Trump’s Approval Rating Goes Up
[guest post by Dana]
It’s not unusual for a sitting president’s overall approval rating to go up during a national crisis, and Trump, surprisingly, is no exception:
Forty-nine percent of U.S. adults, up from 44% earlier this month, approve of the job Trump is doing as president. Trump also had 49% job approval ratings — the best of his presidency — in late January and early February around the time of the Senate impeachment trial that resulted in his acquittal.
It’s hard to wrap my head around this, given Trump’s efforts to downplay the seriousness of the virus outbreak, as well as being slow to act in combatting it:
Trump’s response to the novel coronavirus pandemic may be behind his higher overall approval rating. Americans give the president generally positive reviews for his handling of the situation, with 60% approving and 38% disapproving. Ninety-four percent of Republicans, 60% of independents and 27% of Democrats approve of his response.
Who are these Americans?
-Dana
Hello.
Dana (4fb37f) — 3/25/2020 @ 11:57 amSlow to combat it? We were the first nation with Australia to ban travel from china. What did you expect him to do shut down the entire nation in January during impeachment? You would have roasted him then as trying to deflect it….there is no winning with you haters.
Kevin Nash (cef076) — 3/25/2020 @ 11:59 am“Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want and deserve to get it good and hard.” – H.L. Mencken
Dave (1bb933) — 3/25/2020 @ 12:10 pmStupid is as stupid does.
We see why all over the internet. Trump supporters deflect and cannot process negative news about Trump. A constant stream of ‘that’s fake news’ has Hannitized them. So they interpret the truth as a defense of China or democrats. To a lot of the 49% ‘either you’re with Trump or you’re lying to help China’.
This is more serious than the crisis that shot Bush 43 to the 90%s…
And as sad as this is, Trump’s pandemic will cost him a disproportionate number of voters. Some will die trusting that this was just a common cold, bitter that poor Trump gave up billions to be president and is such a hero he better get some of that slush fund.
Dustin (b18b7a) — 3/25/2020 @ 12:17 pm“Who are these Americans?”
– Dana
“I don’t know a single person who voted for him!”
– Pauline Kael
Colonel Haiku (2601c0) — 3/25/2020 @ 12:25 pmIt may have something to do with the fact that in the last two weeks at least, Trump seems to heeding the experts and thinking his role should be Optimist in Chief.
Also remember that we have a stock market that acts like a drunken monkey steering for a crew of inebriated baboons: dramatically down, then dramatically up even though the fundamental situation remains constant. [Did anyone ever doubt the number of cases would not rise, and that the politicians would agree to spend massive amounts that don’t actually exist?]
Kishnevi (7eee2b) — 3/25/2020 @ 12:38 pmI was thinking the exact same thing.
Make America Ordered Again (23f793) — 3/25/2020 @ 12:40 pmWho are these Americans?
Healthy, well… and well-insured.
DCSCA (797bc0) — 3/25/2020 @ 1:01 pmWe’ll see what happens.
Dave (1bb933) — 3/25/2020 @ 1:01 pmDustin (b18b7a) — 3/25/2020 @ 12:17 pm
This has a lot to do with where you are looking. The inability to process information that is inconsistent with a person’s view of reality is common to all people. Whether it’s the belief bias, the bias blind spot (it’s working double/triple duty in this conversation), simple confirmation bias, etc.
I’ve noticed a number of opinion articles about Trump supporters being in denial about covid. This isn’t limited to Trump supporters but these articles certainly make non-Trump supporters feel better about themselves even while they are probably in denial about covid.
frosty (f27e97) — 3/25/2020 @ 1:01 pmThe idea that one’s opponent’s (potentially war) propaganda has to be fake and one’s own propaganda can be trusted is, I feel, naive and ahistorical.
It might be a great quality to facilitate winning, however.
Make America Ordered Again (23f793) — 3/25/2020 @ 1:03 pm“Who are these Americans?”
Apart from the cultists, who comprise the largest proportion of that “60% of Republicans,” and would support Trump if he signed an executive order declaring Christmas “Trump Day,” I would guess the rest of “those Americans” would be people who sincerely agree with Trump’s “downplaying” of this Pandemic that Ate a Planet.
Though Trump’s motives in all actions are primarily stupidity and vanity, the fact is that his gut-response on this particular issue may turn out in the long run to have been the shining moment — the first and probably last one — of his presidency. He refused to panic and tell everyone the sky is falling and that only an ever-expanding progressive authoritarian government (“This is tyranny, but it’s For Your Own Good, don’t you know”) can solve this “unprecedented catastrophe.”
Furthermore, when most people, including those who get (or will get) this virus, are not seriously ill, many of them — especially the ones who choose not to spend their days caught up in the news media’s “cycle” — are more concerned about the socio-economic effects of the response to this minor crisis than about the virus itself.
For many (most?) people, losing their jobs, having their small businesses collapse, and seeing their life savings and financial plans wither to dust, are pretty serious side effects of what is likely to appear, in the final analysis, like a nastier-than-usual flu season. (So far, media hype and government exploitation aside, the real numbers on this thing are a mere blip on the annual flu infections and flu deaths radar. The hospitals are not overloaded because everyone is dying, but because we don’t usually occupy hospital beds with everyone who tests positive for a virus.)
Of course, none of that will stop Trump from signing a “stimulus package” bigger than the total amount of U.S. cash currently in the world, because he loves signing stuff and taking credit for it.
Daren Jonescu (ad8e67) — 3/25/2020 @ 1:08 pmIf a really annoying and ill-tempered guy walks into the room, about the dumbest thing you can do is point out to everyone how ugly in the face he is. People will know if he is truly ugly; they can see that for themselves. But by pointing it out you make yourself look oafish while allowing people to feel a little bit of sympathy for the ugly and ill-tempered guy. Plus, people start questioning the various blemishes and imperfections of your own visage.
This seems like such and obvious and easy lesson to learn, yet Democrats have proven themselves to be far too stupid to get it. It very well may cost them another Trump term.
JVW (54fd0b) — 3/25/2020 @ 1:23 pmDaren,
Interesting perspective. I don’t agree… I actually think this was something worthy of a really drastic and much earlier reaction, but you make an interesting point.
Obviously you’re right about the stimulus folly. Our economy was already a bubble from insane spending. We’re propping up folks who should have learned to take care of themselves in 2008 (by not getting a handout then).
Dustin (b18b7a) — 3/25/2020 @ 1:29 pmThis is the cognitive bias, yes, but presented as ‘hey not just Trump supporters’ comes across as a shining example of the real problem here. Trump supporters have done a lot more damage than they will admit. When they must admit it, they will pretend they never were Trump supporters.
Dustin (b18b7a) — 3/25/2020 @ 1:31 pmDustin (b18b7a) — 3/25/2020 @ 1:31 pm
Bias blind spot
How about when it’s presented as “hey Dustin, you’re letting your biases get the better of you and implying a lot of things are exclusive to one group of people that aren’t”.
frosty (f27e97) — 3/25/2020 @ 1:45 pmThese are americans who do not have trump derangement syndrome. Over at democratic undergrand and jackpine radicals they hate trump so bad they are denouncing hydrocloroquine as a treatment because trump suggested it! They would rather people die then give trump a victory!
rota (f884ea) — 3/25/2020 @ 1:47 pmI could never get Baracula’s ratings, either. Or Clinton’s.
As I observed in 2015, “We’ve twice elected a lying, Collectivist, narcissistic as$hole. Maybe it’s a trend”.
Ragspierre (d9bec9) — 3/25/2020 @ 1:48 pmSlow to act? Dang me, it must have been a racist xenophobe who shut down travel from China at the end January–instead of Trump.
Skeptical Voter (613a87) — 3/25/2020 @ 1:49 pmWell technically this is not true.
To many Trump fans, if you aren’t in the 49% you are crazy… and to some folks, they must work every day to explain that Trump criticism is really irrational. Frosty does this here, for example. But it’s not. And that is deranged. The folks showing derangement with Trump are the ones who still support him.
Dustin (b18b7a) — 3/25/2020 @ 1:50 pmI wish main street could beat the schiff out of wall street.
mg (8cbc69) — 3/25/2020 @ 1:52 pmBarack was propped up a lot by economic recovery, but also by Americans opposing racism. Even if you don’t like Obama, Trump screeching that he’s from Kenya, over and over and over, and David Duke and the KKK endorsing Trump… it is hard for a democrat to turn away from their Team D guy in those conditions.
I mean, imagine Trump were subject to unfair criticism (which really hasn’t happened… he is an appalling sexually abusive fraudster who enjoys harming others and cheating). That would encourage otherwise uninterested Republicans to rally behind him… instead the folks rallying around Trump are generally the Gateway Pundit/ Stormfront guys who really had a problem with how African Obama probably was in secret.
I wish there was something more intellectual going on, but there isn’t… not with Trump support.
Dustin (b18b7a) — 3/25/2020 @ 1:55 pmYou may disagree with Trump, and I am probably not alone in being put off by his manner and odd priorities, but it’s obvious he understands the gravity of the situation and is doing the best he can. Such as that is.
Among the things he understands, which would be clear even to a sociopath, is that his political future is tied up in this. If he screws it up and a lot of people die unnecessarily*, he might as well give up the campaign. OTOH, if all the doom and gloom fails to come to pass he will benefit, despite his hard-core detractors saying it “just happened” or was hyped by Trump to begin with.
———–
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 3/25/2020 @ 1:55 pm* some people who get this WILL die. Medical science can keep people going in the most fragile conditions, but any serious addition to their ailments will be catastrophic.
Trump’s pandemic
Really?! That’s a bit harsh. Why isn’t it China’s pandemic? It is at least as valid.
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 3/25/2020 @ 1:58 pmHealthy, well… and well-insured.
But but but … your hero Obama made is so that even the poorest could get good insurance, right? $100/month and $3 co-pays for CAT scans? What went wrong with that? Was it all a lie?
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 3/25/2020 @ 2:00 pmDustin (b18b7a) — 3/25/2020 @ 1:50 pm
You are exaggerating and it is a lie. You know it is a lie. I’ve never called all Trump criticism irrational or crazy but you’re now calling me deranged. You are lying because it’s the only response you’ve got when I point out the faults in some of your arguments.
I don’t participate in the 2 minutes of hate that has become constant performance art. But I have consistently said that criticism of Trump is valid.
frosty (f27e97) — 3/25/2020 @ 2:01 pmWho are these people?
https://hotair.com/archives/ed-morrissey/2020/03/18/cuomo-know-whos-good-job-nys-covid-19-outbreak-trump/
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 3/25/2020 @ 2:02 pmYou may disagree with Trump, and I am probably not alone in being put off by his manner and odd priorities, but it’s obvious he understands the gravity of the situation and is doing the best he can. Such as that is.
This is not at all clear from his public statements.
Great image at the linked site.
February 23rd: Speaking to reporters on the White House lawn: “We have it very much under control in this country.”
February 27th: “It’s going to disappear,” Trump said at the White House. “One day — it’s like a miracle — it will disappear.”
March 4th: In an interview with Sean Hannity, Trump calls the WHO’s estimate of the global death rate “false,” describes the coronavirus as “very mild,” and suggests that those infected can get better by “sitting around” and “going to work.”
March 9th: Trump bashes Democrats for sounding the alarm “far beyond what the facts would warrant” before implying that the common flu is far worse, an argument he’s made on several occasions.
Time123 (89dfb2) — 3/25/2020 @ 2:04 pmI often disagree with frosty on this site and I can’t think of time he’s been less than fair with me or my ideas. In case a character witness is useful.
Time123 (89dfb2) — 3/25/2020 @ 2:05 pmBlaming Trump that this happened is Dumb.
Time123 (89dfb2) — 3/25/2020 @ 2:06 pmHolding him accountable for what he’s done wrong is fair.
May you continue to call it what it is, Frosty!
Colonel Haiku (2601c0) — 3/25/2020 @ 2:07 pmBlaming Trump that this happened is Dumb.
Dumb with a capital “D”.
Colonel Haiku (2601c0) — 3/25/2020 @ 2:09 pmIt’s like saying Bush’s 9/11. It’s moronic.
Colonel Haiku (2601c0) — 3/25/2020 @ 2:10 pmThe China Flu.
mg (8cbc69) — 3/25/2020 @ 2:13 pmTime123 (89dfb2) — 3/25/2020 @ 2:04 pm
I’ll give the 2 minutes of hate a try:
This was bulls***. Plan A was to act like it wasn’t a big deal. That didn’t work. It may turn out that we fair better than Italy but “under control” is not accurate.
This was bulls***. Pie in the sky bulls***.
Well, WHO’s estimate is false but this is still bulls*** for multiple reasons.
I’m tired of this already. I couldn’t keep it up for the full 2 minutes but this is bulls*** too.
frosty (f27e97) — 3/25/2020 @ 2:13 pmRight, now if you want to say “Trump’s terrible coronavirus response.” that’s fair.
Time123 (89dfb2) — 3/25/2020 @ 2:13 pm33… can I assume that wasn’t difficult to do, mg?
That darn Biden is The Gift What Keeps on Giving… https://twitter.com/jason_howerton/status/1242873804239572994
Colonel Haiku (2601c0) — 3/25/2020 @ 2:17 pmBIDEN: “The president’s numbers with the public have gone up in handling this crisis, but they haven’t gone up in terms of his presidency.”
*awkward silence*
REPORTER: Actually, his job approval is also up.
BIDEN: “Well, I hope that he’s so strong that he’s up way above that.”
Colonel Haiku (2601c0) — 3/25/2020 @ 2:18 pmI still say Trump’s actions and his administration is “fine” like B or B-.
It could’ve been handled better from the get go for sure, but you have to give credit that this administration is adapting to the situation rationally.
That’s really all you can ask for imo.
whembly (fd57f6) — 3/25/2020 @ 2:20 pmThat doesn’t explain why 60% of Independent voters approve of Trump’s handing of the crisis.
Chuck Bartowski (6fff93) — 3/25/2020 @ 2:20 pm38… But…but… he’s trying to show optimism and give Americans hope. That is wrong in soooo many ways.
Colonel Haiku (2601c0) — 3/25/2020 @ 2:26 pmI wonder if the China politburo has had family members die? If so how long will they put up with the mishandling of the China Flu by Xi?
mg (8cbc69) — 3/25/2020 @ 2:31 pmTime123 (89dfb2) — 3/25/2020 @ 2:13 pm
I don’t disagree with that but this is where I get in trouble. I don’t think his response has been good. If I call it that can we have a real conversation about a good response?
This is sort of rhetorical and I mean we in a more general sense. You and I have tried in another thread and I thought it was a good back and forth. I don’t think that’s a common thing especially between someone like you and me, i.e. people who aren’t already totally aligned.
I didn’t expect it but I think Cuomo has responded well. There are times when I’m watching and I laugh a little. He makes some comments that if made by Trump they’d be ripped apart. Trump wouldn’t be allowed to give a Cuomo style press conference even if he were capable or inclined to it. I don’t agree with everything he says but I think from a crisis communications standpoint he has done a better job than I expected.
frosty (f27e97) — 3/25/2020 @ 2:32 pmThe Pauline Kael quote is actually pretty apt wrt Trump.
I used to live in Los Angeles, and you’d never hear anyone speak favorably of Trump. At best they might allow how Hillary was no prize either. A friend of mine, who libes in Santa Monica recently opined that “nobody in this town favored Trump” at which point I showed him that, in fact about a third of Santa Monica voters voted for Trump. He couldn’t believe it, and why, he asked, did no one ever say they did? At which point I rolled my eyes.
Now, I live in a purplish state where Trump intends to campaign. People here will actually say they like what Trump has been doing. Out loud. Which, coming from California seems so, well, strange.
So, like Pauline, people may be surprised that Trump has support mostly because their bubble, and who they allow in it, isn’t very diverse.
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 3/25/2020 @ 2:33 pmmg (8cbc69) — 3/25/2020 @ 2:31 pm
Any thoughts on the analysis of the China telecom consumer stats?
frosty (f27e97) — 3/25/2020 @ 2:35 pmI didn’t expect it but I think Cuomo has responded well.
Yes and no. He’s expecting rather a lot from the federal government that he won’t get, in terms of dollars. HE IS getting quite a bit of in-kind assistance.
The prize-winner though was Gavin Newsom, who asked for $1 trillion in federal aid for California alone.
A trillion here, a trillion there, and pretty soon it adds up to real money, to paraphrase Everett Dirksen.
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 3/25/2020 @ 2:37 pm@13:
True. And “propping them up” also has the benefit of making them feel that could not “take care of themselves,” which is essentially the defining mechanism of soft despotism, as Tocqueville warned when he created that term.
The federal government has one legitimate authority — as distinguished from powers on the books but illegitimate — that it could have used earlier, I suppose, which is the power to seal the borders to keep virus-carriers out. It probably would have failed, since of course the nature of such viruses is to be around for a while before anyone knows they exist. Beyond that, I believe we are watching a crisis not being allowed to go to waste, as it were.
Daren Jonescu (2f5857) — 3/25/2020 @ 2:37 pmI think Trump’s administration would be seen as doing a far better job if Trump would just stay in the Residence and STFU. He’s the kind of guy who you don’t want arguing for your side.
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 3/25/2020 @ 2:39 pm@13 again:
And Trump was a supporter of the 2008 bailouts, praised Obama’s handling of the situation in early 2009, and even said (on Larry King) that he would be willing to support nationalizing the banks if that should prove necessary to keep the system running.
That’s why the McConnell establishment chose and protected him in 2016. They knew they had exactly the kind of vainglorious ignoramus they could use as cover for their own duplicitous power-grabs. We’re seeing the fruit of that now.
Daren Jonescu (2f5857) — 3/25/2020 @ 2:43 pmI used to live in Los Angeles, and you’d never hear anyone speak favorably of Trump.
Unless you worked in ad sales at NBC.
DCSCA (797bc0) — 3/25/2020 @ 2:46 pmWe’re propping up folks who should have learned to take care of themselves in 2008 (by not getting a handout then).
This is basically an insurance problem. Normally, a business will insure against disaster. Fire, liability, theft, etc. Anything unexpected that could bring the company down. But some things you just cannot insure against, either because no one will write the policy, or because no company is credible to write one.
Mostly these are things where widespread disasters would cause a global payout, and bankrupt the insurer long before all claims are settled. Wars and riots, for example. Private earthquake insurance mostly ended after the 90’s when many California insurers got wiped out. Some day Florida will be hit by a tsunami and flood insurance will get sticky.
This is no different — a pandemic hurts everyone at once. In times like these, the government is the insurer of last resort. I think that most of these payouts are low-interest loans. And right about now, low-interest isn’t all that much of a big deal.
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 3/25/2020 @ 2:47 pmTrue. This is a crisis that most don’t understand, and during a crisis, good people give others the benefit of the doubt. They assume the cop, the doctor, the insurance phone line person, they are all really going above and beyond. After the Iranians seized our embassy in 1979, Jimmy Carter’s approval went from 32 to 61% even though he actually didn’t accomplish anything and arguably made matters worse. President Carter’s supporters explained this proved the American people had “Growing admiration and respect” for how Carter handled the conflict, but the truth is, they were just taking the USA’s side against Iran. As soon as Reagan was an option, they took his side.
This happened after 9/11, Pearl Harbor, the Cuban Missile Crisis, the North Korean invasion. If you want to know why Trump and his spambots want this to be about the USA vs China, it’s all about this poll. Trump must get everyone to think “China” when they think of the virus. It is the only way to deflect from how he handled this emergency in January and February, when we probably had a chance to avoid this economic catastrophe.
If independent voters perceive this as China attacking the USA, they will rally around even the worst president. I think most people just don’t know what to think and are following the same pattern.
Dustin (b18b7a) — 3/25/2020 @ 2:48 pmWas it all a lie?
Reaganomics.
DCSCA (797bc0) — 3/25/2020 @ 2:48 pmThis kind of thing is why Sanders had a shot. If I lose my job, stop paying for my car, my house, I lose them. I won’t be able to afford health care. I don’t get Dan Patrick hoping someone sacrifices their family to help me. I was supposed to have 6 months of expenses saved. I was supposed to keep my debts under control so I could handle a bump in the road.
But the literal billionaires… they don’t think their billions are for bailing their corporations or banks out. They think our deficit is for that. And my kids, their kids, they have to pay that back and also live in a less stable economy where the stock market is exciting and skyrocketing or crashing all the time. Of course, it’s the billionaires and their Senators and President who know a little ahead of the rest of us when the stocks are going to jump or fall, so even then, the rest of us keep getting the short end.
The GOP should be about supporting economic success. This isn’t that. This is two identical political parties cheating society, bleeding it dry, leaving us unready.
I don’t want the government running businesses or getting stock for bailouts. I don’t want the businesses to fail. So we have a bit of a parenting problem where we shouldn’t have spoiled them last crisis, shouldn’t spoil them this crisis, and hopefully they don’t reach crisis next time.
Dustin (b18b7a) — 3/25/2020 @ 2:55 pmKevin M (ab1c11) — 3/25/2020 @ 2:39 pm
This isn’t really possible though. For better or worse he’s got to be out there. He can’t claim to be a wartime president and then sit back and let Pence run the show. I don’t really like the wartime president thing but my point stands even without that. This is a very serious issue.
He just needs to be better and some of it is easy. I saw a presser the other day where he made some comments and then stepped back to let someone else have the podium. He looked like a chump standing there. It was obvious he was trying to find a presidential stance when the joke is there isn’t one. He should have said his peace, taken some questions, turned it over to whoever and left. The whole time I was thinking don’t you have something better to do and if you don’t you should.
frosty (f27e97) — 3/25/2020 @ 2:55 pmCuomo presents well but the week long squabble between him and de Blasio where de Blasio was calling for shelter in place and Cuomo was refusing was *terrible* and likely caused tens of thousands of avoidable infections.
aphrael (7962af) — 3/25/2020 @ 2:56 pmWe’re propping up folks who should have learned to take care of themselves in 2008 (by not getting a handout then).
S&Ls, automakers, banks, airlines– choose the industry: deregulate then; bailouts now.
Reaganomics.
And it’s going to continue over and over until, like Osama, like Hussein; like coronaviruses and crab grass: supply-side economics ends. Kill it.
DCSCA (797bc0) — 3/25/2020 @ 2:56 pmWhembly — his administration is adapting, yes.
Trump himself is tweeting about how the reason the media wants businesses shut down is so that the economy will be a drag on his re-election.
That kind of nonsense is massively harmful.
And yes, it’s nonsense. I’d buy that the media wants him not re-elected. But the people who want businesses shut down are looking at incredibly grim projections if they aren’t and are reacting to those projections, Trump or no Trump. They’d be demanding the same things if Clinton were President.
aphrael (7962af) — 3/25/2020 @ 2:57 pm@57
I don’t disagree. It’s fair to criticize some of Trump’s tweet.
whembly (fd57f6) — 3/25/2020 @ 3:03 pmIf you were to buy a T-bill today, you’d be getting negative interest. “You’ll lose money for sure, but not a lot and not very fast.”
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 3/25/2020 @ 3:03 pm*@58
phat phingers…
whembly (fd57f6) — 3/25/2020 @ 3:03 pmIf I lose my job, stop paying for my car, my house, I lose them.
You could insure against that, you know. It’s just that some things that happen to everyone at once are uninsurable because no insurance company can pay all the policies at once. It’s why California offers earthquake insurance and private insurers stopped (and if there is a major quake, I guarantee you they don’t have the money in the bank).
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 3/25/2020 @ 3:08 pm“It’s hard not to be happy with the job we’re doing.” – President Donald J. Trump 3/25/2020
And Putin smiled…
DCSCA (797bc0) — 3/25/2020 @ 3:09 pmDoes anyone know what happened to the travel insurance companies? Right after the event cancellations started, they were refusing to pay (you could still GO there, after all). Mainly because they would have to pay all the policies at once. Has this changed? Most airlines are still refusing to refund money, but will allow you to postpone travel for free.
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 3/25/2020 @ 3:11 pmI wonder how much of Trump’s uptick relates to Biden’s recent interviews and live streams. I think it was the recent msnbc one where he couldn’t make it through complete sentences.
How many Biden supporters are actually just waiting for a player to be named later?
frosty (f27e97) — 3/25/2020 @ 3:11 pm@60. Gold: $1,641.90+8.50 (+0.52%) at Wed, Mar 25, 2020, 6:00PM EDT – U.S. markets closed.
🙂
DCSCA (797bc0) — 3/25/2020 @ 3:11 pmfrosty, apparently the betting markets now think it’s more likely that dems will draft cuomo than that sanders will win.
aphrael (7962af) — 3/25/2020 @ 3:14 pmHere’s a travel insurance company that is not offering a payout on the policy, but is offering to give you free travel insurance on some future trip in compensation for their refusal to honor the policy you previously bought.
https://www.generalitravelinsurance.com/position-statements/coronavirus.html
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 3/25/2020 @ 3:15 pmWho are these Americans?
-Dana
After 5 years watching President Trump work for the People, the self anointed still have no idea about the People that populate this great nation.
Iowan2 (bbb95d) — 3/25/2020 @ 3:17 pmIt bears repeating that this problem is so big that the insurance companies would go under if they insured it.
aphrael (7962af) — 3/25/2020 @ 3:19 pmZeke Miller
@ZekeJMiller
Trump says backed Abe’s call to postpone Olympics: I think it’s going to be a fantastic Olympics. I told him I’m going to be there
__ _
Stephen L. Miller
@redsteeze
Trump peddles unsubstantiated hope in Japan’s Olympics
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Bourbon For One
@bourbonforone
·
Nah. The headline is “Trump isn’t fit to lead because he’s focusing on 2021: by Jen Rubin”
__ _
Blake Shaw
@BlakeShaw4
·
Having seen the president say this, I just tried to pole vault over my fence and now my leg is broken because of him and his misguided mindset.
__ _
Jonaryes Stan
harkin (b64479) — 3/25/2020 @ 3:21 pm@JonaryesStan
·
impeach!!!
_
“We make the best medical equipment in the world.” – President Donald J. Trump, 3/25/2020
What are the Top 15 Medical Device Companies in the World?
The industry has again shown strong growth in 2018 with worldwide revenue now exceeding 433 Billion US Dollars, and projected to continue to grow strongly fueled by ageing population and a worldwide growth in consumer spending power. Here is a list of top 15 world’s largest medical device companies based on 2018 revenue. Last Updated: October 2019
B Braun (Germany)
2018 Revenue: $7.90 billion
Number of Employees: 63,750
Revenue per Employee: $124,000
14. Zimmer Biomet (US)
2018 Revenue: $7.93 billion
Number of Employees: 18,200
Revenue per Employee: $435,000
13. Essilor International (France)
2018 Revenue: $8.53 billion
Number of Employees: 69,000
Revenue per Employee: $123,000
12. Danaher Corp. (US)
2018 Revenue: $9.10 billion
Number of Employees: 68,000
Revenue per Employee: $133,000
11. Boston Scientific Corp (US)
2018 Revenue: $9.82 billion
Number of Employees: 29,000
Revenue per Employee: $338,000
10. Baxter (US)
2018 Revenue: $11.12 billion
Number of Employees: 48,000
Revenue per Employee: $231,000
9. Stryker Corp (US)
2018 Revenue: $13.60 billion
Number of Employees: 33,000
Revenue per Employee: $412,0008. Siemens Healthineers (Germany)
2018 Revenue: $15.58 billion
Number of Employees: 48,000
Revenue per Employee: $320,000
7. Cardinal Health Inc (US)
2018 Revenue: $15.58 billion
Number of Employees: 50,000
Revenue per Employee: $312,000
6. Becton Dickinson & Company (BD) (US)
2018 Revenue: $15.98 billion
Number of Employees: 76,000
Revenue per Employee: $210,000
5. Koninklijke Philips NV (Netherlands)
2018 Revenue: $16.09 billion
Number of Employees: 77,400
Revenue per Employee: $267,000
4. Abbott Laboratories (US)
2018 Revenue: $18.93 billion
Number of Employees: 103,000
Revenue per Employee: $183,000
3. GE Healthcare (UK)
2018 Revenue: $19.78 billion
Number of Employees: 50,000
Revenue per Employee: $396,000
2. Johnson & Johnson (US)
2018 Revenue: $26.99 billion
Number of Employees: 134,000
Revenue per Employee: $201,000
1. Medtronic (Ireland)
2018 Revenue: $30.56 billion
Number of Employees: 98,000
Revenue per Employee: $305,000
source- http://www.getreskilled.com
DCSCA (797bc0) — 3/25/2020 @ 3:27 pm^ postscript to #72 list:
8. Siemens Healthineers (Germany)
DCSCA (797bc0) — 3/25/2020 @ 3:31 pm2018 Revenue: $15.58 billion
Number of Employees: 48,000
Revenue per Employee: $320,000
“How many Biden supporters are actually just waiting for a player to be named later?”
_
I’m waiting for Hillary to make a move on the ticket as VP. ‘The most qualified person ever…..ready to take the helm!’’
As I said earlier if they won the general she’d be president faster than John Tyler.
There’s no way I would want it, we dodged that bullet already. But the civil war with the Bernie Bro’s over keeping Simulated Joe as nominee would not be boring.
And if Warren made a play for it, after the Clinton machine was done she’d just be a greasy spot.
harkin (b64479) — 3/25/2020 @ 3:31 pmaphrael (7962af) — 3/25/2020 @ 3:14 pm
The mortality rate in NY is less than 1%. That’s good under the circumstances. That’s because they are testing and the 30k number supports that. Testing is the most near-term solution to relaxing the lockdowns. So, a low death rate and lots of testing minimize some of the other problems I might have with him.
Cuomo might have a timing issue. I don’t think he will have time for NY to be in a position where he can run for POTUS.
But I think it’s a safe bet that Biden won’t be POTUS.
BTW; if you want a pie in the sky dream that should be pimped more than the wonder drug it’s a test that’s as simple as a pregnancy test. I’d be ecstatic to have one like a diabetes test.
frosty (f27e97) — 3/25/2020 @ 3:31 pmMedtronic is headquartered in the US and mostly manufactures in the US. It has a “tax haven”
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 3/25/2020 @ 3:32 pmheadquarters in Ireland, through a 2015 “buyout.” It is fair to call it a US company as far as where things are designed and made. I hope that any benefits from the bailout bill evade them as they evade US taxes.
The mortality rate in NY is less than 1%.
The mortality rage world-wide is slightly above that, but event that is declining. 1% seems like a good number to work with, which would suggest that even if everyone in the US gets it, the toll would be 300K, 80% of whole would be 65 or older (and mostly way older). That’s not great — 6 or 7 times the annual flu toll, but it is far down the scale from the million-plus that it looked like in February.
I think that if the final number comes in under, oh, 200,000 Trump will be OK. Not that this will prevent criticism, and not that anything will stop Trump from an unseemly victory lap.
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 3/25/2020 @ 3:36 pmI also wonder how great Medtronic’s tax pivot seems now that the US corporate tax rate is much lower.
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 3/25/2020 @ 3:37 pm71… funny stuff, harkin!
Colonel Haiku (2601c0) — 3/25/2020 @ 3:39 pmKevin M (ab1c11) — 3/25/2020 @ 3:32 pm
I don’t. I hope anything on the table incentives anyone anywhere to develop a fast, simple, reliable, or cheap test. I hope the same for a vaccine and for ventilators and everything else. It doesn’t do me any good to spit on a solution because the company optimized its tax structure.
I would like to be alive so that after this is under control I could see some sort of “about those bailouts” conversations. If that doesn’t happen at would like to be alive to at least complain about it.
frosty (f27e97) — 3/25/2020 @ 3:39 pmGE Healthcare is an American multinational conglomerate incorporated in New York and headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.
And Medtronic, as frosty said.
10 out of 15 ain’t bad. Who wants to add up and compare U.S. v non- 2018 revenues?
ColoComment (2429fb) — 3/25/2020 @ 3:42 pmGood Lord these WH beat journalists are terrible.
Colonel Haiku (2601c0) — 3/25/2020 @ 3:44 pm“How many deaths are acceptable?”
Colonel Haiku (2601c0) — 3/25/2020 @ 3:45 pm[Ireland’s rate is] also still lower than the U.S. corporate rate, despite the latter being slashed last year from 35 percent to 21 percent.
ColoComment (2429fb) — 3/25/2020 @ 3:45 pmhttps://www.dailysignal.com/2018/05/14/ireland-lower-its-corporate-tax-rate-heres-what-happened/
Colonel Haiku (2601c0) — 3/25/2020 @ 3:45 pm
This is why I’d never be POTUS. Asked that question at this point I’d start counting the reporters in the room.
frosty (f27e97) — 3/25/2020 @ 3:48 pmCoronavirus outbreak threatens to wipe out California’s $21-billion surplus
How they gonna fund the public employee benefit ponzi scheme now?
harkin (b64479) — 3/25/2020 @ 3:56 pm_
Remember the current NY mortality rate of .8%, pretty good right? The rate of the last ten years of seasonal flu is .01%, and CV is more than 2X as infectious.
Colonel Klink (Ret) (305827) — 3/25/2020 @ 4:03 pmThis is not the flu!!!
Who are these Americans?
You know. Morons.
nk (1d9030) — 3/25/2020 @ 4:11 pm@76. Sorta like cruise ships/lines- and oil takers leased/owned/operated by U.S. oil firms–being registered in Liberia. Reaganomics. 😉
DCSCA (797bc0) — 3/25/2020 @ 4:23 pm1% of the US population is not 300K…
And if everyone gets it at ~the same time, the mortality rate will be higher.
Dave (1bb933) — 3/25/2020 @ 4:23 pm@ aphrael,
Trump simply can’t resist making himself the center of attention. He immediately goes into persecuted/defensive mode, and whether or not people are focused on more important things like surviving all of this, he still has to come first. Even in a pandemic.
Dana (4fb37f) — 3/25/2020 @ 4:33 pmAnd his cultists reflexively defend whatever he says or does, however insane and destructive.
Dave (1bb933) — 3/25/2020 @ 4:39 pmKevin Kiley
@KevinKileyCA
Whatever one’s general views on #AB5, it simply can’t be denied that the policy is uniquely incompatible with a statewide lockdown. Please suspend it, @GavinNewsom.
__ _
Luke
@lukethedoggie
·
Replying to
@KevinKileyCA and @GavinNewsom @LorenaSGonzalez @LorenaAD80
please listen to the millions of Californians suffering at this time due to AB5. We need to be able to provide for families. AB5 has failed to help anybody in any industry and exemptions keep getting handed out at random. #RepealAB5
harkin (b64479) — 3/25/2020 @ 4:42 pm_
Seriously. Donald Trump’s support comes from his ability to find people and things for his supporters to hate and then fan the flames of those hates. He has no independent existence; he is defined by what he is against. President Trump’s Coronavirus was a godsend to him in that regard. He should write Xi Jinping a beautiful letter.
nk (1d9030) — 3/25/2020 @ 4:55 pmBut as you have noticed (and noted here on previous occasions), Kevin, most people who enter into the public discussion of this issue are in it for political points of one sort or another. (Thus, in Korea, “conservative” types are blaming Moon Jae-in for the outbreak, which is equally ridiculous.)
Trump is no more capable of preventing a pandemic before it starts than your Aunt Minnie.
It would be nice if people could let go of the need to rationalize the politicization of absolutely anything long enough to register the inescapable reality that this is “Mother Nature’s pandemic.”
Of course, if people could accept that — namely that diseases and death are inevitable facts of life which humans may take steps to ameliorate to some degree, but which we cannot eradicate outright — then this whole “crisis” mode of thinking, including the need to blame someone, might start to appear in its proper light, which is to say as mass hysteria, media-induced panic, and fear-induced witch hunting.
Daren Jonescu (2f5857) — 3/25/2020 @ 4:56 pmHe also tells people whatever they want to hear, without the slightest regard for the truth or the damage his lies do.
Dave (1bb933) — 3/25/2020 @ 5:03 pm@87:
You do not know the mortality rate of this virus, anywhere on Earth. For it is impossible to know the mortality rate (or even estimate the rate, as we do with flu viruses) without having any reasonable idea of how many people have been infected, which we will not have for months, or perhaps years. In fact, we’ll never have a certain and generally agree-upon number, just as we don’t with the common flu, the Spanish Flu of 1918, and so on. It’s simply impossible to do better than a very wide general guess, since most of the infected experience few or no symptoms, and never get tested.
So can we please dispense with the “mortality rate” fear-mongering, a trope that ought to have died weeks ago?
Let’s all put on our thinking caps now, folks. A mortality rate based on deaths per CONFIRMED CASES is entirely different from a mortality rate based on deaths per TOTAL (confirmed and unconfirmed) CASES.
To compare what the media and the “experts” (i.e., media-supported degree-holders) are calling the mortality rate of this virus with the mortality rate of the common flu is like comparing the percentage of likely Trump voters among “Americans who wear red caps” to the percentage of likely Biden voters in the general population, and then concluding, “Oh my god, Trump’s more popular than Biden by a rate of 10 to 1!”
Daren Jonescu (2f5857) — 3/25/2020 @ 5:10 pm“ In December, Li Wenliang, a 33-year-old ophthalmologist in Wuhan, the site of the outbreak, told his friends on a private online chat group that patients exhibiting symptoms akin to SARS—severe acute respiratory syndrome—were in quarantine at the emergency department at the city’s central hospital where Li worked. When SARS first flared up in China in 2003, Beijing covered up the scale of the horror for four months. The upshot of that concealment was 774 fatalities at home and abroad. Li warned his friends—all of them doctors—to be careful this time. China’s internet police intercepted the exchange. And three days later, Li was berated by his bosses, accused by the police of “making false comments” and coerced into signing a statement expressing contrition for disturbing “social order”.
“ After forcing Li to return to work, where the young doctor immediately contracted the virus, the local apparatchiks of the Communist Party of China ordered labs to stop testing and destroy the existing samples and proceeded with a potluck banquet for 40,000 families in a precinct of Wuhan. As patients proliferated, Taiwan notified the World Health Organisation before the end of December that the virus spread from human-to-human. But rather than ring the alarm bells, as late as 14 January, WHO was parroting Beijing’s line that there was “no clear evidence of human-to-human transmission”. The genome of the virus, mapped as early as 2 January, was withheld from the world for a week. Information that might have averted a global catastrophe was studiously suppressed. And by the time President Xi Jinping properly acknowledged the crisis, on 20 January, three people had died. That number rose to above 200 by the end of the month. Li died in early February.
Once the virus made its inevitable outward march, claiming lives beyond China’s borders, the CPC mounted a major public relations exercise that exploited common human decencies to evade accountability. Criticism of the Chinese government was equated with racist prejudice against ordinary Chinese people. The result: rather than confront China, precious energies were exerted to avoid the trap set by China. In February, the Mayor of Florence launched a campaign encouraging Italians to “hug a Chinese”, describing it as a “fight of solidarity and unity against virus”. The People’s Daily, a mouthpiece of the CPC, applauded young Italians advertising their virtuousness on the Internet with photos of themselves hugging Chinese tourists without mentioning a word about the mortal perils of human contact.
China didn’t owe an apology or an explanation to the world: the world owed China proof of its anti-racism. There was no time, of course, to ponder the irony of the most xenophobic despotism in the world, which has interned a million ethnic Uighur Muslims in Xinjiang, cleansed Tibetan Buddhists from their homeland, and deluged restive regions with Han settlers, setting itself up as the certifying authority on what constituted anti-racist behaviour. There was no time to remember that, just three years ago, the state museum in Wuhan had put on an exhibition likening Africans to wild animals……
….. This disaster is a great clarifier. From London to Washington, it has exposed the malign incompetence of major Western governments. It has also shattered every supposition on which the ascent of China was premised. The liberal assumption that the West was more likely to influence China by making concessions to its rulers has proved to be a self-wounding fantasy. The West, it was claimed, was more likely to influence China by partnering with it—by creating a prominent position for it inside, rather than keeping it outside, global institutions. After the fall of the Soviet Union, the US locked itself into a self-wounding trade relationship with China. Advanced economies, underwriting Beijing’s rise by incinerating the jobs that supported their own working classes, scattered the seeds of explosive discontent at home to export material prosperity to a regime that converted it into crude power to wield against its own benefactors.
In the decades thereafter, far from shaping the Chinese state’s behaviour, it is the West that incrementally relinquished its own avowed values to appease Beijing. The CPC under President Xi is more repressive today than it was just a decade ago. It is Western authors who self-edit for the tawdry privilege of being published in China. It is Hollywood that modifies its films to placate the Chinese censors. Governments that never tire of puffing their chests at the Middle East’s tin pot tyrannies in the name of human rights now spurn the Dalai Lama for fear of offending China. And international agencies that happily hector others lose their voice when dealing with Beijing (notice the long weeks it took for WHO to declare a pandemic).”
https://thecritic.co.uk/the-coronavirus-cover-up/
__ _
AckShOoly TrUmp’S ReSPonsE MAy bE WOrsE.
harkin (b64479) — 3/25/2020 @ 5:14 pm__ _
Very interesting, harkin.
Colonel Haiku (2601c0) — 3/25/2020 @ 5:22 pmDaren Jonescu (2f5857) — 3/25/2020 @ 5:10 pm
This is true in a way that doesn’t matter. There are a lot of issues with all of the covid stats but they are the only information we have.
This begs the question, to what end? Other than not looking at the current number of people who’ve died what do you suggest? Are you suggesting we do nothing? Are we supposed to presume that since we don’t have clean data we can’t make any decisions at all? Because, to paraphrase, not making a decision is still making a decision.
I don’t think the current rates are the true mortality rate of the virus. I’m sure some countries are also fudging the numbers by defining what counts as death from covid. But I think it makes sense to look at the percentages as a measure of how much testing is being done for example. The numbers aren’t worthless.
frosty (f27e97) — 3/25/2020 @ 5:27 pmUncle’ wife, at SayUncle, passed away very suddenly. She was very young.
nk (1d9030) — 3/25/2020 @ 5:28 pmIn good news, Amazon’s most popular show, Bosch, has announced its final season (6) release date, April 17th. In bad news, we may not even be alive then!
But it gives us a goal, a purpose.
Make America Ordered Again (23f793) — 3/25/2020 @ 5:44 pmExactly. If it’s a low mortality with a higher infection rate, that’s just pushing up the numerator by taking from the denominator. We can’t possibly answer this question. We just know the rate is jumping and jumping, and ideally will stop at a certain point. I guess because a lot of people do develop immunity to it. At least that is my hope.
Dustin (b18b7a) — 3/25/2020 @ 6:05 pmJudging from the comments here, it’s people like the commenters here. I feel like I am living on a different planet from them. They live on a planet where there is no virus growing exponentially and threatening to overwhelm our health care system, but just a mild sickness hardly worse than the flu. Where the notion of such a virus is Fake News from a media out to target a good guy who reacted super quickly and saw this for the pandemic it is from Day One, but also realizes it’s a hoax designed to thwart his re-election and thus he has the courage to get us packing the churches by Easter.
I like their planet better than the real one I inhabit. I’d feel a lot safer there.
Patterico (115b1f) — 3/25/2020 @ 6:19 pm104. Whoa whoa whoa. Look out there, Patterico. I do question the seriousness of this thing, but with the Oxford Report released today, I have good reason to. I’m not going to make this personal, and I’m not going to expound any further except to say that I just want to be financially solvent and have a job to return to when this thing blows over. That’s all. Say I’m wrong, call me crazy; I don’t think that’s unreasonable at all.
Gryph (08c844) — 3/25/2020 @ 6:23 pmhttps://dfw.cbslocal.com/2020/03/24/this-not-game-food-plant-workers-walk-out-over-coronavirus-concerns/
Could be a fluke but if the food supply starts to break down we may realize our little hotel and airline bailout was aimed poorly. We may find that giving everybody a check makes them happy for a little while, but the real fight is for the basic safety equipment, medical infrastructure, and food. Ignoring danger is a good way to get your ass knocked out.
Dustin (b18b7a) — 3/25/2020 @ 6:24 pmIn case it’s not abundantly clear, I don’t care where Trump lands politically on this thing one way or another. I. Don’t. Care. Start talking politics on a CoViD-19 thread, and that’s where you lose me.
Gryph (08c844) — 3/25/2020 @ 6:25 pmI’m Joe Biden and I forgot this message.
Dustin (b18b7a) — 3/25/2020 @ 6:28 pmThey have unicorns too!
Dave (1bb933) — 3/25/2020 @ 6:30 pmAllahpundit has some good thoughts on the Oxford Report.
Me, I think it’s the thing Trumpalos will seize on as intellectual cover for their desire to follow Trump off the cliff.
I hope I hope it’s right. I don’t think it is.
Patterico (115b1f) — 3/25/2020 @ 6:38 pmPatterico (115b1f) — 3/25/2020 @ 6:19 pm
My experience is that it’s more than just Trump fans saying it’s no big deal. With people I know it breaks down more along Gryph lines. It depends a lot on their job and their sense of financial security. I know a lot of older people who also don’t take it seriously for some reason and also are definitely not Trump fans. Yes, a lot of Trump fans are in this group but all those kids at spring break aren’t. I’m generally labeled a Trump fan here. I’m also pretty sure that as long as I can stay above ground I can rebuild whatever is taken financially as part of this. I’m going to take this seriously because I can’t rebuild some of the people in my life with pre-existing conditions.
frosty (f27e97) — 3/25/2020 @ 6:44 pmAnd
frosty (f27e97) — 3/25/2020 @ 6:44 pm
isn’t to defend Trump. I think it’s a suboptimal approach to say Trump supporters just don’t get this because it’s not just Trump supporters.
frosty (f27e97) — 3/25/2020 @ 6:47 pm110. What makes you think it’s wrong? I’m genuinely curious for a contrarian view here. Viruses don’t spontaneously attenuate. The “observed reality” in the UK and Italy is that they are testing dead bodies for CoViD-19 and if they are found to be harboring the virus, no further inquest or autopsy is conducted. That, ladies and gentlemen, is not sound epidemiology no matter what disease you’re talking about.
To my way of thinking, this comes back to the Diamond Princess. There is so much about the stats there that make absolutely no sense unless certain other things are true. What if China was researching this virus, but instead of a weapon, they were trying to attenuate it for use as a SARS vaccine?
I know that sounds crazy, but follow along: The first polio vaccine in use in the United States was the oral Sabin vaccine. That was the one that was drank in suspension or eaten on sugar cubes. It was exceedingly rare, about a one-in-one million chance, for that vaccine to give its recipients poliomyelitis indistinguishible from wild polio virus.
It’s possible that China was working on attenuating a SARS virus for use as a vaccine in just such a manner, but before their work was complete someone let the virus loose. And instead of a one-in-one million chance of wild virus reproduction, if the Diamond Princess numbers were extrapolated worldwide, the chance would be more like one-in-ten thousand or some-such. That would be your chance of actually getting sick. If these numbers were to hold, in theory for each person that gets sick, there would be roughly 9,999 asymptomatic individuals who are or would become immune.
And before you call me crazy, the way to test for immunity long after such an infection would be to conduct serological antibody testing which the United States of America isn’t doing yet. Yes, I am aware the tests are available. But the tests in America so far have tested for the presence of viral RNA codons. If the CDC would start doing serological testing, we could get a sense of how far we actually are in this thing instead of worrying about how many people could get sick on the flimsy data we do have.
Gryph (08c844) — 3/25/2020 @ 6:48 pm‘Judging from the comments here, it’s people like the commenters here. I feel like I am living on a different planet from them. They live on a planet where there is no virus growing exponentially and threatening to overwhelm our health care system, but just a mild sickness hardly worse than the flu. Where the notion of such a virus is Fake News from a media out to target a good guy who reacted super quickly and saw this for the pandemic it is from Day One, but also realizes it’s a hoax designed to thwart his re-election and thus he has the courage to get us packing the churches by Easter…’
“I’m dead right on this. The coronavirus is the common cold, folks.” – Rush Limbaugh, February 24, 2020.
=sigh=
DCSCA (797bc0) — 3/25/2020 @ 6:50 pm114. Except that it’s not the common-cold. Rush was dead wrong on this one. I would no sooner knowingly expose my elderly and infirm father to CoViD-19 than I would to someone who has seasonal flu. CoViD-19 is a legitimate concern and I believe that social distancing is a legitimate way to handle that concern. What I don’t like is the idea of a government diktat that constitutes economic suicide. The fewer jobs that open after being forced to close, the harder it will be for the unemployed to find work again.
Gryph (08c844) — 3/25/2020 @ 6:55 pmHAHAHA! That’s funny! Thanks.
felipe (023cc9) — 3/25/2020 @ 6:56 pm@115. NFK.
DCSCA (797bc0) — 3/25/2020 @ 6:58 pmFWIW: The actual Kael quote shows her to be a bit more self-aware than the purported versions you see out there:
“I live in a rather special world. I only know one person who voted for Nixon. Where they are I don’t know. They’re outside my ken. But sometimes when I’m in a theater I can feel them.”
She was of course a film-critic. About the only time she came close to Nixon supporter was in a movie-house, and she knew it.
JRH (52aed3) — 3/25/2020 @ 7:00 pmNothing’s absolute but yeah, COVID truthers / COVIDIOTS as the world is calling them, often rely on the idea that the virus was a liberal hoax intended to harm Trump’s re-election. Rush got that message out there.
Had Obama flaked for months on this issue Rush would be insisting he be removed under Article 25 with dramatic headlines. The partisanship is a symptom of how stupid society is. Why trust any of these guys? Either side? But most people do trust one of the sides.
Dustin (b18b7a) — 3/25/2020 @ 7:05 pm119. I don’t. I haven’t listened to Rush at all since mid-June 2015.
Gryph (08c844) — 3/25/2020 @ 7:06 pmThe question I can’t find an answer to in that article is
If the virus has been here for a while why is it showing a sudden peak at all? Unless this isn’t a sudden peak which shouldn’t be that hard to determine from hospital statistics. Italy doesn’t show a pattern of a slow infection. China didn’t show a pattern of a slow infection. Iran certainly didn’t do that. Those are all textbook cases of virulent outbreaks of a serious virus.
That’s not to say I wouldn’t love to see the testing they’re advocating for. More information is better.
frosty (f27e97) — 3/25/2020 @ 7:07 pm121. That’s the rub, Frosty. It’s a sudden peak in sickness. Not necessarily in people catching the virus. The odd ratio of infected-to-sick is almost impossible to explain outside of some degree of artificial attenuation (that is, an attempt in a lab to render the virus live-but-harmless for use as a vaccine, a la Sabin).
Gryph (08c844) — 3/25/2020 @ 7:09 pmIf I were in charge, there would be a threefold method of dealing with this thing:
A) Mass importation, manufacture, and distribution of chloroquine and any possible analogs, to be prescribed and dispensed under the direct supervision of qualified doctors in all 50 states
B) Monthly randomized serological testing in order to determine to the most precise degree possible the percentage of the population which harbors CoViD-19 antibodies and whether that number is rising or falling
C) A massive PSA and social media blitz to encourage social distancing from and isolation of high-risk populations (particularly but not limited to those in hospitals and nursing homes)
Gryph (08c844) — 3/25/2020 @ 7:13 pmFrom where, by who?
Where would you get these tests?
Already happening.
So you’re solutions are 2 magical things, and another that everyone is doing, well, except for Trump.
Colonel Klink (Ret) (305827) — 3/25/2020 @ 7:17 pmThat’s the new Liberal/DNC mantra. Trump didn’t believe it was a crisis. Then he handled it incompetently – other people were responsible for ANYTHING done well. And now its, Trumpe wants to quit fighting the virus too soon. IOW, Trump is always wrong. If trump makes a remark about Romney its beyond the pale. If Trump says its not sarcasm that’s a lie. If Trump tweets his so glad that Romney is negative tested and He likes him, we get crickets. Trump is always wrong.
ITs why no one on the Center-right cares about the Bulwark Boys or the Dispatch Gang. And why you never talk about George Will anymore. No one cares about their endless attacks on Trump 24/7/365, although one, Charlie Sykes is saying something positive for a change. He’s exulting in the upcoming Biden “landslide”, because y’know “conservatism””
rcocean (2e1c02) — 3/25/2020 @ 7:20 pmQuick google on the subject of asymptomatic flu infections shows a wide range of estimates on the percent of people who are infected with flu but don’t show symptoms. Possibly that variation is due to the variety of flu strains in any given year. But some of the estimates claim up to 77% of flu infections show no symptoms.
I think you are putting too much emphasis on the Diamond Princess stats. One shipload versus the rest of the world suggests DP was a statistical fluke, not the standard.
Kishnevi (916796) — 3/25/2020 @ 7:20 pm124. A) Whoever is able to do so. No one ever asks that about masks or ventilators, and yet somehow we have textile companies and automobile manufacturers stepping up. I’m sure there are chemists, possibly even drug manufacturers out there somewhere with the know-how to manufacture synthetic quinine analogs.
B) The same place the countries who are doing these tests are getting them. Serological testing is a lot less expensive and faster than the sequence testing we’re engaging in now, and we don’t have to be nearly as picky about who we test if we’re looking for antibody percentages.
C) Yeah, it’s already happening. You chuckleheads ought to be glad that I’m actually endorsing measures we’re taking.
Beyond that, any more stringent lockdown measures should not be taken at the federal level. Leave it up to the states.
And since there are countries out there that are doing serological testing and administering chloroquine, your definition of “magic” seems a little odd to me. Oh well. YMMV.
Gryph (08c844) — 3/25/2020 @ 7:22 pm“ serological testing”
I didn’t know what this was till a few days ago, it answered a question or two.
harkin (b64479) — 3/25/2020 @ 7:22 pm_
“ Nothing’s absolute but yeah, COVID truthers / COVIDIOTS as the world is calling them, often rely on the idea that the virus was a liberal hoax intended to harm Trump’s re-election.”
__
My sister is an ICU RN. In late February at a COVID FAQ meeting the doctors were telling staff the average flu was worse than Coronavirus.
There was a lot of bad info out there and it wasn’t all from talk radio hosts.
harkin (b64479) — 3/25/2020 @ 7:27 pm__
Well, yes and yes.
Jan. 22: “We have it totally under control. It’s one person coming in from China. We have it under control. It’s going to be just fine.”
Jan. 18 HHS Secretary Azar has his first discussion about the virus with President Trump. Unnamed “senior administration officials” told the Washington Post that “the president interjected to ask about vaping and when flavored vaping products would be back on the market.”
Dana (4fb37f) — 3/25/2020 @ 7:28 pm126. Actually, given the isolation of the Diamond Princess, it’s an ideal start for extrapolating the data to other populations. And it’s not me pointing that out; it’s the Oxford Study authors. If you’re going to try to fill in the blanks in the wholly inadequate data we’re building policy on right now, the Diamond Princess is actually the closest we have to an isolated/closed environment to work from. Reject that, and we’re doing nothing but shooting from the hip. Even Dr. Birx admitted as much.
“We went out with a very blunt force…We had to do that because we weren’t sure where the virus was and where it was going.”
Think about that. Our elites in DC are setting policy without even knowing where the virus was and where it was going. That’s a threat to my well-being that I can see plainly in front of my face.
Gryph (08c844) — 3/25/2020 @ 7:28 pm128. Serological testing is a fancy term for how most viral exposure is tested for. You don’t detect the virus or any of its pieces; you look for the telltale signs of the body’s immune response to that particular virus.
To wit: I am 41 years old. I had chickenpox when I was 9 months old. If you stick me for blood and test for chickenpox antibodies, you’ll find them there. That is why I can’t get chickenpox again, and that is in turn why I helped my mother with all three of my brothers when they got it.
If this thing turns out to be what I think it might be (and yeah, I know it’s not a sure thing), then serological testing of medical industry personnel for CoViD-19 antibodies could be a routine thing. And that’s a good thing, cause then you’d know who is statistically a zero-risk individual for catching or passing the virus.
Gryph (08c844) — 3/25/2020 @ 7:31 pmGryph (08c844) — 3/25/2020 @ 7:09 pm
With all due respect that is getting a little conspiracy adjacent.
There can’t be a sudden peak in sickness absent a change in the virus or the population being infected. Leaving off the second option, the first means technically it’s not the same virus. Even if artificially changed it would have to change and that would show up in the genetic analysis. I’ve posted a phylogenetic study in a different thread. This is being called a novel virus because it doesn’t track back. If your theory is correct why isn’t it tracked to the virus that was being turned into a vaccine that is also supposed to have been floating around?
If it’s causing a sudden peak we’re still in trouble unless we’re magically at the top of the peak. None of the outbreaks in other countries gives us any reason to think that.
frosty (f27e97) — 3/25/2020 @ 7:34 pmA+B) There is a linear flow of time. You can’t wish it into existing, supply chains must exist, factories must be outfit, all requires time. Volume production doesn’t magically appear, unless you have some faerie dust in your pocket.
During that time, things are happening, things like dead people.
Magical thinking isn’t a solution.
Colonel Klink (Ret) (305827) — 3/25/2020 @ 7:35 pmDiamond Princess had two groups aboard: affluent, generally older, Westerners as passengers and younger, mostly Third World, crew members. Not a good sample for extrapolation.
About 45% of those tested for the virus were asymptomatic.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/24/us/diamond-princess-cruise-ship-asymptomatic-tests/index.html
That would be in line with those influenza estimates.
Kishnevi (916796) — 3/25/2020 @ 7:36 pm133. Tell that to the Oxford Study authors. Just because it makes you feel uncomfortable doesn’t mean it’s not true. Not out-of-hand anyway. Extrapolate the data we do have from worldwide serological testing, and it’s not unreasonable to think that for every person getting sick, there could be another 9,999 remaining asymptomatic. I took nursing classes for crying out loud, and I’m not aware of any other disease with a ration like that. It begs belief that such a phenomenon would be wholly natural. But, I guess if it helps you sleep at night….whatevs.
Gryph (08c844) — 3/25/2020 @ 7:38 pm136. *ratio
Gryph (08c844) — 3/25/2020 @ 7:38 pmBeyond that, any more stringent lockdown measures should not be taken at the federal level. Leave it up to the states.
Gryph, all these lockdown measures are state and local. It’s your governor whose li iting how your place of employment can operate, not someone in DC. I’m under lockdown ordered by my county. We have a little over 400 cases out of a population of just under 2 million.
Kishnevi (916796) — 3/25/2020 @ 7:41 pmGryph (08c844) — 3/25/2020 @ 7:28 pm
I would like to put you and the “Trump didn’t/isn’t do[ing] enough fast enough” guys in a ring with thunder dome rules. Trying to talk to both sides is frustrating.
frosty (f27e97) — 3/25/2020 @ 7:42 pmYou have shone a light on a gap in my knowledge: An immune individual cannot catch it again, true. But does immunity also mean it cannot be “carried?” I don’t want to debate “transmitted” and “carry.” Wasn’t typhoid Mary immune, but also a carrier? I know I might be making a catefory mistake since Typhus is caused by a bacterium as opposed to a virus. I mean a surface can be a place of transfer for the virus, why not an immune individual?
felipe (023cc9) — 3/25/2020 @ 7:43 pmPlease read the Oxford study, because it doesn’t say what you seem to think it says. It proposes a model, that the authors specifically say is speculative because there is very little data to correlate.
Colonel Klink (Ret) (305827) — 3/25/2020 @ 7:45 pm133. Did you look at the Oxford Study, or have you just read what others in the media (including Allahpundit and Patterico) have said about it? They make an argument that the UK could be at the peak, or nearing it within the next week or two. The graphs and stats are there.
As for “it doesn’t track back,” Italy in particular has been rife with cases of death having been documented as caused by CoViD-19 without supporting documentation from inquests and autopsies. I’m not sure how prevalent that misfeasance is in the rest of the world, but I’m pretty sure the one thing the Oxford Study has right about the Diamond Princess is the number of deaths directly attributable to CoViD-19; in Italy, the number of deaths attributable to such is being grossly overstated.
In the United States, when Dr. Birx says “…we weren’t sure where the virus was and where it was going,” that should have been your first clue that our failure in the USA to track it back was not because of its novel nature. Someone at the highest levels of government ****ed up. And these are the people setting policy.
134. That’s why C) is still part of my method as well, Klink. Good grief, with the selective hearing already. Flattening the curve has some utility, even if it doesn’t save lives alone. And it won’t ultimately save lives, but it can buy us time.
Gryph (08c844) — 3/25/2020 @ 7:45 pmGryph (08c844) — 3/25/2020 @ 7:38 pm
It is hard to believe. That’s why I have a hard time believing it. I’ve heard a lot of calls for this type of testing and I’m certainly for it. We’ll see. Until then I’m staying careful and doing what I can to ask for more testing of all kinds.
I think my state governor isn’t pushing testing and I’m not happy at all about that.
frosty (f27e97) — 3/25/2020 @ 7:47 pm141. All I’m asserting on the basis of the Oxford Study, Klink, is that the blind panic engaged in by government “experts” is not warranted on the basis of what information we do have. The way to prove or disprove this hypothesis going forward would be to act on Gupta’s and Lourenco’s suggestion that serological testing should be done monthly on random samples of the population in each country where CoViD-19 is present. That’s how you do science, right? Take a hypothesis, and then prove or disprove it.
Gryph (08c844) — 3/25/2020 @ 7:51 pm140. The Oxford Study suggests that the potential for that kind of mutation of this particular virus appears low. Serological testing would help make that determination as well. As I said upthread, once you get chickenpox you can’t catch it again. I’m living proof. And I ministered to all three of my younger brothers as they got it, and I didn’t catch it, nor did I pass it on to anyone else when I lived with them.
Gryph (08c844) — 3/25/2020 @ 7:53 pm138. That’s true for now, Kish. And I’ve been complaining to my city council reps and state legislative reps as well insofar as I don’t approve of how they have been handling it. But especially after flushing another 2 trillion down the “stimulus” toilet, I don’t trust the federal government to keep its collective mitts off what should be local affairs. I don’t really trust them to do much of anything.
Gryph (08c844) — 3/25/2020 @ 7:56 pmTo determine the accuracy of the study, the authors (if you read it, you’d know this) requested the serology tests be distributed to the population of the UK. Their timeline is 8 to 20 months, from being able to start, to finish.
Time exists, you can’t create the tests, manufacture the tests, distribute the tests, perform the tests, collect the tests, then actually test the tests; in a day, or a week, or a month…
Colonel Klink (Ret) (305827) — 3/25/2020 @ 7:56 pmAlso, the study proposes a number of scenarios, you seem to be focused on one, the least likely according to the authors. It is not claiming to be factual.
It doesn’t claim the thing you’re saying IS true, it says it’s among a large series of possibilities, that require extensive testing to figure at any are valid.
Colonel Klink (Ret) (305827) — 3/25/2020 @ 7:59 pm@142 I will admit I haven’t read the story. I’ve had a long day so it will wait. I’ll also confess that our exchanges don’t give me confidence. You have a strong emotional bias that is completely understandable but doesn’t make me want to go read a scientific study until after my morning coffee.
You are also misinterpreting some of my comments. Whether it tracks back or not isn’t about how a death is counted. It’s about the genetic evolution of the virus. The virus we’re dealing with now isn’t genetically traceable to a less lethal human transmitted virus prior to Jan/Dec. At least not based on any data I’ve seen. There is a decent worldwide surveillance network that does a pretty good job tracking these human-human viruses.
frosty (f27e97) — 3/25/2020 @ 7:59 pmI have not read the entire COVID relief bill (who has?), but one item that should be in there, if it is not, is the creation (if needed) of an entity whose authority purpose is to “stress test” hospitals, just as banks are stress-tested.
A great question to be answered is why the healthcare systems in certain areas are so overwhelmed? I can see why a private hospital might be so easily overwhelmed due to keeping resources as close to demand as possible. Just as a private business must balance the bottom line as an ongoing concern. Could our healthcare infrastructure be too close to a “just in time” model than, say, a “strategic reserve” model?
felipe (023cc9) — 3/25/2020 @ 8:00 pm147. I get that. It’s possible that in that span of time, we might be well past over the (a?) hump. I have to cede that it’s also possible we may at some point have better testing data only to find that the worst may be yet to come. Again, I am only asserting that serological testing and extrapolation of the data we do know to be sound can work as a rational basis for getting through this thing without the blind panic of “…we weren’t sure where the virus was and where it was going.”
Gryph (08c844) — 3/25/2020 @ 8:01 pmFrom one of the actual authors.
Colonel Klink (Ret) (305827) — 3/25/2020 @ 8:02 pm148. Then let’s get to it. We can show those Climate Change alarmists what real science looks like, and do it for the material benefit of our fellow man. You know what I know won’t save lives? Cowering in our homes at the behest of a bunch of bureaucrats who have already admitted they have no idea what they’re doing or how long it’s going to take for them to figure it out.
Gryph (08c844) — 3/25/2020 @ 8:03 pmGreat idea, Felipe. Hospitals have shrunk over time. Here in Austin the old UMC Brack was replaced with a hospital with half the capacity just a few years ago. Efficiency in the best years with the best kinds of patients is a lot different from the ability to withstand this kind of problem.
Dustin (b18b7a) — 3/25/2020 @ 8:04 pmfrosty (f27e97) — 3/25/2020 @ 7:59 pm
Good comment, frosty. Note to trolls: This is the honest and respectful way to defend your position; it also builds credibility on any site.
felipe (023cc9) — 3/25/2020 @ 8:06 pm152. Where do we get that data from, ladies and gentlemen?
Drum roll, please…
Serological testing!
Gryph (08c844) — 3/25/2020 @ 8:07 pmWe’re not getting it for another two months at least and it will still be limited to people with symptoms. https://time.com/5809753/at-home-coronavirus-test/
nk (1d9030) — 3/25/2020 @ 8:09 pmGryph (08c844) — 3/25/2020 @ 7:51 pm
This is just you picking the study you like. There are no government experts in the sense I think you mean. The government listened to a group of experts that are in every way hardly distinguishable from your experts. They’re just at a different university, well known research lab, or think tank and used some different words to present some conclusions. One set of conclusions scared the ever loving s*** out of a lot of world leaders who have no idea what to do about this situation and another one probably said that on an outside chance this might possibly not be a catastrophe.
frosty (f27e97) — 3/25/2020 @ 8:10 pmYes, when we we want it…as fast as it can be created and distributed, performed, and the data collected.
Just saying the words doesn’t mean the work is done. That just begins a months long process. There is not magic bullet, all of this takes time. We are socially distancing until the data exists to make a more informed decision.
Your solution seems to be do nothing but lock up grandma until we have the data. Something that the limited data we have today shows doesn’t work. You can’t wish the virus away, wishing for tests that can’t be implemented immediately to just exist isn’t realistic.
Magic isn’t a solution.
Colonel Klink (Ret) (305827) — 3/25/2020 @ 8:13 pm158. Not at all. Not at all. There are possibilities, and hypotheses. I’d like to see the truth out. I didn’t say it would be easy or fast. We’re working within a range of possibilities here, with the Imperial Study and the Oxford Study representing two extremes of hypothetical assertion. Scientific Methodology is incomplete without sufficiently rigorous experimentation to prove or disprove that hypothesis. Trust me, if my optimism is unwarranted, I will publicly say so in the very comments on this blog and every social media platform I engage with.
Gryph (08c844) — 3/25/2020 @ 8:14 pmThanks, Dustin. I hope this idea has occurred to our betters.
felipe (023cc9) — 3/25/2020 @ 8:15 pm159. What part of “I am not against social distancing” did you miss, Klink? Good grief…I’m giving way here. Don’t be such a hardass. Social distancing will buy us at least some time to get our collective act together. I thought maybe you’d be a little more open to the idea that I’m actually seeing a light at the end of this tunnel.
Gryph (08c844) — 3/25/2020 @ 8:15 pmHe gets credit for that, and for little else. Trump is responsible for not going by the NSC playbook. And why would he. It was developed by the Deep State, or Obama or something.
Paul Montagu (df60ed) — 3/25/2020 @ 8:18 pmGryph, frosty, I am enjoying your conversation.
felipe (023cc9) — 3/25/2020 @ 8:18 pmWatching $2 trillion Senate vote CSPAN2. See how many of those azzholes are not practicing basic ‘social distancing’ — particularly Susan Collins. Utter idiots.
DCSCA (797bc0) — 3/25/2020 @ 8:24 pmAfter the travel ban to China was enacted, 36k American’s and resident aliens left the US to travel to China. 66k Citizens and resident aliens flew back from China…after the travel ban to China was put in place.
And that doesn’t count connecting through Taipei, Seol, or Tokyo, which you can do today, yesterday, last week, and last month.
Colonel Klink (Ret) (305827) — 3/25/2020 @ 8:24 pmGryph (08c844) — 3/25/2020 @ 8:01 pm
This I agree with. More testing, of every kind. More data period. I 100% want to avoid blind panic and that is a very tricky business right now. Much trickier than I’ve heard discussed in this forum.
Soon more people will know people impacted and it won’t be sick and old people. This can reach a critical point when it won’t matter if the government says everything is ok. If enough people see people they know sick or dead after all this talk about how we can’t kill the economy forever they will want something more than the government suddenly saying it’s ok to go back to work.
There are some things that are quick to get into but that can take a while to unwind. We passed hard to unwind back before we even realized it. Testing is going to be very important to unwinding this.
frosty (f27e97) — 3/25/2020 @ 8:25 pm164. Thank you. I do take that as a compliment. I’m sort of coming around to not being as much of a doom-and-gloomer as I was last week. We just need to follow through as a nation on the best data we have for now and collect as much data as we can to decide where we need to go moving forward.
Oy. I’m starting to sound like a bureaucrat. 😛
Gryph (08c844) — 3/25/2020 @ 8:26 pmSeoul
Colonel Klink (Ret) (305827) — 3/25/2020 @ 8:26 pm167. I think we all want the same things for ourselves and our loved ones. Stay safe, healthy and employed. That goes for everyone here (except the retirees :P)
Gryph (08c844) — 3/25/2020 @ 8:30 pmGryph (08c844) — 3/25/2020 @ 8:15 pm
I appreciate your comments on social distancing. I’ve given you a pretty hard time on this and I’ve noticed that you’ve changed your position. I might be reading into this conversation parts of our previous ones. I’ll adapt and adjust.
frosty (f27e97) — 3/25/2020 @ 8:31 pmOff Topic:
This is what Stockholm Syndrome looks like.
Gryph (08c844) — 3/25/2020 @ 8:32 pmHow they gonna fund the public employee benefit ponzi scheme now?
They’ll get the money the old-fashioned way. Raise taxes.
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 3/25/2020 @ 8:33 pm171. I still don’t think social distancing alone will save a statistically significant number of lives. My thoughts on that haven’t changed. What has changed is that I’ve figured out something we can do to actually speed up the decline and burn-out of this thing while we are buying ourselves more time. Will those efforts be successful? I don’t know. I certainly hope so. But I think we have a better place to start now than we did a couple of weeks ago.
Gryph (08c844) — 3/25/2020 @ 8:34 pm@173 I’ve taken pot shots at CA before. I still want to but it doesn’t seem as fun now. Not saying other people shouldn’t, not saying I won’t bounce back, but I don’t envy the tax payers in CA.
frosty (f27e97) — 3/25/2020 @ 8:36 pmThe rate of the last ten years of seasonal flu is .01%
Assuming that everyone in the US gets the seasonal flu, which they do NOT. Given the vaccine and the far less contagion, about one in ten get the flu annually, and the death rate is betwee 1 and 2 in 1000 of those cases, or 0.1-0.2%.
It is only 0.01% if you count people who DON’T get the flu, too.
Raw data here: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/past-seasons.html
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 3/25/2020 @ 8:38 pm149. I missed something you said upthread, Frosty. You mentioned that there is a worldwide surveillance network that normally does a pretty good job of tracking back viral outbreaks. I believe there was something in the Oxford Study about how the failure (inability?) to track this particular outbreak is consistent with the idea of artificial attenuation. Unfortunately, the study’s authors do go on to point out that the only way to know for sure would be for the Chinese government (I’m going with them as the presumptive source) to admit what they were doing in their labs. I’m not saying that’s necessarily the case, only that the data we do have is consistent with what we do know. That doesn’t mean it’s proof-positive, and that doesn’t mean someone conspired to genetically engineer a viral weapon.
When you think about it, if China tried to engineer a weapon, they screwed up pretty badly. On the other hand, if they tried to engineer a vaccine (which I personally think is a much more likely scenario), they screwed that up pretty badly too.
Gryph (08c844) — 3/25/2020 @ 8:41 pmI don’t envy the tax payers in CA.
They could move like I did. And they’d be far richer for it.
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 3/25/2020 @ 8:42 pmOr, they didn’t do either, and the thing that it appears to be, is just the thing.
But a conspiracy fantasy is exciting I guess.
Colonel Klink (Ret) (305827) — 3/25/2020 @ 8:43 pm175. Governor Noisome is presiding over one of the most odious socialist ****holes America’s seen in its 244 years of existence. That said, if at some point the nation’s entire economic engine comes to a grinding halt by diktat or otherwise, I think the resulting misery will be a great equalizer.
Gryph (08c844) — 3/25/2020 @ 8:44 pm179. Well, if you have a better idea for why CoViD-19 is so novel that our Federal Overlords seem to not know how to approach it, I’m open to ideas. Not every “conspiracy theory” is untrue just because “conspiracy.”
Gryph (08c844) — 3/25/2020 @ 8:46 pmBy the by Klink, thanks for reading my entire post up there. Douchebag.
Gryph (08c844) — 3/25/2020 @ 8:47 pmbut just a mild sickness hardly worse than the flu
Speak for yourself, Patterico, not for me. I just object to the point-scoring off of Trump who is less culpable than some and probably no worse at this than the husk that was Joe Biden would be. The Chinese lied for 6 goddam weeks. I blame them. They could have have shut down air travel rather than seeding the world with this thing. They could have listened to their doctors who knew the virus was passing from human to human in early December. Instead they said, repeatedly, that it was not and there were no cases of such clear into mid-January and the WHO bought the lies.
Trump has dealt with this better than I (or you) would have thought he would. He could not have done anything like this shutdown during January or February, even if you discount the impeachment trial. No president could have until it was at the point of “Oh God Do Something!”, like it was at the start of March.
It really pisses me off that people are using this, in a time of crisis, to score points of the man that they have never accepted at the President. It’s really not very good at all.
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 3/25/2020 @ 8:52 pm183. Kevin, I am so gott-dang tired of politics…I’m back to my natural default position of looking out for #1.
Gryph (08c844) — 3/25/2020 @ 8:56 pmMe, I think it’s the thing Trumpalos will seize on as intellectual cover for their desire to follow Trump off the cliff.
We agree that anyone who says to end the shutdown on April 12th is an idiot. The criterion is not some stupid date, but the readiness of the medical system. I’d guess that would be sometime in May, but that IS just a guess.
The only thing that IS clear is that things that cannot go on, won’t, and this can’t go on indefinitely. Despite some, I do not view a depression as OK.
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 3/25/2020 @ 8:56 pmGryph (08c844) — 3/25/2020 @ 8:41 pm
I can’t really comment on that without reading the study. I really don’t follow the artificial attenuation theory at all. I’m just guessing but it sounds like artificial attenuation means genetic modification to create a vaccine. I don’t know why a vaccine would be needed for a virus not transmitted by humans. If the virus was serious and transmitted by humans it shouldn’t be novel.
On the other hand, I wouldn’t rule out the Chinese intentionally creating a bioweapon. Not saying they did. Just that it’s more plausible than accidental creation looking for a vaccine to a virus that didn’t infect humans.
frosty (f27e97) — 3/25/2020 @ 8:56 pmThe fact that people view this thing as pro-Trump vs anti-Trump is probably the most depressing thing imaginable.
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 3/25/2020 @ 8:57 pmI’m Joe Biden and I forgot this message.
Joe Biden thinks it’s SARS and Bernie thinks it’s Ebola. It’s pretty terrible when Donald effing Trump is more informed that they are.
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 3/25/2020 @ 8:59 pm186. SARS was a concern in Asia a few years ago. I dunno if you remember, but it made the headline. Back then, it made the leap from animals to humans, and it was generally accepted that happened because of the prevalence of wet markets. What wasn’t in the news back then was that SARS was transmitted as a…wait for it…
Corona-class virus.
Coronavirus is not a disease; it’s a broad group of viruses that can cause a host of diseases, ranging from the common cold to MERS, SARS-1(2002), and now CoViD-19. But here’s the real kicker: CoViD-19 symptoms, in those that get sick, are almost identical to the SARS-1(2002) outbreak that hit Asia around 2002-2003. If you accept Klink’s assertion that it’s all crazy-conspiracy-talk, that is one hell of a coincidence. The biggest difference between CoViD-19 and SARS-1(2002) is the percentage of people with antibodies who are or were seriously ill. The percentage for SARS-1(2002) is much higher.
Gryph (08c844) — 3/25/2020 @ 9:03 pmSARS is part of the scientific name of the Coronavirus, IIRC.
But I think SARS is different from COVID in the context of discussing pandemics, as you can tell from numerous titles on articles comparing the two.
e.g. How does coronavirus compare to SARS and MERS outbreaks?
harkin (b64479) — 3/25/2020 @ 9:08 pm_
Fun fact: In 2012, there was an outbreak of “camel flu” in Saudi Arabia caused by a coronavirus which did prove able to infect camels. Unlike SARS-1(2002) and CoViD-19, the initial cough tends to be productive and fever tends not to spike quite as high, but the similarity in symptoms led a lot of the Middle Eastern press to dub the disease “Saudi Arabian SARS.”
Gryph (08c844) — 3/25/2020 @ 9:09 pmOne instance where social distancing did not impede effect:
https://twitter.com/momuses/status/1242887097976909824?s=20
harkin (b64479) — 3/25/2020 @ 9:11 pm_
190. SARS is the disease. SARS-COV-2 is the technical designation for the virus in the science journals (Sudden Acute Respiratory Syndrome-related Coronavirus Series 2), but CoViD-19 (COronaVIralDisease [2019]) distinguishes this latest outbreak from the earlier one, SARS-1(2002) (Sudden Acute Respiratory Syndrome Series 1 [2002]).
Gryph (08c844) — 3/25/2020 @ 9:12 pmYes!!
Paul Montagu (df60ed) — 3/25/2020 @ 9:13 pmSometimes credentialed experts will use different terms for the same diseases or disease vectors, but a lot of the more jargony terminology stems from efforts to be precise.
Gryph (08c844) — 3/25/2020 @ 9:16 pmGryph (08c844) — 3/25/2020 @ 8:46 pm
Well, I’m not saying this. I’m saying they do have an idea for how to approach this but our federal overlords, like almost everyone, were unable to comprehend the problem fast enough. That’s why I don’t get worked up over the NSC study. The timelines we want to apply in hindsight just aren’t realistic. They are what was needed but no one believed it at the time.
Let me say it another way. I’m pretty sure we have protocols for aliens making contact. Do I think anyone in any administration even asks about them much less has any effective exercises to see if they are feasible? Is a global pandemic more likely than aliens? Yes. How much less likely than a pandemic like this is shaping up to be? I know I’m being ridiculous with the alien comparisons but even now a lot of people do not believe this is as serious as it is shaping up to be. Right now it’s easy to say a terrible pandemic was a lot more likely than aliens. I don’t need Bayes theory to make that adjustment. Two months ago those numbers would not have been the same.
But go read any preppier literature, what any show on the 5 things that will end civilization, etc. A natural global pandemic is always on the list. We don’t need to genetically engineer one. Although those are on the list too and CRISPR, and what the Chinese are willing to do with it, has me a bit concerned.
frosty (f27e97) — 3/25/2020 @ 9:17 pmThat was great, Harkin.
Dustin (b18b7a) — 3/25/2020 @ 9:19 pm196. My bile was directed at Klink, Frosty. I certainly realize that unless and until China is honest about what goes on behind closed doors, anything I can speculate about this virus having originated there is just that: speculation. The thing is, it may be possible for the virus’ origin to have some bearing on its deadliness and ergo how we approach dealing with it. Scientists may be a little hesitant to engage in idle speculation, but every hypothesis starts out unproven.
Gryph (08c844) — 3/25/2020 @ 9:21 pm“ Fun fact: In 2012, there was an outbreak of “camel flu” in Saudi Arabia”
I’m still intrigued by that Coronavirus strain found in Saudi Arabia that was sent to Canada for research purposes and then stolen by Chinese employees and sent to China.
“ On June 13, 2012 a 60-year-old Saudi man was admitted to a private hospital in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, with a 7-day history of fever, cough, expectoration, and shortness of breath. He had no history of cardiopulmonary or renal disease, was receiving no long-term medications, and did not smoke.
Egyptian virologist Dr. Ali Mohamed Zaki isolated and identified a previously unknown coronavirus from his lungs. After routine diagnostics failed to identify the causative agent, Zaki contacted Ron Fouchier, a leading virologist at the Erasmus Medical Center (EMC) in Rotterdam, the Netherlands, for advice…..
……. Coronavirus arrived at Canada’s NML Winnipeg facility on May 4, 2013 from the Dutch lab. The Canadian lab grew up stocks of the virus and used it to assess diagnostic tests being used in Canada. Winnipeg scientists worked to see which animal species can be infected with the new virus.
Research was done in conjunction with the Canadian Food Inspection Agency’s national lab, the National Centre for Foreign Animal Diseases which is housed in the same complex as the National Microbiology Laboratory.
This Winnipeg based Canadian lab was targeted by Chinese agents in what could be termed as Biological Espionage.
In March 2019, in mysterious event a shipment of exceptionally virulent viruses from Canada’s NML ended up in China. The event caused a major scandal with Bio-warfare experts questioning why Canada was sending lethal viruses to China. Scientists from NML said the highly lethal viruses were a potential bio-weapon.
Following investigation, the incident was traced to Chinese agents working at NML. Four months later in July 2019, a group of Chinese virologists were forcibly dispatched from the Canadian National Microbiology Laboratory (NML). The NML is Canada’s only level-4 facility and one of only a few in North America equipped to handle the world’s deadliest diseases, including Ebola, SARS, Coronavirus, etc.”
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/did-china-steal-coronavirus-canada-and-weaponize-it
harkin (b64479) — 3/25/2020 @ 9:22 pm__ _
199. I did not know that. Again with the idle speculation, but I wonder if they thought they were stealing a SARS-1(2002) sample and ended up with the wrong one?
Gryph (08c844) — 3/25/2020 @ 9:24 pm@100:
Frosty, I showed, with a logical argument based on facts and real numbers, that it is illegitimate to use the number of deaths per confirmed cases of this virus as a point of comparison of the severity of this virus vs. the common flu. Having made that case, I said, “Can we please dispense with the mortality rate fear-mongering?”
To which you responded:
First of all, the “end” of my request is built into the request: Stop fear-mongering about the severity of this outbreak by willingly exploiting or unwittingly disseminating completely misleading statistics to make it look manifestly worse than it really is.
In other words, there is NO CHANCE that the mortality rate of this virus will turn out to be higher than it looks now, when we are finally able compare deaths to a realistic estimate of TOTAL (confirmed + unconfirmed) cases — it will unquestionably go way down, the only question being how far down.
Therefore, using these highly misleading numbers in a comparison with the properly calculated flu numbers causes a level of public fear (panic, hysteria, overreacting emotionalism, etc.) that may not seem warranted if one were being more honestly informed about the meaninglessness (at least for purposes of comparison with other viruses) of those so-called “mortality rate” figures based on confirmed cases.
Second, the latter half of your objection — “Are you suggesting we do nothing?…” — seems to imply that we must “do something” regardless of whether the virus is as bad as those fear-mongers suggest or not. My whole point is that if we take a more sensible view of the real meaning of those numbers and their misleading nature when used to compare this virus to the common flu, then we might arrive at a very different conclusion about the need for radical, immediate, reflexive responses — responses which might have long-term ramifications far more damaging to civil society as a whole than the virus itself could ever have.
I am saying that the numbers people (esp. the media) are throwing around are deliberately being used out of context to create a sense of public panic and an urge for immediate radical government action against this virus. I have shown exactly why those numbers are wildly misleading. To which you reply, “But are you saying we don’t have take radical action immediately?”
Yes, that is what I am saying.
Third, you misrepresent me when you suggest I am arguing that we should “not look at the current number of people who’ve died.” I never said that. In fact I think we should. What I said was that we cannot use that number, in conjunction with the number of people who’ve tested positive for the virus, to form a realistic and informative “mortality rate.” That’s not how the mortality rate should be calculated, because it is entirely unlike the way we calculate the mortality rate for the common flu, and thus causes silly comparisons like “This virus is ten times more deadly than the common flu.” No it isn’t, and in fact we have no idea how close their respective mortality rates might end up being when we finally have a more serious estimate of total infections, including people who had or have the virus, but have never been tested.
My point is that rather than playing with fake percentages (mortality rates based on dishonest methods), we ought to look at the real numbers of deaths, and compare those to the common flu, as a means of getting some kind of perspective on this outbreak.
Of course, all deaths by illness are undesirable. But death by illness is a pretty normal, albeit sad, part of human existence. As deadly illnesses go, this coronavirus has been a relative piker so far compared to many, many others, including the common flu. Let’s all hope it stays that way.
In the meantime, an honest look at the real, raw numbers as we have them, rather than at misleading and dishonest “rates” and percentages, and headlines that make each covid-19 death during the height of flu season look like evidence of bubonic plague — headlines have that power on mass perceptions, which is why the media exploits them to mislead people for gain — would probably reduce public panic, and increase public common sense, a hundredfold.
For one thing, we wouldn’t have a rash of so-called conservatives clamoring for the biggest and most unlimited government they can get all of a sudden, acting like drunken progressives on shore leave.
Daren Jonescu (2f5857) — 3/25/2020 @ 9:26 pmEvery time you’re corrected, you go to with the invective. You propose conspiracy and apply magical thinking instead of common sense and logic.
Colonel Klink (Ret) (305827) — 3/25/2020 @ 9:27 pm201. Any thoughts on the Oxford Study, Daren?
Gryph (08c844) — 3/25/2020 @ 9:28 pm202. No. I engage in idle speculation and encourage the best course of action for the most reliable data that we do have. Speculation != conspiracy-mongering. And as for my “invective,” if you don’t like being called a douchebag, don’t behave like one.
Gryph (08c844) — 3/25/2020 @ 9:29 pm“I wonder if they thought they were stealing a SARS-1(2002) sample and ended up with the wrong one?“
_
No idea. But since they reference “viruses” plural in the clandestine shipment, it certainly looks like they ordered the variety pack.
harkin (b64479) — 3/25/2020 @ 9:29 pm_
205. More than one kind of virus? Or just a large quantity in a single viral sample? So many interesting questions that will most likely go unanswered. 😀
Gryph (08c844) — 3/25/2020 @ 9:31 pmIdle speculation does not, can not, lead to the best course of action. You’ve been going on and on about how the virus is much less dangerous than the the current course of action. For days on end.
When you lack knowledge, but preach unthinking action, you are a danger.
How about this, I won’t tell you how to make a 6 inch meatball sub, you don’t tell me about your magical cures and magical conspiracies.
Colonel Klink (Ret) (305827) — 3/25/2020 @ 9:41 pmI can’t explain Trump’s poll numbers, but there are numbers that concern me. Today, we reached four digits in the number of dead Americans from this virus. 247 Americans died today, an increase of 31.7% in just 24 hours. The people of New York, New Orleans and a few other spots have a lot to be concerned about.
Paul Montagu (df60ed) — 3/25/2020 @ 9:41 pm207. Magical cures? At no point did I ever say any of the recommendations were cures. How about you quit putting words into my mouth and I’ll…nevermind. Just quit putting words into my mouth, douchebag.
Gryph (08c844) — 3/25/2020 @ 9:59 pmSocialism rides to the rescue of free market libertarian capitalism! American airlines, boening, goldman sachs et.al. now welfare queens! Socialism for the rich!
rota (4f80bd) — 3/25/2020 @ 10:01 pmThat was beautiful. Thank you.
NJRob (4d595c) — 3/25/2020 @ 10:03 pmHelp me out here, guys. At what point did I say anything in this thread that would make Klink think I had a cure? :-O
Gryph (08c844) — 3/25/2020 @ 10:03 pmDaren Jonescu (2f5857) — 3/25/2020 @ 9:26 pm
Yes and no. If by magic we were able to stop the transmission of the virus today there would still be people that would die from the virus. This is because of the time lag between contracting the virus and dying. Once these numbers get large enough these numbers won’t change much. There is always some number of people that have the virus we don’t know about so in that sense the mortality rate will always be lower than the estimate. I’ve argued before that while we’re dealing with the virus we should compute the estimated death rate using the case counts from 14 days ago, or however long it takes the average death to occur. This is a scarier number that no one wants to use.
I’ve got issues comparing it to the flu but we obviously come down on different sides of this. We usually look at the flu over a year. We may comment during a season that it is worse or better than average based on the numbers so far. It doesn’t seem like we’ve got time to wait for the season to play out to get the best retrospective numbers for this virus.
My biggest concern with comparing this to the normal flu is that I usually see this as a point in time thing as compared to a previous year, i.e. last year 80k ppl died in the US and we aren’t there yet so it isn’t as bad. This ignores the fact that we are at day 86 of the year and this virus is posting numbers in excess of what SARS, MERS, and the normal have posted at day 86? Am I wrong about that? I love for you to tell me that indeed dear frosty every year by day 86 of the regular flu season it’s killed twice as many people as covid19. I think I’m being generous with day 89. The first detected case in the US was day 20.
Examples? Specifics?
If this is a mass delusion caused by media manipulation we might have bigger issues. If that’s the case why isn’t some government somewhere saying we don’t need to do any of this? China locked down several major cities? Was that just an elaborate ruse? They don’t really seem to have a media driven hysteria issue.
I’m more than happy to not compare this to the common flu. I’ve been saying it’s not a valid comparison from the start. I don’t think I’m fear mongering though.
frosty (f27e97) — 3/25/2020 @ 10:10 pmThere are more than one thread, on more than one day You have been promoting chloroquine to be distributed immediately as a cure with zero evidence. It’s been a few hours, but you know that. You’ve also been touting for more than a week that isolation by the “gub’mint” is wrong. That’s a minimal list of your dangerous misinformation.
Reality exists and you live in it. You can now plainly admit you were wrong then, but you cannot claim you didn’t say it now. Well, you can, you’d just be a liar.
Colonel Klink (Ret) (305827) — 3/25/2020 @ 10:13 pmGryph (08c844) — 3/25/2020 @ 10:03 pm
Have you been posting any of the hydro-clro-oxcy whatever stuff. He may have lumped you in. I’ve been ignoring most of the cure and origin stuff except the obvious chicom propaganda. I’m actually not ruling out the Chinese bioweapon theory.
I don’t recall you saying anything about a cure but it can’t hurt to cut Klink some slack. Our conversations up to today haven’t been good natured.
frosty (f27e97) — 3/25/2020 @ 10:20 pmFrosty,
Gryph, like anyone with a heart or a brain, wants all options available including chloroquine to be used in a controlled dose administered by a physician if it doesn’t hurt the patient. It’s a possible treatment and should be looked at accordingly. Where Gryph has shown support for it is in medical compassion situations where something is needed rather than just giving up. Who doesn’t support that?
NJRob (1929af) — 3/25/2020 @ 10:44 pm@210. Shorter: Reaganomics.
DCSCA (797bc0) — 3/25/2020 @ 11:08 pmWonderful post, Harkin.
mg (8cbc69) — 3/26/2020 @ 12:08 amPatterico: In answer to Dana’s question, “Who are these Americans?” you answer:
You put together too many disparate accusations there, as though the people who disagree with your view of this virus (or of Trump) can all be smeared with all of them. That makes your critique seem stronger than it really is, I think, at least with regard to some of those who are disagreeing with your judgment of the situation.
For example, one can agree that the virus is growing exponentially without agreeing that its spread is necessarily the main reason it is overwhelming the health care system. Viruses spread every year — that’s what an epidemic means, and they happen every year with the common flu, to the tune of tens of thousands of deaths and billions of dollars of economic loss.
I believe that in this case, unlike the norm, the system is burdened by the fact that countries are hospitalizing so many who test positive (at least if they exhibit symptoms) even if they are in no immediate danger, rather than merely those whose actual condition requires hospitalization as a means of keeping them from slipping into critical condition. Since we know for a fact that most of those who get this virus, particularly those under 60 without significant underlying conditions, will experience a fairly minor illness (if any), it seems foolhardy to fill hospital beds with those low-risk people, while turning away real at-risk individuals, as has been happening in Italy for instance.
You speak of people who think this is “just a mild sickness hardly worse than the flu.” But that’s misleading, since of course for most — the vast majority — of people who contract this virus, it really is a mild sickness, or none at all. Most people with this virus will never even know they have it. Thus, when you imply that commenters are living on a different planet because they fail to recognize that this is so much “worse than the flu,” you need to clarify what you mean by “worse than the flu.”
Do you mean total deaths? Because then it is obviously not worse than the flu, or certainly not yet.
Do you mean total infections? Because then it is obviously not worse than the flu, or certainly not yet.
Do you mean the percentage of those infected who die or suffer life-threatening symptoms? You may have something there, although those numbers cannot be verified until much later, when we have a better understanding of the total number of infections. And in any case, even if the percentage is higher than the common flu, which it may well turn out to be, this still doesn’t warrant overturning all the premises of your civil society, at least as long as the actual raw numbers remain so relatively low (compared to flu viruses).
Or do you mean the relative attention given this virus in the world media, compared to any other virus in the history of the media? On that standard, this is certainly the worst thing that has ever happened in human history — until and unless we stop listening to the media long enough to look at those real numbers again.
And then you tack on the stuff about “Fake News” targeting a “good guy who reacted super quickly” — in other words, you tie your unclear argument about the numbers to the cultish following for Trump, as though the two issues were essentially inseparable.
I am as far from being a Trump cultist as anyone can be. Like you, I have taken a lot of personal losses and lost a lot of personal readers and opportunities due to my unwillingness to follow my editors and former readers in hopping the Trump Train during 2016. And yet I do believe, and in fact feel quite certain, that (a) this virus does not warrant destroying the rule of law and the economic stability of a generation, and (b) the media is obviously exploiting this story for political gain by making it about Trump, barely (if at all) stopping short of saying he caused the virus and is personally responsible for American deaths, both of which would be absurd.
As for the ironic dichotomy you ascribe to your imaginary opponents at the end of the above quotation — that Trump reacted with perfect speed at the outset and that the virus is a hoax designed to thwart his re-election — the fact is that one can believe neither of those things, but still disagree with your view of the nature and severity of this outbreak, and also of the proper political responses to it.
The essence of political conservatism, if it still has one, lies in the virtue of moderation, which in practical terms means the unwillingness to let the emotions or dire optics of a moment determine public policy. Conservative moderation involves believing, at the deepest level, that “Cooler heads should prevail.” Radical action taken in a knee-jerk fashion — i.e., without knowing all the necessary facts, or on the basis of hyperbole and heightened public emotions — is exactly what a constitutional republic is designed to prevent. Instead, the U.S. Senate — the body created by the Framers for the very purpose of representing moderation in politics — has leapt in to exploit this (barely two-week-old) “crisis” for two trillion dollars of power-grabbing and vote-buying. And state government after state government has jumped at the chance to exert police state powers over their citizens, forcing private businesses to close, cancelling freedom of association indefinitely, and generally treating citizens as serfs, rather than as people they are supposed to represent.
Daren Jonescu (2f5857) — 3/26/2020 @ 12:13 amI wonder what Pelosi’s approval rating is? And should she be held accountable for all that wasn’t done in the last 4 daze? She is an extremely selfish individual. Proving to be deadly dangerous.
mg (8cbc69) — 3/26/2020 @ 3:06 am45- frosty
mg (8cbc69) — 3/26/2020 @ 3:26 amhttps://www.businesstimes.com.sg/technology/china’s-mobile-carriers-lose-15-million-users-as-virus-bites
Is this what you mean?
214. Chloroquine is not a magic cure. I believe it should be on the table as a compassionate-use treatment. My desire for it to be imported and manufactured by as many parties as possible is only on the basis of how serious this outbreak is according to a worst-case scenario. And after days of being mocked for not taking CoViD-19 seriously, I would think you’d be glad that I am now. SMDH
Gryph (08c844) — 3/26/2020 @ 4:43 amI like their planet better than the real one I inhabit. I’d feel a lot safer there.
You probably would.
He went to Planet Claire
I knew he drove to there
He drove a beat-up piece of schiff
Went faster than the speed of light
Planet Claire has sick air
All the trees are dead
Everybody dies there
No one has the cred
Some say he hates Trump
Colonel Haiku (2601c0) — 3/26/2020 @ 4:58 amLoves chocolate like Forrest Gump
He’ll cast his vote for any chump what hates him
Well, ain’t lyin’!
He went to Planet Claire
He went to Planet Claire
He went to Planet Claire
Frosty,
These people say it doesn’t look man made.
They’re real people, they’ve put their names on their opinion, and they’ve put their reasoning and data out for all to see. I’m not qualified to opine on their work. But right now we have real people who’ve put their names on their work vs. vague concerns and conspiracy theories. You’re smart and you reach conclusion through data. so I wanted to put this out there.
Time123 (69b2fc) — 3/26/2020 @ 5:06 amColonel Klink, this is a straw man.
Make America Ordered Again (23f793) — 3/26/2020 @ 5:06 amI’m in moderation again. This time I think it’s for too many links
[Found it and released it. It was the number of links that caused it to go to moderation. Four is the most links you can include in one comment. Five links puts it in moderation because spam comments often have multiple links.]
Time123 (f5cf77) — 3/26/2020 @ 5:10 amWake up!!! https://youtu.be/47YAcpCa5dM
Colonel Haiku (2601c0) — 3/26/2020 @ 5:26 amNJRob (1929af) — 3/25/2020 @ 10:44 pm
I think Klink is taking a harder line on that than I am. I certainly support possible treatments and exploring options. My comment was that I haven’t really been paying attention to that in these threads.
frosty (f27e97) — 3/26/2020 @ 6:06 amDo you have any evidence of this? It makes no sense for a hospital to overwhelm themselves incorrectly treating non-critical patients. This is even less likely considering the widespread reports of doctors saying not to report to hospitals or other providers absent serious symptoms. I’ve been told Atlanta has run out of ICU beds. The medical community in Atlanta seems perfectly capable of only using those for people who actually need critical care. I’ve joked about northerners but that doesn’t mean I think they’d use up capacity on non-critical patients, same for Italy, France, Spain, UK, any other country in the EU, etc. The more I think about this one the more I wonder if you are arguing in good faith. I’ll assume you are. I’d like to see some evidence for this.
Given the rate of growth, when this becomes true it will be well past too late.
There are two problems here. You are criticizing people for overstating the issue and then you overstate the issue. We aren’t overturning all the premises of our civil society. Also, absolute raw numbers aren’t the whole story and as I’ve said, based on the rate of growth, this virus shows the potential to exceed the common flu much earlier in the season, and it might not even have a season. If we waited and it was, by your standard, worse than the flu in May with no signs of slacking off we’d already be underwater. Especially since this virus didn’t replace the common flu, it’s not even a flu, so the system has to deal with that as well.
frosty (f27e97) — 3/26/2020 @ 6:27 ammg (8cbc69) — 3/26/2020 @ 3:26 am
Yep. From what I can find there are almost as many migrant workers moving around China as people in the US so 15m may be a small number. It’s entirely possible all of the drop could be caused by migrant workers.
But there’s also the rumor going around that a lot of covid deaths are hiding in those numbers.
frosty (f27e97) — 3/26/2020 @ 6:35 amhttps://www.foxnews.com/politics/us-was-most-prepared-country-in-the-world-for-pandemics-johns-hopkins-study-found-in-2019
Couldn’t find this link before, but here you go. Possible explanations for Trump’s increasing support as well as his optimistic take on our liberties and work ethic.
NJRob (f6c67f) — 3/26/2020 @ 6:35 amDaren Jonescu (2f5857) — 3/25/2020 @ 9:26 pm
Let’s run some different numbers. The CDC estimates that 38k people died from the flu in 2016-17, 61k in 2017-18, and 34k in 2018-19. That translates to 104, 167, 93 deaths per day respectively. If you think the season is shorter then that’s 208, 334, and 186 for a 6 month season. Still too big a season? That breaks down to 422, 677, and 377 per day over a 90 day period. Obviously, those numbers aren’t normally distributed but they are instructive.
Yesterday the US reported 253 in the last 24 hours. Italy reported 683 in the last 24 hours over a smaller population. Spain reported 655 over an even smaller population.
It would be much better to compare day for day growths. Something like the comparison of global deaths from here in the show more graphs section. Do you have anything like that where we could see that in fact on day X of the spread how the deaths compared to the common flu?
frosty (f27e97) — 3/26/2020 @ 7:16 am231. Even in day-to-day growths, the worst-case-scenarios coming out of Italy and UK are base on suspect numbers, to put it mildly. Reporting is so sloppy in Italy, it’s hard to tell with any certainty how many of the deaths attributed to CoViD-19 were actually caused by it.
Now, I understand the reluctance of some people to be optimistic based on the strength of the Oxford Study(or lack thereof, such as it is), but I do think the utility of the Oxford Study is equally in pointing out faulty assumptions as it is pointing out what we do know. I still believe now as ever that economic suicide is not warranted. I still believe that handing yet more power over to the federal government out of a sense of blind panic is a mistake.
Gryph (08c844) — 3/26/2020 @ 7:33 amI was walking today and saw a woman walking in scrubs. I was so grateful for her work I wanted to kiss her.
Then I saw a hot chick picking up takeout. I wanted to kiss her too.
Man, I can’t wait for this pandemic to be over.
Make America Ordered Again (23f793) — 3/26/2020 @ 7:33 amThese people say it doesn’t look man made.
They’re real people, they’ve put their names on their opinion, and they’ve put their reasoning and data out for all to see. I’m not qualified to opine on their work. But right now we have real people who’ve put their names on their work vs. vague concerns and conspiracy theories. You’re smart and you reach conclusion through data. so I wanted to put this out there.
The analysis of public genome sequence data from SARS-CoV-2 and related viruses found no evidence that the virus was made in a laboratory or otherwise engineered.
“By comparing the available genome sequence data for known coronavirus strains, we can firmly determine that SARS-CoV-2 originated through natural processes,” said Kristian Andersen, PhD, an associate professor of immunology and microbiology at Scripps Research and corresponding author on the paper.
In addition to Andersen, authors on the paper, “The proximal origin of SARS-CoV-2,” include Robert F. Garry, of Tulane University; Edward Holmes, of the University of Sydney; Andrew Rambaut, of University of Edinburgh; W. Ian Lipkin, of Columbia University.
Re posting without links to see if that get’s it out of moderation.
Time123 (f5cf77) — 3/26/2020 @ 7:34 am234. Got news for you, Time; analysis of genomic sequence data can not conclusively prove that a virus has been attenuated. The people putting their names on that paper are looking for the wrong evidence. Does hard proof exist that CoViD-19 originated in a laboratory? Maybe not. That would be asking to prove a negative anyway.
So let me ask the folks out there who may be more knowledgeable than I am, when was the last time a wild disease vector caused such a low percentage of disease in the people that it infects? I get that not all disease vectors cause disease all the time, but this low? It’s a first, that I’m aware of.
I’m simply proposing that some lab could have tried to come up with a vaccine rather than a weapon. That seems a lot less out-there to me. As always YMMV.
Gryph (08c844) — 3/26/2020 @ 7:42 amI see Mayor Garcetti’s displaying the common sense/critical thinking skills L.A. has become famous for over the last decade.
Colonel Haiku (2601c0) — 3/26/2020 @ 7:46 amEntirely plausible, in which case they’d study natural viruses, and could have let one escape containment in such a way a human came in contact.
Make America Ordered Again (23f793) — 3/26/2020 @ 7:46 amYou’re 100% wrong. Proving that it came from a lab would require proof that it came from a lab.
Any reason to believe your assessment of this work, that the people are looking in the wrong space, is more accurate the the people who published the paper?
Time123 (f5cf77) — 3/26/2020 @ 7:50 am238. Realistically we’ll probably never know for sure. I hardly trust our own government to be honest about such things, let alone a bunch of Chinese communists.
Gryph (08c844) — 3/26/2020 @ 7:51 amGuys… the UK expert estimating 500,000 deaths… is now walking that back:
whembly (51f28e) — 3/26/2020 @ 7:52 amhttps://www.newscientist.com/article/2238578-uk-has-enough-intensive-care-units-for-coronavirus-expert-predicts/
On March 23rd, Shaun Attwood’s YouTube channel published “Is Coronavirus A Bioweapon? Dr Paul Cottrell” which is making a very strong case for an engineered virus based on the homology between it and other viruses. I’d send a link, but can’t get it through moderation. You should be able to find it by searching it in quotes.
Make America Ordered Again (23f793) — 3/26/2020 @ 7:54 amDo either of you have anything that resembles evidence that this happened? Not proof, just evidence?
Time123 (f5cf77) — 3/26/2020 @ 7:55 am239. 100% wrong. Okay. I’ll just throw my hands up and walk away. I guess mother nature just spontaneously decided to do something she’s never done before (to my knowledge) and start throwing naturally attenuated viruses at us. And that paper obviously proves a negative (that CoViD-19 did not come from a lab) because you say it did. SMDH
“There is no proof that it came from a lab” != “It didn’t come from a lab”
And…
“It’s reasonable to think it might have come from a lab” != “It came from a lab”
Gryph (08c844) — 3/26/2020 @ 7:55 amExactly. And if we did cause a virus to escape containment by mistake (the concern for same caused the CDC to shut down Fort Detrick’s operations in August), of this gravity, we’d hardly just cop to it. We’d engage in hard core propaganda, too, and likely an operation to shift blame.
Make America Ordered Again (23f793) — 3/26/2020 @ 7:56 amCottrell thinks it was released by the Wuhan lab, incidentally.
Make America Ordered Again (23f793) — 3/26/2020 @ 7:59 am243. You’re confusing “evidence” with “proof.” The idea that viral attenuation has never happened to this degree naturally (and anyone out there with a counterexample is free to point it out to me) is rather strong evidence to me that someone was fiddling with SARS-1(2002) samples that got out of control, but it’s not proof in the sense of being scientifically certain. I don’t know why so many people are so aggressively opposed to expressing such an idea.
Gryph (08c844) — 3/26/2020 @ 7:59 amTime123 (f5cf77) — 3/26/2020 @ 7:34 am
I agree with everything you’ve got there. I don’t think it’s an engineered virus. Entertaining the idea that it was engineered doesn’t change any decision I’m currently making which is my test for whether a conspiracy theory is safe.
frosty (f27e97) — 3/26/2020 @ 8:02 amhttps://www.linkedin.com/in/paulcottrell156/
@242, Paul Cottrell’s doctorate is in finance. According to his Linked in he’s currently a future medical student and spent the last 8 years doing fundraising for Catholic charities. Not to say there’s anything wrong with that, but it doesn’t give him much credibility in bio-weapon research. Did the podcast have any other experts on or was it just him?
Time123 (69b2fc) — 3/26/2020 @ 8:02 amCircumstantial, sure. Where is China’s top biosafety lab?
Make America Ordered Again (23f793) — 3/26/2020 @ 8:03 am248. Even if it were true, it doesn’t change my thoughts on how to handle it. My three-legged stool still stands. Serological testing (which as of today is still not going on in the United States), chloroquine supplies to be used at individual doctors’ discretion, and reasonable social distancing sans economic suicide.
Gryph (08c844) — 3/26/2020 @ 8:04 amYes, he’s an extremely smart guy who’s studied a lot of of viral homology for lab research and is going for his medical degree next. Feel free to listen to his actual argument.
He didn’t say it was a bioweapon. He said it’s engineered.
Make America Ordered Again (23f793) — 3/26/2020 @ 8:04 am242. Bioweapon research. There you go again. I never ever proposed that CoViD-19 was developed as a bioweapon, or intended as such. Never. And as I am pointing out that it may have been artificially attenuated, to say “it’s not an engineered virus” is a gross mischaracterization of my assertion on multiple levels. Viral attenuation has nothing to do at all with weaponizing a virus; quite the opposite is true.
Gryph (08c844) — 3/26/2020 @ 8:06 amJust watch the first 22 minutes and come back, Time123. You’ll see his point (two, really).
Make America Ordered Again (23f793) — 3/26/2020 @ 8:06 amPlaying by Chicago Rules… https://static.pjmedia.com/instapundit/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/winnieflusmollett.jpg
Colonel Haiku (2601c0) — 3/26/2020 @ 8:06 amYou also engineer viruses for research purposes. It doesn’t have to be intended as a bioweapon.
Make America Ordered Again (23f793) — 3/26/2020 @ 8:07 am256. Viral genomes have been sequenced for study as bioweapons and as a means of attenuation research, but attenuation is not “engineering” in the sense that I normally understand it. The concept of viral attenuation has been around a lot longer than genetic engineering.
Gryph (08c844) — 3/26/2020 @ 8:09 amGryph (08c844) — 3/26/2020 @ 7:55 am
I haven’t read that report yet. Getting closer since the coffee is brewing. But I think you are misinterpreting this. All of the evidence we have so far is that this virus jumped species sometime late in 2019. This species jumping has absolutely happened before.
frosty (f27e97) — 3/26/2020 @ 8:09 amThat you’re aware of. Not that exists.
Make America Ordered Again (23f793) — 3/26/2020 @ 8:10 am258. The only evidence that we have that the virus “jumped species” is the presence of wet markets in and around Wuhan, and the explanations coming from the Chinese communist government. The one virus that we absolutely know with scientific certainty jumped species in China happens to be SARS-1(2002), a virus that suspiciously causes almost identical symptoms to CoViD-19 in people who get seriously ill.
This really wasn’t all that much more than an interesting thought exercise to begin with. But I really can’t figure out for the life of me why some people seem so threatened by the idea that this virus may not actually be a natural phenomenon. If that were somehow definitively proven to be the case, what would it change? It’s almost like when this gets brought up, certain individuals feel insulted or threatened. SMDH
Gryph (08c844) — 3/26/2020 @ 8:15 amMake America Ordered Again (23f793) — 3/26/2020 @ 8:10 am
I don’t play this game with scientific data. I do my best to make decisions based on the data I have.
I may be willing to discuss various things as hypotheticals and theories for fun but there are limits to that. Going down the road your on means I need to review my weapons locker to make sure I can take out the Predator and I’ve got to rethink my entire landmine plan if the Chinese have figured out anti-gravity.
frosty (f27e97) — 3/26/2020 @ 8:20 amFeel free not to think independently, frosty.
Make America Ordered Again (23f793) — 3/26/2020 @ 8:23 am261. Sheeple. Heh. Thanks for the laugh. But I’d appreciate it if in the future you try to keep the straw men to a minimum.
Gryph (08c844) — 3/26/2020 @ 8:37 amGryph and Maoa, Neither of you have provided any credible evidence that this is not a naturally occurring virus. You’ve got questions, and theories, but no answers.
I’ve provided a link to actual evidence that it’s naturally occurring. It’s far from the only source. Feel free to share your theories with the people that wrote it. Let me know if you the situation changes and you find some evidence.
Time123 (69b2fc) — 3/26/2020 @ 9:06 amPeople! Learn what a straw man fallacy IS. It has a meaning. Learn it!
Ragspierre (d9bec9) — 3/26/2020 @ 9:08 amAt current count, there have been 8 confirmed cases of coronavirus in Hidalgo County, one of the largest counties in Texas. As a result, mayors have ordered all nonessential businesses closed throughout the Rio Grande Valley, an area larger than several small states combined. Practically everything is shut down.
HEB is still open though, but all entrance doors are closed, except one. There’s guard outside the door. Customers have to stand in line six feet apart, and he will only allow up to five enter, after other customers exit. The shelves are well stocked, but there’s hardly anyone in the store at any given time.
This is insane. It’s panic based on false information.
Anyway, it looks like we’ll be getting some of that stimulus money. The county commissioner sent us an application letter yesterday. That’s because it doesn’t look like anyone is going to be buying a house anytime soon, and selling houses is our only source of income. Realtors only get paid commissions after closing and funding. We don’t work on a salary. If people are not buying homes, we don’t get paid. So while technically employed, we might as well be unemployed, because we might hot have any commission checks for months. And summer is always the season with the highest sales volume. Mortgage and title companies are under the same duress.
You want to destroy the economy? Wreck the real estate market. That’s what these idiot politicians are doing. If you think the financial crisis in the 1980s was bad, we’re heading for something much worse, a severe recession or a greater depression.
You can’t just close businesses, schools, churches, hotels, restaurants and bars, cancel sporting events in the hope this virus will go away. It’s economic suicide.
Let me tell you what’s going to happen if we continue along this idiotic path. Home values will plummet, banks will fail, businesses will close, then what? Throwing $2 trillion at the problem is not going to change the outcome. The federal government is already running $1 trillion deficits, and you want to add another $2 trillion on top of that? That’s like the entire GDP of the United States! How do you expect us in this generation and those in future generations to pay for all this madness and paranoia?
The American people seldom get the government they deserve, but they always get the government they elect. And look at the government we have elected, at all levels.
Gawain's Ghost (b25cd1) — 3/26/2020 @ 10:12 amYou’re arguing by assertion and appeals to authority.
Make America Ordered Again (23f793) — 3/26/2020 @ 10:13 amIn case anyone wonders why Trump’s numbers might go up.
https://mobile.twitter.com/guypbenson/status/1243217870168956930/photo/1
The media continue to embarrass themselves daily by making everything about Trump and trying to find ways to cast it as negatively as possible. The other day it truly seemed they were more interested in creating petty friction between Trump and his advisors than they were in getting info about the virus response.
This resonates with viewers but in the exact opposite way from their intentions.
Over three years of crying wolf about everything from feeding koi to collusion and giving 80% of the priority in Nov-thru-Jan to impeachment instead of a virus trouble in China makes many people ignore Trump’s very real failings.
I firmly expect them to continue in this fashion thru the election.
harkin (b64479) — 3/26/2020 @ 10:26 am_
Americans pull together in hard times but the media are contrarians. Lawyers, too. I bet lawyers would be underwater, too, in a poll. That doesn’t mean we don’t need them.
DRJ (15874d) — 3/26/2020 @ 10:33 amTrump’s approval rating went up because people see he is doing some good things or partially good things, and there wasn’t want that factor before, and because he’s speaking proportionately less nonsense. When he switch from saying “it it not a going to be a problem and it would all go away soon” to “it’s a problem, but I browbeat the FDA into authorizing the use of an unapproved medication” his job approval rating had to go up.
Sammy Finkelman (db2a13) — 3/26/2020 @ 10:47 amSammy! I hope things are going well for you in NY!
…and, I agree with your assessment.
Additionally, it could also be a “rallying” effect that the nation does in times of crisis too.
whembly (51f28e) — 3/26/2020 @ 10:50 am“ I was walking today and saw a woman walking in scrubs. I was so grateful for her work I wanted to kiss her.
Then I saw a hot chick picking up takeout. I wanted to kiss her too.
Man, I can’t wait for this pandemic to be over.”
What we have here is a one man, walking #metoo pandemic!
Colonel Haiku (2601c0) — 3/26/2020 @ 11:49 amAmericans pull together in hard times but the media are contrarians. Lawyers, too. I bet lawyers would be underwater, too, in a poll. That doesn’t mean we don’t need them.
Underwater is a good place for them, they make great boat anchors…
I keed, I keed!
Colonel Haiku (2601c0) — 3/26/2020 @ 11:52 am269. Americans pull together in hard times but the media are contrarians.
ROFLMAO These media contrarian-types were really rooting for the Axis, weren’t they…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9BlZ0O6Fx8U
DCSCA (797bc0) — 3/26/2020 @ 12:05 pmIt also goes up when the reporters continue a drumbeat of ‘look how horrible he is!’ regardless if he’s being clueless, petulant, inconsistent, productive, positive or anything in between, continuing to be completely oblivious that they themselves are often coming off as even more horrible than how they seek to portray a duly-elected President that they just can’t allow to remain in office.
It adds up and people tune out.
This was a huge factor in getting Trump elected and has at least a decent shot of getting him re-elected and they are so blinded by TDS they can’t see it, not even after over three years of results being counter to intentions.
They don’t understand that just by reporting the facts Trump would be coming off as worse in the eyes of the news consumer but by the need to negatively embellish, slant or even smear Trump at every step they’ve diluted their own influence to the point that many of the independents and moderate conservatives who can swing an election don’t trust them at all.
The same goes for those who seem to actually be celebrating unemployment and stock market numbers that are almost solely the result of a major pandemic. The same people condemning those encouraging America to back to work ASAP (therefore endangering lives) are almost gleeful that so many have been hit so hard economically if it means Trump’s numbers take a hit. Yeah, they care about Americans.
harkin (b64479) — 3/26/2020 @ 12:09 pm_
But can we believe our lying eyes, harkin?
That little CBS News bimbo at yesterday’s briefing was one more example of a clueless media rep.
Colonel Haiku (2601c0) — 3/26/2020 @ 12:15 pmTrump lied to us, telling us the virus is a hoax, and now demands a video of that statement be deleted from the internet.
https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-campaign-remove-video-saying-coronavirus-hoax-2020-3
As Trump politicizes the virus, even crossing out the name and replacing with “China” like a child, we’re not supposed to quote Trump and point out how he made things so much worse economically. If you do point out Trump’s economy in Trump’s pandemic, why you’re just hoping it’s real real bad. Trump critics are just unpatriotic and evil. To the loyal fans, there is no other way to process information that doesn’t glorify Trump.
Trump’s doing all the messaging he can to boost his polls with a rally around the flag effect. Remove all reference to how Trump did his job (or didn’t do his job) and say China as much as possible to deflect. If you criticize Trump… you are defending China and hope everyone gets sick!
That Trump fans say this, or maybe even believe it, shows how difficult it is to process voting for the worst president in American history.
Dustin (928d9a) — 3/26/2020 @ 12:44 pmDustin, Trump didn’t call the virus a hoax.
But I don’t think you’re a CCP honk when you criticize Trump.
whembly (fd57f6) — 3/26/2020 @ 12:52 pmIt’s clear from context that he was calling criticism of his lack of response on Jan/Feb a hoax and saying that the concern was false and that there was little risk.
Time123 (f5cf77) — 3/26/2020 @ 1:03 pmDustin, Trump didn’t call the virus a hoax.
Perhaps…
But he damned sure let his myrmidons do it without a peep of contradiction.
Ragspierre (d9bec9) — 3/26/2020 @ 1:05 pm@279. Yes, agreed.
His initial response was wrong, and since then he adjusted.
whembly (fd57f6) — 3/26/2020 @ 1:07 pmHis initial response was wrong, and since then he adjusted.
Yes. Now he’s find new ways to be wrong and screw up. It’s his character, and character IS destiny
Ragspierre (d9bec9) — 3/26/2020 @ 4:37 pm.
Gryph (@203):
Thanks for the question, Gryph, but I believe you and I are now talking in someone else’s echo chamber, and the echoes are drowning out all reason, moderation, or respect for liberty and the dignity of the individual. I’m frankly tired of stating the obvious, or the carefully reasoned, over and over again, only to be met with media-stoked hysteria, out-of-control Trump hatred (I dislike him too, but not with the kind of blindness that makes me think he is causing coronavirus deaths — hatred is never a good condition for thinking), or childish invective from trolls on a talking-points loop.
I don’t have any more time to waste talking to myself here. I’m too busy thinking about all the friends and students I might have to help out financially over the next while, as they lose their jobs, their churches, or their small businesses, thanks to mass hysteria over a friggin’ virus. And that’s just here in Korea, where the current socialist government has handled this situation with far more restraint and respect for individual freedom than you are getting from the so-called defenders of liberty and limited government in America.
God bless you, and if you will take my advice, offered sincerely and respectfully, take a break from this discussion. You aren’t convincing anyone (though you are speaking the truth). If anything, you are just getting their backs up so that they’ll become even more entrenched in their emotionalism, hysteria, or out-of-control Trump hatred.
In the end, time and reality will sort this out, and probably prove us right. And then most of the people here will undoubtedly invent some rationalization about how the fact that they were wrong is evidence that they were exactly right. Humans are good at that. Even, all too often, humans we like and respect.
Daren Jonescu (2f5857) — 3/26/2020 @ 8:05 pmDid the word “hoax” come out of his mouth when talking about the virus? Yes. Can we quibble about what he really meant? Always. The notion that Trump took this pandemic seriously in January is frankly absurd. Then, and now, all that matters to Trump is Trump. The only nexus to our lives is that he needs to be reelected for his ego’s sake.
The economic situation is dreadful. Viruses don’t usually do this, and when they do, our response to them is part of the damage, of course. You’re correct that at this point, everyone’s just going to rationalize that their approach was appropriate. Unless things are horribly bad and our efforts to slow the spread don’t make a dent. So let’s hope you feel like you were right in a few months. Sincerely.
Dustin (928d9a) — 3/26/2020 @ 8:20 pmMy daughter’s mother is being redeployed from the clinic to the floor starting next week, so pardon me if I worry more about a “friggin virus” than I do about you “thinking about all the friends and students [you] might have to help out financially over the next while, as they lose their jobs, their churches, or their small businesses”, or whether you are a prophet without honor on the internet.
In the first place, we are only just talking here and in the second place … I’ll just leave it there.
nk (1d9030) — 3/26/2020 @ 8:29 pmAnd then I clicked on your personal link…and +1,000 on on all doubt.
Colonel Klink (Ret) (305827) — 3/26/2020 @ 8:52 pmnk, is she in Chicago? I hope she’s alright, and I’m sure you’re proud. A whole lot of parents are watching their kiddos play video games instead of save the day, if that’s any consolation.
Dustin (928d9a) — 3/26/2020 @ 8:53 pmSorry for the confusion, Dustin. I’m talking about the mother of my daughter. I refuse to call her my “ex-wife”. She’s the doctor in Chicago.
Our daughter is a high school senior with her school on lockdown and we are forcing her to sit on the couch and play video games, but we’re proud of her anyway.
nk (1d9030) — 3/26/2020 @ 9:26 pm