Patterico's Pontifications

4/8/2020

Wednesday Evening Music for Holy Week

Filed under: General — Patterico @ 6:45 pm



It’s a song by the great Hugo Wolf, setting a poem by Eduard Mörike. The singer? Dietrich Fischer-Dieskau, only the greatest male interpreter of German lieder known to modern history. His accompanist? The great Gerald Moore.

The subject? Christ as a child, playing innocently on his mother’s lap, as the tree bearing the wood that will form the cross is seen nearby. What a haunting image for Holy Week, and what a beautiful, short song.

Auf ein altes Bild

In grüner Landschaft Sommerflor,
Bei kühlem Wasser, Schilf und Rohr,
Schau, wie das Knäblein sündelos
Frei spielet auf der Jungfrau Schoss!
Und dort im Walde wonnesam,
Ach, grünet schon des Kreuzes Stamm!

On an old painting

In the summer haze of a green landscape,
By cool water, rushes and reeds,
See how the Child, born without sin,
Plays freely on the Virgin’s lap!
And ah! growing blissfully there in the wood,
Already the tree of the cross is turning green!

Screen Shot 2020-04-08 at 6.43.34 PM

The Coming Budget Reckoning for the Golden State (and Others)

Filed under: General — JVW @ 3:59 pm



[guest post by JVW]

Sorry I have been quiet for the past weeks. Everything is fine, but as I explained to Dana I just haven’t been super motivated to post recently. In terms of the COVID-19 updates I think that our host and Dana are doing a bang-up job staying on top of the news and I don’t have much to add to the discussion.

But I do have an interest in what the economic fallout of the pandemic will be, especially how it impacts the fifty-seven states who don’t have the luxury of manipulating interest rates, printing currency, or running huge deficits. We here in California have been taking victory laps in the past few years of economic growth, convincing ourselves that our model of a massive regulation, high taxes, and a huge bureaucratic apparatus is scalable across the entire country, not just those states blessed with a giant coastline, rich agricultural land, fantastic weather, elite research universities, and a huge chunk of the entertainment industry. But as usual much of the expansion of government in the Golden State has been predicated upon the idea that economic good times would never end, which has allowed us to conveniently ignore our failures and assume that expansion would continue to march on.

Now, of course, we know better. The mixture of a massive market drop coupled with heavy job losses is going to force California to revisit some assumptions that the ruling party has made about the purpose of government in the modern economy. Here are a few things with which our elected leaders must contend:

The Budget
During the economic boom the California budget rose from $152 billion for the 2014-15 fiscal year to $209 billion in 2019-20, and this year. The trend started under Jerry Brown, who prioritized cementing a progressive legacy in his fourth and final term as governor rather than holding the line on fiscal discipline and building up a larger budget reserve for just this sort of crisis. As it stands, the state’s budget director is already warning state agencies that they “should have no expectation of full funding for either new or existing proposals” as tax revenue plummet. During the fat times the state built up a $20 billion reserve, but that sum is unlikely to plug the holes in this year’s budget, let alone help us through a potentially long-lasting economic slowdown.

AB 5 – The Gig Workers Act
We have touched upon the negative effects that this legislation has had on a variety of workers in the Golden State, not just the Uber and Lyft workers this bill targeted, but freelancers of all stripes. With unemployment claims lately reaching two million, legislative Democrats are going to be forced to determine if blind fealty to union interests is more important than allowing Californians the opportunity to pick up regular work without forcing a company to treat them as full-time employees. Now would be the ideal time to loosen regulations that stifle hiring, but it would appear that not only is the state legislature digging in, but Congressional Democrats are interested in taking this bad California law nationwide.

Health Care
Here’s another area where Governor Newsom and legislative Democrats had hoped to establish themselves as the progressive vanguard to differentiate themselves from the Trump Administration’s approach. The new governor who campaigned on the idea of making single-payer health care available statewide has since scaled back his plans somewhat, though the state has reinstated the financial penalty for residents who don’t have health insurance while at the same time expanding eligibility to immigrants living here illegally. Will the state actually fine residents who can’t afford to purchase health insurance in the economic downturn, or will the state strain the budget by subsidizing premiums for those residents who find themselves out of work? When government insists upon playing an outsized role in health care delivery it can find itself painted into a corner in times of crisis.

Taxes
The major initiative on the ballot this fall has long been assumed to be the split-roll property tax change which would require commercial and industrial properties to be reassessed at current values. Advocates tout an alleged $12 billion in new revenue which they naturally claim will go toward schools and the environment and whatever other causes set progressive hearts aflutter, though the reality is that all of that money — and then some — would ultimately be used to plug state pensions which are going to spiral further out of whack in a prolonged recession. Golden State voters have as of late shown an admirable skepticism regarding the state’s alleged lack of adequate revenue, but in times of economic hardship they might fall for the mindless rhetoric of forcing “greedy” businesses to pay more, not understanding that these increased taxes will ultimately be passed along to the consumer. Within the context of what promises to be a bitterly fought Presidential election, it will be interesting to see how this all shakes out.

Speaking of pensions, I’ll try to explore this issue further in a follow-up post, but as you can well imagine the day we have long expected would eventually come is now that much closer.

– JVW

BREAKING: Bernie Out

Filed under: General — Patterico @ 8:23 am



Just coming over the wires Twitters. More details as I get them.

UPDATE:

What Is the Plan?

Filed under: General — Patterico @ 8:18 am



Donald J. Trump on Twitter:

In response, let me repeat a very nasty question — the type of question only someone at CNN would ask, very nasty — asked by Jake Tapper (see, I told you! CNN! next question!) the other day:

What is the plan, other than advising people to forget about it?

Any plan for gradual lifting of social distancing requires a massive testing effort to identify (hopefully) immune people with antibodies, as well as a Manhattan Project to develop therapies and eventually a vaccine.

I don’t get the sense all of that is happening, at least to the degree it must if there is a hope to “OPEN UP OUR GREAT COUNTRY” “sooner rather than later.” I get the sense that the efforts at the top of the executive branch are geared towards wishful thinking, and shouting down anyone not willing to engage in it.

I hope I’m wrong.

P.S I had thought about writing a post about the latest garbage article being passed around by the Fluthers (h/t: Caleb Howe) but I put everything I had to say in one nice compact tweet with screenshots. Just click on all the screenshots and this thing refutes itself.

Btw, I like Gene Epstein a lot. It bothers me that he’s falling for such obvious tripe.


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