Patterico's Pontifications

3/18/2016

Stage One Thinking Brings Us a Trump Victory

Filed under: General — Patterico @ 7:35 am



Allahpundit:

Kasich staying in, if Trende’s guesstimates are right, is likely the difference between Trump as nominee and Cruz as nominee. It’s a 170-delegate difference to Trump’s totals alone. And to think, like most of the other anti-Trumpers out there, I was dumb enough to celebrate on Tuesday night when Kasich won Ohio, denying Trump a 66-delegate windfall even though it guaranteed that he’d stay in the race and continue to do terrible damage. That’s the sort of strategic shortsightedness that’s crippled Trump’s opponents for the past nine months. In a way, we deserve him.

Whaddya mean “we,” pardner? Here’s me from March 9, in a post titled Why Rubio and Kasich Must Be Crushed:

Thomas Sowell likes to talk about “Stage One” thinking, in which people seek a certain result (Stage One) and fail to think through the consequences (Stage Two and beyond). I think that people who seek to have Rubio win Florida are Stage One thinkers. It will deny Trump delegates! Yay! Helps keep Trump from getting a majority! Yay!

This is Stage One thinking, and last night illustrates the problem. Ted Cruz would have probably won a majority of the vote in Idaho last night and swept the delegates there, but for Rubio. Without Kasich and Rubio, Cruz would have had a chance at Michigan and Mississippi as well.

With no Kasich or Rubio, Cruz would be the delegate leader.

A loss in their home states might be what we need to kick Rubio and Kasich out of this car. If they win, the result in Stage Two is that they’ll keep going, and Rubio especially will continue to suck away votes that should be going to Cruz.

The only problem with the Trende analysis cited by Allahpundit is that it gives 70 percent of Kasich’s voters to Cruz. I’m not sure that’s right. People who vote Kasich are basically Democrats, aren’t they? That’s certainly how I see them. If they didn’t have the Democrat Kasich to vote for, wouldn’t a lot of them go to the Democrat Trump?

But if Trende is right, then with hindsight, it is clear that we needed to swallow the bitter pill of giving Trump the delegates in Ohio and Florida, just to get Rubio and Kasich the hell out of the race. Yet Rubio encouraged his supporters to vote for Kasich in Ohio. Thanks, Marco! Now Kasich is going to hang on all the way to Cleveland, an albatross necklace for Cruz that will hand the election to Trump. Unless something changes.

Stage Two thinking. It’s not just for economists any more.

157 Responses to “Stage One Thinking Brings Us a Trump Victory”

  1. Calling Kasich a Democrat is a sign of one of our biggest problems in this nation which is a lack of proportion] and perspective. I don’t like John Kasich but his entire career screams middle of the road Republican not Democrat. The world isn’t made up of just “People Who Think Just Like Me” and Democrats.

    mark johnson (095751)

  2. The people will vote how they want to vote, and feel good about it afterwards. Tired of being manipulated by “processy” politicians is what this election is all about.

    nk (dbc370)

  3. As for Rubio helping Kasich in Ohio, he couldn’t even help himself in his home state.

    nk (dbc370)

  4. hi Mr. Trump how you liking your odds for to be the nominee?

    hi happy! I feel really good cause we’re getting lots of delegates and votes and we keep running out of yard signs!

    ok good good so glad to hear you’re doing well – just wanted to touch base! Good luck in Arizona!

    Thanks, happy!

    happyfeet (a037ad)

  5. Battle lines have been drawn. We’ll need all the help we can muster.

    Colonel Haiku (ac2a78)

  6. Oh, please, pretty please, Mr. Trump, help McCain lose the primary in Arizona, and I will not say mean things about your hair for one full day.

    nk (dbc370)

  7. A middle of the road republican is a democrat. It just shows how far left the democrat party has gone when you consider him middle of the road.

    He talks about his dad so much as a mailman. Well his dad was also a democrat. Just like he is.

    NJRob (a07d2e)

  8. help McCain lose the primary in Arizona

    yes yes yes please please please

    happyfeet (a037ad)

  9. If Kasich is a Republican, then I suppose Bloomberg was too. Having an (R) doesn’t mean much these days. Kasich overrode his own Republican house to implement Obamacare expansion (the real fiscally crushing part). Susan Collins voted against Obamacare for goodness’ sake (I guess she’s far right now). In the *old* days we had a Hastert rule and similar ideas. Are there *any* criteria for being a Republican anymore? “Lack of proportion”? Really?

    tom (f05e27)

  10. No, Bloomberg was never a Republican. The only reason he ran as a R in 2001 was that the D primary was already fully booked, with four very strong candidates who’d spent years building their machines. I doubt he could have won the D primary, but even if he could it would have been expensive. Meanwhile on the R side the only other candidate was Herman Badillo, who didn’t have much of anything. So he decided to take the easy and cheap way and run in that. If the D primary had seemed winnable, and there were more than token competition on the R side, he’d likely have run as a D.

    Milhouse (87c499)

  11. I have so much contempt for people who supported Rubio, cheered him for staying in after Super Tuesday, snarked down at the polls that showed him getting crushed in Florida… and then have the #NeverTrump hashtags all over the place.

    I like them as people, normally respect their intelligence, but it has been clear for a long time that it’s Cruz or Trump. Those are the choices, and wanting a different choice would not make it so. One of my friends did out the math: if Rubio had dropped out earlier, Cruz would be leading the delegate counts. But there are things that are blindingly obvious to some people that other people need to learn the hard way. I’m just furious that they learned by harming everyone, not just themselves.

    bridget (37b281)

  12. one of our biggest problems in this nation which is a lack of proportion and perspective

    That.

    WTP (d553bf)

  13. Notice how quickly true believers will often resort to stage 1 thinking to justify their passionate support (of Ted Cruz). Not long ago the prospect of a Cruz/Rubio ticket was highly touted as the panacea to Trump’s march to the GOP nomination. Stage 1 in flashing neon lights.

    Never mind that Rubio was the leading salesman for the Gang of 8’s amnesty plan. Never mind that Rubio was so unpopular in his home state of Florida that he couldn’t win an election for dogcatcher. Never mind that Rubio was demolished on the debate stage by Chris Christie, never mind that Rubio was on TV spewing ignorant prattle and reducing himself to a potty-mouth adolescent.

    Never mind all that so long as Rubio represented a straw that might keep Cruz’s prospects alive. There you have it: Stage 1 thinking is all it’s limited glory.

    ropelight (dec58b)

  14. Whether it’s Stage 1or Stage 2, the problem is that the operative term “thinking” doesn’t play much of a factor in many folks actions.

    FGM (400756)

  15. stay calm and trump on

    happyfeet (a037ad)

  16. “Rubio was on TV spewing ignorant prattle and reducing himself to a potty-mouth adolescent.”

    Self-awareness of Trumpkins is approaching negative infinity.

    JD (cd1d6f)

  17. Republicans have been progressives in many ways for over a century. The vile fruits of LBJ’s Great Society have cast an unflattering light on progressive notions, and we now have a wing of the Republican Party that is reaching back to the principles of our founders for solutions to the problems created by the insanity that holds sway in elite circles. Kasich and Trump are unwitting, instinctive progressives with little understanding of the unintended costs of their “good intentions”. Cruz and modern conservatives are a throw backs to better times, times when the government focused on the rule of law and the protection of our borders, lives, and property. The Democrats are aggressive socialists, trending to violent communists. The Democrat beneficiaries of governmental largess are willing to take the fight to the streets with actions like the occupation of the Wisconsin state house by the government unions, both teachers and bureaucrats, with the tacit support of the police. They explicitly reject the principles of our founders and thus Constitutional protections such as the separation of powers and the Bill of Rights. Modern Democrats are not concerned about equal treatment under the law. They want the government to favor selected groups at the expense of those who have weaker connections with the powerful elites who control the Federal Leviathan.

    The majority of elected Republicans, and all the senior leaders are in the progressive camp. The majority of Republican voters are in the conservative camp. Trump and Kasich are successful when they can gather enough votes from Independents and Democrats who still cling unwittingly to progressive notions.

    The country is fundamentally a two party enterprise. The failures of central planning implemented by control of the vast, extra-legal, regulatory apparatus will become more and more apparent, even if the media does its best to obfuscate the fundamental issues. The recent poisoning of the citizens of Trent by the city’s government and the poisoning of rivers in Colorado, New Mexico, and Arizona by the EPA’s bungling of a mine tailing cleanup project are examples of the sort of problems that we will experience with greater frequency as our unaccountable bureaucrats stumble while attempting to perform poorly defined duties. So ultimately, the progressive leaning portion of our electorate will have to choose between communism or Constitutional government. In the meantime, things will be ugly. Which isn’t to say the final outcome won’t be uglier yet.

    BobStewartatHome (a52abe)

  18. Never mind all that so long as Rubio represented a straw that might keep Cruz’s prospects alive. There you have it: Stage 1 thinking is all it’s limited glory.

    ropelight (dec58b) — 3/18/2016 @ 10:01 am

    The Cruz/Rubio proposal would have gained Cruz FL, put two Hispanic men on the ticket, and would have increased appeal with women and youth voters. Had those things happened, then the primary is completely different today and stage 2 would be set. Also IIRC, noted was an expiration date where that opportunity was possible, but please, ignore all that and pretend otherwise.

    Pons Asinorum (49e2e8)

  19. they’re not super hispanic really just kinda sorta hispanic

    happyfeet (a037ad)

  20. Mr. Feets, in the context of FL, it would have work out.

    Pons Asinorum (49e2e8)

  21. …twice.

    Pons Asinorum (49e2e8)

  22. #18, PS, in Florida Rubio won his home county Miami/Dade, that’s it, not another single county in the entire state (1 out of 67). Rubio could have signed on to 10 Ted Cruz tickets and still not won the state. About the only ticket that could win Florida with Marco Rubio in the VP spot would be if he ran with Ronald Reagan.

    Rubio was finished in Florida when he joined the Gang of 8. That’s the key, ignore it and you’ll keep making the same or similar foolish mistakes. Politics ain’t beanbag and once Rubio betrayed the Florida voters who put him in office it was over for him, completely, over.

    ropelight (dec58b)

  23. pon
    pon
    pon

    happyfeet (a037ad)

  24. Raphael should have annointed Ted with Trump Annointing Oil.

    Its the most luxurious annoiting oil in the world.

    Regular olive oil is good enough for prime minister of Israel or Italy.

    pinandpuller (928ad9)

  25. Rubio is so unpopular in Florida that he’s already announced he’s not running for reelection to the Senate and he won’t be a candidate for governor. He’s going to spend more time with his family and look for opportunities in the private sector.

    Translation: GOP voters in Florida despise candidates who tell them one thing during the campaign and then turn around a do the opposite once they’re in office. That’s what Rubio did, he strongly opposed illegal immigration during the campaign and no sooner did he get to Washington DC than he became the face of amnesty.

    OTOH it’s too bad a promising career was cut short so quickly, OTOH it’s an object lesson in character.

    ropelight (dec58b)

  26. lil roob roob’s gonna anoint Mr. Cruz with his special oils very soon

    happyfeet (a037ad)

  27. Been saying it for months- MAKE BOOK: Trump/Kasich vs. Clinton/Castro.

    Trump wins w/2.6% of popular vote. Pragmatism ‘trumps’ideology. And all will be right w/t world.

    DCSCA (a343d5)

  28. Not Rubio, but Cruz and Rubio. Maybe it would have worked, maybe not, but your original contention that it was short sided is in error.

    Yes, Rubio made a mistake, but he does not have a 20+ year history of supporting liberal causes.

    But you and happy have fun.

    Pons Asinorum (a00ff7)

  29. To think, at the beginning of this process, I thought, candidate-wise, we had an embarrassment of riches. Now I’m thinking we’ve had an embarrassment of embarrassments.

    Everybody likes to complain about the process, but it does a great job of letting us see who these individuals really are. Not exactly the best and the brightest, are they?

    On another topic, I’ve been thinking that I wouldn’t find Trump nearly as repulsive if Cruz hadn’t been in the race. It bothers me that Trump has blocked Cruz; without Cruz, would I be so bothered if he’d blocked Rubio? The contrast between Trump and the rest isn’t nearly as strong as between Trump and Cruz. Maybe what I really hate about Trump is that he is preventing the nomination of my beloved Felito.

    ThOR (a52560)

  30. Stage 0 thinking – Trump gets trounced by Hillary and Bernie in general election polling. So your “victories” are Pyrrhic.

    JD (34f761)

  31. Pons – they aren’t thinking, they are emoting.

    JD (34f761)

  32. #13 ropelight,

    Rubio never said anything “potty-mouth” and why are you pretending that anything allegedly “potty mouth” would even offend you?
    He told some funny jokes at the Orange Toupee’s expense. The punchline about the size of Donnie’s hands is that “you can’t trust people like that.”
    Your candidate bragged about the size of his own junk in a presidential debate. And if you really are “offended” by potty-mouth adolescent talk, wait until the transcripts of his many past appearances on Howard Stern’s show are released later in the year.

    Cruz Supporter (102c9a)

  33. #27, PS, wake up. Rubio would have dragged down Cruz support in Florida. Look at the results. Only a few years ago Rubio’s support was so solid statewide he was able to beat a popular Governor Charlie Crist for an open Senate seat.

    But once he joined the Gang of 8 all that support vanished like a love letter written in wet sand when the next wave comes crashing ashore. Rubio didn’t simply make a mistake he committed suicide.

    Cruz didn’t want that albatross around his neck, and he was smart enough to keep his distance from the toxic Rubio, but not the political masterminds here. Fools rush in where angels fear to tread.

    And, this isn’t fun, it’s the most serious business this nation faces. We’ve had 8 years of an enemy of the people in the White House. Now is the time for all good men to come to the aid of their country, and that means putting their petty differences aside and doing what’s best for the nation.

    ropelight (dec58b)

  34. With all the Democrat cross-over voting in the primaries, I’m having trouble believing Trump will be trounced by either Hill or Bern.

    Back in ’88, the Democratic nominating process drove all the candidates far to the left, leaving plenty of running room for Bush Sr. Or the way moderate Democrats fled from McGovern back in ’72. Both Dukakis and McGovern were trounced by relatively weak Republicans. I could easily see the same thing happening again.

    ThOR (a52560)

  35. #25 ropelight,

    Rubio announced a year ago that he wasn’t running for re-election to the Senate. And as a Florida resident, you should know that FL law forbids a person from running concurrently for two federal offices (President and US Senate.)
    It has nothing to do with his second-place finish in the FL primary.

    Cruz Supporter (102c9a)

  36. Careful ThOR, independent thinking is likely to get your name on the enemies list around here.

    ropelight (dec58b)

  37. “Now is the time for all good men to come to the aid of their country, and that means putting their petty differences aside and doing what’s best for the nation.”

    According to ropelight, that means rallying behind the one, and only, alleged Republican that Hillary AND Bernie whip in polls, the one alleged Republican that has some of the highest negatives since the inception of polling.

    JD (34f761)

  38. No, JD, it means not going so far out on a limb that you can’t get back to the safety of solid support. It means not being such a damn nasty jackass that you’re responsible for driving Conservatives so far apart they can’t eventually unite behind a GOP nominee and go forward to defeat the Democrats in November.

    You’ve lost sight of the goal, you’re focusing on a single objective when the prize can only be won if we work together. You’re shortsighted animus is making that impossible. You’re electing Hillary.

    ropelight (dec58b)

  39. we have to win one for the gipper

    happyfeet (a037ad)

  40. Funny all the Rubio hate and he still might have a better chance one day of POTUS than either Cruz or Trump.

    Just saying … and Kasich is a JFK Democrat/ FDR Democrat in every sense.

    Rodney King's Spirit (a089dc)

  41. Funny all the Rubio hate and he still might have a better chance one day of POTUS than either Cruz or Trump.

    Not if it was up to Florida voters.

    ropelight (dec58b)

  42. There are a lot of legacy Democrats – those voters who loved Truman, or Kennedy, or even Johnson – who no longer fit in the party, but endure because they are invested in being a Democrat. My parents, along with many of my aunts, uncles and other older relatives fall into this category. Life is tough for them. Sometimes the voting options on the Democratic side are so thin, there is a temptation to defect. I think this is one of those times.

    If you were a moderate Democrat – I once was – who would you vote for? How would you even decide? I think I’d pick the nice old fool over the mean-spirited conniver, though it’s not a choice I’d enjoy making.

    ThOR (a52560)

  43. Pons – they aren’t thinking, they are emoting.

    They are two peas in a pod. You would think that ropeleight, being a regular commenter here, would be most concerned that happyfeet is in agreement with him, lol.

    Pons Asinorum (49e2e8)

  44. PS, wake up. Rubio would have dragged down Cruz support in Florida. Look at the results.

    ropelight (dec58b) — 3/18/2016 @ 12:18 pm

    Okay, let’s look at them: Rubio got 17% of the vote.

    In a combined ticket, that certainly would have increased Cruz’s vote — deny that all you want. Just maybe, he might have taken the state. Who knows, whole new race.

    Cruz didn’t want that albatross around his neck, and he was smart enough to keep his distance from the toxic Rubio, but not the political masterminds here. Fools rush in where angels fear to tread.

    Maybe so, but he is not in a great position to win outright now, is he “genius.”

    And, this isn’t fun, it’s the most serious business this nation faces. We’ve had 8 years of an enemy of the people in the White House. Now is the time for all good men to come to the aid of their country, and that means putting their petty differences aside and doing what’s best for the nation.

    You’re the one voting for Trump.

    Tump has been supporting liberal causes all his adult life — until recently — in his 60’s, but don’t let that bother you. Right now the Vote is between Clinton, Trump and Cruz: two life long Democrats and a conservative. You’ve been suckered.

    You do the right thing.

    Pons Asinorum (49e2e8)

  45. I will PA, I will, the question is will you.

    ropelight (dec58b)

  46. Nevada Trumpets Uptown Funk

    papertiger (c2d6da)

  47. It’s my fault Trump can’t beat Hillary or Bernie. HAHALOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL

    JD (34f761)

  48. #39, RKS, it isn’t hatred of Rubio. It’s the deep disappointment in a man once highly trusted, supported with time, effort, and contributions, who betrayed that trust at his first opportunity.

    Rubio fooled us once, and shame on him. But he couldn’t fool us twice and now he’s paid the the 2nd highest high price for treachery. And, he did it to himself.

    ropelight (dec58b)

  49. Ropelight,

    I admire you for your sticktoitiveness.

    ThOR (a52560)

  50. JD, is there no end to your dishonesty? I said you were dividing conservatives to the point they couldn’t unite to defeat Hillary. I once considered you a man of integrity, your lack of character shows how wrong I was.

    ropelight (dec58b)

  51. ThOR, re-read my comment addressed to you at #35. You don’t want to be in the same boat with me just now.

    ropelight (dec58b)

  52. i’ll unite for Mr. Trump if he gets picked to be the nominee

    happyfeet (a037ad)

  53. Yes, happy, but would you unite behind Ted Cruz if he gets the GOP nod? I would.

    ropelight (dec58b)

  54. It’s my fault Trump can’t beat Hillary or Bernie. HAHALOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL

    JD (34f761) — 3/18/2016 @ 1:22 pm

    It is you fault JD, I used my magic JD-decoder ring to got the super secret message you sent on the galactic net and it did completely changed my mind.

    Pons Asinorum (49e2e8)

  55. Yes, happy, but would you unite behind Ted Cruz if he gets the GOP nod? I would.

    How would that work roplight, because of the Canadian thing and all?

    Pons Asinorum (49e2e8)

  56. #53: …to got = …to get

    hahaha

    Pons Asinorum (49e2e8)

  57. yes yes i would unite if Ted won

    it’s just I’m starting to think that’s not likely

    happyfeet (a037ad)

  58. Ropelight – that is exactly what you said. I am dividing therefore I am at fault. Which is lies piled on lies stacked on lies. I have nothing to do with Trumps historic negatives. I have nothing to do with his inability to beat even Bernie Sanders. I have nothing to do with his lifetime devotion to liberal policies and politicians. That’s on him. And you. Yet you want to blame others for his and your failures. It is to laugh.

    JD (34f761)

  59. It’s not my job to acquiesce. It’s Trumps job to earn and persuade. Like your idol, you choose to lie and call names rather than do the work to persuade.

    JD (34f761)

  60. Have a cookie, Mr. Feet.

    Pons Asinorum (49e2e8)

  61. Given that Romney was supporting Kasich last Tuesday, I don’t think that Kasich is a stalking horse for Trump. He seems to be doing exactly what he claims — a first ballot denial strategy that opens the convention up to a free choice, which Kasich dreams will be him.

    While I think that Cruz would easily have a plurality of delegates with Kasich out of the race, it is not at all clear what happens if Kasich releases his votes; each state has different rules and the Convention has default rules. Same for Rubio who may or may not have released his delegates. Ideally both would stay as inactive candidates with bound delegates, all casting invalid votes, until the second ballot.

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  62. #54, PA asked, How would that work roplight, because of the Canadian thing and all?

    As you know I believe Ted Cruz is ineligible based on the Constitution’s limitation on eligibility for the presidency to only natural born citizens. Cruz was born in Canada to a Cuban father.

    Yet, I also said above that if Cruz got the nomination instead of Donald Trump, I’d vote for Cruz, assuming of course he wasn’t disqualified after being nominated and remained on the ballot at the GOP nominee.

    So, in answer to your question, I can walk and chew gum at the same time.

    ropelight (dec58b)

  63. You can’t bug me. Because the nomination will be decided between my first and second choice.

    Well actually Scott Walker, but he didn’t last long.

    papertiger (c2d6da)

  64. Kevin, it appears each state has their own rules.

    http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016/03/17/what-happens-to-delegates-won-by-rubio-other-ex-candidates.html

    That’s because in most states, delegates become “unbound” and are free to support other contenders as soon as their candidate withdraws.

    They don’t necessarily have to gravitate toward the front-runner at a contested convention, or, in the case of Rubio’s delegates, the candidate the Florida senator may ultimately choose to endorse.

    They would become essentially free agents, prizes to be wooed by the candidates duking it out in Cleveland.

    However some states bind their delegates to the first ballot no matter what.

    Pons Asinorum (49e2e8)

  65. So tired of this Trump can’t beat HRC because polls!!11!!! Fact fact fact!!! Nonsense. At this point in 1980, taking into account a much shorter primary contest, Carter was up by nearly double.

    ————————————————–Reagan—–Carter—–Anderson
    December 1979/January 1980…..33%……….62%
    February/March………………………31%……….60%
    ……………………………………………..33%………58%
    ……………………………………………..34%………40%………..21%
    April/May………………………………34%……….41%………..18%
    ……………………………………………..32%……….38%………..21%
    ……………………………………………..32%……….40%………..21%
    June/July……………………………….32%……….39%………..21%
    ……………………………………………..33%………..35%……….24%
    ……………………………………………..37%……….32%………..22% (GOP convention July 14-17)
    ……………………………………………..37%……….34%………..21%
    August/September………………….45%……….29%…………14%
    ……………………………………………..38%……….39%…………13% (D convention Aug11-14)
    ……………………………………………..39%………..39%……….14%
    October/November………………….44%……….40%…………9%
    ……………………………………………..45%……….39%………….9%
    ……………………………………………..47%………..44%………..8%
    —————————————————————————————–
    Actual result……………………………51%…………41%……….7%
    ===============================================================

    Fascists, proportional fonts, I take ’em all on…

    WTP (aca208)

  66. Meant to add, polls are BS. The only one that counts is on the first Tuesday in November. Wednesday if you’re a democrat.

    WTP (aca208)

  67. Okay, WTP. How do you see him increasing his positive and decreasing his negatives?

    JD (34f761)

  68. Mr. Trump, help McCain lose

    Trump won’t say anything until Jan Brewer, who endorsed him, decides if she’s running or not.

    Cruz, who is in AZ today, ought to endorse one of McCain’s opponents, as a response to McConnell.

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  69. Kevin, it appears each state has their own rules.

    This was part of the reason I said: “each state has different rules”

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  70. Donald Trump, however, is still groping his way towards Stage Zero thinking.

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  71. You see, the problem is not that I disagree entirely with Donald Trump. Some of his instincts are good, particularly his idea that both parties had conspired against the American worker by moving manufacturing and back-office jobs overseas, while importing manual labor and tradesmen from Mexico (and now knowledge workers from Asia).

    I get that. The problem is though, that whatever the issues, Donald Trump does not have the wetware to deal with them. He does not even rise to the level of blunt instrument. Endless knee-jerk reactions of “do something” aren’t adequate. He would be UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES incarnate.

    Better to press Cruz on the issues that to put an[other] incompetent in charge.

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  72. cookies!

    happyfeet (a037ad)

  73. “particularly his idea that both parties had conspired against the American worker by moving manufacturing and back-office jobs overseas, while importing manual labor and tradesmen from Mexico (and now knowledge workers from Asia).”

    He can’t even make this case honestly, as his actual practices directly contradict his current faux populist position.

    JD (34f761)

  74. I agree with the concepts of stage one thinking , etc.
    but maybe there is also stage zero, the very basics that shouldn’t even be decisions
    and if you don’t make them,
    you need to be slapped to wake up
    like this:
    http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2016/03/how-secret-is-it-17.php

    Trump is a deal making opportunist who likes to make a deal and walk away having personally benefited,
    when does he make decisions good for a company, good for stockholders, good for anyone other than himself?

    Stage zero thinking is having principles to live by, that’s what we need, that’s why people in DC don’t like Cruz
    at least that is what we think

    Rush made the point today that we haven’t seen anything yet in terms of viciousness against conservatives.

    MD in Philly (at the moment not in Philly) (ebc723)

  75. A Trump anecdote from the 1980s. ‘Inside baseball’ stuff but the ‘art of the deal’ at work.

    Those of us who worked within the ad biz in NYC back then knew big shops charged their marquee clients roughly 17.65% of billings. It was ‘clubby’ to be sure and one of the last hold overs from the ‘Mad Men’ era. In Manhattan, Trump was considered a marquee name to have on your client roster. Like Coca-Cola, Potemkin Cadillac or Citibank. Trump had a lot of properties and businesses in the tri-state area, as well as in Florida (where NY shops had satellite offices) to bid out for work. And the shops still along Madison Avenue wanted it. (Marquee name in the gilded 80’s to use to draw more business.) But ‘The Donald” was and is a savvy self-promoter, a style of marketing which is somewhat different from straight brand building ‘advertising.’ He didn’t need agencies for that. And Trump was usually underwhelmed by ‘advertising’ prepared by shops when he did a cost/benefit analysis. So when he began to bid out his business, he made it known he wasn’t going to pay 17.65%. Maybe 12% or negotiate to 14%. The big shops chuckled and balked- no way were they going to bow to that pressure and the clubby AAAA shops would hold fast. But the smaller shops, which craved to build a client list, wanted a marquee name and weren’t so firm to stand with the big shops. So they jumped at the opportunity to add the Trump name to their client list to build more business. They broke with the club(the big shops) and began to accept business at the 12%-14% rate. Better than nothing and they get the marquee name as a draw. Trump essentially broke the back of the advertising billing structure in NY advertising circles. The ‘art of the deal’ at work.

    DCSCA (a343d5)

  76. put it this way if i have a choice between Mr. Trump and Hillary i’m going to pick Hillary

    this is because i love america

    happyfeet (a037ad)

  77. I’m not going to bicker at this point about a choice between two terrible options.

    MD in Philly (at the moment not in Philly) (ebc723)

  78. Hillary 2016

    she is more better than Mr. Trump!

    happyfeet (a037ad)

  79. Hillary Roolz Donald Droolz

    happyfeet (a037ad)

  80. The 1980 electorate does not exist. The piece is anti-Trump because it is based on actual demographic splits here in reality.

    Rick Ballard (ba78e0)

  81. Mitt gets behind Ted Cruz.

    http://www.nytimes.com/politics/first-draft/2016/03/18/mitt-romney-to-vote-for-ted-cruz/

    Mitt Romney plans to vote for Senator Ted Cruz of Texas in Utah’s caucuses Tuesday, the 2012 Republican nominee wrote in a Facebook post Friday. In it, he also seemed to call for Gov. John Kasich of Ohio to step aside to give the Republican Party a better chance to block Donald J. Trump’s bid for the nomination.

    Mr. Romney’s vote in Utah, where he owns a house in Holladay, is not an endorsement, allies of Mr. Romney stressed. Rather, it comes as he is working to unite the Republican Party around an alternative to Mr. Trump.

    […]

    Though Mr. Romney campaigned with Mr. Kasich before the Ohio primary Tuesday, which Mr. Kasich won, the former governor of Massachusetts said in his Facebook post that Mr. Cruz was the party’s best chance to defeat Mr. Trump.

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  82. #68 Yes you did, my bad, sorry about that Kevin.

    Pons Asinorum (49e2e8)

  83. The guy from ohio and his amnesty donors have no chance to be v.p.
    If he is on the ballot. Forget it.

    mg (31009b)

  84. With friends like Mitt Romney, Ted Cruz doesn’t need Hillary for an enemy. Ted keeps his enemies close.

    ropelight (dec58b)

  85. It is almost funny that supporters of the New Deal liberal Trump attack Cruz for getting support from other Republicans.

    Rubio also said today that Cruz is the only conservative left in the race. Since this is true, the Trumpies will attack this as well.

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  86. Not only does Ted understand the idea of a Big Tent, but he also knows who is inside the tent and who is outside, and what a camel looks like.

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  87. Trump tilts when he should withdraw. He leads the fight.
    Sam Neill was describing acting lessons from Sean Connery while they were doing The Hunt For Red October. He said the first day on the set, Connery was throwing things, yelling at people backstage, causing a huge commotion. Everybody on set was holding their breath for fear they would be the last straw that chased off the star of the production.

    Then Connery came on set in costume every inch the commander of a Soviet submarine.

    The other actors response to Trump at the helm, that’s what we want. That’s what you should want.

    He’ll sober them up. You want middlin management at the IRS to quake at the thought of the Don bringing down the wrath of God.
    Under his leadership they will give the performance of their lives.

    papertiger (c2d6da)

  88. Maybe Cruz could run as Romney’s VP. Now, there’s a ticket Kevin could get behind.

    ropelight (dec58b)

  89. Cruz was born in Canada to a Cuban father.

    Cruz was born in Canada to an American mother, that we can be sure of. Can you prove his father is Cuban w/o a DNA sample?

    Yoda (feee21)

  90. I would happily vote for Cruz. I would less happily vote for Romney. I would grudgingly vote for Kasich. I will never vote for Trump. He isn’t smart enough, he isn’t sane enough and he isn’t competent enough to get my vote.

    He may impress some people, but then what wouldn’t?

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  91. Yoda–

    Yeah. If there is ANYTHING that needs investigation about the Natural Born Citizen thing, it’s claims of American paternity. We know that Trump was born to a Scottish woman, but we only have supposition that his father was an American named “Trump.” For all we know it could have been an illegal alien who knocked her up.

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  92. Yoda, it’s not necessary to prove Cruz’s father was a Cuban. He’s still alive and readily acknowledges his country of origin. The real question is did Cruz’s mother renounce her American citizenship and become a Canadian citizen prior to Cruz’s birth.

    We know neither of his parents filed the necessary paperwork at the time of his birth with the American consulate in Calgary to notify US authorities of Cruz’s birth.

    ropelight (dec58b)

  93. WHat Trump’s supporters don’t get is that they aren’t going to get a lot more support from GOP voters. They hope that the anti-Trump GOP will be forced to vote for him rather than accept a Dem win, but that didn’t work in 2012 with a FAR better candidate. Why should it work now with a clusterjerk?

    Now I know how Kornbluth felt when he wrote “The Marching Morons.”

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  94. #79… very happy to see that, Kevin. We need much more of that.

    Colonel Haiku (ac2a78)

  95. We know neither of his parents filed the necessary paperwork at the time of his birth with the American consulate in Calgary to notify US authorities of Cruz’s birth.

    The IRS says that this isn’t necessary. If either of your parents was American and you were born in Canada, you owe US income tax.

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  96. Ropelight is in full Jump for Trump mode.

    Colonel Haiku (ac2a78)

  97. back in 2012, around this time, romney was the second choice of gingrich voters, the reason why the former had to leave the race, because it worked out so well,

    narciso (732bc0)

  98. Prove that Trump’s father was American. Prove that Trump’s mother was naturalized before he was born. All we have is a trivially forged handwritten form. Maybe he was just an anchor baby.

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  99. We know that Trump was born to a Scottish woman, but we only have supposition that his father was an American named “Trump.”

    Was she a Scottish citizen? Did she renounce her Scottish citizenship to become an American citizen? If not, then Trump is a Scottish citizen,or holds duel citizenship, and is disqualified under the “Natural Born Citizen Clause” according to ropelight.

    Sheesh, reminds me of Gomer Pyle running around shouting at Barney, “Citizens Arrresssttt, Citizens Arrresssttt!”

    Yoda (feee21)

  100. I was a Gingrich supporter from the days when he had 1%, yet I happily voted for Romney in the end. Why? Because only he and Gingrich had the wit to be President and Gingrich choked in Florida and lost. Romney was close enough and far better than Obama. Wasn’t even hard.

    Dustin was in the same boat and made the same choice, iirc. I don’t know of a single Gingrich supporter here who refused to vote for Romney. The only people IRL that I met who said they would never vote for Romney admitted that it was because he was a Mormon.

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  101. Did she renounce her Scottish citizenship to become an American citizen?

    There’s a scrap of paper that says she did, dated the year before, but it looks kinda dodgy to me.

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  102. #97 Yoda,

    Thread winner.

    Cruz Supporter (102c9a)

  103. Now, Kevin, Newt was garroted in florida, outspent 10-1, it was like an alpha strike for about a week, and what was the result, romney won, but they revealed their playbook,

    just remember the party big wigs would rather trigger the cobalt bomb, ala taylor, then let cruz have the nomination, otherwise why the sea island conference,

    narciso (732bc0)

  104. An adopted baby, the child of one of the hundreds of thousands of displaced persons after WWII, adopted illegally in South America. Mrs. Trump faked the birth and the family doctor signed a false birth certificate. There is also the Heydrich factor. He could be a Lebensborn baby from the SS breeding program. Which is why Vince Foster had to be killed.

    nk (dbc370)

  105. “The real question is did Cruz’s mother renounce her American citizenship and become a Canadian citizen prior to Cruz’s birth.”

    You have shown no evidence that she did, as she never has. Therefore your entire imaginary construct collapses under the weight of its own nonsense.

    JD (34f761)

  106. Mittens voted for Kasich in Ma. and in New Hampshire as well as Michigan, it is what carpetbaggers do.

    mg (31009b)

  107. Religious bigotry is alive and well in much of the country. Hard to figure how a people who believe the constitution and the Declaration of Independence were divinely inspired, who strive to be model citizens could be as disliked as they are by some people. I’ve always thought that says much, much more about the character of the bigots than the religion.

    Colonel Haiku (ac2a78)

  108. And they know who they are.

    Colonel Haiku (ac2a78)

  109. Shouldn’t we be referring here to Donald Drumpf, if we’re looking at his own eligibility?

    Beldar (fa637a)

  110. Okay, WTP. How do you see him increasing his positive and decreasing his negatives?

    This right here is the problem. It is neither my place nor does it matter how I see him doing such. You political people, right and left, sit in your dens and spin your webs and think what goes on in your heads, what you read in your Rorschach test polls, etc. are a reflection of reality.

    That said, there are many possibilities that are in no way limited to what I say here. HRC has enormous potential downside to be exploited. This especially is an area that I trust NO ONE in the GOP to exploit. Even Cruz is afraid (though I’m guessing his advisors/handlers are most to blame) to go there. He could, as he “threatens” to do, soften his delivery in potentially useful directions. He can accentuate his positives by saying he will be tough on crime.

    WTP (094b61)

  111. This professor has adopted children and he looked into eligibility to argue they should be able to be President. It has some background about Presidential eligibility that I’d never seen before.

    DRJ (15874d)

  112. Sure are a lot of birthers spounin’ off ’round here this evening. Think any of the soft headed crybullies will ever grow-up and be useful citizens?

    ropelight (dec58b)

  113. I have voted for mittens 4 times Col. and he is a 3 time loser. Not counting Gruber care.
    My distaste for the man has nothing to do with religion.

    mg (31009b)

  114. WTP – you may not wish to address those, but he can’t win if he doesn’t improve both of them. And none of you sycophants can give an reality based argument how that might happen.

    JD (34f761)

  115. crybullies will ever grow-up and be useful citizens?
    ropelight (dec58b) — 3/18/2016 @ 5:01 pm

    ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
    “Citizens Arrresssttt, Citizens Arrresssttt!”

    Gomer "Yoda" Pyle (feee21)

  116. FFS, in context of what I said, I DID in fact give examples of what Trump could/might do. There are many many other possibilities. Reagan was considered a right wing extremist war monger who would get us all killed. Somehow he worked around that, overcame a nearly 30% (supposed) deficit relative to a sitting president. He overcame his negatives. Mostly by being a strong leader and to hell with what other people think. Can Trump do this? I have no f’n idea. But it’s not for me to decide these things. There’s a huge, diverse country out there and they despise not just the “establishment” but the whole political process. Many of the LIV’s that you pol types speak so derisively of have been busy living their lives. They have little time for this BS. But like in the 80’s, it seems they are waking up and they don’t give a f’k what you pols say, mostly because they are too busy to hear much of it.

    You call me a sycophant. The world runs independently from the hamsters spinning wheels in your head. Do you know anyone who you suspect may be leaning toward voting for Trump whom you don’t consider crazy? If not, find some. Reach out and try to understand other people. Have you considered the possibility that you may be more like Trump than you know?

    WTP (094b61)

  117. You know, used to read ropelight’s, Hoagie’s, and others comments that are now supporting lying POS Trump and thought they had some great insights. But now they remind me of “Invasion of the Body Snatchers” or have been taken captive by a cult and are in need of deprogramming. But now distressed I am that they have started down the Dark Path!

    But beware of the dark side. Anger, fear, aggression; the dark side of the Force are they. Easily they flow, quick to join you in a fight. If once you start down the dark path, forever will it dominate your destiny, consume you it will, as it did Obi-Wan’s apprentice.”

    Yoda (feee21)

  118. Trump and I are polar opposites. And I know plenty of friends and acquaintances that are Trump supporters. And they aren’t sycophants.

    JD (34f761)

  119. well you’ve tried every metaphor except aaron mccomb, greg stilson and damien thorn, if you’re going to paint him as the devil be original

    narciso (732bc0)

  120. To mention Ronald Reagan in the same paragraph in order to compare Darth Trump to him is certifiably INSANE!

    I met Mr. Reagan, and Darth Trump is no Reagan! Go away you persnickety piece of belly lint!

    Yoda (feee21)

  121. it’s an analogy, now rick may be right, the political culture was healthier in 1980, but the unwillingness to seriously confront obama, back in 2012, really was striking,

    narciso (732bc0)

  122. OK….now you’ve made me double check the meaning of sycophant. Given that the word “literally” no longer literally means “literally”, I have to do this occasionally. Still means what I thought it means. Please go back and point out what exactly I said that justifies the use of this word. All I have said is that the analysis and such here regarding Trump is flawed.

    WTP (094b61)

  123. First of all Yoda, I’m for Cruz, not Trump. Secondly, if not enjoying the Republican Party ripping itself apart and former Republican allies calling each other vile names puts me on a Dark Path then you are the one with a problem. I am not the one full of “Anger, fear, aggression” and I am not the one calling Trump supporters all kinds of rot. I have explained here why I believe Cruz to be the best man for the job. I have explained how his loyalty to conservative principles and the Constitution put me squarely in his camp. That said, I do not believe it is beneficial to bad mouth, insult, belittle and demean supporters of other Republican candidates (I save that for the democrat stooges). The candidates yes, their supporters no because just as I support Cruz for my own reasons which I believe to be true and correct, so too do they support their candidates. So when some start calling other Republicans stupid, ignorant and racist because they support a candidate they don’t favor I submit it is they who are full of anger, fear and aggression.

    Rev. Hoagie ™ (e4fcd6)

  124. What the Hoagie said.

    WTP (094b61)

  125. Tell me about your Trump friends, JD. What makes them trust him?

    DRJ (15874d)

  126. the napalm strike on breitbart is also symptomatic on this, when the dust clears, there will still be need of media, that doesn’t reflexively regurgitate dirigiste memes, and the journal isn’t it, hasn’t been for some time, the federalist went body snatchers as well,

    narciso (732bc0)

  127. They aren’t political, they like him being out of the mainstream, saying what he thinks. If you probe them beyond that they are completely unaware of his history of supporting liberal causes, liberal politicians. They believe in him, for whatever reason, but their knowledge of where he is and has been on issues is shallower than a puddle. Though, as demonstrated here, outside of immigration, his acolytes don’t really give a crap where he is on an issue today. Even with immigration, they just choose to have faith, all history to the contrary.

    JD (34f761)

  128. So Sorry Hoagie, I must have you confused with someone else that has been demeaning Cruz’s supporters while claiming that Trump is the second coming. All of this crosstalk has me confused! P[ease accept my humblest apologies.

    Yoda (feee21)

  129. They aren’t political, they like him being out of the mainstream, saying what he thinks.
    Bingo.

    WTP (094b61)

  130. Please, not P[ease!

    Yoda (feee21)

  131. They aren’t political, they like him being out of the mainstream, saying what he thinks.

    Perfect definition of a LIV!

    Yoda (feee21)

  132. I need to say one more thing about anger, fear and aggression. On the other post “Kasich to Play Spoiler for Trump’s VP Slot?” Yoda took the time to reprint the FEC filings for the Trump campaign in answer to my statement about Trump’s campaign being self-funded. For that I thank him. That bit of information, truth if you will, I will send to the last couple friends still in Trumps camp. I believe I can make them Cruz supporters before this is over but with proof, logic and truth not by badgering and name-calling. Just my opinion.

    Rev. Hoagie ™ (e4fcd6)

  133. That’s no problem, Yoda. Long as we’re on the same page. I want you to know I feel embarrassed for not looking up that information on my own and just parroting what Trump said. You’re a good guy for doing that and not rubbing my face in my ignorance. I will redeem myself with the next Trump supporter!

    Rev. Hoagie ™ (e4fcd6)

  134. Perfect definition of a LIV!

    As someone once said, Many of the LIV’s that you pol types speak so derisively of have been busy living their lives. They have little time for this BS. But like in the 80’s, it seems they are waking up and they don’t give a f’k what you pols say, mostly because they are too busy to hear much of it.

    WTP (094b61)

  135. I have voted for mittens 4 times Col. and he is a 3 time loser. Not counting Gruber care.
    My distaste for the man has nothing to do with religion.

    mg (31009b) — 3/18/2016 @ 5:12 pm

    Talk about his “magic underwear” again, mg. disagree with a person’s policies or rail about whatever atrocities or injustices said person has committed against you, but, unless practitioners of a specific religion are beheading people, raping, pillaging or other despicable acts, lay off their religion.

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  136. if you start sounding like the subject of this monologue, maybe danger will robinson, is probably the right response,

    http://www.rushlimbaugh.com/daily/2016/03/18/republicans_must_unite_welcome_new_voters_and_defeat_the_democrats

    actually colonel, he didn’t mention his religion, but his utter fecklessness in the last campaign,

    narciso (732bc0)

  137. Hannity is interviewing Ted Cruz on FOX NEWS right now.

    ropelight (dec58b)

  138. Actually, narciso, he did.

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  139. What Col. Haiku said. Especially if your religion involves virgins having babies.

    WTP (094b61)

  140. Why are atheists always such dlcks?

    JD (cd1d6f)

  141. Cuz their religion is having no religion.

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  142. Atheists, eh? Where?

    WTP (094b61)

  143. Ah, wth….again, this is the problem with you people who know so much and are so “smart”. You think you’re smarter than the other dummies who think they’re so smart. I’m by no means an atheist. I am rather protective of (some) Mormons in that the couple I know are good decent people who, while what they believe smells suspicious to me, do not deserve the kind of bs prejudice they get from some elements of “mainstream” Christianity. Especially the smart Alec crap about the “magic underwear”. Same goes for Unitarians. Excepting, of course, their underwear…assuming they wear any….I’ve never asked.

    WTP (094b61)

  144. So please, tell me all about who the d1cks are.

    WTP (094b61)

  145. Unitarianism Universalism is an unusual religious organization. Unlike most religions in North America, it does not require its adherents to adhere to a specific set of beliefs. Its membership includes individuals who identify themselves as Agnostics, Atheists, Buddhists, Christians, Humanists, Wiccans, or other religious tradition. Many inter-faith couples find it to be a comfortable religious home in which both spouses can gain spiritual nourishment.

    UUs view the main function of the congregation as facilitating the spiritual quest of its members. The main function of a UU minister is to help members of the congregation to develop their own religious belief system, and moral system.

    Sounds exactly like the wide path that leads to perdition.

    Yoda (feee21)

  146. Taken from their website.

    Yoda (feee21)

  147. Most Unitarians are still questioning whether or not God exists.

    Cruz Supporter (102c9a)

  148. Question: What’s the difference between an Atheist and an Agnostic?

    Answer: I’m not sure!

    😆

    Yoda (feee21)

  149. Interesting you choose not to bold this part:
    Many inter-faith couples find it to be a comfortable religious home in which both spouses can gain spiritual nourishment.

    Again, not my cup of tea. But care to tell me who the d1cks are?

    I’m over and out here but if you have any thought on the matter I can check back in the AM.

    WTP (094b61)

  150. Didn’t choose not to bold it, chose to bold the lost souls that are it!

    Yoda (feee21)

  151. Reagan was considered a right wing extremist war monger who would get us all killed.

    Oh, barf. You are reading the leftist drivel that passes for history. Clearly you did not live through those times.

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  152. Again, not my cup of tea. But care to tell me who the d1cks are?

    Just like at a poker table, when someone asks who the Noob is! Look in the mirror, the answer will reveal itself!

    Yoda (feee21)

  153. Reagan: Could write books about Triad, clearly describing problems with the strategies. Very nearly made a deal with the Soviets at Reykjavik to get rid of two of the three parts.

    Trump: Could you spell that for me?

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  154. Question: What’s the difference between an Atheist and an Agnostic?

    Answer: I’m not sure!

    That’s the Agnostic’s Answer. The Atheist’s answer is “He can’t face facts.”

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  155. Kevin M (25bbee) — 3/18/2016 @ 8:08 pm

    Well Kevin, the “Press” did live mic him with a sound check saying,:
    “My fellow Americans, I’m pleased to tell you today that I’ve signed legislation that will outlaw Russia forever. We begin bombing in five minutes.”

    😆

    Yoda (feee21)

  156. Clearly you did not live through those times.

    Oh yes I did. As even per Yoda above. Lived through all those doom and gloom sad-faced Jason Robards made-for-tv movies as well. Mostly because my parents were too cheap to pay for cable tv when over-the-air tv was already free. Lived through the Panama Canal give-away that Reagan strongly opposed and was part of what the establishment GOP (Ford) attacked him for, his supposed “gunboat diplomacy”. This being not all that long after we had just given Okinawa back to Japan, even though some Japanese hold outs were still surrendering. Reagan having to go hat-in-hand to Jerry Falwell because Reagan had the horrible stain of a divorce on his record. Evangelicals (though I doubt many Unitarians or Mormons, though didn’t know any at the time) were aghast at the idea that some movie actor who had been divorced might destroy the very fiber of our society by being elected president. And oh, was Ronald Reagan dumb. And Jack Kemp as well. I was reminded of this repeatedly by my ever-so-smart college professors. With the exception of one. Bed Time For Bonzo dumb. It was in all the papers how dumb he was. Why he even thought trees caused pollution. Boy was that man dumb.

    That’s all for me on this thread. But thank you for pointing out who the d1cks are. They seem somewhat concentrated in the #NeverTrump crowd. But what do I know? I’m kinda dumb myself.

    WTP (094b61)


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