Patterico's Pontifications

8/9/2015

NBC Post-GOP Debate Numbers

Filed under: General — Dana @ 10:23 am



[guest post by Dana]

Untitled-1

From Meet the Press this morning.

–Dana

65 Responses to “NBC Post-GOP Debate Numbers”

  1. Hello.

    Dana (86e864)

  2. Looks about right.

    ropelight (49b88d)

  3. Let’s see, I am going to believe NBC is telling me meaningful objective truth when…???

    MD in Philly (f9371b)

  4. Ben Carson is a good man. Just my opinion, but I can’t say the same about Donald Trump.

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  5. MD,

    We can’t know for sure until the polls come out this week, but I thought this was interesting. I am not vouching for the veracity of their numbers.

    Dana (86e864)

  6. What is striking is they take weeks to cook their sample, so caveat emptor.

    narciso (ee1f88)

  7. I think that is the top of Trump’s support. Carson is a fine man although not a serious candidate for president. Chuck Todd interviewed Rubio this morning and I would guess his numbers are higher than shown. Carly is on the way up.

    She does need to address the HP attacks from angry techies soon. Very soon and put out a thorough explanation of what happened in the Board room revolt at HP. Romney never adequately explained the stuff that Gingrich threw against the wall. Some of it stuck.

    Mike K (90dfdc)

  8. CRUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ!!!

    aunursa (be35b6)

  9. According to the SurveyMonkey’s quick and dirty poll, the top 5 candidates share 63% of respondents, while the other 12 candidates split the remaining 37% or on average about 3% each. Which is close to the margin of error.

    ropelight (49b88d)

  10. If this is right, and that’s a big “if,” then what’s notable about this poll is the absence of any establishment candidates (although Rubio is borderline establishment because of the Gang of 8, but I suspect what made his polls go up was his Tea Party-style rhetoric). This is unexpected, surprising, and very encouraging to me.

    DRJ (1dff03)

  11. Is this a poll or a voluntary survey? The SurveyMonkey credit makes it look like the latter, which makes me think this isn’t a poll but reflects energized supporters. That’s important, too, but not as unexpected or surprising.

    DRJ (1dff03)

  12. Carson is a fine man although not a serious candidate for president.

    Not sure what you mean by “serious” since Carson seems as serious, if you will, as any of the other candidates. I like his presence among the top players in the Republican field, if only because he’s another reminder to various liberals out there that, no, it’s not race or ethnicity (or gender, or sexuality, or religion, etc) that’s most important or meaningful to them. It’s actually a person’s ideological orientation or party affiliation.

    I like that Cruz is getting traction since he’s probably among the most philosophically well-grounded of the Republican candidates.

    Trump, for all his faults, is bringing a brighter spotlight to the Republican field, helping fire up various rank and file but also the namby-pamby fence sitters throughout the US who, even more so in this age of reality TV and iPad media, are influenced by cultural trends. Simply put, Trump makes the “Republican” brand seem not quite so much as — as the saying goes — your father’s Republican Party.

    Mark (a467c8)

  13. The Steve Stifler voter saying loud and clear “I’m back bitches!!!”

    papertiger (c2d6da)

  14. and very encouraging to me.

    In my case, any poll that does not include “Jeb Bush” is a good thing.

    Mark (a467c8)

  15. The Steve Stifler voter saying loud and clear “I’m back b1tches!!!”

    papertiger (c2d6da)

  16. And Pluto is a planet, Dash Hammett!!!

    papertiger (c2d6da)

  17. From Wikipedia:

    SurveyMonkey is an online survey development cloud-based (“software as a service”) company, founded in 1999 by Ryan Finley. You can attempt a survey here – https://www.surveymonkey.com/s/62K3Q6B . SurveyMonkey provides free, customizable surveys, as well as a suite of paid back-end programs that include data analysis, sample selection, bias elimination, and data representation tools. In addition to providing free and paid plans for individual users, SurveyMonkey offers more large-scale enterprise options for companies interested in data analysis, brand management, and consumer-focused marketing. Since releasing its enterprise in 2013, business-focused services, SurveyMonkey has grown dramatically, opening a new headquarters in downtown Palo Alto.

    ropelight (49b88d)

  18. Let’s see, I am going to believe NBC is telling me meaningful objective truth when…???

    Pigshit falls from the sky?

    The nitrocellulose dog safely chases the asbestos cat through the nether regions?

    … I was thinking pretty much the same thing.

    NBC… MSNBC… A connection, perhaps?

    IGotBupkis, "Si tacuisses, philosophus mansisses." (225d0d)

  19. In my case, any poll that does not include “Jeb Bush” is a good thing.

    “Two Bushes in one generation is more than adequate…”

    IGotBupkis, "Si tacuisses, philosophus mansisses." (225d0d)

  20. I just don’t trust polls anymore. I think that there is a quite a bit of “social engineer” types trying to use polls to manipulate public opinion. I don’t have a solution. I just don’t trust folks in the Beltway. At all.

    Simon Jester (0dd00c)

  21. Not sure what you mean by “serious” since Carson seems as serious, if you will, as any of the other candidates.

    Carson is a very nice man but is not informed of a lot of issues that are important. One small example. He thought Alan Greenspan had been Treasury Secretary, not Fed chair. He just doesn’t know. That is no reflection on him. If I had been running a Johns Hopkins department for the past 20 years, I would probably know a lot less about these things than I do.

    When I was in busy practice, I spent quite a bit of time reading history and economics but I still was not ready to run for the House of Representatives. In fact some people wanted me to run for city council. After I retired, I served on a planning commission and met a guy who had been a city official for many years. I was hugely impressed with all the stuff he knew about governing a small city.

    I don’t like professional politicians and think there are too many lawyers in government. But a guy like Coburn, who had served in the legislature, or Barrasso who served in the state Senate, are what I want. Both are doctors but have some background in government.

    Mike K (90dfdc)

  22. what’s notable about this poll is the absence of any establishment candidates

    Indeed. And really bad news for Walker who was invisible in the debate, except for the hard-line abortion stance.

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  23. Guess what? It also says that no one gives a fig about gay marriage or abortion. Except reporters, of course.

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  24. People who still have a chance:

    Trump
    Bush
    Walker
    Cruz
    Rubio
    Fiorina

    Carson’s numbers are OK, but he really doesn’t have the instinct for this.
    Huckabee, Kasich and Christie are too old-guard, and that niche is filled.
    Rand is rather completely out of step.
    The other 6 at the early debate (and particularly Pataki, Gilmore and Santorum) should quit now and have a nice summer.

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  25. I don’t feel I have much trouble figuring out what niche most of these candidates appeal to. The only major candidate I’m struggling with is Ben Carson. Who are the Ben Carson supporters?

    ThOR (a52560)

  26. I would like this “poll” to be accurate: the absence of both Bush and Kasich is precisely the message the establishment Republicans need to be hit in the face with over and over again. I’m not sure it will make a difference, but at least they’ll come out bruised and battered in the end.

    Dana (86e864)

  27. Dr. Carson did not know that the Balkans were part of NATO. Does that matter in the big picture? What’s the threshold for facts at the candidate’s fingertips? I don’t know. That’s not policy, of course, which is an entirely different matter. But I do think there are basics that candidates should know.

    Dana (86e864)

  28. R.I.P. Frank Gifford

    Icy (0aba06)

  29. This poll is “who Republican voters thought won the debate,” not who they intend to vote for.

    That’s a significant difference, Dana, perhaps worth mentioning in an update or clarification.

    Beldar (fa637a)

  30. What, exactly, does Trump “still have a chance” to do? Beclown himself even more than he already has?

    Icy (d352dc)

  31. He just doesn’t know. That is no reflection on him.

    Yea, that I can understand.

    Describing Carson as, for example, “wet behind the ears” would have been more revealing to me than “not serious.” The idea of “not serious” makes me think of a person along the lines of, if anything, Donald Trump, who might say, “pss, pss, I’m in the race to gain some publicity for my next gig.”

    BTW, if skin color matters at all, and Carson’s race therefore has to be factored into his very existence within the political realm, then I’d say his life story is a million times more impressive and even heroic than anything associated with the character now in the Oval Office. Moreover, the screwball aspects and broken-down history of America’s current president signifies a lot more of a “not serious” nature than perhaps what has been true of any of his predecessors—or, God willing, successors.

    Mark (a467c8)

  32. The Balkans include about a dozen countries including Greece and the European part of Turkey and frankly, until you posted that Dana, I had no idea that many of them were part of NATO. I could not name the countries that comprise the Balkans. Now I’m not running for President but I think we should not expect a candidate to know the answer to every question asked even political or geographic. If he did he’s wearing an ear wick.

    Rev. Barack Hussein Hoagie (f4eb27)

  33. What, exactly, does Trump “still have a chance” to do? Beclown himself even more than he already has?

    I certainly don’t want to defend him, but he leads the polls and therefore has a chance to be the nominee. I’m sure the Cleveland hookers are hoping for that.

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  34. Dr. Carson did not know that the Balkans were part of NATO. Does that matter in the big picture? What’s the threshold for facts at the candidate’s fingertips? I don’t know. That’s not policy, of course, which is an entirely different matter. But I do think there are basics that candidates should know.

    Like how to find Zimbabwe on a map before shaking a finger at their recreational hunting policy.

    papertiger (c2d6da)

  35. Dr. Carson did not know that the Balkans were part of NATO

    Pretty sure the Balkans (Serbia, Montenegro, Bosnia, etc) are NOT part of NATO. Perhaps you mean the Baltic States?

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  36. Although Croatia and Albania are now members (2009)

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  37. the absence of both Bush and Kasich is precisely the message the establishment Republicans need to be hit in the face with over and over again.

    I’m currently hoping to see Jeb Bush booted out of the process ASAP. If the choice of candidate representing the Republican Party comes down to him and Trump, and Bush ultimately somehow prevails, I have a sense he’ll do worse in the general election than even “The Apprentice.”

    Jeb is too tone deaf (too much into himself to not understand what his own mother meant when she said — to paraphrase — that America has seen enough of the Bushes) to realize he should have never entered the race in the first place.

    Mark (a467c8)

  38. Pretty sure the Balkans (Serbia, Montenegro, Bosnia, etc) are NOT part of NATO.

    Good dig.

    I don’t know if that poll is doctored, but it sure reaffirms my faith in American ability to sniff out phoniness.

    papertiger (c2d6da)

  39. Dana, my quote above (#27) was taken from the show intro, and I was absolutely mistaken in assuming that Chuck Todd’s opening line from the show intro described the results of the same survey graphic you posted, Dana. Mea culpa maxima! You were right, that screenshot is for the survey’s results on who voters support.

    I’ll try to make amends here for my mistake — but I still think this is still a poll that needs to be taken with enormous blocks of salt, not just a few grains.

    From today’s “Meet the Press” broadcast, at 0:29 minutes in (per my DVR), my transcript of Chuck Todd’s explanation regarding these numbers:

    Nerd-screen time [referring to the big display behind him], and we’re going to look at Thursday’s debates. Because guess what? You may be surprised at who Republican voters thought won.

    According to our scientifically weighted survey among some randomly selected respondents online, through our partnership with Survey Monkey, [displaying a different graphic than pictured in Dana’s post above], 22 percent of Republican voters thought Carly Fiorina won the debate, because of her stand-out performance in the so-called “Happy Hour debate,” not somebody who was on the on the main stage.

    Meanwhile [Todd pointing at other faces & associated percentages on the graphic], Donald Trump came in second [graphic lists him at 18%], Rubio [13%], Cruz [12%], Carson [8%], and Huckabee [5%] rounded out the top six.

    [New graphic, pointing]At the bottom of the “who-won” list by the way, [pointing] Paul [3%], Walker [3%], Bush [2%], Christie [2%], and Kasich [2%].

    Now, we also asked [switching to another graphic]: Who lost the debate? Well guess what? While Trump was second on “who won,” he was number one on this list of “who lost” [pointing to photo of Trump with 29%], followed not so far behind there [by] Rand Paul [14%], Jeb Bush [11%], Chris Christie [9%], and Lindsey Graham [6%], the top five on “who lost.”

    So: Where does the race stand right now? [Switching to the same graphic shown in Dana’s screenshot above] Donald Trump, sticking right there [pointing, 23%] with his one-in-five support, nearly one-in-four now of Republican voters, twenty-three percent. But the shake-up post-debate: Cruz in second at thirteen; Carson at eleven; Fiorina — her highest national poll showing of any survey I’ve seen — eight percent; Marco Rubio, tied with her at eight percent.

    And at the back of the pack, by the way, you’ll see [changing graphic] some former front-runners [pointing]: Bush and Walker [each at 7%]; then you have Paul [5%], Huckabee [4%], Kasich [2%], and Perry [2%] rounding out the top twelve.

    The “blocks of salt” are justified, I think, because I don’t trust NBC News or its polling in general; because I don’t trust that their “scientific weighting” is accurate or even scientific; because I don’t believe their “random” selection is necessarily random or statistically significant; because I think online polling is particularly subject to manipulation and doubt; and, most of all, because I don’t trust self-identified “Republicans,” as projected by that sort of poll, as actually having anything more than a weak, perhaps not even positive, correlation with actual likely GOP primary voters as of today, much less as of a primary season that’s not yet even started.

    Nevertheless: It’s still as interesting as a lot of other garbage polls being tossed around these days.

    I’m also curious whether this poll came before or after Trump’s most recent remarks about Megyn Kelly, or his consigliere Michael Cohen (of “you can’t rape your wife” fame)’s retweet of a Twitter comment urging Trump supporters that “we can gut her.”

    Trump will continue to self-immolate on a daily basis, it seems, so that makes it hard to keep up with his polling numbers.

    Beldar (fa637a)

  40. And Dana, if you’d like to edit my mistaken comment above (#27) to leave an editor’s reference to my retraction and apology for it, you’d have my blessing and thanks.

    Beldar (fa637a)

  41. More info, from NBC News’ website, re this poll.

    Beldar (fa637a)

  42. I’m a Cruz supporter, but I also enjoy the rumpus that Trump is kicking up. He is taking no prisoners, and that is what the left is so afraid of. This is so much more than definable issues. It’s about kicking butt.

    OneForJustice (e77f3a)

  43. No worries, Beldar.

    I don’t know how to edit comments, so it will stand as is.

    But, thank you.

    Dana (86e864)

  44. Kevin M,

    Yes, Baltic States. I couldn’t remember where I had heard that, but I just found the interview. It was when Hugh Hewitt interviewed Dr. Carson. This is a paraphrase of the portion:

    While discussing the threat that Russian President Vladimir Putin poses, Hewitt asked Carson how NATO should respond if “Putin attempts in the Baltic states anything like he’s attempted in Ukraine.”

    Carson said that NATO “would be willing to go to war if they knew that they were backed up by us.”

    Hewitt then asked if the U.S. should commit to going to war with Russia over the Baltic states.

    “Well, if we have them involved in NATO,” Carson responded. “We need to convince them to get involved in NATO and strengthen NATO.”

    Hewitt then pointed out that the Baltic states are already part of NATO.

    Later in the interview, Hewitt brought up Carson’s response again, noting that “it appeared you didn’t know that the Baltic states were a part of NATO.”

    “Well, when you were saying Baltic state, I thought you were continuing our conversation about the former components of the Soviet Union. Obviously, there’s only three Baltic states,” Carson said.

    “Right, and they’re all part of NATO,” Hewitt responded.

    Hewitt told Carson he was worried about his knowledge of geography.

    “What I worry about as a Republican, as a conservative, is that because you’ve been being a great neurosurgeon all these years, you haven’t been deep into geopolitics, and that the same kind of questions that tripped up Sarah Palin early in her campaign are going to trip you up,” Hewitt said. “And so how are you going to navigate that, because I mean, you’ve only, have you been doing geopolitics? Do you read this stuff? Do you immerse yourself in it?”

    Carson said that he’s “read a lot in the last six months.”


    But again, does something like this matter and how much?

    Dana (86e864)

  45. I’m a Cruz supporter, but I also enjoy the rumpus that Trump is kicking up.

    Me too. Besides, I’ve been more irked about Jeb entering the race several months ago than I am currently about Trump.

    But again, does something like this matter and how much?

    It would if Carson didn’t presumably (or most certainly) have an iron-clad brain, which I’m guessing is a wee bit of a prerequisite for any neurosurgeon, at least a competent one. My only concern about Carson or any other Republican, for that matter, is whether he or she is ideologically firm enough—to at least realize that, for example, to have been a liberal over 50 years ago was one thing, but to be a liberal (or typical Democrat) in the context of 2015 is a whole different (and pathetic) matter.

    Mark (a467c8)

  46. Hate to break it to you One For Justice. “Lefties” love Trump. He’s having a grand old time bending the GOP over while playing Archie Bunker in his biggest reality TV show yet, and it is hilarious.

    Passing by (b48921)

  47. But again, does something like this matter and how much?

    For Carson, not so much. For Hillary, a lot. If they asked Carson and Hillary what they would do if the Chinese invaded the Islets of Langerhans, Carson better not miss it.

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  48. Like how to find Zimbabwe on a map before shaking a finger at their recreational hunting policy.

    I once took a history test that consisted of two maps. We had to fill in the country/colony names on maps of Africa, 1910 and 1960. That was a hard test.

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  49. Lefties love Trump because he confirms their Republican stereotype.

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  50. GO! TED! GO!

    askeptic (efcf22)

  51. Lefties love Trump because he confirms their Republican stereotype.

    I don’t think that’s necessarily true since Trump has never been seen as a devout rightwinger, as a stereotypical “redneck.” So, if anything, if he gains some traction among the left, it would be due to his lack of easily identifiable ideological underpinnings.

    The leftist (albeit sometimes contradictory) commentator Camille Paglia puts her finger on an equally good reason why Trump may be pinging the consciousness of not just a good percentage of Republicans, but of various political categories of people in general.

    salon.com, Camille Paglia, July 29, 2015: Our politicians, like our comedians, have been boring us with their canned formulas for way too long. So that’s why Donald Trump has suddenly leapt in the polls. He’s a great stand-up comedian. He’s anti-PC––he’s not afraid to say things that are rude and mean. I think he’s doing a great service for comedy as well as for politics!

    Mark (a467c8)

  52. Balkans … Baltics ….
    Tomato … Tomahto.

    When you’ve seen one ex-Soviet dominated/run hell-hole, you’ve pretty much seen them all.
    Of course, several of the top govt executives in the Baltic’s spent their exile years as professors on American University campii, who have instituted economic policies that we here in OBARYLAND would virtually die for….like a Flat Tax on both business and/or personal income.

    askeptic (efcf22)

  53. There has to be somebody for Lefties to love. What with Hillary running like a rabbit, when she bothers to come out of her hiding place. And Barack Obama, whose secret service will come play Amazing Grace on your skull with wooden baton if you get near.

    Canned programming on their media because the Admin hasn’t sent out today’s official talking points yet. Matt Yglesias their go to guy on the internet.

    Political allies you wouldn’t trust with an itinerary for fear they’ll rob your house car boat kids. Or show up at your event to shout you down because you have the wrong skin tone honkie.

    It’s hell being a liberal. The deserve it.

    papertiger (c2d6da)

  54. I once took a history test that consisted of two maps. We had to fill in the country/colony names on maps of Africa, 1910 and 1960. That was a hard test.

    I recently saw a globe on display, and could pretty accurately date it by observing that it showed both Israel and French West Africa.

    Milhouse (a04cc3)

  55. The pundits are all trying to find some deeper meaning in Trump’s poll numbers; he is speaking for some forgotten segment of the population, he is telling it like it is, or some similar rot. What it really means, plain and simple, is that a lot of republican voters are idiots.

    Roscoe (733710)

  56. And the only reason Carly got the bump is because of her exposure by being
    in the lead off segment. Who do you think those 24 million people were tuning
    in to watch?

    Jeb, Rubio, Carson? who? Come on admit it. Trump is the best thing to happen
    to a Presidential election in YEARS. He’s YUGE.

    Let’s not destroy that by making up something he said just because he doesn’t
    bow and scrape because someone has a vagina. Don’t you all whine and moan about
    being treated equally? If you spend any amount of time with guys enough so
    they ignore you’re there and act like themselves, you’d hear them arguing and
    ragging on each other and making comments that are off color and mean and nasty
    because that’s what guys do.

    If you want equality then you can’t draw lines based on gender or some value of
    gentility that is made up and promoted by the person offended most of the time.

    Get over it. Get going and quit whining like a little sissy.

    Be one or the other can’t be both.

    jakee308 (c37f85)

  57. Ben Carson is a good man. Just my opinion, but I can’t say the same about Donald Trump.
    Colonel Haiku

    You know, Colonel, he raised his kids right. Perhaps his wife had more to do with that than him, but they are decent, modest, hardworking people. He must be doing something right.

    That being said, he’s vulgar, in every sense of the word, and I don’t think I’d want him to be president. Although he could not do more damage than this slick Ivy Leaguer we have now.

    Patricia (5fc097)

  58. It’s nice to see that Ms. Fiorina improved her standing. Even if she loses, I like her as a candidate.

    carlitos (c24ed5)

  59. Ted Cruz and his father. 🙂

    Our host really should embed this picture.

    The highly amused Dana (f6a568)

  60. I had to work and ‘Under the Dome’ had squatter’s rights when I arrived but it is amusing the Elite got absolutely nothing but modest approbation for Rubes from their bucket list.

    GFY Chamber.

    DNF (208255)

  61. That’s the thing, Patricia, I keep hearing how bad a President Trump would be then I gaze toward the dumbass, racist, separatist, socialist radical b@stard we have now and go, Eh so what?

    Rev. Barack Hussein Hoagie (f4eb27)

  62. Separatist?

    carlitos (c24ed5)

  63. Perhaps Hoagie is referring to the sudden Obama designation of Chuck Schumer as a traitor, hardliner, who wants war with Iran, akin to an Ayatollah Supreme Leader leading chants of “Death to America”?

    Problem is if the Ayatollah is calling America the Great Satan, who was it that Obama and John Kerry were treating with?

    papertiger (c2d6da)

  64. Nah, just a screw up.

    Rev. Barack Hussein Hoagie (f4eb27)

  65. OK. Just for future reference, “separatist” doesn’t mean screw up.

    carlitos (c24ed5)


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