Patterico's Pontifications

two people close to Trump’s transition said Monday night…The people close to his transition team insisted on anonymity because they were not authorized to disclose the decision ahead of that announcement.

I’ll wait for the announcement.

Gabriel Hanna (14083c) — 12/12/2016 @ 8:21 pm

He withdraws and won’t even get a hearing. Then, we get Mitt. It’s too much to hope for that Bolton gets it.

Ed from SFV (3400a5) — 12/12/2016 @ 8:22 pm

I would like to see Carly or Mr John Bolton as Secretary of State.
It’s time to vote John Forbes Kerry off the island!

Cruz Supporter (102c9a) — 12/12/2016 @ 8:24 pm

And Perry may be selected as energy secretary.

narciso (d1f714) — 12/12/2016 @ 8:25 pm

As much as I don’t like Trump, I’ve been okay to happy with most of his picks so far.

Not this one, though. I’d rather have Romney or Bolton.

Or, hey, what’s Kissinger doing these days? (Only mostly sarcastic.)

Demosthenes (09f714) — 12/12/2016 @ 8:58 pm

Bolton can’t get 10 votes. Rand Paul is going to vote against him, and the Foreign Relations Committee has only a 10-9 GOP majority. I think they will make him a recess appointment, and have him run point on clearing out Foggy Bottom in the one year he’ll have.

Then the GOP will pick up some votes in the Senate in the next mid-term, get an extra vote or two on Foreign Relations, and Bolton will be the next Sec. of State after whoever gets the job first.

I think members of the Senate will very soon come to learn that Mr. Tillerson has powerful friends all over the world, and they will be strong-armed into supporting him, including a few Dems.

shipwreckedcrew (56b591) — 12/12/2016 @ 9:13 pm

what’s the difference between a syphilitic east german hooker and a failmerican cia agent’s chubby diabetic wife?

the east german hooker has higher self-esteem and a can-do attitude

happyfeet (28a91b) — 12/12/2016 @ 9:19 pm

Rand Paul is as big of a prickly cactus as his father.

Cruz Supporter (102c9a) — 12/12/2016 @ 9:19 pm

#7 Mr happyfeet, I was going to answer that they both make love to people who are trying to screw america. (LOL)

Cruz Supporter (102c9a) — 12/12/2016 @ 9:25 pm

I love Mr. Tillerson he’s a real american – a genuine honest to god american… not a weirdo childless lesbo like condi clueless rice not a cowardly uniform-disgracer like cowardly lickspittle colin powell (powell doctrine lol) not a diseased criminal pig like hillary nasty-assed clinton not a fancy girly boi like Mr. Johnny Heinz

worst ruling class ever?

the times they are a-changin’ yes they are

buckle up

happyfeet (28a91b) — 12/12/2016 @ 9:27 pm

I suppose someone in the CIA will be quoted anonymously that Russia influenced the pick.

AZ Bob (f7a491) — 12/12/2016 @ 9:52 pm

Hands across the aisle…

Hillary for Sec of State! She has the experience of making friends with Russia and how many more people/nations can she really get killed?

/Sarc Off

BfC (5517e8) — 12/12/2016 @ 9:55 pm

happyfeet

What’s Hillary have in common with China?

They both have a one girl policy.

Pinandpuller (a6b21d) — 12/12/2016 @ 10:19 pm

In a comment at the tail end of a recent thread here, I quoted at some length from a New Yorker article about Tillerson, the gist of which is, I think, whatever you call the opposite of “damning by faint praise.” Would that be “endorsement by faint condemnation,” perhaps? shipwreckedcrew also had a follow-up comment (#100) about the New Yorker piece.

I think his odds of confirmation are good and will rapidly improve when he does some public speaking. I also think this is may be a savvy fight for Trump to pick: There is a sizeable lobby on the Left who will freak out over the CEO of Exxon — whoever he might be, at any point in time and regardless of everything else — being nominated to a cabinet post. They will go predictably b*tsh*t crazy in ways that are obviously anti-business, and that may also be, or at least be capable of being spun as being, anti-American as well. Although the media and a lot of Leftie organizations will get all ginned up, though, I think Tillerson will pick up a healthy number of Democrat votes in the Senate — given that this will be the first salvo in the battle for control of the Senate in 2020, when a record number of Dem incumbents will be up for reelection in states in which Clinton did very poorly.

This is not Carl Icahn, thank goodness.

Beldar (fa637a) — 12/12/2016 @ 11:08 pm

I didn’t know Tillerson because he graduated from UT-Austin’s engineering program in 1975, just before I arrived on campus and joined the Longhorn Band myself. But the fact that he was a percussion section leader in the Longhorn Band is, of course, proof that Tillerson is slightly crazy, since there is at least a rebuttable presumption that all percussionists are slightly crazy. I did, and do, know his sister Rae Ann was a piccolo section leader and she was perfectly sane.

happyfeet is, like the proverbial stopped clock, right on this occasion about Tillerson being an ordinary guy despite being the CEO of a Fortune 20 corporation.

Beldar (fa637a) — 12/12/2016 @ 11:30 pm

By far the wisest choice for Secretary of State at this century.

And a pragmatist, not an ideologue, as you’d expect from a petroleum executive with his international experience at that level.

Committee will showboat with the usual suspects looking all the more smaller, if that’s possible, performing for the cameras in the shadow of this nominee. Then vote accordingly.

Rex Tillerson will be an exceptional Secretary of State for the United States… for a Texan. ;-).

DCSCA (797bc0) — 12/12/2016 @ 11:32 pm

This is the one they get to crap on just to show they’re independent in the Senate.

Kevin M (25bbee) — 12/12/2016 @ 11:35 pm

…happyfeet is, like the proverbial stopped clock, right on this occasion about Tillerson being an ordinary guy despite being the CEO of a Fortune 20 corporation.
Beldar (fa637a) — 12/12/2016 @ 11:30 pm

If you say so. I defer to your judgement.

Steve57 (0b1dac) — 12/13/2016 @ 1:11 am

The fact that Romney has been informed that he is not the choice, makesthis sound like a Vice Presidential pick, which might mean the announcement is indeed close, because potential vice presidential nominees get calls only shortly before the decision is announced.

Sammy Finkelman (20cc53) — 12/13/2016 @ 3:32 am

Whether Tillerson gets out of committee and gets confirmed depends on how he answers the questions, particularly about Russia, with Democrats, maybe all Democrats, starting out against him because of oil.

The Senate is divided 52-48, in favor of the Republicans, counting Bernie Sanders (who is now officially a Democrat) and Angus King, and th Democrats then would need only three more votes to stop it, assuming North Dakota Senator Heidi Heitkamp doesn’t get named to some position by Donald Trump and replaced by a Republican before the vote, or even not replaced yet.

And two of those Senators are John McCain and Lindsey Graham, so it may be up to John McCain, and if he comes out against Tillerson, he does not get confirmed. Their ally, Kelly Ayotte, lost her race for re-electipn in New Hampshire, and was replaced by a Democrat, so he has ony one virtually automatic follower.

If Heidi Heitkamp (or Joe Mannchin) is nominated, confirmed, resigns and is not replaced before the final vote for Secretary of State, there will be 47 Democrats and 52 Republicans, and the Democrats, if all stick together, will still need only 3 Republicans. If Heidi Heitkamp is replaced by a Republican, theer will be 53 Republicans and 47 Democrats, and four Republicans will be needed tod defeat the nomination.

If all Republicans stay in the Senate, and all vote, the vice president would cast teh deciding vote in 50-50 tie, which would happen with the loss of only 2 Republicans.

There is no more filibuster for nominees, except to the Supreme Court.

Sammy Finkelman (20cc53) — 12/13/2016 @ 3:35 am

I think Donald Trump likes Kissinger very much, but Kissinger is 93 now, and travels in a wheelchair (but he travels)

Sammy Finkelman (20cc53) — 12/13/2016 @ 3:37 am

McCain and Graham will get in line behind this pick after they’ve had their moment in the sun.

And there will ultimately be 6-10 Dems who vote in favor.

shipwreckedcrew (56b591) — 12/13/2016 @ 6:35 am

Yeah, he’ll be confirmed.

Patterico (f8a200) — 12/13/2016 @ 6:42 am

As much as I don’t like Trump, I’ve been okay to happy with most of his picks so far.

Not this one, though. I’d rather have Romney or Bolton.

Or, hey, what’s Kissinger doing these days? (Only mostly sarcastic.)

Demosthenes (09f714) — 12/12/2016 @ 8:58 pm

Maybe I’m going to have starting liking Trump. Other than giving McConnell’s wife a job he’s hardly put a foot wrong.

Steve57 (0b1dac) — 12/13/2016 @ 8:09 am

Now that we’ve had the announcement, he’s had the endorsement of establishment figures like Robert Gates and Condoleeza Rice and I don’t imagine he’ll have much trouble.

I don’t know if he’s the “right” guy, don’t really have an opinion on who would be the “right” guy.

Gabriel Hanna (64d4e1) — 12/13/2016 @ 8:11 am

a) Yes
b) 85 (46 R, 39 D)

NeoCon_1 (232cc9) — 12/13/2016 @ 8:33 am

I’ve been pushing for Boton ever since I pondered a run at the presidency, but that failed to materialize, so I guess I’ll hafta go along with thw guy who got elected..

Maybe in 2020.–

NeoCon_1 (232cc9) — 12/13/2016 @ 8:35 am

rex means king google it it’s a known true fact

happyfeet (28a91b) — 12/13/2016 @ 8:37 am

Once the Tillerson story dies down a bit I wouldn’t be surprised to see Romney announced as the pick for ambassador to Russia reminding Papa Bear we can be friends or enemies – your choice.

crazy (d3b449) — 12/13/2016 @ 8:39 am

Greetings:

Speaking of Russia, how’s about the brouhaha about Mr. Trump’s Secretary of State (and perhaps dear Victoria Nuland’s next boss) nomination. Some of the things that disturb (among others one Senator McCain another hero of the Maidan) are his forty year career with Exxon/Mobil and that he has made business deals with people some people don’t like, Miscreant from the Bronx that I am, I thought that making deals with people you don’t like was kind of the essence of diplomacy. And rising to the top of a long-term profitable global corporation would seem to icing on the cake. Not only does the guy read books, he can also read numbers.

It continues to amaze me more than a bit how much of the flood of Trump pre-inauguration criticism could/would/should have been applied to the Obama administration but recent historical analogies no longer seem to enthrall what left of the lefty media. Somehow dear Hillary (a prominent hero of both BenGhazi and Moscow) has no value as a reference.

11B40 (6abb5c) — 12/13/2016 @ 8:41 am

29. crazy (d3b449) — 12/13/2016 @ 8:39 am

Once the Tillerson story dies down a bit I wouldn’t be surprised to see Romney announced as the pick for ambassador to Russia

He’s been mentioned as Ambassador to France – he spent time there as a missionary. But what would fit historical precedent is Ambassador to Japan. A lot of U.s. Ambassadors to Japan have bene people who sounded very important:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Ambassador_to_Japan

Here are some of them listed, woth their former positions)

Mike Mansfield (United States Senate Majority Leader) June 10, 1977 to December 22, 1988

Walter Mondale (Vice President and major party Presidential nominee) September 21, 1993 to December 15, 1996

Thomas S. Foley (House Speaker) November 19, 1997 to April 1, 2001

Howard Henry Baker, Jr. (Senate Majority Leader, and White House chief of staff)
July 5, 2001 to February 17, 2005

Caroline Kennedy (daughter of a president – the only available Kennedy, and co-endorser,. wth ted Kennedy of Barack Oabama for president in 2008 which maybe turned the tide against Hillary)
November 12, 2013 to date.

11B40 (6abb5c) — 12/13/2016 @ 8:41 am

It continues to amaze me more than a bit how much of the flood of Trump pre-inauguration criticism could/would/should have been applied to the Obama administration

Literally true. Trump has appointed (so far) three generals, and Obama appointed 3 generals.

Sammy Finkelman (2e9ec5) — 12/13/2016 @ 11:31 am

Mike Mansfield
Walter Mondale
Thomas S. Foley
Howard Henry Baker, Jr.
Caroline Kennedy

One of these things is not like the others,
One of these things just doesn’t belong,

Kevin M (25bbee) — 12/13/2016 @ 12:03 pm

My neighbor’s basset hound is named Rex.

elissa (530391) — 12/13/2016 @ 12:21 pm

“happyfeet is, like the proverbial stopped clock, right on this occasion about Tillerson being an ordinary guy despite being the CEO of a Fortune 20 corporation.”

– Beldar

With all due respect, Beldar, how can you possibly know this?

Leviticus (efada1) — 12/13/2016 @ 12:22 pm

@Leviticus: Beldar has acquaintances in common with Tillerson, if I’ve been following his comments correctly.

Gabriel Hanna (64d4e1) — 12/13/2016 @ 12:38 pm

we’re clearly entering an age of rex ascendant

a place of never-ending happiness

where you can always see the sun

day or night

happyfeet (28a91b) — 12/13/2016 @ 12:48 pm

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/12/us/politics/rex-tillerson-secretary-of-state-trump.html?_r=0

Mr. Tillerson emerged as a contender on the strong recommendations of James A. Baker III, the secretary of state under President George Bush, and Robert M. Gates, the former defense secretary, according to a person briefed on the process.

Mr. Kushner and Mr. Trump’s chief strategist, Stephen K. Bannon, argued strongly for Mr. Tillerson, and the president-elect was intrigued.

Baker and Gates are more or less anti-interventionists, so that might be the reason. Gates didn’t want bin Laden’s house raided but it wanted it bombed (Michael Flynn on the other hand thinks he should have been captured and put on trial and complained about the DIA not being given access to documents seized at his house.)

Morning Jolt says that Condoleeza Rice also came to support him

https://www.facebook.com/condoleezzarice/posts/1361767703835417

and Dick Cheney and Stephen Hadley,

https://twitter.com/PhilipRucker/status/808515045810388992

https://twitter.com/PhilipRucker/status/808515750856101889

Biut maybe some of that was against Mitt Romney. Mitt Romney, Bob Corker, and David Petraeus were all telephonesd late Monday telling them tyhey were not the choice.

I don’t know if Bolton would be the Undersecretary regardless of who was Secretarfy of State.

Sammy Finkelman (643dcd) — 12/13/2016 @ 1:07 pm

Tillerson wasn’t maybe always so favorable – if he is now – to Putin’s Russia.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/09/world/europe/09petersburg.html

But, like some Europeans in the military and energy spheres, the companies are wary.

Rex Tillerson, chairman and chief executive of Exxon Mobil, stressed that Russia “must improve the functioning of its judicial system and its judiciary. There is no respect for the rule of law in Russia today.”

For more on Tillerson see:

http://heavy.com/news/2016/12/rex-tillerson-vladimir-putin-donald-trump-russia-ties-exxon-mobil-secretary-of-state-deals-reaction-rosneft-sanctions/

Sammy Finkelman (643dcd) — 12/13/2016 @ 1:13 pm

Of course that doesn’t blame Putin.

Sammy Finkelman (643dcd) — 12/13/2016 @ 1:13 pm

@happyfeet: In this life, things are much harder than in the afterworld. In this life, you’re on your own.

Gabriel Hanna (64d4e1) — 12/13/2016 @ 1:16 pm

it’s scary but it’s also exciting

happyfeet (28a91b) — 12/13/2016 @ 1:30 pm

I hope that Mr John Bolton becomes the Deputy Secretary of State.

Cruz Supporter (102c9a) — 12/13/2016 @ 2:37 pm

My neighbor’s basset hound is named Rex.

elissa (530391) — 12/13/2016 @ 12:21 pm

You lucky woman

I mean, that you have a neighbor with a basset hound.

Steve57 (0b1dac) — 12/13/2016 @ 2:55 pm

…I hope that Mr John Bolton becomes the Deputy Secretary of State.

Cruz Supporter (102c9a) — 12/13/2016 @ 2:37 pm

I hope he becomes Anti-Terrorism/Iran Nuclear renegotiation Czar.

Steve57 (0b1dac) — 12/13/2016 @ 2:59 pm

Interesting how all those advocates for the unknown-to-Trump Tillerson were Texas oil patch guys, but the Bush family has been anti-Trump over the way he treated Jeb during the primaries.

shipwreckedcrew (e90d7c) — 12/13/2016 @ 3:05 pm

Steve 57, yes, that would be something to have Mr John Bolton renegotiating the Iran deal. I understand he did some real butt-kicking in Florida during the 2000 Bush/Gore recount.
Mr Bolton’s book, Surrender is Not an Option, is a great addition to any bookshelf.

Cruz Supporter (102c9a) — 12/13/2016 @ 3:05 pm

I know nothing about him, so I will give him the benefit of the doubt.

David in Cal (2b55d5) — 12/13/2016 @ 4:25 pm

@ Leviticus (#34): My knowledge is secondhand, but a close secondhand, as I’ve written in other comments here: During his years at UT-Austin, Tillerson was a percussion section leader in the Longhorn Band. He graduated in May 1975; I started UT-Austin in June 1975; so our tenures in LHB did not overlap, and I don’t recall meeting him in person at any of the Longhorn Alumni Band functions I’ve attended from time to time. His younger sister, Rae Ann, was a piccolo section leader and the Freshman Advisor for my entering class in Fall 1975; my ex and I saw and spoke to Rae Ann as recently as October of this year, and I have firsthand experience to vouch that she is a quality individual. I’ve been aware of Rex Tillerson’s community involvement (which has included support of the Longhorn Band’s scholarships) for many years, and you’ll not be surprised to learn, perhaps, that his recent prominence has generated tons of social media and other commentary — gossip, I suppose — among our common acquaintances.

Beldar (fa637a) — 12/13/2016 @ 7:02 pm

Just as a for-instance: One of our common acquaintances reported chatting at some length with Tillerson at a Texas Exes awards banquet last month at which Tillerson was being honored. During his speech, he spoke of his time in the Longhorn Band and his fondness for its long-time director emeritus, Vincent R. DiNino, and he said the Tillerson family was proud to claim 11 family members, of various generations, in LHB. My friend described him as “absolutely delightful,” a “sweet and humble man” who seemed totally un-stuck on himself.

I assure you that among the common acquaintances who’re speaking up with nice things to say about him are many, many ex-LHB folks who didn’t vote for Trump. But I’ve yet to see anything but enthusiasm about his selection from the folks I know who personally know Rex Tillerson from his time in LHB.

Beldar (fa637a) — 12/13/2016 @ 7:18 pm

I haven’t heard anyone else mention this, but I think these two particulars are very relevant to any fair-minded consideration of Tillerson as a prospective cabinet officer, and especially as the SecState nominee-presumptive:

Unlike Trump himself, and unlike many of Trump’s “running buddies” in the business world (e.g., Carl Icahn), who are involved in multi-billion dollar transactions, Tillerson’s entire career has been at Exxon. Exxon, successor to the Standard Oil Trust, has been under intense, continuous, and hostile public scrutiny for well over a century. Its shares are publicly traded, meaning that it is subject to intense SEC regulation — and ongoing public reporting requirements, quarterly — year after year.

Tillerson is thus far more used to operating under an international public microscope than Trump himself is.

Second, although Tillerson is surely a wealthy man now, he has been, and is, only a tiny minority shareholder in a vast pool of international shareholders. Trump’s relationship (through LLCs and such) to his business has that of principal in addition to chief executive officer. Tillerson, by contrast, isn’t and has never been a principal, but rather an employee and — since becoming a corporate officer — a fiduciary with legal obligations to the company and its shareholders above and beyond those owed by ordinary employees.

I think these points cut strongly in his favor.

Beldar (fa637a) — 12/13/2016 @ 10:46 pm

I will bet you his email security at Exxon has always been better than Hillary’s, too.

Beldar (fa637a) — 12/13/2016 @ 10:53 pm

Of ocurse he will make it out of committee and be confirmed by confortable margins. After all, he is a swamp creature himself.

NC Mountain Girl (7a66ba) — 12/14/2016 @ 9:25 am

HowDEEEEEE!!!!!!!!!

Colonel Haiku (ec6668) — 12/14/2016 @ 9:43 am

50. The Board of Directors of Exxon-Mobil was meeting or schdeuling a meeting the other day to see how they can get rid of conflivts of intrest. Tillerson owns about $200 million worth of Exxon stock.

Sammy Finkelman (dfe091) — 12/14/2016 @ 3:22 pm

I don’t think its his stock that is the problem — he has been given stock options that he is not yet able to exercise or sell.

And there’s a very good story out today (WaPo??) on how Tillerson was brought to Trump’s attention by Robert Gates just a week or so ago, after Trump was unwilling to commit to any of Guiliani/Romney/Patreaus/Bolton. Trump didn’t bring Gates in to vet him for any position, but rather to simply get his POV on some of the positions yet to be filled and the candidates for those positions. Gates has served by Rep. and Dem Presidents, and has never had a whiff of controversy in doing so. Trump asked him for his advice, and if there was anyone else he should be considering, and Gates gave him Tillerson’s name.

shipwreckedcrew (e90d7c) — 12/14/2016 @ 5:24 pm

#beldar, the presumption that all percusionists are at least slighty crazy would be hard to rebut. ANybody who has ever been in a large music ensemble will readily testify to that, even trombonists who come in a close second.

NeoCon_1 (6b4652) — 12/15/2016 @ 12:24 pm

12/12/2016

Tillerson

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