Patterico's Pontifications

2/6/2020

Iowa: Absolutely Unbelievable [UPDATED]

Filed under: General — JVW @ 1:04 pm



[guest post by JVW]

We haven’t talked about it yet, but what a friggin’ mess. I’m going to assume that everyone here is generally conversant with the big picture: we’re now more than sixty hours removed from the end of Monday’s Iowa Caucuses (or, as Rush Limbaugh always styled them, “the Hawkeye Cauci”) and the Iowa Democrat Party is still unable to give a final tally. At this writing, nearly 97 percent of the votes have been reported, and it would appear that Bernard Sanders and Peter Buttigieg are battling it out for the final lead. There doesn’t appear to be any schedule for finalizing the results.

A few random tidbits for discussion:

– This is a huge embarrassment for the Iowa Democrat establishment. As plenty of wags have pointed out, a party that wants to manage a health care system for 350 million Americans can’t even figure out how to count the votes of roughly 170 thousand caucus participants. Some long-time Iowa caucus observers believe that this is the end of Iowa’s first-in-the-nation status in the Presidential sweepstakes, and that the state will move to a primary system next cycle.

– With failure of the caucus app, produced by Clinton campaign team alumni, precinct chairmen have been reporting final numbers either through call-ins or via email. But the New York Times is suggesting that these reports are not always tabulated correctly at the precinct level, and that some of the reported results are not possible under the caucus rules. It’s worth noting too that apparently Bernard Sanders has received the greatest number of votes in first-round voting, but Mayor Petey has surpassed him as “non-viable” candidates’ votes get reapportioned. Shades of 2016 for some Bernie Bros and Babes, no doubt.

– DNC Chairman Tom Perez is now “ordering” a recanvass of Iowa, but the state party does not believe that he has that authority and will only consider this request if it comes from one of the candidates. The Joe Biden campaign has been the most vociferous in questioning the results, but most observers at this point believe that was more of a strategy for trying to explain away his tremendously unimpressive performance.

– Speaking of Slow Joe, pundits (who, we can’t stress enough, are quite often dead wrong) are starting to draft his campaign obituary. The only silver lining for the former VP is that it appears likely he will avoid finishing fifth by staying ahead of Amy Klobuchar, thus avoiding a repeat of his 2008 finish which brought his second Presidential campaign to a swift end. Polls released since Monday suggest that the Boy Mayor and Comrade Bernard are surging in New Hampshire, and that the surge is coming at the expense of Barack Obama’s former insurance policy and comedy relief running mate.

Anyway, pop the popcorn and settle in for the rest of the fun.

UPDATE – The Sanders campaign claims to have raised $25 million in the month of January. That is an awful lot of lettuce coming allegedly from small donors, but if true then I think we need to see Senator Sanders as a very formidable candidate. Indeed, Nate Silver now has Comrade Candidate as the favorite to win the nomination.

UPDATE II: Uh-oh, Lieawatha reportedly has had — ahem, ahem — “women of color” resign from her Nevada campaign over the past several weeks because they believe they are being marginalized. I guess when your base consists of college professors and entitled middle-class feminists it can be difficult to get the hierarchies of intersectionality just right.

– JVW

55 Responses to “Iowa: Absolutely Unbelievable [UPDATED]”

  1. How’s this for a scenario:

    – Sanders wins NH, followed closely by Buttigieg. Warren finishes a not-too-distant third, with Biden just behind her. Amy Klobuchar ends her campaign and her support goes mostly, in order, to Warren, Biden, and Buttigieg.

    – Biden and Warren surprise everyone with a one-two finish in the Nevada caucus. Sanders drops to fourth, behind Buttigieg.

    – Biden’s momentum carries over to South Carolina where he wins on the strength of the black vote. Sanders rebounds for second, edging out Warren. Buttigieg is in fourth, and pundits start wondering aloud if he can win over minority voters.

    – Super Tuesday is a real cluster-you-know-what. Sanders wins California, Colorado, and Vermont. Warren wins in Massachusetts, Maine, and Oklahoma. Biden wins in Alabama, Arkansas, North Carolina, and Tennessee. Buttigieg wins in Minnesota, and surprises everyone by winning very narrowly in both Texas and Virginia. At the end of the evening, the four candidates have roughly spilt the delegates pledged to those states.

    It would only get more fun from there.

    JVW (54fd0b)

  2. Do I get a DNC brokered convention bingo!?!?!

    whembly (51f28e)

  3. As I said in 2016, this is no way to select candidates for the American people. The entire system failed us.

    Ragspierre (d9bec9)

  4. fwiw Bernie got 6000 more votes. But of course the DNC is scared of him so they are “recanvassing” whatever that means. The DNC are idiots and Tom Perez should not still have a job.

    JRH (52aed3)

  5. Did you see the coin toss to decide a tie?

    You must see the coin toss at 4:39 (and the whole video is great) of YouTuber The Amazing Lucas’s video titled “Iowa Caucus Was GLORIOUS” (I can’t include a link because of the spam filter).

    Please update the post with this video cued to that time. It has to be seen to be believed.

    Make America Ordered Again (815bbc)

  6. Did you see the coin toss to decide a tie?

    You must see the coin toss at 4:39 (and the whole video is great) of YouTuber The Amazing Lucas’s video titled “Iowa Caucus Was GLORIOUS” (I can’t include a link because of the spam filter).

    Please update the post with this video cued to that time. It has to be seen to be believed.

    ——–

    [Well, I don’t find the video as interesting as you do. Coin-flips have been used fairly often in past caucuses to break ties, so there is nothing new going on this year, though I do admit that the technique used in this coin-flip is nothing I have ever seen. But in case others are interested, I am happy to link to the video clip here so others can see the curiousness of the method:

    https://youtu.be/CW_szcPLc0s?t=276

    – JVW]

    Make America Ordered Again (815bbc)

  7. I certainly hope the Dems get their act together. #NeverTrump needs a viable alternative to vote for without looking totally batsh!t crazy.

    Munroe (dd6b64)

  8. This ^ is trolling. Just FYI.

    Ragspierre (d9bec9)

  9. It’s worth noting too that apparently Bernard Sanders has received the greatest number of votes in first-round voting, but Mayor Petey has surpassed him as “non-viable” candidates’ votes get reapportioned.

    No, Bernie says he led in both of them.

    Buttigieg came out ahead because of apportionment.

    Sammy Finkelman (02a146)

  10. Ragspierre (d9bec9) — 2/6/2020 @ 1:48 pm

    Don’t worry. We’re only at number 7 so there’s plenty of room for you to work.

    frosty (f27e97)

  11. Milwaukee will make 68 chicago look like a picnic.

    mg (8cbc69)

  12. No, Bernie says he led in both of them.

    At this point what a candidate or their campaign says happened on Monday night should be taken with a grain of salt. Hopefully Iowa Democrats will eventually release the full report of caucus night, and we can try to figure out what truly happened, should we still care.

    JVW (54fd0b)

  13. Lachlan Markay
    @lachlan
    New: Shadow Inc. investors ACRONYM and Higher Ground Labs are scrubbing their websites of info linking them to the firm behind the app that fueled Iowa caucus chaos last night
    __ _

    Lachlan Markay
    @lachlan
    ·
    Higher Ground removed Shadow’s predecessor firm from its list of portfolio companies. An ACRONYM blog post saying Shadow would “exist under the ACRONYM umbrella” has been deleted. A page saying ACRONYM “launched” Shadow has been changed to “invested in”
    __ _

    Lachlan Markay
    @lachlan
    ·
    Also in this piece: new details on ACRONYM’s collaboration with a prominent Dem dark money group to test messaging strategy in 10 key House races

    That messaging wound up in FB ads run by an ACRONYM-backed “news” venture supporting the very same House Ds https://thedailybeast.com/investors-rush-to-downplay-ties-to-shadow-the-firm-behind-iowa-caucus-clusterfuck
    __ _

    Razor
    @hale_razor
    ·
    Scrubbed, like, with a brush?

    _

    harkin (d6cfee)

  14. UPDATE – The Sanders campaign claims to have raised $25 million in the month of January. That is an awful lot of lettuce coming allegedly from small donors, but if true then I think we need to see Senator Sanders as a very formidable candidate. Indeed, Nate Silver now has Comrade Candidate as the favorite to win the nomination.

    JVW (54fd0b)

  15. Whoops – did not realize DB link url contained a bad word:

    2nd try:

    Lachlan Markay
    @lachlan
    New: Shadow Inc. investors ACRONYM and Higher Ground Labs are scrubbing their websites of info linking them to the firm behind the app that fueled Iowa caucus chaos last night
    __ _

    Lachlan Markay
    @lachlan
    ·
    Higher Ground removed Shadow’s predecessor firm from its list of portfolio companies. An ACRONYM blog post saying Shadow would “exist under the ACRONYM umbrella” has been deleted. A page saying ACRONYM “launched” Shadow has been changed to “invested in”
    __ _

    Lachlan Markay
    @lachlan
    ·
    Also in this piece: new details on ACRONYM’s collaboration with a prominent Dem dark money group to test messaging strategy in 10 key House races

    That messaging wound up in FB ads run by an ACRONYM-backed “news” venture supporting the very same House Ds https://thedailybeast.com/
    __ _

    Razor
    @hale_razor
    ·
    Scrubbed, like, with a brush?
    _

    harkin (d6cfee)

  16. Couple of new NH polls out. Bernie is leading, but Buttagieg is closing in on him. (+8). Elizabeth Warren is not doing well, esp considering it is her back yard. I think the story that is emerging is that Buttagieg is taking over Biden’s lane as the moderate choice (of white Dems). interestingly, Sanders fares much better in SC than Buttagieg, only 5 points behind Biden. I think Biden’s days are numbered.

    JRH (52aed3)

  17. Thanks, JVW.

    I know coin flips are often used to break ties. However, usually the method isn’t to throw it in the air and, after catching it, look at it in your hand for a moment and then carefully move it into your other hand, taking another delegate from the candidate the Party doesn’t want to win.

    Worse coin toss ever.

    Make America Ordered Again (07b8b7)

  18. It’s an awkward toss but not necessarily malfeasance. He flips it, catches it, covers it with the catching hand, then removes it with the other hand and deposits it back in the catching hand. I don’t think he looked at it or turned it over any way besides the way it landed.

    JRH (52aed3)

  19. i hope Iowa just ignores Perez. From what I’ve read, Iowa was ORDERED to use the App by the DNC. Of course, that doesn’t absolve them from blame. why didn’t they have a backup plan? In any case, all we’re talking about is counting heads and reporting it. No higher math involved. All you is a phone and a piece of paper. Or an email account.

    Its why everyone believes this was a conspiracy to help Biden and bury his poor showing.

    rcocean (1a839e)

  20. The APP whether it worked or not, seems like a scam. It cost $millions, but was a very simple program put out with out any DHS security testing and almost zero debugging. Again, we’re talking about an APP that does nothing more than Add numbers up, and report it in a pretty way, something your excel spreadsheet could do.

    rcocean (1a839e)

  21. Worse coin toss ever.

    Oh, I know. Poor kid looked like he had once seen a coin toss on television, but he couldn’t remember what happens between the point you catch the coin and expose the coin. My favorite part is when he closes his hand back up after first peeking at the coin.

    I’m assuming that he might be some high school kid who was attending the caucus as his first foray into civic education and was invited to toss the coin so that he would have a fun story to tell his friends, so I wouldn’t have harshed on him as much as the video narrator did.

    JVW (54fd0b)

  22. rcocean (1a839e) — 2/6/2020 @ 2:46 pm

    This is how you convert campaign funds into walking around money.

    frosty (f27e97)

  23. Incompetence or malice or both, I see the coin toss as a perfect metaphor for the Democratic Primary.

    Make America Ordered Again (07b8b7)

  24. UPDATE II: Uh-oh, Lieawatha reportedly has had — ahem, ahem — “women of color” resign from her Nevada campaign over the past several weeks because they believe they are being marginalized. I guess when your base consists of college professors and entitled middle-class feminists it can be difficult to get the hierarchies of intersectionality just right.

    JVW (54fd0b)

  25. Bloomberg. He’s (supposedly) behind in the pole, but I’d give my right eye to see one wealthy New Yorker go up against another (supposedly) wealthy New Yorker in the general election.

    Gryph (08c844)

  26. 18. I know, right? I could put together that kind of excel spreadsheet in a matter of minutes, myself.

    Gryph (08c844)

  27. 22,

    That’s really funny. Marginalized women draw the line at being marginalized by a woman who was herself marginalized that time she was a Native woman…

    Dana (aaddb1)

  28. Democratic party dumpster fire… gonna sit here and watch it burn.

    The convention is going to make Chicago ’68 look like a church social.

    CeeKay (566ba2)

  29. NH needs to make sure they get this right. They should call up FL and get some of those new voting machines

    frosty (f27e97)

  30. The results from Monday’s caucus were supposed to influence who got an invite to tomorrow’s debate. Any candidate receiving at least one delegate was to be invited, but of course Iowa still has something like 14 of its 41 total delegates left to apportion. In any case, it looks like it is the Big Four along with Sen. Klobuchar, Mr. Yang, and Mr. Steyer. As some guy on Twitter pointed out, it might be worth watching this debate if only to see Comrade Bernard and the Boy Wonder Mayor go after each other.

    JVW (54fd0b)

  31. JVW (54fd0b) — 2/6/2020 @ 1:14 pm

    – Super Tuesday is a real cluster-you-know-what. Sanders wins California, Colorado, and Vermont. Warren wins in Massachusetts, Maine, and Oklahoma. Biden wins in Alabama, Arkansas, North Carolina, and Tennessee. Buttigieg wins in Minnesota, and surprises everyone by winning very narrowly in both Texas and Virginia. At the end of the evening, the four candidates have roughly split the delegates pledged to those states.

    And where is Michael Blloomberg?

    If no one gets much above 25% you can’t really speak about a winner. They don’t need to split the states, although they’ll do that too. Anyone getting above 15% gets delegates, although that 15% threshold is probably mostly needed separately in every congressional district (maybe in Texas state senate district) There might be a few selected at the state level.

    They’ll be looking at percentage of delegates to the national convention after South Carolina, and nobody might be in the lead.

    In primary states,

    It would only get more fun from there.

    Sammy Finkelman (02a146)

  32. The Iowa Democratic party didn’t want to say what were the problems they encountered, or the name > of the app. Nevada was going to use it too on Feb 22, but backed out on Tuesday Feb 4)

    https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/nevada-democrats-won-t-use-app-caused-iowa-caucus-fiasco-n1129946

    Sammy Finkelman (02a146)

  33. This is unbelievable. I live in one of the bluest districts in the nation. Since it was created in 1913, the district has never elected a Republican. In fact, in one-fourth of the elections for over a century, the Republicans didn’t even nominate a candidate. The Democrat is always going to win. That’s just the way it is.

    I’ve never voted for a Democrat to any state or national office. City and county offices are another matter, since there are only Democrats on the ticket. In that case, I vote for the most conservative one.

    Texas Democrats are not like other Democrats. I can live with them, agree to disagree and what have you.

    I tend to vote Republican, if there is one on the ticket. Otherwise, I vote Libertarian.

    In this Trumpublican era, I won’t be voting for any Republican. That doesn’t mean I’ll vote for a Democrat. I’ll simply do the Libertarian thing and cast a protest vote.

    However, it is incredible that the state of Iowa could so screw up a caucus. Iowa (acronym for Idiot Out Walking Around) is such a small state it wouldn’t fill a county in Texas. And we have never, in all of my voting life, had these kinds of problems in elections.

    It’s very simple. You go to the polling place and cast your vote, no fuss, no muss. We don’t have an app-ocalypse. That just doesn’t happen here. We’re not stupid.

    Texas Democrats would never allow something like this to happen. Never. I may agree or disagree with their politics, but I know they don’t screw up elections.

    Gawain's Ghost (b25cd1)

  34. 31.

    DNC chair Tom Perez, holding up a rough prototype of the 7.5-inch hexagonal marking implement, which will be built and rigorously stress-tested by a new Silicon Valley business venture known as Sharpen. (satire)

    I have discovered that current pencils (for years) are incompatible with the old Boston pencil sharpeners. Maybe try pre-sharpened small “golf” pencils. The kind of pencils put into protractors in schools.

    As for Iowa, the pencils (or pens) on paper worked reasonably well, except that the people running the caucuses made mistakes.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/06/upshot/iowa-caucuses-errors-results.html

    Sammy Finkelman (8e96a4)

  35. Re: the Warren update:

    A few days ago, a few black Buttigieg workers claimed that at a televised rally they were told by staff that they couldn’t sit with their friends, they had to come on stage and sit directly behind Pete.

    I saw their tweets but now I can’t find any sign of them.

    I also can no longer find David Frum’s tweets blaming the Iowa app cluster on Trump supporters at 4chan.

    2020 gonna be off the hook!

    harkin (d6cfee)

  36. This Iowa caucus fiasco reminds me of Florida circa 2000. All that’s missing are the dimpled chads.

    Paul Montagu (ae8832)

  37. Gawain’s Ghost (b25cd1) — 2/6/2020 @ 4:53 pm

    The world is changing even for TX. It’s getting an influx of people from states with a much different kind of democrat.

    frosty (f27e97)

  38. Angelo Carusone
    @GoAngelo
    Following story about 4chan users clogging Iowa call lines, we are now seeing reporters from major outlets posting in chans, saying they are working on a story and sharing their contact info.

    If this is indication of how major outlets are gonna engage with disinfo, we’re doomed.
    __ _

    Alt Film Guide Archives
    @altfilmarchives
    ·
    Who are the reporters? Which major outlets?
    __ _

    Angelo Carusone
    @GoAngelo
    ·
    we have reached out to them privately. i don’t want to burn them here, at least not yet.
    __ _

    Corey Pein 😃🤑😐😩💀
    @coreypein
    ·
    I hope you told them to microwave their cell phones and start applying for new SSNs. Might want to move house as well.
    __ _

    Jane Peterson
    @Jpete008
    ·
    Millenials are actually going to break journalism.
    __ _

    BattleSwarm
    @BattleSwarmBlog
    ·
    “According to 4Chan user Jack Meoff…”

    _

    harkin (d6cfee)

  39. Bernie sanders wins Iowa because booty can not get black people to vote for a gay.

    asset (414039)

  40. Gawain’s Ghost (b25cd1) — 2/6/2020 @ 4:53 pm

    However, it is incredible that the state of Iowa could so screw up a caucus.

    My top choice explanation is that this was political patronage. Whether this not working or not would help or hurt any candidate couldn’t even be guessed at till late in 2019.

    But it seems like they wanted to sell this to other customers, like the Democratic Party of Nevada.

    The app developer could leave himself some freedom for interfering very late, though.

    Sammy Finkelman (8e96a4)

  41. asset (414039) — 2/7/2020 @ 12:17 am

    booty can not get black people to vote for a gay.

    He;s not really advertising that, you know. a considerable fraction of the electorate doesn’t know that. hey don;t know anything else about him either, excet that he is (now was) a mayor.

    And they may know his police force is supposed to bad in blacks.

    https://www.msnbc.com/am-joy/watch/black-police-officers-in-south-bend-say-buttigieg-never-addressed-racial-issues-when-he-was-mayor-76550725808

    https://theintercept.com/2019/12/05/pete-buttigieg-south-bend-police-chief

    SOUTH BEND’S POLICE CHIEF, CLOSE ALLY
    OF PETE BUTTIGIEG, PROMOTES OFFICER
    INVOLVED IN CONTROVERSIAL CHOKING
    DEATH

    Akela Lacy
    December 5 2019, 10:50 a.m.

    A SOUTH BEND, Indiana, police officer who was involved in the controversial 2012 death of a man in police custody was promoted in October at the recommendation of Police Chief Scott Ruszkowski, a close ally of Mayor Pete Buttigieg. Activists called on the mayor, now a leading Democratic presidential candidate, to fire Ruszkowski following a police shooting over the summer. The city’s recent promotion of officer David Johnson, Buttigieg’s South Bend critics say, is yet another example of the mayor’s failure to adequately address troubling race relations in the city he governs….

    Sammy Finkelman (8e96a4)

  42. Iowa is just a test of organization of your people on the ground. The ones who, in many cases literally, pick up your voters and carry them to the polls. We see that all in the time in Chicago with aldermanic and judicial subcircuit elections. It only works on a small scale, and it requires some strategy too — Buttigieg is leading Sanders in delegates even though he has 2,500 fewer votes.

    nk (1d9030)

  43. He;s not really advertising that, you know. a considerable fraction of the electorate doesn’t know that.

    That might last for another couple of days. I probably won’t make it to the end of the month though.

    frosty (f27e97)

  44. Without a Republican presidential primary, Trump’s 14 million from 2016 are free to Operation Chaos in the states with open primaries, voting for Trump’s preferred opponent. Of course, that would mean they could not vote for the Trump-favored Congressman or Senator. Now, if they could only spell dilemma ….

    nk (1d9030)

  45. If I was Pete and had to respond to Roseanne Broddrick(sp?) about changing her vote, I would say “Its too late and one of his biggest cheerleaders is one too”.

    urbanleftbehind (5eecdb)

  46. 43,if some of them could help put someone other than Kim Foxx over the top, I’d overlook it.

    urbanleftbehind (5eecdb)

  47. 41. nk (1d9030) — 2/7/2020 @ 7:17 am

    Iowa is just a test of organization of your people on the ground.

    Buttigieg is trying to pretend that it’s not. He’s not the first.

    The first was George McGovern (who came from a neighboring state and had practically created the Democratic Party in South Dakota tend years earlier) in 1972, and the second was Jimmy Carter in 1976.

    I don’t know much about his organization, but Jimmy Carter was campaigning for a whole year in that state, and giving an explanation for his popularity in advance to the media. I think a lot of his support came from people who would like to have shaken hands with a president (Elizabeth Warren is doing the same sort of thing this ear, with getting her picture taken with 100,000 people – the last week or two when she was stuck in the Senate, people had to settle for getting their picture taken with her dog.)

    In 1980 George Bush (the Elder) spoke about “Big Mo” but Ronald Reagan broke it with his microphone.

    And since then the media hasn’t relied too mch on that. This year, because of the delayed results (which were about the same as what the polls were saying – a near four way split – actually it turned out to be almost five way) it won’t have much affect.

    Iowa could have helped Samtorum had the correct winner been declared right away, but that’s because it was a surprise.

    Buttigieg is leading Sanders in delegates even though he has 2,500 fewer votes.

    The core reason for that is that each precinct is assigned a fixed number of delegates regardless of the turnout there. Buttigieg concentrated on places where he could qualify and maybe where some others would or could fall below viability. He probably wasn’t only working on getting people there – he probably was also working on getting votes in the second round.

    He also raised a lot of money and budgeted it. Biden needs a lot of new contributions.

    42. If he becomes a front runner.

    Sammy Finkelman (8e96a4)

  48. Jake Tapper
    @jaketapper
    ·
    A CNN analysis shows errors in the count reported by the Iowa Democratic Party. Multiple counties have reported a different number of state delegate equivalents than they were supposed to have, even though all precincts in the county have been tallied.

    _
    2020 gonna be off the hook!!
    _

    harkin (d6cfee)

  49. By the way, Biden or Bloomberg or some other “good old days” candidate is probably the LEAST likely to beat Trump. Oh, sure, #neverTrump will vote for them, but #neverTrumps are just about the only people left who want to return to the status quo ante.

    The Democrats know this. Trump demonstrated the electorate’s desire for kicking over the table. That such an assh0le could win the Presidency over a well-known Establishment standard-bearer should tell everyone that the electorate was desperate for change. For the Democrats to nominate a “safe” candidate who extols the virtues of the rejected past would be a mistake. Bob Dole, part 2. I think their more radical agenda is also a loser, but maybe not; it at least does not offer the old “normal.”

    Kevin M (8ae2cb)

  50. I’m glad Sammy mentioned McGovern. Nixon beat McGovern overwhelmingly in 1972, but it was by anti-McGovern vote, not by pro-Republican vote. The Democrats got solid majorities in both houses of Congress.

    I can see the same thing happening this November. Trump wins basically by default, like he did in 2016, because people cannot stomach the Democrat, but it does not translate to the rest of the ticket. The Democrats increase their majority in the House and take the Senate with a comfortable margin, and Trump becomes the first President to be impeached twice.

    nk (1d9030)

  51. i dunno nk, I think voters these days are far less likely to split tickets. At best the House stays D but in the mid 220 range and there is a shot, but not a certainty, in the Senate. In most eyes, Doug Jones is toast, but there could be several “layers” that could affect that one – Moore factor, Trump dislike of Sessions, if the other guy is not a Roll Tide (not sure of Byrne, but Tuberville was an Auburn coach).

    urbanleftbehind (5eecdb)

  52. 50. nk (1d9030) — 2/7/2020 @ 10:39 am

    I’m glad Sammy mentioned McGovern. Nixon beat McGovern overwhelmingly in 1972, but it was by anti-McGovern vote, not by pro-Republican vote. The Democrats got solid majorities in both houses of Congress.

    I remember Nixon’s speech on television after the election. He thought it was a pro-Nixon vote. You cold tell just by the way he appreciated it.

    The vote for Congress was independent of that. Democrats I think actually gained two seats in the Senate. In the anti-Vietnam war state of Massachusetts, McGovern won, but liberal black Republican Edward W. Brooke won re-election to the Senate. (He lost in 197 to Paul Tsongas)

    I can see the same thing happening this November. Trump wins basically by default, like he did in 2016, because people cannot stomach the Democrat, but it does not translate to the rest of the ticket. The Democrats increase their majority in the House and take the Senate with a comfortable margin, and Trump becomes the first President to be impeached twice.
    nk (1d9030) — 2/7/20 am20 @ 10:39

    Sammy Finkelman (02a146)

  53. I thought that there was a possibility that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi would hold the Articles of Impeachment over till the end of the year 2020 for use in 2021, but if anybody had that idea, they decided that was ridiculous, and that if they had a majority of the House rthen they didn’t need to save it.

    Sammy Finkelman (02a146)

  54. Everything went wrong with the Iowa caucuses:

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/09/us/politics/iowa-democratic-caucuses.html

    Incidwntly the software was first sold to Nevada.

    Sammy Finkelman (8e96a4)


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