Kasich to Play Spoiler for Trump’s VP Slot?
Check out this pair of tweets I wrote back on March 5, wayyyyy back when Marco Rubio was still in the race and had starry eyes about winning Florida:
I have not done the math. If Kasich wins Ohio, is it realistic to think he could throw Trump the delegates he needs for a majority?
— Patterico (@Patterico) March 5, 2016
@clarkr3000 I am taking about Kasich throwing Trump delegates in return for a VP spot. If he wins Ohio, and Trump lacks a majority, likely.
— Patterico (@Patterico) March 5, 2016
That’s starting to look rather prescient, isn’t it? People are starting to wake up to the possibility:
Trump will be close enough to 1237 that Kasich could make him nominee by asking his delegates to support Trump in exchange for VP
— Allahpundit (@allahpundit) March 17, 2016
Oddly enough, John Kasich, who has whined about not getting enough time in debates (even though he interrupts everybody and talks past the buzzer every single time), has rejected the notion of participating in the Salt Lake City Fox News debate now that Trump has backed out. (Recall that the last Fox News debate was devastating for Trump.) Hmmmm. This both legitimizes Trump’s decision and deprives Ted Cruz of a chance to use the time to embarrass Trump. Hmmmm.
And Kasich is making ad buys in Utah, where Cruz is certain to win . . . but the only question is whether Cruz can gain a majority and sweep the delegates. Hmmmm.
And, in case you weren’t aware: as of Tuesday, Kasich has been mathematically eliminated from clinching the nomination. If he takes 100% of the remaining delegates, he still falls short of 1237.
Hmmmmmmmmmmmmm.
Put it all together and the conclusion is obvious.
Whether by design or through stupidity, Kasich is going to hand the nomination to Trump. And there’s really nothing Cruz can do.
— Allahpundit (@allahpundit) March 17, 2016
If that’s not enough, there are other reasons to despair, if that’s the path you choose. I’ve taken a look at the upcoming primary map, and a big part of the problem is that there are a lot of states with a large proportion of people likely to vote in a stupid manner. I’m looking to Arizona next Tuesday. Trump is outpolling Cruz, but Cruz tends to outperform his polls. If Cruz can take Arizona, I think he’s got a chance. If he can’t, I’ll continue to advocate Cruz and hope . . . but frankly, I’ll probably prepare myself for the worst.
Bottom line: with Kasich continuing to play spoiler, it’s going to take a surprising event for Cruz to overtake Trump. And even if he does, it wouldn’t surprise me to see Kasich throw his support to Trump instead of Cruz. Oh yeah, I said it. Mark it down.
Trump/Kasich is your likely ticket this year.
But it won’t be mine.
Trump/Kasich, the least desirable candidates out of the whole field, and the most unlikable ones. I’ll be writing in Cruz/Fiorina.
melle1228 (59e0ab) — 3/17/2016 @ 7:19 amOne other thing: no matter how well Cruz does, Trump will remain the front-runner for a good long while just because the elections are going to start to be spaced out and few delegates will be awarded over the next several weeks.
Patterico (86c8ed) — 3/17/2016 @ 7:20 amWe can all agree Kasich is a pompous douche.
Rodney King's Spirit (a089dc) — 3/17/2016 @ 7:36 amPatterico, what a dilemma a Trump/Cruz ticket would pose for you.
Jim (a9b7c7) — 3/17/2016 @ 7:48 amthis is good news cause i’d prefer Mr. Trump over Mr. Cruz i think
Mr. Cruz and his Kim Davis butt snuffling antics were very off-putting, and ever since that sad episode I been very unenthused about him
happyfeet (831175) — 3/17/2016 @ 8:00 amKasich and Rubio should have dropped out weeks ago, and given their support to Cruz, who is the only viable alternative to the toxic Trump candidacy.
orcadrvr (41c165) — 3/17/2016 @ 8:07 amApparently, their egos would not allow them to do so, so the best we can hope for is a contested convention and the likely fragmentation of the Republican party.
The worst outcome is an outright Trump nomination on the first ballot, with the help of the quisling Kasich, and a catastrophic loss in November.
@Jim re 7:48 am post:
A Cruz/Trump ticket would actually be pretty cool. Recall that Teddy Roosevelt was slotted to the VP slot because he was a troublemaker and the party decided to put him into a safe “bucket of warm spit” (as the role was later described)
Then the problem is only to keep Cruz from taking the McKinley exit…
Pouncer (d90bef) — 3/17/2016 @ 8:15 amThe problem with language is that you can say all kinds of nonsense not based one iota on reality. There is no way Cruz would team up with Trump. Putin will defect from Russia bringing us all its state’s secrets before that happens.
nk (dbc370) — 3/17/2016 @ 8:18 amstate secrets?
nk (dbc370) — 3/17/2016 @ 8:19 amThere is no way Cruz would team up with Trump.
and i think vice versa is equally implausible
besides, Ted belongs in the senate where he can do his little thing
the White House is for closers
happyfeet (831175) — 3/17/2016 @ 8:20 amthe White House is for closers
Ooh, what a great opening. But I baked the best Greek lemon-oregano chicken ever, yesterday, and I’m still feeling the glow. Plus it’s a beautiful day.
nk (dbc370) — 3/17/2016 @ 8:36 ami made my chili spaghetti for breakfast
i haven’t shopped since i been back from la
happyfeet (831175) — 3/17/2016 @ 8:37 amI figured out that Skyline “chili”. It’s a meat sauce I’ve been making for years with cinnamon and nutmeg. It’s a classic Greek recipe. For a hint of chili add coriander and red pepper flakes (or chili powder). (Coriander is cilantro, so either one you have around.)
nk (dbc370) — 3/17/2016 @ 8:44 amyes!
that’s it exactly
so good
happyfeet (831175) — 3/17/2016 @ 8:50 amjust wish i’d had some raw onion
happyfeet (831175) — 3/17/2016 @ 8:50 amI really don’t see the argument here. Cruz should be happy Trump has someone to his left in Gulag states.
I see the tenace of VP but Kasich is a GOPe guy who will definitely make that play b4 a last ditch acceptance of something from Trump which will guarantee a split vote and a loss.
Highly improbable, implausible even.
DNF (ffe548) — 3/17/2016 @ 8:59 amKasich got the big Soros donation and flat out said amnesty in 100 days. That is incompatible with Trump’s most basic stand.
Trump and Cruz can still reconcile, barely, but Trump and Kasich cannot.
Kasich is in it to force the brokered convention, give it to some Gop grandee, and implode the party for 20 years.
luagha (4f63e2) — 3/17/2016 @ 9:18 amI can see Cruz keeping his word to “support the nominee”. But no more than that.
nk (dbc370) — 3/17/2016 @ 9:21 amWe can all agree Kasich is a pompous douche.
Whether he’s pompous or not, he’s certainly far too beholden to his liberal biases for my tastes.
I don’t know why so many politicians, if they err on one side or the other, invariably lean left. How come so few Democrats can ever be blamed for being too conservative?
The RNC higher-ups apparently don’t like Ted Cruz because he’s too much of the right, they don’t like Trump because he’s too much of an ego-driven loudmouth ribbing political correctness, while they seem to like Rubio or Kasich if only because such Republicans are less likely to upset the apple cart—particularly as it concerns cheap labor in the US (call the latter two “country-club Republicans” as opposed to the variation known as limousine liberals).
Mark (6c93d5) — 3/17/2016 @ 9:24 amTrump talks about Trump
Media talks about Trump
Cruz talks about Trump
Cruz might want to consider a change in tactics.
He needs to cut into Trump’s lead as steadily as possible. A good start: insist on the debate. If no one shows up, take the stage, be magnanimous to Carson and Rubio, show his humor and intelligence — take the common ground that most Americans have with his vision for the country.
Leave Trump out of it.
Pons Asinorum (49e2e8) — 3/17/2016 @ 9:36 amalso be THE L-D-S guy in the short term (although it seems like Beck – Romney – Huntsman can do much more harm than good); I think in 1-2 election cycles, if the Dems have a deep introspection, they can become the Mormon go-to party, its really one of the few avenues of growth remaining.
urbanleftbehind (5eecdb) — 3/17/2016 @ 9:40 amWithout Trump, the debate will not be televised. The only “Republican” the media wants to give free publicity to is Trump.
nk (dbc370) — 3/17/2016 @ 9:42 amI’m afraid you’re right, and a Trump-Kasich ticket would be such a poetic conclusion to this disaster of a primary– the supposed moderate voice of reason cynically attaching himself to Mr. Crazytown
Michael (48d854) — 3/17/2016 @ 9:52 am1) I don’t think a candidate can get “his” delegates to vote for anyone other than himself on the first ballot. They are either bound to him, or if he is not nominated per Rule 40, they fall back under whatever state rules apply. But I don’t think any of them (and certainly not many of them) allow the unnominated candidate to “throw his support” as in year’s past.
2) On later ballots, I’m not sure whose delegates these people are. Again, what were the rules for picking them at the state level, and were they bound to candidates they supported?
3) Kasich is a much better fit with Cruz for VP as a ticket balancer (on the theory that it is impossible to balance Trump). Cruz needs to make nice in some way with the party regulars whose support he will need in November. Someone has to drive the buses and walk the precincts. Choosing Kasich would help there. All Kasich needs to do is quit right now.
Kevin M (25bbee) — 3/17/2016 @ 9:53 amthe White House is for closers
Obama is more of a “closer” than Trump. All Trump has ever done is put on a new coat of hair gel and show up to sign. His people probably don’t let him read anything.
Kevin M (25bbee) — 3/17/2016 @ 9:56 amthat’s amusing kevin, obama never does any hands on management, he has axelrod, take players of the board, has reid and pelosi, read the apollo coalition’s plan into fruition,
narciso (732bc0) — 3/17/2016 @ 10:01 amThere is a delegate estimator tool at the NY Times (paywall?)
It’s a little fuzzy due to the winner-take-all stuff, but it shows that Cruz needs to outpoll Trump by about 5% to get to the convention even in delegates. A larger margin and Cruz leads, of course. A tie in the remaining primaries leaves Trump short of a majority, but with a sizable lead.
Kasich’s presence does not affect the relationship between Cruz & Trump delegates, but obviously affects Cruz’s share of the #NeverTrump vote.
With Kasich gone NOW, and Cruz winning out 55-45, Cruz goes to the convention with a sizable lead, but short of a majority. With Kasich in and polling 10%, Cruz would get the same result polling 50-40, but that’s a lot harder to do given the solidity of Trump’s base.
Kevin M (25bbee) — 3/17/2016 @ 10:10 amthe top men, would rather bring the temple down, then give it to cruz, in some vainglorious gesture like nominating ryan, how you don’t see that is a wonder.
narciso (732bc0) — 3/17/2016 @ 10:11 amHe’s gonna need a bigger country, with more states, so he can steadily creep up on Trump.
I’d say at least 57 states.
papertiger (c2d6da) — 3/17/2016 @ 10:12 amwell he’s been a white house target, for unpersonning,
http://hotair.com/headlines/archives/2016/03/17/sheldon-adelson-on-supporting-trump-why-not/
narciso (732bc0) — 3/17/2016 @ 10:15 amThe problem here is that Cruz would rather be right than win, and Trump would rather win than be right.
Kevin M (25bbee) — 3/17/2016 @ 10:29 amyes it’s just that simple you nailed the whole problem good job
happyfeet (831175) — 3/17/2016 @ 10:32 amIt was the only reason for him to be in the race.
Keep blocking Cruz and then get a GoPe name on the nomination.
Trump better get a food and drink tester if he’s picking Kasich.
njrob (b69d6e) — 3/17/2016 @ 10:47 amRight now the hunt for “double agents” is going on. At the caucuses the voters selected precinct level delegates. But they go on to county, then congressional district, and state level conventions. So no one really knows yet in many states who is actually going to attend the Republican Convention in Cleveland.
Apparently the Cruz campaign is best organized on the ground to place his people as delegates. Which means while they have to vote for who won the state in the first round, they can vote for whomever they like in subsequent ballots.
If they’re Cruz double agents, they’ll vote for Cruz.
Then there’s the matter of candidates who have no path to the nomination, those who’ve suspended their campaigns and Kasich who refuses to. They can release their delegates. They can endorse another candidate. But once those delegates are released they’re bloody well released and can voter for whomever they want.
So Kasich can make a deal with Trump to release his delegates in exchange for the VP slot. But he can’t serve up those delegates up on a platter. As a governor and effectively the state party boss there’s a lot he can do to enforce party discipline. But there’s a great deal an insurgent candidate can offer to undermine that discipline. For instance, there’s no RNC rule against a delegate trading their vote for something of value. Federal anti-corruption laws don’t apply; this isn’t a government entity deciding who gets a contract or anything. Really, it would be legal for a delegate to sell their vote outright, straight up. Generally what happens is that Super Pacs supporting a candidate will offer to pay a delegates expenses to the convention.
Yes, delegates have to pay for travel, lodging, and food. Although I imagine given all the social events going on surrounding the convention there are plenty of opportunities to graze on buffets at least at lunch and dinner.
Travel won’t be as much of a concern for Ohio delegates given the convention is in Ohio, as opposed to those traveling from Alaska, Hawaii, or Guam. Those airline tickets are expensive. But delegates don’t get to choose to stay at Motel 6. State delegations are lodged together, so if the Ohio delegation is going to be lodged in an expensive hotel that will prove a hardship for some of the delegates.
Right now there’s lots of wheeling and dealing going on behind the scenes so I wouldn’t despair over Cruz yet.
Hopefully the word will get out to the rank-and-file that Kasich is only staying in to deny Cruz delegates so he can make a deal with Trump. Just like Rubio stayed in far too long, knowing he would lose FL, just so he could deny Cruz a couple of states.
The RNC is engaging in some real Thad Cochran type back stabbing. The RNC has stacked the primary deck to stop TEA party conservatives. This wasn’t arranged with Trump in mind. And remember, it was McConnell who led the “all in for Cochran” campaign, the guy who hates Cruz and wants Cruz to publicly kiss his @$$ before they’ll think about helping him.
Steve57 (08b8c6) — 3/17/2016 @ 11:03 amCruz has made many tactical adjustments during this race. He started by targeting evangelicals to widen his conservative base, but he changed his focus when it became clear Trump was capturing those voters’ hearts. In addition, Cruz has tried several methods to winnow down the field while protecting his viability. The fact that Cruz’s campaign was given little or no hope and yet now he’s one of the last two viable candidates shows what a good job Cruz has done.
Cruz was right that this is an outsider year election. Cruz was right that voters want someone who will stop the Washington Cartel. Cruz was right that voters want to secure the border. Cruz was right that voters don’t want to fight wars to spread democracy. I could go on, but the point is Cruz has stood firm on his principles and he has shown a willingness to adjust tactics when he needs to. If that isn’t what voters want, then Cruz shouldn’t try to out-Trump Trump.
DRJ (15874d) — 3/17/2016 @ 11:04 amthe top men do this so many times it screams enemy action, in minnesota, they helped get governor target elected, we’ll skip macho grande, alaska, ginsberg worked against his party’s nominee, etc,
narciso (732bc0) — 3/17/2016 @ 11:07 amReally? They have to stay at the con hotel? Why? Why can’t they stay at Motel 6, or if they live in commuting distance why can’t they stay at home?
Milhouse (87c499) — 3/17/2016 @ 11:09 am@1 mellet1228
Maybe you can explain to me how someone can hate Trump as a candidate so much but love Fiorina.
Near as I can tell she just says the right things.
She ran a failed campaign. Trump is still in the running.
She’s a cancer survivor. Admirable, but Trump’s the healthiest person to ever run for the presidency.
Nobody but rabid anti-bushies wants the #2 slot to face a health crisis.
Trump Mr HitlerMcbankruptcies.
Fiorina, in a story from last year, still owed close to 500k to people involved in her 2010 campaign. I guess Trump isn’t the only one who doesn’t pay people.
She’s a multi millionaire-she can write a check.
Trump’s an overrated businessman?
Maybe. But did he lay off 30,000 people and destroy half of a company’s stock price?
I just don’t see what’s so great about candidate Fiorina. She doesn’t even have any delegates, right?
pinandpuller (a12946) — 3/17/2016 @ 11:15 amI’ve been telling people Kasich is likely for Trump’s VP for some time now. It makes total sense.
Kasich won’t scare anyone who isn’t already scared of Trump.
He is a serious policy guy who will shore up Trump’s weakness on the details.
He is Gov of Ohio which is the mother of all swing states.
Yep, I think Trump-Kasich will be the ticket.
mark johnson (e444ad) — 3/17/2016 @ 11:16 amdespair’s a wise option i think for if you’re hoping for Mr. Cruz to get the delegates he needs cause of he’s proving to be maladroit at this whereas Mr. Trump is like a delegate magnet
look at him go!
when i despair i like to put together a Devonshire tea i found out you could get Devon Clotted Cream from Mariano’s
i like to pair this with a very strong breakfast tea, and I’ll usually have a choice of apricot and strawberry for the preserves
happyfeet (831175) — 3/17/2016 @ 11:22 amI’m convinced. Fiorina doesn’t get my vote, unless she is running against Nancy Pelosi.
Or Barbara Boxer again.
Actually she should enter the race for Senate. Boxer is calling it a career debacle and retiring.
papertiger (c2d6da) — 3/17/2016 @ 11:33 amI live in the Grand People’s Democratic Republic of California. It will not matter who I vote for, I know this state will go for Sir Hillary. Will I vote Trump/Kasich? Not just no, but f**k no. I would rather write in Zombie Adolf Hitler/Zombie Pat Brown. I figure since my vote will be just so much trash by the time it’s deposited into a ballot box, I may as well have a little fun with it.
Now, if Cruz manages to make it to the nomination, I’ll vote for him with a smile on my lips and a song in my heart. Fiorina as Veep wouldn’t disappoint me, either.
Bill H (dcdd7b) — 3/17/2016 @ 11:38 amI don’t think so. No doubt Kasich is thinking this way, but I don’t see Trump as the kind of guy who would want to “owe” Kasich for putting him over 50%. That’s just not how he rolls. Trump’s gonna pick a real impressive looking potted plant.
I’m still waiting for Cruz to wake up and start campaigning directly to the working middle who like Trump’s promises but don’t realize they don’t mean anything. As our host points out often, every Trump deal is full of promises of great benefits but few ever benefit from them except Trump.
Trump says he’s all about winning. OK. Show me the winners.
crazy (cde091) — 3/17/2016 @ 11:40 amThe unfortunate thing is she doesn’t have a chance here. The way she’s seen here, she’s the correct gender, but not the correct gender. You get what I mean?
Bill H (dcdd7b) — 3/17/2016 @ 11:42 amhttp://www.capoliticalreview.com/top-stories/trump-has-big-lead-in-new-california-poll/
Remember. My first choice was Gov Scott.
papertiger (c2d6da) — 3/17/2016 @ 11:46 amConvince California to send her to Washington to shut off the spigot on planned parenthood. All she has to do.
papertiger (c2d6da) — 3/17/2016 @ 11:51 amWhat is the deadline for re-registering to vote under a different party for the CA primary? Hmmm… It would be something if the Dem ballot eschewed by, say, 80 % of presently registered Democrats, and instead those Dems chose between Cruz and Trump (even Kasich, who I think should suspend except for CA) on June 7. If Hilary’s got it locked up before June 7 and I could still vote for anyone regardless of party on the lower ballot, I’d be tempted to “help clarify” the R nominating process.
urbanleftbehind (5eecdb) — 3/17/2016 @ 11:58 amPer http://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/upcoming-elections/june-7-2016-presidential-primary-election/key-dates-and-deadlines-june-7-2016/ the last day to register is May 23.
Note that this is AFTER the start of the absentee ballot period, which I imagine can cause some complications if you reregister in a different party.
Disclaimer: I’m currently registered ‘decline to state’ and intend to reregister ‘Republican’ to vote for the most likely to be successful not-Trump.
aphrael (e0cdc9) — 3/17/2016 @ 12:01 pm/sub Kasich voters in for polar bears
mathematically eliminated from the post season. Just like the Reds.
papertiger (c2d6da) — 3/17/2016 @ 12:16 pmJust how red do you really think California is? This state isn’t purple, or periwinkle, or even wedgewood blue. Until the general electorate recovers their collective senses, this state is midnight blue.
Bill H (dcdd7b) — 3/17/2016 @ 12:18 pmSteve57 (#34) makes a point that has been almost totally ignored by Big Media up till today. The NY Times has a piece on the same issue. If Trump doesn’t win on the first ballot he probably will not win at all. That being said, I think he will win on the first ballot.
mark johnson (e444ad) — 3/17/2016 @ 12:20 pmWhy is that? You’ve mentioned you’re a Lib, and you have stated your case, so why the false flag? Am I missing something in your reasoning? Or is it simply Sir Hillary and Heartbern are really that unappealing to you?
Bill H (dcdd7b) — 3/17/2016 @ 12:23 pmBill H: I broadly agree with the thrust of today’s Washington Post editorial; Mr. Trump is a menace and a danger to the Republic and I’ll vote for just about anyone who has a chance of defeating him.
California’s rules, unlike NY’s, allow me to switch parties at any time. Given how strongly I feel about Mr. Trump, I feel an ethical duty to do so. (Furthermore, because of how California’s primaries work, every public office *other* than the Presidential primary is a jungle primary where my partisan registration has no effect on what my options are).
I will of course decline to vote on things like party central committee members, etc; I have no dog in those fights, and no reason to have one.
aphrael (e0cdc9) — 3/17/2016 @ 12:28 pmRemember one point, Mark: he has to have the 1237 delegates to do that. Never mind his veiled threats for a riot otherwise, and his bluster trying to lower the delegate count to suit him. And we still have a ways to go.
Bill H (dcdd7b) — 3/17/2016 @ 12:28 pmPapertiger: Mrs. Fiorina ran for the Senate in California once, already.
She lost 52% to 42% (with a smattering of minor party candidates taking the rest, in the last statewide election where that was possible).
She is unlikely to win if she tries it again.
aphrael (e0cdc9) — 3/17/2016 @ 12:33 pmTrue, yes, I know that I can as well. I just don’t think I could do the primary switch. The one fortunate thing is the primary will list Cruz. I can vote for that and still be clear of conscience. The bad thing is you and I both know that if Cruz does not make it to the general, it’s going to be a choice between Clinton and Trump. May not be the problem for you since you stand as a Liberal, but I just cannot vote for either. From my viewpoint, either will be bad for the country. Being a Conservative in SoCal, I recognize that my vote will be worthless.
Bill H (dcdd7b) — 3/17/2016 @ 12:38 pmI didn’t say it would be easy. You’d be surprised how many Californians are against baby dismemberment for profit. (Mostly against ‘for profit’, but if it saves babies, it’s already in their wheelhouse.)
papertiger (c2d6da) — 3/17/2016 @ 12:41 pmNot at all. I’ve already said I would not vote for that ticket.
Patterico (d93e1f) — 3/17/2016 @ 1:24 pmpapertiger, Californians are against anything that’s “for profit” unless of course it’s their profit. Of course what they earn isn’t profit, it’s “their fair share”.
Rev. Hoagie ™ (eb7063) — 3/17/2016 @ 1:32 pm… I vaguely remember folks in this fora saying a vote for third party was like throwing away one’s vote yet I see many now saying they won’t vote at all now b/c of Trump v Hillary.
Is this a case of not where you stand on an issue but where one sits at the moment driving thoughts? Sounds like situational principles to me.
Rodney King's Spirit (a089dc) — 3/17/2016 @ 1:40 pmGimme a baseline here Papertiger. Do you live in California? I am NOT saying shutup if you don’t. My point is things look different from a distance. i get what you’re advocating, I just don’t see how. You gotta remember, this is a state that chose a B-list actor/muscle man over a genuine conservative, replacing a failed Gray Davis.
Bill H (dcdd7b) — 3/17/2016 @ 1:40 pmVoting for an alternative candidate, or not voting at all, is like giving half a vote to the Democrat. And yes, that is what I will do if Trump gets the nomination, because I’d rather a Democrat win than Trump.
Milhouse (87c499) — 3/17/2016 @ 1:42 pmDo you know what Lindsey Graham is up to? He’s gonna raise funds for Cruz just long enough to ensure Trump can’t get enough delegates. The media is reporting it wrong because he has no intention to help Cruz get nominated.
Jcurtis (d3065a) — 3/17/2016 @ 1:49 pmRodney King’s Spirit (a089dc) — 3/17/2016 @ 1:40 pm
yep, people have said that.
and I have always said that everybody has their limits, and when people made that claim, they simply had not yet imagined reaching that point.
One can discuss and clarify the facts regarding a given candidate, but in the end I do not believe there is any “right” or “wrong” answer as when and where a person draws a/the line/
And I have also suggested that it is not worth an argument over just how bad an option has to be before one boycotts it.
MD in Philly (at the moment not in Philly) (1681fe) — 3/17/2016 @ 1:52 pmI think Trump is a terrible choice. that said, I would probably vote for him against Clinton,
but I have no argument, at all, with someone who thinks and feels differently.
Those who seek to exalt themselves will be humbled, those willing to humble themselves will be exalted, – Jesus
where there is selfish ambition there will be disorder and every vile practice- Jesus’ (half)brother James
but the time frames and details are quite variable
MD in Philly (at the moment not in Philly) (1681fe) — 3/17/2016 @ 1:55 pmI can’t speak for others, but this is not a case of flexibility for me. I honestly don’t remember if I’ve said it here or not, but I have said that I would not vote for Trump. I effing meant that. I don’t know just how much more firm my principles can be.
Bill H (dcdd7b) — 3/17/2016 @ 1:55 pmThe problem is they aren’t democrats any more. They are socialists tending toward communists. So you’re saying you’d rather a communist win than Trump and that’s just dumb. You may be giving away our First and Second Amendment rights because you don’t like a personality. No matter how bad Trump is he’s no communist. No matter how good Hillary! is she is one.
Rev. Hoagie ™ (eb7063) — 3/17/2016 @ 2:13 pmHi Papertiger, the last time voters in California were asked to vote on *parental notification* for abortions was Proposition 4 in 2008. It was defeated, 52-48.
What’s the evidence that enough voters have shifted to change the outcome?
aphrael (e0cdc9) — 3/17/2016 @ 2:20 pmWe have two political parties in the US, the Stupid Party and the Evil Party. Almost all of the regular commenters here are members of the Stupid Party.
ropelight (d93310) — 3/17/2016 @ 2:23 pmYou have Trump’s way with words, ropelight.
DRJ (15874d) — 3/17/2016 @ 2:26 pmHalf of American women have an very unfavorable view of Donald Trump. Are these the stupid women or the evil women?
DRJ (15874d) — 3/17/2016 @ 2:28 pmthey’re poopers!
happyfeet (831175) — 3/17/2016 @ 2:29 pmI found the answer in the article: Republican women like Trump far more than Democratic women. Thus, according to ropelight, stupid people like Trump!
DRJ (15874d) — 3/17/2016 @ 2:31 pmI would imagine according to ropelight if they’re democrat women evil, and if they’re Republican women stupid. Why? You couldn’t figure that out?
Rev. Hoagie ™ (eb7063) — 3/17/2016 @ 2:33 pmC’mon DRJ, you’re better than that, a lot better.
ropelight (d93310) — 3/17/2016 @ 2:35 pmHeh. Did you just call me stupid, Hoagie? You and ropelight are moody today.
DRJ (15874d) — 3/17/2016 @ 2:37 pmDon’t change the subject, ropelight. You’re better than that.
DRJ (15874d) — 3/17/2016 @ 2:38 pmI believe it’s because the state or territorial Republican committee reserves all the required rooms at a particular hotel well in advance, before they know who the delegates are going to be and what preferences they might have. If delegates wait until the selection process is over and done with and try to book a room themselves there might be nothing available. That’s how it has always worked. If you’re interested you can see where each state delegation stayed at the Tampa convention in 2012.
http://abcnews.go.com/Travel/hotels-republican-national-convention/story?id=17086846#
Steve57 (08b8c6) — 3/17/2016 @ 2:38 pmHalf of American women hate Trump. Isn’t that a problem?
DRJ (15874d) — 3/17/2016 @ 2:39 pmIt’s apparent that Ropelight never read any Dale Carnegie.
Colonel Haiku (ac2a78) — 3/17/2016 @ 2:40 pmYou called us stupid in comment 69, ropelight. Like Trump, you see yourself as hrroically speaking truth, while any disagreement is viewed as rude and hostile.
Deal with it. It’s free speech and it works both ways.
DRJ (15874d) — 3/17/2016 @ 2:44 pmLindsey Graham Holds Fundraiser for… Ted Cruz
Any volunteers for Cruz’s official food taster?
Colonel Haiku (ac2a78) — 3/17/2016 @ 2:45 pmPlease note DRJ that I’m a regular commenter here, and include myself as a card carrying member of the Stupid Party – emphasis on member of the Stupid Party. I’m not stupid and neither are you, but we’re both members of the Stupid Party.
ropelight (d93310) — 3/17/2016 @ 2:51 pmWhy assume Kasich must be aiming to be Trump’s VP? Maybe he just wants to have independent leverage. No Republican has ever been elected president without carrying Ohio. Why assume Trump would be the only bidder for Kasich’s delegates at a brokered convention?
Bob L. (780f7f) — 3/17/2016 @ 2:57 pmBill H. People already know Fiorina’s name. They have six other people jostling for a position. There are at least enough Californians to put her on the stage.
papertiger (c2d6da) — 3/17/2016 @ 3:31 pmnobody’s stupid per se
happyfeet (831175) — 3/17/2016 @ 3:34 pmCondi Rice leads the pack of 2016 Senate hopefuls
papertiger (c2d6da) — 3/17/2016 @ 3:35 pmHappy St. Paddy’s Day to the lot of you.
mg (31009b) — 3/17/2016 @ 3:39 pmCorned beef, cabbage,carrots and potatoes cooked perfectly at the The Lost Dog Pub.
We should all vote for someone other than Trump so hillary can name the next two supreme court justices. That will keep kennedy from being the swing vote.
jim (a9b7c7) — 3/17/2016 @ 3:39 pmNo. Condi Rice isn’t running for the Senate in 2016, or any other time. Ever!
But she’s still leading the polls. Weird.
papertiger (c2d6da) — 3/17/2016 @ 3:39 pmNot 57 papertiger, but 1237 — that’s the magic number. Someone figured that works out to about 53% of the remaining primary voters. Rubio is out, bunch of closed primaries coming up. Not easy, for sure, but not unrealistic either.
Still in the fight.
Pons Asinorum (b180a2) — 3/17/2016 @ 3:41 pm“I’m a pooper, they’re a pooper, wouldn’t you like to be a pooper too?”
Bill H (dcdd7b) — 3/17/2016 @ 3:41 pm“I’m a pooper!
Bill H (dcdd7b) — 3/17/2016 @ 3:45 pmSo misunderstood…”
“We have two political parties in the US, the Stupid Party and the Evil Party. Almost all of the regular commenters here are members of the Stupid Party.”
– ropelight
See, you would think people would refuse to be a member of either of those parties.
Leviticus (efada1) — 3/17/2016 @ 3:46 pmI’m with stupid.
papertiger (c2d6da) — 3/17/2016 @ 3:50 pmEverybody poops.
nk (dbc370) — 3/17/2016 @ 3:53 pmI looked up stupid in the dictionary and it said “Somebody who has to look up stupid in the dictionary”.
nk (dbc370) — 3/17/2016 @ 3:56 pmyes yes that is wisdom
happyfeet (831175) — 3/17/2016 @ 3:59 pmAlrighty- enough of the Dr Pepper puns….
Yes- we are well aware of Carly Fiorina. I definitely would not mind seeing her as my junior Senator. The problem isn’t getting her on the ballot. The problem is convincing the three main Democrat strongholds in California (San Francisco/Bay Area, Los Angeles and environs, and Sacramento) to vote for her. That was the problem last time around for her. There are several red and reddish-purple areas of california that would install her. But even with Orange, San Diego San Bernardino and Riverside counties voting almost en bloc for her, the overall vote count from those three areas damn near wipes out any advantage she would have.
You really don’t know just how goofy politics here in the Golden State has become. This is a state that reelected Jerry Brown to the Governor’s office after 30 years because a new crop of millennials fell for it, believing that Ahnold (yes- he was term limited out, thank God) and his policies just weren’t progressive enough.
Put it this way- if she can make it on the ballot, you bet your bippy I’ll vote for her. I’m just left wondering how she would make it to the Senate.
Bill H (dcdd7b) — 3/17/2016 @ 4:02 pmI knew it from the staert. A thread with both Trump and Kasich as the subject was not going to be serious for long, if at all.
nk (dbc370) — 3/17/2016 @ 4:03 pmDRJ,
Thank you for the link to the Reuter’s piece. The actual takeaway line was
IOW – exposure to the fraud has increased strong antipathy among women towards him by 25%. If the media have their way and gift him the nomination, they will immediately publish accounts of his lifetime misogynist behavior using his own words continuously in order to drive the strong antipathy up another 25%. The Trump Unicorn Cavalry needs to work on explaining the TRUMP PATH TO VICTORY using calculations showing what his support level among men will have to reach in order to offset the strong antipathy felt by over half of the anticipated majority of voters.
Rick Ballard (ba78e0) — 3/17/2016 @ 4:03 pmThey’re in at least as much danger from him.
Milhouse (87c499) — 3/17/2016 @ 4:19 pmI don’t see any problem. Seems 50% of Republican women “hate” (not just won’t vote for, literally HATE) Trump. 100% of democrat men and women hate him, 99% of blacks, 107% of Hispanics, 140% of moslemsand everybody one welfare and in Federal prison. The only people for Trump are 22 neo-nazi’s and that ugly broad with the Celtic cross. Stick a fork in him.
Rev. Hoagie ™ (eb7063) — 3/17/2016 @ 4:22 pmNo, they’re not. It’s guaranteed from them.
Rev. Hoagie ™ (eb7063) — 3/17/2016 @ 4:23 pmTrump has new lead in CA in poll taken by people you’ve never heard of! Reported by pro-Trump blog you’ve never heard of. I wonder who commissioned it.
Trump will lose in CA by double digits, just like the Trump-lite governor candidate did.
Kevin M (25bbee) — 3/17/2016 @ 4:25 pmYes, it is possible Kasich would throw in with Cruz,
I seriously think Kasich still has delusions of a split convention and ending up the presidential nominee, as unlikely as that seems to be in the eyes of just about everybody, from the serious professionals here to the amateurs like Krauthammer and Gingrich.
More than that I’ll just say something is going to happen, and when it does, we will know what it is.
As far as Hillary goes, I think her presidency, if it happens, will be a disaster, but not as damaging to the country as Obama’s has been. I don’t think she will get the same blindness to her faults treatment that Obama has received. And I don’t think she is as crafty as Obama. Look, she was supposed to be coronated twice now, and twice some senator out of nowhere has given her fits. Look at Bernie Sanders, if he is a serious contender, what does that say about HRC’s strength?
But I could be wrong about that, too.
I was thinking Condi Rice for VP with Cruz.
MD in Philly (at the moment not in Philly) (1681fe) — 3/17/2016 @ 4:26 pmharvardtrash ted is old and busted Mr. Trump is the new hotness
plan accordingly
happyfeet (831175) — 3/17/2016 @ 4:26 pmPatterico, what a dilemma a Trump/Cruz ticket would pose for you.
Why would Trump plus a sell-out Cruz be better than Trump alone?
Kevin M (25bbee) — 3/17/2016 @ 4:28 pmAnd yes, that is what I will do if Trump gets the nomination, because I’d rather a Democrat win than Trump.
I have to agree with this. We can recover from a Democrat. We cannot recover from Trump. He is too stupid, too arrogant, and FAR too ignorant to be anywhere near power. Whether he would cause world depression, world war or both is really only up to chance.
Trump should have UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES tattooed on his forehead.
Kevin M (25bbee) — 3/17/2016 @ 4:32 pmHe might, and that’s why the combover?
nk (dbc370) — 3/17/2016 @ 4:33 pmAs for the “Stupid Party”, maybe. But Trump will fix that. He’ll make it the “Ignorant Party.”
Kevin M (25bbee) — 3/17/2016 @ 4:34 pmlotta haters on this board
happyfeet (831175) — 3/17/2016 @ 4:37 pmDonald Trump is probably the least qualified person to be seriously considered for the office of President since the founding. I cannot believe that many people actually think this is a good idea, so I just have to consider that they are 1) evil; 2) Democrat partisans; or 3) clinically insane.
Hate? Not sure hate is a strong enough word. I dislike Hillary. I hate Obama. But my feelings for Trump and what he is doing to the country is beyond that. Well beyond that.
Kevin M (25bbee) — 3/17/2016 @ 4:44 pmDonald Trump is probably the least qualified person to be seriously considered for the office of President since the founding.
nope food stamp was much worse
I cannot believe that many people actually think this is a good idea, so I just have to consider that they are 1) evil; 2) Democrat partisans; or 3) clinically insane.
who said it was a good idea? All Team R offered as an alternative was a bunch of fetid establishment filth like jeb and roobs and a kim davis butt snuffling piece of harvard trash with a goldy sacky wife and the charisma of poop.
I dislike Hillary. I hate Obama. But my feelings for Trump and what he is doing to the country is beyond that. Well beyond that.
only one of the people mentioned here is an actual American
happyfeet (831175) — 3/17/2016 @ 4:49 pmTrue. Hillary is the only one with two parents who were Americans.
nk (dbc370) — 3/17/2016 @ 4:51 pmyeah but she’s a pooper
happyfeet (831175) — 3/17/2016 @ 4:52 pmMr. Instapundit inspired me to get a new mopping robot today
my moneual sucks ass really and I’m a let my friend F have it and suggest he mostly use it to vacuum
so i got this one coming tomorrow
the scooba just seems like overkill for my crumbling tenement building’s paint-flecked ghetto-assed hardwood floors
happyfeet (831175) — 3/17/2016 @ 4:57 pmThere is no qualification to be President other than being a natural born citizen, having attained the age of 35 and resided in the United States continuously for fourteen years. Therefore, Kevin M, Trump is exactly as qualified as any other person who ever ran for the office from George Washington to Obama. You don’t get to decide who is qualified, the Constitution does, thank Heaven. You are way too emotional for such a heavy responsibility.
Rev. Hoagie ™ (eb7063) — 3/17/2016 @ 5:11 pmlight up the night and let it burn lean back and watch the sundown fade
happyfeet (831175) — 3/17/2016 @ 5:15 pmGiving money to Cruz helps Kasich more than if you gave the money to Kasich.
In most of the remaining contests, Kasich wants voters to vote for Cruz and not him.
What it adds up to is they need stealable votes delegates than legitimately made Kasich vote delegates because there are more stealable ones to be had. 3 legitimate made delegates cancel 5 stealable delegates and the difference goes into the Trump column. It’s a double-whammy.
So what can you do for Cruz? Nothing. He’s done.
Jcurtis (d3065a) — 3/17/2016 @ 5:21 pmYou smokin’ that happy-happy again, happyfeet?
Rev. Hoagie ™ (eb7063) — 3/17/2016 @ 5:21 pm#118 Rev Hoagie,
Don’t you think it’s pretty obvious that when Kevin M is speaking to Trump’s qualifications, he’s not describing his Constitutional eligibility?
Cruz Supporter (102c9a) — 3/17/2016 @ 5:29 pmIt sounds like he’s talking about Trump’s FITNESS to become President.
When you see the states coming up they’re mostly out west and in the northeast. Simply don’t see where Cruz comes out ahead in any of them. His evangelical base is not all that strong in most of those states. Trump is likely going to win without any help from Kasich. And Kasich and trump don’t mesh at all on the issues.
Bugg (3ae93d) — 3/17/2016 @ 5:32 pmIf I understood what Jcurtis said I’d worry about what I was smoking. Maybe even go to the emergency room.
nk (dbc370) — 3/17/2016 @ 5:32 pmThe theory that Kasich is angling to be Veep is hard to explain in light of his refusal to commit to supporting Trump just in the past couple of weeks.
Gerald A (7c7ffb) — 3/17/2016 @ 5:35 pm#113, Kevin, thanks for sharing that, it’s a near perfect example of Trump Derangement Syndrome. You’re certifiably a taco short of a combination plate.
ropelight (d93310) — 3/17/2016 @ 5:37 pmNo, Happyfeet. A lot of poopers who don’t agree with you. Big difference.
Bill H (dcdd7b) — 3/17/2016 @ 5:40 pmtogether we can make America great again Mr. H
even ted can help in his small way
happyfeet (831175) — 3/17/2016 @ 5:41 pmIf I understood what Jcurtis said I’d worry about what I was smoking. Maybe even go to the emergency room.
nk (dbc370) — 3/17/2016 @ 5:32 pm
Heh. It’s cutthroat and rat holes over in Cocaine Alley, but peaceful, if a bit scrambled, on Pot Place…
Colonel Haiku (2601c0) — 3/17/2016 @ 5:43 pm“my moneual sucks ass really…”
Well, there’s your problem. Try using it on the floor.
Colonel Haiku (2601c0) — 3/17/2016 @ 5:44 pmWino v Bag Lady
First punches
Wino set the tone, Bag Lady threw a decent counter punch. I doubt either will ever make the long climb up to the gutter but at least the initial leap into the pig sty has been accomplished.
Rick Ballard (ba78e0) — 3/17/2016 @ 5:52 pmI made the observation, back during Super Tuesday campaign, that based on where Kasich was ignoring, he could not be seriously running for president, but rather was running for vice president. I had no clue as to whose, and until Patterico’s post above assumed he didn’t have a preference (just whomever came out on top). I think Patterico has it right – Kasich doing an ad buy in Utah convinced me.
As for the coming states, there are over 100 delegates on the table this coming Tuesday alone. (Arizona, Utah, Northern Marianas). IMHO, this is major for Cruz, because at this point in the race, he’s got to win a lot more than he loses to have a shot. These states should be good ground for him (Arizona, for example, is a winner take all closed primary, 58 delegates). Utah, a closed caucuses (Trump’s weakest ground) winner take most, 40 delegates.
My take, based on the delegate math plus Cruz having finally gotten Rubio out of the race, is that Cruz needs to win at least one of these, that one being Arizona (58 delegates) to hold onto hope, but really needs both (because, momentum). If he doesn’t, the math looks too daunting to me going forward (especially as much of it is on terrain less favorable to Cruz), and Cruz is not going to be the choice of a brokered convention any more than Trump is (and both surely know this). I would love for someone to show me I’m wrong, because I hope I am, but the way it looks to me is that Tuesday may be make or break for Cruz regarding him having a good chance of being the nominee. However, on the bright side, both states look like good ground for him IMHO (and I hope I’m not wrong about that part).
Arizona CJ (da673d) — 3/17/2016 @ 5:54 pmHoagie, Donald Trump is unqualified to be our president. On the basis of his personal integrity, his personal success, his service to the nation, and his interest in the welfare of her citizens, he is inadequate.
You don’t Kevin he’s emotional to make this point. I hear this sort of thing a lot from Trump’s fans. If you point out a good argument, they will simply ignore the argument and mock that you’re going to have to get over it. But, no, I don’t have to get over it. Trump in only a bad president in theory. He won’t cross the finish line.
When Hillary is sworn in, take some responsibility for helping that happen.
Dustin (2a8be7) — 3/17/2016 @ 6:06 pmomg as if failmerica had high standards
happyfeet (831175) — 3/17/2016 @ 6:08 pmOh h3!! No, lol — calling the Titanic! Lol
Completely agree with you about everything you said re Cruz. His principles and vision for the country — and his sense of honor (and record) — are exactly why he earned my support. And I’m not even Texan!
I just wish the national conversation would shift to Cruz so that all see that.
The tactics he is using are okay, but he needs (i think) to stop talking about Trump and instead focus on his message. Make it rain. With 53% of the remaining primary voters to get 78% of the remaing delegates, Cruz gets the magic 1237. He can do this.
Pons Asinorum (17f2f1) — 3/17/2016 @ 6:13 pmNice try. By very low standards, such as telling the truth and not hustling everyone you encounter like a sociopath, Trump falls short. His fans will be unable to refute this point except to say someone is crazy for caring about the president being a reasonably decent person.
Dustin (2a8be7) — 3/17/2016 @ 6:21 pmEver notice how all Cruz supporters can predict the future. For example, somehow they just know that Donald Trump can’t win against Hillary, when in fact he’s been doing a lot more winning than their guy for months now. You’d think the shellacking Cruz has taken recently would engender a little humility.
ropelight (d93310) — 3/17/2016 @ 6:24 pmDustin, I still think Andrew Klavan’s video says it all about Trump.
HF, though? He is a weird nihilist. And since he never votes anyway, it doesn’t matter.
Simon Jester (c6d575) — 3/17/2016 @ 6:30 pmI guess some people would rather vote for the pure quill Democrat than the knock-off Republican.
After four years HRC is going to end up looking like Marlon Brando in Apocalypse Now.
Expect yuge turnover as Secret Service agents retire en masse.
Dogs and cats getting married in San Francisco and adopting pot bellied pigs.
pinandpuller (928ad9) — 3/17/2016 @ 6:33 pmUmmm…
First: thanks for demonstrating Dustin’s point so quickly and vividly.
Second, the polls suggest you are…well….not thinking clearly on this topic.
Highest unfavorable ratings since polling began.
Literally the ONLY person HRC can beat.
But if you have two polls that show the Orange Toupee beating the Harridan, I would love to see them. Sanders does even better, as you surely know.
Do you have two polls showing Trump beating Clinton?
Simon Jester (c6d575) — 3/17/2016 @ 6:33 pmIf a Cruz supporter points out a poll it means they lack humility, because Cruz isn’t winning. Whatever. No polls can be cited from now on!
Gerald A (7c7ffb) — 3/17/2016 @ 6:37 pmI don’t understand you, ropelight. Ok, you’re a fan of conspiracy theories, but I like white sidewall haircuts myself. Different strokes. I know that you are not a hater like Christoph, or a dipwick like pudandpuller. What does Trump give you that Cruz doesn’t?
nk (dbc370) — 3/17/2016 @ 6:43 pmnk, legitimacy. Trump is qualified and Cruz isn’t. I’m a stickler for the Constitution.
ropelight (d93310) — 3/17/2016 @ 6:46 pmKevin, thanks for sharing that, it’s a near perfect example of Trump Derangement Syndrome. You’re certifiably a taco short of a combination plate.
The majority is always sane and you, sir, are in the far far fringe. You are following a man who is not fit to polish Obama’s shoes — and I think Obama is the worst President ever.
Kevin M (25bbee) — 3/17/2016 @ 6:47 pmGeez, you guys. There’s been a polling conspiracy against Trump since he announced. It’s obvious the GOPEstablishment (run by the oligarchy) has ordered polling companies to show Trump losing to Clinton in all but a few polls. The GOPllumnati have also ordered Gallup to always show Trump with much lower approval ratings than Clinton.
CAN’T YOU ALL SEE THE OBVIOUS CONSPIRACY!
Rick Ballard (ba78e0) — 3/17/2016 @ 6:47 pmTrue. Hillary is the only one with two parents who were Americans.
Trump’s mother was born a foreigner, and we only have some easily forged piece of paper that says she was ever naturalized.
Kevin M (25bbee) — 3/17/2016 @ 6:48 pmI’m a stickler for the Constitution too,
so is Cruz,
so are a lot of people here
we disagree with you as to your use of the English language
you always confabulate it as to who is serious about the Constitution.
MD in Philly (at the moment not in Philly) (1681fe) — 3/17/2016 @ 6:49 pmPS: I like Cruz, I respect him as a man, and I’m in agreement with his policies and positions. I wish he was a natural born citizen but he just isn’t, and that disqualifies Ted Cruz from the office he seeks.
ropelight (d93310) — 3/17/2016 @ 6:49 pmAs I said.
MD in Philly (at the moment not in Philly) (1681fe) — 3/17/2016 @ 6:50 pmYou don’t get to decide who is qualified, the Constitution does, thank Heaven. You are way too emotional for such a heavy responsibility.
Donald Trump will be lucky to get 20% of the vote.
Kevin M (25bbee) — 3/17/2016 @ 6:50 pmI really enjoyed that video. It got right to the point. Yeah, I get it that Trump’s fans are angry. After telling me this 5000 times maybe it’s time to consider not making things worse. Even on the issues they claim to care about.
HF is trying to get reactions. There’s no point trying to understand his reasoning beyond that.
Dustin (2a8be7) — 3/17/2016 @ 6:54 pmropelight, perhaps you recall in the last primary, when I noted Romney wasn’t going to win the general. The response shoved in my face was that Romney was beating the candidates I preferred, and therefore he was going to do better in the general.
This was and is absurd.
Trump would have been crushed by Cruz in a two man race. Much of this election has been about the establishment using Trump and others to split the vote so that they can avoid reforms that could cost them their dear corrupt system. Trump is, after all, malleable and a fan of crony capitalism. Not only is he not a direct threat to the establishment, his nomination is Hillary’s only path to the White House. The establishment would prefer to work with Hillary than Cruz, so that’s what we’re left with.
I mean no disrespect when I say you’ve been duped by both Trump and the establishment. You bring a smile to Boehner’s face.
Change your direction. Instead of spending your time angry about Cruz’s fans, some of whom have been ugly to you, consider that Cruz has kept his promises and is honest about his principles. He wants to reform immigration, the budget, and the scope of government, and he actually knows what he’s talking about. He’s a wise man who has fought against odds to protect your civil rights, which is very patriotic.
Trump the man is not the same as Trump the legend that many of his fans are supporting. The man is not interested in the political goals you hope to accomplish. He used Sessions’s platform as a stunt. He took advantage of your frustration with a frustrating situation.
Cruz, on the other hand, actually walked the walk.
Dustin (2a8be7) — 3/17/2016 @ 7:02 pmModeration, Patterico? ‘Still crazy after all these years, eh?’
In FACT, DCSCA has been predicting a Trump/Kasich ticket for months. But you know that, don’t you. Ohio has been the Midwest key to lock up the Northeast— and the nom, for Trump all along.
MAKE BOOK: 2016 tickets– Trump/Kasich vs. Clinton/Castro. Trump for the win with minimum 2.6% popular vote.
‘Pragmatic conservatism’ will finally “trump” the after birth of the Reagan Revolution. And all will be right with the world.
Here’s the deal after Kasich lands VP. Christie for AG? Good bet. Carson at SG? Maybe– something in the Cabinet. Palin- Energy Secretary? TBD…. always a joker in the deck to deal with. Cruz? The next SCOTUS slot. He’d be quite effective there, eh? Jeb can park limos at the Trump Inaugural (no tipping) and when the Trump Wa is built, Marco can be doorman at the Ivanka-El Paso Gate.
Reagan’s been out of office nearly 30 years. And dead for 12. If you’re 45 or less, he means nothing t your day to day life. The nation has had it with these unproductive ‘Plato vs. Aristotle’ arguments year after year between party hacks and elites while bridges fall, schools decay and jobs evaporate.
You’ve got a Speaker who only wants to work 130-plus days a year so he can be with his kids and watch the Packers; you have had GOP senators as candidates running who don’t show up for work or won’t compromise or cooperate, waste time and tax dollars reading ‘Green Eggs & Ham’ on the Senate floor and shutter the government. And you’ve got sitting senators who boast being strict Constitutionalists yet refuse to to their jobs on the SCOTUS nom per the very document they embrace.
Meanwhile Americans are working two or three jobs to pay for this foolishness. And they’ve had it. So Republcans, Democrats, Independents, conservatives and liberals are willing to try running the country with a doer: Trump. A guy who actually has a record of getting things done.
DCSCA (a343d5) — 3/17/2016 @ 7:13 pmIs that a prediction, a bet or a wish Kevin M?
If this country were sane he wouldn’t get 2%.
Rev. Hoagie ™ (eb7063) — 3/17/2016 @ 7:17 pmI mean no disrespect when I say you’ve been duped by both Trump and the establishment.
You see, Dustin, this is where we differ. I have no respect for anyone who supports Trump. None. Their judgement is shown to be so incredibly terrible that I cannot respect anything they say or do in the future.
Kevin M (25bbee) — 3/17/2016 @ 7:20 pmDustin, thanks for taking the time to make your case again. However, I’m not duped or confused, nor do I believe anything I think or do would please Boehner. I was opposed to him as leader of House Republicans, and opposed to his elevation to Speaker.
I’m not angry at the shabby treatment I’ve received here, I’m disappointed that people I once liked and respected have proved themselves as ugly and vulgar as the rabid hate mongers on the left.
Please note that I consider Ted Cruz ineligible for the presidency. Cruz has many admirable qualities however he’s not a natural born citizen. Case closed.
ropelight (d93310) — 3/17/2016 @ 7:21 pmKevin is exactly the sort of ugly, vulgar, rabid hate monger I referenced at #154.
ropelight (d93310) — 3/17/2016 @ 7:24 pmThat is one exceptionally snotty statement coming form someone who has done everything he can to spin, explain and ignore the not just past but the current words of his chosen candidate. Look, Ropelight, I know you are Trump booster. That figleaf of Constitutional law, however badly applied by you allows you to cover your choice. It’s way past time, dude. You really need to just stand up and say it.
Bill H (dcdd7b) — 3/17/2016 @ 7:25 pmReally, Ropelight, you can continue on this line all you like. Your right as an American citizen. But I’m doubting you’ve convinced anyone else here of your position.
Bill H (dcdd7b) — 3/17/2016 @ 7:30 pmHoagie–
I may be taking this all wrong. Maybe I should be looking at a GOP nomination of Trump as an opportunity. We’ve been talking for years about the stranglehold certain factions have on the GOP — just never quite agreed on which factions were the bad ones.
Wouldn’t it be great if there was a real Tea Party nominee, we asked. But it was never the right time because we had to win this one for the Gipper. Well now is our chance (and no, Trump is not the Tea Party candidate. He’s about as far as you can get from that).
A third-party candidate who:
* Favored a balance budget amendment, or a spending limitation amendment
* Wanted to downsize the federal government
* Wanted to return the federal government to its enumerated powers
* Believed in free enterprise and open, free markets
* Wanted to devolve social issues to the states, so that people could move if they didn’t like things
* Had as a goal the elimination of the federal government in the daily lives of the people.
* Stood for the fullest possible expression of the Bill of Rights
Maybe we could run that kind of person now. Given the two terrible alternatives, it just might work and there’s really no reason not to any more.
Kevin M (25bbee) — 3/17/2016 @ 7:30 pmRopelight’s Corollary to Godwin’s Law:
“Whenever in a discussion on Patterico’s Pontifications, a debater brings up the term ‘natural born citizen’ the thread is finished and whoever mentioned it has automatically lost whatever debate was in progress.”
Kevin M (25bbee) — 3/17/2016 @ 7:34 pmKevin is exactly the sort of ugly, vulgar, rabid hate monger I referenced at #154.
No, that would be Trump and you still don’t get the irony.
Kevin M (25bbee) — 3/17/2016 @ 7:35 pmThe thing about Kasich is that his game at this point is not so much about what he might get from Trump. It’s that he will stop cruz. He HATES Cruz, the precise same way most GOP U.S. Senators do. Kasich became quite the statist when Newt gave him the chairmanship of the House Budget Committee. Look how he has governed Ohio: Government as a solution, not the problem. He could easily be Exhibit A in any display of movement conservatives who get elected and is overcome by Potomac fever.
He finally showed his true crony capitalist colors last week, well honed in the Budget Committee, by coming out for amnesty.
This is far more about stopping Ted than it is about a Cabinet or VP slot. He’ll have earned such by doing what he naturally wants to do, anyway. Cruz must die.
My contempt for this guy, born in the mid 90s, has grown exponentially these past few weeks.
Ed from SFV (3400a5) — 3/17/2016 @ 7:38 pmKevin M (25bbee) — 3/17/2016 @ 7:30 pm
That is my dream scenario of a 4 way, all 4 of the top people are either the party nominee or an insurgency, and the Cruz conservative insurgency wins
MD in Philly (at the moment not in Philly) (1681fe) — 3/17/2016 @ 7:40 pmone can dream
You may be right, Ed,
MD in Philly (at the moment not in Philly) (1681fe) — 3/17/2016 @ 7:44 pmbut listening to Kasich, either he is a very good liar, much better than Obama or either Clinton,
or he really has visions of being the GOP savior on the second vote,
with a VP as a far second best
Bill, I’ve been pointing out that Cruz ineligible since well before the first debate. If memory serves I mentioned it on the first post Patterico did on the GOP primary – I could be a little off, but not much. The position isn’t new for me and it’s not a fig leaf, it’s black letter Constitutional law – only natural born citizens are eligible for the presidency.
Cruz was born in Canada to a Cuban father – therefore Ted Cruz is ineligible.
ropelight (d93310) — 3/17/2016 @ 7:49 pmMD – 6 of one, half-dozen the other. He has always been off the charts on the narcissistic scale, to be sure. he never saw a TV camera he would not flock to.
I would bet everything I own, and everything that YOU own, that part of this “savior” delusion is that he is “saving” the GOP and our republic from Cruz.
Ed from SFV (3400a5) — 3/17/2016 @ 7:52 pmNK, you’ll understand it eventually. Kasich’s path to victory starts with step 1: Trump doesn’t get 1237. Everything Kasich and his backers will be doing is to minimize how many delegates Trump gets. The way Kasich minimizes Trump’s delegate total isn’t by Kasich performing well in the primary contests. It’s done by Cruz performing well in the primary contests. Therefore, Cruz can make better use of campaign funds as a patsy to further Kasich’s pathway than anything Kasich can do with the funds to further his goal. Money is counter productive for Kasich if it leads to him getting more votes. That’s why Lindsey Graham is raising funds for Cruz. That’s why Kasich won’t debate unless Trump is there. Diminishing Cruz is the last thing he’d want to do. The next thing you’ll see is Kasich not contesting hard in any primary contest except the proportional ones.
jcurtis (d3065a) — 3/17/2016 @ 7:57 pmMy apologies, jcurtis. I get it. The fewer delegates Trump has, the more valuable Kasich is to him, and Cruz is better at diminishing Trump’s delegate count than Kasich would be.
nk (dbc370) — 3/17/2016 @ 8:01 pmBill Ayers talking to undercover interviewers in Chicagoabout Trump said – among other things – “there’s something loose in the land… a danger…”
Yes, Fu*kwad, that would be you.
Colonel Haiku (2601c0) — 3/17/2016 @ 8:07 pmYes Ropelight, I know you’ve been pointing that out. You’ve been continuous in doing so. But it occurs to me that just as you think we should by now show a little humility towards the inevitability of a President Trump, you need to recognize that legal minds far better than mine or yours have looked into the “natural-born” question as it relates to Cruz, and have found no problem.
By the way, you’re so strong on black letter law of the Constitution. Do you think Trump will faithfully defend, uphold and protect it? We already know about how he thinks eminent domain should work. We already know how he considers our military. For a guy that claims to love the Constitution, those right there should give you some serious pause about Trump.
Bill H (dcdd7b) — 3/17/2016 @ 8:09 pmBill, I’ve been pointing out that Cruz ineligible since well before the first debate.
yes you have,
and nothing Bill said suggests he doesn’t know that.
what he says that you ignore,
is that you have not chnaged our mind so far,
and you will not in the future
and
even if you were right
trump would never be the person I would vote for instead
for reasons I have said before, as well,
I go by what people have done,
not what they have said in the last 3 months
hint, believing what people said without any there there is what got us to this point
MD in Philly (at the moment not in Philly) (1681fe) — 3/17/2016 @ 8:12 pmTrump is more of the same
ropelight,
If your analysis of the eligibility of Cruz and Rubio were not accompanied by other comments in which you assert that Trump will “Make America Great Again” and that he will “build a wall and make Mexico pay for it” then I might be more inclined to attribute them to a well-considered (if wrong) constitutional analysis. But it is. Therefore I tend to chalk it up to what is commonly called “rationalization.”
Oddly, I can like you at the very same time that I think that you are out of your fucking mind.
Patterico (86c8ed) — 3/17/2016 @ 8:12 pmWith all due respect to the fine legal minds who’ve looked into the eligibility issue and found no problems for Cruz, these guys are dead wrong. Anyone who can read and understand the English language can see for themselves that Cruz isn’t qualified.
Additionally, I never expressed love for the Constitution. I respect it as the law of the land, most of it anyway (I’m not keen on the Civil War amendments) and I’m big on the Bill of Rights, all 10 of them.
ropelight (d93310) — 3/17/2016 @ 8:17 pmand Cruz is better at diminishing Trump’s delegate count than Kasich would be.
nk (dbc370) — 3/17/2016 @ 8:01 pm
Right. I don’t know what you meant by the first part though. Kasich performing well is useful for Trump ( to get his 1237 ) but that’s why Kasich doesn’t want to perform well. He wants Cruz to perform well. But it doesn’t hurt Kasich if Kasich performs well in strictly proportional contests. I don’t know how many of those are left.
jcurtis (d3065a) — 3/17/2016 @ 8:41 pmPatterico, what troubles me is the pathological refusal of Cruz supporters to face up to the eligibility issue. It simply will not do to ignore it, or to underestimate the extent to which it would be used to undermine a Cruz candidacy for the presidency.
To elect Hillary Dems and their media accomplices would bedevil Cruz on his eligibility like the hounds of hell. Yet, most commenters pretend it’s not an issue – sort of like the response that Global Warming is settled science.
ropelight (d93310) — 3/17/2016 @ 8:42 pmropelight,
MD in Philly (at the moment not in Philly) (1681fe) — 3/17/2016 @ 8:44 pmwhat troubles us is your “dam*ed I am right no matter how many thousands of people disagree with me”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G2y8Sx4B2Sk
and what Patterico said
MD in Philly (at the moment not in Philly) (1681fe) — 3/17/2016 @ 8:44 pmWe don’t pretend it’s not an issue, we know it’s not an issue. It is only an issue to you and your “unique” definition that shockingly has never been applied by a Court in our history. But you know better.
JD (34f761) — 3/17/2016 @ 8:45 pmand your blindness to the tons of crud Trump will get hit with
MD in Philly (at the moment not in Philly) (1681fe) — 3/17/2016 @ 8:47 pmpeople hurt by his bankruptcies while he was smiling rich
Trump U.
tons of clips of him saying all kinds of things, including “I’ll sue them to shut them up”
yeah
Sorry fellas, that’s the way I see it. MD, it’s my opinion, mine, and it’s not up for a vote.
ropelight (d93310) — 3/17/2016 @ 8:49 pmI heard Hugh Hewitt on the radio. He said Trump supporters are making it hard to convince the 60% (who don’t support Trump) that Trump would act reasonably if he were elected. Their approach is like Trump’s — bullying instead of persuasive.
He also discussed with a caller whether Trump would negotiate anything with anyone, including negotiating away basic conservative principles or trading a Supreme Court nominee to the Democrats for something Trump wants more. They agreed he might.
DRJ (15874d) — 3/17/2016 @ 8:51 pmThe biggest irony is that the Trumpkins are demanding we fall in line behind an unprincipled loon that will somehow make us great again, and he happens to be the least electable person left on the ballot, on either side of the aisle.
JD (34f761) — 3/17/2016 @ 8:51 pmUsing words like stupid and pathological to describe Cruz supporters, or anyone who doesn’t support Trump, is an example of what Hewitt is talking about.
DRJ (15874d) — 3/17/2016 @ 8:54 pmropelight-
MD in Philly (at the moment not in Philly) (1681fe) — 3/17/2016 @ 8:54 pmexactly,
you weasel and change the goalposts
you are entitled to your opinion about the meaning of the phrase
you are a little less entitled on claiming that so many others don’t know how to read and understand English
what troubles me is the pathological refusal of Cruz supporters to face up to the eligibility issue. It simply will not do to ignore it, or to underestimate the extent to which it would be used to undermine a Cruz candidacy for the presidency.
ropelight (d93310) — 3/17/2016 @ 8:42 pm
The eligibility clause is xenophobic and should be ignored because it’s mean spirited. That was the one piece of the Constitution that George Washington brought to the document. Washington was a slave holder. So you birthers and your Constitutional absolutism need to just zip it.
jcurtis (d3065a) — 3/17/2016 @ 8:54 pmjcurtis, you’re putting me on, right?
ropelight (d93310) — 3/17/2016 @ 9:04 pmI only do false flags as illustrative sarcasm. I sucks that I always have to point that out.
jcurtis (d3065a) — 3/17/2016 @ 9:08 pmaww shit. “it”, not “I”.
jcurtis (d3065a) — 3/17/2016 @ 9:10 pm“I see Gondwane as it shall be in the untold ages of dim futurity, near the time when the Earth shall be man’s habitation no more, and the great night shall enfold all, and naught but the cold stars shall reign. The first sign of the end ye shall see in the heavens, for Lo! the moon is falling, falling. And there shall come a man into the lands, a man not like other men, but with a badger upon his head.”
With apologies to Lin Carter.
nk (dbc370) — 3/17/2016 @ 9:25 pmEff you, up the a*s witha rusty pineapple sideways. Ropelight, MD in Philly, me, Patterico etal are arguing about how the Constitution applies. Considering your post, you should be grateful for it’s existence.
Bill H (dcdd7b) — 3/17/2016 @ 9:30 pmbut with a badger upon his head
So, the apocalypse descends from Wisconsin?
JJ Watt is the wrecker of Havock??
Bill H., I could be wrong, but I don’t think he was being serious
I once took someones head off, only to be told i was missing the sarcasm
MD in Philly (at the moment not in Philly) (1681fe) — 3/17/2016 @ 9:36 pmI think it was Stashiu3 that clued me in
The UK game is over, my father is asleep
MD in Philly (at the moment not in Philly) (1681fe) — 3/17/2016 @ 9:37 pmand I bid you Gute nacht
I, for one, am very angry that a black-robed junta hijacked the glorious American Revolution in 1803. The interpretation of the Constitution, whether natural born citizen, the Tenth Amendment or wifi as a human right, is properly in the province of a majority of the people as they may, from time to time, be represented by their democratically elected representatives in Congress. FREEDOM NOW!
nk (dbc370) — 3/17/2016 @ 9:37 pmNo no no, MD, I hadn’t even considered that as serious. I didn’t get the reference- I’m not a very literary guy- but that last line made me smile. If it wasn’t clear, my last response was for jcurtis.
NK, if you got caught in the crossfire, my apologies.
Bill H (dcdd7b) — 3/17/2016 @ 9:47 pmme, Patterico etal are arguing about how the Constitution applies.
Bill H (dcdd7b) — 3/17/2016 @ 9:30 pm
“How the Constitution applies”. That vague statement can be read several ways.
jcurtis (d3065a) — 3/17/2016 @ 9:48 pmUnd auch, MD. Guten Schlaf.
Bill H (dcdd7b) — 3/17/2016 @ 9:48 pmAaahhh, I miss Stashiu3
Leviticus (a6edbd) — 3/17/2016 @ 9:52 pmSchlafen Sie Gut, peeps.
carlitos (c24ed5) — 3/17/2016 @ 10:02 pmjcurtis was not being serious either, Bill H. See his comment #186 at 9:08 pm and ropelight’s just before.
nk (dbc370) — 3/17/2016 @ 10:05 pmYou and me both.
Patterico (86c8ed) — 3/17/2016 @ 10:15 pmHe also discussed with a caller whether Trump would negotiate anything with anyone, including negotiating away basic conservative principles or trading a Supreme Court nominee to the Democrats for something Trump wants more. They agreed he might.
My biggest concern about Trump is that he’s far too philosophically wishy-washy, too much an opportunist and gameplayer in the interest of protecting his huge ego and popularity with New York’s and DC’s left-leaning elite. But Kasich is totally guaranteed to be that way, too liberal for his (or a sensible nation’s) own good and, not helping matters, skittish about appearing to be even a bit politically incorrect (ie, honest about hard, cold reality).
Ted Cruz is ideologically the most reliable and well-grounded of the Republican candidates, but in a society full of people whose hearts melt for horrible, corrupt liberals like Hillary, etc — and who will never give such ridiculous benefit of the doubt to a staunch conservative who’s even a bit tarnished or rumpled — Cruz has to be perfect in every way possible (ie, the aspects of him that affects people’s visceral response), but regrettably he isn’t.
Mark (cf81e7) — 3/17/2016 @ 10:26 pmI call that bold talk for a one eyed fat man.
papertiger (c2d6da) — 3/17/2016 @ 10:36 pmThat’s a quandary NK, because he certainly didn’t sound like he was unserious. Perhaps I’m too sensitive. I know WTP will agree with that. But I have grown rather weary of people saying nasty, snotty, f**ked up things, and then attempt to cover it up with “What? I was only joking!” or “I was just being sarcastic!”. Pro tip guys: if you want your sarcasm to come across as sarcasm, you need to let it tip the reader off. This:
is not sarcasm. It was merely a badly played appeal to history in an attempt to get both me and Ropelight to shut up. Judging form jcurtis’ answers to both me and Ropelight, it didn’t work too well.
Bill H (dcdd7b) — 3/17/2016 @ 10:38 pmNow that’s sarcastic.
Bill H (dcdd7b) — 3/17/2016 @ 10:42 pmFor a Rubio to carry the nation while screwing the public over on immigration, he would need to pick up seventy one percent (71%) of the hispanic vote, drawing 45% of it from Hillary and the Democrats.
For Trump to carry the nation all he needs do is pick up 4% of the white vote. Just motivate 4% of the disaffected, who are never courted by politicians, and he wins the White House.
papertiger (c2d6da) — 3/17/2016 @ 10:49 pmRemember that in your Utah caucus, while you brow beat your Trumpets.
papertiger (c2d6da) — 3/17/2016 @ 10:52 pmjcurtis was not being serious either, Bill H. See his comment #186 at 9:08 pm and ropelight’s just before.
nk (dbc370) — 3/17/2016 @ 10:05 pm
I’m always deadly serious. The sarcasm I wrote was to diminish those who oppose Ropelight’s constitutional absolutism on the eligibility clause. Cute thing is that the ones calling themselves “Constitutionalists” are usually the ones who most adamantly refuse to acknowledge the real intention of the eligibility clause and label those who do acknowledge the intentions as “birthers”.
It might be because Cruz is the most talented person in congress who unfortunately doesn’t qualify for the presidency due to the eligibility clause. I’d be a Cruz backer if he was eligible.
That’s not to say Cruz hasn’t shown some real bad judgment. I’m not talking about the “lying Ted” stuff. Trump looks like a joke to call someone a liar who merely points out Trump’s old positions. I’m not talking about the stuff against Carson. I thought that was legitimate opportunism. ( By the way, if Carson wants to give Trump credit for “it worked” by comparing Carson to child molesters, why doesn’t he give Cruz “well, it worked” credit for pushing the perception that he was dropping out to make caucus goers switch in Iowa? )
The stuff where Cruz hooked up with Soros, blm, riot commies in Chicago was terrible. I mean, that’s almost terrorist sympathizing code pink stuff. Terrible judgement by Cruz.
jcurtis (d3065a) — 3/17/2016 @ 10:56 pmQue the trumpets. (YouTube)
papertiger (c2d6da) — 3/17/2016 @ 10:56 pmLeviticus, Patterico: I third the motion (of missing Stashiu3). What happened to him?
aphrael (3f0569) — 3/17/2016 @ 11:26 pmI think Kasich’s game is to force the convention to take drastic action against Trump and gain the nomination for himself. The blue-blood delegates will nominate him over Cruz.
Rokshox (706f15) — 3/18/2016 @ 1:06 amOur leaders in D.C. are give in specialists. I remember Americans were seen as arrogant, free spending, free spirited and PROUD.
mg (31009b) — 3/18/2016 @ 3:35 amNow we are seen as the worlds problem. Cruz or Trump will give us our PRIDE back, with some arrogance we can kick some democrats azz. If you won’t vote for one of these two, your a commie lover.
If it comes down to Hillary vs. Trump , I almost think Hillary would be better. Trump will spend 4 years just redecorating the WH at the expense of tax dollars and with the use of ILLEGALS.
Hillary and Trump are both democrats. I almost want to see the beast hung out to dry for 4 years and then Ted would be Good and Gold in 2020. America deserves what it gets. Cruz should not have to be crucified in order to help the people.
jrt for Cruz (bc7456) — 3/18/2016 @ 4:37 amK-sick is an ass
jrt for Cruz (bc7456) — 3/18/2016 @ 4:43 amLikely some kind of weird “math” going on there. Like when papertiger suggested that an Iowa caucus location where (it was said) no one heard the rumor of Carson dropping out was representative of how Iowa as a whole would have gone. Carson got 10% there vs 13% statewide while Trump got something like 15% more than he did statewide. Aside from the 3% Carson differential not equating to a 15% Trump differential, it also implied that a rumor of Carson dropping out caused lots of people who had been planning to vote for Trump to switch to Cruz.
If Trump loses, as the polls clearly show he will, I predict the resident Trumpers will continually deny that there were polls showing Trump doing much worse against Clinton (and Sanders for that matter) than the other leading Republican candidates.
Gerald A (945582) — 3/18/2016 @ 6:10 amAll the polls are wrong because they are assuming the wrong things.
I am sure they will improve over the coming months..
1) Black turnout won’t be the same (polls won’t really capture this)
2) Trump will get more blacks (though polling will help get a good estimate on this)
3) Hispanics might turnout higher which is bad for Trump (but again, who knows)
4) Millenials hate Trump but they hate Hillary (turnout will be diff then most polls and models assume)
5) Blue Collar Whites might flood the ballot box
So, I find folks citing polls as lacking in the understanding of math and process. EITHER side using polls this election to determine out come by exploding quantifiable assumptions (which polls do good at) through turnout models (which polls don’t do good at) will get smoked.
Who will you vote for based on age/race/blah/blah — very accurate.
Will you show up to vote based on age/race/blah/blah — not so accurate.
Rodney King's Spirit (a089dc) — 3/18/2016 @ 7:29 am210. In 2012 I had a 0 – 60 (Senate) – 300 (House) mindset after my guy Newt was cast aside. I switched back to Mitt b/c of the goof-ups of Mourdock and the guy from Missouri. If there is resignation to Hillary, the 60 and 300 part of that equation has to be paramount.
urbanleftbehind (5eecdb) — 3/18/2016 @ 7:31 amWTH are you talking about?
Milhouse (87c499) — 3/18/2016 @ 7:35 am“Likely some kind of weird “math” going on there.”
No. David Byle and Sean Trende developed an electoral unicorn widget (scroll to midpoint) and if 4% of the white population can be convinced to change their historical voting pattern – Viola! President Trump. We would also have had the second term of H.W. Bush and McCain and Romney could have been elected by the same very simple maneuver.
Head to head polling at this point is non-predictive but it does provide baseline spreads by which progress (or complete lack of progress) can be measured. Trump has had the lead in five out of forty-nine polls against Clinton. Three of the five polls in which he had the lead were Fox (ratings driven?).
Rick Ballard (ba78e0) — 3/18/2016 @ 7:44 amIf it comes down to Hillary vs. Trump , I almost think Hillary would be better.
I’m reading that some Republican insiders or party bigwigs not only feel the way you do, but they actually believe godawful, 100%-liberal Hillary would be better than Trump. That mindset is why you have Paul-Ryan Syndrome among more than a few of the party faithful, perhaps even people who (for some odd reason) deem themselves conservative. But that’s conservatism in the context of America 2016.
Conservatism where a person now is a rabid rightwinger if he or she believes in, for example, civil unions but not same-sex marriage, or that it’s okay if food stamps are plentiful but they shouldn’t be allowed to cover the purchase of brie and champagne, or that public schools would be more effective in educating young people not so much if they were staffed by fewer clueless liberals, but if their budgets were raised a wee bit higher (not a whole lot, just some—and wasn’t that budget sequestration a few years ago somewhat heartless!?), or that should fascism arise in Western society (ie, the US or Europe), it will take the form of an angry white/Anglo but not an angry Islamicist immigrant from the Middle East or a native converted to Islam.
Mark (f68e9f) — 3/18/2016 @ 7:46 amTrump supporters see Trump as a way to reset the Republican Party but, except for immigration, most of his policies are the same as Democrats and establishment Republicans. I understand Trump supporters are mad and want to remake the Republican Party, but a lot of NotTrump people feel the same way.
Stopping Trump may be as important as stopping McConnell and the rest of the GOP establishment because he’s going to be one of them on most issues — including immigration since political negotiating in Washington isn’t as easy as negotiating construction contracts. For people who want to change the Republican Party but don’t believe Trump can do it, not voting for Trump (or maybe even voting for Hillary) is the answer.
DRJ (15874d) — 3/18/2016 @ 8:13 amyes yes Hillary is the answer
this is obvious to anyone who is willing to do the analysis
happyfeet (a037ad) — 3/18/2016 @ 8:17 amTrump supporters often talk about being willing to “burn it all down.” Why are they surprised that other people are equally willing to do whatever it takes to change the way things work in Washington?
DRJ (15874d) — 3/18/2016 @ 8:40 am28. It’s been called ‘willful ignorance’.
DNF (755a85) — 3/18/2016 @ 8:58 am220. Because you’re not and you won’t, it’s just self-delusion contrary to all evidence.
DNF (755a85) — 3/18/2016 @ 9:01 amThe issue? You mean the part where ropelight’s mind-controller tells him Cruz isn’t eligible cuz o’ Canaduh?
Yeah, that’s a real hurdle.
Steve57 (08b8c6) — 3/18/2016 @ 9:02 amThe reason why polls at this stage can be well off is that often one or both candidates aren’t well known yet, so the situation is fluid. Once they get to know the candidates better there may be large changes. That’s especially true when there’s an incumbent in the race. People who haven’t paid much attention yet select the incumbent because they know nothing about the challenger. This situation does not resemble that scenario.
The polls may be non-predictive because the turnout assumptions on which they are based could be well off in Hillary’s favor, as pointed out in #213. To just assume that’s the case is pretty stupid. For example I can’t imagine blacks not turning out or coming over to Trump. The kind of campaign he has run makes that implausible.
Thus everything hangs on the possibility of lots more whites coming out to vote.
The problem with that widget is that it implicitly assumes everyone who voted for Romney is voting for Trump. In the case of Cruz and Kasich it might be a good assumption but clearly not in Trump’s case. If that was true then we wouldn’t be seeing these clear differences in how Trump does against Hillary compared to Cruz, Kasich and some other Republicans. Even if the turnout assumptions in those polls are off they clearly prove Trump won’t get all of Romney’s voters.
Thus Trump’s starting point, before factoring in additional white voters, is behind Romney, not even with him. To assume he starts with Romney’s vote and just add on additional white turnout to it is totally stupid.
Gerald A (945582) — 3/18/2016 @ 9:18 amPoint to bear in mind. The Baltimore police trials are going to go on through at least July, and probably longer. Expect an acquittal a month, each one further enraging low information black voters; we may or may not see more riots, but expect to see high black turnout in November, just as we did in the aftermath of St Trayvon. If anyone’s wondering how Moseby is bringing such unwinnable cases in the first place, that’s the reason.
Milhouse (87c499) — 3/18/2016 @ 9:30 am(or maybe even voting for Hillary) is the answer.
Whether maybe or most certainly, sorry, but I think if a person truly observes innate liberal or conservative biases in their fellow humans, and if that person truly senses the US has gone off into a ditch because of too much liberalism, then the idea of voting for horrible Hillary wouldn’t even cross his or her mind. I’m not even dealing with the issue of how such a person judges the ethics and integrity of a candidate he’s willing to put into the White House.
If such a conservative, however, finds him or herself angling exactly towards the “maybe Hillary” position, then he of all people had better look in the mirror when the phenomenon of Paul Ryan comes up, or when the back-slapping dynamics of Mitch McConnell enter the conversation. Or most definitely when the goo-goo-eyed responses of folks like Peggy Noonan circa 2008, much less circa 2012, are being looked upon with gap-mouthed wonder.
Mark (6c93d5) — 3/18/2016 @ 9:31 amThe Obama admin shows one thing, that the United States can survive eight years of a malignant America hater as President.
We are a robust group of people. We have idiot proof institutions.
So when cruisers claim President Trump will be a type of disaster, that just shows their willingness to say anything, however stupid or dishonest, to support their guy.
The brass fact is Ted Cruz can’t pull 4% of blue collar Democrats to cross the aisle.
Trump can. Not only can he do that, he has pulled more than that already.
As far as policy is concerned there is a yawning chasm between the policies of American hating Hillary, and Make America Great Again Trump.
papertiger (c2d6da) — 3/18/2016 @ 9:59 amYour concerns with the minutia of policy positions are a candle flicker to the bonfire difference in ethos we will get from a Trump Presidency.
Gerald A,
IMO – the problem with a race based electoral unicorn widget, aside from the fantastical nature of the “easy” moves which can be developed, is that it ignores the reality of level of subsidy driving voting on a very rational basis for those receiving subsidy. Romney’s ascription of 47% as being subsidy receiving was close for the general population but high for the voting population. The 12-15% of the population most in actual need of subsidy do not vote. Those upon whom the financial burden of care would fall should the subsidy be reduced or removed do vote and they most assuredly will not be voting for anyone promising to reduce or remove subsidies. The Millenials have assumed close to a trillion dollars in non-dischargeable debt used to pay for higher indoctrination over the past eight years and promises of debt relief weigh upon their voting decisions in the same manner which promises to extend and increase EBT subsidies weigh upon those who normally vote for their living.
I wasn’t disagreeing with what you wrote, I was providing a link to a widget which allows one to claim the precise distance from reality required to create an electoral unicorn.
Here is another handy dandy tool to measure the distance from reality of the Trump Unicorn. There is still time for a trend reversal but greater exposure and familiarity do not, as yet, appear to be engendering good will.
Rick Ballard (ba78e0) — 3/18/2016 @ 10:15 amYour mocking of Trumpets, flattering yourself that you can see inside our minds, it’s akin to the media attacks on tea partiers.
It’s like Telemundo editors complaining about equality. How many white reporters does Telemundo employ? How many blacks? Zero and zero.
papertiger (c2d6da) — 3/18/2016 @ 10:17 amDonald Trump is The Trumpet, I’m just an Internet Tantara echoing his glad tidings in a remote corner of the blogosphere to a largely unappreciative audience, many running low on hearing aid batteries.
ropelight (dec58b) — 3/18/2016 @ 10:31 am“Thus Trump’s starting point, before factoring in additional white voters, is behind Romney, not even with him.”
Quite true.
Don’t worry though. Take a look at the YUUUGE wings on that unicorn.
Rick Ballard (ba78e0) — 3/18/2016 @ 10:37 amI enjoy being mocked. It shows me you have no response to what I said.
I don’t agree. I can’t change the direction of the Democratic Party but there is a small chance that I and people like me can change the direction of the Republican Party. Like Trump followers, the way to do it is to defeat the GOP establishment candidates and push America so far left that people will decide enough us enough.
The Trump followers say Trump is the way to do that but I think they are wrong about Trump — that is is a McConnell at heart and will do deals all day long. (Trump even brags about how he “does the best deals.” McConnell loves deals, too.) Why should I take a chance on Trump? He needs to give me a reason to trust him.
DRJ (15874d) — 3/18/2016 @ 10:46 am#231, DRJ, talk about Stage 1 thinking – jeez. Have you ever heard a Leftist say the way to move the country further left is to push it so far to the right that people will decide that enough is enough, recoil and turn the rascals out?
The GOP controls both the House and the Senate, now we have an opportunity to win the White House, and Holier than Thou Conservatives are insisting they get the candidate (ineligible or not) of their choice or they’ll throw the election to the most corrupt politician since US Grant.
Now, where is the sense in that?
ropelight (dec58b) — 3/18/2016 @ 11:28 amI think you have him confused with Hillary! and Bernie. They are the communists. If You believe that “the way to do it is to defeat the GOP establishment candidates and push America so far left that people will decide enough us enough” you’re crazy. If you let the left have any more there is no return. It may already be too late and I believe it is but I certainly won’t help Hillary! or Bernie win. You all should be willing to vote for happyfeet if it stops those Two!
Rev. Hoagie ™ (e4fcd6) — 3/18/2016 @ 11:40 am@210 jrt for Cruz
Cheer up. Ted seems to be following the 1976 Reagan playbook.
Only four more years of Malaise.
pinandpuller (928ad9) — 3/18/2016 @ 12:14 pmAnyone who thinks Hillary is better than Trump is an idiot who has no idea what Leftism is. And not only that, has ignored what a third term of Obola would mean to the nation.
Rodney King's Spirit (a089dc) — 3/18/2016 @ 12:58 pmThe GOP controls the House and Senate because conservatives and the Tea Party united to make that happen, but the GOPe ignored us. We need to do more to get their attention.
Cruz actually opposes and has opposed the establishment, and based on his past behavior I believe Cruz would continue to do so as President. The only thing Trump’s past words/actions tell me he would do is: (1) hand out money when he wants something (only now it will be our money instead of his lenders’ money) and (2) build a ballroom for the elaborate parties he plans to give.
DRJ (15874d) — 3/18/2016 @ 4:34 pmAnd build a wall, but only if he can do it with Mexico’s money. I see a pattern here, do you? Mr Trump likes to spend other people’s money.
DRJ (15874d) — 3/18/2016 @ 4:36 pmHis campaign proves it.
DRJ (15874d) — 3/18/2016 @ 4:36 pmYou need to explain to me just how a self-funded campaign “proves” he likes to spend other people’s money.
Rev. Hoagie ™ (e4fcd6) — 3/18/2016 @ 4:40 pmI mean DRJ, I’m with you that Trump is an A-hole but he’s no commie like BOTH democrat candidates. If the democrats would run actual democrats instead of Josef Stalin’s evil children I could go along with you but I won’t vote for a commie. Trump is a loud-mouthed, vulgar, stupid, narcissistic crony capitalist but he ain’t no commie.
I know the left hates Trump because he’s the ultimate un-PC. He’s Tall, white, blond, heterosexual, Protestant and rich so to them he personifies evil but why the hate from normal conservatives? He’s a douche but at lest he’s our douche. Their douches are, once again, commies!
Rev. Hoagie ™ (e4fcd6) — 3/18/2016 @ 4:47 pmNot totally self-funded is he!
Fundraising Details
Campaign Committee Outside Groups Combined
Total Raised $25,526,319 $1,894,509 $27,420,828
Total Spent $23,941,598 $1,823,720 $25,765,318
Cash on Hand $1,584,721 $70,789 $1,655,510
Debts $17,534,058 – –
Date of Report January 31, 2016 March 07, 2016 –
Source of Funds
legend
Yoda (feee21) — 3/18/2016 @ 4:47 pmlegend Individual Contributions
– Small Individual Contributions
– Large Individual Contributions $7,497,985
$5,626,992 (22%)
$1,870,992 (7%) (29%)
legend PAC Contributions $0 (0%)
legend Candidate self-financing $17,784,377 (70%)
legend Federal Funds $0 (0%)
legend Other $243,957 (1%)
Button, button, who’s got the button?
nk (dbc370) — 3/18/2016 @ 4:56 pmhttp://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2016/feb/10/donald-trump/donald-trump-self-funding-his-campaign-sort/
http://www.politico.com/story/2015/10/donald-trump-fec-fundraising-214838
https://www.opensecrets.org/pres16/contrib.php?cycle=All&id=N00023864&type
https://sunlightfoundation.com/blog/2015/11/13/donald-trump-may-be-a-self-starter-but-hes-not-self-funded/
From the FEC for February:
Of Receipts And Disbursements
Column A
This Period Column B
Election
Cycle-To-Date Column C
I. Receipts
16. Federal Funds (Itemize on Schedule A-P) 0.00 0.00 0.00
17. Contributions (other than loans) From:
(a) Individuals/Persons Other than Political Committees
(i) itemized 232,381.21 1,871,111.94 0.00
(ii) unitemized 708,626.35 5,626,872.56 0.00
(iii) Total contributions 941,007.56 7,497,984.50 0.00
(b) Political Party Commitees 0.00 57.62 0.00
(c) Other Political Committees 0.00 0.00 0.00
(d) The Candidate 31,751.95 250,318.96 0.00
(e) Total Contributions (11(a) + (b) + (c) + (d)) 972,759.51 7,748,361.08 0.00
18. Transfers From Other Authorized Committees 0.00 0.00 0.00
19. Loans Received:
(a) Loans Received From or Guaranteed By Candidate 4,913,761.00 17,534,058.41 0.00
(b) Other Loans 0.00 0.00 0.00
(c) Total Loans (19(a) + (b)) 4,913,761.00 17,534,058.41 0.00
20. Offsets to Expenditures (Refunds, Rebates, etc):
(a) Operating 234,581.56 243,899.54 0.00
(b) Fundraising 0.00 0.00 0.00
(c) Legal and Accounting 0.00 0.00 0.00
(d) Total Offsets To Expenditures (20(a) + (b) + (c)) 234,581.56 243,899.54 0.00
21. Other Receipts (Dividends, Interest, etc) 0.00 0.00 0.00
22. Total Receipts 6,121,102.07 25,526,319.03 0.00
II. Disbursements
23. Operating Expenditures 11,497,007.83 23,677,801.33 0.00
24. Transfers to Other Authorized Committees 0.00 173,050.00 0.00
25. Fundraising Disbursements 0.00 0.00 0.00
26. Exempt Legal and Accounting Disbursements 0.00 0.00 0.00
27. Loan Repayments Made
(a) Repayments of loans Made or Guaranteed By Candidate 0.00 0.00 0.00
(b) Other Loans 0.00 0.00 0.00
(c) Total Loans (27(a) + (b)) 0.00 0.00 0.00
28. Refunds of Contributions To:
(a) Individuals/Persons Other Than Political Committees 3,698.15 90,746.73 0.00
(b) Political Party Committees 0.00 0.00 0.00
(c) Other Political Committees 0.00 0.00 0.00
(d) Total Contribution Refunds (28(a) + (b) + (c)) 3,698.15 90,746.73 0.00
29. Other Disbursements 0.00 0.00 0.00
30. Total Disbursements 11,500,705.98 23,941,598.06 0.00
III. Contributed Items (stock, Art Objects, Etc.)
31. Items On Hand To Be Liquidated 0.00
(End Detailed Summary Page, FEC FORM 3P)
Yoda (feee21) — 3/18/2016 @ 5:00 pmJust another lying liar that lies. POS, he really is!
Yoda (feee21) — 3/18/2016 @ 5:02 pmhttp://www.fec.gov/disclosurep/pnational.do
You can see for yourself!
Yoda (feee21) — 3/18/2016 @ 5:04 pmYoda beat me to it, Hoagie. (Thanks, Yoda.) Trump is making sure that he and his businesses will get reimbursed/paid first, before vendors, lenders, and creditors. That’s also a familiar tactic. He learned it in bankruptcy court.
DRJ (15874d) — 3/18/2016 @ 5:06 pmTrump loans money to his campaign.
DRJ (15874d) — 3/18/2016 @ 5:10 pmYeppirs, he even has “loans” to finance his candidacy. Can you declare bankruptcy on those also? Be just like him it would! Can’t say it enough, but he is a POS to the max!
Yoda (feee21) — 3/18/2016 @ 5:11 pmOver 10 million so far!
Yoda (feee21) — 3/18/2016 @ 5:12 pmTrying to show his Donate button that is at the top of his webpage, but it must be hanging in moderation. Guess Pat doesn’t allow linking to clowns!
Yoda (feee21) — 3/18/2016 @ 5:22 pmIt’s simple. Once Hillary is elected, she or her donors will pay off Trump’s campaign debt to Trump. The way Obama’s donors paid off Hillary’s campaign debt. TRUMP IS WORKING FOR HILLARY!
nk (dbc370) — 3/18/2016 @ 5:38 pmWell, according to the FEC forms all that bluster about self-funding was just more Trump BS. I wish I could say I’m surprised but I’m not. Thanks Yoda for reprinting it here. I cut and pasted it for myself to send to other people I know who support Trump. You never know what piece of information may be the one that brings a friend to our side. Thanks again.
It really is getting more and more difficult to understand how anyone can support this guy.
Rev. Hoagie ™ (e4fcd6) — 3/18/2016 @ 6:13 pm