Patterico's Pontifications

1/28/2020

Checking-in on Iowa and New Hampshire

Filed under: General — JVW @ 12:10 pm



[guest post by JVW]

We are now inside of one week away from the Iowa Caucuses, which take place next Monday, February 3, to be followed eight days later by the first primary in New Hampshire. Because we obsess way more than we ought to over the votes of the thirty-first and forty-first most populous states in the Union, also the sixth and fourth whitest states respectively, pollsters are busy trying to determine how each race is shaping up.

According to rules as laid out by the party, Democrat candidates need to win at least a 15 percent share of a primary or caucus vote in order to receive pledged delegates. This becomes a fairly high threshold in a field that will feature at least ten candidates from which to choose. But the campaign of Elizabeth Warren has to be concerned that Lyin’ Liz, Fauxcahontas, Lieawatha, etc., now registers under that magic 15% level in an average of polls taken over the past two weeks. As recently as the beginning of November, she was leading the Iowa polls with over 20% of support; now she is ranked fourth among the candidates, and her numbers are falling while those of Senator Amy Klobuchar are on the rise. A fifth place finish in Iowa would be dreadful for the Warren campaign, a rebuke from which she might not be able to recover.

And the news is no better coming from New Hampshire, a neighboring state to Sen. Warren’s adopted state of Massachusetts where it is clear that she needs a strong showing (top three, at the very least) to convince us that she has a viable path to the nomination. The latest polls there also show her below the 15% threshold and falling, while her latest self-chosen nemesis Bernard Sanders is surging. She led in that state as recently as the week before Thanksgiving, but saw a rapid drop in her numbers, corresponding to the moment that her ridiculously fanciful health care plans started undergoing close scrutiny.

Iowa only accounts for 41 pledged delegates to the Democrat’s national convention and New Hampshire sends a mere 24, so considering that the Democrats will have 3,979 total pledged delegates, getting shut out in those two states doesn’t automatically end her candidacy. Still, given the fact that the Democrat Party in both Iowa and New Hampshire are dominated by white progressives, generally college-educated and solidly middle class, and given the fact that Elizabeth Warren is very well-known in New Hampshire since Boston media dominates the Granite State, emerging from the first two contests with zero pledged delegates would be a humiliation that would no doubt have party regulars questioning whether she had any real shot at the nomination. Her ability to raise funds and win endorsements would almost certainly be affected. Nor does the short-term outlook appear particularly promising for America’s “gifted storyteller,” as she lags in Nevada and South Carolina, the next two primaries on the calendar and two states where minority voters have a huge say in Democrat politics.

Of course polls are often unreliable and they do tend to flux pretty widely from month to month, even week to week. If Sen. Warren finishes strong in Iowa, say with 20% of the vote and within spitting distance of Joe Biden and Bernard Sanders, she could ride the momentum to a top two finish in New Hampshire. This might give her breathing room to downplay Nevada’s 36 pledged delegates and South Carolina’s 54, and instead concentrate on an impressive performance in California (415) and Texas (228), both of which have early primaries this year. Should the Sanders campaign have another set back such as a new health concern or an off-the-cuff salute to the Venezuelan economy, she might benefit from disillusioned Bernie Babes and even some Bros who look for the next-best alternative for socialist utopia. If the Klobuchar campaign stalls, or if the bourgeois urban progressives who support Tom Steyer and Michael Bloomberg abandon those mega-wealthy boutique candidates and flock to the Honest Injun, perhaps she will still be able to make a run of it.

But as for me, I hope that on Lincoln’s Birthday I am drafting a post on the well-deserved end to her insipid campaign.

– JVW

47 Responses to “Checking-in on Iowa and New Hampshire”

  1. “Honest Injun.” Who do I think I am to be getting away with that?

    JVW (54fd0b)

  2. A couple of other things that seem newsworthy:

    That US E-11 shot down in Afghanistan and Iran claiming CIA biggie taken out.

    Cops clubbing rioting firefighters in France.

    harkin (d6cfee)

  3. Some Dems really don’t want Bernie:

    Josh Kraushaar
    @HotlineJosh
    Bloomberg supporter Steve Ratner said on MSNBC this am that Bloomberg’s goal wasn’t to win a majority of delegates, but to stop Sanders from doing so.

    _

    harkin (d6cfee)

  4. Bad news never trumpers obama may come out against bernie for being a socialist now that he is rich. If he does it will teae democrat party apart just like 2016 as bernie bros vote third party, write in bernie, stay home or vote trump as 14% did in 2016. Bernie supporters don like trump ;but hate democrat corporate establishment stooges like clinton/biden.

    asset (e49f10)

  5. 🔥A NobodyforBernie2020🔥VoteForBernie🔥
    @BernForBernie20
    ·
    Why did Elizabeth Warren pivot if there’s no diff?

    For decades, she said her dad was a maintenance man but now that she’s running for prez, she thinks janitor sounds more humble–much like she tries to steal the valor of being a public school teacher–a job she did for 1 yr.
    __ _

    James O’Keefe
    @JamesOKeefeIII
    ·
    BREAKING:
    @BernieSanders
    South Carolina Field Organizer “Do we just dissolve the Senate, House of Representatives, the Judicial Branch, and have somebody like Bernie Sanders and a cabinet of people make all decisions for the climate?” –
    __ _

    James O’Keefe
    @JamesOKeefeIII
    ·
    “…After we abolish landlords, we don’t have to kill them, that’s my feeling…” – Mason Baird (
    @bigbeetlebite
    ), paid SC Sanders staffer

    WaPo’s
    @daveweigel
    : statements not newsworthy because staffers tweeted out what they’re on video saying.

    *Staffers lock all their accounts*
    _

    2020 gonna be off the hook

    harkin (d6cfee)

  6. Because we obsess way more than we ought to over the votes of the thirty-first and forty-first most populous states in the Union,

    I don’t know if anybody has connected these two things, but I think that because politicians pay so much attention to them, they’ve both become swing states, and are not too typical of the nation or any other state.

    Sammy Finkelman (083d4c)

  7. Democrat candidates need to win at least a 15 percent share of a primary or caucus vote

    It;s not a statewide vote. It;s 15% in each precinct. If a candidate gets 15% they can select delegates to the next higher level. If a candidate falls below the threshhold, the people i it can join another group

    I think they take a straw poll, and also report delegate equivalents (which robably assume no switches or dropouts at higher levels)

    Even in primary states, in the Democratic party some delegates are selected at the Congressional district or maybe State senate level, and much less statewide.

    hey won;t be totaling up committed delegates until after the first four states (Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina) have chosen.

    If the Klobuchar campaign stalls

    It has to take off. Where it is now, is no good.

    Michael Bloomberg plans to get serious after the first four states. His hopes have to rest on split field or on Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth warren surging and Joe Biden fading. Mayor Pete has some hopes.

    Sammy Finkelman (083d4c)

  8. Odd anyone would do anything so potentially important the day after the Super Bowl. And do so probably hung over and filled with wings and chili. No thanks.

    Bugg (47841b)

  9. 4- Obama,he, the preeminent voice of the common man, will leave the comfort of the DC mansion, the Honolulu condo, the Chicago mansion, the new oceanfront estate on the Vineyard, or his richly-appointed LA Netflix office? We all pray the rising seas do not lay waste to The One’s precious beach front. Praise be upon him!

    Sanders is only saying the exact nonsense the Left has said they believed for decades. But what Obama and the Dem establishment recognize is he would upset their precious apple cart. You cannot shake down and fleece the goose of corporate America if there’s no longer any golden eggs.

    Bugg (47841b)

  10. “ I don’t know if anybody has connected these two things, but I think that because politicians pay so much attention to them, they’ve both become swing states, and are not too typical of the nation or any other state.”

    They used to be very much like small towns in most states. And the small town venues they use to hold meet and greets or whatever you call them are very good at displaying the candidates up close and halfway personal.

    I wonder how long they’ll last.

    harkin (d6cfee)

  11. 8. Well, it’s approximately a full 24 hours after the Super Bowl.

    Does anyone know how it was other years? The date’s been moved around a little.(of the Iowa caucuses)

    Sammy Finkelman (02a146)

  12. In the same spirit I was going, “Not Trump, not Trump, not Trump, please not Trump” four years ago, might I say, “Not Bernie, not Bernie, not Bernie, please not Bernie.”

    Nic (896fdf)

  13. The thing about the 15% threshold, is that even before this is counted, the people standing in the smallest groups for the least successful candidates can see that they are under-count, and they tend to migrate to their second-favorite option that’s above or close to 15%. So someone in 4th place, as the first choice of 12% of caucus-goers, has a very good chance to get above the 15% threshold, given how many trailing candidates there are, provided she has at least some appeal to fans of the bottom-tier candidate(s).

    David Pittelli (7d543e)

  14. In the same spirit I was going, “Not Trump, not Trump, not Trump, please not Trump” four years ago, might I say, “Not Bernie, not Bernie, not Bernie, please not Bernie.”

    Nic (896fdf) — 1/28/2020 @ 6:06 pm

    Yeah, no kidding.

    I don’t vote in democrat primaries but I’m considering it.

    Dustin (b8d6d1)

  15. You might as well. Really, probably everyone who has safe incumbents should. If you already know who you are going to get on the R ticket (and/or that whoever it is will be useless), you might as well try to influence the Dem one.

    Nic (896fdf)

  16. (depending on how voting goes in your state)

    Nic (896fdf)

  17. If you want to throw the democratic party into confusion vote tulsi gabbard in primary. (in some states you will have to register as democrat for a few days)

    asset (36a814)

  18. Is the party of FDR, Truman, JFK, Clinton and Obama (among others) really going to nominate as its presidential candidate, *someone who isn’t even a member of its party*?

    Strange days indeed.

    B.A. DuBois (80f588)

  19. 18. It shouldn’t surprise you. After all, Republicans accepted Trump.

    Gryph (08c844)

  20. After all, Republicans accepted Trump.

    Sacrificed everything the party stood for to do it, too.

    Dave (1bb933)

  21. *claimed to stand for

    Dave (1bb933)

  22. It looks a lot like Bernie will be the nominee. I have mixed feelings about it. I have a visceral affection for him. His extremist tendencies will be tempered by Congress.

    I did hear Bernie say he would legalize marijuana by exec order. I admit I was disappointed, not because I think it shouldn’t be legal but because doing things by exec order is the new normal now and it’s going to get worse. Eventually we are going to get a Pres who wants to be King. Congress should have nipped it in the bud a long time ago.

    JRH (52aed3)

  23. All Bernie has to do for me is mimic William Henry Harrison and sneak Tulsi in.

    urbanleftbehind (5eecdb)

  24. sneak her in where? :p

    JRH (52aed3)

  25. I can’t accept a Bernie administration. We live in a time where people talk about outlawing single family housing, speech codes, radical spending programs like forgiveness of college debt.

    I worry that in the post Bush/Obama/Trump era, with EOs being how laws seem to be made, he could easily find a way to do some really radical stuff that encouraged living irresponsibly in hopes the taxpayer will bail you out.

    Trump and Bernie are symptoms of how our nation is defined more by opposition to rule by the opposing party than they are by any shared ideals. Both are absurd. Secession, or a constitutional convention to greatly reduce the role of the Presidency, returning Senators to state selection, massive increase in House reps (who work from home and vote electronically), term limits, and a balanced budget amendment. Otherwise we keep jerking the wheel like we’re about to go over a cliff politically.

    Dustin (fa0d96)

  26. returning Senators to state selection

    Other than nostalgia, why is this something we should support?

    Dave (1bb933)

  27. Dave,

    The Senate should be less susceptible to the political winds, to partisan pressure, and to DC’s culture. We have a democratically elected House (that should be yet more democratic) and bring up ideas whenever. The Senators should be freed from the pressures of public sentiment. This change needs to go along with term limits. 2 terms at most… These Lindsey Graham institutions lead to so much backscratching and perverse loyalties.

    Historically, this worked really well except state legislatures would leave the seats vacant. I think that old problem simply wouldn’t happen today. I can’t imagine modern politicians passing up on the power of selecting a Senator.

    Look at these cowards in the Senate today, purely motivated by public opinion. It’s not functional.

    Dustin (f9dd4d)

  28. 25. Dustin (fa0d96) — 1/29/2020 @ 6:58 am

    We live in a time where people talk about outlawing single family housing,

    Not really that. I think what they talk about is localities outlawing building new single family housing.

    What they do talk about is retrofitting all current buildings so as to conserve energy = reduce carbon dioxode emissions increase indoor air pollution and exposure to radon.

    speech codes,

    Very bad, even if not enforced by law in any way.

    radical spending programs like forgiveness of college debt.

    That’s a mess

    A college degree now costs, on average,

    https://www.worth.com/college-degrees-used-to-make-families-wealthier-thats-no-longer-true

    https://files.stlouisfed.org/files/htdocs/publications/review/2019/10/15/is-college-still-worth-it-the-new-calculus-of-falling-returns.pdf

    14 times what it did in 1978 (compared to consumer prices, which are four times as high, therefore, in real terms college costs 3 1.2 times as much as it did 40 years ago. And at that time government aid was grants; about 1990 it became predominently loans.

    While college graduates still earn much more than non college graduates (and that’s possibly confusing cause and effect) the wealth premium has dropped tremendously, and even reversed itself among African Americans.

    This debt needs to be liquidated but possibly it can be done through bankruptcy laws ans tax deductions. And steps shoulld be taken to prevent this from being accunulated in the future.

    Like:

    o Separation of grading from teaching.

    o No charge for courses that students do not pass.

    o Promotion of tutoring and online learning (with access to libraries)

    o Some more use of endowments.

    o Free tuition in fields where the public will wind p paying anyway, but with interest,, like medical school.

    Sammy Finkelman (083d4c)

  29. 27. Dustin (f9dd4d) — 1/29/2020 @ 7:25 am

    Historically, this worked really well except state legislatures would leave the seats vacant.

    They also took bribes. Corruption in state legislators was a big problem after the Civil War.

    Sammy Finkelman (083d4c)

  30. Not sure I see it.

    Senators chosen by the legislature would be even more beholden to the party establishment and unwilling to step out of line.

    Dave (1bb933)

  31. 18. B.A. DuBois (80f588) — 1/29/2020 @ 5:34 am

    Is the party of FDR, Truman, JFK, Clinton and Obama (among others) really going to nominate as its presidential candidate, *someone who isn’t even a member of its party*?

    I think Bernie sanders joined in 2016, and anyway he’s member of the Democratic caucus in the Senate.

    And they did nominate a person who was not a member of their party in 1872.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Horace_Greeley_1872_presidential_campaign

    Sammy Finkelman (083d4c)

  32. 29. Corruption in state legislatures was a major reason that Jim Crow laws existed in the first place — almost exclusively in Democrat havens.

    Gryph (08c844)

  33. 30. It’s what our founding fathers intended. Do you think things have gotten better or worse since it changed?

    Gryph (08c844)

  34. Mr. Smith Goes To Washington alla da time.

    nk (1d9030)

  35. This debt needs to be liquidated but possibly it can be done through bankruptcy laws ans tax deductions. And steps shoulld be taken to prevent this from being accunulated in the future.

    I disagree. If you borrow money you should pay it back. The USA isn’t an endless piggy bank no matter how many politicians promise to solve our problems. There are an awful lot of students living beyond their means hoping that Bernie pays them for their vote. There are an awful lot of students shacking up with 4 roommates, eating ramen, and going to the library to study because that’s the only place where they have enough space and quiet to do it. It is unfair to steal from the savers to pay the spenders, and this would lead to much worse things.

    The solution is to stop subsidizing the debt unless there’s a realistic plan to repay. English degree from low level school with mediocre grades? That should mean much higher interest rates. Engineering degree and evidence of work ethic? I’d be happy with very low interest. Basically a business plan.

    I agree with many of your proposals, like lower cost for more needed fields and online programs. I have been associated with higher education for 20 years and though I love a great professor, gorgeous library, grassy mall, reading under a tree, the truth is that this stuff is expensive and should be preserved for a small number of excellent schools. The rest of us should be able to get an education online, with vastly more uniform degree plans and proctors located all over the country for tough tests (many degrees are far too easy to obtain academically, yet far too difficult on a practical level in various boring ways).

    Academia is a powerful political entity. Rick Perry tried to get Texas a $10k degree program. So long as it’s tough academically, it’s just as good for the state as its good public universities.

    Dustin (f9dd4d)

  36. Senators chosen by the legislature would be even more beholden to the party establishment and unwilling to step out of line.

    Dave (1bb933) — 1/29/2020 @ 7:47 am

    Why would a Senator with a term limit, chosen by a legislative process, be more beholden to a political party than, say Lindsey Graham is today? The perfect is the enemy of the good, hence we never seem to enact these reforms (term limits is the big one).

    Dustin (f9dd4d)

  37. Repeal the 16th!

    Gryph (08c844)

  38. Dustin (f9dd4d) — 1/29/2020 @ 8:00 am

    I would like to see more federalism and less happening at the national level. I’m not smart enough to know what will get me what I want but I’m willing to consider a return to senators chosen by the legislature if I thought it would encourage the idea of senators as representatives of their states first and foremost rather than being US senators.

    I’m not sold on term limits though. If my senator is an effective representative of my state I think they can keep going back. I’m amenable to the idea that seniority and experience can be good things. My concern with term limits is that it would bury the person in the party. You’d end up with an opaque party machine just choosing figureheads as needed.

    I’m really not sold yet on making any changes here though since I’m not sure where the real problem is, which means I don’t know what will fix it.

    frosty (f27e97)

  39. Gryph (08c844) — 1/29/2020 @ 8:07 am

    Hmm. Your ideas are intriguing to me, and I wish to subscribe to your newsletter.

    frosty (f27e97)

  40. 39. No newsletter, Frosty. I’m just a voice crying out from the wilderness who would like to see things be more as our founding fathers intended them to be rather than less, which is the direction we have been going in for at least five generations. We may never get rid of parties entirely, but we can lessen the influence of the aparatchiks.

    Gryph (08c844)

  41. Dustin (f9dd4d) — 1/29/2020 @ 7:58 am

    There are an awful lot of students living beyond their means hoping that Bernie pays them for their vote.

    It hasn’t gone on log enough for that.

    College debt only became a big issue in 2011, when some people attributed “Occupy Wall Street” to students or recent graduates unhappy with student loan debt.

    And on the other hand it’s not just Bernie. Congress enacted before a debt forgiveness program of a person took certain jobs, but it actually was full of ways to be disqualified and very few people have gotten it.

    But again, maybe his proposals on student loan debt forgiveness does explain why Bernie has such strong support among younger voters.

    There are an awful lot of students shacking up with 4 roommates, eating ramen, and going to the library to study because that’s the only place where they have enough space and quiet to do it. It is unfair to steal from the savers to pay the spenders, and this would lead to much worse things.

    But that applies to all charity.

    The solution is to stop subsidizing the debt unless there’s a realistic plan to repay. English degree from low level school with mediocre grades? That should mean much higher interest rates. Engineering degree and evidence of work ethic? I’d be happy with very low interest. Basically a business plan.

    The worst situation is people who drop out of college.

    In any case, debt forgiveness or no debt forgiveness, steps should be taken to prevent this kind pf debt from being accumulated in the future.

    Two ideas I had were:

    o Separation of grading from teaching.

    o No charge for courses that students do not pass.

    (You probably need them both together)

    Academia is a powerful political entity. Rick Perry tried to get Texas a $10k degree program. So long as it’s tough academically, it’s just as good for the state as its good public universities.

    There are people who have certan jobs who don’t like that.

    Sammy Finkelman (083d4c)

  42. 32. Gryph (08c844) — 1/29/2020 @ 7:53 am

    Corruption in state legislatures was a major reason that Jim Crow laws existed in the first place — almost exclusively in Democrat havens.

    Well, when you limit the right to vote, you do get some corruption also.

    Sammy Finkelman (083d4c)

  43. Do you think things have gotten better or worse since it changed?

    Are you joking?

    Things have gotten immeasurably better since 1913.

    Blacks can vote without being bull-whipped or lynched.

    Women can vote.

    And we’re all filthy, filthy rich.

    Dave (1bb933)

  44. 43. In some ways, they have gotten better…but as a whole, I don’t believe for a second that we’re freer now than we were before the 16th and 17th amendments were passed. Quite to the contrary, we’re doing things with the Federal Government our founding fathers explicitly forbade, and with good reason.

    Gryph (08c844)

  45. This website had many details (maybe all details) every Presidential election on primaries caucuses and delegate selection rules

    http://www.thegreenpapers.com

    Right now:

    Major Party National Conventions

    3 days until Sat 1 Feb – Kansas Republican State Convention

    5 days until Mon 3 Feb – Iowa Democratic Precinct Caucuses · Iowa Republican Precinct Caucuses

    13 days until Tue 11 Feb – New Hampshire Democratic Primary · New Hampshire Republican Primary

    24 days until Sat 22 Feb – Nevada Democratic Precinct Viability Caucuses · Nevada Republican Alternative Presidential Preference Poll

    166 days until Mon 13 Jul – 48th Democratic National Convention
    208 days until Mon 24 Aug – 42nd Republican National Convention

    Upcoming primary/special elections for Congress:

    6 days until Tue 4 Feb – Maryland House CD 7 Special Primary

    20 days until Tue 18 Feb – Wisconsin House CD 7 Special General Election

    34 days until Tue 3 Mar – Alabama Primary · Arkansas Primary · California Primary and Special Election House CD 25 · North Carolina Primary · Texas Primary

    41 days until Tue 10 Mar – Mississippi Primary

    Sammy Finkelman (02a146)

  46. @44 I am freer now. I can vote. I can have my own bank account and credit and participate in the economy in my own name, and work any job I want and can qualify for. Not married, I can be a full and independent participant in society and if I was married I could be a full and independent participant in society. I am not expected to bear child after child after child and stay home and take care of all 10 of them. My male relatives may not beat me and expect to have it chalked up to being “a domestic situation.” Nobody can lock me in a mental institution for making decisions that do not match the decisions my relatives would prefer I make. If I were married and things went wrong, I could divorce my spouse and live a full, socially acceptable, independent life. I am freer. Most minority people are freer. Most gay people are freer. Significantly greater than 50% of society is freer. Far far far freer.

    Nic (896fdf)

  47. https://www.tabletmag.com/jewish-news-and-politics/297961/weekend-at-bernies

    The problem with Bernie Sanders isn’t Bernie Sanders. It’s the way that the 78-year-old socialist, who has already suffered one heart attack on the campaign trail, is being used by an assortment of anti-Semitic frauds and weirdos who have glommed onto his campaign, using Uncle Bernie like an ATM that dispenses free passes for anti-Semitic bigotry (and campaign cash).

    That may be true, but no true anti-semite would support Bernie Sanders, so whatever these people are is, it’s fake. Even their anti-semitism is fake.

    Sammy Finkelman (02a146)


Powered by WordPress.

Page loaded in: 0.2679 secs.