Clowns Come and Go, but the Clown Car Remains as Big as Ever
[guest post by JVW]
Former Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick plans to enter the 2020 Democrat Sweepstakes, and will file paperwork to be in the New Hampshire Primary later this week. This, of course, coming on the heels of Michael Bloomberg’s expected entry into the race, announced last week. If you’re keeping score at home, this would bring the number of Democrats seeking the top job up to 18, after the recent departures of Tim Ryan and Robert O’Rourke had dropped the number to a dangerously low 16.
If you had forgotten about Deval Patrick, he was the former assistant attorney general during the Clinton Administration, who then won a surprise victory in 2006 over establishment Democrats and a Republican lieutenant governor to become the first Massachusetts governor from his party since Michael Dukakis had left office sixteen years earlier. He steered Massachusetts policy in a decidedly progressive direction by raising taxes, increasing spending, and embracing whatever trendy social justice policies reared their ugly heads. Mr. Patrick also courted his share of controversy. He left office on a sour note, with a two-pronged gut punch of a huge budget deficit from his progressive economic policies, coupled with the complete failure of the lavishly-funded (and money wasting) Metro Boston Transit Authority to operate during a winter snowstorm. And finally, he raised a lot of eyebrows by taking a post-governor job as a “global ambassador” to the short-lived Boston 2024 Olympic Bid Committee at the remarkable consultant rate of $7,500 per day. A group of disgruntled Bay State residents managed to organize a strong opposition group, and Boston was forced to drop its bid.
The candidate most immediately threatened by Mr. Patrick’s entry into the race would seem to be Elizabeth Warren. He likely takes away some of her local New England vote, and his pedigree is similar to hers in that both are lawyers who have made a fair amount of money in the private sector (he at Bain & Company; she at Harvard Law) yet still sing lustily from the progressive songbook, seemingly immune to thoughts of inconsistency or hypocrisy. He could conceivably cut into Joe Biden’s advantage with the Barack Obama loyalty vote, especially among African-American Democrats, due to his longtime friendship with the 44th President. But it’s difficult to see the average voter associating the ex-governor with the former President, absent a clear endorsement which it doesn’t seem likely would be forthcoming. With only eighty-two days until the Iowa Caucus it appears far-fetched to expect Mr. Patrick’s campaign to have a strong organization in the Hawkeye State, but a decent finish in the New Hampshire Primary eight days later (where My Little Aloha Sweetie is currently polling at six percent!) might make his candidacy real. Conversely, a weak showing in the state just north of his might suggest that his candidacy is as foolish as that of John Hickenlooper or Jay Inslee.
Now all that’s left is for Hillary Clinton, Michelle Obama, John Kerry, John Edwards, and Gavin Newsom to enter the race and we can let the real fun begin.
– JVW
Deval Patrick’s legacy as governor was so robust that upon his departure Massachusetts voters immediately decided to return a Republican governor to Beacon Hill, to temper the flights of fancy of Democrat legislators.
JVW (54fd0b) — 11/13/2019 @ 4:43 pmI’m pretty sure that Gavin Newsom is looking either at 24 or 28 (depending on the coming election results).
I also don’t think that Deval Patrick will gain much traction. Nobody knows who he is and he isn’t going to make the debate stage.
Nic (896fdf) — 11/13/2019 @ 4:53 pmafter the recent departures of Tim Ryan and Robert O’Rourke had dropped the number to a dangerously low 16
LOL!
norcal (eec1aa) — 11/13/2019 @ 4:57 pm@2. I’m pretty sure Gavin Newsom is looking at himself.
DCSCA (797bc0) — 11/13/2019 @ 5:14 pm‘You’re so vain; you probably think this post is about you; you’re so vainnnnnn’ – apologies to Carly.
This morning I took a CBS News primary poll that should count for debate participation.
I listed Biden, Klobuchar and Delaney as the candidates I might support in the CA (open) primary, with Klobuchar as first choice.
Sorry JVW, no aloha for Russian assets.
Dave (566720) — 11/13/2019 @ 5:20 pmMeanwhile, Intersectionality Bingo is now down to one percent in New Hampshire. As we’ve discussed earlier, she has mostly shut down her NH operation and apparently is pinning her hopes on a strong showing in Iowa followed by a good finish in South Carolina, the first primary state where African-Americans play a significant role. A Deval Patrick candidacy isn’t really in her interests either, as diminishing as those interests may be.
JVW (54fd0b) — 11/13/2019 @ 5:22 pmSorry Dave, but it’s not an open primary in California for Presidential elections. Recall that Presidential primaries were not part of the ballot initiative that brought us the open primary. If you want a Democrat ballot, you are going to have to make a special request for one as I plan to do.
JVW (54fd0b) — 11/13/2019 @ 5:25 pmYes, I am aware of that.
I was just planning to show up at the polling place on election day. My understanding is that the parties must inform the state if they want their primaries closed; the GOP does, and the Dems don’t.
It may be different if you are still registered as a Republican – recall that I switched to unaffiliated on June 7, 2016, after the last GOP presidential primary. The Dog Trainer confirms what I had researched some time ago – that unaffiliated registered voters are eligible.
Dave (566720) — 11/13/2019 @ 5:39 pmYou are right that it is not open, though – I misspoke.
Dave (566720) — 11/13/2019 @ 5:40 pmI didn’t forget him, since I never remembered him in the first place. I doubt many people outside the Northeast have the slightest idea who he is. He could cause some damage to Bernie and Warren in NH, but I’m too sure how well he’s going to do elsewhere. I guess it all depends on black folks. Are they going to rally to him – like Obama in 2008 – because he’s black? They don’t seem too enthusiastic with Harris and Booker.
rcocean (1a839e) — 11/13/2019 @ 6:06 pmFlooding the zone with Bloomberg, Patrick, Biden, and Buttigig in the so-called “Moderate – Wall Street” lane is a danger for the Establishment. They could just chop up that vote and cancel each other out. OTOH, If one or two of them fails in Iowa/NH, the other two can pick up the banner. I get a sense of underlying panic in the D Establishment over Warren.
rcocean (1a839e) — 11/13/2019 @ 6:11 pmI was just planning to show up at the polling place on election day. My understanding is that the parties must inform the state if they want their primaries closed; the GOP does, and the Dems don’t.
Right, they do. I guess maybe you can just show up to the polls on primary day and ask for a ballot, provided the Democrats have a list of registered independents along with their own party members at the polling location. I have been voting by mail for the last twenty years, so I’m a bit fuzzy about this. I do know that you can vote by mail with a Democrat ballot, but you have to request the ballot several weeks before the actual election. I tried to get a Democrat ballot for the primary four years ago, but I ran out of time to have my request processed before primary day.
Maybe I will once again trudge out to the polling place, just for old time’s sake.
JVW (54fd0b) — 11/13/2019 @ 6:27 pmBut I’m going to double-check to make sure that it really is that easy. Something tells me it might not be.
JVW (54fd0b) — 11/13/2019 @ 6:28 pmHere’s an interesting thing that I only just now learned: the California Democrat Convention begins in Long Beach on Friday. I am really interested in seeing if they endorse a Presidential candidate in advance of our March 3 primary. Recall that in 2018 they endorsed Kevin de Leon over Dianne Feinstein for the Senate seat, so you know that the staunch left is the tail wagging that dog. My bet is that they will not endorse, seeing as how a candidate has to win a 60% share of the attendees to be endorsed, which should help avoid what would otherwise likely be an ugly embarrassment for home-state girl Intersectionality Bingo. But is it possible that a Bernard Sanders (who will be speaking at an event there) or an Elizabeth Warren (who will not be attending) could reach that magic threshold?
JVW (54fd0b) — 11/13/2019 @ 6:35 pmMarch 3 & March 10, you’ll have 20 states Voting for the D President. It could all be over on March 10th.
Its an odd schedule: Iowa, NH, Nevada, SC each week in Feb. and then in March bam! 20 states.
rcocean (1a839e) — 11/13/2019 @ 6:58 pmBTW, i just saw a funny poll result. Joe biden is getting 1% of the D vote in Texas. LOL!
rcocean (1a839e) — 11/13/2019 @ 7:02 pmfivethirtyeight.com takes an in depth look at Gabbard’s supporters.
She apparently has almost no support from women…
Dave (f4c7ce) — 11/13/2019 @ 7:21 pmThe Hawaiian goddess Pele wasn’t particularly liked by native women either, mostly for reasons of rank jealousy.
JVW (54fd0b) — 11/13/2019 @ 8:55 pmKidding aside, thanks for the interesting fivethirtyeight article, Dave. I find it interesting that Aloha Sweetie has the highest proportion of supporters who say that won’t support any other candidate. It suggests to me that she is attracting independents to her cause, just the sort of people who the Democrats need to win over to win back the Rust Belt and recapture the White House.
JVW (54fd0b) — 11/13/2019 @ 8:57 pmWere I still in CA, I would still be a Republican and I’d get the GOP ballot and vote for someone besides Trump, even if I had to write it in. Voting in the Dem primary would be worse than voting for Trump. The lesser of those evils is still pretty evil.
The problem with voting for someone you don’t like is that the vote says you DO like them.
Kevin M (19357e) — 11/14/2019 @ 12:13 pm