Patterico's Pontifications

2/4/2016

Campaign Notes: February 4, 2016

Filed under: General — Patterico @ 6:44 pm



LOOKS LIKE CARSON IS OUT!

Remember how awful Steve King was for saying it looked like Ben Carson was out . . . when CNN reported that Carson was virtually skipping New Hampshire for a “change of clothes” that he could have arranged for in many ways that did not involve jetting home to Florida?

Well, at the risk of being accused of fraudulent behavior on behalf of Ted Cruz . . . it looks like Ben Carson is out, pretty much. He slashed half his staff today.

JIMMY CARTER LOVES HIM SOME TRUMP

Jimmy Carter says that, if he were forced to choose between Ted Cruz and Donald Trump, he would choose Trump because Trump is “completely malleable” and has no fixed opinions that he would go to the White House and fight for. Meanwhile, Cruz would actually pursue those awful right-wing policies he says he believes in. I’m Ted Cruz and I approved this message!

PLEASE CLAP

Pathetic, but kind of endearing. But mostly pathetic.

THE DONALD’S LIES ON HIS GROUND GAME

I didn’t get to this yesterday, but The Donald was quoted yesterday morning saying, basically, what’s a ground game?

“I think we could’ve used a better ground game, a term I wasn’t even familiar with. You know, when you hear ‘ground game,’ you say, ‘What the hell is that?’ Now I’m familiar with it,” Trump said on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe” when asked if his campaign needed better organization to win in Iowa.

Let me interject here to say that I have heard of a “ground game” and I am more than 20 years the junior of Mr. Trump. But I follow politics and have a basic level of curiosity about the subject (and about life in general). Also I am not a giant liar. Digression over. Moving on:

“I think in retrospect we should’ve had a better ground game, I would’ve funded a better ground game,” he continued. “But people told me my ground game was fine. And I think by most standards it was.”

Well. On December 19, 2015, Trump seemed to know what a ground game was, and his was totally wicked!

Christmas carols played, lights twinkled and Donald Trump touted his Iowa ground game in Cedar Rapids on Saturday.

As Christmas and caucus day inch closer, reports in The Des Moines Register and The New York Times have questioned whether Trump’s campaign has been effective in lining up precinct captains and laying the groundwork to ensure his supporters turn up on caucus day.

Trump forcefully refuted that notion Saturday in front of a crowd of more than 1,000, saying everyone would see the fruits of the campaign’s labor come Feb. 1.

“We’ve got such an incredible ground game,” he said.

Some chumps bought the line. As late as the day of the caucuses in Iowa, Steve Berman at The Resurgent told his readers: “Let’s not underestimate Trump’s ground game.” And Jazz Shaw at Hot Air told his readers on January 6, 2016 that “Trump has been quietly building a serious digital data team to turn out his voters” and that “If everyone is underestimating Trump yet again it will probably be familiar territory to him. The man seems to have made his living off that.” How does that sucking up look now?

I think I have adequately shown that Trump (like some of the chumps who bought his line of B.S.) is full of it.

Please clap.

P.S. Trump isn’t changing a thing about his ground game in New Hampshire. Which brings me to my final topic of the day:

EARLY PREDICTIONS

Feel free to leave yours in the comments.

59 Responses to “Campaign Notes: February 4, 2016”

  1. That “please clap” line is a keeper.

    Patterico (86c8ed)

  2. Any chance Carson was, in his line about clothes, obtusely alluding to the naked emperors running around DC?

    Trump 28
    Rubio 23
    Cruz 16

    Ed from SFV (3400a5)

  3. Trump 28
    Rubio 26
    Cruz 17
    Kasich 15

    Dejectedhead (81690d)

  4. Think well of Cruz even if I prefer Trump. But Cruz and his campaign would be surprised and overjoyed to get Patterico’s result. Cruz needs to hang in their and pick up some delegates until he takes Texas.

    Bugg (fa64ec)

  5. . . . it looks like Ben Carson is out, pretty much. He slashed half his staff today.

    Yeah, I think something like that would not sit very well with most voters.

    nk (dbc370)

  6. it seems clear to me, that carson was sabotaged early on, from the inside, from the incident about the memoir, which politico and the journal teamed up on, moving on to claridge’s knife to the back, it as if they forget about the costs of betrayal,

    http://www.steynonline.com/7445/that-smell-isnt-the-ethanol

    narciso (732bc0)

  7. I’m all-in for Cruz. I think a Cruz/West ticket would be great. But I believe, with New Hampshire being a suburb of Boston, and their record of being much squishier than most Republican regions, they won’t have enough votes to have Rubio and Cruz both near the top. I think the Democrat Trump takes New Hampshire on the Republican side. The Socialist Sanders should take it on the Democrat side.

    John Hitchcock (0cf3d9)

  8. I would be very pleased if I were wrong and Trump was a LOSER in the first two states.

    John Hitchcock (0cf3d9)

  9. Jimmy Carter. Sheesh. He’s probably the only guy on the planet who disliked Ronald Reagan as a person.

    That would be a cleverly subversive TV ad if Team Cruz were to literally just run Carter’s endorsement of Trump. The passive viewer might at first believe it was paid for by Trump (after all, most candidates don’t run ads which show a prominent person endorsing their OPPONENT!) Then at the end of the commercial, it would matter of factly say, ‘Paid for by Ted Cruz for President.’

    I can already hear the cries of “Dirty tricks!” by Trump Incorporated.

    Cruz Supporter (102c9a)

  10. as for iowa, getting some up close and personal attention, as a floridian, I say after you alfonse, now the fact the dem party chair there, is a shill for red queen, complete with a hillfor president 2016 bumpersticker,

    narciso (732bc0)

  11. If Kasich or Christie get above 5 points, that will draw down Trump’s votes. Kasich and Christie don’t hurt Cruz or Rubio, because they’re squishes. And Christie is a loud-mouth squish, a la Trump.

    John Hitchcock (0cf3d9)

  12. Cruz Supporter, when Trump was asked about Carter’s endorsement, Trump praised Carter for his good taste.

    John Hitchcock (0cf3d9)

  13. I am leaning towards Cruz, like Patrick. Even if Hillary, shudder, wins, at least Cruz will articulate the Anti-Big Government position and give people something to think and talk about in years to come. So many people just don’t know there is anything to government besides “free stuff.”

    Patricia (5fc097)

  14. That would be a cleverly subversive TV ad if Team Cruz were to literally just run Carter’s endorsement of Trump. The passive viewer might at first believe it was paid for by Trump (after all, most candidates don’t run ads which show a prominent person endorsing their OPPONENT!) Then at the end of the commercial, it would matter of factly say, ‘Paid for by Ted Cruz for President.’

    That’s . . . what happened. Watch it again.

    Patterico (86c8ed)

  15. yes all’s fun in love and war, until they show in red queen’s column, then the festivities will begin, because it’s not about trump, but treating those interested in his issues like carp always works well,

    narciso (732bc0)

  16. By the way I guess a Democrat debate is going on. Does anyone care? I sure don’t.

    Patterico (86c8ed)

  17. Someone emailed Rush about a new drinking game for the Democrat debate.

    Every time one of them suggests a new idea for giving out freebies, take a drink from someone else’s cup!

    John Hitchcock (0cf3d9)

  18. The Democratic debate is impressive.

    I’ve never seen seniors stay up so late.

    Dejectedhead (81690d)

  19. Patterico, ha, ha, silly ol’ me, I jumped to the always entertaining comments threads before I actually clicked on the video which you’d already posted.
    Good commercial, Team Ted!

    Cruz Supporter (102c9a)

  20. Jimmy Carter, because of his generally avuncular, gray-hair quality, reminds me of the late CBS broadcaster Walter Cronkite. Or someone on the surface who apparently is quite intelligent (ie, in terms of rote ability, in terms of the speed with which a person’s brain processes information, etc) and presumably down-to-earth (ie, Carter’s small-town southern roots, Cronkite’s Midwestern origins). But you then observe the way such people think and write, what they admire or dislike, and realize at that moment just how astonishingly, appallingly super liberal they really are.

    The Carters and Cronkites out there, decades (or eons) past their youthful college years, still misjudge both people and situations in a manner that defies belief.

    Mark (f713e4)

  21. I watched one minute, then ran before Madcow could speak. But in that one minute, I got the impression that, regardless of the outcome of the election, Bernie and Hillary were going to elope.

    nk (dbc370)

  22. Rubio’s path to the nomination depends on getting Trump and Cruz to continue the game of Let’s you and him fight.

    ropelight (b3812c)

  23. I’ve never seen seniors stay up so late.

    It’s like seeing cats up past noon.

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  24. Rich Lowry pointed out yesterday that while mocking The Prima Donald’s “Trumpertantrum” was clever and effective, the way to really deliver a body blow to Trump is to point out how the dude constantly, continually falls short of his own hype. After promising glorious, overwhelming victory in the Hawkeye state, the night belonged to Senator Cruz, whom he seemed to think would wither into dust and float into the breeze once he clenched his famous stubby fingers together and gave his former bro the Caesarian thumbs-down.

    Trump wants you to believe the reason he’s become a demigod — besides being born to a couple of geniuses and being a genius himself, proved by his Ivy League degree (at Penn) — is because of his ability to identify and manage eminently talented underlings (bold mine):


    “We have lost control of our country,” he added. “We’ve lost control of our borders.”

    Again Stephanopoulos pressed for specifics, asking Trump “exactly how are you going to do it?”

    “George, it’s called management,” Trump replied. “And the first thing we have to do is secure the border. But it’s called management.

    Not satisfied, Stephanopoulos continued to press.

    “George, I’m telling you, it’s called management,” Trump explained.

    Before moving on, Stephanopoulos complained that he was still not hearing specifics, prompting the real estate tycoon to spell it out for him.

    “I’m going to get great people that know what they’re doing,” Trump said. “Not a bunch of political hacks that have no idea what they’re doing, appointed by President Obama, that doesn’t have a clue.”

    Hmmm. Barack Obama won Iowa twice. Maybe he should’ve hired some of his hacks.

    L.N. Smithee (e750c1)

  25. And here I thought that Trump was hoping Cruz and Rubio fought. Christie sure is.

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  26. well they have done what they promised with the plougshare peace pledge, they couldn’t make electricity prices spike naturally, but the epa is getting the job done, they pretend they don’t know what happened at the va, not with the kindest, bravest mr shinseki in charge,

    narciso (732bc0)

  27. It is kind of funny seeing Scott Adams backing the pointy-haired boss for president.

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  28. so they get what they demand, there is no prolife, pro second amendment nominee, in their spring surprise, unlike say wilhemina wright, who was just confirmed,

    narciso (732bc0)

  29. I’ve never seen seniors stay up so late.

    Dejectedhead (81690d) — 2/4/2016 @ 7:24 pm

    How is it you think most Denny’s are 24hr restaurants?

    Bill H (dcdd7b)

  30. And here I thought that Trump was hoping Cruz and Rubio fought. Christie sure is.

    Kevin M (25bbee) — 2/4/2016 @ 8:10 pm

    Izzok. Like I’ve said elsewhere, watching Trump on the stump is sort of like watching the Hansen Brothers play hockey.

    Bill H (dcdd7b)

  31. By the way I guess a Democrat debate is going on. Does anyone care? I sure don’t.

    Well, if the questions were asked by a Fox panel of, say, Hannity – Kelly – Hume it might be entertaining. That would be about as fair as the Wallace – Kelly – Baier panel they hit the GOP with.

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  32. How is it you think most Denny’s are 24hr restaurants?

    I thought it was AA meetings.

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  33. Serving up brown trout for dinner.

    Karl Rove despises Donald Trump, and Trump despises Rove. Nevertheless, Rove all but declared that Trump had Iowa stolen from him by Ted Cruz. — from http://www.steynonline.com/7445/that-smell-isnt-the-ethanol

    Testimony from a political enemy who despises you, setting the record straight. Facts laid out with timeline.

    You can’t buy that, even if you are Trump.

    papertiger (c2d6da)

  34. Missed a close tag in there somewhere.

    papertiger (c2d6da)

  35. Cruz supporter @#9…
    Your wish was already granted by Thursday afternoon:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F1tIH5XhXa0

    Evan3457 (057459)

  36. Oh, almost forgot, another website (The Right Scoop) had that Carter ad for Cruz up at 1:28 pm yesterday.

    Evan3457 (057459)

  37. I should read through a thread before posting. Sorry about that.

    Evan3457 (057459)

  38. Ted Cruz campaign official letter

    Press reporting Carson taking a break after Iowa

    Dear Don,

    Breaking News. The press is reporting that Dr. Ben Carson is taking time off from the campaign trail after Iowa and making a big announcement next week.

    Please inform any Carson caucus goers of this news and urge them to caucus for Ted Cruz.

    For liberty.

    Spence Rogers

    Iowa
    TedCruz.org

    Quoting Karl Rove:

    At 7:53 the Carson people send out a release saying, “We’re here. We’re staying in the race. We’re going to New Hampshire and South Carolina.” And at 8:20 the national co-chairman of the Cruz campaign, Steve King, sends out a tweet saying, “It looks like Carson is getting out of the race.” Now they knew at this point that this was inaccurate.

    Senator Cruz in his initial explanation about this said we were sending it to our team, leaving the implication, I suspect, to most viewers, that this had to do with sending it out to staff members. No, no, no… They sent this to their nearly 1,500 precinct captains. There are 1,500 precincts in the state. And they sent this message from Spence Roberts (Rogers). Now why does that matter. Now the gap between Donald Trump and Ted Cruz is 6,239 votes. There are 1,500 precincts. Do the math… If that message cost Carson four votes per precinct to switch to Cruz, then Cruz beats Trump. If he doesn’t switch four, then he loses.

    So when Cruz Supporter deliberately misrepresents what others (myself included) say on this blog, he is just emulating his candidate.

    papertiger (c2d6da)

  39. Note that the Cruz campaign just made up the part about “a big announcement next week.” Neither Carson nor CNN had said any such thing. Cruz’s forces made that up and included it in the memo to drive home the false impression that Carson was dropping out of the race.

    The memo is on Cruz campaign letterhead and signed by Spence Rogers, who is Cruz’s deputy director for the state of Iowa. So, while I haven’t seen any report on whether Cruz was personally aware of, or involved in, the memo, it came from a relatively senior source in his campaign.

    Excuse me. I shouldn’t say Cruz Supporter is emulating Ted Cruz himself, but rather he is emulating Ted Cruz’s hired surrogates.

    Detail is important.

    papertiger (c2d6da)

  40. Carson–who accepted Cruz’s apology–held a press conference on Wednesday, saying that he believes the messages sent out by the Cruz campaign damaged his results in Iowa.

    On Thursday, he sent a message attacking the Cruz campaign, saying that “no attempts were made to verify the truth” about his departure, and that “no actions have been taken to correct the problem.”

    In one precinct, where the Cruz captain didn’t receive the note, the results of the caucus were;

    Donald Trump = 33

    Sen. Marco Rubio = 15

    Ben Carson = 12

    Sen. Ted Cruz = 12

    Carly Fiorina = 3

    Jeb Bush = 2

    John Kasich = 1

    Chris Christie = 1

    Sen. Rand Paul = 0

    Ric Santorum = 0

    Mike Huckabee = 0

    Isn’t that special?

    papertiger (c2d6da)

  41. Like I said before, Iowa caucus does one thing pretty well.

    It shows who will cheat.

    Main reason why there was no winner, on the Democrat side of the Iowa caucus.

    I find the Democrat result deeeeeelightful!

    papertiger (c2d6da)

  42. Karl Rove has sex with pigs.

    nk (dbc370)

  43. Rove, no doubt is a squealer.

    mg (31009b)

  44. Pig rescues baby goat.

    Not really a metaphor, but…

    Well. There it is.

    papertiger (c2d6da)

  45. luntz fox rnc
    rubio and amnesty 2016

    mg (31009b)

  46. Will New Hampshire like that Trump confirms he is flexible (in Carterspeak, malleable) when it comes to policies? No rigid policy plans for Trump.

    DRJ (15874d)

  47. rubio 22
    trump 20
    Ted 18

    mg (31009b)

  48. In one precinct, where the Cruz captain didn’t receive the note, the results of the caucus were;

    Donald Trump = 33

    Sen. Marco Rubio = 15

    Ben Carson = 12

    Sen. Ted Cruz = 12

    Carly Fiorina = 3

    Jeb Bush = 2

    John Kasich = 1

    Chris Christie = 1

    Sen. Rand Paul = 0

    Ric Santorum = 0

    Mike Huckabee = 0

    Isn’t that special?

    papertiger (c2d6da) — 2/5/2016 @ 2:43 am

    Let’s see, Trump got 24% overall but in this precinct he got 33%. What would somebody who possesses some logical cognitive processes conclude from that? Obviously, the claim that Carson was dropping out depressed Trump’s vote by 9 points statewide! In other words, people who were planning on voting for Trump in the other precincts heard Carson was dropping out, and upon hearing that, decided not to vote for Trump!

    Meanwhile Carson got 12% in that precinct vs 9% over all, while Cruz got 12% vs 28% overall. Therefore, we should conclude that 16% difference in Cruz’s vote totals were due to a 3% drop off in Carson’s totals in the other precincts.

    Gerald A (5dca03)

  49. #48

    Those apparently are vote TOTALS, not percentages. So in that district, Trump got 41% vs 24% statewide.

    Gerald A (5dca03)

  50. At 7:53 the Carson people send out a release saying, “We’re here. We’re staying in the race. We’re going to New Hampshire and South Carolina.” And at 8:20 the national co-chairman of the Cruz campaign, Steve King, sends out a tweet saying, “It looks like Carson is getting out of the race.” Now they knew at this point that this was inaccurate

    Steve King is an extreme hardliner on immigration, that is to say, flaunting human indifference, and probably intentionally dishonest as well – any person motivated by the desire to do good, or the golden rule would not have his positions, so it is not surprising to me he would be flagrantly dishonest over here. The only reason he didn’t choose Trump is because Trump is a loner in politics.

    Sammy Finkelman (dbec95)

  51. Carson isn’t out, but some of his staff is, and they knew it was coming, and tried to help some oher campaign(s) by saying something that made it appear Carson was quitting.

    Sammy Finkelman (dbec95)

  52. The Cruz people jumped on that much too fast – and also went too far beyond it – for them not to have been prepared for some kind of news report that could be used to say Carson is quitting. That’s the kind of thing I am/was thinking. I don’t knowtaht to be a fact. I’m just suspicious.

    It might actyally have been people in several campaigns working together. It’s maybe revenge on Carson also for letting them go so soon, before all the money runs out.

    Sammy Finkelman (dbec95)

  53. Oh come on P.

    When Trump says he didn’t know the term “ground game” he didn’t specify when he learned of the term.

    He just might mean that he didn’t know it before he ran for president, and learned it at some point in the process, not that he didn’t know it AFTER the Iowa caucuses were completed.

    I’m voting for Cruz. Trump will win NH, and fade quickly from there.

    Mike S (89ec89)

  54. Cruz must be gaining support; the LAT today has begun the demonization of Cruz.

    Patricia (5fc097)

  55. “We’ve got such an incredible ground game,” he said.

    Is anything he does ever not incredible?

    Gerald A (5dca03)

  56. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/marco-rubio-stole-ted-cruzs-iowa-bounce/
    The elites will push hard for this amnestarian.

    mg (31009b)

  57. I’m a Cruz supporter, but pessimistic about New Hampshire. Predictions: Trump 29%, Rubio 20%, Cruz 15%, Jeb! 13%, Kasich 9%, Carson 7%, Fiorina 5%, Christie 2% (after the hug he gave Hitlery today)

    Vigilant Patriot (ce868a)


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