Patterico's Pontifications

2/12/2020

Aftermath of New Hampshire

Filed under: General — JVW @ 6:13 pm



[guest post by JVW]

With the first primary behind us now, let’s pause a moment and outline some of the interesting things that have come up:

Bernard Sanders is clearly the candidate with the most dedicated and passionate following. But there are some ominous stormclouds brewing for him. Though he eked out an official win last night it was by a far more narrow margin than pre-primary polls had suggested, and he comes out of New Hampshire with no more pledged delegates than Pete Buttigieg received. Imagine this: though he won last night, FiveThirtyEight.com has actually lowered the probability that he will amass a majority of delegates for the Democrats’ convention, from 46% yesterday to 36% today. Conversely, Joe Biden was largely assumed to have had a horrible night last night yet saw his probably of winning a majority of delegates by convention time increase from last night’s 14% to today’s 17%.

So what gives? Clearly the numbers guys were expecting Senator Stalin to win by a much bigger margin than his piddly point-and-a-half. After all, four years ago he beat Hillary Clinton by a massive 60% to 38% score. So it seems the smart money is waking up to the fact that Comrade Bernard is not running against an immensely unlikeable candidate this time, and he will thus have a much harder time attracting an “anyone but” crowd. Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar just don’t engender the enmity in people that Her Clintonic Majesty did. And Soviet Sanders, for all of his talk about bringing new people into politics, still has an amen chorus made up mostly of callow young kids and hardened old lefties, though the voting share of the kiddie cohort in New Hampshire dropped precipitously from four years ago, another bad sign for the eldery Marxist.

The assumption seems to be that Joe Lyin’ Dog-Faced Pony Soldier Biden can still right the ship with a win in South Carolina, and that Southern states with large black populations will get him back in the running. By leaving New Hampshire early and heading not to Nevada but straight to South Carolina, the Vigilante Lifeguard is placing a very big bet on winning a sizable chunk of delegates two weeks from Saturday. If he fails and only wins, say, a quarter of them, it’s hard to see how he stays in the race.

For the impressive showing that Pete Buttigieg had last night, he remains at 5% probability of winning a pre-convention majority, unchanged from his pre-New Hampshire standing. Elizabeth Warren has dropped to 3%, and Amy Klobuchar still does not register. Michael Bloomberg, who still has not officially contested a caucus or primary and won’t until Super Tuesday, sits at 4% because of white male privilege or something. FiveThirtyEight.com has upped the odds of the Democrats going into their convention with no candidate holding a majority of delegates from the pre-New Hampshire 27% to a post-New Hampshire 36%.

Our host has a good post up about the coming Nevada caucus, questioning whether it might be as much of a cluster-you-know-what as the Iowa caucus was last week. It sure is going to be fun to watch; at least the Dems know how to make their contests entertaining.

– JVW

61 Responses to “Aftermath of New Hampshire”

  1. I don’t see how Lieawatha remains at five percent probability, unless of course it’s insurance against Comrade Bernie having another heart attack or praising how Fidel Castro dealt with the AIDS crisis in Cuba.

    JVW (54fd0b)

  2. This will keep you up at night: Theoretically a divided Democrat convention might turn to Kirsten Gillibrand as the party nominee, with Kamala Harris as her VP candidate. And Lord knows, but what with things being like they are, they just might win.

    JVW (54fd0b)

  3. My best scenario is that Bernie does really well, but doesn’t get the nomination and his supporters burn the party down.

    Munroe (dd6b64)

  4. My best scenario is that Bernie does really well, but doesn’t get the nomination and his supporters burn the party down.

    Yes. He comes in to the convention with 45% of the total delegates, but he can’t get enough from Steyer or Warren to push him over the top and the Buttigieg-Klobuchar-Biden axis conspires to knock him out on the twelfth ballot, just after all of the under-the-table deals have been struck.

    JVW (54fd0b)

  5. My best scenario is that the House loses another forty or fifty Trumpablicans and the Senate a dozen or so, and the remnants join with the Democrats to remove and disqualify the orange, reelected or not, in lame duck session. (Which they should have done in 2018 but why dwell on the past.)

    nk (1d9030)

  6. nk wrote:

    My best scenario is that the House loses another forty or fifty Trumpablicans and the Senate a dozen or so, and the remnants join with the Democrats to remove and disqualify the orange, reelected or not, in lame duck session. (Which they should have done in 2018 but why dwell on the past.)

    If those electoral numbers you fantasized came about, President Trump will have been defeated for re-election anyway.

    As for it being a lame-duck session, the lame ducks would be the current Congress, not the incoming one.

    The Dana in Kentucky (bb405a)

  7. No, I meant the lame ducks in a fit of pique, and November 3 to January 4 is more than enough time.

    If those electoral numbers you fantasized came about, President Trump will have been defeated for re-election anyway.

    I won’t look up if Nixon’s situation was as extreme as what I fantasize about, but he won 49 states and still ended with a Democrat Congress that kicked him around and drove him out.

    nk (1d9030)

  8. Or maybe I’m only trying to get this fantasy out of my head:

    This will keep you up at night: Theoretically a divided Democrat convention might turn to Kirsten Gillibrand as the party nominee, with Kamala Harris as her VP candidate.

    And oysters. Lots of oysters.

    nk (1d9030)

  9. 3, look for a Pope John Paul I scenario instead, if their smart it starts as Sanders-Gabbard and becomes Gabbard- ?.

    urbanleftbehind (86e36b)

  10. Buttigieg-Klobuchar-Biden axis

    Why is everyone forgetting Bloomberg?

    Make America Ordered Again (23f793)

  11. Biden will be long out by then. It will be Bernie, Buttigieg, Bloomberg, and whomever.

    Make America Ordered Again (23f793)

  12. I think Klobuchar and Buttigieg are going to start pulling in the wobbly Warren and Biden supporters. Up until Iowa, Biden was the strong “Not Bernie” candidate and Warren was the strong “Not Another White Male” candidate. But Klobuchar is just a better politician than Warren and she’s definitely one of the more moderate Democrats running for President. Buttigieg is sitting more to the left, but it looks like he has a good ground game and has the energy to run shake-everybody’s-hands campaign.

    It’ll be interesting if Bloomberg gets any traction in South Carolina. He’s spending big there and in the Super Tuesday states. I don’t know if primary voters are going to enjoy someone coming in so late. I’m not hearing too many people saying “Thank goodness Bloomberg decided to run.”

    Xmas (eafb47)

  13. I think Biden is too damaged.
    I hope none of the candidates get enough delegates and it goes to a brokered convention.

    Paul Montagu (ae8832)

  14. I think Biden is too damaged.

    He’s too nuts.

    Make America Ordered Again (23f793)

  15. DRJ was, the other day, arguing something like because Biden’s weak and easily maleable, his corrupt backage won’t matter as much and thus he’s less of a risk than other Dems to put in the Oval Office.

    Or something.

    I wasn’t fully getting this line of reasoning.

    I do agree about the weak part, and, as such, his campaign is done. Stick a fork in him.

    Make America Ordered Again (23f793)

  16. DRJ was, the other day, arguing something like because Biden’s weak and easily maleable, his corrupt backage won’t matter as much and thus he’s less of a risk than other Dems to put in the Oval Office.

    Well, I don’t think Biden supporters would vote for him because they actually wanted Joe Biden in the Oval Office, they would vote for him because they want the sort of people they think he would bring into the White House, i.e. the Obama Alumni team. But I think there are plenty of Democrats who don’t want the Ben Rhoades-Loretta Lynch-Jen Psaki-Josh Earnest-Jeh Johnson-Samantha Power Axis of Suck back there anytime soon.

    JVW (54fd0b)

  17. Let alone whatever warmed-over ex-Clintonites might still be mucking around. That’s probably the worst thing about Amy Klobuchar is that she would bring those sort of people back because she doesn’t have her own power base.

    JVW (54fd0b)

  18. Sorry booty blacks are the most homophobic group there is with hispanics next. South carolina and nevada are next.

    asset (5e3543)

  19. Still think if it goes to a brokered convention, Michelle Obama is their choice. Only the 2nd time she’d be proud of her country.

    NJRob (4d595c)

  20. lieawatha seen heading back to reservation

    mg (8cbc69)

  21. I think Biden would be a weak President, but I did not say that means his background/character/corruption don’t matter. I believe the GOP would stand up to him and try to thwart the liberal policies he wanted to implement.

    DRJ (15874d)

  22. However, the GOP has shown itself to be very flexible when it comes to principles, so who knows?

    DRJ (15874d)

  23. Joe “pony soldier” Biden. Would someone give me an example of anyone placing as badly as fourth and fifth in the first two states and then going on to win the primary? For either party? Momentum disappears and so does the money. Sure, I would prefer Joe to Bernie or Elizabeth but really…. “lying dog-faced pony soldier”??

    “I’m responsible only for what I say, not what you understand.” John Wayne

    noel (4d3313)

  24. Biden would not be a good bet.

    DRJ (15874d)

  25. Tip for valentines day – Trader Joes has a good deal on Roses by the dozen.
    I bought 3 dozen. 1 for the wife, 1 for my daughter and 1 for my granddaughter, who are now living with us.
    Trying to hide them until Friday will be a challenge.

    mg (8cbc69)

  26. So you say you want a revolution?

    “I’ll give you a revolution: four more years of Donald Trump, unencumbered by the need to get re-elected. That will be a revolution!” Thomas Friedman NYT

    I’d suggest it is already here.

    noel (4d3313)

  27. And Rush Limbaugh says…. “Then they’re sitting there, and they’re looking at Mayor Pete, a 37-year-old gay guy, mayor of South Bend, loves to kiss his husband on the debate stage. And they’re saying, ‘OK, how’s this gonna look, a 37-year-old gay guy kissing his husband onstage next to Mr. Man Donald Trump? What’s gonna happen there?'”

    That may be true to an extent. And if you polled Republicans in 2014 and asked if they’d vote for a Russia loving, cheating, pu**y grabber who insults everybody all of the time… they would have said “no” by about 95%. “Mr. Man” Donald Trump didn’t have a chance.

    Was America ready for a black President in 2008? Many said “no”. Buttigieg already beats Trump in many polls. That will not be what people vote on.

    noel (4d3313)

  28. If I recall correctly, Rush and Donald live in glass mansions.

    noel (4d3313)

  29. This will keep you up at night: Theoretically a divided Democrat convention might turn to Kirsten Gillibrand as the party nominee, with Kamala Harris as her VP candidate. And Lord knows, but what with things being like they are, they just might win.

    JVW (54fd0b) — 2/12/2020 @ 6:16 pm

    In a brokered convention, you gotta think Bloomberg is the top of the ticket. Then, you’re right it’s probably going to be one of Warren or Harris or Gillibrand as VP.

    whembly (fd57f6)

  30. In a brokered convention, you gotta think Bloomberg is the top of the ticket.

    That’s where the smart money now is, but it could also be Buttigieg if he’s caught on in popularity enough and the party faithful believe he can win. He’s friends now with Mark Zuckerberg and getting a lot of support from him. Buttigieg was one of Facebook’s first 300 users and Zuckerberg has recommended two key people on Buttigieg’s staff. Buttigieg has relationships with two of Zuckerberg’s former roommates.

    Any way, where I’m going with this is both that Jimmy Dore has a recent video about Zuckerberg’s support of him (“Facebook Censoring Reporting On Buttigieg Cheating”) and has also pointed out how the DNC were helping Buttigieg, especially in IA, also in NH.

    Buttigieg’s a sharp politician and he’s willing to cheat. He is not overburdened by scruples. More to the point, the DNC has already demonstrated some willingness to cheat for him to stop Bernie. If they also conclude he can win or if Bloomberg doesn’t catch on, they can easily support Buttigieg in a brokered convention and spin it as being pro-diversity/progressive.

    Make America Ordered Again (23f793)

  31. It will be Buttigieg/Harris and they will win by about 54% to 46%. A wild guess? Maybe, but I did win a 50 to 1 long-shot wager in one of the recent elections. I am far from perfect but just better than anyone I know at guessing election results.

    “It aint bragging if you can do it.” (Rush quote)

    I was in NYC on election day 2016. I told a Hillary supporter that I thought she’d win the popular vote but perhaps not the electoral college. She was horrified. Probably still is.

    noel (4d3313)

  32. Rush stole that quote from Reggie Jackson.

    urbanleftbehind (7e0374)

  33. This is Biden’s third campaign for president. He has never won a single caucus or primary. This guy is not only incapable of winning an election, he’s incapable of winning a nomination.

    Sanders is the young socialist/idiot candidate. He’s not going anywhere, but if he does improbably win the nomination, he’ll probably have another heart attack.

    Warren is Hillary-lite, only worse. She’s not going anywhere either.

    Buttigieg and Klobuchar are currently running the best campaigns. Maybe they should team up.

    Forget about Steyer, but don’t count out Bloomberg.

    Not that I care in the least who the Democrats nominate, since I have no intention of voting for him or her. I also have no intention of voting for Trump or any Republican who supports him. I’m looking at you, Cornyn, and I don’t like what I see.

    I’ll be doing the Libertarian protest vote this year.

    Gawain's Ghost (b25cd1)

  34. Sorry. I don’t remember Rush giving Reggie Jackson credit for the quote. Maybe he did.

    noel (4d3313)

  35. This is Biden’s third campaign for president. He has never won a single caucus or primary. This guy is not only incapable of winning an election, he’s incapable of winning a nomination.

    Obama chose Biden as impeachment insurance. Whatever you think of Trump, at least he chose Pence.

    Make America Ordered Again (23f793)

  36. Wouldn’t you love to strap a polygraph machine up to that guy? Pence. The things he has seen.

    noel (4d3313)

  37. Wouldn’t you love to strap a polygraph machine up to that guy? Pence. The things he has seen.

    +1

    Make America Ordered Again (23f793)

  38. If course he wouldn’t….in addition I’ve theorized much of Limbaugh’s future schtick was a result of mistreatment and or friendzoning (by romantic targets) oriniating from the black half of the KC Royal roster

    urbanleftbehind (7e0374)

  39. The techies are with Buttigieg as everybody should know by now. But hacking the election apps and DOS robo-calls will only get him so far. We’ll see how it is on March 17, but I might forego voting by mail and vote at the precinct for Biden after all.

    nk (1d9030)

  40. No, nk. Not Biden. John Wayne isn’t even on in reruns, is it?

    noel (4d3313)

  41. Reading between the lines, I agree with nk about one thing: I don’t think we need to worry about Biden’s tech folks hacking the election or any such malarkey!

    Make America Ordered Again (23f793)

  42. John Wayne isn’t even on in reruns, is it?

    I haven’t needed to watch John Wayne movies for decades. I can replay them all in my head.

    nk (1d9030)

  43. Rush stole that quote from Reggie Jackson.

    It goes back to at least Dizzy Dean, and I would bet that you could trace it back even further.

    JVW (54fd0b)

  44. You really want to have a panic attack? A brokered Dem convention might end up with Gavin Newsom at the top of the ticket, and that a-hole might actually win. We could do a lot worse than Buttigieg or Klobuchar.

    JVW (54fd0b)

  45. Gavin Newsom is the worst.

    Make America Ordered Again (23f793)

  46. CA wont be in play anyway….a variation on that strategy might be to find a Dem Governor from a purplish or reddish state whose current constituents would love to be rid of.

    urbanleftbehind (5eecdb)

  47. They would turn to Newsom because:
    – He’s considered “charismatic,” why I do not know
    – He can easily raise money very quickly
    – He is slick and glib
    – He appeals to woke progressives, but he hasn’t yet burned his bridges with the Wall St/Silicon Valley crowd

    JVW (54fd0b)

  48. Charles Lane
    @ChuckLane1
    ·
    Things @SenSanders says:
    1) Denmark is a model society
    2) The US should ban oil exports

    Things @SenSandersprobably doesn’t know:
    Denmark exports crude oil

    _

    harkin (b64479)

  49. According to Real Clear Politics, Mayor Napoleon has surged into third place in national polling behind Comrade Sanders (numbers on a slight uptick but about the same as they were last March) and Dinosaur Joe (numbers in free-fall). Lieawatha (numbers plummeting) is now fourth, and the Boy Mayor is fifth (slight uptick, approaching his high point from December). Amy Klobuchar still registers under 5%, though she has reached her highest point yet.

    JVW (54fd0b)

  50. JVW (54fd0b) — 2/13/2020 @ 8:05 am

    They can also pick HRC. She’s already “beaten” Trump, she’s got money and she’s glib. She doesn’t appeal to woke progressives but at that point, they’d have lost the Bernie Bros.

    frosty (f27e97)

  51. Interesting that, per the RCP, Bloomberg is already outpolling Buttigieg.

    Make America Ordered Again (23f793)

  52. *RCP average

    Make America Ordered Again (23f793)

  53. Bernie may do well with 70yo hippies, but there aren’t a lot of those — he got 4% of the over-65 vote. A cohort that Kobuchar did well with, and one that ALWAYS votes.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  54. CA wont be in play anyway

    If Bernie is the nominee, with all his dirty red laundry, CA might be a lot closer than you think. Won’t matter as Trump will win every purple-to red state.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  55. Hint: “Medicare-for-All” scares the crap out of people now on Medicare.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  56. Sometimes, I think Bernie Bros, Antifa and Trump Bros were all at the same party 5 years ago – the Bernie Bros counted off “1”, Antifa counted off “2” and Trump counted off “3”, “4” and “5”. The joke will be on the DEM establishment.

    urbanleftbehind (5eecdb)

  57. The only sugary drink I drink is coffee, and the last time I used a straw it was as a screw retainer/screw driver guide for the spring-loaded screw that holds the flint on my lighter (helpful hint to you guys with big hands out there), but there’s a lot more things wrong with Bloomberg than that, first and foremost that he’s a rich jerkoff from New York who might very well kick down our doors to take our single-shot .22 “assault rifles”. Biden or SMOD otra vez.

    nk (1d9030)

  58. We need to save the country from that immoral Mayor Pete. Vote Donald Trump for the sake of wisdom, understanding, counsel, fortitude, knowledge, piety, and fear of the Lord.

    noel (4d3313)

  59. And chastity, temperance, charity, diligence, patience, kindness, and humility.

    noel (4d3313)

  60. I know. I know. “But he’s pro-life.”

    Well, any Republican would be. But I am not willing to throw away our founding principles for the sake of Donald Trump.

    noel (4d3313)

  61. SMOD is teasing us

    Not long after Valentine’s Day ends, a massive asteroid estimated to be between 1,443 feet and 3,248 feet long will pass by Earth around 6:05 a.m. ET on Saturday. Based on the size range, it could be anywhere between the size of a suspension bridge to taller than a skyscraper.

    Don’t get your hopes up, though:

    But the experts at NASA’s Center for Near Earth Object Studies say we’re in no danger.

    :-(

    Dave (1bb933)

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