Patterico's Pontifications

3/15/2020

Dow Futures Tank; Market Set for a Brutal Monday

Filed under: General — Patterico @ 10:45 pm



I sincerely hope none of my readers was counting on stocks in the near term for anything important.

Investors were unassuaged by news that the Federal Reserve is cutting interest rates to near zero. US stock futures dropped 5% Sunday evening, hitting the “limit down,” meaning they can’t fall any further.

Dow (INDU) futures plummeted and were last down 1,041 points, or about 4.5%. S&P 500 (SPX) futures were down about 4.8% , while Nasdaq (COMP) futures were down 4.5%.

Last week all three indexes fell into a bear market, declining more than 20% from their recent peak.

Tomorrow is going to be a very, very, very ugly day for the stock market. Many people who had hourly wage jobs going into the weekend will hit tomorrow with nothing.

You might recall I told you a very bleak economic time was coming. Not everyone agreed. I have worse news: it will still get worse — far worse — before it gets better.

I take no joy in saying this. I am just being realistic. We’re all in it together.

UPDATE: You know, I shouldn’t predict what stocks will do on a particular day. Yes, the market will open in the basement, but I can’t predict the whole day and I don’t pretend to. Maybe the sharks use tomorrow to fleece the suckers before the bigger hit comes later in the week. But I’m telling you: the immediate future is very, very bleak.

262 Responses to “Dow Futures Tank; Market Set for a Brutal Monday”

  1. It is crass to do political analysis, but this is a political blog. No way Trump survives this. He is toast in November. Toast.

    Patterico (115b1f)

  2. UPDATE: You know, I shouldn’t predict what stocks will do on a particular day. Yes, the market will open in the basement, but I can’t predict the whole day and I don’t pretend to. Maybe the sharks use tomorrow to fleece the suckers before the bigger hit comes later in the week. But I’m telling you: the immediate future is very, very bleak.

    Patterico (115b1f)

  3. People who are close to needing their money should not be invested in the stock market to begin with.

    norcal (a5428a)

  4. We have not seen an economic picture like this in our lifetimes. I think the Great Depression is not a ridiculous parallel. There’s no way around it. Whether we do the wise thing vis-a-vis our health or not, the economy is about to tank and there is not a damned thing anyone can do about it.

    Patterico (115b1f)

  5. People who are close to needing their money should not be invested in the stock market to begin with.

    This is true, but it’s not how people behave in the real world, unfortunately, and Internet reproaches help nothing.

    Patterico (115b1f)

  6. People who are close to needing their money should not be invested in the stock market to begin with.

    There’s a reason I took a chunk of money out at the end of last year and the beginning of this year and it’s not because I was paying attention to the coronavirus and saw this all coming. It was a combination of needing cash because of a daughter in college, and Trump’s lunacy making me nervous.

    Patterico (115b1f)

  7. All I can say is, what I left in, I could afford to leave in for years. And thank God, because I will have to. This will take years to recover from. Five? Ten? Who knows? But years.

    Patterico (115b1f)

  8. 4. Patterico (115b1f) — 3/15/2020 @ 10:51 pm

    We have not seen an economic picture like this in our lifetimes. I think the Great Depression is not a ridiculous parallel.

    No te=he Great Depression. August 1914, without the war.

    Sammy Finkelman (e4c3a1)

  9. Lawrence Kudlow predicted a V shaped recession.

    Which could happen, if all these coronovirus inspired measures were reversed in a few months. But why should anyone expect that? It won’t happen because the disease goes away.

    Sammy Finkelman (e4c3a1)

  10. Internet reproaches help nothing

    I apologize for being callous.

    norcal (a5428a)

  11. Seems like just a couple of days ago the Great Orange One was crowing about the Largest Single Day Gain in History. What a jackass.

    Much pain ahead. Even if the virus fizzles, the trainwreck that all the shut downs is causing will have ramifications that will be felt for years. This is the black swan of epic proportions, and no reality TV bluster is going to bring us out of it.

    Glenn (a56320)

  12. “It’s a very contagious virus. It’s incredible. But it’s something we have tremendous control of.”
    – The Imbecile in Chief, yesterday

    Dave (1bb933)

  13. Kudlow said “buy the dip”. At least twice on different occasions.

    It would be rational to believe he meant “vote for Trump”.

    “Buy the dip!” Not.

    Ragspierre (d9bec9)

  14. With unprecedented force and speed, a global recession is likely taking hold–WaPo

    That piece points out that Europe and Japan are sick, too.

    Ragspierre (d9bec9)

  15. Reaganomics.

    Trickle-down means pissed on.

    Not in the market- the ’87 crash was a grand lesson; particularly when literally watching fear and panic move up NYC’s 6th Avenue from Wall St. But memories down there are short and every 25 years or so a re-education is necessary. 2008 should have taught younger turks a more recent and valuable lesson– and the value of gold.

    Lawrence Kudlow predicted a V shaped recession.

    With plenty of pilots to pick from, you don’t chose the drunk to fly Air Force One; nor a snowman who ‘blew’ $100,000/month on a cocaine habit as your Director of America’s National Economic Council.

    No way Trump survives this. He is toast in November. Toast.

    Then again, ‘Trump Luck’ still echoes from 2016… no way he wins; until he won. November, 2020 is nearly 8 months away- a ‘lifetime’ in the global and economic and news cycles of the 21st century.

    I think the Great Depression is not a ridiculous parallel.

    It’s a stretch; but when the U.S. Treasury stops minting nickels-as in 1932 and 1933- then it might be time to worry.

    http://great-depression-facts.com/

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  16. Bear in mind that if the Dow falls a full 10%, it will still be at about the same level it was when Trump took office. I know 2017 seems like ancient history, but…

    People are not spending money, either because they are afraid of going out in public places where they may catch the virus, or because they are cutting spending in anticipation of the economic downturn. Which means people with hourly wage jobs will be hurting no matter what the stock market does.

    If the economy starts to pick up again by the end of summer, Trump will be re-elected, because people will take this as an aberration.

    Kishnevi (474313)

  17. Allahpundit, who is a even more depressed than usual because of the idiots who are continuing to pack bars, restaurants, concerts, etc, quotes one of his Twitter friends:

    Imagine being in a global war where all we need to do to win is stay at home, eat a pack of noodles and binge watch Netflix and we’re still somehow losing it.

    AP’s article has good links to various demonstrations of how social distancing can save us. Well worth reading.

    Dave (1bb933)

  18. @16. Yep. Hurricanes, blizzards, tornadoes, forest fires, quakes… and an impeachment… preaching doom and gloom seems almost a desperate try to stick it to Trump. Sure, he’s an adulterous doofus who cheats on his wives and at golf, but he’s not a plagiarist, gaffe prone swamp creature. Loys of frowns on CNBC and FBN… but gold is up!

    These TeeVee talking heads are frothing at their mouths with irrational fear, negativity and panic. This has not been our media’s finest hour.

    “It was the TV.” – Nurse Diesel [Cloris Leachman] ‘High Anxiety’ 1977

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  19. These are some pretty bleak numbers:

    Markets in Asia Pacific were rocked by data showing the Chinese economy has been hit harder than expected by the coronavirus outbreak.

    Retail sales in China plunged 20.5% in the January-to-February period from a year earlier, much worse than the forecast 0.8% rise by analysts polled by Reuters, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.

    Industrial output also fell 13.5% during the same period, while fixed asset investment plunged 24.5%, both widely missing estimates.

    Dave (1bb933)

  20. the economy is about to tank and there is not a damned thing anyone can do about it.

    Why? This virus thing, too, will pass. The economy itself is not permanently affected; no underlying instability (e.g. a home mortgage scam) has been exposed. Other than Donald Trump or Joe Biden, that is. Sure, there’s a deficit, but that’s built-in and accepted by most and we are never getting back to hard money.

    This is what has historically been known as a “panic” and absent the things that used to happen (e.g. banks failing and savings being wiped out) it won’t last. See December 2018 for the last one.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  21. If the economy starts to pick up again by the end of summer, Trump will be re-elected, because people will take this as an aberration.

    Which is why Democrats and others are so willing to talk the economy down and add to the panic.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  22. I wonder if I could get a good correlation between #neverTrump and #Meltdown. They’ve been waiting to be proved right since November 2016.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  23. All I can say is, what I left in, I could afford to leave in for years. And thank God, because I will have to. This will take years to recover from. Five? Ten? Who knows? But years.

    Last time (December 2018) it took all of 2 months to reach the previous levels. I urge people not to play the market based on their like or dislike for the president. Obama was a feckless jerk, but the market did quite well after 2009. The DOW only doubled, but the FANGs went up 20-fold.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  24. Easy come, easy go. The Dow was at 19,827 on January 20, 2017. It had gone up to 29,398 by February 14, 2020. That’s a 32% increase in three years explained by no legitimate economic reason. (No, the dollar being worth 32% less is not a legitimate economic reason.) The alarms should have blared without the Wuhan virus, and long before too.

    nk (1d9030)

  25. I’d like to raise a few points here that I’m not seeing raised in most alternative media outlets.

    We have what, for all intents and purposes, is a controlled experiment in covid-19 transmission: The Diamond Princess. Among 3711 people on board, 634 tested positive. This would seem to confirm my suspicion that all this “social distancing” bulls**t is just that — bulls**t. If you can not absolutely and 100% isolate yourself from anyone who so much as might be a carrier, you will probably be exposed to and at some point test positive for covid-19.

    Given how the numbers ran, it should be possible to also determine what percentage of individuals who have tested positive will remain asymptomatic. Guess what? It’s been done and the information is in the public domain.

    So, what do we know so far? We know that covid-19 is extremely virulent, insofar as it’s easy to transmit. We also know (for those of you in Rio Linda and other individuals who haven’t clicked through on that link) that fully 20-40% of people who test positive will show no symptoms at all. And the Diamond Princess’ population would naturally tend to skew older which itself is a risk factor for covid-19, thus suggesting that the risk to the population at-large is even lower.

    What don’t we know yet? Unlike tests for most viral presence (such as HIV, shingles, et. al) there is no test for covid-19 antibodies. The only salient-but-unanswered questions at this point are, can you be exposed to covid-19 and develop immunity without being sick? If so, for how long would such an immunity last? The possibility that someone could have been an asymptomatic carrier at some point and immune is very germaine to public health.

    To be sure, there are problems with running large-scale testing. You’d have to round up all the people in an epidemiological hot spot and test them for antibodies, which we don’t have a test for yet, let alone the geopolitical implications of attempting testing somewhere we’re not welcome (like mainland China). But we don’t need to worry about that to know that asymptomatic cases exist, they exist in large numbers, and they most likely exist the world over. We’ve already run the experiment. It looks to me like the results of that experiment are deliberately being ignored by the politicians.

    Gryph (08c844)

  26. There’s evidence that the valuations from the last quarter were high and justified by expected growth and not strong fundamentals. A much lower valuation would be derived just from earnings.
    Additionally dealing with the virus will require funds that would have been used to fuel further growth. Add on to that a possible change in consumer sentiment over the medium term and it’s not unreasonable to expect a lower equilibrium.

    A more pessimistic outlook is also possible if you price in costs associated with
    -higher health care spending.
    -higher costs to ship and move goods.
    -higher supply chain costs as companies build in redundancy

    Time123 (dba73f)

  27. To be fair, an optimistic outlook is possible if you assume this will last a few weeks and result in a pent up consumer demand in the summer. I think this outlook is unlikely.

    Time123 (dba73f)

  28. The Dow is down 2,250 points as of this writing.

    Patterico (115b1f)

  29. 28. Feels like watching someone BASEjump when you know their parachute won’t open.

    Gryph (08c844)

  30. And more now. Not too hard to predict this sell-off given the futures, but that easy nothing about the long-term. This is NOTHING like late 2008, where the market was reacting to a wholesale financial system failure. Again, this is a “panic.”

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  31. *that easy says

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  32. 2,639 now. But Maria Bartiromo doesn’t sing until 4:30.

    nk (1d9030)

  33. Irrational stock moves:

    Amazon down 7%. Is there anyone who thinks that Amazon won’t benefit from people aboiding stores?

    Netflix down over 9%. Again, what are people going to do for entertainment? Movie theaters may never recover from Netflix eating their lunch.

    Similarly UBER, VZ, GOOG (not Google, Alphabet), FB and others that stand to benefit from less social interaction.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  34. When people realize this disease is not gone in two weeks, or four weeks, or eight weeks, or sixteen, the panic will continue, the economic pain will continue, and the fall of the market will continue.

    This is a more-than-a-yearlong concern.

    Patterico (115b1f)

  35. Amazon down 7%. Is there anyone who thinks that Amazon won’t benefit from people aboiding stores?

    Netflix down over 9%. Again, what are people going to do for entertainment? Movie theaters may never recover from Netflix eating their lunch.

    You’re missing the part where tons of people are suddenly without income for the foreseeable future, all in one sudden weekend. These businesses would do great if everyone had the same income to spend but were merely shifting it towards homebound entertainment.

    But that is not the case.

    Patterico (115b1f)

  36. This will take 5-10 years to recover from. If we can do it that fast.

    Patterico (115b1f)

  37. Irrational stock moves:
    Nope.

    Amazon down 7%. Is there anyone who thinks that Amazon won’t benefit from people aboiding stores?
    Relies mainly on disposable income (which people will hang on to for the time being) and stock over-priced to begin with.

    Netflix down over 9%. Again, what are people going to do for entertainment? Movie theaters may never recover from Netflix eating their lunch.
    Check out the Roku website and all the free, semi-free, and ad-supported channels. See also Hulu, Amazon Prime, YouTube, Starz, HBO, at al, which are now streamable as well as via cable.

    nk (1d9030)

  38. I predicted that Trump was toast not long after his Golden Escalator announcement, when he said, “some [Mexicans], I assume, are good people.”
    I stopped making predictions after he became the clear frontrunner.
    I heard somewhere that 2nd quarter GDP will drop by 5%, which is major. It’s still possible that there won’t technically be a recession if our response to the virus is successful, but I’m not putting money on it.
    Via Tyler Cowen, here is a good battle plan on what the US government should do. One of the items is a $10 billion prize for the first vaccine and first cure, and there are other financial incentives.

    Paul Montagu (d6528e)

  39. I don’t believe that this will last a year. If it actually does, then people will have long since decided to live with it. It will be one of those dangers, like car crashes, that people accept in order to get on with life.

    But it won’t. It apparently has not in China. Although I am dubious about the insignificant casualties they report, when everyone else is struggling, I do believe that the virus is no longer raging there. And that after wasting the first 2 months in denial and cover-up.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  40. Check out the Roku website and all the free, semi-free, and ad-supported channels.

    Sure, if you really like bad movies filled with commercials.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  41. I note that the ones who (*cough*) expect this to last a long time are the ones who want it to hurt Trump most.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  42. The operative phrase was “Check out”, Kevin. I have. Netflix is the channel I watch least.

    nk (1d9030)

  43. Netflix is becoming the Republican congressional bootstrap example of what to watch in a PBS-less world, content-wise…people figure that out real quick and go elsewhere.

    urbanleftbehind (326f0e)

  44. I note that the ones who (*cough*) expect this to last a long time are the ones who want it to hurt Trump most.

    Not me. I’m an “eat your cake and have it, too” person. I want both the Wuhan virus and the New York bacterium gone as soon as possible.

    nk (1d9030)

  45. We have what, for all intents and purposes, is a controlled experiment in covid-19 transmission: The Diamond Princess. Among 3711 people on board, 634 tested positive. This would seem to confirm my suspicion that all this “social distancing” bulls**t is just that — bulls**t.

    No.

    The cruise ships recirculate air. Before anyone was isolated people were mixing. Plus the population on a cruise ship skews old. You can’t draw conclusions about what happens in the world from what happened on one cruise ship.

    Patterico (115b1f)

  46. I note that the ones who (*cough*) expect this to last a long time are the ones who want it to hurt Trump most.

    I want this to last as short a time as possible.

    You should get that cough checked out.

    Patterico (115b1f)

  47. The operative phrase was “Check out”, Kevin. I have. Netflix is the channel I watch least.

    I watch Amazon Prime more. Hulu not at all. still, entertainment companies are generally recession-proof as a group. I wouldn’t risk a dime on theater, cable or satellite companies though, as they are old tech.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  48. “I note that the ones who (*cough*) expect this to last a long time are the ones who want it to hurt Trump most.”

    – Kevin M

    Which explains you supplying the equal and opposite reaction – I’m assuming you’re as big a believer in Newton’s Third Law as you are in the Second Law of Thermodynamics?

    Leviticus (efada1)

  49. 45. That’s absolutely right, you can’t. Did you follow the link? The study authors specifically cautioned against drawing larger conclusions on the basis of their numbers. If anything, the risk from covid-19 is less in the greater population than it would be on a cruise ship. That was the whole point of that study. And notwithstanding the difference in risk factors for transmission of covid-19, it is perfectly reasonable to think that the percentage of asymptomatic individuals, in any event, would be roughly the same in at-large populations. All you have to do is extrapolate the data.

    Gryph (08c844)

  50. 46. Trump doesn’t need a virus to hurt his political prospects. He’s perfectly capable of shooting himself in the foot and waiting for his acolytes to come minister to the wound.

    Gryph (08c844)

  51. Graph, not seeing the dramatic spikes (yet) in cases and continuing to not resort to social distancing in most Sun Belt states, this really could a death blow for the blue northeast and remnant rust belt if the disease becomes part of that territory, as Kevin M alludes to in #39, comparable perhaps to spores and desert fever in AZ and hantavirus and lyme for camping/RV life.

    urbanleftbehind (326f0e)

  52. How do you explain the expectation that this virus will pose a significant danger for a year (and necessitate an extended lock-down) with the Chinese apparently reducing it to manageable size in maybe a month of trying?

    Are the Chinese just lying and/or shooting all the infected people? We are having this lockdown now because we want it to end quickly and not overwhelm the system. There is no reason to expect it won’t work.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  53. 52. The “flatten the curve” trope says nothing about how deadly the virus itself is in the wild. I think it makes good sense to limit visitations in hospitals and nursing homes in order to limit exposure to individuals with degrees of pulmonary compromise. That doesn’t mean that shutting down schools and sporting events is just as important.

    Gryph (08c844)

  54. Irrational stock moves:

    Amazon down 7%. Is there anyone who thinks that Amazon won’t benefit from people aboiding stores?

    Netflix down over 9%. Again, what are people going to do for entertainment? Movie theaters may never recover from Netflix eating their lunch.

    Similarly UBER, VZ, GOOG (not Google, Alphabet), FB and others that stand to benefit from less social interaction.

    Stating this as a fact is wrong.

    -Stock price is driven by demand.
    -Demand is driven by ability to pay and expected return.

    If my previous bid was based on revenue from expected growth due to increased consumer spending for non-essential goods, american consumers using amazon to benefit from a leaner global supply chain, and increased demand due to more people wanting a share of amazon’s growth then I have a valid reason to expect the value to decrease.

    I’m not a stock analyst specializing in Amazon. You could be right, or the more pessimistic take could be right. I doubt either of us have the access to the data to make even a mildly educated guess. My best data is what the market is actually doing. But presenting a barstool analysis as ‘fact’ and using it to conclude what other people think is just wrong.

    Time123 (457a1d)

  55. 54. As pointed out upthread, in order to purchase from Amazon and subscribe to Netflix, people have to have money with which to do these things. A lot of the old assumptions in the miserable science of economics are about to go out the window if they haven’t already.

    Gryph (08c844)

  56. Which explains you supplying the equal and opposite reaction

    I want every single remaining candidate to drop dead of this, so we can start over. I am no fan of Trump’s, but it really a question of which sh1t sandwich I prefer: Sh1t or really-bad-sh1t.

    That being said, there is a seeming desire in some quarters for bad news to hit Trump so that their electoral preferences will be more likely. That the bad news hits everyone else is, I guess, a sacrifice they are willing to make.

    Every indication we have is that, if people take this thing seriously, it does not metastasize. In Italy, they kept on clubbing and living life as usual and it cost them. But it will STILL burn out sooner rather than later.

    People are also pointing out that CPAP machines are fair respirators, and the US has a lot of them.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  57. Stock price is driven by demand.

    Today it is driven by sentiment, fear and panic.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  58. 56. Italy has a much older population than the United States. The Corona Virus was the chickens coming home to roost after nearly a century of demographic decline.

    Gryph (08c844)

  59. AMZN is also up quite a bit now from its open.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  60. 58. Not nearly so much as to explain why the death rate per capita is an order of magnitude above China’s, and rising.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  61. 59. Probably, at least in part, because of day traders attempting to buy low/sell high.

    Gryph (08c844)

  62. Market: got out in Nov. As I’ve been saying for weeks: “2020 gonna be off the hook”!”, but that was because Trump vs Dems and Dems vs Dems and The Left vs USA.

    The only stock I still own is a small amount of CAMP that I’ve owned for over 20 years that I retained after making a killing w the other 95%.

    Watching the same people who just recently were cheering on a stock market crash now saying the bonus is that it will kill many Boomers and older is an amazing thing to see. They don’t value what it took to get you where you are and what you have, they just want what you have.

    You’re missing the part where tons of people are suddenly without income for the foreseeable future,

    Everybody is missing most everything but this is so true. The millions who live paycheck to paycheck and have assigned much of the care and feeding of their families to the govt. are going to really get angry at the people who did without, saved and at least have somewhat of a cushion in cash and living space.

    Well – just got back from the grocery store for the first time since before panic set in. There was no bread, chicken or ground beef but most other things in good supply. Saw a guy in line saying how his clan was doing everything to avoid the spread while holding three well-used cloth shopping bags.

    Everyone stay safe and same and clean!
    _

    harkin (b64479)

  63. 60. I’m not sure exactly where Italy’s numbers are, but someone who lived in Rome for over a decade told me that eventually, the United States will be where Italy is in terms of an aging population if we don’t blow ourselves up in political conflagration in the meantime. The only countries with an older average population than Italy are Japan and Vietnam.

    Gryph (08c844)

  64. 45. That’s absolutely right, you can’t. Did you follow the link?

    I did not.

    The study authors specifically cautioned against drawing larger conclusions on the basis of their numbers.

    OK. That seems sensible.

    If anything, the risk from covid-19 is less in the greater population than it would be on a cruise ship. That was the whole point of that study.

    That sounds like it’s drawing larger conclusions based on a study.

    I’m reading quickly and have to get ready for work, so pardon me if I’m missing your point. I like you and am not trying to be insulting with anything I say. If your point is that the population at large is less at risk than a small group skewing older, then sure. But to draw the conclusion that “social distancing is bullshit” based on what happened on a quarantined cruise ship strikes me as both wrong and as sending a dangerous message to people. Dr. Fauci and about every other infectious disease expert says social distancing is critical. If someone tries to tell me they’re wrong because of something that happened or didn’t happen on a cruise ship, I am going to strongly disagree and urge my readership to go with the experts and behave accordingly.

    Patterico (115b1f)

  65. 58. Not nearly so much as to explain why the death rate per capita is an order of magnitude above China’s, and rising.

    Kevin M (ab1c11) — 3/16/2020 @ 7:33 am

    1. Data from China is suspect.
    2. Italy is smaller and less spread out. If you’re going to do a per capita comparison those need to be controller for.

    Time123 (457a1d)

  66. Market: got out in Nov.

    I wanted to largely get out but worried about taxes. So I took out waaaay less than I wanted to.

    Patterico (115b1f)

  67. We have data about what has happened in the real world, from countries all over the world. That is more useful, I think, than the data from a cruise ship. We are not on a cruise ship. (And we are not likely to be again until there is a vaccine; and by then, what cruise lines will be left?)

    Patterico (115b1f)

  68. Our host has predicted 100’s of thousands of deaths in the US. All of which will be laid at Trump’s doorstep, of course. Maybe as high as 500,000 deaths if this is really “10 times as bad as the flu.”

    Suppose it doesn’t. Everyone [who hates Trump] says that Trump’s orders, shutting down in-bound travel and such, are terrible awful ideas. Then everyone else in the world copies it and takes it further. Even Canada. Dr Fauci, whom no one you or I know is more qualified to talk about this, says that Trump’s orders wrt China and the EU were absolutely necessary and will save many lives.

    The local shutdowns and meeting bans will also save many lives, and there is every reason to expect that they will shorten the pandemic.

    So, come May and this thing is behind us, Trump is going to look a LOT better than his critics.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  69. I wanted to largely get out but worried about taxes. So I took out waaaay less than I wanted to.

    I was about 10% in when this started. I bought some Verizon Friday, now about 15% in. I will buy more as it comes down, as I expect a strong recovery this year.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  70. 64. I like you too, Pat. But I figured that you were a little jaded when it came to “experts” telling you how to conduct your life. Funny how that’s all changed for so many people now. The conclusions that I drew after reading about that study are my own. And you are, of course free to disagree with me. I’m just not going to put my life on hold for an unknown.

    Gryph (08c844)

  71. I dunno about cruise lines. Short-term hurt, long-term recovery. Still, they have always been flu magnets, just like summer camps. People know that, I think.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  72. 67. Cruise ships skew older and recirculate some (not all, like an airplane) of their air. That doesn’t render the data utterly meaningless.

    Italy has the world’s third-oldest population on-average. Wuhan is covered in toxic smog I could go on and on about why “real-world” examples aren’t directly correlative with our experience here in the United States. But again, if anything, with the least pollution and the best health care in the world, I think that is plenty of reason to be more optimistic rather than less. Unless you’re comfortable with the idea of living like a hermit based on what’s happened to a bunch of 70-something Italians and Chinese communists.

    Gryph (08c844)

  73. 11. Glenn (a56320) — 3/15/2020 @ 11:30 pm

    This is the black swan of epic proportions,

    No, it’s not, because this virus doesn’t actually kill very many people. Imagine what we do if it did. (about 1.5 of those who recover from a very severe case have permanent lung damage)

    Sammy Finkelman (e4c3a1)

  74. 65. I don’t disagree with your first point (and have said so a few times), but China’s close crowding wouldn’t seem to be a good defense against disease vectors. That Italy was a secondary infection, at best, makes it doubly strange.

    To me, Italy looks like what would happen in the US if we did nothing to flatten the curve, and China is what would happen if we both did nothing, then lied about it.

    But my number 58 was suggesting that Italy’s problems are not really due to the size of the older cohort, but to something else in behavior. I also expect the UK to have a spike, given Boris’ crazy :herd immunity” “get it over with now” ideas.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  75. There will be jobs lost everywhere but some places will be hurt worse than others. Oil has now dipped under $30. This has happened before (and will happen again) but, when it does, millions of jobs are lost and thousands of businesses fail. The oil industry will take 2-5 years to recover, and oil states like Texas will still be dealing with this in November and beyond.

    DRJ (15874d)

  76. 74. Italy is NOT what would happen if we didn’t flatten the curve. Italy is what would happen to the United States at least 20 years from now, given the current rate of demographic decline in the United States. Italy is much older than the United States, ergo a much higher percentage of covid-19 cases in Italy are resulting in fatalities. You can not make a statement like that without knowing how many cases in the United States are asymptomatic — and we don’t have the tests available that we would need to make that determination.

    Gryph (08c844)

  77. “So, come May and this thing is behind us…”

    I would be willing to bet a case of wine against this but would be more than happy to pay up.

    “ I expect a strong recovery this year.”

    I just don’t see how anyone who has watched the world in the past two weeks can predict anything for April, much less later in the year. “He is toast in November. Toast” to me sounds much more wishful thinking than anything to do with common sense. The realm of possibilities to what happens between now and Election Day is truly off the hook.
    _

    harkin (b64479)

  78. A lot hinges on whether CV is seasonal. If so, a path to recovery could start as soon as May.

    Munroe (dd6b64)

  79. 78. There is reason to believe that it might be, or might not be. If it is, we could end up dealing with it just like we do with the seasonal flu. I don’t find that particularly encouraging.

    Gryph (08c844)

  80. The stovk market, as predicted dropped at the opening bell. It dropped 2700 points and trading was stopped. Trading automatically stops when the S&P index drops 7%. It has since resumed. I heard it was down 9%

    At the sat of World War I, the stock market dropped because many shares were owned by British investors who were ordered by their government to sell. The stock market closed for some six months, gradually resuming after private trading.

    By 1929, they no longer had the memory or the brains to do that.

    In the United States, by the way, the outbreak of he European War (its name as late as 1976 (!) in the Reader’s Guide to Periodical Literature, and into the 1950s in the Encyclopedia Americana) now known as World War I, cut short a depression which had started in 1913. Coxey had marched on Washington in 1894 after the what is called the Panic of 1893 and can be called a depression – that lasted util 1897 – marched again in 1914.

    Oh, look: He was there again in 1944, but in commemoration:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coxey%27s_Army

    Although Coxey’s proposal for government jobs was radical for its time, it came to be part of U.S. federal policy with the passing of the New Deal. On May 1, 1944, Coxey was asked to read his original petition from the steps of the Capitol..

    Nobody believes in temporary government jobs nowadays, except fpr what would happen anyway with he Census. Not sure how that’s going to go now.

    Sammy Finkelman (e4c3a1)

  81. 76. Gryph (08c844) — 3/16/2020 @ 7:53 am

    not make a statement like that without knowing how many cases in the United States are asymptomatic — and we don’t have the tests available that we would need to make that determination.

    I think you make some indirect calculations, but a random sample is not going to work because I think no more than about 1 in 3,000 people in the United States is infected. That’s probably a little bit out of date.

    Sammy Finkelman (e4c3a1)

  82. If it’s seasonal, this buys us a lot of time to develop a vaccine or better treatments. If it ends up like the flu, it becomes an affliction with a known human cost. The downturn has much to do with unknowns and pessimism.

    Munroe (dd6b64)

  83. 81. You don’t need a random sample to know that 20-30% of covid-19 cases remain asymptomatic. That is one conclusion that is absolutely safe to draw from the Diamond Princess study. The reason we can’t know how many cases in the United States are asymptomatic is that we can’t test for antibodies.

    Gryph (08c844)

  84. The best case scenario for healthcare is the virus burns itself out soon but businesses won’t recover quickly, even if this ends quickly. The oil industry won’t recover in less than 2 years, and probably more, after this ends. It isn’t as easy as turning on a tap.

    DRJ (15874d)

  85. 84. That tends to be my take on things as well. The economic damage will be much longer-lasting and serious than the medical damage.

    Gryph (08c844)

  86. And no one is “toast”.

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  87. 82. When it comes to unknowns and pessimism, Dr. Fauci isn’t doing America any favors.

    Gryph (08c844)

  88. For the cool, calm and collected, this is an accurate tracking of the situation and updated regularly:

    Tracking Every Coronavirus Case in the U.S.: Full Map

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html

    As of this writing, since the first case was identified in the U.S. on January 21, nearly two months ago in Washington State, 66 patients w/t virus have died.

    As of this writing, in the past 24 hours, the number of gunshot deaths in America: 30.

    https://www.gunviolence.org/reports/number-of-gun-deaths

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  89. When it comes to unknowns and pessimism, Dr. Fauci isn’t doing America any favors.

    There’s a lot of the ‘Dr. Leonard McCoy’ in him.

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  90. 89. He’s dead, Jim.

    Gryph (08c844)

  91. Our host has predicted 100’s of thousands of deaths in the US. All of which will be laid at Trump’s doorstep, of course.

    I have not said those deaths should be laid at Trump’s doorstep. Let’s be clear about that. The electorate may end up blaming him. I think his lies and inaction will cause deaths but certainly not the lion’s share.

    Patterico (755a7d)

  92. @80. The Market was overdue for a correction. This was just the catalyst.

    Last year the deeply fevered anti-Trump crowd was chirping ‘recession’ throughout the media trying to stoke doom and gloom. They’ll use this for that again. Too bad for them it’s only the Ides of March– and not an October Surprise, closer to election day.

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  93. If it’s seasonal, this buys us a lot of time to develop a vaccine or better treatments. If it ends up like the flu, it becomes an affliction with a known human cost. The downturn has much to do with unknowns and pessimism.

    Munroe (dd6b64) — 3/16/2020 @ 8:05 am

    Weirdly I agree with Munroe. But based on the geographic spread in the US today, i’m not optimistic about seasonality. It’s in Minisota and NOLA at the same time…

    Time123 (457a1d)

  94. Unfortunately, hysterical blog wishcasting doesn’t translate into political reality. The overhyping of this virus is going to backfire badly in a few weeks when people realize that COVID-19 has no clothes. I haven’t heard one coherent reason why Trump would be blamed for the disease or its (temporary) economic effect. And especially no reason why the country would be Biden would be anything but a disastrous alternative.

    Jenny from Iowa (1d7864)

  95. A lot hinges on whether CV is seasonal. If so, a path to recovery could start as soon as May.

    If reported cases continue to rise exponentially at the current rate, we could have 96 million cases before May 1. Exponential growth is a bitch.

    I don’t think it will be that bad, but it could.

    Patterico (755a7d)

  96. 45. Patterico (115b1f) — 3/16/2020 @ 7:17 am

    The cruise ships recirculate air.

    And so do airplanes.

    When I read that a Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) study or report said that fresh air did not contain any germs at high altitudes, I said to myself that’s a dishonest study, because what’s the point? And the other point, that aircraft HEPA filters effectively remove bacteria and viruses, as well as dust and fungi also, can easily be seen as misleading.

    I would say the circulation system will circulate infectious material further away from the infected person that in a place with no “breeze.”

    They’re making two errors. And they cannot make just one but must make both at the same time for what they say to make sense.

    First, they say, (because it’s convenient) that you only have to worry about being within 6 feet of the infected person because the droplets settle. Then they say, oh, it can survive to some degree for some time on surfaces and people must be touching it with their hands and getting it into their bodies. I don’t think there’s any proof of that – it’s just pure speculation. No matter how many times or over how many years it’s been said. (the speculation is caused by ruling out he particles drifting more than 6 feet. But in a famous SARS case, 45% of the passengers who got it were sitting further away.)

    And then somebody studied people on airplanes and proved that because they got up from their seats, people would walk within 6 feet of each other. But for how long? It didn’t even connect transmission of SARS cases to where somebody was sitting on an plane.

    Sammy Finkelman (e4c3a1)

  97. 94. There doesn’t need to be a coherent reason for Trump to receive the blame. Of all the reasons he should not be re-elected, his handling of covid-19 strikes me as relatively weak tea.

    Gryph (08c844)

  98. Our host has predicted 100’s of thousands of deaths in the US. All of which will be laid at Trump’s doorstep, of course.

    I have not said those deaths should be laid at Trump’s doorstep. Let’s be clear about that. The electorate may end up blaming him. I think his lies and inaction will cause deaths but certainly not the lion’s share.

    Patterico (755a7d) — 3/16/2020 @ 8:32 am

    This annoys me.

    Trump didn’t cause this and it’s not fair to blame him that it happened.
    Trump is responsible for managing the response. It’s 100% fair to hold him accountable for the job the government does on the response. If (like me) you think the leadership from the federal government has been poor I think it’s fair to lay that at his feet.

    There are things he’s done well, and far more that he’s done poorly wrt to this.

    Time123 (457a1d)

  99. 95. Put it into perspective, Pat. 20-30% of those cases asymptomatic? And of the symptomatic cases, the fatality rate given America’s relatively young demographic? There’s more cause for optimism than the “experts” seem to want us to believe.

    Gryph (08c844)

  100. Trump’s lies and inaction certainly WERE responsible for the 150 million deaths the virus caused (and Kevin Nunes covered up) while the disease was spreading between December 18 and February 5. Responsible adults like Adam Schiff realized the danger and were screaming for a recess in the impeachment proceedings to address the existential threat to all human life.

    Jenny from Iowa (1d7864)

  101. The biggest danger is a Chinese counter-attack.

    Make America Ordered Again (23f793)

  102. And there have been a minimum of 1000 deaths per day from car crashes, DCSCA.

    DRJ (15874d)

  103. 100. I think the Chinese government bears more blame for that than Trump does. There is reason to believe that the communist overlords may have known about the virus’ presence in Wuhan as early as mid-October.

    Gryph (08c844)

  104. Jenny, I’ll bet you’re all set to show the virus you won’t be intimidated by gathering with a large group of friends to drink a corona.

    Time123 (441f53)

  105. 100. Wait a minute. I missed that. Adam Schiff, responsible? ROFLMMFAOLOLOLOL

    Gryph (08c844)

  106. Dave (1bb933) — 3/16/2020 @ 4:15 am

    Retail sales in China plunged 20.5% in the January-to-February period from a year earlier,

    Assuming Janauary was normal, that’s really a 40% drop. And that’s without doing anything to the numbers.

    What precise period of time does that cover anyway? January 1- February 29, or some other period of time?

    Sammy Finkelman (e4c3a1)

  107. happened.
    Trump is responsible for managing the response. It’s 100% fair to hold him accountable for the job the government does on the response. If (like me) you think the leadership from the federal government has been poor I think it’s fair to lay that at his feet.

    Yup. Starting with the lies about containment and failure to heed warnings about the need for testing and social distancing early enough. You bet he deserves some blame and I predict he will get even more blame from the voters then he deserves.

    Patterico (755a7d)

  108. 106. When I worked in retail, the fiscal year ended at the end of January. I think they’re talking about January 1-31.

    Gryph (08c844)

  109. You guys realize that the talking point that we have had few deaths is set to expire in a week or two, right?

    Patterico (755a7d)

  110. Testing cures COVID-19? Science!

    Jenny from Iowa (1d7864)

  111. 107. I haven’t been socially distancing myself in any appreciable way since this all broke out. In fact, just this past weekend I was down at the video arcade where there were about six other people besides myself, counting the attendant. Does this lessen your opinion of me?

    Gryph (08c844)

  112. 109. It’s perfectly reasonable to believe that as the number of cases increases, so too will the number of deaths. I can only hope that if this never materializes as the disaster you fear, you will be willing to admit that you were wrong, just as I will if people all around me start dropping dead unexpectedly.

    Gryph (08c844)

  113. @102. Buckle up for safety; Buckle up!

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  114. You guys realize that the talking point that we have had few deaths is set to expire in a week or two, right?

    You realize that the talking point that there is any risk left of contracting COVID-19 in the U.S. is set to expire in a few weeks?

    Jenny from Iowa (1d7864)

  115. It will be so interesting to review this thread on two weeks. Of course by then we will have far bigger worries than how some were far too blasé two weeks ago in a blog comment section.

    Patterico (755a7d)

  116. 115. …or not. Plus ca change, plus cest la memes.

    Gryph (08c844)

  117. 102. Nope. Off by a factor is 10. But your point is still valid, and that loopy old darling needs to hie to GB or France where his heart lies.

    Ragspierre (d9bec9)

  118. You are right, it’s 100 a day not a 1000. Very sorry. I should proofread before hitting Submit.

    DRJ (15874d)

  119. @115, at that point they’ll have moved on to trying to sell essential oils as a cure and preventative.

    Time123 (457a1d)

  120. It will be so interesting to review this thread on two weeks. Of course by then we will have far bigger worries than how some were far too blasé two weeks ago in a blog comment section.

    True. With Easter only days away, I’ll be fretting about how getting all the eggs dyed.

    Jenny from Iowa (1d7864)

  121. You realize that the talking point that there is any risk left of contracting COVID-19 in the U.S. is set to expire in a few weeks?

    All a media hoax based on FAKE NEWS! Right, Jenny?

    Dr. Fauci, send a nurse to Iowa…stat…

    Ragspierre (d9bec9)

  122. “I mean it’s unpredictable but if you look at historically, how these things work, it’ll likely be anywhere from a few weeks up to eight weeks or more,” he said, adding that he hopes it’s going to be only two, three or four weeks.

    That’s from some idiot named Dr. Anthony Fauci. But he doesn’t believe in ¡SCIENCE! like this blog.

    Jenny from Iowa (1d7864)

  123. @121, I hope Jenny doesn’t get sick. But Trump encouraging ppl like her not to take reasonable precautions is on him. Turning this into another stupid culture war thing is on him.

    Time123 (441f53)

  124. “It will be so interesting to review this thread on two weeks. Of course by then we will have far bigger worries than how some were far too blasé two weeks ago in a blog comment section.”
    Patterico (755a7d) — 3/16/2020 @ 8:47 am

    Why wait two weeks?

    That we can now discuss a viral contagion that could mutate and kill millions is proof that impeachment is over.
    Munroe (dd6b64) — 2/1/2020 @ 10:50 am

    Roger Stone was the burning issue here until late February.

    Munroe (dd6b64)

  125. Oil has now dipped under $30.

    I remember one Saturday afternoon my old man being on the phone dickering w/a dude at Texaco to buy it for $4 a barrel. The oil biz has deep pockets; they won’t hurt.

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  126. @125, you had a good point up thread, but now you’re back to making fart noises with your mouth. Sad.

    Time123 (457a1d)

  127. Roger Stone was the burning issue here until late February.

    Wasn’t there an impeach thingy in January, too? My, how time flies and we move on from things PDQ these days. 😉

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  128. A shout out to millennials:

    Your parents and grandparents were called to war. You are being called to sit on your couch.
    You can do this.

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  129. The stock market was way oversold to begin with and long overdue for a correction.

    Gawain's Ghost (b25cd1)

  130. Exxon will survive. Lots of service companies and independent oil operators won’t, and they employ people, too.

    DRJ (15874d)

  131. 127… I thought gratuitous insults and personal attacks were off limits?

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  132. 82. Munroe (dd6b64) — 3/16/2020 @ 8:05 am

    If it’s seasonal, this buys us a lot of time to develop a vaccine or better treatments.

    There is a better treatment, but everyone is too terrified of the Food and Drug administration to really talk about it.

    Here’s a case where someone wants to use it, and it comes up on;y n extremis: A retired New York City fire marshal, age 84, living on Long Island, who passed out and was rushed to the hospital on Wednesday, February, 26 (everyone thought he had flu) and was diagnosed with what should be called maybe SARS2 (COVID-19) and was diagnosed as having COVID-19 on Friday, March 13. They had given him antibiotics – that hadn’t helped.

    The story was on the front page of the New York Daily News of Sunday, March 15, 2020. I want to emphasize one little thing here:

    Zach Knox and his three sisters are now making a hardship plea for doctors to use the experimental drug Remdesivir on their father. The World Health Organization has high hopes for the antiviral medication that was developed to fight the Ebola virus and was used in clinical trials for coronavirus sufferers in China… [Because it is not approved for anything, the pharmaceutical company is pushing it. This requires IV administration. It’s probably not nearly as good as the oral antivirals]

    By Saturday afternoon, family members were told that, because Knox was suffering from renal failure, he couldn’t be put on Remdesivir. Doctors plan to put him on an anti-HIV drug similar to Remdesivir that won’t affect the kidneys.

    The only reason I can think of for not choosing that other drug in the first place must be cost. Any drugs used in clinical trials are free.

    And a company won’t readily donate a drug for humanitarian reasons if it is off label, because that might be considered endorsing it. Everyone, I think, is afraid of getting into trouble with the FDA.

    If not over this use, they’ll take it out on them on something else for which they need approval.

    Doctors won’t discuss this in public, except in the context of medical studies. It gets mentioned in case histories which can mostly only be told by families.

    How, in that case, can you hope for politicians to push an emergency increase in production, combined with a negotiated lower rice? Or even sing eminent domain on the patent?

    Sammy Finkelman (e4c3a1)

  133. Turning this into another stupid culture war thing is on him.

    Lol, Trump shut down travel from China in the middle of his impeachment. Of course, this blog was calling for that MONTHS in advance. He declared a national emergency on Friday. We’re going to have a repeat of the ObamaSwineFlu where he waited months longer and it infected 55 million people. I don’t remember him tweeting about social distancing or the whole country shutting down schools, restaurants and everything else.

    Jenny from Iowa (1d7864)

  134. Munroe, sorry for the comment about fart noises. That was rude, uncalled for, and not consistent with the comment policy of the blog.

    Time123 (353edd)

  135. It’s okay, Time123. Thank you.

    Munroe (dd6b64)

  136. The oil biz has deep pockets; they won’t hurt.

    I used to fill up my motorcycle, give the man $.25 and get change. There’s this economic thingy called inflation.

    The “oil biz” on the production and development end does NOT have “deep pockets”. Pretty much the opposite. Been there: done that.

    Ragspierre (d9bec9)

  137. Munroe, thank you. Your comment about seasonality of this I think is correct. What has me worried is that they’re reporting cases in the US with very different conditions. New Orleans and Idaho aren’t at all similar at the moment.

    Time123 (353edd)

  138. Plus it is spreading to South America and starting in Africa, where it is Summer — hot and wet.

    DRJ (15874d)

  139. Fart noises?

    Once upon a time people coughed to cover up a fart. Now they fart to cover up a cough.

    Make America Ordered Again (23f793)

  140. Lol, Trump shut down travel from China in the middle of his impeachment.

    As Azar explained when he announced the travel restrictions on Jan. 31, the policy prohibits non-U.S. citizens, other than the immediate family of U.S. citizens and permanent residents, who have traveled to China within the last two weeks from entering the U.S.

    Of course, this blog was calling for that MONTHS in advance. He declared a national emergency on Friday. We’re going to have a repeat of the ObamaSwineFlu where he waited months longer and it infected 55 million people. I don’t remember him tweeting about social distancing or the whole country shutting down schools, restaurants and everything else.

    You’ve been corrected numerous times with your willfully lying about what H1N1 Swine Flu was, less communicable and 20X lower mortality rate. It was no more fatal than influenza A-B, just more communicable. Again, Covid-19 is nearly twice as infectious, and 20X more deadly.

    Colonel Klink (Ret) (305827)

  141. Trump was right to restrict travel between the US and China, but after that his actions have not been helpful:

    WASHINGTON (AP) — In the course of a few weeks, President Donald Trump veered from confidently assuring Americans his administration had the coronavirus outbreak “very well under control” to declaring a national emergency and tweeting all-caps caution about the pandemic that has upended every facet of American life.

    Trump meandered from denial to grudging acceptance, and he seeded conflicting, inaccurate and eyebrow-raising commentary on a country desperate for unvarnished, even shock-to-the-system, guidance.

    Throughout the global coronavirus crisis, Trump’s statements have been colored by baseless optimism. Sometimes, his commentary has been flatly wrong. Frequently, it’s been amplified by aides and allies with the help of conservative media.

    DRJ (15874d)

  142. As Azar explained when he announced the travel restrictions on Jan. 31, the policy prohibits non-U.S. citizens, other than the immediate family of U.S. citizens and permanent residents, who have traveled to China within the last two weeks from entering the U.S

    This means US Citizens, family of citizens, and permanent residence could fly back and forth until airlines stopped flights. In fact, you can fly directly back from Beijing today, tomorrow, last week, last month.

    Colonel Klink (Ret) (305827)

  143. I would not count Trump out. A lot of his weaknesses are baked-in. People don’t expect much from him. Crazy tweeting, hoarse shouting, golfing a lot, possibly hitting on his own daughter, or yours. I mean. The bar is very very low. He could be re-elected in a landslide even in a sh*tty economy, depending on who the Dems nominate and how that nominee performs.

    JRH (52aed3)

  144. Time123 and DRJ, not putting myself out as an expert on this, but you can catch the flu year round in places like Vietnam. The question is at what rate and how much of it is community spread.

    And, just because a place is in the Southern Hemisphere doesn’t mean it’s warm in March. Some of the most populous cities are at high elevations. And, their cases of CV might be due to travelers coming in as opposed to community spread.

    We just don’t know for sure.

    Munroe (dd6b64)

  145. https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.10.2000180

    Of the 634 confirmed cases, a total of 306 and 328 were reported to be symptomatic and asymptomatic, respectively. The proportion of asymptomatic individuals appears to be 16.1% (35/218) before 13 February, 25.6% (73/285) on 15 February, 31.2% (111/355) on 16 February, 39.9% (181/454) on 17 February, 45.4% (246/542) on 18 February, 50.6% (314/621) on 19 February and 50.5% (320/634) on 20 February (Table)

    The proportion of cases that were asymptomatic rose with time. The totals are cumulative.

    Now is that because they kept taking the most seriously ill people (who were probably therefore also the biggest spreaders) off the ship? Or was the virus weakening? Or is this the result of increased testing, and therefore increased identification of asymptomatic cases? THe table makes it look that way

    https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/table/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.10.2000180.t1?fmt=ahah&fullscreen=true

    Sammy Finkelman (e4c3a1)

  146. I agree, Munroe, but I have seen comments and articles say the Coronavirus may burn out in hotter, wetter weather. I hope it does but it seems more like wishful thinking for now. My guess is it is more likely to burn out because it moves so fast and so easily, not because of weather. But moving fast and easily puts a lot of people at risk.

    DRJ (15874d)

  147. (CNN)President Donald Trump has long been someone who sees the world not as it is, but as he would like it to be. That alternate universe he occupies has never been more stark — or more dangerous — than in Trump’s response to the coronavirus pandemic.

    Over and over again, in public appearances aimed at informing and calming the public, Trump’s tone and message regarding the virus has been wildly at odds with facts as explained by medical experts around the country.

    His “performance” at a Sunday afternoon press briefing of the White House Coronavirus Task Force was the latest example of how Trump appears to be floating in his own world of happy talk and confidence.

    And poor Fauci has to SuperGlu his eyes in place to prevent them rolling as he stands behind the Orange Racoon.

    Cognitive dissonance is a terrible poison to unleash into a society or economy.

    Ragspierre (d9bec9)

  148. Even the conservative media is starting to listen to Dr Fauci instead of President Trump:

    Fauci told Wallace that he did not think a national lockdown, similar to Italy’s, would be necessary for the United States, and also discussed three reasons why coronavirus is different from other ailments like the flu.

    “One, it’s brand new so we don’t have any prior experience about what it’s gonna do, what it’s dynamic’s gonna be,” he said. “Number 2, it spreads very easily, there’s no doubt about that. It isn’t like some of the other outbreaks that we had that just didn’t adapt itself to spread among humans. And Number 3, it’s very serious in the sense of morbidity and mortality, particularly among – and very heavily weighted — towards individuals who are more susceptible – the elderly and those with underlying conditions.”

    When asked if its contagiousness and lethality are worse than the flu, Fauci emphatically said, “Well yes, I mean it just is, and we’ve gotta face that fact.”

    Fauci also repeated his prediction that things “will get worse before they get better.” He remained optimistic that the impact can be mitigated, but only if people take precautions.

    “To think that right now everything is going to be okay if we don’t do anything, that’s absolutely incorrect,” he said.

    DRJ (15874d)

  149. Soap kills this virus:

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/health/soap-coronavirus-handwashing-germs.html

    Some bacteria and viruses have lipid membranes that resemble double-layered micelles with two bands of hydrophobic tails sandwiched between two rings of hydrophilic heads. These membranes are studded with important proteins that allow viruses to infect cells and perform vital tasks that keep bacteria alive. Pathogens wrapped in lipid membranes include coronaviruses, H.I.V., the viruses that cause hepatitis B and C, herpes, Ebola, Zika, dengue, and numerous bacteria that attack the intestines and respiratory tract.

    but not most common cold viruses:

    There are also viruses that do not depend on lipid membranes to infect cells, as well as bacteria that protect their delicate membranes with sturdy shields of protein and sugar. Examples include bacteria that can cause meningitis, pneumonia, diarrhea and skin infections, as well as the hepatitis A virus, poliovirus, rhinoviruses and adenoviruses (frequent causes of the common cold).

    Sammy Finkelman (e4c3a1)

  150. At my last link, Dr Fauci also tried to undo the damage done by how Trump announced his Europe travel ban. I know citizens who booked emergency flights home because they thought they might be banned based on what Trump said.

    DRJ (15874d)

  151. The proportion of cases that were asymptomatic rose with time. The totals are cumulative.

    Now is that because they kept taking the most seriously ill people (who were probably therefore also the biggest spreaders) off the ship? Or was the virus weakening? Or is this the result of increased testing, and therefore increased identification of asymptomatic cases? THe table makes it look that way

    The problem isn’t that the asymptomatic are going to die, it’s that they don’t know they’re typhoid Mary, and passing it on to those who will consume medical care, which diverts resources from other things, like heart attacks, and some of those infected will die, and some of those who can’t get treatment for other things die. With a million hospital beds in the US, of which 650k are full every day on average, the excess capacity is only 350k. There are only 45k ICU beds in the US, with 25k being occupied. Health systems are designed to run with as little excess capacity as possible, excess capacity costs money and it won’t be used for decades on end.

    Plus, we don’t have enough human people to scale the delivery of care much beyond what our capacity is, for exactly the same reasons that their aren’t excess beds, and beds don’t require food, and pay, and education… You can have a bed built with little lead time, you can build a triage hospital with sufficient planning. You only get a new doctor after 8 years of input.

    Those are the reasons why the message should have been pushed by the administration to bend the curve, at least a month ago. A month late in a situation like this will cost lives. Will it be only a few hundred, I hope that’s the case.

    Colonel Klink (Ret) (305827)

  152. It will be so interesting to review this thread on two weeks. Of course by then we will have far bigger worries than how some were far too blasé two weeks ago in a blog comment section.

    Patterico (755a7d) — 3/16/2020 @ 8:47 am

    Only time will tell. If it turns out to be the same number of deaths as H1N1, is that a win or a loss and how will it be framed?

    You’ve been corrected numerous times with your willfully lying about what H1N1 Swine Flu was, less communicable and 20X lower mortality rate. It was no more fatal than influenza A-B, just more communicable. Again, Covid-19 is nearly twice as infectious, and 20X more deadly.

    Colonel Klink (Ret) (305827) — 3/16/2020 @ 9:52 am

    This is nonsense. H1N1 was highly communicable and with the number of people recently tested who are showing up asymptomatic for the Wuhan virus, it’s unknown what the death rate is of this virus. People were generally only getting tested for showing symptoms. That ignores the large number of asymptomatic carriers as shown on the Princess cruise.

    NJRob (4d595c)

  153. The proportion of cases that were asymptomatic rose with time. The totals are cumulative.

    Now is that because they kept taking the most seriously ill people (who were probably therefore also the biggest spreaders) off the ship? Or was the virus weakening? Or is this the result of increased testing, and therefore increased identification of asymptomatic cases? THe table makes it look that way

    https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/table/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.10.2000180.t1?fmt=ahah&fullscreen=true

    Sammy Finkelman (e4c3a1) — 3/16/2020 @ 10:01 am

    Aren’t there potentially 2-4 different versions of this same virus? One of which is much more lethal than the others?

    NJRob (4d595c)

  154. I appreciate Colonel Klink’s fear, but NJRob is right. We don’t know enouugh to say the current fatality rate because of inadequate testing.

    Make America Ordered Again (23f793)

  155. @145, Munroe, good point about the Flu. I really hope you’re right, because that means my inlaws are less likely to get it.

    Time123 (cd2ff4)

  156. I really hope you’re right, because that means my inlaws are less likely to get it.

    You are weird!

    Make America Ordered Again (23f793)

  157. I’ve said it before and I’m saying it again: Putin is behind the whole thing. https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/cyberattack-hhs-meant-slow-coronavirus-response-sources/story?id=69619094

    nk (1d9030)

  158. DRJ, good link and good point. The President, (any president) has a lot of power to lead by setting expectations and calling people to a course of action, even where they can’t legally mandate a certain behavior. The current president hasn’t done that and it’s clear he’s not aligned with his internal experts. This leads to a lot of the churn and confusion we’re seeing. These contribute to some of the poor execution that’s been happening.

    Time123 (cd2ff4)

  159. It doesn’t make sense that the virus will burn out during hot weather. The temps in the Phillipines has been in the 90’s, and they continue to have outbreaks, with 29 new cases yesterday and 11 deaths so far.

    Dana (4fb37f)

  160. It will be so interesting to review this thread on two weeks. Of course by then we will have far bigger worries than how some were far too blasé two weeks ago in a blog comment section.

    Hopefully, in two weeks time, we will all simply be thankful that the virus has passed. While I don’t believe that will be the case, I won’t be gloating one way or the other. This is far too serious to be about pointing fingers or mocking the cautious or the cavalier.

    Right here and right now, experts are telling us to isolate as much as possible. I’m following the expert’s advice. Why wouldn’t I? And why wouldn’t anyone else?

    Dana (4fb37f)

  161. I don’t know about the Philippines, but hot Malaysia also has more cases:

    Malaysia reported 190 new coronavirus cases on Sunday, with most linked to a religious event at a mosque that was attended by 16,000 people from several countries.

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-malaysia-idUSKBN2120BE

    I don’t think this necessarily points to a lack of seasonal impact. It could be we just need to wait and see how it works out in the U.S.

    Munroe (dd6b64)

  162. I appreciate Colonel Klink’s fear, but NJRob is right. We don’t know enouugh to say the current fatality rate because of inadequate testing.

    So maybe doing a better job of rolling out testing would have been better. We’ve now caught up cumulatively to the testing that South Korea is doing in a day.

    This is a great comparison between us and South Korea. They have very heavily tested the population so they’re stats are what we should be hoping for. With the tremendous focus on testing, tracking, and quarantining those at risk, they’re insuring that even with a much higher transmission occurrence, you can lower the real-time spread. We are trying to back into the social quarantining because we still have almost no testing capacity. I’m actually OK with that, assume you’re infected, don’t kill your grandma. Once we have testing, in place, we’ll be able to over test, but that’s a more psychological salve, but it’s an investment that we should make, jump start recovery.

    The US federal response has been laughably late, and Trump’s personally messaging, TODAY, is still wrong, childish, misinformed, stupid. Pence may not be smart, but he’s not a drooling idiot, so after a month of delay, fine, can we let him just own this, and someone take Trump’s tweeter phone away from him for God’s sake?

    Colonel Klink (Ret) (305827)

  163. Those of you who want Trump to lose and have Biden win, will deserve everything you get. And you will not like it one bit.

    LYNN HARGROVE (740caa)

  164. Those of you who want Trump to lose and have Biden win, will deserve everything you get. And you will not like it one bit.

    Please, what will we get, and why won’t we like it? Please, be specific.

    Colonel Klink (Ret) (305827)

  165. Trump Administration: too incompetent to effectuate widespread testing.

    Trumpkins: Look how few confirmed cases there are!

    Leviticus (efada1)

  166. Good news on coronavirus:

    With the aquarium closed to humans, penguins take opportunity to explore and visit other animals
    By Alicia Lee, CNN

    Updated 9:15 PM ET, Sun March 15, 2020

    Make America Ordered Again (23f793)

  167. Love all the commenters here who were way ahead of the curve on this, well ahead of Trump. Same people who were Roger Stone obsessed 24/7 a month ago.

    Munroe (dd6b64)

  168. Only time will tell. If it turns out to be the same number of deaths as H1N1, is that a win or a loss and how will it be framed?

    It’s the paradox of preparedness.

    If we prepare for this and it’s mild it could mean either that the steps worked, or that they steps were unnecessary.

    Coming to the correct conclusion will require more detailed analysis, which means it’s open for debate. In our politically changed times partisans will use that opening to push whatever narrative best supports them.

    Time123 (353edd)

  169. Love all the commenters here who were way ahead of the curve on this, well ahead of Trump. Same people who were Roger Stone obsessed 24/7 a month ago.

    Munroe (dd6b64) — 3/16/2020 @ 10:57 am

    1. You didn’t have to be months ahead of this to be ahead of Trump.
    2. This is part of his job, and he has a huge staff to get it done well. This is my hobby.
    3. Both this and Roger Stone can be news.
    4. His team still doesn’t seem to be taking this as seriously as they need to. But they are doing better.
    5. Even if you’re 100% correct, how about you just don’t vote for me or him for president?

    Time123 (353edd)

  170. Love all the commenters here who were way ahead of the curve on this, well ahead of Trump. Same people who were Roger Stone obsessed 24/7 a month ago.

    You and your good buddy MAOA were two of the WORST. But never mind that the blog is about legal stuff quite often, the Stone trial was in the news, and blogs TEND to go where their owners direct them.

    Also, none of us are POTUS.

    Ragspierre (d9bec9)

  171. Time123 (441f53) — 3/16/2020 @ 9:02 am

    But Trump encouraging ppl like her not to take reasonable precautions is on him. Turning this into another stupid culture war thing is on him.

    No. It’s on both sides playing this stupid game. I suspect most of the ppl preaching that no matter what Trump does he’s made it worse don’t really think covid is a big deal either. It’s just the most current issue they want to use.

    It’s telling that the people criticizing Trump on this aren’t actually championing anything Biden has said on the issue. If you’re a D, or just want to dump Trump no matter what, you might want to spend some time thinking about who will actually be running in the fall. Biden was already on a rapid health decline and he might not survive a round of covid.

    frosty (f27e97)

  172. Patterico (755a7d) — 3/16/2020 @ 8:47 am

    It will be so interesting to review this thread on two weeks. Of course by then we will have far bigger worries than how some were far too blasé two weeks ago in a blog comment section.

    I was thinking that two weeks ago. At least we’re not still hearing much about how the common flu is worse.

    frosty (f27e97)

  173. I saw a headline to the effect that the stock market has erased the entirety of gains since Donald Trump took office in January, 2017.

    This could be reworded thank goodness Donald Trump helped create some industrial and financial reserve in the economy.

    Make America Ordered Again (23f793)

  174. I suspect most of the ppl preaching that no matter what Trump does he’s made it worse don’t really think covid is a big deal either. It’s just the most current issue they want to use.

    You’d suspect wrong. And this isn’t about “no matter what Trump does he’s made it worse”. If you can’t see cause >>> effect here, several of us could help you out. There might be someone here who thinks this is no big deal, but I’m damn sure not one.

    Ragspierre (d9bec9)

  175. ” Same people who were Roger Stone obsessed 24/7 a month ago.”

    Ok, what important Roger Stone developments have we missed?

    Davethulhu (822ecd)

  176. This could be reworded thank goodness Donald Trump helped create some industrial and financial reserve in the economy.

    Except that would be a lie told by an economic ignoramus. So it’s good nobody did that.

    Ragspierre (d9bec9)

  177. @168 It’s possible that more than one bad thing can happen at once. If they are redoing the freeway on your commute and your bike gets stolen off your porch, in the moment you may be more angry about your stolen bike, but that doesn’t mean you aren’t still angry about your commute.

    Nic (896fdf)

  178. Stephen L. Miller
    @redsteeze
    ·
    The Washington Post, the NY Times and NBC News in the last 5 days have all pushed PRC talking points almost verbatim. This is **actual** enemy of the people s**t…..

    ……If China was able to get our entertainment complex, sports franchises, and parts of our corporate media to capitulate on the Hong Kong protests, imagine how they’re leveraging them over COVID-19.

    The American media is in a Chinese finger-trap

    Outlets shilling for the PRC fully deserve to be dubbed ‘enemies of the people’

    https://spectator.us/american-media-chinese-finger-trap/amp/
    __ _

    Sometimes what I read in here reminds me of this recent exchange:

    Sam Stein
    @samstein

    Nancy Pelosi once again bails out a Republican president in the midst of a national crisis.
    __ _

    Chop En
    @Amastan9
    ·
    She was trying to get relief to actual Americans, but nice headline

    _

    harkin (b64479)

  179. What needs to happen, harkin, is there needs to be an independent international investigation into the origins of this virus, one not dominated by any country including the United States.

    Make America Ordered Again (23f793)

  180. NJRob (4d595c) — 3/16/2020 @ 10:16 am

    Aren’t there potentially 2-4 different versions of this same virus? One of which is much more lethal than the others?

    There are seven (that have come to medical attention as infecting human beings directly from one person to another.)

    Four of them are considered cold viruses.

    Coronovirus #5 is SARS, which may not exist outside of a laboratory now. It is worse than a cold.

    Coronovirus #6 is MERS. It is still extant. It is something like 3 times as deadly as SARS.

    SARS is, or waa, more deadly than the four coronoviruses that Lysol kills (and so does any kind of soap) and MERS is more deadly than SARS.

    Coronovirus #7 is called severe respiratory acute syndrome coronovirus 2, or SARS-Cov-2 for short, or just call it SARS2, but the disease it causes is Coronovirus Disease of 20]19 or Covid-19.

    Probably thanks to successful Chinese lobbying of the World Health Organization.

    If you know every case of SARS2 you can stop the disease dead in its tracks, and they believe they’ve done that in Hong Kong or is that South Korea?

    Incidentally, if people take all these precautions then cases of flu and colds goes down too:

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-cant-spread-if-you-stay-home-11584132164

    During the 2003 SARS panic in Hong Kong, routine cold and flu diagnoses declined sharply—influenza was down 88%—thanks partly to people practicing safer hygiene. Or take Japan right now: A harsh flu season appears to have abruptly reversed itself since Japanese citizens began adopting coronavirus precautions. Flu visits to doctors are down 60% in relation to past years. Though it’s still early, Japan has lost 19 people to the coronavirus—and 3,300 last year to the flu.

    To state the obvious, measures that stop transmission of the flu also prevent transmission of coronavirus….

    …Remember, the stock market is telling us nothing about the coronavirus death rate. It’s telling us about corporate earnings in a context where curtailing economic activity is how we fight the virus. Unfortunately, a recession is part of the cure for an epidemic of communicable disease…

    …With the best of intentions, Dr. Anthony Fauci has linked his name to fatality rates equal to the flu’s or 10 times the flu’s (which would be about 1%). But notice that South Korea, one of the hard-hit countries, reports 0.6%. When it comes to such degrees of precision, you probably would want to tune out if you knew just how fuzzy the underlying flu extrapolations are….


    The virus will be a wild card in the presidential race. If New York City (with 12 times as many people as Seattle and they can’t all telecommute) shuts down, it’s a different ballgame.

    Sammy Finkelman (e4c3a1)

  181. 180. Make America Ordered Again (23f793) — 3/16/2020 @ 12:03 pm

    there needs to be an independent international investigation into the origins of this virus, one not dominated by any country including the United States.

    That does not rely on any co-operation from the government of China. That does not even go into China. But just relies on information that escaped censorship.

    Sammy Finkelman (e4c3a1)

  182. The investigation absolutely needs to involve and go to China. They may well be the victim here.

    Make America Ordered Again (23f793)

  183. No. It’s on both sides playing this stupid game. I suspect most of the ppl preaching that no matter what Trump does he’s made it worse don’t really think covid is a big deal either. It’s just the most current issue they want to use.

    I can’t speak for most people. But I’m legitimately concerned about this.

    It’s telling that the people criticizing Trump on this aren’t actually championing anything Biden has said on the issue. If you’re a D, or just want to dump Trump no matter what, you might want to spend some time thinking about who will actually be running in the fall. Biden was already on a rapid health decline and he might not survive a round of covid.

    It’s not binary. The fact that Trump is wrong doesn’t make Biden right. In fact, i’d be a lot happier with Trump’s performance if he was just in line with his own experts and using his reach and station to encourage compliance to their advice.

    Tangible example is Churches. I don’t think the government can tell us how many people area allowed to worship together. But I think there are many evangelical Christians who would take encouragement from Trump to minimize congregation size very seriously.

    Time123 (353edd)

  184. The investigation absolutely needs to involve and go to China. They may well be the victim here.

    Victim of what, nature, evolution, God, aliens?

    Colonel Klink (Ret) (305827)

  185. A biological attack.

    Make America Ordered Again (23f793)

  186. A biological attack.

    Oh FFS. By aliens, the other China, the US, Canada, Jamaica? Just WTF.

    Colonel Klink (Ret) (305827)

  187. The investigation needs to also be across America, including genetic sampling of strains of the virus, comparing them to the spread of cases.

    Why America, unique among nations, delayed early testing through supposed mistakes in its tests and refused to buy working tests must also be explored.

    Make America Ordered Again (23f793)

  188. The investigation needs to also be across America, including genetic sampling of strains of the virus, comparing them to the spread of cases.

    Why America, unique among nations, delayed early testing through supposed mistakes in its tests and refused to buy working tests must also be explored.

    Because the Illuminati and lizard people of course. Some of my best friends are lizard people, and they’d definitely do that.

    On a less ridiculous note.

    Actor Idris Elba announced on Monday that he has tested positive for the coronavirus.

    Elba made the announcement via a video with his wife, Sabrina, on Twitter.

    “This morning I tested positive for Covid 19,” he said in the tweet. “I feel ok, I have no symptoms so far but have been isolated since I found out about my possible exposure to the virus. Stay home people and be pragmatic. I will keep you updated on how I’m doing.”

    Colonel Klink (Ret) (305827)

  189. the US

    Yes. Also, Russia is another candidate nation. It could also have been an inadvertent release with an elaborate cover-up. There have been numerous security failures and failure to account for strains and samples in American labs. Fort Detrick’s related operations were temporarily shut down by CDC in August for precisely that reason.

    Make America Ordered Again (23f793)

  190. The alt-right is BIG on loopy conspiracy nuttery. According to a reference by MAOA, Ft. Dodad in the good ol’ USA is the bad actor here.

    Ragspierre (d9bec9)

  191. Why America, unique among nations, delayed early testing through supposed mistakes in its tests and refused to buy working tests must also be explored.

    While I think most of your stuff around the origin of Coronavirus strikes me as conspiracy theory nonsense I would love to see this question answered by a reliable source. Would this be the IG for HHS?

    Time123 (353edd)

  192. Back in the early 1950s, the U.S. conducted a furious bombing campaign during the Korean War, dropping hundreds of thousands of tons of ordnance, much of it napalm, on North Korea. The bombardment, worse than any country had received up to that point, excepting the effects of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, wiped out nearly every city in North Korea, contributing to well over a million civilian deaths. Because of the relentless bombing, the people were reduced to living in tunnels. Even the normally bellicose Gen. MacArthur claimed to find the devastation wreaked by the U.S. to be sickening.[1]

    Most controversially, both North Korea and China alleged that by early 1952, the U.S. was using biological or germ warfare weapons against both North Korea and China. The U.S. government has strenuously denied this. Nevertheless, captured U.S. flyers told their North Korean and Chinese captors about the use of such weapons. Later, after the prisoners were returned to U.S. custody, counterintelligence experts and psychiatrists interrogated them. They were told under the threat of court martial to renounce their confessions about germ warfare. They all did so.

    The Army Criminal Investigative Division officer in charge of interrogating returning prisoners, including airmen who confessed to use of biological weaponry on North Korea and China, was Army counter-intelligence specialist, Col. Boris Pash. Pash had previously been in charge of security for the most sensitive classified operations of the U.S. government in World War II. He was in charge of security at the Manhattan Project’s Berkeley Radiation Laboratory. (The Manhattan Project was the U.S. crash program to develop the atomic bomb.)

    In the immediate aftermath of the war, military intelligence officer Pash led the Alsos Mission, which searched for Nazi and Italian nuclear scientists and fissionable materials, as well as gathering “intelligence about any enemy scientific research applicable to his military effort,” including biological and chemical weapons.[2]

    To convince the world of the truth of their claim the U.S. had dropped biological weapons on their countries, and after turning down the suggestion that the International Red Cross look into the charges, the North Koreans and Chinese sponsored an investigating commission. Using the auspices of the World Peace Council, they gathered together a number of scientists from around the world, most of whom were sympathetic to either the Left or the peace movement. Most surprisingly, this commission, which came to be known as the International Scientific Commission, or ISC, was headed by one of the foremost British scientists of his time, Sir Joseph Needham.

    The ISC included scientists from a number of countries, including Sweden, France, Italy, and Brazil. The Soviet Union representative, Dr. N. N. Zhukov-Verezhnikov had been the chief medical expert at the Khabarovsk Trial of the Unit 731 Japanese officers accused of participating in bacteriological (aka biological, or germ) warfare before and during World War II, as well as conducting hideous experiments on prisoners to further that aim. Zhukov-Verezhnikov went on to write scientific articles through the 1970s.

    Needham himself, though pilloried in the Western press for his opinions on the controversy of U.S. use of biological weapons during the Korean War, remained a highly lauded scientist for years after the ISC report. He was elected a fellow of the British Academy in 1971. In 1992, the Queen conferred on him the Companionship of Honour.[3]

    The ISC travelled to China and North Korea in the summer of 1952 and by September produced the “Report of International Scientific Commission for the Investigation of the Facts Concerning Bacterial Warfare in Korea and China,” which corroborated the Chinese and North Korean claims that the U.S. had used biological weapons in an experimental fashion on civilian populations.

    The summary report was only some 60 pages long, but the ISC included over 600 pages of documentary material including statements from witnesses, including airmen involved in dropping the weaponry, as well as captured enemy agents; reports from doctors; journal articles from the United States; autopsy reports and lab tests; and photos and other materials. Most of this documentary material has been all but inaccessible for decades, with only a handful of copies of the ISC report in a few scattered libraries in the United States.

    From ISC Report, pg. 403

    The report concluded that the U.S. had used a number of biological weapons, including use of anthrax, plague, and cholera, disseminated by over a dozen of different devices or methods, including spraying, porcelain bombs, self-destroying paper containers with a paper parachute, and leaflet bombs, among others.

    This article is not meant to examine the full range of opinions or evidence about whether or not the U.S. used biological weapons in the Korean War. It is instead an attempt to publish essential documentation of such claims, documentation that has effectively been withheld from the American people, and the West in general, for decades.

    Excerpted from “The Long-suppressed Korean War Report on U.S. Use of Biological Weapons Released At Last” By Jeffrey S. Kaye

    Agent Orange, the atomic bombs dropped on Japan, firebombings of Dresden. It is not absurd to think the US is capable of using these weapons or would cover up an inadvertent use of them if they could.

    Make America Ordered Again (23f793)

  193. For what it’s worth, nk thinks it was the Russians.

    Make America Ordered Again (23f793)

  194. Or, or, I know, it’s crazy unlikely, nature. But sure, in the infinitude of the multiverse, literally anything is possible, 99.99e-99 percent likelihood that it’s not, but sure.

    Colonel Klink (Ret) (305827)

  195. There’s a reason governments around the world are flipping out over this more than they ever have over any other illness, despite it not causing that many deaths yet. Sure, it’s the virulence, but also many must suspect or be asking themselves if it was a bioweapon.

    Even China’s a candidate nation, with an inadvertent release from their Wuhan BSL-4 lab.

    Make America Ordered Again (23f793)

  196. Most viruses of this genus would burn themselves out in hot weather. This isn’t, unfortunately, and I was optimistic that it would. It’s causing deaths in the Philippines, in Malaysia, etc. This doesn’t prove it’s weaponized, but it is something you would want, if you were a more northerly nation, in a weaponized strain.

    Make America Ordered Again (23f793)

  197. from Drudge:

    ‘Do not call 911 just because you ran out of toilet paper’, Oregon police say

    Alls I know is we didn’t never run outta toilet paper when the black guy was president

    Dave (1bb933)

  198. There’s a reason governments around the world are flipping out over this more than they ever have over any other illness, despite it not causing that many deaths yet. Sure, it’s the virulence, but also many must suspect or be asking themselves if it was a bioweapon.

    That’s the worst kind of gaslighting. There is not a single iota of a scintilla of actual evidence of that.

    I know, if there is no evidence of it, it must mean that it’s a fantastic global conspiracy, that only you know about, with your deep knowledge of both epidemiology, virology, and spy craft.

    Colonel Klink (Ret) (305827)

  199. You’re quote mining.

    Make America Ordered Again (23f793)

  200. Agent Orange, the atomic bombs dropped on Japan, firebombings of Dresden. It is not absurd to think the US is capable of using these weapons or would cover up an inadvertent use of them if they could.

    Yeah. It really IS absurd. Totally.

    As is even mentioning agent orange (which is NOT T-rump’s CIA moniker) and atomic bombs in the same sentence.

    You make me laugh…!!!

    Ragspierre (d9bec9)

  201. Trump just showed a PowerPoint slide printed on paper, like it was a vaccine, that gave all the symptoms of CV-19, and that you should quarantine, and said it was “made by a group of very talented people and it is not available.” The PowerPoint, is now available, WE’RE SAVED!!!!

    Colonel Klink (Ret) (305827)

  202. “it is now available”

    Colonel Klink (Ret) (305827)

  203. god bless mr president trump

    we all knew he would deliver us from the valley of the shadow of death

    Dave (1bb933)

  204. Your comment is awaiting moderation.

    Not again…

    Dave (1bb933)

  205. Asked about his remark yesterday that coronavirus is under “tremendous control”

    “We are doing a very good job within the confines of what we’re dealing with.”

    “We’re doing a very good job, there’s been a tremendous amount of the way they’re working together, they’re working hand in hand. I think they’re doing really a great job. And from that standpoint, that’s what I was referring to.”

    ???

    Colonel Klink (Ret) (305827)

  206. Asked about his remark yesterday that coronavirus is under “tremendous control”

    “We are doing a very good job within the confines of what we’re dealing with.”

    “We’re doing a very good job, there’s been a tremendous amount of the way they’re working together, they’re working hand in hand. I think they’re doing really a great job. And from that standpoint, that’s what I was referring to.”

    ???

    tldr;

    “No, I don’t take responsibility at all”

    Dave (1bb933)

  207. If reported cases continue to rise exponentially at the current rate, we could have 96 million cases before May 1. Exponential growth is a bitch.

    Or 16 jillion by December. Things that can’t go on, won’t.

    And why would our experience be so radically different that the Chinese who have worse health care, worse sanitation, worse government, 4 times the population crowed together, and were the epicenter?

    I don’t know where you are getting this stuff from, but it doesn’t seem entirely hinged.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  208. I have OCD and I’ve been washing my hands probably close to thirty five times a day for years. But the threat of this virus has put me in a living Hell.

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  209. If what I read is correct, China suffered much less during the Spanish Flu because the virus actually originated there (not Spain) and they had developed some immunity to it. Are we sure the same isn’t the case with CV?

    Munroe (dd6b64)

  210. I think his lies and inaction will cause deaths but certainly not the lion’s share.

    Lies, yes. I wish that he’d get off the stage here. But sometimes when he talks the market goes up, and sometimes it goes down. And sometimes when he is incorrectly criticized (like the Alphabet/Google “confusion” that has now been debunked (by Google)), the market goes down, too.

    As for inaction, Dr Fauci said yesterday that he agrees with Trump’s travel bans, even though Trump has been attacked for “overreacting” and “racism” by all the usual suspects. Most of the action that has been taken is not Trump’s to take, being a federal system. The only thing he could do going forward is shut down air travel, and I expect that this week.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  211. #206. Rereading our hosts comment again, I see that he also doesn’t believe it will rise to 96 million cases. But there is nothing to suggest it will be remotely exponential assuming that local authorities continue as they are.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  212. If what I read is correct, China suffered much less during the Spanish Flu because the virus actually originated there (not Spain) and they had developed some immunity to it. Are we sure the same isn’t the case with CV?

    What you read is not true, its probably start point was Haskell County Kansas. It was never thought to be Spain, and the “evidence” of Chinese origination comes from the false belief that it wasn’t as severe there.

    The lower estimates of the Chinese death toll are based on the low mortality rates that were found in Chinese port-cities (for example, Hong Kong) and on the assumption that poor communications prevented the flu from penetrating the interior of China. However, some contemporary newspaper and post office reports, as well as reports from missionary doctors, suggest that the flu did penetrate the Chinese interior and that influenza was bad in some locations in the countryside of China.

    Colonel Klink (Ret) (305827)

  213. As for inaction, Dr Fauci said yesterday that he agrees with Trump’s travel bans, even though Trump has been attacked for “overreacting” and “racism” by all the usual suspects

    It’s also the sloppy way they plan, coordinate and role these things out. The EU travel ban and screening is a good example. They didn’t have a complete plan that made sense, Trump communicated what was happening incorrectly, and they weren’t ready for the execution. It resulted in more confusion disruption, and potentially contamination than it needed to.

    Time123 (353edd)

  214. Yup. Starting with the lies about containment and failure to heed warnings about the need for testing and social distancing early enough. You bet he deserves some blame and I predict he will get even more blame from the voters then he deserves.

    That depends on how bad it gets. Remember that the flu kills 30-60K in the US every year. If this doesn’t cross that threshold despite being far more deadly and virulent (and no vaccine), then he comes off looking pretty good, and the “containment” argument (particularly the “bought us time” variation) looks a lot better. We had enough time for the wheels of government to turn as we watched other countries make all the mistakes.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  215. It’s also the sloppy way they plan, coordinate and role these things out.

    This is government, run by the same sort of people who run the VA, the Post Office and would run your medical care given the chance. WTF do you expect? Here, we have no choice as it requires force and the government has a monopoly on that.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  216. “No, I don’t take responsibility at all”

    Would Bernie or Biden?

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  217. 192. Just think: Ordinary soldiers knew it, but the only soldiers who ever admitted rhe truth were captives in North Korea> And the World Peace Council???

    Not even Bernie Sanders believes that.

    Sammy Finkelman (e4c3a1)

  218. Trump gives himself a 10 out of 10.

    Colonel Klink (Ret) (305827)

  219. And sometimes when he is incorrectly criticized (like the Alphabet/Google “confusion” that has now been debunked (by Google)), the market goes down, too.

    BS. Pay attention to chronology.

    Ragspierre (d9bec9)

  220. BS. Pay attention to chronology.

    Time is a flat circle.

    Colonel Klink (Ret) (305827)

  221. 175, 177. Internet reproaches are not helpful

    Iowan2 (bbb95d)

  222. Trump gives himself a 10 out of 10.

    I’ll take “Who Could Have Imagined?” for 400, Alex.

    Dave (1bb933)

  223. Internet reproaches are not helpful

    You should avoid them in future then.

    Ragspierre (d9bec9)

  224. Grocery run report. Finally managed to get through one, mid-afternoon. Less overt panic but still a definistive sense of concern in the air. Here’s a dispatch from the front: some brutal realities. Store hours restricted- 8 to 8. I’m suited up w/mask and gloves like a nerd reporting for work at the lunar lab. The local bug spreading beaners casually shopping were not.

    Chatted w/a teacher who was also fitted out w/mask and gloves– said kids out of school three weeks and she gets full pay plus overtime as registrar if called in. Said the schools are feeding kids and families regardless given the need if they show up as in many cses, it’s the kid’ main meal of their day. [No doubt any fresh food would go bad anyway so put it to use.] Said she had family working as paramedics and in a local hospital; said her family indicated the system as set up is unprepared and weeks behind; suggested she not go out for a week or two. Said the country should be locked down for a few weeks as well.

    No TP. No paper towels. No paper napkins. No fresh meat– fresh chicken, fresh steak or fresh ground beef [frozen burger patties and bagged chicken parts plentiful.] No bread. No rice. No french fries- but plenty of bags of ‘Tater Tots.’ No pasta product vrieties or pasta sauces. Nearly all frozen pizza gone; same w/t frozen lasagna as well. Frozen entrees available but limited varieties. Bottled water nearly gone; soda pop still available; booze, too. But no bottled juices. No condensed canned soup– they cut the price to 15-17 cents/can to help out– shelves cleaned out of every soup name brand and aftermarket– even the lousy stuff. Canned tuna fish as well. No peanut butter– but plenty of jams an jellies. No canned veggies left–except green beans… [go figure.] Literally grabbed the last can of baked beans. Fresh veggies available but no big bags of potatoes or prepared salad packs. Plenty of apples and oranges– seems to be a run on bananas, though. Ice cream, milk and butter available– but eggs and cheese varieties were scarce. Plenty of pet food, coffee and cereals but very few boxes of crackers left.

    People seem to be adjusting well but any elderly shoppers seemed to be genuinely dazed which is sad to see- but they at least are wearing muffs and masks. The store manager and checker both said they expect only partial shipments and that a ‘lockdown’ is coming.

    Fun times!

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  225. Time123 (353edd) — 3/16/2020 @ 12:13 pm

    Tangible example is Churches. I don’t think the government can tell us how many people area allowed to worship together. But I think there are many evangelical Christians who would take encouragement from Trump to minimize congregation size very seriously.

    I don’t like that Trump didn’t do this sooner but this should be past tense now. This weekend most of the evangelical churches in my area were online only. My conversations from Friday to Sunday with many of my friends I’d put in the evangelical camp changed radically.

    frosty (f27e97)

  226. What’s a “beaner”, DCSCA?

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  227. Interesting conversation w/Scripps medical center this afternoon. Given the situation, family decided to reschedule a routine doctor visit on the 25 back 30 days into April as a precaution for the 89 year old given the bug-a-boo in the air. Med Center said they are suggesting to all March/April patients to move scheduled appointments into May as they see things developing. So they have a better fix at ground level on this than Mikey and his crew.

    @226. As obvious as white on rice; which does go good w/beans BTW.

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  228. The Dow down 2,977 at close. Trump needs to self-quarantine.

    nk (1d9030)

  229. @226 It’s a rude term for Latinos.

    Nic (896fdf)

  230. Here’s some examples of fake news. It would really benefit the public if Trump spent a bit of energy tearing them down. Normally I’d say this stuff is benieth the office of the president, but I don’t think that applies here.

    A

    s the global coronavirus outbreak continues to shutter businesses and schools across America and upend the stock market, a number of commentators on the right have been busily floating conspiracy theories about what’s behind the outbreak, or even how real it is.

    Time123 (ea2b98)

  231. @225, Frosty that’s good to know. I have a cousin that as of this last Sunday was telling me that his church was in full swing.

    Time123 (a7a01b)

  232. @229. No.

    It’s not.

    It’s well earned and at times deserved– by INS dodging Mexicans.

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  233. It’s well earned and at times deserved– by INS dodging Mexicans.

    Your gift of discernment is truly…unbelievable.

    Ragspierre (d9bec9)

  234. @232 Whether you think it’s deserved or not, it’s still rude. As I tell my students, “THOT is still a rude name, regardless of how many boys she’s gone out with.” (THOT= “That Ho Over There”)

    Nic (896fdf)

  235. @209. As for inaction, Dr Fauci said yesterday that he agrees with Trump’s travel bans, even though Trump has been attacked for “overreacting” and “racism” by all the usual suspects.

    Dr. Fauci is showing symptoms–

    …of being star-struck.

    When you’ve worked in media and especially in Tinseltown-it gets a little EZ to spot.

    He likea them Leicas.

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  236. @232. Except it’s not.

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  237. ^234.

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  238. Except it’s not.

    As my grandmother used to say, “Yes. That’s what I know”.

    Ragspierre (d9bec9)

  239. @236 You were clearly using it in an insulting way about the people you were talking about, how can you argue it isn’t rude?

    Nic (896fdf)

  240. @239. Because it’s not. An I’m getting old and less tolerant of coughing illegals and rude Mexicans blathering Spanish, too damn lazy to assimilate and speak English in a U.S. grocery store or in line at the Bank of Ammrica, that’s why…

    This is still my favorite joke:

    An old DC-3 was making a hop between Phoenix and San Antonio w/4 passengers. On board was a Frenchman, a Brit, an American and a Mexican. The plane took off but at about 3,000 feet the right engine began to sputter. A worried pilot announced ‘we gotta lose some weigh–get rid of the cargo.’ So the four opened the door and got rid of everything – including the parachutes. ‘We’re still losing attitude– we gotta lose more weight,’ announced the pilot.

    So the Frenchman stood up, saluted and said,’ Vive La France’ and jumped out of the plane. ‘We’re still going down– lose more weight’ said the frantic pilot. The Brit stood up, stiffened his upper lip, and said ‘God Save The Queen’- and jumped out of the plane. “We’re till going down– just a little more ought to do it,” said the pilot.

    So the American stood up, straightened his tie and shouted, ‘Remember the Alamo!”– picked up the Mexican and threw him out of the plane.

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  241. That is rude and insulting, DCSCA. Unfit for viewing.

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  242. @241. But popular t cocktail parties in the oil biz.

    What color was your parachute?

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  243. I pray and hope, that a buff Anthony Munoz or Tito Ortiz like CBP or SDPD overhears thee and says to hell with professionalism. You clearly deserve it. When the travel bans are lifted, I’ll throw you in the cargo hold of a British Airways plane, go enjoy the remnant bones of your NHS.

    urbanleftbehind (360fd9)

  244. @243. No sense of humor? ‘Build The Wall! Build The Wall’– it’s all the rage these days.

    And you know damn well why.

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  245. Dr Fauci yesterday:

    When asked if its contagiousness and lethality are worse than the flu, Fauci emphatically said, “Well yes, I mean it just is, and we’ve gotta face that fact.”

    DRJ (15874d)

  246. Most of the churches in my area did not meet but mine did. Our Coronavirus adjustment was bread only, no wine.

    DRJ (15874d)

  247. Our church has cancelled regular services for now, but the priests will still be there. No liturgy and no communion for the rest of us, and signs for people who come in to light a candle and pray to only bow to the icons and not kiss them.

    nk (1d9030)

  248. Way to go, Dollar General. The park district gym across the street from me should do a variation of this as well, particularly the free walk/run track.

    urbanleftbehind (360fd9)

  249. “Even China’s a candidate nation, with an inadvertent release from their Wuhan BSL-4 lab.”

    – MAOA

    Where did you read that there was such a thing as a “Wuhan BSL-4 lab”? Link please. Would like to assess your primary source material.

    “If what I read is correct, China suffered much less during the Spanish Flu because the virus actually originated there (not Spain) and they had developed some immunity to it.”

    – Munroe

    Where did you read that? Link, please. Would like to assess. Your ideas intrigue me etc and so forth.

    Leviticus (28a6ca)

  250. 245. I can’t believe how many people are out there eating up Fauci’s baloney because “experts.” Fear has made a lot of grovelling lapdogs out of formerly conservative anti-government cynics.

    Gryph (08c844)

  251. “That is rude and insulting, DCSCA. Unfit for viewing.”

    Isn’t that basically your entire political platform?

    Leviticus (28a6ca)

  252. I can’t believe how many people are out there eating up Fauci’s baloney because “experts.” Fear has made a lot of grovelling lapdogs out of formerly conservative anti-government cynics.

    What exactly is the bologna? Be specific.

    Colonel Klink (Ret) (305827)

  253. @251. It’s Haiku’s post- driven away.

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  254. @250. You’ll probably get a lot better information and substantive directives from your local government officials closer to the street dealing with this than from these limelighted jackels in the White House briefing room.

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  255. Meanwhile, one of AOC’s cousins getting out of pocket:
    http://nypost.com/2020/03/14/cops-bust-suspect-in-coronavirus-related-hate-crime-on-asian-man/:

    urbanleftbehind (360fd9)

  256. 252. The baloney is that CoViD-19 is more deadly than seasonal flu. It is certainly more virulent and easier to transmit, but that does not necessarily make it more deadly. “Flattening the curve” looks to me to be just another way for the elites of Babylon-on-Potomac to justify the biggest power grab since Obamacare.

    Gryph (08c844)

  257. The baloney is that CoViD-19 is more deadly than seasonal flu. It is certainly more virulent and easier to transmit, but that does not necessarily make it more deadly. “Flattening the curve” looks to me to be just another way for the elites of Babylon-on-Potomac to justify the biggest power grab since Obamacare.

    Thankfully, sane people see things differently. Of course, with you’re deep knowledge of the…a?..subject, maybe you know more than Fauci, and the thousands of other scientists globally.

    Colonel Klink (Ret) (305827)

  258. 257. I’m insane for not trusting the government? I’m insane for thinking that we should be worrying about isolating the vulnerable instead of isolating everyone else from the vulnerable? Good gawd…what a bunch of sheep.

    Gryph (08c844)

  259. The data on which I am basing my assertions is in the public domain.

    Gryph (08c844)

  260. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 2,997 points.

    All these measures, coming one on top of the other, changing even before they can be implemented, are causing people to think ahead are increasing the perceoved probability and depth of a economic downturn.

    If there weren’t te health/closedown measures, then maybe the Fed’s emergency rate cuts wouldn’t increase the financial panic, but its their very strength that pushes people to sell – and short sell.

    Sammy Finkelman (e4c3a1)


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