Patterico's Pontifications

5/26/2020

Poll: Trump Ahead in Utah by … 3 Points?

Filed under: General — Patterico @ 8:26 am



UtahPolicy.com:

The last time Utah voted for a Democrat for president was Lyndon Baines Johnson in 1964. The Beehive State’s 56-year streak of voting for Republicans for president may be in real danger according to a new poll.

The UtahPolicy.com/KUTV 2 News survey conducted by Y2 Analytics finds Republican Donald Trump leading presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden by just 3 points, 44-41 percent. 8 percent of likely voters say they would support a third-party candidate. 5 percent were undecided while 1 percent picked another candidate.

The piece notes that Trump’s support is still strong on the right. His problem there is with independents.

Where Trump runs into trouble is among independent voters and political moderates. Biden leads Trump by 10 points among true independent voters, 38-28 percent. Moderates back Biden over Trump 53-19 percent. That unease about giving Trump another term in office among political independents and moderate Utah voters is the primary reason the contest with Biden is so close at this point in the race.

What’s more, the margin of error is … three points.

The survey was conducted by Y2 Analytics from May 9-15, 2020 among 1099 likely Utah voters with a margin of error of 3 percent.

There’s a lot of time left in the race and this is just one poll, but it’s not a good sign for Trump.

Gee, that’s too bad.

87 Responses to “Poll: Trump Ahead in Utah by … 3 Points?”

  1. Not drinking, not smoking, and three wives, will only get you so far, even in Utah.

    nk (1d9030)

  2. Trump has the same problem in Texas, another State that is more conservative than Republican.

    PS to nk — very clever.

    DRJ (15874d)

  3. nk — that’s hilarious.

    Radegunda (89f220)

  4. Thank you, ladies. This is a good example of why Biden should resist the pressure to pander to the likes of Charlie Mange Tha Dog. He needs to eke out states, not an extra 3 million votes in California, and to do that he needs to stay as close to the sane center as possible.

    nk (1d9030)

  5. I’m not Mormon and I think their region is somewhat silly. But I’ve always admired how well they adhere to their principles. It’s admirable.

    Time123 (daab2f)

  6. I wonder how Biden’s replacements for RBG, Breyer and Thomas will poll in Utah.

    beer ‘n pretzels (e7227f)

  7. Trump’s secret weapon is, of course, JoeyBee.

    All the gaffe-prone plagiarist has to do is stay alive, actually get the nom [Cuomo by acclimation?!] pick a black woman, because he’s being pressured by a minority voting block and boxed himself into eliminating all men w/a classic piece of pandering — then simply open his mouth. He’ll disappear like every a guest star on an episode of Combat!

    Man, if you’re certain you’re for Trump, then you must be too white, eh, JoeyBee?

    Idiot.

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  8. And in other states (May polling)…
    Biden by 3 in Wisconsin.
    Biden by 6 in Florida.
    Trump by 3 in North Carolina.
    Biden by 7 in Arizona.

    Paul Montagu (b3f51b)

  9. The 10 Senate seats most likely to flip
    Five senators are staring down serious political danger ahead of the November elections.

    With less than six months to go until Election Day, the battle for control of the Senate hinges on five key states. Democrats are after four seats in particular — in Arizona, Colorado, Maine and North Carolina — while Republicans are largely playing defense, but see an easy pickup opportunity in Alabama.

    A handful of seats in states like Iowa, Montana and Michigan are also showing signs they may be in play.
    Top 5:

    ……
    Doug Jones (D-Ala)
    ……
    Cory Gardner (R-Colo.)
    ……
    Martha McSally (R-Ariz.)
    ……
    Susan Collins (R-Maine)
    ……
    Thom Tillis (R-NC)
    ……

    Also in play:

    Joni Ernst (R-Iowa)
    ……
    Kansas (Open)
    ……
    Kelly Loeffler (R-Ga.)
    ……
    Steve Daines (R-Mont.)
    ……
    Gary Peters (D-Mich.)
    ……

    RipMurdock (d2a2a8)

  10. Changing Southwest may bring Democrats a milestone win
    …….
    Democrats today are strongly positioned to oust Republican Sens. Martha McSally in Arizona and Cory Gardner in Colorado and hold their own open seat in New Mexico. If the party wins those three races, as most analysts today agree they are favored but not assured to do, it will control all eight Senate seats from Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada for the first time since 1941, according to Senate records.
    …….
    The Democrats’ potential clean sweep of those Southwestern US Senate seats marks another advance in a tectonic remaking of the electoral battlefield. Even as Democrats struggle to maintain their position in slow-growing, predominantly white and heavily blue-collar battlegrounds across the Rust Belt, they are growing more competitive in the fast-growing, diverse and increasingly white-collar new swing states across the Sun Belt.

    The exclamation point on this shift is the polls showing former Vice President Joe Biden, the presumptive Democratic nominee, in a competitive position to potentially win all four of these key Southwest states, something no Democratic presidential nominee has done since Harry Truman in 1948. One has to reach back even further — to Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1936 — to find the last time Democrats carried each of these states in a presidential race while also holding all of their Senate seats.
    ……

    RipMurdock (d2a2a8)

  11. It’s only May, and the gloating is already baked in.

    beer ‘n pretzels (e7227f)

  12. Trump advisers warn McSally is in trouble
    Senior political advisers to President Donald Trump warned Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell Thursday that Republican Sen. Martha McSally is falling dangerously behind in the critical swing state of Arizona.
    ……
    The discussion comes amid increasing Republican worries about Arizona. An array of recent polls have shown Trump losing to Joe Biden in the state, which Democrats have not won in a presidential election since 1996. Democrats have signaled they intend to make an aggressive play in Arizona.

    The Senate race is a particular trouble spot. As Senate Republicans try to protect their majority, McSally has emerged as one of the party’s most vulnerable incumbents. One survey released this week showed McSally trailing Kelly by 13 points.

    McSally is also heading into the final six months of the campaign at a substantial fundraising disadvantage. Through the end of March, Kelly had outraised McSally $31 million to $18 million. Kelly, who is the husband of ex-Rep. Gabrielle Giffords, is the most well-funded Senate candidate in the country.
    …….

    RipMurdock (d2a2a8)

  13. It’s not gloating, it’s a warning.

    RipMurdock (d2a2a8)

  14. BTW, DCSCA, I have seen every episode of Combat!, recently at that, and the guest stars who were “stars”, such as Telly Savalas, John Cassavetes, and Tab Hunter, were only wounded at worst. They survived.

    nk (1d9030)

  15. A white woman has apologized after calling police on a black man and saying ‘there’s an African American man threatening my life’
    A white woman has apologized for calling police on a black man bird-watching in Central Park on Monday morning after the two argued about her unleashed dog.

    Amy Cooper told CNN she wanted to “publicly apologize to everyone.”

    “I’m not a racist. I did not mean to harm that man in any way,” she said, adding that she also didn’t mean any harm to the African American community.

    She was walking her dog Monday while Christian Cooper (no relation) was bird-watching at a wooded area of Central Park called the Ramble. They both told CNN the dispute began because her dog was not on a leash, contrary to the Ramble’s rules, according to the park’s website.
    ……
    “I’m taking a picture and calling the cops,” Amy Cooper is heard saying in the video. “I’m going to tell them there’s an African American man threatening my life.”
    ……
    She has been placed on administrative leave by her employer, investment company Franklin Templeton.

    “We take these matters very seriously, and we do not condone racism of any kind. While we are in the process of investigating the situation, the employee involved has been put on administrative leave,” the company’s statement read.
    ……

    RipMurdock (d2a2a8)

  16. @14. Ahhhh, but only for one episode: They always ‘exit’ in some way, shape or form. 😉

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  17. As long as it’s not the same way Vic Morrow exited real life…on that note someone should opt for humvee or Apc whether that happens 8 mos or 56 months out.

    urbanleftbehind (f52f64)

  18. 15. Bird watching. Yes, sure he was. Is that what they call accosting and filming a woman alone in the park these days? Her dog was unleashed! Gimme a break! She did the right thing to call the police.

    nk (1d9030)

  19. Somewhere there are GOP cabals saying things like “Who will rid us of this turbulent pest?”

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  20. If you go to YouTube you can still see Maddow in Aug. 2016 explaining how Trump’s numbers in S Carolina prove that he’s toast.

    https://youtu.be/hZmY_jIe6do
    _

    harkin (79562f)

  21. One survey released this week showed McSally trailing Kelly by 13 points.

    McSally has two issues:

    1) The Trumpists and other fascist Right will never forgive her for beating “their” two candidates in the primaries, although they pretends it’s about insufficiently supporting Trump.

    2) Trump could help her with his crazies, but it would lose her the center.

    This is why she lost last time, and why she will lose this time. True to their thoughtless nature, the Trumpists will succeed in electing two Socialist gun-grabbers.

    I guess they plan a Dr No-style “ruling the ruins” strategy.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  22. BTW, the hard right in AZ seems to be repeating every last mistake of the California GOP, and inventing new ones.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  23. I think hes on the team that doesnt take that kind of trophy, nk, but his vigilance was wasted on a fluffy instead of a Pit.

    urbanleftbehind (f52f64)

  24. Trump’s entire strategy for destroying the GOP getting re-elected is to give voters a choice — Trump or the Commies — then doing everything humanly possible to make himself look worse than a bunch of Commies.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  25. This begs for a Quantum Leap episode:

    http://www.yahoo.com/news/pence-aide-katie-miller-had-172030811.html

    urbanleftbehind (f52f64)

  26. @24. Meh. Confucius say mix Red with yellow for pleasing orange.

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  27. One of the more interesting things about conservative voters is two of the types I see among friends:

    2016 Trump voters who say they will not vote for him this time.

    2016 voters who declined to vote for Trump but will vote for him this time.

    I see more of the former than the latter. They really really dislike the Democrats.
    _

    harkin (79562f)

  28. Trump’s entire strategy for destroying the GOP getting re-elected is to give voters a choice — Trump or the Commies — then doing everything humanly possible to make himself look worse than a bunch of Commies.

    Kevin M (ab1c11) — 5/26/2020 @ 11:46 am

    I don’t think he cares at all about the GOP. I think Trump is all about Trump.

    Time123 (ae9d89)

  29. If Trump loses Utah, the I will have one thing to say.

    LOSER!

    Seriously, this election is a real conundrum. On the one side, you have a miserable excuse for a human being, whose only consideration is whether he looks good in the next ten minutes. (The dummy is too stupid to take the long view and think how he might look in a month or year.)

    On the other side, you have a party that has been radically moved to the left, and will enact policies we will suffer from for decades. Not to mention a doddering half-senile fool at the top of the ticket.

    For the first time in my adult life, I may not vote in this election. (Not that it matters, I live in a very blue state.)

    Bored Lawyer (56c962)

  30. BL, I may also not vote for the first time ever. I voted for the Libertarian candidate the last few times, but this year they seem determined to be irrelevant.

    Kishnevi (a21714)

  31. nk (1d9030) — 5/26/2020 @ 11:27 am
    Whoah, partner!

    The National Audubon Society, the country’s leading bird conservation organization, said they were grateful that Christian Cooper, a board member of the New York City Audubon Society, is safe.
    “Black Americans often face terrible daily dangers in outdoor spaces, where they are subjected to unwarranted suspicion, confrontation, and violence,” said Rebeccah Sanders, Audubon senior vice president for state programs. “The outdoors — and the joy of birds — should be safe and welcoming for all people.”

    felipe (023cc9)

  32. Gee, that’s too bad.

    I see what you did there.

    Dave (1bb933)

  33. ‘Something isn’t right’: U.S. probes soaring beef prices
    Supermarket customers are paying more for beef than they have in decades during the coronavirus pandemic. But at the same time, the companies that process the meat for sale are paying farmers and ranchers staggeringly low prices for cattle.

    Now, the Agriculture Department and prosecutors are investigating whether the meatpacking industry is fixing or manipulating prices.

    The Department of Justice is looking at the four largest U.S. meatpackers — Tyson Foods, JBS, National Beef and Cargill — which collectively control about 85 percent of the U.S. market for the slaughter and packaging of beef, according to a person with knowledge of the probe. The USDA is also investigating the beef price fluctuations, Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue has confirmed.

    Meatpackers say beef prices have spiked during the pandemic because plants are running at lower capacity as workers fall ill, so less meat is making its way to shelves. The four companies didn’t respond to requests for comment about the probes.
    …….
    …….At the same time, farmers and ranchers desperate to offload their cattle as they reach optimal weight for slaughter are cutting prices so they won’t have to kill the animals without selling them.
    ……

    RipMurdock (d2a2a8)

  34. Mulvaney: ‘We’ve overreacted a little bit’ to coronavirus

    Former White House chief of staff Mick Mulvaney said Monday he believes the U.S. has “overreacted a little bit” to the coronavirus pandemic, arguing that Americans can get back to work sooner rather than later if they observe social distancing and wear masks.
    …..
    “The fact that it’s difficult to get this disease from touching stuff … should sort of reset how we look at this,” Mulvaney said on CNBC. “What it means is that if we are careful about social distancing and putting on masks and so forth, we should be able to go back to work sooner rather than later.”

    Mulvaney said he flew on an airplane over the weekend and would be “completely comfortable” sitting in a middle seat if he and both passengers next to him had masks on to limit the odds of transmitting the disease.

    “I think we’ve sort of lost perspective on this a little bit, Joe, and we’ve overreacted a little bit,” he told co-host Joe Kernen.
    …….

    …..arguing that Americans can get back to work sooner rather than later if they observe social distancing and wear masks. …..

    None which his boss does.

    RipMurdock (d2a2a8)

  35. I’m not Mormon and I think their region is somewhat silly. But I’ve always admired how well they adhere to their principles. It’s admirable.

    Time123 (daab2f) — 5/26/2020 @ 10:13 am

    I think I’ve figured it out. I think many adult Mormons are 100% aware that many of the more absurd aspects of their faith aren’t true, but the leap of faith needed to adhere to the religion also is a break from other worldly ideals, and somehow is fertile ground to cultivate great family values. A more worldly religion grounded in facts will be more susceptible to reason and argument, and that’s actually dangerous when you think about what the world is telling kids today.

    Biden is crushing Trump, and all the Trump fans laughing that the dems should be talking about dumping Biden were really projecting their real fear. The GOP hasn’t selected its candidate yet.

    Dustin (d59cff)


  36. White Woman Is Fired After Calling Police on Black Man in Central Park

    ……
    As the man, Christian Cooper, filmed on his phone, the woman, clutching her thrashing dog, calls the police, her voice rising in hysteria.

    “I’m going to tell them there’s an African-American man threatening my life,” she says to him while dialing, then repeats to the operator, “He’s African-American.”
    ……
    Shortly after the video was posted by the man’s sister on Monday, someone who said they had been the white woman’s dog walker identified her. The woman’s name, Amy Cooper, soon began trending on Twitter.
    ……
    By evening, Ms. Cooper was placed on leave by her employer, Franklin Templeton, while the incident was being investigated. Ms. Cooper, who is not related to Mr. Cooper, heads insurance portfolio management at Franklin Templeton, according to her LinkedIn page, and graduated from the University of Chicago Booth School of Business.

    On Tuesday afternoon, Franklin Templeton announced that she had been fired.
    ……

    A Memorial Day she will never forget.

    RipMurdock (d2a2a8)

  37. Update to #15-

    White Woman Is Fired After Calling Police on Black Man in Central Park

    A Memorial Day she will never forget.

    RipMurdock (d2a2a8)

  38. Be wary of polls…

    Polls had HRC locked in for an easy win at the run-up of the 2016 election.

    I think Trump’s chances (and by extension downticket GOPers), is:
    a) if the economy starts humming again
    and…
    b) the covid19 policies is well managed.
    and, to certain extent…
    c) how well the debates goes between Trump and Biden.

    The Biden/DNC campaign seems to be going all in in being anti-Trump. All about Trump opposition, and light on actual plans. We’ll see if that’s enough.

    By contrast, the Trump re-election campaign seems to be NOT taking things for granted and willing to spend $$$ into competitive elections. That may be a boon for Senators facing tough competition, ala Gardner and McSally.

    whembly (c30c83)

  39. Justice Dept. Ends Inquiries Into 3 Senators’ Stock Trades
    The Justice Department notified three senators on Tuesday that it will not pursue insider trading charges against them after an investigation into stock transactions from the early days of the coronavirus pandemic did not find sufficient evidence they had broken the law, according to a person briefed on the investigations.

    The department contacted lawyers for Senators Kelly Loeffler, Republican of Georgia; James M. Inhofe, Republican of Oklahoma; and Dianne Feinstein, Democrat of California. ……Law enforcement officials appear to still be investigating Senator Richard M. Burr, Republican of North Carolina ……

    RipMurdock (d2a2a8)

  40. #38

    I would be more wary of your candidate.

    Appalled (1a17de)

  41. 338-
    I think Trump’s chances (and by extension downticket GOPers), is:
    a) if the economy starts humming again
    and…
    b) the covid19 policies is well managed.

    A) Highly unlikely, unemployment will still be above 10% six months from now: “he unemployment rate is projected to average 15 percent during the second and third quarters of 2020, up from less than 4 percent in the first quarter.” CBO Forecast

    B) That prediction left the barn a long time ago.

    C) No idea.

    RipMurdock (d2a2a8)

  42. Trump campaign has video of groper joe groping children they are ready to use on the pedophile. You can see it over at ace of spades hq.

    asset (f09f89)

  43. @40

    #38

    I would be more wary of your candidate.

    Appalled (1a17de) — 5/26/2020 @ 1:34 pm

    I wouldn’t.

    I’d be more concerned over Biden’s chance of winning and any Democrats in power.

    I mean, I get it, Trump does/say plenty detestable things. However, I vastly favor the policy outcomes Trump and the GOP has done over anything what a Democratic administration would deliver.

    That’s an indictment against Democrats.

    whembly (c30c83)

  44. @41

    A) Highly unlikely, unemployment will still be above 10% six months from now: “he unemployment rate is projected to average 15 percent during the second and third quarters of 2020, up from less than 4 percent in the first quarter.” CBO Forecast

    If there are realized improvements, I doubt his voters would blame him.

    B) That prediction left the barn a long time ago.

    How do you figure?

    C) No idea.

    RipMurdock (d2a2a8) — 5/26/2020 @ 1:40 pm

    The debate *is* a crapshoot between the two… but, it’d be memorable no matter what.

    whembly (c30c83)

  45. Trump campaign has video of groper joe groping children they are ready to use on the pedophile. You can see it over at ace of spades hq.

    Awesome, some more Russian propaganda. It’s not like you’re not advertising it, but the fools amplifying your active measures are the real problem. I expect foreign assets to do their job.

    I used to hope that Americans wouldn’t fall for it two elections in a row, but the gullible minority is also vocal. Anti-Mask brigades, Russian disinformation, new conspiracy delusions about Joe Scarborough, Russian disinformation. News that Donald Trump is not a moron, Russian disinformation.

    Colonel Klink (Ret) (305827)

  46. yes, you shut down the entire country, based on a model, that the designer neil ferguson couldnt abide by is ‘thinking stupidly’ trying to start the engine back up, that will be tricky,

    narciso (7404b5)

  47. @43 It’s beyond policy for me at this point. The country as a whole has a significant crisis and Trump vacated the leadership position. If the governors hadn’t stepped up and taken the leadership in their own states and worked out their own deals together, the entire situation would have been a morass of confusion. Even if you don’t believe that millions of US citizens could have died, a world wide epidemic is still one of the ultimate tests of leadership and Trump failed it. Resoundingly.

    Nic (896fdf)

  48. That’s hilarious. Utah R’s have a death wish, just like most Republican “Moderates”. No doubt they look at Calf and think “Why cant’ we be like that?”

    rcocean (846d30)

  49. Elect Joe Biden and make America Left-wing again!

    rcocean (846d30)

  50. Yeb! would be killing it in Utah. Amnesty. Globalization, along with some Wars in the Middle East and being China’s Cuckholster. Just what Utah wants.

    rcocean (846d30)

  51. Despite the best efforts of NeverTrumperellas, the Democrats and their media stenographers, the economy will rebound in a big way 3Q/4Q2020.

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  52. Prediction: Trump will win in Utah.

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  53. Mormons tend to be couth. Trump? Not so much. And there you have it.

    norcal (a5428a)

  54. Having said that, I will probably vote for Trump again, because the damage from the left will last longer and cut deeper than the harms from Trump.

    norcal (a5428a)

  55. The state’s demographics have changed, but that won’t matter.

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  56. No doubt they look at Calif and think “Why cant’ we be like that?”

    Doubtful.

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  57. What I don’t understand are people who voted for Trump in the primary in 2016. He was the worst of the bunch.

    norcal (a5428a)

  58. Not my choice (I supported Cruz), but better than Bush, Kasich or Huckleberry…

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  59. I supported Fiorina, and then Cruz.

    When Trump started disparaging Fiorina’s looks, I developed an intense dislike of him.

    norcal (a5428a)

  60. Having said that, I will probably vote for Trump again, because the damage from the left will last longer and cut deeper than the harms from Trump.

    norcal (a5428a) — 5/26/2020 @ 3:08 pm

    Make no mistake, the left is coming and plan to use this moment to change things drastically, and we all see how difficult it is to reverse these things. It will not be a good day when Biden and a democrat senate and house take over.

    Dustin (d59cff)

  61. Yes, yes, they will take away everyone’s guns, provide abortions to 12 yr olds in a van outside the elementary school and turn the entire country into communism. Just like when the Rs come in people of color will be randomly shot in the streets, women will have their shoes taken away and be forced to cook for incels while pregnant, and the country will be turning into a fascist paradise.

    This is one of the ways we get lousy government. Can’t vote for the slightly better person because they belong to the wrong party and the sky might fall. Bah.

    Nic (896fdf)

  62. Bored Lawyer and Kishnevi, I would advise against not voting. Granted, there are not many candidates to vote for in this election, but there are plenty to vote against. That’s the purpose of the franchise, to record you displeasure.

    I’ll ask for a write-in ballot. I did that in 1992, voted for myself. I only got one vote and lost by millions, but at least my one vote was counted.

    There are a lot more candidates in this election than president and vice-president. City, county, state legislators and governors are all on the ballot, along with representatives and senators. Not voting is not an option. The congressional district I live in has never elected a Republican, since it was created in 1913. So my one vote won’t matter much, not that I woul evrer vote for a Trumpublican.

    It’s not a matter of who I want to vote for. It’s a matter of who I want to vote against. I’ll be voting against Cornyn.

    It is sad the Libertarian Party delegates nominated Jo Jorgensen and Spike Cohen. It does seen they want to be irrelevant. The Democratic Party has other options than Biden, and there’s no telling who the super delegates might nominate. The Republican Party is stuck with Trump, and that seems to be a losing proposition. Which is why I’ll ask for a write-in ballot.

    Felipe, did you know that the Rio Grande Valley is called Birders Paradise? Yeah, practically every species of migratory birds stop here on their way south for the winter. In fact, we have the World Birding Center just north of town. It’s where Winter Texans go with their binoculars and cameras. They’re not ornithologists, but bird watchers. I’ve known several of them over my life, and they’re obsessed with birds.

    When I was in high school in the 1970s, someone saw a big bird, didn’t know what it was. And this became a real thing. I was all over the news, every night. Big Bird, what is it?

    T-Shirts were printed with some macabre creature. Big Bird! What is it?

    This went on for weeks. So, I’m sitting in the cafeteria, and all the kids, wearing Big Bird t-shirts, are speculating, what is Big Bird?

    Some of these stupid kids said it was a pterodactyl. Others said it was a space alien. Then they asked me, and I said I think it’s a big bird. Probably a vulture or a condor, maybe a stork or a pelican, something like that.

    You think it’s a bird? That’s the most stupid thing I’ve ever heard!

    You’re talking about extinct flying dinosaurs and nonexistent extra-terrestrials, and you’re calling me stupid?

    Finally, someone caught a picture of the Big Bird. Do you know what it was?
    An Albatross.

    Very rare, extremely unexpected, but not without the realm of possibility. The Albatross is a soaring bird. Wind currents follow ocean currents, they’re called trade winds.

    So what the Albatross does is soar from one continent to another. This is the theme of Coleridge’s Rime of the Ancient Mariner. Along the equator there are no ocean or wind currents. It’s the last place a sailing ship wants to be. The only way out is to row.

    An Albatross, however, knows which way to fly. So when the captain kills the Albatross, it dooms the ship. He could have simply followed the Albatross to the trade winds and safety. Instead, he shot the Albatross, and killed everyone on board.

    They latest death count, according to RCP, is 100,200+. The economy is in ruin. The real estate market is deader than dead. Businesses are closing, many to never reopen, unemployment is rising, deficit spending and the national debt are soaring. We are in a Greater Depression. And we have no one but the Republicans to blame. The RNC went all in for Trump in 2016, and look at where that has gotten us. In a state of mounting division and acrimony, with rising deficits and increasing debt.

    Children and grandchildren will not look well upon us. The Baby Boomers, given the world on a silver platter, they promptly turned it into a turd on a paper plate.

    Gawain's Ghost (b25cd1)

  63. I agree, Dustin. I just hope that people who refuse to vote for Trump (a sentiment which I understand if not completely agree with) will vote Republican when it come to the House and Senate. If Biden and his all-too-important-and-probably-leftist running mate have a Democratic majority in the House and Senate, Katy bar the door. It will be an agenda so radical that we will pine for the days of Clinton and Obama.

    norcal (a5428a)

  64. I did that in 1992, voted for myself. I only got one vote and lost by millions, but at least my one vote was counted.

    That’s like the time my brother told me he had his first menage a trois. He said there were two no-shows, but that he still had a good time.

    norcal (a5428a)

  65. Since we are on the topic, let’s talk about the shutdown.

    What I find strange is that many on the right assert that the shutdown was a mistake, and we should have done something more modest, perhaps along the lines of Sweden. And that would have led to less economic damage.

    The point is debatable, but let’s run with it.

    Who is to blame for that wrong decision? They will blame Drs. Faucci and Birx. Bologna.

    The president’s desk is the one where the buck stops. He did not have to listen to their recommendations, or he could have adopted a modified approach. They are experts in public health, but public policy is still set by the political branches.

    A real leader would have pushed back, and would have said, we have to balance the harms from the virus against the harms from a shut down.

    Instead, Trump made noises on Twitter, but for the most part went along with what they said.

    So Trump has to own the decision. If this was a historic mistake that ruined the economy, it was Trump’s historic mistake.

    Bored Lawyer (56c962)

  66. Nic @61,

    You’re correct about both sides exaggerating the harm the other party will do, but sometimes the claims are accurate. Biden himself said he’d put Beto O’Rourke in charge of gun policy. Beto wants to take away semi-automatic rifles. Just rhetoric? Okay. But there have been a lot of 5-4 Supreme Court decisions that could have gone the wrong way if there were not a conservative majority, and Biden is not going to nominate a conservative judge.

    No, the left is not going to turn the country communist overnight, but it’s hard to argue that the U.S. is not becoming more socialist over time. Democrats passed Obamacare despite unanimous opposition from Republicans. And now they want Medicare for all. We can’t even afford Medicare for some.

    norcal (a5428a)

  67. They never liked Trump in Utah. It;s the best state for a third party candidate to carry some electoral votes.

    Sammy Finkelman (45c255)

  68. norcal (a5428a) — 5/26/2020 @ 4:32 pm

    Biden himself said he’d put Beto O’Rourke in charge of gun policy. Beto wants to take away semi-automatic rifles.

    That;s afalse issue. The United States is not Canada.

    Sammy Finkelman (45c255)

  69. 2Gawain’s Ghost In 1992 you were cuunted as a voter but are you sure that your vote for president was counted?

    Sammy Finkelman (45c255)

  70. Bored Lawyer and Kishnevi, I would advise against not voting. Granted, there are not many candidates to vote for in this election, but there are plenty to vote against. That’s the purpose of the franchise, to record you displeasure.

    I will probably vote, but not for POTUS. And probably not for Congressperson. My rep is Wasserman Schultz, but the GOP candidate will likely be a Trumpnik, so they won’t get my vote. Which leaves not much: the local offices were mostly elected at the time of the primary, and there are no statewide offices in play. Usually there are constitutional amendments to vote against, at least.

    Kishnevi (fe0b52)

  71. BL,

    Haven’t you heard? Trump only owns good results.

    I love the fact that Sweden bucked the trend. Just like, under federalism, there are 50 (state) laboratories of democracy, there are 180+ countries who have different strategies for fighting the virus. May the best country win.

    We are fortunate that Isaac Asimov’s desire for a one-world government never came to pass.

    norcal (a5428a)

  72. The United States is not Canada.

    Yet.

    norcal (a5428a)

  73. @66 The next SC judgeships likely to be in line are liberal seats, status quo. And any dem senators from the rocky mountain west or the southwest are not likely to vote for more extreme gun measures. The predictors are for maybe a 49/51 Dem senate, you cant pass a gun bill that even some of the dem senators won’t vote for. Every time there’s a dem up for any election it’s all “THEY WILL TAKE AWAY YOUR GUNS!!” and it never happens. There is no wolf.

    At this point I’m starting to believe it’s a scam by the gun manufacturers to sell more guns and ammo. God knows they get a huge windfall every time that particular piece of propaganda gets shouted across the twitters. Little short on sales this month? Trot out the “DEMS ARE GOING TO TAKE ALL YOUR GUNS!!1!” piece again.

    Nic (896fdf)

  74. Nic @73,

    That is a good point about Dem senators from gun-loving states.

    As for the Supreme Court, I wouldn’t be so sure about the liberal seats being up next. RBG might turn out to be Keith Richards, while Clarence Thomas does a Scalia. Better safe than sorry.

    norcal (a5428a)

  75. Re Sweden

    vealed by independent modelers in Sweden that despite adopting more relaxed measures to control the coronavirus, only 7.3% of people in Stockholm had been exposed to the virus by late April. This percentage is actually lower than estimates from several of the hardest hit cities in the world, such as Wuhan, Madrid, and New York, all of which were under lockdown. Moreover, it’s estimated that between 4%-7% of Sweden’s population has been infected to date. This is not materially different from country-wide estimates for France and Spain, two nations that imposed harsh lockdowns.

    As of Friday, May 22nd, 3,925 people have died from Covid-19 in Sweden, a country with a population of 10 million. Neighbors Denmark, Finland and Norway – each with populations about half of Sweden’s – have recorded death tolls of 561, 306 and 235, respectively.

    The number of confirmed cases in Sweden stood at 32,809 on May 22nd, between three and five times higher than neighboring countries. But, it’s likely the Swedish figure vastly undercounts the real number of infections given that the country’s testing rate is remarkably low compared to Western European countries and the U.S.

    Calculated over the entire time period of the pandemic, Sweden’s death rate has been about average among Western countries, though many times higher than its Scandinavian neighbors, and also higher than the U.S.

    Conspicuously, in the past week, based on a rolling seven-day average, Sweden currently has the highest per capita mortality rate in Europe, having overtaken the U.K., Italy and Belgium. In recent weeks, as deaths have decreased significantly in most other European countries, Sweden’s numbers have remained flat.

    The death rate is notable, because Sweden has a relatively low population density, a disproportionate number of single households, and low rates of chronic conditions known to be risk factors for severe Covid-19 illness and death.

    The relatively small percentage of Stockholm residents with antibodies and the comparatively high death rate do cast doubt on Sweden’s policy. Though as a whole the Swedish population sacrificed less than others in the last two months, that hasn’t given the country a leg up in terms of defeating the virus. Moreover, a comparatively open economy hasn’t translated into economic benefits for Swedes. The Swedish economy is contracting at a similar rate to the rest of Europe. For a country as dependent on international trade and finance as Sweden, the recession is mostly a function of the European and global economic recession.

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/joshuacohen/2020/05/23/swedens-gamble-on-coronavirus-has-it-paid-off/#3cb1a4502dcd

    Kishnevi (fe0b52)

  76. I’ll ask for a write-in ballot. I did that in 1992, voted for myself.

    How about voting for None of the Above?

    Bored Lawyer (56c962)

  77. Trot out the “DEMS ARE GOING TO TAKE ALL YOUR GUNS!!1!” piece again.

    They even had news that quoted the gun grabbers, but that had to be fake…

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  78. @77 How many jack-booted feds came to take your guns away in 93-95 or 2009-2011?

    Nic (896fdf)

  79. @65

    Since we are on the topic, let’s talk about the shutdown.

    What I find strange is that many on the right assert that the shutdown was a mistake, and we should have done something more modest, perhaps along the lines of Sweden. And that would have led to less economic damage.

    The point is debatable, but let’s run with it.

    Who is to blame for that wrong decision? They will blame Drs. Faucci and Birx. Bologna.

    The president’s desk is the one where the buck stops. He did not have to listen to their recommendations, or he could have adopted a modified approach. They are experts in public health, but public policy is still set by the political branches.

    A real leader would have pushed back, and would have said, we have to balance the harms from the virus against the harms from a shut down.

    Instead, Trump made noises on Twitter, but for the most part went along with what they said.

    So Trump has to own the decision. If this was a historic mistake that ruined the economy, it was Trump’s historic mistake.

    Bored Lawyer (56c962) — 5/26/2020 @ 4:28 pm

    I wouldn’t be too hard on Trump if this ends up being an overreaction.

    I refuse to believe that Trump wanted to maliciously harm the economy, in such a way that is anathema to his economic policies – one such that we could continually bang the drum that “he personally made it great” (even though thats malarkey).

    This was a novel virus, as in, something we haven’t seen before. I think everyone thought it was prudent to apply mitigation policies for fears of overrunning the healthcare system. That states that are slow to ‘reopen’ would really be on the state’s Governor rather than Trump.

    whembly (c30c83)

  80. The United States is not Canada.

    If only; cable TV there is a-la-carte.

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  81. #18 Bird watching. Yes, sure he was. Is that what they call accosting and filming a woman alone in the park these days? Her dog was unleashed! Gimme a break! She did the right thing to call the police.

    Did you see the video? She was obviously faking panic, and abusing her dog, while the man was standing at a distance, doing nothing but saying go ahead and call the police if she wanted (since he had video to refute whatever tale she would tell). And the way she kept saying “an African America man” was threatening her and her dog (which she was abusing), was disturbing.

    Radegunda (89f220)

  82. Oh, and it seems he didn’t start filming until she threatened to call the police.

    Radegunda (89f220)

  83. No, I have to confess that I have not seen the video. I also assumed that he was a young man, maybe even in his teens. I blame the covid lockdown — jumping to conclusions is all the exercise I get lately.

    nk (1d9030)

  84. nk,

    Belated props on your comment at #1. That was hysterically funny to me! Maybe because I’m from Utah.

    norcal (a5428a)

  85. Thank you, norcal.

    nk (1d9030)

  86. I usually take polls this early with a boulder of salt because they tend to sample registered voters who skew D by a couple of points compared to likely voters. But this poll sampled likely voters, so it has my attention. I’ll still bet Trump wins Utah, but I’ll keep my fingers crossed the trend in Utah portends a national thrashing Trump richly deserves and the country desperately needs.

    lurker (d8c5bc)

  87. 65. Just FYI, Sweden has done MUCH worse than its neighbors.

    Ragspierre (d9bec9)


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