Patterico's Pontifications

11/5/2017

Oh No — Shooting at Texas Church, Multiple Deaths, Story Developing

Filed under: General — JVW @ 12:10 pm

[guest post by JVW]

Details are coming in. A shooter has attacked the First Baptist Church of Sutherland Springs, near San Antonio. The BBC is reporting at least 27 deaths on its Facebook page. Fox News says that the shooter is dead.

More to come. What a horrible thing to happen at a house of worship on the Lord’s Day.

– JVW

The BCS Field Winnows Down

Filed under: General — JVW @ 11:09 am

[guest post by JVW]

As a follow-up to my post last month ranking the college football teams, I wanted to update it now that we are rounding into the final quarter of the regular season. Since we last debated the relative merits of teams, there is been a great deal of movement in the rankings. Ohio State, Penn State, and Washington State are now all two-loss teams, and I think that barring some crazy upsets among the top ten those squads are no longer in contention for a BCS Playoff appearance. In fact, I think that there are now only ten remaining teams with a reasonable chance to be in the Rose Bowl or Sugar Bowl (the two BCS semi-final games) on New Year’s Day. Here are my rankings, with how I think they will finish out the regular season which includes conference championship games:

1. ALABAMA (9-0)
Best win: a 66-3 demolishing of Ole Miss
Toughest game ahead: SEC Championship vs. Georgia
Notes: Has slipped to #2 in the BCS poll because their schedule is surprisingly weak this season, with the SEC West having a down year.
Prediction for finish: 13-0

2. GEORGIA (9-0)
Best win: an early-season 20-19 win at Notre Dame
Toughest game ahead: SEC Championship vs. Alabama
Notes: Possibly the only team that can beat the Tide. Could still make the BCS Playoffs with a loss in the SEC Championship, provided they don’t get blown out which could open the door for a Pac-10 team like Washington.
Prediction for finish: 12-1

3. WISCONSIN (9-0)
Best win: an early-season 31-14 win vs. Florida Atlantic
Toughest game ahead: November 17 vs. Michigan, Big 10 Championship likely vs. Ohio State
Notes: Another team benefiting from a weak conference schedule. Even if undefeated going into Big 10 title game, would still need to win in order to secure playoff spot.
Prediction for finish: 11-2

4. MIAMI (8-0)
Best win: yesterday’s 28-10 drubbing of Virginia Tech
Toughest game ahead: November 11 vs. Notre Dame, ACC Championship against Clemson
Notes: It’s hard to see them beating both the Irish and the Tigers, but if they do they will certainly deserve a BCS Playoff spot. Intriguing thought: they may end up in an Orange Bowl rematch with Notre Dame.
Prediction for finish: 10-2

5. OKLAHOMA (8-1)
Best win: the early season 31-16 win at Ohio State
Worst loss: a 38-31 home loss to Iowa State
Toughest game ahead: next week hosting TCU
Notes: Scores points in bunches but hasn’t stopped anyone defensively since Ohio State
Prediction for finish: 11-1 [revised to 12-1]

6. NOTRE DAME (8-1)
Best win: a 49-14 stomping of USC three weeks ago
Worst loss: a 20-19 heartbreaker to Georgia
Toughest game ahead: next week at Miami, then Thanksgiving Friday at Stanford
Notes: Despite not having a conference title game, has a clear path to BCS Playoffs if they win rest of regular season games.
Prediction for finish: 10-2

7. CLEMSON (8-1)
Best win: a 31-17 win at Virginia Tech
Worst loss: an unexpected 27-24 defeat by Syracuse
Toughest game ahead: ACC Championship game likely vs. Miami
Notes: Should make BCS Playoffs if they win out the rest of the way
Prediction for finish: 12-1

8. TCU (8-1)
Best win: a 44-31 victory on the road against Oklahoma State
Worst loss: a 14-7 upset at giant-killer Iowa State
Toughest game ahead: next week at Oklahoma
Notes: Will the Big 12 be punished for not having a conference title game? A one-loss Washington might leapfrog a one-loss Horned Frogs based upon at the one additional game.
Prediction for finish: 10-2 [revised to 10-3]

9. WASHINGTON (8-1)
Best win: a 37-10 win at Colorado (seriously)
Worst loss: losing 13-7 in the desert against Arizona State
Toughest game ahead: Thanksgiving Friday against Washington State, Pac-12 title game likely against USC
Notes: Hurt by a weak schedule and a weak conference. Will need losses by Oklahoma and Wisconsin to reach BCS Playoffs again this year.
Prediction for finish: 12-1

10. CENTRAL FLORIDA (8-0)
Best win: a 38-10 pounding of Maryland at College Park
Toughest game ahead: Thanksgiving Day hosting South Florida
Notes: Still being hurt in BCS rankings by the two games cancelled due to the September hurricanes. Even if undefeated probably won’t surpass a one-loss Big Five Conference team for a BCS playoff spot, so needs Georgia, Notre Dame, Wisconsin, Oklahoma, TCU, and Washington all to have two losses in order to have any chance.
Prediction for finish: 12-0

I have the Rose Bowl being #1 Alabama versus #4 Oklahoma and the Sugar Bowl being #2 Georgia versus #3 Clemson. Wisconsin could steal Oklahoma’s spot if they can win the Big 10 title game against (probably) Ohio State.

Go ahead and tell me where I am wrong.

[Update/Edit:] I am wrong. The Big 12 Conference is going to have a championship game. Instead of doing two divisions like other large conferences, they are going to take their top two regular season teams and match them up in Arlington, TX on December 3. My apologies for overlooking that; I have modified the post above accordingly. Notre Dame is now the only squad who misses out on not having a championship game.

– JVW

Sunday Music: Bach Cantata BWV 38

Filed under: Bach Cantatas,General — Patterico @ 7:00 am

Composed for the 21st Sunday after Trinity, the title of the cantata is “Aus tiefer Not schrei ich zu dir” which translates as “Out of deep anguish I call to You.” It was first performed on October 19, 1724.

The text is here. The cantata is based on a hymn of the same name, with the text provided by Martin Luther himself, based on Psalm 130. Here is a Mendelssohn setting of the melody of the chorale as a motet:

In Bach’s time, the Gospel reading for the 21st Sunday after Trinity was John 4:46–54, the healing of the royal official’s son:

Once more he visited Cana in Galilee, where he had turned the water into wine. And there was a certain royal official whose son lay sick at Capernaum. When this man heard that Jesus had arrived in Galilee from Judea, he went to him and begged him to come and heal his son, who was close to death.

“Unless you people see signs and wonders,” Jesus told him, “you will never believe.”

The royal official said, “Sir, come down before my child dies.”

“Go,” Jesus replied, “your son will live.”

The man took Jesus at his word and departed. While he was still on the way, his servants met him with the news that his boy was living. When he inquired as to the time when his son got better, they said to him, “Yesterday, at one in the afternoon, the fever left him.”

Then the father realized that this was the exact time at which Jesus had said to him, “Your son will live.” So he and his whole household believed.

This was the second sign Jesus performed after coming from Judea to Galilee.

I hope to do a post about one of the Bach cantatas every Sunday for the foreseeable future.

Happy listening!

[Cross-posted at RedState and The Jury Talks Back.]


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