Patterico's Pontifications

3/27/2020

Coronavirus Open Thread

Filed under: General — Dana @ 3:30 pm



[guest post by Dana]

Because everything is in such a state of flux, it’s difficult to stay focused on the subject of a post. Commenters seem to want to discuss any number of issues related to coronavirus – including, but not limited to: coronavirus aid package, bailouts, treatment and protocols, current trajectories of the virus throughout the nation and world, etc, etc. Here’s a fresh post to talk about it all.

–Dana

227 Responses to “Coronavirus Open Thread”

  1. Hello.

    Dana (4fb37f)

  2. That‘a funny, haiku.

    Dana (8bcc0b)

  3. And so it goes:

    Congress and President Trump put taxpayers on the hook for billions of dollars to United Airlines in exchange for keeping their work force intact at least through September 30.

    Immediately after the bill was signed, United announced upcoming layoffs—to begin after September 30.

    Dana (8bcc0b)

  4. Dr. Birx just explained that due to cultural differences and the wide variance of mitigations employed internationally, the models could not and should not have been expected to apply to USA. Funny…where was this obvious point when she and Fauci touted their science as the threats were outlined by them some weeks ago?

    For feces and giggles, check out how she tried to avoid accepting a signing pen at the ceremony earlier. She was right to do so and she lost that battle. :)

    Ed from SFV (950df5)

  5. Here’s a portion of Dr. Birx statement:

    I’m sure you have seen the recent report out of the U.K. about them adjusting completely their needs. This is really quite important. If you remember, that was the report that says there would be 500,000 deaths in the U.K. and 2.2 million deaths in the United States. They’ve adjusted that number in the U.K. to 20,000. Half a million to 20,000. We are looking at that in great detail to understand that adjustment.

    I’m going to say something that is a little bit complicated but do it in a way we can understand it together. In the model, either you have to have a large group of people who a-asymptomatic, who never presented for any test to have the kind of numbers predicted. To get to 60 million people infected, you have to have a large group of a-symptomatics. We have not seen an attack rate over 1 in 1,000. So either we are measuring the iceberg and underneath it, are a large group of people. So we are working hard to get the antibody test and figure out who these people are and do they exist. Or we have the transmission completely wrong.

    So these are the things we are looking at, because the predictions of the model don’t match the reality on the ground in China, South Korea or Italy. We are five times the size of Italy. If we were Italy and did all those divisions, Italy should have close to 400,000 deaths. They are not close to achieving that.

    Models are models. We are — there is enough data of the real experience with the coronavirus on the ground to really make these predictions much more sound. So when people start talking about 20% of a population getting infected, it’s very scary, but we don’t have data that matches that based on our experience.

    And the situation about ventilators. We are reassured in meeting with our colleagues in New York that there are still I.C.U. Beds remaining and still significant — over 1,000 or 2,000 ventilators that have not been utilized.

    Please for the reassurance of people around the world, to wake up this morning and look at people talking about creating DNR situations, Do Not Resuscitate situations for patients, there is no situation in the United States right now that warrants that kind of discussion. You can be thinking about it in the hospital. Certainly, hospitals talk about this on a daily basis, but to say that to the American people and make the implication that when they need a hospital bed it’s not going to be there or a ventilator, it’s not going to be there, we don’t have evidence of that.

    She concludes with saying, “There is no model right now — no reality on the ground where we can see that 60% to 70% of Americans are going to get infected in the next eight to 12 weeks.”

    Dana (4fb37f)

  6. She’s not the girl
    She’s not the girl
    The girl u want…

    https://twitter.com/varadmehta/status/1243607714321874944

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  7. No Democrats invited to signing ceremony for stimulus bill. So much for national unity.

    Also, Trump admitted that he told Pence not to call governors “who don’t treat you right”.

    When asked what more, specifically, he wanted governors to do, Trump said (three times):

    I want them to be appreciative.

    Dave (1bb933)

  8. Yet more confirmation who matters most to the President during a pandemic. He will never not be this way.

    Dana (4fb37f)

  9. The only thing worse than having to watch an oldtimer dancing like a teen is watching an out-of-touch oldtimer educator dancing like a teen…

    https://twitter.com/michale_price/status/1241940378275794944

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  10. He will never not be this way.

    Nearly an entire first term required to come to this understanding?

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  11. “Here’s a portion of Dr. Birx statement:”

    The author of the report has since come out with a clarification:

    I think it would be helpful if I cleared up some confusion that has emerged in recent days. Some have interpreted my evidence to a UK parliamentary committee as indicating we have substantially revised our assessments of the potential mortality impact of COVID-19.
    This is not the case. Indeed, if anything, our latest estimates suggest that the virus is slightly more transmissible than we previously thought. Our lethality estimates remain unchanged.
    My evidence to Parliament referred to the deaths we assess might occur in the UK in the presence of the very intensive social distancing and other public health interventions now in place.
    Without those controls, our assessment remains that the UK would see the scale of deaths reported in our study (namely, up to approximately 500 thousand).

    https://twitter.com/neil_ferguson/status/1243294815200124928

    The report is here
    https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

    Davethulhu (3857ea)

  12. Dave,

    Trump certainly targeted Inslee and Whitmer, but held his fire wth Cuomo – and even praised him.

    I totally agree with Trump that the Nationa Guard has done a phenomenal job in transforming the Javits Center in such a short time. What an amazing job they’ve done. There are good photos of the changes here.

    Dana (4fb37f)

  13. I feel bad for anybody who got in a wreck driving home from watching Infinity war and just woke up from their coma. That’s gotta be confusing.

    Dustin (928d9a)

  14. Biden on CNN: asked about possibly over manufacturing too many ventilators, Plagirists JoeyBee says, “That’s like saying in World War One we’re building too many land craft!”

    Yes, Joe, remember them doughboys storming the beaches of the Somme, the Marne and Verdun? And the gaffes just keep on coming.

    Plagiarist, unemployed, retired private citizen JoeyBee also seems to have been able to talk to a lot of busy working governors. Why? What leverage or influence can he exercise to address the current pandemic situation? About as much as Haiku– Oh. Right. None. 😉

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  15. “Mental health problems can develop in people very early.” – Joe Biden 3-27-2020

    This, from a guy who’s had brain surgery.

    … and Putin grinned

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  16. My fellow Americans,

    All we have to fear is being insufficiently appreciative of the Drumpfelschnitzel.

    nk (1d9030)

  17. Hey Sleepy Joe…too bad shes kind of ugly, not like mid-hot/crazy curve Gretchen:

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-27/rhode-island-police-to-hunt-down-new-yorkers-seeking-refuge

    urbanleftbehind (fde3a9)

  18. My fellow Americans,

    Ask not what your country can do for you, ask what your country can do for me.

    Dave (1bb933)

  19. These overly generous unemployment benefits are going to destroy the warehouse and service industries. Who is going to continue to work when they can sit at home and collect the same pay for the rest of the year without “risk?”

    NJRob (9fcb2b)

  20. Who is going to vote to send those mopes back to Washington without them (the expanded unemployment benefits)?

    nk (1d9030)

  21. In the “not only old people”, the first death in Miami Dade County was reported today: a 40 year old man of Cuban origin. His boyfriend said he had had no chronic or underlying medical conditions beyond possible hypertension

    Perspective:

    Florida has just under 3200 cases, 869 in Miami Dade, 631 in Broward, 230 in Palm Beach County. 10 people in Broward have died, 2 in Miami, 46 overall in the state. Hospitalized cases are now over 500. 6 of the Broward deaths came out of a single ALF.

    Kishnevi (bec396)

  22. a 40 year old man of Cuban origin. His boyfriend said he had had no chronic or underlying medical conditions beyond possible hypertension

    Really?

    nk (1d9030)

  23. What is ALF kishnevi?

    DRJ (15874d)

  24. And it seems Gov DeSantis has decided to put up roadblocks in the Panhandle to look for people coming from Louisiana so they can be quarantined for 2 weeks.

    Kishnevi (bec396)

  25. Hawaii is quarantining entering visitors for two weeks. That is much easier to do than trying to get people in the continental US.

    DRJ (15874d)

  26. nk: that’s what the local news broadcast said, in just about those exact words.
    DRJ: Assisted Living Facility.

    Kishnevi (bec396)

  27. Assisted living facility, DRJ.

    nk (1d9030)

  28. Jinx!

    nk (1d9030)

  29. Thank you both.

    DRJ (15874d)

  30. Noted nk, but think about it, that case could be illustrative of the west Mediterranean susceptibility theory… the vic might have been wholly Spaniard as opposed to “Yasiel Puig” and the mob laid a lot of seed in ol Havana before the Russian Navy got there.

    urbanleftbehind (fde3a9)

  31. urbanleftbehind (fde3a9) — 3/27/2020 @ 6:10 pm
    Huh, escape from New York.

    felipe (023cc9)

  32. And Louisiana…(see Kishnevi in other thread).

    urbanleftbehind (fde3a9)

  33. The governor of Rhode Island is working with lawyers to figure how they can prevent New Yorkers from invading the state as try to escape the massive outbreak in NYC.

    Dana (4fb37f)

  34. “ Abbott Laboratories is unveiling a coronavirus test that can tell if someone is infected in as little as 5 minutes, and is so small and portable it can be used in almost any health-care setting.

    The medical-device maker plans to supply 50,000 tests a day starting April 1, said John Frels, vice president of research and development at Abbott Diagnostics. The molecular test looks for fragments of the coronavirus genome, which can be detected in as little as five minutes when it’s present at high levels. A thorough search to definitively rule out an infection can take up to 13 minutes, he said.

    The U.S. has struggled to supply enough tests to detect the coronavirus, even as the outbreak threatens to overwhelm hospitals in New York, California, Washington and other regions. After initially restricting testing to high-risk people, and problems with a test designed by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, U.S. regulators have rushed out diagnostics made by the world’s leading commercial-testing companies.”

    Abbott Launches 5-Minute Covid-19 Test for Use Almost Anywhere

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-27/abbott-launches-5-minute-covid-19-test-for-use-almost-anywhere
    _

    I’m a bit leery of that that April 1 launch date.

    Sure hope this isn’t the sickest joke of all time.
    _

    harkin (b64479)

  35. I said yesterday that I was dealing with Covid-19 issues with an NGO I am a Trustee of. We have invoked a number of emergency powers and slashed budgets, furloughed employees, cancelled events and notified hotels and such that we were invoking Force Majeure to cancel contracts. Loads of fun. Not. Hopefully this can be done without attorneys and such.

    We’ve done all this via Zoom, or course. And this A.M. we were informed that one of our number (who had been somewhat ill yesterday, but managing) was now in hospital on a ventilator outside Chicago.

    I fukking hate this disease.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  36. The governor of Rhode Island is working with lawyers to figure how they can prevent New Yorkers from invading the state as try to escape the massive outbreak in NYC.

    Dig a trench and make it an actual island, then establish a 14-day quarantine to enter, like Hawaii.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  37. Had the member been feeling ill for longer than a day, Kevin?

    Dana (4fb37f)

  38. And it seems Gov DeSantis has decided to put up roadblocks in the Panhandle to look for people coming from Louisiana so they can be quarantined for 2 weeks.

    In Tom Clancy’s “Executive Orders” President Jack Ryan fought a biowarfare attack (Ebola) by shutting down air traffic and ordering all state borders sealed.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  39. These overly generous unemployment benefits are going to destroy the warehouse and service industries

    On the flip side — and I have recent experience with this, they make the decision to furlough workers trivially easy. After all, the employees are not getting hurt, assuming this blows over in a month or two — they’ll just have had a vacation on Uncle Sugar’s tab.

    I expect that when the lockdowns end, whenever that is, the extended benefits will disappear.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  40. The Ventilator:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0k0Oc1W81Nw

    Does Trump know the difference?
    Does Plagiarist JoeyBee?
    Do redneck conservatives?

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  41. The Rhode Island governor has ordered that everyone arriving in the state from NY has to self-quarantine for 14 days:

    Raimondo said Rhode Island State Police troopers will be posted at borders to pull over cars with New York plates and ask for contact information.

    National Guard members will be set up at train stations and bus stations to have travelers from New York check in.

    She said the information will solely be shared with the state’s health department for “aggressive” contact tracing going forward.

    The ACLU is warning about the constitutionality of such the directive.

    Dana (4fb37f)

  42. Had the member been feeling ill for longer than a day, Kevin?

    Yes, apparently. She said it had been going on for a few days, but that her appetite had returned and she felt a bit better on Thursday. Apparently not.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  43. Sure hope this isn’t the sickest joke of all time.
    _
    harkin (b64479) — 3/27/2020 @ 7:29 pm

    Pun intended?

    felipe (023cc9)

  44. She’s an African-American lady in her early 60s.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  45. Nationwide injunctions have been strangely absent lately. That is about to change.

    Ed from SFV (950df5)

  46. We’ve done all this via Zoom, or course. Kevin M (ab1c11) — 3/27/2020 @ 7:30 pm

    OT/ SEC suspended trading in Zoom Tech[ticker ZOOM), a Chinese company, because investors were confusing it with another company with a similar name [ticker ZM].

    felipe (023cc9)

  47. Well, it looks like someone wants the American people to know who their (short-term) savior is in one aspect of this mess:

    Trump has told people he wants his signature to appear on the direct payment checks that will go out to many Americans. Normally, a civil servant—the disbursing officer for the payment center—would sign federal checks.

    Dana (4fb37f)

  48. Dana (4fb37f) — 3/27/2020 @ 7:56 pm

    That sounds familiar, Dana:

    Mark 12:16 16 They brought the coin, and he asked them, “Whose image is this? And whose inscription?” “Caesar’s,” they replied.

    felipe (023cc9)

  49. Good catch, felipe.

    Dana (4fb37f)

  50. Milking it for all it’s worth. What a disgusting Drumpfelschnitzel!

    nk (1d9030)

  51. This is an open thread, right? You don’t need to click the link, just read the extension:

    https://www.popularmechanics.com/space/solar-system/a31958857/uranus-is-leaking-gas/

    nk (1d9030)

  52. nk (1d9030) — 3/27/2020 @ 8:05 pm

    Haven’t you heard the news, nk?

    felipe (023cc9)

  53. I’m imagining a law school exam scenario here, where Stormy dies having not cashed a settlement check from Trump’s campaign, that turns out to bounce, but the Corona Virus check is signed by Trump, so do the funds revert to the government or succeed to her heirs?

    Dustin (928d9a)

  54. Welp:

    The national shortage of N95 respirator masks can be traced back to 2009 after the H1N1 swine flu pandemic, when the Obama administration was advised to replenish a national stockpile but did not, according to reports from Bloomberg News and the Los Angeles Times.

    In 2009, the H1N1 outbreak hit the United States, leading to 274,304 hospitalizations, 12,469 deaths, and a depletion of N95 respirator masks.

    A federally backed task force and a safety equipment organization both recommended to the Obama administration that the stockpile be replenished with the 100 million masks used after the H1N1 outbreak.

    Charles Johnson, president of the International Safety Equipment Association, said that advice was never heeded.

    “Our association is unaware of any major effort to restore the stockpile to cover that drawdown,” he said.

    Dana (4fb37f)

  55. Dustin,

    She’s reportedly worth $2 million, so she wouldn’t qualify to get a coronavirus check signed by Trump.

    Dana (4fb37f)

  56. Dana gets an A

    Dustin (928d9a)

  57. She’s reportedly worth $2 million, so she wouldn’t qualify to get a coronavirus check signed by Trump.

    It depends what her 2018/19 income was. I’d guess it’s over $99k, but she had a lot of expenses those years.

    Colonel Klink (Ret) (305827)

  58. On the flip side — and I have recent experience with this, they make the decision to furlough workers trivially easy. After all, the employees are not getting hurt, assuming this blows over in a month or two — they’ll just have had a vacation on Uncle Sugar’s tab.

    I expect that when the lockdowns end, whenever that is, the extended benefits will disappear.

    Kevin M (ab1c11) — 3/27/2020 @ 7:39 pm

    I hope you are right. I read elsewhere the the extra unemployment benefits extend till the end of the year. That’s a long time for an unskilled laborer to decide they’d rather sit at home than work hard in a warehouse loading trucks or working in a supermarket or restaurant.

    NJRob (4d595c)

  59. OT/ SEC suspended trading in Zoom Tech[ticker ZOOM)

    Yeah. It was confusing, but I bought ZM, not ZOOM, back at 128.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  60. I hope you are right. I read elsewhere the the extra unemployment benefits extend till the end of the year.

    I think it’s 4 months, not that I’ve read the bill.

    Several clearly written articles in Forbes:

    (3/25) https://www.forbes.com/sites/advisor/2020/03/25/what-you-need-to-know-about-expanded-unemployment-benefits-for-covid-19/#f1826bf36e4a

    (3/27) https://www.forbes.com/sites/advisor/2020/03/27/your-guide-to-the-federal-stimulus-package/#3878694f2711

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  61. The stimulus check depends on your most recently filed tax return.

    I filed my 2019 return electronically a few days ago, since my 2018 AGI had a large capital gain and would have disqualified me for the $2400 check. 2019 had just my retirement income and qualifies rather nicely. If it had been the other way around, I would have delayed by 2019 filing as long as possible (July 15).

    I plan on donating the money, but I need to get it first.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  62. The next time someone compares all those H1N1 deaths to the Xi Virus, here’s the real comparison:

    Swine flu
    April 15, 2009 — first infection detected
    June 19, 2009 — 21,449 cases, 87 deaths

    Covid-19
    Jan. 20, 2020 — first infection detected
    March 25, 2020 — 69,344 cases, 1,050 deaths

    Paul Montagu (df60ed)

  63. lol CNN

    Infected? – use totals
    Tested? – per capita.

    https://twitter.com/JimmyPrinceton/status/1243709695229153280?s=20
    __ _

    Also:

    Bruno Maçães
    @MacaesBruno

    Turkey also received defective testing kits from China. As did Ukraine and a handful more countries. I have stopped counting. Once could be a mistake, this raises questions
    __ _

    Debojyoti Dasgupta
    @tisDev
    ·

    Spain
    Italy
    Colombia
    Turkey
    Czech Republic
    Ukraine

    Nothing…just naming few countries which received faulty corona test kits(80% kits failed detection) from China…
    __ _

    ajeet kumar singh
    @ajeets703
    ·

    #COVID #China First they hide facts,
    Second they hold information,
    Third they share wrong data,
    Fourth did not stop outbound travel,
    Fifth hide infected and dead people numbers
    Sixth they destroyed imp data regarding virus origin (Bcs they created)
    Now selling kits with poor accuracy

    __ _

    That story from last year about the Clinton Foundation helping China get ‘pre-approval’ (no testing by recipient countries) for Chinese vaccines shipped to the third world is making me wonder….
    _

    harkin (b64479)

  64. I think it’s 4 months, not that I’ve read the bill.

    Some clarity. The extended benefits are for 39 weeks of NORMAL state UI checks. There is an ADDITIONAL 4 months of a federal add-on that is $600/week regardless of base pay. Further, self-employed and gig workers are now covered under UI.

    I guess the hope is that the 40 million or so workers who are going to be furloughed or laid off in April will be able to maintain their standard of living until this lock-down is no longer needed and they *presto* everything goes back to normal.

    I’ll believe it when I see it, but it’s a damn sight better than breadlines and soup kitchens. The hardest thing about an deep recession/depression is getting the egg/chicken thing going again.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  65. Jan. 20, 2020 — first infection detected

    In the US. It was first identified as a new virus by Chinese doctors near the start of Dec 2019. I think that they will find that the first cases in the US were in early January, just no one recognized them for what they were.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  66. It depends what her 2018/19 income was. I’d guess it’s over $99k, but she had a lot of expenses those years.

    AGI not taxable income. And the interest in 2019 on $2 million would have been about $50K.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  67. Trump vows to violate oversight provisions of stimulus law

    Under the legislation, the new inspector general’s office is required to tell Congress “without delay” whenever administration officials are unreasonably withholding crucial information from investigators. But the White House signing statement said the administration will not allow the inspector general to tell Congress without “presidential supervision,” calling it a violation of executive branch authority.

    Dave (1bb933)

  68. It was first identified as a new virus by Chinese doctors near the start of Dec 2019.

    No it wasn’t.

    Dave (1bb933)

  69. I’m not very worried about signing statements, they carry no force of law. The problem is the administration ignores all oversight, regardless, whether legal or not.

    Colonel Klink (Ret) (305827)

  70. I want to make two points to you. I want to make two promises. This is a different beast that we are dealing with. This is an invisible beast, this is an insidious beast. This is not going to be a short deployment. This is not going to be that you go out there for a few days we work hard and go home. This is going to be weeks and weeks and weeks. This is going to be a long day and it’s going to be a hard day and it’s going to be a ugly day and it’s going to be a sad day.

    This is a rescue mission that you’re are on. The mission is to save lives, that’s what you are doing, the rescue mission is to save lives and as hard as we work we are not going be able to save everyone. and what’s even more cruel is this enemy doesn’t attack the strongest of us, it attacks the weakest of us. It attacks our most vulnerable, which makes it even worse in many ways, because these are the people that every instinct tells us we’re suppose to protect. These are our parents and our grandparents, these are our aunts our uncles, these are our relatives who is sick, and every instinct says protect them, help them, because they need us, and those are the exact people that this enemy attacks.

    Every time I’ve called out the national guard, I’ve said the same thing to you, I promise you I will not ask you to do anything that I will not do myself and I’ll never ask you to do go anywhere that I won’t go myself. And the same is true here. We are going to do this and we are going to do this together.

    Gov. Cuomo addresses the troops.

    Not bad. Like all politicians I don’t put a lot of faith in him, but obviously the contrast is stark.

    Dustin (928d9a)

  71. New Mexico orders quarantine for all airport arrivals.

    Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham ordered air travelers to quarantine themselves for 14 days upon arrival as the state tries to limit the spread of COVID-19, the disease caused by the new coronavirus.

    Her executive order also warns travelers that they face the possibility of “involuntary isolation” if they don’t comply. She authorized the state Department of Public Health to screen, isolate and quarantine people covered by the order.

    https://www.abqjournal.com/1437470/number-of-nm-coronavirus-cases-grows-by-55-to-191.html

    This seems to be the next stage of the lock-down. How a governor can use an executive order to incarcerate people is unexplored, but the gloves are coming off and the State’s mailed fist is in the open.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  72. Let’s say that most of the vulnerable people (elderly, HIV+, COPD, asthma, heart problems, etc) know who they are (or can be told by their doctor). Such people can isolate fairly effectively (or be kept isolated in a custodial situation) for a period of time. But not forever. Sooner or later they have to venture forth.

    It seems to me that the longer it takes for the virus to burn through the low-risk groups, the longer this isolation has to continue. It is not clear to me that extending the viral path for 12-18 months will protect any of these high-risk people from contracting this illness, and may well increase their chance of exposure towards certainty.

    Admittedly, they would likely have full access to medical care, since the curve would flatten, but you still have that basic mortality rate that flattening the curve does not change.

    If there were some prospect of a workable vaccine, that would be one thing, but not only does that seem far off, but neither the cold (which this virus is related to) nor the flu seem very susceptible to vaccines.

    So, I’m not sure this is the right path. It avoids the system collapse (like in Italy), but it may increase the number of eventual risk-group deaths.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  73. The Chinese reported it to the WHO in December, lord only knows how long it had been in existence prior to them reporting it.

    Colliente (05736f)

  74. They reported it in late December, but lied about its nature. The told the WHO that it was NOT transmitted human-to-human, when all evidence showed otherwise.

    Jan 14: The World Health Organization: “Preliminary investigations conducted by the Chinese authorities have found no clear evidence of human-to-human transmission of the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) identified in Wuhan, China.”

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  75. The Chinese reported it to the WHO in December, lord only knows how long it had been in existence prior to them reporting it.

    Near the end of December, yes.

    It is well-documented. If it were significantly earlier, it would have spread to other places earlier too.

    You can’t hide something like this for any significant length of time because it reveals itself.

    Dave (1bb933)

  76. They reported it in late December, but lied about its nature. The told the WHO that it was NOT transmitted human-to-human, when all evidence showed otherwise.

    They never said it was not transmitted human-to-human. They said there was no clear evidence that it was transmitted from human-to-human. As someone with scientific/technical background you should understand those are not the same thing.

    Jan 14: The World Health Organization: “Preliminary investigations conducted by the Chinese authorities have found no clear evidence of human-to-human transmission of the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) identified in Wuhan, China.”

    Right. There are anecdotal reports of doctors becoming ill. Whether this was known to the people reporting “no clear evidence” is a matter of speculation. Certainly they might have been lying, and/or under political pressure to minimize the seriousness, although to what end is unclear.

    Another possibility is that the high incidence of asymptomatic infection threw them off. If you expect 90% of people in contact with an infected person to get sick, and only 20% do, you might misinterpret that.

    I think by around the first week in January, they should have known it was contagious, but they reported “no clear evidence” for another two weeks. Claims that they should have known in early- or mid-December are unreasonable, though.

    Dave (1bb933)

  77. WaPo: If you’ve run out of toilet paper, Woody Allen’s memoir is also made of paper

    Marty DiBergi: (quoting a review) “This tasteless cover is a good indication of the lack of musical invention within. The musical growth of this band cannot even be charted. They are treading water in a sea of retarded sexuality and bad poetry.”
    Nigel Tufnel: That’s just nitpicking, innit?
    This is Spinal Tap

    Dave (1bb933)

  78. Right. There are anecdotal reports of doctors becoming ill. Whether this was known to the people reporting “no clear evidence” is a matter of speculation. Certainly they might have been lying, and/or under political pressure to minimize the seriousness, although to what end is unclear.

    Another possibility is that the high incidence of asymptomatic infection threw them off. If you expect 90% of people in contact with an infected person to get sick, and only 20% do, you might misinterpret that.

    I think by around the first week in January, they should have known it was contagious, but they reported “no clear evidence” for another two weeks. Claims that they should have known in early- or mid-December are unreasonable, though.

    Dave (1bb933) — 3/27/2020 @ 11:33 pm

    Wow. Just imagine if you gave the President the same benefit of the doubt you give Chinese Communist Totalitarian regimes.

    NJRob (4d595c)

  79. Wow. Just imagine if you gave the President the same benefit of the doubt you give Chinese Communist Totalitarian regimes.

    Except for when he claimed “I felt it was a pandemic long before it was called a pandemic,” which countless earlier statements by him prove is an obvious lie, I don’t think I’ve ever accused the Trump of lying about the virus.

    Being a drooling narcissistic moron leading a death cult, yes.

    Lying, no.

    Dave (1bb933)

  80. OK, there was also “Everyone who wants a test gets a test.”

    That was kind of a whopper. Not much room for benefit of the doubt there, either.

    Dave (1bb933)

  81. In the last three years, the Chinese government probably has a better track record of truthfulness than Trump.

    But that’s not saying much. There’s no doubt both will lie whenever it suits them.

    Dave (1bb933)

  82. I wouldn’t say China’s better than Trump. China’s true evil. Trump’s evil too, but it’s basically a personality disorder with him. Trump might think he is like those tanks rolling over protesters when he’s talking trash to a magazine, but he doesn’t have that kind of spine. He can’t make decisions at all.

    This virus is revealing many problems in our society and China’s. They deserve better and so do we. We’re so worried that we need this economy, but we don’t need it for more than our actual necessities. This raging debate between economy and family wouldn’t even need to happen if every company, landlord, and young family weren’t broke from buying too much.

    We’re so programmed to detest those who are opposed to us politically. The potential of a Trump supporter and me listening to eachother… it’s very low. We can accomplish civility, but not real communication. If we all just communicated our shared goals, the two party system would be wiped away, as it obviously should be. Sure, there’s a debate about bailouts and deficits and trillions spent today, but there’s no serious argument that we should be wasting that much money for no reason, in the good years, except that we wanted to keep the bubble bubbling.

    Dustin (928d9a)

  83. @71. It’s called leadership.

    “I want you guys figuring our minimum power needed in the LEM to sustain life.” – Gene Kranz, Flight Director, Apollo 13, 4/13/1970

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  84. Sure am happy I’m no where near Los Angeles.
    The govna closing gun shops while letting 1700 inmates free to me is nuts. And then not complying to the govna and his dictatorship he will then cut off your water and electricity.The totalitarian language just rolls off the tongue of these democrats. And having big tech be your enforcer is pathetic. Your papers please, comrade.

    mg (8cbc69)

  85. If there is a technology to expose people to a small quantity of the natural virus, we should consider that, as initial dose seems to correlate with severity of symptoms.

    Make America Ordered Again (23f793)

  86. 80. OK, there was also “Everyone who wants a test gets a test.”

    Keep repeating the same lie. Everyone that NEEDS a test gets a test.

    Iowan2 (bbb95d)

  87. If there is a technology to expose people to a small quantity of the natural virus, we should consider that, as initial dose seems to correlate with severity of symptoms.

    Make America Ordered Again (23f793) — 3/28/2020 @ 4:56 am

    Viral load does seem to be an issue, but we don’t actually know that. Everything about this bug seems to be a guess from people who learn more later.

    The disease is too infectious for chickenpox parties and I don’t see how your plan doesn’t wind up killing a lot of people.

    Keep repeating the same lie. Everyone that NEEDS a test gets a test.

    Iowan2 (bbb95d) — 3/28/2020 @ 4:58 am

    You are right… that’s a lie. But it’s Trump’s lie. Everyone who needs a test isn’t getting a test right now. People are literally dying after being denied the test. You deserve better than a leader who makes you protect him from criticism. You deserve a leader who does things you can actually be proud of. Real things. Not theories about hidden sales genius but real success.

    Dustin (928d9a)

  88. Tentatively and hypothetically, we could test a protocol for volunteers of something like:

    • 5 mg time-release melatonin for five nights
    • then the above + 200 mg hydroxychloroquine twice daily + 220 mg zinc sulfate daily for one day
    • then one intentional exposure to low-dose live SARS-CoV-2 along with, for an additional five days, the above two drugs + 2 g extended-release azithromycin daily

    For those who are going to be exposed eventually, this could be life-saving.

    Make America Ordered Again (23f793)

  89. Viral load does seem to be an issue, but we don’t actually know that.

    Yes, I know.

    Everything about this bug seems to be a guess from people who learn more later.

    Absolutely.

    Make America Ordered Again (23f793)

  90. P.S. I recognize medical ethics problems with the above. So we probably won’t do that (I suppose we could if we took “war footing” stuff seriously about COVID-19). However, in principle, it’s plausible that it would work.

    We could, of course, run similar trials on people in the early stages of disease, with various groups, no intervention being one, with various combinations or omittals of part of the above drug lists, different drugs, etc., which is what we’re doing, but I think we should add melatonin to the experiments.

    Make America Ordered Again (23f793)

  91. Keep repeating the same lie. Everyone that NEEDS a test gets a test.

    AND also a lie.

    Ragspierre (d9bec9)

  92. HOWEVER, regarding the above “intentional low-dose SARS-CoV-2″ thought experiments, I strongly recommend masks, etc., both to reduce the likelihood of transmission to others, to slow the spread, until we have enough medications and well-hashed out in protocols to treat more people and save lives, but also, if I get infected, and a mask may not prevent that (even a cotton mask filters out most, but by no means all, viral particles), I want to keep my initial dose of the virus low, since that seems to correlate with shorter recovery and less likelihood of dying/injury.

    Taking steps to reduce one’s and one’s family’s initial viral dose is prudent, even if infection itself proves impractical to prevent commensurate with still completing necessary tasks.

    Make America Ordered Again (23f793)

  93. I wouldn’t say China’s better than Trump.

    Not better. Smarter.

    Also, “China” is not monolithic. It’s more than a billion people. Even their highly centralized government is not monolithic. It has a hierarchy that extends from Xi down to the local level. The head of the health office in Wuhan is not necessarily a politically powerful or connected official. There are likely one or two levels of mid-level people between him and the national health minister. And the national health minister might not even be particularly well connected. There might be another layer or two of bureaucracy between him and the real political decision-makers.

    Our own government’s incompetence illustrates one scenario that might have played out in some form in China too. Low level people, who are reasonably well-informed about the facts, inform less competent higher-ups who decide the problem will “magically go away”. These mid-level apparatchiks don’t want to attract unfavorable attention from their own bosses, so they tell their subordinates to keep the problem quiet, not realizing the seriousness, and that it isn’t going away. Maybe they even genuinely believe the problem will take care of itself – our own president, with the best medical and intelligence experts in the world advising him, was insisting that it would go away six weeks later, after much, much more information than anybody had in mid January was available.

    Saying someone “lied” implies they knew the truth. While nothing can be ruled out, knowing the truth (the virus is contagious) means you know that it’s going to spread widely, and that its communicability will soon be evident to everyone in China, and in the world. In that situation, it’s hard to see what anybody gains by lying. A lie which is sure to be exposed in short order, and which results in great harm to your own people seems far worse than telling the truth in any rational calculus.

    Another possibility – again modeled very well in our own government’s response – is that somebody initially f*cked up, and then resisted admitting their mistake. One of the mid-level types might have told their boss it wasn’t contagious, and then as more evidence became available, was afraid of the consequences of reversing themselves.

    In any case, saying “China” lied pre-supposes it was somehow a conscious decision by the national leadership. It could have been, but it doesn’t seem like the most likely explanation to me. All that was required was one insecure or incompetent bureaucrat somewhere between Wuhan and Beijing.

    Dave (1bb933)

  94. Dave (1bb933) — 3/28/2020 @ 12:35 am

    In the last three years, the Chinese government probably has a better track record of truthfulness than Trump.

    But that’s not saying much. There’s no doubt both will lie whenever it suits them.

    This really is saying a lot. The CCP has a long history of egregious, genocide level, human rights violations and lying about them. The lying being just a small part of the problem.

    That is some serious Trump hate.

    frosty (f27e97)

  95. Keep repeating the same lie. Everyone that NEEDS a test gets a test.

    He said “Everyone that wants a test gets a test” multiple times. You have been shown the video.

    Dave (1bb933)

  96. He said “Everyone that wants a test gets a test” multiple times. You have been shown the video.

    He did say that and it was wrong.

    However, his misapprehension about the quantity of tests available at that point in time, while problematic, isn’t of the same quality or magnitude as the Chinese Communist Party’s telling the world the virus wasn’t human-transmissable while sending its agents to buy literal tons of personal protective equipment medical supplies around the world, now is it?

    Make America Ordered Again (23f793)

  97. Dave (1bb933) — 3/28/2020 @ 5:42 am

    What

    NJRob (4d595c) — 3/28/2020 @ 12:16 am

    said x1000. I hope you’re getting paid for that.

    frosty (f27e97)

  98. This really is saying a lot. The CCP has a long history of egregious, genocide level, human rights violations and lying about them. The lying being just a small part of the problem.

    That is some serious Trump hate.

    Way to ignore the fact that I said “in the last three years”. The Chinese government realizes that credibility is worth something to them, so they don’t lie stupidly or unnecessarily like Trump does.

    Trump lies like Kim Jong-Un or Saddam Hussein; his lies are addressed to a cult of followers, who will believe anything he says; everyone else immediately recognizes his words as obvious, risible falsehoods.

    The Chinese prefer to project the facade of business-like competence. They realize that telling the truth to the extent possible makes the lies they do tell more credible.

    Dave (1bb933)

  99. telling the world the virus wasn’t human-transmissable

    That’s not what they said…

    Dave (1bb933)

  100. The Chinese government realizes that credibility is worth something to them, so they don’t lie stupidly or unnecessarily like Trump does.

    You’re just going to ignore that they lied about whether the virus is transmissable to humans or not, and that they have since kicked reporters out of their country and are lying, big time, about their numbers?

    You’re really undermining your own credibility here.

    Make America Ordered Again (23f793)

  101. You’re really undermining your own credibility here.

    Miff, snorkle, snig, miff…

    (I’m trying to suppress a guffaw…I really, really AM…)

    Ragspierre (d9bec9)

  102. The U.S. system allows for any misstatements of Trump to be correctly challenged and corrected. It doesn’t of China’s. To say Trump is lying “worse” than China because, say, he didn’t at the time (it was corrected by Fauci among others) understand that personal protective equipment was a rate-limiting step to how fastly we can test for coronavirus isn’t the same thing, and it’s intellectually dishonest, as well as responsible, to pretend not to understand that.

    The CCP’s lies are much larger, longer lasting, and more destructive.

    Make America Ordered Again (23f793)

  103. *irresponsible

    Make America Ordered Again (23f793)

  104. …any misstatements…

    Actually, Duh Donald’s manifold outright lies are NOT ‘correctly challenged and correctly corrected”.

    He has a phalanx of myrmidons and co-liars in his cult and in government that go about supporting his lies and practice smash-mouth thuggery against those who point out your Great Goad Cheeto is naked as a jay-bird (i.e., he’s got no cloths).

    Ragspierre (d9bec9)

  105. You’re just going to ignore that they lied about whether the virus is transmissable to humans or not

    I don’t know what happened, all I have pointed out is that nobody commenting here does either, despite many – including you – falsely insisting otherwise.

    They never said the virus wasn’t transmissible. They said there was no clear evidence it was transmissible. Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.

    To conclude that somebody lied, and if so, to determine who it was that lied, requires more information than any of us have. It is a definite possibility.

    and that they have since kicked reporters out of their country

    They kicked our reporters out of their country because *we* kicked their reporters out of our country. There are still plenty of reporters over there, from all over the world.

    and are lying, big time, about their numbers?

    I can’t rule it out, although there is a vast amount of evidence to the contrary.

    Dave (1bb933)

  106. Have you guys gone stir crazy? Comparing Trump, one single Drumpfelschnitzel, to China, the world’s largest nation, is like comparing the contents of a single toilet in a New York public restroom to the Okefenokee swamp.

    nk (1d9030)

  107. Dave (1bb933) — 3/28/2020 @ 6:09 am

    Way to ignore the fact that I said “in the last three years”.

    No I didn’t. The CCP has a horrible track record over the last three years.

    Hate on Trump all you want but if your best choice for making your point is shilling for the CCP like a strung out pimp pushing a stable of $5 whores you might want to pause, take a few minutes, and come up with a new plan.

    frosty (f27e97)

  108. Dave (1bb933) — 3/28/2020 @ 6:09 am

    Way to ignore the fact that I said “in the last three years”.

    No I didn’t. The CCP has a horrible track record over the last three years.

    Hate on Trump all you want but if your best choice for making your point is shilling for the CCP like a strung out p*** pushing a stable of $5 w***** you might want to pause, take a few minutes, and come up with a new plan.

    frosty (f27e97)

  109. “I love Michigan, one of the reasons we are doing such a GREAT job for them during this horrible Pandemic,” the president wrote. “Yet your Governor, Gretchen “Half” Whitmer is way in over her head, she doesn’t have a clue. Likes blaming everyone for her own ineptitude! #MAGA”

    “I say, Mike … don’t call the woman in Michigan. I say, if they don’t treat you right, don’t call,” Trump told reporters.

    The remark followed previous comments the president made Thursday during an interview with Fox News’ Sean Hannity.

    “We’ve had a big problem with the young, a woman governor,” Trump said. “You know who I’m talking about, from Michigan. We don’t like to see the complaints.”

    That’s the Thug In The Oval Office “fighting for us”.

    Ragspierre (d9bec9)

  110. The New York-based fake news media (and this time I mean it) is at a loss whether to make Chicago or California (yes, Chicago the city and California the state) the next hot spot “like New York”.

    I have some news for them. It is true that we now have the same kind freak show in our city hall as they have in New York’s city hall. But Chicagoans are not New Yorkers.

    nk (1d9030)

  111. same kind *of* freak show

    nk (1d9030)

  112. Hate on Trump all you want but if your best choice for making your point is shilling for the CCP like a strung out p*** pushing a stable of $5 w***** you might want to pause, take a few minutes, and come up with a new plan.

    LOL

    Dave (1bb933)

  113. Well, here’s the thing. Trump is imperfect, but can string together coherent thoughts.

    Somehow, this blog appears to have gotten behind foisting a collapsing senile competing candidate upon the nation during a national emergency. Why?

    And if you didn’t know about this national emergency at the time, you obviously knew there could be some.

    Make America Ordered Again (23f793)

  114. Make America Ordered Again (23f793) — 3/28/2020 @ 7:12 am

    this blog appears to have gotten behind …

    To paraphrase Alpa Chino; what do you mean this blog? Also, I don’t think the Biden fanboys are in the position you’re referring too.

    frosty (f27e97)

  115. but can string together coherent thoughts

    oh no u dint

    Dave (1bb933)

  116. what do you mean this blog?

    Patterico, many of the commenters. It’s a generalization.

    You certainly can’t accuse Iowan2, whembly, and I, to name three, of being on team Biden. I even pointed out other Dem candidates who, while I didn’t like their leftism at all, seem to be actually sane.

    Sane is good in a President. Meanwhile, commenters like DRJ see Biden’s weakness as a plus.

    Make America Ordered Again (23f793)

  117. All this blah-blah-blather is smoke to hide the facts:
    1. Mitch McConnell’s Chinese wife, who is the Secretary of Transportation, let the coronavirus get here from China.
    2. The reason she did it is that the Drumpfelschnitzel was more worried about the disruption in commerce and the effect on the stock market.
    3. When it happened anyway, the Drumpfelschnitzel called it a Democratic hoax to hurt his chances of reelection.
    4. When he found out that you cannot gaslight a virus and that 6 out of 7 of his properties, including his vacation homes, had become infected with “the hoax”, he got off his wrinkled old orange ass, with too little too late.
    5. Now he keeps on gaslighting with the help of his cohorts of dung beetles (that’s opportunists) and mouth breathers (that’s morons), constantly trying to shift blame and trying to grab all the credit for the work of other people.

    nk (1d9030)

  118. @116 It’s a sure bet that Biden won’t be POTUS. A year ago it would have been impossible to even consider Sanders based solely on his heart issues. The fundamental issues behind that haven’t changed.

    frosty (f27e97)

  119. It’s a sure bet that Biden won’t be POTUS.

    OK, but if Trump is so awful, then the Democrats had a responsibility to—if there was a crisis laying bear Trump’s allegedly disqualifying leadership flaws—could be POTUS.

    Not even doing that much, presenting a credible alternative for the people to consider, is incredibly reckless and dangerous to the country.

    Make America Ordered Again (23f793)

  120. ^present a candidate who could be POTUS

    Make America Ordered Again (23f793)

  121. nk (1d9030) — 3/28/2020 @ 6:52 am

    The fickle finger of Fake seems to have landed on New Orleans.

    Kishnevi (98ea1b)

  122. Not even doing that much, presenting a credible alternative for the people to consider, is incredibly reckless and dangerous to the country.

    This is called “deflection”.

    Ragspierre (d9bec9)

  123. This is called “deflection”.

    Deflection from what? It’s the coronavirus open thread, during an election year and national emergency.

    Make America Ordered Again (23f793)

  124. Wow. Just imagine if you gave the President the same benefit of the doubt you give Chinese Communist Totalitarian regimes.

    Educators know who butters their bread.

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  125. 93 – Dave (1bb933) — 3/28/2020 @ 5:42 am

    Also, “China” is not monolithic. It’s more than a billion people. Even their highly centralized government is not monolithic. It has a hierarchy that extends from Xi down to the local level. The head of the health office in Wuhan is not necessarily a politically powerful or connected official. There are likely one or two levels of mid-level people between him and the national health minister. And the national health minister might not even be particularly well connected. There might be another layer or two of bureaucracy between him and the real political decision-makers.

    Strong analysis.

    Mo Hawk (6c01b3)

  126. Well, here’s the thing. Trump is imperfect, but can string together coherent thoughts.

    Deflection from your cult leader. Who is “imperfect”. And who is known for his word salads with Thousand Falsehoods dressing.

    AND the incredibly FALSE assertion that “this blog” has gotten behind Biden. I don’t blame you for running from that BS.

    Ragspierre (d9bec9)

  127. Deflection from your cult leader.

    Which is equivalent to calling me a cultist. Will you knock it off? You were told to do that only two or three days ago.

    My argument was extremely simple and anyone can scroll up and read it. Paraphrased: “If Trump is as terrible as you say, then the Democrats had a responsibility to nominate a candidate who is mentally competent.”

    This isn’t hard to understand and is a deflection from nothing.

    Make America Ordered Again (23f793)

  128. You know I wrote this, Ragspierre:

    if Trump is so awful, then the Democrats had a responsibility to—if there was a crisis laying bear Trump’s allegedly disqualifying leadership flaws—

    So when you write:

    Deflection from your cult leader. Who is “imperfect”.

    you’re quote-mining and thus straw manning me.

    Why not address my argument and tell me what part of the Democrats should have instead/should nominate a mentally competent alternative to Trump you disagree with, if any? My guess is you don’t.

    Make America Ordered Again (23f793)

  129. It’s a possibility, however unlikely, that Trump will lose the election. It’s an even larger possibility that he could die or suffer some other disqualifying health crisis (such as a stroke or aneurysm [which Biden has had, incidentally)].

    So it would be helpful to the country if the Democrats weren’t on there way to nominating someone who is already gravely ill and whose mental faculties are demonstrated to be severely compromised on an almost daily basis.

    Make America Ordered Again (23f793)

  130. you’re quote-mining and thus straw manning me.

    Well, I AM quoting you.

    But you have yet to learn what a straw man fallacy is. Today would be opportune.

    Our nominating process is broken. I’ve said that since we were handed the two lying, cheating, pathologically narcissistic Collectivist thugs we got in 2016.

    There. I said it again.

    Ragspierre (d9bec9)

  131. It would have been just as easy to say, “That one thing you said makes sense, MAOA,” and avoid that whole venemous side discussion without the slightest purpose behind it.

    Make America Ordered Again (23f793)

  132. Gosh.

    I failed to jump through your hoop. How can I go on…?

    Ragspierre (d9bec9)

  133. I’ve found it easier to support Trump if I don’t listen to him too much. Much of what underpins my support for POTUS comes from what his enemies say and do.

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  134. Innit interesting, CH. I find that much of my loathing of Duh Donald comes from my observations of his cult (very different than those who voted for him).

    Ragspierre (d9bec9)

  135. No one is claiming that Patterico, DRJ, and others here are or were ever on board “the Biden is the best possible person to lead America; we 100% love him to bits” train.

    I’m saying a lot of people saw him as the best alternative among the available options to oppose Trump and I’m disagreeing with that, saying they should have prioritized mental competence higher.

    That’s all.

    EXCEPT, I’ll add, that since Biden is now flailing horribly, even just from his home, this would be a good time to reconsider one’s previous compromise stance and push for the Dems to consider a saner alternative, for the good of the country.

    Make America Ordered Again (23f793)

  136. Make America Ordered Again (23f793) — 3/28/2020 @ 8:07 am

    My argument was extremely simple and anyone can scroll up and read it. Paraphrased: “If Trump is as terrible as you say, then the Democrats had a responsibility to nominate a candidate who is mentally competent.”

    There are several different conversations going on here from both sides.

    With respect to Biden, here is the extremely simple argument; Democrats had a responsibility to nominate a candidate who is mentally competent. It doesn’t say anything about Trump that they didn’t do that. You don’t need to be a Trump fan to say that. Anyone who considers themselves a rational voter of either party should be saying that.

    If we learn anything from this crisis, and we’ve got a lot to learn, it’s that we need to start taking some of this seriously.

    frosty (f27e97)

  137. A saner alternative would be someone competent who is able to accomplish the political goals of his Party. I don’t want that. I want a placeholder until the GOP decides to be more fiscally responsible or another Party embraces that goal.

    DRJ (15874d)

  138. 119-
    Gruber/Creamer/2020
    These two must be ready for another sting.

    mg (8cbc69)

  139. With respect to Biden, here is the extremely simple argument; Democrats had a responsibility to nominate a candidate who is mentally competent. It doesn’t say anything about Trump [emphasis added] that they didn’t do that. You don’t need to be a Trump fan to say that [emphasis added]. Anyone who considers themselves a rational voter of either party should be saying that.

    If we learn anything from this crisis, and we’ve got a lot to learn, it’s that we need to start taking some of this seriously.

    Yep. Obviously- mentally incompetent major political party Presidential candidates should not be a thing.

    Make America Ordered Again (23f793)

  140. RIP
    Tom Coburn

    mg (8cbc69)

  141. I think that they will find that the first cases in the US were in early January, just no one recognized them for what they were.

    True, but the same could’ve been said about H1N1. The “first detected” benchmarks are the same.

    Paul Montagu (df60ed)

  142. Yep. Obviously- mentally incompetent major political party Presidential candidates should not be a thing.

    Yet we now have two. One is a known quantity and that is disaster. The other appears to have alzheimer’s. Of course, the Dems have months to pick a highly qualified running mate to take over (Klobuchar), or replace him with someone else. Trump is Trump, he’s not going to change.

    Colonel Klink (Ret) (305827)

  143. “ No one is claiming that Patterico, DRJ, and others here are or were ever on board “the Biden is the best possible person to lead America; we 100% love him to bits” train.”

    No they aren’t.

    Maybe whoever claimed it was just trying to supply the straw man argument some here have argued about.
    _

    harkin (b64479)

  144. RIP, Tom Coburn. He was a better than average member of both congressional houses, and apparently a mighty fine and dedicated physician and family man.

    Make America Ordered Again (23f793)

  145. “ Of course, the Dems have months to pick a highly qualified running mate to take over (Klobuchar), or replace him with someone else.”

    Well, they’ve already tried to nullify an election through made-up and overblown charges that wouldn’t have been a blip on the Obama or Hillary scorecards. Openly nominating Weekend at Bernie’s surely would just be following the same insane MO.
    _

    harkin (b64479)

  146. I think that they will find that the first cases in the US were in early January, just no one recognized them for what they were.

    This was probably not the wisest idea either:

    NYC Chinese New Year parade offers words of support to coronavirus-ravaged Wuhan
    By Rachel Green and Jackie SaloFebruary 9, 2020 | 3:26pm | Updated

    Nor was going ahead with Spring Break and Mardis Gras celebrations.

    Make America Ordered Again (23f793)

  147. Claims that they should have known in early- or mid-December are unreasonable, though.

    True, Axios has a timeline.

    Dec. 27: Wuhan health officials are told that a new coronavirus is causing the illness.
    Dec. 30:
    ● Ai Fen, a top director at Wuhan Central Hospital, posts information on WeChat about the new virus. She was reprimanded for doing so and told not to spread information about it.
    ● Wuhan doctor Li Wenliang also shares information on WeChat about the new SARS-like virus. He is called in for questioning shortly afterward.
    ● Wuhan health commission notifies hospitals of a “pneumonia of unclear cause” and orders them to report any related information.
    Dec. 31:
    ● Wuhan health officials confirm 27 cases of illness and close a market they think is related to the virus’ spread.
    ● China tells the World Health Organization’s China office about the cases of an unknown illness.

    Paul Montagu (df60ed)

  148. Keep repeating the same lie. Everyone that NEEDS a test gets a test.

    False. Trump also said “anybody who wants a test gets a test.”

    Paul Montagu (df60ed)

  149. Keep repeating the same lie. Everyone that NEEDS a test gets a test.

    Since anyone that NEEDS a test can’t get a test…today, it’s been 22 days, when will what he said be true? It wasn’t true when he said it, it wasn’t true a week later, or a week after that, or a week after that.

    Donald J. Trump

    But – but I think – I think, importantly: Anybody right now and yesterday – anybody that needs a test gets a test. We – they’re there. They have the tests. And the tests are beautiful. Anybody that needs a test gets a test.If there’s a doctor that wants to test, if there’s somebody coming off a ship – like the big monster ship that’s out there right now, which, you know – again, that’s a big decision. Do I want to bring all those people on? People would like me to do that. I don’t like the idea of doing it.But anybody that needs a test can have a test. They’re all set. They have them out there.In addition to that, they’re making millions of more as we speak. But as of right now and yesterday, anybody that needs a test – that’s the important thing – and the tests are all perfect, like the letter was perfect. The transcription was perfect, right? This was not as perfect as that, but pretty good.

    Colonel Klink (Ret) (305827)

  150. Nor was going ahead with Spring Break and Mardis Gras celebrations.“

    Spring Break no excuses although I don’t know how much of that was ‘going ahead’ by officials rather than college kids saying ‘FU Boomer Mayor, we’re here to par-tay!!’.

    In New Orleans the timing couldn’t have been worse, although going the full schedule (if that’s what they did) looks insane.

    At least the mayor of NO seems to be on-board now:

    “ Now, bars and restaurants are closed, and the city’s next massive party, the New Orleans Jazz and Heritage Festival, has been postponed. Mayor LaToya Cantrell even ordered basketball hoops removed from city facilities Sunday because people were still out on the courts.

    “I don’t know how you can guard a man with social distancing,” she said. “It doesn’t work.””
    _

    harkin (b64479)

  151. Since anyone that NEEDS a test can’t get a test…today

    Especially if I’m right about the benefits of early treatment with anti-viral combination therapies, this is doubly the case.

    Make America Ordered Again (23f793)

  152. Josefa Velásquez
    @J__Velasquez
    ·
    BREAKING: New York is delaying the April 28 presidential primary, Gov. Andrew Cuomo says.

    The new date will be June 23.
    _

    harkin (b64479)

  153. New Orleans is the only city in America with a higher case rate than Staten Island. It was nuts.

    Make America Ordered Again (23f793)

  154. Especially if I’m right about the benefits of early treatment with anti-viral combination therapies, this is doubly the case.

    That’s great, when they discover one that works, the one you’re promoting is useless. But it doesn’t change the fact that everyone that NEEDS a test can’t get one…today. That is called a lie, so you’re repeating a lie, and promoting a drug cocktail that is also a lie. Adding one lie to another lie, doesn’t make either one less of a lie. It just confirms that you, are a liar.

    Colonel Klink (Ret) (305827)

  155. Well, they’ve already tried to nullify an election through made-up and overblown charges that wouldn’t have been a blip on the Obama or Hillary scorecards. Openly nominating Weekend at Bernie’s surely would just be following the same insane MO.

    That’s a very good point. Rob is right, of course.

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  156. Make that harkin.

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  157. I suppose there’s a possibility that you don’t know how a calendar works. March 6th when Trump said that, is before March 28th, today. 3 weeks later, and a day. Time appears to work in a linear fashion for most of us, maybe for you and Trump it doesn’t, but the rest of us life in this reality.

    Colonel Klink (Ret) (305827)

  158. That’s great, when they discover one that works, the one you’re promoting is useless.

    The study that showed hydroxychloroquine monotherapy is ineffective was statistically insignificant according to its own admission and it hasn’t been reported whether they were treated earlier, as has been shown with other anti-viral monotherapies therapies to work favipiravir, lopinavir, and ritonavir.

    Whereas I predict that 200 mg hydroxychloroquine (or 500 mg chloroquine) twice daily + 2 g extended-release zithromycin daily + 220 mg zinc sulfate daily + 300 mcg—5 mg melatonin nightly will work.

    So it isn’t the same thing at all and you’re the one providing dishonest (I’ve pointed this out to you before, that it was a monotherapy and the time treatment is begun matters) and potentially dangerous misinformation for some reason.

    You do you, however. I can’t stop you, Colonel Klink.

    Make America Ordered Again (23f793)

  159. Since anyone that NEEDS a test can’t get a test…today

    Definition of “needs” probably coming from the same medical expert who’s sure he knows that states don’t need nearly as many ventilators as they’re requesting.

    Radegunda (39c35f)

  160. Whereas I predict that 200 mg hydroxychloroquine (or 500 mg chloroquine) twice daily + 2 g extended-release zithromycin daily + 220 mg zinc sulfate daily + 300 mcg—5 mg melatonin nightly will work.

    You are NOT a doctor, there have been zero studies that say you’re magic formula works, at all, none, nada, zero, zip. In fact, you specifically dismiss the only two studies that have been done, both limited, and both said the same thing, no value, none.

    The fact that you are promoting a specific treatment regiment on the internet is dangerous, and again, you are NOT a doctor, you are a liar, and a danger, you irresponsible actions put lives in danger. I cannot stress this enough, you are a danger to public safety.

    You are an idiot on the internet. Please internet, do not listen to this moron, he is putting you in harms way to stupidly troll, for what reason, who knows.

    Colonel Klink (Ret) (305827)

  161. Need is easily demonstrated by a $2,700 contribution to Trump’s reelection campaign. KEEP AMERICA GREAT!

    nk (1d9030)

  162. Colonel Klink (Ret) (305827) — 3/28/2020 @ 10:12 am

    Totally. 100+

    nk (1d9030)

  163. I have no idea if it works but I’ve been attempting to elevate my melatonin levels.

    https://www.chronobiology.com/studies-show-melatonin-may-help-fight-coronavirus/
    _

    harkin (b64479)

  164. Probably the most objectionable comment in this thread is from Haiku, taking a perfectly good Devo song and ruining it with that image of AOC.

    Paul Montagu (df60ed)

  165. Spring Break no excuses although I don’t know how much of that was ‘going ahead’ by officials rather than college kids saying ‘FU Boomer Mayor, we’re here to par-tay!!’.

    Some of it was “go ahead, kids” by officials, the governor of Florida chief among them. As can be shown by the fact that local officials began shutting down beaches as soon as they noticed Spring Breakers were spring breaking. DeSantis was specifically asked to close all beaches, refused, and when he did get around to closing beaches, he chose to start with beaches that were already closed by local officials.

    Kishnevi (54fe57)

  166. I have no idea if it works but I’ve been attempting to elevate my melatonin levels.

    [Studies Show Melatonin May Help Fight Coronavirus]

    Thanks for that link. It’s a new one for me and I’ll be sure to share it with my family and friends.

    Harkin, my first source for this (I have since added many, including studies on other viruses such as the original SARS-CoV), recommends, if you’re not infected anyway (at which point she recommends more, more often), a PHYSIOLOGIC dose of 200–500 mcg nightly. The smallest pill I can even find on Amazon is 300 mcg. That seems very prudent. You can achieve smaller doses with drops of melatonin in liquid suspension.

    Dr. Dr. Richard Neel at the Little Alsace Urgent Care Center in Castroville recommends 50–100 mcg malatonin four times a day, if infected. That’s even more prudent, although I’m taking it prophylactically in a physiologic doses (I have tablets with larger doses in them available for if I get infected).

    Make America Ordered Again (23f793)

  167. Little Alsace Urgent Care Center

    WTF?

    my first source for this (I have since added many, including studies on other viruses such as the original SARS-CoV)

    Post a single peer reviewed scientific study. One.

    Colonel Klink (Ret) (305827)

  168. “ No one is claiming that Patterico, DRJ, and others here are or were ever on board “the Biden is the best possible person to lead America; we 100% love him to bits” train.”

    No, that would be insane.

    Nearly as insane was your assertion that this blog was behind Biden.

    Ragspierre (d9bec9)

  169. Probably the most objectionable comment in this thread is from Haiku, taking a perfectly good Devo song and ruining it with that image of AOC.

    Man, I saw that band live around a dozen times between ‘78 and ‘90. They were a lot of fun!

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  170. Post a single peer reviewed scientific study. One.

    I have before, and I’m not going to spend a lot of time posting information to someone like you who isn’t open to persuasion. One can read the article harkin posted and do one’s own research. However, here are two just because you asked nicely with such an open mind:

    Look, I realize not everyone was convinced by the article I posted earlier pointing out the specific biochemical mechanisms melatonin may act antivirally in COVID-19 and how it’s probably more than a coincidence that those demographics with the highest melatonin levels (young children, third-trimester pregnant women [there is an elevation of melatonin between the second and third trimesters], and their fetuses) emerge from COVID-19 almost unscathed…

    … melatonin has also been shown to be helpful in SARS, West Nile Virus, and several others as you can read here:

    “The therapeutic effects of melatonin against viral infections, with emphasis on the Venezuelan equine encephalomyelitis (VEE), are reviewed. Melatonin has been shown to prevent paralysis and death in mice infected with the encephalomyocarditis virus and to decrease viremia. Melatonin also postpones the onset of the disease produced by Semliki Forest virus inoculation and reduces the mortality of West Nile virus-infected mice stressed by either isolation or dexamethasone injection. An increase in the host resistance to the virus via a peripheral immunostimulatory activity is considered responsible for these effects. It has also been demonstrated that melatonin protects some strains of mink against Aleutian disease, and prevents the reduction of B- and T-cells as well as Th1 cytokine secretion in mice infected with leukemia retrovirus. In VEE-infected mice, melatonin postpones the onset of the disease and death for several days and reduces the mortality rate. This protective effect seems to be due to the increase in the production of interleukin-1beta (IL-1beta), as 100% of the infected mice treated with melatonin die when IL-1beta is blocked with antimurine IL-1beta antibodies. Although melatonin administration raises serum levels of tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-alpha) and interferon-gamma (IFN-gamma), the mortality observed in neutralization experiments with the corresponding anticytokine antibodies, suggests that neither TNF-alpha nor IFN-gamma are essential for the protective effect of melatonin on murine VEE virus infection. Melatonin treatment also enhances the efficiency of immunization against the VEE virus. Reactive oxygen species have been implicated in the dissemination of this virus, and their deleterious effects may be diminished by melatonin. This indole inhibits nitric oxide synthetase activity and it is a potent scavenger of nitric oxide, which also plays an important role in the spread of the VEE virus. In conclusion, the immunomodulatory, antioxidant, and neuroprotective effects of melatonin suggest that this indole must be considered as an additional therapeutic alternative to fight viral diseases.”

    Bonilla E, Valero N, Chacín-Bonilla L, Medina-Leendertz S. Melatonin and viral infections. J Pineal Res. 2004 Mar;36(2):73-9.

    So why not add the smallest tablet (300 mcg) you can routinely buy to your nightly regime and get a better night’s sleep while perhaps saving your life and the lives of those you love?

    Take your melatonin.

    You know how there is wide variance in who suffers badly from COVID-19 and to whom it isn’t a big deal?

    This could be a big reason here.

    FINALLY, there was a study that just was published just one week ago that shows researchers are at least LOOKING at melatonin in a positive light:

    “Drug repurposing, representing as an effective drug discovery strategy from existing drugs, could shorten the time and reduce the cost compared to de novo drug discovery. In this study, we present an integrative, antiviral drug repurposing methodology implementing a systems pharmacology-based network medicine platform, quantifying the interplay between the HCoV–host interactome and drug targets in the human protein–protein interaction network. Phylogenetic analyses of 15 HCoV whole genomes reveal that 2019-nCoV/SARS-CoV-2 shares the highest nucleotide sequence identity with SARS-CoV (79.7%). Specifically, the envelope and nucleocapsid proteins of 2019-nCoV/SARS-CoV-2 are two evolutionarily conserved regions, having the sequence identities of 96% and 89.6%, respectively, compared to SARS-CoV. Using network proximity analyses of drug targets and HCoV–host interactions in the human interactome, we prioritize 16 potential anti-HCoV repurposable drugs (e.g., melatonin, mercaptopurine, and sirolimus) that are further validated by enrichment analyses of drug-gene signatures and HCoV-induced transcriptomics data in human cell lines. We further identify three potential drug combinations (e.g., sirolimus plus dactinomycin, mercaptopurine plus melatonin, and toremifene plus emodin) captured by the “Complementary Exposure” pattern: the targets of the drugs both hit the HCoV–host subnetwork, but target separate neighborhoods in the human interactome network. In summary, this study offers powerful network-based methodologies for rapid identification of candidate repurposable drugs and potential drug combinations targeting 2019-nCoV/SARS-CoV-2.

    Zhou, Y., Hou, Y., Shen, J. et al. Network-based drug repurposing for novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV/SARS-CoV-2. Cell Discov 6, 14 (2020).

    It’s safe. Bodies have had melatonin in them since long before we were human. We’re talking about the smallest tablet you can even buy at a supplement store! That’s a physiologic range. Why not do it and recommend it to those you love also?

    Also, remember when I suggested earlier your thinking process may not be sound? There is a lot of disagreement over whether “peer review” is even a particularly scientific process or gets in its way. I won’t get it into that here and will just let you emotionally react to it and express your opinions.

    Suffice it to say, I think it can often get in the way, and forming hypotheses, testing them, and reproducing them to confirm or verify them, is the way to do science, rather than pal review by alleged experts deciding if something is even worth looking at in advance, according to their own opinions based on conventional wisdom in their (almost always) overspecialized field.

    Make America Ordered Again (23f793)

  171. *confirm or disprove

    Make America Ordered Again (23f793)

  172. Little Alsace Urgent Care Center

    WTF?

    And yeah, that Richard Neel:

    Dr. Neel is from Lake Jackson, Texas and attended the University of Texas at San Antonio, receiving his Medical Degree at the University of Texas Health Science Center. He has a Master’s Degree in Public Health Administration (MPH) from Harvard University and completed his residency in Aerospace Medicine and his fellowship in Occupational Medicine. Dr. Neel is Board Certified in Aerospace Medicine.

    Dr. Neel served over 20 years as a Chief Flight Surgeon in the U.S. Air Force before his retirement as a Colonel. He lived in Europe for eight years serving as personal physician for Ambassadors, General Officers and Senior State Department Personnel.

    During his adventurous Air Force Career he was deployed for combat operations in the Middle East and Bosnia. He has over a thousand hours of flying time in jet fighters, bombers and helicopters.

    His many decorations include an Air Medal for assisting in the helicopter rescue of 32 people from a sinking tanker during a North Atlantic Hurricane. He led emergency response teams for NASA space shuttle emergency landing sites in Spain, Morocco and The Gambia. On September 11, 2001 he led an Air Force Emergency Team at the Pentagon.

    In his now quieter post-Air Force career, Dr. Neel has worked in San Antonio as a Specialist in Hyperbaric Medicine and wound care and as an Area Medical Director for a national company of occupational and urgent care clinics.

    Dr. Neel currently lives in Bulverde with his family and works with his former Air Force friend Dr. Best bringing healthcare to the community of Castroville and implementing the Health and Wellness Program.

    Make America Ordered Again (23f793)

  173. I have before, and I’m not going to spend a lot of time posting information to someone like you who isn’t open to persuasion.

    No, you’ve complained that the “system” won’t let you. Then you posted your screed on a NOT scientific NOT peer reviewed study, and the thing you posted specifically refutes your point, in the words.

    So when asked to provide ONE, your response was ZERO. Thank you.

    Now, kindly stop putting people’s lives at risk with your nonsense.

    Colonel Klink (Ret) (305827)

  174. “From 1998 until 2003, the Harvard educated Dr. Neel was on the team of chemical and biological weapons experts at the Pentagon….Dr. Neel served over 20 years as a Chief Flight Surgeon in the U.S. Air Force before his retirement as a Colonel”
    https://www.ktsa.com/area-doctor-offers-simple-suggestion-to-help-in-covid-19-recovery/

    At least some clear credentials….

    AJ_Liberty (165d19)

  175. I won’t get it into that here and will just let you emotionally react to it and express your opinions.

    The irony…!!! It burns…!!!

    Ragspierre (d9bec9)

  176. And yeah, that Richard Neel:

    One scientifically reputable study, ONE.

    Colonel Klink (Ret) (305827)

  177. Look, Colonel Klink, it’s been shown to help with other viruses, including SARS-CoV. Melatonin is also very safe; you have some in your body right now. It also happens to be the case that those with the highest levels of it (babies, young children, third-trimester pregnant women [there being a sharp rise in melatonin levels between the second and third trimester, to prepare offspring, with naive yet powerful immune systems, to face the world] and their fetuses) do the best when they catch COVID-19, so whether it helps or not, it’s very unlikely to hurt. And I’m suggesting literally the smallest dose of it you can even routinely buy.

    But don’t take it if you don’t want to for a mere couple months during this pandemic. I don’t really care. I believe people should have autonomy over what they put in their bodies and should be entitled to use their own judgment. That includes you, sir.

    Make America Ordered Again (23f793)

  178. Apparently, California was once fairly well prepared for this sort of pandemic.

    https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-03-27/coronavirus-california-mobile-hospitals-ventilators

    jeb2 (a5dc71)

  179. The study you linked to, identified 135 compounds, narrowed to 16, that may have impacts on some Coronavirus, not specifically CV-19, and none were actually tested against CV-19. Again, you lie, repeatedly and that repeatedly puts real lives at risk.

    In this study, we presented a network-based methodology for systematic identification of putative repurposable drugs and drug combinations for potential treatment of 2019-nCoV/SARS-CoV-2. Integration of drug–target networks, HCoV–host interactions, HCoV-induced transcriptome in human cell lines, and human protein–protein interactome network are essential for such identification. Based on comprehensive evaluation, we prioritized 16 candidate repurposable drugs (Fig. 5) and 3 potential drug combinations (Fig. 6) for targeting 2019-nCoV/SARS-CoV-2. However, although the majority of predictions have been validated by various literature data (Table 1), all network-predicted repurposable drugs and drug combinations must be validated in various 2019-nCoV/SARS-CoV-2 experimental assays64 and randomized clinical trials before being used in patients.

    We acknowledge several limitations in the current study. Although 2019-nCoV/SARS-CoV-2 shared high nucleotide sequence identity with other HCoVs (Fig. 2), our predictions are not 2019-nCoV/SARS-CoV-2 specific by lack of the known host proteins on 2019-nCoV/SARS-CoV-2. We used a low binding affinity value of 10 μM as a threshold to define a physical drug–target interaction. However, a stronger binding affinity threshold (e.g., 1 μM) may be a more suitable cut-off in drug discovery, although it will generate a smaller drug–target network. Although sizeable efforts were made for assembling large scale, experimentally reported drug–target networks from publicly available databases, the network data may be incomplete and some drug–target interactions may be functional associations, instead of physical bindings. For example, Silvestrol, a natural product from the flavagline, was found to have antiviral activity against Ebola75 and Coronaviruses76. After adding its target, an RNA helicase enzyme EIF4A76, silvestrol was predicted to be significantly associated with HCoVs (Z = –1.24, P = 0.041) by network proximity analysis. To increase coverage of drug–target networks, we may use computational approaches to systematically predict the drug-target interactions further25,26. In addition, the collected virus–host interactions are far from completeness and the quality can be influenced by multiple factors, including different experimental assays and human cell line models. We may computationally predict a new virus–host interactome for 2019-nCoV/SARS-CoV-2 using sequence-based and structure-based approaches77. Drug targets representing nodes within cellular networks are often intrinsically coupled with both therapeutic and adverse profiles78, as drugs can inhibit or activate protein functions (including antagonists vs. agonists). The current systems pharmacology model cannot separate therapeutic (antiviral) effects from those predictions due to lack of detailed pharmacological effects of drug targets and unknown functional consequences of virus–host interactions. Comprehensive identification of the virus–host interactome for 2019-nCoV/SARS-CoV-2, with specific biological effects using functional genomics assays79,80, will significantly improve the accuracy of the proposed network-based methodologies further.

    Owing to a lack of the complete drug-target information (such as the molecular “promiscuity” of drugs), the dose–response and dose–toxicity effects for both repurposable drugs and drug combinations cannot be identified in the current network models. For example, Mesalazine, an approved drug for inflammatory bowel disease, is a top network-predicted repurposable drug associated with HCoVs (Fig. 5a). Yet, several clinical studies showed the potential pulmonary toxicities (including pneumonia) associated with mesalazine usage81,82. Integration of lung-specific gene expression23 of 2019-nCoV/SARS-CoV-2 host proteins and physiologically based pharmacokinetic modeling83 may reduce side effects of repurposable drugs or drug combinations. Preclinical studies are warranted to evaluate in vivo efficiency and side effects before clinical trials. Furthermore, we only limited to predict pairwise drug combinations based on our previous network-based framework28. However, we expect that our methodology remain to be a useful network-based tool for prediction of combining multiple drugs toward exploring network relationships of multiple drugs’ targets with the HCoV–host subnetwork in the human interactome. Finally, we aimed to systematically identify repurposable drugs by specifically targeting nCoV host proteins only. Thus, our current network models cannot predict repurposable drugs from the existing anti-virus drugs that target virus proteins only. Thus, combination of the existing anti-virus drugs (such as remdesivir64) with the network-predicted repurposable drugs (Fig. 5) or drug combinations (Fig. 6) may improve coverage of current network-based methodologies by utilizing multi-layer network framework16.

    In conclusion, this study offers a powerful, integrative network-based systems pharmacology methodology for rapid identification of repurposable drugs and drug combinations for the potential treatment of 2019-nCoV/SARS-CoV-2. Our approach can minimize the translational gap between preclinical testing results and clinical outcomes, which is a significant problem in the rapid development of efficient treatment strategies for the emerging 2019-nCoV/SARS-CoV-2 outbreak. From a translational perspective, if broadly applied, the network tools developed here could help develop effective treatment strategies for other emerging viral infections and other human complex diseases as well.

    Colonel Klink (Ret) (305827)

  180. Putin would love it if a bunch of Americans poisoned themselves in a panic, after listening to Putin-paid trolls on the internet.

    Leviticus (28a6ca)

  181. Putin would love it if a bunch of Americans poisoned themselves in a panic, after listening to Putin-paid trolls on the internet.

    I don’t think you’re going to be able to accomplish that with 300 mcg of melatonin at night for two months.

    Make America Ordered Again (23f793)

  182. “so whether it helps or not, it’s very unlikely to hurt. And I’m suggesting literally the smallest dose of it you can even routinely buy.”

    – MAOA

    You might as well be suggesting echinacea, then. See, you can’t have echinacea without China, and this is a China Virus, but there are more letters in “echinacea” than “China,” so it’s more powerful than the China Virus and defeats it.

    What’s the big deal? It’s very unlikely to hurt!

    (Echinacea, that is. Chloroquine, not so much).

    Leviticus (28a6ca)

  183. Now that’s just flippant idiocy on your part, Leviticus.

    Make America Ordered Again (23f793)

  184. “ Nearly as insane was your assertion that this blog was behind Biden.”
    __ _

    I wouldn’t blame anyone who figured it was in the realm of possibilities:

    3/10/2020
    Biden Wins Michigan
    Filed under: General — Patterico @ 6:18 pm

    And Mississippi and Missouri.

    It’s over, folks.

    P.S. Drop out, Bernie.
    _

    harkin (b64479)

  185. Stop trying to gaslight people on this blog with fake medical advice and conspiracy theories, and I will stop mocking you.

    Leviticus (28a6ca)

  186. If I was in a generous mood, I would just assume you were an over-eager melatonin salesperson. But I am not in a generous mood.

    Leviticus (28a6ca)

  187. He’s been worse, Leviticus. Remember CFAP? The Canadian Foreskin Awareness Project? I know you were here then. I still don’t know which level of trolling it was — the insistent true believer or the practical joker just messing with us.

    nk (1d9030)

  188. I wouldn’t blame anyone who figured it was in the realm of possibilities:

    I hope that you WOULD, if that was all you had.

    I give you more credit.

    Ragspierre (d9bec9)

  189. Man, I saw that band live around a dozen times between ‘78 and ‘90. They were a lot of fun!

    I saw them in ’82 at Western Washington University in Bellingham. It was one of my favorite concerts. Surprisingly danceable.
    Mothersbaugh has had an interesting career.

    Paul Montagu (df60ed)

  190. From a different, happier time…

    https://youtu.be/eOjAzI5zALo

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  191. Saw Devo around 1979 at the Santa Monica Civic.

    Conjure up an image of 3,000 kids doing the pogo for over an hour.
    _

    harkin (b64479)

  192. Happier times…..

    Those girls’ harmonies were unreal. This one always sends me.

    https://youtu.be/r4qbZxzQ3Js

    Lol watching this reminds me of something an old gf pointed out; that Kate (for all her singing ability) had no ability to dance at all while Cindy oozed body rythym.
    _

    harkin (b64479)

  193. Just be careful out there…

    https://youtu.be/q0PBg_3iVBw

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  194. I saw Ike and Tina Turner with the Ikettes a few times back in the late 60s.

    I never realized what raw sexuality was until watching those girls. Ike always reminded me of an open straight razor.

    Ragspierre (d9bec9)

  195. They never said it was not transmitted human-to-human. They said there was no clear evidence that it was transmitted from human-to-human. As someone with scientific/technical background you should understand those are not the same thing.

    Except there WAS clear evidence, notably dead doctors.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  196. OK, there was also “Everyone who wants a test gets a test.”

    Someone probably told him that and it passed the Trumpian “I wanna believe” filter. But a lie? That would imply cognition, which you deny Trump is capable of. Obama’s “If you like your doctor…” thing, THAT was a lie.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  197. “Everyone who wants a test gets a test” He should have finished that sentence with a “Make it so!”

    Colliente (05736f)

  198. I’m wondering why we aren’t seeing more pushback on the unconstitutional and authoritarian actions being taken by our nation’s Governors. In Rhode Island, Die Geheime Staatspolizei wird Personen mit New Yorker Nummernschildern stoppen. Governor Gina Raimondo (NSDAP-RI) has ordered the state police to stop cars with New York license plates, and to knock on the doors of vacation homes to ‘talk’ to people to find out if they’ve been to the Empire State. In New Jersey, the police broke up a party, and Governor Phil Murphy (NSDAP-NJ) said that the party thrower would be criminally charged and fined, as though the First Amendment does not guarantee our rights to peaceably assemble.

    The left have called Donald Trump a fascist, but it hasn’t been President Trump assuming dictatorial powers over this emergency. Remember: the Reichstag fire was an ’emergency,’ too.

    The Dana in Kentucky (b7cfab)

  199. Colliente wrote:

    “Everyone who wants a test gets a test” He should have finished that sentence with a “Make it so!”

    I’d have preferred, “So let it be written, so let it be done.” Alas! That would simply point out that saying something is not the same as doing something, and we don’t always have the means to test everything or everyone.

    The Dana in Kentucky (b7cfab)

  200. “ But a lie? That would imply cognition, which you deny Trump is capable of.”

    – Kevin M

    And what do you think – that he is “capable of cognition,” or not?

    Leviticus (28a6ca)

  201. Yeah, well, I suffered from a rather nasty case of stomach flu last week. Have no idea how I contracted it, but it was brutal.

    Started feel nauseous Monday afternoon, so I ate a bowl of chicken noodle soup for dinner and went to bed early. Middle of the night, I jumped out of bed, ran into the bathroom and began throwing up. That’s what stomach flu makes you do, vomit and retch two or three times an hour, every hour. I was throwing up all day Tuesday. It was horrible.

    Stomach flu will kill you in just a few days. You can’t eat, can’t drink, can’t sleep; even simple water will have you throwing up in just a few minutes. No one can survive that for very long.

    Thankfully, there is readily available, over-the-counter medicine to treat stomach flu, Emetrol. My mother rushed to Walgreens and brought me some.

    Emetrol is like a syrup that comes in a bottle, with a little plastic cup over the cap and neck. The instructions are to drink one cup every fifteen minutes, until you stop throwing up. Of course, the first two or three cups will result in violent vomiting, because the virus is trying to eject the medicine, but eventually the medicine will win. Finally, the stomach flu subsided at around 6:00 PM, and I collapsed in exhaustion, weak, tired and weary, dehydrated, disoriented.

    I could barely get out of bed Wednesday, but I had to, because I needed to rehydrate. I tried to eat a turkey sandwich for dinner, but after three bites I felt like I was going to start throwing up again. So I drank a can of Sprite and resumed the Emetrol regiment for an hour, then went to bed.

    I could barely get out of bed Thursday too, but I needed to rehydrate. Still, I had to eat something, because I hadn’t had a meal of solid food for days. I was too tired to cook, so we opted for Long John Silver’s, because I didn’t want to try anything heavy. I ordered shrimp with fries and hushpuppies, and lemonade. That went down well. My mother ordered tacos. When I asked her how they were, she said, “They’re not as good as yours.” (This is the way she is. Anything I cook is better than take out.)

    Let me tell you something. I’d rather have coronavirus, even though there is no cure, only treatment, than stomach flu, despite the fact there is a cure. This disease wiped me out for three days, and I’m still feeling beaten down by it.

    Anyway, as to coronavirus, there are by latest count 28 confirmed cases, spread out over a number cities. The mayors have ordered the closing of nonessential businesses throughout the Rio Grande Valley, which covers an area larger than several small states combined.

    On Friday, I felt strong enough to drive, and I needed to replenish my supply of Marlboro Lights and Jack Daniel’s. Hey, don’t fault me for my vices, and I won’t fault you for yours. I’m a smoker, and whiskey is an apothecary.

    It was eerie, like driving around a ghost town. There were hardly any cars on the street. When I got to Murphy’s, which is a small convenience store/gas station in front of Wal-Mart that has the lowest prices in town, the clerk was wearing a surgical mask behind a plate glass window. I thought that was a bit ridiculous. Even if I or she had COVID-19, how could either of us infect the other? We’re not going to have any physical contact, and she’s behind a window. The pad to pay by credit/debit card is outside the window. I bought a carton of Marlboro Light, soft pack, shorts, and left.

    When I got to Holiday Wine and Liquor, it was equally strange. I have a friend who works there. I’m a Cowboys fan, she’s a Bears fan, but we both love football and often talk sports. There was hardly anyone in the store, but she said the day before it was packed. She explained the new protocol set by the shutdown. Every employee had to wear gloves, but not facemasks, and keep customers six feet apart. The store had installed this clear plastic shield with a window large enough for any bottle size, between the counter and the register, but again the pad for paying by credit/debit card is on the outside. I thought this was a bit ridiculous as well. Neither of us is going to have any physical contact, and a plastic shield window is hardly a hindrance, more an inconvenience.

    My friend said she was frustrated because the day before, when the store was packed, she explained the new protocol to every customer who came into the store, and none of them paid attention. I said, well, you can tell people what the rules are and how to behave all day long, doesn’t mean they’re going to listen to you. (I learned that when I was a teacher.) Then we talked about this insane offseason and all these bewildering free agent signings. I bought a liter and left.

    My mother hates this shutdown. She says it’s disrupting everyone’s business schedule and habits, making them all lazy. She’s one of those go-go-go girls, who will not stop. To her, work is life. She really believes that if she stops working, she will die. And she’s determined to live to be a hundred. 80 years old, she went through a biopsy, three months of chemotherapy, and a right breast mastectomy and underarm lymph node removal, when she came out of surgery, she was on her I-pad thirty minutes after. “I’ve got two new listings!”

    I drove her to those houses, because her arm was in a sling. Well, she took that off the next day. She’s like the Energizer Realtor, she just keeps going and going and going. A month of daily radiation treatments, and she just plows through it all. I’m like, mother, take some time off, rest, heal, recover, just give me the assignment and I’ll take care of it, I am a licensed realtor after all. But she won’t listen to me. She has to keep working, and she will not stop.

    She’s not afraid of coronavirus, because she truly believes that nothing can kill her, other than not working. That’s why she hates this shutdown. It’s interrupting her busy schedule.

    Gawain's Ghost (b25cd1)

  202. > How a governor can use an executive order to incarcerate people is unexplored, but the gloves are coming off and the State’s mailed fist is in the open.

    Not sure about New Mexico law, but California’s Health and Safety Code clearly authorizes *any measure deemed necessary by the public health authorities* during a pandemic, and compliance is enforceable by a fine or jail time.

    I strongly suspect that most, if not all, states have this kind of seldom used reserve authority.

    And it makes sense — consider what a frontier town would have needed to do to contain a measles or smallpox outbreak, and consider that the laws that were passed to deal with those situations have never been repealed.

    aphrael (7962af)

  203. > These overly generous unemployment benefits are going to destroy the warehouse and service industries

    maybe. on the other hand, the service industries were generally destroyed by the shelter in place orders and the workers who are required to comply with them will find themselves unable to pay rent or buy food in short order without the increase to unemployment benefits.

    at the end of the day, unless we’re going to lift the shelter in place orders, which we shouldn’t, it’s a choice between generous unemployment benefits and riots.

    aphrael (7962af)

  204. Dustin, at 70:

    Cuomo has made some bad mistakes in this but his leadership ability has been stunningly clear. And note that this comes from someone who *dislikes Cuomo* and who thinks the entire New York state political apparatus is corrupt.

    I feel the same way about DeWine without the loathing of the state establishment (not an endorsement of the state establishment there, just i don’t know enough to have an opinion, but DeWine has been doing a stellar job).

    aphrael (7962af)

  205. Various, regarding melatonin and covid-19: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0024320520303313 is a pre-publication journal article talking about research into the effect of melatonin on cytokine storms.

    This is of course not specific to covid-19 because nobody’s had time to do that kind of research, but it’s suggestive of potential, and at the moment “suggestive of potential” is the best anyone has.

    aphrael (7962af)

  206. Dana in Kentucky, at 201:

    i’m reasonably certain that short-term orders of this sort, taken during a pandemic, are consistent with the police power of states.

    aphrael (7962af)

  207. Gawain’s Ghost,

    I’m sorry you had such a violent bout of the flu. It sounds absolutely miserable. Patients who have survived coronavirus might disagree with your take about the flu being worse. Especially those that required venitlators. There is also possible permanent damage that can result in some coronavirus patients.

    With that, I’m glad you’re better, and here’s to yours and your mom’s good health.

    Dana (4fb37f)

  208. > possible permanent damage

    Note that it’s not currently possible to tell the difference between “permanent damage” and “damage which takes a year to repair”. we just haven’t had enough time to learn that.

    aphrael (7962af)

  209. I live in California, but I used to live in NYC, and I left part of my heart there when I moved back to California.

    My heart is breaking watching what’s happening there.

    aphrael (7962af)

  210. R.I.P. Joe Diffie, country music star (27 Top 40 Country hit singles), from Coronavirus

    Icy (6abb50)

  211. Our C-Virus crisis is dependent on exactly what the John McCain and Hillary Clintons worked so hard to build these past decades: an interdependent, hemispheric common market, an integrated world economy with integrated world populations that require constant back-and-forth travel between where they make their money and their actual homelands, a massive apparatus of journalist techno-scolds watching constantly for anybody who says anything negative about the situation or the people taking advantage of it, and a bunch of state-level bureaucrats who alternate between ripping off the central government for as much as they can get and crying to it for help when a real crisis comes that they could have easily prepared for themselves.

    “If we spread authority thin and wide enough among a select group we can get all the cool benefits of authority but none of the nasty costs or responsibilities! And this is the MORAL thing to do because ‘authoritarianism’ is a bad thing by definition!”

    And now they’re getting hit en masse by a Chinese pandemic (the fourth in two decades!)

    Nobel Laureates like Paul Krugman and ‘disease control’ experts at the CDC and especially the execrable WHO never wrote “negative externality” and “Chinese wet markets” in the same sentence prior to Trump forcing them to, and this is the strongest argument for ‘authoritarianism’ over ‘libertarianism’ that I have yet seen. But all of those libertarians, especially here, who whined about ‘free trade’ and ‘open markets’ and ‘open borders’ or ‘racist immigration controls’, or supported the people who did the same, all bear responsibility for continuing to double down on a terrible philosophy, simply because it was financially good and psychologically soothing for them at the time.

    You are here, WE are here, because you used your position to turn your personal problems with authority into national policy. Repent today, repent tomorrow, repent loudly, repent often. You have all the time at home in the world to get to at least Pat Buchanan levels of basic international disengagement in America’s best interest.

    Corona Jiangshi (8de00a)

  212. Thanks Steppe Nomad.

    Colonel Klink (Ret) (305827)

  213. But all of those libertarians, especially here, who whined about ‘free trade’ and ‘open markets’ and ‘open borders’ or ‘racist immigration controls’, or supported the people who did the same, all bear responsibility for continuing to double down on a terrible philosophy, simply because it was financially good and psychologically soothing for them at the time.

    I think you’ll find more conservatives here than libertarians. I’ve never heard anyone “whine” about what you claim, and certainly most of us were against “open borders” when Duh Donald was a big contributor to Deemocrats and supported the Gang Of Eight.

    Free trade and open markets are just what free people will do with their own property. It’s been the norm since my Viking ancestors plied the world to trade, enriching both their people and those they traded with. That is, it’s been the norm when people were allowed to own property and use it as they saw fit.

    As for Pat Bucanan, why would anyone want to be like that poor nutter?

    Ragspierre (d9bec9)

  214. Thanks, Dana.

    Stomach flu is not really a “flu” per se. The flu is a respiratory infection, caused by the influenza virus. Symptoms include coughing, sneezing, headaches, fever, and fatigue. Flu is a deadly disease, obviously, but there is a vaccine and multiple treatment options available, including over-the-counter medicines, which depending on the severity of the infection or the condition of the individual (age, overall health, etc.) can lead to a quick recovery. Oh, you’ll be miserable for a couple of days, to be sure. I know, I’ve had the flu before. This is not that.

    Gastroenteritis is an infection of the gastrointestinal tract, caused by any one of a number of things–various bacteria, contaminated food or water, etc. There is no one source of infection. Symptoms may be mild, such as nausea, diarrhea, bloody feces, or severe, such as uncontrollable, non-stop vomiting. I had a severe infection, but I have no idea how I contracted it.

    I did shake hands with the security guard at the bank as I walked in to deposit a check the Friday before, but I seriously doubt that he infected me. And I did stop by the corner store to fill gas and picked up a taco on the way out. Maybe that was it, a bad taco, but I doubt it, might as well have been a bad beer. It couldn’t have been anything I cooked at home, because my mother always eats with me and she didn’t get sick. It’s a mystery.

    Apparently, gastroenteritis is fairly common and widespread, otherwise Emetrol wouldn’t have been on the shelves for over 60 years. And this is what I’m talking about. There’s a disease infecting millions across the country. So scientists and medical professionals develop a medicine and make it readily available to the public, so people don’t have to go to a doctor to get a prescription, then go to a pharmacy to fill it. That’s how it was done, back in the day.

    Yes, the influenza outbreak in 1918 was horrific. It killed 50 million people in six months. But look at the response. Scientists and medical professionals rapidly developed medicines and then a vaccine. So now, even though the flu returns seasonally and does kill thousands every year, there are affordable treatments readily available that save lives and prevent a more deadly outbreak.

    Yet look at us today.

    https://reason.com/2020/03/17/trumps-tariffs-weakened-americas-hospitals-then-coronavirus-hit/

    Trump’s tariffs hamstrung hospitals in their ability to respond to a pandemic. It’s that simple. Medical professionals warned at the time that the tariffs imposed would limit the availability of necessary, even critical medical supplies.

    Worse, Trump eliminated the specialized group within the NSC Obama created to coordinate responses to a pandemic or bioweapon attack. Now, I’m no fan of Obama, and I disagreed with just about everything he said or did, almost all of his policies, except this one. I have been saying for decades that the greatest threat to America was the outbreak of a pandemic disease. I read King’s The Stand, and it scared the hell out of me. So setting up a specialized group to deal with a pandemic was smart, prescient and forward-thinking. I will give Obama credit for that, because I would have done the same, first day of office, and I am shocked that there isn’t to this day a cabinet post for the director of a department of pandemic disease, call it the CPD, working in conjunction with the CDC and NSC.

    Even worse, when medical professionals and specialists within his own administration warned him about the threat of a coronavirus outbreak in early January, Trump ignored them. He dismissed the threat, downplayed the disease, then criticized previous administrations and current governors.

    On that cue, top trade advisor Lighthizer ran out to defend the tariffs, which he pushed for.

    https://reason.com/2020/03/24/trumps-top-trade-official-says-china-tariffs-didnt-harm-coronavirus-preparedness-dont-buy-his-spin/

    By saying that eliminating tariffs on some but not all medical supplies, he’s admitting that the tariffs were the problem to begin with. But he won’t say that. Neither will Trump nor Navarro.

    Their policies weakened hospitals, reduced access to necessary medical supplies, and now that there is an actual pandemic, the entire country is woefully unprepared and unable to successfully contain or cure it.

    It’s like they’re saying, we created this problem, but now we’re rushing out to solve it. If Obama had done his job. If Cuomo had done his job. We wouldn’t be in this mess to begin with. Might Trump is here to save the day!

    Yeah, well, let’s look at how his solution to the problem he created will work out.

    https://reason.com/2020/03/23/we-will-regret-not-taking-the-economic-effects-of-mass-quarantine-more-seriously/

    You cannot cure a health care problem with a wasteful stimulus package. Especially not when the largest beneficiaries are corporations and airlines.

    Many small businesses once closed will not be able to reopen. Many jobs once lost cannot be returned to. We’re looking at the cancellation of an entire sporting season here–baseball, basketball, hockey, football, not only at the pro but at the collegiate and high school level as well. Hotels and restaurants might as well kiss their asses goodbye.

    You can call it COVID-19, you can call it the Hunan virus, you can call it the Chinese flu, you can call it whatever you want. Just don’t call it what it is–the Drumpf plague.

    Gawain's Ghost (b25cd1)

  215. aphraek wrote:

    i’m reasonably certain that short-term orders of this sort, taken during a pandemic, are consistent with the police power of states.

    So, the police power of the state can violate our constitutional rights, as long as it is “short-term”? Define short-term, please. We’re already seeing orders for business closures which exceed a month.

    The Dana in Kentucky (fd0d45)

  216. So, the police power of the state can violate our constitutional rights, as long as it is “short-term”?

    “Short-term” isn’t the test, but yes. States and other civil authorities have “plenary power” in emergencies.

    Ragspierre (d9bec9)

  217. So, the police power of the state can violate our constitutional rights, as long as it is “short-term”? Define short-term, please. We’re already seeing orders for business closures which exceed a month.

    Yes, as was interning the Japanese heritage citizens, quarantining in the past. This isn’t new, these have been powers that are invokable since the nation was founded. Some of them may require local support at the state level, but enforced quarantine is absolutely within the power of the evil “gub’mint”.

    But it’s nice to know you think Constitutional limits are important today, I don’t think that was your attitude a few months ago.

    Colonel Klink (Ret) (305827)

  218. Anybody can do anything you let him do. Libertarians like to argue that the Constitution does not grant rights — that rights proceed from Nature and the Constitution only acknowledges them. And Nature says: Brrrrrrrt!😛

    nk (1d9030)

  219. You can call it COVID-19, you can call it the Hunan virus, you can call it the Chinese flu, you can call it whatever you want.

    But you doesn’t has to call it Johnson!

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  220. and protect the SOTH.

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  221. Col., did you suddenly realize halfway into the prayer you also lived thisclose to the San Andreas fault?

    Come to think of it, Gov. Whitmer does share a slight but unfortunate resemblance to San Fran Nan – that explains a lot!

    urbanleftbehind (47edcb)

  222. Not that close, ulb. But close enough.

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)


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