Patterico's Pontifications

7/19/2016

Your Non-Convention News (If Anyone Cares): Bearish on California

Filed under: General — JVW @ 9:03 pm

[guest post by JVW]

[UPDATE: Ah, hang on: I see now that Elias is claiming that there was a net increase of workers making $50,000 per year into California. That is an interesting assertion. Since he’s a newspaper columnist, his format doesn’t require him to provide links to supporting data, so I would be interested in hearing exactly where he found that number. He claims it is in the Beacon Economics report that he references, but I don’t have access to the full report so I would have to take his word for it, which I’m not really willing to do.

But my other point made in the post below stands: according to the Governor’s own numbers, the middle-class workers who come either either remain childless or when they have children they mostly leave the state for more affordable locations. This is not good for the long-term health of the California economy. – JVW]

I guess he’s never been discussed ’round these parts, but we have a columnist in the local Southern California paper The Daily Breeze (part of the Los Angeles News Group) named Tom Elias who has all of the requisite trendy lefty opinions as befits this region. One of his main recurring themes is that things in California are really quite splendid for businesses, proving that a highly-regulated progressive state can succeed and thrive. He was at it again today in a column that attempted to argue that despite what those nasty conservatives say, the wealthy are not leaving California in droves for other states:

For more than a generation, opportunistic California politicians have barraged voters with woeful tales about how the most productive, inventive, wealthy and enterprising Californians are leaving this state in droves to avoid high taxes and excessive government regulation.

These stories, used successfully by the likes of Pete Wilson and Arnold Schwarzenegger while running for governor, and unsuccessfully by failed candidates from Bill Simon to Meg Whitman and Neel Kashkari, tell of rich Californians seeking greener pastures in more laissez faire states like Texas and Idaho.

There’s only one problem with those stories: They don’t match the facts, even though they are often purveyed by folks with a financial stake in the fables, some of them business relocation experts.

As per his wont, Elias is employing an easily-wrecked strawman. In point of fact, California Republicans, especially wealthy ones like Schwarzenegger, Simon, Whitman, and Kashkari, have never claimed that the wealthy are leaving the state. The wealthy are the ones who can withstand the brutal tax and regulation policies demanded by the state’s left-wing hallelujah chorus, and wealthy progressives whose personal fortunes are already secure are largely the ones driving this demented agenda. What Schwarzenegger et al. have correctly pointed out is that California’s dreadful business environment and high cost of living inhibits job creation, especially jobs for the middle class. More on that in a moment.

Elias is such an awful thinker that he very quickly invokes Josef Goebbels to try to discredit any pushback to his puerile arguments:

It’s not just that California has outpaced the rest of America economically for most of the last 20 years. It’s not merely that innovative businesses and venture capital investments here are the largest and most successful in the world.

It’s not only that coastal California real estate, property in the state’s most populous areas, brings more cash than comparable real estate anywhere else in America except Manhattan, but also that there are plenty of buyers around with the cash to pay seemingly outrageous prices.

It’s also that truth matters little anymore, with one of the principles peddled by master Nazi propagandist Josef Goebbels in the 1930s and ’40s proving at least somewhat correct: The more often you repeat and broadcast an untruth, the more people will come to believe it.

Yep, it’s true: the layers and layers of editors that the LA News Group no doubt employs somehow failed to redline Mr. Elias’s obnoxious Nazi reference, thereby setting a new record for fulfilling Godwin’s Law.

And here’s where Elias either tries to get cute, or exposes himself as a numerical illiterate. In arguing that California still attracts plenty of well-educated people seeking jobs, he cites these figures (bolded emphasis is mine):

That especially holds when some numbers appear to back up the untruth. In terms of people leaving California, there is such a number: California had a net population outflow to other states of 625,000 residents between 2007 and 2014. Newborn children and immigrants more than made up for that loss, so don’t expect the state to lose congressional or Electoral College clout after the next Census in 2020.

[. . . ]

[O]f those who left during the latest years for which statistics exist, the vast majority earned less than $30,000 per year. A net total of 469,000 of those leaving possessed no college degree. Given the prevailing levels of rents and home prices in California, it’s easy to see their financial motive in leaving for far lower-priced states like Texas, Nevada, Oregon and Arizona.

But as lower-income residents left there was a net increase of 52,700 residents from other states making more than $50,000 per year who do have at least a bachelor’s degree. The figures come from a Beacon Economics study released this spring.

Let’s put aside the stupid notion that as long as California’s population stays stable we won’t lose any Congressional seats. (Mr. Elias, as the population of the country grows, if the number of residents in California remains flat our Congressional districts will be reassigned to other states which are rapidly growing. It’s unconscionable that you don’t know this.) Let me instead introduce some high-level mathematics to this discussion. Forgive me for getting lost in the weeds, and I completely understand if you can’t follow these complex calculations, but here is what we are looking at, per Elias:

Elias math

Yep, he seriously thinks it’s no big deal that nearly three times (message me if you want to see my advanced calculations there) as many college-educated people left the state than relocated here over that period. [Note, see my updated correction at the top of the post.]

The rest of the column is blather about how there are really good middle-class high-tech jobs in California, with only a token acknowledgement that what is considered middle-class pay no longer supports a family trying to reside in San Francisco, San Jose, Los Angeles, San Diego, or most of the areas where jobs are being created. Entrepreneurs backed by millions in venture capital are providing some jobs in programming and marketing to those working in start-ups, but hardly paying enough to allow these workers to live comfortably in places like Silicon Valley or the Venice/Marina del Rey tech hub. I fired off a letter to the editor pointing out that Elias also ignores the demographic data from Governor Brown’s 2015-16 state budget which clearly shows that California’s population is skewing heavily towards retired senior citizens and that the number of school-aged kids (ages 4 to 17) is expected to grow at an anemic .3% (yes, that’s three-tenths of one percent) between 2014-2019 while the number of college-aged Californians (ages 18 to 24) is expected to decline by 4.5%. California’s major cities are becoming overwhelming elderly, single, and childless, and that is going to cause a loss of middle-class jobs in education, hospitality, recreation, and other key parts of the economy, just as the cities and state find themselves on the hook for greater and greater healthcare and pension costs borne by the already-overextended taxpayer. This is not going to be pretty, and shame on hacks like Elias for trying to convince us otherwise.

– JVW

I’m Reasonably Sure That Flinging Your Pee At Someone Is Not The Same As Presenting A Persuasive Argument

Filed under: General — Dana @ 6:40 pm

[guest post by Dana]

From downtown Cleveland today, where clearly some protest groups are worse than others:

Activists from Black Lives Matter, Westboro Baptist Church and the KKK were in the square and, at one time, were said to be throwing urine at each other.

You know urine trouble when pee-flinging becomes your desperate go-to move because your group isn’t getting the respect you think you deserve. I can’t think of any three groups more deserving of each other.

And there were other protesters:

The smaller groups Tuesday included a Tamir Rice group, a man carrying an AR-15, a man with a sign saying “Jesus Vapes,” a woman doing yoga with a pro-police and anti-bullying sign and another person asking folks to tell their best Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump joke. The West Ohio Minutemen are there, too, they call themselves a constitutional militia group.

Thankfully no injuries or arrests.

Stay classy, America.

–Dana

It’s Trump

Filed under: General — Patterico @ 5:40 pm

Everyone who had pie-in-the-sky dreams of a delegate revolt, give them up. It’s Donald Trump’s Republican party now.

UPDATE: Via Dana comes this. It’s about how I feel, to the extent that I can be bothered to care.

Facepalm.

Roger Ailes Is Reportedly Out (UPDATED)

Filed under: General — Dana @ 2:23 pm

[guest post by Dana]

No need to worry about him ending up in the bread line:

Fox News confirmed to The Daily Beast that Mr. Ailes was out as CEO, following an exclusive report from the Drudge Report.

Drudge reported that Mr. Ailes would receive at least a $40 million buyout from the network.

The news comes hours after a New York Magazine report that Fox News host Megyn Kelly accused the 76-year-old executive of making unwanted sexual advances toward her about 10 years ago when she was a Fox correspondent.

It is being reported that Kelly “described her harassment by Ailes in detail,” which might explain why he’s being shown out the door so quickly.

It was July 6 when Gretchen Carlson got the ball rolling and filed her sexual harassment lawsuit against Ailes.

–Dana

UPDATE: Howard Kurtz of Fox News is reporting that that Ailes remains on the job:

In a statement, 21st Century Fox said: “Roger is at work. The review is ongoing. And the only agreement that is in place is his existing employment agreement.”

The New York Times reported late Tuesday that Ailes and 21st Century Fox, now managed on a daily basis by Rupert Murdoch’s sons, James and Lachlan Murdoch, “are in the advanced stages of discussions that would lead to the departure of Mr. Ailes as chairman of Fox News.” While it is impossible to predict the outcome of negotiations, I can confirm that such discussions are under way.

Ailes also denies Megyn Kelly’s claims that he sexually harassed her.

Melania Speechwriter Rickrolls GOP Convention

Filed under: General — Patterico @ 7:35 am

Trump’s never gonna give you up. He’s never gonna let you down.

It’s funny, but there are a couple of serious issues that this reveals.

First: whoever wrote that speech is a mole. The insertion of the Michelle Obama plagiarism was no mistake. The speechwriter is trying to embarrass the Trumps. And they don’t mind making it perfectly obvious.

Second: it reveals just how pathetic the Trump campaign’s denials of the obvious plagiarism really are. Here’s the official statement:

Screen Shot 2016-07-19 at 7.28.43 AM

Here’s Chris Christie:

New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, a former prosecutor, brushed off the controversy surrounding Melania Trump’s convention speech, saying he wouldn’t be able to make the case for plagiarism, “not when 93 percent of the speech is completely different.”

Here’s Paul Manafort:

“This is once again an example of when a woman threatens Hillary Clinton, how she seeks out to demean her and take her down,” Manafort asserted on CNN.

There’s no cribbing of Michelle Obama’s speech. These were common words and values, that she cares about her family, things like that,” Manafort said, according to the Wall Street Journal. “I mean, she was speaking in front of 35 million people last night. She knew that. To think that she would be cribbing Michelle Obama’s words is crazy.

It’s gaslighting, of course, because the speechwriter blatantly did crib Michelle Obama’s words, in much the same manner that a not-so-bright third grader might crib from Wikipedia:

It’s good to know that when they have an active mole inside their campaign, their reflexive desire to deny any and all wrongdoing will compel them to go into Baghdad Bob mode rather than seek out the mole.

Maybe it is part of a master plan. After all, nobody is talking about yesterday’s banana-republic style disregard for the rules today, are they?

UPDATE: It’s being reported that Matt Scully wrote the first draft of the speech. I know Matt Scully. He is a good guy and would not be involved in shenanigans of any sort. He wrote Sarah Palin’s 2008 convention speech, which was fantastic.


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