[guest post by JVW]
In the aftermath of last night’s close call in the Democrat’s Iowa caucus, commentators seem to be divided on what the results portend for the party. A quick round-up is as follows:
Paul Mirengoff at Powerline says that the result is bad for Senator Bernard Sanders (I-VT) as he needed a clear-cut win in order to cut into the formidable polling lead of First Lady/Senator/Secretary Hillary! Rodham National Security Clinton: “Going into tonight, I thought that Bernie Sanders needed to win the Iowa caucus to sustain his long shot campaign against Hillary Clinton (absent FBI/DOJ action against Hillary). After all, Iowa is tailor-made for a Sanders-style insurgent. If Sanders couldn’t win there, where (other than in his home territory) could he win?”
Mark Steyn headlines his piece “Second Degree Bern” and agrees with Mirengoff that while Sanders inflicted some damage, he needed an outright win: “. . . given the demographic difficulties he faces in South Carolina and beyond, Sanders needed to inflict actual defeat on Hillary. He needed headlines saying: ‘BERNIE WINS!’ And he didn’t get that. She certainly felt the Bern, but it wasn’t a third-degree Bern.”
Over at National Review Online, Jim Geraghty finds the result to be a complete disaster for the Once-and-Future-Inevitable Next President of the United States: “Don’t let any Hillary fan tell you this wasn’t a collapse. She was ahead by 12 in mid-January. She came out last night for a not-quite-victory, not-quite concession speech decked out in blood red and glaring angrily and hard in her tone.”
Agreeing with Geraghty is Mollie Hemingway at The Federalist: “Her ‘victory’ speech was the most depressing of the night. The body language on the stage said it all. Clinton’s daughter Chelsea gave her a comforting — almost pitying — hug. Clinton’s husband Bill looked sad and had trouble keeping his mouth from sagging. The crowd was dejected. Clinton herself was tense, yelling at voters in seeming anger. She’s just a terrifically bad candidate who will also lose in New Hampshire.”
Don’t be fooled, writes Jonathan Tobin at Commentary, Clinton’s path to the nomination is still open: “Sanders will likely win in New Hampshire, but his inability to edge out the former First Lady in the first-in-the-nation caucus robbed him of any chance of creating a narrative in which Clinton’s hold on the nomination had cracked. Though the Vermont senator will likely hang around in the race for as long as he can, he has little hope of winning many states after next week.”
Neil Stevens over at Red State insists that last night’s results settled the Dem nominee once and for all: “Hillary Clinton: She survived. That’s all she needed. [. . .] Bernie Sanders: This was one of his most favorable states. He failed. He’s done, he just doesn’t know it yet.”
Moving away from conservative media and over to our libertarian friends at Reason, Ed Krayewski, who yesterday pointed out that 43 percent of Democrats in Iowa are self-described socialists, finds Sanders’ performance a bit underwhelming: “Between the large pool of friendly voters and the fervor of Sanders supporters, if the democratic socialist can’t win in what’s effectively a two-person race in Iowa, it’s unlikely he’ll do better anywhere else.”
At CNN, the lamentably stupid Sally Kohn insists that both Clinton and Sanders came out looking okey-dokey: “The unkempt progressive once thought to only be competitive in the Northeast is now in a neck-and-neck race with the Democratic establishment candidate in the heartland of America. That isn’t just a victory for Sanders. That’s a victory for anyone who believes in democracy.”
Kohn’s less daffy colleague, Maeve Reston, opines that the results spell a bad night for Hillary!: “Clinton found herself once again struggling to prove what is supposed to be the selling point of her campaign: dominance and electability. Instead, even if she eeks out a win late tonight by a fraction of a percentage point, the Iowa caucuses looked like a defeat for the former Secretary of State. Once again, she has been knocked back on her heels by a challenger who her campaign did not take seriously until late in the race.”
Doug Schoen over at Fox is of the opinion that Clinton’s lead with black voters is too much for Sanders to overcome: “South Carolina and the Super Tuesday states are very different demographically and politically. Furthermore, some of Clinton’s best numbers come from her support with minorities. Just days ago, 28 black ministers endorsed her and she leads Sanders 63 percent to 20 percent [among blacks] and is up 54 percent to 33 percent with Latino voters.”
Checking in with the far left, John Nichols of The Nation believes that irrespective of who gets the delegates, it’s Sanders’ ideas that have won: “No matter what the final count, the real victory for Sanders came before the caucuses convened. He had already so transformed the contest that Clinton was forced to run a different race than she had intended.”
At Mother Jones, David Corn is looking past the Clinton-Sanders contest to see progressivism on the rise in the party, and believing that as long as Sanders can stay at roughly 40 percent in the polls the Democrats will continue to drift to the left: “Forget about Iowa for a moment—especially now that this unrepresentative event is done—and look at the average of the national polls in the Democratic race. Clinton leads Sanders, 52 to 37 percent. Sanders’ take is darn close to that 40 percent mark long associated with the progressive wing. Sanders surpassed that level in Iowa, and he’s likely to do so in New Hampshire, where three recent polls have put his lead over Clinton between 20 percent and 31 percent. Yet in the long run, can he continue to stay above 40 percent—particularly when the contest shifts to states with more diverse electorates (meaning more black and Latino voters) and states where voters are less familiar with this self-proclaimed socialist?”
So there you have it. Last night’s result on the Democrats’ side shows that Hillary! has the nomination nailed down yet is in deep trouble, that Bernie is finished as a candidate yet will continue to play spoiler, and that minorities who are supposed to be the progressive bulwark of the party will stop the socialist candidate in his tracks and hand the nomination over to the woman who turned her support of big banks and the military industrial complex into $250,000 appearances at corporate retreats full of millionaires who are apparently wrecking the economy for the rest of us and $150,000 speaking fees at college campuses which are populated by young progressives who overwhelmingly love the aging white male candidate. Your Democrat Party in a nutshell, folks.
– JVW