Patterico's Pontifications

7/15/2014

Report Suggesting Violence Is Not The Primary Reason For Coming Across Our Border

Filed under: General — Dana @ 10:34 am

[guest post by Dana]

Breitbart Texas has been the recipient of a leaked elite, law-enforcement sensitive El Paso Intelligence Center (EPIC) intel report, which in part – and contradicting the White House and media narrative – suggests that violence and homicide rates in Central America are likely not the primary cause of the recent surge of illegal aliens entering the United States.

An overview:

The EPIC report indicates that the belief among the illegal immigrants that they would receive permisos and be allowed to stay was the driving factor in their choices to come to the United States and that the crisis will continue until ‘misperceptions’ about U.S. immigration benefits were no longer prevalent . The report also states that the migrants cited Univision and other other outlets as having shaped their views on U.S. immigration policy. Another implication of the report is that family members already in the U.S. are encouraging the minors to come and organizing the travel with smugglers. EPIC is a widely respected intelligence analysis group and was initially staffed by the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA).

What is motivating the dangerous trek north:

(U//LES) In late May, the U.S. Border Patrol interviewed unaccompanied children (UAC) and migrant families apprehended in the Rio Grande Valley. Of the 230 total migrants interviewed, 219 cited the primary reason for migrating to the United States was the perception of U.S. immigration laws granting free passes or permisos to UAC and adult female OTMs traveling with minors. Migrants indicated that knowledge of permisos was widespread across Central America due to word of mouth, local, and international media messaging—prompting many to depart for the United States within 30 days of becoming aware of these perceived benefits, according to the same reporting.

(U//LES) A majority of migrants interviewed also noted that they had encountered family units, consisting of a mother and child under the age of 18 during their journey to the United States and that the families had indicated they planned to surrender to U.S. authorities because they were informed that they would likely be released.

A seeming lack of correlation between violence rates in Central America and the current border crisis:

(U//LES) EPIC assesses homicide trends and migrant interviews suggest violence is likely not the principal factor driving the increase in UAC migration. While CBP data from early fiscal year 2011 indicates a steady increase in OTM and UAC migration, United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) statistics— within this same timeframe— show a decline in per capita homicide rates in these three countries; El Salvador saw the sharpest decline, followed by Honduras and Guatemala, respectively.

Untitled-2

Untitled-1

So much more at the link.

–Dana

57 Responses to “Report Suggesting Violence Is Not The Primary Reason For Coming Across Our Border”

  1. Perhaps the overly emotional Kirsten Powers should be made aware of the real reasons. She all but called Dr. Krauthammer’s take on the reasons for/solutions to the border “crisis” a heartlessly ridiculous position.

    Colonel Haiku (9b8fed)

  2. D’oh.

    Kevin M (b357ee)

  3. Where are Chicago, Baltimore and DC on that list?

    Kevin M (b357ee)

  4. The homicide rate in Detroit and New Orleans is over 50 on the same scale. The following US cities have murder rates over the Central American average:

    Detroit
    New Orleans
    St. Louis
    Baltimore
    Newark
    Oakland

    Kevin M (b357ee)

  5. Kevin M – We need state Department travel warnings on those cities STAT!

    daleyrocks (bf33e9)

  6. Are you suggesting that the Obama administration is blatantly lying because the truth doesn’t fit their narrative? To that, I can only say, what difference, at this point, does it make?

    edoc118 (48cd2f)

  7. The high Honduran rate is a recent thing, too. It starts climbing with the election of their wannabe dictator as president and skyrockets after Obama hammers them for trying to uphold their laws.

    Kevin M (b357ee)

  8. There are about five billion people in the world who would love to live in America (even as a poor person in America). We have running water, sanitary food, freedom, free Ki12 schools, and a host of other amenities that make our country one of the best places on earth in which to live.

    This isn’t rah-rah patriotism; it’s a fact that most people wake up starving, oppressed, and filthy.

    Of course people are coming to America because it’s America. But with five billion wanna-be Americans, we have to be selective.

    bridget (714c47)

  9. But with five billion wanna-be Americans, we have to be selective.
    bridget

    That’s just the point bridget, we are not being selective at all. No one other than a natural born American has a right to be here. And no one should be granted entry status or citizenship if they don’t bring something of value to our table.

    Hoagie (4dfb34)

  10. Surprise, surprise!

    Col., I emailed Bret Baier that Kirsten needed to “keep her ovaries out of Border Policy”.
    I also noted that we have had to listen to Kirsten and her friends say for decades that the US cannot be the World’s Policeman, and noted that neither can we be the World’s Foster Home.
    Needless to say, he has not responded.

    As to this report, the reception of it will be the usual:
    Don’t confuse me with facts, my mind is made up!

    askeptic (efcf22)

  11. Honduras: Remember, this is the government that Obama/Clinton forced the Honduran political class to accept after they tried (legally) to remove a dictator.
    More of those damn chickens.

    askeptic (efcf22)

  12. And no one should be granted entry status or citizenship if they don’t bring something of value to our table.

    We could have a bill granting more visas to high-tech workers, physicians, scientists, and other highly-sought educated workers and it would pass both houses of Congress probably close to unanimously, but Democrats know that their only chance to get a few million unskilled and uneducated immigrants into this country so that they can replenish the Democrat voting rolls is to hold in-demand educated immigrants hostage. That’s why the Mark Zuckerbergs of the world are suddenly big on immigration reform: they have been told that they can’t have their programmers from India and Romania unless they agree to support bringing in more day laborers from Central America and Asia.

    JVW (feb406)

  13. These children now belong to america. If we need to get rid of someone get rid of tea bagger conservatives they are evil devils who bring only misery.

    vota (c8d2c6)

  14. And Operation Castaway, out of Tampa, a spinoff of Fast and Furious,

    narciso (24b824)

  15. vota, if the history of revolutionary movements is any guide, ‘tea bagger conservatives” will most likely die fighting for their freedoms, while weasels like you will be sent to the Gulag as Eniemies of the State needing re-education.

    askeptic (efcf22)

  16. “Enemies”
    …not very good today at typing without seeing, and that was hidden under the side-bar.

    askeptic (efcf22)

  17. There is a reason people worldwide still risk life and limb to make it to this amazing country. And no matter how uptight John Kerry gets when he hears about our exceptionalism, it is patently true and why people still come.

    Dana (4dbf62)

  18. Kerry:
    A demonstrated disbelief in the concept of American Exceptionalism should be grounds for revocation of citizenship.
    Let him forever sail his yacht seeking a welcoming port-of-call.

    askeptic (efcf22)

  19. Via the Corner, this at WSJ:

    “Violence is a factor that provokes fear. But it doesn’t make a child go to the U.S.,” said Rómulo Emiliani, 66, San Pedro’s Roman Catholic bishop, who is working to pacify gang-plagued neighborhoods. “The No. 1 problem is extreme poverty, people’s desperation.”

    and this:

    Social workers and migrant advocates in Honduras say endemic poverty, a lack of job opportunities and the desire to reunite with parents who migrated earlier prove greater motivations for young people to leave the country than does violence.”Both of these cites point to economic reasons more than anything else motivating the surge.

    Dana (4dbf62)

  20. @18 This is the greatest country still thanks to liberals and inspite of conservatives! 1776 cons=tories 1861 cons=slave holders 1929 cons=hoover 1940 cons=oppose supporting churchill fighting hitler 1950 cons=house un-American activities committee 1960 cons =oppose civil rights 1964 cons support vietnam war and oppose gay rights 1968 nixon 1986 iran-contra 2001 steal election 2003 iraq war call anybody who opposes it traitors it never ends!

    vota (c8d2c6)

  21. vota – English please.

    daleyrocks (bf33e9)

  22. Hoagie: I completely agree with you. We must be selective, we should select in a way that helps America, but we aren’t doing so.

    bridget (714c47)

  23. Sheriff Bull Conner loosed the dogs, billy clubs and turned the fire hoses on MLK, jr. and the civil rights protestors down in Alabama. Bull Conner was a member in good standing of the Democratic National Committee.

    Colonel Haiku (ee85e3)

  24. Are you suggesting that the Obama administration is blatantly lying because the truth doesn’t fit their narrative?

    The real question is, when DON’T they tell lies?

    Blacque Jacques Shellacque (51809b)

  25. Repubs in Congress supported civil right legislation in far greater numbers than their Democrat counterparts. JFK and LBJ started and escalated the Vietnam War . Get a grip and an education, votaperry. Won’t bother w/rest of your tripe

    Colonel Haiku (0ccd7a)

  26. JVW (feb406) — 7/15/2014 @ 12:28 pm

    We could have a bill granting more visas to high-tech workers, physicians, scientists, and other highly-sought educated workers and it would pass both houses of Congress probably close to unanimously,

    A lot of other provisions would too (like the DREAM act, which now – when not a law, is being blamed for 14-17 year old children from Central amwerica coming here) but it is also being held hostage to “border control” or to reductions in the amount of currently legal immigration.

    Republicans in the House wouldn’t evben vote for a stand-alone military immigration bill. That’s what Speaker Boehner was complaining about.

    You don’t even get to the Democrats.

    And some Republicans oppose even STEM. There’ll be chain immigration, they cry.

    Sammy Finkelman (d22d64)

  27. We already have chain immigration. Why people like vota seem to think, excuse me feel, that somehow every person in South America should be able to just wander in here is insanity. We just can’t provide for that many people. Perhaps that’s what idiots like vota want, to overwhelm the system until the US collapses. If so it sounds like sedition.

    There is no up-side for us to take in millions of illegal aliens especially children. Hell, there’ no upside in taking in millions of legal immigrants.

    Hoagie (4dfb34)

  28. O/T…Anyone know why Powerline is down?

    askeptic (efcf22)

  29. Never mind, it’s back now.

    askeptic (efcf22)

  30. Sammy, OK, you just provided the Democrat talking points, but here in fact is where the GOP was on the issue one year ago.

    Does it occur to you that Republicans reasonably believe that trading immediate DREAM amnesty for the promise of increased border security and a crackdown on employment of illegal immigrants sometime down the road is a lot like Charlie Brown having Lucy Van Pelt hold the football for him just one more time? Is there any reason to think that Obama would do anything more than make a symbolic attempt to control the border for a year or so, and then slowly allow things to go back to normal? This already is a President who has shown that he cares not for enforcing laws — or even provisions of laws — that he is not enthusiastic about, so why should the GOP trust him one bit?

    And while the always cited “some Republicans” may in fact oppose STEM visas, it is equally true that “some Democrats” support open borders.

    The thing about this border surge that upsets the Democrats so much is that it absolutely gives the lie to Obama’s claims that border security is at an all-time level of effectiveness. Obama would have us believe that all of these extra border agents (many of whom were hired during the Bush Administration by the way) are effective in keeping illegal crossings down, but this recent surge certainly suggests otherwise.

    JVW (feb406)

  31. The wall Street Journa;s Political Diary says this is not the first time this happened – it happened during the Bush II Administration with people from Brazil.

    The Bush administration determined that word had gotten back to Brazil that people apprehended at the border would be released and able to stay, so the Department of Homeland Security initiated an operation dubbed “Texas Hold ‘Em.”

    Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff explained the results during a Senate hearing in 2005. “We prioritized the existing space, dedicated bed space and began detaining and removing all of the illegal Brazilians we apprehended,” said Mr. Chertoff. “The word spread surprisingly swiftly; within its first thirty days, the operation had already begun to deter illegal border crossings by Brazilians. In fact, the number of Brazilians apprehended dropped by 50%. After 60 days, the rate of Brazilian illegal immigration through this sector was down 90%, and it is still significantly depressed all across the border. In short, we learned that a concentrated effort of removal can actually discourage illegal entries by non-Mexicans on the southwest border.”

    Of course they had to let people from countries other than Brazil stay in the United States even more than before, but that wasn’t being publicized, and they certainly didn’t spread the news all over.

    Sammy Finkelman (d22d64)

  32. JVW (feb406) — 7/15/2014 @ 2:10 pm

    Does it occur to you that Republicans reasonably believe that trading immediate DREAM amnesty for the promise of increased border security and a crackdown on employment of illegal immigrants sometime down the road is a lot like Charlie Brown having Lucy Van Pelt hold the football for him just one more time?

    I think they reasonably believe it cannot be legislated, and probably believe also that they can never get what they ask for, so why is this any kind fo a condition for any other change in the law?

    The Democrat talking point (per Charles Schumer) is: OK – you don’t trust President Obama to enforce the law – make the effective date of any amnesty January 20, 2017.

    What, you don’t trust any other president either??

    Is there any reason to think that Obama would do anything more than make a symbolic attempt to control the border for a year or so, and then slowly allow things to go back to normal?

    Lets say that’s so. Is that any reason to delay changes you agree with?

    The thing about this border surge that upsets the Democrats so much is that it absolutely gives the lie to Obama’s claims that border security is at an all-time level of effectiveness.

    Border security is. What’s not an all time level of effectiveness is deterrence.

    Sammy Finkelman (d22d64)

  33. “Comprehensive” immigration reform is dead, except possibly as a fig leaf in an overehelmingly Democratic Congress.

    Each item: STEM visas, other education visas, temporary jobs, amnesty, border control, internal control, military related visas – will have to rise or fall on its own merits.

    Sammy Finkelman (d22d64)

  34. A big issue in 2016 will be are the all the people now currently temporarily legal by President Obama’s fiat going to continue to be legal.

    Only Hillary Clinton – maybe – will be able to get away with saying Congress will straighten this out.

    Sammy Finkelman (d22d64)

  35. Hoagie (4dfb34) — 7/15/2014 @ 1:43 pm

    There is no up-side for us to take in millions of illegal aliens especially children. Hell, there’ no upside in taking in millions of legal immigrants.

    The ideas of economists and political philosophers, both when they are right and when they are wrong, are more powerful than is commonly understood. Indeed the world is ruled by little else. Practical men, who believe themselves to be quite exempt from any intellectual influence, are usually the slaves of some defunct economist.

    – John Maynard Keynes

    Sammy Finkelman (d22d64)

  36. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Politics_of_Honduras

    The increase in gang membership was partly attributable to population movements between Honduras and the United States. During the 1980s, many Central Americans, including some Hondurans, fled to the U.S to avoid the violence of the civil wars and general political strife, and emigration continued for economic reasons after that. Other than civil wars, domestic issues endemic to Central America such as high rates of poverty and un-employment and lack of education make at-risk youth more vulnerable to join gangs. In Honduras, close to 30% of the population is youth ages 15–24.[7]

    Many of those immigrants found their children forming and joining urban gangs in cities such as Los Angeles. This phenomenon began to have a local impact in Honduras around 1990 because gang members who completed prison sentences were subject to deportation to their home countries for felonies and immigration infractions.

    These deportees brought proliferation of the two main gangs in Honduras, the MS-13 and 18th Street gangs.[8] In 2004, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security’s Office of Immigration and Enforcement reported that Honduras received 2,345 total criminal deportations. However, it remains unclear whether the majority of these criminals were gang-affiliated or not.

    Sammy Finkelman (d22d64)

  37. #21:

    1861: Dems, slave holder’s party
    1866: Dems, founders and funders of KKK
    1876: Dems, force end to reconstruction and removal of troops from the South
    1877 and onward: Dems, new governments in southern states allow widespread killing of free blacks, confiscate all their guns.
    1880s and onward: Dems, controlling all southern states prevent blacks from voting, deny other civil rights.
    1912: Dems, elect KKK grand dragon as President.
    1954: Dems oppose Republican Earl Warren’s desegregation order, GOP President sends in 101st Airborne to enforce federal law.
    1957: Dem Senators, including most liberals (e.g. JFK), vote down Republican anti-lynching law.
    1960s: Dems, controlling all southern states attack and kill civil rights workers. Resurgence of KKK supported by most southern Democrats. Lynching continues.
    1964: 21 Democrat Senators and 91 Democrat Congressmen oppose Civil Rights Act. Filibustered by Dems in Senate.

    Etc

    Kevin M (b357ee)

  38. #11… well, askeptic, Baier did bring that report up today on the panel, but Mara Liasson was on, not Powers. That was ver astute of you to raise those points. I’ve seldom seen a more classic live demo of how emotionalism trumps logic, common sense and the whole concept of national borders for the Left.

    Colonel Haiku (8cb0f3)

  39. Very, not ver… GD iPhone

    Colonel Haiku (8cb0f3)

  40. #38, damn straight and good show, Kevin!

    Colonel Haiku (ee85e3)

  41. I blame the public schools and ingestion of lead paint for votaperry’s dull confusion.

    Colonel Haiku (ee85e3)

  42. A demonstrated disbelief in the concept of American Exceptionalism should be grounds for revocation of citizenship.

    Except that without a constitutional amendment there can’t be any such thing as involuntary revocation of citizenship.

    Milhouse (b95258)

  43. 38. Kevin M (b357ee) — 7/15/2014 @ 4:24 pm 38.

    #21:

    Number 21 (whoever that is) was talking about “liberals” versus “conservatives”, not “Democrats” versus “Republicans” although it may be true that some of this history may surprise him.

    1912: Dems, elect KKK grand dragon as President.

    Where’d that come from?

    Wouldn’t “racially biased person who grew up in the Deep South” be enough?

    Sammy Finkelman (c33275)

  44. Wilson by all accounts was high up in the KKK.

    Kevin M (b357ee)

  45. But one of the reasons the kids keep coming might be this:

    http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2014/07/feds-to-open-50-million-resort-hotel-for-illegal-children-complete-with-tennis-courts-sauna-pools/

    “The Obama administration has awarded a $50 million contract to a charitable group to buy a Texas resort hotel and transform it in to a 600 bed facility for juvenile illegal aliens.

    The Palm Aire Hotel and Suites currently advertises amenities such as two outdoor swimming pools—one Olympic sized—Jacuzzis, sauna, steam room, two racquetball courts, outdoor tennis courts, picnic area with grills and a fitness center with twenty machines and free weights.

    A luxurious fitness center is on site at the Weslaco Palm Aire Hotel and Suites. Guests can also wind down in the sauna after a long trip.

    Attracted to the space for outdoor recreation at the Palm Aire Hotel and Suites, BCFS spoke of building a soccer field at the hotel and adding a perimeter fence.

    BCFS plans to employ 650 people at the Palm Aire Hotel and Suites, which would mean slightly over one worker per illegal alien child. According to the BCSF Website, the charity’s jobs pay from $10 to $45 per hour.”

    Kevin M (b357ee)

  46. #44: Maybe you are right, Sammy, and I had him confused with Coolidge, who WAS high up in the Klan. Wilson, however, was a racist and a Klansman, and he screen the film “Birth of a Nation” at the White House and openly supported the Klan. Coolidge was worse, to his lasting shame, sponsoring cross-burnings and KKK marches as President.

    Kevin M (b357ee)

  47. Really, Kevin, where did you get that notion about Coolidge, he was from Vermont, maybe you have him mixed up with DC. Stevenson, the klan boss from Indiana,

    narciso (24b824)

  48. narciso and others,
    It is my understanding that one cannot sue the feds,
    but, as I understand it, there are private charities and groups that are assisting the feds in processing and placing the “children”, correct?
    Say one of these individuals commits a crime to a host family, or a member of a surrounding community,
    would there be the option of suing the private organization middleman?
    In other words, having taken fed money to be complicit in this, can they then lose it for being part of a disaster?

    I am not saying that a victimized 14 yo should not be treated with compassion,
    but assuming it is true that some are “not really 17 yo” gang members, I assume they are not all planning on “turning over a new leaf” in their new country

    FWIW, in addition, I heard Rush say yesterday that there are many communities stopping attempts to relocate people like outside of San Diego, but we are not hearing about it,
    because the MSM thought the public would shame the people there,
    but when the public supported them, they decided to be quiet about others,
    as it would hurt Obama’s actions
    whether true or not, I do not know otherwise

    MD in Philly (f9371b)

  49. Kevin M (b357ee) — 7/16/2014 @ 12:26 pm

    #44: Maybe you are right, Sammy, and I had him confused with Coolidge, who WAS high up in the Klan.

    Well, that makes more sense, but I don’t think Calvin Coolidge actually was in the Ku Klan Klan.

    Apparently websites that say they are Klan websites say he was a Klansman. Somebody wrote about it:

    http://jacksonianamerica.com/2014/06/06/was-calvin-coolidge-a-klansman/

    There’s only maybe either the campaign maybe playing arond with the Klan, or the KKK trying to latch on to Coolidge. I don’t find a link between the slogan and the Klan so I don’t know what exactly may have happened. Coolidge may have bene more accused of linking himself to the Klan than actually doing it.

    1924 – the year he ran for re-election, was just about the high point of the second Klan. There was a slogan that year: Keep Cool with Coolidge”

    Which coud also be spelled “Keep Kool” with Coolidge” or maybe even with the initials KKK. The Klan was making inroads in the North, particularly in the state of Indiana.

    Keep Cool with Coolidge also had a plain meaning.

    http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2011/07/keep-cool-with-coolidge.php#!

    This is the song:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IQ5MgFHahTc

    In the Democratic Party, some of the opposition to Al Smith (the Democratic convention wnet on for 103 ballots) was based on the fact he was a Catholic (and the Klan was against Catholics) Another difference was hat Smith was a “wet” (against Prohibition – you may have heard about how many Irish drunks there were – it didn’t break up families, though) and McAdoo had support from the south, which was “dry” The contest was between William Gibbs McAdoo and Al Smith, and McAdoo was a son-in-law of Woodrow Wilson. (They nominated a judge from West Virginia in the end)

    That year there also was a 3rd Party candidate, Robert M. La Follette, running as a Progressive. He had a long career before that, and was responsible maybe for the primary system, plus a whole litany of things, all very populist or endorsed by socialists, but was not a Socialist. He had opposed U.S. entry into World War I and also the League of Nations. He got 17% of the vote and carried Wisconisn and came in second in 11 western states.

    His son, Robert M. La Follette, Jr, suceeded him in the U.s. senate but was defeated many years later in the Republican primary of 1946, by Joseph McCarthy, who was helped in the primary by the Communist Party. (they opposed the younger LaFolette because he was an internationalist)

    Sammy Finkelman (ff268d)

  50. Wilson, however, was a racist and a Klansman,

    Not a Klansman. That would have been far too low class for Woodrow Wilson. He was an intellectual.

    and he screen the film “Birth of a Nation” at the White House

    He was a friend of the filmmaker, and thought it told the true story of teh south, or something.

    and openly supported the Klan. </I.

    I don't think that's right. Openly?

    Coolidge was worse, to his lasting shame, sponsoring cross-burnings and KKK marches as President.

    I don’t think that’s right either, except maybe it could be true for the marches, if they were campaign rallies also, but we better make sure it’s not either attacks on Coolidge from the progressives or attempts to latch on to Coolidge by the KKK (nowadays there is no KKK organization – we;re probably now into the 5th Klan.

    Sammy Finkelman (ff268d)

  51. http://am-hist-01.blogspot.com/2013/09/civil-rights-hero-calvin-coolidge.html

    Coolidge’s support for African-American civil rights was highlighted in the 1924 election. When the Democrats publicly embraced the KKK at their national convention, the Coolidge administration, in the form of Charles Dawes, began to speak decisively on the matter. Dawes, who had been a general during WWI, was Coolidge’s nominee for vice president. As Coolidge’s running mate, and as national candidate for vice president, General Dawes overruled some cautious voices within the party and spoke for the majority of the Republican Party in opposing the Klan. Observers wondered if Coolidge would support his running mate’s strong statements against the Klan; he did. Coolidge and his campaign cheerfully embraced the anti-Klan identity with the slogan ‘Keep Kool with Koolidge,’ mocking the KKK and letting the voters know that they would continue Harding’s quest for civil rights.

    Sammy Finkelman (ff268d)

  52. This web site a;sp says that Coolidge delivered the commencement address at Howard University in 1924.

    Remember, in those years, African Americans were overwhelmingly Republican, and the Republicans in the south were mostly blacks.

    This pro-Coolidge web page says that Coolidge spoke out against the Klan, but I do notice he picked the safer topic of religious toleration (which the Ku Klux Klan was also against.)

    Sammy Finkelman (ff268d)

  53. John Davis, the Democratic candidate that year, would end up being the opposing counsel on Brown v Board, some thirty years later (the one arguing for Jim Crow.)

    narciso (24b824)

  54. While CBP data from early fiscal year 2011 indicates a steady increase in OTM and UAC migration, United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) statistics— within this same timeframe— show a decline in per capita homicide rates in these three countries; El Salvador saw the sharpest decline, followed by Honduras and Guatemala, respectively.

    Fox Butterfield, is that you? *

    It occurs to me that the decline in murder rates could be…

    Because the most likely victims are successfully running away.

    Sammy Finkelman (ff268d)

  55. * http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fox_Butterfield

    Butterfield was noted for writing a sequence of articles[10] discussing the “paradox” of crime rates falling while the prison population grew due to tougher sentencing guidelines, without ever considering the possibility that the tougher sentencing guidelines may have reduced crime by causing criminals to be imprisoned.[6][11] “The Butterfield Effect” is often brought up by James Taranto in his column for the online editorial page of the Wall Street Journal called Best of the Web Today, typically bringing up a headline which displays the effect with the joke “Fox Butterfield, Is That You?”.

    Sammy Finkelman (ff268d)

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