Patterico's Pontifications

4/9/2020

Another 6.6 Million Jobless Claims Filed Last Week

Filed under: General — Patterico @ 8:17 am



Not good:

Jobless rolls continued to swell due to the coronavirus shutdown, with 6.6 million Americans filing first-time unemployment claims last week, the Labor Department reported Thursday.

That brings the total claims over the past three weeks to more than 16 million. If you compare those claims to the 151 million people on payrolls in the last monthly employment report, that means the U.S. has lost 10% of the workforce in three weeks.

Moments after the jobless claims report was released, the Federal Reserve announced plans to inject another $2.3 billion into businesses and revenue-pinched governments. Stock futures jumped after the Fed’s announcement.

Yeah, we’ve lost more than 10% of the workforce.

The good news is that the reason for all of this is not intrinsic to the economy, and it will pass.

The bad news is that it will not pass as quickly as Mr. Optimistic wants people to hope it will. And the dislocation caused by the massive disruption cannot be cured with a snap of the fingers once we have a vaccine and COVID-19 is no longer the health threat it still is today.

That said, people who seize on bad news like this to declare that we need to OPEN EVERYTHING UP come hell or highwater are gravely irresponsible. (Don’t be that guy.) What we need — and what we don’t seem to have — is a plan. I read somewhere that “[a]ny plan for gradual lifting of social distancing requires a massive testing effort to identify (hopefully) immune people with antibodies, as well as a Manhattan Project to develop therapies and eventually a vaccine.” I’m not watching the Daily Free Media for Trump Show any longer, and of course you can’t trust the Fake News to report on all the great things that our leader Donald Trump does. Therefore, I must rely on you folks to fill me in. If you are still watching the clown show every day, please tell me: do you have a sense that such a plan is in the works?

I’d love some good news, preferably before Sunday night when John Krasinski gives me some.

129 Responses to “Another 6.6 Million Jobless Claims Filed Last Week”

  1. Coming soon: how to make the best oatmeal you’ve ever eaten.

    I’m serious. I discovered the trick. Why not share it?

    Patterico (115b1f)

  2. It is utterly moronic to think that this will pass without lasting (permanent?) consequence. My grandmother died in 2013 believing that going out to eat at McDonalds was an unfathomable luxury and it was no coincidence that she was a child of the Great Depression. What we’re in for, just economically speaking, makes the 30s pale in comparison.

    Gryph (08c844)

  3. Even if we opened up our economy tomorrow and every one went back to work and shopping like it was January 15, it wouldn’t be anything close to normal because much of the rest of the world is shutting itself down. It’s not just us. How you going to sell stuff to Europe if Europe is closed to business?

    And of course people are not going to go back to work and shopping like normal as long as they have to be afraid of catching the virus and passing it on to family members.
    I know someone who worked for Walmart for over a decade. He lives with his parents, who are over 65. He could have kept working there, but quit because he’s afraid of passing the virus on to his parents.

    Kishnevi (9a5a41)

  4. 1. Please share your Oatmeal trick.

    2. Trump has not presented a plan.
    3. Trump has not presented milestones that a plan would need to meet.
    4. Trump has not presented a strategy that they’re using to develop milestones.
    5. Trump has presented a vision of “Open Soon” It’s very vague and obvious but at least it’s there.

    6. Gryph, the great depression lasted 10 years. My Grandmother never forgot the drought, the hunger, or the fear. But it was the kind of event that defined the world for the better part of a generation and it was followed by WW2, another existential threat. This isn’t expected to last a decade and there’s no reason to expect that it will be followed by anything another than a return to some type of normalcy.

    7. “It’s amazing what a man will believe when his paycheck depends on it being true.”

    Time123 (457a1d)

  5. There is no unemployment. It’s an alarmist hoax perpetrated by Deep State, the Democrats, and the media. President Trump has made America great and anybody who wants a job can have a job.

    nk (1d9030)

  6. “Scottish Oatmeal”: oatmeal with some salt during cooking, add a cup of brown sugar and a stick of real butter.

    Not a warm weather dish. Nor one that many Scots could afford historically.

    Ragspierre (d9bec9)

  7. We do have to open everything up sooner rather than later, but we also need a plan. The gravest fault of the “flatten the curve” meme is that it provided no herd immunity. But it also resulted in far fewer deaths (Fauci now says 60,000 in the US) than the 200,000 – 1.7 million people were quoting a month ago.

    What do we have to do to get to herd immunity? A vaccine might not happen soon, and might not work well.

    1. We have to get past this first wave.
    2. We have to have cheap, accurate and ubiquitous testing.
    3. While keeping some precautions (e.g. the elderly and immune-compromised continue to isolate), we go back to work.
    4. Temperatures and other easily observed symptoms are checked daily, and full testing is given as warranted. People who are positive are quarantined and their recent contacts are notified.

    The object here is not to avoid all infections — that is not possible — but to manage the virus so that it never gets to the overload condition again. Again, those who absolutely must be protected do not re-enter the workforce, if they were there to being with; this may require some fairly long-term “disability” support.

    Eventually a herd immunity develops or a vaccine is found. But we cannot just all sit on our butts while we wait, instead we have to open up the economy while making sure that the disease cannot explode on us.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  8. Oh, and the grandkids will have to get along without grandma for a little while longer.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  9. There is no unemployment.

    Very little unemployment is due to the business cycle.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  10. There’s a LOT of mythology around the Great Depression, including its causes. The Dust Bowl was a coincidence that happened during the Depression, and had little to do with it but for the fact that the economy was so weak.

    Old movies and books are like time machines, and they show a lot of Americans doing pretty well during the period. That’s not to say there was no real misery, but read and watch and you’ll dispel some of the “received wisdom” that simply isn’t true.

    Ragspierre (d9bec9)

  11. He could have kept working there, but quit because he’s afraid of passing the virus on to his parents.

    I’m waiting for some clever lawyer to make the case that quitting due to bona fide health concerns, particularly cases like this, constitute a constructive layoff and allow UI benefits to be claimed.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  12. I have been waiting for a pandemic for my entire life as a microbiologist. I quit worrying for a while in my 20s, when the press tried to convince me we would all die in nuclear war/nuclear winter (now THERE is a cure for global warming!).

    Honestly, I grew up in a very safe time. Most generations have not. And to be honest, outside of the idiots in power everywhere, I see so much about everyday people to make me proud.

    So yes, awful times are here. But my parents and grandparents would light cigarettes, raise an eyebrow, and tell me to put on my big boy pants. We will all have to work hard to get out of it.

    Please remember one thing that sounds weird, but is true: SARS-COV-2 is *not* an awful virus, despite the deaths we see. Many viruses are much, much worse. So it’s time for us all to quit blaming politicians for what they haven’t done, and insist on a proper organization to deal with these kinds of global threats moving forward. And keep the politicians from well, politicizing everything. Think of the current crisis as a prerequisite course for an awful final exam in the future. An interconnected world will do that.

    Patterico, I grew up hating oatmeal. Now I like it. Please share your recipe?

    Simon Jester (6067ca)

  13. P.S. Kevin M, your points are eminently reasonable. Thank you.

    Simon Jester (6067ca)

  14. 2. We have to have cheap, accurate and ubiquitous testing.

    Which as a happy fantasy is swell. But that could easily be farther out than a vaccine, effective treatment, or vast response in the supply of needed medical stuff.

    It’s not a plan for anything like the near-term.

    Ragspierre (d9bec9)

  15. Repost-Ten Weeks to Crush the Curve

    …..The economy is in the tank, and anywhere from thousands to more than a million American lives are in jeopardy. Most analyses of options and trade-offs assume that both the pandemic and the economic setback must play out over a period of many months for the pandemic and even longer for economic recovery. However, as the economists would say, there is a dominant option, one that simultaneously limits fatalities and gets the economy cranking again in a sustainable way.

    That choice begins with a forceful, focused campaign to eradicate Covid-19 in the United States. The aim is not to flatten the curve; the goal is to crush the curve. China did this in Wuhan. We can do it across this country in 10 weeks.
    …..
    1. Establish unified command.The President should surprise his critics and appoint a commander who reports directly to the President. ….This is not a coordinator across agencies. This commander carries the full power and authority of the American President to mobilize every civilian and military asset needed to win the war. Ask every governor to appoint an individual state commander with similar statewide authority. ……2. Make millions of diagnostic tests available. Not everyone needs to be tested, but everyone with symptoms does. The nation needs to gear up to perform millions of diagnostic tests in the next 2 weeks. This was key to success in South Korea…….3. Supply health workers with PPE and equip hospitals to care for a surge in severely ill patients. Ample supplies of PPE (personal protective equipment) should be standard issue to every U.S. health worker who is in the front lines caring for patients and testing for infection. We wouldn’t send soldiers into battle without ballistic vests; health workers on the front lines of this war deserve no less. ……4. Differentiate the population into five groups and treat accordingly. We first need to know who is infected; second, who is presumed to be infected (i.e., persons with signs and symptoms consistent with infection who initially test negative); third, who has been exposed; fourth, who is not known to have been exposed or infected; and fifth, who has recovered from infection and is adequately immune. We should act on the basis of symptoms, examinations, tests (currently, polymerase-chain-reaction assays to detect viral RNA), and exposures to identify those who belong in each of the first four groups. Hospitalize those with severe disease or at high risk. 5. Inspire and mobilize the public.In this all out effort, everyone has a part to play and virtually everyone is willing. We have begun to unleash American ingenuity in creating new treatments and a vaccine, providing a greater variety and number of diagnostic tests, and using the power of information technology, social media, artificial intelligence, and high-speed computing to devise novel solutions. These efforts should be intensified. …..6. Learn while doing through real-time, fundamental research. Clinical care would be vastly improved by effective antiviral treatment, and every plausible avenue should be investigated. We did it with HIV; now, we need to do it faster with SARS-CoV-2. Clinicians need better predictors of which patient’s condition is prone to deteriorate rapidly or who may go on to die. Decisions to shape the public health response and to restart the economy should be guided by science. If we learn how many people have been infected and whether they are now immune, we may determine it’s safe for them to return to their jobs and resume more normal activities. ……

    None of which has been done while the Trumper in Chief bellyaches against the press, governors (who are actually doing something), front-line hospital staff (hoarders!), allies, and adversaries (political and otherwise).

    RipMurdock (d2a2a8)

  16. Old movies and books are like time machines, and they show a lot of Americans doing pretty well during the period.

    Movies that showed a lot of misery failed badly. No one wanted to see that. So you got fantasy, nostalgia, westerns and Hitchcock. Even after the fact, you got Bedford Falls and not Potterville.

    As for books, some DID show a lot of misery. Agee and Steinbeck to name two well-known examples.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  17. Which as a happy fantasy is swell. But that could easily be farther out than a vaccine, effective treatment, or vast response in the supply of needed medical stuff.

    Bollocks. Several have been approved and are in production now, and will get cheaper as we go.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  18. I would also like the oatmeal tip. My standard practice is to use 1:1 ratio of oatmeal to water. I think the instructions usually say to go 1/2 cup oatmeal for every 1 cup water. I like to give it more time on the stove because I throw frozen fruit on top and let the heat warm up the fruit and have the juices seep into the oatmeal. It’s really boring but it works!

    JohnnyAgreeable (1b878e)

  19. Kesiwo Outdoor Tools Factory Store, in China, tells me:

    Dear buyer
    Thanks for your visit to my store, Our Shipping to Russia, Ukraine, Belarus,the United States and most European countries is normal now. if you like our product please feel free to place your order,we will ship out it ASAP, any question please contcact me by store message. thnaks!
    Best wishes to you!!!

    If Mr. Kesiwo can do it within four months, we can do it too. (We might have a little trouble teaching the Millennials to even.)

    nk (1d9030)

  20. Orange man always bad. Has Cuomo or Newsome presented a “Plan”? I would assume, Trump will issue a “Plan” after we know what the next two weeks have brought, since there’s no reason to issue a “Re-opening plan” if we can’t “Re-open”. That’s just standard project/business management.

    Personally, I Think we need to start up the economy on May 1st. Other countries in Europe, are already moving in that direction.

    rcocean (2e1c02)

  21. You can be sure, that when we do re-open, all the Trump haters will be attacking Trump for opening too quickly, or not fast enough. The only thing they will not say, is that Trump did a good job.

    rcocean (2e1c02)

  22. If Cuomo presented a competing economic plan would Trump fans praise him or would they harshly condemn him for not being focused on his immediate urgent task? I’m holding my breath for the answer.

    Dustin (a65e91)

  23. Has Cuomo or Newsome presented a “Plan”?

    They will. All the governors and mayors will. And that’s the way it should be. Whatever works on the ground. The federal government’s role will be to monitor interstate and foreign commerce.

    nk (1d9030)

  24. Kevin, I think it would be great if Trump articulated the steps you laid out and used his daily briefing to keep the country informed on how it was going. That sounds like a decent approach based on what I’ve read.

    Time123 (d1bf33)

  25. Simon Jester? You’ve made my day a little brighter with your calm, clear-eyed opinion.

    Thanks!

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  26. China did this in Wuhan

    And you know this how? Because the CCP said so? Amazing how there were no outbreaks in Shanghai or Beijing…

    Horatio (f11615)

  27. The only thing they will not say, is that Trump did a good job.

    Trump has not done a good job. He has been part of the problem. Not merely a failure, but a saboteur. The solution has come from mayors and governors.

    nk (1d9030)

  28. 23… exactly as it should be. Regional and in phases.

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  29. You can be sure, that when we do re-open, all the Trump haters will be attacking Trump for opening too quickly, or not fast enough. The only thing they will not say, is that Trump did a good job.

    Being late and incompetent means we should doubt everything he’s doing until there’s an example of Trump NOT doing the worst possible job imaginable.

    Colonel Klink (Ret) (305827)

  30. Orange man always bad. Has Cuomo or Newsome presented a “Plan”? I would assume, Trump will issue a “Plan” after we know what the next two weeks have brought, since there’s no reason to issue a “Re-opening plan” if we can’t “Re-open”. That’s just standard project/business management.

    Personally, I Think we need to start up the economy on May 1st. Other countries in Europe, are already moving in that direction.

    rcocean (2e1c02) — 4/9/2020 @ 9:50 am

    Are you dim? We’re not talking about a plan for ‘how’ we re-open. We’re talking about a plan for getting us to a place where we can re-open. It’s possible that will depend on things like testing, daily self assessments, & temperature. It’s also possible that we’ll need coordinated partial opening that will take time to communicate and work out.

    Time123 (457a1d)

  31. Being late and incompetent means we should doubt everything he’s doing until there’s an example of Trump NOT doing the worst possible job imaginable.

    Although he’s been a failure, he hasn’t done the worst possible job. He could still be telling everyone it’s a hoax for instance.

    Time123 (457a1d)

  32. Which as a happy fantasy is swell. But that could easily be farther out than a vaccine, effective treatment, or vast response in the supply of needed medical stuff.

    Bollocks. Several have been approved and are in production now, and will get cheaper as we go.

    BS. No vaccines have been approved, only in a few are conducting experimental trials.

    More Coronavirus Vaccines and Treatments Move Toward Human Trials

    There is no approved treatment for Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus, and researchers and doctors are testing a host of therapies in a desperate bid to save the lives of people who have few other options. President Trump has aggressively promoted two old malaria drugs, which have shown only limited evidence of working as treatments for the coronavirus. He has pushed for the drugs’ broader use in patients without the more rigorous clinical trials typically used to evaluate treatments.

    RipMurdock (d2a2a8)

  33. Can you on ock off the personal insults, even just for a day?

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  34. Knock off

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  35. CH, you’re right. I shouldn’t have called RCocean ‘dim’. That’s rude and not called for. I was annoyed because he seemed to intentionally missing the point and I shouldn’t have insulted him in response.

    Time123 (457a1d)

  36. Thanks… have a good day!

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  37. Yeah, we’ve lost more than 10% of the workforce.

    And the Dow is up 500 points.

    Reaganomics.

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  38. There’s a LOT of mythology around the Great Depression, including its causes. The Dust Bowl was a coincidence that happened during the Depression, and had little to do with it but for the fact that the economy was so weak.

    Old movies and books are like time machines, and they show a lot of Americans doing pretty well during the period. That’s not to say there was no real misery, but read and watch and you’ll dispel some of the “received wisdom” that simply isn’t true.

    Ragspierre (d9bec9) — 4/9/2020 @ 9:24 am

    You may be right, but she didn’t see it that way and it had an impact on how she viewed the world.

    Time123 (d1bf33)

  39. Movies that showed a lot of misery failed badly. No one wanted to see that. So you got fantasy, nostalgia, westerns and Hitchcock. Even after the fact, you got Bedford Falls and not Potterville.

    Bullroar! Make a trip to TCM and educate yourself. But here’s a clue…why were they making movies? Because nobody could afford them? Think!

    BTW, It’s A Wonderful Life was obviously made after WWII. Ever see Meet John Doe? I could name a dozen or so if I had a memory for names.

    As for books, some DID show a lot of misery. Agee and Steinbeck to name two well-known examples.

    Steinbeck was known for books that featured the worst in America, but he still depicted a lot of folks doing well. The Joads were a myth! My grandpa was a genuine Okie who knew…BEFORE the Depression…what it was like to work from sun-do to sun-don’t and still go to bed hungry. He migrated to California and went to work for Bell Telephone and then worked in the oil patch in Long Beach until he retired.

    Atticus Finch managed to keep a home and put food on the table, as did MOST Americans.

    Seriously.

    Ragspierre (d9bec9)

  40. 23… exactly as it should be. Regional and in phases.

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0) — 4/9/2020 @ 9:58 am

    Regional and phased makes sense. But having it uncoordinated where minimum standards aren’t meat in all states is a big risk when we allow free travel between the states. For example if Ohio has a very conservative plan with good testing and phases etc. etc. but Michigan goes 100% it doesn’t work. This is an area where federal coordination and leadership would have value.

    And this says nothing about the impact that defining a plan and meeting the milestones of the plan would have on the public. Or, if that doesn’t seem important, to the market.

    Time123 (d1bf33)

  41. Bollocks. Several have been approved and are in production now, and will get cheaper as we go.

    Links please.

    Col. Klink wrote yesterday that the numbers would be several multiples of a couple million. I don’t see that any time soon. I’d be delighted to be mistaken.

    Ragspierre (d9bec9)

  42. @39. Ignorance is bliss. Stay happy.

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  43. You may be right, but she didn’t see it that way and it had an impact on how she viewed the world.

    Sure, and the course of the next few years are going to shape how my grandkids see the world, and how they interact with people all around them. Imagine how people in our nation’s capital were shaped by having the population literally decimated in 1793.

    Ragspierre (d9bec9)

  44. Interesting… https://heisenbergreport.com/2020/04/06/marko-kolanovic-forecasts-dates-for-coronavirus-peak-end-of-crisis/

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0) — 4/9/2020 @ 10:27 am

    Interesting analysis, but it gets back to the need to keep a 2nd wave from starting.

    Time123 (d1bf33)

  45. RIP – Mort Drucker

    His film and TV satires were pure gold.
    _

    harkin (b64479)

  46. Some good news?!

    Gold hits $1740!

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  47. Big Data for the semi-win…

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  48. Excellent comment, Kevin M 7. All your points are important and I think they could be achieved in time:

    1. Vaccines and treatments will take time but a lot of public and private resources are focused on them.

    2. In the meantime, social distancing can continue in areas where needed.

    3. That will provide time to work out the legal issues that concern many people.

    4. The elderly and immune-compromised will have to be more careful but most already were due to the limitations imposed by age or illness. The healthy elderly can choose whether they want to isolate or take more risks.

    5. Checking temperatures and other symptoms is not much different than the enhanced airport screening after 9/11. It is already being done in my area.

    6. The key is testing but we can do that. Pregnancy tests weren’t available in the past, but now they are readily available.

    DRJ (15874d)

  49. Colonel, thank you for your kind words. I kind of stay away from posting because things become heated. That’s not a judgment or criticism. Just something that doesn’t help me get through the day.

    I am now teaching “remotely” and my lab is shut down. So I do the best I can with my students. What has surprised and pleased me is how people in my neighborhood have started helping one another.

    I even have friends making the masks for me, which I think are not useful to me, other than to keep me touching my face. But the fabric looks silly, so they are fun to wear when I go the market. People smile.

    Plus, I have both of my sons in the house now (my oldest had to come home from college to do online, like many places). So all four of us are together, and it reminds me of what is important.

    Best wishes to all.

    Simon Jester (6067ca)

  50. P.S. DRJ, excellent points as always.

    Simon Jester (6067ca)

  51. I am glad you and your family are together, Simon. It is a silver lining of this. And thank you again for the Microbe.TV link. I am learning so much from the podcasts and links.

    DRJ (15874d)

  52. How realistic is it for vaccines to be available in just a year or two? I thought those needed several years of testing. I grant of course the reward of a vaccine justifies some degree of risk, and everyone will need to use it to develop herd immunity, but what are the risks? Does anyone know more about that?

    Those concerned that Trump can’t get a fair shake are, in all honesty, correct. The press is terrible to him, but so are a lot of intelligent, morally good people, who just can’t get past his character and performance record in office. For the sake of the economy, for the same reasons we hope to see everyone back to work, Trump must not be reelected. I hope the GOP seriously considers this point, because it’s not a flippant one. He lacks the credibility to lead us through these times. I do not want to resort to Biden. The GOP can fix this. They would pay a price, but for God’s sake, pay it.

    Dustin (a65e91)

  53. Can you spot the difference?

    https://twitter.com/LizRNC/status/1248227180997419013?s=20
    _

    harkin (b64479)

  54. harkin, I agree the press is generally very unfavorable towards Trump. It’s actually provided him a lot of cover to say things are fake from media that lacks a lot of credibility.

    But that GOP ad doesn’t really capture the issue without showing us the difference in how Cuomo and Trump have described treatments. The ‘unfair’ press questions to the two of them were referencing how each of them have discussed the medication. The difference is based on something accurate.

    You may not accept it, but had Obama or Hillary said this stuff about that drug (I just can’t spell it to save my life) I would be just as critical. You could point out that the press would handle it totally differently, and you’d be correct.

    But this is how we conflate partisan fights with more important issues. Whether Trump handled himself well is not dependent on whether the media is liberal. In fact, if every damn thing is a fight about fairness, there’s no way to evaluate Trump’s performance. This isn’t good for Americans.

    Dustin (a65e91)

  55. From your Snohomish County correspondent, the curve of new cases is on a downward slope, and it’s not for lack of testing. WA State is #5, not counting DC. I expect the number of new cases will continue to decline and deaths will go to a trickle here. Over half the known cases have recovered. Our confirmed cases and deaths are a little on the high side because, out of 1,695 total cases, almost 200 were infected in assisted living facilities. I still have concerns. The number hospitalized is still high, for one.
    Here’s what I see in my neck of the woods (or hope to see). Businesses will open their doors after Cinco de Mayo (why chance it). To attract customers, the enterprising ones will advertise that they practice social distancing, like in the supermarkets. Restaurants will configure tables six feet apart, and movie theaters will block off seating, etc. For the time being, they’ll have less business than before, but they’ll at least have business and people to employ.

    Paul Montagu (f57f23)

  56. Both times I’ve gotten groceries from HEB I’ve gotten an email asking if the curbside employees practiced good social distancing (which they did). It really reinforces the idea that the store is being as safe as they can. It’s smart marketing. Paul’s right that there will be some interesting changes to how business operates, and that it will be a bit of a damper on the economy (nothing like things are today fortunately).

    Dustin (a65e91)

  57. Dustin,

    There are at least 79 vaccines currently being researched or tested. There are risks associated with all vaccines, even those that have been used for decades. I think there will be many countries eager to allow expedited testing of promising vaccines. IMO the important thing is a clinical trial run by a responsible medical facility that reviews and publishes its results.

    DRJ (15874d)

  58. Smart and good, Paul and Dustin. Win-Win.

    DRJ (15874d)

  59. I hope Texas handles Covid-19 as well as Washington State has.

    DRJ (15874d)

  60. Kevin, I would add one thing to your plan that I think you agree with: Do more to support US manufacturers of critical medical supplies, now and in the future. I consider this a national security issue.

    DRJ (15874d)

  61. And another observation. A few weeks ago, there was almost kind of a panicked atmosphere at the stores. Yesterday it was more irritation that certain shelves were cleared out, but it was also more relaxed, more confidence that folks wouldn’t catch something. Baby steps.

    Paul Montagu (f57f23)

  62. That was an interesting read, DRJ.

    Dustin (a65e91)

  63. This week’s edition of Microbe.TV is titled “We need a plan.”

    DRJ (15874d)

  64. The Sabin vaccine link, Dustin? Vaccines are crucial but there is a lot we don’t know. I want medicine do more to educate people. Most people want a magic bullet, not a complex decision, so I also understand the desire to trust the vaccine.

    DRJ (15874d)

  65. Kevin M: part of #3 and #4 also needs to be:

    * testing must be *free* or at *nominal cost* because there’s a huge social interest in not having people refuse to get tested because they can’t afford it

    * quarantined people whose employers can’t pay for the time off MUST be eligible for state financial support during the time they are quarantined, in order to reduce the risk of people refusing to comply because they’ll be unable to pay rent or mortgage if they do.

    this is a specific targeted concern — people *will* refuse to get tested and they *will* break quarantine if they believe that doing so is necessary to keep their children fed and housed. Their refusal to get tested and their breaking quarantine poses an imminent health threat to everyone around them, and there’s a huge public interest in removing the incentive for them to do so.

    aphrael (7962af)

  66. Develop (with government subsidies) low cost tests we can buy at CVS, Walgreens, etc. If you want free tests, it will mean doctors and/or insurance has to approve and tests will be processed thru public health. That will create massive logjams, far more than having to pay a nominal fee.

    DRJ (15874d)

  67. https://hotair.com/headlines/archives/2020/04/boris-johnson-intensive-care/

    BoJo is better, so that’s good news.

    Ragspierre (d9bec9)

  68. Speaking of optimistic:

    Bianca Nobilo
    @bianca_nobilo

    BREAKING: Boris Johnson is out of intensive care and in “extremely good spirits”- No 10

    The PM is back in a regular ward for recovery and will receive close monitoring during the early phase of his recovery.
    __ _

    This is going to be a blow to the libs and millennials on another board I frequent that have been celebrating his illness, some even cheering for his death.
    _

    harkin (b64479)

  69. Dustin, in the discussion at Microbe TV 599, the researchers talked about treatments and vaccines. The guest said she does not think the government will require full clinical trials for certain drugs.

    DRJ (15874d)

  70. But we do not want true home tests, aphrael. They need to mail in to labs for processing so we can get the data.

    DRJ (15874d)

  71. Develop (with government subsidies) low cost tests we can buy at CVS, Walgreens, etc. If you want free tests, it will mean doctors and/or insurance has to approve and tests will be processed thru public health. That will create massive logjams, far more than having to pay a nominal fee.

    DRJ (15874d) — 4/9/2020 @ 11:46 am

    Completely disagree. I don’t think the test should be a scarce resource that needs to be rationed through price signals. Make them free.

    2 Arguments for this.

    Both from a small government perspective.

    If I’m an asymptomatic carrier and I feel OK I don’t see why I need to take a test. I don’t feel sick and taking the test won’t improve my health outcome. I’d rather go to the gym that work out in my garage so the uncertainty makes my life better. You want me to to take the test so that I’ll know i need to quarantine myself to protect you. Since the test is for your benefit and not mine I think you should pay for it.

    Alternatively, since I know that some people will not take the test if it’s not easy I want as few roadblocks for them as possible. I’d like to use the coercive power of government to spend public funds produce and distribute the test. I’d like the government to press distributors to place them in convenient locations to encourage use. This would mean using public funds.

    Time123 (457a1d)

  72. DRJ #52: the advantage here is that I personally know many of the participants. Vincent has been a friend of mine for over ten years, and I have been on his podcast twice. So I trust his judgement. Sure, he gets political sometimes. But when it comes to science, he is fair, accurate, and straightforward.

    I’m glad you are listening to his show.

    Simon Jester (6067ca)

  73. DRJ — yes and no. we don’t want people to have to wait three days for results (which is what you get if you have to mail them in), we want rapid testing where results can be determined within hours. otherwise we can’t contain things because people will get tested and then go about their normal business.

    aphrael (7962af)

  74. We probably need both. A quick and free home test where we might allow a higher error rate of and a more accurate mail in test. I’d be willing to link benefits to the more accurate test.

    -Take your home test at every appropriate time interval, if you’re positive take the better test and stay home until you get the results. If those are positive the results come with some assistance during social distancing. Linking the the positive test to encourage compliance.

    Time123 (457a1d)

  75. He seems interested in facts and truth, wherever it leads. Did you hear him mention that some people are suggesting OPV as a treatment/vaccine for Covid? That is another reason I linked his article on OPV for Dustin. There are no easy answers in virology!

    DRJ (15874d)

  76. Instant home tests will be abused. Too many people will self-medicate and go about their lives.

    DRJ (15874d)

  77. So we’re not doing instant at home tests, but we have testing stations people go to to get instant tests. The point is that if there’s a three day mail delay we don’t get results fast enough to act on them and the whole thing spirals out of control again.

    aphrael (7962af)

  78. Free instant tests in doctor’s offices or urgent care. Maybe CCS/Walgreens where they give vaccines, but I would only do that as a part of getting a vaccine at the same time.

    DRJ (15874d)

  79. @77 so you’re envisioning compulsory testing on a defined time interval? I take the test, mail it in, wait x days, get the results and react?

    Time123 (d1bf33)

  80. @79, DRJ, do you think this will take the wind out of the Anti-Vax movement?

    Time123 (d1bf33)

  81. Maybe, or maybe a wide range of testing options will get more results because people can do what works for them.

    Some may want a home test to mail in and isolate while waiting on results, while others want immediate answers so they can get on with their lives. And still others may want a doctor handling it.

    DRJ (15874d)

  82. Actually, I think in the short run, everyone will clamor for a vaccine. But in the long run, it will energize anti-Vaxxers because the short clinical trials will mean more side effects.

    DRJ (15874d)

  83. Not compulsory testing, not at all, unless your job requires it. Like health care, maybe other service jobs. It would be similar to drug testing and probably could be done at any occupational testing facility.

    DRJ (15874d)

  84. I don’t really mind having a home test option with immediate results for people who want that, but I don’t want the government to subsidize it. Let a private manufacturer market that. If the government pays, we need to know the results.

    DRJ (15874d)

  85. Here’s some more promising news. A couple of friends of ours from church (although we’ve drifted since leaving North Creek Pres) were both infected and are now recovering. Both had underlying health issues and they’re in their 70s, but they signed up for a drug trial involving remdevisir, which has been used for ebola. They don’t know if they took the drug or a placebo, but it’s a good story about good people.
    They were at the same hospital, EvergreenHealth, where a friend of ours works as a nurse. There’s a picture of her on Facebook at work, wearing what looks almost like a hazmat suit.

    Paul Montagu (f57f23)

  86. I agree with your 75, Time123. My concern is about what government should pay for, not what people can buy. The more options the market can provide, the better.

    DRJ (15874d)

  87. Are you dim?
    – Time123 (457a1d) — 4/9/2020 @ 10:02 am

    This is neither necessary nor helpful.

    felipe (023cc9)

  88. >Not compulsory testing, not at all, unless your job requires it

    job or certain recreational activities. the only way we safely get NFL games back is if all attendees are required to have been tested and demonstrated non-infectious before entry. same for large music festivals.

    aphrael (7962af)

  89. What a nice story, Paul! I hope they got the Remdesivir. It seemed to work on the Diamond Princess evacuees in Nebraska. It would be nice to have something work.

    DRJ (15874d)

  90. > I would only do that as a part of getting a vaccine at the same time.

    and in the 12-18 months before there *is* a vaccine?

    aphrael (7962af)

  91. in a world where everyone’s safety depends on the infectious being isolated ASAP, we need incentives for people to get tested and stay isolated when they test positive, rather than costs for them to do so.

    and in a world where we know people won’t do it voluntarily, we probably need it to be compulsory.

    after a vaccine and (hopefully) herd immunity, this changes. but for the next year or two, not having quick, cheap, compulsory testing just lands us back where we are now.

    aphrael (7962af)

  92. I don’t really mind having a home test option with immediate results for people who want that, but I don’t want the government to subsidize it. Let a private manufacturer market that. If the government pays, we need to know the results.

    Ok, I disagree for the reasons I stated earlier.

    Time123 (457a1d)

  93. Are you dim?
    – Time123 (457a1d) — 4/9/2020 @ 10:02 am

    This is neither necessary nor helpful.

    felipe (023cc9) — 4/9/2020 @ 12:40 pm

    True. Shouldn’t have written it. Sorry that I did.

    Time123 (457a1d)

  94. The Sabin vaccine link, Dustin? Vaccines are crucial but there is a lot we don’t know. I want medicine do more to educate people. Most people want a magic bullet, not a complex decision, so I also understand the desire to trust the vaccine.

    DRJ (15874d) — 4/9/2020 @ 11:35 am

    Yes. I think vaccines are one of those issues that invite bias. Most of us recognize how helpful they are and in Austin there’s a problem of folks refusing vaccines due to ‘big pharma’ and nonsense psuedoscience. There’s a lot of pressure against this ‘antivaxx’ movement. And so it can be hard to analyze and discuss vaccines, at least in my experience, without folks automatically jumping to one or the other assumption.

    Dustin (a65e91)

  95. Simon Jester (6067ca) — 4/9/2020 @ 10:51 am

    My best wishes to you, too, Simon!

    felipe (023cc9)

  96. I would have to think about that, aphrael. I really doubt any sports teams or music promoters will require that, so it would fall on the city/venue to do. They would have to do it for every event over what … 10-20 -50 people? … and pay for it. How recent would the test have to be, or do you want testing at the venue? It seems completely unworkable to me and it would not get everyone. If there is a true health issue then the better course is to shut it down.

    DRJ (15874d)

  97. > If there is a true health issue then the better course is to shut it down.

    the festival i go to every year, the entire local economy depends on it. so how do you make the decision *as the city government* to shut down the basis of your local economy *for two years*?

    aphrael (7962af)

  98. I was talking about not having testing at CVS/Walgreens unless they were there for a vaccine, aphrael. I don’t want people who think they are sick with Covid going to stores like that.

    Time123, I understand your point. I can live with the government paying for everything but I don’t think it promotes the results we want.

    DRJ (15874d)

  99. Then you take the risk, aphrael, just like we all will as we go back to our lives. We want testing, treatments, vaccines (when we can get them), but we can’t test every person every day and give them a handstamp that says they are clean. Hospitals may do that but it isn’t feasible for everyone or everywhere.

    DRJ (15874d)

  100. On the upside- many elements of this brings to mind life in Europe every August; family reminded me of this similar scenario, albeit w/o the social distancing, but businesses would pretty much slow and shutter or simply power down as every one goes on holiday for 30 days. Non-resident-touristy-type-busy-busy-clock-punch-to-the-heart-attack-Americans always found the slow down odd.

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  101. Time 123,

    How many people will (1) routinely test themselves, even if it is free, and (2) change their plans or behavior based on the results if the results are only known to them? With pregnancy tests, some (but not all) mothers often follow up with doctors because they want healthy babies. How many Covid testers will care if they are asymptomatic or only get mildly ill?

    I want people to get information but my feeling is that they will be more responsible if they have to see a doctor, drive thru, or pay a fee for a home test. Unlimited (and they must be unlimited, right?) free tests with no oversight or reporting will invite people to treat Covid like a cold sore unless they get really sick. That seems like the opposite of what we want, but maybe I am being too pessimistic.

    DRJ (15874d)

  102. > drive thru

    free drive thru test is basically what i’m advocating.

    >pay a fee for a home test.

    even the $5 fee is going to discourage the single mom of three kids who makes minimum wage and barely manages to keep her kids housed and fed. that’s not just bad for her and her family, it’s bad for everyone she works with and their families, and everyone *they* work with and their families. for any of them to be safe, she has to be able to get tested without it effecting her bottom line, and she has to be able to quarantine without it effecting her bottom line.

    aphrael (7962af)

  103. I may be naive in wondering this, but…

    Suppose we have a test for the presence of the virus. Of those in the population who test positive for it, how do we know they are NOT part of that happy population who have now acquired immunity?

    Are they trapped in a cycle of test, positive result, quarantine, retest, positive result, yada, yada?

    Without a second, different test showing immunity, how is the first test really much of an advance?

    And, from my limited POV, isn’t it essentially a supposition that the virus will be ubiquitous, at least until a vaccine is found or we develop that herd immunity (either of which could take years)?

    Ragspierre (d9bec9)

  104. I think there is a difference between testing for the virus and testing for antibodies that show someone had the virus in the past.

    Antibody tests, also known as titer testing, is common for diseases we have been vaccinated against. It measures not only whether we have had the disease/vaccine but also can help us know whether we need a booster vaccine. I am a big fan of titer testing because vaccines don’t work the same for everyone.

    DRJ (15874d)

  105. Ragspierre, at 104 — yeah, obviously we also have to have antibody tests.

    the real danger there is that if this doesn’t confer immunity — and there’s some evidence suggesting that it doesn’t, but the evidence could also mean other things and it’s too early to know what it means for sure — then the entire model collapses.

    on the one hand it’s a supposition that the virus will be ubiquitous, but since it’s clearly already widespread, has a large percentage of asymptomatic cases, and can produce infection for days before symptoms are visible, it’s a reasonable supposition. we aren’t going to get this back to zero. the opportunity to do that was lost when it escaped containment in china.

    aphrael (7962af)

  106. A friend I’ve known since grade school wants me to go up to Idaho to go hunting with him. I told him that I’m hunkered down at home until this virus situation improves. He responded, “WTF!!!? Get up here next week dude. All of Idaho is social distancing…Get that decrepit Remington 22 pump action out of the closet, slap a scope on it, let’s go hunting.”

    Um, how is it social distancing if I go up there, stay with him and his wife, and then go hunting with him? The funniest part is that he is in the medical field!

    I don’t even know how to respond to him.

    norcal (a5428a)

  107. Norcal,

    social distancing means taking reasonable precautions. It doesn’t mean stop living. How many infections in your area? Have either of you been to high risk locations where you might be exposed? Normal, reasonable questions.

    NJRob (4d595c)

  108. Walgreens and CVS will have drive thru testing with results in 5 min.

    DRJ (15874d)

  109. Tests are free but prescreening, appointments and ID are required. Can we all be happy about this?

    DRJ (15874d)

  110. Why ID?

    Leviticus (c68ea0)

  111. And which festival do you go to, aphrael?

    I was telling my wife that next year, if it’s safe/responsible to do so, I want to take her to Outside Lands.

    Leviticus (c68ea0)

  112. Depends, doesn’t it?

    Ragspierre (d9bec9)

  113. Leviticus — I often go to outside lands, but coachella is the one i go to every year (since 2005).

    i was supposed to be there today.

    aphrael (7962af)

  114. if you do make it to outside lands, even if i’m not going, let’s meet up for coffee or beer. :)

    aphrael (7962af)

  115. NJRob,

    I believe that getting together with anybody outside my house right now is risky. It appears that this virus spreads like wildfire unless people stay home. My brother is passing through Reno next week, but I won’t be seeing him.

    norcal (a5428a)

  116. Also, Leviticus, OSL is theoretically still on for this year, a prospect which I find … implausible would be understating it. The putative lineup leaked this morning and it looks phenomenal.

    aphrael (7962af)

  117. Folks, please consider listening to the podcasts I have been suggesting. DRJ will back me up that they are worthwhile.

    https://www.microbe.tv/

    We have a media FULL of folks (who have little to no training in science, let alone virology) screaming the scariest headlines possible…and those folks really don’t know what they are talking about.

    For example, this business that MAYBE having had SARS-COV-2 doesn’t confer immunity… That’s actually a very rare situation, when you take classes in immunology. So just as folks are REALLY persnickety about some results, they need to extend that critical thinking to results that seem to buttress the relentlessly negative media vibe.

    For example, this:

    https://time.com/5810454/coronavirus-immunity-reinfection/

    I mean, click on the links in the article. You can see that there isn’t a lot of data provided or linked to that supports that contention.

    When you do a little digging, Time quotes unnamed “experts” who suggest that these supposed reinfections might be lingering infections…

    Personally, I don’t trust Chinese data at present; you may have seen the report of inaccurate test materials sent from China to Europe.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-52092395

    Keep in mind what the tests actually look for. The RT-PCR test is specifically looking for viral mRNA…that is, actively reproducing virus. The antibody test is looking for evidence that your body has “seen” and “responded to” the virus. That’s why DRJ’s comment about titer is so important: the intensity and “memory” of the immune response.

    Yes, there is much we do not know. But presuming every unknown will turn out negative isn’t science, nor is it reporting. It is advocacy. And a lot of people are clearly fully invested in something deeply awful, because it will allow power to be wielded, or fit their political issues.

    Me, I’m betting on the folks working on this problem.

    Best wishes to all.

    Simon Jester (6067ca)

  118. I wholeheartedly recommend Simon’s links. It is something scientists, researchers, healthcare professionals, and laymen can benefit from reading, listening and clicking the links. They explain many, many of the things I’ve seen in the news in terms even a layman like me can understand.

    DRJ (15874d)

  119. I’ve never been to Coachella, aphrael. But if I make it out to Golden Gate Park again, I’ll give you a heads up. Coffee or a beer or three with you would be a pleasure.

    Leviticus (425a78)

  120. CVS says it needs ID because testing is authorized by each State but only for its residents, so they need to verify the person being tested is a resident of that State. They probably also want it for data and followup purposes, in the case of positive results, and to track results for first responders, grocery store employees, and other people who have contact with the public.

    DRJ (15874d)

  121. I guess the States are paying for these tests, not the federal government.

    DRJ (15874d)

  122. In Texas, the State and local health departments can get ID and job information as a matter of public health. They are supposed to trace the positive cases to determine where they were and who they might have exposed. Some health departments have done excellent jobs, even when the patients were deceptive. Others have done very little.

    DRJ (15874d)

  123. On your recommendation, Simon Jester, I have also been listening to the podcasts. They are enjoyable, fully informational, and although they are experts in their field, they are able to lay it out so that someone like me can at least grasp the basics. I appreciate their personal tone and humor, as well.

    We have a media FULL of folks (who have little to no training in science, let alone virology) screaming the scariest headlines possible…and those folks really don’t know what they are talking about.

    I take your caution seriously. Last night I read a report about this very thing: “MAYBE having had SARS-COV-2 doesn’t confer immunity,” along with another report suggesting that an overuse of ventilators may be a problem. I was talking with a physician friend, with 40 years of experience, part of it including research, and he too warned about the incomplete picture these reports painted, saying: the report lacked accurate source info, and read as if someone interpreted other information incorrectly, without regard to the full picture. (He went into more detail, but this was the relevant part.)

    I’m glad that both of you are in agreement.

    Dana (0feb77)

  124. Thank you, Dana and DRJ.

    Simon Jester (6067ca)

  125. “I’m not watching the Daily Free Media for Trump Show any longer”

    Best quarantine entertainment you’ll ever see, though you would have learned far more from unblocking all the racist hate accounts in your replies in January then waiting for their basic points to filter up the governmental chain. I’d like to say ‘lessons learned’, but sadly there seems to be little of that in evidence.

    “What we need — and what we don’t seem to have — is a plan.”

    None of our plans survived contact with a NOVEL coronavirus, because the plans we had were made by people who had profit maximization for themselves-not their businesses, communities, or countries. Case in point:

    “I was talking with a physician friend, with 40 years of experience, part of it including research, and he too warned about the incomplete picture these reports painted, saying: the report lacked accurate source info, and read as if someone interpreted other information incorrectly, without regard to the full picture.”

    I was talking with a physician associate about Chinavirus back in January, and was immediately rebuffed with the usual ‘just the flu’ taking points, and made it a point to discuss it more loudly within earshot with non-docs rather than wasting my time talking to him. Come March they were far, far, FAR more sheepish and apologetic, but that’s organizational groupthink for you and I’m not really MAD at him for following his lines, no one else was reading the same group of crazies I was.

    Big Hospital loves their expensive elective surgeries, administrative boards, long lines, maximally invasive procedures, high-tech equipment, proprietary drugs, and general aura of infallibility, and is very annoyed by a disease that cancels the usefulness of most of them, can be treated or possibly prevented by drugs you could normally get off-the-shelf (CQ was issued as a matter of course for international travelers going to places with lots of foreign viruses!), and strongly discourages recent trends of ‘efficient hospital space usage’ by cramming you in with a whole bunch of other patients for maximum dollars per foot.

    Every early report that came out of China before they shut down the initial truthful Tiktoks and started paying Twitter’s moderators to be maximum WokeScolds on anything CoV-related turned out to be true or worse than it seemed a few months later. The notion that this virus may not be as easily immunized against has so far been the only part of the initial rumor mill flurry that hasn’t yet been confirmed by experimental procedure, but the chances are good that it’ll be more like shingles or herpes, returning seasonally. Pray that it isn’t, but don’t look to institutional experts to see things that they’re financially and governmentally discouraged from seeing.

    Talk to doctors, sure, but also talk to ambulance drivers, orderlies, and anyone whose career options don’t depend on speaking about the most profitable options for their profession and career.

    Kung Flu Hustle (ba5c4f)

  126. 10. Ragspierre (d9bec9) — 4/9/2020 @ 9:24 am

    The Dust Bowl was a coincidence that happened during the Depression, and had little to do with it but for the fact that the economy was so weak.

    I think the Oklahoma dust Bowl was caused by the Great Depression.

    Reducing coal burning by about one third, increased temperatures (by reducing particulate matter in the atmosphere- the long term lowering effect of reduced CO2 would take years to have an effect)
    and reduced rainfall.

    It was not q coincidence.

    You can;t judge economic conditions by movies.

    The flu pandemic of 1918 caused little permanent effect, and the effect was less in the areas that shut down more (because fewer workers died) but that was the average person didn’t owe any money, except maybe for rent, and even if evicted it was easy to rent again)

    And the banks didn’t fail.

    This time we have instant Great Depression and the remedies are not eared to avoiding defaulting on debt.

    Sammy Finkelman (7cd5f4)

  127. 125. Dana (0feb77) — 4/9/2020 @ 8:02 pm

    along with another report suggesting that an overuse of ventilators may be a problem.

    It is, is, it is, and everybody in government is still going around talking and begging for ventilators. And that’s another problem
    problem with Dr. Fauci and company. He cautions about everything except ventilators.

    I was beginning to suspect ventilators wren;t so good even before I read (a little late) the article on page 3 of the New York of Tuesday, April 7, 2020.

    Which I thought would have been better as a screaming headline on page one:

    Emergency Room Doctor: Ventilators kill Virus Patients.

    He didn’t quite say that but that’s the meaning of what he did say.

    Harm = Kill +in this context.

    The editor of the New York Post would have taken a risk, ad e put this on page 1 with a headline ike that but he’d get some attention to the matter, and maybe save some lives..

    It;s too late for Kevin’s fiend but maybe that could help others.

    The doctor quit his exact position because his conscience wouldn’t allow him to continue to follow the treatment protocol. He wasn’t enough of a big shot at Maimonides Hospital in Brooklyn to correct it.

    https://nypost.com/2020/04/06/nyc-doctor-says-coronavirus-ventilator-settings-are-too-high

    Here’s his YouTube video:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QWaq8HoEROU

    And this is backed up by an article in the Wall Street Journal of Friday April 10.

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/doctors-are-improvising-coronavirus-treatments-then-quickly-sharing-them-11586436031

    In mid-March, as U.S. hospitals scrambled for ventilators to treat a surge of coronavirus cases, a Vermont pulmonologist proposed a different treatment on a blog popular with emergency-medicine doctors.

    Joshua Farkas observed in the post on the EMCrit blog that many Covid-19 patients seemed to benefit from less-invasive alternatives to help their breathing, including pressure therapy used to treat sleep apnea—sometimes referred to as CPAP, for continuous positive airway pressure. Soon, a Milan doctor weighed in, offering encouraging statistics on CPAP use from his hard-hit hospital. U.S. health-care workers sought guidance and a physiotherapist in Denmark gave tips for securing CPAP equipment.

    emerging theory about the treatment of Covid-19 patients, which in recent weeks has taken hold in U.S. hospitals. In New York City, where ventilators are in perilously short supply, doctors say they have since embraced CPAP and other treatments to improve breathing in Covid-19 patients.

    [Now more are dying even thought there are fewer new admissions, I’m wondering if it is because of the ventilators.[

    The shift is one example of how health-care workers are writing the playbook for treating coronavirus patients on the fly, knowing they can’t wait for peer-reviewed articles or studies in established medical journals. Instead they are tapping into social media, podcasts, inside-baseball medical blogs and text-message groups to share improvised solutions to supply shortages and patient care, forcing hospitals to quickly re-evaluate their practices.

    {Not relying on peer-reviewed articles? Heresy!!]

    …part of a movement known as FOAM or FOAMed—free open access medical education—a network of podcasts and blogs that has grown up in the past decade or so, where health-care workers can share medical resources and ideas. FOAM has been around for years, but its advocates say it has proven particularly vital in the battle against Covid-19 as a platform for rigorous exchange of practitioner insight and advice, occupying a middle ground between sweeping medical studies and the unchecked chaos of an internet search.

    …“I can’t imagine how you could possibly do this in a pre-internet world,” said Reuben Strayer, associate medical director of emergency medicine at Maimonides Medical Center in Brooklyn. “How could you communicate about a disease nobody knows anything about that is marching across the planet?”

    Dr. Strayer has launched a Covid-19 data-sharing program on his blog, Emergency Medicine Updates, featuring real-time, anonymized patient data from Maimonides’ intensive care unit. His Twitter account features tips for handling cardiac arrest in Covid patients and observations about how many patients seemed to breathe fine despite “shockingly low” blood-oxygen levels.

    Sammy Finkelman (7cd5f4)


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