Patterico's Pontifications

10/21/2014

Feds Preparing For A “Surge” Scenario

Filed under: General — Dana @ 7:05 am



[guest post by Dana]

Of course, while given the perfect cover of a public very distracted by Ebola, the administration has been quietly working to prepare for an expected surge of immigrants to live and work in the U.S.:

Unnoticed until now, a draft solicitation for bids issued by U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) Oct. 6 says potential vendors must be capable of handling a “surge” scenario of 9 million id cards in one year “to support possible future immigration reform initiative requirements.”

The request for proposals says the agency will need a minimum of four million cards per year. In the “surge,” scenario in 2016, the agency would need an additional five million cards – more than double the baseline annual amount for a total of 9 million.

“The guaranteed minimum for each ordering period is 4,000,000 cards. The estimated maximum for the entire contract is 34,000,000 cards,” the document says.

The agency is buying the materials need to construct both Permanent Residency Cards (PRC), commonly known as green cards, as well as Employment Authorization Documentation (EAD) cards which have been used to implement President Obama’s “Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals” (DACA) program. The RFP does not specify how many of each type of card would be issued.

How big of a surge are we really talking? Consider this:

Jessica Vaughan, an immigration expert at the Center for Immigration Studies and former State Department official, said the document suggests a new program of remarkable breadth.

The RFP “seems to indicate that the president is contemplating an enormous executive action that is even more expansive than the plan that Congress rejected in the ‘Gang of Eight’ bill,” Vaughan said.

In conjunction with this, one should take note of current unemployment rates across the country.

I think we can assume that this indicates the president’s plans are likely to be far more wide-reaching than we originally anticipated.

–Dana

37 Responses to “Feds Preparing For A “Surge” Scenario”

  1. Hello.

    Dana (8e74ce)

  2. Sorta OT: Cali, you win another 100,000 of these cases and there’ll be light at the end of your mausoleum.

    http://thepunditpress.com/2014/10/20/federal-judge-eric-holders-doj-likely-defrauded-company-of-55-million-orders-recusal-of-judges/

    gary gulrud (46ca75)

  3. This prc scenario if it becomes an Obama executive order will affect and change the whole country forever in countless ways. But it will affect native blacks and hispanics, and already legal and assimilating recent immigrants of all backgrounds the most as far as increased competition for jobs, housing, social services, education and political power. It is a shame there seems to be so few leaders in those communities who actually understand this and who are willing to educate their own constituencies about the perils to them of “open immigration”.

    elissa (b9ffea)

  4. Two words: Im-peach.

    nk (dbc370)

  5. FWIW, I had a dream Pestilence rides the bay.

    http://www.the-american-interest.com/blog/2014/10/19/ebola-out-of-control/

    gary gulrud (46ca75)

  6. The upside may be that this move will be the end of the Democrat-Black romance.

    Just what the working class needs: millions more unskilled laborers.

    Patricia (5fc097)

  7. “If you like your country, you can’t keep your country.”
    – Brrrrrrawk Milhous Obama

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  8. The surge–the major papers in Sierra Leone and Liberia are criticizing their respective governments for under-counting deaths to Ebola. The true number they give as 2 1/2 times official reports.

    No wonder our trolls allege the epidemic has peaked.

    gary gulrud (46ca75)

  9. I’ve been saying this for some time: Obama is going to force a constitutional crisis by attempting to use his pardon power to grant unilateral amnesty to all illegal immigrants. I don’t think his power extends to things that are merely status, I don’t think the courts will allow it, and I don’t think the new Congress will be able to avoid impeachment if he tries. But then I thought Obamacare would be struck down.

    Kevin M (b357ee)

  10. Just think where the GOP might be in opinion polls if they’d actually stood up to the Traitor?

    Better than single digits I’d wager.

    gary gulrud (46ca75)

  11. 9. The pardon power does not apply to this, and theer’s no way of pretending that it does.

    Sammy Finkelman (d22d64)

  12. 8. gary gulrud (46ca75) — 10/21/2014 @ 10:45 am

    the major papers in Sierra Leone and Liberia are criticizing their respective governments for under-counting deaths to Ebola. The true number they give as 2 1/2 times official reports.

    That’s about right, but probably getting less right not more right..

    No wonder our trolls allege the epidemic has peaked.

    Well, I say that,. I think the exaggeration now is coming from the World Health Organization, which predicts there could be 10,000 new ebola cases per week by (the middle of?) December – but bases that on the idea of the epidemic spreading to the Ivory Coast!

    One of the reasons for keeping flights from Liberia is to stop that. Ivory Coast has closed its border with Liberia, but that might change if there were no air flights out of Liberia, except specially chartered flights for medical personnel.

    There’d be more people for whom exceptions would be made – and certainly this might apply to many non-Liberians – and they might not get the temperature checks, at least before boarding a plane.

    Like this people who want to leave Liberia go to the airport.

    Sammy Finkelman (d22d64)

  13. elissa (b9ffea) — 10/21/2014 @ 7:27 am

    as increased competition for jobs,

    That’s the lump of labor theory again.

    housing,

    It would seem maybe there would have to be, but experience doesn’t show it. Besides, half the time the government is trying to keep housing prices up.

    social services,

    THEY TEND NOT TO ELIGIBLE UNDER THE TERMS OF THESE PROGRAMS.

    education

    When theer are limited resources More important though, is zoning. Also education is considered an investment.

    and political power.

    They need to be citizens for that. Illegal aliens alreadfy get counted in the census, and the Census might be more accurate

    It is a shame there seems to be so few leaders in those communities who actually understand this and who are willing to educate their own constituencies about the perils to them of “open immigration”.

    Because it is economically illeterate.

    Sammy Finkelman (d22d64)

  14. Sammy–citing “past experience” and what “tends” to be true or what “should” happen, when we are discussing something as bold and unprecedented as is being described on this post by Dana is not very useful or reassuring.

    elissa (b9ffea)

  15. In the “surge,” scenario in 2016

    One question: Is somebody being deliberately obtuse here, or is somebody attempting to misleading the public??

    You know how inaccurate Breitbart.com has become.

    The year 2016 would mean that Barack Obama is contemplating legislation. (maybe he is in denial about its limited chances, but this is about possible legislation.)

    What he would plan to do himself at the end of 2014 would not involve the issuance of green cards.

    What he did till now with regard to “dreamers” only involved the issuance of Social Security cards, not any kind of ID cards.

    Sammy Finkelman (d22d64)

  16. “That’s the lump of labor theory again.”

    Sammy – No, it is not. We have been through this many times.

    daleyrocks (bf33e9)

  17. elissa (b9ffea) — 10/21/2014 @ 11:16 am

    citing “past experience” and what “tends” to be true or what “should” happen, when we are discussing something as bold and unprecedented as is being described on this post by Dana is not very useful or reassuring.

    Remember, also, what Dana is describing (I think) is legalizing people who already have housing.

    Sammy Finkelman (d22d64)

  18. 16. The lump of labor theory is that there is alimited amount of work available, and the presence of more people reduces the prospects for work. That’s not true. There is no need to ration opportunity.

    Neither is this reduction in opportunity caused by more people seeking it, borne out by any historical examples.

    Sammy Finkelman (d22d64)

  19. 18. Let us lead the organ grinders monkey through this lesson one more time.

    Small business has the Borg’s boot on its neck. There is no money to risk, no loans from banks to attract, no consumer to buy a product, 1 in 7 small businesses is successful, aperwork is shredded in State offices,…

    You are a fool if you think anyone listens to your sh!t, moby.

    gary gulrud (46ca75)

  20. “The lump of labor theory is that there is alimited amount of work available, and the presence of more people reduces the prospects for work. That’s not true.”

    Sammy – What part is not true? If suddenly more people can legally work, ceteris paribas, more jobs are not created and more people are competing for the same job openings which does in fact reduce the probability of securing a job.

    This is Economics for Dummies.

    If wages are reduced because of a sudden increase in the supply of labor, that might cause an increase in the demand for labor. Decreasing wages is not something that is viewed positively by Obama’s core constituencies.

    daleyrocks (bf33e9)

  21. The bid issued by U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services can only be talking about possible legislation when “possible future immigration reform initiative requirements”

    That’s a code for legislation.

    Even if Obama doesn’t think it would pass, he would want to show that what he proposes would be practical to implement.

    The request is for Permanent Resident Cards (PRC) and Employment Authorization Documentation (EAD) cards.

    Permanent Resident Cards = Green cards. Obama has not done this and cannot be contemplating doing that.

    I thought that Obama had not caused the issuance of Authorization Documentation Cards but he has, although this also would be given to any temporary (guest) workers who did not become permanent residents, and that’s a strong element of contemplated legislation.

    The legislation also conmtyemplates a long period before many people could become permanent residents, so there would be an increase for that reason.

    The request is for a 5 year period – when they expect to need 20 million cards anyway – (that’s not all new cards) and 34 million if legislation is passed.

    I don’t see where it says a surge of 5 million of those 14 million in one year, but presumably it is somewhere in the documnts, and I will take Breitbart.com’s word for that. But, by the same token, this is about This is about documents that might be issued in 2016. Not in 2014 or 2015.

    Which means legislation and not an executive order.

    I don’t think you can deduce anything from this besides that Obama is comtemplating propsoing legislation. Obama may be planning something, but you don’t get it from here.

    Sammy Finkelman (d22d64)

  22. “That’s a code for legislation.”

    Sammy – Why could it not be code for a reform initiative through an Executive Order since Obama knows such reform is highly unlikely to move through Congress?

    daleyrocks (bf33e9)

  23. theer’s no way of pretending that it does.

    and yet, look at all the other things they pretend, like Wickard and Roe

    Kevin M (b357ee)

  24. Sammy, watch and learn. Mid-November, after losing 11 Senate seats and 23 House seats, Obama is going to start issuing decrees executive orders and ramming far-left judges and other appointees through the lame-duck Senate.

    Then the amnesty, daring those racists to impeach him for opening America to the poor and brown.

    Kevin M (b357ee)

  25. “You cannot deduce”

    Dick Breath hasn’t “proposed” jack in six years.

    Even his constitutionally mandated budgets have failed to garner a vote durning this Congress.

    Buffoon.

    gary Gulrud (46ca75)

  26. Mid-November, after losing 11 Senate seats and 23 House seats,

    It looks like it might be something on the order of 3 House seats and 6 Senate seats, as we speak.

    Art Deco (ee8de5)

  27. There is no money to risk, no loans from banks to attract, no consumer to buy a product,

    Am I misunderstanding you? I think banks have a portfolio of $1.5 tn in commercial and industrial loans on their books and consumer purchases are somewhere north of $10 tn per year. Seems you have both loans and consumers.

    Art Deco (ee8de5)

  28. If wages are reduced because of a sudden increase in the supply of labor, that might cause an increase in the demand for labor. Decreasing wages is not something that is viewed positively by Obama’s core constituencies.

    Just to play the economics grammarian: “demand” would be unaffected; the demand schedule is in the same locus. The “quantity demanded” changes as you move up and down the demand schedule.

    Mass immigration does make changes in the skill profile of the labor force and effects the evolution of wages over time in ways injurious to competing segments of the force. It’s basically bad for low-skill tertiary sector workers. The benefits of immigration accrue largely to the immigrant populations themselves. For the extant population, gains from trade in labor are small (George Borjas estimated them twenty years ago at 0.1% of gdp per year) and sluiced largely to the affluent.

    Art Deco (ee8de5)

  29. Obama is going to force a constitutional crisis

    The courts have already done that by declaring conventional matrimonial law to be ‘unconstitutional’. That should discredit judicial review as a practice, but hardly anyone seems to react to the decay of constitutional law into a long con.

    Art Deco (ee8de5)

  30. The upside may be that this move will be the end of the Democrat-Black romance.

    Coretta Scott King and Barbara Jordan helped put the breaks on a mass amnesty twenty years ago. Today’s generation of black leaders are concerned with intra-party politics and their alliances with Chicano politicians to the expense of the interests of working-class blacks.

    No one ever does a blessed thing for working class blacks (who scarcely benefit from racial preference schemes) that does not involve implicating them in a patron-client relationship. Even then, the programs which benefit wage earning blacks have for the most part been on the books since 1965, 1935, or earlier. The only thing recent is Section 8.

    Art Deco (ee8de5)

  31. “The estimated maximum for the entire contract is 34,000,000 cards”

    ==========

    So, SOMEBODY is anticipating bringing in HUMONGOUS numbers of aliens; to the tune of about 10.5% over and above our current population?

    How and where do I register my outraged objection to this proposal???????

    A_Nonny_Mouse (0f7242)

  32. “Just to play the economics grammarian: “demand” would be unaffected; the demand schedule is in the same locus.”

    Art Deco – You may fancy yourself an economic grammarian, but what I described was a sudden shift in the labor supply curve causing any point of intersection with the labor demand curve to be at a point consuming a greater quantity of labor. There is no issue of grammar involved to anybody who understands plain english.

    daleyrocks (bf33e9)

  33. 27. “Am I”

    You am. Ask me if I give a rip.

    gary gulrud (46ca75)

  34. nk, I don’t believe that the Senate would have enough vote to impeach Ø unless he nuked NYC (and it probably wouldn’t be unanimous even then).

    Roy in Nipomo (8c3b61)

  35. Surge of another sort:

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-10-22/meanwhile-who-quietly-buying-all-cheap-oil

    Hurt Russia and their badazz cohort makes out. Meanwhile Venezuela, Iran, all the African producers, and the Arabian peninsula are hosed. Genius at work.

    gary gulrud (46ca75)

  36. Wealth effect breakdown, right where Mean Girl’s least protected. Picture:

    http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2014/10-overflow/20141022_chinahome2.jpg

    Hong Kong is only the canary in the coal mine.

    gary gulrud (46ca75)

  37. José can you see, by de dong’s early light?

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)


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