Patterico's Pontifications

4/19/2016

Open Thread: New York Primary

Filed under: General — Patterico @ 7:32 am



Trump is going to crush Cruz tonight. (I told you that New York values crack was ill-advised.) I’m going to do my best to avoid obsessing over the results. I may go for a walk. I may listen to Tom Woods and Bob Murphy do their Q&A session about economics at Liberty Classroom. I may read. I may work. Anything but get obsessive over the results, which we know will be bad.

The pundits, who have treated Cruz as well-nigh inevitable, will now treat Trump as totally inevitable. Prepare for at least two weeks of think pieces to that effect.

The key today is keep our heads when all about us are losing theirs and blaming it on us.

126 Responses to “Open Thread: New York Primary”

  1. Ding.

    Patterico (86c8ed)

  2. I don’t think it was that ill-advised – it hurts Cruz in 2 states he wasn’t going to win anyways, New York and the New York wannabes in New Jersey, and helps him in the other 48.

    Skip (83e9b7)

  3. Cruz is losing NY b/c NYers are liberals, even the Republicans. NY Values. How is this Cruz’s fault or his supporters? Can’t say I would understand that media narrative.

    Like saying Trump lost Texas because of Trump and his followers. No, he lost because Trump is not a Texan and does not have Texas values nor is he consistently Conservative in any meaningful way.

    Rodney King's Spirit (db6706)

  4. NY City values. And they’re currently getting the government they so richly deserve.

    Colonel Haiku (7b1ecf)

  5. Trump trumped again

    The level of political disorganizational skill displayed is amazing.

    Rick Ballard (a3b6dc)

  6. I really don’t know that the “crack” was “ill-advised” when you consider that the purpose of it was to make reference to Trump himself stating years ago that his New York values are different than those of Iowa. If Cruz hadn’t pulled off the upset in Iowa, I don’t know that we would be talking about him as a viable candidate at all. Trump might be bulldozing his way to Cleveland and sparring with the GOP hierarchy about installing his puppets into the party leadership.

    L.N. Smithee (b84cf6)

  7. Trump’s strategy is to win on the first ballot by having the 1237 votes. If he doesn’t have that he will lose no matter what he does. He’s argue and threaten and whine about how he wuz robbed, but the cold calculation is that the party operatives that get the delegate nods are NOT going to be Trump supporters.

    So he’s not wasting his time trying to fight over scraps that don’t matter. Cruz has no choice, because he has no first ballot options and probably no third ballot options, either.

    In the end, it’s all about California. If Trump wins California, he has the nomination. If he doesn’t, he won’t get it. Barring some completely surprising results in the other states, Cruz needs to start working with the CA GOP on a ground game, and identifying issues that the rank-and-file care about. If he just breezes into the state late in the day, and expects to use the same issues that play in Texas, and doesn’t have the state’s GOP icons all lined up in support (e.g. Condi), Trump will win with the droolers.

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  8. The “NY values” line was as ill-advised as “binders of women” was. Those that wanted to be offended, were, and loudly so, but mainly because the remark hit the mark.

    The governor of NY had said that Republicans don’t have New York values, and this was a remark that Mr Trump was no Republican. Although, I have not heard it said by any New York liberal that people should vote for Trump as he represents NY values, so it’s a bit confusing why Trump would benefit from this.

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  9. I agree with L.N. New York values helped Cruz win Iowa:

    But it’s clear from many months of polling that Iowans were already suspicious of Trump’s background and thus susceptible to Cruz’s argument. He first used the line [“New York values”] two days before the January 14 debate in South Carolina, and though Trump outmaneuvered Cruz when the subject was raised on stage, it had been planted in the public consciousness, and the Texas senator’s campaign made sure it stuck. Down the home stretch in Iowa, Cruz ran a devastating TV ad featuring video of Trump’s 1999 interview with Tim Russert, in which he said his New York upbringing made him “pro-choice in every respect” and gave him views that were different than those he would have if he were from Iowa.

    According to the link, plurality of the actual Iowa voters said “Shares my values” mattered to them, and it wasn’t New York values they were looking for.

    DRJ (15874d)

  10. So, does Trump, who liberals call every name in the book, have New York values? What are they, then?

    Or is it simply hometown-ahole versus outsider-ahole? If so, it doesn’t matter what Cruz says. Although he has some chance of getting 10-20 delegates, particularly the at-large ones.

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  11. Cruz knows California will decide the nomination and he’s been working on his organization there for months. I’m sure that includes wooing state and local Republican leaders but he can’t force them to join/endorse him. It’s up to them now.

    DRJ (15874d)

  12. Trump told Tim Russert that New York values are social issues, including support for SSM and partial birth abortion. I think most of us in the red states think it’s that plus liberal economic policies.

    DRJ (15874d)

  13. I’ve watched NY values from the distance of Philadelphia for years. In areas around NY we know what NY values are. Like standing around doing nothing while a woman is stabbed to death. Like people being robbed and beaten in the subways but when Bernard Goetz shoots a few of the little ba$tards they arrest him. Or people just walking down the street with an expression that looks like they want to cut somebody’s throat. Literally peeing on a street person. Crapping on a police car at OWS. Establishing “rent control” to keep prices down for the average person who now can’t afford to live there because of rent control. Not being able to legally own or carry a gun, but all the rich guys can, and the judges and lawyers and whoever has the money to pay. There are a thousand more NY values and I’m sure you could add your own.

    Hoagie ™ (e4fcd6)

  14. In the Republican primary, there are 95 delegate votes at stake. The delegates are allocated 14+3 party officials, statewide, and 3×27 or 81 in each Congressional district. (The 3 party officials are like super-delegates, but pledged to the statewide winner on the first ballot.)

    Each district gets the same number of delegates (3), regardless of the number of Republicans registered or voting. Some have very few, only professional Republicans maybe, who registered Republican because they work for the Board of Elections, especially on Election Day (all poll workers, except the Door Clerks the Information clerks and the interpreters must be either Democrats or Republicans and they are split equally.)

    Or someone might have registered Republican because in some election, they hadn’t been registered at all and then were hired to gather petitions. Most registered Republicans in New York City don’t follow politics that closely and don’t vote in every election, or else they probably wouldn’t be registered Republicans, except in certain areas.

    In each category, statewide or Congressional district, if anyone gets over 50%, he gets all the delegates, in that CD, or for the statewide allocation of 17 votes. If someone does not hit 50% but gets at least one other person hits 20%, they are split 2-1. I think the 17 may be split a little differently. I don’t know if they goo all finishers above 20% (unless someone gets 50% in which case he wins them all)

    It is virtually impossible for Trump to fall below 50% and then for neither Kasich or Cruz to get 20%. (If the leader was above 20% and below 50%, and no one else gets 20% then someone under 2% could geta delegate in a CD, I think.)

    The real race is for second place. Or at least to avoid coming in third, which Trump is not likely to do anywhere. It’s really a Kasich versus Cruz primary, but I am not sure how many people understand that. Kasich leads Cruz by a small margin in a statewide poll. I don’t know how it will work in the pocket boroughs.

    On the Democratic side, they have more delegates. There are 291 Democratic delegates, of which 44 are Super-delegates, and probably most of them are unofficially, or reversibly, pledged to Hillary Clinton. Of the remaining 247, 84 are allocated statewide, and 163 distributed among the 27 congressional districts (for an average of just above 6 each) Each Congressional district gets 5 or 6 or 7 delegates, depending on Democratic success or numbers there, I suppose.

    They are split proportionately between any candidates getting over 15%. It is highly unlikely that either Hillary or Bernie will fall below the threshold anywhere.

    In addition to voting for president, a person also can vote for individual delegates at the district level. The 84 statewide statewide, which are about one third, are probably chosen in some kind of a statewide committee meeting of insiders. They may need to balance out any incorrect racial or sexual composition while they are at it. They are committed, of course, on the first ballot in proportion to the statewde vote.)

    The district deegates are chosen this way: If, suppose Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders split 6 delegates evenly, 3-3, the top 3 of 6 Hillary delegates and the top 3 of 6 Bernie delegates get to go to the convention. Or it might go 4-2 or 2-4. It is like a primary within a primary. each slate contains three males and 3 females, but they don’t have to elect three males and 3 females. It’s not the top 3 females and top 3 males. Each candidate gets the number of delegates they
    qualify for, and the specific delegates who get the most votes, are the ones who get to go to the convention. Obviously, you can’t split 3 delegates evenly between male and female.

    A voter should pick the top 3 Hillary and the 3 top 3 Bernie delegates they prefer. Or you could pick all 6 from one candidate, which is pointless.

    Here it is explained, for congressman Jerrold Nadler’s district, with the delegate candidates listed:

    http://westviewnews.org/2016/04/the-april-19-presidential-primary-ballot-lots-of-choices/

    Sammy Finkelman (366297)

  15. Here’s the entire list of candidates in the April 19 New York presidential primary, which I onl;y found because I found a list of several candidates first. A search on one (more obscure) name found this

    http://vote.nyc.ny.us/downloads/pdf/documents/boe/2016PresidentialPrimary/2016PresPrimContestListPDF_322016_910am.pdf

    In the Republican primary, Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio and Ben Carson are still on the ballot, in additon to Donald Trump, John Kasich and Ted Cruz. Carson’s home address is given as Alexandria, Virginia.

    The only Democratic Presidential candidates are “Bernie Sanders” and “Hillary Clinton” but heera re lots of candidates for delegate to the Democratic National Convention.

    Sammy Finkelman (366297)

  16. it’s too early to know who won yet so i made some salmon

    happyfeet (831175)

  17. I think the Sanders voters, snd maybe the Trump voters, although maybe also the anti-Trump voters are mre enthusaisic and likely to turn out. I don’t think the Trump lead an be as big as the polls show. Sanders may be getting closer to Hillary, but theer was a time before when Sanders predicted an upset and it didn’t happen. Candidates can get fooled by the size of their crowds. I don’t know why this kees on happening again and again with different candidates. On the other hand, nobody predicted Michigan, but in Michigan I think the Flint water issue, which Hillary thought was her ace in the hole, actually worked to help split the black vote more evenly between Clinton and Sanders because there was a debate that partially focused on it, and Sanders looked concerned. I don’t know if theer’s anything this time to get mre votes for Sanders. Of course, in the end, you can see that it’s very hard to see him winning the nomination (I think) no matter how much he embarasses Hillary.

    Sanders was advertising heavily on television, and also on radio. Mostly or entirely one cmmercial about banks and how some other things and how that can be done. I didn’t see anything from Hillary except a web ad on a shopping site. (Watsonsale) She actually probably has less money. I think her whatever ads she has are probably micro-targeted. Kasich has appeared on interviews – he wasa the only person to agree to a WOR 710 radio interview on the WOR morning show – at 9:45 am. And he made some appearances but mostly doesn’t know where the votes are. Some people invite him for tehor own reasons, even though nobody connected to them is a registered Republican.

    Cruz has run some (unfair) anti-Trump ads on talk radio. Unfair because that Trump quote about having heard de Blasio say some nice words about him is probably not why he gave money to Bill DeBlasio. Actually the true reason is probably worse.

    The Daily News endorsed Hillary and Kasich; the New York Post Trump and Hillary. The New York Post Trump editorial and the Daily News Hillary editorial were, I think, half hearted. The editor of the New York Post announced his retirement the day the editorial for Trump ran.

    Someone in the New York Post advocated holding her nose and voting. The Daily News sometimes seems to somewhat critical of Hillary. they made Hillary and sanders look like they took the same position on the 9/11 lawsuit bill. I think Hillary chose her words carefully on that. Hillary was not disagreeing with Obama.

    Sammy Finkelman (366297)

  18. In the Republican primary, Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio and Ben Carson are still on the ballot, in additon to Donald Trump, John Kasich and Ted Cruz. Carson’s home address is given as Alexandria, Virginia.

    Not where I voted. There were only four names on the ballot: the three remaining candidates, plus Carson.

    Milhouse (87c499)

  19. I voted at 3:45, and I was Republican #10 in my electoral district. The fellow manning the table told me that the D counter for that district was somewhere in the 230s. There was no line at that hour, but he said earlier it had been “a mob scene”. The polls close at 9:00.

    Milhouse (87c499)

  20. Obviously, you can’t split 3 delegates evenly between male and female.

    Sure you can. Have the odd delegate identify as male half the time and female the other half.

    Milhouse (87c499)

  21. @ Rick Ballard (#5), thanks for that “Trump trumped” link regarding Missouri. The two paragraphs that I found most interesting, of many such, were:

    [T]he Trump campaign over the weekend indicated unhappiness with the process in Missouri. Paul Manafort, the chief delegate strategist for the Trump campaign, said Sunday during an interview on NBC’s “Meet the Press” that a formal protest over the results of delegate elections in Missouri would likely be filed.

    ….

    Lately, Cruz’s strategy has evolved to reach out to supporters of Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida, who suspended his presidential campaign on March 15, and integrate them into their teams.

    Of the committees that each state’s delegation send to Cleveland before the convention, most of the focus so far has been on the Rules Committee. But there’s also a Credentials Committee, which hears challenges to the seating of state delegations; that’s where challenges to the selection process will be heard.

    The problem for Manafort and his boss are: They’ve paid no more attention to getting representation on the Credentials Committee than to getting representation on the Rules Committee. Instead, both of those are going to be heavily dominated by the very most regular of party regulars.

    As for making nice with Rubio supporters and pledged delegates: That’s just the art of the deal. Seems like Sen. Cruz actually knows more about that than Mr. Trump.

    Beldar (fa637a)

  22. Sure you can. Have the odd delegate identify as male half the time and female the other half.

    Love the way you think. Good thing you weren’t around during integration though.

    Hoagie ™ (e4fcd6)

  23. Only the best people: Donald Trump’s Jet, a Regular on the Campaign Trail, Isn’t Registered to Fly:

    As a result [of the fact that his Boeing 757 is too big to land at many airports], Mr. Trump often presses the 1997 Cessna 750 Citation X, which was designed to seat eight people, into action. It has made hundreds of flights since he announced his plan to seek the Republican nomination in June 2015, according to F.A.A. records reviewed by The New York Times.

    Dozens of those flights were made after Jan. 31, when the registration expired. The plane flew as recently as Monday, when it was used to transport Team Trump between La Guardia Airport and Buffalo for a campaign event on the eve of the New York primary. On Friday, it flew to Plattsburgh, N.Y., and to Hartford for rallies in those cities, according to radio transmissions broadcast by the plane that were archived on a flight data website and reviewed by The Times.

    The F.A.A. warned Mr. Trump that the Cessna’s registration was set to expire, records show.

    On Dec. 1, DJT Operations CX L.L.C., the limited liability company owned by Mr. Trump that operates the Cessna, received a “final notice” from the F.A.A., according to records reviewed by The Times.

    Then, on March 1, DJT Operations CX was notified that the registration had expired.

    “The aircraft’s registration and airworthiness certificates no longer support the aircraft’s operation,” the agency wrote.

    Just more scofflaw behavior from Trump: Rules are for little people.

    Beldar (fa637a)

  24. Obviously, you can’t split 3 delegates evenly between male and female.

    Sure you can. Have the odd delegate identify as male half the time and female the other half.

    Milhouse (87c499) — 4/19/2016 @ 3:26 pm

    ===================================

    That’s a ridiculously unworkable solution. Make sure your carbon monoxide alarm is working, Milhouse.

    Colonel Haiku (7b1ecf)

  25. Exactly how is it unworkable, Haiku? Aren’t the Ds all about respecting how people identify at any given moment? Biology is not destiny and all that. The rules require that delegates be equally balanced between males and females, not between those with and without penises, so any gender imbalance can easily be corrected by having the excess delegates of one gender identify as the other. Who would dare to challenge them? Racial disparities can be corrected the same way.

    Milhouse (87c499)

  26. Cruz knows California will decide the nomination and he’s been working on his organization there for months. I’m sure that includes wooing state and local Republican leaders but he can’t force them to join/endorse him. It’s up to them now.

    Cruz has done several interviews on a popular news radio talk show. The hosts are known for their in-your-face blunt interviews and have a take-no-prisoners approach. It doesn’t matter who the guest is. The interviews were substantive, direct, and Cruz was put on the spot several times to explain himself. Which he did, easily and cogently.

    Dana (0ee61a)

  27. That is a popular advertising method in such neighborhoods, where many people don’t own TVs or read the secular press. But I doubt the utility, because most Boro Park yiddelach register as Democrats because the community activists (askoonem) tell them to, so they can block-vote in D primaries for local offices in return for looking after the community’s interests. Resisting that pressure and registering R takes a commitment to principles, and I don’t see people like that being swayed by some guy in a sound truck who’s not even making any arguments.

    Milhouse (87c499)

  28. By the way, I looked it up, and NY election districts are supposed to have a maximum of 950 active voters, and are not allowed to go over 1150.

    Milhouse (87c499)

  29. Oh good grief. “Trump’s Iowa campaign co-chair on CNN right now saying Cruz’s team is “bribing” delegates, and that she’s “seen it in action. CNN anchors press Trump surrogate for specifics on claim of Cruz “bribery.” She says she will say more once Trump gives her permission.”

    No evidence needed! Just throw out the Cruz is a a felon accusation and see if it sticks.

    Dana (0ee61a)

  30. Boston to New York City is home of the most self absorbing values on the planet.

    mg (31009b)

  31. Yeah, I saw that (#30) live this morning, Dana. I thought the CNN panel did a surprisingly good job exposing her — pointed follow-up questions on exactly what she saw, which backed her into the ridiculous corner of insisting (my paraphrase, not a direct quote): “I’ll have to get permission from the boss (who sent me to talk as his surrogate on your show) before I can tell you what I claim to have witnessed with my own eyes.” She was really, really pathetic — Trumpkin Shill Third Class at best.

    But then she was followed by a Cruz campaign surrogate — I think it was former VA Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli — who was just devastating. They quizzed him about what Cruz was “offering the delegates in exchange for their support.” He assumed a really serious look, glanced to his left and right as if looking for the loot bags, cupped his hands to his mouth, and replied (again, my paraphrase from memory, not a quote):

    In exchange for their support, we’re offering them their Constitution back.

    Even the CNN talking heads laughed. But one of them started pressing Cuccinelli along the lines of, “This is politics, we all know there are pay-offs in politics, so what are you guys offering as the payoff.”

    Cuccinelli said something like, “Your liberal biases are obvious to anyone watching just from the way you phrased that question,” and then proceeded to run through the processes going back over a year through which the Cruz campaign has set about to identify and persuade delegates that they ought to support Cruz based on their own judgments about what’s best for the country.

    It was an incredible mismatch — not only between the respective campaign surrogates, but between Cuccinelli and the CNN morning-show B-team that was on.

    Beldar (fa637a)

  32. Yeah, it was indeed Ken Cuccinelli, who is indeed managing Cruz’ “delegate herding.” He was sharp, I’ll keep looking for the video.

    Beldar (fa637a)

  33. I found Cucinelli’s response at TPM (of all places).

    Here is the Trump surrogate making her outlandish claims.

    Brilliant response from Cucinelli. Unfortunately, there significance of such a response is lost on CNN folk. And I think it would also be lost on Democrats and Trump supporters.

    Dana (0ee61a)

  34. And from that just-linked (#33) article (emphasis mine):

    The Cruz campaign does have an advantage, he says, and it’s the grassroots organization.
    “We were built as a grassroots campaign,” said Cuccinelli. “Neither Trump or Kasich have given any thought about this kind of a grassroots effort. And we started on March 23, the day Cruz announced.” In fact, he says, the Trump campaign “hasn’t even tried” to figure it out — at least not yet.

    “They’ve not got some storied generals,” he says, clearly referring to Manafort. “They need some non-coms.”

    Given the data-driven organization of the Cruz campaign, Cuccinelli said, “the infrastructure was in place.” That includes efforts to absorb the Rand Paul and Marco Rubio delegates, he adds.

    ….

    As for the process — or the notion that it is rigged against Trump — Cuccinelli doesn’t buy it. “It’s hard, and it’s not for the faint of heart. But the rules have been set since 2015.”

    The trick, he says, is to try not to let anything fall through the cracks.

    “It is unbelievable how many details there are to keep track of, and you have to make assessments daily” about how to deploy volunteers and resources. “It’s hard to overstate how important volunteers are in all of this.”

    But the volunteers have to show up first!

    So I ask all of the Trumpkins and Trumpkin shills who comment here: How many of you have done anything to support the GOP at the precinct level, beyond casting your individual vote? Specifically, have any of you done anything to try to influence the delegate selection process as it exists where you live? Shown up at a meeting? Sent in an email with your contact info? Anything?

    If not, what are you doing wasting time posting comments here?

    Beldar (fa637a)

  35. That’s it (#34) exactly, Dana! The graphic is him doing the stage-whisper I remembered. Thanks!

    Beldar (fa637a)

  36. well cuccinelli, like mcdaniel understand the top men, can’t ever be trusted, and that’s good on their side,

    narciso (732bc0)

  37. Does Cruz have to beat Trump’s offer of airfare and hotel rooms for delegates or is a pulled pork sandwich enough?

    Does a Trump spox have to fail a polygraph to win a job with him or does Trump take their word they can lie as well (poorly) as he does?

    Rick Ballard (a3b6dc)

  38. Rick Ballard,

    I believe that Trump, by pushing the envelope of truth to the point of non-existence, has set the standard for his supporters to follow. They’ve seen him get away untruths and flip-flops-flips and never have to face any real consequences for it, and thus they too operate that way. He leads, they follow. And somewhere along the line, they leave their integrity at the side of the road. But I also think there are those who are just so angry that they don’t want or care about truth, they just want the ramped up emotion to keep them going. That is their validation.

    Dana (0ee61a)

  39. Dana (#34), I agree: Cuccinelli’s reference to “getting their Constitution back” was probably lost on Trumpkins and Democrats alike. They think the Constitution is breathing but irrelevant.

    Beldar (fa637a)

  40. Opinions regarding the most effective official Trump surrogate on the networks?

    (“Official” to leave out the de facto surrogates like Hannity, but including, for instance, Donnie Jr.)

    I think it’s probably Katrina Pierson. This morning she was predicting Trump will sweep all 95 NY delegates tonight, which I think was overbold, but she said it with a straight face, a smile, and no supporting particulars that would come back to haunt her later.

    Behind the scenes, according to the talking heads at CNN, Team Trump says their “worst case” in NY is 75 delegates. I do think they’ll likely do better than that, but I haven’t dug enough into the congressional district fights to have any specific predictions about tonight’s results.

    Beldar (fa637a)

  41. Mark Levin was going bonkers over a clip of Trump saying he helped clear debris after 9/11. Levin asked anyone who actually observed it to call in. Also on the clip Trump said “7/11” which Levin was mocking (“did he get a slurpy?).

    Gerald A (7c7ffb)

  42. Regarding Trump’s claim that Cruz is stealing delegates and not respecting what the voters “decided”, I’m reminded of the race to Messina in WWII, where the Allied command had promised Montgomery the honor of liberating Messina, but Patton and Bradley decided they would get there first anyway.

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  43. Unless DJT shows ridiculous strength in Indiana, it all comes down to the ~170 unbound 1st ballot delegates. DJT will need a minimum of 1/3, and more likely closer to half of these on the first ballot to win.

    Stories out of Indiana, for example, are saying that DJT will be lucky to have more than five 2nd-ballot votes, even if he were to sweep all 37 for the 1st ballot. You think he’s going to fare well with the unbound (superdelegates and almost all party regulars). The only way that happens is if there is a complete sellout by Priebus and the Senators and congressmen.

    As for tonight, I’ll be thrilled if DJT is limited to 80 1st ballot delegates.

    Ed from SFV (3400a5)

  44. On another thread, steveg mentioned a RealClearPolitics.com article about unbound delegates from Pennsylvania that I’d also found interesting, so I went back to find a link: NBC: Cruz to Win Half Of Pennsylvania’s Delegates, “Even If He Comes In Distant Third.”

    Beldar (fa637a)

  45. To understand what is going on in California, the Field Poll has some nice crosstabs. Republicans in LA and the Central Valley support Cruz, while Trump is slightly ahead in NoCal and way ahead in the rest of SoCal. Since the Hispanic population is concentrated in the Central Valley and LA, this is kind of interesting.

    Then again, NY exit polls say that Trump voters there are for a pathway to citizenship, so WTFDIKINATV.

    http://www.field.com/fieldpollonline/subscribers/Rls2530.pdf

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  46. Trump actually name-checks Carl Icahn with no sense of irony. 65% of registered Rs in New York state voted for this guy. Mein Gott.

    carlitos (c24ed5)

  47. Tough night for Kelly.

    And dueling bulldozers in a street fight (YouTube).

    papertiger (c2d6da)

  48. Milhouse, which congressional district do you live in, if you don’t mind saying?

    Beldar (fa637a)

  49. Dana (#34), I agree: Cuccinelli’s reference to “getting their Constitution back” was probably lost on Trumpkins and Democrats alike. They think the Constitution is breathing but irrelevant.

    Beldar, to say they think it’s breathing gives them too much credit.

    Dana (0ee61a)

  50. In the word cloud around Donald Trump, “Constitution” is in 2-point font.

    Beldar (fa637a)

  51. You mean 2 Font, Beldar? 😉

    Ed from SFV (3400a5)

  52. Trump was smart to give a short speech tonight. But of course, he couldn’t help whining at the end.

    Beldar (fa637a)

  53. So to honor the victory of the First! Woman! President! in her home-state Democratic Primary, the turn the Empire State Building’s exterior lighting deep blue. Isn’t that sort of phallocentric or something? I feel like I was owed a trigger warning.

    Beldar (fa637a)

  54. Kevin M,

    The Field Poll is interesting. Especially this, which makes perfect sense:

    Voters who say they voted for Schwarzenegger in 2003 prefer Trump over Cruz nearly three to one.

    Dana (0ee61a)

  55. Voters who say they voted for Schwarzenegger in 2003 prefer Trump over Cruz nearly three to one.

    I voted for McClintock in the recall election.

    papertiger (c2d6da)

  56. The Cali polls, Field included, under-represent registered GOP voters. I have significant doubts as to a broad Hispanic GOP voter registration. Remember, Cali is actually tough on giving out GOP ballots to non-registered GOP voters. They tried to get the GOP to remove the restriction, but the Party wisely refused.

    Ed from SFV (3400a5)

  57. #48
    pssst, hey papertiger…

    Megyn Kelly. Carly Fiorina. Michelle Fields. And Cherie Jacobus. (LOL)

    Cruz Supporter (102c9a)

  58. Ugh. 538 preliminarily calling it 91-4 delegate count for Trump over Kasich. Cruz with zero.

    Nothing of significance is changed, in my opinion. Trump on track for ~1,175 1st ballot delegates.

    Ed from SFV (3400a5)

  59. So if Trump claims that he could win NY in a general election, why did so very many more New Yorkers turn out to vote for Clinton than turned out to vote for him? Just askin’.

    Beldar (fa637a)

  60. #48
    pssst, hey papertiger…

    Megyn Kelly. Carly Fiorina. Michelle Fields. And Cherie Jacobus. (LOL)

    Cruz Supporter (102c9a)

    I got this one.

    What are skirts Ted Cruz has hidden behind?

    papertiger (c2d6da)

  61. papertiger, no, those are the skirts who keep Uncle Donald awake at night.

    Cruz Supporter (102c9a)

  62. I voted for McClintock in the recall election.

    Huh. So did I.

    What happened to you?

    Patterico (86c8ed)

  63. In the word cloud around Donald Trump, “Constitution” is in 2-point font.

    The word “liberty” does not even appear.

    Patterico (86c8ed)

  64. you’re going to need larger needles for the voodoo dolls, all this hyperventilation is unhealthy, and doesn’t help cruz very much,

    narciso (732bc0)

  65. 57. Its wise in theoretical practice, but it severely lessens any chance of a orchestrated crossover from D to R by rational but vengeance minded hispanic CA voters (not to say Trump couldn’t counter by having Crips or Bloods, for example, declare R and vote for him). That’s one redeeming quality of IL primaries- I can decide when I get there.

    urbanleftbehind (d3ea16)

  66. About 40% of New York voters in the GOP primary are rejecting New York values.

    Cruz Supporter (102c9a)

  67. Kasich continues to run fourth in a three-man race.

    Beldar (fa637a)

  68. Huh. So did I.

    What happened to you?

    Patterico (86c8ed) — 4/19/2016 @ 8:22 pm

    The L.A. Times story the weekend before the recall election. The actress they quoted, but wouldn’t name, came out on a website. She struck me as very credible.

    But I liked McClintock as the guy who Ted Costa meant to replace Davis with, before Arnold on the Tonight Show.

    papertiger (c2d6da)

  69. The L.A. Times story the weekend before the recall election. The actress they quoted, but wouldn’t name, came out on a website. She struck me as very credible.

    But I liked McClintock as the guy who Ted Costa meant to replace Davis with, before Arnold on the Tonight Show.

    Oh. I was foursquare for McClintock for months, and urged everyone who would listen to vote for him. I think he is the last politician I was actually excited about before Ted Cruz, and for the same reasons.

    California would have been far better off with him.

    Oh well. Hopefully the country doesn’t make the same mistake.

    Patterico (86c8ed)

  70. Turrible exit polling of NY Dems. EPs said HRC would win by 4 -6 pts. She is up 58-42 with 10% uncounted.

    The best actual results of the night show Trump apparently lost Manhattan.

    Ed from SFV (3400a5)

  71. SF: In the Republican primary, Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio and Ben Carson are still on the ballot, in additon to Donald Trump, John Kasich and Ted Cruz. Carson’s home address is given as Alexandria, Virginia.

    Milhouse (87c499) — 4/19/2016 @ 3:21 pm

    Not where I voted. There were only four names on the ballot: the three remaining candidates, plus Carson.

    The material put out by the Board of Elections:

    http://vote.nyc.ny.us/downloads/pdf/documents/boe/2016PresidentialPrimary/2016PresPrimContestListPDF_322016_910am.pdf

    ..must really be bad.

    What you said helps what I heard on the 11 O’Clock news on Channel 2 make sense. They said that Carson was still on the ballot, bt said he wouldn’t get any delegates. I thought: What about Jeb Bush and MArco Rubio? So the answer is, they were not on the ballot. They were showing 0 votes for Ben Carson, so I suppose they just weren’t being reported. I don’t know if when they are repprted whethere that will reduce Trump’s margin.

    Trump was at 60% which is higher than his highest poll numbers (except that those numbers did not include undecided/refused) He still probably will be at above 50% for the state as a whole, and many Congressional districts. About 85% of the precincts are, or were in by 11 O’Clock. They are called Election istricts in New York.

    WCBS Channel 2 said that Kasich was leading in Manhattan through most of the night. Manhattan is not a congressional district, and the congressional districts that parts of Manhattan belong to, take in other places.

    Earlier, they were saying that test for Trump was whether he would get less than 88 to 92 delegates (out of 95) They said Trump had 84, and Kasich had 2 (Cruz had none) That leaves 9 to be decided. (in some cases pbviously it would be known that Trump gets 2 and the question would be does he get all 3 in that congressional district.

    Sammy Finkelman (366297)

  72. Here’s a serious question, for which I promise respectful dialog with any Trumpkin, or anyone else, who attempts to answer it:

    Why do you think we have delegates to a national convention, rather than a direct popular election for the GOP nominee?

    Beldar (fa637a)

  73. Even a couple of Trump’s own grown children didn’t vote for him today. Sad!

    Cruz Supporter (102c9a)

  74. Results from my electoral district: After me only two more Republicans voted, for a total of 12 votes: 6 for Kasich, 4 for Trump, and 2 for Cruz. So there’s one other Cruz voter in my area.

    Milhouse (87c499)

  75. Well done, Milhouse.

    DRJ (15874d)

  76. So we were talking the other thread about frivilous lawsuits, weren’t we?

    Warning: If you click the link within what I’ve linked to look at the oil portrait of the Naked Donald, you cannot un-see what you will see there.

    Beldar (fa637a)

  77. Milhouse, you’re literally holding down the fort in your neck of the woods. Take your vitamins, and remain vigilant at all times.

    Cruz Supporter (102c9a)

  78. I thought about doing a post about that this past weekend, Beldar, but just couldn’t bring myself to do it.

    Dana (0ee61a)

  79. Lemme pre-‘splain something to the Trumpkins:

    I’m not expressing approval of the Trump “portrait.” It’s vulgar and tasteless, utterly typical of the Left (I’m thinking, e.g., of the cartoon of Dubya-as-Dracula sucking the Statue of Liberty’s neck).

    I’m expressing astonishment that the man who wants to be the next President of the United States, in the middle of his first-ever run for office, would take the time and make the effort and punch down so far as to threaten to sue the artist.

    I would bet that 98% of Trump’s supporters think all lawyers are scumbags — one’s called me that here, for example. But Trump is the poster child for the selfish, childish, rich client who funds and enables the very worst breed of lawyer, and he proves that again, and again, and again.

    If it’s weren’t for cognitive dissonance, they’d have no cognition at all.

    Beldar (fa637a)

  80. you might an extra strength neuralizer, there was a crazy character out of chicago, big surprise, who had a fixation during the 2008 campaign

    narciso (732bc0)

  81. Milhouse, thank you for that awesome report (#75). I’m hoisting a drink in your honor.

    Beldar (fa637a)

  82. @ Dana (#79): You made the right call. 😀

    Beldar (fa637a)

  83. Sanders did about where the polls said he would be. He did not win, like he said he would, and he did not sizeably cut down Hillary’s margin. His ads did not help him. I don’t think they made much sense. Much too vague and oer people’s heads, if they meant anything. It probably made a little sense to him, and maybe to people who already felt the Bern.

    With 85% of the vote in, it was Clinton 57% and Sanders 43%. In delegates won, 104 to 85. This victory is not due to Hillary’s great popularity.

    All the big people in New York state politics were by Hillary’s campaign headquarters: de Blasio and Cuomo. Hillary likes to claim she got the most votes cast of votes cast by anyone throughout he primaries – about 10 million.

    Sammy Finkelman (366297)

  84. The same candidate who would allow himself to become distracted from campaigning by suing an artist for depicting him for having, uh, small hands, is the same President who would allow himself to be distracted by being disrespected by Denmark’s Minister of Tourism.
    Naturally, by invading Copenhagen, he would prove that he indeed has, uh, large hands.

    Cruz Supporter (102c9a)

  85. Who writes the questions for the exit polls? I know they’re done by news organizations via some sort of pooling/sharing arrangement, but who picks the questions?

    The reason I ask is that I’m getting thoroughly sick of hearing breathless TV talking heads insist that there’s some special spectacular relevance to the answer to “If no candidate has a majority on the first vote at the convention, should the GOP should nominate the candidate who has the most popular votes or who gets a majority of delegate’s votes?” NOTE: I’m not sure exactly how the question is phrased, so that’s my approximation or blend of how I’ve seen it reported.

    Why not ask, “Do you think the President should be the winner of the national popular vote or the winner of the Electoral College?” We’d get just as predictable — and utterly meaningless — response. Exit polls — not even all of them put together — don’t amend the Constitution. Neither do they excuse a would-be major party nominee from the clear, written, time-hallowed obligation of getting a majority of the convention delegates’ vote.

    All that question does is shill for Trump, on a topic on which he and the MSM have an absolute congruence of interest: He wants to have riots and the convention, and so does the MSM. So they’re working together to gin up this myth of “Trump wuz robbed” if he can’t get a majority before he arrives at the convention.

    Beldar (fa637a)

  86. That ought to have read “riots at the convention.”

    Beldar (fa637a)

  87. Milhouse, which congressional district do you live in, if you don’t mind saying?

    NY-9. My congresscritter is Yvette Clarke, one of the communists in Congress that Allen West famously referred to four years ago.

    Milhouse (87c499)

  88. 42. I don’t think Trump is making it very clear that he was in Chicago, discussing a plan to build the world’s tallest building, at around 2,000 feet, on September 11, 2001. The meeting broke up when they watched the aftermath of the attack on television. A few weeks later, Trump’s people came back with a proposal for a 900 foot tower. The Trump International Hotel and Tower in Chicago was eventually completed in 2009 at 1,389 feet, down in the mid to late teens on the tallest building list.

    Yes, he said 7-11.

    In a different interview, Ted Cruz made Chris Christie the Governor of New York. New Jersey and New York are practically the same thimng, right? Hugh Hewitt, I think it was, didn’t notice or let it pass.

    Sammy Finkelman (366297)

  89. So if Trump claims that he could win NY in a general election, why did so very many more New Yorkers turn out to vote for Clinton than turned out to vote for him? Just askin’.

    Well, he could say that was because they’re registered Democrats, and if given a choice between her and him they’d support him. He might even be right, for all I know. They are his fellow-Democrats, after all.

    Milhouse (87c499)

  90. millhouse, how many New York conservatives were ineligible to vote for Cruz because they were registered Independent or Conservative? And how hard is it to switch your party designation? This would seem to be a nobrainer if you supported constitutional government.

    BobStewartatHome (a52abe)

  91. #91 BobStewart,

    I think they had to change their registration by last October.
    Trump shill Sean Hannity proudly boasts that he’s registered as a member of the Conservative Party, rather than the GOP. He says it’s because that’s the party which is closest to his ideology.
    Uh, that’s really wonderful, Sean, you rocket surgeon, but that means you didn’t even get to vote in the GOP primary today. So, then what ‘good’ does it do to be a registered member of the Conservative Party if they never have a viable candidate for President? (Facepalm.)

    Cruz Supporter (102c9a)

  92. Milhouse, thank you: Your logic is impeccable there (#90), and well-expressed.

    May I follow up: You’re hypothesizing, essentially, a conservative registered Democrat who would prefer Hillary to Bernie, and so therefore showed up today to try to eliminate Bernie; but who, given the choice in the general (which was denied to this voter today by the long-lead-time registration change rules in NY), would pick Trump over Hillary. Right?

    I don’t doubt that there are some such creatures. But I don’t trust my impressions of New York to begin to guess how many. Do you think there are enough such to make up the huge gap? Because Trump won fewer votes tonight than Bernie, as well.

    Beldar (fa637a)

  93. Bernie had flown on to State College, PA, to campaign there, but left his press entourage on the runway and went back home to Burlington, VT instead.

    Is he worn out? Does he need fresh clothes?

    If I were Hillary, I’d make a short list of what I thought were Bernie’s most important “asks” that she, in turn, could swallow.

    For instance: “#1: When we ‘fix’ Obamacare, we’ll offer a ‘single payer’ (i.e., government-funded) option, which we all know will immediately morph into nationalized healthcare for all.”

    They call a joint press conference, they say they sat down and broke bread, they realized they actually did agree on this important list of principles — “The Chappaqua Manifesto,” they can call it — and they announce that he’s dropping out for the good of the Democratic Party, but she’s incorporating the Manifesto into the Democratic platform. Hillary enthusiastically announces that Bernie Sanders will head up the Clinton Campaign’s selection and vetting process for Hillary’s Veep pick, sorta like Cheney did for Dubya.

    Bernie does a victory lap, contributes his cash on-hand to the DNC, and Hillary takes a badly needed week-long vacation before focusing her exclusive fire on the GOP (mostly on Trump) until November.

    Beldar (fa637a)

  94. I’m not expressing approval of the Trump “portrait.” It’s vulgar and tasteless, utterly typical of the Left (I’m thinking, e.g., of the cartoon of Dubya-as-Dracula sucking the Statue of Liberty’s neck).

    Well I am expressing approval. Yes, it’s vulgar and tasteless, and thus exactly the right medium in which to criticize a man known primarily for his vulgarity and tastelessness. And when he put the subject of his anatomy directly on the national stage this commentary (which was painted earlier) became even more appropriate.

    I’m expressing astonishment that the man who wants to be the next President of the United States, in the middle of his first-ever run for office, would take the time and make the effort and punch down so far as to threaten to sue the artist.

    I’m not so appalled by the concept of “punching down”. I’m appalled that he would make such a blatantly frivolous threat in the first place, and that he found a lawyer willing to risk his bar card on it. Isn’t barratry a crime? Why has the lawyer who sent that letter not been charged with it?

    Milhouse (87c499)

  95. One of the Trump boys compared the GOP nominations process to “Communist China” tonight. Hannity smiles and nods.

    Beldar (fa637a)

  96. millhouse, how many New York conservatives were ineligible to vote for Cruz because they were registered Independent or Conservative? And how hard is it to switch your party designation? This would seem to be a nobrainer if you supported constitutional government

    I have no idea how many, but I would imagine more conservatives are registered as Democrats than as either independents or Conservatives. Because for most offices the D primary is the real election. I chose to forfeit the ability to vote in D primaries because most of the time I don’t care which D wins, they’re all equally loathesome. But if I lived a few miles away where they have halfway-decent DINOs running in the D primaries, I would probably have registered D to support them.

    Milhouse (87c499)

  97. Oh, and the deadline to switch parties is 25 days before the previous year’s general election date. So 9-Oct-2015.

    Milhouse (87c499)

  98. May I follow up: You’re hypothesizing, essentially, a conservative registered Democrat who would prefer Hillary to Bernie, and so therefore showed up today to try to eliminate Bernie; but who, given the choice in the general (which was denied to this voter today by the long-lead-time registration change rules in NY), would pick Trump over Hillary. Right?

    Actually I was hypothesizing a liberal registered Democrat who prefers Trump to Clinton, but Clinton to Sanders. Trump is a Democrat, after all.

    Milhouse (87c499)

  99. We need Bernie to stay in. Indiana is a wide open primary state. There are zero significant down-ballot races for Dems there. Nothing to stop HRC voters from crossing over. Ugh.

    Ed from SFV (3400a5)

  100. Now it’s off to other states in the Northeast: Connecticut, Rhode Island, Pennsylvania, Maryland and Delaware. New Jersey votes at the end, in June. (June 7) North Dakota is also included for the Republcans, but there will be no presidential preference vote.

    New Jersey is actually the biggest single package for the Republicans that day: 51 delegates, winner take all statewide. California has separate winner take all statewide and by Congressional distrct – just 13 statewide and 53×3 = 159 by congressional district. Montana (29) and South Dakota are also winner take all statewide. Both states have only one congressional district. New Mexico has 24 satewide, but proportional with athreshhold at 15%. The Democrats have it proportioal everywhere with a threshold of 15%.

    In between April 26 and June 7, there is Indiana (May 3) It hasn’t changed its primary date since before 1968 and the same thing goes for California and I think for Wisconsin.

    After Indiana, there is West Virginia (May 10) – and for the Republicans also Nebraska. Then comes Oregon (May 17) and Washington State (May 24) for he Republicans. The Democrats did Washington State on Saturday March 26, and Nebraska on Saturday March 5. Actually it’s wrong to give a date for an Oregon or Washington State election, because they are both 100% vote-by-mail states.

    There’s then two weeks till the final five or six primaries.

    The very last thing actually is a Democratic party caucus in the District of Columbia on June 14. The Republicans had their caucus, which was actually a convention, at one central location in Washington, D.C., on Saturday, March 12, Marco Rubio got most of the delegates. That was 3 days before the Florida and some other primaries (Ohio, North Carolina, Illinois and Missouri)

    Sammy Finkelman (366297)

  101. Technically the lead time to switch parties is only 32 days; but switches are only processed once a year, 7 days after the general election (if any). Last year that was 10-Nov. Any change that was filed by 9-Oct was processed on 10-Nov. Any change filed after 9-Oct-2015 will be processed on 15-Nov-2016.

    Milhouse (87c499)

  102. #96 Beldar,

    So Trump World freaked out when Cruz said “New York Values,” but Trump Jr turns around and effectively says the GOP has “Communist China Values.”
    As the guys in those old Guinness beer commercials used to say, “Brilliant!”

    Cruz Supporter (102c9a)

  103. Sure, Trump had a good night in his home town, but how is he going to win the 53.4% of outstanding delegates he needs with PA, WA, OR, CT, NJ, and CA standing in his way?

    Ted Cruz is going to kill it in those states!

    Cruz FTW (f2eaa4)

  104. Campaigning in Brooklyn NY for Cruz in Yiddish.

    Based on this map it appears that the Yiddish-speaking neighborhoods in Brooklyn did indeed go for Cruz.

    Milhouse (87c499)

  105. If every registered Conservative in NY had been able to vote in the NY primary, and there was a 100% turnout of them voting for Cruz- Trump would have still won NY. In the most hotly contested primary of most people’s lifetime, in both parties, with NYs primary vote actually counting for something, for the first time in more then a generation, with front page news coverage every day for weeks, only about 1/3 of NYs registered Republicans and Democrats showed up at the polls. Wonder what election day in November will turn out.

    Gospace (f38eb5)

  106. @ Milhouse (#99): Thanks for the clarification; I understand and agree with it.

    @ CS (#104): Trump seems pretty committed to being frenemies with Priebus and the RNC — and indeed, with a very broad segment of the convention delegation who are not necessarily fans of the Washington GOP establishment, but who’ve been activists at the grass-roots level in previous campaign cycles and therefore know how the gears work and the levers function. Rude conduct and insults which Trump directs toward them, to the cheers of his core supporters (who will easily give him a pass for anything and everything), these party stalwarts may find offensive indeed. His current convention strategy seems to acknowledge that everything hinges on the first ballot, and if he shows up in Cleveland still short of 1237, he’s going to try to make up the deficit through intimidation and threats up front, before that first ballot. He seems to be writing off his chances for subsequent ballots already, which I suppose is realistic. At least it’s an excuse to “Let Trump be Trump.”

    Beldar (fa637a)

  107. Well fewer than 900,000 New Yorkers voted tonight, and Trump will get almost all of the 95 delegates the GOP apportions to New York, an allocation based on New York’s third-place ranking among state populations in the 2010 census (they’ve since slipped to fourth).

    Wisconsin, the 20th most populous state, had only 42 delegates to award. In its primary, however, Cruz won 531,129 of the 1,072,699 total votes cast in the GOP primary, to Trump’s 386,370. Trump’s total in New York looks unlikely to exceed Cruz’ Wisconsin total, despite the spectacular difference in state sizes and delegate hauls.

    I’m not whining about any of this, and neither will the Cruz campaign. This is just a result of certain structural features of the existing system, part of which is that blue-state Republicans end up getting disproportionate voting power.

    But it’s another example of how Trump — in his and his Trumpkins’ constant whining and moaning and cries of foul-play — completely ignores the many, many ways in which the existing system and rules have disproportionately helped him.

    Beldar (fa637a)

  108. Does anyone know why the GOP gives each state delegates according to its population, regardless of how strong or weak the Republican vote is there? Wouldn’t it make more sense to make each state’s delegation proportional to the number of votes the GOP candidate got in that state at the last presidential election? And for the state to allocate those delegates among its CDs according to a similar formula? Assuming, that is, that they still want primaries in the first place, which I don’t understand either.

    Milhouse (87c499)

  109. Cruz won ~800K more votes in his home state, and ended up with about a dozen more delegates. Fixed!!!!! Stolen election!!!!!!

    Ed from SFV (3400a5)

  110. I hope Peter King is run over by a train. Another hack whose grave will be yellow.

    mg (31009b)

  111. Cruz and his political future are coming to crossroads. Can he win his senate seat again? Run for gov. of Texas? The establishment has used him and has no future use for him. What does he do?

    mg (31009b)

  112. I am not a Donald Trump fan, but if he reverts to form and starts calling Ted Cruz “Mr. Third Place,” I’m going to have me some shadenfreude.

    carlitos (c24ed5)

  113. Cruz won ~800K more votes in his home state, and ended up with about a dozen more delegates. Fixed!!!!! Stolen election!!!!!!

    Ed from SFV (3400a5) — 4/20/2016 @ 1:04 am

    A WSJ editorial (prior to yesterday’s vote) points out that Trump got 45% of the delegates so far, while receiving 37% of the votes cast.

    Gerald A (945582)

  114. He keeps his Senate seat at worst (though I think a Pres. Trump shuts Texans out of his administration out of spite) and runs in 2020 as the happy warrior against 1 of 3 really old disheveled looking Democrats.

    urbanleftbehind (95e3cf)

  115. He keeps his Senate seat at worst (though I think a Pres. Trump shuts Texans out of his administration out of spite) in a Hillary administration and runs in 2020 as the happy warrior against 1 of 3 really old disheveled looking Democrats. One of his first acts as President in 2021 is to commute Trump’s 30-year prison sentence for fraud, racketeering and tax evasion on compassionate grounds due to Trump’s ill health.

    nk (dbc370)

  116. I’m going to go with keeping slave interests from buying Illinois and Indiana in the election of 1860.

    papertiger (c2d6da)

  117. CruzAmerica has not lost yet. There’s many a slip twixt the cup and the lip and July 18 is an eternity away.

    nk (dbc370)

  118. 102. Milhouse (87c499) — 4/19/2016 @ 9:47 pm

    Any change that was filed by 9-Oct was processed on 10-Nov. Any change filed after 9-Oct-2015 will be processed on 15-Nov-2016.

    Does that mean someoe stays in the old party, if they were previously registered in a party, throughout the next year, till after the next November election? I am not sure that’s right. INobody seems to know New York State election law. The only way to find out, maybe, is to try things out and see what happens.

    Sammy Finkelman (366297)

  119. 109. Milhouse (87c499) — 4/20/2016 @ 12:41 am

    Does anyone know why the GOP gives each state delegates according to its population, regardless of how strong or weak the Republican vote is there?

    I don’t know why, but both parties seem to do that, adjusting it mildly for recent electoral success or office holders. This probably requires some historical research. In the days of the Democratic one-party south, there were always Republican delegations at national conventions from those states. They were actually mostly recipients of patronage.

    It’s actually not really related to population, but more to Electoral votes, with small states getting a lot of extra votes. But both parties give delegations to territories which cast no Electoral votes.

    Wouldn’t it make more sense to make each state’s delegation proportional to the number of votes the GOP candidate got in that state at the last presidential election? And for the state to allocate those delegates among its CDs according to a similar formula?

    I am not sure what would make sense. I am not even sure what they are trying to do. It’s like every vote is almost as equally possible to get.

    Dividing the number of delegates within a state equally among CDs ignores where Republicans get votes. Sure, they want to leave some hope, and not write off all places they lose, but some of these places will not get many Republican votes till there’s a whole revolution in politics.

    The effect is to make some votes count much more than others.

    Assuming, that is, that they still want primaries in the first place, which I don’t understand either.

    Well, what else? A permanent college of cardinals?

    This kind of thing does stop people from forming splinter parties. And a splinter party in one geographical areaa might go on to compete in some other place.

    Sammy Finkelman (366297)

  120. Any change that was filed by 9-Oct was processed on 10-Nov. Any change filed after 9-Oct-2015 will be processed on 15-Nov-2016.

    Does that mean someoe stays in the old party, if they were previously registered in a party, throughout the next year, till after the next November election?

    Yes. If a person filed their party change on 10-Oct-2015, it will be processed on 15-Nov-2016. Changes filed after 14-Oct-2016 will be processed on 14-Nov-2017.

    Milhouse (87c499)

  121. Assuming, that is, that they still want primaries in the first place, which I don’t understand either.

    Well, what else? A permanent college of cardinals?

    The same way any other organization handles its internal elections, and how political parties do it in most countries. To get a voice you have to join a local branch, pay a membership fee, show up to meetings. Branch members elect deleates to a local convention which elects delegates to the state convention (or to a county convention which elects delegates to the state convention) which elects delegates to the national convention. All delegates at each level are trusted to decide for themselves how to vote on nominations or any other issue.

    Milhouse (87c499)

  122. Milhouse (87c499) — 4/20/2016 @ 7:23 am

    To get a voice you have to join a local branch, pay a membership fee, show up to meetings. Branch members elect deleates to a local convention which elects delegates to the state convention (or to a county convention which elects delegates to the state convention) which elects delegates to the national convention. All delegates at each level are trusted to decide for themselves how to vote on nominations or any other issue

    The Michigan Democratic Party tried something like that in 1988 – only dues paying members could vote – (because Michigan had not paryy registation) and nobody liked it. I think it produced a delegation for Jesse Jackson.

    Such a situation somewhat works when parties are more fluid, and there are many of them and you have proportional representation. Then the parties can be tightly controlled by insiders. Someone has a dispute or disagreement? They form a separate party.

    The people running the parties don’t want to break up and re-form them. Of course the problem this year, and actually in general, is that the parties are too strong, and it is not possible to form new ones and get them taken seriously.

    Sammy Finkelman (a5988d)

  123. A majority of the American people do not like the potential nominees of the two major parties.

    The Wall Street Journal notes in an editorial today that in the NBC News/WSJ poll there is a question there about whether someone has an overall favorable or unfavorable impression of someone. The choices are positive, somewhat positive, neutral, somewhat negative or negative. Now this can be a not very intense feeling but it shows the direction, and probably reflects the desire to vote for or not vote for someone.

    Hillary Clinton’s negatives have steadily risen since early 2013. I don’t know why they were so low in early 2013 – maybe they thought she wasn’t doing anything significant in her capacity as Secretary of State, or pretty much anything at all for which someone should have a negative impression. And they maybe didn’t realize whe was going to run for president again.

    The percentage of the people polled who had a negative or somewhat negative view of Hillary Clinton has steadily risen from 25% in early 2013 to 40% in early 2015, dropping to 35% and then rising steadily to 50% in February 2016 and to where it is now at 56%. Only 32% have a positive view of her.

    But Donald Trump is at 65% negative. Ted Cruz is at 49%, but he’s less well known, with 21% saying neutral.

    Sammy Finkelman (a5988d)

  124. Such a situation somewhat works when parties are more fluid, and there are many of them and you have proportional representation.

    It works fine in other countries with party systems equally fixed and rigid. A political party is a private organization, not a public institution. There’s no reason outsiders should get to tell it what to do.

    Milhouse (87c499)

  125. Bloomberg collects Trump’s hand gestures from a recent speech in Buffalo. I think everyone will enjoy it, even Trump fans.

    DRJ (15874d)


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