Patterico's Pontifications

5/15/2020

Trump Announces “Operation Warp Speed” And A Goal Of Having A Covid-19 Vaccine By The End Of the Year

Filed under: General — Dana @ 4:25 pm

[guest post by Dana]

President Trump went all out today, announcing an new initiative to work at ‘warp speed’ to develop a Covid-19 vaccine for Americans by the end of the year:

The Trump administration on Friday rolled out a hyper-ambitious plan to develop and manufacture hundreds of millions of Covid-19 vaccine doses by the end of 2020, outlining an aggressive process that, if successful, would shatter conventional wisdom about the typical process for developing vaccines for emerging infectious diseases.

At a Rose Garden press conference, the president and his deputies acknowledged their goal, dubbed “Operation Warp Speed,” was lofty. Trump said the project was “risky and expensive.” Gustave Perna, a four-star general who oversees logistics for the U.S. Army, called the task “Herculean.” Moncef Slaoui, the pharmaceutical executive Trump has appointed to lead the initiative, said the goal was “extremely challenging.”

Operation Warp Speed is "a massive scientific, industrial, and logistical endeavor unlike anything our country has seen since the Manhattan Project." pic.twitter.com/dkfU3vPnnA

— The White House (@WhiteHouse) May 15, 2020

Regarding the cost of the vaccine, Trump claimed that “The last thing anybody’s looking for is profit”.

There have been concerns about the selection of Slaoui to lead the initiative, given his relationship with Moderna and a possible conflict of interest:

According to federal financial disclosures, he still holds over 156,000 Moderna stock options, worth over $10 million at the company’s current stock price, creating a potential conflict of interest if the company’s vaccine is the first to be proven effective.

As noted here, there have been four timelines for the development of a vaccine:

Timeline one: 12 to 18 months, just as the experts — including Fauci — keep saying.

Timeline two: ~12 months or slightly less for full-scale delivery. That’s Esper’s timeline, per the clip.

Timeline three: By Election Day.

Timeline four: Before China announces a vaccine.

I think it goes without saying that if a vaccine could be announced by election day, Trump’s votes would likely increase. And you better believe he would toot his horn over that. But if China comes in with a successful vaccine before the U.S., that certainly has the potential to hurt Trump at the polls.

On Tuesday, Fauci testified before the Senate HELP committee about the development of a vaccine:

“There are a couple of things that are inherent in all vaccine development. First of all, there’s no guarantee that the vaccine is actually going to be effective. I still feel cautiously optimistic that we will have a candidate that will give some degree of efficacy.

Given Fauci’s projections and those of Operation Warp Speed, it wasn’t surprising to see him, along with Dr. Birx and Francis Collins, the director of the National Institutes of Health, sidelined during the announcement. And they were the only ones wearing masks too.

Trump also presented a we’re-all-in-this-together face with regard to other countries – including China – working on a vaccine:

“We want to get to the solution. We know exactly where the other countries are, and we’ll be very happy if they are able to do it. We’ll help them with delivery, we’ll help them with it in every way we can.”

Here’s hoping that a vaccine can indeed be developed and manufactured by the end of the year.

–Dana

Comments (81)

81 Responses to “Trump Announces “Operation Warp Speed” And A Goal Of Having A Covid-19 Vaccine By The End Of the Year”

Hello.
Dana (0feb77) — 5/15/2020 @ 4:25 pm
Who is “He” supposed to be Trump? If so, are you honestly suggesting Trump selected a contractor because he owns 10 million in stock – held in trust – when he’s worth 3,000 million dollars? i don’t know why anyone would care about this. The important issue is when can we develop an vaccine. Trump wants it by the end of the year, just like FDR wanted the A-Bomb before the War ended and JFK wanted us to land on the moon by the end of the decade (aka 1969). IOW, Trump is setting a goal. Of course, this means that Trump is promising it, or Trump is going against Facui, or Trump is being unscientific. Because Trump just can’t set a goal, he has to be wrong.
rcocean (846d30) — 5/15/2020 @ 4:35 pm
Warp speed is still slower than the 1976 swine flu vaccine.

And they culd get to a treatment – artificial antibodies – on a faster timetable.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/three-ways-to-make-coronavirus-drugs-in-a-hurry1 <

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/05/race-antibodies-stop-new-coronavirus

Once one or several neutralizing antibodies have been identified, antibody-producing B cells can be engineered to make them in quantity. These so-called monoclonal antibodies could treat or even prevent COVID-19.

The Vanderbilt-AstraZeneca team is far from the only group trying to identify or engineer monoclonals against SARS-CoV-2. Unlike the many repurposed drugs now being tested in COVID-19 patients, including the modestly effective remdesivir, the immune proteins specifically target this virus. Whereas some groups hope to sieve a neutralizing antibody (a “neut”) from the blood of a survivor like Dr. X, others are trying to produce a neut in mice by injecting them with the spike protein. Still others aim to re-engineer an existing antibody or even create one directly from DNA sequences.

Many researchers are optimistic that antibodies will, relatively quickly, prove their worth as a preventive or remedy that buys the world time until a vaccine arrives—if it does. “We’ve got at least 50—and probably more we don’t know about—companies and academic labs that are all racing horses,” says immunologist Erica Ollmann Saphire of the La Jolla Institute for Immunology, who leads an effort to coordinate and evaluate these candidates. Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, which developed a cocktail of three monoclonal antibodies that worked against the Ebola virus—a notoriously difficult disease to treat—may be out of the gates first with a candidate monoclonal drug entering clinical trials as soon as next month.

Trump is listening too much to Fauci who is pushng vaccines and ignoring ther aroaches because they are not traditional.

Who needs to settle what’s the very best selection of antibodies?
Sammy Finkelman (20d02d) — 5/15/2020 @ 4:42 pm
@2 I think you misread. It days that Slaoui still owns the stock and stock options and that is why they are worried he might have a conflict of interest.

While I’m glad that they hired someone who is at least vaguely in the wide circle of health related things to oversee the project, why aren’t they hiring a doctor or scientist? This man does not oversee anything being developed directly, all he wants to know is if it will be profitable. That’s his job, run a profitable company. Since we don’t need the vaccine to be made profitable, we just need to have it developed, maybe someone who knows stuff about THAT should be in charge.
Nic (896fdf) — 5/15/2020 @ 4:48 pm
*says
Nic (896fdf) — 5/15/2020 @ 4:48 pm
he’s worth 3,000 million dollars? i

Is he? Trump’s a con artist who probably is much wealthier now that he’s profiting from his office, but on election day may have not actually had any net worth. He funnels a lot of money for Russians but is he actually wealthy? Dude couldn’t even make a profit with a casino.

But all that aside, I’m glad Trump is taking a productive path here. He should have been doing this in February at the latest, but you can’t go back. Announcing a massive push towards a vaccine gives people hope.

I don’t give this any more credit than Trump’s fabled wall, his balanced budget, his ISIS strategy. Trump makes a lot of bold promises that his supporters always explain we were stupid to believe. Well guess what Trump fans? Nobody believes him now.
Dustin (22da4f) — 5/15/2020 @ 4:49 pm
Many researchers are optimistic that antibodies will, relatively quickly, prove their worth as a preventive or remedy that buys the world time until a vaccine arrives—if it does. “

In other words, it’s a treatment for people who have gotten infected, not a prophylactic in the way a vaccine is.

The vaccine expert on MSNBC (didn’t get his name) said that he couldn’t imagine a way to get the vaccine within year’s end simply because getting all the necessary data to know that it works and to know what its side effects are takes longer than that. Only possibility was making the first wave of vaccinations serve as the clinical trial to get that data.
Kishnevi (126082) — 5/15/2020 @ 4:50 pm
Since we don’t need the vaccine to be made profitable, we just need to have it developed, maybe someone who knows stuff about THAT should be in charge.

My presumption is that Trump is focused on mass manufacture and distribution of the vaccine once it is found. A pharmaceutical executive presumably knows what’s needed.
Kishnevi (126082) — 5/15/2020 @ 4:53 pm
First, a vaccine normally takes between 10 and 15 years, Phase 1–2 to 3 years, Phase 2–3 to 5 years, and Phase 3–6 to 10 years. Of course, sometimes it takes a bit longer, like infinity (HIV, Hepatitis), the fastest ever was 4 years.

We’re pulling out all the stops There are a number in Phase 1, One in Phase 2, zero in Phase 3. You don’t start production typically until midway through Phase 3.

So, it would require an honest to god literal miracle to hit 1 year from today, to complete Phase 2. If you’re going to bet, bet on 2023-2025 to finish a Phase 3. Hopefully, one of them actually works. So for those junior high schoolers, if we’re great, we’ll have a vaccine for you before you graduate, from high school hopefully, medical school likely.

But Trump’s plan is based on nothing other than hope, desperation, and bluster. No reputable scientist will even commit to 18 months.
Colonel Klink (Ret) (305827) — 5/15/2020 @ 4:57 pm
@8 Maybe so. You are certainly being more charitable than I. I’m afraid that at this point my view is that Trump just hires people he thinks are cool or who might personally benefit him in some way.
Nic (896fdf) — 5/15/2020 @ 5:00 pm
Slaoui’s professional credentials look impressive. He’s a scientist by training, with a PhD in molecular biology, and has led the development many drugs and vaccines over his career.
Dave (1bb933) — 5/15/2020 @ 5:03 pm
@11 Oh good. That is much more hopeful.
Nic (896fdf) — 5/15/2020 @ 5:04 pm
Warp speed is still slower than the 1976 swine flu vaccine.

The 76 swine flu was an attempt to shortcut the process, and was a disaster. In fact, it’s one of the reasons why the FDA has the rules as they exist, because of the shortcuts taken in 76 created a massive problem.

Some of the American public’s hesitance to embrace vaccines — the flu vaccine in particular — can be attributed to the long-lasting effects of a failed 1976 political campaign to mass-vaccinate the public against a strain of the swine flu virus. This government-led campaign was widely viewed as a debacle and put an irreparable dent in future public health initiatives, as well as negatively influenced the public’s perception of both the flu and the flu shot in this country.

In the late winter of 1976, a completely novel strain of influenza was causing hundreds of respiratory infections at Fort Dix, an army post located in central New Jersey. Initially, this virus appeared to be closely genetically related to the 1918 flu pandemic that killed over a 100 million people globally, a pandemic that shared the very same Fort Dix as one its points of origin. These striking coincidences, along with the virus’s “sustained person-to-person spread,” prompted global public health officials to start planning for what could conceivably burgeon into a series of large and deadly outbreaks, if not an actual pandemic, in the upcoming winter (1).

But while the World Health Organization adopted a cautious “wait and see” policy to monitor the virus’s pattern of disease and to track the number of emerging infections, President Gerald Ford’s administration embarked on a zealous campaign to vaccinate every American with brisk efficiency. In late March, President Ford announced in a press conference the government’s plan to vaccinate “every man, woman, and child in the United States” (1). Emergency legislation for the “National Swine Flu Immunization Program” was signed shortly thereafter on April 15th, 1976 and six months later high profile photos of celebrities and political figures receiving the flu jab appeared in the media. Even President Ford himself was photographed in his office receiving his shot from the White House doctor.

Within 10 months, nearly 25% of the US population, or 45 million citizens, was vaccinated, but serious problems persisted throughout the process (2). Due to the urgency of creating new immunizations for a novel virus, the government used an attenuated “live virus” for the vaccine instead of a inactivated or “killed” form, increasing the probability of adverse side effects among susceptible groups of people receiving the vaccination. Furthermore, prominent American scientists and health professionals began questioning the campaign’s large expense and its drain on scarce public health resources (2).

With President Ford’s reelection campaign looming on the horizon, the campaign increasingly appeared politically motivated. The rationale for mass vaccination seemed to stem from only the barest of biological reasoning — it turned out that the flu wasn’t even related to the virus that caused the grisly 1918 epidemic and, indeed, those who were infected with the flu only suffered from a mild illness while the vaccine, for the reasons stated above, resulted in over four-hundred and fifty people developing the paralyzing Guillain-Barré syndrome. Meanwhile, outside the United States’ borders, the flu never mushroomed into the anticipated public health disaster. It was the pandemic that never was. The New York Times went so far as to dub the whole affair a “fiasco,” damning one of the largest and probably one of the most well-intentioned public health initiatives by the US government (1).
Colonel Klink (Ret) (305827) — 5/15/2020 @ 5:05 pm
If you make a vaccine that works, the profit will take care of itself. Give the vaccine for free, but people have to watch four State Farm ads while getting vaccinated.
Fred (25e171) — 5/15/2020 @ 5:08 pm
But Trump’s plan is based on nothing other than hope, desperation, and bluster. No reputable scientist will even commit to 18 months.

Colonel Klink (Ret) (305827) — 5/15/2020 @ 4:57 pm

It’s like all those grand promises in the GOP primary that nobody could match.

Trump is doing what he always does. Only this time he’s trying to pull a con on the nation to give her false hope during a pandemic.
Dustin (d59cff) — 5/15/2020 @ 5:13 pm
When you water the lawn, you water the weeds, too. The faster we get the vaccine, the better. As for Trump, white vinegar works just as well as Round Up.
nk (1d9030) — 5/15/2020 @ 5:36 pm
Trump is doing what he always does. Only this time he’s trying to pull a con on the nation to give her false hope during a pandemic.

I’m gonna play against type here and say I think a Manhattan/Apollo style crash project is the right thing to do. We’re America; we’re supposed to rise to a challenge.

*If* he puts good people in charge, gives them whatever they need to succeed, and shuts up while they do their jobs.

Of course, that last part about keeping his mouth shut is always where the wheels fall off.

To the extent he continues to peddle magical thinking, snake oil and unicorn farts, he will continue to deserve harsh criticism.
Dave (1bb933) — 5/15/2020 @ 5:37 pm
@2 I think you misread. It days that Slaoui still owns the stock and stock options and that is why they are worried he might have a conflict of interest.

Thanks. I misunderstood. But I still don’t care. A potential conflict of interest – may or may not become a real one. When he does something that shows favoritism, I’ll get excited.
rcocean (846d30) — 5/15/2020 @ 6:04 pm
I’m gonna play against type here and say I think a Manhattan/Apollo style crash project is the right thing to do. We’re America; we’re supposed to rise to a challenge.

*If* he puts good people in charge, gives them whatever they need to succeed, and shuts up while they do their jobs.

Of course, that last part about keeping his mouth shut is always where the wheels fall off.

To the extent he continues to peddle magical thinking, snake oil and unicorn farts, he will continue to deserve harsh criticism.

Dave (1bb933) — 5/15/2020 @ 5:37 pm

I agree that Trump can be much more presidential by focusing on productive, massive projects to get us our of this problem through great works.

I just can’t get into it because it’s such a grand promise from a guy whose fans tell me I shouldn’t have held Trump to any of his other grand BS promises.

But compared to chloroquine (Trump fans are awful quiet about that now, huh?) yeah a vaccine research drive is much smarter.
Dustin (d59cff) — 5/15/2020 @ 6:40 pm
I’m gonna play against type here and say I think a Manhattan/Apollo style crash project is the right thing to do.

So when do we get to lock down all the scientists under military guard in the high desert of New Mexico?
JVW (54fd0b) — 5/15/2020 @ 6:45 pm
I hope this works faster then anyone expects.
Time123 (7cca75) — 5/15/2020 @ 6:50 pm
@2 I think you misread. It days that Slaoui still owns the stock and stock options and that is why they are worried he might have a conflict of interest.

Thanks. I misunderstood. But I still don’t care. A potential conflict of interest – may or may not become a real one. When he does something that shows favoritism, I’ll get excited.

rcocean (846d30) — 5/15/2020 @ 6:04 pm

First, I doubt you will. I expect you will decide what reflects best on Trump and go with that.
Second, the reason we look at conflicts ahead of time is that it can be hard to tell when it’s actually happening.
Third, for something this important we wouldn’t want to the distraction so it might be best to address it up front.
Time123 (7cca75) — 5/15/2020 @ 6:54 pm
Forth, if there were a conflict amid progress, the pressure to cover it up would be enormous.
Ragspierre (d9bec9) — 5/15/2020 @ 7:20 pm
Good aff
Time123 (9f42ee) — 5/15/2020 @ 8:06 pm
Do not muzzle the ox that treads the grain. Better to give the job to somebody who’s good at it and gotten rich from doing it, than to the First Lady’s college roommate who’s strictly from hunger (and you know what I’m talking about).
nk (1d9030) — 5/15/2020 @ 8:49 pm
The problem is that Bill Gates can’t develop a mind-controlling vaccine nanobot in six months. Took him 20 years to get Windows working ok.
Dustin (d59cff) — 5/15/2020 @ 9:31 pm
The problem is that Bill Gates can’t develop a mind-controlling vaccine nanobot in six months. Took him 20 years to get Windows working ok.

You obviously haven’t watched enough Star Trek. This sort of problem is routinely solved in an hour, with time to spare for commercial breaks.

The answer is to build a time machine, travel to the future, buy out the world’s supply of the vaccine a few years from now, and bring it back. While evading pursuit by the Temporal Police from the 31st century, of course.

Or maybe to create an army of hundreds of Fauci’s on the holodeck and wire them together into a collective hive mind with Borg technology. That could work too.
Dave (1bb933) — 5/15/2020 @ 9:54 pm
The answer is to build a time machine, travel to the future, buy out the world’s supply of the vaccine a few years from now, and bring it back. While evading pursuit by the Temporal Police from the 31st century, of course.

Either that or Spock makes a random conjecture, Kirk raises an eyebrow, and Mr. Scott and Bones huddle together and build the thing that is needed.

I’m not going to do a STTNG equivalent, and just absolutely forget about any other of the series.
JVW (54fd0b) — 5/15/2020 @ 10:12 pm
It turns out that the whole coronavirus pandemic was a plot hatched by the Boys From Brazil to distract from the discovery of Trump’s birth certificate which shows that he was born in an SS house for unwed mothers (yes, there were such) in the last days of WWII and placed by Otto Skorzeny’s Operation Werewolf with the Trumps to someday resurrect the Thousand Year Reich.
nk (1d9030) — 5/15/2020 @ 10:25 pm
just absolutely forget about any other of the series.

Seven of Nine was legit.
Dave (1bb933) — 5/15/2020 @ 10:26 pm
The prospect of a big, fat profit will spur the development of a vaccine more than anything else. Remember how fast the freeways were re-built in LA after the Northridge earthquake? It was because of monetary incentives. To expect people to hustle out of the kindness of their hearts is a Marxist dream.
norcal (a5428a) — 5/15/2020 @ 10:35 pm
and placed by Otto Skorzeny’s Operation Werewolf with the Trumps to someday resurrect the Thousand Year Reich

But the joke was on them, because the day before Skorzeny and his men arrived, Russian commandos swapped the real SS baby with the tragic result of a failed Nazi eugenics experiment involving simians, and spirited the last purebred Aryan specimen of the master race off to Moscow. Where he eventually rose to prominence in the KGB and finally presidency of the Russian Federation.

And the rest, as they say, is history.
Dave (1bb933) — 5/15/2020 @ 10:41 pm
The prospect of a big, fat profit will spur the development of a vaccine more than anything else. Remember how fast the freeways were re-built in LA after the Northridge earthquake? It was because of monetary incentives. To expect people to hustle out of the kindness of their hearts is a Marxist dream.

norcal (a5428a) — 5/15/2020 @ 10:35 pm

True. And think of the liability. It is OK to expect to be very wealthy if you manage to cure a problem that ruined the economy of the world.

But I don’t blame Trump for deflecting that point. I don’t even mind that he’s got an insider running the effort. If only Trump really was the brash guy who breaks the rules and gets amazing results that his commercials told us he was, he would be the perfect leader for this crisis. I don’t think he will surprise me but I hope he does, as I always have.
Dustin (d59cff) — 5/15/2020 @ 11:28 pm
This is a joke, right? Trump pretending to be a leader in an emergency. Who does this guy think he is, Captain Kirk? Warp Speed! Give me a break.

The original Star Trek series only lasted for three seasons. That was back when there were 44 episodes a season; today there are 22 episodes a season, followed by reruns. But enough talk of television programming then and now.

Star Trek was media propaganda to support the Apollo space missions. Starship Enterprise = Free Enterprise, get it? James T. Kirk = John F. Kennedy. The crew aboard the Enterprise was more than multi-ethnic. It had a half Vulcan (space alien)/half human genius on it.

By the way, did you know that the hand sign Spock used when he said, “Live long and pros[er,” actually came from Judaism? Yeah, Leonard Nimoy was a Jew. He went to mass every week, and the practice was for worshippers to bow the heads and close their eyes, while the rabbi walked amongst the crowd, saying a prayer. One day, young Leonard opened his eyes, and that was the hand sign the rabbi was giving. Years later he brought it to the show. Little known fact the Vulcan had sign is an ancient Jewish tradition.

The crew also had a Scottish engineer, Russian and Japanese technicians, and a black female telecommunicator. And of course, an old Southern country doctor. There was also the computer.

It’s America conquering space! The Federation represented the United Nations. The prime directive was not to interfere, which Kirk ignored regularly.

The series inspired millions. Gene Roddenberry was a visionary. He saw the future. The kids who grew up watching Star Trek developed the modern world.

The communicator became the cell phone. The tricorder became the laptop. The computer, with voice activation, became the home security system.

It’s all so obvious, and all so inconsequential. What good is any of this doing us now?
Gawain's Ghost (b25cd1) — 5/16/2020 @ 3:12 am
Gawain’s, love ya brother, but Jews do not attend mass. Some calculate mass…of stars, nano particles, angels on pin heads, etc. But they don’t attend mass.
Ragspierre (d9bec9) — 5/16/2020 @ 4:50 am
There have been eight United States Navy ships named Enterprise since 1775, and the ninth is on the way. The one in service when Star Trek was made, the eighth, was the first nuclear-powered aircraft carrier, launched in 1960. Its predecessor, the first aircraft carrier named Enterprise, launched in 1936, saw distinguished service in WWII, from Pearl Harbor to Leyte, with 20 battle stars and many other citations.

Facts.
nk (1d9030) — 5/16/2020 @ 5:13 am
Obversely, the first real-world nuclear submarine, the USS Nautilus, was named after Jules Verne’s science fiction one, demonstrating that the U.S. Navy can be more imaginative, or at least more erudite, than Hollywood.
nk (1d9030) — 5/16/2020 @ 5:47 am
No, nk. The Navy named the sub after a shellfish. When asked later by reports about the Jules Verne connection, the Navy looked confused for a moment and then said, “Oh, um, yeah. We totally named the boat after that book that Laverne wrote. Totally…”.
Ragspierre (d9bec9) — 5/16/2020 @ 5:55 am
Argue it with Mrs. Blatt, my fifth-grade teacher. She’s the one who pointed out the connection between the real world ships and the science fiction ones. And she was Jewish, too, but if she ever told us about the four-finger “V”, I’ve forgotten it.
nk (1d9030) — 5/16/2020 @ 6:16 am
Five-finger “V”. “The thumb is also a finger.” — Get Smart, Bronzefinger
nk (1d9030) — 5/16/2020 @ 6:18 am
The WWII-era Enterprise (CV-6) was the most legendary and decorated ship of the war, in any navy.

She only missed two major actions out of more than twenty in the Pacific War. The Japanese inaccurately reported her sunk her three different times, inspiring her nickname “The Grey Ghost”.

Over the course of the war, the Enterprise and her planes shot down 911 enemy aircraft, sank 71 ships and damaged or destroyed 192 more.

In short, a bottomless can of whoop-ass.
Dave (1bb933) — 5/16/2020 @ 6:24 am
The original USS Enterprise was a plucky little schooner (14 guns) that captured a 14 gun Corsair in 1801 and the Brig HMS Boxer in 1812. The 14 gun Corsair was from Tripoli, and when the USS Enterprise captured the ship:

After administering to the relief of the distresses of the wounded Tripolitans, and the wants of the crew, Capt. Sterrett ordered the ship of the enemy to be completely dismantled. Her masts were accordingly all cut down, and her guns thrown overboard. A spar was raised, on which was fixed, as a flag, a tattered sail; and in this condition the ship was dismissed.

On the arrival of the Corsair at Tripoli, so strong was the sensations of shame and indignation excited there, that the Bey ordered the wounded captain to be mounted on a Jack Ass, and paraded thro’ the streets as an object of public scorn. After which he received 500 lashes.

rcocean (846d30) — 5/16/2020 @ 7:49 am
If so, are you honestly suggesting Trump selected a contractor because he owns 10 million in stock – held in trust – when he’s worth 3,000 million dollars?

Why is that such a detestable suggestion? He already demonstrated that he’s more interested in his personal wealth than in his country when he tried to work a real estate deal with a hostile foreign power while running for president.

“This is going to go away without a vaccine.”
Donald J. Trump, May 8, 2020

“Another essential pillar of our strategy to keep America open is the development of effective treatments and vaccines as quickly as possible.’
Donald J. Trump, just a week later
Paul Montagu (b3f51b) — 5/16/2020 @ 8:44 am
He also said

“I just want to make something clear. It’s very important. Vaccine or no vaccine, we’re back. And we’re starting a process.”

So it really doesn’t matter to him if there is a vaccine, that’s why the reopening is blowing through every piece of advice from every qualified scientist. They delayed for weeks, and watered down the CDC reopening plan til after half the states are already opening. Of course, you can read the original one, with those, 2 states meet the criteria today. Although with the watered down “recommendations”, 6 states meet the criteria, some regions in some states meet them, like NY’s and Ohio’s plans.
Colonel Klink (Ret) (305827) — 5/16/2020 @ 9:05 am
CNN Newsroom
@CNNnewsroom

Texas is seeing the highest number of new coronavirus cases and deaths just two weeks after it officially reopened. @JohnKingCNN explores the trend in Texas as the debate on risk of reopening continues.
https://cnn.it/360kQqL
__ _

Destructive Chemistry
@DestructiveChem
·
Replying to @CNNNewsroom

Because they’re doubling the rate of testing. Show the positivity rate (cases/tests)
__ _

Andrew
@andyndelaney
·
This ignores the vast increase rate in testing, the declining positive rate, and the decrease in hospitalization. Can you explain why this is ignored? (We know why, but the pretext would be interesting.)
__ _

gopher handstone
@ougher
·
Encouraging news from Texas: Two weeks after @GovAbbott let retail, restaurants & some other businesses partially reopen there has been no statewide spike in cases, despite big increase in testing. Hospitalization rates are flat, too. Data here: https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/ed483ecd702b4298ab01e8b9cafc8b83……
__ _
harkin (8f4a6f) — 5/16/2020 @ 9:21 am
44. Every qualified scientist. The idea that some scientists might disagree doesn’t matter, because those who disagree automatically disqualify themselves from serious discussion, amiright? Gee, where have I heard that before?
Gryph (08c844) — 5/16/2020 @ 9:26 am
Some adults never grow up but retain childish emotions and reasoning as adults. [List included but explanations omitted; Please click the link for the full article]:

Can You Spot 10 Signs of a Childish Adult?

Emotional escalations: Young children often cry, get mad, or outwardly appear petulant and pouting. Grownups seldom do.

Blaming: When things go wrong, young children look to blame someone. Grownups look to fix the problem.

Lies: When there’s a situation that’s uncomfortable, young children might lie to stay out of trouble. Grownups deal with reality, reliably speaking the truth.

Name-calling: Children call each other names. Adults seek to understand issues. Adults do not make ad hominen attacks, that is, attacks on people’s personal traits. Instead, they attack the problem. They do not disrespect others with mean labels.

Impulsivity—or as therapists say, “poor impulse control”: Children strike out impulsively when they feel hurt or mad. They speak recklessly or take impulsive action without pausing to think about the potential consequences. Similarly, instead of listening to others’ viewpoints, they impulsively interrupt them. Adults pause, resisting the impulse to shoot out hurtful words or actions. They calm themselves. They then think through the problem, seeking more information and analyzing options.

Bullying: A child who is physically larger than other children his age can walk up to another child who is playing with a toy he would like and simply take it. The other child may say nothing lest the bully turn on them with hostility. In many cases, it’s safer just to let a bully have what he wants. Adults, on the other hand, respect boundaries: Yours is yours and mine is mine.

Budding narcissism: In an earlier post, I coined the term tall man syndrome for one way that narcissism can develop. If children—or adults—can get whatever they want because they are bigger, stronger, or richer, they become at risk for learning that the rules don’t apply to them. Whatever they want, they take. This narcissistic tendency may initially look like strength. But in reality, it reflects a serious weakness: being unable to see beyond the self.

Immature defenses: Freud coined the term defense mechanisms for ways in which individuals protect themselves and/or get what they want. Adults use defense mechanisms like listening to others’ concerns as well as to their own. They then engage in collaborative problem-solving. These responses to difficulties signal psychological maturity. Children tend to regard the best defense as a strong offense. While that defensive strategy may work in football, attacking anyone who expresses a viewpoint different from what they want is, in life, a primitive defense mechanism. Another primitive defense is denial: “I didn’t say that!” or “I never did that!” when in fact they did say or do the thing they claim not to have done. Sound childlike to you?

No observing ego—that is, no ability to see, acknowledge, and learn from their mistakes: When emotionally mature adults “lose their cool” and express anger inappropriately, they soon after, with their “observing ego,” realize that their outburst was inappropriate. That is, they can see with hindsight that their behavior was out of line with their value system. They can see if their outburst has been, as therapists say, ego dystonic (against their value system).
DRJ (15874d) — 5/16/2020 @ 9:28 am
Justin Amash
@justinamash

After much reflection, I’ve concluded that circumstances don’t lend themselves to my success as a candidate for president this year, and therefore I will not be a candidate.
__
harkin (8f4a6f) — 5/16/2020 @ 11:52 am
Every qualified scientist. The idea that some scientists might disagree doesn’t matter, because those who disagree automatically disqualify themselves from serious discussion, amiright? Gee, where have I heard that before?

Interesting, in that you’re linking to climate change because…what…why….

It’s a Gryph(t), if it’s not a lie, diversion, or name calling, you’d not be posting.
Colonel Klink (Ret) (305827) — 5/16/2020 @ 1:04 pm
I’ve been shopping for a new/newer vehicle, and I’ve decided on a Mustang. In my research I noticed that Ford is still making a version of the Mustang called the California Special. This is very amusing; it feels more like an anachronism than anything “cool”. California just doesn’t have the same cachet that it used to.
norcal (a5428a) — 5/16/2020 @ 3:34 pm
norcal, those GTs look sharp It’s probably a great time to get a deal. I’ve been looking at F-150s but I can’t justify the expense.
Dustin (d59cff) — 5/16/2020 @ 3:48 pm
Hey, NorCal… I would imagine there are some smokin’ deals out there. I have so far resisted giving my ’81 X1/9 to our youngest son, so that I don’t feel guilty about buying a 2018 Alfa Romeo Giulia Quadrifoglio.

We love our home, but one with a 6 car garage would be more to my liking.
Colonel Haiku (2601c0) — 5/16/2020 @ 4:01 pm
That’s exactly what I’m going to get, Dustin. A GT. 460 horsepower, baby! I probably won’t get it until things open up more, however. There’s no sense in getting a new car if I can’t really go anywhere and have fun. It’ll just sit in my garage and depreciate.

Also, my current car just won’t die, and it feels a little extravagant to get a new car when the old one still runs well. It’s a 1998 Lexus SC 400, and it has 194,000 miles on it. Damn thing is bulletproof!
norcal (a5428a) — 5/16/2020 @ 4:04 pm
We rented a 2016 Mustang convertible when we were in Maui, it was a good car. The only complaint with the car was the 4 cylinder Ecotech motor… unless I had my foot in it, it felt and sounded like my wife’s ’71 Pinto did back in the day. The car handled great, though.
Colonel Haiku (2601c0) — 5/16/2020 @ 4:06 pm
gigo

https://legalinsurrection.com/2020/05/imperial-college-model-used-to-justify-uk-and-u-s-lockdowns-deemed-buggy-mess-total-unreliable-by-experts/
narciso (7404b5) — 5/16/2020 @ 4:08 pm
With a 460hp V8, you mos def wouldn’t have that problem.
Colonel Haiku (2601c0) — 5/16/2020 @ 4:08 pm
You have a ’81 X1/9, Haiku? What color? At 2,040 pounds, I’ll bet it handles like a dream.

I almost have a six-car garage. My garage holds two vehicles. In front of my garage is a carport, which holds two. The driveway hold another two without even encroaching on the sidewalk.

Even so, I have just two vehicles. The Lexus, and a Jeep Wrangler. That first winter in Reno made me scramble to get a 4WD vehicle.
norcal (a5428a) — 5/16/2020 @ 4:12 pm
That’s exactly what I’m going to get, Dustin. A GT. 460 horsepower, baby! I probably won’t get it until things open up more, however. There’s no sense in getting a new car if I can’t really go anywhere and have fun. It’ll just sit in my garage and depreciate.

Also, my current car just won’t die, and it feels a little extravagant to get a new car when the old one still runs well. It’s a 1998 Lexus SC 400, and it has 194,000 miles on it. Damn thing is bulletproof!

norcal (a5428a) — 5/16/2020 @ 4:04 pm

God bless America. 460 horsepower is plenty.

I’m in the same boat in that my current car, an old Honda, just does its job without complaint. One new car payment on a $60k F-150 would keep the old Honda on the road for a decade. But the damn car is boring.
Dustin (d59cff) — 5/16/2020 @ 4:15 pm
It’s a shade of red… “rosso” per the Italians. Yes, they handle like a go-kart, mid-engine cars are a blast.

That Alfa I mentioned has 505 hp, the car’s a monster. I’ve driven the 4 cylinder version which has a little under 300hp and a little over that in torque, and even that was scary.
Colonel Haiku (2601c0) — 5/16/2020 @ 4:21 pm
I looked up that Alfa. Positively beastly!
norcal (a5428a) — 5/16/2020 @ 4:29 pm
Dustin and Haiku, I know there are good deals out there, but I’m sure I’ll end up ordering a Mustang from the factory, and in that case the deal might not be so favorable. I want a specific set of features. GT, Velocity Blue, automatic, leather, navigation, upgraded audio, 18 inch wheels (I can’t stand low profile tires). Alas, that combination does not exist on any dealer lot in the country.
norcal (a5428a) — 5/16/2020 @ 4:34 pm
That’s exactly what I’m going to get, Dustin. A GT. 460 horsepower, baby! I probably won’t get it until things open up more, however. There’s no sense in getting a new car if I can’t really go anywhere and have fun. It’ll just sit in my garage and depreciate.

I bought a GT350R last year, it was awesome. I took it to 2 track days and quickly found out that was too much for me. I just went back to my e36 M3, I don’t scare myself in it.

You can get a regular GT now with the factory performance pack that gives it the 480hp from the Bullit, that would be more than adequate, you know, like significantly faster than a Ferrari 456.
Colonel Klink (Ret) (305827) — 5/16/2020 @ 4:37 pm
I didn’t know that I could get the Bullitt horsepower in a regular GT from the factory, Klink. Thanks for the info!

You had a GT350R? I am drooling! I love the fact that Ford got to 525 HP with normal aspiration. I would like to get a GT350, but it’s not offered in an automatic. Plus, I’m not going to pay dealer mark up.

I have to remind myself that, whether it’s 460 or 480 HP, I’m getting more horsepower than any car from the musclecar era.

It’s funny that you scared yourself with it. Have you considered getting professional driving instruction?
norcal (a5428a) — 5/16/2020 @ 4:45 pm
Hondas and Toyotas are – with a few minor exceptions – so reliable and bulletproof that they are difficult to part with.

I bought an ’04 Civic Si new, had it for 3.5 years. It was a good car, no issues, but yeah, kinda boring. I sold it and bought a new ’07 Nissan 350Z and ended up missing the Honda. I got 3 speeding tickets in 1 year in the Z, and somehow charmed my way out of a 4th by humoring a female CHP officer. The letters from the California DMV grew increasingly belligerent until I realized it was time I got rid of that one.
Colonel Haiku (2601c0) — 5/16/2020 @ 4:46 pm
I’ve lived, owned and driven enough cars that I know this is the Golden Age of the Automobile.
Colonel Haiku (2601c0) — 5/16/2020 @ 4:48 pm
In that case, Haiku, you should stick with a Pinto. I doubt it could even get over the speed limit!

I have received two speeding tickets in CA in the last three years. I was freaked out about my insurance going up. After making some inquiries, I discovered that CA does not notify Nevada about speeding tickets, unless one is a commercial driver. So my insurance stayed low! (I have no tickets in the past three years in Nevada.)
norcal (a5428a) — 5/16/2020 @ 4:53 pm
Yeah, my neighbor is a Porsche Cup championship driver, and I’ve done SCCA since the early 90’s. It’s not so much the track driving, it was that it was an order of magnitude faster than my e36. I’ve had that since new from BMW of San Francisco at the end of 95. The speed into and out of corners was just mental on mid-Ohio, a track that I know well, it was like I’d never driven it before, all the braking and turn in points were way off.

The best thing about the GTR is the noise, flat plane crank, 526hp with a 8250 redline, it’s just wondrous. TBH, I think it would have been better with the GT500’s dual clutch, I’m old and a robotic manual makes more sense most of the time, it’s faster than me, and easier. Maybe after the refresh.

I lived on Sacramento between Pierce and Steiner until 99 and had that M3 the whole time, it was kind of a pain in the City.
Colonel Klink (Ret) (305827) — 5/16/2020 @ 5:08 pm
Naw, NorCal… got rid of the Z after going ticketless for 3 years and got a car that’s engaging to dive, quick, great exhaust note, handles well and – most importantly – goes under the radar. No tickets in 12 years!
Colonel Haiku (2601c0) — 5/16/2020 @ 5:08 pm
Klink,

I wonder why they don’t offer the GT350 with the transmission from the GT500. I want normal aspiration and convenience in the same car, dammit!

BMW is a brand I’m very fond of, but it’s a little too rich for my blood. I’m willing to pay a little more to get a BMW instead of a Mustang, but not 40K to 50K more (to get equivalent horsepower). Plus, I hear that servicing BMWs is quite expensive.
norcal (a5428a) — 5/16/2020 @ 6:17 pm
BMW is a brand I’m very fond of, but it’s a little too rich for my blood. I’m willing to pay a little more to get a BMW instead of a Mustang, but not 40K to 50K more (to get equivalent horsepower). Plus, I hear that servicing BMWs is quite expensive.

The development cycle didn’t work out for the 350’s, the Ford GT and Mustang GT500 were later in the cycle, and the DSG for the GT was a primary driver since it’s a race car, and costs $480k. The 10 speed auto will actually take the torque of the 350’s, it’s a combo of the torque/hp at 8250 rpm’s. I’ll just say that the auto on the refresh will be DSG only, it doesn’t make sense to have 3 transmissions, maybe it will be slushbox, and DSG, with no manual.

I’ve actually been pretty impressed with the ecoboost one’s, they’re easily quicker than my M3, but that’s only got about 250 at the wheels, it’s hard to overdrive it.

I just drove a 2021 Supra with the 2.0T, and I actually think its more fun than the 3.0T. The 3.0T is much much faster, I think that thing is something like 0-60 in 3.2 seconds, vs 4.6ish, but the 2.0T was just better rounded.
Colonel Klink (Ret) (305827) — 5/16/2020 @ 9:30 pm
According to this source, it’s 3.9 versus 5.0 for the two versions of the Supra. I like the Supra as well, but it’s more expensive than the Mustang, and while V8s are still around, I want to get one. There’s nothing like the sound of a V8.

https://www.automobilemag.com/news/toyota-supra-four-six-cylinder-best-engine-model-comparison-price-specs-features-performance-0-60-top-speed/
norcal (a5428a) — 5/16/2020 @ 11:17 pm
From Science magazine article posted May. 5, 2020 , 6:10 PM

Many researchers are optimistic that antibodies will, relatively quickly, prove their worth as a preventive or remedy that buys the world time until a vaccine arrives—if it does. “

7. Kishnevi (126082) — 5/15/2020 @ 4:50 pm

In other words, it’s a treatment for people who have gotten infected, not a prophylactic in the way a vaccine is.

That’s right, although it can also be used as a short lived prophylactic. You could give it to people who work in hospitals, or people about to board an airplane in a location where the disease is endemic.

Treating people who are infected is more important than a prophylactic. To get an effect with avaccie youd have to vaccinate a large number of people. That would surely take at least three months just to manufacture, and to vaccinate all the people you want, well over a year. On the other hand, these antibodies are much simpler to manufacture, and you’d have to give them to fewer people.

If you had a choice between having a vaccine in January and having this in January and the vaccine only in April, you should choose the antibodies. But you could have this in September and an improved selection of antibodies in January.

Now some cases might not be caught in time with the treatment, as opposed to the vaccine. But some people are too debilitated to be good candidates for a vaccine, plus a vaccine could give you a few surprises in some people, either giving them that overreaction discovered in children, or even, semi-paradoxically, making the disease worse in people who already have some antibodies like a dengue vaccine does.

The vaccine expert on MSNBC (didn’t get his name) said that he couldn’t imagine a way to get the vaccine within year’s end simply because getting all the necessary data to know that it works and to know what its side effects are takes longer than that.

Didn’t he know about the plan to skip steps or to do some of them simultaneously? I guess he didn’t.

But, as I said, you actually wouldn’t catch all the possible drawbacks until someone vaccinated wth the vaccine got infected. All the standard testing still wouldn’t catch – unless somebody was really looking fr it — all possible problems with a vaccine.

Only possibility was making the first wave of vaccinations serve as the clinical trial to get that data.

Also doing the second stage at the same time as the third. Of course if you are doing that maybe you don’t need a stage 2 and are only doing it for legal reasons. I don’t know what Stage 2 is for aside from minimizing the number of people exposed to the vaccine. It’s not been explained in what I read. (figuring out the best dose?)
Sammy Finkelman (c7c928) — 5/17/2020 @ 6:58 am
9. Colonel Klink (Ret) (305827) — 5/15/2020 @ 4:57 pm

he fastest ever was 4 years.

The fastest since they stated really regulating it. But even then the swine flu vaccine was developed in much less time in 1976.
Sammy Finkelman (c7c928) — 5/17/2020 @ 7:01 am
The fastest since they stated really regulating it. But even then the swine flu vaccine was developed in much less time in 1976

Previously addressed, 76 isn’t an example of success, it is a failure that was used to create the phased approach that exists now.

The 76 swine flu was an attempt to shortcut the process, and was a disaster. In fact, it’s one of the reasons why the FDA has the rules as they exist, because of the shortcuts taken in 76 created a massive problem.

Some of the American public’s hesitance to embrace vaccines — the flu vaccine in particular — can be attributed to the long-lasting effects of a failed 1976 political campaign to mass-vaccinate the public against a strain of the swine flu virus. This government-led campaign was widely viewed as a debacle and put an irreparable dent in future public health initiatives, as well as negatively influenced the public’s perception of both the flu and the flu shot in this country.

In the late winter of 1976, a completely novel strain of influenza was causing hundreds of respiratory infections at Fort Dix, an army post located in central New Jersey. Initially, this virus appeared to be closely genetically related to the 1918 flu pandemic that killed over a 100 million people globally, a pandemic that shared the very same Fort Dix as one its points of origin. These striking coincidences, along with the virus’s “sustained person-to-person spread,” prompted global public health officials to start planning for what could conceivably burgeon into a series of large and deadly outbreaks, if not an actual pandemic, in the upcoming winter (1).

But while the World Health Organization adopted a cautious “wait and see” policy to monitor the virus’s pattern of disease and to track the number of emerging infections, President Gerald Ford’s administration embarked on a zealous campaign to vaccinate every American with brisk efficiency. In late March, President Ford announced in a press conference the government’s plan to vaccinate “every man, woman, and child in the United States” (1). Emergency legislation for the “National Swine Flu Immunization Program” was signed shortly thereafter on April 15th, 1976 and six months later high profile photos of celebrities and political figures receiving the flu jab appeared in the media. Even President Ford himself was photographed in his office receiving his shot from the White House doctor.

Within 10 months, nearly 25% of the US population, or 45 million citizens, was vaccinated, but serious problems persisted throughout the process (2). Due to the urgency of creating new immunizations for a novel virus, the government used an attenuated “live virus” for the vaccine instead of a inactivated or “killed” form, increasing the probability of adverse side effects among susceptible groups of people receiving the vaccination. Furthermore, prominent American scientists and health professionals began questioning the campaign’s large expense and its drain on scarce public health resources (2).

With President Ford’s reelection campaign looming on the horizon, the campaign increasingly appeared politically motivated. The rationale for mass vaccination seemed to stem from only the barest of biological reasoning — it turned out that the flu wasn’t even related to the virus that caused the grisly 1918 epidemic and, indeed, those who were infected with the flu only suffered from a mild illness while the vaccine, for the reasons stated above, resulted in over four-hundred and fifty people developing the paralyzing Guillain-Barré syndrome. Meanwhile, outside the United States’ borders, the flu never mushroomed into the anticipated public health disaster. It was the pandemic that never was. The New York Times went so far as to dub the whole affair a “fiasco,” damning one of the largest and probably one of the most well-intentioned public health initiatives by the US government (1).

Colonel Klink (Ret) (305827) — 5/17/2020 @ 9:12 am
On an earlier topic, Powell today filed a petition to the DC Circuit for a writ of mandamus for Judge Sullivan to dismiss the case. I’d be very curious to hear your thoughts. Do you plan to blog on this development?
TW2020 (4585fe) — 5/19/2020 @ 8:55 pm
74. Colonel Klink (Ret) (305827) — 5/17/2020 @ 9:12 am

Colonel Klink (Ret) (305827) — 5/17/2020 @ 9:12 am

Previously addressed, 76 isn’t an example of success, it is a failure

Nevertheless, it is also an example of a vaccine tat was made ready in less than 4 years.

that was used to create the phased approach that exists now.

I;m not sure about that. I thought a key date was 1962,

The biggest oprobem with the 197 swine flu vaccine is that there was no swine flu to immunize people against!

It was quite deadly, but it had been wiped out right at the beginning, and being a new mutation, that was it.

But the flu experts had this theory about flu cycles.
The 76 swine flu was an attempt to shortcut the process, and was a disaster. In fact, it’s one of the reasons why the FDA has the rules as they exist, because of the shortcuts taken in 76 created a massive problem.

Some of the American public’s hesitance to embrace vaccines — the flu vaccine in particular — can be attributed to the long-lasting effects of a failed 1976 political campaign to mass-vaccinate the public against a strain of the swine flu virus. This government-led campaign was widely viewed as a debacle and put an irreparable dent in future public health initiatives, as well as negatively influenced the public’s perception of both the flu and the flu shot in this country.

In the late winter of 1976, a completely novel strain of influenza was causing hundreds of respiratory infections at Fort Dix, an army post located in central New Jersey. Initially, this virus appeared to be closely genetically related to the 1918 flu pandemic that killed over a 100 million people globally, a pandemic that shared the very same Fort Dix as one its points of origin. These striking coincidences, along with the virus’s “sustained person-to-person spread,” prompted global public health officials to start planning for what could conceivably burgeon into a series of large and deadly outbreaks, if not an actual pandemic, in the upcoming winter (1).

But while the World Health Organization adopted a cautious “wait and see” policy to monitor the virus’s pattern of disease and to track the number of emerging infections, President Gerald Ford’s administration embarked on a zealous campaign to vaccinate every American with brisk efficiency. In late March, President Ford announced in a press conference the government’s plan to vaccinate “every man, woman, and child in the United States” (1). Emergency legislation for the “National Swine Flu Immunization Program” was signed shortly thereafter on April 15th, 1976 and six months later high profile photos of celebrities and political figures receiving the flu jab appeared in the media. Even President Ford himself was photographed in his office receiving his shot from the White House doctor.

Within 10 months, nearly 25% of the US population, or 45 million citizens, was vaccinated, but serious problems persisted throughout the process (2). Due to the urgency of creating new immunizations for a novel virus, the government used an attenuated “live virus” for the vaccine instead of a inactivated or “killed” form, increasing the probability of adverse side effects among susceptible groups of people receiving the vaccination. Furthermore, prominent American scientists and health professionals began questioning the campaign’s large expense and its drain on scarce public health resources (2).

With President Ford’s reelection campaign looming on the horizon, the campaign increasingly appeared politically motivated. The rationale for mass vaccination seemed to stem from only the barest of biological reasoning — it turned out that the flu wasn’t even related to the virus that caused the grisly 1918 epidemic and, indeed, those who were infected with the flu only suffered from a mild illness while the vaccine, for the reasons stated above, resulted in over four-hundred and fifty people developing the paralyzing Guillain-Barré syndrome. Meanwhile, outside the United States’ borders, the flu never mushroomed into the anticipated public health disaster. It was the pandemic that never was. The New York Times went so far as to dub the whole affair a “fiasco,” damning one of the largest and probably one of the most well-intentioned public health initiatives by the US government (1).
Sammy Finkelman (07f19d) — 5/19/2020 @ 9:26 pm
Sorry for the overquoting.

don;t think any trials with anti-Covid-19 vaccines will catch problems with givig the vaccine to people who already ave antibodies to it.

You need people who are able to think.
Sammy Finkelman (07f19d) — 5/19/2020 @ 9:29 pm
Dustin (d59cff) — 5/15/2020 @ 6:40 pm

a vaccine research drive is much smarter.

it’s not a vaccine that they need.

It’s this:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/bet-big-on-treatments-for-coronavirus-11586102963

…By Scott Gottlieb

April 5, 2020 12:09 pm ET

…The best near-term hope: an effective therapeutic drug. That would be transformative, and it’s plausible as soon as this summer. But the process will have to move faster….

…The other approach involves antibody drugs, which mimic the function of immune cells. Antibody drugs can be used to fight an infection and to reduce the risk of contracting Covid-19. These medicines may be the best chance for a meaningful near-term success.

Antibody drugs are based on the same scientific principles that make “convalescent plasma” one interim tactic for treating the sickest Covid-19 patients. Doctors are taking blood plasma from patients who have recovered from Covid-19 and infusing it into those who are critically ill. The plasma is laden with antibodies, and the approach shows some promise. The constraint: There isn’t enough plasma from recovered patients to go around.

Antibody drugs are engineered to do the same thing as convalescent plasma, but because they’re synthesized, they don’t depend on a supply of antibodies from healed patients. Biotech companies would manufacture them in large quantities using recombinant technology, the same approach behind highly effective drugs that target and prevent Ebola, respiratory syncytial virus and other infections. The antibodies can also be a prophylaxis given to those exposed to Covid-19, or to prevent infection in vulnerable patients, such as those on chemotherapy. These drugs could protect the public until a vaccine is available.

The biotech company Regeneron successfully developed an antibody drug to treat Ebola as well as one against MERS, a deadly coronavirus similar to Covid-19. Regeneron has an antibody drug that should enter human trials in June. Vir Biotechnology is also developing an antibody treatment for Covid-19 and says it could be ready for human trials this summer. Amgen recently started its own program with Adaptive Biotech and Eli Lilly has one as well. If these approaches work, the drugs can advance quickly, because much of the science and the safety is already well understood.

But success will require a strong sense of urgency from manufacturers—and from regulators, who need to collaborate with drug developers in innovative ways to move the most promising therapies. The Food and Drug Administration has deployed tactics in recent years to advance therapeutics aimed at rare and deadly cancers. One is real-time reviews, in which regulators work with drug developers to evaluate data as it is read out from clinical trials, instead of waiting until the trial concludes, to understand the potential benefits and risks rapidly. This has enabled drug developers to accelerate development timelines. FDA’s senior career scientists need the firm backing of political leadership to apply these and similar scientific approaches to Covid-19.
Sammy Finkelman (07f19d) — 5/19/2020 @ 9:44 pm
Sammy, nothing about the antibody treatment contradicts the vaccination goal. I agree the plasma thing sounds really promising.

A (properly vetted) vaccination would obviously be exactly what the economy needs though. I have no idea if one will ever happen and obviously I doubt one will be here this year. There’s no reason why we shouldn’t he investing in every avenue to treat and prevent this disease. Like the studies showing facemasks are a huge help. Like chloroquine, obviously something that a doctor should supervise in limited situations, as studies have shown it kills more people than the illness does. Like vitamin D.

The problem with your solution is that even folks who had COVID get infected later, perhaps by a different strain, so antibodies are of limited help. I’m not saying they are useless. I think they are a great idea. Biomedical engineering and medical research is far more complicated than we laymen probably realize.
Dustin (d59cff) — 5/19/2020 @ 10:20 pm
Monoclonal antibody therapy is different than plasma antibodies but both are short-term, lasting a few weeks or maybe a couple of months. It will be hard enough to get vaccines for everyone. Getting plasma or MABs for everyone to take every few weeks is not happening.
DRJ (15874d) — 5/19/2020 @ 11:31 pm
80. DRJ (15874d) — 5/19/2020 @ 11:31 pm

Monoclonal antibody therapy is different than plasma antibodies

while the monoclonal antibodies can resemble nothing seen naturally in human beings, the big difference is that plasma has things you don’t know, and a wide variety of antibodies, while the monoclonal antibodies are pre-selected, and the intention is maybe to have three (logically, because the virus’s coat just might mutate at that spot, but it is unlikely yo mutate at three points at one time – and not more than three because they are worried about possible reactions — it is probably not necessary to limit the antibodies to three because any number can be tested for major autoimmune or allergic reactions.

but both are short-term, lasting a few weeks or maybe a couple of months.

I know it is short term, and it doesn’t matter that it is only short term because you want the virus itself to be only a short term problem.

It will be hard enough to get vaccines for everyone. Getting plasma or MABs for everyone to take every few weeks is not happening.

No, you don’t get it every few weeks – four to six months is probably fine (that’s how long a mother’s antibodies is considered to circulate in a new born baby – no vaccinations make sense before that.)

And you don’t give it to everyone – you don’t need to give it to everyone.

It’s probably enough to give it out in circumstances like when you would give an antibiotic for a bacterial infection.

You give it somebody who is sick, or where you might suspect it might be Covid-19, or maybe when the the risk of exposure is high, or you want to minimize it the most.

You might give it to arriving airline passengers and their contacts. And you give it in an easier way than an injection – you use the skin patch with 400 micro needles developed by Dr. Louis Falo of the University of Pittsburgh. (and you expedite its approval and manufacture for all purpose delivery)

A vaccine does not do more to eliminate it from the wild, except it takes longer. And this ca be produced cheaper, and faster and sooner than a vaccine and is safer.

Incidentally, some people may already have some immunity because they had one of the four coronaviruses that can cause the common cold. One thing to check with all these antibody tests that show many people have immunity is maybe it could be immunity to other coronaviruses. However that is probably not major factor because the percentage is rising and is different in different places and there is no reason to suppose that one of the common cold coronaviruses happened to circulate in the same places.
Sammy Finkelman (dfa011) — 5/21/2020 @ 12:27 pm

5/15/2020

Trump Announces “Operation Warp Speed” And A Goal Of Having A Covid-19 Vaccine By The End Of the Year

81 Responses to “Trump Announces “Operation Warp Speed” And A Goal Of Having A Covid-19 Vaccine By The End Of the Year”

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