Patterico's Pontifications

2/1/2016

Iowa Caucuses: Open Thread

Filed under: General — Patterico @ 5:29 pm



Anything can happen.

P.S. Predictions are welcome. I have said I think Cruz will take it. It goes against the conventional wisdom, but I’m sticking with it.

UPDATE: Favorite retweet of all time.

Screen Shot 2016-02-01 at 7.59.31 PM

UPDATE x2: Victory.

309 Responses to “Iowa Caucuses: Open Thread”

  1. Dingalooskie.

    Patterico (86c8ed)

  2. So, that’s today?

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  3. 30 minutes in, and not much action.

    felipe (56556d)

  4. i’m a go bed soon this is very exciting but i’m a sleepy picklehead

    happyfeet (831175)

  5. The winners will be Trump and Sanders. I guarantee it – unless I’m wrong.

    Gerald A (7c7ffb)

  6. Too bad there’s no football game on, or Cruz would come in 5th. If I owned a chain of bars, tonight would be 50-cent beer all night.

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  7. Urrr I meant Trump

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  8. Damn spellcheck.

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  9. I think it was wise for Ben to suspend his campaign.

    I don’t think everyone should drop out, especially this year. Everyone says Trump is gaffe-proof, but he is until he isn’t, and I think that adds an element of unpredictability because without if he went the way of Herman Cain then it would be anyone’s race.

    That said, I would like to see Jeb and Kasich out. Too bad Jeb isn’t the RINO this year as he is a lot better than Rubio in my opinion.

    Dustin (2a8be7)

  10. felipe, the reason there’s no results yet is because it’s a caucus—not a primary.

    They actually don’t convene until 7pm, and typically a supporter of each of the candidates gives a speech. Then they take a straw poll to see where everyone stands. Then the supporters of the top-tier candidates will attempt to twist the arms of the supporters of the also-ran candidates to just man up (or lady up) and choose one of the top-tier candidates. Then everyone votes. Then the local GOP officials will tally it up, and then the results will be reported. And this year, they’ll be reported via Microsoft software rather than by telephone.

    Cruz Supporter (102c9a)

  11. I know that. I was referring to the lack of comments.

    felipe (56556d)

  12. felipe, that’s cool, uh, although your comment occurred only one minute after the thread began.

    Cruz Supporter (102c9a)

  13. I do not watch TV, so I am on Politicodotcom

    felipe (56556d)

  14. I didn’t know the thread had just begun. I assumed it started earlier.

    felipe (56556d)

  15. Teh tearful Kasich was validated by the NYT… he’s in it, but not to win it.

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  16. But I see now that the thread has a time stamp.

    Filed under: General — Patterico @ 5:29 pm

    I learned something new.

    felipe (56556d)

  17. I am pulling for teh Cruz. We’ll see.

    felipe (56556d)

  18. Well, felipe, it’s been said that you learn from your mistakes.
    And that’s why I never learn anything.

    John Hitchcock (b09b88)

  19. T. Cruz 31.1% 1,290
    D. Trump 30.0% 1,245
    M. Rubio 15.9% 658
    B. Carson 9.3% 386
    R. Paul 4.4% 184
    J. Bush 2.3% 96
    C. Fiorina 1.6% 67
    J. Kasich 1.6% 67
    M. Huckabee 1.4% 60
    C. Christie 1.4% 58
    R. Santorum 0.7% 31
    Other 0.1% 3
    J. Gilmore 0.0% 0

    Read more: http://www.politico.com/2016-election/results/map/president/iowa#ixzz3yyHZiQ14

    felipe (56556d)

  20. LOL, John. I’ll use that sometime.

    felipe (56556d)

  21. John P. Frey, you’re a public employee that has no worry about getting laid off or otherwise getting canned. If you were in the private sector, like I was, it’s a Jihad against white males. Spend some time in my shoes or others like me, and you might begin to understand what Trump is all about. It’s revolution time!

    http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2016/02/01/pat-caddell-were-in-a-pre-revolutionary-moment-and-now-bigger/

    dee (3305c2)

  22. Sorry, I forgot to wipe off the link. Are eschewing that site?

    felipe (56556d)

  23. we, that is.

    felipe (56556d)

  24. Always trust content from Patterico!

    Robert C. J. Parry (7f3a34)

  25. felipe,

    There are now 25 comments in less than half an hour.

    I think people are going to be discussing this tonight — and unlike debate night, when I was out of town, I’ll be here.

    Patterico (86c8ed)

  26. felipe, you sound nervous, bro. Have a drink.

    Cruz Supporter (102c9a)

  27. I will not be drinking until it is over. But you go right ahead.

    felipe (56556d)

  28. I will not be drinking until it is over. But you go right ahead.

    I’m not sure whether you were talking to me but OKAY!

    Patterico (86c8ed)

  29. He was talking to Cruz supporter right above him.

    John Hitchcock (b09b88)

  30. I said OKAY!

    Patterico (86c8ed)

  31. Thanks narciso, I totally like that interactive county map better than clicking through the counties at Politico..

    felipe (56556d)

  32. Maybe I get Ted Cruz’s sense of humor because people say he has no sense of humor just like they say about me the bastidges

    Patterico (86c8ed)

  33. Thank you for that, narciso. Now, let’s hope the GOP trend continues.

    John Hitchcock (b09b88)

  34. The Macallan to the rescue. Neat.

    Patterico (86c8ed)

  35. LOL, that’s the spirit, Patterico!

    felipe (56556d)

  36. Well, Patterico, yer yellah!

    John Hitchcock (b09b88)

  37. Are there any rubio fans active on this site?

    Dustin (2a8be7)

  38. Dustin, that’s a good question.

    I’d love to interrogate, er, chat with, them.

    Patterico (86c8ed)

  39. Dustin – I prefer Cruz, followed by Rubio. For very different reasons.

    JD (534747)

  40. If my commnts strtt too look lyk thiss youll know two much The Macallan.

    Patterico (86c8ed)

  41. Dustin – I prefer Cruz, followed by Rubio. For very different reasons.

    My sentimonies exactly. Cruz, because he’s Cruz. Rubio, because he’s not Trump.

    Patterico (86c8ed)

  42. Cruz 30%, Trump 27%, Rubio 19% just now.

    Dana (86e864)

  43. Dana,

    I’d like that as a final result.

    Patterico (86c8ed)

  44. So far, Cruz’ machine has done the job. The yoooooge turnout is a big, big problem, though.

    Ed from SFV (3400a5)

  45. Republican

    15.3% Reporting

    Delegates Allocated: 0/30
    T. Cruz 29.8% 5,701
    D. Trump 27.3% 5,233
    M. Rubio 18.9% 3,613
    B. Carson 10.3% 1,967
    R. Paul 4.3% 830
    J. Bush 2.1% 411
    M. Huckabee 1.9% 360
    C. Fiorina 1.8% 353
    J. Kasich 1.4% 263
    C. Christie 1.1% 215
    R. Santorum 1.0% 189
    Other 0.1% 14
    J. Gilmore 0.0% 2

    felipe (56556d)

  46. I sincerely hope Cruz wins, tonight. Taking the good with the bad, I prefer him over any other remaining candidate, despite his lack of executive experience.

    Dianna (004c4f)

  47. Interesting, Hillary 52%, Bernie 48%.

    Dana (86e864)

  48. Keep my Twitter account @patterico handy too, if you do the Twitter. (That should be good for three comments denouncing Twitter.) I am on that, mostly retweeting interesting stuff culled from @allahpundit, @justkarl (Karl!!), @seanmdav, and @DecisionDeskHQ.

    And if you’re on Twitter and not following me then what the hell?

    Patterico (86c8ed)

  49. Hi Dianna!

    Patterico (86c8ed)

  50. So far, Cruz’ machine has done the job. The yoooooge turnout is a big, big problem, though.

    Seems like it. I HATE yuuuge turnout. The fewer voters the better, I always say.

    Patterico (86c8ed)

  51. I guess I’m wondering why Jeb is doing SO poorly versus Rubio. I think I just don’t get it, but don’t they represent very similar principles, only Bush was a decent governor and has gravitas, and Rubio is a Webelos touring DC who missed the bus back to camp so decided to play Senator.

    Dustin (2a8be7)

  52. It looks like Huck and Santorum will throw behind Trump because somehow he’s more religious and conservative than Cruz, but do their supporters follow then? I say this because they went to Trump’s non-debate event, and they’ve made some comments that were questionable….

    Dana (86e864)

  53. well, I for one would like the full experience. so I go to twitterdotcom then what? Please do’n tell me I have to register. that would be so “your papers, please!”

    felipe (56556d)

  54. That is excellent news from Kelly that it’s a dead heat. That is 20%+ better than the DMR poll!

    Ed from SFV (3400a5)

  55. Mike Huckabee’s political demise may be the best thing to come out of this primary process.

    Patterico (86c8ed)

  56. Cruz is my first choice, and Rubio is my second choice. We need a conservative who can express himself and articulate the virtues of conservative values and public policies—and who doesn’t back down. We haven’t had that in a nominee since Reagan. (Kemp ’96 was awesome, and Cheney, too, but they were each the VP nominee.)
    After Cruz and Rubio, I like Fiorina next.

    Cruz Supporter (102c9a)

  57. A dead heat despite historic turnout? Reeeeeeally hopeful news for us Cruzers.

    Ed from SFV (3400a5)

  58. Patterico (86c8ed)

  59. Dustin,

    Bush has no vigor, charisma or youthfulness. All of which Rubio does. And Rubio has been far more compelling on the trail than sleepy Bush. Both establishment, but Rubio checks all the boxes for that type of voter.

    Dana (86e864)

  60. I don’t think you give Rubio nearly enough credit for being a dynamic speaker, telegenic, and likeable. I guarantee you that the people just on this site follows the policy wonk stuff more closely than 99.5% of voters.

    JD (534747)

  61. Yep, gotta register. Forget that, twitter. Thanks fer nuthin’!

    felipe (56556d)

  62. A dead heat despite historic turnout? Reeeeeeally hopeful news for us Cruzers.

    Let’s not get ahead of ourselves. But, fingers crossed? (I can do that because I don’t have Donald Trump’s horrible stubby fingers.)

    Patterico (86c8ed)

  63. @Felipe 2/1/2016 @ 6:11 pm 15.3% reporting.

    That seems very consistent with the latest pre-caucus Des Moines register poll and the projections, including the slight upsurge by Rubio, except for the fact that Christie is doing much worse (1.1% instead of 3%, and so is Santorum (1/0% instead of 2%) and Kasich also somewhat (1.4% instead of 2%) This is of course, only a partial sample.

    Sammy Finkelman (dbec95)

  64. The early returns should be from smaller caucuses.

    Sammy Finkelman (dbec95)

  65. Hi, Patterico!

    Dianna (004c4f)

  66. 1/4 of the results in and it’s still 30/27/19. I did not expect this. Why the hell couldn’t Carson have called it a day, a day earlier?????

    Ed from SFV (3400a5)

  67. The whole Trump fingers thing has really grossed me out. Like his hair was unavoidable, it screams at you to stare at it. But now, thanks to Twitter, I’ve started noticing his doughboy fingers, and ew…

    Dana (86e864)

  68. I expect Kasich and Bush to stick through NH, but Christie looks like a goner among the governors. He was talking about coming in ahead of the other two, but he seems to be trailing. By his own test, he’s done.

    Huckabee is done and so is Santorum. If they can’t do well in Iowa… Not sure if it matters who they throw their meager support to.

    Rand should quit and so, sadly, should Carly. They’ll probably slide on another week, but unless there’s a miracle in NH, they are out, too. Carly would make a good VP for Cruz or Rbio.

    Ben Carson could be a kingmaker, though.

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  69. JD at #60 has a really good point. It’s easy, when you’re listening to Rubio, to sort of enjoy how he speaks without noticing that there’s a government program lurking in every beautifully turned period.

    Or at least that’s what I thought.

    Dianna (004c4f)

  70. Ed —

    When Ben endorses, he wants it to be for effect. To do that he had to rack up some numbers.

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  71. JD–

    I’ve said for some time I think that Cruz is overrated as a debater, but Rubio scares me spitless.

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  72. Dustin, I don’t get your intense animus against Rubio.

    Gang of 8? Okay, but he backed off from it. Rookie mis-judgment. No law was passed. As they say in basketball, no harm, no foul. He put his hand under the hot water faucet, and he knows not to do that again.
    We don’t really have a deep bench to choose from who can win a national election, so we have to make due with our potential dancing partners rather than the proverbial fantasy dancing partner of Ginger Rogers (who was politically conservative, by the way! LOL)

    Cruz Supporter (102c9a)

  73. JD at #60 has a really good point. It’s easy, when you’re listening to Rubio, to sort of enjoy how he speaks without noticing that there’s a government program lurking in every beautifully turned period.

    Yup.

    Patterico (86c8ed)

  74. I don’t think you give Rubio nearly enough credit for being a dynamic speaker, telegenic, and likeable.

    Sounds true to me. I used to really like Perry for his resume and was blown away that people cared so much that he had such poor stagecraft.

    My big hangup with Cruz and Rubio is their lack of executive experience a re-elected governor would have.

    Plus the only debate I really watched was the latest one, and Jeb was pretty decent that round.

    Dustin (2a8be7)

  75. Dianna,

    Bush and Rubio are selling similar things. Rubio just has nicer packaging. And a less complicated last name.

    Dana (86e864)

  76. I don’t want us to get ahead of ourselves, but so far so good. I like it when Nate Silver says this:

    With 19 percent of Iowa precincts reporting, Donald Trump has 27.1 percent of the Iowa vote. That’s not a bad result by any means: Trump trails Ted Cruz by just 3 points and could very easily win the state. Still, a case can be made that (contra the pundit conventional wisdom at the time) Trump was mistaken to have skipped last week’s debate.

    If you have paid ANY attention here at all, you know that I bucked this “conventional wisdom” and said that people have been so spooked by Trump’s seeming Teflon characteristic that they were reluctant to call an obvious mistake a “mistake.”

    This doesn’t mean he wins tonight . . . but I stand by my firm conviction that he was an IDIOT to skip the debate.

    Patterico (86c8ed)

  77. 30% in – still 30/27/29

    Ed from SFV (3400a5)

  78. 30/27/19 oops

    Ed from SFV (3400a5)

  79. My big hangup with Cruz and Rubio is their lack of executive experience a re-elected governor would have.

    I have to talk you out of this, Dustin. I would choose a five-year-old who promised to shrink government.

    Patterico (86c8ed)

  80. 30/27/19 oops

    Let’s be clear:

    CRUZ 30
    Trumpkins 27
    Rubio 19

    Patterico (86c8ed)

  81. Oh, very true, Dana.

    It’s rather like I keep saying to people – I like Chris Christie’s stage persona a great deal. I have watched him win over a hostile crowd, and I enjoy his style a lot. But I listen to what he says, not just how he says it. He’s not a small government conservative (well, he’s from New Jersey, so this is not a surprise), and he’s got a number of extreme negatives for me (hello, gun rights!), but I still like him.

    I just won’t vote for him given a choice.

    It’s the same thing with Rubio.

    Dianna (004c4f)

  82. > I would choose a five-year-old who promised to shrink government.

    The promise means nothing without the demonstrable skill at doing it, I would warrant. 🙂

    aphrael (e0cdc9)

  83. If the pander king can’t run away with Iowa, there may be hope for America.

    Beldar (fa637a)

  84. 33% – slight decrease for Cruz and Trump. Still 30/27/19

    Ed from SFV (3400a5)

  85. I have to talk you out of this, Dustin. I would choose a five-year-old who promised to shrink government.

    Then thank God Trump did not promise that.

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  86. Beldar, I assume you mean Trump, but there is considerable competition for that title. Kasich comes to mind.

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  87. BTW, Ben Carson is not suspending his campaign. He is going home “to get some fresh clothes” then out onto the trail again Wednesday.

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  88. Rubio make his move to the inside…

    Republican

    36.6% Reporting

    Delegates Allocated: 0/30
    T. Cruz 29.4% 16,753
    D. Trump 26.3% 14,998
    M. Rubio 20.0% 11,429
    B. Carson 9.6% 5,493
    R. Paul 4.2% 2,417
    J. Bush 2.6% 1,479
    M. Huckabee 1.8% 1,053
    C. Fiorina 1.8% 1,023
    J. Kasich 1.7% 959
    C. Christie 1.4% 801
    R. Santorum 1.0% 567
    Other 0.1% 43
    J. Gilmore 0.0% 4

    felipe (56556d)

  89. Only about a dozen counties of the 99 have yet to report.

    Ed from SFV (3400a5)

  90. Why is Gilmore even in the race? I have been horribly confused by that since August, at least.

    Dianna (004c4f)

  91. I would welcome Carson as a Kingmaker.

    felipe (56556d)

  92. Kevin M.,

    I just heard that, but it’s odd, no? Who flies from Iowa to Florida to get a clean shirt – especially tonight of all nights??

    Dana (86e864)

  93. If the pander king can’t run away with Iowa, there may be hope for America.

    LIKE.

    I need a LIKE button for comments on this site.

    A LIKE from the blog host should get a giant color rainbow.

    Tech guy!?!

    Patterico (86c8ed)

  94. Well, I need to go walk the dog and start winding down for the night.

    Good chatting with you all.

    Dianna (004c4f)

  95. I don’t even remember what Gilmore looks like…

    Dana (86e864)

  96. Gang of 8? Okay, but he backed off from it. Rookie mis-judgment.

    Oh, to me that’s the confirmation. He always has come across as a true politician’s politician to me. Why would this guy even be in the senate in the first place is a complete mystery to me.

    Cruz did some impressive stuff at the Supreme Court and cares about the constitution as a professional expert on it, but Rubio is a career legislator. He’s not that impressive academically (poli sci major, even). I wouldn’t mention that, but he’s never run anything so I’m looking elsewhere on the resume.

    We don’t really have a deep bench to choose from who can win a national election

    Jeb Bush is a Bush, and enough of that. I get that part, but he ran Florida decently. Walker is a great governor. Christie is a RINO too, but he ran stuff. I don’t want to mention Rick Perry, but Rick Perry.

    I don’t mean to be intensely hostile, actually. It’s just that this dude has a lot of gall to even talk about being our president. It’s like the Hamburgler hopping into a space shuttle and trying to fly to Mars.

    Dustin (2a8be7)

  97. 52 percent of Dem precincts
    9000 votes

    25 percent of GOP precincts
    43000 votes

    I wonder how many Dems are caucusing with the GOP.

    John Hitchcock (b09b88)

  98. Late deciders 29% Rubio, 24% Cruz.

    Dana (86e864)

  99. Trump is ever so slightly beginning to fade…

    Republican

    43% Reporting

    Delegates Allocated: 0/30
    T. Cruz 29.0% 20,179
    D. Trump 25.9% 18,045
    M. Rubio 20.5% 14,298
    B. Carson 9.7% 6,787
    R. Paul 4.3% 2,986
    J. Bush 2.7% 1,871
    C. Fiorina 1.8% 1,260
    J. Kasich 1.8% 1,246
    M. Huckabee 1.8% 1,241
    C. Christie 1.5% 1,029
    R. Santorum 1.0% 689
    Other 0.1% 54
    J. Gilmore 0.0% 6

    felipe (56556d)

  100. Beautiful. Trump slowly declining. 29/25/21

    Ed from SFV (3400a5)

  101. Kevin M, you’re correct, I meant (#81) Trump when I used the phrase pander king, and I’m referring specifically to ethanol.

    Beldar (fa637a)

  102. I wonder how many Dems are caucusing with the GOP.

    Why John Hitchcock? Have they finished screwing up their own party and want to give ours a try?

    Rev. Barack Hussein Hoagie™ (f4eb27)

  103. John Hitchcock (b09b88) — 2/1/2016 @ 6:38 pm

    Hmm, you are on to something there, I think.

    felipe (56556d)

  104. By the by – the GOPe talking point has been revealed…the winner will walk out with just about the same amount of delegates as the 2nd place person. This will be the narrative as it minimizes both Cruz and Trump.

    Ed from SFV (3400a5)

  105. Rubio is kicking…

    Republican

    49.7% Reporting

    Delegates Allocated: 0/30
    T. Cruz 29.0% 24,277
    D. Trump 25.3% 21,170
    M. Rubio 21.0% 17,622
    B. Carson 9.7% 8,122
    R. Paul 4.4% 3,689
    J. Bush 2.7% 2,271
    C. Fiorina 1.8% 1,513
    J. Kasich 1.8% 1,499
    M. Huckabee 1.7% 1,434
    C. Christie 1.5% 1,265
    R. Santorum 1.0% 811
    Other 0.1% 64
    J. Gilmore 0.0% 9

    felipe (56556d)

  106. Rubio may leave Trump behind tonight.

    Dana (86e864)

  107. That decisiondeskhq dot com thing is having hiccups. Now, Hillary has 0.1 percent of the vote.

    John Hitchcock (b09b88)

  108. The promise means nothing without the demonstrable skill at doing it, I would warrant. 🙂

    aphrael – I said the same thing about Obama for almost 9 years. His promises were sunshine blown up a unicorn’s sphincter.

    JD (534747)

  109. WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    AceofSpades Decision Desk projects CRUZ WINS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Ed from SFV (3400a5)

  110. I don’t think they can cross in caucuses.

    nk (dbc370)

  111. Carson is not quitting. After the National Prayer Breakfast, he will go to North Carolina and then to New Hampshire. He’s just going to Florida to rest up and get a change of clothes. Maybe he will re-evaluate his campaign – that’s possible, obviously.

    Sammy Finkelman (dbec95)

  112. Catch him, Marco!

    Cruz Supporter (102c9a)

  113. Rubio is too squishy and isn’t much better than Jeb.

    Cruz is easily the most ideologically reliable of the group, while Trump, in broad terms, is the least. If Cruz’s current lead holds up, that totally changes the meaning of national opinion polls and suggests enough Iowan Republicans perhaps have become so nervous about Trump’s un-tethered political history, they’ve decided to change their tune.

    Meanwhile, philosophical ambiguity may bother some super-liberal Democrats who fret about their candidates being too squishy and liable to tilt to the right (eg, Hillary and Wall Street—if that relationship can even be defined as conservative, which it isn’t). However, with current socio-economic trends being the way that they are — thanks to the Supreme Court in particular and our 21st-century culture in general — such Democrats would have to be the ultimate in greedy spoiled brats.

    Mark (f713e4)

  114. Rubio’s a huffin’ and a puffin’…

    Republican

    55% Reporting

    Delegates Allocated: 0/30
    T. Cruz 28.7% 26,999
    D. Trump 25.2% 23,651
    M. Rubio 21.2% 19,950
    B. Carson 9.7% 9,152
    R. Paul 4.5% 4,185
    J. Bush 2.7% 2,582
    C. Fiorina 1.8% 1,707
    J. Kasich 1.8% 1,705
    M. Huckabee 1.7% 1,594
    C. Christie 1.5% 1,422
    R. Santorum 1.0% 916
    Other 0.1% 71
    J. Gilmore 0.0% 10

    felipe (56556d)

  115. Pufff, puff, gasp, puff….

    Republican

    57.8% Reporting

    Delegates Allocated: 0/30
    T. Cruz 28.6% 28,448
    D. Trump 25.1% 24,942
    M. Rubio 21.4% 21,314
    B. Carson 9.7% 9,653
    R. Paul 4.5% 4,489
    J. Bush 2.8% 2,765
    J. Kasich 1.8% 1,828
    C. Fiorina 1.8% 1,793
    M. Huckabee 1.7% 1,705
    C. Christie 1.5% 1,531
    R. Santorum 1.0% 962
    Other 0.1% 74
    J. Gilmore 0.0% 10

    felipe (56556d)

  116. Fox’s inclusion of Kasich in the main debate group sure looks intelligent.

    Gerald A (7c7ffb)

  117. Decision Desk now projects Hillary to win.

    Ed from SFV (3400a5)

  118. Luntz reporting 170K turnout for GOP. Obliterates record.

    Ed from SFV (3400a5)

  119. Congratulations to us Cruzers, I think. The bubbly awaits.

    felipe (56556d)

  120. I’m delighted Cruz seems to be leading, but I find myself in the odd position of cheering on Trump for a strong second place, because I absolutely do not want to see Rubio get it.

    Arizona CJ (da673d)

  121. …phrase pander king, and I’m referring specifically to ethanol.

    YEs, but I feel safe in asserting Kasich pandered on that, too. Probably also against that.

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  122. I would have no problem seeing the GOP contest become a debate between Rubio and Cruz, with Trump forgotten. On a lot of issues Rubio and Cruz have few differences and even on immigration they’ve both dabbled in things one could call amnesty.

    Since the only things that matter on immigration is a wall gets built, the law gets reformed and there is no path to citizenship (preferably blocked by constitutional amendment) for illegal entrants, I’m more concerned about government downsizing, prosecution of criminal bureaucracies, and foreign/military policy. I’d like to hear the two men duke that out for a bit.

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  123. 77%

    28/25/23

    Ed from SFV (3400a5)

  124. Fox’s inclusion of Kasich in the main debate group sure looks intelligent.

    Gerald A (7c7ffb)

    Replacing him with Fiorina would have made the stage more interesting and manlier. ( I mean that as praise to Fiorina )

    Dustin (2a8be7)

  125. @ 118 Kevin M,

    Do you like Hilary’s lead-from-behind war on Libya? Do you like Hillary/Obama’s effort to undermine Mubarak in Egypt and bring the Muslim Brotherhood to power? If you think those moves were just great, then yeah, you might well be fine with Rubio (who publicly supported both, and did so as a member of the Senate Foreign Relations committee).

    When it comes to opposing Rubio, there are a host of reasons even if immigration isn’t considered.

    Arizona CJ (da673d)

  126. 5 counties still have not reported ANY results. 77% precincts in overall

    Ed from SFV (3400a5)

  127. If you can’t get 3 percent of the Iowa vote, you should pack it in and move on out.

    John Hitchcock (b09b88)

  128. 97% CRUZ 28/24/23!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Ed from SFV (3400a5)

  129. Go Cruz! How ’bout that!

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  130. Away from the computer due to work but I see Ace’s decision desk called it for Cruz half an hour ago.

    Patterico (86c8ed)

  131. Clinton will win by a quim hair…

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  132. Cruz walked into King Ethanol and won. You tell me how he can’t now go on to win the general.

    Awesome.

    Ed from SFV (3400a5)

  133. Marco’s closing strongly…will he catch Donnie Friendly?!

    Cruz Supporter (102c9a)

  134. 99% in

    28
    24
    23

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  135. Trump is going to end up effectively tied with Rubio for second.

    I think he’s brittle, and close to shattering. I don’t think Trump will be around for the SEC primaries.

    Beldar (fa637a)

  136. The thing that is really impressing me is that Cruz campaigned against the mandate on ethanol. The governor of Iowa blasted him for it. The Iowa voters deserve some respect for supporting Cruz.

    I think they are wise, as a free market will make the country better for everyone. One group’s mandated slice may get smaller, but the pie would be bigger.

    I hope this changes the game for GOP candidates in the future. Be bold and principled. Hell, Trump’s shown us at least that there’s a lot to be gained for being bold.

    Dustin (2a8be7)

  137. Trump doesn’t care about his supporters or voters. They’re just objects to use to his advantage:

    At a meeting with The Times’s editorial writers, Mr. Trump talked about the art of applause lines. “You know,” he said of his events, “if it gets a little boring, if I see people starting to sort of, maybe thinking about leaving, I can sort of tell the audience, I just say, ‘We will build the wall!’ and they go nuts.”

    Dana (86e864)

  138. I think he’s brittle, and close to shattering. I don’t think Trump will be around for the SEC primaries.

    I hope I hope I hope

    Patterico (86c8ed)

  139. Rove has his marker pen and white board out… teh technology employed is breathtaking!

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  140. The only sobering thing is remembering Santorum won this in 2012.

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  141. Just saw, with 84% reporting it is as follows:

    Cruz – 27.7%
    Ol’ Whazzizname – 24.4%
    Rubio – 23%

    Quite an interesting night.

    JVW (d60453)

  142. Kudos to Britt Hume for giving Ted major props for not caving on ethanol. Rove says turnout was 180K!

    Ed from SFV (3400a5)

  143. Iowans say, “stick THAT in yer corn hole!”

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  144. Trump still did pretty well, if you take this out of the horserace context. So many people have been pushed too far by the GOP.

    Pat’s right that the guy was a dope to skip the debate, but remember that the debate was all about exposing hypocritical quotes in the candidates, and with Cruz having taken the gloves off, Trump was bound to have a very bad day. He may have seen skipping the debate as the ‘least bad’ option.

    Dustin (2a8be7)

  145. Oh, Colonel Haiku has much better updated numbers than I do. Never mind.

    JVW (d60453)

  146. Huckabee announced he is OUT! Hahahahahahahaha. What a great night.

    Ed from SFV (3400a5)

  147. Patterico (86c8ed)

  148. Santorum can’t be far behind.

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  149. “we’ll not have Huckabee’s wife to lust after anymores…”

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  150. And that tweet from Patterico was mild compared to some (nsfw)

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  151. Bad night for Nate Silver and 538. He refuses to admit it. Looooooooooooove!

    It’s a broken glass election, y’all. Throw out the models.

    Ed from SFV (3400a5)

  152. Fox just called it….for Mr. Cruz.

    Score one for the good guys.

    Pons Asinorum (49e2e8)

  153. ALWAYS TRUST CONTENT FROM PATTERICO.

    Patterico (86c8ed)

  154. Aw, P., Huck will always have a special place in my heart for describing Congress’ financial recklessness by saying that they “spend money like John Edwards in a beauty parlor.”

    JVW (d60453)

  155. BTW, this makes Trump a “loser”. Just saying.

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  156. Delegate count (early estimate).

    Cruz 8
    Trump 7
    Rubio 7

    Ed from SFV (3400a5)

  157. Anybody think that Trump will find more people who hate Mexicans and Muslims in New Hampshire than he did in Iowa?

    nk (dbc370)

  158. Huckabee will give his “checkies” speech before COB Friday… a pilots “Real McCoys” humor…

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  159. I can’t believe that anyone thinks this matter is settled until the votes from Wapello County are counted. I want to hear from the good folks of Chillicothe!

    JVW (d60453)

  160. The Macallan tends to make me type in ALL CAPS can someone explain this to me

    Patterico (86c8ed)

  161. I can’t believe that anyone thinks this matter is settled until the votes from Wapello County are counted. I want to hear from the good folks of Chillicothe!

    LIKE.

    WHERE IS THE DAMNED LIKE BUTTON

    Patterico (86c8ed)

  162. Excellent speech by Rubio

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  163. I distinctly remember dogmatically predicting
    that something would happen
    and after that
    something else would happen.

    And admitting that after 2008 and 2012 anything was possible
    like the top 2 dems being someone that no one should take seriously
    and someone who seriously should be in the fed pen.

    and if Hillary drops out
    who they gonna replace her with?
    Biden? who doesn’t cause international turmoil simply because no one takes him seriously
    Gore?
    Warren?
    and the knowledge that no matter who it will be they will get a sympathy vote over a failed Hillary and might win anyway…

    MD in Philly (at the moment not in Philly) (deca84)

  164. Quick, let’s split up Huckabee’s nine supporters and try to win them over.

    Dustin (2a8be7)

  165. Grinnell (Poweshiek county) is the only place I know, and it’s following the curve of the rest of the state.

    nk (dbc370)

  166. Good looking Rubio family!

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  167. Excellent speech by Rubio

    I didn’t see it, was his thumb lightly touching his forefinger that seems to be his thing

    Also was he thirsty

    Patterico (86c8ed)

  168. chaos theory, it’s whats for dinner,

    narciso (732bc0)

  169. Kaisch, Fiorina and Christie all stuck at 2%. What’s the point?

    Dana (86e864)

  170. MD, as any steeplejack will tell you, after a certain point all dangers are equal.

    nk (dbc370)

  171. Alcohol is an ototoxic drug. So you find yourself typing louder just to hear yourself.

    felipe (56556d)

  172. Anybody think that Trump will find more people who hate Mexicans and Muslims in New Hampshire than he did in Iowa?

    Well, both places have such an influx it’s hard to say.

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  173. nk, Grinnell College is well regarded. Naturally it’s a Stalinist outpost.

    Cruz Supporter (102c9a)

  174. Hillary under 50%. God is good!

    Robert C. J. Parry (7f3a34)

  175. Col.

    I agree re Rubio’s speech. Very passionate, full of love and respect for the sacrifices his parents made for their children, and extraordinary love for our country.

    Dana (86e864)

  176. I’m waiting to see if any of Rubio’s kids get a look of distaste as he hugs ’em, Patterico.

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  177. Kaisch, Fiorina and Christie all stuck at 2%. What’s the point?

    Dana (86e864)

    I got a vibe from Christie that he was running for VP the way he handled the debate last round. Limited attacks on the other candidates, but very persuasive about Hillary.

    Albeit I would hope the nominee picks Walker for VP. Set this party up for some long term prospects.

    Dustin (2a8be7)

  178. The Macallan tends to make me type in ALL CAPS can someone explain this to me

    I could. I’m pretty sure that Old Smuggler will do the same, given sufficient quantity. But it may be that it just LOOKS like all CAPS. (there were no caps in the last sentence)

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  179. The man does look thirsty!

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  180. Maybe, Dustin, but Christie doesn’t strike me as willing to play second fiddle to anyone.

    Dana (86e864)

  181. Alcohol is an ototoxic drug. So you find yourself typing louder just to hear yourself.

    I’M SORRY I CAN’T HEAR YOU

    Patterico (86c8ed)

  182. lol.

    felipe (56556d)

  183. Nate Silver says remaining precincts are slight HRC leans. Well, that spells trubble for her. Tonight has been bad news for pollsters.

    Fingers crossed.

    Feel the Bern!

    Ed from SFV (3400a5)

  184. Christie oughtta go hug Obama and drown his sorrows in a vat of Krispy Kreme donuts!

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  185. The takeaway from the Dem caucus’s 10k votes is nobody was interested enough in the Dem candidates to go out and vote.

    John Hitchcock (b09b88)

  186. I might be faking a little of this ALL CAPS stuff for the laffs, but in all honesty I am very excited.

    Patterico (86c8ed)

  187. Rubio’s speech went a little long, but he is a powerful orator and debater. Misunderestimate him at your peril.

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  188. The real take-away is that King Corn lost for once. Never again will it strike such fear.

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  189. I don’t drink, so I vented by posting a critical review of a bad book on Amazon.

    nk (dbc370)

  190. Is effing Trump getting a spray tan!?!?

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  191. It would make more sense if
    Barry Sanders
    was running.

    And that’s my last comment tonight.

    MD in Philly (at the moment not in Philly) (deca84)

  192. Hillary 50%, and Bernie 50%.

    Dana (86e864)

  193. Trump speaks. nekulturny

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  194. Col,

    I think he’s looking little oops-loompaish.

    Dana (86e864)

  195. Maybe, Dustin, but Christie doesn’t strike me as willing to play second fiddle to anyone.

    Dana (86e864)

    Yeah, governor is a better job than VP in my book, yet all the best picks from my POV are going to be governors.

    Dustin (2a8be7)

  196. Clinton is at 49.8 and Sanders at 49.6

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  197. It’s a battle for the larders and wallets of Iowa on the Dem side!

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  198. I have gone to the Des Moines Register’s website and Wapello County REMAINS UNCOUNTED! Why? What is happening in Ottumwa and Eddyville that they don’t want us to know? Where is James Baker? Where is David Boies? Where is Kathleen Harris? How the hell can this be allowed in America?

    JVW (d60453)

  199. Hang tough Mr. P.
    The primary is the hard part, as predicted by yours truly lol.

    Pons Asinorum (49e2e8)

  200. “This is America and we count the votes.”
    – Al Gore

    JVW (d60453)

  201. How in the world is Karl Marx tied for the lead in a primary of a major political party in the USA?

    If Iowa taught Republicans to stop pandering on mandates, it’s teaching the democrats to offer more goodies for everyone.

    Trump’s speech said little but was nice. He’s learning to have thicker skin. Rubio’s speech was very nice and I see the appeal, though I think I have some kind of brain disorder where in my perception really smooth moderate Republicans are roughly equivalent to a devil.

    Dustin (2a8be7)

  202. Iowa GOP Chair confirms over 180K voters and that Cruz earned more votes than anyone in history.

    Ed from SFV (3400a5)

  203. UPDATE: Favorite retweet of all time.

    Screen Shot 2016-02-01 at 7.59.31 PM

    Patterico (86c8ed)

  204. CS, you’re right about Grinnell. Bernie is 12% over Hillary in that county.

    nk (dbc370)

  205. “Cruz earned more votes than anyone in history.”

    I like the sound of that.

    felipe (56556d)

  206. Cruz/West

    mg (31009b)

  207. I’ll say this for the Trump clan: effortlessly classic chic all the way around. He looks out of place.

    Dana (86e864)

  208. but the overall projections were off, they expected 2X last times turnout, dem numbers were quite weak,

    narciso (732bc0)

  209. IMPORTANT UPDATE:

    I have learned through exhaustive research that the Republicans of Wapello County were set to caucus this evening at Ottumwa High School. Ottumwa’s mascot is the bulldog and their school colors are red and white. My high school’s mascot was the bulldog and our colors were red and white too! This is my first real clue as to why the Wapello caucus results may be embargoed. I’ll report more later.

    JVW (d60453)

  210. Leonid Sanders neck and neck with Hillary!

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  211. Alfalfa will wear the gang of 8 medallion around his neck. Until he becomes a pro lobbyist.

    mg (31009b)

  212. Democrats are pulling some shi+ with the vote count.

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  213. the truth is out there, jvw:

    narciso (732bc0)

  214. IMPORTANT UPDATE II:

    It would seem that my poking around has roused suspicion and forced the establishment Republicans who run Wapello County’s GOP to cough up the figures. Final totals for Wapello are Ol’ Whazzizname at 35%, Cruz at 26%, Rubio at 20%. My work here is done. Score another one for citizen bloggers.

    JVW (d60453)

  215. Hopefully cow hampshires numbers change. Cruz should move up a handful and trump should drop two handfuls.

    mg (31009b)

  216. Pure silliness, but it makes me laugh:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jPob5-_EAmc

    Simon Jester (d6457d)

  217. 197. How in the world is Karl Marx tied for the lead in a primary of a major political party in the USA?…

    Dustin (2a8be7) — 2/1/2016 @ 8:05 pm

    Marx is tied for the lead because the Democrats decided to run Aldrich Ames as the inevitable candidate.

    A couple of records were set on the GOP side, folks.

    Cruz finished with 28% and won the most Iowa caucus voters ever for a GOP candidate. Yeah, turnout.

    Bush finished with 3% after spending a record $25k for each of his precious 4,787 votes. Yeah, burn that donor cash!

    Steve57 (f61b03)

  218. Cruz had a tough week, so I know a lot of us were concerned. I think a lot of his supporters are quite resolved and won’t go anywhere. I hope mg is right and folks going to New Hampshire make a quick readjustment from some of the guys who probably should drop out to Cruz.

    Dustin (2a8be7)

  219. What a reversal I never dreamed….I am ecstatic to hear a victory crowd in politics shouting, “TED TED TED TED TED!!!!!”

    Ed from SFV (3400a5)

  220. The Macallan tends to make me type in ALL CAPS can someone explain this to me

    You should try something better than Macallan…

    Glenmorangie 18 year extremely rare.

    Chuck Bartowski (57c71d)

  221. Questions for the next Dem debate:

    Does either of you wish that the Soviet Union was still around? Did you feel a sense of victory the day it dissolved?

    Where did Lenin go wrong?

    Can a government that controls most of the means of production escape the maxim that absolute power corrupts absolutely?

    Why is the state a better judge of the future than the people individually?

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  222. well chuck todd, remember he didn’t know the difference between the mensheviks and the bolsheviks, then again he worked for harkin.

    narciso (732bc0)

  223. Victory lap?

    Yeah. Victory lap.

    Patterico (86c8ed)

  224. Cruz’ speech is entirely geared to the SEC primary. Smart.

    Ed from SFV (3400a5)

  225. Why do we go on and on calling Bernie a “socialist”? He honeymooned in the effing Soviet Union. We know what his dreams were made of. Ask him straight up: You appear to have thought highly of the Soviet Union. Why do you call yourself a socialist and not a communist?

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  226. well chuck todd, remember he didn’t know the difference between the mensheviks and the bolsheviks, then again he worked for harkin.

    Speaking of Harkin, I saw on some site or other that he was introducing Hillary! as she was getting ready to address the crowd. I know it’s Iowa and all, but the crowd at her speech was overwhelmingly old and overwhelmingly white. Wouldn’t it be interesting if she isn’t as popular with black voters in South Carolina as we were led to believe?

    JVW (d60453)

  227. You picked it, Patrick!

    Cruz is giving a very good speech.

    Patricia (5fc097)

  228. Kevin @221, that’s just how it works in this country.

    In the US the socialists try to fool people by calling themselves democrats, and the communists try to fool people by calling themselves socialists.

    It’s a game.

    Steve57 (f61b03)

  229. Does either of you wish that the Soviet Union was still around? Did you feel a sense of victory the day it dissolved?

    They would both just lie, Kevin. The question would have to be framed more benignly like, “Was there anything about the Soviet Union that was admirable?” and “When you see a country like Cuba, is there something you believe we could learn from them?” That I would love to see.

    JVW (d60453)

  230. actually it’s worse then that, burlington had a sister city, yaroslav, basically mayor bane writ large,

    narciso (732bc0)

  231. Marx is tied for the lead because the Democrats decided to run Aldrich Ames as the inevitable candidate.

    I don’t think of that old crone as Aldrich Ames as I do a Machiavellian wannabe. She’s not smooth enough to be Ames. Christ, she’s proven she isn’t smooth enough to play “Telephone” without screwing it up. At least Sanders comes by his crappy outlook honestly.

    A couple of records were set on the GOP side, folks.

    Cruz finished with 28% and won the most Iowa caucus voters ever for a GOP candidate. Yeah, turnout.

    And he did it saying “no” to ethanol subsidies. Damned impressive.

    Bush finished with 3% after spending a record $25k for each of his precious 4,787 votes. Yeah, burn that donor cash!

    Steve57 (f61b03) — 2/1/2016 @ 8:20 pm

    Jeb! should be honest with his donors and tell them their money would be better spent supporting Sanders.

    Bill H (dcdd7b)

  232. I wonder if Trump’s Fan Boy Sean Hannity will recover in time for tomorrow’s broadcasts.

    Cruz Supporter (102c9a)

  233. Hey, narciso, the guy who wrote “Fly Me to the Moon” is from Burlington.

    Cruz Supporter (102c9a)

  234. Chuck #216: you have good taste, sir!

    I have me a bottle of it, and I just poured out a finger or two to toast Patterico’s prediction.

    Simon Jester (d6457d)

  235. Say it ain’t so, Marty O’Malley!

    Another super speech tonight! Kudos to Ted Cruz.

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  236. @Chuck Bartowski: Glenmorangie 18 was my second legal drink. Had a hard time going back to the Glenlivet 12.

    Gabriel Hanna (3d8e32)

  237. Mark Levin will be very pleased.

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  238. I could’ve sworn I saw a youngish Eleanor Roosevelt on stage with Hillary Clinton tonight.

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  239. UPDATE x2: Victory.

    Patterico (86c8ed)

  240. Bush finished with 3% after spending a record $25k for each of his precious 4,787 votes. Yeah, burn that donor cash!

    Steve57 (f61b03) — 2/1/2016 @ 8:20 pm

    That sickens my stomach. And he’s a born politico, so he knew damn well he was wasting money.

    I guess it would be crazy to give his major donors a proportional refund (not that I want him too, as it would all go to another establishment guy).

    Dustin (2a8be7)

  241. Love Cruz’s line about the next president of the United States not being chosen by the media, the Washington establishment or lobbyists, but rather the next president will be chosen by the people. This is a truth that is no doubt making a lot of people very nervous tonight.

    Things are bound to get ugly.

    Dana (86e864)

  242. “The most votes cast for any Republican primary winner.”

    Patterico (86c8ed)

  243. @papertiger: His fingers look short.

    Gabriel Hanna (3d8e32)

  244. 216. …You should try something better than Macallan…

    Chuck Bartowski (57c71d) — 2/1/2016 @ 8:24 pm

    Or worse. Clan McGregor.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wHlvAkdmKkc

    Clan MacGregor scotch whisky review

    “It’s not that bad. That is the best I can say about it.”

    On certain occasions only Clan McGregor will do. What occasions you might ask? When you go hunting, and your hunting dog rolls around in a coyote corpse so rotten it’s practically liquified, and after you and your hunting buddy force him into the creek each holding on to a rope from opposite banks and march him up and down the creek and you still can’t get all the stink off of him and you know you’ve got to spend five hours in the car with that damn dog tomorrow.

    Then, Clan McGregor.

    I’m elated that Cruz won Iowa tonight.

    But at times the 2016 election season has reminded me of dog rolling around in the remains of a rotten coyote carcass. On the Dem side it still does.

    So, Clan McGregor.

    Steve57 (f61b03)

  245. I thought that Ted’s victory speech was too long until I realized that the Clintons, Bernie and Trump had to have a bowl of warm oatmeal before bedtime.

    Ag80 (eb6ffa)

  246. It was a long speech. Great pic, paper tiger “Thank you, Iowa, and goodnight!”

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  247. From here on out, Ted simply must stop with the technical points. His bona fides are firmly established. He has GOT to start matching Rubio with the short and sweet emotional phrasing.

    The very best part of his speech tonight was his short sentences proclaiming God/the Creator as supreme. Enough said. EVERYone who heard that, got it.

    No need any longer to go into the weeds of constitutionalism. Just say “Roe vs. Wade” is what you will get with anyone else as president. Stay the F away from specifics on economic planning. Ted has no choice but to connect to the more squishy GOP electorate.

    Also – he simply has to speak incessantly about the SEC primaries as the goal. He will be bombarded with horse race crapola in NH and SC. He can’t allow that expectation to creep in. Talk on and on and on about the South.

    Ed from SFV (3400a5)

  248. Way, way, way too long!

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  249. I thought that Ted’s victory speech was too long until I realized that the Clintons, Bernie and Trump had to have a bowl of warm oatmeal before bedtime.

    Ag80 (eb6ffa)

    Had Jeb given Trump’s speech, a lot of folks would have said it was low energy. But that’s a lot better than a Howard Dean moment.

    Dustin (2a8be7)

  250. But that’s a lot better than a Howard Dean moment.

    AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAARRRRRGGGHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!11!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Patterico (86c8ed)

  251. Sanders looks upset and appears out of sorts due to his lower denture

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  252. Way too shifty eyed.

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  253. Ruh roh. Early weather models are indicating good potential for a yoooooge snowstorm in NH next Tuesday.

    Ed from SFV (3400a5)

  254. they gave him the dnc as a consolation prize, so don’t cry for Yeargh, too loudly,

    narciso (732bc0)

  255. Yellow teeth, shifty eyes and prole rhetoric does not seem to be a winning formula, but I work for a living.

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  256. Watching all on YouTube. Appears to be a WE TIED! speech.

    Patterico (86c8ed)

  257. His speech was all about us rather than about him; after years of enduring Othering I feel like an American again.

    Susan (b75f73)

  258. Suhweet! Clinton has a young guy standing behind her who has put the pins of his dual Clinton buttons thru both cheeks to hold them in place. Now that is commitment!

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  259. Cruz earned his victory speech. I don’t begrudge him one second of it. It was a horrible weekend, and yet he pressed on, resolute and with a complete commitment to his principles and policies, no matter the risk in Iowa. That he didn’t waver in order to try to gain more voters spoke volumes about the man who would be president.

    This may end up being the first election in a long while where I have voted for a candidate with enthusiasm and pride.

    Dana (86e864)

  260. This may end up being the first election in a long while where I have voted for a candidate with enthusiasm and pride.

    LIKE

    Patterico (86c8ed)

  261. From narsico’s link the transcript – “SANDERS, 234. 456.”

    – from the context I extrapolate this is Sander’s portion, and the total head count, of people caucusing with the Democrats in Polk County.

    For comparison – Rubio got 8,359. Cruz got 7,846. Trump got 6,749. From Polk County.

    Is that a Roman Triumph for the GOP?

    papertiger (c2d6da)

  262. Suhweet! Clinton has a young guy standing behind her who has put the pins of his dual Clinton buttons thru both cheeks to hold them in place. Now that is commitment!

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0) — 2/1/2016 @ 9:15 pm

    More like the kind of S&M he hopes to have more of once Sir Hilary makes it to the Oval Orifice
    Office.

    Bill H (dcdd7b)

  263. This may end up being the first election in a long while where I have voted for a candidate with enthusiasm and pride.

    That’s been my lament since Reagan left: I wanted someone I could vote FOR, not vote against the other.

    Bill H (dcdd7b)

  264. Well, the Chicago Boys are back tonight, in Iowa, to deliver an election. It is not possible that at least 99% of the votes have not been legitimately tabulated by now.

    JFK – HRC y’all.

    Ed from SFV (3400a5)

  265. bill and his wife will be calling it quits when joe and the lying injun step in.

    mg (31009b)

  266. they may have assumed a hillary win in that county, it throws the whole count of,

    narciso (732bc0)

  267. The chicago mob has owned the iowa lakes region forever.

    mg (31009b)

  268. Or as Stalin famously said, “It just matters who counts the votes.”

    Cruz Supporter (102c9a)

  269. Heh. About Cruz’s lengthy speech, from the Twitters: Cruz’s actual plan is to speak until Bernie and Hillary die. Statistically, that is actually a real possibility.

    Dana (86e864)

  270. So, Clan McGregor.

    After you all have finished the Macallan, and you’ve gone on to empty some Johnny Walker Red, and you still need some more booze and nearly anything that isn’t ouzo will do: Clan McGregor.

    Take it from one who knows.

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  271. Patterico–

    While you work on that LIKE button, how about an EDIT function for us clumsy typists, eh?

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  272. Jeb spends $2800 per vote. Sounds about right for a tax and spend boosh.
    Great portrayal of his conservative values.

    mg (31009b)

  273. Pat Caddell is predicting Trump “will slaughter” the field in NH next week. I would never discount his word.

    As a Cruzer, I would be fine with Trump overwhelming the field in NH. Cruz would get a pass, since the media would have to come up with reasons to explain away Rubio’s lousy showing (assuming PC is correct). The next three weeks are all damage control for Ted. He just needs to get to the SEC at the end of this month with a modicum of momentum.

    Ed from SFV (3400a5)

  274. Kevin @269, sometimes the only thing that matters is that the whiskey works. Clan McGregor works.

    That’s why we can’t elect the communist. Communist whiskey doesn’t work. You go straight to hangover.

    You’re better off drinking after shave.

    Steve57 (f61b03)

  275. #234 The spin will be that the polls were right, the voters got it wrong. Just wait and see.

    Random Numbers (744102)

  276. After you all have finished the Macallan, and you’ve gone on to empty some Johnny Walker Red, and you still need some more booze and nearly anything that isn’t ouzo will do: Clan McGregor.

    Second bottle of The Macallan worked for me. Anyhoo I think all my points have been made. Time for bed.

    Patterico (86c8ed)

  277. Nobody ever has a second bottle of The Macallan.

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  278. I would be fine with Trump overwhelming the field in NH

    As long as he crushes Kasich and Bush, all is well.

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  279. Nobody ever has a second bottle of The Macallan.

    Let me rephrase that. Back when I was still drinking, no one admitted to having a second bottle of The Macallan.

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  280. Drudge is reporting that 90 precincts of Democrat votes have gone missing. That stinks for Hillary, because I’m sure we’ll eventually learn that they were 90 precincts that she won overwhelmingly!

    Cruz Supporter (102c9a)

  281. We’re down to one uncounted precinct and HRC leads 49.9 – 49.5 in the state delegate count, which is the metric the Dems insist upon. Nobody will ever know what the actual vote totals were, by dint of the DNC.

    So, Hillary won.

    The actual Iowa delegate count for the convention is projected by the Des Moines Register to have HRC with 22 and Bernie with 21.

    Ed from SFV (3400a5)

  282. disgusting old lady struggled for 50% in spite of a turnout what skewed heavily female (57%)

    happyfeet (831175)

  283. Bill and his pimp will soon be going home.

    mg (31009b)

  284. How many times did Rubio say “I” or “me” in his speech? A lot, by my count. It reminds me of Obama.

    DRJ (15874d)

  285. Isn’t there a story of LBJ burning down places with ballots during recounts?

    Simon Jester (d6457d)

  286. Let me rephrase that. Back when I was still drinking, no one admitted to having a second bottle of The Macallan.

    I should have clarified that the first bottle was already almost gone when I started last night.

    Patterico (86c8ed)

  287. Yes, putting away an entire bottle would be both impressive and almost certainly deadly.

    Patterico (86c8ed)

  288. How many times did Rubio say “I” or “me” in his speech? A lot, by my count. It reminds me of Obama.

    Didn’t see it yet, but yeah — a lot about that guy reminds me of Obama.

    I’d still take him over Trump, of course. But it would be nice not to have to settle, just this once.

    Patterico (86c8ed)

  289. Rubio would be better than Obama but I was disappointed in how self-centered he was. Cruz thanked the people who helped his campaign, most by name. One reason his speech went on so long is that he had a lot of people to thank. He also credited God and “We the People” for the victory. Cruz is very humble for someone who is supposed to be so arrogant, and Rubio is very self-centered for someone who is supposedly humble, common man.

    DRJ (15874d)

  290. No wonder Rubio’s speech reminded me of Obama. Rubio used the introduction from Obama’s 2008 speech.

    DRJ (15874d)

  291. In fairness to Barack, he did win twice. And that’s the whole objective of the exercise—to win.

    I don’t have a problem with Marco Rubio’s speech at all. He’s endured a lot of unwarranted personal attacks on his shoes, on his hair, on his handsome appearance, on his age, etc., and so to respond by using personal pronouns is generally unavoidable. I realize Rubio opened this speech with some similarities to Obama’s Iowa speech in 2008, but it’s not like Obama’s speech was unique or original; “People doubted me, but we proved them wrong, blah, blah.” Lots of politicians use that line in a victory speech.

    A campaign speech such as this is different than a Presidential speech where Barack obnoxiously says, “I,” “Me,” and “Mine,” 50,000 times in an hour.
    See, because when you’re a candidate, it’s about you and your performance, and how YOU are doing on the trail—that’s the metric, and that’s what being “judged”. But when you’re President, you should be using the Royal “We” and talking about the country’s performance.

    Barack says “I,” “Me,” and “Mine,” during the State of the Union address when he ought to be talking the country and “We,” and “Us.”
    That’s when he’s really obnoxious.

    Cruz Supporter (102c9a)

  292. The two speeches were about the same thing, with much the same headwinds, so it is little surprise they touch on the same themes. They are hardly identical.

    Besides, there are only two themes in politics: back to basics and brand-new day.

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  293. Rubio is a better orator, and probably a better debater than Cruz. Whatever one might think about their policies, this seems an objective truth. God (and the MSM) help Hillary if she had to debate either one, and I think Rubio would be more trouble for her as he tends to be blunter.

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  294. 286. Yes, putting away an entire bottle would be both impressive and almost certainly deadly.

    Patterico (86c8ed) — 2/2/2016 @ 6:25 am

    Not necessarily deadly at all. When I was stationed in Japan some of the Hawaiian-born sumo wrestlers were known to be able to single-handedly drink an entire bottle of tequila in a night out, and then crack open another.

    But then the smallest of them, Akebono, weighed 460lbs, Musashimaru weighted about 505, and Konishiki weighed 633lbs.

    Steve57 (f61b03)

  295. JD -I’ll note that in the 2008 primary I voted *against* Clinton rather than *for* Obama. I’ll likely be voting against Clinton again in June of this year.

    aphrael (e0cdc9)

  296. Kevin M, I think Rubio is the most talented orator in the public sphere right now. He doesn’t need a teleprompter, and he rarely says, “uh,” “well,” “you know,” or otherwise hems or haws. He also speaks fast, and he can articulate the vision of conservatism.

    I think he would carve Hillary up like a Thanksgiving turkey on a debate stage.

    McCain and Romney was each too hesitant to be blunt and direct when necessary. But as you suggest, Rubio tends to be blunt, although he delivers the message in a way that is attractive, and that’s going to be vital if he becomes the nominee and is debating a woman, because the media will be overreactive playing the “you’re sexist!” “you’re attacking a woman!” cards ad nauseum.

    Reagan is a good set of goalposts for how it should be done—he had Goldwater’s message, but he delivered it in a more attractive way than Goldwater ever did. And that can be the difference between a 1964 wipeout VS a 1980 solid victory.

    I think sometimes people on our side focus too much on the message, while ignoring or even being dismissive of the ability and style of the messenger. Both are important. Of course, if you don’t win the election, you don’t get to govern.

    Cruz Supporter (102c9a)

  297. 289. @DRJ. Well, at least Rubio’s speech would beat anti-plagiarism software.

    But actually, only the first sentence is about the same.

    Obama: They said this day would never come.

    Rubio: So this is the moment they said would never happen.

    Sanders also said something along similar lines, about the low expectations when they started:

    http://www.vox.com/2016/2/2/10892752/bernie-sanders-iowa-speech

    …Nine months ago, we came to this beautiful state. We had no political organization; we had no money; no name recognition. And we were taking on the most powerful political organization in the United States of America.

    And tonight while the results are still not known, it looks like we are in a virtual tie.

    And while the results are still not complete, it looks like we’ll have half of the Iowa delegates…

    Sammy Finkelman (643dcd)

  298. Patterico said something like it too, on Twitter:

    “Four years ago, I’d have called you crazy if you said a candidate with a firm anti-ethanol subsidy stance had even a CHANCE of winning Iowa.”

    Sammy Finkelman (643dcd)

  299. DRJ,

    I just went back to youtube to watch Rubio’s speech. He spends that first minute or two talking about how they said that WE couldn’t win. He mentioned “us” and “we” several times. There’s no gratuitous “I” or “ME” going on there.
    I really do not get this animus toward Marco.

    Cruz and Rubio are 1 and 2 in my book.

    Cruz Supporter (102c9a)

  300. It’s not animus to point out facts, Cruz Supporter. Here is a link to the transcript of Rubio’s speech. Seems like a lot of “I’s” to me but (pardon the pun) perhaps it is in the eye of the beholder.

    Rubio is my second pick but he channeled Obama’s 2008 Iowa speech. Even the New York Times noticed it.

    DRJ (15874d)

  301. DRJ, I would politely submit that there’s a difference between using “I” and “Me” gratuitously vs just the unavoidable usage of personal pronouns when one is discussing running for office.

    Like I asserted earlier, we need to delineate between when a guy is merely a candidate vs when he’s been elected President and is giving the State of the Union address. That’s where Obama is so obnoxious—he’s giving the State of the Union, yet saying “I” and “Me” a zillion times when the point of the exercise is to talk about the…state of the union—not the state of Barack.

    And the “I’s” and “Me’s” need to be counted in context….Marco was saying stuff like, “I believe this…” and “I want to do that…” This was definitely not a Miley Cyrus or Kim Kardashian moment in time.

    Cruz Supporter (102c9a)

  302. I’m glad you want to be polite, and I’m sure I didn’t compare Rubio to Miley Cyrus or Kim Kardashian. I compared him to Obama and others are, too.

    Moving on, Politico acknowledged that the Cruz turnout machine succeeded. That’s key to his claim that a real conservative can be competitive in the general election, just as Obama turned out more Democrats in his elections. I fully expect the Washington Cartel to deny it can be done, so I want to bookmark this link now — a link that will probably disappear sometime this Summer.

    DRJ (15874d)

  303. DRJ, the part of Rubio’s speech that rang false to me was the whole “Everybody said we could never win” spiel.

    Rubio has been an “establishment GOP” favorite — along with fellow Floridian and one-time mentor Jeb Bush — since 2012. He’s consistently polled ahead of lots of other candidates. His “surge” in Iowa solidified his third-place finish and almost took him to second, which, against Trump, would have been very impressive indeed.

    He can do the whole “ordinary man from humble immigrant roots” routine well because that’s honest and authentic. But it’s absolutely ridiculous — and to me, quite offputting — for Marco Rubio to try to pretend he’s an anti-Establishment candidate. He’s a young Establishment candidate.

    Beldar (fa637a)

  304. Good point.

    DRJ (15874d)

  305. well he came up from a small town, west miami, moved to the florida house speakership, a job that could drive you mad, took down a power in florida politics, who had wrought great damage in the party, all by the age of 39, about as quick as nixon’s rise, before eisenhower picked him,

    narciso (732bc0)


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