All Job Gains Since Great Recession Are Gone
Another 4.4 million Americans filed for initial jobless claims last week, revealing that at least 26 million people have requested unemployment benefits since the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic.
In just one month, all job gains since the Great Recession have disappeared, according to new data released Thursday by the Department of Labor. The economy had created around 22 million jobs since 2010, during a historic decade of economic expansion that came to an abrupt end in February.
“It is very easy with these numbers to get to 20 percent unemployment,” said David G. Blanchflower, a professor of economics at Dartmouth College.
It’s almost certainly worse than even these numbers reflect.
The good news is that coronavirus will likely be a thing of the past in 16 months or so. The bad news is that the economic dislocation from the response cannot rebound in a day, a week, a month, or a year.
Breathe in, breathe out, right?
Maybe I can get someone to call this post “gleeful” so I can ban them.
Patterico (115b1f) — 4/23/2020 @ 8:21 amWe had to kill the patient to save him. Economic destruction has real costs and horrors that will far exceed what our worst fears create. We cannot just keep printing monopoly money and tell people it’s worth something to get them to stay at home. Get back to work, take reasonable precautions and move forward.
NJRob (4d595c) — 4/23/2020 @ 8:40 amWe had to kill the patient to save him.
I missed the news. Who’d we kill?
We cannot just keep printing monopoly money and tell people it’s worth something…
How’s it different now, since we’ve been doing this for generations?
Get back to work, take reasonable precautions and move forward.
Many never stopped working. What’s “reasonable”? What does “move forward” look like?
Don’t you advocate the plan proposed by the POTUS (ha!)?
Ragspierre (d9bec9) — 4/23/2020 @ 9:44 amI’m reminded of the last scene from Roman Polanski’s “Pirates”, where Walter Matthau and his sidekick are cast adrift in the ocean with no food, no water, all their loot taken by the Spanish or at the bottom of the sea, and Walter Matthau turns to his sidekick and says: “What are you so down in the mouth for? We’re alive, aren’t we?”
nk (1d9030) — 4/23/2020 @ 10:00 amYes, NJ Rob.
Colonel Haiku (2601c0) — 4/23/2020 @ 10:00 amBack to work, take reasonable precautions, move forward, put this in the rear view mirror.
>>All Job Gains Since Great Recession Are Gone
Success.
tRump doesn’t have a chance in November.
BillPasadena (e482e2) — 4/23/2020 @ 10:01 amTwo Americas… one is receiving a paycheck and full benefits, the other isn’t.
Colonel Haiku (2601c0) — 4/23/2020 @ 10:04 amThis is why we need to do more to help ppl who are out of work. The efficacy of what we’ve done isn’t very good.
Time123 (a7a01b) — 4/23/2020 @ 10:08 amIf that’s your definition, please tell me of a time when this was not true?
Colonel Klink (Ret) (305827) — 4/23/2020 @ 10:11 amCOVID-19’s recent spread shifts to suburban, whiter, and more Republican-leaning areas
here is a stereotypical view of the places in America that COVID-19 has affected most: they are broadly urban, comprised predominantly of racial minorities, and strongly vote Democratic. This underlines the public’s perception of what kinds of populations reside in areas highly exposed to the coronavirus, as well as some of the recent political arguments over social distancing measures and the states easing their restrictions.
While that perception of high-prevalence areas was accurate during the earlier stages of the pandemic, COVID-19’s recent spread has changed the picture. During the first three weeks of April, new counties showing a high prevalence of COVID-19 cases are more suburban, whiter, and voted more strongly for Donald Trump than counties the virus hit first. These findings result from a new analysis of counties with high COVID-19 prevalence rates (more than 100 confirmed cases per 100,000 population) based on data available from The New York Times and the U.S. Census Bureau.
As of March 29, 59 counties (representing 7.8% of the U.S. population) registered high COVID-19 prevalence rates. Over the subsequent three weeks, through April 19, an additional, 142, 254, and 262 counties registered a high prevalence—increasing the shares of the U.S. population living in such counties by 11.8%, 11.2%, and 15.7%, respectively. Thus, as of April 19, 48% of U.S. residents lived in counties with a high prevalence of COVID-19 cases.
Map 1 displays the progression of these counties from March 29 through April 19. Initially, these counties were heavily concentrated in the Northeast region, especially around the greater New York metropolitan area, with some representation in other parts of the country, including around Seattle, New Orleans, and Detroit. During the week of March 30 to April 5, more high-prevalence counties sprung up, especially in the Midwest (Chicago, Indianapolis, and Milwaukee) as well as in the South (Georgia, Mississippi, and further spread in Louisiana).
The following week, April 6 to April 12, expansion of the virus in the South continued dramatically, especially around Miami, Atlanta, Baltimore, Washington, D.C., and Memphis and Nashville, Tenn., as well as many smaller metropolitan and nonmetropolitan counties. The disease also extended into Northeast and Midwest counties located in suburban areas and smaller metropolitan areas. COVID-19 also spread in the western region, especially in the greater Denver metro area.
The week of April 13 to April 19 introduced even larger numbers of counties with a high prevalence of COVID-19 into the South, across states that already witnessed an expansion as well as in Texas and North Carolina. And in California, the populous counties of San Francisco, Los Angeles, and Riverside reached the tipping point for high prevalence, along with increases in smaller counties elsewhere in the West.
…….
As of March 29, high-prevalence areas leaned strongly Democratic—among 2016 voters living in those counties, Hillary Clinton held a 62-34 advantage over Donald Trump. But during each subsequent week since then, the Clinton advantage decreased—down to 52-42 for counties that reached high-prevalence status between April 13 to April 19.
….The stereotype that high-prevalence counties are largely comprised of racial and ethnic minorities does in fact apply to the situation as of March 29, when whites comprised just 48% of those counties’ populations. Over the subsequent two weeks, however, whites came to comprise a 58% share of residents in high-prevalence counties. This fell to 52% for high-prevalence counties new to the April 13 to April 19 period, primarily due—again—to the addition of a few heavily minority California counties.
….
…..the distribution for households in high-prevalence counties on March 29 shows a lower share of middle-income residents making between $20,000 and $99,000 per year (48%) than in counties that later reached high prevalence (ranging between 53% to 56%). Thus, as COVID-19 spreads, it appears to be occurring in areas with more middle-income populations.
Overall, this review shows that as the coronavirus pandemic continues its spread outward to new areas, those areas are less likely to fit demographic stereotypes that the public and some political activists attribute to COVID-19-affected places. It is important to continue to track these demographic trends as the pandemic evolves in order to gain a more accurate perspective of its impact on the nation.
RipMurdock (d2a2a8) — 4/23/2020 @ 10:53 am@Pat
Right. This has been an unprecedented ordeal.
We, as a nation, did the best as we can given the situation and through observations, adjust accordingly. It remains to be seen if all the actions we’ve take were right, but at least we now have some experience under our belt so that the next novel virus reaches pandemic level, we’d be more prepared.
Just for the record, we do disagree quite a bit vis-a-vis on Trump… but you (and your cobloggers) are never “gleeful” over the costs here.
whembly (c30c83) — 4/23/2020 @ 11:25 am#6
That didn’t take long….
whembly (c30c83) — 4/23/2020 @ 11:26 amYou kids should have shown up to vote for Bernie.
He didn’t have a chance last election either. Trump’s greatest ally this year is Joe Biden. His second is Putin. October will be a wild ride.
Dustin (c56600) — 4/23/2020 @ 11:57 am1. Gleeful? Naw. But I will go so far as to say this is the fruit of what the “social distancing” agenda has sown. I saw this coming a month ago.
/CassandraComplex
Gryph (08c844) — 4/23/2020 @ 12:41 pm@13. He didn’t have a chance last election either. Trump’s greatest ally this year is Joe Biden. His second is Putin. October will be a wild ride.
Never forget any episode of Combat! The fate of guest star JoeyBee is at the ready; and Kirby always survives.
DCSCA (797bc0) — 4/23/2020 @ 12:46 pmtake reasonable precautions
Hate to tell you this but reasonable precautions right now means not going oit unless you have to. If
kishnevi (5ca3cd) — 4/23/2020 @ 12:54 pmWell, the thing is, the jobs didn’t disappear so much as just stop. When things crank up again a lot of them will return in some form but no doubt some businesses will have discovered they can do with less staff. But a now chiefly ‘service economy’ certainly has had its eyes opened to the fragility and vulnerability of same.
DCSCA (797bc0) — 4/23/2020 @ 1:10 pmNew HHS spokesman made racist comments about Chinese people in now-deleted tweets
More explicit examples at the link. Remember, the Internet never forgets (or forgives). These are qualifications for the Trump administration, not disqualifications.
RipMurdock (e81e20) — 4/23/2020 @ 1:13 pmAs things ramp up again, restaurants are going to discover they can do with 7 waiters and waitresses instead of 12; bars will be likely need 1 or 2 fewer bartenders for a time; your small town will have maybe 1 less dress boutique and lose a hairdresser or three fewer tattoo parlors; bailed out airlines may likely have fare wars, which benefits consumers, to cajole folks to fly again. Open ‘farmers markets’ may likely suffer for a long time… no doubt ‘home delivery’ and online shopping will maintain growth as consumer habits, modified by all thing, take root. The ‘demand’ will simply find different paths to the ‘supply.’ But the problems exposed w/t ‘social safety net’ across America because of this mess are glaring and are going to have to be addressed; even a Chinaman will tell you multi-mile-long lines at food banks is not the image a 21st century superpower wants to project.
DCSCA (797bc0) — 4/23/2020 @ 1:28 pm@13. He didn’t have a chance last election either. Trump’s greatest ally this year is Joe Biden. His second is Putin. October will be a wild ride.
Never forget any episode of Combat! The fate of guest star JoeyBee is at the ready; the gaffe scenarios await; and Kirby always survives. W/next-to-zero-interest money to tap, a massive infrastructure bill that puts people back to work will likely float him into Term Two. Pelosi can’t kill that and McConnell will drive it through the Senate.
DCSCA (797bc0) — 4/23/2020 @ 1:32 pmI saw a clip of Biden reaching for a girl who recoiled. As far as I can tell it was extremely recent. What a jackass.
I agree with DCSCA that some of the economic damage is temporary, however this is a horrible oil bust for Houston. I heard someone say he thinks it’s the next Detroit it’s so bad. I really really hope that’s not the case, but for all my support of the quarantine, the economic harm is sobering.
Dustin (e5f6c3) — 4/23/2020 @ 1:36 pm@19. Vividly recall a Saturday in the mid-70s oil crunch, while on vacation no less, my late father on the phone trying to sell a tanker full of crude at just $4/bbl. Big Oil has deep pockets and the biz will survive just fine. Petroleum products are in pretty much everything we use today. And the energy biz has been busy diversifying.
DCSCA (797bc0) — 4/23/2020 @ 1:42 pmThere’s a reason oil is referred to as the lifeblood of the economy.
Colonel Haiku (2601c0) — 4/23/2020 @ 1:54 pmDCSCA @16,
Please refrain from using derogatory terms for ethnic groups. Both “beaner” and “Chinaman” are slurs.
norcal (a5428a) — 4/23/2020 @ 3:59 pmI’m not worried for the guys in the suits so much as the city itself. Property crime, jobs, foreclosures, etc. One thing leads to another. Yeah the minerals are still down there next year, but there’s also no fundamental reason for Detroit to become a hellhole. we’re still driving cars.
Dustin (e5f6c3) — 4/23/2020 @ 4:12 pm@22. A Chinaman is Chinaman; an American is an American; a beaner is only derogatory in the mind of the beholder. You be holdin’ baked, refried, or kidney? Try the limas. Yum!
DCSCA (797bc0) — 4/23/2020 @ 4:25 pm@2 The reality that there are often side effects in treating disease. You sometimes have to treat a patient by cutting off a limb to save their lives. Chemo often causes significant health issues. Even with antibiotics, there’s a reason women eat yogurt when they take antibiotics. You deal with the side effects in order to save lives.
Nic (896fdf) — 4/23/2020 @ 4:26 pm@23. Houston is a civic-oriented place; sports teams and Big Oil corporate offices are HQed there and will surely help out-simply out of civic pride; Texas doesn’t have a state income tax so Tedtoo can go begging for a Federal handout [NY won’t forget Sandy, though] but the bright boys and girls over at JSC/Clear Lake have an interest in keeping the balls juggling – OTOH, state officials like Dan Patrick believe there are “more important things than living’ – so you’ve got that mindset to overcome.
DCSCA (797bc0) — 4/23/2020 @ 4:34 pm26… go ahead, use them when addressing a stranger on the street, see how “okay” the recipient is with it.
Colonel Haiku (2601c0) — 4/23/2020 @ 4:44 pmMy sympathies are with the poor, put upon, small business owner who’s been screwed by an elite that shipped manufacturing jobs overseas, must compete with large, politically-connected enterprises that shipped away those jobs, hobbled wage growth and limited competition, will never be in a position to afford to pay what a government job pays in wages, benefits and retirement, must afford the taxes that pay for those government wages, benefits and retirement, AND
has to make payroll, rather than run up billions in pension debt like California, Illinois and a few others.
The private, productive sector…
Colonel Haiku (2601c0) — 4/23/2020 @ 4:47 pm29. Have. Works; tag it w/INS and it clears the park faster than a cough these days.
DCSCA (797bc0) — 4/23/2020 @ 4:57 pmOh, bullschiff. It would get your ass kicked PDQ…
Colonel Haiku (2601c0) — 4/23/2020 @ 5:00 pm@32. Like hell- they ran like scared rabbits.
DCSCA (797bc0) — 4/23/2020 @ 5:12 pmAw, it was one of your liberal “I’m a badass” dreams…
Colonel Haiku (2601c0) — 4/23/2020 @ 5:31 pmMy sympathy is also with small business owners, like my father and brother. But this is sort of incoherent after that. Small business owners aren’t hobbled by slow wage growth, they’re the ones that pay the wages. The loss of manufacturing jobs doesn’t really hit them either. Also pension liability by states don’t have a direct impact on small business owners. Honestly this just seems like a semi-random collection on things that make you feel aggrieved.
Time123 (daab2f) — 4/23/2020 @ 5:48 pmLow energy prices drives sales and profitability for the industry I work in. If they stay low after the shut down ends it could be a great headwind for us.
Time123 (457a1d) — 4/23/2020 @ 5:50 pmI agree. I don’t care if you don’t see the words as derogatory; I do. So I do not want them used on this blog.
Patterico (115b1f) — 4/23/2020 @ 7:12 pmgood point
Dustin (e5f6c3) — 4/23/2020 @ 7:19 pmOops, I meant tailwind. Sorry.
Time123 (ea2b98) — 4/24/2020 @ 4:55 am