Patterico's Pontifications

8/13/2019

Trump delays Chinese Tariffs

Filed under: Economics,International — DRJ @ 10:06 am



[Headline from DRJ]

Donald Trump CAVES on tariffs on Chinese goods putting them off for MONTHS after ‘very good call’ with Beijing so they do not send cost of Christmas shopping soaring amid fears they will end his economic boom:

The Trump Administration announced Tuesday morning that is delaying tariffs on Chinese-manufactured goods like laptops and cell phones until Dec. 15.

Trump’s trade office says that certain products ‘will not face additional tariffs of 10 percent’ due to health, safety or national security concerns. Some of the products it listed were cell phones, laptop computers, video game consoles, computer monitors, footwear and clothing. USTR said it will post a list of items that are being excluded on its website.

It announced the postponement shortly after the the stock market opened, and the Dow jumped nearly 500 points within minutes of the news.

Donald Trump has not commented directly but hinted in a tweet that the action was intended to get China to move forward with large agricultural orders.

Did Trump’s negotiating strategy work or did he cave because of farmers and Christmas?

— DRJ

46 Responses to “Trump delays Chinese Tariffs”

  1. …or, he knows China is about to attack it’s own citizens again in Hong Kong so he can be seen as the moderate here and still get what he wants after the murders start.

    MJN1957 (6f981a)

  2. Then you think it worked, or this is a new strategy because the old one didn’t work?

    DRJ (15874d)

  3. Just a very good call, no beautiful letter?

    nk (dbc370)

  4. Also, can you give me an example of a time when Trump thought being the moderate in the room is a good thing? Abortion is the only issue I can think of, but nothing in foreign affairs.

    DRJ (15874d)

  5. nk is funny.

    DRJ (15874d)

  6. we’ll see if it works. If he’s able to put the skids to the theft of intellectual property and the undue hobbling of American companies that want access to China’s markets, it may be worth it. It’s about time America did the right thing.

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  7. #4 —

    When it comes to intervening against dictators and talking about human rights, Trump is often the voice of sweet reason. See Syria as an example. (Also, see Saudi Arabia)

    Appalled (d07ae6)

  8. “strategy,” LOL

    Dave (1bb933)

  9. he government can’t decide whetehr it wants to frighten the people of Hing Kong or to fool them.

    If they are trying to frighten them, then trying to fool them into thinking they have nohing to worry about from China works at cross purposes with that and renders it ineffective.

    If they are trying to fool them, trying to frighten them works at cross purposes with that,

    I think they more want to fool them because they don’t want to lose the value of Hong Kong. Regaining control by force, even of it worked, would destroy Hong Kong because that will destroy the sense of stabiliy Hong Kong has, AND even of China, and both foreigners and natives would begin planning the exit of their money (and themselves)

    Donald Trump, as usual, doesn’t care about human rights for non-Americans, but he’s picked anumber of other fights with China – “fair trade”, intellectual property, commercial and military
    espionage and China’s military buildup – all of which he will abandon in a minute, if China will just get rid of North Korea’s nuclear bombs.

    Which they are not willing to do, although they try to keep on pretending that they are.

    As for why he cares about the North Korean nuclear bombs and not so much that of China, Trump He assumes China is deterred, (in reality, they are trying to have some other country get away withh the use of nuclear weapons so that it will no longer be a paper tiger) but he needs periodic groveling from Kim Jong Un to know North Korea is deterred (and he gets it. Make no mistake, he gets it.)

    Meanwhile, everybody else in politics in the United states has a dozen other reasons, besides those that Trump focuses on, to have more or less hostile relatioss with China, and one of those is Hong Kong. Or would be if something bad happens.

    Sammy Finkelman (324ec1)

  10. There is an unspoken reason why all of this is happening in Hong Kong, and why teh protesters won’t let up.

    Young people can see 2047 coming and, in addition, China attempting salami tactics to impose totalitarianism long before that.

    A necessary, but not sufficient condition for ending this therefore would be for the Chinese
    government to voluntarily (because nobody dares to ask for it) extend (or maybe offer to extend) the end of the current dispensaton for anoher 25 or 30 years past the year 2047.

    Or maybe perhaps better ten years, with the date being pushed off by another year every year if the situation remains satisfactory to China. China would know that if they skipped more than one year they;d be in big trouble.

    They’d probably have to add actually direct elections for governor of Hong Kong. The Soviet Union actually had something lke that with Finland for any years. Everybody knew where they stood, and the Soviet Union left it running itself the way it wn=anted to run itself.

    Without that, nobody will believe that Xi Jinping has given up on his salami tactics.

    Something might still start in a couple of years, but at least it would be completely over for now.

    Sammy Finkelman (324ec1)

  11. “salami tactics”?

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  12. “Salami tactics” was the term coined by Hungarian Communist leader Mátyás Rákosi to describe hw the Comunists took control of Hungary after World War II. He compared it to someone eating a salami that was supposed to be eaten by the entire family.

    First, one would cut off a small slice. It looked almost as big as it did before. And then you would cut off another. And another. Until finally the whole salami was gone, without the boy having taken all the salami at one time, which might have encountered resistence.

    http://content.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,857130,00.html

    HUNGARY: Salami Tactics

    Monday, Apr. 14, 1952

    With the Communists safely in power, Hungary’s bullet-headed top Communist Matyas Rakosi decided the time had come to tell everybody how they got there. Writing in the party organ Social Review, Rakosi is cynically candid. In the free elections of 1945, the Communists polled only 17% of the vote while the democratic Smallholders Party polled 56.5%, a clear majority. But with the help of the occupying Russian army (“Soviet ‘interferences’ in internal affairs . . .

    Or this:

    https://www.cvce.eu/content/publication/2002/7/22/9a19d06e-4163-4f31-b2c9-1bc9e65a380a/publishable_en.pdf

    I see he actually used the term “Salami Tactics”, to refer to shrinking the membership of a political party, but it was used around 1956 to describe the Communist process of taking control

    Here’s a usage from 1981 in the Washington Post:

    May 2, 1981

    For more than 30 years, the term “salami tactics” has been used to describe communist governments slicing away at their opponents. But not reformers in Poland are using the old salami tactics to construct a radically new kind of communist society.

    The phrase was coined by the Hungarian Stalinist leader Matyos Rakosi to describe the way he gradually isolated opposition political parties which would not accept communist domination of Hungary in the late 1940s.

    It was used again in 1968 to describe the “normalization” process in Czechoslovakia following the 1968 Soviet invasion: Reforms introduced by Alexander Dubcek were sliced away gradually until there was no salami left at all.

    In Poland, the same phenomenon is taking place — only in reverse. Week by week, month by month, one slice of reform is being added to another. Individually, the changes are sometimes difficult to perceive, but cumulatively they amount to the creation of a system of government unlike any other in Eastern Europe.

    In that case, martial law was declared, but the reverse salami tactics went to fruition in 1989.

    Sammy Finkelman (324ec1)

  13. I think this is just a case of Trump focusing on a short term news cycle. He got to threaten like a tough guy. His idea isn’t a good one. So he’s backing off.

    Time123 (36651d)

  14. Not only is Trump caving on tariffs, his silence on Hong Kong and the Uighers is deafening, because he doesn’t understand diplomatic leverage. Like with Putin, a guy he has not publicly criticized, Trump has not directly defended the Hong Kong protesters or criticized Xi for relocating and incarcerating and “reeducating” over a million Chinese Muslims (Pompeo has said it, but not Trump). Strategy!

    Paul Montagu (a2342d)

  15. On the list are cell phones, laptops, gamecock Naples, toys and apparel…

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  16. they missed the last nuclear war, coronello, bots overreact to rumor over actual events,

    narciso (d1f714)

  17. Nice auto spell! “gamecock Naples” sounds like a villain!

    game consoles

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  18. Kaya Jones
    @KayaJones
    Protesters in Hong Kong waving the American flag and singing the American National anthem as they advocate for democracy. Wow!

    https://mobile.twitter.com/KayaJones/status/1160952865797615616?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1160952865797615616&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theweek.in%2Fnews%2Fworld%2F2019%2F08%2F13%2Fhong-kong-protesters-wave-american-flag-sing-national-anthem.html
    _

    Don’t they know they’re supposed to take a knee when they see Old Glory?
    _

    harkin (58d012)

  19. An adjustment isn’t “caving” if its part of an interactive process of getting China to make favorable moves on other things. People who think adjustments are a departure from perfect purity, and that Trump is “caving,” do not grasp negotiations at all.

    Those insisting that Trump not be “silent” on Hong Kong, also aren’t the ones writing the checks for the speech they want him to make.

    The ‘soft power” EU isn’t going to do anything. We’re not sending US troops, and the people wanting a speech aren’t volunteering to go in their stead. HK has never bothered to develop the slightest military capacity. So if China uses troops, we know where it ends.

    So why give false hope to the people in HK? Why hold out the false glimmer that we’ll do something? Why encourage resistance that is going to get more people hurt?

    No one imagines the US is going to intervene in any serious way as to HK. A speech, a condemnation, etc., would is mere John Kerry puffery. And would worsen our relations with China over a place that we are powerless to help.

    This was over when Britain ceded it.

    Harcourt Fenton Mudd (0c349e)

  20. Did Trump’s negotiating strategy work or did he cave because of farmers and Christmas?

    Neither. He doesn’t believe his own bulls**t.

    Gryph (08c844)

  21. China’s been accusing the United States of being behind the demonstrations in Hong Kong. They don’t truly beleive that, or else there’d be feelers trying to see what the U.S. might want for giving up on Hing Kong.

    They want the U.S. to actively try to stop it, and attemot to prove itself “innocent.” It’s not going to happen. The U.S. regularly has diplomats meet with “the opposition” any place the opposition looks like it might some day cometo power, and that doesn’t have to be soon.

    In China, the United States of America is the symbol of freedom, or of what they want.

    In 1989, demonstrators at Tiananmen Square used something that was like, but was not called, the Statue of Liberty. They called it the Goddess of Democracy. It was also maybe deliberately designed not to resemble it too much.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Goddess_of_Democracy

    A similar one was taken to Hong Kong in 2010:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Goddess_of_Democracy_(Hong_Kong)

    Sammy Finkelman (102c75)

  22. Thank God Trump is POTUS. For example here’s pablum from Mittens:

    “protests in Hong Kong are further exposing China’s relentless campaign of repression, censorship, and the imprisonment of millions. I support the people of Hong Kong in their quest for freedom and autonomy. The Chinese Communist Party and the military should stay in Beijing.”

    Or else what? People talk big but we have no power. Especially since the same crowd that want to “DO SOMETHING!11″ wants to cave to China on Trade.

    rcocean (1a839e)

  23. Trump should put a tariff on Hong Kong. And then stay out of it, despite the pressure of the deep state turds to get involved Hong Kong. 10-1 the CIA is already involved. We need to stay out of this. Just tariffs baby, just tariffs.

    mg (8cbc69)

  24. The explanation for delaying the tariffs is easy and it has nothing to do with Hong Kong or very good calls:

    Somebody told Trump that there is an election next year and if he wants to brag about the economy he will need a very good and beautiful Christmas shopping season this year.

    nk (dbc370)

  25. Hong Kong and Mainland China are in two different categories,. One reason the government in Beijing doesn;t just take it over even de facto and not de jure is that Hong Kong might lose its special trade and economic status. This fear must be at the back of their minds.

    But then why schedule it for 2047??

    Sammy Finkelman (102c75)

  26. When it comes to intervening against dictators and talking about human rights, Trump is often the voice of sweet reason. See Syria as an example.

    I don’t understand this. Can you explain it?

    DRJ (15874d)

  27. Harcourt Fenton Mudd (0c349e) — 8/13/2019 @ 2:00 pm

    Thank you. You are a refreshing voice amidst the daily chorus.

    ColoComment (89c82f)

  28. except Venezuela and cuba, where charming tulsi is on the other side, the two airstrikes against chemical weapons facilities, the Israelis have gone after others,

    narciso (d1f714)

  29. 26. He doesn’t care.

    Sammy Finkelman (102c75)

  30. A moron stumbles between stupid decision after stupid decision after stupid comments, and trips and falls into an accidental correct outcome, and people rejoice. He’s a moron, so he’ll moron it up soon, so just because there’s a pause in stupid for a moment, shouldn’t be considered anything other than what it is, a happy accident.

    Colonel Klink (Ret) (6e7a1c)

  31. Trump’s remarks on Hong Kong, shorter version: Democracy schmemocracy.

    Paul Montagu (a2342d)

  32. Nobody thinks Trump is “in bed with Dictators” except the “Orange man bad” crowd. The same types who want to cave to China on trade – our only lever. AND want to keep trading with Iran BUT want sanctions put on Putin.

    Go listen to Lindsey Graham or Mittens or Biden or read the DC Foreign policy “experts” – they’re all over the map. There is no consistency. One minute they’re screeching about how Saudi Arabia MUST come clean over the journalists death or we’re cutting ties, a month later its all forgotten.

    Putin is the next Hitler, but the Chicoms are our buddies. We need to stay in Syria and Afghanistan forever because something good will happen – one of these days. Its the same dumb crowd that got us into Iraq War – but still thinks they’re the smartest people in the room.

    rcocean (1a839e)

  33. how did Cuomo fils get into yale, logic is not a strong suit, of course cnn was known for kissing the soviets so hard, they needed a penicillin shot,

    “My guayabera? This shirt belonged to my father. It was given to him by Fidel Castro. It marked conversations going on decades ago that were the same as those today. The concern was the freedom of the people. What is the point of this communist regime if it is not to truly make everyone equal, not at the lowest level, not by demoralizing everyone, but lifting everyone up. My father, generations of politicians have been fighting this. So I wear this shirt as a reminder of that.”

    narciso (d1f714)

  34. Trump caved on the China tariffs.
    Trump caved on the China tariffs.
    Trump caved on the China tariffs.
    Trump caved on the China tariffs.
    Trump caved on the China tariffs.
    Trump caved on the China tariffs.
    Trump caved on the China tariffs.
    Trump caved on the China tariffs.

    nk (dbc370)

  35. Competent parents try to instill certain values in their children, such as “if you don’t have something worthy of being said, it’s best to keep your yapper closed”.

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  36. 35. Good advice for Trump. Too bad he never follows it.

    Gryph (08c844)

  37. if anyone knows what’s the right policy course, please enlighten us, this administration, has put the hurt on the pla leadership, an application of Clausewitz, but too many corporations are at the dragon’s bosum, Huawei being the scorpion, everyone seems to want to ride, it was the leak of this unwelcome reality, that had Williamson booted out of the cabinet, boris Johnson, has acknowledged this service, by bringing him back to cabinet,

    narciso (d1f714)

  38. Trump fans in June: “The tariff threats are genius. Beijing has a lot more to lose than the U.S. The President has brilliantly brought a measure of uncertainty into our trade policy with China, who can no longer expect a President to just roll over the way Bush, Clinton, Bush, and Obama did. China now knows that they can’t call Trump’s bluff.”

    Trump fans today: “This move is super bright because it puts off any pain that might hit us until after the holiday season. Beijing has enough to worry about with the protests in Hong Kong, and this positions Trump as a conciliator and a moderate.”

    So what was lost? China now knows that Trump can be made to blink too, and if he wants to try to rev up these tariffs again, he’ll do so in a way that affects the economy as he is running for reelection. Does anyone here think there is any chance that Trump will be willing to run that risk in January 2020?

    (Yes, for the record I know it’s possible that the administration talks China into some serious concessions to avoid the tariffs in January, but I think it’s more likely that they just keep the status quo and declare victory.)

    JVW (54fd0b)

  39. It seems like there must be a connection between Trump ending the tariffs on the same day China escalates its response in Hong Kong, but I can’t see it as anything but Trump trying to help the Chinese. I do not see that as moderation in our foreign policy. That is helping a dicator of a communist country.

    DRJ (15874d)

  40. That is helping a dictator of a communist country.

    It’s what he does.

    Dave (1bb933)

  41. 39. Cue trump humpers to explained to us unenlightened troglodytes just why that is a good thing for America and the world.

    Gryph (08c844)

  42. Gamecock Naples is a master at salami tactics.

    JRH (52aed3)

  43. LOL… THAT’s a better name for Fredo Cuomo.

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  44. hehe. it is, at that.

    JRH (52aed3)

  45. What Trump is dishing out is the bologna. The salami is for hiding with Kim Jong Un.

    nk (dbc370)

  46. The salami is for hiding with Kim Jong Un.

    “People say he only smiles when he sees me.”

    He doesn’t just smile, he laughs his fat @ss off…

    Dave (1bb933)


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