The Brilliance of Paul Ryan’s Putinesque Approach to Trump
Paul Ryan’s rejection of earmarks, discussed here this morning by my colleague Andrea Ruth, is a brilliant example of learning from Vladimir Putin about how to deal with Trump. Putin, a ruthless and cunning politician, has figured out that Donald Trump is a very, very simple man. Flatter him, and he’ll love you, no matter how awful you or your policies are. Insult him, and he’ll hold a grudge.
What does this have to do with Paul Ryan and earmarks? Well, I’m not going to portray Paul Ryan as the greatest foe of earmarks in U.S. history, but opposition to earmarks has been his position for years. His 2012 campaign Web site said:
With pork-barrel spending corrupting Washington, I have been a leader in the fight against earmarks. I have pledged not to submit any new earmark requests until the abusive spending process is cleaned-up in Congress.
But Congresscritters love earmarks. They get to brag about bringing home the bacon. They miss them. What to do?
Ryan has found that he can get what he wants — and get in Trump’s good graces — by saying: “Hey, Donald Trump said he was going to drain the swamp and this is part of it.” That way, Ryan achieves what he wanted anyway . . . by giving Trump the credit.
This is, of course, a standard negotiating skill: you get further with people when you’re nice. And politicians are skilled at getting along with people. It’s just that Donald Trump is far more susceptible to flattery than most.
The problem is, both sides realize this . . . and the smarter Democrats, rather than whipping up their base by demonizing Trump, will praise him as a way of achieving their own goals. They have a better chance with Trump than they would have with a President who had core principles, and/or who could see through opportunistic flattery.
Take Obama. Trump railed about NATO for months, making our support sound very tenuous and conditional. Then Obama spent an hour and a half with Trump, lavishing attention and insincere compliments on him — and the next thing you know, Obama was telling the world that Trump’s commitment to NATO is unwavering.
The next four years are going to be a sickening display of flattery by politicians seeking the support of Donald Trump. I couldn’t do it myself, which is one of over a thousand reasons I will never be a politician.
But GOP politicians will succeed more often if they can follow the example of Ryan and Putin, and flatter Trump. If they can portray conservative principles as Trump’s own, and any conservative position as something the People asked for in voting for Trump, we may get some good things done.
[Cross-posted at RedState.]
Was discussing term limits with some friends this am (Jim McDermott, D-WA is finally leaving us). One of my friends tossed out the possibility of Trump being able to pass term limit legislation by pledging not to run again in 4 years in exchange for Democrat votes. Would he ever do that though? Would make him a lame duck too soon, but maybe?
Regret (5da42f) — 11/17/2016 @ 10:20 amRegret,
Why would Congress pass term limits?
Cruz Supporter (102c9a) — 11/17/2016 @ 10:28 amDo you realize it would put them all out of a job?
I don’t see any flattery of Trump by Ryan whatsoever. Flattery would involve “I spoke with
OzTrump and he encouraged X, so I am proceeding…”. What I see is Ryan laying down a marker with a bit of “drain the swamp” justification which can be interpreted as the listener wishes. Given Trump’s proclivity to take any position on any matter, dependent solely upon wind direction and velocity, Ryan has a plethora of Trump material from which to choose the quote which closest fits Ryan’s objective.Ryan is cracking the whip with an eye toward preventing the type of incumbent rot in the class of ’10 which Hastert ignored in the class of ’94. The ’06 House results for the GOP were due in large part to incumbent rot and Ryan would obviously like to avoid a replay.
Rick Ballard (bca473) — 11/17/2016 @ 10:44 amPrediction: if Trump runs for re-election in 2020 it will be as a Democrat. You heard it here first.
dawadu (462336) — 11/17/2016 @ 10:44 amCS, the # opposing or supporting will correspond to the length of the permitted term – 3 terms in the Senate and 9 terms for the house, while still 2 long for many, would probably win, although 2S/6H would be the goal (too short would not sit well with congressmen seeking to ensure a low-volatility remapping process, especially with Rs controlling most state legislatures).
On the other hand, regret, if he limits himself to 1 term and not facing an election, I do not know whether that emboldens him to support controversial but needed legislation or to sort of kick the can, even reverse himself even more since he will not face the voters in 2020.
urbanleftbehind (5eecdb) — 11/17/2016 @ 10:45 amPatterico you are on to something. ChuckShu is already saying that there are some things that the D’s hope to work with Trump on in the future and that no doubt will split the R’s.
“…Trump called Schumer, who congratulated his fellow New Yorker on his improbable victory.
‘It is time for the country to come together and heal the bitter wounds from the campaign,’ Schumer said in a statement.”
“But Schumer has championed the idea of infrastructure spending tied to a corporate tax overhaul and has said he wants to rethink U.S. trade policies — in particular getting much tougher with China.” Bloomberg
I hate Schumer, but dumb he is not.
Ipso Fatso (7e1c8e) — 11/17/2016 @ 10:45 am…or he could “install” Kushner. But I think he might delegate first S-I-L out to NY for 2018 (take out Cuomo or Hillebrand) or take out DiBlasio in 2017 (although Id much rather see Daniel Donovan run for Mayor).
urbanleftbehind (5eecdb) — 11/17/2016 @ 10:48 amurbanleftbehind,
What’s the motivation for members of Congress voting to restrict the number of years they can serve?
Cruz Supporter (102c9a) — 11/17/2016 @ 10:48 amHow’s that working out for Chris Christie?
JP (f1742c) — 11/17/2016 @ 10:54 amSchumer has a rather large defense problem, given the collapse of the Blue Maginot Line and the location of so many Democrat seats in what can most charitably described as “no man’s land” in ’18. We’re going to be hearing a lot of “nice doggie” out of Schumer while he searches for a bigger stick to replace his twig.
Rick Ballard (bca473) — 11/17/2016 @ 11:00 amConservatives are going to learn the hard way.
Again.
DCSCA (797bc0) — 11/17/2016 @ 11:08 amAt a moment when Trump’s influence is great, rocking the boat is not in the Speaker’s self-interest. Ryan is covering his backside.
The lunacy of the Trump election riots is that our new leader is nothing like the alt-right/extremist caricature they are protesting against. This is something the senior senator from New York knows as well as anyone. Of course he’ll be able to work with Trump and he won’t need flattery to do it. To the extent Trump has political beliefs, they are moderate to liberal ones; there’s plenty of common ground.
One has to hope that the Trump kids and the conservative advisers Trump has chosen will keep him on the conservative path, more often than not. But who knows about that.
ThOR (c9324e) — 11/17/2016 @ 11:14 amThere is no limit to what a man can do or where he can go if he does not mind who gets the credit.
–Ronald Reagan
It is amazing what you can accomplish if you do not care who gets the credit.
–Harry Truman
Kevin M (25bbee) — 11/17/2016 @ 11:24 am==Obama spent an hour and a half with Trump, lavishing attention and insincere compliments on him — and the next thing you know, Obama was telling the world that Trump’s commitment to NATO is unwavering.==
After a private meeting Obama’s telling the world what Trump’s commitment to Nato is, and that is proof that Trump has changed his mind about everything NATO related? This is sufficient proof for you? Oh good grief.
elissa (ead691) — 11/17/2016 @ 11:25 amAt a moment when Trump’s influence is great, rocking the boat is not in the Speaker’s self-interest. Ryan is covering his backside.
No. Ryan has some policy goals in mind and will get some of them into law now. But he has to carry water for Trump as well.
Kevin M (25bbee) — 11/17/2016 @ 11:26 amRonald Reagan said “There’s no limit to what you can accomplish if you don’t care who gets the credit.”
This is a perfect example of that win-win philosophy. Ryan gets what he wants (no earmarks) and Trump gets what he wants (the credit).
And as far as term limits, it ought to be simple to enact a law imposing term limits on all seats in Congress that change hands beginning with the first election after the law is signed. All any sitting Critter need do is continue winning. Once they retire or expire, their seat becomes subject to the law from that point on.
Paul Krendler (fcbef1) — 11/17/2016 @ 11:38 amPaul Krendler, why would members of Congress be motivated to restrict the number of terms they can serve?
Cruz Supporter (102c9a) — 11/17/2016 @ 11:42 amCut the perks and you take away the incentive pols and their permanent staff have to stay. Getting the swamp creatures to cut their lifetime pensions and loads of free taxpayer provided stuff is easier said than done.
crazy (d3b449) — 11/17/2016 @ 12:00 pm#9 — Christie put Jared Kushner’s father in jail for tax fraud. Christie was always living on borrowed time.
shipwreckedcrew (56b591) — 11/17/2016 @ 12:48 pmPatterico posts a tune to whistle past the graveyard.
Pragmatists Trump ideologues.
DCSCA (797bc0) — 11/17/2016 @ 1:00 pmThis ignores the fact that Ryan was running a shadow PAC for the better part of a year.
narciso (d1f714) — 11/17/2016 @ 1:38 pmRonald Reagan said “There’s no limit to what you can accomplish if you don’t care who gets the credit.”
Reagan said this several different ways, and had one version of it on his desk, but it was probably Truman who said it first.
Kevin M (25bbee) — 11/17/2016 @ 1:47 pmStay put was one of my areas of concern re trump, the other huckabee might on the way to tel Aviva.
narciso (d1f714) — 11/17/2016 @ 1:48 pmDSPCA–
Trump won. He doesn’t need you guys any more. Watch and learn.
Kevin M (25bbee) — 11/17/2016 @ 1:48 pmDo AI no provyi, the preemptive slander campaign against session’s nomination for atty general is more interesting, and distressing.
narciso (d1f714) — 11/17/2016 @ 2:00 pm25. Better the old “anti-” then the young “anti-“, he’s actually quite clever to laserlight focus on jobs/American worker and doesnt have the stench of Samuel Huntington on him.
urbanleftbehind (5eecdb) — 11/17/2016 @ 2:04 pmI said before Fox News deigned to affirm Trump’s win in PA that Ryan and Mcconnell would work him. No surprise to see Ryan use carrots and not sticks to do it.
With so many bills advancing in the near future, the urgency of fighting over each piece of legislation which might actually pass Congress largely goes away. Bi-partisanship is much more likely since not every moving bill is the last helo on the roof of the embassy.
Ed from SFV (3400a5) — 11/17/2016 @ 2:28 pmAnyways. the reason I brought quigley up, is he said trump’s refusal to acknowledge the skydragons will cost billions of lives
narciso (d1f714) — 11/17/2016 @ 2:33 pmurbanleftbehind,
What’s the motivation for members of Congress to restrict the number of terms they can serve?
Cruz Supporter (102c9a) — 11/17/2016 @ 2:43 pmQuigleys a damn fool. CS, yes I realize that, but would you say on average that an average R is less likely to need the money and the perks than the average Dem? Thus this might be the Congress to push this through, before the tide switches over. One point in your favor might be that if 1 congressmen serves 40 years it’s still 1 guy getting a pension, whereas 5 guys serving 8 year successive spans result in 5 guys getting pensions.
urbanleftbehind (6e1f6f) — 11/17/2016 @ 3:11 pmGood lord… talk about a person predisposed to attributing malevolent intentions and characterizing actions in a war that mirrors a pre-conceived narrative!
Colonel Haiku (b209d4) — 11/17/2016 @ 3:12 pmI’d correct that last bit from war to way, but on second thought…
Colonel Haiku (b209d4) — 11/17/2016 @ 3:14 pm“Christie was always living on borrowed time.”
Dollars to a mountain of donuts if that ain’t the gospel truth.
Colonel Haiku (b209d4) — 11/17/2016 @ 3:17 pm@Kevin M: Trump won. He didn’t need you guys to begin with. You saw. And learned nothing.
DCSCA (797bc0) — 11/17/2016 @ 4:08 pmelissa #14 – thank you for expressing in a delicate way what I was on the brink of expressing with my traditional Scots diplomatic skills …
Personally, I have to suspect that our President-Elect used some of his Trump-fu on Pres’ent Obama, such that Obama was disincentivised from being his usual self-absorbed vindictive self – why else would our current First Occupant be saying anything even *vaguely* nice about Trump ?
Bottom line is that there is a word for people who *believe* what the major media or the Democrats/Progressives say about anything vaguely conservative – and that word is “disappointed”, cuz the major media and Democrats/Progressives *lie* whenever it suits their convenience !
Alastor (2e7f9f) — 11/17/2016 @ 4:11 pm33.“Christie was always living on borrowed time.”
Like Busey. And Meat Loaf.
Like Ryan. And Romney.
DCSCA (797bc0) — 11/17/2016 @ 4:15 pmthe crunchy irony in their coverage about guiliani
https://twitter.com/CounterJihadUS/status/799381576882601985
narciso (d1f714) — 11/17/2016 @ 4:20 pmpervy mitt romney enjoys the brilliance of baby boy paul’s slicked-up abs while being read a bedtime story involving talking vegetables and marsupials
happyfeet (28a91b) — 11/17/2016 @ 5:20 pm#30 urbanleftbehind, you’re telling me why YOU want term limits for Congress. But you’re not telling me why members of Congress would be motivated to vote to enact term limits.
Cruz Supporter (102c9a) — 11/17/2016 @ 5:44 pmActually, Trump doesn’t seem to hold grudges well at all. It’s probably his worst shortcoming and it will end up biting him.
Jcurtis (90590f) — 11/17/2016 @ 5:57 pminteresting way of looking at this,
https://twitter.com/cerenomri/status/798272052343885824
narciso (d1f714) — 11/17/2016 @ 6:08 pmI’m trying to figure out how Donald Trump managed all of the people who ever tried to use flattery on him as a ploy toward undervaluing his real estate… and I’m thinking that if Trump sees this as business, then maybe flattery won’t go so far.
steveg (5508fb) — 11/17/2016 @ 7:18 pm