Patterico's Pontifications

2/11/2020

New Hampshire Primary: Let the Carnage Begin

Filed under: General — JVW @ 11:50 am

[guest post by JVW]

The nation’s first primary takes place today in New Hampshire, the state where Estes Kefauver beat Harry S. Truman in 1952, leading Truman to conclude that he should not run for an additional term; where in 1968 Eugene McCarthy gave Lyndon Johnson such a close race that Johnson too bowed out of seeking reelection; where Bill Clinton rebounded from a poor showing in Iowa to place second in 1992, thereafter styling himself as “the comeback kid”; where Al Gore fought off Bill Bradley’s challenge; where John Kerry buried Howard Dean’s candidacy; where Hillary Clinton upset Barack Obama on her way to the nom– uh, never mind on that one.

The polls seem to show a likely win by neighboring Senator Bernard Sanders, which makes sense seeing as how he walloped Mrs./Sen./Sec. Clinton there four years ago. Mayor Pete Buttigieg, barring a late surge by a rival, should hold on to a second place finish thus cementing his status as the leading candidate in the non-Marxist category. After that, there are some interesting storylines:

* I thought Elizabeth Warren ended up with a relatively decent finish in Iowa at a time that I was expecting her campaign to implode. She’s sitting on about 12% in the Granite State right now, almost half of what polls were showing for her back in November. If she can again finish in the high teens then perhaps she can soldier on a bit longer.

* This evening seems likely to be the political death knell for Joe Biden. He has been unable to contain his manifest weirdness, which could conceivably be dementia, and his support has halved in the past month. I know he thinks he will rebound in South Carolina, but you can’t help but conclude that even Democrat voters believe his time has finally passed.

* There have been reports of an Amy Klobuchar uptick, primarily from voters who are abandoning Lieawatha and Slow Joe. If she finishes a strong third (is second a possibility?) then she could challenge the Boy Mayor as a viable #NeverBernie option.

* My Little Aloha Sweetie has put a lot of effort into New Hampshire, but barring a miracle she will finish in the low single digits. I think it’s true that the DNC has treated her rather shabbily — exacting revenge for her principled resignation four years ago — but even though she will hold on until Super Tuesday this probably will spell the end of the hopes that her campaign would catch fire.

* Fivethirtyeight.com now has Bernard Sanders with a 46% likelihood of amassing a majority of delegates before the convention, followed by Joe Biden at 14%, Elizabeth Warren and Pete Buttigieg both at 5%, and Michael Bloomberg at 3%. They estimate a 27% probability that the Democrats enter their convention with no candidate having a delegate majority.

Let’s see where the night takes us; it could be a very interesting one.

– JVW

Comments (155)

155 Responses to “New Hampshire Primary: Let the Carnage Begin”

My prediction, perhaps more hopeful than well-considered:
Sanders – 27%
Buttigieg – 21%
Klobuchar – 16%
Warren – 12%
Biden – 9%
Gabbard – 6%
Yang – 4%
Steyer – 3%
rest of ’em – 2%
JVW (54fd0b) — 2/11/2020 @ 11:54 am
I really hope the eventual winner has some redeeming features.
Time123 (b53270) — 2/11/2020 @ 11:55 am
One poll released on Saturday had Gabbard at 9% but some later ones had her back at 3%.
urbanleftbehind (5eecdb) — 2/11/2020 @ 11:58 am
One poll released on Saturday had Gabbard at 9% but some later ones had her back at 3%.

Saw that. That’s why I’m hoping that she can hit above 5%. It would be awesome if she somehow beat Biden or even Warren, but I’m not expecting it.
JVW (54fd0b) — 2/11/2020 @ 12:18 pm
Reposting what I posted on another thread earlier with abit added:

Screen shot from Real Clear Politics tracking polls of Democratic presidential candidates in the New Hampshire primary, January 12 through February 9, hat tip althouse

https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-8fdbPN0YgCM/XkGWYTNBvJI/AAAAAAAALqU/rjNvXKlwyvAU3W8uArVrI2oa0LJ-QnCgQCLcBGAsYHQ/s1600/Screen%2BShot%2B2020-02-10%2Bat%2B11.43.05%2BAM.png

My summary:

Joe Biden dropped from 20%, even 25% to below 15%, probably because of the impeachment trial.

Bernie Sanders has climbed from 20% to above 35%. He is not getting support from former Elizabeth Warren voters, because they did not transfer to him between the first and the second round in the Iowa caucuses. Elizabeth Warren voters are largely those who did not vote for Bernie Sanders in 2016. Sanders would be getting his gains from people who would otherwise support different candidates.

Note: We should not see complete ideological consistency between people’s first choice and their second choices because the picture in their minds may be different.

Elizabeth Warren has stayed about the same, dropping from 15% to more like 12%. Amy Klobuchar is said to have gained the most from Friday night’s debate but that should add at most 3% (every event has limited reach) – the last poll shows her at 11.3%, tied with Joe Biden, and just below Elizabeth Warren, who is at 12.5%. But she was still climbing (word of mouth, later reading or listening to radio or TV) She could finish at close to or above 15%.

The key percentage for one or more delegates is 15% It could be that the only candidates who get delegates out of New Hampshire are Sanders, Buttigieg and Klobuchar. Biden could be, so far, frozen out. He left New Hampshire early.

The leaders in the second tier are Tulsi Gabbard and Andrew Yang, tied at 3.0% in the last poll average. Bloomberg may get above that, although he’s not actively campaigning for New Hampshire (don’t know if any of his ads are being seen there) Bloomberg was evidently not named in the poll(s) a may not be on the ballot. He got 3 votes (out 5 cast) in Dixville Notch, 2 from Democrats and 1 from a Republican. This happens in New Hampshire presidential primaries. (people vote for someone who is in the opposite party) Independents can vote in either primary but not people who have selected a party.

Flat, or near the bottom, are Deval Patrick and Michael Bennett. It’s hard to distinguish on the chart between 1.0% (Patrick) and 0.3% (Bennett)
Sammy Finkelman (02a146) — 2/11/2020 @ 12:38 pm
but even though she will hold on until Super Tuesday this probably will spell the end of the hopes that her campaign would catch fire.

Dude.
Dave (6811e8) — 2/11/2020 @ 12:50 pm
I could see me voting for Gabbard, provided I could expect the senate to remain R.
Wa St Blogger (5fcf49) — 2/11/2020 @ 1:11 pm
After the votes are counted, Mr Biden will not be just toast, but toast which has fallen on the floor, buttered side down.
The Dana in Kentucky (bb405a) — 2/11/2020 @ 1:13 pm
Hopefully, the NH D’s won’t screw up the vote. Biden has already left NH. SC is his last stand.
rcocean (1a839e) — 2/11/2020 @ 1:35 pm
2. Who gives a s**t? They’re all politicians. I hope that the eventual winner has some entertainment value. And right now it looks like the frontrunners do.
Gryph (08c844) — 2/11/2020 @ 1:36 pm
Bye bye biden go to grifter hell with clintons. I hope tulsi does well.
asset (a50b80) — 2/11/2020 @ 1:41 pm
A sly allusion in your title to The Hunger Games?
civil truth (9d9be7) — 2/11/2020 @ 1:43 pm
A sly allusion in your title to The Hunger Games?

I’ve actually never read the books or watched the movies. Not quite my demographic. I’m probably channeling the tagline from a horror movie of the 80s long buried in my memory.
JVW (54fd0b) — 2/11/2020 @ 1:47 pm
I think Warren is just benefiting from sane voters not knowing where to turn.
Dustin (b8d6d1) — 2/11/2020 @ 1:49 pm
Perhaps you were hinting at Russian interference:)

Let The Carnage Begin (CD, Album) album cover
Carnage (24) ‎– Let The Carnage Begin
Label:
Not On Label ‎– none
Format:
CD, Album
Country:
Russia
Released:
2011
Genre:
Rock
Style:
Death Metal

https://www.discogs.com/Carnage-Let-The-Carnage-Begin/release/7189017
Kishnevi (575302) — 2/11/2020 @ 2:31 pm
I just left and deleted a joking comment about CNN declaring Trump the winner in NH already, but I just discovered they were actually talking about the Iowa caucus instead. My bad.
JVW (54fd0b) — 2/11/2020 @ 2:43 pm
# 8

After the votes are counted, Mr Biden will not be just toast, but toast which has fallen on the floor, buttered side down.

Make that, fallen on a carpet. A very shaggy carpet.
Bored Lawyer (998177) — 2/11/2020 @ 3:07 pm
Joe Bided did not win a single primary in his two previous runs for president. And he hasn’t wone one yet. This guy is toast. Which makes one wonder, why is Trump so afraid of this guy?
Gawain's Ghost (b25cd1) — 2/11/2020 @ 3:18 pm
Mr Lawyer wrote:

After the votes are counted, Mr Biden will not be just toast, but toast which has fallen on the floor, buttered side down.

Make that, fallen on a carpet. A very shaggy carpet.

One that was badly in need of vacuuming?
The amused Dana (bb405a) — 2/11/2020 @ 3:45 pm
Gawain’s Ghost (b25cd1) — 2/11/2020 @ 3:18 pm

Which makes one wonder, why is Trump so afraid of this guy?

That’s what you should ask Giuliani.

The simple fact is, he was the leading Democrat in the polls. So corrupt Ukrainians created stories (or passed on stories created by Russian intelligence) about Biden, and arguments about him slightly distorting the facts, to interest Giuliani.

Their real aim was to get certain people fired (Ambassador Marie Yovanovich) or kept out of power, (anti-corruption people in Ukraine)

AND Russia wanted to affect Trump’s thinking about Ukraine so maybe U.S. policy would be affected.
Sammy Finkelman (02a146) — 2/11/2020 @ 4:09 pm
Over 5,000 votes counted and Crazy Cute Hippie Crystal Chick Marianne Williamson is still getting blanked. Damn, even the awful Kamala Harris has received three votes. What is wrong with New Hampshire residents?
JVW (54fd0b) — 2/11/2020 @ 4:43 pm
Which makes one wonder, why is Trump so afraid of this guy?

He’s exactly what Trump is: unpredictable (and a touch bit insane, though I think Trump is play-acting a bit and Biden is closer to the real deal). And that more than anything else unnerves the Big Orange.
JVW (54fd0b) — 2/11/2020 @ 4:45 pm
Nearly 10,000 votes counted now and my guesses are actually holding up. Klobuchar is indeed at 18 percent, and warren around 12. Poor Joe is hovering around 7 percent. Ouch. He’s on the verge of not even getting a speaking slot at the convention, the rate he is going.
JVW (54fd0b) — 2/11/2020 @ 4:48 pm
These might be famous last words, but it seems thus far that New Hampshire can count and report votes just fine, thank you very much.
JVW (54fd0b) — 2/11/2020 @ 4:50 pm
Cory Booker is leading the departed candidates race with six votes, followed closely by Kamala Harris at five, then John Delaney and Joe Sestak each with four. Marianne Wiliamson, Julian Castro, and Steve Bullock each have two.
JVW (54fd0b) — 2/11/2020 @ 4:53 pm
21- Massholes on a bus ride north is always a problem come voting time. Not so much the live free and die tribe.
mg (8cbc69) — 2/11/2020 @ 4:57 pm
Flashback to four years ago, here’s how the GOP New Hampshire Primary finished:
Trump – 35.3%
Kasich – 15.8%
Cruz – 11.7%
Bush – 11.0%
Rubio – 10.6%
Christie – 7.4%
Fiorina – 4.1%
Carson – 2.3%
JVW (54fd0b) — 2/11/2020 @ 4:58 pm
About 23,000 votes reported and both Klobuchar and Buttigieg are cutting into Sanders’ lead. Very interesting. Klobuchar now over 20 percent; let’s see if it holds.
JVW (54fd0b) — 2/11/2020 @ 5:01 pm
Looking at that Fox list, I have to ask who all those people are at the end of the listings? About 15 names among the Democrats and 10 among the Republicans I simply don’t recognize.

On the GOP side, Weld has received so far 877 votes. Which would place him at 7th among the Democrats.
Kishnevi (bfcc0b) — 2/11/2020 @ 5:04 pm
An interesting development will be to see if the Klobuchar-Buttigieg-Biden vote exceeds that of the Sanders-Warren-Steyer vote (I can’t figure out where to classify Yang or Gabbard voters). if the K-B-B total exceeds 50 percent then the party establishment will have a reasonable argument to make against the Democrat Socialists.
JVW (54fd0b) — 2/11/2020 @ 5:04 pm
Looking at that Fox list, I have to ask who all those people are at the end of the listings? About 15 names among the Democrats and 10 among the Republicans I simply don’t recognize.

I think I heard once that a bunch of New Hampshire locals manage to get enough signatures each year to have their names placed on the ballot. I don’t know if it is vanity or whimsy or a combination of the two, but I think that is what is going on.
JVW (54fd0b) — 2/11/2020 @ 5:06 pm
Feel the Klomentum!
Dave (6811e8) — 2/11/2020 @ 5:06 pm
Amy did the basic, right thing at the debate: she asked for their vote.
DCSCA (797bc0) — 2/11/2020 @ 5:17 pm
At the moment, with 11% reporting, Trump has fewer votes than Sanders, and Weld is holding onto 7th place.

Will we ever know how many registered Republicans voted in the Democratic primary, and how many Democrats in the Republican primary?
Kishnevi (bfcc0b) — 2/11/2020 @ 5:17 pm
Yang yanks himself; will suspend his campaign; the math just didn’t add up.
DCSCA (797bc0) — 2/11/2020 @ 5:18 pm
White folks in Iowa and New Hampshire won’t vote for Joe. What makes him believe Carolina Corn Pops are gonna vote for him?

He’s a dinosaur in the tarpit; watch the donors dry up.
DCSCA (797bc0) — 2/11/2020 @ 5:21 pm
Will we ever know how many registered Republicans voted in the Democratic primary, and how many Democrats in the Republican primary?

Great question. New Hampshire allows unaffiliated voters to choose which party’s primary they want to vote in. It would be interesting to see how many votes in the Dem primary vs. the GOP primary come from unaffiliated voters. But I don’t think that a registered Republican can vote in the New Hampshire Dem primary or vice-versa.
JVW (54fd0b) — 2/11/2020 @ 5:28 pm
Yang yanks himself; will suspend his campaign; the math just didn’t add up.

It’s not altogether inconceivable that after tonight we are down to three Democrat candidates. I guess Warren might keep slogging along until Super Tuesday and maybe Slow Joe will too, but it seems like the bell has tolled for both of them.

But, as I have reminded everyone all along, I was wrong about every single prediction I made four years ago so I don’t think anyone should give much serious consideration to any forecasting that I do.
JVW (54fd0b) — 2/11/2020 @ 5:31 pm
Thanks for the correction. I thought the primaries were more open that that.

BTW, I thought of Yang as a moderate and Gabbard as a progressive…or more precisely, an non-moderate.
Kishnevi (bfcc0b) — 2/11/2020 @ 5:32 pm
With 16% in, Amy Klobuchar is well ahead of Elizabeth Warren, 7669* to 4539 (19.4 to 11.5%). Perhaps Mrs Warren’s wampum will dry up now?.
The Dana in Kentucky (bb405a) — 2/11/2020 @ 5:33 pm
And this week’s centerfold is … Amy Klobuchar. Take a cold shower, guys! Okay?

And I mean that with all fondness, affection and due regard.
nk (1d9030) — 2/11/2020 @ 5:37 pm
Perhaps Mrs Warren’s wampum will dry up now?

I don’t see a way forward for her unless, as I continually joke, Comrade Sanders starts musing aloud that much of what Stalin did was insightful, or that the U.S. could learn a great deal from studying Hugo Chavez and how he “rescued” the Venezuelan people.

I think the one thing that Klobuchar and Buttigieg can agree upon at this moment is that they don’t want Michael Bloomberg to gain any traction in this race. They could probably get Sanders to unite with them in that cause.
JVW (54fd0b) — 2/11/2020 @ 5:38 pm
And this week’s centerfold is … Amy Klobuchar. Take a cold shower, guys! Okay?

You know, I was just noticing how lovely her eyes truly are. . .
JVW (54fd0b) — 2/11/2020 @ 5:39 pm
I, that would be me, ordered by vote-by-mail ballot for the Democratic primary, today. If I use it, it will be the first time I’ve voted by mail. I am still determined to vote for Joe Biden but I’m not sure that he’s worth actually going to the precinct for.
nk (1d9030) — 2/11/2020 @ 5:39 pm
nk wrote:

I am still determined to vote for Joe Biden but I’m not sure that he’s worth actually going to the precinct for.

Then why vote for him at all?
The mystified Dana (bb405a) — 2/11/2020 @ 5:46 pm
I think if we really goaded him we could trick Bernard Sanders into letting fly with something along the lines of, “Do you know that in 1933 the total sugar beet production of the Soviet Union was even greater than that of the United States?” He would say it so passionately and earnestly too that it would almost seem sweet.
JVW (54fd0b) — 2/11/2020 @ 5:48 pm
Then why vote for him at all?

A man’s gotta be recognized for a half-century of living on the taxpayer dole providing nothing of significance in return.
JVW (54fd0b) — 2/11/2020 @ 5:49 pm
I still think he has the best chance to beat Trump, better than any of the rest of the Democrat pack.
nk (1d9030) — 2/11/2020 @ 5:49 pm
what are you hand rolling, nk?
mg (8cbc69) — 2/11/2020 @ 6:02 pm
28% reporting: Sanders 17,478 (27.6%); Buttigieg 14,652 (23.1%); Klobuchar 12,507 (19.8%); Warren 6,528 (10.3%); Biden 5,223 (8.3%).
The Dana in Kentucky (bb405a) — 2/11/2020 @ 6:03 pm
I still think he has the best chance to beat Trump, better than any of the rest of the Democrat pack.

No. That would be Bloomberg, possibly even Buttigieg.
Make America Ordered Again (23f793) — 2/11/2020 @ 6:06 pm
what are you hand rolling, nk?

Exactly.
Make America Ordered Again (23f793) — 2/11/2020 @ 6:06 pm
Kevin Robillard
@Robillard
·
NEWS: The Warren campaign is pulling their money off of television in South Carolina, per a source.

They’re moving that money, plus some additional funds, towards television ads in Nevada and Maine, plus some radio and print ads in S.C.
__ _

Carlo
@yesthatCarlo
·
It’s over
__ _

John
@JohnDellaporta
·
It’s February 11
__ _

Dave
@dccrue
·
right. it’s february 11th… and it’s over for warren.
__ _

pastajoe
@pastajoe5
·
Will the media report this with all the negative fervor they report on Biden?
__ _

Debbie Flanigan
@DebFlanigan
·
Are there any tv ad opportunities left, or has Bloomberg purchased them all?
_
harkin (b64479) — 2/11/2020 @ 6:07 pm
Would really love to see Klobuchar double Warren’s numbers at the end of the evening. Hoping she gets up to about 22% on a late surge and Fauxcahontas finishes under 11%.
JVW (54fd0b) — 2/11/2020 @ 6:08 pm
It won’t be Steyer. His ads were nauseous .
mg (8cbc69) — 2/11/2020 @ 6:08 pm
@19 Mr Lawyer wrote:

No need for formality. Use my first name. Bored.
Bored Lawyer (56c962) — 2/11/2020 @ 6:11 pm
They’re moving that money, plus some additional funds, towards television ads in Nevada and Maine, plus some radio and print ads in S.C.

Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha. Yeah, because a strong showing in lily-white Maine is way better than a decent showing in a heavily African-American state like South Carolina.

At this point I’m guessing that the Warren campaign team is just trying to figure out how to extend their jobs for a few more paychecks before the inevitable happens. And their candidate is so deluded that she doesn’t realize she’s toast (again, unless Comrade Bernard is caught saying that the dissolution of the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact represented real lost potential for social justice), so she’s happily continuing with the charade a little while longer.
JVW (54fd0b) — 2/11/2020 @ 6:12 pm
The local coverage here in Ma. of the N.H. primary shows the liberal T.V. mouthpieces in complete bewilderment as they realize all the candidates are useless against Trump.
mg (8cbc69) — 2/11/2020 @ 6:14 pm
Would really love to see Klobuchar double Warren’s numbers at the end of the evening. Hoping she gets up to about 22% on a late surge and Fauxcahontas finishes under 11%.

Lieawatha has slipped under 10%! My dream might be realized.
JVW (54fd0b) — 2/11/2020 @ 6:15 pm
gonna go get a beer JVW?
mg (8cbc69) — 2/11/2020 @ 6:16 pm
Hey, Petey has closed the margin with Comrade Bernard to under four percent with 75,000 votes reported. This might not end up being the decisive victory that the Sanders campaign had hoped for.
JVW (54fd0b) — 2/11/2020 @ 6:17 pm
gonna go get a beer JVW?

Not gonna jinx it until it’s official.
JVW (54fd0b) — 2/11/2020 @ 6:17 pm
9:19 PM EST 34% reporting: Sanders 20,834 (27.4%); Buttigieg 17,757 (23.3%); Klobuchar 14,984 (19.7%); Warren 7,562 (9.9%): Biden 6,326 (8.3%)
The Dana in Kentucky (bb405a) — 2/11/2020 @ 6:22 pm
Looking at the cross-tabs from exit polls, a few things are clear:

Sanders gets a majority of those under age 30, but not so well with older voters. Biden and Kobuchar are the exact opposite. Pete and Warren are steady across all cohorts. Sanders also gets wupport from those who are focused on ~~my money~~ income inequality and free health care.
Kevin M (8ae2cb) — 2/11/2020 @ 6:32 pm
“ The local coverage here in Ma. of the N.H. primary shows the liberal T.V. mouthpieces in complete bewilderment as they realize all the candidates are useless against Trump.”
_

Trump is the greatest example of all that nothing is certain this Nov.
_
harkin (b64479) — 2/11/2020 @ 6:34 pm
Jim Geraghty points out that only about 70k votes are in with one-third of precincts having been counted. That suggests that the state will fall well short of the 270k votes that officials expected, and instead could be below the 250k votes from four years ago. So much for the Democrats being highly motivated this year if that turns out to be the case.
JVW (54fd0b) — 2/11/2020 @ 6:34 pm
They estimate a 27% probability that the Democrats enter their convention with no candidate having a delegate majority.

Oh, please. That hasn’t happened since the fantastic Chicago convention in 1968.
Kevin M (8ae2cb) — 2/11/2020 @ 6:34 pm
The college students being interviewed about the democrat candidates is rather sad. Those parents should have kept that money under the mattress.
mg (8cbc69) — 2/11/2020 @ 6:35 pm
I miss Obama.
nk (1d9030) — 2/11/2020 @ 6:37 pm
Biden is your boy
mg (8cbc69) — 2/11/2020 @ 6:38 pm
Forty-two percent of the vote in and Petey has cut Sanders’ lead to just over three points! And Klobuchar continues to double Lieawatha’s totals!
JVW (54fd0b) — 2/11/2020 @ 6:38 pm
MSNBC projecting Warren and Biden will be shut out of delegates in NH.

O.o
whembly (c30c83) — 2/11/2020 @ 6:38 pm
Amy has joementum
mg (8cbc69) — 2/11/2020 @ 6:38 pm
Plantation Joe retreats to South Carolina.
DCSCA (797bc0) — 2/11/2020 @ 6:39 pm
Joe Manchin, but he’s not running. I guess West Virginia does not have an LBJ rule.
nk (1d9030) — 2/11/2020 @ 6:40 pm
Oh, please. That hasn’t happened since the fantastic Chicago convention in 1968.

We’ll have to check-back tomorrow to see if they have updated that probability based upon tonight’s results. But yeah, if Warren and Biden are out then the probability is probably reduced, though if the newly-minted Big Three continue with these close finishes it can certainly happen.
JVW (54fd0b) — 2/11/2020 @ 6:41 pm
About 1 in every 11 voters in the GOP primary thought it worthwhile to vote for Weld.
Kishnevi (bfcc0b) — 2/11/2020 @ 6:42 pm
Marianne Williamson continues with a narrow two vote lead over Julian Castro.
JVW (54fd0b) — 2/11/2020 @ 6:42 pm
JVW wrote:

unless Comrade Bernard is caught saying that the dissolution of the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact represented real lost potential for social justice

You write as though such a statement would bother the Bernie Bros..
The Dana in Kentucky (bb405a) — 2/11/2020 @ 6:43 pm
Klobuchar is a bonafide loonatic from the loon star state.
mg (8cbc69) — 2/11/2020 @ 6:43 pm
About 1 in every 11 voters in the GOP primary thought it worthwhile to vote for Weld.

A lot of them are probably Massachusetts escapees of my age who remember Weld’s governorship mostly fondly. I doubt that he will do as well in the rest of the states. I wonder how much it is costing him to be on the ballot in these states, and if he is self-funding or if some of his cronies are giving him money just for the hell of it.
JVW (54fd0b) — 2/11/2020 @ 6:43 pm
Kind of wondering now if Slow Joe can actually surpass Fauxcahontas at the very end. It would be so awesome to see him beat her by exactly one vote, with both of them at 8.9%.
JVW (54fd0b) — 2/11/2020 @ 6:46 pm
Probably pertinent to note that Bernie is doing well among the people who were at most toddlers when the Berlin Wall fell.
Kishnevi (bfcc0b) — 2/11/2020 @ 6:47 pm
Joe Biden loves black folks and hopes they love him back. SC is his only hope. If he loses there, it’ll be: “So Long Joe, see you in the Ukraine”.

The Never Trumpers came out in force in NH – all 3,000 of them. Currently, Trump has a 95% R approval rating. And D’s could vote in the R primary in NH. i suspect Weld might do better in Vermont, Mass, and RI and rack up 15% of the vote. He’ll drop to zero in the rest of the country.
rcocean (1a839e) — 2/11/2020 @ 6:48 pm
That Biden dropped all the way to single digits in NH after a drubbing in Iowa is amazing. Maybe the industrial states with black votes and Catholics will help him.
rcocean (1a839e) — 2/11/2020 @ 6:50 pm
Lost in all of this discussion of Biden and Warren and Sanders and Klobuchar is that this is so far a fantastic night for Mayor Pete. As it stands right now, he’ll finish within three percent of the guy from the next-door state who won the damn thing by a 22% margin four years ago. He’s for real. Now let’s see if he can win over minorities.
JVW (54fd0b) — 2/11/2020 @ 6:50 pm
My cousin-whom-I-can’t-stand moved from Massachusetts to NH about 15 years ago (at least). Her political comments on Facebook are not frequent, but they range so freely over the spectrum I have no idea whom she might be voting for.
Kishnevi (bfcc0b) — 2/11/2020 @ 6:51 pm
9:50 PM EST 51% reporting: Sanders 33,313 (27.7%); Buttigieg 28,881 (23.4%); Klobuchar 24,202 (19.6%); Warren 11,727 (9.5%): Biden 10,396 (8.4%)
The Dana in Kentucky (bb405a) — 2/11/2020 @ 6:51 pm
Did Trump carry New Hampshire in 2016?
nk (1d9030) — 2/11/2020 @ 6:52 pm
And D’s could vote in the R primary in NH.

Not true, according to the NH elections site (linked above in an earlier comment). Only unaffiliated voters could choose which party primary to vote in, and all party registration changes had to be in by the end of last October.
JVW (54fd0b) — 2/11/2020 @ 6:52 pm
none of these candidates will win ohio, pensylvania, michigan, wisconsin
mg (8cbc69) — 2/11/2020 @ 6:55 pm
It will be a moral victory if Little Aloha Sweetie can at least pass Tom Steyer. Right now she’s 525 votes behind him.
JVW (54fd0b) — 2/11/2020 @ 6:55 pm
The real winner of the New Hampshire primary just might be Michael Bloomberg.
The Dana in Kentucky (bb405a) — 2/11/2020 @ 6:56 pm
none of these candidates will win ohio, pensylvania, michigan, wisconsin

Not even Amy Klobuchar? I have this crazy idea where she ekes out wins in all four, but at the same time she only wins California by 2 million votes instead of Hillary’s 4 million; she only wins New York by 1 million instead of Hillary’s 2 million, and thus she wins the electoral college but loses the popular vote. Wouldn’t that be a mind-blower?
JVW (54fd0b) — 2/11/2020 @ 6:57 pm
JVW wrote:

It will be a moral victory if Little Aloha Sweetie can at least pass Tom Steyer. Right now she’s 525 votes behind him.

With 51% of the vote in, Marianne Williamson has a one vote lead over Julian Castro!
The Dana in Kentucky (bb405a) — 2/11/2020 @ 6:58 pm
With 56 percent of the vote in, Julian Castro has pulled back ahead of Marianne Williamson, 44 votes to 41. This is going to go down to the wire.
JVW (54fd0b) — 2/11/2020 @ 7:00 pm
You’d think that in New Hampshire Wicca would be stronger than that up against Santeria.
nk (1d9030) — 2/11/2020 @ 7:01 pm
@93 It’s cost him a bucket load of money though. It will be interesting to see how far it can get him.
frosty (f27e97) — 2/11/2020 @ 7:01 pm
With 51% of the vote in, Marianne Williamson has a one vote lead over Julian Castro!

I’m on Fox News’ site, Bluegrass State Dana. It seems to be a bit ahead of wherever you are monitoring the results.
JVW (54fd0b) — 2/11/2020 @ 7:01 pm
nk, Trump did win in 2016
Trump 35.3%
Kasich 15.8%
Cruz 11.7%
Bush 11%
Rubio 10.7%
Christie 7.4%
Fiorina 4.1%
Carson 2.3%
Gilmore 0.5%
Kishnevi (bfcc0b) — 2/11/2020 @ 7:04 pm
The quite hilarious Retired Orrin Hatch Twitter account, which I think is run by ex-staffers who ran his hilarious Senate Twitter account, has a — yes, I’m going to use the adjective again — hilarious Tweet up poking some fun at Biden. It uses a funny picture, so you’re going to have to go to Twitter to see it because I can’t put the picture in the comment.
JVW (54fd0b) — 2/11/2020 @ 7:06 pm
Hillary Clinton won NH’s electoral votes last time around, nk, if that is what you were asking.
JVW (54fd0b) — 2/11/2020 @ 7:08 pm
Sixty percent reported and Mayor Pete is almost within two points of Senator Hammer-and-Sickle. Could a major upset be brewing? Could the DNC be futzing with the vote counting?
JVW (54fd0b) — 2/11/2020 @ 7:09 pm
Amy is going nowhere. The NAACP will be having a hey day with her jailing a innocent black kid.
mg (8cbc69) — 2/11/2020 @ 7:10 pm
It’s gotta be raaaaacist, since New Hampshire is lily-white, and they voted for the white chick over the Injun.
The Dana in Kentucky (bb405a) — 2/11/2020 @ 7:13 pm
I’ve got 63% in, and Marianne leads Julian by six votes, 54 to 48!
The Dana in Kentucky (bb405a) — 2/11/2020 @ 7:17 pm
@94 I think CA turnout will be big this year for Dems. Most of the Rs I know are at least vaguely dissatisfied and kind of ambivalent with Trump and the Dems’s anger at him is burning with the fire of a thousand suns and increasing every time Trump takes a shot at CA. There are no calm Dems in CA AFAICT. None. They have no chill. The Dems are going to turn out no matter who it is and the Dem nominee will get more votes than Clinton did IMO.
Nic (896fdf) — 2/11/2020 @ 7:19 pm
“‘Amy’ what you wanna do? I think I could stay with you; For a while, maybe longer if I do; Fallin’ in and out of love with you; Fallin’ in and out of love with you; Don’t know what I’m gonna do; I’d keep fallin’ in and out of love with you.” – Pure Prairie League, 1975

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V4mCiYQeU_s
DCSCA (797bc0) — 2/11/2020 @ 7:30 pm
@94 I think CA turnout will be big this year for Dems

Sure, but I think it’s equally possible that a lot of people who voted against Trump four years ago because he was — what’s the term they like to use? oh yes — “an existential threat” will quietly vote for him this time around because after four years they appreciate where they are in life. Sure the fire-breathing left will still hate him with the intensity of a thousand suns, but a lot of regular folks might cross over this time around. Not enough to put the state in the GOP column, mind you, but enough to significantly narrow the margin.
JVW (54fd0b) — 2/11/2020 @ 7:33 pm
Thanks, Kishnevi and JVW. I was responding to the Never Trumper comment just before.
nk (1d9030) — 2/11/2020 @ 7:33 pm
Sixty-eight percent reported and even though Warren continues to lose ground, so too does Biden. It looks unlikely that he will catch her at the end.
JVW (54fd0b) — 2/11/2020 @ 7:34 pm
Thanks, Kishnevi and JVW. I was responding to the Never Trumper comment just before.

I figured you knew the answer and the question was merely rhetorical, but just in case anyone else wondered.

New Hampshire is one of those states that the GOP sometimes threatens to win but seems to end up falling short. I think GW Bush won it in ’00, but lost it four years later to the local guy from down south. It might serve as a good harbinger this time around as to whether or not Trump is expanding his voter base.
JVW (54fd0b) — 2/11/2020 @ 7:37 pm
At this point the New York Times gives Bernard Sanders 2:1 odds of emerging as the winner of tonight’s primary. Apparently their analysts still think Pete Buttigieg has a chance to pass him. Meanwhile, at 69% reported, Sanders has extended his lead back to 2.4%.
JVW (54fd0b) — 2/11/2020 @ 7:42 pm
This is obviously infinitely better than what happened in Iowa last week, but still, we’re going on three hours since the polls closed and we still are only at seventy percent of the precincts reported? That seems pretty weak.
JVW (54fd0b) — 2/11/2020 @ 7:45 pm
Going to look, it seems Hillary won by the skin of her teeth, 348,526 to 345,790. Gary Johnson got approximately 30,000 votes.
Kishnevi (bfcc0b) — 2/11/2020 @ 7:47 pm
There’s only one way this screenplay is gonna end– our Captain will die in office in Term Two, face down in a plate of German chocolate cake between two melting scoops of Dolly Madison Vanilla.

Then, as the TV cameras follow the mournful funeral procession along Pennsylvania Avenue, all America will sing: ‘Dead skunk the middle of the road; dead skunk in the middle of the road…’ 😉

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nssSIKOrSNk
DCSCA (797bc0) — 2/11/2020 @ 7:52 pm
I guess there’s no hood towns in NH to mimic the “surprise come from behind” victories of Harold Wasington, Doug Jones, Tony Evers and most recently John Bel Edwards.
urbanleftbehind (f7eb71) — 2/11/2020 @ 7:53 pm
Well, Fauxcahontas just got a big bump, probably from a college town like Durham or Hanover, so she’s now comfortably ahead of Biden once again and up in the 9.65% range. Unless Scranton somehow gets to vote in the New Hampshire Primary, he’s probably going to finish behind her.
JVW (54fd0b) — 2/11/2020 @ 7:56 pm
If nothing else, he has dispelled the myth of the Skull and Crossbones Society, DCSCA.
nk (1d9030) — 2/11/2020 @ 7:56 pm
Three-quarters of precincts have reported, and Sanders keeps that pesky two-point lead over Buttigieg.
JVW (54fd0b) — 2/11/2020 @ 7:58 pm
DCSCA wrote:

There’s only one way this screenplay is gonna end– our Captain will die in office in Term Two, face down in a plate of German chocolate cake between two melting scoops of Dolly Madison Vanilla.

As long as he is there for a second term, I can handle that!

Look, he’s obese and eats like crap, so yeah, it could easily happen. We can certainly stand to have Mike Pence as President.

The one truly impeachable offense I thought Mr Trump had committed was getting his steaks well done, and eating them with ketchup!
The Dana in Kentucky (bb405a) — 2/11/2020 @ 7:59 pm
And with 75% of precincts reporting, Marianne Williamson has opened up an 11 vote margin on Julian Castro!
The Dana in Kentucky (bb405a) — 2/11/2020 @ 8:01 pm
@109 Now this is all just my experience, but all the regular people left that I know hate Trump. Haaaattteeeeeee him. If there was maximum velocity for anger, they would have hit it. Even many of the independents haaaattttteeee him. I have a friend who is an unaffiliated former military guy who said that if the Dem dropped dead he’d still vote the dead guy over Trump and he’s never been a registered Dem and was a McCain voter. And all the Dems I know are dying to vote against Trump. Like, would walk over broken glass barefoot.

Here are some of the reasons I’ve observed that make me think what I said. A lot of our taxes went up in Trump’s famous tax cut (high property values). The firefighters are mad at him because of his comments on how they are careless. The parts of our state that needed a fence (populous areas) already have one and our conservative Ag and construction sectors use undocumented labor, so that isn’t a draw. The military people I know don’t really like Trump. Even some of the prison guards that I know (and they are usually hard hard R) don’t necessarily love him. There are some sovereign cit types up in the cascades who are super onboard for Trump, but I don’t know that any other usual R group is. Most Dems didn’t like Trump much in 16, but most of them that I knew also didn’t take the “existential threat” thing seriously (mostly they thought Hillary would win and some stayed home because of it). Hillary was super divisive and she still got overwhelming votes over Trump. I don’t think any of the current Dem crop are nearly as divisive and Trump definitely is.
Nic (896fdf) — 2/11/2020 @ 8:04 pm
And with 75% of precincts reporting, Marianne Williamson has opened up an 11 vote margin on Julian Castro!

It’s over. There is no viable path for him to recover. If somehow he finds some last-minute votes then I think we have to open an investigation to voter fraud or to vote fixing during the counting process.
JVW (54fd0b) — 2/11/2020 @ 8:14 pm
The one truly impeachable offense I thought Mr Trump had committed was getting his steaks well done, and eating them with ketchup!

Impeachable? That’s a capital crime.
JVW (54fd0b) — 2/11/2020 @ 8:16 pm
New York Times now has Sanders at 85 percent likelihood of winning tonight, even though his lead has shrunk to 1.5% and there is still about one-fifth of the precincts to be tabulated. They must all be communes that are still delivering their results via ox-driven cart to Concord.
JVW (54fd0b) — 2/11/2020 @ 8:19 pm
CNN has projected Bernie the winner, with 90% reporting.
Dave (1bb933) — 2/11/2020 @ 8:30 pm
MSNBC is already announcing him as the winner.
JVW (54fd0b) — 2/11/2020 @ 8:36 pm
Amy Klobuchar still trying to hit that magic 20% mark (confession: I have no idea if it means anything significant such as getting an additional delegate; I’m just thinking of it as a psychological threshold), and it now looks like Elizabeth Warren will remain over 9%, though her total will in fact be doubled by her Minnesota colleague.
JVW (54fd0b) — 2/11/2020 @ 8:44 pm
Apparently Deval Patrick will announce tomorrow that he is closing his campaign.
JVW (54fd0b) — 2/11/2020 @ 8:48 pm
I keep forgetting that he had one.
Kishnevi (51ad16) — 2/11/2020 @ 8:53 pm
15% is the min. for re diving a share of delegates
urbanleftbehind (f7eb71) — 2/11/2020 @ 8:57 pm
About delegate counts in NH

New Hampshire has 24 national delegates. There are 16 district-level delegates divided between the state’s two congressional districts, five at-large delegates and three pledged party leader and elected official delegates. Candidates need to get at least 15% of the vote in a district or statewide to reach the delegate threshold. If no candidate reaches 15% — which is unlikely based on current polling — the threshold is half of whatever the front-runner’s vote percentage is in the district.

[From the Dog Trainer]

It seems the final apportionment requires knowing vote totals in both districts.
Kishnevi (51ad16) — 2/11/2020 @ 8:59 pm
Fox is reporting delegate counts as 8 apiece for Bernie and Pete, and 5 for Amy, leaving 3 delegates TBD. Wikipedia, for whatever reason, is showing it as 9,9,6, with all delegates assigned.
Kishnevi (51ad16) — 2/11/2020 @ 9:05 pm
At the end of the day it looks like the Dems will in fact come close to or even reach the 290,000 voter turn-out that the New Hampshire Secretary of State predicted. Republicans have slightly exceeded the 128,000 level that was projected for them.
JVW (54fd0b) — 2/11/2020 @ 9:16 pm
Fox is reporting delegate counts as 8 apiece for Bernie and Pete, and 5 for Amy, leaving 3 delegates TBD. Wikipedia, for whatever reason, is showing it as 9,9,6, with all delegates assigned.

Very interesting. It appears that Klobuchar will fall just short of the 20% mark. I wonder if that would have given her one more delegate and made the final total 9-8-7 for the top three.
JVW (54fd0b) — 2/11/2020 @ 9:18 pm
Trump sets N.H.voting record over the last 4 decades. And yes eating steak past medium rare is impeachable. Just don’t hire schiff or Nadless to get the job finished.
mg (8cbc69) — 2/11/2020 @ 9:22 pm
lieawatha need to move teepee from N.E.
mg (8cbc69) — 2/11/2020 @ 9:24 pm
With 86% reporting, that’s what Trump has too. 85.5% of the 128,000 Republicans (versus the 290,000 Democrats). A shoe-in in November.
nk (1d9030) — 2/11/2020 @ 9:26 pm
with clowns dropping out all over the place the clown car can now pick up hitchhikers.
mg (8cbc69) — 2/11/2020 @ 9:31 pm
With 86% reporting, that’s what Trump has too. 85.5% of the 128,000 Republicans (versus the 290,000 Democrats). A shoe-in in November.

I’ll give Trump this much: in 2012 when Barack Obama was an incumbent only about 60,000 Democrats came out to vote; and it would seem that roughly the same number of Republicans came out for the 2004 primary when GW Bush was the incumbent.
JVW (54fd0b) — 2/11/2020 @ 9:33 pm
Republicans, most of them, are energized to vote for this President.
Make America Ordered Again (23f793) — 2/11/2020 @ 9:34 pm
Pay raises and job security changes hearts and minds.
mg (8cbc69) — 2/11/2020 @ 9:37 pm
Yeah. By the time 2024 rolls around, Patterico is going to be clamoring for eight more years!
Make America Ordered Again (23f793) — 2/11/2020 @ 9:46 pm
Pay raises and job security changes hearts and minds.

A trillion dollars a year of borrowed walking-around money doesn’t hurt either.
Dave (1bb933) — 2/11/2020 @ 9:47 pm
https://twitter.com/alx/status/1166737162017988608?s=20
_

VodkaBot Scotty G
@ScottintheFalls
·
“It’s there or there or out there somewhere”

It’s in his head
__ _

PopF
@PopF17
·
The only tool heard in this clip is O’Donnell.
_
harkin (b64479) — 2/11/2020 @ 9:48 pm
as burnee and peat go 1&2
putin smiles
mg (8cbc69) — 2/12/2020 @ 4:06 am
https://beachgrit.com/2020/02/albee-layer-on-nazare-tow-surfing-challenge-our-lives-are-click-bait/
carnage indeed
mg (8cbc69) — 2/12/2020 @ 4:12 am
Andrea Mitchell
@mitchellreports

.@PeteButtigieg is speaking congratulating @BernieSanders @SenAmyKlobuchar and all the other candidates after a remarkable finish too close to officially call but broad range across a coalition of voters: Democrats, Independents and Buttigieg says some newly former Republicans.
__ _

John Aravosis🇺🇸
@aravosis

Meanwhile, Sanders’ HQ crowd is mocking and booing Pete.
__ _

David Frum
@davidfrum

Why does this keep happening? Why does nobody stop it?
__ _
harkin (b64479) — 2/12/2020 @ 7:21 am
Re 149 and the Aravosis tweet – are they saying the 3-letter F word, speaking with a lithp, flailing their wrists, bending over, “eating a microphone” and walking with a pronounced switch? Maybe a little bit of “Smithers! Smithers!”
urbanleftbehind (5eecdb) — 2/12/2020 @ 7:25 am
Elizabeth Warren
@ewarren

A young girl came up to me tonight and said, “I’m a broke college student with a lot of student loan debt. I checked and I have $6 in the bank—so I just gave $3 to keep you in this fight.” We’re staying in this fight for the people who are counting on us.
__ _

PostFactSojournerTim
@PostFactSojourn
·
I hope you gave her the $3 back.
_
harkin (b64479) — 2/12/2020 @ 7:38 am
With 96% of precincts reporting, the two ‘progressives’, Senators Sanders and Warren, have 102,544 votes between them, of 34.9%, while the three (purported) moderates, Buttigieg, Klobuchar and Biden, have 154,033, or 52.9%. Why, it’s almost as though the wild-eyed leftists lost this one.
The Dana in Kentucky (bb405a) — 2/12/2020 @ 9:26 am
My bad, the Sanders brigade did introduce the chant of “Wall Street Pete!” to the national consciousness though.
urbanleftbehind (5eecdb) — 2/12/2020 @ 9:31 am
A link from ulb’s link led me to an article from last week that closed with this little gem from Biden.

His attack on Biden for using the “same Washington playbook” prompted the 36-year Delaware senator to dig at Buttigieg’s electoral record in a small town such as Indiana’s South Bend.

“You guys have seen Pete. He’s a good guy. You’ve seen Bernie. You’ve seen me. Some things are just a self-evident contrast. I’ve gotten more than 8,600 votes in my life,” he told reporters in Pella.

Given his vote total yesterday he might want to rethink that line.
Kishnevi (4d78f4) — 2/12/2020 @ 9:40 am
151. …“I’m a broke college student with a lot of student loan debt. I checked and I have $6 in the bank—so I just gave $3 to keep you in this fight.” …

So this was only yesterday?

Rush Limbaugh mentioned this on his program, together with the the idea of she should be giving the $3 back (which he did not credit)

Said Elizabeth Warren had no empathy. He (Rush Limbaugh) would give the money back in such circumstances)
Sammy Finkelman (8e96a4) — 2/12/2020 @ 10:15 am

2/11/2020

New Hampshire Primary: Let the Carnage Begin

155 Responses to “New Hampshire Primary: Let the Carnage Begin”

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