Patterico's Pontifications

3/26/2014

Matt Yglesias Fails Big With Voxsplainer on the National Debt: The First Words Out of His Mouth Are Flatly False

Filed under: General — Patterico @ 3:06 pm

The new Voxsplainer from Ezra Klein’s JuiceBox Mafia team puts a Krugmanesque lefty spin on the national debt. The message: hey, it’s no big deal. The message is undermined, however, by the absurd factual sloppiness of the presentation. Indeed, the first words out of Matt Yglesias’s mouth in the video are wrong:

The video opens with Matt Yglesias telling his audience:

The United States’s national debt is 12.5 trillion dollars.

100% false.

Virtually everyone who follows these issues knows that the U.S. national debt is over $17 trillion. The U.S. Treasury issues daily statements on the national debt here. The latest report is that for March 25, 2014 (.pdf). It lists the closing balance for “Total Public Debt Outstanding” at $17,555,984,000,000, which is over $17.5 trillion dollars.

Of that amount, $4,976,757,000,000 (almost $5 trillion) consists of “intragovernmental holdings,” and $12,579,227,000,000 (over $12.5 trillion) is “debt held by the public.” That latter number is what Yglesias is citing, as you can tell from the chart that accompanies his narration, which has a bar on a chart labeled: “Debt held by the public.”

But the debt held by the public is not the U.S. national debt. And Yglesias didn’t say the debt held by the public is $12.5 trillion. Matt Yglesias said that “The United States’s national debt” is $12.5 trillion. That is false, and I believe Yglesias knows it’s false.

I could spend a lot of time talking about the relative merits of arguing about debt held by the public vs. the total national debt; or discussing the $111 trillion in unfunded liabilities stretching out into the future; or simply mocking the kindergarten presentation of the Vox team.

But let’s not get ahead of ourselves. Before we start a debate, let’s get the facts straight, shall we? And the facts are these: the very first words out of Matt Yglesias’s mouth in this video are false.

As soon as I publish this post, I am writing Yglesias and Ezra Klein and demanding a correction. I suggest every reader of this post do the same. This video needs to be withdrawn and corrected. It is utterly misleading.

Spread the word far and wide.

UPDATE: Prepare for a shock: Yglesias refuses to acknowledge his clear error:

Once again, his words were:

The United States’s national debt is 12.5 trillion dollars.

So he’s weaseling. Raise your hand if you’re surprised.

I see no hands.

UPDATE x2: Aaaaaaand now I am blocked by Yglesias:

Screen Shot 2014-03-26 at 3.53.58 PM

UPDATE x3: Ezra Klein stands by the video in an email to me. Details here.

UPDATE x4: Thanks to Hot Air and to Gabe Malor at Ace’s for the links. If you’re here for the first time, bookmark the main page and make sure to come back!

UPDATE x5: Turns out in 2011, Ezra Klein thought bonds held by Social Security were real debt that had to be repaid. How about that!

72 Responses to “Matt Yglesias Fails Big With Voxsplainer on the National Debt: The First Words Out of His Mouth Are Flatly False”

  1. Ding.

    Patterico (c29bec)

  2. > discussing the $111 in unfunded liabilitie stretching out into the future;

    Is there a word missing here? $111 doesn’t seem like a quantity large enough to worry about.

    aphrael (5cffd4)

  3. I’m more concerned about the Zimbabwe/Wiemar option he endorses.

    Brian Epps (2f898a)

  4. aphrael,

    Thanks. Yes, a missing “trillion” and a missing “s.”

    Patterico (c29bec)

  5. RE #2: never mind. it looks like it’s been fixed now with the addition of ‘trillion’. :)

    aphrael (5cffd4)

  6. Somebody has the day off.

    Kevin M (b11279)

  7. Kids’ spring break.

    Patterico (c29bec)

  8. Matty is not going to be invited to bring the potato salad to the next Mensa picnic.

    daleyrocks (bf33e9)

  9. Without lies, what is The Left left with?

    askeptic (2bb434)

  10. Surely even the morons at Democratic Underground and Kos will watch this and go………….whaaa?

    sybilll (dd956b)

  11. UPDATE: Prepare for a shock: Yglesias refuses to acknowledge his clear error:

    Once again, his words were:

    The United States’s national debt is 12.5 trillion dollars.

    So he’s weaseling. Raise your hand if you’re surprised.

    I see no hands.

    Patterico (c29bec)

  12. Intentionally deceptive is just a damnable lie. Glad someone noted the unfunded liability cliff. This administration has punted on this. Not sure any politician playing with a ten year budget window has the ‘intestinal fortitude’ to address this.

    Just mint some trillion dollar coins…Weimar here we come.

    Nel_Mezzo

    Nel_Mezzo (b13c66)

  13. UPDATE x2: Aaaaaaand now I am blocked by Yglesias:

    Screen Shot 2014-03-26 at 3.53.58 PM

    Patterico (c29bec)

  14. I’m pretty sure Matty’s genius work will show up once more on Twitchy for generous mockery.

    daleyrocks (bf33e9)

  15. Weasels have to weasel.

    SarahW (267b14)

  16. What is the supposed relevance of the distinction between debt held by the public and all debt held by any entity?

    OK, sure, I’d prefer that my own nation’s individual residents, and businesses, held the debt as opposed to FOREIGN entities.

    But debt is ultimately still debt no matter who or what holds it: the more you have of it, the harder and more expensive it is for your nation, or anyone in it, to borrow in the future — and the more of your nation’s (government’s) taxpayer dollars are necessarily spent on interest to service that debt. Taxpayer money spent on interest cannot be spent on either guns or butter.

    Shorter version: It’s not very comforting, in terms of the debt problem, to be told, “Hey, we’re not Greece; we’re more like JAPAN!”

    Mitch (341ca0)

  17. It would be sooo easy for Matt to just add an asterisk or append a note. A note saying that for the sake of clarity there is another number of 17 trillion plus that covers the total national debt which should be considered in any comprehensive discussion of debt–but that he wanted to specifically focus on public held debt in this piece, and then state his reason for doing that instead.

    You’d think he’d want his pioneer efforts in the new venture to be squeaky clean and beyond reproach. He doesn’t have to “admit” to an error if he makes an early cogent clarification. But he and his ilk can’t even do that, can they? Sad.

    elissa (1aca9b)

  18. What I want to know is whether dishonest 5th grade level videos is Ezra Klein’s big new $10 million idea that is gonna revolutionize the news business?

    Lucky Pierre (0ddb17)

  19. Matt hasn’t blocked me yet. I must not be trying hard enough.

    Lucky Pierre (0ddb17)

  20. If Matty thinks our national debt was only $12.5 trillion, why was raising the debt ceiling such a big deal in 2011 and last year?

    daleyrocks (bf33e9)

  21. UPDATE x2: Aaaaaaand now I am blocked by Yglesias

    He completely epitomizes what is wrong with professional journalists. They are so offended by those who dare challenge their authority, and thus resort to lies and obfuscation… Ultimately, it’s because they know that they have been found out.

    Dana (9f8700)

  22. It’s always good to keep the lines of communication open, Pierre.

    elissa (1aca9b)

  23. You’d think he’d want his pioneer efforts in the new venture to be squeaky clean and beyond reproach. He doesn’t have to “admit” to an error if he makes an early cogent clarification. But he and his ilk can’t even do that, can they?

    elissa, these are the kind of people who grew up hearing how smart they were and how everything they did was so impressive and sophisiticated. They floated through college because their opinions meshed perfectly with those of their professors. This is likely the first time they have faced serious pushback, and they have no idea how to handle it.

    JVW (9946b6)

  24. Which number has to be repaid, Patterico’s number or Matty’s number?

    I think we all know the answer.

    daleyrocks (bf33e9)

  25. It’s like Schoolhouse Rock, for the terminally stupid,

    narciso (3fec35)

  26. Everyone knows that debts and deficits are only important when an R is in the White House. At that point the sky begins to fall.

    Yujin (284134)

  27. See that! I am a ‘splainer!!!11′

    Yujin (284134)

  28. Who is the target audience of this Vox start up thingy anyhow? Has anyone tweeted the wonkster Ezra to ask him how he feels about Matt’s piece and his bratty responses? Vox is Ezra’s baby, is it not?

    elissa (1aca9b)

  29. Everyone knows that debts and deficits are only important when an R is in the White House. At that point the sky begins to fall.

    You got it. Furthermore, debt and deficits mean that defense spending has to be cut and taxes have to be raised. And maybe, just maybe, to show we are serious, overall spending will only rise by 8.25% next year instead of by 8.5%. That is the sum total of the Democrat view of debt and deficits.

    JVW (9946b6)

  30. He completely epitomizes what is wrong with professional journalists. They are so offended by those who dare challenge their authority, and thus resort to lies and obfuscation… Ultimately, it’s because they know that they have been found out.

    I should have added, and when one is so insecure and is found out, the only option is shut down those who dare to question. Operating on fear, he is.

    Dana (d65749)

  31. Looks like Jeff Bezos made the correct call on this one.

    elissa (1aca9b)

  32. He’s not a journalist, anymore than RT are journalist, it’s state run media,

    narciso (3fec35)

  33. Shut up, he explained.

    TheMadKingII (5c6cbb)

  34. Looks like Jeff Bezos made the correct call on this one.

    He didn’t get rich by being stupid.

    Lucky Pierre (0ddb17)

  35. JVW, a churlish member of the left would argue that deficits only matter to Republicans when Democrats are in office, and that Republicans think deficits mean we should lower taxes.

    I’m actually pretty convinced that 90% of people who talk about the deficit use it as a stalking horse for things they actually support/want for reasons that have nothing to do with the deficit. :{

    aphrael (5cffd4)

  36. UPDATE x3: Ezra Klein stands by the video in an email to me. Details here.

    Patterico (c29bec)

  37. So what he is saying is that there isn’t a social security trust fund.

    No “full faith and credit” and all that.

    Can’t have it both ways, Yglesais.

    tommy (268031)

  38. UPDATE x4: Thanks to Hot Air and to Gabe Malor at Ace’s for the links.

    Patterico (c29bec)

  39. JVW, a churlish member of the left would argue that deficits only matter to Republicans when Democrats are in office, and that Republicans think deficits mean we should lower taxes.

    I’ll concede there is some truth to what you say, though having been on this site and other conservative sites during the Bush years I think I can safely say that a HUGE segment of conservatives were mad about the inability of the Bush people to bring down deficits more rapidly. Yes, we wanted it to be via spending cuts, but we still stood opposed to deficits on principle. I’m not sure that I see this same level of determination among liberals during the Obama years. Yes, they want higher taxes on “the rich” and they argue that spending more money on healthcare will somehow lower costs in the long-run, but there is way too much Krugman/Yglesias arguing that deficits aren’t anything to get worked up about going on for my tastes. But I acknowledge that I view this through my own pre-set biases.

    JVW (9946b6)

  40. At some point in the future, Americans will grasp the words “Total Present Value of Future Expenditures in Excess of Future Revenue”

    Fiscal Year 2013 P.63

    39.696 Trillion Dollars. This includes future S.S., Medicare, Railroad Retirement and Black Lung payouts to present and future retirees. These funds will need to be paid out, future retirees don’t just go away quietly.

    And take it from someone who escaped credit card hell – interest is the killer. It will devour the necessary parts of any budget. But I survived, learned my lesson, and finally grew up.

    Sad thing is that Americans are the laziest, stupidist people on the face of the Earth. They’ll listen to this idiot every time. Path of least resistance, it’s easier.

    dc (685527)

  41. “Sad thing is that Americans are the laziest, stupidist people on the face of the Earth.”

    dc – Speak for yourself.

    daleyrocks (bf33e9)

  42. I’m actually pretty convinced that 90% of people who talk about the deficit use it as a stalking horse for things they actually support/want for reasons that have nothing to do with the deficit. :{

    I’ll even own up to that. To me, the deficit is a function of a lazy electorate and venal politicians who try to sell the public on the idea that you can have lots of boutique government programs of all flavors and serving all clientele, yet somehow keep taxes relatively low and stay out of the way of job creation. I disagree with those who think we should pay high taxes in order to enjoy a big and active government, but I at least acknowledge that they understand the trade-off. My contempt is for the Republican who campaigns on the need to lower taxes, yet is too cowardly to vote against any reductions in spending, lest he drop four points among suburban married women in the latest Gallup poll. It’s also for the Democrat who insists that all public spending is sacrosanct and needs to grow at an annual rate well ahead of inflation plus population growth, yet pretends that we can just up the tax rate on 1% of the population and it will all be paid for now and for all-time.

    So I guess my real issue is that I think the deficit and debt are manifestations of our comfort level with lots of government spending, without the corresponding resolve to pay for it. As a right-winger, I believe that we will never be able to raise taxes high enough to pay for all the programs that we desire, so the key is to stop offering so much government and go back to a limited vision for what government is empowered to accomplish.

    JVW (9946b6)

  43. I’m more concerned about the Zimbabwe/Wiemar option he endorses.

    For some time, the Roman Empire paid its debts in coin, but would not accept tax payments in coin — labor or goods only, please.

    Rob Crawford (45d991)

  44. Harvard grade inflation illustrated perfectly.

    Amalgamated Cliff Divers, Local 157 (f7d5ba)

  45. Oh for god’s sake, Patterico: to a Lefty, all numbers are morally equivalent. He knows how he felt about the numbers in the clip, and that’s all that matters, you great big H8er.

    smitty (303060)

  46. UPDATE x5: Turns out in 2011, Ezra Klein thought bonds held by Social Security were real debt that had to be repaid. How about that!

    Patterico (c29bec)

  47. aphrael, you are not entirely wrong. However, I think that Obama and the Democrats took things in an entirely new direction in ’09/’10 when they deliberately broke the budget process, intentionally destroyed regular order and refused to pass budgets. I think that their explicit intention was to blow up deficit spending.

    SPQR (768505)

  48. Now let’s see. The major components of “intergovernmental holdings” of US debt are the Medicare Trust Fund and the Social Security Trust Fund. I seem to remember a certain George Bush claiming that the trust funds were just accounting entries, to the general derision of the smart people. Now the smart people say that the related government liabilities aren’t really “real” debt and don’t need to be counted – but if the liabilities aren’t real neither are the trust fund assets, and Bush was right after all! It is astonishing how often that is turning out to be the case.

    Mahon (ac46f1)

  49. Like the government’s lies aren’t big enough.

    And these are the guys that are going to save the Left’s behind?

    Alinsky kindergarteners.

    gary gulrud (e2cef3)

  50. “I seem to remember a certain George Bush claiming that the trust funds were just accounting entries, to the general derision of the smart people.”

    Mahon – It would be interesting to see that whenever you get a chance.

    daleyrocks (bf33e9)

  51. Considering it is such a minor error, I don’t see why they are so butthurt about admitting it.

    wodun (a747be)

  52. It’s not really a minor error. When Obama entered office the national debt was $10.626 trillion. If these guys make a video and say the national debt is $12.5 trillion it doesn’t look that bad.

    And it doesn’t matter if the words “national public debt” are on the graphic. The LIVs watching the video aren’t going to notice, or are going to think the two terms are interchangeable. Like some people think “federal debt” and “national debt” are interchangeable when of course they’re not.

    Steve57 (a017ec)

  53. Another thing that’s misleading is that Yglesias claims inflation is the lowest it’s been in 30 years. But the government has revised the way it measures inflation several times to produce exactly that result. The feds play all sorts of tricks. For instance, when one item gets too expensive they’ll replace it in the basket of goods they use to measure the CPI with a cheaper alternative.

    http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts

    If you scroll down to the 1980 chart you’ll see that if we were still measuring the CPI as we were then, inflation is higher than it was 30 years ago. It would be at nearly 10%.

    This is why you notice a discrepancy between how your money doesn’t go as far from year to year, but the government keeps telling you things are wonderful. It’s a scam.

    Steve57 (a017ec)

  54. http://www.shadowstats.com/article/archived-438-inflation-measurement

    Basically the BLS changed the CPI from what the public wanted, a “satisfaction index,” to what politicians wanted.

    In the early-1990s, political Washington moved to change the nature of the CPI. The contention was that the CPI overstated inflation (it did not allow substitution of less-expensive hamburger for more-expensive steak). Both sides of the aisle and the financial media touted the benefits of a “more-accurate” CPI, one that would allow the substitution of goods and services.

    The plan was to reduce cost of living adjustments for government payments to Social Security recipients, etc. The cuts in reported inflation were an effort to reduce the federal deficit without anyone in Congress having to do the politically impossible: to vote against Social Security. The changes afoot were publicized, albeit under the cover of academic theories. Few in the public paid any attention.

    Steve57 (a017ec)

  55. Yes it’s the old ‘chocolate rations’ from ’1984, doesn’t mean the price of food and fuel, isn’t felt,

    narciso (3fec35)

  56. If debt just “isn’t a problem,” and isn’t “scary” like Matt insists, then why does he exhibit such a stubbornness against being honest with the numbers?

    Steven (83f6ca)

  57. I think in part because Yglesias and Klein are entirely ignorant of the fact that BLS statistics can and have been manipulated. Including the GDP and the unemployment numbers. It’s possible and easy to redefine terms and make these numbers jump and dance.

    I’ve seen Ezra Klein on TV talk shows and suffice to say I haven’t been impressed with his smarts or grasp of the subjects he tries to “tell” everybody else about. I remember one guy was just owning him, and Klein’s fall back position was to keep repeating, “We’ll just have to agree to have a difference of opinion.” I forget what they were talking about, but it was something like “who won WWII” or “did it snow yesterday.” It wasn’t a matter of opinion. But he stubbornly could not admit he was wrong. Apparently based on this video Yglesias is the same way.

    But mostly because they’re Democratic party operatives. Ezra Klein as we all know had his secret journolist to coordinate stories to promote Obama’s agenda. But this was even worse:

    http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/ezra-klein-isnt-a-reporter/

    From JournoList to activist, it appears that WaPo‘s liberal blogger Ezra Klein is once again blurring the lines between being a journalist and trying to sway politics. In what appears to be at a minimum a breach of journalism ethics, Klein spoke to a group of Senate Democratic Chiefs of Staff last Friday about the Supercommittee, just days before the Committee announced its failing. “It was kind of weird,” said a longtime Senate Democratic aide, explaining that while people “enjoyed it” and gave it “positive reviews” this sort of thing is far from typical.

    It goes in circles from there, hitting its crescendo with “his readers need to demand answers from him if they are going to trust the integrity and validity of his journalism.”

    So, no, you can’t trust the integrity and validity of his reporting, such as these numbers. Or Yglesias’ as we’ve seen from these two posts on this blog.

    Steve57 (a017ec)

  58. LOL.

    Even forgetting that incorrect statement right off the bat, THIS VIDEO IS AWFUL!

    The most surprising thing about it was when it suddenly ENDED. I literally laughed in front of my computer, thinking, “that is your ‘explanation’?”

    So: debt seems high, but we can print money, which could cause inflation, but inflation isn’t really very bad now. So it’s cool bro.

    Damn that is embarrassingly banal.

    dan-O (eab4cb)

  59. I don’t follow Yglesias because I’ve seen samples of his writing when other, actually interesting people quote him. Sometimes at length. And I have no interest in ever reading his stuff because what’s quoted is about like this video.

    Ezra Klein, same thing.

    I would wonder how he’s working as a writer, but I’m not surprised. I was listening to a radio talk show and the guest was some guy who used to work in DC for the Congressional Quarterly. When they interviewed prospective hires they’d give the prospects writing tests. Once he had a conservative guy fresh out of journalism school, and a very liberal girl. Neither could string a coherent sentence. They just couldn’t write, so CQ didn’t hire them. A couple of weeks later he’s shocked to learn the liberal girl landed a gig writing for the Washington Post.

    He said just for fun every once in a while he googled the conservative guy’s name to see if he ever landed a writing job but it was like he fell off the face of the Earth.

    Steve57 (a017ec)

  60. I have no dog in this hunt and believe I can be as objective as possible.

    As a high school economics teacher I can tell you for certain that the average man/women (even above average with little to no econ knowledge) on the street who runs across this video will NOT recognize the subtle mistake made here. That is just being honest. Does not mean they are stupid or uniformed.

    Knowing the distinction between “Total National Debt” and “Debt Held by the Public” is really inside baseball for the most part for just about everyone not an econ pro or novice.

    I enjoy reading Yglesias and Klein but they are just wrong when they go to this extreme to defend the language.

    That is my 2 cents. Keep the change.

    Respectfully…

    Gene H (69eab1)

  61. This kind of childish analysis of economics–or the news in general–is what you get when you treat a couple of kids as though they are policy experts.

    Neither of these two have done anything to deserve the reputation that they have as “policy wonks”.

    Their style is appealing to some. That is it.

    dan-O (eab4cb)

  62. Heh! This is the second time I’ve heard of Matt Yglesias, both times here, and again I thought it was Julio Iglesias.

    nk (dbc370)

  63. And I just looked up “Primary Colors” because Klein sounded familiar but it was Joe Klein.

    nk (dbc370)

  64. I think this fits here, but it goes along with the fact that not only did Klein create his JournoList while at the WaPo but he actually briefed Democratic staffers at a policy and/or strategy session about the Supercommittee back in 2011.

    In other words, he was a Democratic activist while posing as a journalist for the WaPo.

    Looks like we have another one.

    http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2014/03/bombshell-in-wapokeystone-scandal-did-the-post-coordinate-with-congressional-democrats.php

    A major development occurred today in the scandal surrounding the Washington Post’s attempt to advance Democratic Party talking points by falsely linking Koch Industries to the Keystone Pipeline. In the unlikely event that you are not already familiar with the story, you should begin by reading this post and this one, as well as the one from last October where I dismantled the International Forum on Globalization report that was the basis for the Washington Post’s story of March 20.

    The facts, very briefly, are these: Koch Industries has no interest in the Keystone Pipeline; it has not lobbied in favor of the pipeline; if the pipeline is built, Koch will make no use of it to ship oil from Alberta or anywhere else; and construction of Keystone would actually damage Koch’s economic interests by raising the price of midwestern oil that flows to Koch’s Pine Bend refinery. The reporters who wrote the Post article that tried to portray Koch as the driving force behind the Keystone pipeline, Juliet Eilperin and Steven Mufson, did not dispute any of these facts.

    …But it may have been even more political, and more nakedly partisan, than we suspected. Today Democratic Senator Sheldon Whitehouse and Democratic Congressman Henry Waxman wrote a letter to David Robertson, President and COO of Koch Industries. The Democrats’ letter was premised almost entirely on the Washington Post’s discredited article; it repeatedly footnoted that article and the IFG report on which the Post story was based.

    …The Democrats’ letter raises an obvious question: did the Washington Post publish its article attempting to link Koch to Keystone at the request of Whitehouse and/or Waxman, or at the request of other Democrats who were coordinating with Whitehouse and Waxman? Given the blatantly political purpose to which the Post’s article has now been put, it is reasonable to inquire into its genesis: was it a Democratic Party plant from the start?

    It needs to be read in full, along with his other posts (links embedded at the site).

    But to cut to the chase, Eilperin admitted she wrote the article for political purposes. And her husband works for John Podesta. Special advisor to the President John Podesta.

    If I can find the video, I believe Sen. Durbin said they intend to run on the Koch brothers. Looks like the WaPo is trying to help them.

    Steve57 (a017ec)

  65. Watched the VOX vid. Visited Vox media. Wanted to leave a comment on their statement that they wanted to EXPLAIN the issues, but they have no method of leaving feedback.

    Utter failure with the goal to explain. Just more liberal horsecrap. Perhaps it’s aimed to inform the average 3rd grader.

    Dennis (00bf8a)

  66. So Klein’s big new idea is short videos spinning facts to support the liberals’ twisted view of the universe? How is this new? Brian Williams should sue for intellectual property theft.

    Mark Johnson (cf4f16)

  67. The 5 trillion that Yglesia is leaving out is called the Intra Governmental holdings which is the money that the Government owes itself. So yes, the debt is 12.5 trillion.

    Modernmedusa (e9b576)

  68. Try to catch up here, medusa, before dropping turdlets.

    elissa (89f75d)

  69. Our new drive-by obviously didn’t watch or read any of the arguments to the contrary. Simply asserting MattY’s assertion does not make an argument. His graphic referenced publicly held debt, but he referred to national debt – not the same thing.

    Why is it so damn difficult for leftists to be honest?

    JD (2f5d3c)

  70. “Why is it so damn difficult for leftists to be honest?”

    Comment by JD (2f5d3c) — 3/28/2014 @ 8:05 am

    1) honesty is not something they value and 2) no one other than center-to-right folks that will call them out/hold them accountable for their ongoing dishonesty.

    Colonel Haiku (36c214)

  71. Could it be said medusa is having intracourse with itself?

    Colonel Haiku (36c214)

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