Patterico's Pontifications

5/27/2020

Fauci: Hydroxychloroquine Not Effective Treatment for Covid-19

Filed under: General — Dana @ 5:26 pm



[guest post by Dana]

The Wall Street Journal reports that Dr. Anthony Fauci has issued a warning about using hydroxychloroquine to treat Covid-19:

Anthony Fauci, the government’s top infectious-disease expert, said hydroxychloroquine isn’t an effective treatment for Covid-19 and urged caution as Republicans and Democrats plan their conventions for later this summer.

Dr. Fauci’s comments Wednesday about hydroxychloroquine echo the findings of recent studies and countered President Trump’s frequent efforts to tout the antimalarial drug as a promising treatment for Covid-19, the disease caused by the new coronavirus.

“I’m not so sure it should be banned, but clearly the scientific data is really quite evident now about the lack of efficacy for it,” Dr. Fauci said during a CNN interview, when asked whether the U.S. should ban the drug for treating Covid-19, as France recently did.

[Ed. Well, Fauci had a good run…]

Fauci also said that patients with pre-existing heart conditions or other health issues might experience “adverse effects” from using the drug to treat Covid-19.

Here are the numbers:

In the absence of approved treatments, doctors and hospitals began using hydroxychloroquine and a similar drug, chloroquine, in Covid-19 patients earlier this year, after several small studies outside the U.S. provided signs the drugs may help treat symptoms. In recent weeks, several observational studies have shown they may not provide benefit to patients and could even be harmful.

On Friday, researchers analyzing data of about 96,000 hospitalized patients reported that the drugs didn’t help patients fight Covid-19, while raising the risk for heart problems and death. That study, funded by Brigham and Women’s Hospital in Boston, found that between 16.4% and 23.8% of the approximate 15,000 patients treated with the antimalarials—either alone or in combination with an antibiotic—died, depending on the regimen. In comparison, a little more than 9% of hospitalized patients who didn’t get an antimalarial died.

Fauci also cautioned the two major political parties about holding in-person conventions later this summer:

Dr. Fauci said officials should “reserve judgment” on proceeding until they have a better handle on whether numbers of new cases and hospitalizations are significantly decreasing.

Dr. Fauci said he would have “significant reservations” about proceeding with the conventions if cases aren’t trending down in the states.

He also said a second wave of infections later this year can be prevented if states follow government guidelines aimed at mitigating the spread of the virus. “We don’t have to accept that as an inevitability,” he said, adding later, “It could happen, but it’s not inevitable.”

Fauci predicted that a vaccine could be ready by the end of the year:

He expressed confidence that a vaccine could be deployed by the end of this year, but cautioned that the vaccine development process could face “land mines and hiccups.”

Interestingly, while a vaccine might be ready by the end of the year, Americans don’t necessarily seem ready ready to get one:

A new poll found only 49% of Americans say they would get a COVID-19 vaccine should an effective one be discovered. The poll from The Associated Press found 31% of Americans aren’t sure if they’d get the vaccine, and another 20% say they’d definitely refuse.

Forty-two percent of people who don’t want a vaccine say they’re concerned about catching COVID-19 from it.

Note: …most of the leading vaccine candidates don’t contain the coronavirus itself, meaning there’s no chance people could get infected from those shots.

–Dana

49 Responses to “Fauci: Hydroxychloroquine Not Effective Treatment for Covid-19”

  1. Can’t wait to hear Trump respond to this.

    Dana (0feb77)

  2. Duh, I’ve been saying this for months, it was patently obvious.

    Colonel Klink (Ret) (305827)

  3. Maybe Fauci thought he could slip this through when Trump is distracted by Twitter trouble.

    Kishnevi (c8d830)

  4. wasn’t he the guy telling us we could keep going on cruises back in March?

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/douggollan/2020/03/09/fauci-says-cruising-is-ok-if-you-are-healthy/

    Believe the expert.

    kaf (87f0c4)

  5. wasn’t he the guy telling us we could keep going on cruises back in March?

    He probably said that it was the month of March back in March, too, and now he knows that this is the month of May. Unlike the putrid orange pile of putrid orange putridity, Fauci is capable of learning.

    nk (1d9030)

  6. I’ll be chary about taking any T-rump Vaccine. I don’t like the outcome of that whole T-rump University thingy.

    Ragspierre (d9bec9)

  7. Screeching Karens: You need to do a controlled scientific study to determine HCQ’s effectiveness!

    Also screeching Karens: Well, I trust Doctor Fauci. That’s the end of that.

    Gryph (08c844)

  8. As long as the proposed vaccines are not harmful, I think a lot of people would give them a try. Remember, a vaccine is not supposed to make the infection impossible, just to make it hard, and mild if it occurs. A “herd” with similar resistance is what makes the infection impossible highly unlikely. When there are clusters of unvaccinated people, the herd effect is defeated and it is possible for the vaccinated person to get a mild form of the disease.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  9. Karen: a word which now means “everyone who disagrees with me” and little more. OK, also sexist.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  10. @4 thank you the link, I didn’t even have to google. His entire quote below from the article.
    “If you are a healthy young person, there is no reason if you want to go on a cruise ship, go on a cruise ship. But the fact is that if you have…an individual who has an underlying condition, particularly an elderly person who has an underlying condition, I would recommend strongly that they do not go on a cruise ship.”
    Sounds like a reasonable measured statement at that juncture.

    tla (7ab14a)

  11. Originally a “Karen” was a person who demanded their petty rights, despite the impracticality of the demand or how many other people’s rights it infringed.

    As in “I have a Constitutional Right to go into your store and shop without a mask if that’s what I want! *Spit* *Spit*” That is a Karen, according to the pre-Covid definition.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  12. Trump has succeeded wildly in one thing: More people don’t trust the government than ever before. Putin should mint a special medal for him just for that.

    nk (1d9030)

  13. Left out the zinc. Didnt apply it so enough, back to your designated despair

    Narciso (7404b5)

  14. do not wear a mask
    mask on
    saw a lady in the ukraine refused service in the post office so she took her panties off and covered her face
    honest injun
    nothing like going in a lumber yard and all the boys are walking around with stanley’s extended to 6′
    mask off

    mg (8cbc69)

  15. 11. I’m not demanding anyone to do anything for me. If someone decides they’re going to require me to wear a mask in their establishment, I just don’t go there until such time as that policy is rescinded. I don’t stand in the door making a scene with a full cart or any of that hullaballoo. Even I think that sort of behavior is rather unbecoming.

    Gryph (08c844)

  16. Screeching Karens: You need to do a controlled scientific study to determine HCQ’s effectiveness!

    Also screeching Karens: Well, I trust Doctor Fauci. That’s the end of that.

    Gryph (08c844) — 5/27/2020 @ 6:02 pm

    This is very close but not exactly correct. (Ignoring the insult directed at everyone that disagrees with you)

    You need to do double blind clinical trials to prove HCQ’s effectiveness!

    What has been done so far are large scale observational studies. (FYI these are also scientific studies)Those have shown no positive results and some negative results. Had they shown positive results the next step would have been those trials. Since the observational study was negative there’s no point in proceeding to clinical trials.

    Time123 (ae9d89)

  17. Karen is an insult directed at a type of behavior, not a point of view.

    A store manager could have a Karen make a fuss that masks are weakness and fear, and 10 minutes later a Karen make a fuss that ppl aren’t wearing them correctly. It about how they behave, not what they want.

    Time123 (ae9d89)

  18. 16. The closest we’ve come to anything resembling a controlled study of the effects of CoViD-19 itself has been the Diamond Princess. Any reasonable conclusions we could have drawn from that isolated sample of exposed individuals have been completely ignored in formulating policy throughout most of the world. Let’s not forget that while we pray at the altar of the Church of Our Lady of the Scientific Method.

    Gryph (08c844)

  19. 17. Okay. Thanks for the clarification, Karen.

    Gryph (08c844)

  20. What an asphole.

    Ragspierre (d9bec9)

  21. 20. That lancet article is about HCQ. I said, and I quote:

    The closest we’ve come to anything resembling a controlled study of the effects of CoViD-19 itself has been the Diamond Princess.

    [emphasis added]

    Scientists aren’t immune to normalcy and confirmation bias, which I think is evident in the way the Diamond Princess data was approached.

    Gryph (08c844)

  22. Based on what we know now I would refuse any vaccine that is developed before the end of the year. I’m not sure I’d take anything developed in the next 18 months.

    frosty (f27e97)

  23. “He probably said that it was the month of March back in March, too, and now he knows that this is the month of May. Unlike the putrid orange pile of putrid orange putridity, Fauci is capable of learning.”

    learning to parrot whatever his particular tribe of liberals or donors is saying at the moment, yes. Not exactly a point in favor of his ‘expertise’ though.

    I expect him to reverse himself, as he has in the past. He’s not really worth listening to except as a fixation of the type of ‘authority figure’ leftists glom onto.

    OJ Scarborough (4f02af)

  24. Graph, are you aware there are ways to use the scientific method other than controlled double blind studies?

    Time123 (9f42ee)

  25. weaponizing science
    stay off my lawn

    mg (8cbc69)

  26. 25. Absolutely. This is why I cited the Diamond Princess data as of some value, even though it’s not a controlled double-blind study.

    Gryph (08c844)

  27. learning to parrot whatever his particular tribe of liberals or donors is saying at the moment, yes.

    That’s so strange. I had him down as a T-rump admin. member.

    I expect him to reverse himself, as he has in the past. He’s not really worth listening to except as a fixation of the type of ‘authority figure’ leftists glom onto.

    So now we’re back to the Great Goad Cheeto. You do get around…

    Ragspierre (d9bec9)

  28. How ’bout the Roosevelt?

    Ragspierre (d9bec9)

  29. @ nk, #5:

    Unlike the putrid orange pile of putrid orange putridity, Fauci is capable of learning.

    Well, Fauci is a doctor, after all. You would hope he’d be able to look at developing evidence and adjust his advice accordingly. Fortunately, it seems clear he’s doing just that.

    And he didn’t even have to wish bodily harm to one person in order to oppose President Trump!

    Demosthenes (7fae81)

  30. At the end of his remarks, Fauci forgot to say, “I’m so fired.”

    Paul Montagu (b3f51b)

  31. At the end of his remarks, Fauci forgot to say, “I’m so fired.”

    It would have been a boss move if he had ended by announcing his immediate retirement and wishing his successor well.

    JVW (54fd0b)

  32. Lol, JVW.

    Dana (0feb77)

  33. In order for Trump to take offense, he’ll need to remember his hydroxychloroquine claims, including that he was taking it up to last week. Will he remember?

    nk (1d9030)

  34. Trump has succeeded wildly in one thing: More people don’t trust the government than ever before. Putin should mint a special medal for him just for that.

    Why go to the expense when Trump will do his bidding for nothing more than a coy wink and a pat on the head?

    Dave (1bb933)

  35. Trump has succeeded wildly in one thing: More people don’t trust the government than ever before. Putin should mint a special medal for him just for that.

    The Libertarians should nominate him. No one they’ve ever run has made their point about government and the inadvisability of giving it more power than Trump. Unless maybe it’s the Covid-era governors.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  36. +27. There are two issues:

    1. In this study, these drugs were given at a late stage of the disease (they say no later than 48 hours – but this is 48 hours after being admitted to the hospital)

    The original anecdotal reports were based on people regularly taking it having a much lower chance of hospitalization.

    So all this would do is prove it is no good then. Two out of the three theories about why hydroxychloroquibe might help had in preventing infection of a cell, but one had it preventing a cytokine reaction.

    2. They didn’t add zinc. My question is: where did the idea of adding zinc come fro? Anyway according to this theory, it would only be necessary to add zinc when blood levels of zinc are low. That probably strongly depends upon diet.

    Sammy Finkelman (f2d620)

  37. It seems that Dr. Fauci is asking or daring to be fired or forced into retirement.

    Then he could take a job as a network or cable commentator in the middle of the second wave, right before the election. It would pay better than government work.

    Gawain's Ghost (b25cd1)

  38. Fauci is career. The most Spit Bubble could do is take him off the Orange Gaslight Team.

    nk (1d9030)

  39. Japan yesterday declared at least a temporary victory in its battle with COVID-19, and it triumphed by following its own playbook. It drove down the number of daily new cases to near target levels of 0.5 per 100,000 people with voluntary and not very restrictive social distancing and without large-scale testing. Instead, the country focused on finding clusters of infections and attacking the underlying causes, which often proved to be overcrowded gathering spots such as gyms and nightclubs…..

    …. Then, whereas much of the rest of the world built its response to the pandemic on widespread contact tracing, isolation, and testing, Japan adopted a “quite different” strategy, Oshitani says. “We try to identify the clusters and [determine] their common characteristics.

    Not surprisingly, they found that most clusters originated in gyms, pubs, live music venues, karaoke rooms, and similar establishments where people gather, eat and drink, chat, sing, and work out or dance, rubbing shoulders for relatively extended periods of time. They also concluded that most of the primary cases that touched off large clusters were either asymptomatic or had very mild symptoms. “It is impossible to stop the emergence of clusters just by testing many people,” Oshitani says. This led them to urge people to avoid what they dubbed the “three Cs”—closed spaces, crowds, and close-contact settings in which people are talking face-to-face. It sounds simple. But, “This has been the most important component of the strategy,” Oshitani says.”

    Japan ends its COVID-19 state of emergency

    https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/05/japan-ends-its-covid-19-state-emergency
    _

    harkin (9c4571)

  40. After Crowding at Lake of the Ozarks, Missouri Officials Urge Quarantine

    After large crowds gathered at the Lake of the Ozarks over the Memorial Day weekend in defiance of Missouri’s social distancing guidelines, officials in two states urged those visitors to quarantine for two weeks, or until they tested negative for the coronavirus.

    The visitors “showed no efforts to follow social distancing practices,” the St. Louis County Department of Health said in a statement on Monday, issuing a travel advisory for people who had been to the popular destination spot.

    Video footage from one gathering showed a large crowd of people, most of them in bathing suits and without face masks, at a pool with music blaring overhead and yachts docked at a marina behind them. The videos spread widely on social media over the weekend.
    ….
    “It’s irresponsible and dangerous to engage in such high risk behavior just to have some fun over the extended holiday weekend,” Lyda Krewson, the mayor of St. Louis, said in a statement on Tuesday.

    “Now, these folks will be going home to St. Louis and counties across Missouri and the Midwest, raising concerns about the potential of more positive cases, hospitalizations, and tragically, deaths,” she said. “It’s just deeply disturbing and threatens the progress we’ve all made together to flatten the curve.”

    The Kansas department of health on Tuesday echoed that statement and urged state residents who had been there and did not observe social distancing practices to voluntarily self-quarantine for two weeks.
    ….
    On Tuesday, Gov. Mike Parson of Missouri said on Twitter that “there were some poor decisions that were made.”
    ……
    And while (sheriff) deputies were busy keeping order this weekend, “social distancing is not a crime and therefore the sheriff’s office has no authority to enforce actions in that regard,” [Tony R. Helms, the sheriff of Camden County] said. “We expect residents and visitors to exhibit personal responsibility when at the lake.”
    ……

    Well duh! Once you even partially lift restrictions people won’t pay attention to caveats. Why is anybody surprised? I doubt any one will self-quarantine. I heard the bar served HCQ cocktails with a zinc chaser, though.

    RipMurdock (d2a2a8)

  41. For what it’s worth:

    http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/280690

    Dr. Zelenko promises: Use of hydroxychloroquine with Zinc ‘will end coronavirus plague’

    Dr. Zelenko promises: Use of hydroxychloroquine with Zinc ‘will end coronavirus plague’
    In interview with Arutz Sheva, Dr. Zelenko says treatment with hydroxychloroquine and Zinc within first 5 days reduces death rates by 85%.

    Dr. Vladimir Zelenko is the doctor who treated peeple from the Satmar Hassidic cmmunity of Kiryas Joel, which has becomea centter – big volunteer effort – for getting donations of convalescent plasma. By and laege they vote Republican there, but can be moved by endorsements from their leaders. Dr. Zelenko was also the doctor who receommended hydroxychlroquine whom Rudolph Giuliani was in contact with.

    It seems he closed his clinic, but isn’t saying why. I would suspect legal problems or legal threats, although t could e also extralegal threats.

    He says Kiryas Joel “has the lowest death rate of any Jewish community in America.” (!!) Maybe than other religiously similar or related (by origin) communities, I don’t know. He (modestly?) refrains from taking responsibility for that lower death rate.

    He says the reason there’s resistance to his cure is “politics, profit, arrogance, and fear.”

    He has a whole theory of the disease, in which it follows a regular pattern:

    “Within the first five days when symptoms start, the viral load or the amount of virus is relatively stable or constant. But around day six, it explodes like a wildfire. Now most patients don’t come to the doctor right away. They come around day four or five…you wait until the results of the test, which takes three days, you get into day eight. And what happens by then is the patient is really sick, the fire’s out of control. So the key is to treat based on clinical suspicion.”

    That hydroxychloroquine is for early use, and even prevention, is the consensus of its advocates. Yet it was tested for late use. That’s the province of remdisivir, which interferes with the production of new viral particles in an infected cell..

    Dr. Zelenko argues: “My data will show that if you initiate treatment within the first five days, you have an 85% reduction in death and hospitalization. What that means is that this infection becomes no different than any other infection.”

    One problem is hat so early you don;t know if somebody was going to have a serious case, or mabe een if the were infected.

    He also said:

    It is “one of the safest [prescription drugs?[ in the world.”

    “I invite anyone to prove me wrong. Go and prove me wrong. This medication, when scaled globally, will end this plague.”

    He wrote a letter to president Trump.

    It says in part:

    My field-tested treatment regimen for high risk patients with clinical diagnosis is as follows:

    Hydroxychloroquine 200mg twice a day for 5 days

    Azithromycin 500mg once a day for 5 days

    Zinc sulfate 220mg (or the equivalent of 50mg elemental zinc) once a day for 5 days

    I also suggest the following prophylactic regimen for very high risk individuals:

    Hydroxychloroquine 200mg once a day for 5 days, and then 1 pill a week until immunity can be shown or a vaccine becomes available.

    Zinc Sulfate 220mg (or the equivalent of 50mg elemental zinc) once a day for 5 days, and then 1 pill a week until immunity can be shown or a vaccine becomes available.

    Sammy Finkelman (704f59)

  42. Sammy, quacks are international.

    Ragspierre (d9bec9)

  43. He says Kiryas Joel “has the lowest death rate of any Jewish community in America.” (!!) Maybe than other religiously similar or related (by origin) communities, I don’t know. He (modestly?) refrains from taking responsibility for that lower death rate.

    Huh, multiple Jewish communities in American have zero (percent, total, whatever) deaths, so I don’t know where he gets his facts. Of course, Kiryas Joel has a rate, i.e., not zero, so that is…carry the one…infinity higher rate, undefined.

    Oh, right above his legs, below his back, pulls ’em from deep.

    Colonel Klink (Ret) (305827)

  44. Wisconsin reports record number of new coronavirus cases, deaths

    Wisconsin saw a record number of new coronavirus cases and deaths reported in a single day on Wednesday, two weeks after the state’s Supreme Court struck down its statewide stay-at-home order.

    The state reported 599 new known COVID-19 cases on Wednesday with 22 known deaths, according to Wisconsin’s Department of Health Services, the highest recorded daily rise since the pandemic began there. As of Wednesday, the state had more than 16,460 known cases and 539 known deaths, according to the department.

    The previous record in new coronavirus cases was 528 the week prior.
    ……
    Shortly after the ruling, the Tavern League of Wisconsin, an industry group, posted a message on social media saying that as a result of the decision, businesses could reopen “immediately.”
    …..

    Entirely predictable.

    RipMurdock (d2a2a8)

  45. North Carolina Governor: RNC Hasn’t Submitted Safety Plan

    North Carolina’s governor said Thursday that his administration hasn’t received the written safety plan for the upcoming Republican National Convention requested by his health secretary in response to President Donald Trump’s demands for a full-scale event.
    ……
    Cooper said his administration required a similar written plan from NASCAR ahead of its recent race in the Charlotte area that was held without fans. He said he’s in similar discussions with sports teams including Charlotte’s NFL and NBA teams.
    ……
    Local Republican officials have noted that Trump isn’t a party to [the] convention contract and doesn’t appear to have the power to unilaterally move the event, which is scheduled to start in 90 days after two years of planning.
    ……

    RipMurdock (d2a2a8)

  46. Governors of Georgia and Florida offer to host Republican convention as Trump threatens to pull it from North Carolina

    The governors of Georgia and Florida have offered to host the Republican National Convention after President Donald Trump threatened to pull the event out of North Carolina, where it is expected to be held in late August.
    ……

    RipMurdock (d2a2a8)

  47. Here are the numbers:…[R]esearchers analyzing data of about 96,000 hospitalized patients reported that [HCQ and chloroquine] didn’t help patients fight Covid-19, while raising the risk for heart problems and death. That study, funded by Brigham and Women’s Hospital in Boston…

    The Brigham study may have serious problems. The Guardian reports, for example, that “the study’s results relating to the Australian data did not reconcile with the state’s coronavirus data, including hospital admissions and deaths.” The study may also rely on “data” from institutions that didn’t provide their stats to Surgisphere, the creator of the database used by the study authors. It’s hard to be certain at this point because Surgisphere isn’t being transparent about the data’s origins.

    Magma (28603d)


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