsurge in infections! Just what the FDA ordered. That could advance the date again at least back into December..

    Trump was fighting them on the demand that five people get critically ill or die for each vaccine, but he gave up because he didn’t want to be accused by the Democrats of interfering with the approval process.

    I know this sounds like a bizarro world, but that’s what it is.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/05/us/politics/coronavirus-vaccine-guidelines.html

    ..A survey published last month by the Pew Research Center found that 51 percent of Americans would either probably or definitely take one, down from 72 percent in May.

    Dr. Peter Marks, the F.D.A.’s top regulator for vaccines, said last week in an event organized by Friends of Cancer Research that the government had to be transparent about the standards it was using to evaluate experimental vaccines in order to build public trust….

    ….Privately, Dr. Marks has told colleagues that an angry tweet from Mr. Trump attacking F.D.A. scientists over the guidelines could damage public confidence in a coronavirus vaccine….

    ….In addition to the two-month follow-up period, the guidelines stated that there should be at least five cases of severe infection in the placebo group as evidence that a vaccine is effective in preventing more than just mild to moderate illness. About 10 percent of Covid-19 cases are considered severe.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/20/health/covid-vaccines-fda-trump.html

    In early September, a small team of experts in the F.D.A.’s Office of Vaccines Research and Review drafted new guidelines, to make its standards unmistakable to drugmakers and reassure jittery Americans that the agency would not cut corners when assessing a vaccine’s safety and effectiveness, including after granting an emergency authorization.

    Why were they jittery? Because of the Democrats. There wasn’t anything actually wrong with what was going on; the article doesn’t say that.

    But the thing is, they felt a vaccine needed bipartisan support, or many people wouldn’t take it.

    Half the population is still not going to take it, no matter what.

    Sammy Finkelman (a69e24)

  64. and that the military would mass-distribute vaccines by the end of the year. What happened to that?

    I think Trmp maybe thinks it is so, but it would be only as alast resort, and there’s no need for it. And as for this idea of giving seniors this first, some below 80 probably, they may be ahead of some others, but not first.

    https://reason.com/2020/10/23/trump-is-wrong-about-military-distribution-of-a-covid-19-vaccine

    “Our best military assessment is that there is sufficient U.S. commercial transportation capacity to fully support vaccine distribution,” Department of Defense (DOD) spokesman Charles Pritchard told American Shipper, a logistics industry publication, last month. “There should be no need for a large commitment of DOD units or personnel to support the nationwide distribution of vaccines.”

    “For the overwhelming majority of Americans,” Paul Mango of the Department of Health and Human Services told The New York Times, “there will be no federal official who touches any of this vaccine before it’s injected into Americans.”

    ….It’s true that some military resources are involved in Operation Warp Speed, the public-private partnership that aims to invent, produce, and deliver 300 million doses of a coronavirus vaccine by January 2021. But once a vaccine is developed, any military involvement, according to Pritchard, would likely be just “to deliver vaccines to a remote location only if no other means of transportation is feasible.”

    Unless you’re really committed to social distancing—living in an isolated shack in the middle of Alaska, perhaps—your COVID-19 vaccine will probably be distributed just like your flu shot: through your local doctor’s office or pharmacy.

    https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/10/who-is-first-in-line-coronavirus-vaccine

    …The first recipients are obvious picks: health-care workers, emergency responders, people with underlying conditions, and older adults living in group settings….The second phase of the recommended rollout would include the remaining adults older than 65, K–12 teachers, school staff, and childcare workers—as well as essential workers in industries such as meatpacking that don’t allow social distancing. Residents and staff of group homes, homeless shelters, prisons, and detention centers also fit into this category.

    Children, young adults under 30, and other critical workers at increased risk are in the third group. The fourth wave includes everyone else residing in the U.S.

    Why children are put in this report ahead of middle aged adults is not too clear. Habit I guess.

    You can see how completely unscientific this whole thing is.

    Sammy Finkelman (a69e24)

  65. The deadline slipped.

    It wasn’t a “deadline”, it was a pledge, and the end of October was directly contradicted by Redfield and others. He pulled that date directly out of his large colon, without any backing from his team of experts. It was a lie, done for nothing more than political reasons, to serve his personal political ambitions.

    Paul Montagu (44a4b4)

Leave a Reply

Comment moderation is enabled. Your comment may take some time to appear.


Powered by WordPress.

Page loaded in: 0.3458 secs.