Patterico's Pontifications

6/23/2016

Polls Closed in UK; Awaiting Brexit Results

Filed under: General — JVW @ 6:16 pm



[guest post by JVW]

UPDATE: You can follow the results here. Thanks to narciso and kishnevi for the link.

UPDATE II: Rick Ballard provides a link to The Telegraph’s tabulation of the results. Another good site to check.

UPDATE BY PATTERICO: The BBC has called it for “leave.”

It’s well after midnight in the United Kingdom where voters yesterday went to the polls to decide whether subjects of Her Royal Majesty will remain a part of the European Union. Polls, which in recent weeks had shown the pro-Brexit side slightly leading have as of late tightened and now seem to be favoring the Remain side.

To follow the results, you can check out Lindsay Lohan’s Twitter feed. Seriously: Linsday Lohan’s Twitter feed. Here’s a taste:

This is a good excuse to show this outstanding brief for leaving the EU by that masterful speaker, Daniel Hannan. It’s their language — we’re just borrowing it — but why are they such better public speakers than any of our politicians over on this side of the Atlantic Ocean?

– JVW

115 Responses to “Polls Closed in UK; Awaiting Brexit Results”

  1. it’s she on minute 15:02,

    narciso (732bc0)

  2. According to this investing site, the results are not likely to be announced until late tonight Pacific Time — breakfast time in the U.K.

    JVW (eabb2a)

  3. Leave or Stay the smart money says it’s a damn good excuse for prize breeding sow Kate Middleton to get knocked up

    happyfeet (28a91b)

  4. Who is Lindsay Lohan? I forgot. Did she play twins on a sitcom in the ’80s?

    nk (dbc370)

  5. JVW, if I were you, I would delete happyfeet’s comment. Just saying.

    nk (dbc370)

  6. you are a creepy penguin, indeed, in the olden days you would be smited for your insolence,

    narciso (732bc0)

  7. yes yes one must not speak ill of princess stinky pig

    especially not when she’s with child (thursday)

    happyfeet (28a91b)

  8. Happyfeet, dude. No.

    SPQR (a3a747)

  9. For ease of reference, the link posted by narciso in the other thread
    http://www.the-american-interest.com/2016/06/23/live-blogging-the-brexit/

    Most recent uodate was about 15 minutes ago (9:30 PM EDT)

    kishnevi (c2a547)

  10. I mean you can snorfle, at lindsay if needs must, at the mariannas depth of inanity,

    narciso (732bc0)

  11. JVW, if I were you, I would delete happyfeet’s comment. Just saying.

    For the record, I find that comment to be beneath happyfeet, but it’s staying up. Sometimes you just have to let people walk their own plank.

    JVW (eabb2a)

  12. nk, Lindsay Lohan is the Linda Blair of Generation Y. Does that help?

    JVW (eabb2a)

  13. thank you Mr. JVW i feel very strongly about this

    royalty

    such a noxious idea

    almost as noxious as Remain

    happyfeet (28a91b)

  14. UPDATE: You can follow the results here. Thanks to narciso and kishnevi for the link.

    JVW (eabb2a)

  15. Credit should go solely to narciso.

    kishnevi (c2a547)

  16. thanks and I gave credit to where I found it,

    narciso (732bc0)

  17. Alternatively, the Telegraph is providing better cumulative results with fast updating. With 22% counted, it’s a dead heat.

    Rick Ballard (534b65)

  18. Speaking of bubble-headed entertainment figures, here is a link to a YouTube video where Hannan debates the comedian/actor Eddie Izzard. It’s pretty sad. I know people who are huge Eddie Izzard fans, and I thought he was pretty good as Charlie Chaplin in that movie about William Randolph Hearst, but in this debate the best he can do is say, “I like performing in Paris, so we should remain in the EU.” I guess it’s not just here in the U.S. that there’s a predilection for believing entertainment figures are somehow deep thinkers in the realm of policy. Izzard absolutely embarrasses himself, but I doubt that he has the self-awareness to understand it.

    JVW (eabb2a)

  19. Seventy-five years later, the British are now voting whether to be governed by a German Chancellor?

    nk (dbc370)

  20. That was a wonderful speech! Thanks for linking the video, JVW.

    felipe (6bb3ce)

  21. i thought his marathons were inspirational and I loved The Riches very very much

    happyfeet (28a91b)

  22. when you put it that way, yes, but that wasn’t the way they wrapped up the spring surprise,

    narciso (732bc0)

  23. UPDATE II: Rick Ballard provides a link to The Telegraph’s tabulation of the results. Another good site to check. Thanks Rick.

    JVW (eabb2a)

  24. Twins in a movie in the 90’s
    My daughter could have been a double, if they were the same age.

    MD in Philly (f9371b)

  25. The Parent Trap. I knew I remembered something! Seriously, I had to Wiki her.

    nk (dbc370)

  26. JPM is projecting a Leave Win. Polisci wonks at East Anglia University are also modeling a Leave win based on the equivalent of key precincts in the UK.

    Rick Ballard (534b65)

  27. The Telegraph’s site says that the deadline for reporting results is 7:00 am, which is 11:00 pm tonight in Pacific Time. We may know for sure by the time we go to bed.

    JVW (eabb2a)

  28. What would Conservative, Independent-minded firebrand Maggie Thatcher think of people who want to be independent-minded? Is that what that blame fool drug-addled klepto asked?

    John Hitchcock (e8cb8b)

  29. Poor Lindsay. She must have been thinking of the Margaret Thatcher who took her marching orders from Kohl and Mitterand.

    JVW (eabb2a)

  30. yes, that’s the size of it, john, on the one hand, one does give her points for trying to get involved, otoh, she is so far out of her depth, it’s almost not funny,

    narciso (732bc0)

  31. CSPAN airing ITV coverage live from London. Just projected based on trends Britain has 75% chance of leaving EU. Buy gold, suckers!

    DCSCA (a343d5)

  32. It’s not like she’s hurting anyone.

    31.9% Reporting
    Votes

    49.7%
    4,375,320 for stay

    50.3%
    4,436,451 for go

    papertiger (c2d6da)

  33. Both Liverpool and Newcastle have voted to Remain, but the margin was much smaller than Remain advocates had hoped. Newcastle had been expected to vote Remain by about a 66% portion, but instead the Remain side squeaked out a thin margin of 50.7%

    JVW (eabb2a)

  34. The University of East Anglia (if that name sounds familiar, it is the home of the leading Enviro-thugs of the UK, partners to the execrable Prof. Michael Mann of Penn State) now says there is zero chance that Remain will win the election, and they are forecasting Leave to come in at about 52.9% of the vote.

    JVW (eabb2a)

  35. I’m having a little trouble with the idea of a Prime Minister of the United Kingdom named Boris. The Johnson part is okay but I wonder what his parents were thinking about when they picked Boris.

    Rick Ballard (534b65)

  36. his first name is actually alexander, he has french swiss and circassian (turkish)roots,

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boris_Johnson

    narciso (732bc0)

  37. Perhaps Johnson’s parents were fans of the great English actor, Boris Karloff.

    JVW (eabb2a)

  38. he was born in the Us, his great grandmother was american

    narciso (732bc0)

  39. Perhaps Johnson’s parents were fans of “Rocky & Bullwinkle.”

    Cruz Supporter (102c9a)

  40. OK, I can understand Al Johnson from the US picking Boris as a nom de politique for the UK.

    Rick Ballard (534b65)

  41. Why don’t you stay? – by Kenny Rogers and Dolly Parton (YouTube)

    papertiger (c2d6da)

  42. Brexit at 51.86 or so with 195 of 300 regions counted. Hopefully they don’t do what they did In Chicago for the Harold Washington mayoral contests (not take rallies from the south and west sides until later).

    urbanleftbehind (847a06)

  43. Just you wait, Henry Higgins, just you wait…Parliament will absolutely refuse to adopt the necessary laws to exit the EU based on this result. Ain’t. Gonna. Happen.

    They’ll let the economic downside of uncertainty scare the folks, and then will demand another vote.

    Ed from SFV (3400a5)

  44. Tallies. Like the Pogues once said, let English men fight English wars.

    urbanleftbehind (847a06)

  45. All these large American companies like JP Morgan were urging a vote for Remain, saying there would be layoffs in their British operations. The US stock market was up strongly today in anticipation that Remain would prevail. Looks like it’ll be a down day tomorrow.

    Gerald A (76f251)

  46. what people forget how to ship and make things, that seems ridiculous,

    narciso (732bc0)

  47. Elizabeth Hurley was a supporter of Brexit!

    https://twitter.com/ElizabethHurley/status/745605008012546048

    JVW (eabb2a)

  48. Looks like a win for leave, so now we get to find out if Britain will try to leave the EU. The problem with the referendum is that it doesn’t actually do anything, the government can simply ignore it or play some game to stay in the EU anyway. And then if the government tries to get Britain out of the EU (something I only give about a 35% chance of happening within 4 years), the EU can simply not let Britain leave.

    max (41ee8e)

  49. Why does Lindsay Lohan have such an intense passion for this issue?
    I suppose the answer is that she’s trying to re-build her career, and she wants to curry favor with the liberals in Hollywood who make casting decisions. “Hey, look at Lindsay, she’s a lefty, just like us! So let’s cast her in the remake of ‘Gone With the Wind‘!” (LOL)

    Cruz Supporter (102c9a)

  50. S&P 500 futures tumbled more than 3% as of 11:10 a.m. ET, the 10-year Treasury yield dived to multi-year lows and global markets up-ended.

    http://www.investors.com/news/investing-action-plan-for-friday-finish-line-rig-count-durables/?ven=YahooCP&src=AURLLED&ven=yahoo

    Ridiculous over reaction IMO.

    Gerald A (76f251)

  51. well even lemmings are embarassed, don’t look at us,

    narciso (732bc0)

  52. the EU can simply not let Britain leave.

    ? How can it prevent it?

    nk (dbc370)

  53. Looks like Leave it (Yes-YouTube), but within the fraud margin.

    papertiger (c2d6da)

  54. Sky News is calling it for … LEAVE!

    Cruz Supporter (102c9a)

  55. The Scots have to be kicking themselves. They had a real shot at leaving the UK and blew it. Now, despite wanting to stay in the EU, they are potentially stuck in an independent UK. The worst of all worlds for them. Maybe this will be the final impetus for them to depart the UK.

    Ed from SFV (3400a5)

  56. And there it is…BBC reports from Brussels that Article 50 will be invoked. Two-years of negotiation required before any nation exits.

    Ed from SFV (3400a5)

  57. Haha. Scotland voted 62-38 to Remain.

    Ed from SFV (3400a5)

  58. Lindsay probably still knows that a pound is less than half a kilo of cocaine though

    steveg (fed1c9)

  59. Scotland is more communist than DiBlasio

    steveg (fed1c9)

  60. It’s their language — we’re just borrowing it — but why are they such better public speakers than any of our politicians over on this side of the Atlantic Ocean?

    Minor quibble, JVW: we aren’t borrowing the English language. The British gifted it to us. That we don’t have speakers who can use it as well as Hannan is not their fault.

    Bill H (971e5f)

  61. The most important part of speech is the audience. You have to speak to them at their level of intelligence and education.

    Yes, that’s exactly what I mean.

    nk (dbc370)

  62. It’s curious how circumspect the UK media is about announcing the results of this vote. They seem to largely agree that Brexit has won the day, but unlike their American counterparts they are unwilling to definitively announce it. The Times of London is saying well, yeah, it really looks like the projections lead us to believe that in the end the Leave side will have more votes, and the BBC is saying that their forecasts of the vote suggest that the Leave side will emerge victorious, but no one has really come out and said “Brexit Wins” the way Fox News or the Washington Post would. I wonder if that’s partly surprise at the result and partly anger at the result.

    JVW (eabb2a)

  63. You’ve just voted to leave. Now what?

    Next step is pull the anchor, crack loose of the tunnel, install a fan boat motor in the stub, then plot a course for the Azores.

    papertiger (c2d6da)

  64. not a surprise, the times and the guardian are rather firmly for remain, the telegraph and the mail, were more leave orriented, the bbc feels like bond after the first round in casino royale,

    narciso (732bc0)

  65. the spot price of gold pins down the moment.

    papertiger (c2d6da)

  66. Making Great Britain Great Again!

    Cruz Supporter (102c9a)

  67. the bbc feels like bond after the first round in casino royale,

    Although interestingly enough, I heard someone from the pro-Brexit side — Hannan or Nigel Farrage, maybe — laud the BBC for providing what he said was mostly fair coverage of the debate and not trying to put a thumb on the scales for Remain.

    JVW (eabb2a)

  68. Ms. Lohan,
    If you are reading,
    if you really want to know what Prime Minister Thatcher would have thought,
    look up her granddaughter and ask her,
    seriously.

    MD in Philly (f9371b)

  69. true, they were able to keep a stiff upper lip, but there will be many pints consumed in the next 24-48 hours,

    narciso (732bc0)

  70. Let the British be British again.

    Rodney King's Spirit (e2dd8e)

  71. If GB votes Leave, what is the most likely country next to make the move? Italy?

    The Gentle Grizzly (11fea2)

  72. you get a flavor what I mean here,

    https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

    narciso (732bc0)

  73. In between chasing kids off my lawn, I checked Lindsey Lohan’s Twitter Tweets. (If you Twitter Tweets out loud when standing at someone’s front door, you’ll perhaps get a nice piece of candy or an apple with a razor blade in it.) Here’s my favorite:

    Workplace fatalities in the UK have reduced by half since European safety directives were introduced in 1996.

    Is that right? Seriously? I wonder how much they have been reduced since the Brits won the Battle of Britain in 1940? I’m betting it’s even more than half, in which case we ought to credit who, Winston Churchill?

    “… than they would have otherwise, if the UK hadn’t been in the EC since 1996?” Now, that is not a question that occurred to the star of “Mean Girls” and “Scary Movie 5,” but it occurs to me, and would to anyone who’s not a tool and a fool.

    Beldar (fa637a)

  74. Next on Lindsay Lohan’s docket…scolding Latvia for leaving the Soviet Union!

    Cruz Supporter (102c9a)

  75. you would think they would be drinking more, or they closed the tab down,

    http://blogs.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/timblair/index.php/dailytelegraph/comments/fr1/

    narciso (732bc0)

  76. They just had a BBC girl on Charlie Rose, she must have said the word “remain” nine times.

    It was like the meow skit from Super Troopers.

    papertiger (c2d6da)

  77. I am not exactly sure why, but the Brexit result seems as if it is a good thing. Maybe Lindsey Lohan’s imitation of Madonna is influencing me.

    Ag80 (eb6ffa)

  78. well I would go that far, the realization that ‘we don’t need no thought control, probably has set,

    narciso (732bc0)

  79. The UK has answered The Clash’s question, “Should I Stay or Should I Go?”

    Cruz Supporter (102c9a)

  80. “Do meow how fast you were going?” -Super Trooper clip (YouTube)

    papertiger (c2d6da)

  81. The media newscasters are in fake panic. Of course the markets are roiling; if they still are a week from now I guess we could worry.

    I love it that Obama threatened them and they said “so what.”

    Patricia (5fc097)

  82. If GB votes Leave, what is the most likely country next to make the move? Italy?

    Well, France has a presidential election next year and if Marine Le Pen and her National Front party continue to poll well then the center-right UPM party of Sarkozy and Fillion might find that they have to promise the voters a referendum in their campaign platform. That’s the same trap that caught up David Cameron.

    JVW (eabb2a)

  83. ironically, this is precisely what they’ve gotten since the time the film came out,

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t4SKL7f9n58

    narciso (732bc0)

  84. And the funny thing too, narciso, is that Roger Waters is such an obnoxious lefty that he no doubt was a big supporter of the Remain side.

    But Roger Daltry of The Who was a staunch Brexit champion.

    JVW (eabb2a)

  85. that’s good for daltrey, artists as a whole, seem to be weak in the practical application of liberty, take joss whedon, who doesn’t seem to understand the message of firefly, the avengers or heck even cabin in the woods,

    narciso (732bc0)

  86. in all three cases, a unaccountable body, the alliance, the world peace counsel, the unnamed ones, are manipulating human behavior with little concern over the people, who just want to be free, but how did whedon act, he painted romney as the provoker of a zombie apocalypse,

    narciso (732bc0)

  87. lindsay never understood this,

    https://twitter.com/BoSnerdley/status/746196697043197953

    narciso (732bc0)

  88. The interesting part will be how long the politicians will pretend to listen to the will of the people as they drag this out before they keep putting new referendums on the ballot to STAY. And keep putting them till they get their desired result without ever actually leaving.

    NJRob (a07d2e)

  89. Another interesting thing will be how Scotland reacts.

    Ag80 (eb6ffa)

  90. Seems like someone tossed an awful lot of tea into the Thames.

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  91. David Cameron is going to have a leadership election pretty soon. Don’t see how the Tories can go forward with him. If they try, they’ll suffer the same fate as the GOP that spurned the Teas.

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  92. Cameron has announced that he is stepping down, no later than the party conference in October, and that he will leave it to the new PM to invoke Article 50.

    aphrael (3f0569)

  93. Ding Ding. Cameron’s prime directive is to delay the negotiating period. Add two years to whatever point Article 50 is invoked. In the meantime, some very ugly economic roiling will make everyone regret this brexit result.

    Of course, the elites on both sides will poison the eventual exit charter negotiations to where no sane people would adopt them.

    The UK is going nowhere for a very, very, long time. If ever.

    Ed from SFV (3400a5)

  94. President Sh1tfinger and his cronies in Europe needed something to blame the collapse of the asset bubble on. Now they’ve got it.

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  95. Of course, the elites on both sides will poison the eventual exit charter negotiations to where no sane people would adopt them.

    Yeah, but in the meantime this has to put a huge crimp in the EU bureaucrats’ plans for future expansion. It was reported that after this vote (which they naturally thought would go for the Remain side) that Brussels was going to announce plans for the formation of a European army, and there were several other new regulations that would affect British farmers and manufacturers that were going to be implemented. Now, Brussels must be in a quandary of some sort as to how to proceed. Everyone is sailing into new uncharted waters now that the British have shown that ordinary citizens should have some say in the foreign policy of their nation.

    JVW (eabb2a)

  96. lindsay never understood this,

    https://twitter.com/BoSnerdley/status/746196697043197953

    narciso (732bc0) — 6/23/2016 @ 10:54 pm

    I am stunned, shocked to the very core of my being, to learn there was something Lindsay Lohan didn’t understand.

    She seemed so bright in The Parent Trap.

    Steve57 (ecac13)

  97. Cameron’s prime directive is to delay the negotiating period…

    Ed from SFV (3400a5) — 6/24/2016 @ 12:34 am

    So, there are to be negotiations?

    So, everybody including Obama who were saying that BREXIT would unfailingly result in all sorts of calamities from the end of Game of Thrones to melting of the Antarctic glaciers to the SMOD because nature would take its inevitable course and no human power could prevent what’s coming, were entirely full of sh*t.

    We’ve gone from END OF THE WORLD!!! to, let’s negotiate.

    Instructive.

    Steve57 (ecac13)

  98. Good going subjects. About time. Now help us get rid of Clinton republicans.

    mg (31009b)

  99. Houston, 22 June (Argus) — Traders seek replacement for Yahoo

    Pending changes to the Yahoo Instant Messenger service has commodity traders around the world in search of other tools for sharing daily trading information.

    Yahoo said it will disable its current instant messaging system as of 5 August but will still support a newer, web-based version. The new version does not allow for auditing software to log conversations for compliance purposes and allows users to “unsend” a message, adding to compliance concerns.

    Along with AOL’s free instant messaging service, the existing version of Yahoo Messenger has been the default communication platform to bid, offer and trade physical crude oil, refined products and other commodities around the world since the late 1990s. The free platform also let brokers and the media contact traders to gather important market data.

    who knew?

    i just checked to see if i was running Y messenger anymore

    nope, and I can’t remember when it went away

    i hate google hangovers but i use that and also lync, which is also detestable

    happyfeet (28a91b)

  100. Steve57 (ecac13) — 6/24/2016 @ 1:31 am

    So, there are to be negotiations?

    So, everybody including Obama who were saying that BREXIT would unfailingly result in all sorts of calamities from the end of Game of Thrones to melting of the Antarctic glaciers to the SMOD because nature would take its inevitable course and no human power could prevent what’s coming,

    I think the idea was that Britain would be unfailingly committed to leaving, and would have no negootiating power, and would have to take whatever terms the EU offered, and the EU would want to punish Great Britain in order to deter other countries from leaving.

    Sammy Finkelman (7a22e4)

  101. It would have been much better to have a few other questions on the ballot like?

    1) If LEAVE is approved, shall there be another vote in 2 years before this becomes final?

    2) If REMAIN is approved, shall there be another vote in two years?

    That would have given the United Kingdom a lot more negotiating power to negotiate how it stayed in. David Cameron did some negotiations, but he didn’t change anything much.

    Sammy Finkelman (7a22e4)

  102. what is companies forget to trade, no brussels wants to dictate how and why everything is done, there was an empire before lisbon and maastrict, in fact it in order to acrue markets,

    narciso (732bc0)

  103. I wonder how long it will be before the EURO establishment wakes up to the realization that they should have let the Greeks go. Losing assets and keeping liabilities is never a good idea.

    f1guyus (5a4596)

  104. Lindsay Lohan cares about Brexit because she is engaged to the London-based son of a Russian businessman, and they care about it. As for me, I like Brexit because it opens the door to Texit. Read Trump’s statement and tell me why it wouldn’t apply equally to Texas independence:

    The people of the United Kingdom have exercised the sacred right of all free peoples. They have declared their independence from the European Union and have voted to reassert control over their own politics, borders and economy. A Trump Administration pledges to strengthen our ties with a free and independent Britain, deepening our bonds in commerce, culture and mutual defense. The whole world is more peaceful and stable when our two countries – and our two peoples – are united together, as they will be under a Trump Administration.

    DRJ (15874d)

  105. Yeah, but only the first 2 sentences. I think Trump would be as much the heavy as Clinton with regard to certain issues – unless he’s of the Tuck Fexas NE and southeast mindset (Southerners dont consider Texas a true brother). If anything Texcessionists should be sending their own trade reps to London post haste, and not wait around for Trump to win.

    urbanleftbehind (5eecdb)

  106. “unless he’s” should be “he might also be”

    urbanleftbehind (5eecdb)

  107. the EU can simply not let Britain leave.

    ? How can it prevent it?

    (excluding war)
    Article 50 sets out how nations can leave the EU, they have to announce their intent to leave and reach an agreement with the EU on how to handle the nation leaving, two years after reaching an agreement with the EU the nation can leave. While Britain cannot leave the EU without the agreement, there is no requirement that the EU reach an agreement with Britain Allowing the EU to veto Brexit by simply not reaching an agreement. The EU is very much like the Hotel California in that “you can check out any time you want, but you can never leave”.

    max (41ee8e)

  108. Maybe Merkel wants to be Europe’s Lincoln.

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  109. Not quite, max. My reading states that once the process is started; if the EU and Britain don’t reach an agreement by the end of two years stating how they leave; Britain is just out. So the EU can’t unilaterally suck Britain in. They would have to pass some sort of continuing agreement with someone on the British side who could be punished electorally.

    Ingot (e5bf64)

  110. Ingot (e5bf64) — 6/24/2016 @ 11:16 am

    My reading states that once the process is started; if the EU and Britain don’t reach an agreement by the end of two years stating how they leave; Britain is just out.

    is this under the EU treaty, or British law?

    The thing about just leaving, without negotiating anything, is that it would be chaotic. Suddenly tariffs would have to be imposed, and people from the EU become ineligible to work and to live in Britain and people in Britain ineligible to live and work in the EU, and who knows what other kinds of arrangements would terminate?

    At least there’s not the complication of leaving the Euro.

    Sammy Finkelman (7a22e4)

  111. Ingot:
    Article 50 references Article 218. That Article 218 reference means that the notification can be considered to require official presentation to the EU negotiator to start the two year clock. The EU can take as long as it wants, or simply refuse, to name a negotiator. Note that any dispute about what constitutes notice under Article 50 is resolved by the EU.

    max (41ee8e)


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