Russia Is Belatedly Learning Our Lesson in the Middle East
[guest post by JVW]
From the Washington Post, added emphasis is mine:
BEIRUT — The United Nations appealed for an immediate cease-fire in Syria on Tuesday as spiraling violence pushed the country to the brink of one of the worst humanitarian crises in the seven-year war.
A halt to the fighting for at least a month is vital to allow urgently needed aid to reach 2.9 million stricken people living around the front lines of the latest fighting, the U.N. mission in Damascus said, warning of “dire consequences” if the current levels of violence are sustained.
The appeal coincides with the collapse in recent weeks of a year-old Russian effort to tamp down the violence through “de-escalation zones,” which had helped contribute to a perception that the war in Syria finally was winding down.
Instead, the first weeks of 2018 have turned into one of the bloodiest periods of the conflict yet, with hundreds killed in airstrikes, nearly 300,000 displaced in northwestern Syria and 400,000 at risk of starvation in a besieged area east of Damascus that has not received food since November.
And, in the 100th anniversary year of the end of the First World War, Bashar al-Assad is apparently sponsoring a “turn back the clock” night at the ballpark:
There has also been a spike in the number of reports of attacks by the government using chlorine as a chemical weapon, prompting warnings from the United States to the Syrian government to desist and to Russia to pressure its ally to halt the attacks. There have been six reported attacks using bombs laden with chlorine in the past month, the State Department said, adding that Washington is “gravely alarmed” by the continued allegations of the use of chlorine gas.
If the West ever had any good options here, and frankly we probably didn’t, there certainly aren’t any available now. It’s pretty likely that displaced Syrians will once again seek passage to Europe, should they get the opportunity, which will further strain already-tense relations among Western Europe and Central Europe. Meanwhile, it keeps getting worse around Damascus:
A separate crisis is developing east of Damascus, in the rebel-held enclave of Ghouta, where over 400,000 people surrounded by government forces have been reliant on U.N. aid for the past four years. The Syrian government has prevented all deliveries of food to the area since November, putting the population at risk of starvation, and has refused to allow the evacuation of about 600 people injured in the fighting to hospitals in nearby Damascus, [UN muckety-muck Panos] Moumtzis said.
Syrian warplanes pounded the area Tuesday, conducting over 40 strikes and killing at least 37 people, according to the Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, which monitors violence in Syria. Activists in the area later said more than 70 people had died in the raids.
Later in the day, five civilians died when rebels fired shells into government-controlled neighborhoods in Damascus, including three in the historic Bab Touma district of the Old City, according to the official Syrian news agency SANA.
Those strikes followed an onslaught of airstrikes by Russian and Syrian warplanes against rebel-held towns and villages in Idlib on Sunday and Monday, in apparent retaliation for the downing of a Russian warplane in the province Saturday. At least three hospitals or health facilities were hit in the strikes, which recall some of the worst periods of the war.
And, whenever chaos reigns you can count on a bad actor to appear on the scene to try and take advantage of it. Enter stage left the Turk:
The incursion by the Turkish army into the Kurdish-controlled enclave of Afrin has further complicated the war, displacing more than 15,000 people and adding new obstacles to efforts to resolve the war.
Putin fancies himself has a major world player, and indeed, he seems to be an obsession right now with the American left and a significant portion the American right. But he’s meddling in a part of the world that has a way of humbling the powerful and smacking them right in the face with bitter realities. I wonder if democracy advocates in Lebanon see this as an opening, and if they do, can they win support from NATO or will the West just dismiss the idea as expanding an already miserable war.
– JVW
Anybody have any idea of how the West should respond to this?
JVW (42615e) — 2/7/2018 @ 1:24 pmHave a big-a$$ military parade.
harkin (75fedf) — 2/7/2018 @ 1:45 pmholy shmoly you patterico people click on that wapo crap like it’s on sale two for a dollar
i’ll read the post here in a second but i abjure this on principle
happyfeet (28a91b) — 2/7/2018 @ 1:55 pmI thought you were going to say Russia moved their embassy to Jerusalem.
Pinandpuller (f4bc4f) — 2/7/2018 @ 2:05 pmI could have sworn this was going to be a post dripping in sarcasm, given our country’s continued entanglement in Afghanistan.
Leviticus (efada1) — 2/7/2018 @ 2:08 pmWell we screwed the Kurds, so no good deed.
narciso (d1f714) — 2/7/2018 @ 2:10 pmthe way we should respond to this is to make it as problematic for those trashy perverted genocidal turkey losers as possible
so we should arm the kurds and encourage them to get creative
nato’s pretty gay, but we still we need to get the turkish filth out of there, and we can use this syria thing to help make that happen
happyfeet (28a91b) — 2/7/2018 @ 2:11 pmI could have sworn this was going to be a post dripping in sarcasm, given our country’s continued entanglement in Afghanistan.
Uh, hence the whole title about learning our lesson.
JVW (42615e) — 2/7/2018 @ 2:15 pmWe never should have followed Princeton trash Wilson into The Great War. The so called World’s Policeman should not get involved in another foreign domestic dispute. We need to be investigating corruption by the last Police Commissioner.
Pinandpuller (f4bc4f) — 2/7/2018 @ 2:15 pmnato’s pretty gay, but we still we need to get the turkish filth out of there, and we can use this syria thing to help make that happen
You aren’t a believer in “inside the tent pissing out” then, happyfeet?
JVW (42615e) — 2/7/2018 @ 2:16 pmnot with turkey
you have to have *some* standards
happyfeet (28a91b) — 2/7/2018 @ 2:16 pmMy idea about supporting Lebanese independence movements is the only real opportunity I think NATO has for playing offense here. Make Syria and Iran either devote resources there or decide to cut it loose. Lebanon seems to be the Middle Eastern country that has had the most legitimate opposition movement over the last decade, that is to say one not obviously tied to the Muslim Brotherhood and other rancid elements. Of course, bringing Lebanon in to this invites more bloodshed, should Syria and Iran decide to extend the theater of operations there. Again, no good choices.
JVW (42615e) — 2/7/2018 @ 2:19 pmThey’re pulling a fast one with the reporting. Ghouta is to Damascas what Queens is to Manhattan.
So the chinless guy is using his and Putin’s air force to police his Capital city. “… conducting over 40 strikes and killing at least 37 people…”
Don’t need to be a rocket scientist to know that’s not sustainable.
Where’s he got left to run to?
papertiger (c8116c) — 2/7/2018 @ 3:37 pmHe’s one step away from exile. Is Elba available?
Maybe the idea behind a cease fire is so Bashire can scout around for a white cloth and a stick.
papertiger (c8116c) — 2/7/2018 @ 3:45 pmNot sure why you think things are going badly for Russia. Their guy is winning.
James B. Shearer (c4f4d7) — 2/7/2018 @ 4:15 pmNot sure why you think things are going badly for Russia. Their guy is winning.
It seems to me to be very similar to Iraq in 2005. Russia and Assad feel like they are on the verge of squashing the enemy once and for all (like we did in 2005), but the pesky buggers keep emerging and reemerging. The article mentions that Russia was trying to establish these “de-escalation” zones, yet they continue to have to make airstrikes which are killing civilians and Assad is so spooked and/or frustrated that he is back to using chemical weapons. Doesn’t seem like winning to me, just slogging through.
JVW (42615e) — 2/7/2018 @ 4:30 pmMebbe the Sunnis can sell the US another Surge of Anerican taxpayer revenue just for beer money..
Ben burn (b3d5ab) — 2/7/2018 @ 4:41 pm… The article mentions that Russia was trying to establish these “de-escalation” zones, …
Why assume these efforts are sincere, rather than a charade to defuse calls for a cease fire while military efforts continue?
… Doesn’t seem like winning to me, just slogging through.
If the Assad regime keeps expanding the area it controls that looks like winning to me.
James B. Shearer (c4f4d7) — 2/7/2018 @ 4:52 pm19
It seems to me to be very similar to Iraq in 2005. …
Seems more like Iraq in 2017 to me.
James B. Shearer (c4f4d7) — 2/7/2018 @ 4:54 pmThe more things change, the more they stay the same.
JVW (42615e) — 2/7/2018 @ 4:56 pmLebanon has always been a sectarian tripod, and unstable for decades (when did Reagan put in the Marines in Beirut?). Syria clamped down and applied pressure to achieve the current situation. Taking away that pressure may be the cue for another war of all against all.
Plus the added fun of Hezbollah deciding war with Israel is good for itself….
Kishnevi (eb30e0) — 2/7/2018 @ 5:50 pmWell Hezbollah has been weakened in men and materiel from the confrontation with the Sunni SalAfi, that was the part of the reason for operation cassandra
narciso (d1f714) — 2/7/2018 @ 6:04 pmcollapse in recent weeks of a year-old Russian effort to tamp down the violence through “de-escalation zones,”
The purpose of the de-escalation zones is to keep the United States from intervening in Syria, bby letting it believe, until it’s too late, that its allies will be protected, and not actually to de-escalate anything, and that should be obvious. All this is a success for Russia, and not a failure.
No, They won’t, because Erdogen has given orders to shoot anyone who tries to cross the Turkish border and that is what Europe wants, because they don’t want any more refugees, thanks to continuing Russian propaganda against them, about how they rape people and everything.
Many Syrians are at high risk of being massacred.
Sammy Finkelman (02a146) — 2/8/2018 @ 9:14 am