Patterico's Pontifications

4/2/2020

6.6 Million People Filed New Unemployment Claims Last Week

Filed under: General — Patterico @ 8:20 am



It’s no real surprise if you have been paying attention, of course, but it’s still a stunning number — especially when you realize it will continue like this, week after week.

The last three weeks have marked one of the most devastating periods in history for the American job market, as first-time claims for unemployment benefits have surged more than 3,000% since early March.

Businesses continue to lay off and furlough workers amid the coronavirus outbreak.

6.6 million US workers filed for their first week of unemployment benefits in the week ending March 28 — a new historic high.

Meanwhile, I’m watching the deaths in the U.S. double reliably every four days or so, and I’m thinking we could hit 100,000 deaths this month very easily. I read a passage like this from Allahpundit:

If you believe the IHME projections, which are similar to the White House’s own model, we won’t begin to flatten out in this metric for several more weeks. Peak deaths are expected on April 16, when we’re expected to hit … 2,600 in a day. That’s up from yesterday, when the projection was on the order of 2,200; the number of total deaths expected before August 1 is also up substantially in the IHME model, from around 83,000 yesterday to 93,000 today. Things have turned grimmer in the past 24 hours than they were. And they were plenty grim yesterday.

And I think: it’s weird when I’m more pessimistic than Allahpundit. 2,600 deaths a day by April 16? Why not April 10? I can’t find a good reason why not.

I’ll be thrilled to be wrong.

32 Responses to “6.6 Million People Filed New Unemployment Claims Last Week”

  1. If only we had unlimited testing available. Maybe I missed it, but I have heard nobody talk about when and if that will actually be a reality. Quick and available testing would let us know who has it and then, of course, we could deal with it much more effectively. Until then, how do people get back to work?

    Are these tests that hard to mass produce? What about the antibody tests?

    noel (4d3313)

  2. An M.D. explains how covid-19 kills you, and let’s the spring=breakers have it.

    felipe (023cc9)

  3. I wonder why “active” cases are still rarely stated. Many in the media are giving total “positive” cases and not focussing on today’s active cases. For instance, I would like to know how areas like Seattle are doing and you can’t compare them to others by looking at total cases over the last six weeks. You need to know how many cases they still have today.

    Soon, the active cases will be what matters to most of us and not what happened a month or two ago.

    noel (4d3313)

  4. 3. A full one-third of positive cases are recovered in my home state. But every time the number of recoveries is mentioned, it’s mentioned as an afterthought.

    Gryph (08c844)

  5. It would be interesting to know the survival rate for patients who are placed on ventilators.

    John B Boddie (286277)

  6. Speaking of mass production:

    Julio Rosas
    @Julio_Rosas11
    ·
    Beggars can be choosers? Gun manufacturer Remington offered Gov. Cuomo to use their 1 million square feet of space at their NY plant to help make/distribute medical PPE and ventilators on March 23. Remington told me Cuomo has yet accept their help.

    _

    harkin (b64479)

  7. If they want to make medical PPE and ventilators, why do they need Cuomo’s permission?

    Dave (1bb933)

  8. You mean like…

    USA recovered 10,365

    Colonel Klink (Ret) (305827)

  9. This is also unprecedented in that the unemployment is ordered by government diktat. If you force most businesses to shut down, and you offer 150% unemployment benefits to furloughed hourly workers, it is almost unimaginable the speed at which furloughs will happen.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  10. Scenario: You own a local hardware store. You have 8 employees, each making $20/hour. You are ordered to close and it looks like you’ll be closed for a couple of months. Your premises rent, insurance, utilities and contracted deliveries do not stop, but your income does.

    You find out that, if you furlough your workers, they get $25/hour from the state and feds combined, without payroll taxes taken out.

    Question: Do you continue to pay them $20/hour for no work, or do you furlough them for a win-win?

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  11. Oh, and the UI people won’t count this against you at premium time.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  12. The real question is why it’s ONLY 6.6 million.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  13. This is also unprecedented in that the unemployment is ordered by government diktat. If you force most businesses to shut down, and you offer 150% unemployment benefits to furloughed hourly workers, it is almost unimaginable the speed at which furloughs will happen.

    You’re assertion is counterfactual, the business isn’t getting the money. With the PPP, they may have some relief, if they don’t lay off people. It may behoove the the employer to do layoffs if they have to close since they’re not essential, just to be helpful to their employees.

    Colonel Klink (Ret) (305827)

  14. Colonel Klink (Ret) (305827) — 4/2/2020 @ 2:30 pm

    If Kevin said the business is getting the money, I didn’t see him say so.

    I will note that at least in my area, customers disappeared rapidly even before government intervened. In part, there were no tourists in a tourist dependent economy, no cruise ship passengers coming or going to their ship because the cruise lines cancelled all the cruises, no locals either because of fear of catching the virus or fear of losing their own job. So layoffs of some kind were inevitable. When you see the figure next week for this week’s claims, I will be one of them (temporarily furloughed).
    BTW, UI payments may not deduct Medicare and Social Security, but do withold income tax (unless you decide to send in the payments yourself).

    Kishnevi (385fa4)

  15. BTW, those interested in stocks might want to bear in mind that all the cruise ships being shown in the news as having COVID19 cases are all owned by Carnival Corporation: Holland America, Princess, Costa are all Carnival brands, as is Cunard and a couple of others. (There may be ships I haven’t heard of that have virus cases.) Carnival will have to do a lot of cleaning up after this is all over, in more than one sense of the phrase.

    Kishnevi (385fa4)

  16. Not sure this belongs here, but, see the following article.

    By way of background, Purim is a one-day Jewish holiday, takes place one month before Passover. This year it fell out on March 9. The article interviews a manager of a band that held a concert that day, 300 people attended.

    ‘I Would Have Canceled’: 3 Weeks After Purim Celebrations, Coronavirus Is Hitting Jewish Communities Hard

    So Ratzenberg called the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to ask for guidance. He also called a local rabbi.

    Ratzenberg told the Jewish Telegraphic Agency that both gave him the go-ahead. The band also wanted to play. So the show went on — with plenty of hand sanitizer available.

    https://vosizneias.com/2020/04/02/i-would-have-canceled-3-weeks-after-purim-celebrations-coronavirus-is-hitting-jewish-communities-hard/

    So the CDC told him to go ahead with the concert in March.

    Bored Lawyer (56c962)

  17. If Kevin said the business is getting the money, I didn’t see him say so.

    This is also unprecedented in that the unemployment is ordered by government diktat. If you force most businesses to shut down, and you offer 150% unemployment benefits to furloughed hourly workers, it is almost unimaginable the speed at which furloughs will happen.

    Furloughs aren’t driven by UI benefits, essential services may drive furloughs. PPP also drives non-furloughs. Different drivers impact different outcomes. If the employer wants a PPP loan, they can’t furlough. If they furlough, the business gets not PPP benefits. UI is for the employees, PPP is for employers.

    Colonel Klink (Ret) (305827)

  18. Kevin was talking about government ordered shutdowns. You are talking about PPP, he’s not.

    I did see a post on my Facebook stream a couple of days ago regarding a restaurant owner who said the paperwork to get those PPP grants/loans was so complicated, he wasn’t going to bother applying for one.

    Kishnevi (385fa4)

  19. If you are non-essential business, you are specifically eligible for the PPP if you don’t lay off.

    I did see a post on my Facebook stream a couple of days ago regarding a restaurant owner who said the paperwork to get those PPP grants/loans was so complicated, he wasn’t going to bother applying for one.

    If he’s unable to fill out a basic SBA loan form, it’s not a business, it’s a hobby and he can’t be bothered.

    Colonel Klink (Ret) (305827)

  20. Well this isn’t helpful:

    Week of April 13 is earliest Americans will see direct deposit relief payments from the government; paper checks could take as long as 20 weeks — nearly 5 months — for some Americans

    Five months?? Rents are due monthly, groceries bought weekly, etc., etc. Also, I’d like to see the demographics of direct deposit v. paper checks. The older people I know dont have direct deposit because they’ve always used a paper bank deposit and that’s what they’ve been comfortable with.

    Dana (4fb37f)

  21. The latest to join the ranks of the unemployed is that carrier captain who wrote a letter pleading for the lives of his crew:

    Carrier Commanding Officer Fired Over Plea for Resources that Went Public

    Maybe he’d executed a POW on the operating table, or sniped some young girls in the street, Cadet Bonespurs would have gone to bat for him…

    Dave (1bb933)

  22. And that doesn’t include people who weren’t able to or who didn’t know they were eligible.

    The commander pf the USS Theodore Roosevelt is probably all right – whether he should have been relieved of command is another story. Not clear why.

    Sammy Finkelman (337057)

  23. The kind of leaders with the skills, experience, and brains to command a US carrier (and group usually) are rare. Some admirals are REP (rear echelon pukes) who’ve never done much more than push paper. Those seem plentiful.

    I really hope that our national defense was not diminished because of petty T-rumpish pique.

    Ragspierre (d9bec9)

  24. Sorry, guys, I’m on the other side of this Flag Captain person. He reminds of Trump, actually.

    It was his job to keep his ship shipshape and Bristol fashion and he let coronavirus aboard. He was going to be fired for it and he knew it. So he sent out a “Baby Trump letter” to all and sundry – 30 people, really, when he had the admiral of the fleet right on his ship? — to shape the narrative and make himself look like a hero and a martyr, and not the incompetent that he is.

    nk (1d9030)

  25. Monthly national unemployment rate statistics are always for the week which includes the 12th of the month.

    For March, 2020, this was Thursday March 12 – when this shutdown was just barely getting started, just after Purim.

    Sammy Finkelman (337057)

  26. Dana (4fb37f) — 4/2/2020 @ 6:30 pm

    The older people I know dont have direct deposit because they’ve always used a paper bank deposit and that’s what they’ve been comfortable with.

    Federal government hasn’t sent paper checks for some time. It’s either direct deposit or a visa or Master debit card. States still send paper checks I think but that delays things.

    Money to be deposited in account last tax refund was sent to. Originally they wanted to require people on Soc Sec to file some tax return even if they mormally didn;’t – that was waived. In normal times simple not so now.

    Big problem: How this ends. They can slow the virus, But that;s baed on many peple quarantining. They haven;t fgured out how to end it. Antibody and virus tests can help. Antibody test will say who is safe from infections.

    Sammy Finkelman (337057)

  27. No, Sammy. The Federals don’t LIKE sending paper checks, but they do send them. They hector people to get direct deposit or a debit-like card. But they will send out paper checks.

    Ragspierre (d9bec9)

  28. Money to be deposited in account last tax refund was sent to.

    What about people who send in a check right around April 12th? [Like me. Last time I got a refund was three years ago, I think.]

    Kishnevi (86d06e)

  29. People who started getting SS benefits after either 2011 or 2013 (too lazy to check the precise date) have to choose between direct deposit and debit card. They are not offered the paper check option.

    Kishnevi (86d06e)

  30. They are not offered the paper check option.

    I got them for several months.

    Ragspierre (d9bec9)

  31. Money to be deposited in account last tax refund was sent to.

    Kishnevi (86d06e) — 4/3/2020 @ 8:35 am

    What about people who send in a check right around April 12th? [Like me. Last time I got a refund was three years ago, I think.]

    I don’t know exactly the way it works. It probably doesn;t have to be a refund. Could be paid from account. there must be some article somewhere that explains it.

    https://www.hrblock.com/coronavirus-tax-impact/calculator

    More than 90% of American adults qualify for a stimulus payment

    Whether you are employed full time or part time, a gig worker, unemployed, or retired, you are likely eligible for a stimulus check or direct deposit….

    The IRS will use your most current tax return to determine:

    • Your annual income for your stimulus payout amount [on;y matters if over $100,000 I think]
    • Your direct deposit information or mailing address

    If you’ve already filed your 2019 taxes, you’re all set.

    Haven’t filed your 2019 taxes? That’s okay. But, if your information has changed since your last tax return, now would be a good time to file so the IRS has your most current info.

    How will the IRS send me my stimulus check?

    The IRS plans to use the bank or financial account information listed on your most recent tax return or they will mail you a payment to your address on record if no account information is available.

    Sammy Finkelman (694340)

  32. The IRS will use the info on your recent tax return to send you your payment. So if you submitted your tax returns and asked for your refund to be deposited into your bank account, you’ll get your stimulus check that way. If you didn’t, then it’ll use the address you put on your tax return.

    https://assetbrief.com/resources/coronavirus-stimulus-calculator-g7r79xr

    Devin (436113)


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