Patterico's Pontifications

9/18/2019

Two Candidates’ Campaigns in Trouble

Filed under: General — JVW @ 12:50 pm



[guest post by JVW]

There is currently no shortage of seriously obnoxious candidates in the Democrat Presidential primary. Even with the departure of the eminently dishonorable Kirsten Gillibrand, a woman who perfectly tailored her deeply-held beliefs to whatever political expediency demanded at any given time, we are still left with a motley assortment of De Blasios, Warrens, Klobuchars, Buttigiegs, Bidens, and the rest: all competing for the title of Wokest of the Woke and finding new ways to have government waste your hard-earned dollars.

But I want to focus this post on two candidates who started with a good deal of promise but have seen their campaigns start to sputter and are trending the wrong direction in recent polls: the one-time leader of the field, socialist wunderrentner Bernard Sanders, everbody’s favorite Marxist crank, and Kamala Harris, whom assorted nitwits (like me) assumed would have special appeal to a party that seemed to be driven by young people and minorities.

Regarding Sanders, Politico (no links for bullies, per site policy) details some of the setbacks that the Vermont Senator has suffered in the past week including a staff reorganization in New Hampshire, a neighboring state in which the old codger has to have a good showing in order to be taken seriously as a contender (despite his staff’s assurances to the contrary), and the surprise annoucement that the Working Families Party who had backed him in 2016 would be shifting their support to his populist rival from the Bay State, Elizabeth Warren. The national polls, which consistently show Dinosaur Joe Biden leading the pack, tend to be evenly divided in the second spot between the two New England Senators, though Lieawatha’s fortunes seem to be rising over the past two months while the Commissar’s standing appears to be slipping. A second-place finish to Warren in New Hampshire five months from now, or, even worse, a third-place finish behind Warren and Biden, would likely turn her into the new populist darling and spell an early end to Comrade Bernie’s second attempt at the big enchilada.

Meanwhile, Kamala Harris’s campaign has failed to catch fire despite the advantages she would appear to have in age, sex, race, and influence of her home state. After zooming up into the mid-teens in polling and finding herself in a solid third or even second position in the polls after the first debate, she has now slipped back into the five percent level, Pete Buttigieg territory, and a significant chasm has opened up between the California Senator and the big three. The Oakland-born, Berkeley-raised, former San Francisco mover and shaker who now officially resides in Los Angeles even finds herself trailing badly in her home state, which will account for 10% of the DNC delegates selected to the Milwaukee nominating convention. It would seem that once you are murdered by My Little Aloha Sweetie, you stay dead.

It’s a long way to February and lots more could happen between now and then to reset this race, but right know I think I would much rather be Elizabeth Warren than I would Kamala Harris or Bernard Sanders.

– JVW

53 Responses to “Two Candidates’ Campaigns in Trouble”

  1. At this moment, the overseas oddsmakers are coalescing around the following propositions:

    Warren – 3:2
    Biden – 11:4
    Sanders – 11:2
    Harris – all over the place, ranges from a low of 6:1 to a high of 16:1
    Yang – roughly 14:1
    Buttigieg – roughly 16:1
    Little Aloha Sweetie – ranges from 22:1 to 87:1

    JVW (54fd0b)

  2. Black women voters will decide nomination. they put in obama over hillary in 2008 and hillary over sanders in 2016. right now they are supporting groper joe if his dementia doesn’t get any worse and says he will put stacy abrams on the ticket.

    lany (0ca2a9)

  3. A Warren vs. Trump race would be interesting — a clash of the faux populists.

    Appalled (d07ae6)

  4. Of those, the gay kid, fine. It’s going to be an old senile white man though, or the old shrill white lady.

    Colonel Klink (Ret) (6e7a1c)

  5. That Warren choo-choo be coming round that bend!

    As to Harris, saw this recently and wondered if and how this might effect her:

    “California has banned taxpayer-funded travel to Iowa because of the state’s new law restricting health care for transgender Iowans seeking transition-related care.”

    https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/2019/09/17/california-bans-travel-iowa-transgender-surgery-transition-restrictions-lgbtq-health-care-sex/2351022001/

    harkin (8f010c)

  6. If the democrats were smart they would ride the wave with Tulsi.
    She would have a chance.

    mg (8cbc69)

  7. JVW @1 Can that be translated into probabilities?

    Does 3:2 = 40%

    11:4 = 31%

    11:2 = 15%

    Harris: 14% to 6%

    Yang: 7%

    Buttigieg = 6%

    Sammy Finkelman (102c75)

  8. 5. Doesn’t affect Kamala Harris at all. Her campaign would pay for any travel to Iowa, or possibly her Senate office if there is official business there.

    Sammy Finkelman (102c75)

  9. 8 – “Doesn’t affect Kamala Harris at all.”

    So she wouldn’t be breaking any rules or laws, just being incredibly offensive, ignorant, insensitive and unwoke, got it.

    harkin (8f010c)

  10. If the democrats were smart they would ride the wave with Tulsi.
    She would have a chance.”

    If that implies Warren has no chance, just remember the last pres. candidate who had no chance.

    harkin (8f010c)

  11. JVW @1 Can that be translated into probabilities?

    Not quite, because the idea is to have all of the odds add up to something less than 100% so that they can pocket the house take on the side, which I would guess is probably 10%. But your calculations give a pretty rough estimation of probabilities.

    JVW (54fd0b)

  12. As to Harris, saw this recently and wondered if and how this might effect her:

    Yeah, this will come as a huge surprise, but this is a toothless law with so many exemptions carved out that it is really just empty grandstanding. For instance, UCLA, Cal Berkeley, and other state university sports teams will all be allowed to travel to competitions in the “banned” states, and if there is a conference or a convention or some meeting in one of those forbidden states that a California state employee finds to be “important” then an exception is apparently pretty easy to come by. Just mindless virtue signaling; something our state is very good at.

    JVW (54fd0b)

  13. Bitter Clingers rally for Warren.

    mg (8cbc69)

  14. It’ll be ‘The Scold vs., The Old’ — Margaret Hamilton vs. W.C. Fields.

    Bet on Bill for the win.

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  15. this is the bigger picture, gentleman and lady, they are sowing war between the generations based on fraud,

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/09/17/why-baby-boomers-grandchildren-will-hate-them/

    narciso (d1f714)

  16. “Lol boomers” and “lol olds” are two of the more tired forms of dismissal these days.

    The young are being taught that the greed and racism of white boomers is the main cause of every problem they face.

    harkin (8f010c)

  17. yes, it is, apparently it has some effect, moral panics ‘shouldn’t go to waste’

    https://www.nationalreview.com/2019/09/california-ban-school-suspensions-invites-another-parkland/

    narciso (d1f714)

  18. Black women voters will decide nomination.

    Black women are barely 5% of the population and they vote no more than any other group. If they all chose Harris, she’d still lose. But they won’t all vote for anyone, just lie Hispanics or Jews or Poles will. Some will even vote for Trump.

    Kevin M (19357e)

  19. When did California Democrats ever have national appeal?

    nk (dbc370)

  20. Does 3:2 = 40%

    That’s 3 favorable outcomes out of 5, or 60%

    Kevin M (19357e)

  21. it’s the mindset, even with our fave, it’s a caracas future, with maybe a little soylent green, (they were bicycling for electricity in that film) they want to leave the gangs alone, but disarm the law abiding citizenry, and we’ve seen with harris, how the witchhunt is derigure,

    narciso (d1f714)

  22. Whoops. Backwards.

    Two out of 5 or 40%, as you said.

    Biden’s 11:4 is 4 chances in 15 or 27%

    Yang is 1 out of 15 or 7%

    Kevin M (19357e)

  23. There was several different polls that Trump is doing better than 20% in black
    support and around 50% of latino support. If that holds during election day,
    I don’t see who any Democrat candidate has a chance.

    I think the recent NC special election would be a microcosm of the 2020 election…
    in that Trump would lose much of the suburbian female votes, but he’d offset that
    in gains with minority support.

    whembly (4605df)

  24. regardless it’s a dark night if any of them win, it’s like playing Russian roulette, with all the chambers loaded,

    narciso (d1f714)

  25. There was several different polls that Trump is doing better than 20% in black
    support and around 50% of latino support.

    Whembley please share these several recent polls showing Trump with greater than 50% support among Latinos. The major one yesterday (NBC) had 70% of Latinos rejecting Trump, so I am interested in how these polls were run differently.

    I agree with you that Trump has a good chance of winning election. We live in an era where both parties have made themselves as crazy as they can be, so Trump’s opponent will be terrible. Not much cause for celebration that our country is like this now.

    Dustin (6d7686)

  26. Can we bet AGAINST candidates? Because i’d bet the farm that Bernie is NEVER – i repeat NEVER – going to get the nomination.

    rcocean (1a839e)

  27. https://spectator.org/why-trumps-approval-ratings-are-up-among-minorities/
    Some polls now show his approval numbers at 25 percent among African American voters and 50 percent among Hispanic voters.

    This is where I remembered where that figured came from…

    whembly (4605df)

  28. November 2020 is over a year away. A lot can and will happen before then.

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  29. Blacks don’t like Kam Harris. The prefer Joe “Obama’s best friend” Biden. But if Joey Corn Pops drops out, they MAY go for Harris over Warren and Bernie. I won’t write her off just yet.

    rcocean (1a839e)

  30. Thanks, Whembly. Very interesting and surprising.

    Dustin (6d7686)

  31. Given Democrats, much of NeverTrump and the media’s collusion in promoting the Left’s agenda, let’s hope the overwhelming majority of American voters realize that these useless idiots have a collective objective of destroying America’s institutions and will soundly reject it.

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  32. What is this thing teh Clintons have for sex perverts? First Epstein and now this Buck a*hole in SoCal.

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  33. I saw this in the Chicago mayoral election…one minority group does not want to lose the perceived favored status of the victor, so support from the other group will ratchet up with gains in the first group. Eventually, blacks did not want to be as outside-looking-in as they were during the Daley-Hispanic Dem Organization (HDO) halcyon 1990s so they broke for Lightfoot over Preckwinkle. The Red-Pill movement on a subconscious level scares Hispanics into thinking Blacks will leave the Dem reservation en masse so Hispanics will up their support for Trump in response.

    urbanleftbehind (2641dd)

  34. @33 IDK. You should ask Trump, he was friends with the Clintons and Epstein. Probably knows and has partied with half the sex perverts in LA, too.

    Nic (896fdf)

  35. This is Warren’s script flip of Spanky and Alfalfa’s Old “Women Haters Club”. Too funny!

    https://twitter.com/tomselliott/status/1174440356089405442

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  36. 35… interesting flail.

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  37. @37 Nah, if you want to throw stones at the Clintons for their associates, better be careful of your guy’s glass walls, especially since he shares a wall with the Clintons. Especially given his own admitted proclivities to get abruptly handsy with a lady’s kitty cat.

    Nic (896fdf)

  38. Stella mudd going to be doing this for nine monthes.

    Narciso (68a66e)

  39. Nic (896fdf) — 9/18/2019 @ 7:56 pm

    Whaddabout!!

    Munroe (732181)

  40. Like bill richardson and george mitchell, funny how affidavits can matter or not

    Narciso (68a66e)

  41. @40 I mean, if you want to follow me around the board going “whaddabout”, it’s your time.

    Nic (896fdf)

  42. This is where I remembered where that figured came from…

    Most interesting…although it runs counter to my own experience (I work with a lot of Hispanics and blacks, most of them in fact immigrants, and all of them despise Trump. And those that are citizens look forward to voting against him).

    And approval does not mean “vote for”. I heartily disapprove of Trump, but if the Democrats put forth a really bad candidate, I will probably vote for him.

    Kishnevi (8768cf)

  43. Oh, pause ye for a moment in remembrance of a very great musician
    RIP Paul Badura-Skoda 1927-2019

    Kishnevi (8768cf)

  44. Are they willing to throw kavanaugh under the bus too, the reality is there is a million ways in which you are consitioned to vote democrat, its like water torture, every republican is deemed unwirthy no matter how incompetent the rival.

    Narciso (68a66e)

  45. Get rid of guns, get rid of fossil fuels, take down crosses, dismantle the military you must do it to prove virtue

    Narciso (68a66e)

  46. Given Democrats, much of NeverTrump and the media’s collusion in promoting the Left’s agenda,

    I am tired and cranky, and for once I will state I have no patience for that meme about NeverTrump.

    Unless you consider integrity, competence in office, and actually believing in the idea of small government to be the Leftist agenda.

    Kishnevi (8768cf)

  47. I don’t know if it took Trump and his rich jerkoff cronies to do it, but every day I am more convinced that the real libertarians are not the free-market capitalists but more likely the same ones who called themselves libertarians 150 years ago — the bomb-throwing anarchist-socialists. I’m even starting to believe in revolution. That it’s too late to fix things, and we’ll need to tear it all down and rebuild from scratch. That “Road To Serfdom” rug-peddler apologia? Yeah, we’re on it, but the feudal lords are the capitalists, not the government.

    nk (dbc370)

  48. The dems cannot be allowed to win, the last three debates have hammered that point, and the three little pigs weld sanford and walah wont beat them,

    Narciso (68a66e)

  49. Facebook google and yahoo larger than most small countries, but they have one mindset, they never intended anti revolutionary values to have purchase and they are remedying that.

    Narciso (68a66e)

  50. Revolutions arent started by the masses, they are directed by the vanguard, what is the nature of the vanguard and where do you find it.

    Narciso (68a66e)

  51. Slo jos tax bill if you can believe it is worse yhan liz warren, it taxes all your appreciated value of assets, by removing the atep up.

    Narciso (68a66e)

  52. @16. Reaganomics.

    DCSCA (797bc0)

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