Patterico's Pontifications

3/15/2016

Tuesday Primaries – Open Thread; UPDATE: Rubio Suspends Campaign

Filed under: General — JD @ 4:11 pm

[guest post by JD]

My predictions (they will likely be wrong)

Trump in FL less than majority

Kasich in OH

Trump in IL with late surge due to moveon, Ayers, and the rest of the out of control demonstrators. 

Cruz in MO. 

I’m sure there are others but these are the ones that have been getting the most attention. 

What say you?

——-JD

UPDATE BY PATTERICO: Rubio just announced that he is suspending his campaign.

UPDATE x2 BY PATTERICO: Kasich wins Ohio per Fox and CNN. I think this is probably good for Trump haters. I don’t know how much it hurts Cruz for Kasich to stay in, and denying Trump the delegates is good.

The Dishonest Trumpeter Narrative: “We Switched from Cruz to Trump After Chicago!” Is a Lie

Filed under: General — Patterico @ 7:51 am

The most important thing for Ted Cruz supporters to do today is not despair at the results. It gets better after today. When Trump people wage psychological warfare, we must remember that it’s phony and dishonest like the man himself — as I will prove in this post.

Let’s go straight to their phony psychological warfare. Trump people have been pushing a narrative that says: “I was for Cruz until he failed to support Trump’s free speech in Chicago on March 11. Now I’m all in for Trump.” This narrative is a lie from top to bottom.

First, let’s look at some of the messages to that effect on Twitter:

Nothing weird about that!

The link in these posts goes back to a comment at the conspiracy-theorist and pro-Trump (and anti-Cruz) site Conservative Treehouse. Yet, you’ll be shocked to learn, these people supported Trump long before March 11. I got into an amusing quarrel with one of them, and the tweets are instructive. Here they are making the declaration that they were having trouble deciding between Cruz and Trump right up to March 11, when the Trump Chicago rally was canceled:

3/11 changed it for you? ORLY?!

So, there’s that. There’s also the fact that Cruz laid the blame squarely on the protesters as well as on Trump’s violent rhetoric.

We need to learn to have disagreements without being disagreeable. To have disagreements while respecting human beings on the other side. Earlier today over thirty people were arrested at one rally. And then tonight, as violence broke out, the rally was canceled all together. Now, the responsibility for that lies with protesters who took violence into their own hands. But in any campaign responsibility starts at the top. Any candidate who is responsible for the culture of the campaign. And when you have a campaign that disrespects the voters, when you have a campaign that affirmatively encourages violence, when you have a campaign that is facing allegations of physical violence against members of the press, you create an environment that only encourages this sort of nasty discourse.

Trumpeters took that statement and went around saying that Cruz supports the protesters.

Because Trumpeters are dishonest. Like their candidate.

The dishonesty and fanaticism of Trumpeters is also important to keep in mind when you consider the poll that had 22% of people saying Chicago made them more likely to vote for Trump, with only 11% saying it would make them less likely to vote for him. I saw otherwise smart people claiming this represented an 11 point gain for Trump. Bull! It’s already-committed Trumpeters who form the 22%. That should be obvious to anyone observing how that core group acts.

So, back to today. The ideal scenario is: Rubio is crushed in Florida. Hopefully he gets out, and if not is a nonentity going into Utah, where Cruz will do great. This means the conservative, limited government vote will not be split going forward. Cruz gets it.

I’m okay with whatever happens in Ohio. If Kasich wins, he splits the Democrat vote going forward. If he loses, hopefully he’s out.

Missouri and Illinois, I worry, will be disappointments. If Cruz pulls out a win in one or both, I’ll be thrilled. But they’re open primaries, and Trump does well in those on account of him being a Democrat.

The thing is, going forward after today, more and more of the primaries will be closed. Cruz kills it in those primaries. With Rubio marginalized, he’ll start to pick up momentum and could easily re-set the race — unless everyone despairs and concedes the whole race after today.

Don’t fall for the dishonest Trumpeter narrative. Hold your head high and look forward to March 22.


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