Patterico's Pontifications

4/8/2020

What Is the Plan?

Filed under: General — Patterico @ 8:18 am



Donald J. Trump on Twitter:

In response, let me repeat a very nasty question — the type of question only someone at CNN would ask, very nasty — asked by Jake Tapper (see, I told you! CNN! next question!) the other day:

What is the plan, other than advising people to forget about it?

Any plan for gradual lifting of social distancing requires a massive testing effort to identify (hopefully) immune people with antibodies, as well as a Manhattan Project to develop therapies and eventually a vaccine.

I don’t get the sense all of that is happening, at least to the degree it must if there is a hope to “OPEN UP OUR GREAT COUNTRY” “sooner rather than later.” I get the sense that the efforts at the top of the executive branch are geared towards wishful thinking, and shouting down anyone not willing to engage in it.

I hope I’m wrong.

P.S I had thought about writing a post about the latest garbage article being passed around by the Fluthers (h/t: Caleb Howe) but I put everything I had to say in one nice compact tweet with screenshots. Just click on all the screenshots and this thing refutes itself.

Btw, I like Gene Epstein a lot. It bothers me that he’s falling for such obvious tripe.

183 Responses to “What Is the Plan?”

  1. Laying out a plan would drive accountability. I think his strategy is to spin whatever happens as a great outcome and claim that he’s awesome.

    Time123 (653992)

  2. Poor Duh Donald. He SO in over his stupid head!

    Ragspierre (d9bec9)

  3. This is what tyranny looks like, folks.

    I’d think twice before going out for another walk in the park, Pat.

    Gryph (08c844)

  4. I think his strategy is to spin whatever happens as a great outcome and claim that he’s awesome.

    That’s half right. If the economy face-plants, then its someone else’s fault.

    KenL (6340ff)

  5. As from yesterday, Tyranny would be them NOT letting him out of the car after 10 minutes and the police apologizing.

    Words have meaning, tyranny doesn’t mean what think it means.

    Colonel Klink (Ret) (305827)

  6. The Plan, comrades, is for mayors and governors to start lifting the restrictions when, and as, they see fit;
    for businesses to follow when, and as, they see fit under the new legal climate;
    and for the OBOAB (Orange Boil On America’s Butt) to steal the credit (and there will be credit to be stolen because America is strong and resilient) along with all the stimulus money he can get his stubby fingers on.

    In the first place, that’s what’s been going on for the last three-plus years already;
    and in the second place, can anybody see it working out differently with this incompetent, corrupt, criminal, OBOAB administration? The Trump so-called Presidency is the best argument against Central Planning since Lysenkoism.

    nk (1d9030)

  7. Wow, what an awful tweet. He wants to forget about it and not learn lessons. I mean that’s exact opposite what we want in leaders.

    tla (7ab14a)

  8. The curve HAS been flattened anywhere is is GOING to be flattened. The New Yorkers who still (STILL!) pack themselves into subway trains are never going to listen. Anyone at risk should plan on taking care of themselves rather than expect everyone else to do it for them.

    The first wave of this will end sometime in late May or early June, and be declining by the end of this month. At that point the political demand to reopen the country will be overwhelming and resisting that will lead to civil unrest. If I had to design a plan to foment generational warfare, a continued shutdown would be a good start.

    What will happen is this: Society will open back up, seniors and others at risk will continue their safe practices (and some without support will be given support), plus cheap, accurate and mandatory testing, with enforced quarantines and probably cell phone GPS histories used to backtrack contacts.

    (Which is what we would have done if we had a sensible president with the political capital to assume the dictatorial powers he would have had to invoke in late January.)

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  9. 6. 8. So in other words, we didn’t have a plan in the first place accept for government to rule by diktat for as long as necessary (which it wasn’t) and by whatever means necessary (which it wasn’t). America. What a country!

    Gryph (08c844)

  10. What were seeing is called “Executive Cartesian Logic” – I thought about it, therefore it must have already happened.

    John B Boddie (286277)

  11. Name one thing during this entire pandemic season, where you have seen a coherent and sensible plan put into place with precision and consistency. When Trump continually disagrees and says the opposite of what his experts have just said, and when he continually babbles on about that which he doesn’t know and tries to manage this whole thing by the seat of his pants, why on earth would anyone entertain the thought that there might be an actual plan coming from the President?

    Dana (0feb77)

  12. There will be about 80,000 US deaths by August, when the first wave is done. That is about twice what we lose to the flu each year, and among the same at-risk groups. Considering that this disease is about 10 times WORSE than the flu, the US is doing pretty good given our general lack of preparation.

    Then we will have until about November to have a vaccine, an effective anti-viral, and be thoroughly prepared for the next wave with mandatory weekly tests and quarantines for those who test positive.

    We cannot survive an 18-month shutdown. Even government workers will be out of jobs by then, and most of us will be wearing barrels. Anyone who thinks that’s possible is a fool.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  13. why on earth would anyone entertain the thought that there might be an actual plan coming from the President?

    Who said that would happen? But a commission (entry rules: IQ over 140 and a real-world job) might manage to come up with one in short order. It’s not that hard if you aren;’t a fracking idiot.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  14. LOL @ Fluthers.

    Gryph, mistakes happen all the time. The reason that doesn’t look like tyranny is that you’re reading about it in the press, the government talking about its decisions, and sticking to the constitution (though I understand you don’t agree with that interpretation of how the constitution works).

    he curve HAS been flattened anywhere is is GOING to be flattened.

    I strongly disagree. The USA is just too damn big. To diverse. We aren’t like China (not that they are telling the truth) and we aren’t like anywhere in Europe. There are parts of this country where this is on the way down and parts where it has barely begun. This is why Trump should be much more careful about his analysis because it’s clearly based on New York and Florida, and not places like Oklahoma or New Mexico or even Texas.

    There’s going to be a notion over the next few days that the flattening of the curve part is over, so we might as well relax. That could overwhelm all these parts of the country that need that curve flattened the most for want of medical centers.

    We aren’t one homogeneous country that can flip on and off like a switch at our president’s command. I get that Trump wants to be upbeat. I even like that if only he could be honest and credible in his confidence.

    Dustin (fa728c)

  15. We cannot survive an 18-month shutdown. Even government workers will be out of jobs by then, and most of us will be wearing barrels. Anyone who thinks that’s possible is a fool.

    Or even in contemplation.

    Ragspierre (d9bec9)

  16. Who said that would happen? But a commission (entry rules: IQ over 140 and a real-world job) might manage to come up with one in short order. It’s not that hard if you aren;’t a fracking idiot.

    As I mentioned in my comment, Trump can’t even accept what his experts are saying! He has repeatedly disagreed with the experts, countered them, and scoffed at them. And this is basically his own coronvarirus commission. I think it’s foolish to think his basic off-the-cuff style of “governing” would change, no matter what. And it’s foolish to think that he would be agreeable to a plan established by others, because the problem isn’t necessarily that he wants to come out of this with bragging rights. He wants to come out of this being completely in charge and the one making the plan (which he is wholly incapable of doing).

    Dana (0feb77)

  17. @ Dustin,

    Trump should be much more careful about his analysis

    There’s a lot of funny in this…

    Dana (0feb77)

  18. The following would happen in an 18-month shutdown:

    The collapse of Social Security and Medicare
    Failures of half of the Fortune 500 and every last small business.
    Massive layoffs in state and local government.
    60% unemployment
    Government debt exceeding $30 trillion and climbing interest rates.
    Near-zero tax revenue and inflating money printed by the truckload.
    Civil disorder and rioting in every city.

    But we’d be “safe.”

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  19. As I mentioned in my comment, Trump can’t even accept what his experts are saying!

    Impeachment remains on the table. So does the short-form method.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  20. Dr. Gottlieb has a plan for when to restart the economy. He should be on the Coronavirus Task Force.

    Paul Montagu (f57f23)

  21. The following would happen in an 18-month shutdown:

    Which nobody but Kevin even suggests is possible. Magical thinking is FUN and easy!

    Ragspierre (d9bec9)

  22. Trump can’t even accept what his experts are saying! He has repeatedly disagreed with the experts, countered them, and scoffed at them.

    Dana, if it’s good news for Trump, it’s true. If it’s not convenient, it’s ignored. That’s 90% of the fake news meme, albeit it doesn’t help that the press are a bunch of liars, especially as Trump winds them up. We have a lot of recursive stupid cycles.

    Dustin (fa728c)

  23. Dustin, the problem with “flattening the curve” (and look at my link to see that it HAS been flattened in places) is that it is a single meme that ignores all other factors, and it relies on the idiotic “if everyone would just…” lead-in to some impossible suggestion.

    Very few people under 30 are taking this seriously. Others just cannot afford to lose work, or isolate, or avoid travel, or even distance themselves. Again, look at the NY subway — the entire NY metropolitan are is utterly dependent on mass transit. That majority of people there have no cars and many of them have never learned to drive. They take the subway or bus for daily tasks.

    In any event, the economic system is close to collapse. They have printed $2 trillion in funny money already and are now planning on printing $3 trillion more — just to get us to June. If the economy does not restart soon, it really won’t matter what this virus does.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  24. Which nobody but Kevin even suggests is possible. Magical thinking is FUN and easy!

    Pack to trolling and putting words in people’s mouths again. I said nothing of the sort. [Expletives deleted.]

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  25. I’ve read that in-home death rates in NYC are about 10 times the normal rate. And those likely won’t be reported as COVID-19. The reason for the restrictions decreed by other cities & counties & states is so that the same thing won’t happen all over, and so that asymptomatic carriers don’t make other people very sick.

    Radegunda (0e8745)

  26. OK. Point to anyone suggesting an 18 month shut-down besides Kevin.

    The following would happen in an 18-month shutdown:

    Those are your words, and I’m just quoting you. I’ll forego pointing out your nasty response fully.

    Ragspierre (d9bec9)

  27. Very few people under 30 are taking this seriously. Others just cannot afford to lose work, or isolate, or avoid travel, or even distance themselves.

    Kevin M, I agree with both of these statements. And that speaks to the tension with “opening the economy” (for lack of a better term): finding the right balance between health risks and economic survival. With that, the question for me is, do I trust Trump to make those assessments? Will he listen to his experts and advisers who can provide him with the most solid information possible – not couching it to appease him or to stay in his good graces, and certainly not present something simply because it backs up what he believes? Because I have not seen a consistent history of him making smart, calculated and prudent decisions for the betterment of Americans, I am very reasonably concerned that there really is no plan. It’s an off-the-cuff-by-the-seat-of-his-pants-moment-by-moment-ever-changin plan.

    Dana (0feb77)

  28. *click*

    Much better.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  29. The plan is for the MSM and NeverTrump to continue to look for ways to point the finger of blame at Trump to worsen his credibility.

    After the last four years, the problem for them is there’s more than enough ruined credibility to go around.

    Colonel Haiku (b7bcc1)

  30. With that, the question for me is, do I trust Trump to make those assessments?

    I only trust Trump to care about his own self. This may include listening to people who tell him what he needs to do to survive. But no, I don’t trust Trump to zip his own fly. Biden, in his current condition, is no better yet this is the choice the two bankrupt parties have to offer.

    God help us, but not trusting Trump is no reason to choose a stupid plan.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  31. Dustin, the problem with “flattening the curve” (and look at my link to see that it HAS been flattened in places) is that it is a single meme that ignores all other factors, and it relies on the idiotic “if everyone would just…” lead-in to some impossible suggestion.

    Very few people under 30 are taking this seriously. Others just cannot afford to lose work, or isolate, or avoid travel, or even distance themselves. Again, look at the NY subway — the entire NY metropolitan are is utterly dependent on mass transit. That majority of people there have no cars and many of them have never learned to drive. They take the subway or bus for daily tasks.

    In any event, the economic system is close to collapse. They have printed $2 trillion in funny money already and are now planning on printing $3 trillion more — just to get us to June. If the economy does not restart soon, it really won’t matter what this virus does.

    Kevin M (ab1c11) — 4/8/2020 @ 9:50 am

    I agree with many of your premises.

    Yes, it’s been successful. America is awesome and we’ve beaten a lot of expectations through sacrifice and common love for our neighbors. Sometimes I don’t see that due to my work experience and living in politics discussions where people hate eachother. But we are awesome and we did flatten the curve.

    Though I agree a lot of idiots who are younger aren’t taking this seriously, it’s that ‘perfect is enemy of the good thing’.

    Maybe you’re right about the economic collapse. I won’t pretend to understand that.

    Here’s my counter proposal. Let local governments make the decision. Be federalist about it. Donald Trump can say, for the first time in his life, this isn’t about him and he’s going to recognize that New York City and Albuquerque are at different points in their fight. Meanwhile, federal focus should be on limiting the exchange of virus from place to place, while those places figure out how much they can get back to more normalcy.

    Still, as soon as any city does, they will have a rapid second wave. That will also cause economic damage. We’re in deep kimchi.

    Dustin (fa728c)

  32. Re-opening will be in phases and be regional, in practice. Things should be closer to normal in June.

    Colonel Haiku (b7bcc1)

  33. Anyone at risk should plan on taking care of themselves rather than expect everyone else to do it for them.

    That’s fine for people who can do that, like sealing off nursing homes and staying at home in isolation. But what about our hospitals and healthcare workers? IMO this has always been about them. We must try to keep it manageable for them for their sakes and ultimately for ours.

    I doubt it will take a year nationwide but it might take 3 months in each town/region, and 6-9 months overall, because the virus will migrate to different places over time (as we’ve already seen).

    DRJ (15874d)

  34. The plan is for the MSM and NeverTrump to continue to look for ways to point the finger of blame at Trump to worsen his credibility.

    Is this a zen koan? I mean there are so many easy ways to blame Trump for all the incredible screw ups in what all men and women of sound mind recognize as the worst presidency in American history. Yet how do you make Trump’s credibility any worse? His only supporters are zealous and silly at this point.

    This is a task both easy and impossible.

    Dustin (fa728c)

  35. Articles bout an 18-month shutdown

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  36. Remember when we started to wonder if happyfeet was cleverly satirizing Trump fans, but over time we became worried that if he’s really joking he is crazy to stay in character that much?

    That’s Trump support pretty much. They all sound that way to me now.

    Dustin (fa728c)

  37. The problem with trying to estimate timeframes is that it will vary from place to place, depending on population density, demographics, and any number of factors. Also, there is the possibility of secondary outbreaks if the restrictions are lifted to early. How quickly a vaccine will be available, increased testing, and social distancing are also part of the equation. At best, we are just making best guesses as informed by what we read.

    I would like to think that Trump knows far more than we do, with regard to accessing critical information, but I’m not seeing evidence of that, given the randomness of his “plan”.

    Dana (0feb77)

  38. Ok. Any thoughts on my comment, Kevin?

    DRJ (15874d)

  39. Never mind. You were talking to someone else.

    DRJ (15874d)

  40. But what about our hospitals and healthcare workers? IMO this has always been about them. We must try to keep it manageable for them for their sakes and ultimately for ours.

    If the 65+ folks are out of the line of fire, that cuts down the patient load by a factor of 5. If testing is ubiquitous and quarantine is mandatory that cuts down the transmission rate by a lot. We should have 15-minute result accurate tests by May. This is what we would have had in place in March if we had started in December.

    The country cannot go on much longer like this. Things that can’t go on won’t. This isn’t just Trump. By June it will be everyone. See, for example, this article in The Atlantic.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  41. 35. Nope, Kevin. WAVING your hand at Google returns a bunch of pieces about shutting down the L train for maintenance and ONE comment about how airlines survive a (magical) 18 month shut down.

    Try again. In my pretty expansive reading, you’re unique!

    Ragspierre (d9bec9)

  42. DRJ, I’d never be that disrespectful to you.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  43. Let local governments make the decision. Be federalist about it.

    I like this approach. The needs of NYC and it’s densely population and (including crowded subways and public transportation systems) are not going to be the same as North Dakota. Local governments have a birds-eye view, and thus would be able to be more specific to address the needs of each individual location, as opposed to a one-size-fits-all.

    Dana (0feb77)

  44. I second Haiku at #32, start with the NW quarter of the country, as east as Dakotas and Nebraska and yes include Seattle if for nothing more than a Guinea pig of a former hot zone.

    urbanleftbehind (9007f5)

  45. Still, as soon as any city does, they will have a rapid second wave. That will also cause economic damage.

    Testing and quarantine will blunt any “second wave”. That’s the plan, near as I can tell, from the people that Trump won’t listen to.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  46. From a public-health standard, the pandemic will not end for another 18 months. The only complete resolution—a vaccine—could be at least that far away. The development of a successful vaccine is both difficult and not sufficient. It must also be manufactured, distributed, and administered to a nation’s citizens. Until that happens, as recent reports from the U.S. government and from scientists at London’s Imperial College point out, we will be vulnerable to subsequent waves of the new coronavirus even if the current wave happens to ebb.

    None of which means that people now hunkered down at home will keep doing so through late 2021. The economic consequences of an indefinite lockdown are unsustainable. And at a certain point, the emotional tensions that staying home imposes upon families, as spouses grate upon each other and children get bored and fall behind on their schoolwork, become a danger to domestic harmony, and maybe even to everyone’s sanity.

    From The Atlantic. Nobody suggests an 18 month shut-down.

    Ragspierre (d9bec9)

  47. BTW, people like me, who are in the high-risk group, may well continue our isolation and other precautions even after they are no longer mandatory. I expect you will see people wearing masks an gloves when out in public for some time. Maybe forever.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  48. Reports that California needs to see four things happen before lessening its restrictions:

    1) Hospitals have to be able to safely treat all patients that need to be hospitalized (ICU beds available, necessary equipment, personnel)

    2) Need 14 days of falling numbers, which would require intensively increased testing.

    3) State needs to be able test everyone who has symptoms.

    4) State has to more effectively monitor confirmed cases (know where they are, who they are in contact with).

    Dana (0feb77)

  49. DRJ’s point is right that there are two competing issues. The management of medical capacity vs economic interests for the rest of us. They seem to be at cross purposes, but I think that’s an illusion. I think if we overwhelm the former it will actually wind up causing more damage to the latter.

    Instead of Trump making this a damn political fight so his fans can associate problems with the ‘bad guy ooga booga nevertrumpters’, and instead of Trump deciding what to do, state and local governments should ask their hospitals when to cancel or amend these stay at home programs. The governor should have a meeting with the people running each major hospital in each state where this is discussed.

    Dustin (fa728c)

  50. Bloated Wall Street capitalists on Wall Street do not seem pessimistic. Dow is climb haltingly but make gain of more than 4,000 points in last two weeks. So whom you believe, comrades? The defeatist comrades or bloated Wall Street capitalists?

    nk (1d9030)

  51. I second Haiku at #32, start with the NW quarter of the country, as east as Dakotas and Nebraska and yes include Seattle if for nothing more than a Guinea pig of a former hot zone.

    urbanleftbehind (9007f5) — 4/8/2020 @ 10:23 am

    While it is appealing to see this as a national strategy where we phase it from a central planner on the federal level, I hope they let each state make its decision and be accountable for it. For example, Seattle might need more recovery time than other places when their wave passes, if their people are sick or exhausted in a way other places aren’t. I agree they are a place to watch.

    Nebraska probably is on the let side of the curve. This really is basically two countries.

    Dustin (fa728c)

  52. Dustin, there’s more than just Trump’s fans making this political. I dcould rewrite your comment as follows:

    Instead of Trump’s opponents making this a damn political fight so his detractors can associate problems with the ‘orange boil guy ooga booga trumpists’

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  53. Reports that California needs to see four things happen before lessening its restrictions:

    Yes. Of course.

    As for the first point, IHME suggests that the peak will come in CA on April 13, and at the peak they will have over 20,000 spare hospital beds and over 1200 spare ICU beds. They will need less than 700 ventilators, which they should have by now.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  54. #53

    I am not favoring one side or the other. I find using Trump to score points in a debate that IS NOT ABOUT Trump to be annoying. A pox on both their houses.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  55. I don’t agree, Kevin. Trump is the president and he’s able to unite or divide, to pick fights or not. He is constantly driving us apart. His disastrous presidency speaks for itself.

    Compare with Bush, who got plenty of ‘fake news’ and opposition, but constantly strove to unite us. Defending Bush didn’t require the kinds of argumentation defending Trump does. Bush did not make everything a damn political fight, especially disasters.

    Dustin (fa728c)

  56. Realistically, COVID-19 will be here for the next 18 months or more. We will not be able to return to normalcy until we find a vaccine or effective medications. I know that’s dreadful news to hear. How are people supposed to find work if this goes on in some form for a year and a half? Is all that economic pain worth trying to stop COVID-19? The truth is we have no choice.

    If we prematurely end that physical distancing and the other measures keeping it at bay, deaths could skyrocket into the hundreds of thousands if not a million. We cannot return to normal until there’s a vaccine. Conferences, concerts, sporting events, religious services, dinner in a restaurant, none of that will resume until we find a vaccine, a treatment, or a cure.

    Not seeing any call for a “shut-down” in there.

    Your second link is busted.

    Ragspierre (d9bec9)

  57. On the other hand, NY peaks today and is woefully short of hospital beds and ICU.

    ICU need: 5900 ICU available: 718
    Bed need: 22,000 Available: 13,000

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  58. I hear some buzzing.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  59. And like it or not, this is Trump’s pandemic.

    This isn’t ‘orange man bad’. This is ‘bad leadership is bad’. No other president would have done this poorly. Even a cabinet on auto-pilot, Dr. Fauci, Bob Gates, and John Bolton with a president golfing all day, would have handled this much better.

    Delay got Trump through his precious impeachment fight (that he would be in real trouble with today, if you think about it).

    Then trump picked fights with GM over ventilators, Canada and Germany over medical supplies, 3M over masks, governors over how much ‘appreciation’ and praise they showed Trump, fights over which medical treatment is the real cure, etc. This tendency of Trump to make this about stupid fights, so every problem is deflected to an attack on his mean mean critics, is stupid, and it’s hurt our nation’s ability to address this crisis. I’m surprised you’re playing along with that. It’s extremely stupid, and the GOP deserves what it’s going to get for it.

    Dustin (fa728c)

  60. His disastrous presidency speaks for itself.

    It was a disastrous election, between a corrupt billionaire and a corrupt apparatchik. I voted for neither. The next one will be as disastrous. Again I hope to have another choice.

    Both parties have failed terribly. The last time we had this bankrupt a political class (1844-1860) a civil war followed.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  61. And like it or not, this is Trump’s pandemic.

    How does this help?

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  62. How does this help?

    Recognizing reality is the first essential to dealing with reality.

    Ragspierre (d9bec9)

  63. Of course there isn’t a plan. There never has been and never will be. Trump has gutted all the agencies and departments that could have formulated a plan, diddled and dawdled, lied and misled, pushed phony prescriptions, but hey he’s got high hopes.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Buq40brGDTY&list=RDBuq40brGDTY&start_radio=1

    We’re heading into a severe recession, perhaps a greater depression. There’s no way this ends well.

    Gawain's Ghost (b25cd1)

  64. I notice that none of the Pro-Trump, sort of pro-trump, or anti-MSM people have responded by summarizing or linking to the plan.

    Time123 (6e0727)

  65. Kevin M-

    …seniors and others at risk will continue their safe practices (and some without support will be given support)….

    In order to open the economy by May, at-risk populations should be forcibly isolated from the general population, including seniors and any others with pre-existing conditions. The Army Corps of Engineers should be building isolation facilities at the FEMA relocation camps for them. /sarc

    RipMurdock (d2a2a8)

  66. Washington State has already peaked. Hospital needs has been dropping since the 2nd (and they had enough beds then). Deaths peaked on the 6th. They will drop to zero by early May.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  67. Dana @48, that’s an excellent formula for pretty much all states. However, I note that some of the states being mentioned are not chock-a-block with medical facilities, and might be unable to deal even with a small load from a relatively small population.

    Ragspierre (d9bec9)

  68. How does this help?

    I take it you mean by bashing Trump I’m dividing myself from his fans, but as someone who will always criticize poor leadership, no matter who it is, Trump fans already think I’m the devil, so this costs nothing. In other words, how does it hurt?

    I know you understand how criticizing corruption and incompetence can be good for government performance and improvement. I could bloviate like I always do about it but it also helps my mood. I genuinely enjoy, delight even, in bashing politicians. I don’t think my comments have any great purpose (and i realize they aren’t that profound or insightful).

    But I also don’t intend to troll Trump’s fans. I know that my honest appraisal of Trump does that, but it’s not my intention. I love it when a Trump supporter opens up that he sees a lot of the problem. This is happening more and more. That’s valuable but it’s a value they are creating, not me.

    Dustin (fa728c)

  69. #66: More putting words in people’s mouths. Frankly, if you expanded the current regime and applied such fascist methods, it would be the Millennials who will NOT follow the rules who would end up in camps, no doubt in little cages 6 feet apart.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  70. The next one will be as disastrous. Again I hope to have another choice.

    Both parties have failed terribly. The last time we had this bankrupt a political class (1844-1860) a civil war followed.

    Kevin M (ab1c11) — 4/8/2020 @ 10:48 am

    Yeah it’s bad. Amen.

    I am really hoping Captain Crozier runs for president with Admiral McRaven on the Polywog Party.

    Dustin (fa728c)

  71. The OBOAB is not part of the solution. He never has been. He is part of the problem. He will always be. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-watchdog/trump-slams-us-watchdogs-report-on-shortages-at-coronavirus-hit-hospitals-idUSKBN21P2NR

    nk (1d9030)

  72. I take it you mean by bashing Trump I’m dividing myself from his fan

    No by bashing Trump you are not accomplishing anything but, um, satisfying yourself.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  73. You will note that I expect any workable solution to happen despite Trump. Any group that has a fool at the top learns to work around him. See (ironically) Dilbert’s pointy-haired boss.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  74. It’s this kind of “Don’t you dare scold, Donnie!” that made the OBOAB what he is.

    nk (1d9030)

  75. …it would be the Millennials who will NOT follow the rules who would end up in camps, no doubt in little cages 6 feet apart.

    Hmmm… SO many benefits… It could work!

    Ragspierre (d9bec9)

  76. No by bashing Trump you are not accomplishing anything but, um, satisfying yourself.

    Why i never

    Dustin (fa728c)

  77. I wish that Trump would “pass from the scene.” ASAP. Pence would do a be3tter job and the GOP could run someone sane. But I seem unlikely to get this wish, as it has not been fulfilled since I started wishing it in May of 2016.

    So, I learn to accept things that I cannot change, and Trump is one of them. For now. Therefore, railing against him is like railing against the tide. Instead, I’d rather see how we can force his hand.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  78. our steely eyed president mr donald who is the galactic chess champion in all fourteen dimensions is keeping the plan super secret so as not to tip his hand to the virus

    the plan is likely so subtle that nobody will even know it has been set in motion until the mr donald tells us it worked so we can offer our well deserved veneration

    Dave (1bb933)

  79. It’s good that he won’t wear a mask though.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  80. Just think, though. If he fracks this up badly this summer and his support dwindles to the dead-enders, the GOP might pick someone else. I hope that it doesn’t turn out that badly, of course, but Trump’s fate is in his hands. I hope someone explains that to him.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  81. @70-
    I guess you missed the sarcasm tag.

    RipMurdock (d2a2a8)

  82. @11. Name one thing during this entire pandemic season, where you have seen a coherent and sensible plan put into place with precision and consistency.

    Howzabout two: USHS Comfort and USHS Mercy navigated with ‘precision and consistency’ safely to their destinations- one from San Diego to Los Angeles Harbor, the other from Newport News to New York Harbor.

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  83. I like this approach. The needs of NYC and it’s densely population and (including crowded subways and public transportation systems) are not going to be the same as North Dakota. Local governments have a birds-eye view, and thus would be able to be more specific to address the needs of each individual location, as opposed to a one-size-fits-all.

    I tend to think that this would be the ideal approach, but I think that the way the Republican party has lined up behind Trump as evidenced by the machinery that attacks anyone who dares cross him has effectively foreclosed that option. Once Trump announced it was not a big deal, etc., the stooges who want to please Trump got the message loud and clear. I don’t buy for a second that Georgia’s governor actually just recently learned that asymptomatic people can spread COVID-19. He was just following Trump’s lead.

    (BTW, thanks for the kind words about our adoption plan from the other day!)

    JohnnyAgreeable (1b878e)

  84. #82, no, I got the sarc, but still the comment easily misinterpreted, and it’s still not clear what point you were trying to make.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  85. A Rapid Test for Covid-19 Arrives Via a 20-year-old Technology Already in Many Hospitals

    In late March, the FDA approved the use of Cepheid’s GeneXpert rapid molecular diagnostic machines to test for the new coronavirus. The automated modules—5000 of which are already installed in U.S. health facilities, while 18,000 are in operation in other countries—don’t require a lab facility or special training to operate. What’s more, they generate accurate results in about 45 minutes. The modules use disposable cartridges, pre-filled with the required chemicals that are channeled around test chambers using microfluidics.

    While the cartridges had to be adapted to test for COVID-19, the microfluidic system itself dates back to the late 1990s, when Cepheid was cofounded in Silicon Valley by IEEE Fellow Kurt Petersen, a MEMS pioneer and winner of the 2019 IEEE Medal of Honor. (Cepheid went public in 2000 and Danaher acquired it in 2016.)

    The system was just a prototype in September 2001, when letters containing anthrax spores began to arrive at the offices of U.S. senators and journalists. Cepheid won a set of competitions held by the U.S. Postal Service aimed at helping it prevent anthrax from getting into the mail system. To this day, Cepheid systems, attached to mail sorting machines, screen most mail in the U.S.

    Since then, the company’s GeneXpert has been adapted to test for flu, strep, norovirus, chlamydia, tuberculosis, MRSA—and now, COVID-19.

    https://spectrum.ieee.org/view-from-the-valley/the-institute/ieee-member-news/a-rapid-test-for-covid19-arrives-via-a-20yearold-technology-already-in-many-hospitals

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  86. Meanwhile the Biden campaign apparently has special access to medical supplies that it is offering to its political supporters and denying to GOP governors.

    https://nypost.com/2020/04/06/biden-campaign-coronavirus-offer-making-governors-jobs-difficult/

    n the early hours of Monday morning, Joe Biden’s campaign sent an email to state leaders offering to connect them with desperately needed coronavirus resources.

    But at least two Republican states believe they never got the email, while one governor’s office said the campaign’s efforts to insert themselves in the pandemic was only making their jobs harder.

    In the email obtained by The Post, Biden’s political chief of staff Stacy Eichner told state officials that the former veep’s presidential campaign had received a “significant number of offers” from organizations and people eager to offer resources.

    But a senior adviser in one governor’s office who received the email said the Biden campaign was making their jobs “really difficult” by operating outside of the federal process and by refusing to engage with the administration’s efforts.

    “It actually makes our job harder. We have a process in place for deploying and acquiring resources, as well as engaging in missions,” the source said.

    “Having a group operating outside of that process complicates things and smells of cronyism,” he added.

    “It also begs the question of why aren’t these companies working with the feds directly, or if they are, why are they holding back needed resources for political reasons?

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  87. The plan is to go day to day, and pretend the social isolation will last less long than it is likely to, and not to change bureacrautic procedures.

    I read in a letter to the editor that physicist Richard Feynmann said, when he was critcized about his theory as to what caused the Challenger disaster – that it wasn’t predictable that when you don;t have data you must use reason.

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/modeling-the-path-of-the-coronavirus-epidemic-11586290393

    Messrs. Peiser and Montford’s questioning the use of data based on 13-year-old models brings to mind the admonishment given by Richard Feynman during the investigation of the Challenger explosion to a NASA manager who argued that their data didn’t signify the danger: “When you don’t have any data,” Feynman said, “you have to use reason.” An apt lesson for this current challenge.

    Larry W. White

    Use of reason isn’t happening enough. The close to official policy s to want proof – of any changes.

    Trump is at least pretending to reason about treatments.

    Now he wants to create a second coronavirus task force on the economy. But the two are not separate.

    Sammy Finkelman (7cd5f4)

  88. Once we OPEN UP OUR GREAT COUNTRY, and it will be sooner rather than later, the horror of the Invisible Enemy, except for those that sadly lost a family member or friend, must be quickly forgotten. Our Economy will BOOM, perhaps like never before!!

    Statements like “sooner rather than later” and “Our Economy will BOOM, perhaps like never before!!” are nonsense and Trump knows it.

    Also, this urge that all but close family members or friends ought to or “must” act like this never happened. His only hope ror the economy seems to be that things get back to normal. Not even people with colds staying home fr a few days. Or testing to see what disease somebody does have. They never do. We could learn a few things.

    Trump means by “quickly forgotten” things like going into restaurants and sports events Trump is really focused on getting sports seasons started.

    Sammy Finkelman (7cd5f4)

  89. I take it you mean by bashing Trump I’m dividing myself from his fans, but as someone who will always criticize poor leadership, no matter who it is, Trump fans already think I’m the devil, so this costs nothing. In other words, how does it hurt?

    By God, these times require such heroic keyboard kommandoing!

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  90. I take it you mean by bashing Trump I’m dividing myself from his fans, but as someone who will always criticize poor leadership, no matter who it is, Trump fans already think I’m the devil, so this costs nothing. In other words, how does it hurt?

    By God, these times require such heroic keyboard kommandoing!

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0) — 4/8/2020 @ 12:19 pm

    This is America dude. We’ve been poping of about the people in charge since before Ben Franklin impersonated a widow.

    Time123 (6e0727)

  91. This should be of interest to the “common sense” crowd. Does common sense dictate that we should get our economy off life support and quit attempting to euthanize it?

    Gryph (08c844)

  92. 91… I can’t praise heroism, without pushback? You’ve got a fever, and the only remedy is more heroism.

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  93. The plan is to ‘work the problem’ day by day.

    Revisit Apollo 13 – not the film, but the audio and transcripts of how smart, competent, managers who understood the strengths and limitations of their systems on hand engineered solutions as they prioritized problems and worked through them, established priorities and fielded issues w/incomplete data in a situation that literally changed hourly. The Apollo 13 CM splashed down with about 20% of its electrical power still remaining.

    ““I want you to get some guys figuring out minimum power in the LM to sustain life” – Gene Kranz, Flight Director, Apollo 13, 4-13-1970

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  94. This should be of interest to the “common sense” crowd. Does common sense dictate that we should get our economy off life support and quit attempting to euthanize it?

    The models aren’t suicide pacts. The facts are, most Americans are doing the right thing, you are the exception, doing the hard thing is why the models are trending downward. Actions have consequences, that most local officials and citizenry are doing what must be done, is the reason. I can’t tell if your happy that its working, or sad that its working. I know, I know, liberty and freedom is more important than community and death. The great tyranny of your inconvenience, blah, blah.

    TL:DR. It’s working, STFU.

    Colonel Klink (Ret) (305827)

  95. 57.

    We will not be able to return to normalcy until we find a vaccine or effective medications.

    Find and use them,

    Oh, there are effective medications. Synthetic antibodies just for one. ( But maybe that doesn’t give people mucch immunity, although till it hits body will be building up some.)

    D hydroxychloroquine, ALTHOUGH NOT THE BEST IDEA, is not useless. Trump was saying the other day that medical people should take it as a preventative. That was the context of his what do you have to lose. He was saying nurses and doctors should be offered it – voluntarily – but they should take it. Probably got that from somebody else, then slightly oversold it.

    Oh this – I think it’s wrong.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/06/us/politics/coronavirus-trump-malaria-drug.html

    Some hospitals in Sweden stopped providing hydroxychloroquine to treat the coronavirus after reports of adverse side effects, according to Swedish news media.

    I think it was the other anti-malarial drug that Swedish hospitals were using.

    The New York Times links to Newsweek article that says it was chloroquine that they stopped using:

    https://www.newsweek.com/swedish-hospitals-chloroquine-covid-19-side-effects-1496368

    And I don’t think they have yet issued a correction.

    Political bias is turning into medical bias.

    Sammy Finkelman (7cd5f4)

  96. Also potentially of some interest to the “common sense” crowd.

    Gryph (08c844)

  97. Chloroquine is not another word for hydroxychloroquine.

    Sammy Finkelman (7cd5f4)

  98. My county is where the first case was confirmed and where the first death occurred. Authorities are cautiously optimistic that we’ve peaked, but we’ve been mostly shut down since Mar 13th. Seattle isn’t far behind, and it looks like CA is doing reasonably well. Barring any big reversals, the west coast should be opening for business next month.

    Paul Montagu (f57f23)

  99. As recently as yesterday, this happened… And yes, I know it didn’t happen in California, but I’d be extra-cautious anyway driving out to the park to go walking.

    Gryph (08c844)

  100. That’s good news, Paul Montagu. I have family in Mason County, out in the middle of nowhere, and even their little hamlet has been hit with coronvirus. All things considered, California seems to be in good shape. Nursing homes have been hit hard, however. But they seem to be everywhere.

    Dana (0feb77)

  101. The changing estimates have always been based off the implementation of “full social distancing through May 2020″ and do not factor in another wave of the virus post-August 1.

    The no-sense crew left that part off the story.

    Ragspierre (d9bec9)

  102. Anita Shaffer went for a drive around her neighborhood on Sunday and came home with a $200 fine for violating Pennsylvania’s stay-at-home order that’s meant to contain the spread of COVID-19.

    That’s a stupid lie, especially from Reason, which is normally a lot better at editing.

    The truth is, the lady hasn’t…and likely won’t…be fined. She gets a hearing, and perhaps a trial if she elects.

    Ragspierre (d9bec9)

  103. as well as a Manhattan Project to develop therapies and eventually a vaccine

    Dr. Scott Gottlieb said a Mercury (rocket) project.

    I think that went faster.

    Sammy Finkelman (7cd5f4)

  104. New York City record death toll, but fewer hospital admissions and diagnosed cases.

    Sammy Finkelman (7cd5f4)

  105. This is America dude. We’ve been poping of about the people in charge since before Ben Franklin impersonated a widow.

    Time123 (6e0727) — 4/8/2020 @ 12:22 pm

    It’s just thin skin. Also jealousy. Trump fans don’t get upset at lefty hacks. But they get upset at conservatives who criticize both democrats and republicans. Somehow, that’s much much worse to them.

    Similarly, there’s no reasonable way to interpret my self-deprecating remarks as keyboard commando or self praise as heroic. That’s just too stupid to take seriously.

    Dustin (fa728c)

  106. >cheap, accurate and mandatory testing, with enforced quarantines and probably cell phone GPS histories used to backtrack contacts.

    mandatory testing should be free testing, otherwise poor people will not comply because they can’t afford to, and regardless of *their* needs, society needs everyone to comply.

    i’ll believe in widespread cheap or free testing when I see it. we’re *still* seriously undertesting, and I see no evidence to support the proposition that we’ll have enough testing capacity in four to six weeks for this to be feasible — just wishful thinking and empty proclamations.

    if we don’t have widespread cheap or free testing we just see another flare up like this, a month or two after we reopen.

    aphrael (7962af)

  107. >Impeachment remains on the table. So does the short-form method.

    not as long as he has 33 enablers in the Senate, it doesn’t.

    aphrael (7962af)

  108. The economic bill passed by Congress isn’t working very well. But it should have been obvious it wouldn’t unless somebody went through the details and saw that it did. Some things they made easy, but other things they didn’t.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/business/stocks-today-coronavirus.html

    https://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2020/04/03/business/ap-us-virus-outbreak-small-business-relief.html

    Ted Stein, who operates a small software business in West Virginia, filled out an online form Thursday through PNC Bank, saying he was interested in applying. On Friday, a bank representative told Stein he was unaware that the form was on its website. After Stein explained to him where to find it, the representative told Stein the bank wasn’t accepting applications and that he should keep checking his online account for guidance in the coming hours and days, Stein said.

    “It was almost comical, but heartbreaking. It’s tragicomedy, I guess,” he said.

    https://www.nytimes.com/article/small-business-loans-stimulus-grants-freelancers-coronavirus.html

    There have been a lot of problems getting the program off the ground as quickly as promised.

    The Treasury Department said the program would start taking applications on April 3, a week after the bill was signed into law. But the department didn’t give lenders necessary technical information until just hours before the program was scheduled to start — and lenders are still waiting for some key guidance and documents, bankers said. Many are still developing their application rules and systems.

    Sammy Finkelman (7cd5f4)

  109. >the peak will come in CA on April 13, and at the peak they will have over 20,000 spare hospital beds and over 1200 spare ICU beds.

    California take sa lot of justified ****, but our state and local governments have really done an unbelievably good job on this. I feel extraordinarily lucky to be here and not in NYC.

    aphrael (7962af)

  110. not as long as he has 33 enablers in the Senate, it doesn’t.

    If the charge is gross incompetence and he mucks this thing up, he won’t have them and he won’t have the nomination in any event.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  111. > the GOP might pick someone else. I hope that it doesn’t turn out that badly

    In an election between DeWine and Biden, I’d vote for DeWine.

    aphrael (7962af)

  112. > If the charge is gross incompetence and he mucks this thing up, he won’t have them and he won’t have the nomination in any event.

    only if he starts losing support among his base. is there any sign that’s happening?

    aphrael (7962af)

  113. Gryph, at 100: in California violating the order is a misdemeanor punishable by a fine or six months in prison. Where I live, there’s no support for imprisoning people for casual violations (although there might be support for it in the case of idiots holding 500 person guest weddings or the like). A fine is possible.

    aphrael (7962af)

  114. Barring any big reversals, the west coast should be opening for business next month.

    Yes, but things will be different. Such as: you will be getting a medical test of some sort on a daily basis at your place of business, and if you show symptoms, it’s off to the clinic for a real test. If you show the virus, you are sent to quarantine, and that might not be at home.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  115. In an election between DeWine and Biden, I’d vote for DeWine.

    In an election between Kasich and/or Biden and/or Trump, I’d vote for Kasich. And I hate Kasich.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  116. only if he starts losing support among his base. is there any sign that’s happening?

    Not yet, but wait for the March and April May and June primaries.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  117. I’m picking DeWine in particular because he’s a Republican governor who has done an *incredibly good* job of handling this situation, and I would think that if either party were to draft a last minute replacement, a governor who handled the pandemic well would be the best possible choice.

    aphrael (7962af)

  118. NJ postponed its primary to July.

    And while we’re talking about primaries, can I pause to express my absolute fury at the Wisconsin Legislature for not delaying yesterday’s primary?

    aphrael (7962af)

  119. R.I.P. Linda Tripp

    Icy (6abb50)

  120. Ten Weeks to Crush the Curve (New England Journal of Medicine)

    …..The economy is in the tank, and anywhere from thousands to more than a million American lives are in jeopardy. Most analyses of options and trade-offs assume that both the pandemic and the economic setback must play out over a period of many months for the pandemic and even longer for economic recovery. However, as the economists would say, there is a dominant option, one that simultaneously limits fatalities and gets the economy cranking again in a sustainable way.

    That choice begins with a forceful, focused campaign to eradicate Covid-19 in the United States. The aim is not to flatten the curve; the goal is to crush the curve. China did this in Wuhan. We can do it across this country in 10 weeks.
    …..
    1. Establish unified command.The President should surprise his critics and appoint a commander who reports directly to the President. ….This is not a coordinator across agencies. This commander carries the full power and authority of the American President to mobilize every civilian and military asset needed to win the war. Ask every governor to appoint an individual state commander with similar statewide authority. ……2. Make millions of diagnostic tests available. Not everyone needs to be tested, but everyone with symptoms does. The nation needs to gear up to perform millions of diagnostic tests in the next 2 weeks. This was key to success in South Korea…….3. Supply health workers with PPE and equip hospitals to care for a surge in severely ill patients.Ample supplies of PPE (personal protective equipment) should be standard issue to every U.S. health worker who is in the front lines caring for patients and testing for infection. We wouldn’t send soldiers into battle without ballistic vests; health workers on the front lines of this war deserve no less. ……4. Differentiate the population into five groups and treat accordingly. We first need to know who is infected; second, who is presumed to be infected (i.e., persons with signs and symptoms consistent with infection who initially test negative); third, who has been exposed; fourth, who is not known to have been exposed or infected; and fifth, who has recovered from infection and is adequately immune. We should act on the basis of symptoms, examinations, tests (currently, polymerase-chain-reaction assays to detect viral RNA), and exposures to identify those who belong in each of the first four groups. Hospitalize those with severe disease or at high risk.5. Inspire and mobilize the public.In this allout effort, everyone has a part to play and virtually everyone is willing. We have begun to unleash American ingenuity in creating new treatments and a vaccine, providing a greater variety and number of diagnostic tests, and using the power of information technology, social media, artificial intelligence, and high-speed computing to devise novel solutions. These efforts should be intensified. …..6. Learn while doing through real-time, fundamental research. Clinical care would be vastly improved by effective antiviral treatment, and every plausible avenue should be investigated. We did it with HIV; now, we need to do it faster with SARS-CoV-2. Clinicians need better predictors of which patient’s condition is prone to deteriorate rapidly or who may go on to die. Decisions to shape the public health response and to restart the economy should be guided by science. If we learn how many people have been infected and whether they are now immune, we may determine it’s safe for them to return to their jobs and resume more normal activities. ……

    RipMurdock (d2a2a8)

  121. Trump is eager to open the country. And he knows that the American people will hold him, not Fauci or anybody else, responsible for the pain that adherence to the ruling class’s estimates is causing and will cause us. Speculating why, nevertheless, Trump persists in lending legitimacy to these flawed professionals, indeed why he lets them speak in his name, is pointless.

    But Trump’s daily confusion of himself with Fauci et al.—no less real for being half-hearted—presses the question of how we may stop our pain and prevent the next bailout bill, and the ones after that, from locking the country in the grip of the ruling class even more than we ever feared when we elected Trump in 2016. One may wonder to what extent that question also presses on Donald Trump.

    One thing is certain: That the ruling class savors the grip on us that it has achieved during the past three weeks—above all the presumption that we must quietly accept non-legal decrees from on high. It will not give up that grip without a fight.

    Regardless of when Trump acts to reopen the country, they will do whatever is in their power to prevent him from exiting the path to political perdition which he has entered. They won’t give him a pass out of it, no matter what. Nothing that happens in April, or in May, June, or whenever, nothing that any curve does, will induce any of the ruling class to say, “OK, let’s all wash our hands, take precautions to protect the old and the obese, and get back to normal.”

    — – Angelo Codevilla

    https://amgreatness.com/2020/04/07/is-the-president-forgetting-politics-101/

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  122. Wuhancoronavirus has turned us all into dogs. We roam the house all day looking for food. We’re told “no” if we get too close to strangers. And we get really excited about car rides.

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  123. The plan?

    “Zinc!” – President Donald J. Trump, April 8, 2020

    So go suck on a penny, eh, Captain sir?!

    ‘In 1982, the US Mint began minting pennies coated in copper but containing primarily zinc. Zinc pennies pose a risk of zinc toxicosis, which can be fatal. One reported case of chronic ingestion of 425 pennies (over 1 kg of zinc) resulted in death due to gastrointestinal bacterial and fungal sepsis. Another patient who ingested 12 grams of zinc showed only lethargy and ataxia (gross lack of coordination of muscle movements). Several other cases have been reported of humans suffering zinc intoxication by the ingestion of zinc coins.’ -source, wikiloosechange

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  124. If I seem short with people, I’m sorry. I have two friends on respirators and one of them, whom I’ve known for 30 years, doesn’t look like she’s going to make it. And her mother passed last night. If I’ve lashed out at someone, it’s on me. Stressful time.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  125. With regard to organized science there is a good book:

    The End of Science’

    https://www.amazon.com/End-Science-Knowledge-Twilight-Scientific/dp/0465065929

    Here is something else:

    https://archives.frontpagemag.com/fpm/why-left-loves-and-hates-science-daniel-greenfield

    It’s not real science, it’s an infallibility cult…

    This is called
    scienticism.

    When eople want to say they;’re infallible, they say science. Infallibility is the whole basis of praisisng science. Ten you don;t actually need to defend your work. That’s why Karl Marx called what he said “scientifc socialism”

    Now I just don’t like the standards of proof for saying medical ideas work. It’s not the way to think

    Sammy Finkelman (7cd5f4)

  126. @126. Damn. You hang in there Kevin; one day at a time.

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  127. Ten Weeks to Crush the Curve (New England Journal of Medicine)

    The curve IS crushed many places. In those places the peak will come and go, and there will be deaths, but not as a result of triage. In other places the peak will pass anyway, just with more deaths that didn’t have to happen.

    And then the pandemic will end, temporarily. If we are stupid about it, the pandemic will return. If we do what we should have been doing in January — had we known the danger, and reacted correctly to that knowledge (lots of blame to go around here, mainly China and Trump, respectively). Testing, tracking, quarantine and common sense avoidance would have prevented the outbreak from crashing our economy, and going forward we know what to do.

    It is no longer about crushing the curve. It is about tracking and managing the vectors so that it doesn’t get out of control again.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  128. Damn. You hang in there Kevin; one day at a time.

    As I have for the last 11,696 days.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  129. “I want to throw that out there because that’s where they seem to have the best result,” Trump said. “You add the zinc and the azithromycin — we’ve had a lot of good stories.”

    Colonel Klink (Ret) (305827)

  130. Codevilla occasionally has something worthwhile to say. The piece cited above isn’t one. One thing we don’t need is a war between classes…real or imaginary.

    Speaking for mi own sef, and for all the people I observe going about their business carefully, we are NOT all dogs. We are rational human beings meeting an unforeseen crisis using the best information available.

    When we “re-open” it won’t be an event, but a process. Or it damn well had better be.

    Just FYI, I spoke with a daughter-in-law whose parents live on an island in Canada, population about 900. Two folks have presented with CV19. The rest of the island is acting according to good sense.

    Ragspierre (d9bec9)

  131. Trump says the obvious that he’s not a doctor, before arguing that he’s “a person with common sense.” Tremendous success with “hydroxy and zithro zinc” it could have been one word, couldn’t hear clearly due to the denture slurring.

    Colonel Klink (Ret) (305827)

  132. One thing we don’t need is a war between classes…real or imaginary.

    Or a war between generations, which is what might happen if we crush the dreams of younger people to offer a temporary protection to the old.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  133. Trump says the obvious that he’s not a doctor, before arguing that he’s “a person with common sense.”

    “Common sense” tells us all kinds of stupid things, not that that’s Trump’s excuse.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  134. I don’t know if this is true but I read that NY Hasidic Jews have not been social distancing. If so, at some point (when we have data), maybe they will be the control group that tells us whether social distancing helps and, if so, how much.

    DRJ (15874d)

  135. When we “re-open” it won’t be an event, but a process. Or it damn well had better be.

    Step 1: Test everyone. Quarantine all positives and track their recent contacts.
    Step 2: Most of us go back to work.
    Step 3: Test everyone again. Quarantine all positives and track their recent contacts.
    Step 4: See Step 3.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  136. Or a war between generations, which is what might happen if we crush the dreams of younger people to offer a temporary protection to the old.

    Seems we’ve been around this barn enough times that that particular straw man should have burned up from the friction.

    Ragspierre (d9bec9)

  137. FWIW, my area was doing a great job social distancing in the past 3 weeks. Not only were the roads and stores much less crowded but available data (like tracking cell phones) confirmed it, as well as lower COVID deaths compared to similarly sized/populated areas.

    Until today, because it looks like everyone decided to go back to work, shopping, and driving. There are limits to what folks can do and I think my area just hit that limit.

    DRJ (15874d)

  138. This cleaning with alcohol is total BS… NOTHING gets done after that first bottle.

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  139. Step 1: Test everyone. Quarantine all positives and track their recent contacts.

    I think that magic thinking (wonderful as it may be) has been dealt with up thread. We are a very long way from being able to do that, though a lot of very smart people are working toward that goal.

    Ragspierre (d9bec9)

  140. @113 I don’t think the Dems are going to take another shot at impeachment. If the Rs want it done, they are going to have to be pro-active about it and that’s not going to happen either.

    Nic (896fdf)

  141. On the briefing, Trump was talking about the 2 million tests done, the most, tremendous success. Dr. Birx clarified that we’ve a backlog of 1 million tests, either tests ready to be used, or tests that have samples taken but not yet run. She also clarified that individuals are requiring multiple tests based on protocols, so 2M tests does not mean we’ve tested 2M people, discounting.

    Also, also, some states are not reporting test results in a timely manner.

    So, we’ve been testing some people, mostly the already sick outside of New Mexico, we need to quadruple, an order of magnitude?, more to get to 1%. To build a good surveillance model to assess the national infection rate, we need a uniform 10% across population and geographies, to then define where to need to focus additional testing on and quarantine on, ramping to ubiquitous testing in the future.

    If we want to get to the level Iceland is at, 5%, we need 17X our current testing.

    Colonel Klink (Ret) (305827)

  142. Two folks have presented with CV19. The rest of the island is acting according to good sense

    PowerPoint? Acting or behaving?

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  143. Damn. You hang in there Kevin; one day at a time.

    Or as I suggested to someone a while back: “Breathe in, Breathe out.”

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  144. @126 I so sorry, that’s terrible.

    Nic (896fdf)

  145. I know the concept of what “Tiger King” is, I’d stab a man over animal cruelty, it’s cats not dogs, but still. The Tiger King man is asking Trump for a pardon? Did I hear that right?

    Yeah, it’s a joke, wait, is it a joke, I just don’t know anymore?

    Colonel Klink (Ret) (305827)

  146. If the Rs want it done, they are going to have to be pro-active about it and that’s not going to happen either.

    It’s late for impeachment, but there are scenarios where they won’t nominate Trump.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  147. Kevin M,

    > I’m sorry. I have two friends on respirators and one of them, whom I’ve known for 30 years, doesn’t look like she’s going to make it. And her mother passed last night.

    Oh, holy s**t, that’s awful. I’m sorry, Kevin. Please do what you need to take care of yourself in this terrible time.

    aphrael (7962af)

  148. @148 While it’s theoretically possible that the RNC could nominate someone else, it would severely anger somewhere between 2/3 and almost all registered Rs. Functionally, I don’t think that will happen either, unless Trump collapses while frothing at the mouth, on national TV.

    Nic (896fdf)

  149. TL:DR. It’s working, STFU.

    Best. Comment. Evah.

    California take sa lot of justified ****, but our state and local governments have really done an unbelievably good job on this. I feel extraordinarily lucky to be here and not in NYC.

    Granted I live behind the Orange Curtain, which probably isn’t typical of the state as a whole, but I’ve been impressed by what I’ve been able to see from my neighbors and local businesses.

    I went to the Emporium of Death supermarket yesterday here in OC. Definitely over half the people – customers and staff – had masks on. They have a person outside disinfecting shopping carts as people finish using them, from open to close. The automated PA system reminds the employees to wash their hands and/or sanitize their work areas (for cashiers) every half hour. They put up plexiglass on the checkout aisles to reduce danger to/from cashiers.

    Still not a single roll of TP for sale, though. My graduate student is under virtual house arrest in France, but is allowed to go to the store with a self-inscribed pass. I’ve been thinking of asking her to ship me some Charmin…

    Dave (1bb933)

  150. While it’s theoretically possible that the RNC could nominate someone else, it would severely anger somewhere between 2/3 and almost all registered Rs. Functionally, I don’t think that will happen either, unless Trump collapses while frothing at the mouth, on national TV.

    Have you watched the press conferences? Today’s was actually nearly sane, nearly. Monday’s was really bad, and Sunday he was hair on fire loony.

    Colonel Klink (Ret) (305827)

  151. @153 Sometimes. But I mean the collapse frothing at the mouth literally in Trump’s case. I pretty sure that any other action, even on national TV, could be disregarded or made excuses for, including if he tried to strangle Dr. Fauci with his bare hands.

    Nic (896fdf)

  152. Still not a single roll of TP for sale, though. My graduate student is under virtual house arrest in France, but is allowed to go to the store with a self-inscribed pass. I’ve been thinking of asking her to ship me some Charmin…

    Amazon had Charmin an hour ago…nope, it’s gone again.

    Colonel Klink (Ret) (305827)

  153. Anyone who hasn’t read it should check out https://marker.medium.com/what-everyones-getting-wrong-about-the-toilet-paper-shortage-c812e1358fe0, which gives a great explanation for *why* we are out of toilet paper.

    aphrael (7962af)

  154. They should replace Herr Doktor Professor von Drumpfenschnitzel’s Tic-Tacs with hydroxychloroquine pills.

    To keep him safe.

    Dave (1bb933)

  155. So we have one commenter cursing out another commenter and then a 3rd person endorsing cursing out the 2nd individual.

    When did this become acceptable?

    NJRob (a8e16f)

  156. Unsolicited, but keep on being level-headed and focused, Rob. The individuals you’ve cited are not role models in any positive sense.

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  157. The epidemic hits the Saudi royal family hard.

    As many as 150 royals inside the kingdom are believed to have contracted the coronavirus, including members of the family’s lesser branches, according to a person close to the family.

    Doctors at the elite hospital that treats the Saud clan are preparing as many as 500 beds for an expected influx of royals and those closest to them, according to an internal “high alert” sent out Tuesday night by hospital officials.

    “Directives are to be ready for VIPs from around the country,” the operators of the elite facility, the King Faisal Specialist Hospital, wrote in the alert, sent electronically to senior doctors. A copy was obtained by The New York Times.

    “We don’t know how many cases we will get but high alert,” the message stated, instructing that “all chronic patients to be moved out ASAP,” and sick staff members will be treated elsewhere, to make room for the royals.

    The senior Saudi who is the governor of Riyadh, Prince Faisal bin Bandar bin Abdulaziz Al Saud, is in intensive care with Covid-19, according to two doctors with ties to the King Faisal hospital and two others close to the royal family. Prince Faisal is a nephew of King Salman.

    King Salman, 84, has secluded himself in an island palace near the city of Jeddah on the Red Sea. His son, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the 34-year old de facto ruler, has retreated with many of his ministers to the remote site on the same coast……

    Too bad.

    RipMurdock (d2a2a8)

  158. Wuhancoronavirus has turned us all into dogs. We roam the house all day looking for food. We’re told “no” if we get too close to strangers. And we get really excited about car rides.

    Quit drinking out of the toilet, Haiku!

    Bad! Bad!

    Dave (1bb933)

  159. Chris Hayes
    @chrislhayes
    ·
    The most cynical interpretation of all this, one I can’t quite bring myself to accept, is they rolled out the model showing 100k deaths after they knew it would be less than that so they could anchor everyone to that # and take a vicotry lap when “only” tens of thousands died. https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1248016552575651842
    __ _

    David Rutz
    @DavidRutz
    ·
    Neat trick to espouse the conspiracy theory while not actually espousing it. Just asking questions!
    __ _

    Joe Concha
    @JoeConchaTV
    ·
    “They” is Dr. Fauci, Dr. Birx and the IHME model funded by the Gates Foundation.
    __ _

    Drew McCoy
    @_Drew_McCoy_
    ·
    I get so confused. Are Fauci and Birx Democratic stooges undermining Trump or Republican stooges propping up Trump.

    Or…internationally recognized experts dealing with an unprecedented crisis?
    __ _

    John Sexton
    @verumserum
    ·
    Keep your chin up, Chris, we may still have 100k deaths.

    _

    harkin (b64479)

  160. Prestigious scientific panel tells White House coronavirus won’t go away with warmer weather
    A prestigious scientific panel told the White House Tuesday that it doesn’t look like coronavirus will go away once the weather warms up. President Trump has claimed that “when it gets a little warmer [the virus] miraculously goes away.”

    In their letter to the White House, members of a National Academy of Sciences committee said data is mixed on whether coronavirus spreads as easily in warm weather as it does in cold weather, but that it might not matter much given that so few people in the world are immune to coronavirus.
    Will warmer weather help fight the coronavirus? Singapore and Australia suggest maybe not
    Will warmer weather help fight the coronavirus? Singapore and Australia suggest maybe not
    “There is some evidence to suggest that [coronavirus] may transmit less efficiently in environments with higher ambient temperature and humidity; however, given the lack of host immunity globally, this reduction in transmission efficiency may not lead to a significant reduction in disease spread without the concomitant adoption of major public health interventions,” according to the letter.

    The letter noted, for example, that a study of the outbreak in China showed that even under maximum temperature and humidity conditions, the virus spread “exponentially,” with every infected person spreading it to nearly two other people on average. ……

    RipMurdock (1d97e4)

  161. Kevin 126,

    That is tough. I am very sorry.

    DRJ (15874d)

  162. Unsolicited, but keep on being level-headed and focused, Rob. The individuals you’ve cited are not role models in any positive sense.

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0) — 4/8/2020 @ 4:49 pm

    Much obliged Colonel. I’ve tried to temper my retorts and focus on maximizing liberty in my discussions. I have no interest in begging for scraps from the political class when it comes to freedom.

    NJRob (27be9e)

  163. I have no interest in begging for scraps from the political class when it comes to freedom.

    Or learning a damned thing about the law OR history of your own country.

    That’s a rather good vignette you MIGHT learn some things from…

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1793_Philadelphia_yellow_fever_epidemic

    Ragspierre (d9bec9)

  164. Functionally, I don’t think that will happen either, unless Trump collapses while frothing at the mouth, on national TV.

    That would be one of the scenarios. Or maybe he orders the country opened up and arrests governors who won’t do it. He is capable of incredible stupidity. Or maybe he just falls down some stairs.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  165. A primary characteristic of the typical toddler is a constant “I want it! I want it! I want it!” of things they can’t have.

    “OPEN UP OUR GREAT COUNTRY…sooner rather than later”…I want it! I want it! I want it!

    Picture the Baby Trump balloon hopping up and down, teary eyes squeezed almost shut, tiny toddler hands balled into fists:

    Muslim travel ban…I want it! I want it! I want it!
    Magic COVID drug…I want it! I want it! I want it!
    Magic, free, border wall…I want it! I want it! I want it!
    Back to normal by Easter…I want it! I want it! I want it!
    Sports leagues starting soon…I want it! I want it! I want it!
    Governors’ obsequious flattery…I want it! I want it! I want it!
    Google’s building a testing website…I want it! I want it! I want it!
    Foreign investigation of political rival…I want it! I want it! I want it!
    COVID “like a miracle it will disappear”…I want it! I want it! I want it!
    “Anybody who needs a test can get a test”…I want it! I want it! I want it!

    …the list is endless.

    Purple Martin (34703c)

  166. https://twitter.com/DavidLat/status/1247364666424283138

    David Lat with a reasonable take on hydroxychloroquine.

    NJRob (4d595c)

  167. It seems like the worst outbreaks are in Italy, Spain, New York and New Jersey. Is it possible the East Coast version of the virus came from Europe and the West Coast version came from Asia?

    DRJ (15874d)

  168. It is believed based on genetic analysis that the variant of the virus that infected most people in New York came via Europe.

    Dave (1bb933)

  169. never seen such manipulation of medical care by non-medical entities. And we’re not even yet sure of the pathophysiology of the disease yet, much less treatment..
    wtf?

    mg (8cbc69)

  170. The fight to remain a citizen and not a subject has arrived.

    mg (8cbc69)

  171. As of Wednesday night, there are now 432,132 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the United States (an 8.4 percent increase from yesterday) and 14,808 deaths (a 14.9 percent increase from yesterday), according to the Johns Hopkins University COVID-19 Dashboard, leading to a mortality rate among confirmed cases of 3.4 percent (the true mortality rate is difficult to calculate due to incomplete testing regimens). Of 2,195,771 coronavirus tests conducted in the United States, 19.3 percent have come back positive, per the COVID Tracking Project, a separate dataset with slightly different topline numbers.

    Pretty grim.

    Ragspierre (d9bec9)

  172. MG, the American thinker pc is garbage.

    Strip out the inflammatory language and the facts they present are

    The previous and current practice is that
    -ME and Physicians are expected to determine cause of death to the best of their ability and put that on the death certificate.
    -Because of their training and education they’re given latitude to make an educated determination.
    -Not every death results in an autopsy.
    -Not every autopsy results in certainty about the cause of death.
    -The CDC has not made changes to this for Covid-19.

    Also, i’d like to point a bold faced lie.

    First, experts told us 2.2 million Americans would die. Then the number fell off a cliff, plunging down to around 200,000.

    The word ‘would’ hasn’t been in any model summary I’ve seen. I’ve seen people say “could die if…” and then explain what the assumptions are. But stating that experts made a definitive statement about the outcome is a lie.

    Time123 (457a1d)

  173. The American Stinker has really gone in the toilet over the T-rump years. Another casualty of the toxin that is the Orange Raccoon, along with the cartoon that the Dim Jim Hoft’s blog has become. Such a shame, and so much damage…

    Ragspierre (d9bec9)


  174. Hundreds of young Americans have now been killed by the coronavirus, data shows
    ER doctor: ‘Just because they are young doesn’t mean they aren’t vulnerable’

    Two weeks after her husband died alone in an intensive care unit in Fort Myers, Fla., Nicole Buchanan is quarantined at the home they shared with their 12-year-old daughter, wrestling not only with grief but also with why and how the coronavirus could steal someone so young and healthy.

    “My husband didn’t have diabetes, he didn’t have asthma, he didn’t have high cholesterol. He didn’t have anything,” Buchanan said. “There’s just so much I’ll never know, that I’ll never get the answers to.”

    Conrad Buchanan, who died at 39 on March 26 after battling the infection for nearly two weeks, was creative and goofy. A professional DJ, he could entertain huge crowds with his music. But at home, he was fond of singing Bob Marley’s “Three Little Birds” to his daughter, Skye.

    “He had an amazing sense of humor. He had a big laugh. He was so magnetic,” his 37-year-old widow said. “He was our universe.”

    He also was among at least 759 people under age 50 across the United States who have perished amid the deepening pandemic, according to a Washington Post analysis of state data. These deaths underscore the tragic fact that while the novel coronavirus might be most threatening to the old and compromised, no one is immune.

    For the very young — people under the age of 20 — death is extremely rare in the current pandemic. But it happens: The Post identified nine such cases.

    The risk appears to rise with every decade of age. The Post found at least 45 deaths among people in their 20s, at least 190 deaths among people in their 30s, and at least 413 deaths among people in their 40s.

    So the myth that this is just a boomer broomer is just that…a myth.

    Ragspierre (d9bec9)

  175. @180,
    It’s not a myth based on the data. Age is a risk factor that increases the fatality rate. But it’s not zero for adults.

    It appears to be near zero for children, thank god.

    If the mortality rate for children and infants was as high as it is for the elderly there would be squads of armed people walking the street 6 ft apart to enforce quarantine.

    Time123 (457a1d)

  176. 121. RipMurdock (d2a2a8) — 4/8/2020 @ 2:57 pm

    2. Make millions of diagnostic tests available.

    That’s easy to say/ Not tso east to do The New Eglad Jouurnal of Medicine editorial might as well have said

    1.Eradicate Covid-19 in the United States. And STOPPED.

    And China didn;t really do that in Wuhan.

    We have begun to unleash American ingenuity in creating new treatments and a vaccine, providing a greater variety and number of diagnostic tests, and using the power of information technology, social media, artificial intelligence, and high-speed computing to devise novel solutions.

    All you need to do is not demand, or even ask for, formal clinical studies.

    6. Learn while doing through real-time, fundamental research. Clinical care would be vastly improved by effective antiviral treatment,

    Maybe Kaletra works after all. After all, according to John Ioannides, most published research studies are falsw.

    and every plausible avenue should be investigated. We did it with HIV;

    And i took

    maybe ten years more than they needed to.
    now, we need to do it faster with SARS-CoV-2.

    Which means we need to change the procedures.

    The next epidemic that comes along might be worse.

    Sammy Finkelman (7cd5f4)

  177. `170. DRJ (15874d) — 4/8/2020 @ 11:37 pm

    It seems like the worst outbreaks are in Italy, Spain, New York and New Jersey. Is it possible the East Coast version of the virus came from Europe and the West Coast version came from Asia?

    Yes. Except that the Italian version probably came from China. Also it could have arrived in the New York city metropolitan are more than once./

    They say there are two (now eight) very slightly different versions of the virus out there. It doesn’t mutate like the flu. I think a difference might not just be the coronavirus but perhaps in some cases it is accompanied by a bacterial infection.

    Oh, and did you know tat the coronavirus causes heart attacks (probably on;y iif infection is serious ad also untreated)

    Sammy Finkelman (7cd5f4)


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