Patterico's Pontifications


President Obama: Quit Being Hysterical About Ebola, People!

Filed under: General — Dana @ 9:47 am

[guest post by Dana]

Attempting to quell Americans’ growing concern and fear about an Ebola outbreak here at home, President Obama addressed the issue this morning:

This is a serious disease, but we can’t give in to hysteria or fear-because that only makes it harder to get people the accurate information they need. We have to be guided by the science. We have to remember the basic facts.

First, what we’re seeing now is not an “outbreak” or an “epidemic” of Ebola in America. We’re a nation of more than 300 million people. To date, we’ve seen three cases of Ebola diagnosed here-the man who contracted the disease in Liberia, came here and sadly died; the two courageous nurses who were infected while they were treating him … As our public health experts point out, every year thousands of Americans die from the flu.

Second, Ebola is actually a difficult disease to catch. It’s not transmitted through the air like the flu. You cannot get it from just riding on a plane or a bus. The only way that a person can contract the disease is by coming into direct contact with the bodily fluids of somebody who is already showing symptoms. I’ve met and hugged some of the doctors and nurses who’ve treated Ebola patients. I’ve met with an Ebola patient who recovered, right in the Oval Office. And I’m fine.

Third, we know how to fight this disease. We know the protocols. And we know that when they’re followed, they work.

The president also addressed the increasing demand to impose a travel ban from the worst-hit countries:

Finally, we can’t just cut ourselves off from West Africa, where this disease is raging. Our medical experts tell us that the best way to stop this disease is to stop it at its source-before it spreads even wider and becomes even more difficult to contain. Trying to seal off an entire region of the world-if that were even possible-could actually make the situation worse. It would make it harder to move health workers and supplies back and forth. Experience shows that it could also cause people in the affected region to change their travel, to evade screening, and make the disease even harder to track.

(Of course, it just isn’t possible that putting a temporary hold on issuing visas and instituting a travel ban from West Africa might just benefit Americans more than risking the continued spread of Ebola in our country! And, maybe even keep us safer!)

What one man sees as hysteria another man sees as reasonable caution.

(emphasis added)


124 Responses to “President Obama: Quit Being Hysterical About Ebola, People!”

  1. Hello.

    Dana (8e74ce)

  2. Ooh, he said “hysteria”! Where’s Marcia Clark?

    nk (dbc370)

  3. Well, it’s a relief to know that Dr. Obama does not have any pre-conceived notions and that Czar Klain has clearly been given his marching orders with free rein to do what is in the best interests of the American public.

    elissa (8edffe)

  4. I’ve met and hugged some of the doctors and nurses who’ve treated Ebola patients.

    i wonder how many days it’s been since he did that?

    redc1c4 (a6e73d)

  5. Of course he’s lying. But for the 47% who desperately want to believe him, he’s giving them something to parrot.

    nk (dbc370)

  6. Obola is right, as always… there’s absolutely nothing to worry about, as all the experts agree.

    wait, what?

    redc1c4 (a6e73d)

  7. At the very least, at least slowing traffic between hot zones and here would
    ease the feeling of panic here.

    Don’t we deserve some peace of mind Mr. President?

    Don’t we deserve some consideration for our feelings and opinions?

    Would it really be that tragic and detrimental to put in place a hold

    on any further incoming potential cases?

    This man has yet to do one thing FOR this country. Every action he’s

    Taken since taking office has been partisan or directed at world opinion.

    At no time has he ACTED to reassure the American Public.

    His true allegiance is on display. Look to who and where he heeds in his

    actions to find his lode stars. It’s not anything or anyone American.

    jakee308 (d409c2)

  8. on the upside though, his administration is acting that way, since the new Obola Czar won’t be on the j*b officially for another 5 to 6 months.

    clown cars, all the way down.

    redc1c4 (a6e73d)

  9. Just another presidential hissy-fit. He’s going to ruin the whole concept of being “presidential.”

    Kevin M (b357ee)

  10. Check out this time-lapse Ebola map from Fox. Thank goodness there’s nothing to worry about now that the HteWon is engaged!

    bobathome (08f1fc)

  11. …remember the facts…

    you mean like the fact that we have “Top People” handling this, and they totes understand the virus?

    don’t make me laugh when i’m drinking my morning Coca-Cola… it hurts coming out my nose.

    redc1c4 (a6e73d)

  12. Presentdent Hissandspit

    the First Speeshul Snowflake

    redc1c4 (a6e73d)

  13. If you’ve ever worked in an office (unlike Obama) you’ll recognize this type. They’re the people who never lose their cool no matter how dire or serious a situation gets. When tempers flare or situations deteriorate, they’re as calm as a Jersey cow. Then when you start yelling, they stare at you like YOU’RE the crazy one.

    They LOVE it. They THRIVE on it. It gives them a sense of superiority that otherwise masks what a screw-up they are. That’s “No-Drama” Obama: geez, why is everybody getting so worked up about Ebola, ISIL, and the Ukraine? Let’s golf!

    (Three guesses what Obama’s doing today and the first two don’t count.)

    Eric Lindholm (b675e5)

  14. Several of the Dem candidates who are fighting for their lives in tough races and have called on the president to issue temporary travel restrictions for non-citizens must be doing the happy dance this morning–not.
    I think he just told them Go F themselves and that he is resigned to (or perhaps wants to) lose the senate.

    elissa (8edffe)

  15. HteWon’s right on message with his reassurances about protocols and safety:

    Around the globe, about 400 health care staff have contracted Ebola, and more than 230 have died.” This since start of the current outbreak.

    The 400 include the 16 DWB who are widely regarded as the most proficient practioners of HteWon’s magical frequently evolving protocols.

    Of course, when HteWon stays on message all we really know is that his teleprompter is working.

    bobathome (08f1fc)

  16. I think it is cute how he immediately tries to discredit opinions that differ from his as hysteria. It is his SOP.

    JD (a7659b)

  17. Right on JD. This is what he calls bipartisan dialogue. Not a good way to solve complex problems. Unless, of course, you already know the solution and everything else is just noise.

    bobathome (08f1fc)

  18. Well, he can always plead Boomer. It’s fast becoming a legal defense.

    f1guyus (647d76)

  19. Was that a bad impression of how a president is supposed to sound?

    daleyrocks (bf33e9)

  20. Well, he can always plead Choomer.



    redc1c4 (a6e73d)

  21. #19: Obola is too much of a light weight to ever make an impression…

    redc1c4 (a6e73d)

  22. I love it when you talk to me like I’m stupid, like your voters, Barack.

    More please!

    daleyrocks (bf33e9)

  23. American people to Obama: stop giving in to your own incompetence and buffoonery

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  24. now, here is a story about something that happened in January 2013, just now voming out, that’s worth getting w*rked up about.

    thank goodness the local cops weren’t fascists too. i’m not sure i could count on LAPD being that ethical, especially with a City Attorney that spends their time sending threatening letters to people who lawfully purchase firearms.

    redc1c4 (a6e73d)

  25. Connect the dots, people! President Obama reads VOX. All the answers you need to understand this are right here on Patterico’s blog in adjoining threads.

    elissa (8edffe)

  26. point of order for the mouth breathing, window licking, lead paint chip eating First Buffoon:

    First, what we’re seeing now is not an “outbreak” or an “epidemic” of Ebola in America.

    if it’s not an “outbreak”, why does anyone besides the poor dead bastard have the disease? that, be definition, is an outbreak, as anyone with an IQ larger than their hat size can understand.

    and frankly, Choom Boi, you haven’t done *anything* in the last six years to inspire confidence in anyone except pessimists, because you invariably make any situation you involve yourself in worse.

    this disease outbreak is no different.

    redc1c4 (a6e73d)

  27. elissa, are you sure Obama doesn’t actually write VOX?

    Steve57 (4d34f4)

  28. One person with Ebola is a “case”, two is an “outbreak”; you handle Ebola by containing the outbreak.

    Ebola virology is starting to sound a little bit like Global warming,
    maybe we have a bigger problem if the virus isn’t as lethal and sick people walk around longer with it…
    maybe we have a bigger problem if the virus actually grows faster and in larger quantities…
    maybe we have too many people speculating.

    The linked article says they are using a different type of test to measure Ebola now than they did before.
    In other words, he needs to find out how many oranges are equivalent to one apple before he knows anything for sure.

    MD in Philly (f9371b)

  29. #27: not likely… our #SCOAMF isn’t that bright or well educated. all you have to do is torture yourself once or twice and listen to him when he speaks off tele-prompter to prove that.

    there isn’t an original idea in his water head, nor the wit to explain the ones someone else planted there for him. it’s all ummm and ahhhs and BS catch phrases such as “let me be clear” (which always signals a lie), none of which convey a coherent thought or argument.

    redc1c4 (a6e73d)

  30. I thought hysterical was a sexist dog whistle. Normally Janet Napolitano would be barking somewhere, but she is too busy demanding heterosexual males in the UC system have their paperwork in order before engaging in sex… but what about the rest?

    Since when is blocking entry to West African nation passport holders, for a season, hysteria?
    How does that impede the flow back and forth of American doctors, nurses, lab techs etc
    Or how about just blocking Liberians? Everyone else has.

    Maybe Obama will make Liberia the 51st state

    steveg (794291)

  31. I think it is cute how he immediately tries to discredit opinions that differ from his as hysteria. It is his SOP.

    That’s not true. Sometimes he calls it extremism or racism or simply “hate.”

    Kevin M (b357ee)

  32. ” … We know the protocols. And we know that when they’re followed, they work.”

    = = = = = = = =

    We THOUGHT we knew the protocols. Then we found they didn’t work. Then we CHANGED the protocols. Then we kinda didn’t apply them. Oops.

    ^ ^ ^ ^

    Now we’re on about the 6th iteration of the statements above.

    Shove it, OBumble. (And please-please-please, go shake hands with somebody who recently arrived from West Africa, to prove to us stupid proles it’s perfectly safe. Give the Mighty God of the Old Testament something to work with, willya?)

    A_Nonny_Mouse (d745c5)

  33. *breaks into a cold sweat upon realizing that the nation is one arrogantly contracted case of Ebola away from “President Biden”*

    M. Scott Eiland (15aac4)

  34. i have no problem with “President Biden”…

    lazy stupid people are always less problem than active stupid people like BamBam

    redc1c4 (a6e73d)

  35. what if BamBam is wrong… again?

    6 reasons to panic

    (teaser: they interviewed 58 HCPs for a study: before they could release it, 5 of them were dead from Obola)

    redc1c4 (4db2c8)

  36. red @29, ok. Maybe Bill Ayers or David Axelrod are writing the talking points and distributing them via journOlist to both the WH and VOX.

    Because what you said about Prom Queen applies equally to Ezra Klein. That moron couldn’t consistently be on the same page as Obama unless somebody on the inside is feeding it to him.

    Steve57 (4d34f4)

  37. “I’ve met with an Ebola patient who recovered, … And I’m fine.” Barack Obama

    That’s what you think.

    Ipso Fatso (10964d)

  38. he’s so far from fine it’s on the other side of the world coming on to lap him…

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  39. he should hug more Ebola caregivers I think


    happyfeet (532d1f)

  40. #39
    The Secret service is inept, but they’ll be at your door shortly waving a fake warrant. Call 911

    steveg (794291)

  41. I’m in Utah with my turtle posse

    happyfeet (532d1f)

  42. he should hug more Ebola caregivers I think

    Most definitely, most certainly! In fact, he’d do us all one big, tremendous, wonderful favor if he visited Nina Pham and played tonsil hockey with her.

    He’s expendable, this nation (what’s left of it) isn’t.

    Mark (c160ec)

  43. Jon Stewart (clown nose on) had an awesome riposte to the senator demanding that we stop travel to the U.S. from west Africa. “What a difference 200 years makes in terms of African — US immigration policy.

    carlitos (c24ed5)

  44. Heh! We still haven’t learned from that mistake, looks like.

    nk (dbc370)

  45. “John Stewart” and “awesome”… words one doesn’t normally see associated with one another, much less in the same sentence.

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  46. Oh, yeah, Haiku? “Stewart’s commentary has an awesome quality to it, like the bowel movements of an elephant.”

    nk (dbc370)

  47. I stand corrected, nk.

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  48. there’s a level of category there, you can only get at William and Mary,

    narciso (ee1f88)

  49. A helpful hint for those who are tracking Ebola cases on your home computer, be sure to select the logarithmic scaling for the vertical (number of cases) axis.

    bobathome (08f1fc)

  50. What is wrong with this sentence from the link (redc1c4 (4db2c8) — 10/18/2014 @ 12:45 pm):
    a controlled, informed panic might be in order.

    MD in Philly (f9371b)

  51. Morton: Not bad. Congratulations. Tell me, was it necessary that you kill all of them? I only told you to scare them.

    Frank: People scare better when they’re dying.

    nk (dbc370)

  52. #52, Doc: While ordering their panic, they might overlook the necessity to be informed? Just a guess.

    bobathome (08f1fc)

  53. bob, I had in mind “controlled” and “panic” in the same sentence.
    A controlled, informed, serious effort is what is called for.
    Not feckless panic.
    Not feckless ho hum.

    MD in Philly (f9371b)

  54. We have disappointed The One again.

    I denounce myself.

    Patricia (5fc097)

  55. Another Steyn flashback, might be order:

    narciso (ee1f88)

  56. Doc, this is all well and good, but “feckless” is our EarLeader’s nickname. And don’t forget that logarithmic scaling. The WHO prediction of 3000 by Oct. 20 is already over 8300 … these niggling little details may prove to be of some importance as time passes. Also, from WHO, 21 days is not a magic number. 95% show symptoms by 21 days, 98% by 42, etc. You are just hoping if you think all is well after 21 days.

    bobathome (08f1fc)

  57. Yes, you most certainly can get it from riding on an airplane.

    Our President is revealing himself as ignorant of this important issue. It’s obvious that he thinks it is like HIV, which you are not going to catch this way. But Ebola is not AIDS. It causes the emission of lots of highly infectious bodily fluids, and they can be left on surfaces and remain infectious for awhile.

    He is also showing that he is still in his bubble, utterly out of touch with the population.

    And, here goes his narcissism again – he’ll tell us not to panic, so we won’t panic!

    The panic about Ebola is understandable, even though the likelihood of any one person in the US catching it is miniscule – but importantly, not zero. A lot of people will panic. A heck of a lot more people will be fearful, at significant costs to the economy and discomfort to themselves.

    Obama is a useless tool. I fear for our country.

    John Moore (ac5430)

  58. not to worry, the Puking Buzzards are on their way, and will soon have everything under control

    it’s an NPR link, so the Obola news freeze is starting to show cracks.

    you poor bastards.

    /hand salute

    redc1c4 (269d8e)

  59. bob,
    I think what we have here is a lack of communication, and I’m going to get loud over my computer screen, don’t take it personal, it is reflective of a sense of general frustration.

    It doesn’t matter one %^^&^&%*TGHUU&TTTTYUTTTYR%@$%#$%EE!!!!!!!!!! bit if the quarantine needs to be 21 days or 42 days or 63 days the way things are now being handled.
    And all of the speculating BS about mutations and length of quarantine, etc., etc. DOESN”T MATTER.
    That’s my frickin’ point!!!!

    Repeat after me, “Every previous Ebola outbreak was handled by isolation and quarantine which was made easily possible by the outbreaks being in relatively isolated and sparsely populated areas.” Ebola reaching a populous area, especially where there are poor living conditions and a poor health care infrastructure, has been a nightmare scenario since the disease was recognized40 years ago.
    (We even have had an undersecretary in HHS to oversee how to handle an Ebola outbreak in the US for years, though there has been little evidence of that).

    I said before, at least a week ago if not 2 by now, that the thing that really needed to be done at this point to control the thing was a massive airlift of supplies and everyone in affected areas of Liberia should be made to stay home, probably at least 2 weeks, except for going to a regional distribution point to get food and water.

    The simplest thing that needs to be done, if nothing else, is to get sick people isolated to minimize spread to family members,

    People can write their stories about dueling experts if they want, all they are doing is fiddling while Africa burns, and it will not be contained to the continent of Africa unless it is contained within the continent of Africa, ASAP.

    Now, if you first make sure stringent isolation precautions are taken in the US, with contacts of patients put in isolation for at least 21 days, and respirators for taking care of Ebola patients on vemtilators,
    THEN you can get into fine points or arguing if what we know about Ebola virus after 40 years is still all valid or not,
    but until people are acting appropriately on what we already know, it is all wasted breath.

    The other thing that people should consider, which I did not think of originally but read it somewhere, is that societal collapse and anarchy will occur before everyone dies of Ebola. At some point people will not only be dying of Ebola, but of starvation, and violence over food, and violence over yet another family member not being admitted to an Ebola ward.

    It will take only 1 person from Africa with Ebola to make it to some major South American or Asian city, or some large city in Africa without an immediate collapse at the airport, to pick up the pace worldwide. The way to contain Ebola is to contain Ebola. It’s not being done, and arguing speculators detract from the main issue right now.

    MD in Philly (f9371b)

  60. But definitely do be hysterical about climate change.

    Gerald A (d65c67)

  61. And just what is the problem with the 101st not getting full gear???
    If they are going to be in isolation from the general public building things they don’t need any protective gear, unless they come upon a bat!!!
    Medical people are being deployed, I read, to care for healthcare workers who get ill.
    A limited number of others are to be deployed in protective gear to travel throughout the area doing tests on samples gathered by those doing direct care.

    If that is what really happens I have no problem with it. If nothing else, build enough facilities so there is a cot under a roof, with or without walls, for every dying person.

    MD in Philly (f9371b)

  62. and yes, i believe this is a movement i would miss, were i still in uniform.

    my oath is to the Constitution and the country, not some Third World 5hithole in West Africa, no matter WHAT the NCA says.

    redc1c4 (269d8e)

  63. that has been the point of everyone of these outbreak films, mere plague, like Contagion, zombie, or vampire, society breaks down, they really thought it couldn’t get here, everything gets here, eventually,

    narciso (ee1f88)

  64. #61: quarantine is what i’ve been calling for since day one.

    everything else i’ve poasted has been to prove the failicy of any other approach.

    redc1c4 (269d8e)

  65. If you let Liberia and West Africa die in their own vomit and diarrhea without help, it will be in Europe, South America, Asia, and here. Desperate people will do desperate things to survive, I would, you would. The sooner it is contained, the sooner everyone will be safe.
    I guess every soldier has the option of disobeying orders and taking the consequences.

    MD in Philly (f9371b)

  66. 63. Let’s hope each soldier has barrels of bleach at the ready.

    Unlike HIV, the virions are viable for 3 weeks on a surface and an infectious dose amounts to 1 to 10.

    A score of tent clinics is spitting in the wind. This is another police action, of some value on societal disintegration.

    gary gulrud (46ca75)

  67. “John Stewart” and “awesome”… words one doesn’t normally see associated with one another, much less in the same sentence.

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0) — 10/18/2014 @ 5:17 pm

    If you’re going to insult the guy, you could spell his name right. And yeah, his ratings totally suck.

    carlitos (c24ed5)

  68. #61,63 Doc: I am in agreement with almost everything you say. However, I don’t understand why we sent soldiers (who kill people and blowup things) instead of FEMA. Or better yet, send over the entire Senate, staffers included. But if soldiers are the only ones EarLeader can order to Africa, and you can be darn sure no more than 2 or 3 U. S. Senator would be willing to go, then why the 101st Airborne? I just read a report that 700 engineers from other divisions will also be sent, but why the assault troops? Are they being needlessly put at risk? And I’m not comfortable with your thought that the soldiers are working in splendid isolation. The NYT’s article that featured Michael Lumpkin, assistant secretary of defense, admitting that the whole thing was lot more complex than he expected, also had photographs of soldiers and Liberians working side by side to assemble the frames of tents. I occassionally do little projects with other people, and I can assure you that these men will come in close contact with each other as they are lifting some tent pole or something. It just happens.

    Even people who know what they are doing are in terrible danger. The 58 scientist who tracked down the spread of Ebola in the current outbreak had suffered 5 dead by the time their article was published recently, and the death toll may increase as time passes. Let alone the 9 of 16 DWB who have died after contracting Ebola.

    In all likelihood, these troops will end up being little more than guinea pigs for the half-baked health care policies that the administration is cooking up. And I heard from Dr. McCaughey on the Hannity radio show that we have only 11 beds in the whole country that satisfy this week’s CDC guidelines, and modifying the rest of our hospitals to meet their standards is not feasible in a short time even with very generous funding.

    I think Obama is hell bent on showing America that we can be just as miserable as any 3rd world country given that we are run like one.

    bobathome (08f1fc)

  69. For the three affected countries the WHO forecast early September there would be 3000 cases by the end of Oct. We’re at 9000 a 10 days ago.

    We’ve already lost.

    gary gulrud (46ca75)

  70. I can only discuss what has been said. I don’t trust Obama any more than Ben Carson does (who would refuse an appointment by the president).
    IF the plan is to build facilities ASAP in a foreign land under harsh circumstances are military engineers and not FEMA, that would seem to make sense, but I don’t know.
    For all I know, maybe 101st Airborne is equipped to drop into places and build infrastructure for planes and things to come in.

    Could Obama be sending people there for some other mission? Sure. But I don’t know that.

    On one hand you have Obama and people saying nonsense that travel restrictions would keep supplies and helpers from getting there, nonsense.
    On the other hand you have people thinking we can isolate ourselves from the world while it rots and not face any consequences.

    We can argue about the extreme positions or do something reasonable. Unfortunately, our agreeing about something reasonable will not be of much help either.

    gary, I agree we continue to be way behind the curve on this, and we have already lost a lot, but if we throw up our hands and let Africa implode leading to people leaving Africa one way or another as they can to inoculate the rest of the world, that will not be pretty either.

    MD in Philly (f9371b)

  71. We discussed the DWB data yesterday. 0.5% of their workers have become infected, how many of those are highly trained foreigners (about 400 or so) and how many are local recruits for ?? positions (I think over 2,000) we don’t know.

    MD in Philly (f9371b)

  72. MD,

    Given the disparity between what we have seen and what the administration is telling us, what would be the steps you would like to see take place – and what would be your first priority?

    Dana (8e74ce)

  73. Dr. Kauffman, who works with Samaritan’s Purse, told Judge Jeaninne that his advice re the protocols were not listened to by the CDC

    there are examples of successful containment, but we’re not any of these,

    narciso (ee1f88)

  74. Sending human aid (our soldiers) from the west to Africa help with the explosive ebola outbreak just seems like sending many decent ill-equipped Americans to their likely deaths. Sending aid of food, grain, supplies, construction equipment, and money to these affected countries has, time and time again, been proven to fail because of the rampant corruption there in which the aid almost never reaches those for whom it is intended (Rots on docks, sold on black market by warlords and thieves, etc. There are plenty of stories documenting this even when a medical crisis is not in full bloom.)

    This seems like a terrible problem with significant world affecting results that has no obvious answers. That’s depressing. MDinPhilly, your apparent faith that it can be reasonably contained through work in Africa is encouraging, but frankly I am skeptical. Sending the 101st Airborne into that mess just makes me ill to think about.

    elissa (400341)

  75. 72. I don’t know if this is right. (it may be right taht they made avery low outdated forecast, but it may not right that it is getting any more worse)

    The epidemic actually may be subsiding, or plateauing, anyway, only the news is not catching up to us.

    It may not be expanding exponentially anymore.

    It is no longer doubling every month or three weeks.

    The October 13, 2014 issue of TIME Magazine (which came out Friday, October 3, 2014, two weeks ago, says, in the first column on page 44, in its cover story on ebola: (emphasis mine)

    In Liberia, a widespread education campaign is starting to bear fruit. For the first time, in the week ending Sept. 28, the number of new reported cases declined slightly though the CDC cautions that the dip could be a result of slow tetsing capabilities.

    And I saw some chart elsewhere, and I think the number of reported cases in Liberia was just about the same every week in September in Liberia.

    Sammy Finkelman (c2bb62)

  76. Disregard, MD. I just saw your comment at #61.

    Dana (8e74ce)

  77. elissa @77. “Many…likely deaths.”

    How is that true? It is quite probable there will be zero cases, let alone deaths. How will they get exposed?


    Sammy Finkelman (c2bb62)

  78. Sammy, I am sorry but that question “how will they get exposed” does not even deserve a response if you have any knowledge at all about the conditions on the ground in those African countries.

    elissa (400341)

  79. Already every other kind of medical care in Liberia has collapsed, except whatever is being done by outsiders

    Help in childbirth may have collapsed the most, as a miscarriage or any kind of distress is maybe the first sign of ebola.

    There is chlorine bleach on every street corner.

    Sammy Finkelman (c2bb62)

  80. Pro tip Sammy: Two week old Time magazine articles are probably not your best source of information.

    elissa (400341)

  81. Sammy, you should know better than to believe encouraging reports right now, there is no reason for it.

    In the US we need to get the mindset that says staying home for 3 weeks is reasonable given the potential consequences for those who have had exposure. Every time 1 case occurs that was unexpected makes an additional widening of concern. The CDC needs to listen to DWB and Samaritan’s Purse, the people who have been doing the work, and add respirators for nurses caring for critically ill patients, esp. on vents.

    In my mind, we should be able to send people and supplies to build facilities to house sick people that are not coopted by graft or corruption. Even if nothing but covered areas with enough cots to place the dying would be of benefit.

    There is no good reason why this needs to spread outside of Africa, causing disruption and economic collapse as well as a spreading epidemic,
    but in spite of that being the case, at the present rate that is where we are headed.

    Ebola is like terrorism, we either fight it there or we fight it here.

    MD in Philly (f9371b)

  82. You want the 101st Airborne to deliver babies?

    elissa (400341)

  83. US military doing the construction and overseeing supplies should help insure that things go where they are supposed to, I would think.

    MD in Philly (f9371b)

  84. I think US military should be able to be largely self-contained, I mean, isn’t that what military would do in combat in an unfriendly area with no infrastructure to rely on? If they are self-contained, there should be little risk of infection. Clear and quarantine an area, build a facility, move on after turning it over for those doing the medical care.

    As I said before, simply having a cot protected from the sun and rain would be better than letting sick people stay at home.

    MD in Philly (f9371b)

  85. 81. To get exposed, they have to be near a sick person, probably a very sick person, or absorb something that came from a sick person, and I don’t why anybody raised the survival time of ebola on dry material from hours to many days. It is whatever it has been all these years.

    They’re all by themselves, not in the middle of a city, at the moment building a facility intended for health care workers. And only 1 in every 1,000 – or maybe, if you assume it’s triple and cases are not being reported – 1 in 300 – persons in Liberia has an active case of ebola.

    People walking around are not too likely to transmit ebola. Duncan didn’t, and he was out 3 days after he first came to the hospital. You can very easily avoid sick people or their detritus. Chlorine is everywhere in Liberia.

    They won’t get it.

    It is or was, multiplying in Liberia and Sierre Leoine, but actually pretty slowly. Every person that gets it probably has, or could get, a pretty good idea of how they got it. Not exactly what was the crucial error, but from whom.

    Sammy Finkelman (c2bb62)

  86. The bodies, Doc. What do you do with the dead bodies on the cots that are “protected from the sun and rain”? Who takes care of the disposal of infected carcasses so more cots in the American constructed tents can be freed up for the next batch? I don’t mean to be callous or argumentative, but this whole operation involving our military sounds more like a wing and a prayer than a well thought out, safe, coordinated effort.

    elissa (400341)

  87. Have you all seen this on Instapundit? Our Ebola Response Team:

    nk (dbc370)

  88. 83. elissa (400341) — 10/18/2014 @ 9:23 pm

    Pro tip Sammy: Two week old Time magazine articles are probably not your best source of information.

    I haven’t seen or heard anything else since then that indicates it is still increasing exponentially. That is, data that indicates that. They’re talking about it more, and predictinmg more, but what’s the data? I have noticed nothing.

    I think all the projections are out of date. I haven’t seen any updated information. Everybody’s using the sdame old information. Dated Sept 26, it says:

    The uncorrected estimates of cases for Liberia on September 9, 2014, were 2,618, and the actual reported cases were 2,407 (i.e., model overestimated cases by +8.8%). The uncorrected estimates of cases for Sierra Leone on September 13, 2014, were 1,505 and the actual reported cases were 1,620 (i.e., model underestimated cases by -7.6%).

    This is a report on how it is particularly dangerous to health care workers:

    Sammy Finkelman (c2bb62)

  89. Here we have something dated October 9 – a week after the TIME Magazine article:

    Look at that chart!

    It peaked the week ending September 14.

    There’s a big drop from September 28 to October 5..

    It’s not the international aid. It’s the fact that people are trying to avoid getting infected, and all that chlorine.

    You look at that, and it looks great. It’s encouraging,” says Columbia University’s Jeffrey Shaman, who uses computer models to forecast the epidemic’s future. “Maybe there’s a slowing, which would be a very, very good thing.”

    And Shaman says his models also show a similar trend. For about five or six weeks now, the epidemic in Liberia has been growing more slowly than his models predicted.

    Nobody’s notied that yet. They’re too busy panicking.

    I think it very probably has plateaued – which is not really very good news, because that’s still high, and it could take most of a year to get into the low double digits. It probably would decline more steeply at first – this wouldn’t be a steasy percentage drop in new cases.

    Of course the caveat is: Maybe people are reporting cases even less often than previously. It won’t take much more time to figure out what’s going on.

    Sammy Finkelman (c2bb62)

  90. Liberia in fact has reported a sharp decline in number of new cases in the past 2 – 3 weeks. But according to the officials from the CDC, with the exception of one district (Lofa) where that decline may be real, the decreased numbers probably only are due to inability to trace and document all the cases. Well, that’s what they’re saying. They don’t want to believe it.

    This is like global warming. To make things look like the trend is still continuing, they have to go back further into the past. They talk about total number of cases.

    Now this is still a bad situation, just not one spiralling totally out of control. And having just about everybody in Liberia doing no work, and spraying themselves or their hands with chlorine a dozen times a day is not a good, or sustainable, way to live.

    Sammy Finkelman (c2bb62)


    Look at that chart!

    It peaked the week ending September 14.

    There’s a big drop from September 28 to October 5..

    It’s not the international aid.

    It’s the fact that people are trying to avoid getting infected, and all that chlorine.

    Sammy Finkelman (c2bb62)

  92. Two posts one shorter than the other linking to npr were thrown into moderation. There’s a chart going up to October 5 showing the epidemic in Liberia peaked in the week ending Sept 14 with a realy big drop from Sept 2 to Oct 5. The trend mentioned by TIME Magazine contnued the next week.

    Of course, that’s reported cases, but if the number was really increasing, the proportion of cases that get reported would have to be really going down a lot.

    Sammy Finkelman (c2bb62)

  93. Correction of typo: A really big drop from Sept 28 to Oct 5.

    Oct 5 was lower than the week ending August 17.

    Do a Google search for could ebola slowing down liberia

    Sammy Finkelman (c2bb62)

  94. the way – a vaccine – could be developed in just a few weeks, if you let a cmpany like Synthetic Genomics do it. Treatments also.

    Wikipedia shows a jump back up for week ending October 12, bit still below Sept. 28

    This chart is reported cases per day.

    The WHO insists the reported decline is not genuine.

    Probably wrong again.

    Sammy Finkelman (c2bb62)

  95. Ofuktard thinks that the MILITARY is UPS. LOGISTICS!!! Obama is as dumb as a empty box of TAMPAX.

    Gus (7cc192)

  96. I think US military should be able to be largely self-contained, I mean, isn’t that what military would do in combat in an unfriendly area with no infrastructure to rely on?

    Doc: in any situation, the US military is self sustaining, in that we live off of our own supplies, but the days of a military “living off the land” went out in the 1800’s, at least here.

    in eacetime, the DOD will buy whatever makes sense on the local economy, but *everything* comes through the military logistics channels.

    this means, of course, that every consumable must be either shipped or locally procured, through channels, shipped, received, and distributed through channels.

    the fact is, most of the people in the military are involved in anything BUT trigger pulling. instead they are admin, logistics, maintenance, transport, medical, cooks, etc.

    without all them, all you have at the sharp end is just a few *really* thirsty, tired, dirty, hungry pissed off GI’s with no water, ammo, fuel, batteries, w*rking vehicles or food, let alone fire support.

    fortunately, contrary to what some people think, the Army still has bayonets, so the grunts still have options… 😉

    redc1c4 (cf3b04)

  97. Logistics is the ball and chain of armored warfare.
    Heinz Guderian

    redc1c4 (cf3b04)

  98. Doc, I found that article written by a missionary doctor in Liberia. I hope you find it interesting.

    Steve57 (4d34f4)

  99. NBC has a report suggesting that many people may develop antibodies to Ebola without ever becoming sick. This is based on studies of an outbreak in 1996 in Gabon. They found that 11 of the 24 people who had contact with Ebola patients never became sick and yet they had the Ebola antibody.

    This is obviously good news if it holds true for the current outbreak. But it also suggests that the transmission might be easier and more likely than previously thought.

    Also, in this NYT report that Sammy found several days ago, there was an embedded video showing the state of the relief effort in early October. The video concludes with an interview with a European Doctor who said that his organization was being flooded with donations, but they could not transform this money into caregivers due to a lack of volunteers. The article describes the initial efforts of the U. S. personnel who were trying to make headway in preparing Robertsfield for C-17s and building the first field hospital. The hospital was intended to care for healthcare personnel who become afflicted with the disease. I was not impressed by our effort as described in the article, despite the presence of a Seabee who was working with Liberian contractors to prepare the site for the hospital. Work had to be stopped because the contractor’s rock crusher had engine problems.

    In a previous post I said it would make sense to test those who have been quaratined freqently whether or not they have any symptoms. This could help resolve the source of this apparent immunity if it exists.

    bobathome (08f1fc)

  100. elissa (400341) — 10/18/2014 @ 9:40 pm

    Liberians, DWB, Samaritan’s Purse, etc.
    Liberians need to earn money to eat, many businesses are closed.
    And you can spray down bodies and cots with bleach, which is what they do.

    redc1c4 (cf3b04) — 10/18/2014 @ 11:58 pm
    Well, that is why the military would seem to be a good choice to go into an area as a self-contained and safe unit, in my limited understanding of things.

    bobathome (08f1fc) — 10/19/2014 @ 1:29 am
    I read where many Ebola survivors have been hired to help care for children whose parents are sick or who have died.

    Steve57 (4d34f4) — 10/19/2014 @ 12:19 am
    Thanks. Well, of course there will be opportunists and waste, but that does not mean there are not good people like the doc writing the article, DWB, Samaritan’s Purse, the Goodyear rubber plantation, etc., doing good work.
    I’ve also read about the taxi and ambulance drivers who end up having to drive people back home because the hospitals and Ebola treatment centers are overcrowded.

    MD in Philly (f9371b)

  101. In a previous post I said it would make sense to test those who have been quaratined freqently whether or not they have any symptoms. This could help resolve the source of this apparent immunity if it exists.
    bobathome (08f1fc) — 10/19/2014 @ 1:29 am

    Very true. but you need to have the resources to test well people in addition to the overwhelming amount of sick people.

    MD in Philly (f9371b)

  102. I haven’t any confidence in ‘our betters':

    narciso (ee1f88)

  103. “There is chlorine bleach on every street corner.”

    As well there should be. You ever see what hangs out there, Sammy?

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  104. This is like global warming. To make things look like the trend is still continuing, they have to go back further into the past. They talk about total number of cases.

    That’s an interesting juxtaposition of topics since the people most likely to overstate the supposed statistics of AGW have a good reason to do the opposite with Ebola. So politicians along the lines of Obama want to drag their feet in responding to viral contamination because it doesn’t necessarily ping their ideology and love of political correctness—or “don’t make Africa look like a flop!! No enforcement of borders because that’s xenophobic and racist, or heartless!” By contrast, they want to do back flips in order to exploit “global warming” because that soothes their holy religion of environmentalism and love of further taxing the public to help pay for the nanny state.

    Mark (c160ec)

  105. The more I read, the more I think the UN and Obama and Frieden are making a huge blunder by Westernizing this outbreak.

    No one has answered the question of why this particular outbreak is so much worse than others. I would guess it’s along the lines of the Adventist doctor’s theory that once you break the old ways of dealing with it, you’ve opened Pandora’s box. As well meaning as we are, we are not helping by jumping in a building poorly supplied clinics and handing out money. We have seen the folly of this approach again and again. How is Haiti doing these days after our billions? The same as always: awful.

    And I also believe that the UN’s hysteria these days is all about the money, U.S. money.

    The best advice I have heard for Americans is from the male strippers, who were appalled by the CDC’s non-advice, and who decided to quarantine themselves for three weeks. Like MD in Philly says, quarantine is the answer, especially in big cities.

    The strippers, they shall lead us.

    Patricia (5fc097)

  106. “President Obama: Quit Being Hysterical About Ebola, People!”

    “Hangtown Bob: START Being Hysterical About Obama, People!”

    Hangtown Bob (b09b86)

  107. #108, Patricia: I think you are right about the danger of opening Pandora’s box with the attempt to Westernize the response. Many of us are projecting fears based on Hollywood movies onto this crisis. When EarLeader says we can’t contain this, he is probably imagining zombies rampaging thru cities and towns that can only be stopped by whatever (I never watched the silliness long enough to see just how the armies of undead were defeated … but I think nearly all the zombie movies have “happy” endings.) He may also think this is the problem with the southern border.

    By imagining such things and responding to the fantasies you must necessarily create problems that otherwise wouldn’t exist. Throwing money into Liberia is one example. Throwing money at all the other problems progressives concern themselves with also has the same effect.

    bobathome (08f1fc)

  108. Debbie Poodleman Shultz just called Rand Paul (and by extension, Patterico) a liar re: the 3 foot rule

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  109. Good comment, Patricia. Ironic the strippers not only knew what to do, but actually did it, unlike the medical professional.

    Dana (8e74ce)

  110. #111, Colonel: Here’s a link to Patterico’s definitive analysis of this 3 foot rule, including a link to a pdf of a screenshot of the CDC website … just in case.

    It is regrettable that we must presume that any digital content prepared by the government yesterday is likely to disappear today if events prove the previous pronouncement embarrassing. Worse, it will be impossible for the government to learn from its mistakes. Worse yet, Debbie is the sort of person who would be delighted to pad her retirement pension with a few years as a director of the sort of government agency that is likely to need to erase most of its past activities.

    And the 3 foot (1 meter) rule is a very significant impediment to all sorts of liberal projects. Consider a passenger in a bus or transit train. The passenger needs 3 or 4 square feet for himself, and then he needs a 3 foot gap to the next passenger. Adjacent passengers can share this gap. Thus the geometry is such that every passenger will need a space with a radius of 2.5 to 3 feet. This works out to about 10 square feet per passenger. Your typical school bus has a seating area (planform less driver’s area of 6 or 7 foot length, a center isle of about 1.5 foot width, and a foot of width for mirror and body) of less than 200 square feet. So the 3 foot rule would limit the capacity of school buses to around 20 passengers. They typically carry around 70 kids. The difference would be similar in metro buses and trains, but they don’t require everyone to be seated, so they might find that the 3 foot rule reduces the allowed passenger capacity to a point that it is a real problem in maintaining an economically viable ridership. Further, it would be prudent to freqently sterilize the seats, hand holds, walls, floors and windows. Say every hour or so. And this would increase costs significantly.

    So from Debbie’s standpoint, it’s imperative to encourage people to move along, there’s nothing to see here. Congested inner cities relying on mass (congested) transit are the dream of our future. The solution to all the fantastical problems that occupy the progressive mind.

    bobathome (08f1fc)

  111. 122. Second.

    gary Gulrud (46ca75)

  112. heh, Bob… anything that issues forth out of Pooddddleman Shultz’s yapper should be taken with the smallest grain of salt. The same holds true for the Obama administration.

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  113. No one has answered the question of why this particular outbreak is so much worse than others.
    Patricia (5fc097) — 10/19/2014 @ 8:03 am

    I may be wrong, but I have answered it repeatedly.
    This outbreak got into heavily populated areas before it was identified, and spread to several scattered localities through routine travel patterns of those involved.
    There was no where near enough manpower or resolve to make up for the lack of manpower to isolate and contain the outbreak.

    [Repeat after me…] every previous outbreak was in a relatively isolated and sparsely populate area and was contained by the work of Doctors Without Borders (DWB/MSF) in conjunction with local leaders.

    If anything, perhaps by reputation DWB in this regard was too good. “Ebola Outbreak” in the past meant “DWB will handle it, the rest of us have nothing to worry about.”

    That always worked before with relatively small numbers in a relatively small area. It should have been always realized that Ebola making it to a large and densely populated area was a nightmare scenario. the article I read about Nigeria pointed out that they already had a trained group of over 1,000 ready to deal with a feared polio resurgence, and they were able to rapidly deploy them in the Ebola outbreak and follow up on over 900 people and contain that outbreak. They were able to do that because they knew who, where, and when “patient zero” started the outbreak.

    From my knowledge, DWB is about as leftist as you can get, but they have been successful in dealing with Ebola outbreaks in the past. In the end of June when they turned over the effort in Liberia to Samaritan’s Purse in order to concentrate their resources in Sierra Leone and Guinea, afaik it was the first time any other group handled it.

    Whether or not mutations of the virus have meant anything or not O don’t know, but what I do know is an adequate explanation without needing to invoke anything else.

    Unless there is a huge cover-up somewhere, it should be reassuring that there was a planeload of people along with a seriously ill Ebola patient, and apparently none of them got it, consistent with what we already know. That is not to say that is an OK thing, it’s not, but it argues against the scenarios of increased respiratory spread over past outbreaks.

    MD in Philly (f9371b)

  114. I never watched the silliness long enough to see just how the armies of undead were defeated …

    it’s easy: you canalize them into predominately lieberal areas, and they starve to death because there are no brains for them to eat…


    redc1c4 (269d8e)

  115. Oh, I agree, MD. I just have never heard anyone from the govt admit to densely populated areas as a cause. If they admitted it, they would have to somewhat at least ban travel, right?

    patricia (5fc097)

  116. patricia, I think they have been trying so hard to tell people not to be nervous that any reasonable analysis has been pushed aside. I really don’t know their thinking about no travel ban.
    One of the official people, maybe CDC Friedman, made the too reasonable and telling comment that it was better to let people come into the country in an official way so they could be traced and followed, rather than trying to shut off travel and have people sneaking in.
    Yes, he said sneaking in.

    MD in Philly (f9371b)

  117. #104, Doc: The costs of the blood tests to track the development of antibodies in the 200 plus people who have been exposed to Ebola in the U. S. at this point would be much less than the cost of filling up a C-17 with medical supplies and flying it to West Africa and returning empty. If we were to do such testing, we might learn something of great value. The alternative, flying C-17s to West Africa, will not. Spending our money wisely is important, even if Aunt Yellen can create another $100B on demand.

    bobathome (5ccbd8)

  118. #117, Red: Thank you for clarifying that. It explains a lot.

    PS: Seahawks lost again after brilliant call by St. Louis. UW Women[‘]s Volleyball continues to extend rampage. Stanford continues its dominance. The two will meet in late November. NCAA will have a tough time seeding the D1 tournament to ensure Pac12 doesn’t sweep final 4. Look for 8 Pac12 team in two Regionals.

    bobathome (5ccbd8)

  119. #97, Sammy: I think if you look at the WHO data the underlies the NPR conclusions, you will see that Liberia has stopped reporting “Confirmed”, “Probable”, and “Suspected” in the last few weeks. All that Liberia has reported since Oct. 11th is the total number of cases and deaths. Their Oct. 11th report was the last to breakout these categories, and in it the “Confirmed” number of cases was reported as 931, while “confirmed” deaths were 934, which WHO flagged as a likely problem. I think there has been a breakdown in the laboratory system in Liberia. The apparent decline in the number of cases may be attributable to this. Might I suggest that it would not be unusual for the National Peoples Radio [in Support of EarLeader] to ignore the problems and hype the “good” news.

    bobathome (5ccbd8)

  120. people sneaking in.

    I blame Cesar Millan.

    The open border creeps went shopping for to make a mockery of our already mockable suggestion of a border (if cartographers were interested in accuracy they would present the Southern border as a dashed line).

    The National Geographic could have used Uncle Matty for their dog training show. But they have an agenda to service, so they found an illegal alien.

    Also I blame James Monroe, who as a wee tot inherited a slave plantation, profited handsomely, then as governor of Virginia got his panties in a twist over one black guy, Gabriel Prosser, who sent a tweet out to his homey’s saying “This slavery thing sucks the big one #lol!”
    Monroe calls up the militia, rounds up the “free” slaves of Virginia, (many of the former slaveowners in Virginia, aided no doubt by the decline in tobacco futures, took the Constitution to heart and freed their negros) to ship them back to Africa, hence Liberia.

    Interesting to note that Liberia, set up their own Confederate plantation system, with the former slave African Americans running the show, and the natives doing the labor. They weren’t against slavery, they just didn’t like being on the bottom rung.

    Kind of like President Ebola in that regard. Maybe that’s why he doesn’t ban travel from Liberia.
    His true brethren in spirit live there.

    papertiger (c2d6da)

  121. Good article, thanks.

    Alexander Exe (cdb4b0)

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