Patterico's Pontifications

10/8/2015

Eugene Volokh: No Correlation Between State Homicide Rate and State Gun Laws

Filed under: General — Patterico @ 7:45 am



A unique and sensible way of looking at the statistics.

[C]orrelation obviously doesn’t equal causation; there may be lots of other factors that are the true causes of both of the things that are being measured. But if we do look for now at correlation, it seems to me that the key question should focus on state total homicide rates, or perhaps (for reasons I describe below) total intentional homicide plus accidental gun death rates. And it turns out that there is essentially zero correlation between these numbers and state gun laws.

Read it all.

32 Responses to “Eugene Volokh: No Correlation Between State Homicide Rate and State Gun Laws”

  1. But…but…but… We have to DO something! NOW!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1yeA_kHHLow

    The fact that drunk drivers kill more people every year doesn’t seem to have the same urgency. Strangely. Maybe the press should put those numbers up side by side, as the Preezie ordered them to do with terrorism and shootings.

    Simon Jester (c8876d)

  2. There is three-way correlation between (a certain) race (of both victims and perpetrators), harshness of gun control laws, and crime including homicide, but we don’t talk about it. Because we’re cowards.

    nk (dbc370)

  3. There’s an even better predictor of death by violence (mainly gun shot,) and that is whether the victim had previously been arrested in the company of another person who fell victim to violence in the interval preceding the death. It’s something about life style choices, and the consequences of allowing selected segments of society to do it their way. The “authorities” in Chicago are attempting to use this knowledge, but I rather doubt that they will be sufficiently aggressive. And the “authorities” in Baltimore are running a controlled experiment to ascertain the accuracy of this predictor.

    Speaking of correlations, has anyone noticed that California’s rainfall has dropped precipitously in the years following the installation of all those windmills? That is to say, a graph of power production by windmills over the last ten or twenty years would exhibit a strong negative correlation with rainfall if a suitable lag is introduced. And a logical linkage can readily be found … pulverizing all those condors and raptors has not gone unnoticed by Gaia.

    BobStewartatHome (a52abe)

  4. You know what? I just made up a theory of why it seldom rains in the desert: No trees.

    felipe (b5e0f4)

  5. A Leftwing scientist was doing a study. He trained fleas to jump on command.

    The scientist commanded the flea to jump, and it did. It jumped very high.
    Then the scientist tore off one of the flea’s legs, and repeated the order to jump. This time, the flea didn’t jump as high, but it still jumped.

    The scientist then tore off a second leg and repeated the procedure. The flea jumped a third time, on the third command to jump, but not as high as the first two times.

    The scientist continued the experiment until he had torn off all 6 of the flea’s legs. He then repeated his command to jump, but the flea didn’t jump.

    The Leftwing scientist concluded that when a flea loses all of its legs, it can no longer hear.

    John Hitchcock (7c7b81)

  6. Essentially zero correlation between homicide numbers and state gun laws. A very productive point – that neither fewer guns nor more guns will prevent gun-related homicides. Or (possibly) that there is zero correlation between gun ownership and gun laws, but that’s a productive point on its own.

    I am in favor of private gun ownership, as I have stated before, and opposed to most restrictions on private gun ownership, but I think the mantra that “more guns = less gun deaths” is an offensive product of sustained propaganda.

    Leviticus (f9a067)

  7. I don’t know what “sustained propaganda” you’re listening to, Leviticus but all the propaganda I hear and all that’s on TV and that I’ve seen in schools is “gun control, gun control, gun control”, not more guns. Sure, a few people can be heard way, way in the background calling for more guns but I think that’s a nervous reaction for fear the leftist will make a gun grab. Let’s be frank, a gun grab is all that’s left. Every Middlesex village and farm has laws against criminals and loony’s buying guns. There are laws about how any bullets a mag can hold, who can buy full auto’s and thousands of other laws repeated at every level of government ad nauseam. What Obomber and the loony left are slowly getting toward id full out confiscation. Or don’t you understand what that creep means by “let’s politicize these shootings”? They love the carnage, it gets them one dead American closer to gun confiscation. And they’d do it by illegal executive order because they could never pass an amendment.

    Rev. Barack Hussein Hoagie™ (f4eb27)

  8. BTW Leviticus, apparently the mayor of Jerusalem did not get your memo:

    Nir Barkat, mayor of Jerusalem, has sent out a bold advisory to city residents in the wake of several killings, stabbings and attacks on Israelis, telling them in the bluntest of language they might want to consider packing heat.

    “Given the current escalation in the security situation, those with a licensed firearm who know what to do with it must go out with [their weapons],” he said to Army Radio. “It’s an imperative. It’s like military reserve duty.”

    Read more at http://www.wnd.com/2015/10/jerusalem-mayor-tells-citizens-pack-heat/#ZtI0CdVlYuV2wck7.99

    Rev. Barack Hussein Hoagie™ (f4eb27)

  9. yes, they are always aiming for a Hungerford, or Dunblane, or Port Arthur event, speaking of the latter, little attention has been focused on the Paramatta ring of Hizbu Tahir, that was tied to the shooting last week.

    narciso (ee1f88)

  10. R.I.P. Chef Paul Prudhomme

    Icy (fbf9c5)

  11. Very interesting. Thank you for linking this.

    DRJ (521990)

  12. RIP, indeed, Icy. Among other accomplishments, he put Commander’s Palace back on the map of fine dining.

    DRJ (521990)

  13. i love this more than beans about the drunk neighbor0

    very cute

    happyfeet (a037ad)

  14. that’s supposed to just say neighbor

    i don’t know what went awry there

    happyfeet (a037ad)

  15. they give high grades for states with high homicide rates, and the converse,

    narciso (ee1f88)

  16. The fact that drunk drivers kill more people every year doesn’t seem to have the same urgency.

    There actually is a little bit of similarity between drunk driving and mass shootings. The NTSB is proposing yet again lowering the Blood-Alcohol Content limit from .08 to .05, even though there is no data that suggests that a lower limit will lead to fewer drunk driving crashes. But once again, we seek to address preventable tragedies through legislation that won’t deter the worst offenders.

    JVW (ba78f9)

  17. Guns are a civil rights issue. It does not matter to me at all whether guns make violent crime more or less prevalent. It is immoral to deprive me of a right because someone else abuses theirs.

    While the absence of correlation is a good debating tool, I refuse to debate people who want to take away my civil rights. My civil rights are not up for discussion.

    So I will not be seeking statistics on whether bans on hate speech result in fewer incidents of inter-racial violence or lead to lower crime or whatever. I do not seek statistics on whether abolishing the tax-exempt status of churches makes the population more or less likely to attend church, or whether making voting mandatory increases political participation.

    There’s a two word answer to those want to take away your rights, and anything else concedes to them that your rights are negotiable.

    Gabriel Hanna (64d4e1)

  18. There’s a two word answer to those want to take away your rights, and anything else concedes to them that your rights are negotiable.

    You called that one, brother!

    The NTSB is proposing yet again lowering the Blood-Alcohol Content limit from .08 to .05, even though there is no data that suggests that a lower limit will lead to fewer drunk driving crashes.

    Drunk riving long ago became a cash cow for municipalities and states. They couldn’t care less if people die or not they just want their money, their loot and their forfeitures. Everybody from the cops, to the lawyers, to the township, to the judges, to the state get a cut and they don’t want to kill the golden goose. That’s the reason they want to lower the DUI number to .05. Those .07’s were getting away without paying! Damn them!

    We have the technology to make alcohol interlock systems just like the ones they mandate for DUI’s mandatory on all vehicles just like seat belts and air bags etc.. But that would take the profit from the above mentioned out of the equation. Plus, that would stop everybody from driving with even a .001 and the cops, lawyers, judges and politicians refuse to not be able to start their own cars, hell no! Interlocks can be made mandatory on every vehicle from scooters to cars to trucks to school buses. If saving lives and not money was the point , they would be.

    As an aside I know several people who have gotten DUI’s. They have all noted that while doing their penance not once have they run into a cop, lawyer or judge. Not saying it never happens but every cop I know (an I know a load) are heavy drinkers. The lawyers I know ain’t far behind. Yet, they never seem to get DUI’s. Wonder why?

    Rev. Barack Hussein Hoagie™ (f4eb27)

  19. @Rev’m Hoagie:We have the technology to make alcohol interlock systems just like the ones they mandate for DUI’s mandatory on all vehicles just like seat belts and air bags etc

    And like all the other mandatory safety, pollution control, and CAFE equipment, will add to the cost of vehicles.

    What you propose is like making trigger locks or fingerprint sensors mandatory on guns.

    But the difference of course is that driving a motor vehicle on a public highway is not a Constitutional right, and the right to bear arms is.

    Gabriel Hanna (64d4e1)

  20. Our white murder rate in the USA is the same as the safest countries in Western Europe.

    Our black/minority murder rate higher than Western Europe but lower than Africa and South America.

    So start the discussion there ….. and you will eventually know why we have a murder problem in the USA.

    Hint: Piss poor values among our most uneducated and poor. And guess whose values they assumed? Democrats.

    Rodney King's Spirit (ab8c0d)

  21. One example-very blue Vermont has almost no police at all spare state troopers.It has very liberal gun laws. There are lots of recreational guns and many people own handguns. And yet there is almost no gun crime at all. Same thing next door in formerly red trending blue New Hampshire.

    Frankly dropping the BAC for DWI any further is pointless. Truth is most DWI accidents occur with BACs of .13% or worse. BAC of .05% is for some people 2 or 3 drinks with dinner.And nobody is impaired by that.

    Along the same lines legal drinking age of 21 has done nothing except teach young people that laws are a joke to be screwed around with rather than agreed to sensible rules of society to be respected.People between 18 and 21 still drink, they simply re now scofflaws . And people who act stupidly at 18 will still act stupidly at 21.

    Bugg (fa64ec)

  22. Hoagie,

    It’s even worst for the drunk driving laws than you think. Beyond the federal government asking for neo-teetoaler like actions. At the state and city level, some of the laws passed seem great but again an enforcement issues arise. There are bars that the liquor board knows are guilty of violating the no drunk service job, but the police won’t touch them because it’s low priority. The attempts at enforcement of the car impound law (minimum of 24 hours in impound lot if arrested, after a lady got three DUIs in a night with the same car) has lead to carve outs if it’s your sole family transportation. The higher insurance requirements and ignition interlocks and other items have seen the habitual offenders escape through loopholes and the law abiding slimed in the same manner as if they were mass murders.

    The same deal with guns. I don’t know if the host has talked about this with respect towards his own legal experience. However, my own interactions with the State legal workers seems to say that going after gun crime violations or working with the DOJ to prosecute at the federal level is a waste of paper and time. Even though it appears that when enforcement of that at least on the criminal side happens, the rates of gun usage during crimes goes down. See Exile or Ceasefire or a slew of other similar programs through out the nation in high crime cities.
    So is it a law issue or an enforcement issue?

    Charles (48995b)

  23. here is a news

    A Tribune Media Co. subsidiary announced Thursday it has hired Eastdil Secured to explore “strategic monetization alternatives” for Tribune Tower and adjacent land. The 36-story building on North Michigan Avenue sits on 3 acres.

    “The global renown of this building, its unparalleled location and development potential make this an incredible opportunity and we are expecting a high level of interest from a broad range of private and institutional investors and developers,” said Murray McQueen, president of Tribune Real Estate Holdings.

    happyfeet (a037ad)

  24. And like all the other mandatory safety, pollution control, and CAFE equipment, will add to the cost of vehicles.

    So? Doesn’t seem to bother them when they make me pay for seat belts I never use, pollution and CAFE standard items that cut my gas mileage and 10 mph bumpers that don’t mean a thing and cost five times the amount of a normal bumper to replace.

    Like you said, driving is not a Constitutional right (although I personally believe it should be). And like I said if it were the saving of lives they cared about price would be no object. How many times have you heard the leftist mantras: “If it saves just one life” or “It’s for the children”? Well mandatory ignition interlocks will save thousands of lives and thousands of children. But the leftists in law, law enforcement and politics would lose money so it’s a non-starter.

    Rev. Barack Hussein Hoagie™ (f4eb27)

  25. @Rev’m:pay for seat belts I never use

    Oh I hope this is not true. Physics is a harsh mistress. The paramedics, though, will have a little less work; as your corpse will be pre-extracted from your car for them.

    Gabriel Hanna (64d4e1)

  26. And guess whose values they assumed? Democrats.

    I only partly agree with your assessment there, Rodney. I really don’t believed they so much “assumed” these democrat traits as they were forced upon them unwittingly. When I was a kid I had five negro friends. They all had fathers and mothers that worked except one his father was killed in Korea. When we had block parties, their families joined us. In the summer we went to camp together and our families had clam bakes. On weekends we all went to church, different churches but church nonetheless. Not mosques, churches. We all celebrated the same holidays, Christmas, Easter, Independence Day. Not Ramadan and Mohammad’s birthday. We all got along great and we were all part of the same America. Then came LBJ and The Great Society and his desire to “keep these ni****s voting democrat for 200 years”. He broke the black family in America and I don’t know if it can be fixed. Then they decided it was better to bring in “people of color” as immigrants. Okay, are they gonna be like us? Now they want to double down on that and bring in “Syrian refugees” which are neither Syrian or refugees. They are moslem jihadists invading as Hijrah and they know it and don’t care.

    Nah, Rodney, people don’t “assume” these democrat traits. They are tempted and coerced into them. Then they become lost.

    Rev. Barack Hussein Hoagie™ (f4eb27)

  27. #27 Supply creates its own demand is all I have to say on that. Democrats supply the tools of degeneracy and many are all too happy to pick it up cuz they are victims (or something). My family never picked them up and we were encourage too by our great and glorious Welfare-Industrial Complex. Just so happens my parents thought it an abomination to be parasitic and whiny to such a generous country and thought it our obligation to work and keep our noses clean.

    Rodney King's Spirit (ab8c0d)

  28. Democrats supply the tools of degeneracy and many are all too happy to pick it up cuz they are victims (or something).

    The temptation laid out by the democrats to partake of the freebees and be “the victim” is strong. Of course traditionally the Devil and his evil is strong. But I also believe they sneak it in on people ever so slowly and ever so insidiously like the proverbial frog in the pot of water. By the time a person, any person of any race realizes he’s sold his legacy for a hand full of beans it’s too late. People won’t give up what amounts to about $40,000 a year in government subsidies and benefits to take a job that pays $25,000 and you have to pay taxes.

    Rev. Barack Hussein Hoagie™ (f4eb27)

  29. #29 Living off the dole is better than any low level job.

    What is lost on the mooooroooons is these low level jobs are what prepares you for higher level jobs for the most part.

    Rodney King's Spirit (ab8c0d)

  30. Liberal professors are leaving the University of Texas because state law now allows concealed carry permit holders to carry on campus.

    Win-Win.

    DRJ (521990)


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