Patterico's Pontifications

10/6/2020

What Is Donald Trump Hiding?

Filed under: General — Patterico @ 8:29 am



I know he had a triumphant evening news return to the White House (Medical Unit), ripping off his mask and telling supporters not to be afraid of COVID just because it killed 200,000+ of their fellow Americans. But people thought Herman Cain was doing better just days before he passed. Even the president’s doctor, no paragon of forthrightness, warned that Trump is “not out of the woods” and I agree with Conor Friedersdorf:

In that vein, it’s useful to look at the questions the doctor didn’t answer yesterday, citing HIPAA regulations (translation: “Trump has not given me permission to talk about this”). For example:

When was his last negative test? Has he had any abnormal tests?

Does he have pneumonia? What is the condition of his lungs?

When did he first test positive? They won’t say. The Wall Street Journal reported a positive test earlier on Thursday before he spoke to Hannity and said he was waiting for test results (presumably referring to the PCR test). Was he tested for the debate? Did he have a positive rapid test before going to his New Jersey fundraiser? We have no definitive answers to those questions, so far as I am aware.

When people are forthcoming about some things and evasive about others it is obvious there is something bad underlying the evasiveness.

What is going on? What is Trump hiding?

UPDATE: Dana embedded this last night but it’s worth watching closely again. It is very uncomfortable to watch. He is clearly having trouble breathing.

134 Responses to “What Is Donald Trump Hiding?”

  1. The walls are closing in!

    Jerryskids (702a61)

  2. When people are forthcoming about some things and evasive about others it is obvious there is something bad underlying the evasiveness.

    This line of thought will sure come in handy the next four years.

    beer ‘n pretzels (8854a1)

  3. Guess we will find out in a week…I can’t trust Trump’s own reports because he is on a steroid high.

    Appalled (1a17de)

  4. It’s unfortunate that Trump is so concerned about his image in some ways, but not others.

    norcal (a5428a)

  5. This line of thought will sure come in handy the next four years.

    beer ‘n pretzels (8854a1) — 10/6/2020 @ 9:15 am

    I agree. It will be critical to hold Biden accountable. The ‘nice’ leader after the unpopular guy, who created the potential for lawlessness, that’s usually the one you have to watch.

    Trump’s instinct that he needs to get out of the hospital, he’s probably right on the politics. My read of all this is a constant battle between Trump to leave, that car ride, then he left, and his hospital is under the White House now. He’s setting a bad example, but that cake was baked a while ago. He’s taking a risk that he will be in the majority that recover. If leaks come out that his health fails, we won’t even know if they are true.

    Trump has set himself up for an October surprise.

    I doubt Biden would do this fundamentally different. He would wear masks and insist everyone do the same, he would also convey his health over a challenging disease, instead of understating the danger. But he would pretend to be doing fine, just as Trump would.

    If Trump was healthy all along, and this is a chickens___ way out of the debates, that’s hilarious in a way.

    Dustin (4237e0)

  6. One of the people I knew, who died, had been removed from the respirator and “was doing much better” — until he stroked out.

    Then again he didn’t get all these drugs. If I were running “Black Lives Matter” I’d be taking issue here with Trump’s “let them use better drugs” meme.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  7. Trump’s instinct that he needs to get out of the hospital, he’s probably right on the politics.

    I think the most unpopular part of the Trump administration is Trump himself.

    Time123 (b0628d)

  8. Guess we will find out in a week…I can’t trust Trump’s own reports because he is on a steroid high.

    I think the “steroid high” thing is overblown. Don’t know what those other drugs do, though.

    But what we will find out in a week is that Trump tested positive several days earlier, probably before the debate.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  9. If I were running “Black Lives Matter” I’d be taking issue here with Trump’s “let them use better drugs” meme.
    Kevin M (ab1c11) — 10/6/2020 @ 9:45 am

    If you were running Black Lives Matter you would be too busy with your extortion ring to care.

    Hoi Polloi (acf0e3)

  10. I think the most unpopular part of the Trump administration is Trump himself.

    Yes. Policy-wise his administration is no worse than Obama’s, and would be much better if he’d let the people he first recruited run their show (Mattis, Tillerson, etc). But in every instance it was Trump, his need to control, and his terrible judgement and personality that ruined all it touched.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  11. Anti-inflammatories, whether steroidal or non-steroidal, do make you feel better. That’s what they’re supposed to do. I wouldn’t call it a high, though. And the ones that suppress the immune response along with the inflammation … well, that’s gambling in Trump’s (alleged) case.

    nk (1d9030)

  12. ‘When people are forthcoming about some things and evasive about others it is obvious there is something bad underlying the evasiveness.’

    Reaganoptics.

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  13. Top U.S. military leaders, including chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, are quarantining after being exposed to the virus.

    Gen. Mark A. Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, along with several of the Pentagon’s most senior uniformed leaders, are quarantining after being exposed to the coronavirus, a Defense Department official said on Tuesday.

    The official said almost the entirety of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, including Gen. James C. McConville, the Army chief of staff, are quarantining after Adm. Charles Ray, the vice commandant of the Coast Guard, tested positive for coronavirus.
    ……
    General Milley and a number of senior Defense Department officials have also been getting tested frequently since last Sunday, when many of the Pentagon’s senior leadership attended a White House reception for “Gold Star” families of fallen troops. Both Mr. Trump and Melania Trump, the first lady, were at that event.
    ……

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  14. Top U.S. military leaders, including chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, are quarantining after being exposed to the virus.

    Ya know, if Biden managed to take our military leadership off line at all, he’d be accused of aiding our enemies.

    Of course Trump didn’t do this intentionally, but this is probably the most dangerous month for hotspots in the world, particularly Korea, in a long time. Maybe Trump is too volatile to test, but if you’re going to test us, now’s probably the time to do it. Can you imagine if a 9/11 happened today, how differently we would respond?

    We need a stable administration. We need an administration that can function.

    Dustin (4237e0)

  15. That’s what I was wondering, Patterico. This is Trump’s next scandal if testing data can pried out of the White House and made public. We the People deserve to know this.
    Whatever Dr. Upbeat says about Trump’s condition is irrelevant. The president is touting his Big Recovery so we can encourage him show up for the last two debates.

    Paul Montagu (77c694)

  16. I think that all this distrust in our Donald is a communist plot! He should ignore all you cucks and get out there on the campaign trail, without a damn mask, and carry his message of hope and courage to all his faithful. Or at least those that will let him get near.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  17. This is Trump’s next scandal if testing data can pried out of the White House and made public

    The most likely thing is that he knew earlier. His lateness to the debate, making a test there impossible, could have been intentional.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  18. KTLA
    @KTLA

    A Trump sign was erected on the hillside along the 405 Freeway near the Sepulveda Pass. It’s unclear who put it there Video camera: Sky5
    __ _

    Tracy
    @Spacy_Tracy_

    Putin has a long reach
    _

    harkin (f2bc98)

  19. “A conscience is like a boat or a car. If you feel you need one, rent it.”

    [ ] J.R. Ewing

    [ ] Donald J. Trump

    Guess.

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  20. Pre-debate testing should be done by third parties not connected to the campaigns.

    Rip Murdock (1b7516)

  21. @10

    I think the most unpopular part of the Trump administration is Trump himself.

    Yes. Policy-wise his administration is no worse than Obama’s,
    wut. It’s eons better than the Obama administration.

    and would be much better if he’d let the people he first recruited run their show (Mattis, Tillerson, etc).

    Except, he’s the President, not Mattis or Tillerson. I get the idea that they should’ve stayed and Trump should’ve leaned in on them. But, at the end of the day Trump *is* the President.

    But in every instance it was Trump, his need to control, and his terrible judgement and personality that ruined all it touched.

    Kevin M (ab1c11) — 10/6/2020 @ 9:51 am

    I think Tillerson was a mess. But, Mattis left because of policy differences. Mattis did the right thing in resigning, even though Trump seems to be doing better foreign police-wise.

    At the end of the day, neither Tillerson nor Matties were elected, so I find these lines of thought troubling as all it does is render the Office of the presidency impotent (as much as ya’ll would love for that to happen to Trump only).

    whembly (c30c83)

  22. Media Criticizes Trump For Downplaying Virus Threat By Not Dying

    Babylon Bee nails it again.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  23. Whembly, my point is that Trump would be more popular over the next few weeks if he stopped continually reminding everyone what he’s really like. If Biden wins it will be because he’s running against Trump. If he ran unopposed he’d lose.

    Regarding this point

    At the end of the day, neither Tillerson nor Matties were elected, so I find these lines of thought troubling as all it does is render the Office of the presidency impotent (as much as ya’ll would love for that to happen to Trump only).

    One of the reasons Trump is a bad leader is because he doesn’t get good subordinates and he doesn’t empower them.

    Time123 (b0628d)

  24. Pre-debate testing should be done by third parties not connected to the campaigns.

    Yeah, kind of like those “undecideds” who ask questions at town halls, and debate moderators who are neutral.

    beer ‘n pretzels (5c7509)

  25. whembly,

    Except for North Korea, the Kurds, Turkey, Africa and Europe in general, his foreign policy has been fairly good. Tillerson and Mattis were pretty much on the same page — and Tillerson was rather more pro-Putin than Trump ever was. But Trump was generally unwilling to listen to bad news, and the world is filled with bad news. Obama left Trump a mess, but Trump mostly ignored it, other than ISIS.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  26. > But what we will find out in a week is that Trump tested positive several days earlier, probably before the debate.

    This is of course unprovable, and when Trump last tested negative appears to be a closely held secret.

    But if he was sick enough to need hospitalization on Friday, he should have tested positive several days before that. So clearly one of three things is true:

    * he wasn’t sick enough to need hospitalization on Friday
    * he tested positive several days before Thursday and hid it
    * the claim that he’s tested every day is a lie and he wasn’t tested until Hicks tested positive

    I don’t think we have any way of knowing which of these it is.

    aphrael (4c4719)

  27. I’ve been reading Woodward’s book. It’s interesting what he says and implies about Putin and the election. Putin had written off Obama as worthless (to Putin) circa 2014, as Obama’s many assurances failed to materialize. Putin could not trust the man. The implication is that he extended this distrust to Hillary, and so wanted a more reliable leadership here. That he chose Trump is more the result of Hobson’s choice, he would have taken anyone not from the Obama-Clinton axis.

    Much of the turnover in the IC (e.g. Coats) was due to their clear understanding of Putin’s role in 2016, and Trump’s reflexive and extreme denial.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  28. I don’t think we have any way of knowing which of these it is.

    Oh, we’ll find out. Maybe not this week, but we will.

    It’s the same old question: “What did the president know, and when did he know it?”

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  29. Pre-debate testing should be done by third parties not connected to the campaigns.

    Yeah, kind of like those “undecideds” who ask questions at town halls, and debate moderators who are neutral.

    beer ‘n pretzels (5c7509) — 10/6/2020 @ 10:52 am

    Pick any lab you like, just so long as someone attests under penalty of perjury to the results. Amazing that we don’t have a WH that we can trust to provide this type of information but here we are.

    Time123 (b0628d)

  30. If you want me to get really upset about Putin interfering the the 2016 election, show me where he got the GOP to nominate Trump. Right now, I pretty much blame media hype, talk radio, Sessions, Gingrich and Priebus.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  31. Pick any lab you like

    Aren’t these done right there with kits?

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  32. @24-
    Pre-debate testing should be done by third parties not connected to the campaigns.

    Yeah, kind of like those “undecideds” who ask questions at town halls, and debate moderators who are neutral.
    Non-sequiturs.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  33. Amazing that we don’t have a WH that we can trust to provide this type of information but here we are.

    You’re free to trust the next WH, like you did the prior one. I’ll pass.

    beer ‘n pretzels (392e62)

  34. Putin had written off Obama as worthless (to Putin) circa 2014, as Obama’s many assurances failed to materialize. Putin could not trust the man.

    It’s kind of a problem when you invade and then annex part of a neighboring country.

    Dave (1bb933)

  35. And now for something completely different-

    Led Zeppelin Wins Long ‘Stairway to Heaven’ Copyright Case

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  36. Oh, we’ll find out. Maybe not this week, but we will.

    It’s the same old question: “What did the president know, and when did he know it?”

    Kevin M (ab1c11) — 10/6/2020 @ 10:59 am

    I bet the book is already being discussed with publishers.

    Giuliani threatened them. Cohen acted against them. Bolton didn’t exactly support them either. These folks didn’t ever spill the beans in the name of justice, or for our country, but they always end up doing it.

    Just wait until Ivanka and her siblings figure out the estate in a few years.

    Dustin (4237e0)

  37. You’re free to trust the next WH, like you did the prior one. I’ll pass.

    I am also free to distrust all of them as conniving, power-hungry thieves. Which has been and will continue to be my practice.

    Bored Lawyer (7b72ec)

  38. I am also free to distrust all of them as conniving, power-hungry thieves. Which has been and will continue to be my practice.

    Bored Lawyer (7b72ec) — 10/6/2020 @ 11:24 am

    Smart. This is why Project Lincoln has no influence over me. They fawn lovingly over some politicians.

    Dustin (4237e0)

  39. Speaking of the Lincoln Project, they finally have a new ad out, and it’s grim stuff:

    Hospital

    Dave (1bb933)

  40. Powell Warns of Prolonged Economic Pain Without Help

    Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell delivered a message to his fellow policymakers on Tuesday: Faced with a once-in-a-century pandemic that has inflicted economic pain on millions of households, go big.

    “Too little support would lead to a weak recovery, creating unnecessary hardship for households and businesses,” Mr. Powell said in remarks before the National Association for Business Economics.

    “Over time, household insolvencies and business bankruptcies would rise, harming the productive capacity of the economy, and holding back wage growth,” he said. “By contrast, the risks of overdoing it seem, for now, to be smaller.”
    ……
    “Taken together, fiscal and monetary policy actions have so far supported a strong but incomplete recovery in demand,” Mr. Powell said. Those actions, he said, have “muted the normal recessionary dynamics that occur in a downturn,” like a hit to spending that causes further layoffs.
    ……
    “A long period of unnecessarily slow progress could continue to exacerbate existing disparities in our economy,” he said. “That would be tragic, especially in light of our country’s progress on these issues in the years leading up to the pandemic.”
    ……
    ……While the government is spending far more money than it is taking in this year, he said Tuesday that “this is not the time to give priority to those concerns.”
    ……
    “This will be the work of all of government,” he said. “The recovery will be stronger and move faster if monetary policy and fiscal policy continue to work side by side to provide support to the economy until it is clearly out of the woods.”
    ……
    “We should continue do what we can to manage downside risks to the outlook,” Mr. Powell said, adding that doing so requires “following medical experts’ guidance, including using masks and social-distancing measures.”

    One of his colleagues was even blunter — and more worried.

    “Because of the United States’ inability to control the virus, we’ve experienced approximately 21 percent of the world’s deaths, despite housing only about 4 percent of the world’s population,” Patrick Harker, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, said in a separate speech on Tuesday.
    …….

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  41. M.Trublood
    @Trublood16
    ·
    “I have had overwhelming support from police my whole career up until this year.” – @JoeBiden

    __ _

    Story checks out.
    _

    harkin (7fb4c9)

  42. Good ad, Dave. The one where the Russian music plays as his helicopter lands is also good. They hold no punches back against Republicans. I wish they had not taken on the name Lincoln to imply they are the true Republicans, because on some level I see myself as a true Republican that the nuts have stolen my party from. These guys are aggressive against Team R keeping the Senate. They are more likely to praise AOC than Mitch Daniels.

    Dustin (4237e0)

  43. Even the president’s doctor, no paragon of forthrightness, warned that Trump is “not out of the woods”

    He might very well need another dose of neutralizing Regerneron antibodies. I don;t know if they are even considering the possibility.

    He might just have been reset to the day after initial infection. Of course, his body has had a chance to generate some antibodies of his own, so he’s at least a little bit better off in that respect.

    Sammy Finkelman (4eddd7)

  44. At least 1 of Trump’s military aides tasked with carrying the nuclear ‘football’ reportedly has coronavirus

    At least one of the president’s five military aides tested positive for COVID-19 over the weekend, after Trump himself tested positive, CNN first reported and Bloomberg confirmed. The aides, each representing one branch of the U.S. military, stay close to Trump at all times, and carry his emergency briefcase known as the “nuclear football.”

    Suckers and losers are a dime a dozen, right?

    Dave (1bb933)

  45. Interesting…
    https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/10/02/science.abf0521

    What this letter really implies is that (non N95) masks are useless to stop the covid19 transmission because the transmission (areosolized) is occurring at particle sizes that masks don’t stop on the way in OR out.

    There’s studies out there that even N95 masks are only 10-30% effective.

    whembly (c30c83)

  46. Trump’s war on the military.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  47. The refusal to provide info suggests Trump either wasn’t being tested regularly at all, or had a positive test earlier than known

    He was probably being tested irregularly, (not on any schedule) but more than once a week. Could be an average of three times a week. Not every day.

    It is reported that, after Hope Hicks had a positive test, he had a test that was positive (probably the Abbott Laboratories rapid test that everybody in the White House who goes in to to see him or Mike Pence uses) It may have a 2% false positive rate and it doesn’t pick up incipient, but probably non contagious, infections.

    He didn’t change his itinerary until it was confirmed by another test (probably a PCR test.)

    He actually probably got infected by someone who was not within six feet of him who would not have been tested. Or perhaps by a group of people who had several people already infected.

    Sammy Finkelman (4eddd7)

  48. These guys are aggressive against Team R keeping the Senate.

    They oppose the senators who whitewashed Trump’s corruption when it was their constitutional duty to take corrective action.

    They were the country’s last line of defense, and (with one exception) they defected to other side.

    IMO, any Republican who won’t denounce Trump is deserves early retirement.

    Dave (1bb933)


  49. Jon Levine
    @LevineJonathan
    Lyon Gardiner Tyler — grandson of the 10th president of the United States John Tyler — has died

    He was 95
    __ _

    His grandfather was born in 1790……..

    Lyon’s brother is still living apparently.
    _

    harkin (7fb4c9)

  50. They oppose the senators who whitewashed Trump’s corruption when it was their constitutional duty to take corrective action.

    They were the country’s last line of defense, and (with one exception) they defected to other side.

    IMO, any Republican who won’t denounce Trump is deserves early retirement.

    Dave (1bb933) — 10/6/2020 @ 11:49 am

    I get it.

    But Team D is 100% the same as Team R on forgiving corruption in their ranks, so this is a weird priority for the true republicans. If, instead, they were aggressive about those who have divided our people, Trump chief among them, but hardly just the Team D list of enemies, I would support them.

    Of course they are just democrats using Lincoln’s name.

    Dustin (4237e0)

  51. Oh:
    https://www.foxnews.com/politics/dni-brennan-notes-cia-memo-clinton

    Anyone continuing to believe that the Trump campaign actually conspired with Russia will not forevermore be discredited.

    There’s actual documented evidence that the Obama-era officials abused their office for partisan gains.

    whembly (c30c83)

  52. *now forevermore….

    (ugh, why can’t wordpress include an edit function?)

    whembly (c30c83)

  53. @56

    Trump calls for stimulus negotiations to stop until after Election Day

    Rip Murdock (1b7516) — 10/6/2020 @ 12:24 pm

    But he gets zero credit for not willing to spend more money… amirite?

    whembly (c30c83)

  54. Kevin @6:

    One of the people I knew, who died, had been removed from the respirator and “was doing much better” — until he stroked out.

    One of the effects of the infection is to increase the propemsity of the blood to clot. This effect is so strong that early in the epidemic, many people died who first came to medical attention ecause of aheart attack or stroke, although they may have felt bad for some time.

    There is a test for that clotting effect now.

    Trump, of course never got to the point of a severe infection although it was maybe starting to get there

    8. Kevin M (ab1c11) — 10/6/2020 @ 9:48 am

    But what we will find out in a week is that Trump tested positive several days earlier, probably before the debate.

    The Abbott Laboratories test is not that sensitive. And in fact there are people arguing that the PCR test is way too sensitive – it finds people who never become contagious and people well before they become contagious. While they say a rapid test detects people who are contagious and that’s what you need to detect. Otherwise you’ll be trying to chase down too many people.

    Sammy Finkelman (4eddd7)

  55. @57-
    Trump didn’t say no to stimulus funding, only that he won’t negotiate until after the election.

    I’m sure the 50,000 being laid off in the airline industry alone appreciate it.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  56. But he gets zero credit for not willing to spend more money… amirite?

    “I take no responsibility at all.” — DJT

    Radegunda (e1ea47)

  57. I am also free to distrust all of them as conniving, power-hungry thieves.

    This is the heart of my disinterest in “ethics scandals” in general. They are a pack of lying, cheating and back-stabbing scoundrels. There are exceptions, but they are rare and mostly in degree.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  58. @59

    @57-
    Trump didn’t say no to stimulus funding, only that he won’t negotiate until after the election.

    I’m sure the 50,000 being laid off in the airline industry alone appreciate it.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 10/6/2020 @ 12:53 pm

    @60

    But he gets zero credit for not willing to spend more money… amirite?

    “I take no responsibility at all.” — DJT

    Radegunda (e1ea47) — 10/6/2020 @ 12:53 pm

    Okay… so, what’s the likelihood that had he told GOP Senate to pass that 2.6trillion dollar package, that ya’ll complain that it’s too much and gave it to Democrats inane non-covid related wishlist?

    whembly (c30c83)

  59. BTW, this is also why impeachment failed (and why it was designed to fail). All it was there for was to rally Democrats for 2020, while the press (birm) made the GOP look evil.

    These were charges that largely did not resonate and did not produce the kind of political collapse required for GOP Senators to be willing to stand up to the Trumpiots. Pelosi had better charges, including gross incompetence, dereliction of duty, intemperate behavior and bringing the United States into disrepute. Those might have resonated, but Pelosi didn’t want Trump gone; Pence might have been harder to beat.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  60. (ugh, why can’t wordpress include an edit function?)

    I believe there are several, but I don’t know if they are any good. Also, there is some chance of dishonest editing.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  61. Okay… so, what’s the likelihood that had he told GOP Senate to pass that 2.6trillion dollar package, that ya’ll complain that it’s too much and gave it to Democrats inane non-covid related wishlist?

    What’s the likelihood that Trump would ever take responsibility for anything that goes wrong, or decline to take credit for anything that goes right while he holds the presidency?

    Radegunda (e1ea47)

  62. BTW, this is also why impeachment failed (and why it was designed to fail). All it was there for was to rally Democrats for 2020, while the press (birm) made the GOP look evil.

    These were charges that largely did not resonate and did not produce the kind of political collapse required for GOP Senators to be willing to stand up to the Trumpiots. Pelosi had better charges, including gross incompetence, dereliction of duty, intemperate behavior and bringing the United States into disrepute. Those might have resonated, but Pelosi didn’t want Trump gone; Pence might have been harder to beat.

    Kevin M (ab1c11) — 10/6/2020 @ 1:04 pm

    If this is true, it’s impressive how smart they were, because I agree this is how things would have played out. If they impeached Trump, and it were Pence vs… Bernie perhaps in that case, it would be a landslide crushing loss for Team D. Pelosi does benefit from Trump being on the ballot, and conservatives do not.

    Dustin (4237e0)

  63. The WHO just updated their numbers downward again…

    With just over 1 million with/from COVID-19 deaths registered worldwide, that drops WHO’s COVID-19 infection fatality rate (IFR) to just 0.13%, which is significantly lower than WHO literature assessed 2 months ago.

    In Aug, the WHO estimated 0.5-1.0%. They had original IFR at 0.5-1.5%.

    That’s a major downward update to the numbers.

    The CDC update theirs recently too…

    Their covid19 IFR estimates(again, the infection fatality rate, the death rate for all infections) from:
    https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html

    0-19 years: 0.00003 (0.003%)
    20-49 years: 0.0002 (0.02%)
    50-69 years: 0.005 (0.5%)
    70+ years: 0.054 (5.4%).

    As you can see, the under 50 estimates are almost exactly the same for the flu and the ro (again, we know this includes many WITH rather than FROM ro deaths because of our counting rules). Thus the flu is likely as, if not more dangerous for people under 50.

    Of course the reverse is true over 50, and certainly over 60.

    Theres a large academic debate about the overall context of this COVID19 death counts, as there is hardly any delineation between death caused by vs having COVID19. (we don’t count the flu deaths in this manner, this isn’t nefarious plots by the states/Trump/WHO/CDC, it’s hard to count these things because while the disease are similar in a lot of ways, it’s still very much a different disease with very different lethalities).

    whembly (c30c83)

  64. Oh:
    https://www.foxnews.com/politics/dni-brennan-notes-cia-memo-clinton

    Anyone continuing to believe that the Trump campaign actually conspired with Russia will not forevermore be discredited.

    There’s actual documented evidence that the Obama-era officials abused their office for partisan gains.

    whembly (c30c83) — 10/6/2020 @ 12:22 pm

    The information at the attached link doesn’t prove what you assert. If there were additional evidence it might be part of the picture, but by itself this isn’t proof. Separately we have evidence that Russia *did* criminally interfere. We also have evidence from the Flynn trial that the people investigating Trump believed he was guilty.

    Time123 (36651d)

  65. @66

    Okay… so, what’s the likelihood that had he told GOP Senate to pass that 2.6trillion dollar package, that ya’ll complain that it’s too much and gave it to Democrats inane non-covid related wishlist?

    What’s the likelihood that Trump would ever take responsibility for anything that goes wrong, or decline to take credit for anything that goes right while he holds the presidency?

    Radegunda (e1ea47) — 10/6/2020 @ 1:10 pm

    Can you answer my question?

    In good faith, I’ll answer yours:
    Trump, like any politician, will reluctantly or almost never take responsibilty for things go bad and pound that “credit drum” for things that went right.

    Not excusing that behavior, but I struggle to find any President that fit your description.

    whembly (c30c83)

  66. IMO, any Republican who won’t denounce Trump is deserves early retirement.

    And yet, any Republican who is up for election will lose the election if they denounce Trump. It would be like asking Democrats to denounce AOC.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  67. The WHO just updated their numbers downward again…

    Since they accept China’s claim of 5,000 dead (1 in 250,000), who the F cares what numbers they claim?

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  68. What’s the likelihood that Trump would ever take responsibility for anything that goes wrong, or decline to take credit for anything that goes right while he holds the presidency?

    What makes you think he can tell which is which?

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  69. If this is true, it’s impressive how smart they were

    Or how desperate … Pelosi was under a LOT of pressure to let impeachment happen. It was probably the easiest way forward for her, the alternatives being a raft of hard Left policy bills that would play badly in 2020. There was (and still is) some chance of her being replaced.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  70. RIP – Eddie Van Halen

    This hits close to home.

    Don’t smoke.
    _

    harkin (7fb4c9)

  71. Dear President Trump:

    It would be nice if you did not tweet while the market is still open.

    Thanks bigly,
    The Middle Class

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  72. @40. Memo to the Buckley’d; just goes to Joe’ya…

    ‘No miracle is coming.’

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  73. > Poll: 74 percent of voters want Senate to take on COVID-19 relief before SCOTUS nominee

    seems like a good way to lose their majority. or maybe they’ve already internalized that they’re going to lose their majority and are trying to accomplish everything they can for their team before they do.

    aphrael (4c4719)

  74. > It would be like asking Democrats to denounce AOC.

    hardly. AOC looms much larger in the hearts and minds of conservatives than she does in the hearts and minds of liberals.

    aphrael (4c4719)

  75. @66
    Okay… so, what’s the likelihood that had he told GOP Senate to pass that 2.6trillion dollar package, that ya’ll complain that it’s too much and gave it to Democrats inane non-covid related wishlist?
    What’s the likelihood that Trump would ever take responsibility for anything that goes wrong, or decline to take credit for anything that goes right while he holds the presidency?

    Radegunda (e1ea47) — 10/6/2020 @ 1:10 pm

    Can you answer my question?

    In good faith, I’ll answer yours:
    Trump, like any politician, will reluctantly or almost never take responsibilty for things go bad and pound that “credit drum” for things that went right.

    Not excusing that behavior, but I struggle to find any President that fit your description.

    whembly (c30c83) — 10/6/2020 @ 1:16 pm

    Bush took responsibility for Katrina.
    Here’s a list of stuff Obama took responsibility for.

    Time123 (b0628d)

  76. Plagiarist JoeyBee addresses record crowd of 6,000 at Gettysburg.

    All dead; none five times deferred, eh, Joe.

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  77. What Is Joe Biden Hiding?

    Multiple brain surgery scars for starts.

    LBJ showed us his gallbladder scars; we took it. Show us where your cranium was pried open for repair, Joe. We can take it.

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  78. AOC looms much larger in the hearts and minds of conservatives than she does in the hearts and minds of liberals.

    And Trump looms much larger in the hearts and minds of liberals than he does in the hearts and minds of conservatives.

    But more to the point, no Democrat will gain a GOP vote by denouncing AOC, but may lose significant Democrat votes. And Republicans denouncing Trump will gain no Democrat votes, but lose a noticibole portion of their base.

    There is no profit in it.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  79. Here’s a list of stuff Obama took responsibility for.

    Yeah, well “My bad” isn’t really taking responsibility.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  80. “I’ll be a president that looks to the future, not clings to the past.”- Joe Biden

    Which is why he said this at an old battlefield in Gettysburg, Pennsylvania not a launch pad at Cape Canaveral, Florida.

    Idiot.

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  81. RIP, Eddie Van Halen, a better-than-average guitarist of my generation. Throat cancer.

    Paul Montagu (77c694)

  82. @86. A loss. Stellar guitarist.

    Helen Reddy, Mac Davis, now Eddie Van Halen.

    The ’70s – the dead decade- dyin’ before your eyes.

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  83. @69 (heh, nice!)

    Oh:
    https://www.foxnews.com/politics/dni-brennan-notes-cia-memo-clinton

    Anyone continuing to believe that the Trump campaign actually conspired with Russia will not forevermore be discredited.

    There’s actual documented evidence that the Obama-era officials abused their office for partisan gains.

    whembly (c30c83) — 10/6/2020 @ 12:22 pm

    The information at the attached link doesn’t prove what you assert.

    Okay, now I’m going to accuse you of being willfully disingenuous.

    What more do you need? We’ve been getting all this information in drip, drip, drip fashion and collectively its absolutely damning. I understand you’d like things in a neat bow, but you have to realize that there are multiple facet of this ordeal.

    This was a literally handwritten note by John Brennen summarized:
    “We’re getting additional insight into Russian activites from [REDACTED],” Brennan’s handwritten notes state. “Cite alleged approval by Hillary Clinton–on 26 July–of a proposal from one of her foreign policy advisers to villify [sic] Donald Trump by stirring up a scandal claiming interference by the Russian security services.

    In other words, Brennan ,and the US intelligence community for that matter, knew months prior to the 2016 election that the collusion smear was the result of a campaign operation hatched by the campaign of Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton.

    If there were additional evidence it might be part of the picture, but by itself this isn’t proof.

    Holy crap. Let me repeat, as you CANNOT spin this:
    Brennen, as CIA Director, wrote a memorialized contemporary meeting notes prior to the 2016 election, that HE WROTE stating that there was a HRC proposal “to villify” Trump by stirring up a scandal claiming interference by the Russian security services.

    HE.WROTE.THAT.DOWN.AS.A.CONTEMPORARY.MEMO.

    The other concern, driven by this, was that the CIA actually sent the FBI this information to determine *IF* Russia knew about this, and *IF* they took advantaged of this by fostering disinformation. (So much was redacted so we don’t know what the FBI did with this information)

    Separately we have evidence that Russia *did* criminally interfere.

    We have allegations. We have Intelligence Assessments that gives how likely that happens…as, our enemies has ALWAYS tried to interfere. But, when the Special Counsel Office brought the charges to court against a Russian company (NOT the Russian government… the Judge wouldn’t allow that as the charges didn’t allude that), they didn’t expect the “defense” to show up. (which shows that the SCO was using the court as a propaganda than a good faith prosecution).

    We also have evidence from the Flynn trial that the people investigating Trump believed he was guilty.

    Time123 (36651d) — 10/6/2020 @ 1:15 pm

    Note the word you used… they “believed” he was guilty.

    That’s not the same thing that he was affirmatively guilty.

    whembly (c30c83)

  84. @80

    Bush took responsibility for Katrina.
    Here’s a list of stuff Obama took responsibility for.

    Time123 (b0628d) — 10/6/2020 @ 1:37 pm

    I’ll grant you Bush. (reminds me why I liked the dude).

    The Obama link is paywalled. Got another source? Most of the time, Obama caveated his statement (ie, blamed Bush for the economy, etc…).

    whembly (c30c83)

  85. @87-
    And three Dodger greats: Jay Johnstone, Ron Perranoski, and Sweet Lou Johnson.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  86. So, Trump would rather walk away than cut a deal with the other party to help Americans and state/county governments in financial straits. Given his antics since the debate, Donald is pleasing his hardcore base and practically asking everyone else to vote for the other guy. Huh.

    Paul Montagu (cbbfc4)

  87. And Bob Gibson. Probably one of the ten best pitchers of the 20th century.

    The Ron Cey ‘when I introduced myself to Bob Gibson’ story is an all-timer.
    _

    harkin (7fb4c9)

  88. @91

    So, Trump would rather walk away than cut a deal with the other party to help Americans and state/county governments in financial straits. Given his antics since the debate, Donald is pleasing his hardcore base and practically asking everyone else to vote for the other guy. Huh.

    Paul Montagu (cbbfc4) — 10/6/2020 @ 2:30 pm

    So…no blame at all for Nancy Pelosi/Democrats?

    Blame them for inserting non-covid19 crap in the bill.

    whembly (c30c83)

  89. 88.

    Brennen, as CIA Director, wrote a memorialized contemporary meeting notes prior to the 2016 election, that HE WROTE stating that there was a HRC proposal “to villify” Trump by stirring up a scandal claiming interference by the Russian security services.

    But that note also implies that he thought (or he said) that what he was getting was true.

    “We’re getting additional insight into Russian activites from [REDACTED]

    Truth doesn’t go well with the word “vilify” but the word “insight” goes even less well with anything not accurate.

    But they might be two separate comments.

    You can’t make anything out of it.

    Sammy Finkelman (4eddd7)

  90. Maybe Brennan meant that Hillary didn’t care whether it was true or not. But somebody else (Steele?) supplied the CIA with information, which he believed had value.

    Sammy Finkelman (4eddd7)

  91. Most of the time, Obama caveated his statement (ie, blamed Bush for the economy, etc…).

    whembly (c30c83) — 10/6/2020 @ 2:06 pm

    Pretty fair point.

    Dustin (4237e0)

  92. I agree: Trump is not pro-life. No ad hominems, please.

    Paul Montagu (e7d63b)

  93. Stocks drop after Trump calls off talks on economic stimulus
    …….
    The S&P 500 index slid 1.4% after having been up 0.7% prior to the president’s announcement, which he made on Twitter about an hour before the close of trading. The late-afternoon pullback erased most of the benchmark index’s gains from a market rally a day earlier.
    ……..
    Optimism that Democrats and Republicans would reach a deal on more stimulus ahead of the Nov. 3 elections had helped lift the stock market recently. Now, investors face the prospect that more aid may not come until next year, after the new Congress is seated, said Willie Delwiche, investment strategist at Baird.

    “This isn’t just pushing it off until after the election, this realistically is pushing it off until spring,” Delwiche said. “I don’t think this is just a one-day financial markets reaction. This really goes to the health of the recovery.”

    The S&P 500 fell 47.66 points to 3,360.97. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 375.88 points, or 1.3%, to 27,772.76. It had been up by more than 200 points. The Nasdaq composite lost 177.88 points, or 1.6%, to 11,154.60. The tech-heavy index had been on pace for a 0.5% gain before Trump cut off the stimulus talks.
    ……..
    Without more stimulus, analysts expect that growth will slow significantly in the final three months of the year. Last month, Goldman Sachs slashed its forecast for growth in the fourth quarter to just 3% at an annual rate, down from a previous forecast of 6%, because they no longer expected an aid package to be approved. That would leave the U.S. economy 2.5% smaller at the end of 2020 than a year earlier, even after a large rebound in the July-September quarter.

    “You’re going to see quite a significant drag on growth,” said Gregory Daco, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, a consulting firm. It “would really risk a double-dip recession.”
    ……….

    Rip Murdock (1b7516)

  94. RIP, Eddie Van Halen, a better-than-average guitarist of my generation. Throat cancer.

    But not from his heavy smoking. He always said it was that steel guitar pick he held in his mouth.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  95. I agree: Trump is not pro-life. No ad hominems, please.

    LOL – The entire article is an ad hominem. Yeah, and French is not pro-conservative. He wouldn’t be published in Time if he were.

    beer ‘n pretzels (042d67)

  96. because the last stimulus worked out so great, for robert deniro, for media matters, for axios, but for the average man and woman, it’s like licking pelosi’s empty ice cream containers,

    bolivar de gris (7404b5)

  97. The entire article is an ad hominem…

    Did French criticize Trump because Trump? Or were there good reasons?

    Paul Montagu (77c694)

  98. Who ever believed Trump was pro-life? Because of his women? That’s pro-lite. P-r-o – l-i-t-e.

    nk (1d9030)

  99. Obama caveated his statement

    No, basically he said “I take responsibility” but mostly in the sense of “My bad.”

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  100. Q: Were you ever a donor to Planned Parenthood?
    TRUMP:I don’t know–but it’s possible. I give to so many organizations over the years. Hundreds of millions of dollars, so I really don’t know.

    I wouldn’t go so far as to call Trump pro-choice. He’s not pro-life though. He’s just a con man. Why would we sit here and pretend to debate what this man believes about principles and philosophies and human rights? He doesn’t care about that. He wants his diet coke and ice cream cold, his steak well done with ketchup.

    Dustin (4237e0)

  101. Well, I could claim that Reagan was never really pro-life, having signed the second state law permitting some abortions (Oregon’s governor was first). He also never attended any of the annual DC marches to protest Roe.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  102. Then again, trying to use some past action to predict current beliefs is kind of silly. We all change our minds as we learn. Well, most of us.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  103. I believe Trump knew he was positive at the debate and was intentionally trying to infect Biden by interrupting and yelling at him.

    DRJ (aede82)

  104. In that vein, it’s useful to look at the questions the doctor didn’t answer yesterday, citing HIPAA regulations

    Can we all agree that whoever came up with “Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act” deserves a front row seat at Trump’s next super spreader event? Would it have killed them to anticipate the acronym and come up with anything more intuitive than HIPAA? And the solution, Health Insurance Portability and Privacy Act was so simple and obvious. Twenty-five years later and I still have to pause to be sure I’m spelling the acronym right. It’s the kind of bureaucratic mosquito of social irritation that must make Putin smile.

    lurker (d8c5bc)

  105. “NBC News featured a pair of “undecided” voters during a network town hall earlier this week who had previously declared their support for Democratic nominee Joe Biden on the network’s sister channel, MSNBC.

    Lawyer Peter Gonzalez and marketing executive Ismael Llano posed questions to Biden during a town hall on Monday, when he appeared before what the network described as an “audience of undecided Florida voters.”

    Both Gonzalez and Llano, however, were featured in an MSNBC segment in August to explain why they support Biden.“

    NBC News’ ‘Undecided’ Voters Previously Featured as Biden Supporters on MSNBC

    https://freebeacon.com/media/undecided-voters-at-nbc-town-hall-previously-told-network-they-were-voting-biden/
    __ _

    harkin (7fb4c9)

  106. > because the last stimulus worked out so great, for robert deniro, for media matters, for axios, but for the average man and woman, it’s like licking pelosi’s empty ice cream containers,

    the unemployment benefits, the suspension of student loan repayments, and the eviction moratorium helped millions of people who desperately needed the help. the business loans that required that people be kept on payroll kept hundreds of thousands of people employed who would otherwise have been laid off.

    aphrael (4c4719)

  107. Did Biden pay them SAG (or Actors Equity) scale, like Trump did his “supporters” at the escalator?

    nk (1d9030)

  108. I believe Trump knew he was positive at the debate and was intentionally trying to infect Biden by interrupting and yelling at him.

    DRJ (aede82) — 10/6/2020 @ 3:55 pm

    It’s too bad this man who can fight so ruthlessly against a political opponent like Ted Cruz or Joe Biden that he could actually try to harm them, and reliably strikes below the belt at their family, can’t just fight for our country or be a man and own up to his conduct.

    His behavior lately is consistent with knowing he was sick at the debate.

    Dustin (4237e0)

  109. DRJ, I think that’s consistent with the data but i’d prefer not to believe it without proof — there are other explanations which are consistent with the data which don’t make the assumptions about Trump’s character which that would require.

    I cannot express how hard it is to give him the benefit of the doubt, though, but I think it’s important that we do so.

    aphrael (4c4719)

  110. which don’t make the assumptions about Trump’s character which that would require.

    Well, the guy’s character is such that when his fans cheer, he imagines killing people on 5th avenue because they are so loyal they wouldn’t do a thing. It isn’t more than a couple steps from ‘when you’re a star’ women can’t stop you from touching them wherever and whenever you want.

    Trump’s reaction to Mitt Romney in quarantine was joy.

    His foreign policy mentor is Putin.

    And I bet his close detail, the guy with the nuclear football, the guy vacuuming the carpet in the oval office, the helicopter pilot, I bet they wouldn’t put harming Biden past Trump.

    Dustin (4237e0)

  111. I will give Trump credit for never stooping to wear a tan suit.

    Dustin (4237e0)

  112. 90/92. Yeah, all these 70s greats gone. The lovely Diana Rigg [okay Avengers aside she was still a hottie into GOT and a loss at any age] Lyle Waggoner, Kevin Dobson, Regis Philbin, Carl Reiner… Linda ‘High Chaparral’ Cristal… All in top form when Plagiarist JoeyBee was in his prime busy stealing other people’s work product. Joe likes to remind you he was pals w/Teddy Kennedy, Paul Simon, Mike Mansfield, Arlen Specter, Howell Heflin, etc., too… all dead.

    Keep that in mind when you think about voting for a fella who will be 78 next month, exhibits the old man befuddle-shuffle, gave a speech today at a place of death when 6,000 dead are buried and has had multiple brain surgeries.

    The Harris – Pence debate may be more significant than you realize.

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  113. To be clear: it wouldn’t surprise me. But I don’t want to believe it without direct evidence rather than inference from his otherwise incredibly bad behavior.

    aphrael (4c4719)

  114. #110 —

    HIPAA is a reasonable law that protects privacy. It means Google can’t grab it and sell it.

    Trump could authorize the release of his health info. Blame Trump for keeping it secret, not HIPAA

    Appalled (1a17de)

  115. 121. I have no problem with HIPAA, just the acronym.

    lurker (d8c5bc)

  116. The Harris – Pence debate may be more significant than you realize.

    DCSCA (797bc0) — 10/6/2020 @ 4:32 pm

    Definitely. I think Pence will trounce her, and he’s already at it, making himself seem like a window into normalcy. He will probably make clear that Harris is the next president if people vote Biden, and lead her into traps.

    If so, it will only remind me of how tactically stupid Trump was to just yell at Biden 100% of the night instead of letting the gaffe machine talk. Trump is indeed an idiot.

    Dustin (4237e0)

  117. @123. Reagan made mistakes in his debate w/Mondale too. He recovered in the next debate. If the second debate goes on- Trump will likely let Biden implode in the Town all format, though Steve Scully is a CSPAN nebbish, until he can’t hold back any longer.

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  118. If the second debate goes on- Trump will likely let Biden implode in the Town all format

    You’re too confident. I’m sure he’s getting this advice.

    But if you pay careful attention, Biden also got that advice. When Trump was about to say some kind of weasel condemnation of racists, Biden ordered him to do it an extra time. That “do it” goaded Trump effectively into the worst gaffe perhaps in any debate in our election history.

    Biden is certainly up to the task of imploding in an amazing turnaround. Trump’s crude attempt to make this happen last time was pathetic and stupid. It was the kind of performance I would expect from a man 400 million in debt after 15 years of failing at being rich.

    Trump treating ‘regular Americans’ with the disrespect he showed the moderator and his opponent will seal the deal. That’s what I’m expecting.

    Dustin (4237e0)

  119. When Trump was about to say some kind of weasel condemnation of racists, Biden ordered him to do it an extra time. That “do it” goaded Trump effectively into the worst gaffe perhaps in any debate in our election history.

    “Did you order the Code Red?!”

    “YOU’RE GOD DAMN RIGHT I DID!!!”

    lurker (d8c5bc)

  120. @125. Quite confident. Biden spent today shoveling fertilizer between multiple quote from Lincoln.

    It was like watching him spackle Joey Grout between vintage bathroom tiles.

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  121. Here’s a quick synopsis of the Conley briefing on Trump’s health. He’s the one on the left, just so there’s no confusion.

    Paul Montagu (77c694)

  122. I think the “steroid high” thing is overblown.
    Kevin M (ab1c11) — 10/6/2020 @ 9:48 am

    and

    Anti-inflammatories, whether steroidal or non-steroidal, do make you feel better. That’s what they’re supposed to do. I wouldn’t call it a high, though.
    nk (1d9030) — 10/6/2020 @ 9:56 am

    Except for some mild pain relief I wouldn’t know when I’ve taken an NSAI. But steroids? The first time I was prescribed prednisone (which IIRC Kevin said he takes frequently?) all I can say is, wow. Other than intravenous morphine, no substance has ever made me so euphoric. Obviously brain chemistries differ so YMMD, but my experience wasn’t unique. And FWIW, dexamethasone is many times more potent than prednisone.

    lurker (d8c5bc)

  123. I believe Trump knew he was positive at the debate and was intentionally trying to infect Biden by interrupting and yelling at him.

    Well, maybe. And maybe a reporter was positive and wanted to infect Trump.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  124. Twenty-five years later and I still have to pause to be sure I’m spelling the acronym right.

    Indeed. And you have to spell it for everyone, too. And like most privacy rules, it’s abused to the extreme for bureaucratic obfuscation and foot-dragging.

    I have stories, mostly about being dunned for a bill (that I’d paid), but them refusing to tell me what the bill was for, when it was incurred, etc, making it hard to find the corresponding info.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  125. which IIRC Kevin said he takes frequently?)

    1-3 courses a year.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  126. More like 3 this year, as I do NOT want my asthma to get out of control.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  127. Wembly, By July 26 the DNC new they’d been hacked, Crowdstrike had already concluded it was Russia, the first batch of emails had been released by Wikileaks, and there was public discussion about Trump’s ties with Russia. This isn’t proof that Hillary hatched this as a plot against Trump. Nor is it proof that they focused the investigation on Trump for political reasons. It is evidence that she was trying to drag him into it. Although, if Brennan were part of a plot it’s odd that he’d create this memo….

    You’re correct that this is what the investigators believed and that they could have been wrong. But the impression by an investigator that was there, believed they were wrong, and was positively inclined towards president Trump was that they were motivated by an incorrect belief, but personal or political animus.

    Final point, Yes, they’re allegations. But they’re supported by detailed evidence that were made public. (See Vol 1 of the Meuler Report). They were presented in a way that was open to challenge, and AG Barr withdrew those charges. Probably because they could be used to learn out CI process. If you stipulate that the allegations are true, how would you want them made public and what would you accept as proof that the Russians hacked the DNC?

    Time123 (66d88c)


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