Patterico's Pontifications

3/3/2018

GREAAAAT: Trump Escalating Trade War Threats

Filed under: General — Patterico @ 3:00 pm

Yesterday I wrote at length about why Trump’s proposed tariffs on steel and aluminum are disastrous policy, likely to lead to retaliation, decreased exports, job losses, and general economic turmoil. Well, we haven’t seen the last of it. The Dunce in Chief is so excited by the prospect of a trade war that he is continuing and escalating the threats:

President Trump on Saturday threatened to hammer European automotive companies with steep tariffs as his global trade war snowballed into a third day.

Trump, in a series of Twitter posts while at his Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida, appeared to be responding to warnings from European leaders that his promised tariffs on aluminum and steel would trigger retaliation from numerous major U.S. trading partners.

Bring it on, Trump wrote.

Here are the tweets:

I explained yesterday that a trade deficit is actually a good thing, unlike deficits in government spending. A trade deficit means that foreign countries consider U.S. companies to be a good investment, and that the U.S. is prospering from the division of labor and the ability of other countries to provide certain goods inexpensively. But the Economic Genius sitting in the Oval Office doesn’t understand any of this (even though aides have tried to explain it to him).

Susan Wright noted earlier today that the fallout is just beginning, with Electrolux announcing a delay in a $250 million investment in Tennessee. The more this escalates, the worse it will get.

And you’ll pay more. Sure, it will be “only” a few hundred extra bucks for a car. You’re fine with that, right?

The emperor has no clothes. This stuff is insanity and threatens to stop the recovery in its tracks and go full speed in reverse. Those who understand what is happening need to stand up and speak loudly. Now — while there’s still time.

[Cross-posted at RedState and The Jury Talks Back.]

155 Responses to “GREAAAAT: Trump Escalating Trade War Threats”

  1. DUNCE?

    Now you’re cooking with Gazprom.

    Ben burn (636263)

  2. No, he called President Trump a dunce, not you. The actual case is his opinion, which is clearly stated. The case you were apparently thinking of, that he was talking about you, is just wishful thinking for most of the commenters.

    Would have been a good catch though. Nicely done.

    Stashiu3 (466cdf)

  3. the important thing is how President Trump’s gonna make it more fair

    it’s about time huh

    happyfeet (28a91b)

  4. feets,

    Want to ask you a question, but not on the blog. Email me at stashiu3 at g mail dot com? Right up your lane I think, but I don’t want to give the stalker clues that he shouldn’t have.

    Stashiu3 (466cdf)

  5. Back in the 90, I wrote an economics on the miti industrial policy, that fallows had flocked and Von wulferen had merely recommended, even then the collapse of the property bubble want very clearly illustrated.

    narciso (d1f714)

  6. sent you an email

    happyfeet (28a91b)

  7. The president’s aides say the sessions feed his desire to pull back the curtain to allow the public to witness him doing his job.

    “He’s in his element,” said Hope Hicks, Mr. Trump’s communications director. “It’s what he does best, whether it’s in real estate as a negotiator, but also as a television executive, he understands the value of showing people what happens inside the room.”

    Other observers hold a less charitable view: that like much of what happens on reality television, Mr. Trump’s meetings are manufactured spectacles that have no impact on the president’s decisions.

    https://mobile.nytimes.com/2018/03/03/us/politics/trump-reality-show.html?referer=

    Ben burn (636263)

  8. So Ben tribune of the people, how do you feel about tariffa

    narciso (d1f714)

  9. Thanks feets, question asked.

    Stashiu3 (466cdf)

  10. The president (especially this president) should not have the power to unilaterally impose tariffs (i.e. taxes).

    That sort of thing went out 800 years ago with the Magna Carta.

    Dave (445e97)

  11. If trade deficits are good, why on earth are these other countries concerned?

    EPWJ (c31dc7)

  12. Pat,

    It would be interesting to see what the Mises institute may say about all of this

    EPWJ (c31dc7)

  13. If trade deficits are good, why on earth are these other countries concerned?

    Trade deficits are good AND trade surpluses are good, because unfettered trade, itself, is good.

    Tariffs will reduce the amount of something that helps everybody.

    Dave (445e97)

  14. Here is the paper that I think, everyone in the media is getting the 200,000 jobs lost from the bush era steel tariffs

    http://tradepartnership.com/reports/the-unintended-consequences-of-u-s-steel-import-tariffs-a-quantification-of-the-impact-during-2002-2003/

    EPWJ (c31dc7)

  15. It would be interesting to see what everyone thinks about it.

    My read, it’s full of crap

    EPWJ (c31dc7)

  16. EPWJ,

    I read it (it’s not that long folks) and my expertise in economics is roughly equal to my expertise in law (I’ve watched Legally Blonde and The Big Short) so a rather large mine of salt should probably be close at hand. I think there are flaws, but the main premise seems to be in line with Patterico’s position on tariffs. He is much more of an expert, while I’m of the opinion to wait and see.

    The thing about things created with the stroke of a pen is that usually (interference from federal judges notwithstanding) they can be undone with another stroke. Also, a threat to do something is not always what is going to happen. Hence, the wait and see position I take.

    Good to see you.

    Stashiu3 (466cdf)

  17. @11 EPWJ – good question! And you won’t get an answer.

    The EU places a 10% tariff on U.S. made vehicles. We currently impose a 2.5% tax on EU-made cars.

    I’d like to hear from anyone here if they think it’s reasonable that the EU tariffs for autos are 4X the U.S.

    Lenny (5ea732)

  18. @16 – your expertise in economics is not a disadvantage when you’re comparing it to economists. No profession is more inept at predictive models than economists, with the possible exception of the global warming crowd. Strike that — economists are more inept.

    Here are some basic charts showing the variance of error of the Fed’s economists in predicting inflation:

    https://christophergandrud.blogspot.com/2011/12/federal-reserve-internal-inflation.html

    They make the global warming “scientists” look infallible.

    John T. Harvey – a professor of economics – is one of only a handful in his profession that isn’t in denial:

    We are experiencing deep economic problems and it is the fault of the economics discipline. Their macro theories suck. But, there is no mechanism forcing it to alter its models when they don’t appear to work. This is so because economists basically write for each other in a language only they understand and their jobs depend on impressing a limited number of journal editors and referees, not correcting real-world problems. The academic inbreeding that has resulted has led to dysfunctional theories and, despite the fact that there were economists who accurately forecast the Financial Crisis, because their work is incompatible with what is published in “good” journals it has been all but ignored. Economics is broken and there is no internal incentive to fix it.

    The terrible bottom line here is that the school of thought that encouraged the idea that the financial system could properly price subprime derivatives is the same one that assumes the economy fixes itself and we don’t really need to pay too close attention to the banking sector. They also brought us the view that exporting jobs to China won’t really hurt us (remember, they assume we return to full employment automatically), we can allow merger after merger and not experience a decline in competitiveness (you know, like in health care), austerity measures help fix economies (they’ve done wonders for Greece), tax cuts for the rich increase investment (they actually increase saving, which lowers firm sales and thereby lowers investment), education needs to be privatized (so the poor get excluded), etc, etc.

    Lenny (5ea732)

  19. Somebody should ask Trump about the trade deficit in Eastern European mail-order brides he’s running.

    Jerryskids (cfad51)

  20. Keep in mind the ‘idiot’ and the ‘dunce’ defeated Perry, Walker, Jindal, Graham, Pataki, Huckabee, Santorum, Paul, Christie, Fiorina, Gilmore, Bush, Carson, Rubio, Cruz and Kasich to win the Republican Party nomination and won the 2016 general election securing 304 electoral college votes w/62,984,825 of the popular vote beating Hillary Clinton’s 227 electoral college total in spite of her higher popular vote total of 65,853,516.

    From our Captain’s POV– and his ‘loyal crew’– “you can’t argue with success;” to them the ship of state is steaming along just fine w/him at the helm.

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  21. Do we always have to assume its smooth hawley:

    https://eh.net/encyclopedia/the-fordney-mccumber-tariff-of-1922/

    narciso (d1f714)

  22. @21 narciso – the last sentence of the article at the link is instructive. Negotiate bilateral agreements. Fair ones. The TTIP is stalled…the EU is dragging its feet. And why not? They have a 4:1 advantage in tariffs re: auto import/export.

    I agree that escalating trade wars via tariffs is ruinous, but individual trade agreements are preferable and not dictated by WTO. China used WTO to launch economic warfare against the U.S. and others. And China isn’t the only country that benefits from imbalanced trade agreements.

    Lenny (5ea732)

  23. No that one came of the legislature, not from an executive order, but it was an increase from the base tariff

    narciso (d1f714)

  24. Earth to Hoagie: if your power is on, when you can, let us know how you’re doing.

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  25. Pat shot the tariff

    but he did not shoot the subsidy

    Pat shot the tariff

    but he did not shoot the subsidy

    All his stuff comes from overseas
    plastic Santa with a halo
    Ol’ Glory stitched by the Chinese
    fifty seven stars over the jailo

    fifty seven stars over the jailo

    I swear

    Pat shot the tariff

    but he swears it was in self defense

    Pat shot the tariff

    but he swears it’s in our best interest

    papertiger (c8116c)

  26. About Smoot-Hawley.

    TheBas (3bcea0)

  27. Notably Fortney macumber came after a short shallow downturn.

    narciso (d1f714)

  28. Stashiu,

    The WTO has a database of all tariffs by type by country.

    I used to use it looong time ago, but wouldn’t it be great to have the real information by each country on major items.

    It would be interesting.

    If I had time I would do a query but even steel has 100’s of sub categories….

    Maybe one of Pats readers is in the biz and can run some lists, heck just on eggs

    EPWJ (4dc563)

  29. It’s most unlikely he’s a dunce.

    He may be wrong. Why and how?

    He may be doing it for ulterior motives. What are they?

    Nobody has any hope of changing his mind, if indeed his mind is made up, until they think about, and maybe answer, these questions.

    A dunce, an idiot, does not get to be President of he USA.

    Fred Z (05d938)

  30. I know what a tariff is, and a trade imbalance. What I’m not sure about is why when a country puts tariffs on our goods, we can’t do the same to theirs? Wouldn’t that encourage them to trade with us fairly? If they steal our intellectual property, shouldn’t we be able to punish that somehow? It’s kind of the same thing as I see it. Except then they’re getting our products for basically free, then selling things to us at much cheaper prices that normal because they saved so much money elsewhere. Money is fungible after all.

    What I’m saying is, if they won’t play fairly voluntarily, what’s wrong with punishing them until they play fairly under protest?

    Stashiu3 (466cdf)

  31. Trade deficits are good AND trade surpluses are good, because unfettered trade, itself, is good.

    Tariffs will reduce the amount of something that helps everybody.

    Dave (445e97) — 3/3/2018 @ 5:02 pm

    Sounds like the inverse of Global Warming.

    Pinandpuller (91b17b)

  32. Reading above it sounds like trade is already fettered. Just to our disadvantage.

    Stashiu3 (466cdf)

  33. One consequence of Cash for Clunkers was destroying a lot of perfectly good cars for the secondary market. So what are the consequence to secondary markets from a steel tariff? Do people hold onto their BMW another year? I’ve never bought a new car and I probably never will.

    Should I sell my junk riding mower to the recycler now or hold onto it? Should I buy steel fence posts or keep using wood?

    Pinandpuller (91b17b)

  34. Other observers hold a less charitable view: that like much of what happens on reality television, Mr. Trump’s meetings are manufactured spectacles that have no impact on the president’s decisions.

    Ben burn (636263) — 3/3/2018 @ 4:19 pm

    Unlike any president ever.

    Pinandpuller (91b17b)

  35. There’s almost as much paperwork involved in recycling copper as buying an AR 15. Some parts, like condensers, you can’t sell above board without an HVAC license.

    Pinandpuller (91b17b)

  36. Reading above it sounds like trade is already fettered. Just to our disadvantage.

    Stashiu3 (466cdf) — 3/3/2018 @ 9:34 pm

    Since you and I seem to share the same Pollyannish condition do you think that we are:

    1. Suffering under a disassociate disorder or

    2. Enjoying a normal healthy outlook on Life, The Universe and Everything?

    Pinandpuller (91b17b)

  37. Enjoying Suffering a normal healthy outlook on Life, The Universe and Everything?
    Pinandpuller (91b17b) — 3/3/2018 @ 9:59 pm

    FIFY. (Seems that way sometimes anyway, lol)

    Stashiu3 (466cdf)

  38. What I’m saying is, if they won’t play fairly voluntarily, what’s wrong with punishing them until they play fairly under protest?

    Stashiu3 (466cdf) — 3/3/2018 @ 9:20 pm

    So what of Tennessee that has a nearly 10% sales tax and New Hampshire with no sales tax on the theoretical BMW? We’re getting stuck with a 20% tariff on lovely German automobiles.

    Pinandpuller (91b17b)

  39. Enjoying Suffering a normal healthy outlook on Life, The Universe and Everything?
    Pinandpuller (91b17b) — 3/3/2018 @ 9:59 pm

    FIFY. (Seems that way sometimes anyway, lol)

    Stashiu3 (466cdf) — 3/3/2018 @ 10:13 pm

    Perhaps. And I should have written dis-associative disorder. A disassociate sounds like the worst lawyer at a firm.

    Pinandpuller (91b17b)

  40. So what of Tennessee that has a nearly 10% sales tax and New Hampshire with no sales tax on the theoretical BMW? We’re getting stuck with a 20% tariff on lovely German automobiles.
    Pinandpuller (91b17b) — 3/3/2018 @ 10:17 pm

    States rights. Buy Ford. (I grew up in Detroit and most of my family worked for Ford Motor or a subsidiary like Rouge Steel.)

    Stashiu3 (466cdf)

  41. It’s Dissociative Disorder and there are still psychiatrists who don’t believe it actually exists. Fun fact.

    Stashiu3 (466cdf)

  42. Of course, there are still regular Family Practice doctors who don’t believe Fibromyalgia actually exists either. Another fun fact.

    Stashiu3 (466cdf)

  43. God looks after fools, drunks and Donald Trump.

    Kevin M (752a26)


  44. 43.God looks after fools, drunks and Donald Trump.
    Kevin M (752a26) — 3/3/2018 @ 11:48 pm


    Yes, Kevin M, he does tend to is all. I’m still at U of P Hospital but the tube should be out of my lung to day, and with luck home tomorrow. Of course the storm here felled a tree on my house causing damage and a leak in the master bedroom with my wife home alone. Electric went out, generators went on. Crazy.

    It’s difficult to type but I’ve been reading what you guys are talking about. I’m amazed at how quickly the MSM and all the left press and leftists in general (all the way to Comrade Ben burn) have suddenly become free market mavens once Trump mentioned the word “tariff”. Similarly, how many people who haven’t fought in war are now ballistic and firearm experts.

    Trump really is having a faux sexual abuse romance with leftists brain cells.

    Rev.Hoagie (ce366f)

  45. Stashiu, ever had a Ford car under the “A” Plan discount? Interestingly enough, most of my mom’s fam are retired U.S. Steel (South Works and then Gary, 1 nephew still works at the Gary plant) and my dad worked for former USS subsidiary EJ&E railroad.

    urbanleftbehind (e1b96a)

  46. i wonder if by making heroes out of these disgustingly obnoxious school shooting survivors the CNN Jake Tapper fake news propaganda sluts are doing more to disincentivize school shootings than anything else they could possibly do

    happyfeet (28a91b)

  47. that’s ironic cause CNN’s entire business model is built on murdered children

    happyfeet (28a91b)

  48. Home in two days?

    Rev.Homie, don’t get out there in the wind and wet. Hire a roofer. Sell a cadillac if you have too. Whatever it takes. Stay off the ladder.

    papertiger (c8116c)

  49. 44… of course it helps when the leftists are all fvcked in the head to begin with… rest easy, Hoagie.

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  50. I can’t get over all you snobby sons of britches crinkling your nose up at tariffs.

    You were kissing Barry’s o ring during the cash for clunkers Asian Auto Imports Subsidy.

    {Wasn’t quite sure with that lyric above, but did a little research. Damned if I wasn’t spot on.}

    Say did you know that China is the largest producer and consumer of coal in the world?

    You say tariff. What I hear is [edit] you Ching! [Edit] you right in [edit]ing commie [edit]hole.

    papertiger (c8116c)

  51. Good news healthwise rev,

    narciso (d1f714)

  52. Sorry that should read, “[Edit] you right in YOUR [edit]ing commie [edit]hole.

    [I really should type out the curse words long form then do the edit.]

    papertiger (c8116c)

  53. Thanks for the update, Hoagie. You are in my daily prayers. And this one, which I invite those of goodwill to pray with me, for your well being.

    Faithful and loving Father, You sent your only begotten Son, our Lord and Savior, Jesus Christ, to free us from the slavery of sin; May your servant, known to us as Hoagie, his wife and loved ones, be freed from all anxieties and doubts, never giving in to despair, as they wait in joyful hope for the return of Your Son, “the Truth, the Way, and the Life,” Who lives and reigns with you and the Holy Spirit, One God for ever and ever. Amen.

    felipe (023cc9)

  54. have suddenly become free market mavens once Trump mentioned the word “tariff”.

    Hoagie, you don’t know me well enough to say I suddenly disapprove of tariffs.

    Glad you’re better though.

    Ben burn (636263)

  55. 50

    I’m rubber, you’re glue.

    Ben burn (636263)

  56. The Business Roundtable’s Josh Bolten, a chief of staff for President George W. Bush, tells “Fox News Sunday” that “every modern president has faced some trade skirmishes during their time but they’ve all been wise enough not to let it descend into outright trade war.”

    http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory/latest-commerce-chief-scoffs-eu-trade-tariff-threat-53499789

    So Trump was lying when he said he loves a Trade War?

    Ben burn (636263)

  57. Ben, do you identify with sons of britches, or [edit]ing chinese commie [edit]holes? It’s probably both, but more one than the other. So which?

    Collating data…

    papertiger (c8116c)

  58. Derp

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  59. Sunday… a day for renewing one’s faith and expressing thanks… or, in the case of lefties, another day of lies, pearl-clutching and hitting teh fainting couches…

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  60. Trump talked about China’s President Xi Jinping’s recent consolidation of power and his push to unilaterally extend his presidency through removing term limits. Trump said:

    Trump talked about China’s President Xi Jinping’s recent consolidation of power and his push to unilaterally extend his presidency through removing term limits. Trump said:

    He’s now president for life. President for life. And he’s great. And look, he was able to do that. I think it’s great. Maybe we’ll give that a shot some day.”

    I have no words.He’s now president for life. President for life. And he’s great. And look, he was able to do that. I think it’s great. Maybe we’ll give that a shot some day.”

    I have no words.

    Ben burn (636263)

  61. Tiger..see 61

    Ben burn (636263)


  62. He loves chaos as much as the Joker.
    Ben burn (636263) — 3/4/2018 @ 8:10 am


    By jove, I think you’ve got it!


    Hoagie, you don’t know me well enough to say I suddenly disapprove of tariffs.

    Glad you’re better though.
    Ben burn (636263) — 3/4/2018 @ 7:44 am


    While technically correct, Ben, my comment was meant as an observation not a judgment. You’re still a mystery to me. It’s more-better fun that way.

    Rev.Hoagie (ce366f)

  63. Act out and take your meds, beenburned.

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  64. No words, Ben?

    You think that was a slip of the tongue, but I call it a [edit]ing miracle, shutting your stupid [edit] up.

    Praising a newly minted Chicom dictator? That’s your job isn’t it?

    Now you don’t know whether to [edit] or go blind.

    Hillarious.

    papertiger (c8116c)

  65. Your observations tickle me when they are accurate, hoagie.

    Ben burn (636263)

  66. Your comprehension was hampered by my repeating that entry tiger.

    It’s Trumps applause for Xi’s power fix that leaves me speechless. See? Commies Bad!
    If only I could draw a picture…

    Ben burn (636263)

  67. Do remember that for a man who is 71 and in mediocre health, “P. for Life” does not necessarily mean anything beyond the limits already in the Constitution.

    I myself took it for his usual stream-of-unconsciousness meanderings. I saw someone else call it an obvious joke, but I don’t see the humor in it. Of course, my sense of humor and Donald Trump’s sense of humor seem to differ greatly.

    kishnevi (bb03e6)

  68. Stashiu, ever had a Ford car under the “A” Plan discount? Interestingly enough, most of my mom’s fam are retired U.S. Steel (South Works and then Gary, 1 nephew still works at the Gary plant) and my dad worked for former USS subsidiary EJ&E railroad.
    urbanleftbehind (e1b96a) — 3/4/2018 @ 5:52 am

    Funny you mention it. I’ve never bought a car that wasn’t under the A Plan or, after retirement, Z Plan. My next car purchase will sadly be like everyone else most likely. I have some close relatives that are still eligible, but Ford is now limiting Z Plan to direct family, no cousins or nephews. :(

    Stashiu3 (466cdf)

  69. 25 your rendition of I Shot the Sheriff is better, so much better than kernels hacking of lyrics. Excellent.

    Ben burn (636263)

  70. But would Mel Brooks?

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  71. Former congresscritter Jane Harman continues her transformation toward a a Henson “Dark Crystal”-era look…

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  72. He’s burned, he’s burned, he’s burned
    fvcked in teh head
    He’s burned, he’s burned, he’s burned
    His brain is dead

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  73. And hunting deer with slugs is very common. Why on earth would it coming from a semi-automatic instead of a pump-action make any difference at all? Apparently, you have guns, but don’t know guns.

    Stashiu3 (466cdf)

  74. Retaliation isn’t going to change the price of a can of beer,” he said. “It isn’t going to change the price of a car. It’s just not going to.”

    https://mobile.nytimes.com/2018/03/02/business/trump-aluminum-tariff-beer-can.html?referer=https://www.google.com/

    Ben burn (636263)

  75. Sorry, wrong thread.

    Stashiu3 (466cdf)

  76. Ankle biters heh.

    Ben burn (636263)

  77. You most defiantly remind me of a prophylactic, Ben burned.

    mg (cded48)

  78. I initially read that as “You most definitely remind me of a psychotic…” both are true I guess.

    Stashiu3 (466cdf)

  79. Ben – if you just read breathless leftist sites getting the vapors over Teumps words, you wouldn’t know the context that shows it was clearly a damn joke. You leftists are freakin insane.

    JD (ec3581)

  80. context that shows it was clearly a damn joke

    A very poor joke spoken with reckless disregard easily misinterpreted. That’s what made me speechless. Words matter.

    Ben burn (636263)

  81. thanks for the laughs everyone, will check in for more hilarious verbiage after my morning swim at Hapuna.

    mg (cded48)

  82. Intentionally misinterpreted you mean. You’re welcome.

    Stashiu3 (466cdf)

  83. Words used to matter, until progressives starting mutilating them. President Trump just uses that philosophy against them.

    Stashiu3 (466cdf)

  84. Ben burn,

    Will you give Patterico permission to forward the email you sent to him last night? Please.

    Stashiu3 (466cdf)

  85. Perhaps we should check with the EU. Remember this from 9 months ago: EU SETS STEEL IMPORT DUTIES TO COUNTER CHINESE SUBSIDIES https://www.reuters.com/article/us-eu-china-steel/eu-sets-steel-import-duties-to-counter-chinese-subsidies-idUSKBN1900UP

    Here’s the start of the article: “The European Union has set duties of up to 35.9 percent on imports of hot-rolled flat steel from China to counter what it says are unfair subsidies in a finding challenged by Beijing.

    The European Commission (EC), which conducted an investigation on behalf of the 28 EU members, found a number of Chinese companies had benefited from preferential lending from state-owned banks, grants, tax deductions and the right to use industrial land.

    “We are continuing to act, when necessary, against unfair trading conditions in the steel sector, and against foreign dumping,” EU Trade Commissioner Cecilia Malmstrom said in a statement.”

    pete (a65bac)

  86. But Trump’s got you talking about it. Bringing dictatorship such as happens in China down to the personal, what would you do if Trump declared himself President for life brings the horror that is modern communism done right home for you in a concrete way that I don’t think many liberals internalize.

    Rah Rah XiPing! Wait a minute…

    papertiger (c8116c)

  87. Would you justify Trump in that possible scenario? It would show that foolish consistency tiger.

    Ben burn (636263)

  88. Perhaps we should check with the EU.

    Yes, we should definitely adopt the EU as our economic paradigm. *rolls eyes*

    If China wants to subsidize stuff we buy, let them. The more, the better – free stuff is good.

    Dave (445e97)

  89. It’s not a possible scenario. It has been projected by both sides since at least President G.W. Bush, but it won’t happen.

    Permission for Patterico to send me the email?

    Stashiu3 (466cdf)

  90. Remember..China can dump those bonds and still fare better than we.

    Ben burn (636263)

  91. On that day, cadet burn I owe you a follar.

    narciso (da3617)

  92. @87 – pete:

    Tariffs for me but not for thee.

    Lenny (5ea732)

  93. China is selling slowly and Russia is buying.

    There are several problems with this line of reasoning. Some experts, like Mark Cabana, head of US short rate strategy at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, believe that China has some viable alternatives to the US Treasuries. “We’re of the view if you’re a reserve manager, Treasuries aren’t terribly attractive. If you’re China, you don’t have too many options, but this could certainly mean they could diversify into euros more or in U.S. dollar terms, hold more in cash,” Cabana told CNBC. Moreover, the reasons behind the possible rejig of the Chinese reserves may be political and not economical, therefore nullifying the argument that China won’t give up on Treasuries because it will result in losses. It is obvious that in Sino-American relations political necessity sometimes trumps all other considerations, so crashing the US Treasury market in order to make a political point may be considered a viable strategy at some point.

    https://sputniknews.com/columnists/201801151060762217-china-us-petrodollar-treasuries-market/

    Ben burn (636263)

  94. @87

    Did you read your link? The EU tariffs were for one specific type of steel, from 3 specific companies. Trump’s tariff has no such focus.

    Davethulhu (081885)

  95. Targeted tariffs good. Other tariffs bad. Got it.

    JD (ec3581)

  96. Trump’s proxy on Fox News this morning, Peter Navarro, is an unmitigated ass-hat, a deliberate and poor liar, and definitely the kind of guy who’s woken up after a lot of short naps on a barroom floor.

    But Trumpkins will doubtless swoon — he’s tough! And he wants to punch back!

    So the American consumer will indeed take it on the chin.

    Beldar (fa637a)

  97. Hope you can get home as soon as possible, Hoagie. Sorry to hear about the bad luck with the storm.

    Leviticus (924d70)

  98. @97

    I didn’t assign a good/bad axis to the EU tariffs. I’m pointing out that he’s comparing two different things.

    Davethulhu (081885)

  99. I’m hearing a lot of talk about Moms used to make the steel (well done, Norma Ray) and Dads used to ride the rail (choo choo).
    Then I’m reading about Toledo, Ohio, and how Willys Jeep, Autolite and Champion USE TO BE the leading employers in the city. Now their leading industry is orthopedic socks with copper thread weaved in.

    American Tariff, [edit] yeah.

    I’d prefer Urbanleftbehind’s cousins with good paying jobs, rather than Xi Chow and Ping

    papertiger (c8116c)

  100. Ben stumbles into the truth without realizing it.

    the reasons behind the possible rejig of the Chinese reserves may be political and not economical, therefore nullifying the argument that China won’t give up on Treasuries because it will result in losses. It is obvious that in Sino-American relations political necessity sometimes trumps all other considerations, so crashing the US Treasury market in order to make a political point may be considered a viable strategy at some point.

    Unfortunately this is one of the “if you only knew what I knew but can’t tell you” areas that is hard to debate in an open forum.

    BUT, THE CHINESE ARE NOT OUR FRIENDS. THE CHINESE ARE PLAYING A LONG-GAME THAT ENDS WITH OUR ECONOMIC AND MILITARY DEMISE.

    Their initial goal is hegemony of greater Asia and the South China Sea down to Australia. After they have achieved that they are going to want equal status with the US over the Pacific Ocean. And after that its going to be the Indian Ocean over to Africa.

    To the Chinese, colonialism isn’t a dirty word. Its what they see as their entitlement and their destiny.

    shipwreckedcrew (56b591)

  101. @90: So the American consumer will indeed take it on the chin.

    If open borders are desirable for consumer goods, why not also for human capital? H1B visa quotas and border controls in general— just get rid of them. How much more cheaper everything will be!

    I guess the future lies in careers untouchable by illegals and outsourcing. Everyone can be a lawyer or public worker or, better yet, both. What an absolutely awesome world that would be.

    random viking (6a54c2)

  102. @96 That’s funny, asking if I read my link and claiming it only applied to “three specific companies.” Let me help you: the article states “The targeted companies include Benxi Group [LNGOVB.UL], with overall anti-dumping and anti-subsidy duties of 28.1 percent, Hesteel Group, with a rate of 18.1 percent, and Jiangsu Shagang at 35.9 percent.”

    “Include” is not only three specific companies. I’ll save you the trouble of replying that it only applies to one type of steel.

    Oh, and btw, here are some more EU tariffs on hot rolled steel they announced in October: https://www.euractiv.com/section/economy-jobs/news/eu-sets-duties-on-certain-steel-imports-tariff-price-controversial/

    pete (a65bac)

  103. As long as you comprehend my point, which was that the knowing believe they won’t sh’t where they eat, don’t understand how important saving face is for Chinese culture.

    It was exactly my point shipwreck

    Ben burn (636263)

  104. A tariff is a barrier to entry. We could drastically lower legal fees if we just dumped the tariff known as the bar exam. That way, consumers wouldn’t have to “take it on the chin.” But, I guess that’s one of those good tariffs.

    random viking (6a54c2)

  105. 105 — the Chinese are not driven by concepts of market rationality. They are willing to absorb economic pain in order to realize expansionist goals. They want the dollar to be replaced with the reminbi as the primary currency for international transactions. That is years away, but working to gradually weaken he US economy is all part of that overall strategy.

    They are going to solve the North Korea problem, but the price is going to be closer alignment by South Korea with China, and against Japan.

    shipwreckedcrew (56b591)

  106. Many triangulations..well said.

    Ben burn (636263)

  107. Don’t forget Taiwan and Hong Kong.

    Ben burn (636263)

  108. So you subscribe to Michael pillsbury’s hundred year mace, at least in part. Possibly the Koreans didn’t have a great experience with the manchu dynasty if memory serves. Its striking that the opium war took place in the aftermath of the taiping rebellion. Also xiping is more an orthodox Marxist than timing.

    narciso (d1f714)

  109. 109 — Taiwan and Hong Kong are nuisances which have no real alternative other than to submit eventually.

    South Korea and Japan have the history and fortitude to resist. That’s why dominance over the sea is key to China’s expansionist goals.

    Why do you suspect the most advanced weapons systems developed by the Chinese are air-to-sea ship killing missles?

    Is China willing to risk a military conflict with the US involving naval forces, with the expectation that such a conflict would not escalate to a nuke exchange??? Hmmmmmm.

    What would China gain by sinking a US aircraft carrier in the South China Sea in disputed waters?

    shipwreckedcrew (56b591)

  110. They did learn from their experience with the British navy, which was a major tool of market expansion.

    narciso (d1f714)

  111. Taiwan and HK know full well they could be a bargaining chip and your scenarios are within the realm of likely. I’d feel a lot better if they had dissidents with teeth but Tiananmen proved it’s not the People’s Army.

    Ben burn (636263)

  112. 112, cue half of the Pogues’ musical catalogue

    urbanleftbehind (b60adc)

  113. Trump’s proxy on Fox News this morning, Peter Navarro

    To my shame, and the shame of my whole university, a faculty colleague of mine.

    :(

    Dave (445e97)

  114. nothing says how important saving face is for Chinese culture, like kicking in the people’s teeth.

    papertiger (c8116c)

  115. 98. Beldar (fa637a) — 3/4/2018 @ 10:23 am

    98.Trump’s proxy on Fox News this morning, Peter Navarro, is an unmitigated ass-hat, a deliberate and poor liar,

    He didn’t zstrike me as a liar, unless it is a lie that he didn’t get more access to Trump, but he didn’t like about that but just avoided the subject, and he didn’t get caught in any lies by Chris Wallace, which, perhaps is not saying all that much. Wallace looked bad in trying not to let him say his piece.

    http://www.foxnews.com/transcript/2018/03/04/white-house-trade-adviser-makes-case-for-tariffs.html

    I don’t know. Is this a lie?

    let’s remember this: Donald Trump ran against 16 Republicans. None of those Republicans supported Donald Trump’s positions on trade. He beat every one of them.

    And then Donald Trump went on to the Democratic opponent who didn’t support his positions on trade and he beat them, too.

    I wondered aboput that.

    Actually, Hillary Clinton came close to supporting the same ideas that Donald Trump touted.

    Is this a lie?

    If you look at the aluminum industry, for example, we are down now to less than 10 percent to fulfilling our demand. With lost six smelters since 2013. We are down to five smelters, only two of them are fully operational….

    Navarro made a big argument that it wouldn’t cost anything much, but that’s not a lie, even if the fact taht theer are middlemen means the efefct will be increased.

    If you look at the other end of the spectrum, Boeing 777, it’s one of the best airliners ever made, it’s $330 million aircraft. We are talking…at the worst of $25,000.

    Maybe that could be a lie because it assumes no increased margin, but its a small lie.

    WALLACE: Wait a minute, even — if it’s $175 a car and there are 17,000 cars — 17 million cars, that is a $3 billion tax.

    NAVARRO: I guess we would disagree about how to do that math here, $175 on a $30,000 car is less, a small fraction of 1 percent.

    Is that wrong?

    NAVARRO: Let’s see, last time I checked, we had an $18 trillion economy. It’s second (INAUDIBLE) small, there’s not enough zeros to get —

    OK, that’s a lie because there are enough zeroes.

    Sammy Finkelman (02a146)

  116. Our aluminum industry, make no mistake, that thing is on life support.

    Is tht wrong? Now that may not be true about steel and this may not be the best way to salvage the aluminum indistry – tax credits, like for Tesla and electric cars, would be a much better idea, It’s specious reasoning maybe, but is it a lie?

    On Thursday, which was a great meeting with the CEOs, there was uniform consensus that what the president needed to do was tariffs, not quotas and it needed to be across-the-board.

    That’s probably true, no? It was a handpicked audience.

    There was an op-ed article in the Wall Street Journal of Saturday/Sunday which said that Ronald Reagan also engaged in protectionism, but the difference is, he us ed quotas, and thos quotas were negotiated.

    WALLACE: So, in answer to my direct question, will he exempt Canada? Will he exempt the European Union?

    NAVARRO: That’s not his decision.

    That’s not a lie. I understood what he meant. It was begging the quesiton. He said that isn’t what Donald Trump decided to do. How could Chris Wallace miss that?

    Sammy Finkelman (02a146)

  117. Or running them over by tanks, what really holds china together in this era, its not really economics is it solely their military?

    narciso (d1f714)

  118. Later, he gets closer to lies.

    The mission is to defend our steel and aluminum industries so that they survive it and as the president said clearly and correctly, we can’t have a country without steel and aluminum industry.

    Now that is, of course, baloney, but I am not sure if you can characterize a ridiculous argument as a lie. Maybe yes.

    NAVARRO: I don’t believe any country in the world is going to retaliate for the simple reason that we are the most lucrative and biggest market in the world.

    (END VIDEO CLIP)

    WALLACE: Mr. Navarro, do you really believe that?

    NAVARRO: Yes, I do. And let’s give it some perspective. We have the lowest tariffs in the world. We have the lowest nontariff barriers. We are the free-tradest (ph) nation of the world.

    This could be a lie.

    It’s not that they will retaliate on a major scale. But the reason they won’t retaliate , though, is because tariffs hurt the economy which imposes the tariffs.

    And is also not true that there is no retaliation planned. There is some, but it is politically targeted. Europe is planning to put tariifs on goods that are disproportionately manufacturedd in states represented by Republicans – like on Kentucky bourbon.

    We don’t get fair and reciprocal trade. We get every year a half a trillion dollar trade deficit that transfers our wealth to other countries and basically offshore our jobs and our factories.

    If you are a mercantalist, you can believe this.

    The head of the European Commission said this: We will put tariffs on Harley-Davidson, on bourbon and on blue jeans, Levi’s.

    Question, is he bluffing?

    NAVARRO: Well, they already have tariffs on that. If you go to India, for example, there’s 100 percent tariff on our Harleys. But —

    WALLACE: I’m asking you about the European Union. Do you believe he is bluffing when he says they’re going to impose new tariffs?

    He evades the question here, but I don’t know if you can say that he lies.

    NAVARRO: I’m going to finish this point. All of the countries in Europe that we trade with run very large trade surpluses with us, we run trade deficits with them. Who gets hurt if this goes the direction that you are suggesting? I believe that these are measured tariffs —

    Maybe a lie. The tariffs may not be too big, though.

    WALLACE: I am not suggesting anything. I’m asking you questions and I take objection to the idea that talk of trade wars is an invention of the media when the president tweeted out —

    NAVARRO: Oh, come on now.

    WALLACE: — trade wars are good and easy to win.

    I have limited time.

    NAVARRO: You guys are fanning the flames here. What I’m trying to say —

    WALLACE: I’m fanning the flames? I didn’t write the presidential tweet.

    NAVARRO: What I’m trying to say in a measured way is that from the rest of the world’s perspective, they are getting a really good deal from America running big trade surpluses with us, and we are asking for is fair and reciprocal trade. In this particular case, I would hope the allies would understand that we need to defend our aluminum and steel —

    Nonsense, yes, but a lie?

    and definitely the kind of guy who’s woken up after a lot of short naps on a barroom floor.

    But Trumpkins will doubtless swoon — he’s tough! And he wants to punch back!

    So the American consumer will indeed take it on the chin.
    +

    Sammy Finkelman (02a146)

  119. Some White House senior staff accused you of guerrilla warfare, saying that you sneak around the West Wing and go into the Oval Office and runaround policy meetings to personally lobby the president and that frankly a number of senior staff were surprised when the president made this announcement on Thursday.

    How do you plead?

    NAVARRO: I would say that sitting here on a Sunday with you, that’s a bit of a cheap shot, that there’s no facts and evidence to support that and if I’ve learned anything in the 14 months here in Washington on the White House it’s that there’s all sorts of malicious leaks that go into try to hurt us.

    And the culture in the White House now is if they go after one of us, they go after all of us. We are a team together. The president is doing a great job and I stand on my writings.

    I can tell you that as the China issue is one that we have the country are going to have to address because it’s a serious matter.

    Navarro doesn’t answer the question.

    Sammy Finkelman (02a146)

  120. 111. shipwreckedcrew (56b591) — 3/4/2018 @ 12:00 pm

    What would China gain by sinking a US aircraft carrier in the South China Sea in disputed waters?

    Why do you suspect the most advanced weapons systems developed by the Chinese are air-to-sea ship killing missles?

    Is China willing to risk a military conflict with the US involving naval forces, with the expectation that such a conflict would not escalate to a nuke exchange??? Hmmmmmm.

    China would have some other country, like Iran, try that out first, and only when they are ready. There are undoubtedly people in the Chinese military who would like to see what would happen in North Korea used aatomic bomb.

    Sammy Finkelman (02a146)

  121. @44. Hoagie, when it rains, it pours. Nor’easters are a b-tch. So glad to read you are on the mend- probably better you were at UofP through it than at home anyway. Fix you first, then the roof. You could always unload those $ bills you found should insurance come up short — but all the same, don’t forget to look for any old $500 bills hidden in the walls or under any shingles. 😉

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  122. I think shipwreck was asking rhetorical questions Sammy, but carry on.

    Ben burn (636263)

  123. @107. Yep.

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  124. Well that would settle many problem:
    https://mobile.twitter.com/ArmyTimes/status/970380478170783744

    narciso (d1f714)

  125. Yes, we should definitely adopt the EU as our economic paradigm. *rolls eyes*

    Yes, indeed, but the EU’s outrage over OUR tariffs seems a bit hypocritical.

    Kevin M (752a26)

  126. Glad to hear you’re better, Hoagie.

    nk (dbc370)

  127. What would China gain by sinking a US aircraft carrier in the South China Sea in disputed waters?

    This would result in war. Hopefully they don’t do it with a nuke.

    Whether we would immediately attempt to eliminate their ICBMs is a question (I think not, because they’d be prepared). But it would be war, and China would lose that war in detail, again barring nukes. At least this decade.

    Kevin M (752a26)

  128. Navarro doesn’t answer the question.

    Sammy Finkelman (02a146) — 3/4/2018 @ 12:46 pm

    More of Wallace’s “mean gurl”-style questioning. I watched the whole thing and Navarro wasn’t having any of it.

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  129. But it would be war, and China would lose that war in detail, again barring nukes.

    It seems kind of silly to say they would lose, when we have no idea what their aims were in starting the hypothetical war.

    I hope I’m wrong, but I think we’d be hard-pressed to prevent them from occupying Taiwan without staggering (in dollar terms) naval losses.

    I think it less likely that they’d attack South Korea, but Kim could well take advantage of Sino-US hostilities to do it himself, attempting to draw the Chinese in and take advantage of our engagement with a more powerful (than North Korea) country.

    On the other hand, they import about half their oil, and I think we could blockade them quite effectively from a distance if we were at leisure to do so. They would inflict losses on us, but nothing like what it would cost to keep Taiwan afloat.

    I pray President Postliterate Bestwords doesn’t lead us into a war…

    Dave (445e97)

  130. What would China gain by sinking a US aircraft carrier in the South China Sea in disputed waters?

    shipwreckedcrew (56b591) — 3/4/2018 @ 12:00 pm

    Hot Rolled Steel.

    Pinandpuller (16b0b5)

  131. Well they get their oil from the kingdom Iran and Sudan in roughly that order. Steinhauer suggests an operation against China in the last , in his travel agency series

    narciso (d1f714)

  132. OK, that’s a lie because there are enough zeroes.

    Sammy Finkelman (02a146) — 3/4/2018 @ 12:38 pm

    But are there enough pilots?

    Pinandpuller (16b0b5)

  133. It used to be the fulda gap here was the tripwire:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/world-europe-43134896

    narciso (d1f714)

  134. I blame recycling.

    papertiger (c8116c)

  135. But are there enough pilots?
    Pinandpuller (16b0b5) — 3/4/2018 @ 6:27 pm

    groan… 😉

    Rev.Hoagie,
    Glad to hear you’re improving. Keep up the recovery.

    Stashiu3 (466cdf)

  136. So I’m listening to Stephan Molyneaux and this Polish feller Janusz Korwin-Mikka who says economic growth in Poland was one percent under communism, rose to eight percent under capitalism and is now back to one percent under the EU.

    Pinandpuller (16b0b5)

  137. Sorry, that’s actually Stefan. He did say something funny that may be an old saw:

    I catch three fish. The government takes the three fish, gives me back two and says I can’t eat without the government.

    Pinandpuller (16b0b5)

  138. I blame recycling,,,

    and the American Pickers, hoarding all that old rusted stuff.

    papertiger (c8116c)

  139. What would China gain by sinking a US aircraft carrier in the South China Sea in disputed waters?

    I guess it would also net them a … ship-wrecked crew.

    Dave (445e97)

  140. If anyone remembers waaaaay waaaaay back on January, 22nd, 2018 when Trump had imposed tariffs on solar panels, the pundits and mainstream media were screaming that the solar manufacturing and installation businesses in the U.S. would be severely harmed. Here we are six weeks later and China’s building a solar panel plant in Florida, providing manufacturing jobs and less expensive panels:

    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/31/trump-solar-tariff-scores-a-big-win-commentary.html

    Wonder why we haven’t heard the same level of noise about this news as we did when the tariffs were announced?

    Lenny (5ea732)

  141. Seppuku-watch for Kawasaki-san, narciso..

    Lenny (5ea732)

  142. Best line I saw yesterday re Oscars:

    “I learned more about Dunkirk from two minutes of Darkest Hour than I did from all of Dunkirk”.

    harkin (8256c3)

  143. And meanwhile, as the controversy over trade tariffs raged, the Treasury department closed the carried interest loophole that benefits ultra-wealthy investors…..sweet! Trump just padded his powerful enemies list.

    https://www.politico.com/agenda/story/2018/03/02/trump-policy-education-methane-trade-000646

    Lenny (5ea732)

  144. 125. Ben burn (636263) — 3/4/2018 @ 2:06 pm

    125.I think shipwreck was asking rhetorical questions Sammy, but carry on.

    I said China wouldn’t be the first to sink a U.S. aircraft carrier: They’d have some other country, like maybe Iran, try it out first and see what happens. They are not yet at the stage to try this experiment.

    The U.S. also isn’t weak enough yet.

    Also, with a president like Trump – even if all aircraft carriers are proven to be vulnerable, the answer is not likely to be simply accepting that.

    Sammy Finkelman (02a146)

  145. Wow! Patterico appears to have read Ricardo.

    Tell me Pat, what did Ricardo have to say about the costs of throwing the human capital of your fellow citizens’ training and experience away, to eke out miserable opiated lives on taxpayer-gouged welfare? Because as far as I could see, he considered workers to be undifferentiated replaceable widgets.

    The Ricardist narrative transfers wealth from us and from foreign slaves to oligarchs, while we mortgage our grandchildren’s future to buy back the foreign production with play money. Socialized costs, privatized benefits.

    phunctor (bf276f)

  146. Breaking- Gary Cohn has just resigned.

    And another one bites the dust…

    DCSCA (797bc0)


Powered by WordPress.

Page loaded in: 0.4586 secs.