Patterico's Pontifications

4/4/2020

Weekend Open Thread

Filed under: General — Dana @ 9:25 am



[guest post by Dana]

Feel free to talk about anything you think is newsworthy or might interest readers.

I’ll start.

First news item

Sweden’s liberal approach to minimize disruption to social and economic life not working out so well:

A spike in novel coronavirus infections and deaths in Stockholm has raised questions about Sweden’s decision to fight the outbreak without resorting to the lockdowns that have left much of Europe at a standstill.

Governments across Europe have closed schools and taken draconian measures to limit exposure to possible carriers with Germany for example enforcing bans on more than two people meeting in public.

Among Sweden’s Nordic neighbours, Denmark has closed its borders and shut its schools, as has Norway, while Finland has isolated its main urban region.

Yet Swedes are able to go to restaurants, get a haircut and send their children to school even as the number of confirmed cases and deaths have mounted, above all in Stockholm which accounts for more than half the fatalities.

“Locking people up at home won’t work in the longer term,” Health Agency Chief Epidemiologist Anders Tegnell. “Sooner or later people are going to go out anyway.”

Second news item

More, please:

A Brooklyn landlord announced that he will waive rent fees for all of his residents because of the coronavirus pandemic.

On March 30, Mario Salerno posted a notice on the front doors of all his buildings with the announcement that rent would be waived for the month of April 2020.

“Due to the recent pandemic of Coronavirus COVID-19 affecting all of us, please note I am waiving rent for the month for April,” the notice stated.

Salerno, 59, owns roughly 80 apartments with 200 tenants spread out across Williamsburg and Greenpoint. He said he made the decision after hearing from multiple tenants who were having trouble making ends meet because of the virus.

“For me, it was more important for people’s health and worrying about who could put food on whose table,” Salerno said. “ I say don’t worry about paying me, worry about your neighbor and worry about your family.”

Third news item

What they knew, what they worried about:

Two top administration officials last year listed the threat of a pandemic as an issue that greatly worried them, undercutting President Donald Trump’s repeated claims that the coronavirus pandemic was an unforeseen problem.

Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar and Tim Morrison, then a special assistant to the President and senior director for weapons of mass destruction and biodefense on the National Security Council, made the comments at the BioDefense Summit in April 2019.

“Of course, the thing that people ask: ‘What keeps you most up at night in the biodefense world?’ Pandemic flu, of course. I think everyone in this room probably shares that concern,” Azar said, before listing off efforts to mitigate the impact of flu outbreaks

“I’ve heard about this for a long time, pandemics. You don’t want pandemics,” Trump said in response to a question from CNN’s Jim Acosta about the KFile reporting. “I don’t think he was talking about a specific pandemic, he was talking about the threat of a pandemic could happen. And it could happen. Most people thought it wouldn’t, and most people didn’t understand the severity of it.”

Azar added that the government has been working for years to prepare for a pandemic.

“We knew about SARS, we knew about MERS, which were earlier modifications of the coronavirus, none of those achieved anything like what we are seeing today,” Azar told Acosta at the briefing, “but that is why four successive presidencies, including the leadership of President Trump, there has been a great focus on pandemic preparedness.”

At the 2019 summit, Azar also said, “It’s a cardinal rule of leadership that you have to have accountability, which means picking a leader, and that’s a leadership lesson well understood by President Trump, who has a particular interest not just in our national security, but in preparedness for biodefense in particular.”

Fourth news item

Trump on mail-in voter fraud concerns, in November, in spite of having requested a vote-by-mail ballot himself:

“Do you think every state in the country should be prepared for mail-in voting?” ABC’s Jonathan Karl asked Trump during a Friday press conference.

“No, because I think a lot of people cheat with mail-in voting,” the president responded. “And it shouldn’t be mail-in voting. It should be, you go to a booth, and you probably display yourself. You don’t send it in the mail where people pick up all sorts of bad things can happen by the time they sign that, if they sign that, if they sign that, by the time it gets and is tabulated. No. It should not be mailed-in. You should vote at the booth, and you should have voter ID.”

Fifth news item

CDC now says cover your face:

CDC recommends wearing cloth face coverings in public settings where other social distancing measures are difficult to maintain (e.g., grocery stores and pharmacies), especially in areas of significant community-based transmission.

CDC also advises the use of simple cloth face coverings to slow the spread of the virus and help people who may have the virus and do not know it from transmitting it to others.

President Trump said he won’t be wearing one. If you haven’t already been wearing one, will you now?

Sixth news item

Texas town to fine people for not wearing a mask:

Of you are caught in the city of Laredo, Texas, without a mask covering your mouth and nose, you could be hit with a hefty fine. The City Council issued an order that requires anybody who enters a public building, office, or home other than their own to wear a mask or some form of fabric over their face. Failure to wear a mask could get you fined up to $1,000.

According to the Laredo Morning Times, council members said they had to act in part because their neighboring county is not taking the global coronavirus pandemic seriously.

The order also created a curfew for all residents. Anybody who is out during the hours of 10 p.m. and 5 a.m. can be arrested and face fines between $50 and $1,000. People who are deemed essential workers are exempt from the curfew.

The order lasts until April 30.

Seventh news item

Looks promising:

A potential coronavirus vaccine that is administered using a fingertip-sized patch with dissolvable microneedles produces antibodies that could fight the virus, a study in mice showed.

“The microneedle array is simply applied to the skin topically, pressed into place very shortly, and then taken off and thrown away,” said Dr. Louis Falo, professor and chair of dermatology at University of Pittsburgh’s School of Medicine.

When tested in mice, the vaccine produced antibodies against the virus within two weeks of the microneedle prick and it uses less vaccine than a normal shot.

Have a good weekend. Stay safe, please.

–Dana

256 Responses to “Weekend Open Thread”

  1. Good morning. Gray and dreary here, which makes it easier for me to be content staying inside.

    Dana (4fb37f)

  2. A Brooklyn landlord announced that he will waive rent fees for all of his residents because of the coronavirus pandemic.

    There is only one word for that: Human. Ok, maybe two: Very human.

    nk (1d9030)

  3. God bless him. What a gift to be able to provide relief to so many people.

    Dana (4fb37f)

  4. 2. 3. You guys wanna bet he will also “waive” normal and routine maintenance?

    Gryph (08c844)

  5. I don’t know, Gryph. First, he doesn’t sound like that type of guy. Second, all eyes are on him.

    Dana (4fb37f)

  6. It should be, you go to a booth, and you probably display yourself.

    Well, as important as voting is to me, I ain’t displaying myself to no-damn-body, regardless of what Pres. Word Salad says.

    Ragspierre (d9bec9)

  7. No, he’s not gonna waive normal and routine maintenance. It’s his property and he is going to take care of it and not let it go to seed. He might yell at them again to wash their hands if he sees fingermarks on the walls. 😉

    nk (1d9030)

  8. 7. And on what basis do you say that? Maintenance, even normal and routine maintenance, costs money. He’ll do what he can, I’m sure. But he can’t go out and buy tools or fixtures that he doesn’t have money to pay for.

    Gryph (08c844)

  9. 5. Of course he’s not that kind of guy. I’m not talking about malice, here. I’m talking about, tools and fixtures cost money. If he’s not getting his rent, he’ll still have to pay his taxes. Unless you’re talking about shutting down tax collections, too.

    Gryph (08c844)

  10. My parents were landlords and my brothers and I took over when they got old. That basis.

    nk (1d9030)

  11. 10. I’d daresay your parents and brothers never had to deal with anything quite like this.

    Gryph (08c844)

  12. AND…assuming that he can afford to do this for a month or two, what happens when this thing drags on into the Summer or even the Fall? How many months do you think he can afford to cut his tenants a break before his “generosity” starts to hurt him in a very real and tangible way? There’s no way to know how much longer this thing goes on.

    Gryph (08c844)

  13. Inspired by a stranger’s kindness, nk drops his cynicism and misanthropy for the first time in … forever?

    But Gryph says: “Cynicism and misanthropy? Hold my beer!”

    :)

    Dave (1bb933)

  14. I haven’t been following the traffic round the clock and might have missed a post, but JVW seems to have gone very quiet.

    Hope he’s OK.

    Dave (1bb933)

  15. 13. You confuse cynicism with simple economics. Kindness comes with a price. Always. If not paid by the recipient of the kindness, it is paid by the kind.

    How long do you think this landlord will be able to waive rent before he starts realizing that he can’t go on indefinitely letting people stay in his units for free?

    Gryph (08c844)

  16. I’ve been wearing an N95 mask (the few times I venture forth) for the past 3 weeks. Also nitrile gloves. I bought the gloves last year for a project and the (5) masks in February when it became clear that this bug was going to spread. I also have some earloop masks I got last year, which my wife prefers.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  17. I guess the landlord has more heart than that upper-west-side co-op board.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  18. 17. Yeah, he has heart. And it is nice of him. But he’ll run out of money before his jobless tenants get their employment back.

    Gryph (08c844)

  19. All voting should be in-person on election day. MAYBE including the prior weekend to avoid work conflicts. I’d say that elderly shut-ins should be able to vote by mail, but my experience is that their children do the voting anyway.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  20. How long do you think this landlord will be able to waive rent before he starts realizing that he can’t go on indefinitely letting people stay in his units for free?

    “Due to the recent pandemic of Coronavirus COVID-19 affecting all of us, please note I am waiving rent for the month for April,” the notice stated.

    Weird, it’s almost like the guy thought of that, or something.

    Dave (1bb933)

  21. But he’ll run out of money before his jobless tenants get their employment back.

    Anyone making less than about $25/hour will make more money on UI, given the CARES Act, than they were the day they were let go.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  22. How long do you think this landlord will be able to waive rent before he starts realizing that he can’t go on indefinitely letting people stay in his units for free?

    Oh, I bet he knows that right now! He’s very likely a good bit sharper WRT basic econ than your typical sandwich slinger in Rooster Poot, SD.

    Ragspierre (d9bec9)

  23. Not saying that is right, just that it is so.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  24. 22. GFY Raggy.

    21. SMDH…the number of people that are okay with that because “health emergency…” I just can’t even…

    20. Great. Then when these people are still functionally under house arrest in May, they’ll be back to the same problem they were before. Gee, it’s almost like I have a reason to be so cynical!

    Gryph (08c844)

  25. I sure am glad to see that Sweden is second-guessing their decision to not go into full lock-down mode with their economy, looking at the numbers being reported they’re only doing slightly better than countries that did shut down all the things. Wait, that can’t be right can it? The Swedish government chose to be as minimally invasive as possible and their numbers are actually better than other countries that went maximally invasive? I’m sure there’s some good explanation for why things are exactly the opposite of what they appear to be.

    Jerryskids (702a61)

  26. How long do you think this landlord will be able to waive rent before he starts realizing that he can’t go on indefinitely letting people stay in his units for free?
    Gryph (08c844) — 4/4/2020 @ 10:22 am

    That was the way you should have worded your question, the first time.Instead of:

    2. 3. You guys wanna bet he will also “waive” normal and routine maintenance?
    Gryph (08c844) — 4/4/2020 @ 9:38 am

    The guy at 10:22 am comes off as thoughtful, the guy at 9:36 am not so much.

    felipe (023cc9)

  27. Watching Cisco Pike on the tube… where did those 49 years go?

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  28. 25. Well, from the numbers in Sweden, Singapore, and The Diamond Princess, I think we can conclusively say now that social distancing is not the cure for what ails us. We can also say, given my experience here in this forum and elsewhere, that most Americans will continue to beg for government to come save them from themselves.

    Gryph (08c844)

  29. I have a couple of contractor-type hard masks, and a bunch of dental technician blue masks, and “Grease Monkey” nitrile gloves, that I kept for chores and such. I wore both a mask and gloves for the first time to the Jewel last Sunday. I’ll wear the gloves for sure at the ATM tomorrow.

    I don’t blame the Drumpfelschnitzel for being wobbly on the question. When this started, the official advice was: “Leave masks to the professionals. You won’t know how to wear them, you’ll be touching them and adjusting them all the time, and that will put more germs on your face.”

    In either case, I am not walking the streets of Laredo any time soon.

    nk (1d9030)

  30. Doug Sahm’s character had to be the inspiration for Boomhauer (King of the Hill).

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  31. 26. Good thing I don’t give a flying fig how I appear to other people.

    Gryph (08c844)

  32. I am surprised (and maybe disappointed) that that no one here caught Trump saying this during the Friday presser:

    “…I was not involved with any of those models, as you know – well at least not those kind of models.”

    felipe (023cc9)

  33. Well, from the numbers in Sweden, Singapore, and The Diamond Princess, I think we can conclusively say now that social distancing is not the cure for what ails us. We can also say, given my experience here in this forum and elsewhere, that most Americans will continue to beg for government to come save them from themselves.

    You’re ready comprehension is quite bad. A spike in novel coronavirus infections and deaths in Stockholm has raised questions about Sweden’s decision to fight the outbreak without resorting to the lockdowns that have left much of Europe at a standstill.

    If you actually read the article, you’d have learned that Sweden adopted the model you’ve been pushing for weeks. The results, higher transmission rates, higher death totals. So there’s a country that tried your experiment, has proven that is was really st…non-optimal.

    But go ahead, claim you never said that, this doesn’t say Sweden did that, or if they did, it’s all happy-happy-joy-joy.

    Colonel Klink (Ret) (305827)

  34. How do we feel about being fined for not wearing a mask into a public building, or a curfew, as in Laredo, TX?

    Dana (4fb37f)

  35. We can also say, given my experience here in this forum and elsewhere, that most Americans will continue to beg for government to come save them from themselves.

    I think that there’s a champion of self-righteousness who can’t help but declare himself better than others.

    Ragspierre (d9bec9)

  36. I am surprised (and maybe disappointed) that that no one here caught Trump saying this during the Friday presser:

    “…I was not involved with any of those models, as you know – well at least not those kind of models.”

    felipe (023cc9) — 4/4/2020 @ 10:55 am

    I saw that, felipe, and thought about posting it, but really, Trump making smarmy jokes during a pandemic didn’t even make me blink, and how said is that.

    Dana (4fb37f)

  37. 26. Good thing I don’t give a flying fig how I appear to other people.
    Gryph (08c844) — 4/4/2020 @ 10:52 am

    It is one thing to be disrespected by others, but to be disrespected by yourself? And you think it a good thing?

    felipe (023cc9)

  38. …Although others might certainly like to discuss the lack of decorum by our president…so please, feel free.

    Dana (4fb37f)

  39. Item One, we do mail-in voting in WA State. No polling places. It’s worked without a hitch.
    Item Two, I went to Winco yesterday and there were more people with facial coverings, but a majority were maskless (and there was a line to get in). I may have to break down and get one or three.
    Item Three, what better time to fire an IG for disloyalty than at the end of a record-setting day when 1,328 Americans perished from a virus, and it’s not looking better today.
    Item Four, Cathy Young is formidable.
    Item Five, Trump is getting no bounce in his job approval, despite his daily press appearances, or maybe because of daily press appearances. Even Rasmussen has him at 44% approval among 1,500 likely voters; the dates are significant, from March 31 (4,053 dead Americans) to April 2 (6,076 dead Americans).
    Item Six, who was right about the virus when it counted, Biden or Trump? On January 27th, Biden took it seriously. On January 30th, Trump said, “We think we have it very well under control. We have very little problem in this country at this moment — five. … we think it’s going to have a very good ending for it.”
    On the same day, Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross was the idiot who said, “So, I think it will help accelerate the return of jobs to North America, some to the U.S., probably some to Mexico as well.”
    FTR, I won’t be voting for Biden.

    Paul Montagu (f57f23)

  40. 33. I said what I said. And Sweden, with their less invasive protocols, is doing better than countries like Singapore, which are being more invasive. Their “failure to flatten the curve,” such as it is, means that they’ll be over the hump sooner.

    And in the meantime, no one in America seems to know when the unemployed will be able to go back to work or just what constitutes an “essential” industry. I think it is this uncertainty that bothers me the most, and nothing you can say can make me feel better about that.

    Gryph (08c844)

  41. 35. Look in the mirror much lately, Raggy?

    Gryph (08c844)

  42. Dana (4fb37f) — 4/4/2020 @ 10:57 am

    Very sad, Dana. We are becoming either desensitized or fatigued.

    felipe (023cc9)

  43. Looking back on my science instruction, the interstices between the fabric of a handkerchief would appear to a virus particle like the walls of the Grand Canyon appear to us.

    I don’t see much value in wearing one.

    Ragspierre (d9bec9)

  44. “Flying fig” is an improvement on the disgusting expression he usually uses.

    I’m afraid it’s the most we can hope for.

    Dave (1bb933)

  45. I was incredulous just recently that people were actually arguing about wearing a mask or the confusing messages from people who should know better saying they wouldn’t help prevent catching the virus.

    Hope most everyone is finally on board (except the Pres. apparently).

    I bet Boris wishes he’d worn one.
    _

    harkin (b64479)

  46. 37. Despite Raggy’s and Klink’s protests to the contrary, I accept that no one here really knows me on the basis of typed words.

    And as for accusations of self-righteousness, I am championing freedom while most posters here are not, including our host. That fact is self-evident on its own. Whether that makes me a righteous individual or not is up to whatever god will judge me.

    Gryph (08c844)

  47. 44. Aw Dave, one of these days after this thing has finally blown over, I’ll buy you a plane ticket to my home town and we can knock back a few brewskis at this charming little microbrewery that I used to enjoy hanging out at (assuming it’s ever reopened). Then you can get to know the real me, absent all the bluster that comes with filtering words through the aether. 😉

    Gryph (08c844)

  48. The box of masks I ordered two weeks ago finally arrived.

    I have been using an N95 mask when I go to the store, but it’s pretty uncomfortable.

    Dave (1bb933)

  49. Sanctimonious, too.

    Who’d want to know you, based on your typed words?

    Ragspierre (d9bec9)

  50. Singapore is now in lockdown. The Diamond Princess congregated food service crew members — the most infected on board — were never isolated, unlike the passengers.

    But Sweden has focused on identifying and treating the sick, not lockdowns (yet). It is like a control group that will help us see if trusting people to be careful is enough during a pandemic. My guess is the problem isn’t that we can’t trust people, it is that highly urban populations are too vulnerable.

    DRJ (15874d)

  51. 49. I could ask you the same question, Raggy. Who’d want to know you based on yours? Not me. Since there’s no danger of us ever meeting in person, I’d say the question is moot.

    Gryph (08c844)

  52. 50. So we can’t trust people, but we can trust the government? :-O I never thought I’d live to see the day…

    Gryph (08c844)

  53. Well, from the numbers in Sweden, Singapore, and The Diamond Princess, I think we can conclusively say now that social distancing is not the cure for what ails us.

    I haven’t seen anything to make me think social distancing is a bad idea. And preventative medicine is not a ‘cure’.
    _

    We can also say, given my experience here in this forum and elsewhere, that most Americans will continue to beg for government to come save them from themselves.”

    I agree here.

    The larger the ratio of ‘govt. take care of me!!’ types in the population, the worse off we are.

    That being said, extraordinary circumstances require extraordinary cooperation.
    _

    harkin (b64479)

  54. How do we feel about being fined for not wearing a mask into a public building, or a curfew, as in Laredo, TX?

    Well, the Laredo curfew is the lockdown that exists in a lot of other places except that it’s only 10:00 pm to 5:00 am and not around the clock.

    The fine for masks is jackleg politicians being jerks. If I were in Laredo, my mask would have VOTE THEM OUT magic markered on the front in as big letters as would fit.

    nk (1d9030)

  55. 53. Social distancing is not a bad idea as far as it goes. Enforced house arrest under pain of fine or imprisonment? That is a bridge too far for me, thanks much.

    Extraordinary circumstances require extraordinary cooperation, yes. But extraordinary cooperation does not require government intervention.

    Gryph (08c844)

  56. “Stages of masking grief

    Denial: Don’t wear masks, they don’t work

    Anger: you’re wasting masks and your selfishness will kill doctors

    Depression: All the masks are gone

    Bargaining: What if people use bandanas?

    Acceptance: Everyone wear masks all the time”

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  57. So we can’t trust people, but we can trust the government?

    We DO trust people. Some can be trusted to do the stupidest thing possible, like defy what experts in an esoteric field say in order to continue their totally selfish attachment to a job. A job, BTW, that could readily be replaced.

    Ragspierre (d9bec9)

  58. Ragspierre (d9bec9) — 4/4/2020 @ 11:01 am

    Your point is well taken. Fortunately, the virus does not travel au natural, but rather within a “giant” droplet of water, rendering it easily caught by such porous materials. More by some, less by others.

    felipe (023cc9)

  59. We trust federal, state and local government to protect us from foreign incursions and to provide emergency, police, fire and medical services. We give government power during times of war and in emergencies like hurricanes, tornadoes, etc., because only government has the authority to provide for the common good.

    There was a time when only government had the ability to act, chiefly through the military, but we now have privately-owned distribution systems that can help. Unfortunatrly, hospitals and health care are not at that same level of ability.

    DRJ (15874d)

  60. 57. My job can be readily replaced assuming that there are jobs to go back to. Your willful failure to acknowledge the number of businesses that will have to close permanently is noted. Douchebag.

    Gryph (08c844)

  61. 60. Perhaps we should re-examine how we define what constitutes an “emergency.”

    Gryph (08c844)

  62. Yeah, felipe, I’m aware. Still a scarf or handkerchief quickly becomes moist, and we leave little trails of aerosols behind us.

    Masks are a different breed of cat, and for that very reason. I think…

    Ragspierre (d9bec9)

  63. I think Rush Limbaugh said it best:

    It’s not lives vs. money, it’s lives vs. lives

    Gryph (08c844)

  64. Colonel Haiku (2601c0) — 4/4/2020 @ 11:13 am

    That’s funny, thanks.

    felipe (023cc9)

  65. Vox – March 2:

    You do not need to wear a mask to avoid Coronavirus

    Vox – March 30:

    The evidence for everyone wearing masks, explained
    _

    harkin (b64479)

  66. If the government had done a better job educating people about the virus, explaining exactly what needed to be done, and why it would help … I think it would have been easier to trust people.

    We aren’t stupid but we never had good, consistent information. Every day there were new guidelines and new promises, often contradictory, and that was just from the federal government. States added their own layers of (mis)information.

    In fairness, this is a novel event and no one knew/knows what to expect or do. But Trump’s initial leadership was typical bluster plus making it up as he went along. That was not the formula to get people to take this seriously.

    DRJ (15874d)

  67. Your willful failure to acknowledge the number of businesses that will have to close permanently is noted. Douchebag.

    Your lie and personal assault are noted.

    I’ve never “failed” as you lie about. This crisis is going to hurt plenty. Having been an entrepreneur myself and made a study of entrepreneurs for decades, I know how precarious many businesses are.

    But the larger point was your continual moaning about YOUR job over weeks of tedium. I see jobs posted every day. But your selfishness has led you to wrap yourself in a “freedom” bloody shirt that’s gotten increasingly rank.

    Ragspierre (d9bec9)

  68. Ragspierre (d9bec9) — 4/4/2020 @ 11:20 am
    I may be mistaken, but I believe the virus is not transferred by aerosol. I take it with a grain of salt.

    The weight of the evidence suggests that the new coronavirus can exist as an aerosol — a physics term meaning a liquid or solid (the virus) suspended in a gas (like air) — only under very limited conditions, and that this transmission route is not driving the pandemic. But “limited” conditions does not mean “no” conditions, underlining the need for health care workers to have high levels of personal protection, especially when doing procedures such as intubation that have the greatest chance of creating coronavirus aerosols. “I think the answer will be, aerosolization occurs rarely but not never,” said microbiologist and physician Stanley Perlman of the University of Iowa. “You have to distinguish between what’s possible and what’s actually happening.”

    And:

    In droplet form, the coronavirus is airborne for a few seconds after someone sneezes or coughs. It’s able to travel only a short distance before gravitational forces pull it down. Someone close enough for the virus particles to reach in that brief period can therefore be infected. So can anyone who comes into contact with virus-containing droplets that fall onto a surface. The new coronavirus can survive on surfaces for several hours; hence the importance of hand-washing after touching a surface in a public place.

    An aerosol is a wholly different physical state: Particles are held in the air by physical and chemical forces. Fog is an aerosol; water droplets are suspended in air. The suspended particles remain for hours or more, depending on factors such as heat and humidity. If virus particles, probably on droplets of mucus or saliva, can be suspended in air for more than a few seconds, as the measles virus can, then anyone passing through that pathogenic cloud could become infected.

    There are strong reasons to doubt that the new coronavirus has anything close to that capability.

    “If it could easily exist as an aerosol, we would be seeing much greater levels of transmission,” said epidemiologist Michael LeVasseur of Drexel University. “And we would be seeing a different pattern in who’s getting infected. With droplet spread, it’s mostly to close contacts. But if a virus easily exists as an aerosol, you could get it from people you share an elevator with.”

    According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, that is not happening.

    felipe (023cc9)

  69. While I believe the decision by the CDC to encourage Americans to wear masks was data based, I also belive politics played a part in the reluctance to make such an announcement. Changing tactics implies that the virus is indeed bigger than we thought, and is a further public admission that we don’t have it under control. I think this is why Trump is resisting wearing a mask. For him to do so could be seen as admitting some level of defeat or weakness (against an enemy), and that would go completely against what he sees himself as (a tough, defiant winner) and also goes against how he wants others to see him. Moreover, his base loves him for defying the status quo, and pushing back on norms, so succumbing to a mask could also have political ramifications for him as well.

    Dana (4fb37f)

  70. Perhaps we should re-examine how we define what constitutes an “emergency.”

    Gryph (08c844) — 4/4/2020 @ 11:20 am

    We should consider that. That is what a self-governing populace and its leaders should do.

    DRJ (15874d)

  71. Note: I find my heart softened by the results of the “non-Trump thread” and so I have suspended my use of the filter. So far I am on the fence about it. Not that this information would be of any interest to those who do not already use the filter.

    felipe (023cc9)

  72. Further, I think that Trump (seemingly contradictorily) ignorantly and willfully misinformed the public: Ignorantly, because he didn’t he did not listen to experts who advised him of the dangers right here, right now. Willfully, because he chose not to listen to the experts, believing himself and by extension, the nation he leads, impervious to the virus. In other words, sublime arrogance at work.

    Dana (4fb37f)

  73. Dana (4fb37f) — 4/4/2020 @ 11:33 am

    That makes sense to me. I agree.

    felipe (023cc9)

  74. Gryph and Ragspierre,

    Take it down a notch. I don’t want to babysit threads for bad behavior. Thanks.

    Dana (4fb37f)

  75. Simon Jester linked a virology podcast called Microbe TV and one of the shows interviewed a New York doctor currently treating coronavirus patients. He said N95 masks are best but quickly become saturated due to coughing patients and other aerosols. He wears a washable cloth mask over his N95 mask. The washable masks are easier to find and can even be made out of hankerchiefs, so they can be changed frequently and protect the N95 mask. You could even wear layers of cloth, N95, cloth.

    DRJ (15874d)

  76. Trump’s initial response was to, ultimately, defend his image. No more, no less. You may call that cynical, I call it being a shrewd observer.

    Dana (4fb37f)

  77. If you go to the CDC link in the post, it will describe the different masks, as well as providing tips on how to make one at home, necessary cleaning process, etc. It’s a one-stop shop.

    Dana (4fb37f)

  78. Thank you (and Simon) DRJ, for re-posting the link. I missed it earlier.

    felipe (023cc9)

  79. Supplies govern our behavior in events like this. If we could have quickly provided or ramped up production of Covid tests, N95 masks and gloves, and random symptom-testing-stations for our entire population and required their use, then sweeping lockdowns might not have been necessary. We could trust people to make better decisions if we get the testing information and tools to try to protect ourselves.

    But it wasn’t done and I doubt it was possible, although I think it could be at some point. My feeling is when it is, then we should be willing to let people resume their lives — just as we let air travel resume with changes after 9/11.

    DRJ (15874d)

  80. When the chief executive cannot be convinced, or refuses to acknowledge the claims of experts that a pandemic is brewing, and the data coming in confirms such, everyone is immediately put in jeopardy, to one degree or another. His campaign of misinformation and denial was about himself, his ego, and his political future. We were at his mercy.

    Dana (4fb37f)

  81. > All voting should be in-person on election day. MAYBE including the prior weekend to avoid work conflicts. I’d say that elderly shut-ins should be able to vote by mail, but my experience is that their children do the voting anyway.

    so if the pandemic crisis hasn’t passed by then, what should we do? postpone the election? depend on poll workers (who skew old) to be willing to risk their lives to run the election? allow only people who test positive on an immunity test to vote?

    aphrael (7962af)

  82. > My guess is the problem isn’t that we can’t trust people, it is that highly urban populations are too vulnerable.

    It’s also that we *still* do not have sufficient testing capacity to differentiate the sick from the healthy. Successfully following an identify/isolate/treat regime requires that as a fundamental prerequisite.

    aphrael (7962af)

  83. I agree, aphrael.

    It is an excellent podcast, felipe. I join you in thanking Simon Jester.

    DRJ (15874d)

  84. > My guess is the problem isn’t that we can’t trust people, it is that highly urban populations are too vulnerable.

    Even as recently as yesterday, he was publically saying:

    * the CDC says you should wear masks
    * but it’s not required and you don’t have to
    * i’m not going to

    which is inconsistent messaging that undermines the public’s willingness to trust the CDC’s recommendations, and which will result in people choosing not to wear masks because the president says they shouldn’t.

    it was truly horrible leadership all around. *yesterday*.

    aphrael (7962af)

  85. Your willful failure to acknowledge the number of businesses that will have to close permanently is noted.

    What you are ignoring is the economic damage that would come if we didn’t “lockdown”. It would be just as bad. People who are trying to avoid a contagion don’t go out to eat, don’t go to stores, etc etc even if the government isn’t “encouraging” them to stay at home.

    If we did it your way, we would end up with the same economy damage, just not so dramatically visible.

    Kishnevi (2ec088)

  86. Come the middle of June, where models show the pandemic will have abated in the US, 97% of the US population will have no immunities to the virus due to the lock-down strategy. The US will also be $5 trillion in the hole. At that point the pressure to re-start the economy will be tremendous, and the First Rule of Holes will apply. But a likely outcome of that will be a resurgence of the pandemic, since few have any immunities.

    Now, maybe, an effective vaccine will have been developed, tested and approved, but that isn’t the way to bet. So, we will be looking at two or three stark bad choices:

    * repeat the lock-down until there is a vaccine (not a certainty, we don’t have one for the cold), or
    * adopt a sequester/quarantine strategy, where high-risk individuals are holed up and lesser-risk folks go back to work with frequent testing for infection, followed by quarantine, or
    * adopt a sequester-only strategy and let the virus run free through the 0-44 cohort. In both cases hoping for herd immunity by and by, while aggressively treating serious cases.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  87. Here is an interview that should have been headlined: An interview with the CDC director on coronavirus, masks, and an agency ignored by the MSM because the CDC won’t join in politicizing the issues

    felipe (023cc9)

  88. What do you do when there are only bad choices, some of them save lives in the short run but offer no closure, others offer closure but lead to more deaths before then?

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  89. Assuming we have the testing infrastructure, the least bad choice is probably to test everyone regularly, order confirmed cases to stay at home, and let everyone else out, hoping for the best.

    This is why ramping up testing capacity is the single biggest need right now.

    aphrael (7962af)

  90. Both Sweden and Italy have let this thing run through the population. In at lest Italy’s case no attempt was made to soften the blow. In about 3 months, maybe 4, we will see what happens “after.” Will acquired immunity protect more people in the long run, or not?

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  91. Assuming we have the testing infrastructure, the least bad choice is probably to test everyone regularly, order confirmed cases to stay at home, and let everyone else out, hoping for the best.

    I can’t speak for anyone else, but this high-risk person will continue to avoid crowds and take other precautions in any regime. Then again, like most of the over-65 brigade, I do not have to work for an income.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  92. A paranoid thought: How long before Capital decides that automation is more reliable than fragile humans?

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  93. aphrael (7962af) — 4/4/2020 @ 12:10 pm

    When I heard Trump say, “I’m not going to do it.” I thought “STFU! Shut up, shut up, shut up!”

    If we did it your way, we would end up with the same economy damage, just not so dramatically visible.
    Kishnevi (2ec088) — 4/4/2020 @ 12:12 pm

    Absolutely. To which I would add: “, and a higher death toll, in particular, among all healthcare workers”

    felipe (023cc9)

  94. For a high-risk person who doesn’t have to work for income, taking precautions is the right call.

    But it’s also not a call that’s available to a lot of people who have to work for an income.

    aphrael (7962af)

  95. > A paranoid thought: How long before Capital decides that automation is more reliable than fragile humans?

    well, yes. this is going to accelerate the push towards automation.

    long-term we’re going to have to adopt some form of UBI. there will be enormous cultural resistance to it.

    aphrael (7962af)

  96. But it’s also not a call that’s available to a lot of people who have to work for an income.

    The proportion of retired who are high-risk is a large number. The proportion of working people who are high-risk is much much smaller. 80% of deaths are 65+, and over half are 75+. Only one person under 25 has died, and under 45 amounts to 3.65% of deaths. Of the under 45 group, most of them know who they are (HIV+, cancer/transplant patients, severe asthmatics, etc). The latter can even be offered a temporary disability income at far less cost than the UI payments that will be going out over the next few months.

    Yes, you read stories about some 30yo runner dying of this, but those are news BECAUSE they are rare. Not so interesting is “79-yo man with congestive heart failure dies of Covid-19″

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  97. Trump Retaliates Against Another Figure From Impeachment

    There’s an old spaceflight term for that:

    retrofire.

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  98. Sure, and there are still a lot of people in their 60s whose finances are so bad that they have to work at walmart, target, etc, to make ends meet.

    aphrael (7962af)

  99. @99. Reaganomics.

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  100. And the retirement age for someone who is now 60 is almost seven years away.

    I could take Social Security as early as possible, next March. But it would represent a big cut for what I get if I wait until the full age of 66 and whatever fraction it is for my age group, and therefore a step I would take only if I really had to.

    Kishnevi (54fe57)

  101. A paranoid thought: How long before Capital decides that automation is more reliable than fragile humans?

    Thank you for getting in touch about this. I’m sorry you’ve had to deal with this. I’ve experienced this issue recently too.

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  102. felipe @ 88,

    I think this is the key problem, as the CDC director addresses in the interview: I think ultimately in these things it’s, how do you get full participation? I think you have to get the hearts and minds of people behind this.

    If stay-at-home and social distancing is the *the* main weapon we currently have in our arsenal to prevent the spread of the virus, how do you get everyone on board? Clearly, places like Laredo, Kentucky, Indiana, etc have drawn their lines in the sand, with other states looking at their own enforcement standards.

    Also, it was certainly a politician’s answer that he gave with regard to whether the sidelining of Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, came as a result of disagreeing with the WH:

    I think Nancy Messonnier is a gift to this nation. She’s a great talent. She continues to provide those talents and recommendations to the agency. She continues to run one of our most important centers for respiratory disease and immunization.

    Dana (4fb37f)

  103. I said what I said. And Sweden, with their less invasive protocols, is doing better than countries like Singapore, which are being more invasive. Their “failure to flatten the curve,” such as it is, means that they’ll be over the hump sooner.

    You truly don’t know any facts whatsoever, you are as wrong as is possible to be.
    Singapore Total Cases–1,189 Deaths–6
    Sweden Total Cases–6,443 Deaths–373

    This is despite an order of magnitude more trade and direct travel with China, plus a population density 340X higher.

    Social distancing is not a bad idea as far as it goes. Enforced house arrest under pain of fine or imprisonment? That is a bridge too far for me, thanks much.

    That’s a nice strawman you’ve got there. So far it’s a couple of Gryphs, who are known infected, actively putting others at risk, after being informed of their status, and happily spreadin’ it around…because liberty, freedom, Murka, or something.

    You’re not required to stay home for all reasons, you are just asked to not go out without a good reason. Where is martial law in effect in the US for a whole region or city, please identify the location?

    Colonel Klink (Ret) (305827)

  104. > known infected, actively putting others at risk, after being informed of their status

    those people should be arrested and charged with attempted murder.

    aphrael (7962af)

  105. Relax, it will get better…

    https://youtu.be/UNF1QqSnlwo

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  106. But worse before it gets better…

    https://youtu.be/lP5Xv7QqXiM

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  107. those people should be arrested and charged with attempted murder

    And yet, they are not. It’s almost like the argument is based on proof by assertion, instead actual proof.

    Colonel Klink (Ret) (305827)

  108. “ Both Sweden and Italy have let this thing run through the population. In at lest Italy’s case no attempt was made to soften the blow. In about 3 months, maybe 4, we will see what happens “

    In some cases we don’t need to wait to see what happens:

    https://theintercept.com/2020/04/02/coronavirus-europe-travel/

    “ As Covid-19 cripples the U.S. and ravages many countries in the world, politicians are battling to craft a narrative of who is to blame for its damage. The virus started in China, of course, but narratives of how it went from epidemic to global pandemic often leave out a crucial element: the role of Europe.

    European countries have been hit much harder than Asian nations and have spread the virus significantly more than other regions. The Intercept went through news reports of Covid-19 index cases across the world, and the results were startling. Travel from and within Europe preceded the first coronavirus cases in at least 93 countries across all five continents, accounting for more than half of the world’s index cases. Travel from Italy alone preceded index cases in at least 46 countries, compared to 27 countries associated with travel from China.

    When they take credit for flattening the curve I hope they take a few bows for helping share it with the world.

    Also:

    “The media has paid relatively little attention to the role of Europe as an accelerator of the virus’s spread. A popular New York Times data graphic, for example, tracks the spread of the virus but stops mapping the spread when China is no longer its main exporter.”

    I’m sure if it was the US it would be front page for a week.
    _

    harkin (b64479)

  109. Trump wants the NFL season to start in September:

    In a conference call with major league sports commissioners on Saturday, President Donald Trump said he believes the NFL season should start on time in September, sources familiar with the call told ESPN.

    Trump also said he hopes to have fans back in stadiums and arenas by August and September, sources said, although it is currently unclear if medical experts find that to be a realistic timeline amid the current coronavirus pandemic.

    NBA commissioner Adam Silver told those on the call that the leagues were the first to shut down and that they would love to lead the way in starting the economy once there was an “all clear” from public health officials, sources familiar with the call told ESPN.

    Trump also raised the idea of the leagues working together to lobby for tax incentives that used to exist for entertainment expenses, such as the ability to deduct concessions and tickets from taxes, sources said. That would be a way for leagues to jump-start fans’ ability to return to stadiums in a difficult economy.

    Trump likes to throw dates out there, doesn’t he. You would think he would always add that this is what I *hope* will happen, but let’s see what the experts advise us first.

    Contrast Trump to Gov. Newsom (CA):

    Asked if he anticipated that the NFL season would open in August or September with 80,000 fans, California Governor Gavin Newsom said, “I’m not anticipating that happening in this state.”

    “It’s interesting, I have a lot of friends that work in Major League Baseball and in the NFL, they’ve been asking me — in fact, a well-known athlete just asked me — a football player — if he expects to come back, I said, ‘I would move very cautiously in that expectation,'” Newsom said during his daily news briefing Saturday. “So look I’m not here to second guess anybody, but I am here to say this, our decision on that basis, at least here in the state of California, will be determined by the facts, will be determined by the health experts, will be determined by our capacity to meet this moment, bend the curve and have the appropriate community surveillance and testing to confidently determine whether that’s appropriate and right now I’m just focused on the immediate, but that’s not something I anticipate happening in the next few months.”

    Dana (4fb37f)

  110. yeah, its great the D’s control Calf and Newsome is fab. Just what we need in a state that loves open borders, high taxes, and big government.

    rcocean (1a839e)

  111. Yeah, Newsom’s just dreamy.

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  112. BTW, “The Bulwark” has given up any pretense of being Republican or Conservative. Time to take another Road says Bill Kristol. Can the dispatch gang and national review be far behind. Already, its hard to tell them from another Liberal website, except for the occasional tepid “The left has gone too far this time” articles. I think we’re going to see a complete re-alignment of what used to be called Conservatism Inc. into “Moderates Inc.” or perhaps “Business liberals.inc”.

    rcocean (1a839e)

  113. rcoean,

    Would you rather Newsom not be restrained and take a cautious approach? Would you rather he not defer to medical experts before moving forward?

    I don’t think the D or R after a governor’s name should make us throw the baby out with the bath water when dealing with a pandemic. If you take away the D and R after Trump and Newsom’s names, and tried to just read objectively the two statements, which one do you feel is a more thoughtful, reasoned, and cautious approach that would more likely ensure the safety of Americans?

    Dana (4fb37f)

  114. And how about Bloomberg blowing a half billion $ on his dead-as-a-doornail campaign.

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  115. BTW, “The Bulwark” has given up any pretense of being Republican or Conservative.

    That’s because the Republican brand is not tethered to anything even recognizable as “conservative”.

    Colonel Klink (Ret) (305827)

  116. There’s an interesting article in the local press about the background to the bay area shelter in place order, which was announced on 3-16 in a combined action by the counties exercising authority vested in the county health officials.

    Apparently from March 5 – March 14, the Santa Clara County health dept was running a small scale study of people who had respiratory symptoms but were confirmed to not have the flu. 11% of them turned out to be infected with SARS-CoV-2, and the number increased *fivefold* over the length of the study.

    On the 14th, when the data were clear, the county health people basically looked at each other and went “OH F*CK”, then got on the phone with the other bay area county health departments, presented their evidence, and said “we need to act NOW”.

    Since state law allows the county health people to do basically anything they want to protect the public from an epidemic, once the county health officers were all convinced, it was just a matter of logistics, and the order dropped *two days later*.

    It’s seriously one of the fastest responses i’ve ever seen from the government on *anything*.

    aphrael (7962af)

  117. I don’t think the D or R after a governor’s name should make us throw the baby out with the bath water when dealing with a pandemic. If you take away the D and R after Trump and Newsom’s names, and tried to just read objectively the two statements, which one do you feel is a more thoughtful, reasoned, and cautious approach that would more likely ensure the safety of Americans?

    I live in Northern KY across the river from Cincinnati, and DeWine(R-OH) is getting tremendous praise from everyone, including democrats. In Kentucky, Beshear(D) is getting the same. The amount of Team R folks that are actively happy that Beshear is in charge instead of Bevin, is kind of mind blowing. To be fair, Bevin was an a-hole.

    Competence in any official is what’s needed. Party be damned.

    Colonel Klink (Ret) (305827)

  118. dr. fauchi and cdc stages of masking grief. Denial: don’t wear they don’t work! Anger: your wasting masks and your selfishness will kill those who nead them! Depression: all the masks are gone! Bargaining: wear a bandana instead! Acceptance: everyone war a mask all the time!

    rota (8cefb7)

  119. rota (8cefb7) — 4/4/2020 @ 2:02 pm

    Too late, we already know.

    See Colonel Haiku (2601c0)@ — 4/4/2020 @ 11:13 am

    felipe (023cc9)

  120. LOL rota.

    Dustin (928d9a)

  121. Can the dispatch gang and national review be far behind.

    People with working brains will read them and know the answer themselves.

    Ragspierre (d9bec9)

  122. BTW, “The Bulwark” has given up any pretense of being Republican or Conservative.

    It’s certainly never had any pretense of humping Trump. The same can’t be said for FoxNews, RedState, The Federalist, the WSJ, the NY Post, American Greatness, Rush Limbaugh, OAN, etc.
    I don’t know if Cathy Young is a Republican, but she’s been solid conservative for two decades.

    Paul Montagu (f57f23)

  123. >DeWine(R-OH) is getting tremendous praise from everyone

    He deserves it.

    This isn’t a partisan thing. This is a *character* thing and a *competence* thing. Some public officials are demonstrating tremendous character and compromise. Others … aren’t.

    aphrael (7962af)

  124. So I absented myself to the basement to watch the briefing. Nope, can’t keep watching. I don’t care if Joe Biden is on the iron lung, he, or anyone else with a shred of a chance to flush this turd, I’m in.

    What a POS, Trump needs the 25th amendment solution immediately; it’s obvious, it’s blatant, it’s required.

    Colonel Klink (Ret) (305827)

  125. Don’t blow an O-ring klink.

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  126. So the banks are having problems processing the PPP, because the admin has yet to communicate details of the Munch’s plan. We know this because “the banks” CEO’s, JPMC, BofA, have said as much.

    Trump when asked about the banks not processing PPP loans yet because of said unknowns.

    He first insults the reporter, about the 4th time when asked a straightforward question. Then says it’s been a flawless rollout, they are way ahead of projections (that we’re a day into, so ahead of what?) and far beyond “our” expectations.

    Trump said “I haven’t even heard of a glitch, there’s been billions of dollars of loans already, great loans, that immediately get paid off, I wish you’d ask a question where things that are going so well.” “Perfect, tremendously successful”

    This guy shouldn’t be in charge of the McDonalds fryer. He’s an IDIOT, it isn’t senility, it’s just that he’s really fundamentally mentally incompetent.

    Yes, I turned it back on.

    Colonel Klink (Ret) (305827)

  127. My wife and daughter made pizza dough yesterday. And know the house smells like a Italian Pizzeria.

    mg (8cbc69)

  128. “ Since state law allows the county health people to do basically anything they want to protect the public from an epidemic, once the county health officers were all convinced, it was just a matter of logistics, and the order dropped *two days later*.”
    _

    Sounds like that infectious diseases doc in WA who ignored the stop order from the CDC etc., resumed testing and convinced the local health board to close that infected school.
    _

    harkin (b64479)


  129. Ken Rosenthal
    @Ken_Rosenthal

    Baseball is considering playing in empty spring training parks, with no fans and quarantined players. But the logistics of such a plan would be extremely complex, and perhaps insurmountable.
    __ _

    Sean Spicier
    @sean_spicier

    WNBA has the blueprints
    __

    harkin (b64479)

  130. WNBA has the blueprints

    hahahahahaha

    This guy shouldn’t be in charge of the McDonalds fryer. He’s an IDIOT, it isn’t senility, it’s just that he’s really fundamentally mentally incompetent.

    The emperor has no clothes. To the loyal, saying it proves you’re one of the hysterical and evil enemy team. But Trump was an idiot for decades. Steve Bannon and pals just thought the destructive incompetence would be a cute way to rid us of a lot of government functions. In fact, I bet these guys still think this was clever. Can’t make an omelette without breaking some eggs.

    Dustin (928d9a)

  131. Harkin: yeah, I can see the analogy.

    I keep saying this, and I really mean it: i’ve never been this happy with my local government. The crisis is by no means over, even here, but we managed to get out ahead of it in exactly the way I wish the entire country had done, and I am *super lucky* to live here.

    I look at what’s going on in my other home and despair.

    aphrael (7962af)

  132. “This is not a major threat to the people of the United States and this is not something that the citizens of the United States should be worried about right now.”

    —- Dr. Fauci, 1/26/2020

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2020/04/03/virus_experts_early_statements_belie_prescient_portrayal_142845.html

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  133. That’s weird that the WNBA got invited, seems like a gambit meant to impress a certain female Georgia senator with a passing resemblance to “crushes” whose getting crap from some of the more pitchfork populist wings of the party.

    urbanleftbehind (59e165)

  134. long-term we’re going to have to adopt some form of UBI. there will be enormous cultural resistance to it.

    Because it is a poverty trap and it’s mainly a way for the elites to assuage their guilt over writing off a large part of the population. Much like AFDC was a way for whites to paper over their guilt for racism and Jim Crow. It turned out to be more damaging then helpful.

    It also is unsustainable in a democratic system. When the people who are being written off find that they and their offspring are a permanent dependent (and often under-) class, and they can vote, it becomes harder and harder to keep them content with the system.

    Eventually you get Populism, and as we’ve seen recently, that is a very blunt instrument.

    Short of a post-scarcity Utopia, where most wants are met and work is completely optional, it becomes a class system pretty quickly.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  135. This crisis will be resolved by truckers running the long haul on deserted highways, doctors and nurse working double shifts in scavenged PPE, grocery store and gas station employees keeping services and food available, utility and telecom workers keeping a strained system functioning, grad students and other researchers poring over data and running countless tests in hopes of giving us an advantage, and ordinary people trying to follow often-contradictory guidance and do the right thing while facing a locked-down economy. At the top, we have leaders whose every move is scrutinized and fraught with potential peril – there might not be any good choices, just bad and not so bad.

    There is no room for our useless media and most of the commentariat. Activists can either pitch in or get lost. We no longer have time for indulging the delusion that they matter.

    —- Omega Paladin, 4/3/2020

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  136. >Short of a post-scarcity Utopia, where most wants are met and work is completely optional, it becomes a class system pretty quickly.

    The alternative in a world with automation is a small handful of very wealthy people and a large population of people who survive by providing personal services to the wealthy, but who are paid subsistence wages.

    The industrial middle class model doesn’t work in an automated world.

    aphrael (7962af)

  137. I could take Social Security as early as possible, next March.

    If you look at the numbers, you will find that the age where you get a cross-over — where the cumulative income received would have been greater if you had waited, is well into your 70’s. And that ignores the present-value of money, the possibility of a future Social Security haircut and your personal life expectancy, which may not be that long. The only real reason not to take SS early is if you are still working. If you are not working, most people should take it at 62 even if they have enough savings to wait.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  138. Dammit, I hope this was followed up on and this cretin was arrested…

    https://twitter.com/209TimesCA/status/1244768513199206400

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  139. You truly don’t know any facts whatsoever, you are as wrong as is possible to be.

    Using absolute numbers is misleading, as Sweden has twice the population of Singapore. Singapore also has twice the per capita GDP of Sweden, which translates into better medical care. OTOH, Singapore and a much greater need for isolation as it is far more dense. Much of Sweden is quite rural.

    As I’ve said elsewhere, the real test of the various choices will be seen at the end of the year when the effects of post-infection immunity show up. China is now seeing a second wave of pandemic.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  140. Competence in any official is what’s needed. Party be damned.

    In this, yes. I am not really all that much in favor of a competent taxer or gun-grabber.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  141. The alternative in a world with automation is a small handful of very wealthy people and a large population of people who survive by providing personal services to the wealthy, but who are paid subsistence wages.

    They said that at every point in the 20th century, and at every point personal service jobs decreased. Only in California are the middle-class disappearing, and it’s not due to jobs, it’s due to costs and the state subsidizing some people.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  142. I agree, Haiku, that was a horrible thing to do. She didn’t appear ignorant to the situation when the other patron mentioned it, just more determined to touch all of them.

    Dana (4fb37f)

  143. Competence in any official is what’s needed. Party be damned.

    And as someone who didn’t support Newsom in the election, I have no complaints overall, about how he’s handled the crisis in California.

    Dana (4fb37f)

  144. At least give the clever Twitter guy credit for his mask humor, and admit if you saw it at Ace of Spades.

    DRJ (15874d)

  145. There is no room for our useless media and most of the commentariat. Activists can either pitch in or get lost. We no longer have time for indulging the delusion that they matter.

    —- Omega Paladin, 4/3/2020

    So, when’s this guy gonna start pitching in?

    Davethulhu (3857ea)

  146. Here is Gov. Newsom’s daily update from today. See what you think. (Caitlin Flannagan: Taking full, personal responsibility” is the sexy new way to say “if there’s a brokered convention, I’m available.” Heh.)

    Dana (4fb37f)

  147. >They said that at every point in the 20th century

    And AI-driven automation is a different beast entirely.

    The day will come when there are zero jobs in retail sales, zero jobs in transportation, and virtually zero jobs in manufacturing. What are the people who rely on those industries for income supposed to do?

    aphrael (7962af)

  148. Remember the acres of typists clacking away in those immense typing pools? Did they all starve to death or go in the dole? Of course not!

    The day is far in the future3 when there will be no drivers needed intra-city. Even long haul will only see a limited displacement by automation.

    Ragspierre (d9bec9)

  149. And AI-driven automation is a different beast entirely.

    The day will come when there are zero jobs in retail sales, zero jobs in transportation, and virtually zero jobs in manufacturing. What are the people who rely on those industries for income supposed to do?

    Yeah, like Skynet is going to let us stay around. Unless it’s the Matrix which takes over, of course, in which case we’ll be batteries.

    nk (1d9030)

  150. This pandemic lockdown (which I generally agree with, with qualifications) will be used as an argument for all kinds of stuff.

    One obvious example will be requiring AI driving your car, which will require use of a licensed service. Those services will probably store everything about where you go (to sell you advertisements on your dashboard), making police investigations much easier. This could save tens of thousands of lives and enormous medical costs from accidents. It will also promote lots of car sales.

    Dustin (928d9a)

  151. 152… I’ll be dressed for the occasion… https://www.amazon.com/Dress-Up-America-Energizer-Costume/dp/B00XLPB7LW

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  152. Those services will probably store everything about where you go (to sell you advertisements on your dashboard), making police investigations much easier.

    Google already does that which is how it tells you how traffic is flowing on a route you’ve mapped. So do either or both the Starbucks and McDonald’s apps which track which fast food place you’re a certain distance from at some particular time.

    Personally, I’d make car AIs that can instantaneously switch to self-driving mode mandatory for all teenagers who just got their drivers licenses.

    nk (1d9030)

  153. “ The day will come when there are zero jobs in the horse and buggy and carriage industry., zero jobs in growing hay and virtually zero jobs in the livery and ferrier lines. What are the people who rely on those industries for income supposed to do once everyone has transitioned to these loud, smoky auto-mobiles?”
    _

    harkin (b64479)

  154. In the Larry Niven dystopia, a third offense of overriding the AI in your flying car over a populated area carried the death penalty.

    Well, do you want flying cars or don’t you?

    nk (1d9030)

  155. One of the realtors at our office has a granddaughter who has been sick, and she just tested positive for COVID-19. A six months old baby! Doubtless the entire family, including the grandmother, has at least been exposed to the SARS-COV-2 virus, though they are asymptomatic at this time.

    Another realtor at our office has tested positive for the coronavirus, but she’s asymptomatic and doesn’t believe she will get sick, because she doesn’t have any underlying conditions. So she thinks she can keep working.

    My mother and her partner told them both, in no uncertain terms, STAY AWAY FROM THE OFFICE!

    My mother’s partner is a bit of a paranoid. A little over two weeks ago, he went to HEB, then to Costco, and when he saw bare shelves and all the toilet paper sold out, he went home and locked the door. He hasn’t left his house since, except to buy food and other necessities. That was a week before the stay-at-home policy was implemented and enforced.

    Effective Monday, everyone has to wear facial covering, a mask, scarf or bandana, when they leave their house. Gatherings larger than groups of ten are prohibited.

    The Board of Realtors has postponed the payment date for 2nd quarter dues for a month and will void 3rd quarter dues altogether. That’s a glaring indication the real estate market will be dead for the next several months. Also, there’s a moratorium on foreclosures and evictions. That means our income is effectively reduced to zero for the foreseeable future. We might as well be unemployed, but can’t file for unemployment benefits because technically we are employed, just without pay.

    The NFL is in complete denial if it thinks everything will be sunshine and roses come September. There won’t be cheering fans filling stadiums any more than there will be smiling unicorns dancing under rainbows of joy. No one is going to have any money to waste on a football game, not to mention fear of a second wave of the pandemic will be paramount. There aren’t going to be any large public gatherings for at least a year. It sucks, but this is the grim reality.

    The economic impact of this shut down will be long lasting. We’re heading into a deep recession that will make the 2008 financial crisis seem like a common cold. Millions have lost their jobs, and many of those jobs are not coming back. Thousands of businesses have closed, and many will not reopen. Any recovery will be slow, and return to normalcy is so far off in the distant future it can’t be seen with a super-telescope.

    That’s what has Trump flailing about so desperately. His hotels, resorts and golf courses are losing millions every week, and he’s laying off thousands of workers around the globe. But that’s the least of his worries. It’s the damage to his name brand he fears the most. The damage caused by his utter failure as President of the United States will be permanent. The worse this pandemic gets the more it will be forever associated with his ineptitude and incompetence.

    Oh, well, I didn’t vote for him.

    Gawain's Ghost (b25cd1)

  156. 34.How do we feel about being fined for not wearing a mask into a public building, or a curfew, as in Laredo, TX?

    Are they on horseback? There’s something about masked men in gun-toting Laredo, Texas that “returns us now to those thrilling days of yesteryear, when from out of the past come the thundering hoofbeats of the great horse Silver! The Lone Ranger rides again!”

    ‘Course, if Frankie & Annette try to play ‘Beach Blanket Bingo’ they’ll be ticketed:

    The San Diego County Sheriff’s Dept., is issuing citations to people found violating the stay-at-home-order at beaches. – source, https://www.nbcsandiego.com

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  157. Gawain’s Ghost,

    I’m sorry to hear about your employment situation. This is going to hit many people in many different ways depending on their source of income and type of employment they are involved with.

    I’m so sad to hear about the six-month-old baby too. I’m wondering, since there have been so few cases that we know about, if they are considered more vulnerable because of their age, or, because of their age, they are able to fight it off better? I haven’t looked it up, so I don’t know. But prayers for the little one.

    Dana (4fb37f)

  158. GG,

    I’ll copy Dana and say your six month old is in my prayers.

    because she doesn’t have any underlying conditions. So she thinks she can keep working.

    Ugh. Folks have a way of seeing what they want to see.

    Dustin (d24bb6)

  159. Boeing to offer employees voluntary layoffs amid coronavirus pandemic – CNBC

    Boeing is set to offer buyout and early retirement packages to employees to stem the fallout from the coronavirus pandemic.

    Creative accounting; aka Reaganomics.

    Yeah w/that massive Trump tax break they sure need $13 billion bailouts… like the rest of us need to come down w/ CornyVee.

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  160. Let’s not forget the unsung heroes in all this. The governors, county commissioners, and mayors who told women that hair salons are not essential.

    23 states, one territory, 84 counties, and 17 cities, as of March 30.

    That’s courage!

    nk (1d9030)

  161. Praying for the granddaughter.

    mg (8cbc69)

  162. I may have already posted this here a few days ago but posting it again can’t hurt:

    These Coronavirus Exposures Might Be the Most Dangerous

    The importance of viral dose is being overlooked in discussions of the coronavirus. As with any other poison, viruses are usually more dangerous in larger amounts. Small initial exposures tend to lead to mild or asymptomatic infections, while larger doses can be lethal.

    From a policy perspective, we need to consider that not all exposures to the coronavirus may be the same. Stepping into an office building that once had someone with the coronavirus in it is not as dangerous as sitting next to that infected person for an hourlong train commute.

    This may seem obvious, but many people are not making this distinction. We need to focus more on preventing high-dose infection.

    Both small and large amounts of virus can replicate within our cells and cause severe disease in vulnerable individuals such as the immunocompromised. In healthy people, however, immune systems respond as soon as they sense a virus growing inside. Recovery depends on which wins the race: viral spread or immune activation.

    Virus experts know that viral dose affects illness severity. In the lab, mice receiving a low dose of virus clear it and recover, while the same virus at a higher dose kills them. Dose sensitivity has been observed for every common acute viral infection that has been studied in lab animals, including coronaviruses.“

    https://dnyuz.com/2020/04/01/these-coronavirus-exposures-might-be-the-most-dangerous/
    _ _

    Also:

    Italy’s dead include 74 doctors and 24 nurses.
    _

    harkin (b64479)

  163. “ The governors, county commissioners, and mayors who told women that hair salons are not essential.”
    _

    Customer having nails done: “Did you hear about that couple in AZ who drank aquarium cleaner?”

    Madge: “You’re soaking in it”
    _

    harkin (b64479)

  164. 12.

    Gryph (08c844) — 4/4/2020 @ 10:09 am

    AND…assuming that he can afford to do this for a month or two, what happens when this thing drags on into the Summer or even the Fall? How many months do you think he can afford to cut his tenants a break before his “generosity” starts to hurt him in a very real and tangible way?

    He doesn;t hve mch of a choice anyway, and he’ll ask for a deal with bank, and credit cards. Employees may be [aid for by tax credit.

    Nobody know what thinks are going to look like later. People owing each other and banks money. And maybe taxes too, There;s no plans for that. Sheila Bair at least is thinking about that.

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/exclusive-fed-is-throwing-money-in-the-wrong-place-says-sheila-bair-former-top-banking-regulator-2020-03-15

    Sammy Finkelman (4eddd7)

  165. I looked at New York Post of Saturday March 14.

    It reported South China Morning Post story.

    Patient zero – except this wasn’t really the first anyway – was a 55 year old man on Nov 17. After that 1 to 5 new cases each day. First nine cases were four men and five women age range 39-79.

    By Dec 27 a doctor had told Chinese national health authorities that a new coronavirus was responsible. More than 180 infected at least 266 by the end of the year.

    Second US case was a woman in her 60s who travelled from Wuhan who went to Chicago. She went to doctor six days after symptoms. Husband who did not go to China tested positive so they knew acquired person to person.

    They identified 347 people who might have had contact – 195 health care workers and 152 others. 43 had symptoms but none tested positive.(which could mean weak infections and tested too late)

    (from Dr Jennifer Layden, chief medical officer of the Chicago Department of Public Health)

    So: People test positive and have no symptoms. And people have symptoms but don’t test positive (if test is delayed?)

    And also I read virus could be found in secretions up to 50 days later (maybe not very infectious then)

    Sammy Finkelman (4eddd7)

  166. #118, re: Santa Clara County —

    It’s seriously one of the fastest responses i’ve ever seen from the government on *anything*

    As soon as my county issued a “shelter in place” instruction for 3 weeks, I knew this was something to take seriously, and that people who know things I don’t — aka “experts” — saw some urgency in taking unusual measures to protect lives and health.
    Somehow it didn’t occur to me that it could be just a bunch of partisan lefties trying to hurt Donald Trump — by inflicting economic harm on a local population that doesn’t include a great many Trump supporters.
    Maybe I’m blinkered by the “NeverTrump bubble” and not reading enough of the people who will explain to me how Trump is always wise and courageous while all the haters are so singularly focused on hurting him that they’ll gladly cause a lot of collateral damage even to people who can’t wait to vote him out of office.

    Radegunda (39c35f)

  167. (maybe not very infectious then)

    A reporter who was covering the earliest phase of containment efforts in NY threw a birthday party for her elderly mother, and not long afterward a dozen or so of the attendees were sick, and some dead.

    A read a similar story about a group who attended an event in Utah to celebrate the achievements of black skiers. A bunch of them got sick, and 2 or more have died.

    There are relatively young, “never get sick” people who have been struck down. I’ve never really been sick in decades except for a cold now & then, and one very mild and brief flu-like episode. I do not assume that my pretty good immune system is a magic shield in this situation.

    Radegunda (39c35f)

  168. ho attended an event in Utah

    Correction — I meant Idaho (most probably).

    Radegunda (39c35f)

  169. “ How do we feel about being fined for not wearing a mask into a public building, or a curfew, as in Laredo, TX?”

    – Dana

    How do we feel about getting tickets for not wearing our seatbelts?

    It’s a new normal, but the constitutional analysis doesn’t change that much.

    Leviticus (c68ea0)

  170. “ Correction — I meant Idaho”

    I heard the very small town of Idaho City was getting slammed.
    _

    harkin (b64479)

  171. Americans are drinking a crazy amount of alcohol during coronavirus lockdown

    https://nypost.com/2020/03/31/americans-drinking-crazy-amount-of-alcohol-during-coronavirus-lockdown/
    __

    Also: Based on toilet paper sales, Americans defecating at six times average rate.

    H/t – Instapundit
    _

    harkin (b64479)

  172. Looks like Colonel Haiku and rota get their talking points from the same source.

    Leviticus (c68ea0)

  173. “ Short of a post-scarcity Utopia, where most wants are met and work is completely optional, it becomes a class system pretty quickly.”

    – Kevin M

    Good point, wouldn’t want to have a class system in this country.

    Leviticus (c68ea0)

  174. Now some 100 year old t.b. drug to strengthen the immune system is supposed to save us!

    rota (35c7d4)

  175. Also: Based on toilet paper sales, Americans defecating at six times average rate.

    America’s toilet-flushing crisis surfaced at the exact moment the germ was breaking out in China.

    Coincidence? I don’t think so…

    And what has Donald Trump done about it in the intervening four months?

    Not a damn thing.

    Dave (1bb933)

  176. Dana

    Yes, it’s really sad about the baby. When my mother first told me that one of the realtor’s granddaughter was sick and had tested positive, I really didn’t think much of it. I mean, this coronavirus is getting around. And entire nursing home in Cameron County was infected last month, which was not unexpected, as the virus appears to be spreading rapidly in nursing homes across the nation. I figured the granddaughter was young, relatively healthy with no underlying conditions, and she would probably recover in a few weeks. But when I learned she was only six months old, I kind of freaked out. Infections in infants that young are extremely rare, so far, but it does go to show that anyone can get infected. It broke my heart, but the consolation is that she’s so young, she has no comprehension of what’s happening. I hope and pray that she lives.

    I’m more concerned about the rest of the family. One of them infected the infant and almost certainly all the rest. How many other people has this asymptomatic carrier infected? That’s the real problem with this coronavirus. We simply have no idea how many people are infected and unknowingly spreading the virus around. Hence, the stay-at-home orders and economic shutdown.

    Dustin

    Yeah, I can’t believe how stupid this woman is. She knows she has the coronavirus, but thinks she can keep working because she doesn’t have any symptoms? What an idiot, she’ll infect the entire office! And anyone she comes in contact with. That’s why my mother and her partner told her stay home, far away from the office. Sometimes people have to have common sense beaten into them with a hammer.

    As for the real estate market, it’s going to be severely depressed for several months, maybe a year. Not just here, but nationwide. The summer months always have the highest sales volume, but not this year. That’s going to hurt a lot of realtors everywhere, because every realtor works on a pure commission basis. We only get paid after closing and funding, which often takes weeks after an agreed upon sale. When there are no sales, there is no income. And it costs money to maintain a license, pay for board membership and MLS dues. You have to spend money, but aren’t able to make money. That’s just the way it is.

    So this summer the market is effectively closed, boarded up, shut down. No one is going to be buying a house and moving, not in this economic environment. Even if this pandemic passes, and doesn’t return in a second wave in the fall, the market isn’t going to suddenly rebound. The winter months always have the lowest sales volume, because of the holidays, Thanksgiving, Christmas, New Year’s, and the hesitation to buy until after property and income taxes are paid.

    The market will not begin to recover until after April 15, 2021. I anticipate a lot of realtors will be broke and out of business by then. I also anticipate a huge wave of foreclosures between now and then. There is a temporary moratorium in place at this time, but eventually the bills are going to come due. And if, as I fear, this economic downturn is severe, a lot of people are not going to be able to pay those bills and will lose their homes.

    Oh, well, too bad, so sad, as my mother always says. She’s kind of heartless in that regard, but she is not unsympathetic. She specializes in repossessed homes, and she always treats occupants with respect and tries to help them in any way she can, to ease the process. Offer them cash for keys, for example. But a foreclosure is a foreclosure, and an eviction is an eviction. There’s no two ways about it.

    I’ve been to several forcible evictions, and let me tell you, they’re not pretty. An occupant family refuses to leave a foreclosed property. Hey, deputy sheriffs will show up with guns and throw them out on the street. Then load up all of their personal property and take it to a storage unit for sale at auction. These poor people, they’re crying on the street, looking at me, saying you’re the realtor, can’t you do something? It’s heartbreaking, but there is nothing I can do. They should have taken the cash for keys when offered. They did not, and this is the result. Now they’re left crying on the street with nothing. It’s painful, believe me, but the law is the law and the law will be enforced, without passion or prejudice.

    As for us, don’t worry about us. We have plenty of savings to weather this storm. Condos are paid for, cars are paid for, our only expenses are utilities and property taxes. Food and other necessities are built into the budget. We’ll be fine. We won’t have any money to pay for exotic vacations, but then we wouldn’t waste money on anything like that in the first place. Cruise ships are out of the question.

    We’re just hunkered down for a while. Of course, this shut down is making my mother stir crazy, and she’s driving me insane. She cannot, will not, stay at home. She must keep working, it’s her nature. She will not stop, no matter what. I keep telling her, mother, take some time off, relax, heal. She just underwent a right breast mastectomy and underarm lymph node removal, after three months of chemotherapy and a month of radiation treatment.

    She came out of surgery and within 30 minutes, she was on her iPhone, working. “I have two new listings!” Okay, just give me the addresses and I’ll take care of them. I am a licensed realtor after all, and this is what I do. No, no, no, no, no, she said. She must keep working. To her, work is life, working is living, and if she stops working, she will die. She truly believes that, and thus she will not stop. She just keeps going and going, like the Energizer Realtor.

    I had to drive her to the locations for the initial inspections, because her arm was in a sling. Not that I couldn’t have it myself, but she insisted. That lasted about two days. She took of her sling, against doctor’s advice, because it was interfering with her ability to work. 80 years old, she’s indefatigable. She will not stop. She certainly won’t listen to me. Even though I am perfectly capable of doing any assignment, she has to do everything herself. It’s maddening, but that’s my mother. TREC gave her a Realtor Emeritus award last month, for being a successful broker for over 45 years, and that only motivated her to not stop working. It’s madness, I know, but there’s very little I can do about it. All I can really do is keep her well fed, which I do. One wholesome, nutritious, simply delicious meal a day. That’s all she will eat. She doesn’t eat breakfast, she doesn’t eat lunch, just the one meal I prepare for her. She doesn’t like restaurant food or carry out, it’s too bland. My meals are spicy, and that’s what she likes. Every meal I prepare is fully balanced, with protein, carbohydrates, vitamins and minerals–everything you need to survive on one plate. That’s all she’ll eat, one meal prepared by me. So I take that job very seriously. Hey, she is my mother, and I have to take care of her. The meals I prepare keep her alive, and that’s all that matters.

    There’s not much for either of us to do at this point. We have two listings, in San Juan and Weslaco, but about all we can do is drive by once a week to make sure they haven’t been broken into or vandalized. That costs money, time and gas, with no sale in sight. But that’s the cost of doing business. We will survive and thrive, once this is all said and done.

    Gawain's Ghost (b25cd1)

  177. Your a great person Gawain’s Ghost, and your mom sounds like one heckuva lady.

    mg (8cbc69)

  178. Dave @179. Who is the Nosferatu at 26 seconds in, in the second video? In the blue dress with the New York accent and silicone lips. I know the blonde in white is Kellyanne.

    nk (1d9030)

  179. It’s certainly never had any pretense of humping Trump

    Yawn. The Bulwark and the Dispatch gang have been humping Schumer and Pelosi for the last 2 years. They’re also have become Joe Biden humpers.

    rcocean (1a839e)

  180. The left-wing political site “Memorandum” is constantly highlighting David French and “The Bulwark” as they attack Rush Limbaugh, Republicans, and anyone who disagrees with Pelosi Schumer or Biden. They’ve obviously made the move to the D party. Matt Lewis is already there, he’s cheerleading for Biden. And now that a Bush family member lost a R Primary in Texas, how much longer before the Bushies all turn D. After all “Barb” and G.Bush voted for Hillary in 2016.

    rcocean (1a839e)

  181. The “Renowned Mr. Brown” is on the smoker today. Smoked meats preserve longer than oven cooked meats.

    mg (8cbc69)

  182. Judge Jeanne Pirro, who actually topped that trying to do her show drunk.

    urbanleftbehind (3aabcf)

  183. Regular pig or long pig? J/K! Prayers for your grand daughter on the day of my favorite mass of the year, mg.

    urbanleftbehind (3aabcf)

  184. Ironic that he little brown one stayed truest of all, rcocean.

    urbanleftbehind (3aabcf)

  185. The left-wing political site “Memorandum” is constantly highlighting David French and “The Bulwark” as they attack Rush Limbaugh, Republicans, and anyone who disagrees with Pelosi Schumer or Biden.

    Post SOME linkssssssss, since they are doing this “constantly”.

    Ragspierre (d9bec9)

  186. Thanks, urbanleftbehind. As if the Zombie Apocalypse people needed more triggers ….

    nk (9651fb)

  187. Boston Butt of the shoulder, urbanleftbehind.

    mg (8cbc69)

  188. The Bulwark and the Dispatch gang have been humping Schumer and Pelosi for the last 2 years. They’re also have become Joe Biden humpers.

    Yeah, that’s ridiculous binary thinking. And false. Opposing Trump does not equal supporting Democrats.

    Paul Montagu (f57f23)

  189. IIRC, The Dispatch hasn’t even existed for two years.

    Ragspierre (d9bec9)

  190. Dave @179. Who is the Nosferatu at 26 seconds in, in the second video? In the blue dress with the New York accent and silicone lips.

    I love her dismissive “It’s a virus.” As if that proves it can’t be extremely dangerous. Ebola is “a virus” and it kills about half the people that contract it. HIV is “a virus” and it was a death sentence until treatments were developed over time.

    I know the blonde in white is Kellyanne.

    Gaslighting like a boss…

    Dave (1bb933)

  191. IIRC, The Dispatch hasn’t even existed for two years.

    In TrumpWorld, the facts never get in the way of a good narrative.

    Dave (1bb933)

  192. Laurence Tribe
    @tribelaw
    ·
    What if we were to learn that Trump suppressed scary information re COVID-19 (and the needed federal response) in January to postpone the economic turndown until it could no longer endanger his Senate acquittal? Retweet if you wouldn’t be surprised by his making that tradeoff.
    __ _

    Stephen L. Miller
    @redsteeze
    ·
    This person advised Nancy Pelosi on Impeachment strategy.

    _

    harkin (b64479)

  193. Sometimes people have to have common sense beaten into them with a hammer.

    Don’t give up on verbal persuasion, it’s much cleaner.

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  194. Judge Judy stunt double, of all people, should watch her mouth. She is a trifecta of high risk demos.

    urbanleftbehind (3aabcf)

  195. Looks like Colonel Haiku and rota get their talking points from the same source.

    Funny how a silly tweet bothers some people. Alas that these evil days should be mine.

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  196. From yesterday’s briefing…

    I want to thank the American people, most of all for the selfless sacrifices that they’re making for our nation. I know it’s not pleasant. Although some people have said they’ve gotten to know their family better and they love their family more than ever, and that’s a beautiful thing. They’ve actually gotten to know them. They’re in the same house with their family for a long time. I guess it can also work the other way perhaps, but we don’t want to talk about that.

    Comedy Gold

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  197. Yeah, my snark was tacky. Sorry about that.

    Leviticus (c68ea0)

  198. Capt. Crozier, recently removed from command of CVN Theodore Roosevelt, has tested positive for Covid.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/05/magazine/navy-captain-crozier-positive-coronavirus.html

    Davethulhu (3857ea)

  199. The Bulwark and the Dispatch gang have been humping Schumer and Pelosi for the last 2 years. They’re also have become Joe Biden humpers.

    This is false, and it’s the same sort of thinking I saw among Trump fans way back in the 2005-6 primaries: If I noted any evidence that Trump is a malignant narcissist and a chronic liar and an ignoramus who thinks he’s a genius, they insisted that I had to be a leftist – an enemy of all that is right and good.

    Trump is still that person, but getting mentally slower. His psychological pathology makes him unfit to handle a crisis. Dems can be wrong about many things but still right in seeing the most obvious truths about Trump.

    Trump’s awfulness has caused some people to believe that Biden is the least bad alternative in the near future. The Trump boosters set up this grim choice, but they’ll never admit that they were pushing a fanciful picture of their hero. Instead, they keep insisting (like Trump himself) that the real problem is the people who don’t praise him enough.

    Radegunda (a94765)

  200. This is false, and it’s the same sort of thinking I saw among Trump fans way back in the 2005-6 primaries: If I noted any evidence that Trump is a malignant narcissist and a chronic liar and an ignoramus who thinks he’s a genius, they insisted that I had to be a leftist – an enemy of all that is right and good.

    Trump is the walking talking example of the Dunning Kruger effect.

    Colonel Klink (Ret) (305827)

  201. My favorite was being called…among many other things…a “cuck”.

    You simply could not look objectively at who Duh Donald had been for decades without being the embodiment of all that’s weak and evil in America.

    Funny though…everything we predicted about how terrible he would be for conservatives came true in spades. Not to say he’s done nothing…or has seen done…is good. There are such things.

    Ragspierre (d9bec9)

  202. Trump is the walking talking example of the Dunning Kruger effect.

    What can men do against such reckless hate

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  203. What can men do against such reckless hate

    Wake up…?

    That’d be a start.

    Ragspierre (d9bec9)

  204. Not to say he’s done nothing…or has seen done…is good. There are such things.

    Such strangling of the King’s English! How did it come to this ?

    I take my leave…

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  205. I’ll watch for your critique of those with whom you agree.

    Without offering an excuse, I’ll note that my hands make typing difficult. So the King will have to forgive me.

    Ragspierre (d9bec9)

  206. I’m still not watching TV news because lol circus but from the screen captures I’ve seen from this morning, that part of the Batman movie where news anchors afraid of death have no makeup has become reality.

    Love That Joker!

    harkin (b64479)

  207. Everyone is disappointed. Trump fans wanted him to triumph, obviously, and he hasn’t. Trump critics expected a disaster. A pandemic has been widely predicted for the past five years, and I think we could have done a better job, but this kind of problem simply does not fit well with the hyper partisan (and therefore minimal accountability) system of government. We’re seeing how states, senators, congressmen, governors, the president, a lot of them try to work together, but there are enough who can’t. It’s pretty hard for a state to work with the feds when all their precious medical supplies are taken by FEMA, and the vice president won’t return your calls if you don’t praise the presidential administration.

    Mitt Romney was right about Trump. He’s been on both sides of all issues so I guess I understand why he can see things more clearly than more conventional Republicans.

    Dustin (928d9a)

  208. Gruber/Romney/2020

    mg (8cbc69)

  209. Anybody/Else 2020

    Dustin (928d9a)

  210. 76. DRJ (15874d) — 4/4/2020 @ 11:42 am

    Simon Jester linked a virology podcast called Microbe TV and one of the shows interviewed a New York doctor currently treating coronavirus patients. He said N95 masks are best but quickly become saturated due to coughing patients and other aerosols. He wears a washable cloth mask over his N95 mask. The washable masks are easier to find and can even be made out of hankerchiefs, so they can be changed frequently and protect the N95 mask. You could even wear layers of cloth, N95, cloth.

    Probably all very true, but do you expect the CDC etc to quickly change their advice? It’s all unproven!

    We can’t go on this way.

    What if this waa a really serious disease?

    It’s OK, or rather tolerated with diseases we live with. You can;t do this with a new disease.

    You can’t have a situation where it takes 12 years to develop a vaccine (as it does now if routine was followed) – and then you think it’s great if you cut it down to a year and a few months.

    This whole way we have now of regulating of medical innovation has got to stop. Even though there are some risks. The risks of being stupid. But all this proof requirmets is being stupid on purpose. Yes it can enable a few people to lie. This can be worked through.

    A set of rules is no substitute for judgement. Just check and double check and question and question go over and over it again. and be prepared to change your mind three times a week. And watch out for pitfalls.

    Things went much faster in the 1885-1960 period.

    Sammy Finkelman (4eddd7)

  211. 212. . Dustin (928d9a) — 4/5/2020 @ 11:11 am

    A pandemic has been widely predicted for the past five years,

    And longer. But it was the flu. And it was not really “predicted” though.

    They did that more in the 1960s. And finally they had their new flu in 1976. But it was quickly wiped put. The vaccine (against anon existent version of the flu) was somewhat of a disaster They also had problems in 2009-2010.

    You can’t predict these things. They are black swans. Or, if you can, in a general way that maybe something will happen like an earthquake or a hurricane can happen, you can’t predict what it will be. You can only say that something can happen. Ebola. Sars 2 or 3.

    and I think we could have done a better job, but this kind of problem simply does not fit well with the hyper partisan (and therefore minimal accountability) system of government. We’re seeing how states, senators, congressmen, governors, the president, a lot of them try to work together, but there are enough who can’t. It’s pretty hard for a state to work with the feds when all their precious medical supplies are taken by FEMA, and the vice president won’t return your calls if you don’t praise the presidential administration.

    Mitt Romney was right about Trump. He’s been on both sides of all issues so I guess I understand why he can see things more clearly than more conventional Republicans.

    Sammy Finkelman (4eddd7)

  212. and I think we could have done a better job, but this kind of problem simply does not fit well with the hyper partisan

    Preparedness doesn’t work well when you are just making wild guesses, and that;s all it was..

    the vice president won’t return your calls if you don’t praise the presidential administration.

    I don;t kow about that but Trump was far more ready to send supplies to Florida, witha Republican governor he likes than to New York. And he almost needed to be thanked in advance.

    Mitt Romney was right about Trump. He’s been on both sides of all issues so I guess I understand why he can see things more clearly than more conventional Republicans.

    Trump though is somewhat set in may important issues now.

    Sammy Finkelman (4eddd7)

  213. 160. Dana (4fb37f) — 4/4/2020 @ 6:09 pm

    if they are considered more vulnerable because of their age, or, because of their age, they are able to fight it off better?

    They’re able to fight it off better because of awder variety of antibodiess tried, but not at six months. Four years old maybe.

    Below six months they only have their mother’s antibodies plus maybe what they from mmother throuh breast milk. I think. No point in vaccinating babies under 6 months. But you coud check this ot

    Sammy Finkelman (4eddd7)

  214. @181 Thanks, mg. That was very kind of you. And you’re right, my mother is one heck of a lady, the best. Principal owner and primary broker of the largest, most successful independent real estate corporation in South Texas, she’s one of the most respected brokers in the state and one of the most successful businesswomen. Not bad for a Texas country girl who never went to college a day in her life. Maybe one day I’ll tell her story. It’s inspirational, but you probably won’t believe it, because of some of the characters involved.

    Anyway, I keep saying this and no one wants to listen. The most accurate barometer for the health of the economy is the real estate market. Most people, we’re talking over 80%, measure their net worth by the value of their home. When housing prices go down, everyone suffers. Not just realtors, who have to depend on lesser commissions due to falling sales prices, everyone, because their financial future is in decline.

    I got into real estate in 2003. Didn’t want to, never really wanted to, I was perfectly happy being a teacher. Good pay with benefits, summer vacations, I could travel. I had big plans in the summer of 2001–summer school at Oxford in England the next year, then return to UT and complete my PhD, and the world would be mine. I have a lifetime teaching certificate valid in 38 states and 14 foreign countries, could have gone anywhere. (Do you have any idea how much they pay English teachers in Japan? $90,000/year plus free housing with a maid. I’ll take that in a heartbeat.)

    But all my plans fell apart when my father fell ill with cancer. He didn’t really have lung cancer, but rather cancer in the muscle wall around his lungs, which is inoperable. It was horrible. In and out of intensive care, on and off a respirator, bedridden when he was home, he suffered terribly for two long years, contracted pneumonia, had to undergo intensive chemotherapy. It was painful to watch.

    I had to do something, but honestly there wasn’t much I could do. I had no idea how long this would continue, but I had to do something. So I resigned my teaching positions, high school and college, and decided to go into real estate to help my mother. When I told my father, he said, “You’re going to own your own business, son!” That was the last thing he ever said to me, and it was like what he was hanging on to hear. Next day he was back in the hospital, on a respirator, and three weeks later he was dead.

    It took a couple of months for me to get my license, because I had to drive to Harlingen every day for mandatory coursework and testing. Couldn’t do it on line back then, which would have taken a few weeks, but finally I became a licensed realtor and showed up ready to work. My mother had been grieving, of course, for about a month, but had found her second wind, and now she had a slave, me.

    Hey, responsibilities of a first-born son. I will do whatever I have to do to help her, support her and take care of her. I made that promise to my father on his deathbed, and that is a promise you do not break.

    Late 2003, early 2004, I got into real estate right when the bubble was starting to expand. And it was all orchestrated by government. The Community Reinvestment Act, low interest rates, banks forced, under threat of IRS audit, to lower lending standards, collateralized debt obligations sold to unwitting investors, it was a farce and a disaster.

    It was a financial bubble that manifested itself in real estate. And it was insane. You have no idea. We were getting 15-20 assignments a month, spread out over several cities, covering hundreds of miles. We were listing and selling 120 houses a year (the average realtor nationwide will list and sell 6 houses a year, if that gives you a clue). There’s no way one person could handle that kind of volume. But my mother is the Queen of Real Estate, and she had me.

    You go East, and I’ll go West, she would say. Foreclosures are on the first Tuesday of every month. Occupancy has to be reported within 24 hours. That’s a lot of work. First, you have to determine exactly where the property is. Borrower’s name, street name, street number are essentially meaningless. The property may be listed in the county records under another name, the wife for example, and cities change street names and address numbers all the time. I need the exact legal address of the property–subdivision, lot and block number–and sometimes that is hard to figure out. The last thing I want to do is deliver a foreclosure and eviction notice to the wrong house.

    These things take time, diligent research. Just verifying the property is one thing, driving to it and determining occupancy is another. Then there’s the rekeying to secure the house, the inspection, contractor’s bids for any necessary repairs, a comparative market analysis, as is or with repairs. Then there’s the listing, the marketing and advertising, all of which costs money.

    It’s a difficult job. And there is a reason why over 80% of realtors drop out within two years of getting their licenses. They can’t afford to stay in the business. It’s brutal and unforgiving.

    I’ve long said that this economy was headed for a decline. The stock market and more importantly the real estate market was way overvalued. A downturn was inevitable. That which is unstainable cannot be sustained. I always knew there was going to be a market correction. I did not anticipate this pandemic, but I realize it will only further depress the economy and lower housing values.

    We’re about to get hit with a very stark reality. Home values are going to plummet, and millions are going to lose their equity. There’s no easy way to put it. We’re heading into a deep recession, perhaps a greater depression. Home owners will pay the price.

    Gawain's Ghost (b25cd1)

  215. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/transcript-scott-gottlieb-discusses-coronavirus-on-face-the-nation-april-5-2020

    ..A lot of young people are having bad outcomes, are intubated right now in the ICUs, with no comorbidities, no otherwise- no risk factors that would predict a bad outcome. There’s pregnant women intubated and in hospitals right now. We need to understand that. There’s been no publication, serious publication, by the CDC of the collective clinical experience in this United States- in the United States right now. So doctors are making decisions based on anecdote and their own clinical experiences. There’s really no excuse for that right now. We need to start getting literature out right away to inform providers on what’s working and what’s not. You heard the hospital chief there say about 80- 70 to 80 percent [he said 20% survive – SF] of people who get intubated succumb to their infection. That’s what I’m hearing from other hospitals. Doctors are now experimenting with more fluids. They’re experimenting with high-flow oxygen. They’re experimenting by putting patients in the prone position, meaning laying them on their stomach rather than on their backs when they’re intubated. This is stuff that doctors are figuring out from their own clinical experience, but really what we should have is literature published by the CDC that delineates what’s working and what’s not so doctors–

    MARGARET BRENNAN: Yeah.

    DR. GOTTLIEB: –can take a more systematic, data-driven approach to these things….We’re not going to see a V-shaped recovery or a quick snapback absent the ability to get a highly effective drug in the hands of doctors that can mitigate the risk, either used as a prophylaxis to prevent infection in people who get exposed to this virus or treat people who get the virus and are- are likely at a high risk of a bad outcome. We can have that kind of drug by the summer and certainly by the fall. I don’t see the kind of deliberate, industrial approach, all hands on deck approach, to trying to get that kind of therapeutic. And there are things that are promising right now that could be brought forward more quickly… But what we also need is a drug that could be used either as a preventative tool, a prophylaxis, as a bridge to a vaccine or a treatment for people who are likely to have a bad outcome with this virus. There are about four or five drugs that I would say are in advanced stages of development that could be available by this summer. We need to place significant bets on each of those drugs and try to pull them through more quickly. This is a time for placing bets. This is a time for an industrial approach to this. It’s not happening right now. I think it needs to happen. There’s still time, but we need to recognize how important that is….

    Sammy Finkelman (4eddd7)

  216. More – ad very important:

    From Dr. Scott Gottlieb on “Face the Nation,” April 5, 2020:

    ..The- the strategy that looks the most promising are these antibody-based drugs where you basically develop an antibody that can directly target the viruses. Four experienced companies working on this. There’s every reason to believe this strategy should work. It’s worked in other settings of viruses. We need to start pulling those through more quickly. And there’s a couple of antiviral drugs that directly target the virus and block its replication that look effective and maybe used early in the course of the disease will be effective. Nothing’s a home run here, but we don’t need a home run. What we need is a better toolbox, a good medicine cabinet coupled with- with very aggressive surveillance. That could be enough to really change the contours of the risk in the fall and allow people to feel comfortable going back out again.

    So Simon Jester, there’s you’re answer.

    Yes, they can develop artificial antibodies and no they won’t.

    Unless somebody starts really screaming and saying we don’t evidence now. We must bet. It’s a good bet.

    If Trump were Trumpier, maybe. But he’s afraid.

    Maybe in some other country.

    Georges Clemenceau: “War is too important to be left to the generals”

    And medicine is too important to be left to the doctors and the scientists alone.

    Sammy Finkelman (4eddd7)

  217. Or at kleast to the regulators, It has been known for decades (think of the AIDS crisis in the 1980s) that theur whol approach is wrong.

    Not making circa 1960 mistakes is not a be all and end all.

    Sammy Finkelman (4eddd7)

  218. ‘In a rare address to the nation, Queen Elizabeth II has exhorted Britons to rise to the challenge of the coronavirus pandemic, drawing on wisdom from her decades as Britain’s head of state to urge discipline and resolve in a time of crisis. The 93-year-old monarch acknowledged the suffering that many families have experienced because of the COVID-19 crisis, which has infected more than 42,000 people in the UK and killed at least 4313. She sought to lift spirits and offer hope to the country in its hour of need.

    “I am speaking to you at what I know is an increasingly challenging time,” she said, “A time of disruption in the life of our country; a disruption that has brought grief to some, financial difficulties to many and enormous changes to the daily lives of us all… I hope in the years to come everyone will be able to take pride in how they responded to this challenge,” she said. “Those who come after us will say that the Britons of this generation were as strong as any… That the attributes of self-discipline, of quiet, good-humoured resolve, and of fellow feeling still characterize this country,” she said.

    The Queen lauded Britain’s beloved National Health Service and others in essential services, together with around 750,000 people who volunteered to help the vulnerable.’ -source,ENews,BBC

    [Here’s the full speech: Her Majesty The Queen addresses the UK and the Commonwealth in a special broadcast recorded at Windsor Castle. pic.twitter.com/HjO1uiV1Tm — The Royal Family (@RoyalFamily) April 5, 2020]

    Attagirl, Liz.

    That’s how it’s done. Are you listening Donald?

    “You know, it really doesn`t matter what the media write as long as you`ve got a young and beautiful piece of ass.”- Donald Trump

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  219. 219… location, location, location…

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  220. That’s how it’s done. Are you listening Donald?

    Donald only listens to one foreign head of state. You can tell by how he has attempted to emulate Putin’s loyalty system. Donald’s style is consistent with a lifetime of contempt for America and our people, of insulating himself from the ‘losers’ who have to work for a living, and of fear of making a decision because that’s a risk. Queen Elizabeth’s is consistent with her lifetime of seeing good people overcome tough times, and of risks being a way to rewards.

    And longer. But it was the flu. And it was not really “predicted” though.

    No, it was actually right on the money, a SARS pandemic. Our political system, like our economic one, is based on how you’re doing right now. If the next guy does poorly in the next quarter or office term, as long as it’s not on your watch, that’s cool. You can see this by how Trump compares himself to Obama or Bush economically. It’s an irrational gamble to invest resources today in something that might save the next guy’s bacon, if you don’t really care about the next guy. Our political system utterly depends on leaders actually caring about this country, and more and more they don’t.

    Dustin (928d9a)

  221. Georges Clemenceau: “War is too important to be left to the generals”

    And medicine is too important to be left to the doctors and the scientists alone.

    Here, here. As I posted a while ago, there is a place for experts and expertise, but ultimately what you do is a judgment call.

    Bored Lawyer (56c962)

  222. Scientists are looking at both monoclonal antibody treatments and plasma containing antibodies from Covid-19 survivors, Sammy. I hope you are feeling better.

    DRJ (15874d)

  223. On a different tangent

    Someone posted on my music forum, that in lieu of a surgical or allergy mask, they are using an eye mask (of the sort designed to help people go to sleep despite the light being on). Use one ear loop around the skull, let the other hang down, position it to coverthe nose and mouth, voila!

    Since I have no bandannas or masks, I dug into the closet and found one that was a relic of my trip to the UK circa 1995. Tried it out this morning, it does seem to work. So for the foreseeable future, I will be advertising Laker Airways whenever I go to the grocery store.

    Kishnevi (cd9bd1)

  224. You can see this by how Trump compares himself to Obama or Bush economically. It’s an irrational gamble to invest resources today in something that might save the next guy’s bacon, if you don’t really care about the next guy. Our political system utterly depends on leaders actually caring about this country, and more and more they don’t.

    You can trace the lack of resupply of the Strategic National Stockpile from the Swine flu directly to the Tea Party movement and the sequestration in the Budget Control Act of 2011. It was a compromise that neither the administration or McConnell wanted. the McConnell-Reid “Plan B” was what they could get through the Tea Party contingent in the house, that was the beginning of the end for Boehner, he just didn’t want to deal with them after that and he checked out.

    So after being built up between 98 and 2009, extra money was needed to refill it, not only was extra money not budgeted, it was cut by 10%, and then sequestration cut it further. In reality, it wasn’t until Trump came into office that the budget was increased. Take a wild guess on what the additional budget was NOT spent on, a wild, crazy, guess. You get 3, nah, 1.

    Colonel Klink (Ret) (305827)

  225. Here’s a truism, all models are wrong, some are predictive. There’s a saying credited to George Box, but is predated by almost 50 years from Walter Shewhart.

    No model can ever be theoretically attainable that will completely and uniquely characterize the indefinitely expansible concept of a state of statistical control. What is perhaps even more important, on the basis of a finite portion of the sequence [X1, X2, X3, …]—and we can never have more than a finite portion—we can not reasonably hope to construct a model that will represent exactly any specific characteristic of a particular state of control even though such a state actually exists. Here the situation is much like that in physical science where we find a model of a molecule; any model is always an incomplete though useful picture of the conceived physical thing called a molecule.

    Box’s is shorter at least.

    Since all models are wrong the scientist must be alert to what is importantly wrong. It is inappropriate to be concerned about mice when there are tigers abroad.

    Colonel Klink (Ret) (305827)

  226. Too bad that Rush…along with pretty much the entire cohort he leads…lost all credibility some time back when he nippled up to Duh Donald.

    Ragspierre (d9bec9)

  227. Meanwhile in Col. Klink’s bailiwick: http://youtu.be/shvNAq6jv9g

    Backstory.

    urbanleftbehind (de3d1f)

  228. Yeah, saw that on the news yesterday, at least they arrested the turd. He’s Gryph’s hero, freedom, liberty, and stuff.

    Colonel Klink (Ret) (305827)

  229. Too bad that Rush…along with pretty much the entire cohort he leads…lost all credibility some time back when he nippled up to Duh Donald.

    Ragspierre (d9bec9) — 4/5/2020 @ 1:46 pm

    But he got a medal from a politician he praised a lot. What a disgrace.

    Dustin (928d9a)

  230. Dad cooks dinner, uses deer meat and doesn’t tell the kids.
    Son Billy asks, “what kind of meat is this?”
    Dad gives them a clue… “It’s what your mother calls me”
    Daughter yells “OMG, Billy, it’s an asshole, don’t eat it!”

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  231. New York Times says use water, not toilet paper….

    Bronx Zoo Tigers testing positive for virus…..

    Boris Johnson admitted to hospital w serious symptoms……

    Joe Biden now saying travel restrictions might be a good idea…….

    Can’t wait for tomorrow
    _

    harkin (b64479)

  232. Disclaimer: These are obviously the words of one who has not watched TV, listened to the radio, read the newspaper. I obtain my current events, parochially, from the internet.

    The words “it will continue to get worse before it gets better” do not adequately capture the dire situation. How were snowflakes brought to anxiety over cow-farts* and such? Would it serve us well if the MSM nightly broadcast the scenes from hospitals, clinics, and morgues? Are there any journalists doing an expose’ on ICUs and covid-19? I know these was a report on the search for a vaccine.

    Sure, privacy must be respected, HIPAA and all that, but give us something – make it visceral. Are there no ratings to be had in that? I don’t hear about this sort of thing on any sites.

    * “Cow farts” is my chosen euphemism for climate changeglobal warminganthropomorphic…..

    felipe (023cc9)

  233. CVG being de-hubbed by Delta a decade ago saved that mook’s life.

    urbanleftbehind (de3d1f)

  234. Rich Galen: As of 4 PM on Sunday, April 5 there have been 332,283 cases of COVID-19 in the United States leading to 9,499 deaths (according to worldometers.info).

    Sammy Finkelman (4eddd7)

  235. New York Times had a front page story this morning about how many people from China Trump let into United States on direct flighs from China in January and even Feb. (complait seems to be he looked only at permanent residence/citizenship/rights and waited too long. And not how long and when and where they were in China. And didn’t do enough to contain it. (although with so many travelers not too many had to be contagious. Idea is asymptomatic people, and no idea how this is transmited))

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/04/us/coronavirus-china-travel-restrictions.html

    430,000 People Have Traveled From China to U.S. Since Coronavirus Surfaced

    There were 1,300 direct flights to 17 cities before President Trump’s travel restrictions. Since then, nearly 40,000 Americans and other authorized travelers have made the trip, some this past week and many with spotty screening….

    ///The bulk of the passengers, who were of multiple nationalities, arrived in January, at airports in Los Angeles, San Francisco, New York, Chicago, Seattle, Newark and Detroit. Thousands of them flew directly from Wuhan, the center of the coronavirus outbreak, as American public health officials were only beginning to assess the risks to the United States.

    Flights continued this past week, the data show, with passengers traveling from Beijing to Los Angeles, San Francisco and New York, under rules that exempt Americans and some others from the clampdown that took effect on Feb. 2. In all, 279 flights from China have arrived in the United States since then, and screening procedures have been uneven, interviews show.

    Mr. Trump has repeatedly suggested that his travel measures impeded the virus’s spread in the United States. “I do think we were very early, but I also think that we were very smart, because we stopped China,” he said at a briefing on Tuesday, adding, “That was probably the biggest decision we made so far.” Last month, he said, “We’re the ones that kept China out of here.”

    But the analysis of the flight and other data by The New York Times shows the travel measures, however effective, may have come too late to have “kept China out,” particularly in light of recent statements from health officials that as many as 25 percent of people infected with the virus may never show symptoms. Many infectious-disease experts suspect that the virus had been spreading undetected for weeks after the first American case was confirmed, in Washington State, on Jan. 20, and that it had continued to be introduced. In fact, no one knows when the virus first arrived in the United States.

    During the first half of January, when Chinese officials were underplaying the severity of the outbreak, no travelers from China were screened for potential exposure to the virus. Health screening began in mid-January, but only for a number of travelers who had been in Wuhan and only at the airports in Los Angeles, San Francisco and New York. By that time, about 4,000 people had already entered the United States directly from Wuhan, according to VariFlight, an aviation data company based in China. The measures were expanded to all passengers from China two weeks later…..

    Trump administration officials have also said they received significant pushback about imposing the restrictions even when they did. At the time, the World Health Organization was not recommending travel restrictions, Chinese officials rebuffed them and some scientists questioned whether curtailing travel would do any good. Some Democrats in Congress said they could lead to discrimination…

    …In interviews, multiple travelers who arrived after the screening was expanded said they received only passing scrutiny, with minimal follow-up.

    “I was surprised at how lax the whole process was,” said Andrew Wu, 31, who landed at Los Angeles International Airport on a flight from Beijing on March 10. “The guy I spoke to read down a list of questions, and he didn’t seem interested in checking out anything.”

    Sabrina Fitch, 23, flew from China to Kennedy International Airport in New York on March 23. She and the 40 or so other passengers had their temperature taken twice while en route and were required to fill out forms about their travels and health, she said.

    “Besides looking at our passports, they didn’t question us like we normally are questioned,” said Ms. Fitch, who had been teaching English in China. “So it was kind of weird, because everyone expected the opposite, where you get a lot of questions. But once we filled out the little health form, no one really cared.”

    Sammy Finkelman (4eddd7)

  236. Another traveler, Chandler Jurinka, said his experience on Feb. 29 had an even more haphazard feel. He flew from Beijing to Seattle, with stops in Tokyo and Vancouver.

    At the Seattle-Tacoma airport, he said, an immigration officer went through his documents and asked questions unrelated to the virus about his job and life in China. At no point did anyone take his temperature, he said.

    “He hands me my passport and forms and says, ‘Oh, by the way, you haven’t been to Wuhan, have you?’” Mr. Jurinka said. “And then he says, ‘You don’t have a fever, right?’”

    Like others, he left the airport with a card that recommended two weeks of self-quarantine and a promise that someone would call to check up on him. He said he never got a call.

    Other travelers also said the follow-up from local health departments was hit-or-miss. Some received only emails or texts.

    Sammy Finkelman (4eddd7)

  237. According to Italian scientists, according to the New York Times there are two types of antibodies that show up in a coronavirus case – one when the infection is active, and one when the infection is over. (no attempt is made to explain this in the article)

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/04/world/europe/italy-coronavirus-antibodies.html

    Scientists in Italy said the virus produces two types of antibodies, a first that usually appears within five to six days after exposure to the virus, and which fades after 20 days. As a person heals, that antibody, which indirectly shows contagion, is slowly replaced by another antibody, which indirectly shows that a person has had the virus.

    When only the second antibody is detected, it means the person is probably no longer infected.

    Sammy Finkelman (4eddd7)

  238. ROT IN HELL, Ira Einhorn.
    Known as the founder of Earth Day, he became infamous when he murdered his girlfriend and then went on the run for 23 years to avoid prison.

    Icy (6abb50)

  239. Dónde está Daniel Ortega?

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  240. el pinch* pendejo está muerto.

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  241. Here it is Sunday, that wasn’t nice. Dana… if you would, please delete 248?

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  242. In Wisconsin, Republicans and the Democratic Governor couldn’t agree on what day or whether to postpone the Wisconsin primary, so it’s on for this Tuesday

    From Politico (no link)

    Despite a last-minute maneuver from the governor, a stay-at-home order, a massive shortage of poll workers and pleas from mayors across the state to postpone the primary amid one of the worst public health crises in U.S. history, Tuesday’s election is on track to go on.

    In an extraordinary snub on Saturday, Wisconsin’s Republican-led Legislature shrugged its shoulders at an eleventh-hour call from Gov. Tony Evers to halt in-person voting, gaveling in and out of a special session in seconds without taking action.

    A source close to the governor told POLITICO on Saturday that Evers had no plans to take further action in an attempt to stop the election, despite his suggestion on Friday that he might explore other options….

    …“Republicans in the Legislature are playing politics with public safety and ignoring the urgency of this public health crisis. It’s wrong. No one should have to choose between their health and their right to vote,” Evers said in a statement. “This, however, is an easy decision. It’s time for every Republican legislator to do their jobs and take a vote on this commonsense proposal to extend the election date so everyone can vote safely from home. I urge every Wisconsinite to contact their legislators and demand a vote.”

    Republicans seemed unmoved. The Wisconsin GOP has signaled it has no intention to relent on the issue and, in fact, Republicans on Saturday went further, asking the U.S. Supreme Court to block a lower court ruling that expanded absentee balloting in the state.

    Some are trying to get public health officials to call offf the election.

    Sammy Finkelman (4eddd7)

  243. Daniel Ortega is probably personally socially isolating but he’s ignoring the epidemic. AMLO in Mexico and President Jair Bolsonaro are also trying to ignore it. AMLO just doesn’t want to spend money and wants to negotiate with the el Chapo cartel. AMLO claims there is no more corruption in Mexico.

    Bolsonaro is a right winger and is being forced by his generals (and Trump?) to take it somewhat seriously.

    Sammy Finkelman (4eddd7)

  244. The LatAms I think are banking on a sort of resistance proffered by the old BGC tuberculosis vaccine aka the shoulder bump: http://www.news-medical.net/news/20200329/Will-old-faithful-tuberculosis-BCG-vaccine-work-against-COVID.aspx

    urbanleftbehind (de3d1f)

  245. BCG is just a general long term boost to the immune system and maybe would not even include this.

    Now that’s something without much logic and there someone can say no studies but the real problem is no logic.

    Sammy Finkelman (4eddd7)

  246. Newborn baby (one day old) dies of coronavirus in Baton Rouge:

    Seven more people have died from coronavirus in East Baton Rouge — including a newborn baby, the parish coroner’s office announced Monday morning.

    The baby’s mother was admitted to the hospital with coronavirus symptoms last week and then gave birth on Sunday. The baby girl died Monday morning, East Baton Rouge Coroner Dr. Beau Clark said in a news release.

    Death investigators determined the child’s death was due to coronavirus. Officials said her mother remains hospitalized but haven’t provided the woman’s condition.

    DRJ (15874d)

  247. Only if you think protecting T-rump’s fat lying ass is a priority.

    And obviously you DO.

    Ragspierre (d9bec9)


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