Trump Slips; Carson Now Firmly Leads in Iowa
Donald Trump is the biggest loser in the new Iowa Poll.
The pious Ben Carson has plowed past the braggadocious New York businessman to take the front-runner crown, unseating Trump as the most popular choice for president among likely GOP caucusgoers, the new Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics poll shows.
Carson, a retired neurosurgeon, is the favorite choice for 28 percent — 9 percentage points ahead of Trump’s 19 percent.
. . . .
Moving up into third place in the Iowa horse race is Texas U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, at 10 percent support.
Close on his heels is the top establishment contender, Florida U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio, at 9 percent.
Tied for fifth at 5 percent are former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and Kentucky U.S. Sen. Rand Paul, the son of three-time presidential candidate Ron Paul.
Good news for those of us who would never vote for Donald Trump under any circumstances.
iowa’s kinda weird i don’t pay it no nevermind
happyfeet (3ad349) — 10/23/2015 @ 7:40 amGood news for those of us who would never vote for Donald Trump under any circumstances.
There is one circumstance, evidenced by the Cubs in the World Series.
nk (dbc370) — 10/23/2015 @ 7:49 ami’m really hoping and praying for a Trump/Cruz unity ticket
only then can the healing truly begin i think
happyfeet (a037ad) — 10/23/2015 @ 7:50 amEthanol profiteers don’t want to give up the grift. Ben Carson promises to continue the global warming grift indefinitely. Trump promises to end it.
You ever watch the American Pickers? Iowans stacking antiques in their homes like cordwood.
papertiger (c2d6da) — 10/23/2015 @ 7:58 amWhere do they get the money to do that? Not just one or two of them. Show after show of them. Whole towns of them.
well it would be good if our corn went to feed, not fuel, but carson has been the steady plodder, and it seems to have paid off, we’ll look at the trendline not the data point, to make sure,
narciso (ee1f88) — 10/23/2015 @ 8:04 amYeah, yeah, yeah. It’s going to be Jeb vs. Hillary, and if you like phony contests I recommend Professional Mexican Midget Wrestling for superior entertainment value and avoidance of election fatigue.
nk (dbc370) — 10/23/2015 @ 8:18 ami would vote for hillary over jeb I wasn’t born to be lorded over by bushfilth my whole life
happyfeet (a037ad) — 10/23/2015 @ 8:20 amwell that would be unfortunate, since jeb’s chiropractor bills, for stumbling already have proven steep and they will grow ever larger,
narciso (ee1f88) — 10/23/2015 @ 8:23 amYeah, 12-16 years of Clintonfilth is way more awesomer huh?
Patterico (cbe514) — 10/23/2015 @ 8:27 amThis is the most bizarre primary of young life.
Leviticus (f9a067) — 10/23/2015 @ 8:45 am*my young life.
Leviticus (f9a067) — 10/23/2015 @ 8:45 amI recall pointing out months ago that the winner of the Iowa caucus rarely becomes the GOP nominee (unlike the Democrats where the Iowa winner is often the nominee). Check out who has won it over the years. The main thing is to have a respectable showing, which Trump will get, but winning it is irrelevant. The NH primary winner is far more likely to be the GOP nominee if history is any guide.
Gerald A (5dca03) — 10/23/2015 @ 8:47 amYeah, 12-16 years of Clintonfilth is way more awesomer huh?
if hillary won she guarantees that the R’s hold Congress I think Mr. P
and she will ensure the D’s own the exponentially accelerating decline of failmerica
happyfeet (a037ad) — 10/23/2015 @ 8:50 amit’s a remarkable thing, you find out what people are interested in, and then you speak on it,
narciso (ee1f88) — 10/23/2015 @ 8:52 amIowa distorts the election process because of the corn ethanol mandate.
It’s like the Progressive Insurance commercial where they brag “in business since FDR made purchasing our product mandatory”.
papertiger (c2d6da) — 10/23/2015 @ 8:54 amNew Hampshire is significant because it is based on votes, not caucuses, but voters can change Parties just for this vote. Now that Hillary has cleared the field, I expect to see some NH Democrats cross over to vote for moderate Republicans like Jeb or Christie.
DRJ (15874d) — 10/23/2015 @ 8:55 amHillary guarantees the status quo on abortion, right hf?
DRJ (15874d) — 10/23/2015 @ 8:56 amThere was the Stop Nixon campaign of ’68 and the common thread was the smell of blood. Johnson, unpopular because of the war declined to run; and Humphrey and other possible Dems were seen as easy pickings, and the Republican nominee a shoe-in. Not as weird as this lineup, though. There were still some standards left in America.
nk (dbc370) — 10/23/2015 @ 8:56 amalso new hampshire is a more expensive market no, so you need lots of ‘cabbage’ to swing it,
narciso (ee1f88) — 10/23/2015 @ 8:57 amSo littlefeet you can vote for the black guy, to prove you’re not racist to exactly nobody who will believe you, and continue living under the policies of the bushfilth the rest of your life, of you could go Huge.
papertiger (c2d6da) — 10/23/2015 @ 8:58 amTrump not faring as well in Iowa as elsewhere illustrates one of the problems I foresee if he becomes the nominee: Socially conservative Christians are not enamored with him and many will have a hard time pulling the lever for him. Evangelicals are a major voting block in the Iowa GOP, hence Trump won’t do as well there. He is increasingly trying to identify himself as a Christian but many, including me, aren’t convinced any more than they believe Obama is a Christian. I could overlook that if I thought he was committed to appointing Scalia type judges but I think he likes Souter types.
Gerald A (5dca03) — 10/23/2015 @ 8:59 amthe smokefilled rooms still predominated, rockefeller still ran the later, reagan was a brief outside challenger on the right, the price to pacify the latter was the adoption of kissinger
narciso (ee1f88) — 10/23/2015 @ 9:00 amand much of the domestic staff, apres le deluge,
or you could go Huge. how did that stray “f” get in there?
papertiger (c2d6da) — 10/23/2015 @ 9:00 amHillary guarantees the status quo on abortion, right hf?
not really most of the action on that happens at the state level (appropriately) and Hillary in office is very good for down-ticket R’s
i’m so over abortion it’s just not that big a deal
i decided if people want to have abortions you know what? Fine.
happyfeet (a037ad) — 10/23/2015 @ 9:02 amI wonder how many people Obama will bus into the Iowa caucuses this year.
luagha (d1fbc7) — 10/23/2015 @ 9:04 amCarson takes lead, happyfeet hardest hit…
Colonel Haiku (bb3c31) — 10/23/2015 @ 9:05 amMr. tiger Mr. Dr. Ben Carson really IS a fruit loop I’m not saying that just to be mean
i can’t stand the lispy faux-profundity of his increasingly inane utterances
oh for the love of God stop talking is what i want to say to him every time he opens his mouth
happyfeet (a037ad) — 10/23/2015 @ 9:05 amhappyfeet (a037ad) — 10/23/2015 @ 9:05 am
Who’s a good bird? happyfeet is a good bird.
papertiger (c2d6da) — 10/23/2015 @ 9:07 amYou want a cracker? I got a cracker.
papertiger (c2d6da) — 10/23/2015 @ 9:08 amhow did they say in men in black 3 ‘where there is death, there is more death’
http://www.nationalreview.com/article/425961/breast-cancer-screening-guidelines-bad-medicine-marc-siegel
deathydoodles go all the way, at the beginning, middle, and end,
narciso (ee1f88) — 10/23/2015 @ 9:09 ami want bread pudding
i have to go get my passport at lunch so maybe I can have some kind of adventure while i’m out
happyfeet (a037ad) — 10/23/2015 @ 9:09 amI guess penguins don’t eat crackers. How about a mackeral?
papertiger (c2d6da) — 10/23/2015 @ 9:09 amTrump is the last viable GOP candidate I would want to vote for, but I would still vote for him. Even living in California, I would still vote for him. Just maybe later in the day. There are some I would be first in line to vote for though.
Kevin M (25bbee) — 10/23/2015 @ 9:10 ami love kippers and sardines
in brooklyn i learned how to crumble sardines into a salad I never thought of that before
is bueno
my friend M taught me
i just throw in some spinach, broc slaw, dried cranberry and the sardines and usually use poppy seed or ken’s low cal apple cider dressing – it’s really the healthiest thing i make all week and it takes all of 5 minutes to get ready
happyfeet (a037ad) — 10/23/2015 @ 9:14 amOK, then you better not bitch if Hillary gets in.
IMO, you stay home, you forego the right to complain.
formwiz (6b3a5a) — 10/23/2015 @ 9:39 amNow that Hillary has cleared the field, I expect to see some NH Democrats cross over to vote for moderate Republicans like Jeb or Christie.
I do too. Democrats do that pretty well. They have done that in California and now California has a primary system that pretty much excludes anyone to the right of Hillary.
I like Carson. I am not sure yet who I will vote for in a primary but in California it doesn’t matter. Trump is a vulgarian but he has got the GOP figured out.
Mike K (90dfdc) — 10/23/2015 @ 9:42 amWow. Carson is picking up support from some serious folks.
Carson’s overall favorable rating is 84/12, more than 20 points better than Cruz and 25 points better than Trump. Not only does he lead the race overall, he leads Trump among tea partiers 33/17 and among evangelicals 33/18. One notable weakness in his numbers is that his support is softer than Trump’s, with just 15 percent of his voters saying they’re committed to him versus 32 percent of Trump’s supporters who say so about Trump.
The “Christian vote” in Iowa is always suspicious but maybe this is a real thing. Interesting comment about Trump at Allahpundit:
Gullible people fall for that kind of schtick. They want to be part of What’s Happening Now!
Problem is, the reverse is also operational. If he begins to lose ground, he will lose even more. Voters will conclude The Trump Show is over, and start gravitating toward other candidates.
Maybe. We’ll see. It’s still early.
Mike K (90dfdc) — 10/23/2015 @ 9:49 amHillary guarantees the status quo on abortion, right hf?
No, Hillary will ratchet abortion policy further leftward. Republicans guarantee the status quo.
Since we have the collective memory of a fruit fly, here’s an observation from 1924:
“The whole modern world has divided itself into Conservatives and Progressives. The business of Progressives is to go on making mistakes. The business of the Conservatives is to prevent the mistakes from being corrected.”
scrutineer (b7d257) — 10/23/2015 @ 9:59 amUnder any circumstances?
Not sure I would worry about that yet, although I wouldn’t suspend that worry based on polling.
Although would I use polling to deflate people who want to circumvent the messy Democratic process of actually voting in a few states, and order everyone to get in line behind an inconsistent candidate?
Probably–turn about is fair play.
Commenters are being banned already at other places for simply arguing against Trump, which means they can’t handle even debate about Trump, pretty weird actually this early in the election cycle. It’s how Liberals operate.
Danube River Guide (76b104) — 10/23/2015 @ 10:05 amyou stay home, you forego the right to complain
no you can still complain
happyfeet (a037ad) — 10/23/2015 @ 10:06 amMike K.
As to Allahpundit’s analysis, Trump might steam along a little longer than any other previous candidate because of his fame, wealth, and his love/hate relationship with the media.
Danube River Guide (76b104) — 10/23/2015 @ 10:09 amI’ve been holding my nose and voting for the GOP nominee for years and years. Now it’s your turn, get off your damn high horse and do your duty, no matter who gets the nod.
ropelight (6354c4) — 10/23/2015 @ 10:11 amhappyfeet
What were your last four votes for President? Or did you just stay home because there was a sale on pickles?
Danube River Guide (76b104) — 10/23/2015 @ 10:11 amNevermind, I’m pretty sure you fall way off any graph.
Danube River Guide (76b104) — 10/23/2015 @ 10:14 amThere’s something Trump could say that I’d drop him like a potato.
papertiger (c2d6da) — 10/23/2015 @ 10:19 amIf he goes into Iowa and promises the corn growers more of that sweet government mandate cash (like Ben Carson did) on account of how much he wants to help the environment, I’d kick him to the curb so hard his grandkids would be retroactively rendered cross-eyed.
last time i didn’t vote ok i was busy
but i live in lands of darkest indigo
it’s the only place i can make a living with my limited skill set
happyfeet (a037ad) — 10/23/2015 @ 10:20 amA no vote for Trump is the same as voting for Hillary — granted in California it does not matter.
Rodney King's Spirit (ab8c0d) — 10/23/2015 @ 10:25 amWell figuring out you, would be like trying to figure out Trump–or something. Actually you might have more consistent —
should we leap to call them principles or beliefs?
Either way when analyzing you or Trump–we are not on solid territory.
Danube River Guide (76b104) — 10/23/2015 @ 10:29 amHence the *charm*I suppose.
Danube River Guide (76b104) — 10/23/2015 @ 10:29 ami’m a stalwart and principled limited government conservative Mr. River Guide
and i am very lonely
happyfeet (a037ad) — 10/23/2015 @ 10:30 amAnd you think Trump is that?
Danube River Guide (76b104) — 10/23/2015 @ 10:55 amI wonder what happens here if Jeb! drops out. Some think he will soon.
Kevin M (25bbee) — 10/23/2015 @ 11:19 amAs to Allahpundit’s analysis, Trump might steam along a little longer than any other previous candidate because of his fame, wealth, and his love/hate relationship with the media.
I am not predicting his demise as a candidate at all. It’s just interesting how Carson is doing. Iowa will be better for him, I should think. GOP in Iowa tends to be evangelical and Dems tend to be far left there.
Mike K (90dfdc) — 10/23/2015 @ 11:24 amTrump is a rebuke to the stagnant corrupt R party
A much needed one
I’m not a fan but it is what it is
happyfeet (6389c8) — 10/23/2015 @ 11:56 amIf the choice were voting for Judas Iscariot or Satan incarnate, and not voting for Judas means Satan wins, I’d have to vote for Judas.
That’s how I view voting for Trump. Sure, he’s Judas. But he’s not Satan.
Steve57 (a0050a) — 10/23/2015 @ 12:46 pmOh, by the way. Guess who’s Satan.
Steve57 (a0050a) — 10/23/2015 @ 12:48 pmWhat happened to Fiorina?
MD in Philly (not in Philly at the moment) (deca84) — 10/23/2015 @ 5:48 pmHere’s yer answer Steve.
Colonel Haiku (2601c0) — 10/23/2015 @ 6:02 pmI think Fiorina could be a reliable weathervane in a cabinet position.
papertiger (c2d6da) — 10/23/2015 @ 7:48 pmFiorina and the rest are having problems with the press’s infatuation with Trump. Yet another reason I think he’s really a Dem. I’d love to see the journolista’s take on Trump. Probably an exhortation to help him drown out the GOP message.
Kevin M (25bbee) — 10/23/2015 @ 10:22 pmAssuming you wanted to downsize the federal government, in a way that left the core functions working, and you can’t have Mitt Romney, who would you pick? Hardly Trump, who would be the proverbial bull in the china shop, Hardly Carson, who’s more interested in bringing us all to God, or at least together for a big hug. Hardly Bush, who will run the ship directly into the iceberg, but at a sane and deliberate speed. Hardly Kasich who doesn’t know what tomorrow’s polls will bring. Hardly Rubio who, well, who knows what Rubio wants to do? But not that.
So you have Cruz and Fiorina. The will and the knowhow. Maybe there’s a team there.
Kevin M (25bbee) — 10/23/2015 @ 10:29 pmSo glad to see you finally answered my question!
I’ll be looking forward to your posting of who you’re voting for against Trump next fall!
School Marm (f96753) — 10/24/2015 @ 12:16 amGood news for those of us who would never vote for Donald Trump under any circumstances.
Patterico, is that statement more definitive or less definitive than your arguing back around 2009 that Obama was (and, yes, I realize you didn’t vote for him) a “good man,” or something along those lines?
Mark (f713e4) — 10/24/2015 @ 12:42 amMark (f713e4) — 10/24/2015 @ 12:42 am
Shameful joy does not suit you, Mark. just sayin’
felipe (56556d) — 10/24/2015 @ 1:59 amfor those of us who would never vote for Donald Trump under any circumstances.
I’d vote for Trump if he were the nominee. No one on the Democratic side with any chance is not immeasurably worse.
Mitch (bfd5cd) — 10/24/2015 @ 8:30 amI like and respect Carson but I’d sooner write my own name in than a dilettante.
DNF (45ef00) — 10/24/2015 @ 8:31 amBTW, I’ll be in DesMoines Jan. 9 for AdvoNation, corn & pork not on menu.
DNF (45ef00) — 10/24/2015 @ 8:36 amButter on the side?
mg (31009b) — 10/24/2015 @ 8:49 am68. Butter is righteous.
DNF (45ef00) — 10/24/2015 @ 9:10 amR.I.P. Maureen O’Hara, THE Queen of Technicolor. If you have never seen “The Quiet Man” with her and John Wayne, do so now . . . That’s an order!
Icy (58bc9c) — 10/24/2015 @ 10:04 amSaddled his horse he says. I’ll have no part in your further shaming the woman.
And mind the patty fingers if you please.
papertiger (c2d6da) — 10/24/2015 @ 12:26 pmSir!… Sir!… Here’s a good stick, to beat the lovely lady.
papertiger (c2d6da) — 10/24/2015 @ 12:29 pmIcy, I shall accept your order even though I’ve seen The Quiet Man what must be a dozen times. A Dozen times more couldn’t hurt.
Steve57 (a0050a) — 10/24/2015 @ 2:04 pm