Patterico's Pontifications

10/30/2016

New National Tracking Poll Suggests the Trump Surge May Be Happening

Filed under: General — Patterico @ 8:30 am

Caleb Howe published a comprehensive summary of recent polls this morning, generally showing tightening in the race between Trump and Clinton. Since then, today’s numbers from the ABC/Washington Post tracker have come out, and show a (very small) further movement towards Trump, with the race tightening from a two-point gap yesterday to a one-point gap today — a statistical tie:

The Post-ABC Tracking Poll continues to find a very tight race, with Clinton at 46 percent and Trump at 45 percent among likely voters in interviews from Tuesday through Friday, followed by Libertarian Gary Johnson at four percent and the Green Party’s Jill Stein at two percent. The result is similar to a 47-45 margin in the previous wave released Saturday, though smaller than found in other surveys this week. When likely voters are asked to choose between Clinton and Trump alone, Clinton stands at 49 percent to Trump’s 46 percent, a margin that is still statistically insignificant.

The tightening of recent days is well shown in this graphic:

wapo-abc-graphic

The tracking poll also gives us one of the first snapshots of voters’ reactions to the FBI re-opening (yes, lefties: re-opening!) the email investigation. Most don’t care, but some do:

A majority of all likely voters say they are unmoved by the FBI’s announcement Friday that it may review additional emails from Clinton’s time as secretary of state. Just over 6 in 10 voters say the news will make no difference in their vote, while just over 3 in 10 say it makes them less likely to support her; 2 percent say they’re more likely to back her as a result.

If you have been looking for a dramatic finish, this poll could be read to suggest that you may just get one.

That lawyerly statement is about as far as I am willing to go, though. I wouldn’t get too excited. Show me evidence that Trump has a chance of winning North Carolina, and then we’ll talk.

[Cross-posted at RedState.]

66 Responses to “New National Tracking Poll Suggests the Trump Surge May Be Happening”

  1. “2 percent say they’re more likely to back her as a result.” Huh??

    David Shawver (806c86)

  2. The terms “stinkypig, “turdlord,” “plum lolly,” and “failamerica” will be here swiftly.

    #DumpsterfireElection2016

    Simon Jester (c63397)

  3. Would you attribute any part of this to backlash from the media’s treatment of Trump’s scandals? If only that by causing people to look at Trump, it also caused people to look closer at their alternative — Hillary?

    nk (dbc370)

  4. When 60% say it won’t affect their vote, I would intuit that number includes Trump voters who were already set in stone about voting against her, as well as staunch illary supporters who would still vote for her even if the FBI finds Jimmy Hoffa’s skeletal remains in her basement.

    If 30% say they’re less likely to vote for her due to the re-opening of the investigation, that could be substantial.
    Let’s hope that a lot of those people reside in PA, Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, et al.

    Cruz Supporter (102c9a)

  5. @ David Shawver, #1:

    Basically, the question is trying to measure elasticity in the electorate. A committed Clinton supporter will answer “No difference” because they were already voting for Hillary Clinton no matter what. But a committed Donald Trump supporter would answer the same way, although obviously for a different reason. So what they’re trying to capture is some idea of how many minds can still be changed, less than two weeks before the election.

    As for that 2% “more likely” result…It’s statistical noise. If a large enough group of people is given a choice between several options, every option will usually be chosen by at least one or two people. Who knows if those people are being honest (in which case their sanity is in doubt), or whether they are just screwing with the pollsters? I think the latter more likely, but either way, the best way to read these results is that if this piece of news matters to you, it means you’re much less likely to vote for Hillary Clinton.

    Demosthenes (09f714)

  6. The polling surge is before the latest Anthony Weiner related e-mail revelation, but after the Clinton Foundation stories from Wikileaks and elsewhere, and the Obamacare premium hikes.

    Trump is very close in Florida, but Hillary seems to have a persistent lead in North Carolina. It may partly be polling method, but it is also a change in the electorate.

    The Clinton campaign also thinks they may have built up an insurmontable lead with early votes in Nevada.

    Forecasters say that to win Trump needs to do more than carry Florida and Ohio, but needs to carry other states Obama carried. He’s going after New Mexico in particular.

    Could it really split down the middle?

    Sammy Finkelman (b4888e)

  7. he’s a splendid victorious, that guy

    happyfeet (28a91b)

  8. “2 percent say they’re more likely to back her as a result.” Huh??

    Unsurprising. There’s a group who think this is just another example of Hillary being picked on by misogynistic men who are terrified of the thought of a woman President. So, this revelation just makes them more convinced, and more likely to support Hillary.

    Chuck Bartowski (211c17)

  9. I think it’s extremely difficult to factor in third party candidates. Both including and not including the names will bias the polls, and alot depends on what names are on the ballot.

    Sammy Finkelman (b4888e)

  10. “There’s a group who think this is just another example of Hillary being picked on by misogynistic men” The Dems at my last nites poker game are all convinced that DJT bought the FBI somehow. I am not sh!tting you.

    gp (0c542c)

  11. Demosthenes nailed it with the very concise word, “elasticity.”
    And Team illary knows it; that’s why they’re in freak-out mode.

    She may still win due to the electoral college map which has favored Democrats in recent years, but at least it now looks like it could be a much closer defeat for Trump.

    Cruz Supporter (102c9a)

  12. Tons of northern Democrats have flooded into Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina in recent years either for jobs or retirement. Florida has a zillion retired northern Democrats who vote in both Florida and their northern home state. They usually split time between the two states, thus they vote in one state at the ballot box, and the other state by absentee ballot.

    Cruz Supporter (102c9a)

  13. “Show me evidence that Trump has a chance of winning North Carolina, and then we’ll talk.”

    OK. There’s arithmetic involved though. The basic equation involves the Democrats not banking enough early votes to assure a Clinton victory. On the contrary, as the charts show, they are running behind 2012 while the GOP is running well ahead and Independents are running very far ahead of 2012. Around 50% of the Independents voted in either the Democrat or the GOP primary with a 55R/45D split. The black early vote is running around 80% of where it was in 2012 and the drop off accounts for the Democrats’ slide.

    If I were forced to bet on the North Carolina outcome today, I’d bet on Trump.

    Rick Ballard (bca473)

  14. My wife was in the nation’s capital last weekend on business.

    She and her committee members went to a restaurant. The owner told them if they were voting for Trump, he would not serve them.

    Now, I don’t care for Trump. I can’t vote for him. But this kind of nonsense is unacceptable.

    The press works very hard to minimize things that HRC does, while letting Trump…well, be Trump.

    But this will not end well.

    Nk has a point: it could be that the constant drumbeat about Trump’s actions makes people look carefully at HRC’s.

    The SMOD2016 can’t arrive quickly enough.

    Simon Jester (c8876d)

  15. If I had been at that restaurant, I would have calmly told the owner I would not dine at a restaurant that asks me how I vote, and I would get the exchange all over social media.

    I have never cared for loyalty oaths.

    Simon Jester (c8876d)

  16. Could it really split down the middle?

    Sammy Finkelman (b4888e) — 10/30/2016 @ 9:07 am

    Always the possibility, however faint Sammy. IIRC, if it did, it would go to the House to be decided. Considering just how contentious this election has been, it would be interesting to see how the Party of Stupid handles this one.

    Bill H (971e5f)

  17. Charlotte Observer POLL announced yesterday shows the race in the margin of error, based on surveys before the FBI re-opened the investigation of Hillary:

    Less than two weeks before the election, North Carolina is a battleground on multiple fronts with tight races for president, governor and U.S. Senate, according to a new Charlotte Observer poll.

    The poll shows Democrats Hillary Clinton and Roy Cooper and Republican Sen. Richard Burr each leading their opponents by two percentage points, within the margin of error.

    Someone needs to hold Trump accountable if he is elected, and now I know who I can and can’t trust to do it objectively.

    DRJ (15874d)

  18. So I’m kind of pumped about this, now that we know who is for sale (Ted, sadly) and who isn’t.

    DRJ (15874d)

  19. President Trump’s gonna be the most accountable one cause of he’s got the good theories of governing

    whereas the diseased criminal pig would just get all gangsta stanky with it (dangerously unaccountable)

    advantage: Mr. Trump

    happyfeet (28a91b)

  20. I have never cared for loyalty oaths.

    Simon Jester (c8876d) — 10/30/2016 @ 9:51 am

    So, did she and he compadres eat there, or did they leave?

    The owner has a right to express his opinion that way. He also has a right to some damage to his bottom line as a result.

    Bill H (971e5f)

  21. the restaurant dork’s no different than those losers what won’t bake cakes for gay people

    tacky and not deserving of the patronage of decent people

    you should reveal the name of the restaurant for to help people make informed eating choices

    happyfeet (28a91b)

  22. Not so much off topic as to the left and a little behind it: I give up trying to get posting privileges at RedState. I’ve tried registering several times, and they won’t even answer me.

    Bill H (971e5f)

  23. “WEINER COOPERATING WITH FBI: A Bret Baier tweet broke the story. Is Weiner using the emails to cop a plea? Seems logical. More here. Baier has two sources. According to the article, Weiner’s cooperation explains why the FBI didn’t need a warrant to access the computer.”

    https://pjmedia.com/instapundit/weiner-cooperating-with-fbi-a-bret-baier-tweet-broke-the-story-is-weiner-using-the-emails-to-cop/

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  24. the restaurant dork’s no different than those losers what won’t bake cakes for gay people

    happyfeet (28a91b) — 10/30/2016 @ 10:14 am

    That is a mis-statement bordering on outright lie, Happy. You know full well what’s happened there.

    Bill H (971e5f)

  25. Bill H (971e5f) — 10/30/2016 @ 9:57 am

    …go to the House to be decided. Considering just how contentious this election has been, it would be interesting to see how the Party of Stupid handles this one.

    If the Democrats had 50 votes in the Senate, (a majority when you include Joe Biden) they would attempt to pick the Vice President in the Senate (where only two choices are available, and there can be no ties) before the president was picked, and then use that as leverage to get House Republicans to install Hillary Clinton as president.

    Now the Republicans could try a filibuster, and the Democrats threaten to overturn the filibuster rule, and it might be overturned for this vote – or maybe not.

    The Democrats would also, or in any case, want states in the House of Representatives to cast their votes by plurality, to minimize deadlocked states, and avoid McMullin getting any votes. They’d be counting on a core of #NeverTrump Republicans.

    Republicans, if they were smart, or not so loyal to Donald Trump, would want a majority of the state’s represenatives to be needed to cast a state’s vote, with abstentions counted in the total. If a pluraity mattered, there’d be a whole lot of strategic voting and vote switching before the total was announced.

    According to the 12th amendment, you need two thirds of the states for a quorum (not important, simce it doesn’t reduce the total number of states needed) and a majority of all states, (26 that is) is needed, but there’s nothing that says how a state’s vote is determined.

    In 1825 there were de factor only 2 candidates to choose from and in 1800 de jure, and in both cases the choice of vice president could not affect anything. In 1801, the one not picked became vice president, and in 1825 it was John C. Calhoun who was not really allied with anyone.

    But before any of this happens, there might be an attempt to sway Republican electors, by Gary Johnson, by Evan McMullin, and by Hillary Clinton, especially if she was ahead in the popular vote. Trump would just be on defense, maybe making a futile pitch for Utah’s electors.

    Sammy Finkelman (b4888e)

  26. no it’s perfectly 100% analogous

    business owners have every right to be turdy buttfaces

    but i don’t have to spend my monies there

    happyfeet (28a91b)

  27. Fascist Clown Face On… Fascist Clown Face Off…

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  28. LAST WEEK, EVEN MAKING SUCH A CLAIM WAS MONSTROUS AND ANTI-DEMOCRATIC. BUT NOW . . . Dems adopt Trump’s ‘rigged’ line after FBI bombshell.

    The FBI’s decision on Friday to revisit its investigation into Hillary Clinton’s handling of classified material sent Democrats and Clinton campaign staffers into a frenzy, leading some to accuse the agency of election tampering and sounding much like Donald Trump as they did so.

    “[FBI Director James] Comey needs to provide full info immediately. Otherwise he has clearly made a partisan intervention,” liberal New York Times columnist Paul Krugman tweeted soon after the bombshell announcement.

    Krugman then added, “If we don’t hear more from Comey, we just have to conclude that he was trying to swing election. And that should be the story.”

    Like Krugman, the chairman of Clinton’s campaign, John Podesta, demanded that Comey “provide the American public more information than is contained in the letter he sent to eight Republican committee chairmen.”

    Yes, all that have-you-no-decency stuff only goes one way.”

    https://pjmedia.com/instapundit/247686/

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  29. Thanks for that Sammy. It’s all conjecture on an election that’s still well over a week away, but yes- quite interesting. I would bet the PoS will fold like a cheap suit faced with your scenario.

    Bill H (971e5f)

  30. If you have ‘faith’ in polls within 30 days of the general as a guide, tally up how much less JR has spent on his campaign versus how much more Maudie has spent on hers to end up more or less in a ‘statistical tie’ nine days out. That should tell you a lot about which one has the keener ‘Chief Executive’ skills.

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  31. “According to Yahoo News, Comey may not have a warrant to look at those emails.”

    — Robbie Mook, smirking response to Chris Wallace

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  32. The so-called “conservatives” have fought harder against Trump than they have against any liberal in my lifetime.

    DN (21cace)

  33. Mook was asked why the Clinton Campaign dishonestly stated – first by Podesta and then by Hillary! Clinton herself – that the Comey letter was only sent to Congressional Republicans, why this lie had become a talking point, Mook responded that if Wallace’s question was if the letter was sent to all of Congress, the answer is “yes”.

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  34. Mr. Trump went to the wrong schools and doesn’t cultivate the correct pretensions

    what’s hilarious is if he were a woman all but the most snowflake pure nevertrumpers would be all up in him like they were that tacky no-account palin chick

    happyfeet (28a91b)

  35. Weinergate!

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  36. “What did he stroke and when was he not stroking it?”

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  37. Trump ain’t rising, Hillary’s falling.

    If I really wanted to destroy people’s confidence in democracy and prepare them for dictatorship, this is the kind of “choice” I’d offer them. It’s a form of terrorism — these terrible things will stop happening if you’d only let US run things!

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  38. “That should tell you a lot about which one has the keener ‘Chief Executive’ skills.”

    Holding a bum fight in a pig sty by the light of a dumpster fire really shouldn’t cost very much.

    Rick Ballard (bca473)

  39. that someone so reviled by failmerica’s pitiful and depraved havrvartrash ruling class is about to become president?

    it’s the most hearteningly wondrous thing what could have ever happened in the whole whirl!

    it makes me want to sing a merry tune!

    happyfeet (28a91b)

  40. ugh failmerica’s pitiful and depraved *harvardtrash* ruling class i mean

    happyfeet (28a91b)

  41. “Trump ain’t rising”

    Yes he is. He has rocketed to 41.6% in the 4-way, eclipsing his previous high of 41.5% on September 25 by a tremendous, almost perceptible, margin.

    Rick Ballard (bca473)

  42. Trump just contributed the other day $10 million to his own campaign, after not having contributed anything in all of October till then.

    Sammy Finkelman (b4888e)

  43. @38. And yet it does.

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  44. I also want to get your Atlas folks to recommend oversamples for our polling before we start in February. By market, regions, etc. I want to get this all compiled into one set of recommendations so we can maximize what we get out of our media polling.

    happyfeet (28a91b)

  45. Still on teh fence…

    http://ace.mu.nu/archives/smoking%20Chimp.jpg

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  46. You #NeverTrumpers are getting a little nervous about now, I’m guessing. The Hammer of Trump is coming down, and you’re gonna get pounded too! In 2017, we’ll have a new victorious, vibrant party and all the spineless cucks who refused to come to the aid of the party will be purged. Hallelujah, indeed!

    PaddyO' (a8d76a)

  47. RCP has the following states as “tossups” (margin < 5%):

    TX, FL, GA, AZ, OH, IA, NC, CO, NV & ME CD1

    If Trump were to win all but CO & NV, he would have 260 electoral votes. CO would put him at 269, which would probably work, but the House would have a shot at him (and this is assuming he takes Utah). Sweeping all the tossups gives him 274. NV doesn't help him without CO.

    Alternatively, he could pick off PA, lose NC and be over by winning NV but not CO.

    So, even with this surge, it's like one of those longshot wild-card playoff things still.

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  48. how does Illinois look?

    i’m so nervous the pig’s gonna rig it

    happyfeet (28a91b)

  49. Kevin @274. All of these projections include giving Utah and Idaho (McMullin’s second best shot) to Trump, right?

    If Utah, say, goes to McMullin instead, anything in these Electoral vote totals between 269 and 275 goes to the House of Representatives, assuming there are no faithless electors. It doesn’t help Hillary win on Election Night though. She still has to get 270.

    If a red state gets thrown to Hillary (not realistic in Utah) that could also throw things off.

    Third party or skip-voting could also throw some light blue states to Trump, and the votes Hillary is losing now are probably going there.

    Alternatively, he could pick off PA, lose NC and be over by winning NV but not CO.

    Sammy Finkelman (b4888e)

  50. Kevin M (25bbee) — 10/30/2016 @ 11:17 am

    So, even with this surge, it’s like one of those longshot wild-card playoff things still. And what then do you call getting it thrown in the House of Representatives?

    If Trump picks off Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania, Nevada, all of Nebraska, including the Congressioal district that includes Omaha, and most of Maine (3 out of 4) but loses North Carolina and Colorado, and loses Utah to McMullin, what happens then?

    There are probably going to be one or two or three surprises in Election Day anyway.

    Sammy Finkelman (b4888e)

  51. 48. happyfeet (28a91b) — 10/30/2016 @ 11:19 am

    how does Illinois look?

    Mark Kirk is said to be in trouble, because in a debate, when Tammy Duckworth said she was a member of teh Daughter s of the American Revolution and her family had been in the military all the way back to the American Revolution, said, yeah, her parents came all the way from Thialand to fight for George Washington. (her mother was born in Thailand, to parents of Chinese extraction, but her father was a Vietnam War veteran)

    She extracted the word “apologize” from Mark Kirk, something anyone connected to Clinton is very happy to get.

    Sammy Finkelman (b4888e)

  52. Mark Kirk is disgusting

    but so is she

    they’re both disgusting

    Illinois.

    happyfeet (28a91b)

  53. happyfeet is correct that they are both disgusting. Mark’s intellectual fire power/filter was sadly but definitely lessened by his stroke, and Tammy is sympathetic as an injured war veteran (which is why she was placed in the contest by her mentor Durbin), but she has never demonstrated that she has an independent thought or brain cell to start out with. One of them will secure 6 years of disgusting.

    elissa (b5f9a8)

  54. You #NeverTrumpers are getting a little nervous about now, I’m guessing. The Hammer of Trump is coming down, and you’re gonna get pounded too! In 2017, we’ll have a new victorious, vibrant party and all the spineless cucks who refused to come to the aid of the party will be purged. Hallelujah, indeed!

    “cuck” = ban. Bye.

    Patterico (115b1f)

  55. However he management of ill veterans was nothing to write home about.

    narciso (d1f714)

  56. In case there is any question about the propriety of banning those who say “cuck” unironically, let’s click on the hyperlink for Paddy O and see what we see. Ah, it’s a Twitter account! And here is the top tweet:

    Yup, that’s a ban I am good with.

    Patterico (115b1f)

  57. If Pennsylvania flips (highly unlikely) then Wisconsin could obviate the loss of Colorado. Johnson (plus Walker and Ryan) are making a very good effort to bar Feingold’s return to DC. Wisconsin is actually easier to flip than Pennsylvania, given the very deep antipathy towards Trump by women in the Philly suburbs.

    If today’s Souls to the Polls efforts don’t bear much fruit, then turnout models are going to be adjusted rather sharply to reflect the obvious decline in probable black turnout. The race will appear to be closing but the antipathy towards Trump on the part of women won’t change a whit.

    Rick Ballard (bca473)

  58. I was thinking ‘teabagger’ as a comparable equally offensive term.

    But there’s nobody who voluntarily ascribes the label ‘cuck’ to themselves.

    I’ve seen old ladies at rallies with teabag hats proudly proclaiming themselves “teabaggers”, un ironically.

    papertiger (c8116c)

  59. Patterico, how’s about anyone who uses the ugly non-word “cuck” is automatically banned?

    Milhouse (40ca7b)

  60. 53/Elissa: The question re Duckworth…is she a eligible to run for President citizen given her parental makeup? Out there thought,but she will probably be pushed for a ticket in 20 (VP) or in 24/28. Might be the only time to short circuit her ascent.

    urbanleftbehind (847a06)

  61. “cuck” = ban. Bye.

    Oh, good.

    Milhouse (40ca7b)

  62. speaking of

    did we know pervy Mitt Romney’s other slicked-up boytoy Evan McMullin is 100% committed to doing the climate change hoax all up in it?

    that makes me uncomfortable

    happyfeet (28a91b)

  63. The question re Duckworth…is she a eligible to run for President citizen given her parental makeup?

    Sigh. Parentage has never been relevant to eligibility. The only plausible question would be based on her birthplace, the same as for Cruz. Like Cruz she was born a US citizen by virtue of a statute rather than the constitution. Does that count as “natural born”? The legal consensus seems to say yes, though that’s not what I was taught as a child, and it’s not consistent with Blackstone’s explanation of the concept.

    Milhouse (40ca7b)

  64. In these polls, Donald Trump is still below Hillary Clinton.

    Sammy Finkelman (b4888e)

  65. “Show me evidence that Trump has a chance of winning North Carolina, and then we’ll talk.”

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/Remington_Research_North_Carolina_October_31_2016.pdf

    Andrew (c35f78)

  66. I heard on WOR radio this morning that if Trump does not win North Carolina, he has to win Pennsylvania. (this is assuming of course, something like the usual breakdown between how states go.) Of course there is the unexpected, like Wisconsin.

    And that brings us to recounts, if it’s close, and maybe getting thrown into the House of Representatives.

    Sammy Finkelman (b4888e)


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