Patterico's Pontifications

3/9/2020

President Trump Tries Tweeting Away Fear To Bring the Market Back To Life

Filed under: General — Dana @ 10:28 am



[guest post by Dana]

After the market opened this morning:

Comparing the coronavirus to the flu seems questionable, at the least. Here is Dr. Anthony Fauci, a member of the White House coronavirus task force and director of the National Intitute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, addressing the validity of such a comparison:

“Yes and no,” Fauci said, cautioning that the comparison is suitable in some respects, but not in others.

“It clearly is much more lethal, if you want to call it that, than the typical seasonal flu,” he said.

The seasonal flu mortality rate is about 0.1 percent, while information thus far, particularly from China, indicates the coronavirus mortality rate is around 2 to 2.3 percent, Fauci said, adding that the number might be a little lower if all cases around the world were counted.

He said that like the flu, coronavirus will most commonly afflict older people with underlying health problems, while infections in young, healthy individuals can still occur, although be more unusual.

In a projection of the outbreak in the coming weeks, Fauci said “the American people really need to realize” that more cases will pop up in communities in which there is no identified source.

“It’s unrealistic to think it’s not going to happen,” Fauci said. “It is how we handle it that’s important.”

While there are similarities between the coronavirus and the flu, there are key differences between the two:

The COVID-19 situation is changing rapidly. Since this disease is caused by a new virus, people do not have immunity to it, and a vaccine may be many months away. Doctors and scientists are working on estimating the mortality rate of COVID-19, but at present, it is thought to be higher than that of most strains of the flu.

I like this take on Trump’s efforts to “tweet away” the fear, both of the market fall and the virus itself:

The comparison to flu is a dangerous one because flu doesn’t spread exponentially, because we have decades of experience treating it, and because the worst cases of flu are not as severe as this virus. If we’re really going to judge public policy on the number of American deaths alone, then all our anti-terrorism efforts are even more wasteful and should be dedicated to getting Americans to stop driving automobiles.

My guess is that when it comes to coronavirus there is a psychological response mechanism at work in most people: Most of us have an instinctive opinion that the world is either too easily panicked or too difficult to rouse from sleepwalking. In this case, I fall in the latter category. Some people pass from one to the other…

I don’t think Trump’s sweet talk is going to work, and it may be having the opposite effect of what he intends. In part, the market is giving a judgment — maybe a hasty one — on Trump’s ability to address a public-health crisis. If he takes the market seriously, he should respond with more than a few tweets.

Which begs the question, just how seriously is Trump taking this crisis? Being more concerned with how it reflects on him personally, rather than being more concerned with the safety of Americans is not a stretch, by any means.

–Dana

119 Responses to “President Trump Tries Tweeting Away Fear To Bring the Market Back To Life”

  1. We are in the best of hands, we are in the best of hands… just keep telling yourself that.

    Dana (4fb37f)

  2. The funny thing is that the main thing he needs to do here is be honest and give people accurate information. He doesn’t even need to do it himself. He just needs to make sure the information get’s out there and then put his energy around getting what containment can be done, done quickly.

    But for some reason that’s beyond him.

    Time123 (f5cf77)

  3. and a vaccine may be many months away.

    On the interview I heard (on MTP), Fauci talked about the vaccine being about a year away. But he also said something about it being available in time for the 2020/21 flu season.

    kishnevi (496414)

  4. BTW

    23,966.67 −1,898.11 (7.34%)
    Mar 9, 1:45 PM EDT ·

    About 180 points above today’s low (so far).

    kishnevi (496414)

  5. The numbers from South Korea are probably the best mortality rate indicators (see here), and they’re at 0.6%, which is still six times higher than common flu. It’s enough to take precautions.

    Paul Montagu (d6528e)

  6. “In part, the market is giving a judgment — maybe a hasty one — on Trump’s ability to address a public-health crisis.“

    Ah yes, those who believe this were giving credit to Trump’s judgment when the market went on its best run in many years.

    Munroe (dd6b64)

  7. The funny thing is that the main thing he needs to do here is be honest and give people accurate information. He doesn’t even need to do it himself. He just needs to make sure the information get’s out there and then put his energy around getting what containment can be done, done quickly.

    He can’t do this because he needs to make this about him. He will paint whatever picture necessary to come out the hero, knowing that his loyal supporters will believe whatever he says.

    Dana (4fb37f)

  8. If you can keep your head when all about you
    Are losing theirs and blaming it on you,
    If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you,
    But make allowance for their doubting too;
    If you can wait and not be tired by waiting,
    Or being lied about, don’t deal in lies,
    Or being hated, don’t give way to hating,
    And yet don’t look too good, nor talk too wise

    It does, of course, go on. All the real men are dead. And I’m not feeling all that great myself.

    PTw (b4fb33)

  9. our president mr donald is genetically superior to the harvardtrash ladyboys who call themselves experts just because they studied and worked on this for decades

    people always forget that

    Dave (1bb933)

  10. @5:

    The numbers from South Korea are probably the best mortality rate indicators, and they’re at 0.6%, which is still six times higher than common flu. It’s enough to take precautions.

    Yes, Paul, the Korean numbers are the best indicator, and the mortality rate here (I’m in Korea) is, like all others, based on confirmed cases, which will inevitably turn out to be miniscule compared to the number of actual cases of infection that never get tested. The common flu mortality rates (such as the 0.1% everyone cites) are based on estimates of total actual cases (rather than just the tiny percentage that get tested and confirmed), and these estimates can only be made after the epidemic has passed, necessarily. And even at that, they are just rough guesses. Take a look at the CDC website’s estimates on annual flu cases and deaths in the U.S. for example. The ranges are enormous, because most people never get tested for the simple reason that they never get significant symptoms. Just as in the case of this coronavirus.

    Please don’t let the numbers being thrown around in the media get dancing in your head. I live in Korea, and there are coronavirus confirmed cases in my neighborhood. The economy is falling, but the sky is not.

    Daren Jonescu (ad8e67)

  11. Saudi Arabia and Russia are arguing over the price and flow of oil. That, and the Fake News, is the reason for the market drop!–Donald J. Trump, econ. moron

    I’m sorry, that is just stooooooooopid. The opposite would be true, and all over the world EXCEPT in Russia and Saudi Arabia.

    Ragspierre (d9bec9)

  12. Just received from my department chair:

    “… The campus is asking us to prepare for the eventuality that we may have to operate remotely for the spring quarter …”

    (Winter quarter ends next week; Spring quarter starts at the beginning of April)

    Washington, Stanford, USC and Columbia have already suspended some face-to-face classes.

    Dave (1bb933)

  13. Other world markets have fallen 7%, in line with the Dow, earlier today. All hail Lord God Emperor Trump with His Global Reach. With His great power and outstretched arm, is there nothing too hard for Him? Perhaps He punishes us for our lack of faith?

    PTw (894877)

  14. Ah yes, those who believe this were giving credit to Trump’s judgment when the market went on its best run in many years.

    http://www.seeitmarket.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/growth-value-stock-market-chart-2015.gif

    Because Trump’s judgment had spit to do with it.

    Oh, and he’s actually hurt the economy with his idiot crap, though he did sign the Ryan/McConnell tax cuts.

    Yea…

    Ragspierre (d9bec9)

  15. Perhaps He punishes us for our lack of faith?

    The judgments of the Trump are true and righteous altogether.

    Dave (1bb933)

  16. Domestic air travel may be safe or it may not be safe:

    Frisco man has a “presumptive positive” case of the new coronavirus, Collin County health officials say.

    The man is in his 30s and recently traveled to California, Collin County Health Care Services officials said in a statement. He is self-quarantined at his home in stable condition.

    The CCHCS is awaiting further testing to confirm the initial results since the patient’s symptoms have not required hospitalization, the statement read.

    We each make decisions for ourselves. Hopefully we get good information to make those decisions, instead of guessing.

    DRJ (15874d)

  17. Maybe air travel is safe and it is California that is unsafe. Anyone want to quarantine the West coast?

    DRJ (15874d)

  18. Did Snowman Kudlow say the virus was “cocained” — or “contained”?!? Never can tell with that dude.

    Cable News Hysteria.

    “It was the TV.” – Nurse Diesel [Cloris Leachman] ‘High Anxiety’ 1977

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  19. Fortunately Texas has figured out that waiting for federal test kits is unworkable. The state lab is testing some (all?) Texas patients.

    DRJ (15874d)

  20. The seasonal flu mortality rate is about 0.1 percent, while information thus far, particularly from China, indicates the coronavirus mortality rate is around 2 to 2.3 percent, Fauci said, adding that the number might be a little lower if all cases around the world were counted.

    But China was not diagnosing many cases because it required a DNA est to do that and there was a waiting list for that, then they went to considering any case of pneumonia (in or around Whunhan anyway) to be coronovirus, and now they seem to be back again to not diagnosing it.

    They reported only 99 new cases the day before yesterday.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/07/world/asia/china-coronavirus-cost.html

    Officials reported only 99 new cases on Saturday, down from around 2,000 a day just weeks ago, and for the second day in a row, none were detected in Hubei Province outside of its capital, Wuhan, the center of the outbreak.

    They are arguing it is contained and their propaganda machine is pushing the idea that the quarantine strategy worked, and other countries should try that,

    China says the trend proves that its containment measures — which include a lockdown on nearly 60 million people in Hubei and strict quarantine and travel restrictions for hundreds of millions of citizens and foreigners — are working. And it has begun trying to promote its efforts as successful in propaganda at home and abroad.

    Thia is how much of a loony bin (as someone here put it) China is:

    Outside of Hubei, China wants to fire up its economy, but local officials are also under immense pressure to take no risks in order to reduce the number of infections. Even as provinces have lowered their alert levels for the virus, many companies are choosing to err on the side of caution. Some have even faked electricity consumption rates in order to hit stringent back-to-work targets, according to a recent report by Caixin, an influential Chinese magazine.

    The 2 to 3.3% figure comes from the time when the were diagnosing it, but really that is only people who were very sick and required medical treatment.

    That’s not the infection rate.

    Sammy Finkelman (9570ad)

  21. So this guy almost certainly traveled thru Love or DFW. No risk there, right?

    DRJ (15874d)

  22. So last year 37,000 Americans died from the common Flu. It averages between 27,000 and 70,000 per year. Nothing is shut down, life & the economy go on. At this moment there are 546 confirmed cases of CoronaVirus, with 22 deaths. Think about that!

    He’s not necessarily wrong, but we don’t know that he’s right either. It’s a growing problem and we don’t know how fast and big it will grow.

    Make America Ordered Again (23f793)

  23. The current world population is 7.8 billion as of March 2020 according to the most recent United Nations estimates elaborated by Worldometer. The term “World Population” refers to the human population (the total number of humans currently living) of the world.’ -source worldmeter

    As of 7 March 2020, more than 102,000 cases [of coronavirus] have been confirmed, of which 7,100 were classified as serious. 97 countries and territories have been affected, with major outbreaks in central China, South Korea, Italy, and Iran.’ source, wikicoughcount

    Do the math.

    It is not bubonic plague. Nor an ELE. It’s an irrational, emotionally driven response to yet another facet of modern life absurdly politicized then stirred into the entertainment mix of the cable news stew that’s fed to the public hour after hour.

    “Oil fields. Oil. That’s it, isn’t it? This whole damn thing was about oil! Wasn’t it? Wasn’t it?” – Joe Turner [Robert Redford] ‘Three Days Of The Condor’ 1975

    _____

    R.I.P. Max von Sydow

    ‘You have not much future there…’ eh, Joubert?

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  24. He’s not necessarily wrong, but we don’t know that he’s right either. It’s a growing problem and we don’t know how fast and big it will grow.

    When the facts change, your conclusions need to also change. Nothing I’ve seen from Trump gives me confidence that he will react to new facts by changing his actions.

    Time123 (f5cf77)

  25. It is surprising to see people who think FAKE NEWS! is horrible when it comes from the media be so cavalier about unreliable government news from the President.

    DRJ (15874d)

  26. Xi Jinping thought he could put the quarantine in Hobei province and other places into effect without attracting the notice of Donald Trump. Or at least, that he wouldn’t act on the basis that say what’s good for internal movement within China, is good for movement from China to the rest of the world.

    China is also beginning to push the idea that maybe this virus did not originate in China. (They have never allowed its origin to be investigated by outsiders.)

    https://www.globalresearch.ca/china-coronavirus-shocking-update/5705196

    The Western media quickly took the stage and laid out the official narrative for the outbreak of the new coronavirus which appeared to have begun in China, claiming it to have originated with animals at a wet market in Wuhan.

    [That was the Chinese government’s narrative, because they maintained in December that there was no human-to-human transmission. And they let people in the hospital in Wuhan think it was SARS.]

    [continuing the quote]

    In fact the origin was for a long time unknown but it appears likely now, according to Chinese and Japanese reports, that the virus originated elsewhere, from multiple locations, but began to spread widely only after being introduced to the market.

    {probably correct so far. They needed the market to argue there was no human to human transmission, which they maintained until Jan 5. And probably the only reason they reported it at all to the World Health Organization on December 31 was that a message from Li Wentling went viral. He was an ophthalmologist in Wuhan Central Hospital, and had a WeChat mailing list fellow alumni of Wuhan University, and he said thst there were seven cases of SARS from Wuhan Central Food Market.]

    [continuing further from he article]

    More to the point, it appears that the virus did not originate in China and, according to reports in Japanese and other media, may have originated in the US….

    …China’s top respiratory specialist Zhong Nanshan said on January 27

    “Though the COVID-19 was first discovered in China, it does not mean that it originated from China”

    “But that is Chinese for “it originated someplace else, in another country”. (4)

    This of course raises questions as to the actual location of origin. If the authorities pursued their analysis through 100 genome samples from 12 countries, they must have had a compelling reason to be searching for the original source outside China.

    Sure they did. A political and ecoomic reason.

    All (or most) of what the government of China is interested in is that no cases should be traced back to China. Then they can declare it wiped out, and if any cases in China become known say it ws brought into China by some visitor.

    They’ve got these stories now in the Japanese press that up to 14,000 Americans died of coronovirus, but it was attributed to influenza because nobody noticed it wasn’t the flu. That claim wet viral in China. One version is that the virus underwent another mutation in China.

    Sammy Finkelman (9570ad)

  27. 24. Time123 (f5cf77) — 3/9/2020 @ 12:20 pm

    Nothing I’ve seen from Trump gives me confidence that he will react to new facts by changing his actions.

    He doesn’t react to facts, but he reacts to other people’s beliefs about the facts.

    Which is somewhat correlated.

    Sammy Finkelman (9570ad)

  28. DRJ @21.

    So this guy almost certainly traveled thru Love or DFW. No risk there, right?

    – Rick Cotton, executive director of the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey, which runs the airports, and other transportation things, has tested positive for the coronavirus. The other day he visited all their sites.

    Sammy Finkelman (9570ad)

  29. He reacts to what he sees and hears on teevee.

    The facts have nothing to do with it.

    Dave (1bb933)

  30. 24. Time123 (f5cf77) — 3/9/2020 @ 12:20 pm
    Nothing I’ve seen from Trump gives me confidence that he will react to new facts by changing his actions.
    He doesn’t react to facts, but he reacts to other people’s beliefs about the facts.

    Which is somewhat correlated.

    Sammy Finkelman (9570ad) — 3/9/2020 @ 12:27 pm

    But he reacts by trying to change what they believe, not in adjusting his actions to new information.

    Time123 (457a1d)

  31. Israel orders 14-day quarantine for all international arrivals

    Israel is imposing a required self-quarantine of two weeks on international arrivals amid the spread of the new coronavirus.

    Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made this announcement on Monday, calling it “a tough decision” but one that “is essential to maintain public health,” per The Washington Post.

    In Israel, 42 cases of the COVID-19 coronavirus have been confirmed thus far, and the number of cases worldwide has passed 100,000. Already, Israel was requiring quarantines for those arriving from certain countries like Italy and South Korea, but the Post writes the new restrictions “would be among the strictest in countries battling the outbreak.”

    CNN notes the quarantine rule applies to “Israeli citizens and foreign nationals alike,” and “those foreign nationals who are unable to demonstrate to Israeli border authorities that they will be able to self-quarantine for two weeks will not be allowed to enter the country.”

    Netanyahu is a well-known patsy for irrational left-wing media hype, so I’m sure there’s no good reason for this.

    Dave (1bb933)

  32. ‘… unreliable government news from the President.’

    That train left the station years ago when Trump and Spicer disputed crowd size on the Mall hours after the inauguration– all photographic evidence to the contrary. Few seriously factor in anything Trump says or tweets beyond the boundaries of general entertainment.

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  33. (1) Nobody in this comment thread is afraid of the coronavirus.
    (2) Nobody in this thread is wearing a facemask.
    (3) Nobody in this thread is taking precautions beyond what they would for the flu.
    (4) Nobody in this thread believes that the administration isn’t doing a good job of protecting the public.
    (5) Everybody in this thread is overjoyed that the press has whipped up market-panicking fear over the coronavirus, because they think that will take down Trump.
    (6) Everybody in this thread will be disappointed in a few weeks that not enough people have died from the coronavirus to justify continued panic.
    (7) Trump will be re-elected.

    Jenny from Iowa (f28c9c)

  34. Gee, 22 Americans confirmed dead of coronavirus.

    Meanwhile, in the past 24 hours, 29 Americans have been reported killed by gun violence.

    https://www.gunviolencearchive.org/reports/number-of-gun-deaths

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  35. Meanwhile, in the past 24 hours, 29 Americans have been reported killed by gun violence.

    Whoever reported that is lying.

    Ragspierre (d9bec9)

  36. @35. Ignorance is bliss; stay happy.

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  37. (4) Nobody in this thread believes that the administration isn’t doing a good job of protecting the public.

    Again, the iron-bound refusal to read that you find in the T-rumpian cult is astounding.

    Ragspierre (d9bec9)

  38. (1) Nobody in this comment thread is afraid of the coronavirus.

    Not necessarily true. I am rethinking a couple of plans because (i) would involve visiting a retirement community which I don’t want to infect inadvertently and (ii) would involve taking a cruise.

    (2) Nobody in this thread is wearing a facemask.

    True enough. I just can’t…

    (3) Nobody in this thread is taking precautions beyond what they would for the flu.

    Not true. See my #1.

    (4) Nobody in this thread believes that the administration isn’t doing a good job of protecting the public.

    The failure to produce testing kits is a definite fail on the protection front. I don’t blame Trump for that. The real problem is don’t trust Trump to allow the government to tell the truth about the spreading of the virus and the steps to take. This is a real problem if this thing gets worse. If you can’t depend on the accuracy of what the government puts out, there is a real problem.

    (5) Everybody in this thread is overjoyed that the press has whipped up market-panicking fear over the coronavirus, because they think that will take down Trump.

    That’s my stock portfolio that’s tanking along with everyone else’s…

    (6) Everybody in this thread will be disappointed in a few weeks that not enough people have died from the coronavirus to justify continued panic.

    That’s the sort of comment that gets people banned.

    (7) Trump will be re-elected.

    I am less worried about that than I was when i looked like Bernie was getting the nomination.

    Appalled (1a17de)

  39. (5) Everybody in this thread is overjoyed that the press has whipped up market-panicking fear over the coronavirus, because they think that will take down Trump.

    Please show your work, find 1.

    (6) Everybody in this thread will be disappointed in a few weeks that not enough people have died from the coronavirus to justify continued panic.

    So, how many dead would justify some preparation and planning? Please provide a number that you actually believe.

    Also, why do you keep changing your username? You’re Make America Dumb Again as well, what’s the deal.

    Colonel Klink (Red) (346fcc)

  40. 36. Get some new material. What I observed is correct. If you’re too stupid to comprehend it, I can’t help you.

    Ragspierre (d9bec9)

  41. @40. Raggy Yak; don’t talk back: simply go to the website and tally up the police reports.

    Too complex for you? Then yes, ignorance is bliss.

    Stay happy.

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  42. 41. I’ve been to the website. There isn’t a single occurrence of a gun perpetrating violence. Stay ecstatic.

    Ragspierre (d9bec9)

  43. 42, 41 – in other words, subtract suicides and Thug-On-Thug

    urbanleftbehind (5eecdb)

  44. https://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/ny-coronavirus-cruise-ship-oakland-20200309-fmn4rvn7lrefdiae6qalnuumvy-story.html

    I read someone made an estimate:

    If the mortality rate is 1%, then for every person who dies, 100 people got it. But it takes three weeks till someone dies, so by the time someone dies the number of cases has doubled three times and there are 800 cases.

    Another thing I read. Farr’s Law of Epidemics, which states something like that the rate f decline in a epidemic is a mirror image of the rate of increase

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/2308183

    Farr’s Law of Epidemics, first promulgated in 1840 and resurrected by Brownlee in the early 1900s, states that epidemics tend to rise and fall in a roughly symmetrical pattern that can be approximated by a normal bell-shaped curve.

    The article said this even seemed to apply to AIDS in the United States. It crested in 1988

    (probably ran out of non-IV drug user victims)

    Sammy Finkelman (02a146)

  45. Everybody in this thread is overjoyed that the press has whipped up market-panicking fear over the coronavirus, because…it’s a great buying opportunity. Especially if you’re < 50.

    PTw (894877)

  46. The current policy toward people who have tested positive and people who have been in close contact with people who have tested positive is unsustainable.

    And by the way they really should give anti-virals as a prophylactic.

    Sammy Finkelman (02a146)

  47. “it’s a great buying opportunity. Especially if you’re < 50."

    Are we at the bottom? Are you buying now?

    Davethulhu (fe4242)

  48. (1) Nobody in this comment thread is afraid of the coronavirus.
    (2) Nobody in this thread is wearing a facemask.
    (3) Nobody in this thread is taking precautions beyond what they would for the flu.
    (4) Nobody in this thread believes that the administration isn’t doing a good job of protecting the public.
    (5) Everybody in this thread is overjoyed that the press has whipped up market-panicking fear over the coronavirus, because they think that will take down Trump.
    (6) Everybody in this thread will be disappointed in a few weeks that not enough people have died from the coronavirus to justify continued panic.
    (7) Trump will be re-elected.

    Jenny from Iowa (f28c9c) — 3/9/2020 @ 1:05 pm

    Heh. Coronavirus trolling while playing the everybodynobody game. That’s a new one.

    Dana (4fb37f)

  49. 31. Dave (1bb933) — 3/9/2020 @ 12:43 pm

    Netanyahu is a well-known patsy for irrational left-wing media hype, so I’m sure there’s no good reason for this.

    Israel has somewhat friendly relations with China and China is urging quarantines on everybody while hoping to lift the quarantine on China because they will soon have no more cases except those imported from outside.

    Or that’s going to be their story.

    Sammy Finkelman (02a146)

  50. Tapper: “CNN is now classifying this as a ‘pandemic.'”

    And just which medical team did CNN consult to create this self-imposed label?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XCQxOLE6o5s

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  51. Following Ted Cruz’s lead:

    Politico, the Washington Post, the Daily Beast, and Mother Jones have asked reporters who covered CPAC to self-quarantine and work remotely due to concerns that they may have been exposed to the novel coronavirus. Both the Post and Politico say they’ve taken measures to clean and sanitize public areas. The Post has asked employees who were at CPAC to self-quarantine for seven days. All newsrooms tell Washingtonian they’ve taken such measures out of an abundance of caution.

    Dana (4fb37f)

  52. Trump bringing up Obama administration is a sure giveaway that he is worried about the impact the coronovirus will have on his re-election efforts. He is doing this to distract people, as if they believe that Obama is still the president.

    Dana (4fb37f)

  53. “Following Ted Cruz’s lead:”
    Dana (4fb37f) — 3/9/2020 @ 1:43 pm

    Sorry, no. Not taking his lead at all.

    Cruz said he had contact with the infected individual. These reporters are no more at risk than any other attendee.

    Munroe (dd6b64)

  54. These reporters are no more at risk than any other attendee.

    Nobody said otherwise. Their employers are just taking precautions.

    Ragspierre (d9bec9)

  55. @12:

    Dave, yes that’s what we’re doing at Korean universities — starting the spring semester (already two weeks late) remotely. Everyone scrambling to figure out whether to record online lectures on very short notice or just upload assignments and textbooks for the students to work with for the first couple of weeks.

    It’s a pain, but we’ll survive it. Just as almost all of us will survive this virus that (so the alarmists tell us) cannot possibly be compared to a flu, even though in two years every medical study will probably refer to it as such.

    I observe that the experts quoted in Dana’s post explaining how this is very different from the flu are mostly citing matters of degree or newness, as if its being worse or newer somehow makes it entirely different from a flu epidemic. No, it’s basically a worse (because new) flu. As many people contract the virus and develop antibodies, and as it splits into weaker and stronger strains, and as the weaker strains spread more widely than the stronger ones (due to the fact that stronger strains cause the very ill to be isolated more quickly), its effects (and mortality rate) will likely diminish, as is the norm with new viruses. The “Spanish Flu” was the exception that proves the rule, because historical factors (WWI) worked exactly against the normal trend of weaker strains becoming dominant.

    Yes, of course I could be wrong, as could anyone about anything. But I refuse to let my political disdain for Donald Trump — or the socialist Moon Jae-in over here — color my perception of the facts in front of me. It’s not time for police state measures. And for all Trump’s buffoonery — believe me, I know he’s an idiot — he isn’t wrong to compare this to the standard flu mortality numbers as a way of bringing some context to bear on the media hype.

    Daren Jonescu (ad8e67)

  56. It looks likely that Trump is more right than wrong. This March 8th piece in The New York Post makes a solid case:

    “Coronavirus going to hit its peak and start falling sooner than you think”

    I can’t link without it getting caught up in the spam filter and it is a brief article so I’ll just leave you to find it.

    In summary, efforts to slow down its spread until we reach the warm season where it would naturally die down appear to be working well.

    So, while I wish he spoke more precisely sometimes, the job is getting done.

    Make America Ordered Again (25f2af)

  57. Also, why do you keep changing your username? You’re Make America Dumb Again as well, what’s the deal.

    That’s unfair to MAOA, who is, at least on this issue, rather dubious of Trump. Refer to the comment he made upthread (number 22, at 12:15)

    Kishnevi (ceb37f)

  58. Alright, prove me wrong!
    But

    In summary, efforts to slow down its spread until we reach the warm season where it would naturally die down appear to be working well.

    No one knows if it will die down with warmer weather. It”s just an optimistic hope that it will do so, on the same pattern as the flu. (And you can get the flu during the summer. Much smaller number of cases in summer, but the number is not zero.)

    Kishnevi (ceb37f)

  59. I’m skeptical about our ability to conquer nature, but that said it’s looking this virus is not quite as deadly as originally feared and time is on our side in the northern hemisphere with the seasons. Trump should speak with less certainty though. However, that’s not his nature: he’s a salesman, promoter, negotiator, entertainer, and politician, not a scientist or public health official.

    The actual public health official seem to be doing a credible job, by and large.

    Make America Ordered Again (25f2af)

  60. Kishnevi, it’s an educated guess based on similar respiratory system affecting viruses. You’ll note it’s not spreading greatly with commensurate lethal cases in currently warm parts of the world.

    Make America Ordered Again (25f2af)

  61. Kishnevi, this represents a change in my position. I originally tended toward more alarm and thus dissatisfaction with Trump’s minimalizing. However, it does look like, perhaps by pure coincidence, he’s more right about it, in the main, than I was.

    I believe in being prudent and considering worst case scenarios. Fortunately, it doesn’t look like we’re in a worst case scenario.

    P.S. Trump still was wrong when he claimed that it was contained.

    Make America Ordered Again (25f2af)

  62. Coronavirus going to hit its peak and start falling sooner than you think

    Yeah, no. It’s an opinion piece (and that’s all it is) by a guy who has no science background at all.

    So you roll with anything positive you can scrape together. I’ll keep looking under the hood.

    Ragspierre (d9bec9)

  63. Trump should speak with less certainty though. However, that’s not his nature: he’s a salesman, promoter, negotiator, entertainer, and politician, not a scientist or public health official.

    By nature he is a lying, megalomaniacal thug. He honestly believes he’s a scientist, public health official and Wall St. maven.

    Ragspierre (d9bec9)

  64. Damn, he’s onto us Kevin M:

    Trump reportedly told aides he fears journalists will purposefully try to infect him with coronavirus on Air Force One

    President Trump puts on a brave face when talking about the novel coronavirus, COVID-19, but things are reportedly pretty different behind closed doors.

    Vanity Fair reports that Trump — a self-professed germaphobe — is “melting down over this.” Perhaps not shockingly, he’s focused on the media, in particular, one person close to the White House said. That reportedly includes him telling aides last week that he was concerned journalists would purposefully contract COVID-19 in an attempt to infect him on Air Force One.

    Another source painted an image more in line with Trump’s public reaction to the virus, as well, telling Vanity Fair he reportedly wants the Justice Department to “open an investigation of the media for market manipulation” as he tries to stave off, or at least provide a more optimistic outlook for, the plummeting stock market.

    The White House did not respond to Vanity Fair’s request for comment.

    Dave (1bb933)

  65. MAOA…fair enough. In fact I tend to agree with everything you say in comment 61.

    OTOH, three cases have been confirmed in my county. None of the three had travelled recently, so it’s “community contact”.

    Kishnevi (ceb37f)

  66. GOP Rep. Matt Gaetz self-quarantines for coronavirus exposure just 1 hour after flying with Trump

    Reps. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) and Doug Collins (R-Ga.) will undertake precautionary recommendations from their doctors to isolate themselves until the 14-day incubation period for the virus expires in a few days. Neither congressman is experiencing symptoms. They were both, however, in close contact with President Trump recently, and Gaetz wasn’t informed about his interaction with the CPAC attendee until he was midway through a flight on Air Force One.

    Gaetz mocked the coronavirus last week by wearing a gas mask on the House floor.

    Dave (1bb933)

  67. Gaetz IS a virus…!!!

    Ragspierre (d9bec9)

  68. The worst cases of the flu are just as bad as this virus, since the common outcome is death. WHO says that 291,000 to 646,000 deaths are typical numbers for a flu season worldwide, and the same groups are most vulnerable.

    Dr Fauci is relying on dubious data when he states the mortality rates. We have some idea of flu cases from history, and can estimate the numbers fairly accurately (1 billion per year). We have no idea with this thing, but given the limited testing and typical home treatment of mild flu-like illnesses, as well as the degree of spread, the number of cases must be at least an order of magnitude over the official “proven” cases that result from spot testing.

    Now that we have fairly honest medical establishments doing widespread testing we will find out a LOT in the next few weeks. I’m pretty sure that the 2-3% number is wildly high. I wonder how long it will take them to fess up on that.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  69. Johns Hopkins on comparing flu to Covid-19.

    https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/health/conditions-and-diseases/coronavirus/coronavirus-disease-2019-vs-the-flu

    The basic differences are 1) no vaccine, 2) lack of experience, and 3) the mortality rate MAY be higher than most strains of the flu (and they are full weasel on that).

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  70. Damn, he’s onto us Kevin M

    Why does he think all those virus carriers went to CPAC? You get 1000 conservatives in a room, and some of them will think Trump’s an imbecile.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  71. By this time next month, the virus will have spread to every community and we will know just how bad it is. Until then it’s just fear, uncertainty and doubt. And Trump tweeting.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  72. We all know that if Trump was going around talking UP the virus, then everyone criticizing him for “Not taking it seriously” would be criticizing him for “Being hysterical and creating panic”.

    The only consistency the never trumpers and Democrats in the media have shown for the last 4 years is there hatred for Trump. He ALWAYS wrong -no matter what. So this Katrina gas-lighting won’t work.

    rcocean (1a839e)

  73. Nothing is more hilarious, then the personal air of superiority toward Trump shown by members of the chattering classes. Why, he’s such a “Clown”. Such a “Buffoon”. Why, he’s just not a Gentleman, my dear.

    He’s President of the United States, is a billionaire, has beautiful children and a great wife. He can talk for hours – without a script – and draws crowds of thousands. And probably will get re-elected.

    But every journalist, academic, lawyer, and pundit thinks he’s so much smarter. LOL!

    rcocean (1a839e)

  74. I’m in NYC, kishnevi. I’d be shocked if there wasn’t current local transmission of COVID-19.

    I factored that in with my prior comments. It’s spreading, yes, and probably won’t be as bad as many thought it would.

    Make America Ordered Again (25f2af)

  75. We all know that if Trump was…

    “We all” know no such thing. What could be said with confidence is that if Duh Donald would just STFU for…say three days…he’d be well advised. The nation would be better off. But he might explode…

    Ragspierre (d9bec9)

  76. Allan Smith
    @akarl_smith

    CDC says everyone over 60 should be staying at home as much as possible.

    This is happening in the backdrop of a presidential campaign involving three guys over the age of 73

    2020 gonna be off the hook!
    _

    harkin (b64479)

  77. Are we at the bottom? Are you buying now?

    The fool thinks he will know the bottom when it gets there. The value investor takes advantage of a panic to buy where he has bought in the past. He may not get the bottom but he will make money. Never be greedy. It’s bad policy all around. Made good money in 2008 panic. And yes, I am buying (a little) now. Looking at semi-retirement in a couple months. If I hadn’t had to put a new roof on the house last month, which I need to pay for by August, I’d put more in.

    PTw (8c41bd)

  78. No one knows if it will die down with warmer weather. It”s just an optimistic hope that it will do so, on the same pattern as the flu. (And you can get the flu during the summer. Much smaller number of cases in summer, but the number is not zero.)

    It’s true that no one knows whether it will die down in warmer weather. But there is the possibility that it won’t, given that the weather in the Phillipines for the month of March has been in the 80’s & 90’s, and yet the number of Phillipinose infected has doubled during March.

    Dana (4fb37f)

  79. Vividly recall standing at the window of my Midtown office back in October, 1987, around lunch time, listening to WCBS Newsradio88, looking down 6th Avenue toward Lower Manhattan in October, 1987 and literally watching ‘panic’ move uptown from Wall Street as the Reagan market collapsed. This was before cells were commonplace so it was mostly word of mouth, yuppies wired to their Walkman radios and people scurrying to pay phone locations. You could actually see it move up the street– then into the buildings, up floor by floor, as people began to buzz, walk a little faster– then race to phones and clicked on to their Macs. By closing bell commuters were fixed with furrowed brows as they headed home– and it was only Monday.

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  80. Please don’t let the numbers being thrown around in the media get dancing in your head.

    I’m not changing my schedule or shopping habits or vacation plans, Daren, and I’m in a county with 31 confirmed cases and 1 death. I played basketball at the Y today and then steam saunaed, hot tubbed and showered, and then went on to Costco.

    Paul Montagu (d6528e)

  81. I’m not changing my schedule or shopping habits or vacation plans, Daren, and I’m in a county with 31 confirmed cases and 1 death.

    I’m changing vacation plans. We were going to go on a cruise in Europe with my mom, who is 81. Now we are not.

    Patterico (115b1f)

  82. There is no indication that the CDC has determined how to minimize the R0 of covid-19 within our borders. While this alone is not a cause for panic, it sure does make me a little nervous to think that Donald J. “Stable Genius” Trump is at the helm of the federal government that can’t collectively come up with a halfways decent quarantine scheme despite all the so-called experts working therein.

    Gryph (08c844)

  83. Same thing with the daughter’s Spring Break. Thankfully, United will cancel the tickets with no penalty.

    nk (1d9030)

  84. Now we are not.

    Yah, that’s a pretty easy decision.

    Sorry you’ll have to miss the cruise!

    Dave (1bb933)

  85. Washington, Stanford, USC and Columbia have already suspended some face-to-face classes.

    My daughter is now at Rice (you might remember she started last year at UCSB but she transferred). They have a confirmed case, cancelled classes this week, and are talking about the possibility of online classes next semester.

    Patterico (115b1f)

  86. UC Berkeley also suspended in-person classes today. Resume after spring break.

    Dana (4fb37f)

  87. Thankfully, United will cancel the tickets with no penalty.

    Speaking of airlines, several are flying empty flights to, from, and within Europe so they don’t lose their airport takeoff and landing slots. Search “ghost flights” online for more.

    That’s nuts.

    Make America Ordered Again (23f793)

  88. 71. By this time next month, the virus will have spread to every community and we will know just how bad it is. Until then it’s just fear, uncertainty and doubt. And Trump tweeting.

    It’s in very community already,on every TeeVee news channel, 24/7! Are you scared yet?!?! 😉

    “… there’ll be a thousand mutations! Andromeda will spread everywhere! They’ll never be rid of it!” – Dr. Jeremy Stone [Arthur Hill] ‘The Andromeda Strain’ 1971

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  89. I imagine the courts will become areas of concern too, since like classrooms they are gathering places for a lot of people in a tight space.

    Harder to conduct trials online, though…

    Dave (1bb933)

  90. 89. Courts? How about prisons?

    Gryph (08c844)

  91. I imagine the courts will become areas of concern too, since like classrooms they are gathering places for a lot of people in a tight space.

    Harder to conduct trials online, though…

    Courts already suspended jury trials and grand juries in at least parts of the Seattle/Tacoma court system. Jails are a prime incubating spot for this disease, followed quickly by courts.

    Patterico (115b1f)

  92. In a national emergency like this, President Trump should suspend the Constitution and set up remote military tribunals to try cases and pass tough sentences. Also, quarantine prison islands should be provisioned.

    I am kidding.

    Make America Ordered Again (23f793)

  93. It’s interesting about colleges. My old school is conducting classes as scheduled, but also using a few to test online delivery methods. Given the STEM nature of the college, this should be doable; internal bandwidth is probably astounding.

    They are also expecting many students to remain on campus during spring break, and are setting up to feed and otherwise support them.

    They are, however, canceling several events that bring many travelers onto campus, as well as tours or similar. They have not yet canceled alumni weekend, but they probably will. I think they are waiting until they see how things break in the next week or two.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  94. We were going to go on a cruise in Europe with my mom, who is 81.

    I don’t blame you, P, given the age of your mom and that she’ll be in close quarters on a cruise.

    Paul Montagu (d6528e)

  95. Also, quarantine prison islands should be provisioned.

    Early in the AIDS crisis, a Quarantine initiative qualified for the California ballot. It would have mandated permanent quarantine for those testing HIV-positive. It failed with 2/3rds against, but there WAS 1/3rd in favor.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  96. So, I had lunch at Sweet Tomatoes today (a soup and salad bar restaurant). For some reason there were lots of old folks. Oh, wait, I’m old folks now, too. They wanted everyone to use the hand sanitizers, fwiw.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  97. Also from my college, regarding travel:

    All College-sponsored travel, both domestic and international, has been canceled indefinitely, including clinic, research and conference travel.

    We are not currently asking you to curtail travel for personal reasons, but please be advised that if you are exposed to COVID-19, or if you end up in a location of particular concern, you will be required to make your own arrangements to complete the CDC-recommended 14-day period of self-quarantine before returning to campus. We encourage students who decide to leave for spring break to consider bringing essential items with them in case their return to campus is delayed.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  98. I cannot think of doing anything as foolhardy as going to a buffet of any kind. I am going to short all the buffet stocks.

    felipe (023cc9)

  99. Prisons are a big concern:

    More than two dozen people sharing a single toilet. Bedsheets and clothes that haven’t been washed in over a week. A ban on hand sanitizer. A dearth of soap, hot water, and medical care.

    As more cases of COVID-19 are confirmed throughout the city, defense attorneys, criminal justice advocates and health experts are raising the alarm about the likelihood of the outbreak hitting incarcerated populations.

    And yet, prisoners will be making hand sanitizer for NYC, if it comes to that:

    If New York City has a plague year, there’s a plan for its prisoners—not to protect them from infection in their tight quarters, but to use convicts to make New York State branded hand sanitizers and, if it comes to that, prisoners at Rikers to bury the dead.

    Gov. Andrew Cuomo Monday, citing concerns about profiteers selling overpriced hand sanitizer, announced that CorCraft, a company that uses New York State prison labor paid between 16¢ and $1.14 an hour, would be making 100,000 gallons a week of NY-branded hand sanitizer

    Dana (4fb37f)

  100. @87. Not really. Even w/a reduced flight schedule, aircraft have to be trafficked; flown to destinations and repositioned for other flight routes they’re scheduled to fly– or scheduled t e rotated out of service for routine maintenance.

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  101. NYC has Swinburne Island. I was looking at it today, joking that maybe it will be used for quarantine again!

    But not so much joking.

    Make America Ordered Again (23f793)

  102. Remember the initial symptoms we are supposed to watch for — fever and a dry cough? Maybe not:

    Houston’s Memorial Hermann Hospital has asked 11 workers to self-quarantine for the next two weeks after learning that a patient who was treated for gastrointestinal pain had been on a cruise ship in Egypt and later tested positive for the new coronavirus.

    Doctors at Memorial Hermann said Saturday that the patient hadn’t initially been screened for COVID-19 and the patient was released from a Memorial Hermann medical facility about a week ago. They declined to identify the location of the clinic or hospital, citing privacy concerns.

    “The virus threw us a curve,” said Dr. David Callender, president and CEO of Memorial Hermann Health System.

    At the time, Egypt wasn’t identified as a concern for travelers, and gastrointestinal symptoms such as diarrhea hadn’t yet been noted as a potential sign of the disease, hospital officials said Saturday at a press conference.

    DRJ (15874d)

  103. NYC has Swinburne Island.

    NYC also has Trump Tower.

    And a mayor with no qualms about invoking eminent domain…

    🙂

    Dave (1bb933)

  104. I cannot think of doing anything as foolhardy as going to a buffet of any kind. I am going to short all the buffet stocks.

    Well, there’s the buffet on some cruise ship off Italy.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  105. Courts already suspended jury trials and grand juries in at least parts of the Seattle/Tacoma court system.

    Thanks, I hadn’t seen any mention of that.

    But crime, presumably, has not been suspended so I wonder how long such measures are sustainable.

    Dave (1bb933)

  106. R.I.P. Max von Sydow, actor (and a damn good one)

    Icy (6abb50)

  107. Early in the AIDS crisis, a Quarantine initiative qualified for the California ballot. It would have mandated permanent quarantine for those testing HIV-positive. It failed with 2/3rds against, but there WAS 1/3rd in favor.

    I have always suspected that’s how we got Anthony Kennedy. In addition to SCOTUS, he was also the super-judge of the Ninth Circuit (which includes California for you from Rio Linda). Reagan wanted to make sure that his Hollywood friends would not be locked up.

    nk (1d9030)

  108. Thanks for the laugh, Felipe.

    mg (8cbc69)

  109. Donald J. Trump
    @realDonaldTrump
    1h
    Wow!
    @foxandfriends blew away the competition of Morning Joke (which did very poorly) on MSDNC (Another Comcast sleaze production), and @CNN’s New Day, in the Morning Television Ratings. A total blowout, but that’s what you get when you treat “Trump” fairly!

    mr. president trump, who enjoys poetry readings in small cafes, candlelit evenings at home, and quiet walks in the park, knows what is important in a coronavirus pandemic

    he has a special talent that way

    unmatched by any other 42nd street bone spur sufferer

    nk (1d9030)

  110. The office of the Director of National Intelligence (DNI) was scheduled to deliver the Worldwide Threat Assessment to the House Intelligence Committee on Feb. 12 and the hearing has not been rescheduled, according to staffers and members of the House and Senate intelligence committees. The DNI’s office declined requests for a comment on the status of the report. Democratic staffers say they do not expect the report to be released any time soon.

    The final draft of the report remains classified but the two officials who have read it say it contains warnings similar to those in the last installment, which was published on January 29, 2019. The 2019 report warns on page 29 that, “The United States will remain vulnerable to the next flu pandemic or large-scale outbreak of a contagious disease that could lead to massive rates of death and disability, severely affect the world economy, strain international resources, and increase calls on the United States for support.”–Time

    Now, that’s from Time, so a grain of salt is in order. But it is certainly plausible and in character with this regime.

    Ragspierre (d9bec9)

  111. It’s not the comment, it’s me?!?

    nk (1d9030)

  112. Just testing to see if I am moderated on this thread.

    mg (8cbc69)

  113. Testing.

    nk (1d9030)

  114. Donald J. Trump
    @realDonaldTrump
    1h
    Wow!
    @foxandfriends blew away the competition of Morning Joke (which did very poorly) on MSDNC (Another Comcast sleaze production), and @CNN’s New Day, in the Morning Television Ratings. A total blowout, but that’s what you get when you treat “Trump” fairly!

    mr. president trump, who enjoys poetry readings in small cafes, candlelit evenings at home, and quiet walks in the park, knows what is important in a coronavirus pandemic

    he has a special talent that way

    unmatched by any other 42nd street bone spur sufferer

    nk (1d9030)

  115. It works, although my last on the Italy thread, about New York City firemen being relieved of responsibility for responding to calls of the second highest priority for patients with fever, coughing, difficulty breathing or even those who are unconscious, got put into ,odertion, even though it had only one link. I don’t know what triggered it.

    Sammy Finkelman (9570ad)

  116. Testing again

    Sammy Finkelman (9570ad)

  117. The wife and 3 year old chiod of a Frisco man diagnosed with coronavirus (after traveling to California) have also been infected. The 3 year old may be the youngest American victim.

    DRJ (15874d)

  118. So since we’re playing Repeat The Comments today, thought I’d post this here as well,

    So here’s a thing, and take it with a grain of salt…I have a co-worker who has a friend out in Seattle who *thinks* she may have COVID-19. She has had very mild flu-like symptoms but the one thing that she is saying differs from past flu experience is a bit of shortness of breath going up stairs and such. She’s not bothering to get tested because she really doesn’t feel all that bad. She’s had it a week now, though.

    PTw (894877)

  119. How one woman in New York had difficulty getting a coronovirus test (doctors wouldn’t order one) and how when they thought she might have tested positive they were ready to immediately take stringent protective measures, but then cancelled it when it turned out to be some kind of a false alarm, and how she finally got tested after the hospital was informed an Op-ed article was going to be published in the New York Times.

    It was negative. She should have known. Gastorintestinal symptoms are not associated with coronavirus.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/09/opinion/coronavirus-testing-new-york.html

    She came back and said she would take two swabs — one would be tested for flu and another virus. If those tests came back negative, the other swab would be tested for Covid-19, she said. It was supposed to take about 45 minutes to get the results of the first test.

    Three hours later, when I still hadn’t received the results, I stepped out of my room wearing my mask to ask for information. “Get back in your room, Ms. Shulman,” called one of the staff at the desk. I paused. “Ms. Shulman, get back in your room now!” she said. I surmised that the flu panel was negative and they were assuming I had the coronavirus.

    When the doctor gave me those results, she hovered by the door in her mask, gloves and gown without even entering the room.

    “You are officially under quarantine,” she said. The other swab would go to the C.D.C. for testing.

    She left and returned, after another phone call. This time, she walked into my room and sat on a chair opposite me without even putting on her protective gown. My quarantine had been lifted.

    The reluctance of the doctors and their waiting for the tests and then immediate quarantine if it is positive reminds me of this Biblical passage:

    https://www.mechon-mamre.org/p/pt/pt0314.htm

    לד כִּי תָבֹאוּ אֶל-אֶרֶץ כְּנַעַן, אֲשֶׁר אֲנִי נֹתֵן לָכֶם לַאֲחֻזָּה; וְנָתַתִּי נֶגַע צָרַעַת, בְּבֵית אֶרֶץ אֲחֻזַּתְכֶם. 34 When ye are come into the land of Canaan, which I give to you for a possession, and I put the plague of leprosy in a house of the land of your possession;
    לה וּבָא אֲשֶׁר-לוֹ הַבַּיִת, וְהִגִּיד לַכֹּהֵן לֵאמֹר: כְּנֶגַע, נִרְאָה לִי בַּבָּיִת. 35 then he that owneth the house shall come and tell the priest, saying: ‘There seemeth to me to be as it were a plague in the house.’
    לו וְצִוָּה הַכֹּהֵן וּפִנּוּ אֶת-הַבַּיִת, בְּטֶרֶם יָבֹא הַכֹּהֵן לִרְאוֹת אֶת-הַנֶּגַע, וְלֹא יִטְמָא, כָּל-אֲשֶׁר בַּבָּיִת; וְאַחַר כֵּן יָבֹא הַכֹּהֵן, לִרְאוֹת אֶת-הַבָּיִת. 36 And the priest shall command that they empty the house, before the priest go in to see the plague, that all that is in the house be not made unclean; and afterward the priest shall go in to see the house.

    Sammy Finkelman (9570ad)


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