Patterico's Pontifications

2/12/2020

Will Nevada Be a Debacle on Par with Iowa?

Filed under: General — Patterico @ 7:43 am



A friend of mine pointed this out: Nevada has been making last-minute changes to its caucus procedures in reaction to Iowa. The planning does not sound great:

The Nevada State Democratic Party will use scannable paper ballots during its crucial upcoming caucus in a bid to avoid a repeat of Iowa’s tech-troubled presidential nominating contest.

A memo sent to campaigns on Monday confirms early voters will fill out paper ballots that will later be sent to party-run “processing hubs” for scanning and storage.

Organizers of Nevada’s closely watched third-in-the-nation nominating contest last week ditched the cell phone app software widely blamed for Iowa’s vote-reporting fiasco.

But officials aren’t completely abandoning Caucus Day technology.

A copy of the memo obtained by the Reno Gazette Journal says caucusgoers will check in at their voting precinct on a “PDF voter roll” downloaded to party-purchased iPads.

Voters will then be handed a card with a “voter PIN” number needed to correctly fill out a Google Form that will help “track participants and streamline data collection.” Officials said paper sign-in sheets will be available if needed.

Google Forms, scantrons, and voter PINs. What could possibli go wrong?

49 Responses to “Will Nevada Be a Debacle on Par with Iowa?”

  1. Keep an eye on this story for Nevada. Sanders has been doing pretty well with Hispanics, and the Culinary Union’s lack of support (due to Medicare for All) may turn into a big deal.

    https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/in-new-flyer-culinary-union-warns-members-sanders-would-end-their-health-care-if-elected-president

    There are a lot of “Sanders as frontrunner” stories today. But Mayor Pete has more total delegates from Iowa and New Hampshire. Is there a Bernie caucus in America’s newsrooms? Say it isn’t so.

    Appalled (1a17de)

  2. “early voters” caucusing?

    noel (4d3313)

  3. Ted Downing
    @TedDowning
    ·
    NYT reports the Iowa caucus fiasco noted that “Melissa Watson, the state party’s chief financial officer, who was in charge of the boiler room, did not know how to operate a Google spreadsheet application used to input data.”.. A CFO who doesn’t use spreadsheets!!

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/09/us/politics/iowa-democratic-caucuses.html#click=https://t.co/JNSPRFJFzN
    _

    They tried blaming Russia and 4Chan Trumpbots but only the truly delusional like David Frum tried to work it.
    _

    harkin (b64479)

  4. Um… it’s fine trying something different, but I hope each precinct would have staff perform “backup counts” using simple excel spreadsheets.

    whembly (fd57f6)

  5. Appalled (1a17de) — 2/12/2020 @ 8:00 am

    Is there a Bernie caucus in America’s newsrooms? Say it isn’t so.

    I don’t think they’re in favor of Bernie. I think this is more like them standing at the beach and saying “hey, I wonder why the water is rushing out so fast”.

    frosty (f27e97)

  6. What are the odds?

    mg (8cbc69)

  7. “ I don’t think they’re in favor of Bernie.”

    Nor do I. They want two main things:

    1) oust Trump

    2) maintain status quo for Dem, Deep State and media elites.

    IMO right now they do not see a Bernie nomination as guaranteeing either but rather a good chance for the opposite of both.

    harkin (b64479)

  8. Who will end up participating in the Nevada caucus? Two more are on the way out, in my opinion. Warren looked defeated last night. She was. And Biden has come in 4th and 5th in the first two states despite being the best known. If that isn’t imploding, what is?

    They have no money and no way now to raise it. Both are done.

    noel (4d3313)

  9. How the heck do you run any kind of “caucus” with early “voting” ?

    pouncer (df6448)

  10. 3. NYT reports the Iowa caucus fiasco noted that “Melissa Watson, the state party’s chief financial officer, who was in charge of the boiler room, did not know how to operate a Google spreadsheet application used to input data.”.. A CFO who doesn’t use spreadsheets!!

    She maybe knew Lotus 12-3 and Microsoft Excel but not the Android smartphone operating system, and nobody checked. She was just the boss; others knew how to use the app and the operating system, so that didn’t stop them but it meant she couldn’t help.

    That’s not the worst:

    All the people in Iowa Democratic election headquarters had to use two-factor authentication to log in and enter into the official tabulation those results that did not come in via the app but were phoned in instead – and, by the way, they only had this back-up because of the idea there might be a natural disaster or a terror attack on caucus day – but they also were told not to bring cellphones into there!

    So they resorted to passing around a spare iPad. iPads had not been banned from the boiler room.

    Sammy Finkelman (8e96a4)

  11. DNC 101: snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  12. There was also miscoding in part of Des Moines, with the code for Bernie Sanders being mistakenly translated as Deval Patrick. That part was caught and correcting rather early.

    Sammy Finkelman (8e96a4)

  13. Bernie wins nevada caucus as corporate establishment democrats split between booty, kloby and whats left of biden. (good picture of biden at ace of spades hq) They are very pro trump over there.

    asset (44a454)

  14. David Wright
    @DavidWright_7

    Elizabeth Warren’s campaign canceled over $500,000 in South Carolina ad reservations that were set to begin this week; also canceled about $60,000 in Nevada ad reservations set for next week, per @Kantar_Media data
    __ _

    Teamster412
    @teamster412
    ·
    She’s moving ads to dif States. It’s a delegate math game. She is 2nd in money raised and 1st in least spent. She’ll be in until well after super Tuesday.
    __ _

    Bart Simpin’
    @Keplonopin
    ·
    If she stays in Super Tuesday she will be embarrassed in her home state. She will be done soon.
    __ _

    Peter Greenberger
    @pgreenberger
    ·
    Please pour one out for the sales reps 🍺
    __ _

    NavyTim
    @ChiefNavyTim
    ·
    Good thing she got the $3 last night

    _

    harkin (b64479)

  15. Since Nevada is another caucus state, all of the losing candidates will downplay it and say that South Carolina is really where it is at. It’s no accident that Slow Joe flew immediately to SC from NH instead of heading to Nevada.

    JVW (54fd0b)

  16. In harkin’s collection of tweets above, the last one makes reference to an “inspirational” story that Lieawatha is peddling about how a female college student approached her and said that she had just checked her bank account and discovered that she was down to her last six dollars, but she had still given three of them to the Warren campaign because she believes so strongly in Fauxcahontas’s message. Now this story is almost certainly not true, one coming entirely from Chief Bunkum and Hokum’s vivid imagination, but she is getting hammered for it on twitter by people who point out how unseemly it is for a millionaire candidate to take half of a college kid’s cash-on-hand to run her ridiculous campaign. It’s yet another chapter in the book on why this is the most insipid Presidential campaign ever run.

    JVW (54fd0b)

  17. National Public Radio delegate tracker:

    https://www.npr.org/2020/02/10/799979293/how-many-delegates-do-the-2020-presidential-democratic-candidates-have

    At the moment: (probable committed on the first ballot delegates if they stay in the race)

    Pete Buttigieg: 22 (13 from Iowa, 9 from New Hampshire)
    Bernie Sanders: 21 (12 from Iowa, 9 from New Hampshire)
    Elizabeth Warren: 8 (all from Iowa)
    Amy Klobuchar: 7 (1 from Iowa, 6 from New Hampshire)
    Joe Biden: 6 (all from Iowa)

    Total: 64 (Mullings had 65. There might be one to be determined)

    Total to be chosen: 3,979. Total needed to win: 1,990.

    Sammy Finkelman (02a146)

  18. The kid had already donated the money before she spoke to Warren, so saying “Warren took half her cash” is kind of silly, isn’t it?

    Dave (1bb933)

  19. 17. At 54 seconds into the video. Elizabeth Warren says she was told this by one of the people in her “selfie” line (a line for people to stand in to get their picture taken with Elizabeth Warren, so they will vote for her because they’d like to have picture of themselves with a president.)

    Sammy Finkelman (02a146)

  20. Giving the kid her money back might not even be legal without paperwork.

    Also, is there really much difference between having $6 to your name, and having $3 to your name?

    LOL.

    Dave (1bb933)

  21. I suppose Gryph would say there are 30 dimes worth of difference…

    Dave (1bb933)

  22. The kid had already donated the money before she spoke to Warren, so saying “Warren took half her cash” is kind of silly, isn’t it?

    Yeah, but don’t brag about it for Heaven’s sake. And Lieawatha could easily reach into her pocket, give the kid $50 or even $100, and tell the kid that instead of taking her money she wants her to find three friends and talk them into voting for her.

    But again, I’m sure this story is bullshit anyway, so the real question is why would Elizabeth Warren make something like this up and think it reflects positively upon her campaign?

    JVW (54fd0b)

  23. “ The kid had already donated the money before she spoke to Warren, so saying “Warren took half her cash” is kind of silly, isn’t it?”

    What’s silly (even despicable) is Warren using the story to imply it was a good thing and keep it coming.

    But then, for someone with her history of gaming the system to deny advancement to actual Native Americans, it was probably just business as usual.

    harkin (b64479)

  24. I’ll tell you a story about that. Years and years ago in my college days I dated a woman who ended up working for Ralph Nader’s PIRG group as a canvasser. I saw her one night (we had stopped dating by then) and she was excitedly, and somewhat drunkenly, telling me about how she and her canvassing partner had visited a home earlier that evening headed by a single mom with a couple of kids. They told her about all of the great things that MassPIRG was doing and ended up asking her if she could make a donation. The woman explained that she was currently unemployed and living on public assistance, and she only had about $50 left for the rest of the week until her next relief check arrived. They got up to go and said goodbye, but as they were going out the door the woman stopped them, fished into her purse and pulled out a $20 bill which she gave them, telling them that they were doing such great work that she just had to contribute.

    I, even then being a cynical and grumpy right-winger, was astounded. I said, “Wait a minute: this woman is down to her last $50 and you take 40 percent of it on the vague promise that you’ll give her free health care and a larger welfare check? If anything, you guys should have given her some of the money that you raised to tide her over until her next check comes.” Needless to say, my ex-girlfriend didn’t appreciate my attempted lesson in charity and altruism.

    But I see Elizabeth Warren acting a lot like my ex-girlfriend in this scenario. In fact, I would be interested in knowing if she supports Lieawatha or Comrade Bernard this year, or if she is now some well-heeled corporate lawyer and secretly supports Donald Trump.

    JVW (54fd0b)

  25. Yeah, but don’t brag about it for Heaven’s sake. And Lieawatha could easily reach into her pocket, give the kid $50 or even $100, and tell the kid that instead of taking her money she wants her to find three friends and talk them into voting for her.

    Ah yes, I can see it now:

    Lieawatha Caught Red-handed in Student Vote-Buying Scheme
    Filed under: Fauxcahontas – JVW @ 8:22 am

    [guest post by JVW]

    :)

    Dave (1bb933)

  26. Nah, I would consider it the modern update on Rockerfellerian dimes. (Or was that Carnegie?)

    In any case, here is some solid common sense on the matter:

    As someone whose career is in politics, hear me here:If giving your money to a PERSON SEEKING TO RUN YOUR GOVERNMENT creates or compounds financial danger for you or your family, you really need to re-evaluate the role that politics plays in your life. This is not healthy. https://t.co/vXOYZUk9Z6— Ellen Carmichael (@ellencarmichael) February 12, 2020

    JVW (54fd0b)

  27. Megan Messerly
    @meganmesserly
    ·
    NEW: @Culinary226 releases a statement criticizing Sanders supporters for having “viciously attacked the Culinary Union … simply because our union has provided facts on what certain healthcare proposals might do to take away the system of care we have built over 8 decades.”

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EQm3fUPWsAc1roo?format=png&name=900×900
    _

    harkin (b64479)

  28. Will Nevada Be a Debacle on Par with Iowa?

    I’m kind of hoping so. I just love love love watching libwits eat their own.

    Gryph (08c844)

  29. 25. Warren? Sanders? Trump? Three peas in a pod if you ask me. The one thing you can absolutely take to the bank is that the winner of the 2020 elections will be only too happy to run the government that steals from me us at gunpoint.

    Gryph (08c844)

  30. 28

    Megan Messerly
    @meganmesserly
    ·
    NEW: @Culinary226 releases a statement criticizing Sanders supporters for having “viciously attacked the Culinary Union … simply because our union has provided facts on what certain healthcare proposals might do to take away the system of care we have built over 8 decades.”

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EQm3fUPWsAc1roo?format=png&name=900×900
    _

    harkin (b64479) — 2/12/2020 @ 3:14 pm

    The BernieBros stepped on their collective wangs here…

    This Nevada Caucus is going to be a riot…eh?

    Popcorn time!

    whembly (c30c83)

  31. 31. My concern for Trump’s utter lack of character is fading beneath my utter delight at what a total cluster**** the modern Democrat party has become.

    Gryph (08c844)

  32. I think Sanders will still do really well in Nevada because it is a caucus, which instead of rewarding the ability to get the casual voter to the polls actually rewards those who have the most intense followers who will spend the entire evening in a hotel ballroom or a high school gymnasium to support their candidate. There’s a reason that Slow Joe and apparently Lieawatha are downplaying Nevada, and it’s because they know their supporters lack the passion of Bernie Bros and even Petey’s People.

    JVW (54fd0b)

  33. JVW @27. It was John D. Rockefeller Sr. who gave away a dime to every person he met, and liked to giive them to children. A dime in, say 1922, was worth what almost $1.50 is today.

    https://wealthymatters.com/2012/06/02/john-d-rockefeller-the-man-who-gave-away-shiny-new-dimes

    According to Paul de Kruif, his doctors put him on a calorie restriction diet; and he lived to be 97 years old (July 8, 1839 – May 23, 1937), but his grandson, Nelson Rockefeller, in 1974, thought it was his natural constitution. He lived to be only 70. (July 8, 1908 – January 26, 1979)

    John D. Rockefeller got so old that when, in 1936, at the Republican National convention, adman Bruce Barton for PR wanted to arrange an interview with the “oldest Republican” he had to abandon the idea when the oldest Republican attending the convention turned out to be John D. Rockefeller I!

    https://www.atlasobscura.com/articles/an-exclusive-look-at-the-leaked-pr-agenda-of-the-1936-republican-national-convention

    (this site says he wanted to find the oldest Republican in he country and take him to the convention, but I read another story. The card in the Wisconsin Historical Society Archives, Bruce Barton Paper, doesn’t say in the country, and how could it be in the country?

    Sammy Finkelman (8e96a4)

  34. 32

    31. My concern for Trump’s utter lack of character is fading beneath my utter delight at what a total cluster**** the modern Democrat party has become.

    Gryph (08c844) — 2/12/2020 @ 4:38 pm

    I didn’t think it would be possible… but, I totally think we’re headed to a Contested Convention.

    I just realized that these delegates are divvied up proportionally. That’s vastly different than the ‘Winner’s Take All’ allocations in the past.

    So, long as much of the Clown Car show remains in the race, I don’t see how Bernie or Biden get the necessary delegate majority (I think it’s 1990 delegates).

    O

    whembly (c30c83)

  35. Total to be chosen: 3,979. Total needed to win: 1,990.

    Sammy Finkelman (02a146) — 2/12/2020 @ 1:19 pm

    Sammy gets to the heart of the matter. Even after Nevada, it’s still margin of error.

    Pete Buttigieg: 22 (13 from Iowa, 9 from New Hampshire)

    22/3,979 = 0.005529 = 0.06%. Yup. Fabulous!

    nk (1d9030)

  36. Thanks Sammy. Fun info.

    JVW (54fd0b)

  37. …weird, didn’t mean to post it.

    I wanted to end my last post with my HOPE that a Contested Convention does occur and that the Democrats lose so badly that future candidates would be waaaaay more moderate than the current crops of lefties.

    whembly (c30c83)

  38. I live in Nevada, but I am registered to the Libertarian Party, so I don’t get to participate in the free-for-all Democratic caucus.

    I will be grateful when it’s over, because I have grown tired of the commercials — especially Tom Steyer, who seems to be in every bloc of commercials on every station at all times of the day.

    Chuck Bartowski (6fff93)

  39. whembly (c30c83) — 2/12/2020 @ 4:52 pm

    hat’s vastly different than the ‘Winner’s Take All’ allocations in the past.

    They used to go by state law – in 1968 California was a”winner-take-all” primary and Robert F. Kennedy won it. His deegates wen to the convention. But later, in 1972, the Supreme Court ruled that a political party was a private association and states cold not make rules for ho could be delegates, and cold even disregard an election altogether, as they did with the McGovern delegation headed by Jesse Jackson displacing the one elected in 1972 (on the gronds it didn’t have the right racial balance)

    Since then the Democrats have generally adopted a 15% threshold. This hasn’t stopped someone from wrapping up the nomination before the convention, but I think the leader has to get around 37% of the delegates for that to happen. It was in 1972 that there was suddenly opposition to a “stop-McGovern” movement and the “stop-Carter” and “stop Clinton” movements didn’t work in 1976 and 1992, even though primary voters in many places were voting for anything that would do it.

    The Republicans still had, and ave “winner take all” primaries.

    A convention, theoretically, should be very amenable to a realignment but this on;y apens at the base level in some caucuses

    Now there is a problem with choosing a nominee at the convention. Since 1976, the vice presidential nominee goes through a whole vetting process. This takes weeks. The presumptive nominee in the end has to chose between about 4-6 people because no others have been vetted.

    They wouldn’t be able to do that if the nominee wasn’t known by late June.

    Sammy Finkelman (8e96a4)

  40. When all have been selected, and the leader has about 37% of the pledged delegates, the other candidates with delegates slowly endorse him.

    They talk now of a “brokered” convention when the candidates (who can release delegates or not) would negotiate among themselves, but probably well in advance of the convention.

    Sammy Finkelman (8e96a4)

  41. Frank Luntz
    @FrankLuntz
    ·
    I just got back from Nevada, and hoooo boy have I got stories for you…

    This past Saturday, the @NVDems had a meeting with precinct captains, and still couldn’t show them a demo of the iPad app they’ll use on Caucus Night to submit totals.
    __ _

    matt
    @huntforbird
    ·
    Time to bring in the Awan brothers.

    _

    harkin (b64479)

  42. still couldn’t show them a demo of the iPad app they’ll use on Caucus Night to submit totals.

    I thought this is a different app than the one they were going to use before Iowa.

    They don’t have a different app?

    https://www.vox.com/recode/2020/2/10/21131395/nevada-caucus-2020-tool-not-an-app

    …After understandably scrapping its plans to use an app made by Shadow Inc., the company behind Iowa’s fated caucus app, the Nevada State Democratic Party is now scrambling to come up with a solution before the early voting period begins on February 15.

    Exactly what that solution might be remains a mystery to the greater public. Multiple reports say the party is planning to use what it calls an iPad “tool,” which, the party told volunteers, is not an app — despite its app-like properties. But the state party has yet to confirm this or much of anything else. Nevada’s secrecy is not a good sign, given how tight-lipped its Iowa predecessors were….

    As for the early voting, there is early voting like in regular elections, and same day voter registration – maybe that does not allow switching parties.

    The early voters will submit a paper ballot with their top three to five choices. If a voter’s first choice doesn’t meet the threshold, their vote will be awarded to the next viable candidate on their list. As in Iowa, there will be only one realignment.

    It’s ike Iowa, with the addition of early caucusers leaving instructions. Like in Iowa, they’re supposed to report three sets of numbers: the first round of votes, the votes after the realignment, and the number of delegates awarded. They were supposed to use the aame app, maybe with afew sligh tweaks.

    Like in Iowa, a considerable fraction of caucus sites (in Iowa it must have been around 15%) will not follow the rules correctly. (they apparently allowed people to leave a viable candidate)

    Sammy Finkelman (8e96a4)

  43. I Iowa they got far more returns by telephone than they had prepared for, and they also got a denial of service calls from people on 4chan, plus calls from television reporters trying to get results who called the same number that was supposed to be used to report the results if you didn’t use or couldn’t use the app.

    Some people waited on hold for 35 minutes, some one and a half hours, some even five hours – maybe they weren’t on hold the whole time.

    Sammy Finkelman (8e96a4)

  44. they also got a denial of service calls from people on 4chan

    Not that they can be caught, necessarily, but this should definitely be illegal (I’m sure DDOS is, yet it should also be an election crime).

    Make America Ordered Again (23f793)

  45. Zaid Jilani
    @ZaidJilani
    Rank and file Culinary 226 and UNITE Here members are spreading an open statement of support for Bernie Sanders and Medicare for All, as a revolt against leadership

    2020 gonna be off the hook!
    _

    harkin (b64479)

  46. 45.Usually when we say denial of service, we are talking about web sites, and what’s made unavailable is a web site, and it;s done by hacking into other computers and having them try to connect to the
    website.

    Here it involved plain old telephone service, did not involve hacking and just involved people (recruited by computer) manually, or at most by autodialer, making telephone calls to ensure a number could not be reached by people who were supposed to reach it.

    It was probably limited in scale, but made things worse.

    Sammy Finkelman (8e96a4)

  47. If the idea of a caucus is to get out your followers to SHOW your strength, wtf is “early caucus voting” all about?

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  48. The idea of a caucus isn’t really to get your followers out. It’ simply what can be done without a state law creating a primary. It also has the advantage of allowing people to switch their votes if their candidate is not getting enough at their caucus site.

    The complaint against it is that many people would be forced to miss it.

    so Nevada has early voting I think Sat through Tuesday and there is only one realignment and a candidate once viable cant become unviable – their supporters cannot defect to another candidate in the second round – In early voting, a person can pick up to five choices in order, and it’ll be treated like they were there for the caucus If their first choice is not viable, they go down the list till they find someone who is. No one who is viable can become unviable later.

    In Iowa about 15% of the caucus sites seem to have violated the rules (which are different from before) in some way. Or at least made errors in reporting.

    Sammy Finkelman (8e96a4)


Powered by WordPress.

Page loaded in: 0.3488 secs.