The Reason the Deceptive Unemployment Number Is So Low
People who want things to be good are pointing to the fact that the “unemployment” number has fallen below 4%. Hallelujah! Everything is fixed! Right?
Wrong. As I pointed out again and again during the Obama administration, the key number these days is the labor force participation rate. As people drop out of the workforce, and give up looking for work entirely, they are not counted in the unemployment figure.
So, for example, in May 2014, the unemployment number had fallen to 6.3% — the lowest number since the financial crisis had hit. Was I thrilled? No, because the labor force participation rate had fallen to 62.8%. My reaction was this:
Yes, these jobs numbers should be good. But the net result is that they’re not. And it’s because government is strangling the recovery that is attempting to occur.
We enjoy a standard of living that would have been the envy of most kings in world history, due to the division of labor, which allows people to specialize in their area of expertise, contributing to better conditions for all. This president inherited a political system that already discouraged work, and made the situation multiple times worse, to the point where record numbers of people are choosing to simply say: “I’m outta here” — meaning that they will henceforth be a net drain on society’s resources, rather than a net positive. This means a lower standard of living for everybody — but the negatives are masked because the causality is hard to trace, at least for those not steeped in principles of economics, human action, incentives, and interference with the unhampered market economy.
Obama has failed. That’s what we were supposed to “hope” for, right? Well, congratulations. Your hope is now reality. And the “new normal” wipes out any gains that might otherwise accrue from what would normally be good news, because ObamaCare and other oppressive regulations create disincentives for work and productivity.
In July 2015, the unemployment rate had fallen to a seven-year low of 5.3%. Fantastic, right? No, because the labor force participation rate was at 62.6%, the lowest rate since 1977. I noted:
Remember: the availability of disability payments to healthy people has exploded under Obama. I am mystified that government policies incentivizing people to leave the workforce has the effect of causing people to leave the workforce.
So now, we have unemployment under 4%, and partisans are cheering — only this time, it’s different partisans. As usual, I am here to piss in the cornflakes. CNBC says:
The drop in the unemployment rate came amid another decline in the labor force participation rate to 62.8 percent, the lowest since January.
That’s the same number that I was in agony about in May 2014. Depressingly, although a tepid 164,000 jobs were created, CNBC also reports that “410,000 folks dropped out of the workforce, bringing the total to 95.74 million — a big reason for the dropping headline unemployment rate.”
The trendline on the labor force participation rate was straight down for Obama, and (with fluctuations) has been pretty much a flat line for Trump:
In my view, the problems caused by Obama included ObamaCare, an explosion in disability payments, and passage of oppressive regulations — in that order of importance. We have not fixed ObamaCare. The omnibus did nothing to address the explosion in disability payments; if anything, they are set to increase, after a funding increase for the Social Security Administration, primarily to address a backlog of appeals of SSI denials. We are told that regulations have been cut, and the tax cut should help. But look at the trendline. So far, we’re treading water. A year and three months into the Trump presidency, the labor force participation rate is still dismal.
I hate to be the bearer of bad tidings — especially here, given my readership. After all, when I pointed this out during the Obama years, everyone understood I was looking past the headlines, and readers greeted my analysis with gratitude. Today, the same people are likely to find something to complain about in my analysis — even though I am making the exact same point, in the face of the exact same type of misleadingly cheery media stories.
We are not out of the woods, folks. And it doesn’t even look like we know where the pathway out lies.
[Cross-posted at The Jury Talks Back.]
we know where the pathway out lies
happyfeet (28a91b) — 5/4/2018 @ 7:43 pmHere’s a fun experiment for after this post gets a few comments: compare the comments to this post to the comments on the two linked posts from the Obama years.
Patterico (115b1f) — 5/4/2018 @ 7:43 pmyour idea of a fun friday night experiment is questionable Mr. P
happyfeet (28a91b) — 5/4/2018 @ 7:45 pmCaptain P, this is an economics error not even Trump would make. The ideal labor participation rate is zero percent.
The purpose of an economy is to provide goods and services with the minimal amount of inputs, including labor.
The error is as wrong as politicos who insist that “jobs” are a feature of one of their loopy plans. Jobs are a cost, not a benefit.
Remedial reading: Tim Worstall’s blog and articles in Forbes and the Continental Telegraph etc.
Fred Z (fca393) — 5/4/2018 @ 7:45 pmi’ll leave you to your remedial reading Mr. P
maybe we can have fun tomorrow night
happyfeet (28a91b) — 5/4/2018 @ 7:49 pmSo what? More Americans have jobs since Trump’s election than before, consequently the participation rate is up. That’s more than logic, it’s an obvious fact.
Look around, there are lots of signs out in many places announcing employment opportunities, which were very few and far between during the long dark night of Obama’s so-called ‘transformation.’
Any fool could see it.
ropelight (c1dd49) — 5/4/2018 @ 7:54 pmIt’s not unemployment. It’s funemployment!
Patterico (115b1f) — 5/4/2018 @ 7:57 pmThe point of the post is: no it isn’t.
Patterico (115b1f) — 5/4/2018 @ 7:58 pmPeople explaining why scads of people dropping out of the workforce is suddenly good is like people explaining why debt is suddenly unimportant.
Patterico (115b1f) — 5/4/2018 @ 8:00 pm@1. we know where the pathway out lies
It lies with Reaganomics, Mr. Feet, where Pathway always has a sale on ketchup to make soup.
You can heat it in your Chinese-made microwave, too.
DCSCA (797bc0) — 5/4/2018 @ 8:00 pm9.People explaining why scads of people dropping out of the workforce is suddenly good is like people explaining why debt is suddenly unimportant.
Or losing them to a war.
DCSCA (797bc0) — 5/4/2018 @ 8:03 pmwe’re better off than we were when we relied on food stamp multipliers and the effluvium from pelosi’s pendulous breasts
happyfeet (28a91b) — 5/4/2018 @ 8:04 pmCaptain P, this is an economics error not even Trump would make. The ideal labor participation rate is zero percent.
The purpose of an economy is to provide goods and services with the minimal amount of inputs, including labor.
Like happyfeet’s comments, I cannot decide whether the parody in Fred Z’s is intentional or unintentional.
nk (dbc370) — 5/4/2018 @ 8:04 pmhttp://amp.slate.com/business/2018/05/the-unemployment-rate-is-historically-low-and-meaningless.html
Kishnevi (ebf823) — 5/4/2018 @ 8:07 pmGDP — a number I am suspicious of, I’ll remind you — has been remarkably tepid.
Patterico (115b1f) — 5/4/2018 @ 8:08 pmwe need to do more to free the labor market too many people are held back by their criminal records
that needs to change
happyfeet (28a91b) — 5/4/2018 @ 8:09 pmAnd like happyfeet’s, I’m *pretty* sure it’s unintentional.
Patterico (115b1f) — 5/4/2018 @ 8:10 pmthat’s an odd little snippet of time Mr. P
happyfeet (28a91b) — 5/4/2018 @ 8:10 pmIsn’t some large part of this an expected development in a period with decent(though not stellar) economic growth and the demographic effects of the first wave of baby boomer retirements? We are experiancing a sharp trend up in our average age and one would expect a lower labor force participation rate, right?
DavidK (3260a3) — 5/4/2018 @ 8:13 pmGo to the site and play with the chart. It gives MAX, 10Y, 5Y, and 1Y. I thought 5Y would be most meaningful. Look at 1Y though. Pathetic. If I were out to make Trump look bad I’d choose that one.
Patterico (115b1f) — 5/4/2018 @ 8:13 pmDavidK,
I imagine that is a factor, and was for Obama as well.
Patterico (115b1f) — 5/4/2018 @ 8:14 pmOne other thought as a newish parent has to be the shockingly high cost of daycare. We will have our second this fall and be looking at roughly $1800 a month. If you figure that is post tax money, you’d essentially be working for free if you made <30k. It wouldnt be suprising to see one wage earning parent dropping out in many cases. Though parenthood has always impacted labor force participation, particuallry for women for quite some time.
DavidK (3260a3) — 5/4/2018 @ 8:20 pmIf I were out to make Trump look bad I’d choose that one.
but that’s not who you are
happyfeet (28a91b) — 5/4/2018 @ 8:22 pmDavidK, both valid points, but the decline has been steeper than BLS projections based on population trends, so the baby boomer issue is not the whole story by a longshot. And even structural changes like this pose challenges that need to be planned for — and nobody is planning.
Patterico (115b1f) — 5/4/2018 @ 8:24 pmIs too!
Patterico (115b1f) — 5/4/2018 @ 8:26 pmWhat’s good is when you get counted as participating in the labor force but you can spend a lot of time online watching YouTube or looking for another job.
Pinandpuller (5688d2) — 5/4/2018 @ 8:29 pmThe labor force participation rate has been dropping since the year 2000. Part of that is the aging population. Part of that is the fact that people are staying in schools longer. There’s no one factor that’s responsible for all of it. But to get worried about the rate now is a little short-sighted. When Obama was in office, I would get worked up about the rate until I saw the historical data and realized it was part of a long trend.
The fact is, we don’t know why 410,000 people left the labor force last month: how many were retirees, how many stopped working voluntarily (say, to raise a family), how many went back to school, and how many gave up looking. Certainly a mix of all those, but unless we know in what proportions, it’s impossible to assess the meaning of the number.
Things to watch (that would be bad signs if they increase) are the number of people on disability and the number of chronically unemployed (longer than a year).
One thing that was reported a couple of days ago is that fast food places are having trouble hiring teens because the number of available workers is so low. That’s going to put upward pressure on pay, which will tend to bring more people back into the labor force.
Chuck Bartowski (211c17) — 5/4/2018 @ 8:29 pmoh i see
but…
GDP Growth Under Obama Was Worst In Decades
happyfeet (28a91b) — 5/4/2018 @ 8:31 pmChuck, i agree. Perhaps a better metric would be the labor force participation rate of prime employment eligible people. I.e. 26-55. It wont account for everything but might weed out some of the demographic explanations.
DavidK (3260a3) — 5/4/2018 @ 8:40 pmThat sounds like a start in the right direction to me. To phrase it slightly differently, after 8 years of plummeting rates of labor force participation, Trump has managed to stop the decline, starting almost immediately after he took office.
Hopefully, as his actions on trade kick in, the participation rate will actually start to increase.
Anon Y. Mous (6cc438) — 5/4/2018 @ 8:41 pm“Jim Brady was one of the greatest men this country has produced. Not only as a salesman, but as a real man. There never was an appeal made to him for money or clothes by man or woman to which he did not respond…He never touched liquor, tobacco, tea, or coffee, but he certainly was an eater, being particularly fond of sweets. I have seen him eat a pound of candy in five minutes…His will undoubtedly will be found to be one of the most remarkable documents of its kind. Johns Hopkins Hospital; will get most of his money. … I never knew him to tell a lie, and I think that was, in part, responsible for his success”
It’s noted that Brady had never married, his relationship with Lillian Russell is not cited, likely out of respect, and the article opens with a statement of how Brady was probably best known at the time of his death, stating he “was famed from Broadway to the Golden Gate as the best-known man in the nightlife of Broadway, an indefatigable first-nighter and a tireless dancer.”
Immortal Ephemera
Pinandpuller (5688d2) — 5/4/2018 @ 8:41 pmStyle points deducted for not quoting any of the 19+ times Donald Trump claimed the unemployment numbers were “fiction”, “phony”, “fake”, etc during the Obama administration. Most recently on December 8, 2016:
He started trying to take credit for how wonderful the suddenly-factual unemployment numbers were just three months later, in March 2017.
Dave (445e97) — 5/4/2018 @ 8:43 pmThe Goldilocksian horseschiff continues. Don’t believe your lyin’ eyes, or your ears, and don’t listen to teh word on the street.
Colonel Haiku (2601c0) — 5/4/2018 @ 8:44 pmYeah expecting the political system (and quite frankley most people) to plan ahead for coming issues in the future is a bit like asking a one year old to consider the long term impact of cake for dinner.
DavidK (3260a3) — 5/4/2018 @ 8:44 pmNot impossible. Given that BLS had projections that took structural changes into account, and the actual decline exceeded those projections, weak hiring has been part of the explanation for years.
Patterico (115b1f) — 5/4/2018 @ 8:47 pmTeh horseschiff is heating up, that’s for sure.
Colonel Haiku (2601c0) — 5/4/2018 @ 8:47 pmLOL. If by “almost immediately after” you mean “about three years before”, then OK.
The graph clearly shows that the steady decline in labor force participation ended around the start of 2014.
Dave (445e97) — 5/4/2018 @ 8:48 pmIf people aren’t working they most likely are collecting some sort of government support, social security, student loans, or welfare.
On a positive note compared to Obama, most of the welfare support is down. Getting the old or young to work is going to be a much harder task and will probably require legislation like reforming student loans or adding a stricter work requirement.
Nate Ogden (223c65) — 5/4/2018 @ 8:50 pmConDave… Free-market capitalist…
Colonel Haiku (2601c0) — 5/4/2018 @ 8:50 pmLong Term Unemployment Rate in the United States decreased to 0.80 percent in April from 0.82 percent in March of 2018. Long Term Unemployment Rate in the United States averaged 1.57 percent from 2013 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 2.80 percent in June of 2013 and a record low of 0.80 percent in April of 2018.
Nate Ogden (223c65) — 5/4/2018 @ 8:51 pmhttps://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/long-term-trends-in-employment-by-age-group
This has an interesting look at long term data for the 25-64 cohort, which imho is the most importantant to examine in this area.
DavidK (3260a3) — 5/4/2018 @ 8:55 pm@ nate, or incarcerated, a trend that has increased through the 80s and 90s and hasnt really come down all that much.
DavidK (3260a3) — 5/4/2018 @ 8:57 pmThis is a troubling statistic that needs fixed, not just addressed.
“Despite near-record low unemployment and a record number of open jobs, the number of able-bodied adults on food stamps remains at a near-record 21 million.”
Nate Ogden (223c65) — 5/4/2018 @ 8:58 pmI thought incarceration had dropped in the past 3 to 5 years….
Nate Ogden (223c65) — 5/4/2018 @ 8:59 pmThe U.S. incarceration rate fell in 2016 to its lowest level in 20 years, according to new data from the Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS), the statistical arm of the Department of Justice. Despite the decline, the United States incarcerates a larger share of its population than any other country.
At the end of 2016, there were about 2.2 million people behind bars in the U.S., including 1.5 million under the jurisdiction of federal and state prisons and roughly 741,000 in the custody of locally run jails. That amounts to a nationwide incarceration rate of 860 prison or jail inmates for every 100,000 adults ages 18 and older.
The nation’s incarceration rate peaked at 1,000 inmates per 100,000 adults during the three-year period between 2006 and 2008. It has declined every year since then and is now at its lowest point since 1996, when there were 830 inmates per 100,000 adults.
Nate Ogden (223c65) — 5/4/2018 @ 9:01 pmHere is a 5-year graph of the Long Term Unemployment Rate. The decline is a long-term trend that has nothing to do with Donald Trump.
Dave (445e97) — 5/4/2018 @ 9:02 pm@nate, i stand corrected.
DavidK (3260a3) — 5/4/2018 @ 9:06 pmPatterico and his colleagues have been working overtime to put bad-guys where they belong.
/salute
Dave (445e97) — 5/4/2018 @ 9:07 pmNate, at the risk of being wrong again, arnt a large number of food stamp recipients working poor rather than not working/not looking? Therefore theyd show up as labor force participants anyway.
DavidK (3260a3) — 5/4/2018 @ 9:09 pmI just closed a great article on that DavidK, sadly 13 million able bodied not working at all.
Nate Ogden (223c65) — 5/4/2018 @ 9:14 pm48 how do they calculate our percentage of population incarcerated when we have so many illegals locked up and so many coming and going?
Nate Ogden (223c65) — 5/4/2018 @ 9:21 pm49 not a good read if you want to keep your blood pressure down before bed.
http://thefederalist.com/2018/05/03/6-10-able-bodied-food-stamp-recipients-not-work-change/
Nate Ogden (223c65) — 5/4/2018 @ 9:24 pmhad an idea
if we could get these 30,000 dirty fbi sluts to actually do some honest work we’d be off to a good start, right?
happyfeet (28a91b) — 5/4/2018 @ 9:31 pmhad an idea
if we could get these 30,000 dirty fbi sluts to actually do some honest work we’d be off to a good start, right?
happyfeet (28a91b) — 5/4/2018 @ 9:31 pm
I wish you had cable so we could real time break down Live PD. It’s on A&E if you ever get it.
Pinandpuller (5688d2) — 5/4/2018 @ 9:43 pmLook at the chart again. You’ll see that it is still going down till the election in 2016. Then it goes up sharply and settles down flat.
I believe the unemployment numbers are useless. They only show people who are receiving unemployment insurance. If you run out of unemployment insurance and still don’t have a job, you’re no longer counted. I’d be interested in a better breakdown of those who are no longer participating in the workforce. Are they mostly retirees? Are they able bodied people who are now on disability? Are they stay at home moms? Have they gone back to school? Are they living in their parents basement? What’s the make up?
I am one of those people who went on disability during the Obama administration in 2015. Unfortunately it’s not because I am healthy or can work any longer. I have Parkinson’s and it drastically affects my life every day. I can barely type and use dictation on my phone to type. Pain and fatigue are part of my daily routine.
Another thing that people don’t talk about is the number of people who no longer have full-time jobs, but have part-time jobs because of Obamacare.
Tanny O'Haley (47a8b4) — 5/4/2018 @ 9:49 pm@55
Check the chart on this page:
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000
You can compare month-to-month and see that things have not changed substantially since 2014.
Davethulhu (7e7722) — 5/4/2018 @ 10:15 pmTanny O’Haley (47a8b4) — 5/4/2018 @ 9:49 pm
felipe (023cc9) — 5/4/2018 @ 11:14 pmI am pleased to read a comment by you again, Tanny! This site and its readers have benefited from your kind work; your script has preserved many a mind from from arson. I am saddened to hear of your daily struggle. Please be assured of my prayers for you and those you love.
As long as their are base line budgets for every hack government department nothing will change.
mg (9e54f8) — 5/4/2018 @ 11:24 pmNote: we were never hoping Obama failed to right the economy — that would be idiotic. We were hoping he failed to transform us into a “social democracy” like Sweden. That he failed at both, while trying to do the latter, is not our fault.
Kevin M (752a26) — 5/5/2018 @ 12:06 amThe purpose of an economy is to provide goods and services with the minimal amount of inputs, including labor.
Perhaps. Not a system that distributes those goods by the amount of input received, such as ours, or you never get to the happy day due to too many people hanging from lampposts.
It brings up the interesting question of the Economics of Plenty, but it’s pretty much not useful as things are.
Kevin M (752a26) — 5/5/2018 @ 12:10 amOne also needs to look at the backstory here. Between WW2 and the mid-60’s the LFPR was about 58% and fairly steady. In the late 60’s it started a long upward climb, peaking at 67% in the 90’s.
The economy had it’s ups and downs during this time, but the rise in the LFPR was fairly steady, even during the malaise of the 70’s. It is actually pretty hard to tell the administration from the data 1970-1990.
The rise had to do with two things: The Baby Boomers replacing the much smaller “greatest generation” in the workforce, and women entering the workforce in large numbers. Evenafter the generations had rotated, more and more families had two members in the workforce to pay the bills that one worker had previously shouldered.
Now, we have Gen X, a much smaller generation, working while the Boomers start to retire. That didn’t play a big role during Obama’s terms, as only the leading edge of the boomers were involved. Now more and more boomers are retiring and this will offset economic gains somewhat. The current stagnation is a mixture of this.
I’d expect, though, that the participation rate to start to edge up if the huge Millennial generation starts to find jobs.
Kevin M (752a26) — 5/5/2018 @ 12:25 amThe labor participation numbers just show an aging population. Also, Trump 2 weeks ago, signed executive orders giving states the option to have a work requirement for welfare. Which originally was passed by the republicans in 1996.. The other one was for HUD to charge rent, to require work.
Also this quarters GDP of 2.1 will be revised as alll have been revised upwards as their is lagging data that isn’t tabulated or can’t be at the time the report is cut by the department.
EPWJ (479bfb) — 5/5/2018 @ 12:30 amFred Z’s crack about not wanting any participation is silly, but there’s a grain of truth there. Is it good if labor force participation increases because more people in a household have to work?
Here’s a chart showing WHY the participation rate went from 58% to 68% circa 1965-1990
http://assets.pewresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/12/2014/06/FT_dual-income-households-1960-20121.png
Kevin M (752a26) — 5/5/2018 @ 12:34 amHere’s a chart showing “discouraged workers” a number that is just now returning to historic levels
It is also interesting to note that the number of married-couple households where both spouses work has been falling since 2008. The BLS doesn’t make this data easy to find, though. This has a direct effect on the participation rate and may not have a negative economic impact.
Kevin M (752a26) — 5/5/2018 @ 12:59 amGood finds Kevin.
There are many factors, the labor participation rate may also fall as wages increase, several charts overlaid would be interesting
EPWJ (41bc5a) — 5/5/2018 @ 1:17 amLabor force participation was quite a bit lower in the 50’s and 60’s among women and a little higher among men when compared to today. Are these kinds of changes necessarily bad or can they just reflect the changing dynamics of some families? More men stay home with kids etc.?
noel (b4d580) — 5/5/2018 @ 3:40 amI have to agree with #32 above, you missed an opportunity to quote the master on the subject of the “real” unemployment number.
But the other responses are far funnier – responding to the inconsequential point of the unemployment numbers and missing the whole point of the post – that in the end this isn’t about Trump, it’s about the Trumpistas. How many of the commenters, here or elsewhere, will dig for some explanation for why the very things Obama was criticized for are now Good Things when it’s Trump in charge? My rough estimate would be approximately the same number of people who defended Obama for the same stuff they condemn Trump for. There’s no principle to be found here, it’s just rank partisanship and very few recognize themselves as worshippers of false idols.
Jerryskids (cfad51) — 5/5/2018 @ 4:30 amI would like to take this opportunity to wish our comrades and commissars noel, Tillman, Dave, Chulutu and others a very Happy 200th Birthday for your Great Leader and wish you whatever on your Long March To Next Tuesday.
The People’s refreshments will be served in Tractor Barn#6 under the watchful eye of the commissar Ben burn. Festivities will include photos of starving Ukrainians, Skeet-shooting Jews and hanging a few small business bourgeoisie. Looking forward to seeing all you comrade citizens there. A list of those not attending will be filed with the head of The People’s DNC, George Soros.
Rev.Hoagie (51bde3) — 5/5/2018 @ 5:43 amAdele is NOT 200 years old, Hoagie. She’s 30.
nk (dbc370) — 5/5/2018 @ 5:57 amThat’s quite disingenuous, Jerryskids. What gives you the right to assume because I support the president I would not be willing to criticize him? On this particular subject I will criticize Trump if he fails to do more to aide employment, reduce welfare and expand jobs. BTW, I don’t really believe the president (Obama, Trump or any other) has very much control over jobs (other than government jobs). But I’m willing to say that it appears to me that things are improving under Trump even if just slightly. That may be more to do with his tax and regulation policy. We’ll see. He can do more just by going out and “talking business” and the economy instead of stupid tweets.
I always keep count of stores and retail spots in my area that are empty. Comes from my business days when I was always looking for an opportunity. Anyway, I’ve noticed lately the number of empty stores for rent has diminished. More commercial space out here in my suburban enclave is being leased. That’s a good sign. Still not full occupancy but a move in the right direction. However, I don’t think Trump is renting out all the property. But maybe a positive business attitude promoted by Trump is helping. Who knows? I’m sure you comrade anti Trumpers would deny any Trump input whatsoever. But as I said, who knows?
Rev.Hoagie (51bde3) — 5/5/2018 @ 6:00 amHere’s Jackie Chan singing one of her songs (Rolling In The Dip). Yes, Jackie Chan. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z2hvxK2P97Y
nk (dbc370) — 5/5/2018 @ 6:02 am“Comrades and commissars”. Ad hominem #1,984 for the Rev.Hoagie. But it’s his way of describing everyone to the left of him… about 98% of voters.
And then, of course, he will sternly warn us not to call him “Trumpkin” or “Trumpola” because it’s so outrageous. Oh, the thought of it!
noel (b4d580) — 5/5/2018 @ 6:20 amI’ve seen the graph going back to the 1950s. It peaked around 2000, right before the tech boom went bust, and has been going down ever since, flattening 2014 forward. Some of that decline has to come from a baby-boom generation entering retirement, which makes sense since the ratio is defined as the number of people in the labor force as a percentage of the civilian noninstitutional population 16 years old and over, but there are indeed other issues relating to the structure of our economy. I don’t think it’s all just about increases in disability. Another factor is stagnating female participation arising from the costs of child care. The number of prime-age men has been going down for decades, with the least-educated participating the least (link). Note that there is lower percentages of male college attendees and graduates relative to women these days.
Paul Montagu (e6130e) — 5/5/2018 @ 6:34 amThe other issue is that wages are still stagnant, maybe because there’s a lag effect or maybe because there’s some productivity slack in the economy.
I am concerned about the labor participation rate, but as long as we reduce government dependency roles, there’s not much else we can do other than encourage economic growth.
That pressure will increase wages till they reach an equilibrium that will justify people taking jobs for the wage offered.Just needs to be done without government interference.
NJRob (9d9100) — 5/5/2018 @ 6:35 amHappy Cinco De Mayo!!!
Don’t you dare put on that sombrero!!
https://www.campusreform.org/?ID=10859
harkin (32652f) — 5/5/2018 @ 6:38 amSo, no getting plastered on Jose Cuervo and rolling in the taco dip?
nk (dbc370) — 5/5/2018 @ 6:46 amMichael Barone…
“Newton’s third law of motion states that in nature for every action there is an equal and opposite reaction. It can operate in politics, too. Or as Harvard law professor Jack Goldsmith recently wrote, “It is part of Trump’s evil genius that he elevates himself by inducing his critics to behave like him.“
Call it Trump Derangement Syndrome, and recognize it for what it is: something that could end up snatching defeat from the jaws of victory for the Democratic Party once again in 2018 and 2020.
Signs of that possibility are apparent in the polls. President Trump’s job approval has remained low, by historic standards, but it has also remained pretty steady — and has been rising, just a bit, in recent weeks. . . .
Trump’s recent upswing has his approval at 43.5 percent — well below 50 percent, but far higher than the 35 percent President George W. Bush had before the Republicans’ “thumping” in 2006.
Perhaps this reflects the economic upswing since the Republican tax bill passed in December. Perhaps it reflects presidential initiatives on Korea, Iran, China, or the respect shown him by the leaders of France, Saudi Arabia, Japan, Germany, and others. He may be uncouth, some may think, but he’s getting results.
And perhaps it reflects the Democrats’ Trump Derangement Syndrome.
You had the spectacle of every Democrat on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and 42 Democrats on the floor opposing Trump’s nominee for secretary of state — a nominee, Mike Pompeo, for whose confirmation as CIA director some of them voted and who has been getting good marks at Langley.
That’s as unprecedented as Trump’s insulting tweets, and less fact-based than many of them, too. Some Democrats complained about Pompeo’s stands on gay issues. But they’re the party that blocked for seven months the nomination of a gay ambassador to Germany, Ric Grenell.
Another spectacle of Trump Derangement Syndrome was last Saturday’s White House Correspondents’ dinner where a comedienne’s vitriolic monologue and mean-spirited attacks on the physical appearance of Trump’s press secretary validated his decisions this year and last not to attend. The event only further undermined the credibility of the anti-Trump press.
Its credibility may be further reduced if, as seems likely, special counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation ends with no finding of “collusion” between Russia and the Trump campaign. Mueller’s questions for the president leaked to the press, if accurate, indicate that he has reluctantly concluded as much and is looking now for evidence that he can spin up as obstruction of justice.
Much of the press, notably CNN, have treated the Russian collusion story as a second Watergate, and many Democrats amuse their friends with little quips assuming Trump administration policy is set in Moscow. It’s not very funny any more.
The “collusion” that seems more likely to have occurred is between President Barack Obama administration intelligence and law enforcement personnel and the news media to push the Russia collusion story largely or solely on the evidence of the Clinton-financed Steele dossier.”
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/columnists/michael-barone-democrats-dangerous-case-of-trump-derangement-syndrome
Colonel Haiku (2601c0) — 5/5/2018 @ 7:28 am68. I hope that Hoagie realizes that he’s coming across as some raving lunatic. Get a grip, dude. Take your meds, whatever it takes.
Tillman (a95660) — 5/5/2018 @ 7:40 amMichael Barone via Haiku – spot on.
The most relevant thing about TDS is that he could not have been elected without TDS.
America saw it and said “Trump is bad but if this delusion and corruption are the alternative, Go Trump!”
harkin (32652f) — 5/5/2018 @ 8:01 am“So, no getting plastered on Jose Cuervo and rolling in the taco dip?
I’m half Latino so I will wait till noon to start celebrating.
harkin (32652f) — 5/5/2018 @ 8:04 amStephen Miller
harkin (32652f) — 5/5/2018 @ 8:07 am@redsteeze
John Kerry siding with and strategizing with the world’s largest sponsor of terror groups to undermine his own country’s foreign policy is the most John Kerry thing ever.
79. …while knob polishing Trump humpers like Kurt Schlichter say “I’m glad that Trump committed adultery.”
Gryph (08c844) — 5/5/2018 @ 8:12 amTotally agree. How do we get Congress to fix it? Government dependency is a choice. Congress needs to eliminate the programs and incentives that have transformed the safety net into a hammock for some and a spider web for others.
crazy (5c5b07) — 5/5/2018 @ 8:13 am83. “Government dependency is a choice.”
A choice that government encourages, and will never stop encouraging. For Congress to fix the problem, they would have to give up their power. Politicians will not give up their power willingly, though I do believe they can be made to do so peacably.
Gryph (08c844) — 5/5/2018 @ 8:25 amRev Hoagie
I saw some refer to never trumpers as PUI’s
Putin’s usefull idiots
Or
Pelosi’s usefull idiots
EPWJ (6b4f7e) — 5/5/2018 @ 8:28 amOne Hoagie is worth more than 2 dozen pinkos.
ropelight (0626c4) — 5/5/2018 @ 8:38 amWell EPWJ, what name should be hung on folks who side with abortionists, anti white racists, anti semites, gun grabbers (a term which now has come of age), anti Christians, pro illegals and other anti Trump people? They certainly can’t be our allies if that list of nefarious ne’er-do-wells is on their team, now can they? So what are they? They can no longer be conservatives since conservatives wouldn’t be caught dead with abortion people and gun grabbers. They can’t be Republicans because Republicans are for legal immigration and support Israel. So, what are they? I think they have crossed over to the left and joined the dems. They sure act and talk like dems (or worse). Or maybe they want to start their own party like the Know Nothing Party which incidentally would be an appropriate name.
Rev.Hoagie (51bde3) — 5/5/2018 @ 8:50 amGeorge Soros as… teh Budapestilence…
Colonel Haiku (2601c0) — 5/5/2018 @ 8:52 amper·i·ne·um: ˌperəˈnēəm
noun: ANATOMY
definition: the area between the anus and the scrotum or vulva
Synonyms: ’tain’t, trundle, tickling Gomez, krinkely tart, gryph, gryphon, snarse, bonch, bung knuckle
Colonel Haiku (2601c0) — 5/5/2018 @ 8:55 amAlso see DMZ…
Colonel Haiku (2601c0) — 5/5/2018 @ 8:56 am84. Yes, how?
crazy (5c5b07) — 5/5/2018 @ 8:56 am61. Finding a job isn’t the issue, with 6+ million I can’t help but find them any time I step outside or turn on the TV.
The issue is millennials and others taking them. Tens of millions have found a comfortable survival with no or minimal employment.
Nate Ogden (88ffef) — 5/5/2018 @ 9:29 amThere are many ways that statistic could be affected by long-term trends.
In the last 50 years, life-expectancy has increased from around 70 years to about 78 years – an increase of more than 10%. The potential labor force is defined as anyone 16 or older but there is no upper age limit, so as people live longer there will inevitably be more retirees included in the denominator. (People in elderly care facilities are excluded, but that number doesn’t reflect the full population of retirees).
For awhile, entry of women into the workforce competed with this trend, but when the increase of female participation slowed or stopped, the overall rate would have to start declining due to longevity, even if nothing else changed in the economy.
Increased enrollment in post-secondary education will also put downward pressure on the participation rate (some, but not all, people going to college or trade school work while doing so). According to the National Center for Education Statistics: “Between 2000 and 2015, total undergraduate enrollment in degree-granting postsecondary institutions increased by 30 percent (from 13.2 million to 17.0 million).” Interestingly, as this graph shows, enrollment increased enormously between 2000 and 2011 or so, before leveling off around the same time that labor force participation stabilized.
Dave (445e97) — 5/5/2018 @ 9:47 amStatements like this:
DRJ (15874d) — 5/5/2018 @ 10:11 amNot to mention this, where Trump critics are demonized as slime:
DRJ (15874d) — 5/5/2018 @ 10:12 amGood try DRJ, but you are dead wrong. My statement about deserting the army has absolutely zero relation to criticizing Trump. I don’t know if you were in the military but I was and we always criticized the “general” but if we deserted we could be shot. Do you understand the difference between a disagreement and a betrayal? You should.
BTW, your reading comprehension is terrible. You couldn’t even figure out the above reference which is clear as day and you somehow accuse me of “demonizing” Trump critics as slime. I stated they were “siding with that group of slime” not that they themselves were slime. Read for god sake, man! However, if you’re feeling guilty perhaps some introspection is in order.
Rev.Hoagie (51bde3) — 5/5/2018 @ 10:29 amLook what Trump’s done for North Korea already:\
Rev.Hoagie (51bde3) — 5/5/2018 @ 10:33 amhttps://i2.wp.com/www.powerlineblog.com/ed-assets/2018/05/Nork-McDonalds.jpeg?resize=580%2C422
Chart from #64, preserved:
https://i.imgur.com/SSia6kO.gif
Kevin M (752a26) — 5/5/2018 @ 10:34 am95… run with coyotes, you will get fleas. Many #NeverTrumpers have the same goal as the leftists Hogie has described.
The goal is to bring down the duly elected president.
Colonel Haiku (2601c0) — 5/5/2018 @ 10:37 amLabor participation is a sore spot, but wages are climbing, and food stamp use is down https://www.ers.usda.gov/webdocs/publications/88074/eib-190.pdf?v=43174
See page 4 or just read the table of contents.
The labor market I see is tight. New hires are getting higher wages and existing employees are getting a bump to keep them ahead of the new folks.
Entry laborers can get $15HR cash to manicure pot in the formerly vacant flower growing greenhouses down in Carpinteria.
The wealthy have begun to spend higher again, so I guess they feel good about their income prospects and maintaining their standard of life.
My view from here is that there is plenty of work available if you are willing to work hard. The illegal workers in the physical labor section still are outperforming, so the pace of the worker needs to be fast or he/she will get dropped. Even with food stamp use down, there must be enough assistance being used by the parts of the demographics that should be choosing to enter the workforce but don’t because they have learned they cannot compete
steveg (a9dcab) — 5/5/2018 @ 10:50 amAll I know Colonel, is I am around several leftists at church, my club and the VFW and they all say the same things and use the same phrases as the neverTrumpers here do. When I hear a guy I know to be a die-hard leftist a c-hair short of Stalin spouting the same sh!t as some guys here I wonder where the “conservative” blog went.
Rev.Hoagie (51bde3) — 5/5/2018 @ 10:57 amThe decline of “discouraged workers” to historic levels suggests that the employment rate now is comparable to the employment rate before 2008. The differences in participation rates (2008 and now) are NOT due to discouraged workers, but to other factors.
Some previously “discouraged” workers might now be retired, or have found an accommodation (e.g. child rearing). Forty percent of the Boomers are now 66 or older. It was zero percent in 2008. OTOH, the oldest Millennials (the “echo boomers”) are in their early thirties, and presumably employed for about as long as the Boomers have been retiring. This may be balancing.
Another interesting fact is that the participation rate for men, ages 25-54, has been falling for decades and was only slightly faster after 2008. It has turned up recently.
What all this says to me is that for the past few decades, women have been replacing men in the workforce, probably by choice. The drop in the overall rate has come because female workers left the force, and/or failed to enter the force at earlier rates.
In any event, IT IS BOTH TRUE that the unemployment rate in the Obama era needed to be adjusted for the participation rate and that the current unemployment rate doesn’t have the same defects.
Kevin M (752a26) — 5/5/2018 @ 11:02 amPlease read the link, Hoagie, before you decide who is having problems with reading comprehension.
DRJ (15874d) — 5/5/2018 @ 11:09 amAnd, again, if the rise in the participation rate 1965-1990 was primarily due to second earners in a household, is that a good thing? The answer is of course mixed. If the second worker was to make ends meet, that’s not very good. If it was because both spouses had/wanted careers, that reflects a positive social change.
Kevin M (752a26) — 5/5/2018 @ 11:10 amAnd please don’t question whether I am a conservative just because I disagree with some of the things you say or the way you say it.
Low oxygenation from asthma can make me angry. Is it possible COPD does that to you?
DRJ (15874d) — 5/5/2018 @ 11:11 amFWIW I avoid commenting when that happens. I hope you will consider doing the same.
DRJ (15874d) — 5/5/2018 @ 11:12 am101… Hoagie… that is true, all of their protestations to the contrary. They’ve joined the din, they take their shots as they can. Some of these TrueCons hang around here all day making the same allegations that are made in every corner of the media, which is decidedly leftwing.
These same folks whine about what they characterize as “Trump propaganda” from Fox News. Which commands, what?… 1% at most of the viewing audience at any given time.
Even that is too much for them, but they be cool about CNN, CBS, NBC, MSNBC, ABC, etc.
Colonel Haiku (2601c0) — 5/5/2018 @ 11:15 amLook what Trump’s done for North Korea already:\
https://i2.wp.com/www.powerlineblog.com/ed-assets/2018/05/Nork-McDonalds.jpeg?resize=580%2C422
Rev.Hoagie (51bde3) — 5/5/2018 @ 10:33 am
Good grief! Look what Hoagie thinks is real.
nk (dbc370) — 5/5/2018 @ 11:17 amDRJ is right and Hoagie is wrong.
John Hitchcock (05d3ed) — 5/5/2018 @ 11:17 amIn other news, water is wet and the sun rises in the Philippines before it rises in Philadelphia.
Keep fighting the good fight, Hoagie!
Colonel Haiku (2601c0) — 5/5/2018 @ 11:17 am“Well EPWJ, what name should be hung on folks who side with abortionists, anti white racists, anti semites, gun grabbers (a term which now has come of age), anti Christians, pro illegals and other anti Trump people? “
Since they tag everyone more conservative than Susan Collins as the ‘Alt-Right’, I prefer the term Control-Left.
harkin (32652f) — 5/5/2018 @ 11:18 amI prefer “Control-Alt-Delete”. Google it if you must.
Kevin M (752a26) — 5/5/2018 @ 11:20 amBTW, tons of info about SSDI over the last few decades. It doesn’t really seem to be the culprit either, in part because the benefit ends at retirement age.
Kevin M (752a26) — 5/5/2018 @ 11:26 am“Calling everyone who supports the president a Trump Humper or knob polisher is pretty lame, don’t you think? Kind of lazy too.”
FYP
harkin (32652f) — 5/5/2018 @ 11:34 amOT- 57 years ago today, May 5, 1961, Alan Shepard was successfully launched from Florida’s Cape Canaveral to become America’s first astronaut in space, riding a Redstone rocket on a 15 minute sub-orbital flight and piloting his Mercury spacecraft, named Freedom 7, to a safe Atlantic splashdown. Incredibly, just three weeks later, President Kennedy would commit the United States to sending men to the moon by the end of the decade and returning them safely to earth.
‘That other America; they did things differently there.’ – Dan Rather, CBS News, July, 1989
DCSCA (797bc0) — 5/5/2018 @ 11:36 amThis is improper military conduct, Hoagie, and it wasn’t lawyers.
DRJ (15874d) — 5/5/2018 @ 11:42 amThe wealthy have begun to spend higher again, so I guess they feel good about their income prospects and maintaining their standard of life.
The stock market has been bery bery good to them lately.
Kevin M (752a26) — 5/5/2018 @ 11:54 amSo “Jose Jimenez” was launched on Cinco de Mayo? History has a sense of humor.
Dave (445e97) — 5/5/2018 @ 11:58 amDRJ
First, after being in a coma last month when a rare infection closed my wind pipe, and even today had a spasm that made me fight for breath, I have a whole new appreciation for asthma and COPD sufferers. I am lucky my condition improves, asthma sufferers and C O P D usually don’t. You have my deepest sympathy and respect.
As far as HIPPA goes, Jackson is in charge of everyone’s health, the media keeps mislabeling him the presidents doctor, that’s not true, he’s in charge of all the doctors treating all the family members and support staff of the president and the Vice President and their security details. I believe I saw but cannot confirm that the staff Jackson was in charge of numbers about 50 and includes several doctors. The health of the president, the Vice President and their immediate family is probably a national security issue. HIPPA rights Are now almost routinely signed away by patients because it’s odious, it was meant in a time when company personnel submitted claims for their employees and knew what injuries, diseases, or other issues they have. That was the 80’s version of insurance coverage. Now most companies don’t process the claims, don’t have company administered physicals, and don’t get a detailed by employee claims summary.
This by the way was not the first time she accused a superior of misconduct and in I think 2013, got into trouble for several incidences.
EPWJ (6b4f7e) — 5/5/2018 @ 12:03 pmA day earlier and it would have been “Star Wars Day” (May the Fourth be with you)
Kevin M (752a26) — 5/5/2018 @ 12:04 pmHere’s an idea, let’s not think about day to day rises and drops in polls and election prospects, and praise Trump when he does something right and criticize him when he does something wrong.
All Patterico’s post really does is make an apples to apples comparison of the unemployment and participation rates. Nothing wrong with a little logical consistency. You could describe it somewhat more favorably to Trump because the steady decline in participation from the Obama years seems to have stopped. But the 3.9% unemployment rate is as misleading now as it would have been before January 20, 2017. There does seem to be a bit more of an optimistic air these days, let’s hope the next few months show participation going up.
RL formerly in Glendale (40f5aa) — 5/5/2018 @ 12:05 pmthe sleazy men and women of the FBI need to hang onto their jobs at all costs
nobody’s gonna hire these skanky lying cowardly criminals
they’ve literally ruined themselves
happyfeet (28a91b) — 5/5/2018 @ 12:11 pmRL, as I showed above, the “discouraged worker” portion of the labor force rate was abnormal in 2010 and is back to normal now. This pretty much drives a stake through Pat’s argument.
Kevin M (752a26) — 5/5/2018 @ 12:12 pmAlso I just wanted to say this.
Dr Pena didn’t complain when these incidents took place. She had a MILTARY duty to report that the doctor who is in charge of the PRESIDENT of the United States (in fact she said many the incidents happened during Obama’s presidency)Nyasia overdosing people drunk on duty.
It was her MILITARY duty.
Oh she only reported it when he was nominated.
EPWJ (6b4f7e) — 5/5/2018 @ 12:16 pmshe didn’t report it per se either
she went to a bunch of #resistance trump-hating senators like tester and isakson and told them she’d do anything so could to kneecap Admiral Party Boy
gack could the US Navy be more sleazy
happyfeet (28a91b) — 5/5/2018 @ 12:22 pmHF,
These claims by Pena went back years, in other words the safety of the president, the Vice President, the fbi senior White House staff, their families, and their security detail, were never reported. Until trump nominated her boss.
Wow
EPWJ (6b4f7e) — 5/5/2018 @ 12:28 pmThat’s pretty much my philosophy.
Every day that Trump decides to remain in office he is doing something wrong, and I criticize him for it.
On the day he leaves office by resigning or taking his own life, I will praise him.
Dave (445e97) — 5/5/2018 @ 12:28 pmUntil trump nominated her boss.
we’re learning that the dirty mattis military is all full up with resistance trash like Jenny Pena
this is the obama legacy
he polluted our once-respectable military to where it’s just as filth-dirty as the IRS anymore
happyfeet (28a91b) — 5/5/2018 @ 12:30 pmhomeland security lol
happyfeet (28a91b) — 5/5/2018 @ 12:38 pmHey, DRJ… Remember when I would suggest that “ideological purity” was a smokescreen for “hypocritical partisanship”? People said very unkind things about me then.
Look at those people now.
The question is always: what do you believe in? What are you willing to compromise about?
And, of course, do you vote. Most of the people carrying on since Trump’s election did vote, of course. But not everyone.
But this business of calling someone a “leftist” when you disagree with them is just silly.
We used to deride the left for being all about slogans and stupid name-calling. And here the right is doing it too. It’s different now? I don’t think so.
Again, it comes down to what you believe in—and how you treat others. That’s why I stand with Patterico. And you.
Simon Jester (c8876d) — 5/5/2018 @ 12:46 pmThere ya go DRJ. Good ole comrade Dave says only Trump’s death will appease him. There’s a real patriot for ya. A commie, a would be assassin, a traitor. That’s the kind of slime to which I referred.
Rev.Hoagie (51bde3) — 5/5/2018 @ 12:49 pmI’m amused that Dave believes himself a moral person while fantasizing the death of our president. Nothing says morality like murder.
Rev.Hoagie (51bde3) — 5/5/2018 @ 12:51 pmI’m not going to comment about trump anymore.
Pat said I raised his blood pressure, DRJ has health issues that can be aggravated.
These are two fine people, who have my respect.
It’s not worth it folks, it’s not worth hurting people.
I’m done
EPWJ (6b4f7e) — 5/5/2018 @ 12:57 pmIn other news, today is world naked gardening day.
I didn’t know that there was a naked gardening day.
I didn’t know it was very popular in Arizona
I didn’t know that some cactus needles can reach 4 inches long
I bet the Phoenix hospitals emergency rooms had extra personnel scheduled for today
EPWJ (6b4f7e) — 5/5/2018 @ 1:03 pm@118. First message radioed to Shepard at liftoff: “You’re on you way, Jose!” – Deke Slayton
DCSCA (797bc0) — 5/5/2018 @ 1:11 pmQ: What is 3 miles long and has an IQ of 165?
A: teh
Colonel Haiku (2601c0) — 5/5/2018 @ 1:15 pmCinco de MayoSt. Patrick’s Day ParadeEPWJ (6b4f7e) — 5/5/2018 @ 12:57 pm Bravo! Well said.
felipe (023cc9) — 5/5/2018 @ 1:24 pmWe need more of this – Paying off people’s medical debt for pennies on the dollar and less government security ala Medicare, Obamacare, etc.
crazy (5c5b07) — 5/5/2018 @ 1:26 pmIf it were not for the profanity filter, the comment section would be a good substitute for an episode of Deadwood. Chose yer character.
felipe (023cc9) — 5/5/2018 @ 1:27 pm139. I’m pretty sure there isn’t a profanity filter here. Only a short list of words that automatically get kicked to moderation. I have yet to get in trouble or be moderated for calling out Trump humping knob polishers and other manners of assorted douchebags, so I’m pretty sure the standards around here are pretty loose.
Gryph (08c844) — 5/5/2018 @ 1:30 pm133. Good sentiment. But you’re in a minority. Kurt Schlichter takes delight in hurting people, and my straw-poll-type experience tells me that most Trump humpers are in his camp. Good thing the plural of “anecdote” isn’t “data,” huh?
Gryph (08c844) — 5/5/2018 @ 1:33 pmcrazy (5c5b07) — 5/5/2018 @ 1:26 pm
Wonderful, if it can be kept a secret, telling only those interested in funding the effort. But trumpeting this to gen pop will only encourage those in arrears who could pay their debt.
felipe (023cc9) — 5/5/2018 @ 1:33 pm131-132. Speaking only for myself, I’m not naive enough to think that getting rid of Trump, whether by resignation or otherwise, will cure what ales our country. We need a drastic change in our electorate. What are the odds of that?
Gryph (08c844) — 5/5/2018 @ 1:34 pmGryph (08c844) — 5/5/2018 @ 1:30 pm
felipe (023cc9) — 5/5/2018 @ 1:38 pmYour call for precision notwithstanding, moderation is a filter.
144. I suppose that depends on how you define “filter.” But there you go.
Gryph (08c844) — 5/5/2018 @ 1:40 pmMr. Schlichter’s a patriot and a vocal supporter of our president, President Donald Trump.
He’s not afraid of doing provocative twitters, so sooner or later douchebag Jack Dorsey will censor him.
This is how America do anymore.
happyfeet (28a91b) — 5/5/2018 @ 1:40 pmSwearengen: “What’s that, Wu?”
Wu: “Corksoakah!”
Colonel Haiku (2601c0) — 5/5/2018 @ 1:42 pm146. I didn’t realize you had to advocate for adultery and bathe in the tears of your “enemies” in order to be a patriot and support Trump. But Orwell was right; in these times of universal deceit, telling the truth is an act of revolution.
Gryph (08c844) — 5/5/2018 @ 1:44 pmWe got it teh first time, ’tain’t, er… gryph.
Colonel Haiku (2601c0) — 5/5/2018 @ 1:52 pmAdultery’s when you make sexy on somebody who’s not the one you married.
happyfeet (28a91b) — 5/5/2018 @ 1:52 pm150. Right. Which was what happened when Trump schtupped Stormy Daniels within days of the birth of his son. Which in-turn is what Kurt Schlichter was actively praising. Are you going to sit there and tell me that Trump’s d’alliance with Stormy was not adultery?
I understand what Pat meant by “Clintonian” for sure.
Gryph (08c844) — 5/5/2018 @ 1:57 pmFor example George H.W. Bush did a ton of adultery on Barbara.
Other people who do adultery all up in it are include Bill Clinton (herpes), noted propaganda slut Carl Bernstein, and the horny horny men and women of the sleazy FBI.
happyfeet (28a91b) — 5/5/2018 @ 1:57 pm149.
Colonel is still here
Gryph (08c844) — 5/5/2018 @ 1:58 pmwith witticisms galore
but still no haiku
152. Indeed. I can’t argue that if (since) it’s true. At no point do I ever remember conservatives actively praising adultery, so I’m not sure what your point is in pointing all that out. I’m pretty sure that doesn’t even count as a tu quoque argument, considering that it’s not really an argument at all. You’ll have to do a better job than that of distracting me from my central point, Trump humper.
Gryph (08c844) — 5/5/2018 @ 1:59 pmI’m just taking it all in Mr. Gryph.
happyfeet (28a91b) — 5/5/2018 @ 2:01 pmYou’re deranged. Get some mental health help.
Looking forward to my self-imposed vacation starting tomorrow.
NJRob (ea4bbc) — 5/5/2018 @ 2:06 pm153… use teh 8th Grade Mean Gurlz Script, gryp
Colonel Haiku (2601c0) — 5/5/2018 @ 2:10 pm“Rockefeller had competed against Goldwater in the primaries, labeling his followers kooks and declining to mask his contempt for their movement… Rockefeller [was called] a ‘wife swopper.’ Goldwater fans asked… “Do you want a Leader or a Lover in the White House?”
Sound familiar, Trumpsters sand Trumphumpers?
Welcome to 1964. History rhymes; what goes around comes around. It’s can be your party now.
http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2016/05/never_goldwater_the_failed_attempt_to_wrest_the_1964_nominatio_from.html
DCSCA (797bc0) — 5/5/2018 @ 2:15 pm157. That script doesn’t prevent me from seeing what you write. Just covers it up unless I click on it.
Gryph (08c844) — 5/5/2018 @ 2:20 pmThat’s impressive, Hoagie. You called Dzve a slime at 5/4/2018 @ 9:24 am, 27 hours before he left that comment about Trump.
I think you call people slime if they disagree with you.
DRJ (15874d) — 5/5/2018 @ 2:22 pmHowever, I don’t hope Trump dies, much less commits suicide. I hope he learns to delegate to other people as he has done with judicial nominations.
DRJ (15874d) — 5/5/2018 @ 2:25 pmDRJ, always remember that a hoagie is a sandwich full of processed meats, empty carbs– and cheese.
DCSCA (797bc0) — 5/5/2018 @ 2:25 pm@161. DRJ, just in case, have you checked to see if the Trump Doral Washington has open dated reservations for early booking deals for state funeral packages– you know to get a jump on having the biggest crowds in history for that, too? 😉
DCSCA (797bc0) — 5/5/2018 @ 2:30 pm156- I’ll be joining you Rob. This place has become toxic.
DRJ, I notice you haven’t voiced any problem with the now regular occurrence of calling other commenters that disagree “knob polishers”. Why is that?
the Bas (3bcea0) — 5/5/2018 @ 2:37 pmi like sandwiches and a hoagie’s a particularly fine sandwich
but yes it’s a sometimes food to be sure
this is why I love President Trump
happyfeet (28a91b) — 5/5/2018 @ 2:38 pmI don’t like any name-calling, the Bas. I wish everyone would stop.
DRJ (15874d) — 5/5/2018 @ 2:39 pmwe need to have a jar and when someone does name-calling on somebody they have to put a note in the jar about something awesome President Trump did in the past week
this will help the nevertrumpers behave more better
happyfeet (28a91b) — 5/5/2018 @ 2:41 pmBy the way, the Bas, my original comment 94 wasn’t about name-calling. It was about Hoagie’s statement about his willingness to criticize Trump. I don’t think Hoagie criticizes Trump much, nor do I think he is open to other people criticizing Trump.
DRJ (15874d) — 5/5/2018 @ 2:49 pmcomrade Hoagie is not sufficiently critical of President Trump
this is going into the notebook Mr. Hoagie
happyfeet (28a91b) — 5/5/2018 @ 2:51 pmI think many Trump supporters object to criticism of Trump, IMO because they believe it is counter-productive and undermines Trump’s support among Republicans. That may be true in a narrow sense, but I think criticism help us identify which policies and actions are worth supporting and which aren’t. It isn’t productive to support GOP leaders no matter what they say or do, just because they aren’t Democrats.
DRJ (15874d) — 5/5/2018 @ 2:55 pmIsn’t that how we ended up with the GOPe?
DRJ (15874d) — 5/5/2018 @ 2:56 pmIt can be very productive to support President Trump because he’s beleaguered by fascist lilliputians.
happyfeet (28a91b) — 5/5/2018 @ 2:57 pm170 DRJ instead of guessing why not ask?
I have seen very little objection to criticism of Trumps policies…..mainly because so little of the criticism is about his policies. Overwhelming majority of the criticism is personal and Nutting.
It would be nice for a change if the never trump could occasionally discuss policy instead of his morals, honesty, or skin tone.
Nate Ogden (223c65) — 5/5/2018 @ 3:06 pmInsulting
Nate Ogden (223c65) — 5/5/2018 @ 3:07 pm“ I’m pretty sure there isn’t a profanity filter here. Only a short list of words that automatically get kicked to moderation.”
So pure.
__ _
“I prefer “Control-Alt-Delete”. Google it if you must.“
Sooner or later they always get to liquidation for people who disagree, be it the National Socialists, the Soviets or the Chicomms.
Belated Communist Victims Day – becoming Venezuela is easy if you believe their promises!
harkin (32652f) — 5/5/2018 @ 3:07 pmas long as there’s an active coup being perpetrated on the duly elected president of the United States by the sleazy slutty men and women of the FBI, that’s the first-order business of politics
second order criticisms are tacky because, advertently or not, they inherently leverage the political weakness the dirty FBI and the Rosenstasi are inflicting, solely to advance a political agenda
in other words right now nevertrump is very much in league with the gestapo FBI
and it’s not a good look
once the coup is put down we can go back to a healthier politics of reasoned criticism
but right now that’s simply not possible
happyfeet (28a91b) — 5/5/2018 @ 3:10 pmDRJ @170
Except when the “criticism” runs 18 months straight, 24/7/365 about everything Trump did in his life. At that point it’s not criticism, it’s an obsession, a pathology or a persecution. I was pissed at Trump for the Omnibus bill and I really wanted to discuss it here but it is so damn toxic trying to debate policy comes after the daily b!tchfest about the latest Stormy news. Guys, he banged the broad 12 years ago or something. Give it a rest. We have elections to win.
Rev.Hoagie (51bde3) — 5/5/2018 @ 3:10 pmTry this.
DRJ (15874d) — 5/5/2018 @ 3:16 pmAnne Coulter, F*ckhead Carlson, and the sage of the Schuylkill triggered:http://dailycaller.com/2018/05/05/president-trump-celebrates-cinco-de-mayo-by-lauding-significant-contributions-of-mexican-americans/
urbanleftbehind (24e2ff) — 5/5/2018 @ 3:17 pmcowardly lickspittle John McCain is turning his own funeral into a #resist rally
good lord
a shallow twat to the death
happyfeet (28a91b) — 5/5/2018 @ 3:18 pmEven Hoagie was disappointed in Trump then, but he seems to have recovered.
DRJ (15874d) — 5/5/2018 @ 3:19 pmlol
too hilarious
as one of his final acts coward-twat John McCain throws his ever-faithful lapdog Sarah Palin under the bus
happyfeet (28a91b) — 5/5/2018 @ 3:29 pmOf course, I have said many times before that if Trump would repent of his evil acts and show sincere contrition for them, I would also praise him for that. It might even convince me of the existence of God. But he is getting worse, not better.
Every executive order, bill or appointment he signs instead of his letter of resignation is an obvious mistake, and should be called out as such.
Dave (445e97) — 5/5/2018 @ 3:29 pmI can’t imagine why he doesn’t want to invite the draft-dodger who insulted him and every other PoW who went through hell in the service of this country.
If he has granddaughters or great-granddaughters, he might have had their safety in mind too.
Dave (445e97) — 5/5/2018 @ 3:40 pmOT but tip of the cap to all those dirty Trumpsters crawling in the midfield mud at Churchill Downs for the 144th Kentucky Derby. Did the ‘Run for the Roses’ midfield scene back in ’77. Mint Julips at 9 AM… best memory: Sterling Beer and a local yelling at 5 AM: “This here’s Louisville! Y’all gotta party!”
DCSCA (797bc0) — 5/5/2018 @ 3:44 pmfunerals aren’t by invitation
that’s just tacky
but that’s our johnny
happyfeet (28a91b) — 5/5/2018 @ 3:44 pmThe odds that Trump would have attended, even if invited, were zero. Except for Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump doesn’t forgive his enemies.
You would have cheered him for snubbing McCain, and are just irritated because now he won’t get the opportunity…
Dave (445e97) — 5/5/2018 @ 3:52 pm184, a Beer distro heiress might be of little value to a teetotaler, but the one you speak of could also decide to go age appropriate if you catch my drift.
urbanleftbehind (24e2ff) — 5/5/2018 @ 3:52 pmhow adorbs is this article here
happyfeet (28a91b) — 5/5/2018 @ 3:55 pmkeep scrolling
how america is that LOVE it
happyfeet (28a91b) — 5/5/2018 @ 3:58 pmRe: Derby. Justify wins in a mudder without a spot on him and shatters the Apollo Curse.
What a freaking ride!
harkin (32652f) — 5/5/2018 @ 4:02 pm@186. A competitor to the end, Mr. Feet; wants to beat Lil’Marco’s record for not showing up to work.
DCSCA (797bc0) — 5/5/2018 @ 4:04 pm“Anne Coulter, F*ckhead Carlson, and the sage of the Schuylkill triggered:”
One of the enduring fallacies of the Left is that conservatives are against legal immigration.
harkin (32652f) — 5/5/2018 @ 4:06 pmHoagie: “At that point it’s not criticism, it’s an obsession, a pathology or a persecution”
Look at the silver lining, their pathology made the difference in the election. It was so obviously delusional, unbalanced and hateful that people went to the polls to oppose it.
harkin (32652f) — 5/5/2018 @ 4:09 pmdevastating exposé of the Rosenstasi DOJ and the lickspittle men and women of the FBI here
happyfeet (28a91b) — 5/5/2018 @ 4:20 pmDRJ I’m disappointed frequently but I don’t run around crying abut it day in and day out like a ten year old.
Rev.Hoagie (51bde3) — 5/5/2018 @ 4:27 pmIf only Hillary had won. Then nobody would care about what’s his name. We’d be too busy avoiding the thought police and digging fallout shelters. This will pass…
crazy (5c5b07) — 5/5/2018 @ 4:52 pmOTOH if you’d rather fight with people who are otherwise allies in limited Constitutional government then by all means, carry on.
crazy (5c5b07) — 5/5/2018 @ 4:56 pmDave, et al
I get it that you don’t like Trump. Does this mean that you reject his disruption? That you want to go back to the status quo ante, where the bipartisan party was kicking the can down the street pretending they would never run out of room?
And for those that say “But he hasn’t done anything about entitlements”, I will point out that Ryan tried and all right-thinking conservatives were against it, and succeeded only in preventing any reform.
Kevin M (752a26) — 5/5/2018 @ 5:00 pmWe need more of this – Paying off people’s medical debt for pennies on the dollar and less government security ala Medicare, Obamacare, etc.
Yeah, because nothing says “LIBERTY” more than stiffing medical professionals for their services.
Kevin M (752a26) — 5/5/2018 @ 5:05 pm164. If the shoe fits, Bas. My continuing presence here is indicative of the fact that our host, the administrator of this august blog, doesn’t care either. Go cry in your beer, Trump humper.
Gryph (08c844) — 5/5/2018 @ 5:07 pm199. Politicians won’t fix what politicians broke. Period. End-of-story. FULL STOP. That includes Donald J. Trump.
Gryph (08c844) — 5/5/2018 @ 5:08 pmIf it were not for the profanity filter, the comment section would be a good substitute for an episode of Deadwood. Chose yer character.
Dave can be E B Farnum.
Kevin M (752a26) — 5/5/2018 @ 5:09 pmI think many Trump supporters object to criticism of Trump, IMO because they believe it is counter-productive and undermines Trump’s support among Republicans.
The problem is more his support among the other 70% of the population, particularly the 40% in the “a pox upon both your houses” party.
Red meat being tossed to the GOP masses isn’t a pleasant sight to watch.
Kevin M (752a26) — 5/5/2018 @ 5:13 pmGryph,
if you are indeed Gryphon from Hot Air you’ve changed for the worse. Never saw you focus friendly fire before. Guess you’ve decided you have more in common with the left than those dirty blue collar and middle class Republicans like Dave and Noel our staunch “conservatives” did.
NJRob (ea4bbc) — 5/5/2018 @ 5:16 pm“I prefer “Control-Alt-Delete”. Google it if you must.“
Sooner or later they always get to liquidation for people who disagree, be it the National Socialists, the Soviets or the Chicomms.
1) I never said for whom.
Kevin M (752a26) — 5/5/2018 @ 5:17 pm2) That key sequence only resets.
In his book and an upcoming HBO documentary, McCain says that his decision not to pick Lieberman, his longtime friend, was “another mistake that I made.”
Tough to be stuck between to mistakes. Picking Loserman would have pretty much signaled the end of the GOP. It’s not like McCain needed to shore up the center.
Kevin M (752a26) — 5/5/2018 @ 5:20 pm*two
Kevin M (752a26) — 5/5/2018 @ 5:21 pmMcCain will be lucky to have any Republicans at his funeral at this rate. It’s really tacky to politicize your death. Not to mention a tad self-centered.
Maybe Bernie can give the eulogy.
Kevin M (752a26) — 5/5/2018 @ 5:26 pmI agree with your point, Kevin. The article explains this is a charitable effort to get aid those without the ability to pay and to resolve debt collection amicably. Perhaps the headline’s misleading. I usually nod along with a lot of your healthcare posts. The more government has tried to fix healthcare over the last 50 years the more we’ve paid and the less we’ve received. We’re a long way from a free market but I’d rather see US turn back in that direction than keep going where Congress has US headed. I appreciate your thoughts.
crazy (5c5b07) — 5/5/2018 @ 5:27 pmControl-Alt-Delete menu:
?
nk (dbc370) — 5/5/2018 @ 5:30 pmI do remember vaguely that Alt-Delete would shut down a program and Alt-Control-Delete would reboot in the good old MS-DOS days. But in Windows 10, it won’t even exit a frozen cursor let alone a BSOD. You have to hold down the Power button.
205. There you go again with the “dirty leftist” accusations. If I am indeed a leftist, then how the hell is it that Patterico and I get along so swimmingly? Is he a leftist? Cause I’m pretty sure if he doesn’t tolerate me here, he might actually *like* me. (Pat, feel free to correct me if I’m wrong).
I think there may have been a “Gryphon” at HotAir, but I was Gryphon202 under the old commenting regime. I spared nothing in my criticisms of Obama AND George W. Bush, and yet very few people ever accused me of being “leftist” back then for criticizing the formation of the TSA under Bush, the formation of the EPA under Nixon, and so-on-and-so-forth.
If you’re going to have a serious conversation with me about what it is you think I’m doing or saying wrong, you’d better come up with something a little more salient than “dirty leftist” just because I’m calling all you Schlichterites out for your unapologetic and unequivocal praise of a lying adulterer.
I think I just hit on something. If “knob polisher” and “Trump humper” hurts your feelings, Snowflake, how about “Schlichterite?” You feel better now?
Gryph (08c844) — 5/5/2018 @ 5:38 pmSchlicterite
noun
1. A formerly conservative individual who is so overcome with self-loathing and anger, they are willing to actively praise behavior in Republicans that they criticize Democrats for doing.
Anything to add to that, folks?
Gryph (08c844) — 5/5/2018 @ 5:41 pmMcCain will be lucky to have any Republicans at his funeral at this rate. It’s really tacky to politicize your death. Not to mention a tad self-centered.
Moreover, he will not be invited to their funerals.
nk (dbc370) — 5/5/2018 @ 5:43 pmPathetic. Name call to your hearts content. I see you didn’t argue with my characterization other than to falsely claim I called you a leftist.
You chose strange bedfellows. Better than those uncouth middle class, pro-American values. I understand how that can be.
NJRob (ea4bbc) — 5/5/2018 @ 5:47 pmI think it’s simple human nature, Gryph. I’ve seen it with victims of 409 (Nigerian prince) scams and time share scams. People do not want to admit they’ve been fooled. Not to others, not to themselves. So they buy into it and convince themselves that they did something wise and wonderful, and if it did not work out it was because of unforeseen circumstances or enemy action.
nk (dbc370) — 5/5/2018 @ 5:49 pm215. Let me make sure I have this straight. Kurt Shlichter and his army of Schlichterites consider adultery with a porn star a middle-class pro-American value? If I’m wrong in your case, I’m wrong. Schlichter’s own words damn him. So be careful which cart you hitch your horses to, buddy. I’m really hesitant to listen to a lecure about pro-American middle-class values from someone who spent his life pursuing the limelight and playing with Daddy’s millions, or anyone who thinks that kind of lifestyle represents “middle-class” anything.
Gryph (08c844) — 5/5/2018 @ 6:05 pmStormy Daniels, an American woman, has extremely large breasts Mr. Gryph.
They did a whole story about her tits on CNN.
happyfeet (28a91b) — 5/5/2018 @ 6:20 pmnk,
Don’t start me. These young’uns don’t know that the Big Red Switch was for, and if you told them they would look at you with horror.
Kevin M (752a26) — 5/5/2018 @ 6:36 pmI confess that I feel a Schlichterlish glee for the offense the British and the French took over Trump’s remarks at the NRA convention about their stupid population disarmament policies.
nk (dbc370) — 5/5/2018 @ 6:42 pm220. Even Trump gets it right sometimes. I was happy to hear him say that as well. No way in hell do I think he actually believes any of it, though.
Gryph (08c844) — 5/5/2018 @ 6:46 pmSen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) said he regrets choosing former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin (R) to be his running mate during the 2008 presidential campaign.
“We thought she was a solid governor,” said Mr. McCain, “…albeit of Alaska. But as the campaign dragged on we realized she was just stupid and useless.”
happyfeet (28a91b) — 5/5/2018 @ 6:47 pmNo way in hell do I think he actually believes any of it, though.
I agree. I don’t think he believes in anything. He only wants.
nk (dbc370) — 5/5/2018 @ 7:06 pmIn this instance, wild applause from the attendees.
nk (dbc370) — 5/5/2018 @ 7:06 pmI said my piece at the beginning of the thread Gryph. No use putting words in my mouth regarding Schlichter or Trump.
NJRob (ea4bbc) — 5/5/2018 @ 7:35 pm212… If I am indeed a leftist, then how the hell is it that Patterico and I get along so swimmingly? …
As I recall Patterico has repeatedly said leftists are welcome to comment here. So I don’t think his failure to ban you is evidence you aren’t a leftist.
James B. Shearer (a9b467) — 5/5/2018 @ 9:44 pm226. But Patterico has said, and I quote, that I “…sound like him.” That ain’t leftist. It may be critical of Trump, but critical of Trump != leftist. I think you know better.
Gryph (08c844) — 5/6/2018 @ 6:42 am225. Well either you agree with Schlichter, that Trump’s adultery is a cause for joy, or you don’t. You can certainly be indifferent to it, but my whole point is that Schlichter clearly isn’t. So if you are not a Schlichterite, feel free to correct me. And anyone else on this thread for that matter. Until that happens, I’ll call ’em like I see ’em.
Gryph (08c844) — 5/6/2018 @ 6:44 amAnd to think that Palin defended McCain against his challengers. Misplaced loyalty to a man who, in the end, displayed a lack of honor.
Kevin M (752a26) — 5/6/2018 @ 10:22 ami’m glad johnny threw Sarah under the bus like a used tampon cause it helps people understand how cowardly and trashy he is
he literally lacks the courage to hold even a polite and decorous conviction
#theydidsomethingtohisbrain
happyfeet (28a91b) — 5/6/2018 @ 10:44 amThe legendary chess grand-master Jose Raul Capablanca once famously observed: “There are no wrong moves from a losing position.”
I think that applies to McCain’s VP choice. Given the hype/delusion surrounding Mr. “All Things to All People” Obama, normal voter fatigue after the eight-year Bush administration, and the dislocation caused by the collapse of the housing bubble, no VP pick McCain could have made would have changed the outcome.
I liked Palin at the time; I think she would have been fine as VP. Although I admire Lieberman for his strong, non-partisan commitment to national security, his domestic policy positions were indistinguishable from Obama’s and I don’t think putting him on the ticket would have improved the final outcome.
Dave (445e97) — 5/6/2018 @ 11:21 amPalin and McCain deserved each other they’re both cowards with very poor, trashy character
happyfeet (28a91b) — 5/6/2018 @ 11:36 amI have been pointing not to the ‘official’ unemployment rate, U-3, but at U-6, for years now. U-6 is defined as “Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force.” In other words, it includes those who are employed part-time, but want full-time work and are unable to find it.
We saw, in 2014, something which had never happened before: U-6 was twice that of U-3. During the worst month of the 2002-3 recession, June of 2003, when U-3 hit 6.3%, U-6 was at 10.3%
But I saw the ratio start creeping up as U-3 unemployment declined from its early highs following the 2009 recession, and twice in 2014, and thrice in 2015 and 2016, U-6 was at least double U-3, and even in the months where it wasn’t quite doubled, it was close.
As much as I’d like to blame that all on Barack Hussein Obama, the trend continued after Donald Trump took office. While there were zero doubled months in 2017, it always remained close, and now, in three out of the four months in 2018, it has been doubled again.
We have, in effect, as many part-time workers who need full-time positions as we have people without jobs actively looking for work!
The economist Dana (044268) — 5/6/2018 @ 11:53 amWe have, in effect, as many part-time workers who need full-time positions as we have people without jobs actively looking for work!
obamacare destroyed a lot of jobs and the fight for fifteen union pigs have devastated the entry level job market (they hate black people is why)
happyfeet (28a91b) — 5/6/2018 @ 11:59 amIn September of 2016, CNNMoney’s Heather Long published a story I often quote.
I pointed out that the ‘third of Americans’ who believed that unemployment is actually 9% or higher were very close to the U-6 unemployment number, which stood at 9.7% at the time. People might not have known or understood the gobbledygook which goes into the BLS numbers, but they could feel the real unemployment numbers in their bones.
The economist Dana (044268) — 5/6/2018 @ 12:07 pmhappyfeet notwithstanding, Palin was the best part of McCain’s campaign. McCain was deadwood and dead in the water and any buoyancy he got was from her. She didn’t lose the election for him; Obama won it fair and square because even Palin could not compensate for a grumpy old man with a raspy voice up against a charismatic, articulate energetic young man who was just black enough for everybody.
nk (dbc370) — 5/6/2018 @ 12:08 pmPalin was the best part of McCain’s campaign
i actually agree with this
remember when he cancelled his campaign to save the economy lol
#theydidsomethingtohisbrain
happyfeet (28a91b) — 5/6/2018 @ 12:10 pm“Obama won it fair and square because even Palin could not compensate for a grumpy old man with a raspy voice up against a charismatic, articulate energetic young man who was just black enough for everybody.”
That and 90% of the MSM being in his pocket.
harkin (c60926) — 5/6/2018 @ 2:44 pm236. I’ve been saying it for years to anyone who will hear it. McCain lost that election in spite of Sarah Palin, not because of her. I cringe to think of how much worse it would have been had Lieberman been his running mate.
Gryph (08c844) — 5/6/2018 @ 2:56 pm3.9% may be an arbitrary number given the workforce participation rate.
HOWEVER. What it does mean…..
1. Among the CURRENT pool of labor, there is a shortage.
2. A labor shortage is generally responded to with HIGHER wages.
3. Higher wages will lead to more people coming back into the labor market.
What we have seen in the past several jobs reports is the appearance of slowed hiring.
What we actually have is a dance going on. Discouraged workers are teetering on the brink of coming back into the job market. Wages just need to go up.
I think we are on the cusp of 4% growth, if not higher.
Carlton (c1c173) — 5/6/2018 @ 4:48 pmThere was a news report yesterday on CNS (?) news service that did detail the impact on the work force participation figure of the baby boomer retirement — and supported the proposition that a driver in the decline in that number is the ongoing retirement of folks born after 1946. They began turning 65 in 2011.
The article confirmed that recent retirees are included in the “not employed and not seeking employment” which is the numerator on the “work force participation number.
Since that number continues to include retirees as they age, increased life expectancy also works to make the work force participation number worse as retirees age but do not pass away.
The projection by BLS or some other government agency is that the work force participation number will continue to decline as more and more of the baby boom generation enters retirement (1946 to 1964), even taking into account strong economic growth and job growth numbers on a gross basis, and will eventually settle around 58% in 20 years.
I was always critical of the Obama administration for touting low unemployment numbers in his second term while I took note of the work force participation rate in the same manner the Host does here. But the truth of the matter seems to be that beginning in about 2011, this slide was destined by demographics.
One caveat for that with regard to Obama is that the number slid all through his first term as well — it was 66% when he entered office. But he entered office on the heels of the severe economic downturn caused by the housing slump and mortgage crisis which tanked the economy. And he did dramatically increase welfare and disability numbers by ridiculous policies that incentivized staying out of the work force.
But, in fairness now, its seems like the generational aspects of the Baby Boomers is the biggest driver of the slide simply because of the sheer size of the baby boomer generation.
shipwreckedcrew (56b591) — 5/8/2018 @ 8:04 am