Patterico's Pontifications

1/8/2020

Ukrainian Airplane Crashes Near Tehran, No Survivors

Filed under: General — Dana @ 6:22 am



[guest post by Dana]

From the AP:

A Ukrainian passenger jet carrying 176 people crashed on Wednesday, just minutes after taking off from the Iranian capital’s main airport, turning farmland on the outskirts of Tehran into fields of flaming debris and killing all on board.

The crash of Ukraine International Airlines came hours after Iran launched a ballistic missile attack on Iraqi bases housing U.S. soldiers, but Iranian officials said they suspected a mechanical issue brought down the 3½-year-old Boeing 737-800 aircraft. Ukrainian officials initially agreed, but later backed away and declined to offer a cause while the investigation is ongoing.

The plane carried 167 passengers and nine crew members from different nations. Ukraine’s foreign minister, Vadym Prystaiko, said that there were 82 Iranians, 63 Canadians and 11 Ukrainians on board — the Ukrainian nationals included two passengers and the nine crew. There were also 10 Swedish, four Afghan, three German and three British nationals, he said.

According to the BBC, Ukrainian officials deleted their statement blaming engine failure for the crash, saying that any initial reporting about the cause of the accident prior to an investigation were unofficial. Further, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that “criminal proceedings” would be opened into the crash.

More on Iran’s reaction to the crash:

Iranian media blamed technical problems and quoted an aviation official who said no emergency had been declared.

In a sign of the potential difficulties facing crash investigators, the head of Iran’s civil aviation organisation was quoted as saying the Ukrainian plane’s black box would not be handed over, either to Boeing or the Americans.

Ali Abedzadeh said “terrorism” had played no role in the crash, Iran’s conservative Mehr news agency reported. Another official, Qasem Biniaz, blamed an engine fire. “Had the accident happened due to a missile strike, the plane would have exploded in the air,” he told the IRNA news agency.

The plane was reported to have gone through scheduled maintenance on Monday.

“It was one of the best planes we had, with an amazing, reliable crew,” the airline’s president, Yevhen Dykhne, said at a briefing[.]

A note about the recovered black boxes:

Iran’s aviation authority said it would not hand over to Americans the recovered black boxes…”We will not give the black boxes to the manufacturer (Boeing) and the Americans,” Iran Civil Aviation Organisation head Ali Abedzadeh said…”It’s not yet clear which country the black box will go to for the investigation,” he added.

(Cross-posted at The Jury Talks Back.)

–Dana

48 Responses to “Ukrainian Airplane Crashes Near Tehran, No Survivors”

  1. Good morning.

    Dana (643cd6)

  2. Seeing lots of mixed reports. Will wait before drawing any conclusions.

    NJRob (4d595c)

  3. Most of them were students going back to school after winter break. For them, we should mourn, and for their families.

    nk (dbc370)

  4. ADS-B signals ended abruptly at 8,000 ft. No “mechanical” problem can shut down ADS-B, pretty much requires full loss of power (both generators and battery backup) or massive structural failure.

    I vote for massive structural failure.

    David Jay (87b334)

  5. The Iranians were preparing to defend themselves from an air strike. They have a considerable air defense system and tons of radar. I imagine a lot of stuff was being turned on that usually is on standby.

    Due to sanctions until 2015, Iran has been attempting to make their own S-300 SAMs that combine Russian technology with Iranian manufacturing, and they manufacture their own phased array radar and (copies of American SM-1) missiles. Even the Russian stuff is prone to mistakes and is probably much more reliable than Iranian attempts to reverse engineer. The Iranian system tracks up to 60 aircraft at a time and fires from up to 200 km away.

    The USA is fortunate enough to have tested its equipment extensively, and trained its operators, most of whom have years of experience in combat, and even they have accidentally shot at the wrong thing.

    It’s just speculation, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they shot down the plane. I bet we find out one way or the other pretty soon.

    Dustin (d9d65a)

  6. Iran still uses some of the American SAMs they bought years ago, and in the Iran Iraq war, those missiles shot down a lot of Iranian aircraft on accident. On Sept 21, 1980, when Iran launched a massive airstrike on Iraq, Iranian air defense forces were reportedly in such a “panic” that they shot down several of the Iranian planes that were returning. Friendly fire accounted for 100% of Iran’s losses of aircraft that day. The joke (and statistical reality) was that Iranian aircraft were safer bombing Iraq than they were flying back home in Iran. Similarly, the Iranian air force’s F-14s were constantly vectored to intercept the Iranian air force.

    In one of these incidents in late October 1980, an unknown bogey showed up on my F-14’s radar as I was flying a [combat air patrol] sortie west of Dezful air base in the southwest of Iran. The unknown aircraft was 120 miles to the west of my position and the [radio identification] system was unable to tell me whether this bird was friendly or foe.
    “Therefore I relayed its speed, heading and altitude to two different [ground-control-intercept] radars to re-verify its status. Both GCI controllers declared it as a hostile/bandit aircraft and ordered us to engage it. My [radar-intercept officer] 1st. Lt. Y. Ahmadi and I prepared the systems for a [beyond-visual-range] engagement while planning for a possible re-attacks in case the missile missed.
    “Around 70 miles to the target, I realized this bandit has been keeping a steady speed and 500 feet of altitude all along. This fact alone made me contact the GCI stations once again to get further confirmation. The response was the same. ‘It is a bandit. You are authorized to kill.’ While I could have launched an AIM-54 Phoenix at the low flying bandit, its speed and altitude caused me to hesitate. I wanted to get a [visual] I.D. on it, as well.
    “My RIO protested. I reasoned that this is not a moment we should be wasting an expensive Phoenix on an already dead bird. I said, ‘Let’s gun him down.’
    “About 12 to 15 miles out, I could see the bandit as it was flying close to the side of the mountains. I could not make the type of the aircraft but its camouflage paint was visible. A wide turn put me right behind it and we got to about eight miles when I suddenly yelled at my RIO over the intercom. ‘Do not touch anything. This is one of our F-4s.’

    Obviously friendly fire isn’t unique to Iran but I can only imagine they were excitable yesterday.

    Dustin (d9d65a)

  7. Given the timing and the almost immediate official Iranian response of “technical problems”, I’m becoming more and more convinced that this is similar to the Iran Air Flight 655 incident but, in this case, the Iranian military thought that the commercial airliner was actually a US jet fighter and shot it down.

    Paul Montagu (e1b5a7)

  8. This has not been a very good year for Boeing.

    Gawain's Ghost (b25cd1)

  9. @8. It’s a fairly new aircraft capable of flying w/one engine out. Given no mayday call and the hostile environment there at the time, it’s fair to consider an external event but pilot error is often in the chain of events. In addition, the region is festooned w/radar and surveillance from ground installations– and from space- so if a missile hit is involved there should be a radar tracing someplace.

    Still, the recent bugs surfacing w/737 fly-by-wire systems may be a factor as well w/that model aircraft. The ‘black boxes’ could reveal much but Iran is so far failing to release them for analysis. Initial images of the debris show damage similar to previous civilian airliners brought down by missile. Thank Donald: the dead may end up being a victims of Trump’s stupidity.

    But it’s definitely time for Nikki to hit the silk.

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  10. but, in this case, the Iranian military thought that the commercial airliner was actually a US jet fighter and shot it down.

    Paul Montagu (e1b5a7) — 1/8/2020 @ 10:39 am

    Iran scrambled fighters. Speculation last night was that they were actually going into Iraq but that seems incorrect, so the reason for that is unexplained. They may have been attempting to intercept a threat.

    I think they thought this 737 was a large drone bomber like a Global Hawk. They are very roughly similar in size and speed. I agree with DCSCA. Civilian deaths from a screwed up response from a panicked Iran is collateral damage to the airstrike to take out Soleimani. I’m sure the buck stops anywhere but Trump’s desk.

    Dustin (d9d65a)

  11. Fear will do that.
    In the USA we expect counter terror response to be primarily pre-emptive and it is.
    The lack of terror in our streets is because we have great preemptive abilities.
    Of course the flip side is people who want to blame the preemptive work for the terrorism… usually for political reasons.

    Here is the take of several Israelis at an Israeli think tank on the preemptive strike
    https://besacenter.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/168-The-Soleimani-Killing-Initial-Assessments.pdf

    Note their take on media, and others who oppose the President reflexively

    steveg (354706)

  12. The blood is on the hands of the fools in Iran that could not handle their assignment during Operation Handbags

    steveg (354706)

  13. “… we have great preemptive abilities.” Except we don’t. See September 11, 2001 for details.

    Uh, Israelis live in perpetual fear and require an Iron Dome just to get some sleep. Something BTW, sorely lacking yesterday over the Al-Assad military facility.

    Though neocons may wish it so, Americans do not wish to live like Israelis.

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  14. @12. 1953. Neocons will learn the hard way history does not begin in 1979.

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  15. @10. Not so sure about the Global Hawk speculation, though the aircraft share similar scale. Comparison of radar signatures would be revealing. The 737 wasn’t airborne very long; consider the altitude and location- in its climb not long after rotation out of the Tehran Aerodrome air space and in the immediate traffic pattern to exit the area. A GH would be orbiting at a much higher altitude, away from the commercial air traffic patterns. A proxy group aware of English speaking passengers aboard and mistaking the Canadians for Americans could be a reach as well– but it is possible. Even w/o a radar track, -military or civil- the boxes and the condition of the debris should tell the story.

    Aircraft investigators are very ‘Columbo’: apolitical, and very, very good at reaching conclusive cause, if only to improve the safety of civil aviation. And they’ll tell you that ‘accidents’ are rarely due to a single event but a chain of events. It’s wrong to speculate this early, but the abrupt end to this flight may suggest it was no ‘accident.’ If allowed, they’ll find out.

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  16. Comparison of radar signatures would be revealing.

    I certainly am no expert but I have to imagine the Global Hawk was designed with minimizing its radar profile, and coated in whatever surfaces minimize its radar reflection. The 737, of course, was designed for fuel efficiency.

    But some of the SAMs Iran is using they bought from the USA in the 1960s, some they reverse engineered from Russian and American tech before the trade embargoes were lifted. Do these systems do a great job distinguishing beyond general shape and size? I don’t know, but like I mentioned before, Iran shot down a lot of Iranians in the Iran/Iraq war.

    You make a good point as far as the 737 recently taking off, which is different from a bombing run. I have no good answer for that discrepancy.

    Dustin (d9d65a)

  17. There is a chance the Mossad did it if it blew up with no missile launched (I’m sure the US was watching for launches, so there may be video). Other countries may have done it too, but if Iran was trying to protect human assets by spiriting them out of immediate danger….

    It seems far fetched to me because the repercussions of being found out would be extreme, but there is a small chance

    steveg (354706)

  18. Iraq and American military reporting they have evidence of missile launch from Iranian AA immediately before the plane was destroyed.

    NJRob (4d595c)

  19. I’m sure the US was jamming and spoofing. US was probably also actively using a stable platform above Iran to laser blind the seekers on modernized missiles.

    In other words, the US might have thrown a missile off course as well. If using a laser, you could throw a missile off course, but if the laser loses contact with the seeker head and the missile suddenly sees a “target”… I don’t know… depends on how good the seeker is.

    steveg (354706)

  20. Per NBC News: ‘U.S. sources say evidence suggests Ukrainian plane shot down in Iran.’

    As noted in #9: ‘Thank Donald: the dead may end up being a victims of Trump’s stupidity.’ The fun and game are over: the idiotic international decisions being made by President Jerkoff is now getting people killed.

    Make no mistake about it: Donald Trump’s impetuous decision to unnecessarily drone assassinate one dude with zero evidence of ‘imminent threat’ made public to the American people tosubstantiate his actions in our name has led to this tragedy.

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  21. There is a chance the Mossad did it

    MAGA

    Dustin (d9d65a)

  22. I humbly suggest that if anybody got those people on that airplane killed, it was murderous thugs with beards and anti-aircraft missiles.

    nk (dbc370)

  23. not even President Trump could save those poor people

    happyfeet (8af6bf)

  24. Happy New Year, happyfeet!

    nk (dbc370)

  25. nk’s right that Iran shouldn’t play around like they are a sophisticated military if they aren’t going to read the manual to their toys.

    but Trump shouldn’t play like he’s a brilliant strategist either.

    Dustin (d9d65a)

  26. I have no idea if Trump is a strategist — that can be pretty broad — but he’s obviously no tactician.

    Kevin M (19357e)

  27. Considering that the US shot down an airliner by accident during similar tension, I’d keep the finger-pointing to a minimum myself.

    Kevin M (19357e)

  28. But it’s definitely time for Nikki to hit the silk.

    Why? Just because management had its head up its ass? If you’ve ever sat on a Board you’d know that management never brings its dirty laundry to the meetings.

    Besides, I’ve had enough of politicians who throw everyone under the bus when they fear the slightest bit of taint.

    Kevin M (19357e)

  29. #20. What a hateful knee-jerk of a comment.

    Kevin M (19357e)

  30. It seems that “Blame America First!” is still alive and well.

    Kevin M (19357e)

  31. @27. They’re sophisticated enough to successfully launch a ballistic missile attack and target-avoid while backchannelling to the targets themselves what they’re going to do and to gt out f the way.

    The idiotic, imbecilic, asinine, incredibly neoconic fit-of-pique decision last Friday by President Jerkoff to drone assassinate one guy w/o any valid evidence of ‘imminent threat’ made public to the American people to substantiate his act in our name has led directly to the tragic deaths of 167 innocent, non-combatant civilians on that plane.

    The stupid sunnuvb-tch got them killed just as surely as if he shot them all on Fifth Avenue.

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  32. Kevin M (19357e) — 1/9/2020 @ 11:08 am

    Maybe, but it looks like, for whatever reason, the US at this point has sente wrt Iran.

    frosty (f27e97)

  33. @31. Tell that to the dead the idiot Trump got killed.

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  34. @30. Why? Because she is management now, wants a political career again later and not held as part of the parties responsible for greenlighting poor decision making. Use your head: it wasn’t Nixon’s war either– until it was.

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  35. @32. Trump is not America; had the imbecile not popped that dude last Friday, those 176 civilians who were shot out of the sky on Tuesday would still be alive.

    End of story.

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  36. Considering that the US shot down an airliner by accident during similar tension, I’d keep the finger-pointing to a minimum myself.

    Kevin M (19357e) — 1/9/2020 @ 11:13 am

    You raise a very fair point.

    When we did that it was a huge surprise that we learned from. We killed 66 children. The captain was apparently on the warpath for a few weeks, and was misinformed that the plane was climbing (he was told it was diving). We misidentified an Airbus as an F-14, even though the plane was transmitting its civilian IFF and behaving like a commercial plane. Reagan wrote Iran to express regret. You read about it from many American sources, and of course we are well aware and talk about it, being part of a free society that openly criticizes our government’s mistakes.

    Iran’s shot down the wrong plane a bunch of times and the difference in how our governments handle reality are why we make these mistakes rarely and why society trusts us more than Iran.

    Of course, this is why it’s so dangerous to fall into any political loyalty traps, such as partisanship. Trump’s strategy with Iran and foreign policy is obviously a mess. No one can even articulate it, and defenses of it are reflexive and obnoxious about the flip flop. This is how we get more like Iran, which obviously we don’t want.

    Also I enjoy talking crap about Iran because they don’t want me to.

    Dustin (d9d65a)

  37. Might be interesting to learn what the status of civil aviation traffic was in Iran that evening and if it had ben grounded at any point. The plane was a hour late departing.

    The smart move now by Iran now would be to express regret, manage reparations, remind the world that the climate was created by the assassination of their hero general by the Great Satan Trump, who created this situation, then corral the missile team – military or proxy– have a quick trial in the airport lounge–and execute them.

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  38. 29.

    Considering that the US shot down an airliner by accident during similar tension, I’d keep the finger-pointing to a minimum myself.

    Kevin M (19357e) — 1/9/2020 @ 11:13 am

    38. Dustin (d9d65a) — 1/9/2020 @ 12:29 pm

    When we did that it was a huge surprise that we learned from. We killed 66 children.

    I didn’t know that. What I heard was that agood number of Revolutionary Guards were aboard that plane and it scared Iran and Khomeini ended the Iran Iraq war as a result. It was a normal civilian plane (the Revolutionary Guards were on vacation heading to a Gulf state plus whoever else was.)

    The captain

    of the USS Vincennes

    was apparently on the warpath for a few weeks, and was misinformed that the plane was climbing (he was told it was diving). We misidentified an Airbus as an F-14, even though the plane was transmitting its civilian IFF and behaving like a commercial plane.b

    More important:

    Although an Iraqi fighter jet had fired at an American ship, somehow Secretary of Defense Casper Weinberger was able to transform that into being on the lookout for attacks by Iran.

    Casper Weinberger favored Iraq in the iran-Iraq war. John Poindexter and Oliver North had wanted to help Iran win. President Reagan wanted to stay neutral.

    IKt is not correct to call that an accident. It is correct maybe to call that a mistake, caused by several factors, including the Aegis system being not so discriminating as people thought But the real problem was the orders to be on the lookout for attacks by Iran, when nko such threat existed.

    After that Iran possibly organized the downing of pan Am 103. The FBI also says that they tried to kill, in San Diego, California, the wife of the commander of the Vincennes, but they were not really able to tie that specifically to Iran or to Soleimani

    https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1989-03-12-mn-883-story.html

    Sammy Finkelman (02a146)

  39. There’s video of the missile hitting the plane. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/09/video/iran-plane-missile.html

    Motherf***ers!

    nk (dbc370)

  40. 41. Another word for Don and Don Jr. There’s video of pops talking snatch ‘n’ grab, too.

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  41. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau seems to assume now that the plane was hit by a missile. He wantsa full investigation. Iran is denying that.

    The FAA had told U.S. airliners not to overfly Iran (I didn’t know they still did, despite sanctions) Some foreign airlines had stopped operations after the back and forth between Iran and Trump.

    There were any number of ways the Iranians could have known this was a regular passenger jet that had just taken off from the airport. But someone was incompetent, and they were presumably on high alert three hours after the missiles were fired into Iraq. . I think it is quite possible a number of other jetliners might have been nearly targeted by a missile but the Iranians caught themselves in time.

    Sammy Finkelman (2cb3c3)

  42. Dustin

    I’m confident now that Iran shot the plane down by accident.
    I only brought up Mossad because there was a slightly greater than zero chance Israel was involved in things blowing up around Iran.
    Note that I did not think it was likely at all, just something I’d like to see ruled out.
    The video did that for me, and if you remember I said I expected video to emerge.

    After this, I don’t think Irans air defenses are up to the US broad array of ECM’s.

    Since I am a conspiracy nut, I do think Iran has Command and Control hidden in under and around coultural sites

    steveg (354706)

  43. I have a friendly reply to Steve in the filter. Steve, I do not think you’re a nut.

    Dustin (d9d65a)

  44. Since I am a conspiracy nut, I do think Iran has Command and Control hidden in under and around coultural sites

    بلوط خیلی از درخت نمی افتد
    Hamas is the acorn, the mullahs are the tree.

    Kishnevi (8f80b4)

  45. The tree is the Muslim Brotherhood. Iran set up Islamic Jihad in Gaza. They supply Hamas as well.

    Sammy Finkelman (2cb3c3)

  46. Thanks Dustin and Kishnevi.
    These are trying times and passions run hot.
    I look at you guys and others and even if we don’t agree in the moment, I do know your hearts are good.

    steveg (354706)

  47. The United States says two missiles were fired, others say one. It could be that two were fired but one went wild. The plane was not immediately destroyed, and the pilot had time to turn the plane around and attempt to head back to the airport, but the plane was on fire, and he lost control.

    Sammy Finkelman (2cb3c3)


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