Patterico's Pontifications

4/28/2016

The Will to Believe

Filed under: General — Patterico @ 9:16 pm

I had an idea recently. Much as I used to do in collecting examples of the Los Angeles Times‘s errors and bias, I thought I would pore through my archives and categorize all the reasons the Sniveling Coward is a joke of a candidate. I would find every post that discussed his lies, exaggerations, ignorance, and buffoonery, organize them by category, and publish it. I’d do it before that critical Indiana vote — which, by the way, I still think he’s going to win.

Maybe the sites that used to link here, but never do any more, would notice and link me for old times’ sake. If you can change just one vote and all that.

But then I read this bit by Thomas Sowell.

At this late date, there is no point itemizing the many things that demonstrate Trump’s gross inadequacies for being President of the United States. Trump himself has demonstrated those gross inadequacies repeatedly, at least weekly and sometimes daily. Those who do not believe their own eyes and ears are certainly not going to believe any words of mine, or of anyone else.

What William James called “the will to believe” is still as powerful today as it was when he coined the phrase more than a century ago.

It’s hard to argue that Sowell is wrong.

106 Responses to “The Will to Believe”

  1. Sorry man. Dr. Sowell is right.

    JVW (eabb2a)

  2. Ben Shapiro claimed he had a staff member document all the lies that Trump told. He had to stop his staff member at 101 because it was wasting his time.

    Dejectedhead (787359)

  3. Well, today I heard from an acquaintance who has been for Trump since the beginning.
    If I followed what he was saying correctly, watching the conference where Cruz announced that Fiorina would be his pick for VP, he saw someone wearing a shirt that said “I stand with Israel” or something similar.
    My acquaintance commented that if someone supports Israel, that’s a plus in his book; that it’s not exactly a popular stance (IIRC, he used the phrase “takes some guts”); and that he doesn’t have much respect for flip-floppers, and Trump’s been flip-flopping a lot lately (he noted that changing one’s mind before an election isn’t flip-flopping, but he hasn’t changed candidates in a long time).
    So he’s going to be “looking at [Cruz] a lot harder”.

    Ibidem (970323)

  4. It’s not so much a matter of belief, it’s a willingness to take the man at his word. When Trump says he’ll build a wall I expect him to build a wall. When he says he wants to make America great again, I’m all for it. When he says illegal aliens must leave our country I rejoice that we may become a nation of laws again. Do I expect every campaign promise Trump makes will come to pass? No, not in his first term anyway.

    ropelight (db17ed)

  5. So, ropelight, make yourself clear. It’s your intention to take a man at his word when he defends himself against charges of fraud by explicitly stating only a gullible fool would take him at his word. That’s why he settled lawsuits such as the “Trump Resorts” real estate fraud civil action his angry investors brought against him in, among other places, his fraudulent Baja resort.

    Voxsplain to me, ropelight, how that you’re saying passes for remotely intelligent. Trump through his lawyers argued that he shouldn’t be a defendant in Cohen v. Trump as Trump wasn’t a principle in the corporation that defrauded Cohen. The court laughed that out of court because the fact that Trump willingly participated in a multi-million dollar advertising campaign to mislead potential students he was in fact a principle and intimately involved in the corporation that defrauded Cohen et al was the heart of the fraud claim.

    Trump’s next move was to argue that the plaintiffs should have known better than to believe his lies. And I’ve provided the links. I’m sure you haven’t clicked on the links. I’m sure you’ll deny it. I’m sure you’ll shut your eyes and put your hands over your ears and shout, “Neener, neener, I CAN’T HEAR YOU” and drown out the facts. But that doesn’t change the facts.

    And now you want to take this guy at his word. Unless someone strapped me to board and gave me a forcible lobotomy I couldn’t say what you’re saying.

    Steve57 (52b365)

  6. The problem with all of Trump’s positions is that he’s take both sides of them.

    Anti-illegal immigration? Well, 4 years ago Self-Deportation was mean spirited and too harsh according to Trump.

    Anti-Establishment? Well, when he was first taking the lead he was all about getting their support and argued the problem with Cruz was that he couldn’t compromise.

    Hate Obamacare? So does Trump, but he loves the mandate and will have the Government take care of you.

    People hear what they want to hear and they exclude the rest.

    Dejectedhead (614035)

  7. It’s not so much a matter of belief, it’s a willingness to take the man at his word.

    Uhh, ropelight, willingness to take someone at their word especially when the evidence doesn’t support what they’re saying and, indeed, is to the contrary, is the very definition of “belief.”

    I would suggest looking it up, but, well, you’re a Trumpeter.

    Steve57 (52b365)

  8. 6. …Anti-illegal immigration? Well, 4 years ago Self-Deportation was mean spirited and too harsh according to Trump.

    Dejectedhead (614035) — 4/28/2016 @ 11:15 pm

    Yup. One of the more obvious lies Trump told recently was that the RICO/fraud lawsuits should have and would have been dismissed years ago except the judge, Gonzalo Curiel, was biased against the noble Trump. But the hispanic judge hated Trump because he was “strong” on the border.

    Not having been in a coma I looked it up. Yeah, no. When Trump was trying to get these lawsuits dismissed back in the day he was all in for open borders. After Romney lost, Trump was saying that one of the YUUUGE reasons was Romney was “maniacal” on immigration. At least, Trump told Glenn Kessler now of WaPo “politifact” fame, the Democrats had good hearts. But the GOP was mean spirited.

    If, IF, Gonzalo Curiel was some sort of La Raza Hispanic supremacist then Trump was on his side. But he knows nobody is actually going to check on his BS. As for me? I’ve never main-lined black tar heroin or had a severe closed head injury so I’m not brain-damaged enough to buy what Trump is selling. But all is not lost; maybe I’m only one or two sledgehammer blows away from caving in my skull to the point I’ll take Donald Trump at his word.

    Steve57 (52b365)

  9. Patterico, I recommend Eric Hoffer’s “The True Believer” to you again. It’s old but highly relevant to this situation.

    Summary here:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_True_Believer

    I am reminded of my second year in graduate school. My PhD advisor had been selected as a Presidential Young Investigator in the first group. It was a very, very big deal.

    One of my fellow graduate students grated that he had heard that Reagan was cutting the budget for that program.

    I pointed out it was the first year of that program, and he had no evidence for what he was saying. I went on to remark that if Ronald Reagan had given him a hundred bucks, he would be pissed off it wasn’t five hundred.

    His mind was made up. Facts were not important. Narrative ruled.

    Simon Jester (0352f7)

  10. Here’s an excerpt from Philip Rucker’s article in the WaPo, 4/29/16:

    GOP elites are now resigned to Donald Trump as their nominee

    Throughout the Republican Party, from New Hampshire to Florida to California, many leaders, operatives, donors and activists arrived this week at the conclusion they had been hoping to thwart or at least delay: Donald Trump will be their presidential nominee.

    An aura of inevitability is now forming around the controversial mogul. Trump smothered his opponents in six straight primaries in the Northeast and vacuumed up more delegates than even the most generous predictions foresaw. He is gaining high-profile ­endorsements by the day — a legendary Indiana basketball coach Wednesday, two House committee chairmen Thursday. And his ­rivals, Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas and Ohio Gov. John Kasich, are making the kind of rushed tactical moves that signal desperation.

    The party is at a turning point. Republican stalwarts opposed to Trump remain fearful of the damage the unconventional and unruly billionaire might inflict on the party’s down-ballot candidates in November. But many also now see him as the all-but-certain nominee and are exhausted by the prospect of a contested July convention, according to interviews this week with more than a dozen party figures from coast to coast.

    “People are realizing that he’s the likely nominee,” said Tim Pawlenty, a former Minnesota governor and onetime endorser of Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida. “The hysteria has died down, and the range of emotion is from resignation to enthusiasm.”

    ropelight (6b9125)

  11. Yes and no, imo.
    There are many people who have only heard the sound bites, and if given the opportunity to learn more in an unthreatening manner may change their minds.
    But some people will dig in their heels just because they don’t want to admit they are wrong.

    I pointed this oddity out before,
    That people want to protest against the DC establishment because they promise one thing and do something else,
    But then they support someone on the basis of only promises who does not have a track record consistent with his current promises
    But calling those people names usually hasn’t helped much either.

    If one wants to protest the status quo in DC, choose the person they are most challenged by,
    Which is Cruz.

    MD in Philly (f9371b)

  12. But the thing is,
    If Cruz does somehow get elected,
    That is only the beginning,

    I have seen only a little of this so I could be wrong,
    Apparently at one point people were screaming at how all of Brownback’s policies in KA were making things worse…
    Until things started getting better.

    Nothing less than a major reformation in the thinking and spirit of the US is going to do much good.
    I think we have a much better chance of that happening with Cruz at the helm than Trump or any Dem,
    But if the crowd persists in wanting Barabbas,
    Barabbas they will get
    And the consequences thereafter.

    MD in Philly (f9371b)

  13. The will to believe is what all religions depend on, as well as most inquiry, research and exploration. Not to mention marriage. It’s a very positive thing. It can be dangerous in trailer parks when you hear Bubba say, “Here, hold my beer”, and the finger meets the buzzsaw or the match the gasoline.

    nk (dbc370)

  14. The post yesterday about the Trump caller to Rush Limbaugh was the final straw for me. The caller admitted he knew Trump would not do what he promised but he was so angry he didn’t care. To know better but do something because you are angry and hurt? That is nothing more than a temper-tantrum.

    What’s worse (if that’s possible) is that not one Trump supporter in the comments disagreed with Rush’s caller.

    This is where we are as a nation. About a third or more have given up on reason and want the rest of us to pay for them, and another third have given up on reason because they are so angry about their lives and their country. An electorate that gives up on reason is, by definition, stupid.

    DRJ (15874d)

  15. I didn’t hear it that way, DRJ.

    I heard it as, “These people have been giving me 0% for so long, breaking all of their promises, that I have had it with them.”

    Then again, one finds it hard to know when someone is simply expressing their thoughts, or trying to manipulate a narrative.

    MD in Philly (f9371b)

  16. I don’t think he said he didn’t think Trump would do at least some of the things that he promised, but that while he disagreed with Trump 80%, at least Trump would get 20% of something done,
    Which seems better than the status quo.

    I blame Boehner and McConnell and Ryan and Co. for Trump, not Trump voters.

    MD in Philly (f9371b)

  17. What I heard him saying and I’ve been hearing it for a long time from a lot of people including mnay people on this site is: Mommy and daddy are always giving things to everybody except me. I want a new mommy and a new daddy who will give me things too.

    nk (dbc370)

  18. And that’s what I hear all Trumpkins saying.

    nk (dbc370)

  19. I heard it as, “These people have been giving me 0% for so long, breaking all of their promises, that I have had it with them.”

    And so he has a chance to vote for a guy who actually was standing up against most of his party to do what HE, the caller, wanted — and he throws it away.

    And that is this election cycle. Stupid, stupid, stupid.

    Patterico (86c8ed)

  20. Without Trump voters, no Trump. I absolutely place 100% of the blame for Trump on Trump voters.

    Leviticus (efada1)

  21. An electorate that gives up on reason is, by definition, stupid.

    That was etched in stone in 2008 and again in 2012.

    Mark (fb60e8)

  22. So, when personality cults form, who do you fight against? The cultists, or the object of their devotion? It seems unlikely that the cultists can be dissuaded once they become unwilling to consider ANY action on their demigod’s part as a dealbreaker. I don’t know a lot of Trumpaid drinkers, but the ones here seem to revel in their impenetrability. They view it as strength, and in a way it is. Kind of like the Borg.

    And since, in a democracy, an informed public is supposed to weigh issues and opinion to guide the nation — but this is completely short-circuited by cults of personality — one can no longer rely on the democratic process. Once the cult achieves power, it is hard to see how democratic institutions even keep it in check, should the demigod wish otherwise.

    Which leaves 1) the courts; 2) the military (or eventually someone else’s); or 3) individual duty.

    Is there any cogent argument WHY the Trump movement has not become a personality cult?

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  23. MD:

    I heard it as, “These people have been giving me 0% for so long, breaking all of their promises, that I have had it with them.”

    No, he hasn’t “had it” with Republicans. He’s still voting in the Republican primary, so by definition he hasn’t had it with them — unless you define this as blowing it all up by supporting someone who is the opposite of what you say you want.

    DRJ (15874d)

  24. That’s the secret to the art of the hustle, isn’t it?

    crazy (cde091)

  25. No.

    Still waiting for that intelligent, non-bigoted explanation of your support for Trump, Trumpkins.

    Leviticus (efada1)

  26. “No,” re: Kevin M’s question at #22.

    Leviticus (efada1)

  27. And that’s what the Trump people are doing, isn’t it? They are the child who gets mad at the other children and takes their toys so no one can play.

    DRJ (15874d)

  28. Kevin @22. Yes. Trump’s winning margin have been “Operation Chaos” Democrats who have been crossing over to vote for him in the primaries believing that Hillary will mop the floor with him in November. If he is not in jail without bail under indictment for racketeering, interstate fraud, immigration fraud and tax evasion.

    nk (dbc370)

  29. If one assumes that the Dems are bad and the only other player in town are the repubs (lots of people say 3rd parties are useless and work for change in the primary)
    Then what can you do except try to shake things up?

    I don’t know why we keep going over this, P, you seem to think that everybody out there knows Cruz and knows Trump and are choosing Trump and you don’t understand why;
    Most people don’t know Cruz, they have not been exposed to the info
    Many people in our society can’t recognize him if they tripped over him

    Geez, if people could easily be exposed to good info and discern wisely, we’d all be out playing on one of Trump’s golf courses with nothing better to do

    MD in Philly (f9371b)

  30. MD, the Rush caller knows he is supporting someone who he doesn’t agree with. He correctly identifies the issues he cares about and then admits Trump doesn’t stand up for those issues, and not one Trump supporter/commenter on that thread disagreed with the caller. That isn’t ignorance. Thst’s a choice made from anger and emotion, and it’s stupid.
    .

    DRJ (15874d)

  31. Geez, if people could easily be exposed to good info and discern wisely, we’d all be out playing on one of Trump’s golf courses with nothing better to do

    That.

    WTP (aca208)

  32. If everyone could discern wisely, Trump would be broke and caddying at a golf course.

    DRJ (15874d)

  33. Donald Trump is today’s version of Jim Jones. And the end results will be very much the same, only amplified. Yes, I truly believe many of today’s Trumpsters will be suicide statistics in a mere 2 years. But more importantly, the United States itself will have committed suicide.

    It has been said that, like Rome, the United States is a nation that cannot be conquered from without; it will fall from within. I believe that to be true. And with Hillary, Bernie, and Donald, we are seeing that very fall from within happening. If you are a supporter of any of those three, you are the enemy within that is actively toppling the United States.

    John Hitchcock (4b6cdd)

  34. DRJ, when Texas decides to become a Republic again, give me advance warning so I can once again domicile there. I am currently domiciled in Ohio, but have only seen the house 5 times in the last 3 years, the last time being in August. But I need an official residence and a mailbox, so it kinda has to be Ohio for now.

    John Hitchcock (4b6cdd)

  35. That’s a choice made from anger and emotion, and it’s stupid.

    if they’re choosing to support Mr. The Donald and also supporting the continued R majorities in Congress then they’re being rather clever i think, sending the fithy R congresstrash a message what is coherent and inarguable

    a lesson they should’ve learned when the execrable eric cantor was deposed

    a lesson they should’ve learned after the fall of boehner

    but then wiscotrash slutboy paul ryan throws out the sequester and spends spends spends to the glory of the voices in Meghan’s coward daddy’s head?

    time for another lesson

    happyfeet (831175)

  36. DRJ,

    I submit that one needs to look at what is most fundamental, bedrock, in one’s thinking.
    The caller has as his bedrock the idea that the established Republican Party cannot be trusted to do anything they say, even the things that seem most important.
    If he believes that, then all of a sudden 20% is bigger than 0%, especially if that 20% is something important, like “secure the border, stupid”.
    So if that is the rationale, it is logical.

    Now, if the typical Trump supporter had doubts that maybe Trump wasn’t going to do anything about the border or immigration after all…
    then they would probably stay home.

    MD in Philly (f9371b)

  37. Taunting is all the rage in politics and the world. Apparently the Obamas even enlisted one of their military honor guards to help do the taunting.

    DRJ (15874d)

  38. No wonder his supporters love Trump’s taunts.

    DRJ (15874d)

  39. What’s ironic is that Trump supporters would be the first to say Trump is nothing like Obama.

    DRJ (15874d)

  40. I would characterize the Trump phenomena as the willing to suspension of disbelief rather than a will to believe. I was first introduced to this suspension of disbelief idea in a video about acting featuring Tom Selleck, and I take it that it is a foundation of acting. I’m sure that Trump is aware of it.

    The difficulty for Trump is that if he goes “out of character” he will endanger his supporters’ essential willingness to suspend disbelief. I’ve lost interest in most modern entertainment series because they almost willy-nilly change horses in mid-stream, and the good guy is suddenly revealed as a bad guy or vice versa. This may allow them to retire an old character and bring in a new one, or perhaps to change writers, but it betrays the contract with the audience that is implicit in a long running drama. So Trump is locked into the mindless firebrand character until the campaign is over. For his campaign “the play’s the thing!”

    BobStewartatHome (404986)

  41. make that: “… willing to suspension of disbelief ..”

    BobStewartatHome (404986)

  42. Trump is nothing like Obama.

    i don’t think Mr. Trump brings with him an agenda to rape and damage america, to destroy millions of jobs, to hook once-respectable failmericans on food stamps and government pity, to eviscerate our freedoms, and to do genocide on israel

    happyfeet (831175)

  43. #37: DRJ, Obama is still plumbing the depths, isn’t he? This is the same child-man who returned Winston Churchill’s bust as one of his first acts as President. Now he’s dragging the services down the toilet in a doomed attempt to remain relevant in world affairs … in this case pretending to be “goofy barry” to endear himself with the English electorate prior to the upcoming U.K. exit vote. Short form bio: “Community Organizer, state senator (“present”), u. s. senator (not present), presidential candidate, occupant W. H., tyrant, rabble rouser, clown, pensioner. Good riddance.”

    BobStewartatHome (404986)

  44. Really, hf? There is evidence he might do those things, too:

    Trump’s tade policy would damage economy without restoring jobs.

    Trump vs the First Amendment.

    “I’ll be neutral on Israel and Palestine.”

    DRJ (15874d)

  45. the queen used to have more class than this

    at least a little bit slightly more

    poor pee-stanky old queen

    she’s losing it

    happyfeet (831175)

  46. yeah i’m not persuaded DRJ

    Paul Ryan is a big sleazy hooker for obamatrade, and i suspect harvardtrash ted is too

    happyfeet (831175)

  47. In the end, something on this plane of existence will be the determining factor, and humble prayer is the most important factor:
    I Kings 22:19-22, ESV
    I saw the Lord sitting on his throne, and all the host of heaven standing beside him on his right hand and on his left; 20 and the Lord said, ‘Who will entice Ahab, that he may go up and fall at Ramoth-gilead?’ And one said one thing, and another said another. 21 Then a spirit came forward and stood before the Lord, saying, ‘I will entice him.’ 22 And the Lord said to him, ‘By what means?’ And he said, ‘I will go out, and will be a lying spirit in the mouth of all his prophets.’ And he said, ‘You are to entice him, and you shall succeed; go out and do so.’

    Will truth or deception prevail? I know which we deserve.

    MD in Philly (f9371b)

  48. well reagan kept pushing that peace plan, and ultimately recognized the plo in 1988, so no one is perfect, re the shortcomings of sullivan, can I connect you with george zimmerman, line 3,

    narciso (732bc0)

  49. If he is not in jail without bail under indictment for racketeering, interstate fraud, immigration fraud and tax evasion.

    Not until December, win or lose.

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  50. Really, hf? There is evidence he might do those things, too:

    Yes, but Trump views those as good, not evil.

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  51. you could also ask robert mcfarlane what protections, one has from unfounded allegations, re the october surprise,

    narciso (732bc0)

  52. ot but on topic of political warfare
    http://spectator.org/articles/66150/bob-mcdonnell%E2%80%99s-revenge

    MD in Philly (f9371b)

  53. exactly the dems invert clausewitz, politics is the continuation of war by other means, the kennedy’s sent emmisaries to the Soviets telling to discount johnson’s entreaties, kennedy and tunney did similar with andropov and chernenko, kengor has the details, in the 80s, john rockefeller, tipped off various parties as to bush administration plans after 9/11

    narciso (732bc0)

  54. I think the #NeverTrump crowd is really missing the obvious. Their position is congealing many voters to shift toward Trump. The anti-Trump protesters in CA will serve to garner more votes for Trump, in my opinion.

    xsssx (5b5ffd)

  55. @ xsssx: No one in America is still undecided about Donald Trump. No one’s being congealed either, whatever that meant.

    But I agree with you that the violent protesters serve Trump’s purposes by keeping him atop the news. That much is really, really obvious. In fact, it’s so obvious, I have to ask you: Don’t you think that’s occurred to some of the Democrat lifelong full-time organizers who are fomenting and organizing these protests? That’s exactly what they want; Trump is exactly who they want to run against.

    Beldar (fa637a)

  56. Sure, the Democrats want to run against the most popular candidate in American electoral politics. The one who came from political obscurity to defeat 14 experienced politicians and drive the 2 remaining challengers into mathematically impossible situations. The candidate the who has overcome the media’s derision, the betrayal of the Republican establishment, and the hatred of Cruz supporters. Yeah, sure, the Democrats are chomping at the bit to take on Donald Trump. In a fat pig’s eye.

    ropelight (6b9125)

  57. the eye is so fat and pig-like i can’t even belieber

    happyfeet (831175)

  58. A veritable Gilgamesh. Almost of the stature of Millard Filmore.

    nk (dbc370)

  59. Or Jimmy Carter.

    nk (dbc370)

  60. Or James Buchanan.

    nk (dbc370)

  61. If he climbs a really tall ladder he might even be able to reach Barack Obama’s … knees.

    nk (dbc370)

  62. All he represents is a survey of idiocy in the American voter.

    nk (dbc370)

  63. oh c’mon admit it you’re a little biased

    happyfeet (831175)

  64. answer me this nk, or other residents of the windy city, why are indiana and illinois so similar in various undicators,

    http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/indiana-is-weird/

    narciso (732bc0)

  65. Beldar – I meant to type congealing the opinion of many voters. Maybe a bad analogy, but I still see fluidity reflected by people’s comments saying they were once for A but now are for B (on other forums). As for the Dems wanting Trump to get the Republican nomination, it is appearing as if they will get their wish.

    xsssx (5b5ffd)

  66. consolidating, come on, the randall flagg is a bit much,

    narciso (732bc0)

  67. It’s how God made us, narciso. We’re all descended from Adam and Eve.

    I’m sorry, I don’t understand your question. In politics, I have always viewed Indiana as much more conservative, in the Goldwater meaning of the word, than Illinois. If it’s poorer and has a smaller number of diplomas in it, I would guess it’s because it does not have Chicago.

    nk (dbc370)

  68. well it’s been a key state, in most presidential contests, you can tell the spin they are putting on this story, the % of uninsured are nearly identical, for instance,

    narciso (732bc0)

  69. oh c’mon admit it you’re a little biased

    I wish. Unfortunately, I have no feud with the Trump family which would prejudice me and at the same time comfort me that I was putting a good man down for no good reason at all. My bad opinion of him is based entirely on my consideration of his character, intellect, lifestyle, and political positions. All of which are very bad, and not such as I would want in a President.

    Similarly, I like Cruz, because of his character, intellect, and political positions. Which are very superior. I have no extraneous attachment to him. If I did not think he was objectively a better person than Trump, I’d be talking about him the way I’m talking about Hillary.

    nk (dbc370)

  70. Illinois was considered the bellwether state when I was young. Yeah, like that Charles Murray survey — which part of the elephant do you consider representative?

    nk (dbc370)

  71. For proof that Trump will beat Hillary, Trumpkins want us to ignore all the polling — head to head, unfavorables, whatever — going back consistently and for many months. We are to believe that The Donald will wave his huge hands and those numbers will disappear on command. The proof for this is supposed to be the way he’s running his campaign for the GOP nomination.

    News flash for you, Trumpkins: Even if Trump manages to get to a solid 1237 votes on the first ballot at the convention — a proposition that is still very much in doubt, or he wouldn’t be pouring new millions of his own bucks into this primary campaign right now, would he? — he will still end up as the GOP nominee who has taken the longest time to secure his nomination since Gerald R. Ford in 1976. That’s a pretty long list, and it includes such all-time all-stars as Bob Dole and John McCain. Trump is underperforming everyone else but Ford (whose first POTUS nomination came after he’d already held the office for two years). If he doesn’t get that first-ballot nomination, though, the rest of his sorry campaign will suddenly become determinative — against him.

    You Trumpkins really do have fine taste in Emperor’s Clothing.

    Beldar (fa637a)

  72. If you look over at places where the Trumpies run free, even Instapundit these days, you’ll find that they are full of “what’s going to happen to all those people who’ve been mean to us.”

    They really want to go all Rodney King on a very long list of people, institutions and organizations. I wonder what’s going to happen when they lose badly and Trump tells them the election was stolen. This dial is already at 11.

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  73. Sure, the Democrats want to run against the most popular candidate in American electoral politics.

    Yes, 20% of the people love him like pancakes. 20% will stomach him like the flu. And the other 60% view him on a range from AIDS to Pancreatic Cancer.

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  74. This concise but thorough review of previous GOP contested conventions, written by Trey Mayfield for “The Federalist” in March, is worth a read if you haven’t seen it. Sample paragraph:

    In 1948, New York Gov. Thomas Dewey came into the nomination with the most delegates, and became the nominee after the second ballot. In 1940, Dewey also came in with the most delegates—37 percent, followed by Taft with 20 percent, and businessman Wendell Willkie (who had been a Democrat until a year earlier) with 11 percent. After six ballots, the convention settled on Willkie as the compromise choice.

    Beldar (fa637a)

  75. I confess I didn’t know that about Wendell Willkie. I guess in 1940, Republicans still had an initial tendency to nominate actual Republicans. Of course, FDR slaughtered Willkie anyway.

    Beldar (fa637a)

  76. not exactly,

    A longtime Democratic activist, Willkie changed his party registration to Republican in late 1939. He did not run in the 1940 presidential primaries, but positioned himself as an acceptable choice for a deadlocked convention. He sought backing from uncommitted delegates, while his supporters, many youthful, enthusiastically promoted his candidacy. As Hitler rampaged through Western Europe in the spring of 1940, many Republicans did not wish to nominate an isolationist like Thomas E. Dewey, and turned to Willkie, who was nominated on the sixth ballot over Ohio Senator Robert A. Taft. Willkie’s support for aid to Britain removed it as a major factor in his race against Roosevelt, and Willkie also backed the president on a peacetime draft. Both men took more isolationist positions in the final days of the race. Roosevelt won a third term, taking 38 of the 48 states.

    narciso (732bc0)

  77. Here’s an excerpt from Benjy Sarlin’s article at NBC News, 4/29/16:

    GOP Elites Reaching ‘Acceptance Phase’ for Donald Trump

    With Donald Trump’s path to the nomination looking wider by the day, a number of top Republicans are signaling their willingness to support his candidacy — even some who have fiercely criticized him in the past. This softening opposition indicates that the GOP establishment is reaching the “acceptance stage” of the grieving process, even as Sen. Ted Cruz and his new running mate Carly Fiorina try to mount a last stand in Indiana. The shift reflects the intensity of loathing for Cruz among elements of the party as much as it does their begrudging acceptance of Trump…

    ropelight (6b9125)

  78. Yeah, Sarlin screwed the pooch in his original version, repeating a Breitbart/Tampa Bay News distortion of a Rubio quote.

    I will probably let Breitbart and TBN have it this weekend over that. Allahpundit elegantly laid them out today. He was too gentlemanly to call them liars. I suffer from no such virtue.

    Patterico (86c8ed)

  79. @ropelight: If your opinion is decided by poular vote, you have forfeited your own vote.
    If you have never fought a battle until the final loss, have you ever been the one to win it?
    History is made, not by those who surrender, but by those who persist.
    The truest loser is the one who surrenders before all is lost.

    In other words:
    If Trump has 1,237 delegates, he’s won. (But I’ll still vote Cruz in the primary, because I don’t trust or agree with Trump, and it needs to be clear that I do not stand with Trump.)
    If he doesn’t, I’m voting for Cruz, and praying Cruz gets the nomination…and the presidency.

    Ibidem (970323)

  80. If you think Trump is the most popular person in politics because he’s managed to get a bit over a third of one party’s votes, logic is lacking.
    Trump has 65% unfavorables; Cruz has 55%, and HRC 56%.
    In other words, Trump is probably the most hated man in American politics.
    The fact that he’s won a plurality in one party’s primary does not disprove that: Republicans and Democrats are each roughly 1/3 of the population, and the majority of the population doesn’t bother voting in the primaries. But even assuming that the primaries are a representative sample of a party and rounding Trump’s share of the total votes to 45% (IIRC, he had 37% before New York and the Acela states voted, so that’s generous), Trump would only have demonstrated the support of 15% of American voters (45% * 1/3). Assume that the Republican primaries are a representative sample of Republicans and Independents (a preposterous assumption), and that says Trump has demonstrated the support of 30% of Americans.
    100% – 30% is 70% and 100% – 15% is 85%, so Trump’s performance so far is worse than his unfavorables.

    Ibidem (970323)

  81. Ibidem, facts are facts, the Cruz campaign is faced with a sink or swim situation. Ted Cruz wins Indiana or he’s toast. It’s that simple and the voters of the Hoosier State will make the call.

    If Cruz wins, he lives to fight another day. If he loses it’s over.

    ropelight (6b9125)

  82. Kevin M (25bbee) — 4/29/2016 @ 9:05 pm

    Great comment.

    DRJ (15874d)

  83. Here is a link to the current version of the Sarlin article rooelight quoted from above.

    ropelight, it would be helpful if you provided links when you post quotes.

    DRJ (15874d)

  84. Ibidem,

    That was a good practical analysis of why Trump is heading towards slaughter in November. Gallup provides a 2011 baseline of Trump’s favorable/unfavorable rating and name recognition to compare to his current standing. Moving his favorable/unfavorable rating from 43/47 in 2011 to 28/65 in 2016 is quite an accomplishment, considering his name recognition was very high in 2011.

    Clinton’s floor is 45-47% while Trump’s is probably 40-42%. I’m confident Trump will be able to hit the floor on November 8 very easily.

    Rick Ballard (284091)

  85. Whoever wins in November, I will never again listen to Rush Limbaugh, watch Fox News, or read Breitbart. This primary has shown they could care less about conservative principles.

    DRJ (15874d)

  86. Our own happyfeet was seen riding D.C. Metro recently:

    Dr. Weevil (3b3f11)

  87. Hmm: apparently the link button just deletes the link input. Try again with the link in my signature. You may or may not regret it.

    Dr. Weevil (3b3f11)

  88. The “will to believe.” Not new.

    http://www.amazon.com/Extraordinary-Popular-Delusions-Madness-Crowds/dp/1463740514

    About the Author

    Charles Mackay (1841-1889) was born in Perth Scotland. His mother died shortly after his birth, and his father, who had been in turn a Lieutenant on a Royal Navy sloop (captured and imprisoned for four years in France) …

    …To quote John Kenneth Galbraith, Economist: “There’s nothing unique about this. It is something which happens every 20 or 30 years because that is about the length of the financial memory. It’s about the length of time that it requires for a new set of suckers, if you will, a new set of people capable of wonderful self-delusion to come in and imagine that they have a new and wonderful fix on the future.”…

    ropelight, papertiger, et al. I’ve known about you all my life. And so has Trump. You’re the new set of suckers.

    Steve57 (52b365)

  89. One of us is and my money’s on you.

    ropelight (0f59b5)

  90. watch Fox News

    DRJ,

    You’re definitely not alone. Fox is already reaping their Trump support reward. They’ve certainly earned it.

    Rick Ballard (284091)

  91. Well galbraith should talk he sold fdr a toxic patent medicine, and was a Johnny applessed for lyndon, betrayed the khambas while ambassador to India.

    His son, undermined the Iraq war effort and got a good oil concession out of it, let the future aq minions run rampant in the balkans, sought to topple karzai, no wonder he was grouchy.

    narciso (d8c19d)

  92. Here’s an excerpt from an article by Kyle Cheney and Ben Schreckinger at Politico 4/29/16

    GOP’s Stop-Trump Fever Breaks

    The Stop-Trump fever that gripped the Republican establishment for months has broken.

    The walls are closing in around a shrinking band of hard-core opponents of the New York billionaire, who is tightening his grip on the Republican presidential nomination with big wins in state after state, congressional endorsements, and the acknowledgment from pillars of the GOP elite that Donald Trump will be the party’s standard-bearer.

    There was grizzled RNC committeeman Ron Kaufman likening Trump to Reagan. There was Indiana Gov. Mike Pence’s half-hearted endorsement of Ted Cruz. There was former House Speaker John Boehner’s confession that he and Trump are texting buddies and golfing partners. There’s the slew of endorsements (and a prediction by Trump campaign officials that another wave is coming after Indiana votes next week). It’s adding up to a slow but steady coalescing around the man once considered so vile to the GOP base that he’d rip the party to shreds.

    “We’ve had enough intraparty fighting. Now’s the time to stitch together a winning coalition,” said Jon Huntsman, the former governor of Utah. “And it’s been clear almost from the beginning that Donald Trump has the ability to assemble a nontraditional bloc of supporters. … The ability to cut across traditional party boundaries — like ’80, ’92 and 2008 — will be key, and Trump is much better positioned to achieve that.”

    ropelight (0f59b5)

  93. We will stop Trump, either now or in November. Do not think we will come to like him. I would rather see my country lose a war than be governed by Donald Trump.

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  94. Huntsman! lol
    Politico! rofl

    nk (dbc370)

  95. It gets confusing. I thought the GOPe is bad and Trump is out to destroy them etc. If the GOPe can live with Trump then that should be seen as bad shouldn’t it? OTOH if things unexpectedly start moving in Cruz’s direction and it looks like Trump won’t get the first ballot win, then it’s 100% certain we’ll be told it’s because the GOPe is pulling the strings, Cruz is establishment, etc. What’s a good word to describe people who can go back and forth like that?

    Gerald A (7c7ffb)

  96. Terrible twos? When it’s at the end of the day and they’re really exhausted and cranky and don’t want to take their bath before bed?

    nk (dbc370)

  97. the medici and rubio, and stay puft’s were the top three establishment picks, they’re just bargaining now,

    narciso (732bc0)

  98. 91. One of us is and my money’s on you.

    ropelight (0f59b5) — 4/30/2016 @ 8:19 am

    As received.

    I’m going to hang this on a wall but a different wall where I display taxidermied effigies of Buffleheads, Surf Scoters, Teal, Shovelers, etc. Out of my deep respect for the ducks.

    Steve57 (52b365)

  99. Good to see another fan of the Babalu blog here.

    Anti-Communism has sort of fallen out of style. Which is a shame as we need it more than ever, just in case you don’t know what the whole SJW/PC thing is about.

    Shout out to my South Vietnamese boat people homies.

    Steve57 (412496)

  100. http://floatingcubans.com/

    This page is dedicated to the ingenuity and entrepreneurial spirit of the various Cuban refugees who have attempted to sail to the United States on homemade vessels cleverly crafted from old American cars. Unfortunately, often they have been caught before reaching American soil, and returned to Cuba. Here’s to you, floating Cubans! Your cleverness and your persistence inspire me. May you all achieve your goal, and finally reach the land of McDonald’s, Disney, and Coca-Cola…

    Yeah. No. You just don’t do this unless you have run out of all other options. And you don’t do this on every single level. You don’t have the skills; no Cuban nautical engineer would talk to you because he knows he’s watched. You lack the materials. Think you’re going to buy (if you can afford it) boat building materials and go unnoticed? You can’t even possess shrimp or beef; that’s for the tourists. Cuban cops board buses in Havana and set up roadblocks around other parts of country for that.

    Good luck putting together a stock of polyester resin to make a good boat.

    Cubans aren’t stupid. They know old Buicks make bad boats. But it’s what they have.

    I hate how we’re selling them out.

    Steve57 (412496)

  101. …In early February of 2004, three of the original truckonauts made a second attempt to reach Florida. Their new, more sophisticated vessel, with a passenger complement of eleven, was crafted from a 1959 Buick: the interior was welded to be watertight, the prow of a boat was attached to the front of the car, and, amazingly, the car was fully functional and still had its tires. Their audacious plan was to reach landfall in Florida, discard the boat parts, and drive to a relative’s home in Lake Worth, FL.

    Sure, why not?

    Word to the wise, carwise. These are not cars you want to buy. It may have started as ’59 but by the time it entered the Gulf of Mexico in 2004 it was not in any sense of the word a ’59 Buick. My hat is off and kudos and whatevs to the Cuban shade tree mechanics who kept these things running all these years but keeping it “collectible” wasn’t high on the list in 1975. When the diesel Soviet tractor engine went in.

    If you think parts are hard to find for a ’59 Buick here, try finding them in Cuba.

    Steve57 (412496)


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